potatochip
2021-09-09
Both also good companies
[Victory]
Amazon Vs. Microsoft: Two Cloud Computing Giants, One Winning Stock<blockquote>亚马逊Vs.微软：两大云计算巨头，一只胜出股</blockquote>
免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
分享至
微信
复制链接
精彩评论
我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白
打开APP，发表看法
APP内打开
发表看法
2
7
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":889575462,"tweetId":"889575462","gmtCreate":1631164030256,"gmtModify":1631890264834,"author":{"id":3570923041276809,"idStr":"3570923041276809","authorId":3570923041276809,"authorIdStr":"3570923041276809","name":"potatochip","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/279b09d8c5dbf0fd92a959709ef9b5ff","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":13,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Both also good companies<span>[Victory] </span></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Both also good companies<span>[Victory] </span></p></body></html>","text":"Both also good companies[Victory]","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/889575462","repostId":1127517147,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127517147","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631158589,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127517147?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-09 11:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon Vs. Microsoft: Two Cloud Computing Giants, One Winning Stock<blockquote>亚马逊Vs.微软：两大云计算巨头，一只胜出股</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127517147","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nMicrosoft's Azure continues to gain market share in the burgeoning cloud infrastructure ser","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Microsoft's Azure continues to gain market share in the burgeoning cloud infrastructure services market. However, Amazon's AWS remains in the No.1 position.</li> <li>Although the cloud wars are heating up, both Azure and AWS are performing exceptionally, growing at 51% y/y and 37% y/y, respectively.</li> <li>The global cloud services market is poised to grow at a CAGR of ~15.8% until 2030 to become a $1.6T market. Therefore, cloud providers still have a long growth runway.</li> <li>In this article, I share a comparative financial analysis for Microsoft and Amazon to determine the better buy.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69eeb847ac2a68d9068ee3d90ae2ec5c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>微软的Azure继续在蓬勃发展的云基础设施服务市场中获得市场份额。然而，亚马逊的AWS仍然保持在第一的位置。</li><li>尽管云战争正在升温，但Azure和AWS的表现都非常出色，分别同比增长51%和37%。</li><li>到2030年，全球云服务市场将以约15.8%的复合年增长率增长，成为一个价值1.6 T美元的市场。因此，云提供商还有很长的增长跑道。</li><li>在这篇文章中，我分享了微软和亚马逊的比较财务分析，以确定更好的购买方式。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>奇普·索莫德维拉/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) are competing for the coveted No.1 spot in the cloud infrastructure services market, which is projected to grow from $325B in 2021 to $1,620B (or $1.6T) by 2030, according to areportby Allied Market Research. In Q2, Amazon's AWS revenues grew at 37% year-over-year (marked acceleration) as it continues to lead the cloud infrastructure services market with a 31% market share. However, Microsoft's Azure is outpacing AWS's growth and now commands a market share of 22%.</p><p><blockquote>微软(MSFT)和亚马逊(AMZN)正在争夺云基础设施服务市场令人垂涎的第一名位置，根据Allied Market的报告，预计到2030年，该市场将从2021年的$325B增长到$1,620B（或$1.6 T）研究。第二季度，亚马逊的AWS收入同比增长37%（显着加速），继续以31%的市场份额引领云基础设施服务市场。然而，微软的Azure正在超过AWS的增长，目前占据22%的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60b929cfb3eb06a50b14a942b980bd8d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: canalys.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：canalys.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the last year or so, the coronavirus pandemic has led to increased cloud infrastructure services spending as workload migration and cloud-native application development accelerated. Naturally, Azure and AWS have emerged as prime beneficiaries of this transformational shift toward the cloud. Although the coronavirus pandemic has receded in previous months, businesses have continued to embrace the cloud, as evidenced by the $5B sequential (q/q) growth in cloud infrastructure services spending in Q2 2021.</p><p><blockquote>在过去一年左右的时间里，随着工作负载迁移和云原生应用程序开发的加速，冠状病毒疫情导致云基础设施服务支出增加。自然，Azure和AWS已经成为这种向云转型的主要受益者。尽管冠状病毒疫情在前几个月已经消退，但企业仍在继续拥抱云，2021年Q2云基础设施服务支出环比增长50亿美元就证明了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab77f327d4b4f980b703dd05a727a8fd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: canalys.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：canalys.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Both Microsoft and Amazon are well-diversified big tech giants. However, the cloud opportunity is critical to their future successes. Today, Microsoft's Intelligent Cloud business makes up nearly ~37% of total revenues and ~40% of Microsoft's operating income, and these figures are expected to grow even further in the coming years. In relation to Amazon, AWS's revenues are a small fraction (13% in Q2 2021) of total sales. However, AWS contributes the majority of Amazon's operating income (~60%). And so, I'm not surprised with how ugly this battle is turning out to be. In recent times, we have witnessed dramatic instances such as Amazon's lawsuit for the $10B Jedi contract being awarded to Microsoft,Microsoft's protest to Government Accountability Office in relation to the $10B NSA contract awarded to Amazon, and a top AWS executive - Charlie Bell (once expected to be a successor to Andy Jassy as AWS CEO) -moving over to Microsoft. The competition between Amazon and Microsoft is fearsome. However, I can see ample room for multiple winners in the cloud services market.</p><p><blockquote>微软和亚马逊都是多元化的大型科技巨头。然而，云机遇对他们未来的成功至关重要。如今，微软的智能云业务占总收入的近37%，占微软营业收入的约40%，预计这些数字在未来几年将进一步增长。与亚马逊相比，AWS的收入仅占总销售额的一小部分（2021年第二季度为13%）。然而，AWS贡献了亚马逊的大部分营业收入（约60%）。所以，我对这场战斗变得如此丑陋并不感到惊讶。最近，我们目睹了一些戏剧性的事件，如亚马逊就授予微软的100亿美元Jedi合同提起诉讼，微软就授予亚马逊的100亿美元NSA合同向政府问责办公室提出抗议，以及AWS高管Charlie Bell（曾有望接替Andy Jassy担任AWS首席执行官）搬到微软。亚马逊和微软之间的竞争是可怕的。然而，我可以看到云服务市场有足够的空间容纳多个赢家。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7fd2cfae285856cb75e5ced740ef320\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"310\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Allied Market Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：联合市场研究</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With massive cloud services growth on the horizon, I expect both Microsoft and Amazon to deliver double-digit revenue growth over the coming decade. Several analysts have projected the cloud services business to become a commodity. However, profitability metrics for AWS and Microsoft's Intelligent Cloud show that it's clearly not a commodity business (at least for now). Azure has been gaining ground on AWS, but it's too soon to tell which of these tech titans will lead the cloud services market over the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>随着云服务的大规模增长，我预计微软和亚马逊在未来十年都将实现两位数的收入增长。一些分析师预计云服务业务将成为一种商品。然而，AWS和微软智能云的盈利指标显示，它显然不是一项商品业务（至少目前如此）。Azure一直在AWS上取得进展，但现在判断这些科技巨头中哪一家将在未来几年引领云服务市场还为时过早。</blockquote></p><p> Over the last 12 months, Microsoft has significantly outperformed Amazon in terms of creating shareholder wealth, as can be observed in the chart below. I attribute Microsoft's outperformance to a multitude of factors, including but not limited to stronger momentum in the cloud, the existence of a massive capital return program, and robust free cash flow generation.</p><p><blockquote>在过去12个月中，微软在创造股东财富方面的表现明显优于亚马逊，如下图所示。我将微软的优异表现归因于多种因素，包括但不限于云计算的强劲势头、大规模资本回报计划的存在以及强劲的自由现金流生成。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a47beb283bcc911ba9ad25c4c2c01f91\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In today's article, I will share a comparative financial analysis to determine the better buy among Microsoft and Amazon. Furthermore, we will estimate the fair value and expected returns for both of these blue-chip companies based on the financial statement analysis conducted in this note.</p><p><blockquote>在今天的文章中，我将分享一个比较财务分析，以确定微软和亚马逊之间更好的购买方式。此外，我们将根据本附注中进行的财务报表分析估计这两家蓝筹公司的公允价值和预期回报。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Comparative Financial Analysis: Microsoft vs. Amazon</b></p><p><blockquote><b>比较财务分析：微软与亚马逊</b></blockquote></p><p> I think it's too early to call the cloud services market, and the winners will only be evident in due time. However, it's very likely that Amazon and Microsoft will be dominating this market in 2031. Now, Amazon and Microsoft may be competitors in the cloud, but they happen to be two very different companies with varied core competencies: Amazon - e-commerce, Microsoft - business, and consumer software. Let's carry out a comparative financial analysis to determine the better buy among Microsoft and Amazon.</p><p><blockquote>我认为现在看涨期权云服务市场还为时过早，赢家只有在适当的时候才会显现出来。然而，亚马逊和微软很可能会在2031年主导这个市场。现在，亚马逊和微软可能是云领域的竞争对手，但它们恰好是两家截然不同的公司，拥有不同的核心竞争力：亚马逊——电子商务、微软——商业和消费软件。让我们进行一个比较财务分析，以确定微软和亚马逊之间更好的购买方式。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d675b34f8dc1b88db5722fa7be591b9f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"478\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In essence, Microsoft is a high-margin software and services business, while Amazon is a low-margin retail business with some higher-margin business lines such as AWS and Advertising. Since both Amazon and Microsoft are over-covered stocks, I don't think discussing their revenue mix would be of much value. However, let's look at the free cash flow generation of these blue-chip giants to understand their current business momentum.</p><p><blockquote>本质上，微软是一个高利润的软件和服务业务，而亚马逊是一个低利润的零售业务，拥有一些更高利润的业务线，如AWS和广告。由于亚马逊和微软都是被过度覆盖的股票，我认为讨论它们的收入组合没有多大价值。然而，让我们看看这些蓝筹巨头的自由现金流生成情况，以了解他们目前的业务势头。</blockquote></p><p> After receiving a massive pandemic boost, Amazon's free cash flows have turned negative in the last two quarters as the company invests massive amounts of capital (capex spending) in driving future revenue growth. In Q2, Amazon missed revenue estimates by ~$2B, which is further evidence of Amazon losing business momentum. On the other hand, Microsoft's business momentum remained strong in Q2 as the company beat revenue expectations by ~$2B while generating record amounts of free cash flow over the last 12 months. Therefore, it's fair to say that Microsoft is outperforming Amazon for the time being.</p><p><blockquote>在受到大流行的巨大提振后，亚马逊的自由现金流在过去两个季度转为负值，因为该公司投入了大量资本（capex支出）来推动未来的收入增长。第二季度，亚马逊的收入低于预期约20亿美元，这进一步证明亚马逊正在失去业务动力。另一方面，微软第二季度的业务势头依然强劲，该公司的收入超出预期约20亿美元，同时在过去12个月内产生了创纪录的自由现金流。因此，可以公平地说，微软的表现暂时优于亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ed96043009b5528ed09d4e736d1833d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"446\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At the end of Q2, Microsoft had nearly $130B of cash and short-term investments on its balance sheet vs. financial debt of $58B (down from ~$90B debt in Dec'17). Over the last five years, Amazon's cash reserves have been building up, which now stand at ~$90B. However, the e-commerce giant has been increasing its debt load too, which has grown to $50B in Q2 2021.</p><p><blockquote>截至第二季度末，微软的资产负债表上有近130B美元的现金和短期投资，而金融债务为58B美元（低于17年12月的约90B美元债务）。在过去的五年里，亚马逊的现金储备一直在增加，目前约为90B美元。然而，这家电子商务巨头的债务负担也在增加，2021年第二季度已增至500亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f8f27effc87360acc99c52dadd22af3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"446\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In terms of balance sheet strength, Microsoft is clearly in a better position compared to Amazon. Moreover, Microsoft's free cash flow generation is superior to Amazon right now. As you can see below, Microsoft is using its financial strength to execute a massive capital return program that consists of stock buybacks and dividends. Although Amazon lacks a capital return program today, it's only a matter of time before Amazon boasts one of the largest capital return programs among big tech companies. Therefore, Microsoft's advantage in this department may be short lived.</p><p><blockquote>就资产负债表实力而言，与亚马逊相比，微软显然处于更有利的地位。此外，微软目前的自由现金流生成量优于亚马逊。如下图所示，微软正在利用其财务实力执行一项大规模资本回报计划，其中包括股票回购和股息。尽管亚马逊目前缺乏资本回报计划，但亚马逊拥有大型科技公司中最大的资本回报计划之一只是时间问题。因此，微软在这一部门的优势可能是短暂的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef388b2cab13ed222ddf2ba53ad6067f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"446\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While Microsoft returns the majority of its operational cash flows back to shareholders, Amazon is investing billions of dollars to drive future revenue (and, by extension, free cash flow) growth. In my opinion, Amazon will continue to outpace Microsoft's revenue growth over the next decade. As Amazon's faster-growing, higher-margin business lines, AWS and Advertising, contribute a larger share of Amazon's revenues over the coming years, its margins are expected to head higher. Hence, Amazon possesses the greater potential for revenue growth and margin expansion compared to Microsoft. To learn more about AWS and Amazon's Ads business, you may read the following notes:</p><p><blockquote>虽然微软将大部分运营现金流返还给股东，但亚马逊正在投资数十亿美元来推动未来收入（以及自由现金流）的增长。在我看来，未来十年，亚马逊的收入增长将继续超过微软。随着亚马逊增长更快、利润率更高的业务线AWS和广告在未来几年为亚马逊的收入贡献了更大的份额，预计其利润率将会上升。因此，与微软相比，亚马逊拥有更大的收入增长和利润率扩张潜力。要了解有关AWS和亚马逊广告业务的更多信息，您可以阅读以下说明：</blockquote></p><p> <ol> <li>Amazon Web Services - Amazon: Here's What You Should Be Monitoring</li> <li>Digital Ads - Amazon: The 'Other' Segment May Be Worth More Than AWS</li> </ol> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18e9ff96d611913db9e45fbff0cc34ab\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>亚马逊网络服务-亚马逊：以下是您应该监控的内容</li><li>数字广告-亚马逊：“其他”细分市场的价值可能超过AWS</li></ol><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Although Amazon appears to be more expensive than Microsoft based on backward-looking trading multiples such as Price-to-Earnings and Price-to-FCF ratios, it's relatively cheaper than Microsoft when we factor in future growth as indicated by the PEG ratios.</p><p><blockquote>尽管根据市盈率和市盈率与自由现金流比率等回顾性交易倍数，亚马逊似乎比微软贵，但当我们考虑到PEG比率所表明的未来增长时，亚马逊相对比微软便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68cf436c611eb187de68bf8802e73021\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"478\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In summary, Microsoft is currently performing better than Amazon. However, Amazon's future appears to be a lot brighter than Microsoft. Since the stock markets are forward-looking, I would expect Amazon to outperform Microsoft over the coming years if their relative valuations were identical. With that being said, let us now calculate the intrinsic value of both Microsoft and Amazon along with future expected returns for these tech giants.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，微软目前的表现优于亚马逊。然而，亚马逊的未来似乎比微软要光明得多。由于股市具有前瞻性，如果亚马逊的相对估值相同，我预计亚马逊在未来几年的表现将优于微软。话虽如此，现在让我们计算一下微软和亚马逊的内在价值，以及这些科技巨头未来的预期回报。</blockquote></p><p> Evaluating the Fair Value And Expected Return of Microsoft And Amazon</p><p><blockquote>评估微软和亚马逊的公允价值和预期回报</blockquote></p><p> To find the fair values of Microsoft and Amazon, we will employ our proprietary valuation model. Here's what it entails:</p><p><blockquote>为了找到微软和亚马逊的公允价值，我们将采用我们专有的估值模型。它的含义如下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>In step 1, we use a traditional DCF model with free cash flow discounted by our (shareholders) cost of capital.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在第一步中，我们使用传统的DCF模型，自由现金流按我们（股东）的资本成本贴现。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>In step 2, the model accounts for the effects of the change in shares outstanding (buybacks/dilutions).</p><p><blockquote><li>在步骤2中，模型考虑了已发行股票变化（回购/稀释）的影响。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>In step 3, we normalize valuation for future growth prospects at the end of the 10 years. Then, we arrive at a CAGR using today's share price and the projected share price at the end of 10 years. If this beats the market by enough of a margin, we invest. If not, we wait for a better entry point.</p><p><blockquote><li>在第3步中，我们将10年末未来增长前景的估值标准化。然后，我们使用今天的股价和10年末的预计股价得出CAGR。如果这比市场高出足够的幅度，我们就投资。如果没有，我们等待一个更好的切入点。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>In step 4, we account for dividends.</li> </ul> <b>Assumptions:</b></p><p><blockquote><li>在第4步中，我们考虑股息。</li><b>假设：</b></blockquote></p><p> <table> <colgroup></colgroup> <tbody> <tr> <td>Microsoft</p><p><blockquote><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td>微软</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>Amazon</p><p><blockquote><td>亚马逊</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Forward 12-month revenue [A]</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>远期12个月收入[A]</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>$195 billion</p><p><blockquote><td>1950亿美元</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>$515 billion</p><p><blockquote><td>5150亿美元</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Potential Free Cash Flow Margin [B]</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>潜在自由现金流利润率[B]</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>35%</p><p><blockquote><td>35%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>20%</p><p><blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Average diluted shares outstanding [C]</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>平均稀释后已发行股份[C]</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>7.5 billion</p><p><blockquote><td>75亿</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>525 million</p><p><blockquote><td>5.25亿</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Free cash flow per share [ D = (A * B) / C ]</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>每股自由现金流[D=(A*B)/C]</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>$9.1</p><p><blockquote><td>$9.1</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>$196.19</p><p><blockquote><td>$196.19</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Free cash flow per share growth rate</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>每股自由现金流增长率</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>10%</p><p><blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>12.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Terminal growth rate</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>终末增长率</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>3%</p><p><blockquote><td>3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>3%</p><p><blockquote><td>3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Years of elevated growth</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>多年的高增长</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>10</p><p><blockquote><td>10</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>10</p><p><blockquote><td>10</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total years to stimulate</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>刺激总年数</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>100</p><p><blockquote><td>100</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>100</p><p><blockquote><td>100</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Discount Rate (Our \"Next Best Alternative\")</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>贴现率（我们的“次佳替代方案”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>9.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>9.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>9.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>9.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <b>Results:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结果：</b></blockquote></p><p> 1) Microsoft:</p><p><blockquote>1）微软：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/875546f4aabbb1e580dcc9610c18a5b9\" tg-width=\"604\" tg-height=\"729\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8861dcb9fc1fbcd858297426ec52eaf6\" tg-width=\"606\" tg-height=\"771\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：L.A.史蒂文斯估值模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>2) Amazon:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2）亚马逊：</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8fb43ad416565a9768e919470e59bab\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"731\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a15de5a0494d4557b38c2290017588e9\" tg-width=\"609\" tg-height=\"430\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：L.A.史蒂文斯估值模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Summary of Results:</p><p><blockquote>结果总结：</blockquote></p><p> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td><b>Current Price</b></td> <td><b>Fair Value</b></td> <td><b>Undervalued (-) or Overvalued (+)</b></td> <td><b>2031 Share Price Target</b></td> <td><b>Total Expected CAGR Return</b></td> <td><b>Rating</b></td> </tr> <tr> <td><b>Microsoft</b></td> <td>$301</td> <td>$295</td> <td>+2.15%</td> <td>$1101</td> <td>14.71%</td> <td><i>Modest Buy</i></td> </tr> <tr> <td><b>Amazon</b></td> <td>$3478</td> <td>$6024</td> <td>-42.27%</td> <td>$22298</td> <td>20.42%</td> <td><i>Strong Buy</i></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> As you can see, Microsoft is slightly overvalued, and investors buying in at $301 can expect to generate CAGR returns of ~14.71% over the next decade, which is slightly below our investment hurdle rate of 15%. Since Microsoft's business fundamentals are robust, I rate it as a modest buy at this price. On the other hand, Amazon's business is facing near-term volatility, and business momentum looks shaky. However, Amazon's stock is deeply undervalued, and this is an opportunity for long-term investors to generate significant alpha. As Amazon's expected CAGR returns are much greater than my hurdle rate, I rate Amazon a strong buy. If I were to choose between Microsoft and Amazon based on business momentum (cloud and otherwise), I would have to go with Microsoft. However, Amazon's stock is massively undervalued while Microsoft is fairly valued. Considering the risk/reward available, I think Amazon is the better buy here.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>当前价格</b></td><td><b>公允价值</b></td><td><b>低估(-)或高估(+)</b></td><td><b>2031年股价目标</b></td><td><b>总预期复合年增长率回报</b></td><td><b>评级</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>微软</b></td><td>$301</td><td>$295</td><td>+2.15%</td><td>$1101</td><td>14.71%</td><td><i>适度购买</i></td></tr><tr><td><b>亚马逊</b></td><td>$3478</td><td>$6024</td><td>-42.27%</td><td>$22298</td><td>20.42%</td><td><i>强力买入</i></td></tr></tbody></table>正如您所看到的，微软的估值略有高估，以301美元买入的投资者预计未来十年的复合年增长率约为14.71%，略低于我们15%的投资门槛率。由于微软的业务基本面强劲，我将其评为以这个价格适度买入。另一方面，亚马逊的业务面临近期波动，业务势头看起来摇摇欲坠。然而，亚马逊的股票被严重低估，这是长期投资者产生显着阿尔法的机会。由于亚马逊的预期复合年增长率远大于我的最低回报率，我将亚马逊评为强力买入。如果我要根据业务势头（云和其他）在微软和亚马逊之间做出选择，我会选择微软。然而，亚马逊的股票被严重低估，而微软的估值相当合理。考虑到可用的风险/回报，我认为亚马逊是更好的选择。</blockquote></p><p> Key Takeaway: I rate Amazon a strong buy at $3,478 and Microsoft a modest buy at $301. Amazon is a better buy than Microsoft at this point in time.</p><p><blockquote>要点：我对亚马逊的评级为3,478美元的强力买入，对微软的评级为301美元的适度买入。目前，亚马逊比微软更划算。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon Vs. Microsoft: Two Cloud Computing Giants, One Winning Stock<blockquote>亚马逊Vs.微软：两大云计算巨头，一只胜出股</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon Vs. Microsoft: Two Cloud Computing Giants, One Winning Stock<blockquote>亚马逊Vs.微软：两大云计算巨头，一只胜出股</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-09 11:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Microsoft's Azure continues to gain market share in the burgeoning cloud infrastructure services market. However, Amazon's AWS remains in the No.1 position.</li> <li>Although the cloud wars are heating up, both Azure and AWS are performing exceptionally, growing at 51% y/y and 37% y/y, respectively.</li> <li>The global cloud services market is poised to grow at a CAGR of ~15.8% until 2030 to become a $1.6T market. Therefore, cloud providers still have a long growth runway.</li> <li>In this article, I share a comparative financial analysis for Microsoft and Amazon to determine the better buy.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69eeb847ac2a68d9068ee3d90ae2ec5c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>微软的Azure继续在蓬勃发展的云基础设施服务市场中获得市场份额。然而，亚马逊的AWS仍然保持在第一的位置。</li><li>尽管云战争正在升温，但Azure和AWS的表现都非常出色，分别同比增长51%和37%。</li><li>到2030年，全球云服务市场将以约15.8%的复合年增长率增长，成为一个价值1.6 T美元的市场。因此，云提供商还有很长的增长跑道。</li><li>在这篇文章中，我分享了微软和亚马逊的比较财务分析，以确定更好的购买方式。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>奇普·索莫德维拉/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) are competing for the coveted No.1 spot in the cloud infrastructure services market, which is projected to grow from $325B in 2021 to $1,620B (or $1.6T) by 2030, according to areportby Allied Market Research. In Q2, Amazon's AWS revenues grew at 37% year-over-year (marked acceleration) as it continues to lead the cloud infrastructure services market with a 31% market share. However, Microsoft's Azure is outpacing AWS's growth and now commands a market share of 22%.</p><p><blockquote>微软(MSFT)和亚马逊(AMZN)正在争夺云基础设施服务市场令人垂涎的第一名位置，根据Allied Market的报告，预计到2030年，该市场将从2021年的$325B增长到$1,620B（或$1.6 T）研究。第二季度，亚马逊的AWS收入同比增长37%（显着加速），继续以31%的市场份额引领云基础设施服务市场。然而，微软的Azure正在超过AWS的增长，目前占据22%的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60b929cfb3eb06a50b14a942b980bd8d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: canalys.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：canalys.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the last year or so, the coronavirus pandemic has led to increased cloud infrastructure services spending as workload migration and cloud-native application development accelerated. Naturally, Azure and AWS have emerged as prime beneficiaries of this transformational shift toward the cloud. Although the coronavirus pandemic has receded in previous months, businesses have continued to embrace the cloud, as evidenced by the $5B sequential (q/q) growth in cloud infrastructure services spending in Q2 2021.</p><p><blockquote>在过去一年左右的时间里，随着工作负载迁移和云原生应用程序开发的加速，冠状病毒疫情导致云基础设施服务支出增加。自然，Azure和AWS已经成为这种向云转型的主要受益者。尽管冠状病毒疫情在前几个月已经消退，但企业仍在继续拥抱云，2021年Q2云基础设施服务支出环比增长50亿美元就证明了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab77f327d4b4f980b703dd05a727a8fd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: canalys.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：canalys.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Both Microsoft and Amazon are well-diversified big tech giants. However, the cloud opportunity is critical to their future successes. Today, Microsoft's Intelligent Cloud business makes up nearly ~37% of total revenues and ~40% of Microsoft's operating income, and these figures are expected to grow even further in the coming years. In relation to Amazon, AWS's revenues are a small fraction (13% in Q2 2021) of total sales. However, AWS contributes the majority of Amazon's operating income (~60%). And so, I'm not surprised with how ugly this battle is turning out to be. In recent times, we have witnessed dramatic instances such as Amazon's lawsuit for the $10B Jedi contract being awarded to Microsoft,Microsoft's protest to Government Accountability Office in relation to the $10B NSA contract awarded to Amazon, and a top AWS executive - Charlie Bell (once expected to be a successor to Andy Jassy as AWS CEO) -moving over to Microsoft. The competition between Amazon and Microsoft is fearsome. However, I can see ample room for multiple winners in the cloud services market.</p><p><blockquote>微软和亚马逊都是多元化的大型科技巨头。然而，云机遇对他们未来的成功至关重要。如今，微软的智能云业务占总收入的近37%，占微软营业收入的约40%，预计这些数字在未来几年将进一步增长。与亚马逊相比，AWS的收入仅占总销售额的一小部分（2021年第二季度为13%）。然而，AWS贡献了亚马逊的大部分营业收入（约60%）。所以，我对这场战斗变得如此丑陋并不感到惊讶。最近，我们目睹了一些戏剧性的事件，如亚马逊就授予微软的100亿美元Jedi合同提起诉讼，微软就授予亚马逊的100亿美元NSA合同向政府问责办公室提出抗议，以及AWS高管Charlie Bell（曾有望接替Andy Jassy担任AWS首席执行官）搬到微软。亚马逊和微软之间的竞争是可怕的。然而，我可以看到云服务市场有足够的空间容纳多个赢家。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7fd2cfae285856cb75e5ced740ef320\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"310\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Allied Market Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：联合市场研究</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With massive cloud services growth on the horizon, I expect both Microsoft and Amazon to deliver double-digit revenue growth over the coming decade. Several analysts have projected the cloud services business to become a commodity. However, profitability metrics for AWS and Microsoft's Intelligent Cloud show that it's clearly not a commodity business (at least for now). Azure has been gaining ground on AWS, but it's too soon to tell which of these tech titans will lead the cloud services market over the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>随着云服务的大规模增长，我预计微软和亚马逊在未来十年都将实现两位数的收入增长。一些分析师预计云服务业务将成为一种商品。然而，AWS和微软智能云的盈利指标显示，它显然不是一项商品业务（至少目前如此）。Azure一直在AWS上取得进展，但现在判断这些科技巨头中哪一家将在未来几年引领云服务市场还为时过早。</blockquote></p><p> Over the last 12 months, Microsoft has significantly outperformed Amazon in terms of creating shareholder wealth, as can be observed in the chart below. I attribute Microsoft's outperformance to a multitude of factors, including but not limited to stronger momentum in the cloud, the existence of a massive capital return program, and robust free cash flow generation.</p><p><blockquote>在过去12个月中，微软在创造股东财富方面的表现明显优于亚马逊，如下图所示。我将微软的优异表现归因于多种因素，包括但不限于云计算的强劲势头、大规模资本回报计划的存在以及强劲的自由现金流生成。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a47beb283bcc911ba9ad25c4c2c01f91\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In today's article, I will share a comparative financial analysis to determine the better buy among Microsoft and Amazon. Furthermore, we will estimate the fair value and expected returns for both of these blue-chip companies based on the financial statement analysis conducted in this note.</p><p><blockquote>在今天的文章中，我将分享一个比较财务分析，以确定微软和亚马逊之间更好的购买方式。此外，我们将根据本附注中进行的财务报表分析估计这两家蓝筹公司的公允价值和预期回报。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Comparative Financial Analysis: Microsoft vs. Amazon</b></p><p><blockquote><b>比较财务分析：微软与亚马逊</b></blockquote></p><p> I think it's too early to call the cloud services market, and the winners will only be evident in due time. However, it's very likely that Amazon and Microsoft will be dominating this market in 2031. Now, Amazon and Microsoft may be competitors in the cloud, but they happen to be two very different companies with varied core competencies: Amazon - e-commerce, Microsoft - business, and consumer software. Let's carry out a comparative financial analysis to determine the better buy among Microsoft and Amazon.</p><p><blockquote>我认为现在看涨期权云服务市场还为时过早，赢家只有在适当的时候才会显现出来。然而，亚马逊和微软很可能会在2031年主导这个市场。现在，亚马逊和微软可能是云领域的竞争对手，但它们恰好是两家截然不同的公司，拥有不同的核心竞争力：亚马逊——电子商务、微软——商业和消费软件。让我们进行一个比较财务分析，以确定微软和亚马逊之间更好的购买方式。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d675b34f8dc1b88db5722fa7be591b9f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"478\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In essence, Microsoft is a high-margin software and services business, while Amazon is a low-margin retail business with some higher-margin business lines such as AWS and Advertising. Since both Amazon and Microsoft are over-covered stocks, I don't think discussing their revenue mix would be of much value. However, let's look at the free cash flow generation of these blue-chip giants to understand their current business momentum.</p><p><blockquote>本质上，微软是一个高利润的软件和服务业务，而亚马逊是一个低利润的零售业务，拥有一些更高利润的业务线，如AWS和广告。由于亚马逊和微软都是被过度覆盖的股票，我认为讨论它们的收入组合没有多大价值。然而，让我们看看这些蓝筹巨头的自由现金流生成情况，以了解他们目前的业务势头。</blockquote></p><p> After receiving a massive pandemic boost, Amazon's free cash flows have turned negative in the last two quarters as the company invests massive amounts of capital (capex spending) in driving future revenue growth. In Q2, Amazon missed revenue estimates by ~$2B, which is further evidence of Amazon losing business momentum. On the other hand, Microsoft's business momentum remained strong in Q2 as the company beat revenue expectations by ~$2B while generating record amounts of free cash flow over the last 12 months. Therefore, it's fair to say that Microsoft is outperforming Amazon for the time being.</p><p><blockquote>在受到大流行的巨大提振后，亚马逊的自由现金流在过去两个季度转为负值，因为该公司投入了大量资本（capex支出）来推动未来的收入增长。第二季度，亚马逊的收入低于预期约20亿美元，这进一步证明亚马逊正在失去业务动力。另一方面，微软第二季度的业务势头依然强劲，该公司的收入超出预期约20亿美元，同时在过去12个月内产生了创纪录的自由现金流。因此，可以公平地说，微软的表现暂时优于亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ed96043009b5528ed09d4e736d1833d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"446\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At the end of Q2, Microsoft had nearly $130B of cash and short-term investments on its balance sheet vs. financial debt of $58B (down from ~$90B debt in Dec'17). Over the last five years, Amazon's cash reserves have been building up, which now stand at ~$90B. However, the e-commerce giant has been increasing its debt load too, which has grown to $50B in Q2 2021.</p><p><blockquote>截至第二季度末，微软的资产负债表上有近130B美元的现金和短期投资，而金融债务为58B美元（低于17年12月的约90B美元债务）。在过去的五年里，亚马逊的现金储备一直在增加，目前约为90B美元。然而，这家电子商务巨头的债务负担也在增加，2021年第二季度已增至500亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f8f27effc87360acc99c52dadd22af3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"446\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In terms of balance sheet strength, Microsoft is clearly in a better position compared to Amazon. Moreover, Microsoft's free cash flow generation is superior to Amazon right now. As you can see below, Microsoft is using its financial strength to execute a massive capital return program that consists of stock buybacks and dividends. Although Amazon lacks a capital return program today, it's only a matter of time before Amazon boasts one of the largest capital return programs among big tech companies. Therefore, Microsoft's advantage in this department may be short lived.</p><p><blockquote>就资产负债表实力而言，与亚马逊相比，微软显然处于更有利的地位。此外，微软目前的自由现金流生成量优于亚马逊。如下图所示，微软正在利用其财务实力执行一项大规模资本回报计划，其中包括股票回购和股息。尽管亚马逊目前缺乏资本回报计划，但亚马逊拥有大型科技公司中最大的资本回报计划之一只是时间问题。因此，微软在这一部门的优势可能是短暂的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef388b2cab13ed222ddf2ba53ad6067f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"446\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While Microsoft returns the majority of its operational cash flows back to shareholders, Amazon is investing billions of dollars to drive future revenue (and, by extension, free cash flow) growth. In my opinion, Amazon will continue to outpace Microsoft's revenue growth over the next decade. As Amazon's faster-growing, higher-margin business lines, AWS and Advertising, contribute a larger share of Amazon's revenues over the coming years, its margins are expected to head higher. Hence, Amazon possesses the greater potential for revenue growth and margin expansion compared to Microsoft. To learn more about AWS and Amazon's Ads business, you may read the following notes:</p><p><blockquote>虽然微软将大部分运营现金流返还给股东，但亚马逊正在投资数十亿美元来推动未来收入（以及自由现金流）的增长。在我看来，未来十年，亚马逊的收入增长将继续超过微软。随着亚马逊增长更快、利润率更高的业务线AWS和广告在未来几年为亚马逊的收入贡献了更大的份额，预计其利润率将会上升。因此，与微软相比，亚马逊拥有更大的收入增长和利润率扩张潜力。要了解有关AWS和亚马逊广告业务的更多信息，您可以阅读以下说明：</blockquote></p><p> <ol> <li>Amazon Web Services - Amazon: Here's What You Should Be Monitoring</li> <li>Digital Ads - Amazon: The 'Other' Segment May Be Worth More Than AWS</li> </ol> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18e9ff96d611913db9e45fbff0cc34ab\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>亚马逊网络服务-亚马逊：以下是您应该监控的内容</li><li>数字广告-亚马逊：“其他”细分市场的价值可能超过AWS</li></ol><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Although Amazon appears to be more expensive than Microsoft based on backward-looking trading multiples such as Price-to-Earnings and Price-to-FCF ratios, it's relatively cheaper than Microsoft when we factor in future growth as indicated by the PEG ratios.</p><p><blockquote>尽管根据市盈率和市盈率与自由现金流比率等回顾性交易倍数，亚马逊似乎比微软贵，但当我们考虑到PEG比率所表明的未来增长时，亚马逊相对比微软便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68cf436c611eb187de68bf8802e73021\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"478\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In summary, Microsoft is currently performing better than Amazon. However, Amazon's future appears to be a lot brighter than Microsoft. Since the stock markets are forward-looking, I would expect Amazon to outperform Microsoft over the coming years if their relative valuations were identical. With that being said, let us now calculate the intrinsic value of both Microsoft and Amazon along with future expected returns for these tech giants.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，微软目前的表现优于亚马逊。然而，亚马逊的未来似乎比微软要光明得多。由于股市具有前瞻性，如果亚马逊的相对估值相同，我预计亚马逊在未来几年的表现将优于微软。话虽如此，现在让我们计算一下微软和亚马逊的内在价值，以及这些科技巨头未来的预期回报。</blockquote></p><p> Evaluating the Fair Value And Expected Return of Microsoft And Amazon</p><p><blockquote>评估微软和亚马逊的公允价值和预期回报</blockquote></p><p> To find the fair values of Microsoft and Amazon, we will employ our proprietary valuation model. Here's what it entails:</p><p><blockquote>为了找到微软和亚马逊的公允价值，我们将采用我们专有的估值模型。它的含义如下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>In step 1, we use a traditional DCF model with free cash flow discounted by our (shareholders) cost of capital.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在第一步中，我们使用传统的DCF模型，自由现金流按我们（股东）的资本成本贴现。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>In step 2, the model accounts for the effects of the change in shares outstanding (buybacks/dilutions).</p><p><blockquote><li>在步骤2中，模型考虑了已发行股票变化（回购/稀释）的影响。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>In step 3, we normalize valuation for future growth prospects at the end of the 10 years. Then, we arrive at a CAGR using today's share price and the projected share price at the end of 10 years. If this beats the market by enough of a margin, we invest. If not, we wait for a better entry point.</p><p><blockquote><li>在第3步中，我们将10年末未来增长前景的估值标准化。然后，我们使用今天的股价和10年末的预计股价得出CAGR。如果这比市场高出足够的幅度，我们就投资。如果没有，我们等待一个更好的切入点。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>In step 4, we account for dividends.</li> </ul> <b>Assumptions:</b></p><p><blockquote><li>在第4步中，我们考虑股息。</li><b>假设：</b></blockquote></p><p> <table> <colgroup></colgroup> <tbody> <tr> <td>Microsoft</p><p><blockquote><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td>微软</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>Amazon</p><p><blockquote><td>亚马逊</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Forward 12-month revenue [A]</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>远期12个月收入[A]</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>$195 billion</p><p><blockquote><td>1950亿美元</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>$515 billion</p><p><blockquote><td>5150亿美元</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Potential Free Cash Flow Margin [B]</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>潜在自由现金流利润率[B]</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>35%</p><p><blockquote><td>35%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>20%</p><p><blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Average diluted shares outstanding [C]</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>平均稀释后已发行股份[C]</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>7.5 billion</p><p><blockquote><td>75亿</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>525 million</p><p><blockquote><td>5.25亿</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Free cash flow per share [ D = (A * B) / C ]</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>每股自由现金流[D=(A*B)/C]</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>$9.1</p><p><blockquote><td>$9.1</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>$196.19</p><p><blockquote><td>$196.19</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Free cash flow per share growth rate</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>每股自由现金流增长率</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>10%</p><p><blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>12.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Terminal growth rate</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>终末增长率</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>3%</p><p><blockquote><td>3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>3%</p><p><blockquote><td>3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Years of elevated growth</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>多年的高增长</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>10</p><p><blockquote><td>10</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>10</p><p><blockquote><td>10</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total years to stimulate</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>刺激总年数</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>100</p><p><blockquote><td>100</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>100</p><p><blockquote><td>100</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Discount Rate (Our \"Next Best Alternative\")</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>贴现率（我们的“次佳替代方案”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>9.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>9.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>9.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>9.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <b>Results:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结果：</b></blockquote></p><p> 1) Microsoft:</p><p><blockquote>1）微软：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/875546f4aabbb1e580dcc9610c18a5b9\" tg-width=\"604\" tg-height=\"729\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8861dcb9fc1fbcd858297426ec52eaf6\" tg-width=\"606\" tg-height=\"771\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：L.A.史蒂文斯估值模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>2) Amazon:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2）亚马逊：</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8fb43ad416565a9768e919470e59bab\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"731\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a15de5a0494d4557b38c2290017588e9\" tg-width=\"609\" tg-height=\"430\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：L.A.史蒂文斯估值模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Summary of Results:</p><p><blockquote>结果总结：</blockquote></p><p> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td><b>Current Price</b></td> <td><b>Fair Value</b></td> <td><b>Undervalued (-) or Overvalued (+)</b></td> <td><b>2031 Share Price Target</b></td> <td><b>Total Expected CAGR Return</b></td> <td><b>Rating</b></td> </tr> <tr> <td><b>Microsoft</b></td> <td>$301</td> <td>$295</td> <td>+2.15%</td> <td>$1101</td> <td>14.71%</td> <td><i>Modest Buy</i></td> </tr> <tr> <td><b>Amazon</b></td> <td>$3478</td> <td>$6024</td> <td>-42.27%</td> <td>$22298</td> <td>20.42%</td> <td><i>Strong Buy</i></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> As you can see, Microsoft is slightly overvalued, and investors buying in at $301 can expect to generate CAGR returns of ~14.71% over the next decade, which is slightly below our investment hurdle rate of 15%. Since Microsoft's business fundamentals are robust, I rate it as a modest buy at this price. On the other hand, Amazon's business is facing near-term volatility, and business momentum looks shaky. However, Amazon's stock is deeply undervalued, and this is an opportunity for long-term investors to generate significant alpha. As Amazon's expected CAGR returns are much greater than my hurdle rate, I rate Amazon a strong buy. If I were to choose between Microsoft and Amazon based on business momentum (cloud and otherwise), I would have to go with Microsoft. However, Amazon's stock is massively undervalued while Microsoft is fairly valued. Considering the risk/reward available, I think Amazon is the better buy here.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>当前价格</b></td><td><b>公允价值</b></td><td><b>低估(-)或高估(+)</b></td><td><b>2031年股价目标</b></td><td><b>总预期复合年增长率回报</b></td><td><b>评级</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>微软</b></td><td>$301</td><td>$295</td><td>+2.15%</td><td>$1101</td><td>14.71%</td><td><i>适度购买</i></td></tr><tr><td><b>亚马逊</b></td><td>$3478</td><td>$6024</td><td>-42.27%</td><td>$22298</td><td>20.42%</td><td><i>强力买入</i></td></tr></tbody></table>正如您所看到的，微软的估值略有高估，以301美元买入的投资者预计未来十年的复合年增长率约为14.71%，略低于我们15%的投资门槛率。由于微软的业务基本面强劲，我将其评为以这个价格适度买入。另一方面，亚马逊的业务面临近期波动，业务势头看起来摇摇欲坠。然而，亚马逊的股票被严重低估，这是长期投资者产生显着阿尔法的机会。由于亚马逊的预期复合年增长率远大于我的最低回报率，我将亚马逊评为强力买入。如果我要根据业务势头（云和其他）在微软和亚马逊之间做出选择，我会选择微软。然而，亚马逊的股票被严重低估，而微软的估值相当合理。考虑到可用的风险/回报，我认为亚马逊是更好的选择。</blockquote></p><p> Key Takeaway: I rate Amazon a strong buy at $3,478 and Microsoft a modest buy at $301. Amazon is a better buy than Microsoft at this point in time.</p><p><blockquote>要点：我对亚马逊的评级为3,478美元的强力买入，对微软的评级为301美元的适度买入。目前，亚马逊比微软更划算。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453940-amazon-vs-microsoft-two-cloud-computing-giants-one-winning-stock\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊","MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453940-amazon-vs-microsoft-two-cloud-computing-giants-one-winning-stock","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127517147","content_text":"Summary\n\nMicrosoft's Azure continues to gain market share in the burgeoning cloud infrastructure services market. However, Amazon's AWS remains in the No.1 position.\nAlthough the cloud wars are heating up, both Azure and AWS are performing exceptionally, growing at 51% y/y and 37% y/y, respectively.\nThe global cloud services market is poised to grow at a CAGR of ~15.8% until 2030 to become a $1.6T market. Therefore, cloud providers still have a long growth runway.\nIn this article, I share a comparative financial analysis for Microsoft and Amazon to determine the better buy.\n\nChip Somodevilla/Getty Images News\nIntroduction\nMicrosoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) are competing for the coveted No.1 spot in the cloud infrastructure services market, which is projected to grow from $325B in 2021 to $1,620B (or $1.6T) by 2030, according to areportby Allied Market Research. In Q2, Amazon's AWS revenues grew at 37% year-over-year (marked acceleration) as it continues to lead the cloud infrastructure services market with a 31% market share. However, Microsoft's Azure is outpacing AWS's growth and now commands a market share of 22%.\nSource: canalys.com\nIn the last year or so, the coronavirus pandemic has led to increased cloud infrastructure services spending as workload migration and cloud-native application development accelerated. Naturally, Azure and AWS have emerged as prime beneficiaries of this transformational shift toward the cloud. Although the coronavirus pandemic has receded in previous months, businesses have continued to embrace the cloud, as evidenced by the $5B sequential (q/q) growth in cloud infrastructure services spending in Q2 2021.\nSource: canalys.com\nBoth Microsoft and Amazon are well-diversified big tech giants. However, the cloud opportunity is critical to their future successes. Today, Microsoft's Intelligent Cloud business makes up nearly ~37% of total revenues and ~40% of Microsoft's operating income, and these figures are expected to grow even further in the coming years. In relation to Amazon, AWS's revenues are a small fraction (13% in Q2 2021) of total sales. However, AWS contributes the majority of Amazon's operating income (~60%). And so, I'm not surprised with how ugly this battle is turning out to be. In recent times, we have witnessed dramatic instances such as Amazon's lawsuit for the $10B Jedi contract being awarded to Microsoft,Microsoft's protest to Government Accountability Office in relation to the $10B NSA contract awarded to Amazon, and a top AWS executive - Charlie Bell (once expected to be a successor to Andy Jassy as AWS CEO) -moving over to Microsoft. The competition between Amazon and Microsoft is fearsome. However, I can see ample room for multiple winners in the cloud services market.\nSource: Allied Market Research\nWith massive cloud services growth on the horizon, I expect both Microsoft and Amazon to deliver double-digit revenue growth over the coming decade. Several analysts have projected the cloud services business to become a commodity. However, profitability metrics for AWS and Microsoft's Intelligent Cloud show that it's clearly not a commodity business (at least for now). Azure has been gaining ground on AWS, but it's too soon to tell which of these tech titans will lead the cloud services market over the coming years.\nOver the last 12 months, Microsoft has significantly outperformed Amazon in terms of creating shareholder wealth, as can be observed in the chart below. I attribute Microsoft's outperformance to a multitude of factors, including but not limited to stronger momentum in the cloud, the existence of a massive capital return program, and robust free cash flow generation.\nSource: YCharts\nIn today's article, I will share a comparative financial analysis to determine the better buy among Microsoft and Amazon. Furthermore, we will estimate the fair value and expected returns for both of these blue-chip companies based on the financial statement analysis conducted in this note.\nComparative Financial Analysis: Microsoft vs. Amazon\nI think it's too early to call the cloud services market, and the winners will only be evident in due time. However, it's very likely that Amazon and Microsoft will be dominating this market in 2031. Now, Amazon and Microsoft may be competitors in the cloud, but they happen to be two very different companies with varied core competencies: Amazon - e-commerce, Microsoft - business, and consumer software. Let's carry out a comparative financial analysis to determine the better buy among Microsoft and Amazon.\nSource: YCharts\nIn essence, Microsoft is a high-margin software and services business, while Amazon is a low-margin retail business with some higher-margin business lines such as AWS and Advertising. Since both Amazon and Microsoft are over-covered stocks, I don't think discussing their revenue mix would be of much value. However, let's look at the free cash flow generation of these blue-chip giants to understand their current business momentum.\nAfter receiving a massive pandemic boost, Amazon's free cash flows have turned negative in the last two quarters as the company invests massive amounts of capital (capex spending) in driving future revenue growth. In Q2, Amazon missed revenue estimates by ~$2B, which is further evidence of Amazon losing business momentum. On the other hand, Microsoft's business momentum remained strong in Q2 as the company beat revenue expectations by ~$2B while generating record amounts of free cash flow over the last 12 months. Therefore, it's fair to say that Microsoft is outperforming Amazon for the time being.\nSource: YCharts\nAt the end of Q2, Microsoft had nearly $130B of cash and short-term investments on its balance sheet vs. financial debt of $58B (down from ~$90B debt in Dec'17). Over the last five years, Amazon's cash reserves have been building up, which now stand at ~$90B. However, the e-commerce giant has been increasing its debt load too, which has grown to $50B in Q2 2021.\nSource: YCharts\nIn terms of balance sheet strength, Microsoft is clearly in a better position compared to Amazon. Moreover, Microsoft's free cash flow generation is superior to Amazon right now. As you can see below, Microsoft is using its financial strength to execute a massive capital return program that consists of stock buybacks and dividends. Although Amazon lacks a capital return program today, it's only a matter of time before Amazon boasts one of the largest capital return programs among big tech companies. Therefore, Microsoft's advantage in this department may be short lived.\nSource: YCharts\nWhile Microsoft returns the majority of its operational cash flows back to shareholders, Amazon is investing billions of dollars to drive future revenue (and, by extension, free cash flow) growth. In my opinion, Amazon will continue to outpace Microsoft's revenue growth over the next decade. As Amazon's faster-growing, higher-margin business lines, AWS and Advertising, contribute a larger share of Amazon's revenues over the coming years, its margins are expected to head higher. Hence, Amazon possesses the greater potential for revenue growth and margin expansion compared to Microsoft. To learn more about AWS and Amazon's Ads business, you may read the following notes:\n\nAmazon Web Services - Amazon: Here's What You Should Be Monitoring\nDigital Ads - Amazon: The 'Other' Segment May Be Worth More Than AWS\n\nSource: YCharts\nAlthough Amazon appears to be more expensive than Microsoft based on backward-looking trading multiples such as Price-to-Earnings and Price-to-FCF ratios, it's relatively cheaper than Microsoft when we factor in future growth as indicated by the PEG ratios.\nSource: YCharts\nIn summary, Microsoft is currently performing better than Amazon. However, Amazon's future appears to be a lot brighter than Microsoft. Since the stock markets are forward-looking, I would expect Amazon to outperform Microsoft over the coming years if their relative valuations were identical. With that being said, let us now calculate the intrinsic value of both Microsoft and Amazon along with future expected returns for these tech giants.\nEvaluating the Fair Value And Expected Return of Microsoft And Amazon\nTo find the fair values of Microsoft and Amazon, we will employ our proprietary valuation model. Here's what it entails:\n\nIn step 1, we use a traditional DCF model with free cash flow discounted by our (shareholders) cost of capital.\nIn step 2, the model accounts for the effects of the change in shares outstanding (buybacks/dilutions).\nIn step 3, we normalize valuation for future growth prospects at the end of the 10 years. Then, we arrive at a CAGR using today's share price and the projected share price at the end of 10 years. If this beats the market by enough of a margin, we invest. If not, we wait for a better entry point.\nIn step 4, we account for dividends.\n\nAssumptions:\n\n\n\n\nMicrosoft\nAmazon\n\n\nForward 12-month revenue [A]\n$195 billion\n$515 billion\n\n\nPotential Free Cash Flow Margin [B]\n35%\n20%\n\n\nAverage diluted shares outstanding [C]\n7.5 billion\n525 million\n\n\nFree cash flow per share [ D = (A * B) / C ]\n$9.1\n$196.19\n\n\nFree cash flow per share growth rate\n10%\n12.5%\n\n\nTerminal growth rate\n3%\n3%\n\n\nYears of elevated growth\n10\n10\n\n\nTotal years to stimulate\n100\n100\n\n\nDiscount Rate (Our \"Next Best Alternative\")\n9.8%\n9.8%\n\n\n\nResults:\n1) Microsoft:\n\nSource: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model\n2) Amazon:\n\nSource: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model\nSummary of Results:\n\n\n\nCurrent Price\nFair Value\nUndervalued (-) or Overvalued (+)\n2031 Share Price Target\nTotal Expected CAGR Return\nRating\n\n\nMicrosoft\n$301\n$295\n+2.15%\n$1101\n14.71%\nModest Buy\n\n\nAmazon\n$3478\n$6024\n-42.27%\n$22298\n20.42%\nStrong Buy\n\n\n\nAs you can see, Microsoft is slightly overvalued, and investors buying in at $301 can expect to generate CAGR returns of ~14.71% over the next decade, which is slightly below our investment hurdle rate of 15%. Since Microsoft's business fundamentals are robust, I rate it as a modest buy at this price. On the other hand, Amazon's business is facing near-term volatility, and business momentum looks shaky. However, Amazon's stock is deeply undervalued, and this is an opportunity for long-term investors to generate significant alpha. As Amazon's expected CAGR returns are much greater than my hurdle rate, I rate Amazon a strong buy. If I were to choose between Microsoft and Amazon based on business momentum (cloud and otherwise), I would have to go with Microsoft. However, Amazon's stock is massively undervalued while Microsoft is fairly valued. Considering the risk/reward available, I think Amazon is the better buy here.\nKey Takeaway: I rate Amazon a strong buy at $3,478 and Microsoft a modest buy at $301. Amazon is a better buy than Microsoft at this point in time.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9,"MSFT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2342,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":30,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/889575462"}
精彩评论