"Chipping" all the way to the _老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2021-09-09

"Chipping" all the way to the bank

Micron Is Too Cheap To Ignore<blockquote>美光太便宜了，不容忽视</blockquote>

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The company is focused on the memory and storage products segment, through its DRAM, NAND and NOR technologies. By technology, DRAM is by far the most important one, being responsible for more than two thirds of Micron's revenues.<blockquote>美光是世界上最大的半导体公司之一，去年的收入超过 210 亿美元。该公司通过其 DRAM、NAND 和 NOR 技术专注于内存和存储产品领域。就技术而言，DRAM是迄今为止最重要的，占美光收入的三分之二以上。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7be545bd7d6fd523fcb30ebd5c8171d1\" tg-width=\"1007\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Micron.<blockquote>资料来源：美光。</blockquote> Micron was founded in 1978 and is nowadays present in some 17 countries around the world and has 13 manufacturing sites and 14 customer labs in the U.S., China&nbsp;Mainland, Taiwan and other areas. It is traded on the NASDAQ and has a market value of about $83 billion.<blockquote>美光成立于1978年，目前业务遍及全球约17个国家，在美国、中国大陆、台湾等地区拥有13个生产基地和14个客户实验室。它在纳斯达克交易，市值约为830亿美元。</blockquote> The semiconductor industry faces fierce competition and this means that for Micron to remain competitive it must invest continuously in new products and technologies to differentiate itself from other players. Its closest competitors are&nbsp;Samsung Electronics(OTC:SSNLF) and SK Hynix, two companies based in South Korea, thus manufacturing costs is also an important factor for Micron to be competitive in the marketplace. According to Statista, Samsung is the largest player in this market segment, followed by SK and Micron, while other players have much smaller market shares.<blockquote>半导体行业面临激烈的竞争，这意味着美光要想保持竞争力，就必须不断投资于新产品和新技术，以区别于其他参与者。其最接近的竞争对手是三星电子（场外交易所代码：SSNLF）和SK海力士这两家总部位于韩国的公司，因此制造成本也是美光在市场上具有竞争力的重要因素。根据Statista的数据，三星是这一细分市场中最大的参与者，其次是SK和美光，而其他参与者的市场份额要小得多。</blockquote> Even though the semiconductor industry is generally considered to be a cyclical industry, its prospects are quite good due to new technologies that are expected to boost demand over the next few years.<blockquote>尽管半导体行业通常被认为是一个周期性行业，但由于新技术有望在未来几年提振需求，其前景相当不错。</blockquote> Growth<blockquote>增长</blockquote> As I've analyzed in a previous article on \"ASML: A Fantastic Company For Long-Term Investors\", the semiconductor industry has very good long-term growth prospects due to several sources of innovation that should support growth for many years down the road.<blockquote>正如我在之前一篇关于“ASML：长期投资者的绝佳公司”的文章中分析的那样，半导体行业具有非常好的长期增长前景，因为有几个创新来源应该会支持未来许多年的增长。</blockquote> Modern technology is constantly changing and new developments are constantly pushing for new applications of microchips, including memory and storage. The volume of data is expected to grow strongly over the coming years, through technological advances like 5G, Big Data, autonomous vehicles, the internet of things, beyond others. This backdrop is very positive for Micron's growth, being specifically exposed to secular growth trends of AI, 5G, machine learning and autonomous vehicles.<blockquote>现代技术在不断变化，新的发展不断推动微芯片的新应用，包括存储器和存储。通过5G、大数据、自动驾驶汽车、物联网等技术进步，预计未来几年数据量将强劲增长。这一背景对美光的增长非常积极，特别是接触到人工智能、5G、机器学习和自动驾驶汽车的长期增长趋势。</blockquote> This means that Micron is directly exposed to several growth sources over the coming years and its total addressable market is expected to increase substantially over the next decade. This secular growth trend was even accelerated by the coronavirus pandemic, with demand for gaming, laptops and other products increasing rapidly, being a strong cyclical support for Micron's growth beyond its secular growth tailwinds.<blockquote>这意味着美光在未来几年将直接接触到多个增长来源，其总潜在市场预计将在未来十年大幅增长。这种长期增长趋势甚至因冠状病毒大流行而加速，对游戏、笔记本电脑和其他产品的需求快速增长，成为美光超越其长期增长顺风增长的强大周期性支持。</blockquote> According to&nbsp;MarketWatch, the semiconductor memory market is expected to be around $134 in annual sales by 2027, a compounded annual growth rate of 5.9% from 2021-27. Even though this is a positive backdrop, the overall semiconductor industry is projected to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% during 2021-28, thus the memory market may not be the best sub-sector to be exposed to secular growth trends supporting this industry over the coming years. However, Micron has a higher estimate of the total available market for memory and storage by 2024, thus growth opportunities for the company may be higher than what the market is currently expecting.<blockquote>根据MarketWatch的数据，预计到2027年，半导体存储器市场的年销售额将达到134美元左右，2021-27年的复合年增长率为5.9%。尽管这是一个积极的背景，但整个半导体行业预计在2021-28年期间将以8.6%的CAGR增长，因此存储器市场可能不是未来几年支持该行业的长期增长趋势的最佳子行业。然而，美光对 2024 年内存和存储总可用市场的估计更高，因此该公司的增长机会可能高于市场目前的预期。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58b60021e186ca242433f7923d10fbb7\" tg-width=\"380\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Micron.<blockquote>资料来源：美光。</blockquote> Despite good growth prospects over the coming years, the memory and storage segment is usually considered more cyclical than other segments and costumers are structurally reluctant to enter into long-term, fixed-price commitments. This means that Micron is highly exposed to the supply/demand situation in the market and its pricing power is somewhat low over the medium to long term.<blockquote>尽管未来几年的增长前景良好，但内存和存储领域通常被认为比其他领域更具周期性，而且客户在结构上不愿做出长期固定价格承诺。这意味着美光高度暴露于市场的供需状况，其定价能力在中长期内有些偏低。</blockquote> Beyond that, the company also accepts orders that may be adjusted in terms of pricing by the time of shipment, showing that even in the short-term its pricing power is rather low. This is also why the company does not consider its order backlog to be a good indicator of future sales, which means that forecasting Micron's revenues and earnings in a time frame of 3-5 years is a tough exercise that most likely will be incorrect compared to the actual numbers the company will report in the succeeding periods.<blockquote>除此之外，该公司还接受可能根据发货时间在定价方面进行调整的订单，这表明即使在短期内，其定价能力也相当低。这也是该公司不认为其订单积压是未来销售的良好指标的原因，这意味着预测美光在 3-5 年的时间范围内的收入和盈利是一项艰巨的任务，与实际数字相比，很可能是不正确的公司将在后续期间报告。</blockquote> Financial Overview<blockquote>财务概览</blockquote> Regarding its financial performance, Micron has a mixed history showing that its business is clearly cyclical and can report strong swings on an annual basis. Indeed, even though Micron's revenues have increased at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.4% from fiscal years (FY) 2016-20 (which end s in September), its revenues declined by 23% in FY 2019 and 8.4% in FY 2020. Moreover, its net income is also highly volatile, reporting $14 billion in FY 2018 and only $2.7 billion in FY 2020.<blockquote>关于其财务业绩，美光的历史好坏参半，表明其业务明显具有周期性，并且每年都会出现强劲波动。事实上，尽管美光的收入较 2016-20 财年（截至 9 月）的复合年增长率 (CAGR) 为 17.4%，但其收入在 2019 财年下降了 23%，在 2020 财年下降了 8.4%。此外，其净利润也高度波动，2018财年为140亿美元，2020财年仅为27亿美元。</blockquote> This clearly shows that Micron is highly exposed to the ups and downs of the market, which can change quite dramatically in a short period of time. This can also be seen by Micron's long-term trend of its EBITDA margin, which is highly volatile even though it has consistently improved over the years.<blockquote>这清楚地表明，美光高度暴露于市场的起伏，而市场在短时间内可能会发生相当剧烈的变化。这一点也可以从美光EBITDA利润率的长期趋势中看出，尽管多年来一直在改善，但EBITDA利润率波动性很大。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/459155c1caccc19e677c71474158f979\" tg-width=\"291\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Micron.<blockquote>资料来源：美光。</blockquote> More recently, Micron's business has been on a better operating momentum, to some extent driven by the pandemic, with demand for consumer electronics increasing substantially across the globe, which was a strong tailwind for the memory and storage chip market, while other segments reported lower demand, such as automotive.<blockquote>最近，美光的业务运营势头有所改善，这在一定程度上是受到疫情的推动，全球对消费电子产品的需求大幅增长，这对内存和存储芯片市场来说是一个强劲的推动力，而其他细分市场则报告需求较低，例如汽车。</blockquote> This mixed backdrop resulted in lower revenues during the&nbsp;FY 2020, due to a large extent from lower DRAM prices that impacted negatively Micron's revenues and gross margin, Its revenues amounted to $21.4 billion (-8.4% YoY) and its gross margin declined to 31% (vs. 46% in FY 2019). Sales of NAND products increased during the year, boosted by data center customers, but were not enough to offset weakness in the DRAM segment. Regarding costs and R&amp;D, Micron has a good discipline and these costs did not increase significantly compared to the previous year. Micron's bottom-line declined by 57% YoY to $2.7 billion, and its EPS was $2.37 (vs. $5.51 per share in FY 2019).<blockquote>这种复杂的背景导致 2020 财年收入下降，这在很大程度上是由于 DRAM 价格下降对美光的收入和毛利率产生了负面影响，其收入达到 214 亿美元（同比下降 8.4%），毛利率下降至 31%（2019 财年为 46%）。在数据中心客户的推动下，NAND 产品的销售额在年内有所增长，但不足以抵消 DRAM 分部的疲软。在成本和研发方面，美光有很好的纪律，这些成本与上一年相比并没有大幅增加。美光的利润同比下降 57% 至 27 亿美元，每股收益为 2.37 美元（2019 财年为每股 5.51 美元）。</blockquote> During the first nine months of FY 2021, Micron has reported a very strong operating momentum which has enabled it to offset the loss of Huawei as a costumer due to U.S. sanctions (it represented about 12% of Micron's revenues in FY 2019).<blockquote>在2021财年的前九个月，美光报告了非常强劲的运营势头，这使其能够抵消华为作为客户因美国制裁而造成的损失（这约占美光2019财年收入的12%）。</blockquote> In the&nbsp;third quarter of FY 2021, its revenues were 7.4 billion (+36% YoY) boosted by DRAM that reported revenue growth of 52% YoY, due to higher volumes and prices, while NAND's revenues were up by 9% YoY. Its net income more than double from the third quarter of FY 2020, to $2.17 billion, and its net profit margin improved to 29% (vs. 17% in the same quarter of last year). Its free cash flow was $1.5 billion in the quarter, a very good level of cash flow generation compared to accounting profit.<blockquote>2021财年第三季度，其收入为74亿美元（同比增长36%），这得益于DRAM，由于销量和价格上涨，DRAM报告收入同比增长52%，而NAND的收入同比增长9%。其净利润较2020财年第三季度翻了一番多，达到21.7亿美元，净利润率提高到29%（去年同期为17%）。该季度的自由现金流为 15 亿美元，与会计利润相比，现金流产生水平非常好。</blockquote> Going forward, Micron is very positive about the demand outlook in the memory segment, supported by data center costumers and new product developments that should support volume growth in the coming years. On the other hand, there is some negative sentiment in the market about future memory prices, which would be negative for the company's revenue growth in the coming quarters. For instance, a&nbsp;Morgan Stanley(MS) analyst has recently downgraded Micron because he expect s DRAM prices to be in a late stage cycle has the supply-demand situation is becoming more balanced.<blockquote>展望未来，美光对存储器领域的需求前景非常乐观，数据中心客户和新产品开发将支持未来几年的销量增长。另一方面，市场上对未来内存价格存在一些负面情绪，这将对公司未来几个季度的收入增长产生负面影响。例如，一个摩根士丹利(MS)分析师最近下调了美光的评级，因为他预计DRAM价格将处于周期的后期，供需形势正变得更加平衡。</blockquote> Nevertheless, according to&nbsp;analysts' estimates, Micron should report higher revenues in FY 2022 and FY 2023 (to $36.7 billion and $40 billion, respectively) and the business is only expected to slow down thereafter. Its bottom-line is estimated to go up by 86% YoY in FY 2022, but to drop in the following years, which show to some extent that Micron's current strong growth may not be sustainable over the medium term.<blockquote>尽管如此，根据分析师的估计，美光在 2022 财年和 2023 财年应该会报告更高的收入（分别达到 367 亿美元和 400 亿美元），此后业务预计只会放缓。其利润预计在2022财年将同比增长86%，但在随后几年将下降，这在一定程度上表明美光目前的强劲增长在中期内可能不可持续。</blockquote> Regarding its balance sheet, Micron has a good situation, given that its net cash position was around $3.1 billion at the end of last quarter, thus its financial profile is strong and it can return excess capital to shareholders.<blockquote>关于其资产负债表，美光的情况良好，鉴于其上季度末的净现金头寸约为31亿美元，因此其财务状况强劲，可以将多余资本返还给股东。</blockquote> Indeed, Micron has performed historically share buybacks, but more recently decided to start distributing a&nbsp;dividend, which shows some confidence about the company's future business prospects and its ability to return capital to shareholders in a recurring basis. Its quarterly dividend was set at only $0.10 per share, which lead to a modest dividend yield, but the goal is to gradually increase the dividend over the next few years.<blockquote>事实上，美光历来曾进行过股票回购，但最近决定开始派发股息，这表明对公司未来的业务前景及其定期向股东返还资本的能力充满信心。其季度股息仅为每股0.10美元，这导致股息收益率适中，但目标是在未来几年逐步提高股息。</blockquote> Bottom Line<blockquote>底线</blockquote> Micron is reporting strong growth and medium-term prospects are good due to several growth trends of AI, 5G and others. However, the memory market is highly cyclical and there are some worries that its current strong trend may not last much.<blockquote>由于人工智能、5G等多个增长趋势，美光报告增长强劲，中期前景良好。然而，内存市场具有高度周期性，有人担心其当前的强劲趋势可能不会持续太久。</blockquote> The semiconductor industry has secular long-term growth prospects, but in my opinion the best way to invest in this theme is through companies that have some sort of competitive advantage and pricing power, such as&nbsp;ASML(ASML) that has a monopoly in the EUV technology. Micron does not fit that criteria and for that reason I was inclined to avoid it.<blockquote>半导体行业具有长期增长前景，但在我看来，投资这一主题的最佳方式是通过具有某种竞争优势和定价权的公司，例如阿斯麦（ASML）垄断了 EUV 技术。美光不符合这个标准，因此我倾向于避免它。</blockquote> However, I find its&nbsp;valuation&nbsp;as ridiculously cheap, given that based on 2022 and 2023 earnings it is currently trading at less than 7x forward earnings. This is extremely undemanding and even if earnings estimates come down somewhat, Micron would still be trading at a much lower valuation than its peers and its own historical average (about 11.5x over the past five years).<blockquote>然而，我发现它的估值便宜得离谱，因为根据 2022 年和 2023 年的收益，它目前的交易价格不到远期收益的 7 倍。这要求极低，即使盈利预期有所下降，美光的交易估值仍将远低于同行和自身历史平均水平（过去五年约为 11.5 倍）。</blockquote> This means that even though Micron is a cyclical play within the semiconductor industry (my investment approach is to buy mainly secular growth companies), its valuation is too much cheap to ignore and upside potential looks good if pricing in the memory market remains strong. I have bought a small stake in Micron (about 3% of my portfolio) and intend to hold it for a while, but if pricing in the memory market starts to show weakness I most likely will sell my stake.<blockquote>这意味着，尽管美光是半导体行业的周期性公司（我的投资方法是主要购买长期成长型公司），但其估值太便宜了，不容忽视，如果内存市场的定价保持强劲，上行潜力看起来不错。我已经购买了美光的少量股份（约占我投资组合的 3%），并打算持有一段时间，但如果内存市场的定价开始出现疲软，我很可能会出售我的股份。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Micron Is Too Cheap To Ignore<blockquote>美光太便宜了，不容忽视</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicron Is Too Cheap To Ignore<blockquote>美光太便宜了，不容忽视</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-09-09 11:05\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>I invest mainly in secular growth companies and would, therefore, avoid Micron because the memory and storage segment is highly cyclical.</li> <li>Micron is reporting strong growth in the past few quarters and this trend is expected to remain positive over the next couple of years.</li> <li>Its valuation at less than 7x forward earnings is very undemanding and makes it a good cyclical play in the semiconductor industry.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea6943b055b8a3f717a6e1f6c038c065\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>我主要投资于长期成长型公司，因此会避开美光，因为内存和存储领域具有高度周期性。</li><li>美光在过去几个季度报告了强劲的增长，预计这一趋势将在未来几年保持积极。</li><li>其估值不到预期市盈率的 7 倍，要求很低，使其成为半导体行业良好的周期性投资。</li></ul>杂项摄影/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</blockquote> Micron Technology(MU) is a cyclical play within the semiconductor industry and I prefer to invest in secular growth companies, but its valuation is so cheap that it makes a very compelling investment right now.<blockquote>美光科技(MU) 是半导体行业内的周期性公司，我更喜欢投资长期增长的公司，但其估值如此便宜，以至于目前是一项非常有吸引力的投资。</blockquote> Company Overview<blockquote>公司概况</blockquote> Micron&nbsp;is one of the largest semiconductor companies in the world, measured by its more than $21 billion in revenues generated last year. The company is focused on the memory and storage products segment, through its DRAM, NAND and NOR technologies. By technology, DRAM is by far the most important one, being responsible for more than two thirds of Micron's revenues.<blockquote>美光是世界上最大的半导体公司之一，去年的收入超过 210 亿美元。该公司通过其 DRAM、NAND 和 NOR 技术专注于内存和存储产品领域。就技术而言，DRAM是迄今为止最重要的，占美光收入的三分之二以上。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7be545bd7d6fd523fcb30ebd5c8171d1\" tg-width=\"1007\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Micron.<blockquote>资料来源：美光。</blockquote> Micron was founded in 1978 and is nowadays present in some 17 countries around the world and has 13 manufacturing sites and 14 customer labs in the U.S., China&nbsp;Mainland, Taiwan and other areas. It is traded on the NASDAQ and has a market value of about $83 billion.<blockquote>美光成立于1978年，目前业务遍及全球约17个国家，在美国、中国大陆、台湾等地区拥有13个生产基地和14个客户实验室。它在纳斯达克交易，市值约为830亿美元。</blockquote> The semiconductor industry faces fierce competition and this means that for Micron to remain competitive it must invest continuously in new products and technologies to differentiate itself from other players. Its closest competitors are&nbsp;Samsung Electronics(OTC:SSNLF) and SK Hynix, two companies based in South Korea, thus manufacturing costs is also an important factor for Micron to be competitive in the marketplace. According to Statista, Samsung is the largest player in this market segment, followed by SK and Micron, while other players have much smaller market shares.<blockquote>半导体行业面临激烈的竞争，这意味着美光要想保持竞争力，就必须不断投资于新产品和新技术，以区别于其他参与者。其最接近的竞争对手是三星电子（场外交易所代码：SSNLF）和SK海力士这两家总部位于韩国的公司，因此制造成本也是美光在市场上具有竞争力的重要因素。根据Statista的数据，三星是这一细分市场中最大的参与者，其次是SK和美光，而其他参与者的市场份额要小得多。</blockquote> Even though the semiconductor industry is generally considered to be a cyclical industry, its prospects are quite good due to new technologies that are expected to boost demand over the next few years.<blockquote>尽管半导体行业通常被认为是一个周期性行业，但由于新技术有望在未来几年提振需求，其前景相当不错。</blockquote> Growth<blockquote>增长</blockquote> As I've analyzed in a previous article on \"ASML: A Fantastic Company For Long-Term Investors\", the semiconductor industry has very good long-term growth prospects due to several sources of innovation that should support growth for many years down the road.<blockquote>正如我在之前一篇关于“ASML：长期投资者的绝佳公司”的文章中分析的那样，半导体行业具有非常好的长期增长前景，因为有几个创新来源应该会支持未来许多年的增长。</blockquote> Modern technology is constantly changing and new developments are constantly pushing for new applications of microchips, including memory and storage. The volume of data is expected to grow strongly over the coming years, through technological advances like 5G, Big Data, autonomous vehicles, the internet of things, beyond others. This backdrop is very positive for Micron's growth, being specifically exposed to secular growth trends of AI, 5G, machine learning and autonomous vehicles.<blockquote>现代技术在不断变化，新的发展不断推动微芯片的新应用，包括存储器和存储。通过5G、大数据、自动驾驶汽车、物联网等技术进步，预计未来几年数据量将强劲增长。这一背景对美光的增长非常积极，特别是接触到人工智能、5G、机器学习和自动驾驶汽车的长期增长趋势。</blockquote> This means that Micron is directly exposed to several growth sources over the coming years and its total addressable market is expected to increase substantially over the next decade. This secular growth trend was even accelerated by the coronavirus pandemic, with demand for gaming, laptops and other products increasing rapidly, being a strong cyclical support for Micron's growth beyond its secular growth tailwinds.<blockquote>这意味着美光在未来几年将直接接触到多个增长来源，其总潜在市场预计将在未来十年大幅增长。这种长期增长趋势甚至因冠状病毒大流行而加速，对游戏、笔记本电脑和其他产品的需求快速增长，成为美光超越其长期增长顺风增长的强大周期性支持。</blockquote> According to&nbsp;MarketWatch, the semiconductor memory market is expected to be around $134 in annual sales by 2027, a compounded annual growth rate of 5.9% from 2021-27. Even though this is a positive backdrop, the overall semiconductor industry is projected to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% during 2021-28, thus the memory market may not be the best sub-sector to be exposed to secular growth trends supporting this industry over the coming years. However, Micron has a higher estimate of the total available market for memory and storage by 2024, thus growth opportunities for the company may be higher than what the market is currently expecting.<blockquote>根据MarketWatch的数据，预计到2027年，半导体存储器市场的年销售额将达到134美元左右，2021-27年的复合年增长率为5.9%。尽管这是一个积极的背景，但整个半导体行业预计在2021-28年期间将以8.6%的CAGR增长，因此存储器市场可能不是未来几年支持该行业的长期增长趋势的最佳子行业。然而，美光对 2024 年内存和存储总可用市场的估计更高，因此该公司的增长机会可能高于市场目前的预期。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58b60021e186ca242433f7923d10fbb7\" tg-width=\"380\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Micron.<blockquote>资料来源：美光。</blockquote> Despite good growth prospects over the coming years, the memory and storage segment is usually considered more cyclical than other segments and costumers are structurally reluctant to enter into long-term, fixed-price commitments. This means that Micron is highly exposed to the supply/demand situation in the market and its pricing power is somewhat low over the medium to long term.<blockquote>尽管未来几年的增长前景良好，但内存和存储领域通常被认为比其他领域更具周期性，而且客户在结构上不愿做出长期固定价格承诺。这意味着美光高度暴露于市场的供需状况，其定价能力在中长期内有些偏低。</blockquote> Beyond that, the company also accepts orders that may be adjusted in terms of pricing by the time of shipment, showing that even in the short-term its pricing power is rather low. This is also why the company does not consider its order backlog to be a good indicator of future sales, which means that forecasting Micron's revenues and earnings in a time frame of 3-5 years is a tough exercise that most likely will be incorrect compared to the actual numbers the company will report in the succeeding periods.<blockquote>除此之外，该公司还接受可能根据发货时间在定价方面进行调整的订单，这表明即使在短期内，其定价能力也相当低。这也是该公司不认为其订单积压是未来销售的良好指标的原因，这意味着预测美光在 3-5 年的时间范围内的收入和盈利是一项艰巨的任务，与实际数字相比，很可能是不正确的公司将在后续期间报告。</blockquote> Financial Overview<blockquote>财务概览</blockquote> Regarding its financial performance, Micron has a mixed history showing that its business is clearly cyclical and can report strong swings on an annual basis. Indeed, even though Micron's revenues have increased at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.4% from fiscal years (FY) 2016-20 (which end s in September), its revenues declined by 23% in FY 2019 and 8.4% in FY 2020. Moreover, its net income is also highly volatile, reporting $14 billion in FY 2018 and only $2.7 billion in FY 2020.<blockquote>关于其财务业绩，美光的历史好坏参半，表明其业务明显具有周期性，并且每年都会出现强劲波动。事实上，尽管美光的收入较 2016-20 财年（截至 9 月）的复合年增长率 (CAGR) 为 17.4%，但其收入在 2019 财年下降了 23%，在 2020 财年下降了 8.4%。此外，其净利润也高度波动，2018财年为140亿美元，2020财年仅为27亿美元。</blockquote> This clearly shows that Micron is highly exposed to the ups and downs of the market, which can change quite dramatically in a short period of time. This can also be seen by Micron's long-term trend of its EBITDA margin, which is highly volatile even though it has consistently improved over the years.<blockquote>这清楚地表明，美光高度暴露于市场的起伏，而市场在短时间内可能会发生相当剧烈的变化。这一点也可以从美光EBITDA利润率的长期趋势中看出，尽管多年来一直在改善，但EBITDA利润率波动性很大。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/459155c1caccc19e677c71474158f979\" tg-width=\"291\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Micron.<blockquote>资料来源：美光。</blockquote> More recently, Micron's business has been on a better operating momentum, to some extent driven by the pandemic, with demand for consumer electronics increasing substantially across the globe, which was a strong tailwind for the memory and storage chip market, while other segments reported lower demand, such as automotive.<blockquote>最近，美光的业务运营势头有所改善，这在一定程度上是受到疫情的推动，全球对消费电子产品的需求大幅增长，这对内存和存储芯片市场来说是一个强劲的推动力，而其他细分市场则报告需求较低，例如汽车。</blockquote> This mixed backdrop resulted in lower revenues during the&nbsp;FY 2020, due to a large extent from lower DRAM prices that impacted negatively Micron's revenues and gross margin, Its revenues amounted to $21.4 billion (-8.4% YoY) and its gross margin declined to 31% (vs. 46% in FY 2019). Sales of NAND products increased during the year, boosted by data center customers, but were not enough to offset weakness in the DRAM segment. Regarding costs and R&amp;D, Micron has a good discipline and these costs did not increase significantly compared to the previous year. Micron's bottom-line declined by 57% YoY to $2.7 billion, and its EPS was $2.37 (vs. $5.51 per share in FY 2019).<blockquote>这种复杂的背景导致 2020 财年收入下降，这在很大程度上是由于 DRAM 价格下降对美光的收入和毛利率产生了负面影响，其收入达到 214 亿美元（同比下降 8.4%），毛利率下降至 31%（2019 财年为 46%）。在数据中心客户的推动下，NAND 产品的销售额在年内有所增长，但不足以抵消 DRAM 分部的疲软。在成本和研发方面，美光有很好的纪律，这些成本与上一年相比并没有大幅增加。美光的利润同比下降 57% 至 27 亿美元，每股收益为 2.37 美元（2019 财年为每股 5.51 美元）。</blockquote> During the first nine months of FY 2021, Micron has reported a very strong operating momentum which has enabled it to offset the loss of Huawei as a costumer due to U.S. sanctions (it represented about 12% of Micron's revenues in FY 2019).<blockquote>在2021财年的前九个月，美光报告了非常强劲的运营势头，这使其能够抵消华为作为客户因美国制裁而造成的损失（这约占美光2019财年收入的12%）。</blockquote> In the&nbsp;third quarter of FY 2021, its revenues were 7.4 billion (+36% YoY) boosted by DRAM that reported revenue growth of 52% YoY, due to higher volumes and prices, while NAND's revenues were up by 9% YoY. Its net income more than double from the third quarter of FY 2020, to $2.17 billion, and its net profit margin improved to 29% (vs. 17% in the same quarter of last year). Its free cash flow was $1.5 billion in the quarter, a very good level of cash flow generation compared to accounting profit.<blockquote>2021财年第三季度，其收入为74亿美元（同比增长36%），这得益于DRAM，由于销量和价格上涨，DRAM报告收入同比增长52%，而NAND的收入同比增长9%。其净利润较2020财年第三季度翻了一番多，达到21.7亿美元，净利润率提高到29%（去年同期为17%）。该季度的自由现金流为 15 亿美元，与会计利润相比，现金流产生水平非常好。</blockquote> Going forward, Micron is very positive about the demand outlook in the memory segment, supported by data center costumers and new product developments that should support volume growth in the coming years. On the other hand, there is some negative sentiment in the market about future memory prices, which would be negative for the company's revenue growth in the coming quarters. For instance, a&nbsp;Morgan Stanley(MS) analyst has recently downgraded Micron because he expect s DRAM prices to be in a late stage cycle has the supply-demand situation is becoming more balanced.<blockquote>展望未来，美光对存储器领域的需求前景非常乐观，数据中心客户和新产品开发将支持未来几年的销量增长。另一方面，市场上对未来内存价格存在一些负面情绪，这将对公司未来几个季度的收入增长产生负面影响。例如，一个摩根士丹利(MS)分析师最近下调了美光的评级，因为他预计DRAM价格将处于周期的后期，供需形势正变得更加平衡。</blockquote> Nevertheless, according to&nbsp;analysts' estimates, Micron should report higher revenues in FY 2022 and FY 2023 (to $36.7 billion and $40 billion, respectively) and the business is only expected to slow down thereafter. Its bottom-line is estimated to go up by 86% YoY in FY 2022, but to drop in the following years, which show to some extent that Micron's current strong growth may not be sustainable over the medium term.<blockquote>尽管如此，根据分析师的估计，美光在 2022 财年和 2023 财年应该会报告更高的收入（分别达到 367 亿美元和 400 亿美元），此后业务预计只会放缓。其利润预计在2022财年将同比增长86%，但在随后几年将下降，这在一定程度上表明美光目前的强劲增长在中期内可能不可持续。</blockquote> Regarding its balance sheet, Micron has a good situation, given that its net cash position was around $3.1 billion at the end of last quarter, thus its financial profile is strong and it can return excess capital to shareholders.<blockquote>关于其资产负债表，美光的情况良好，鉴于其上季度末的净现金头寸约为31亿美元，因此其财务状况强劲，可以将多余资本返还给股东。</blockquote> Indeed, Micron has performed historically share buybacks, but more recently decided to start distributing a&nbsp;dividend, which shows some confidence about the company's future business prospects and its ability to return capital to shareholders in a recurring basis. Its quarterly dividend was set at only $0.10 per share, which lead to a modest dividend yield, but the goal is to gradually increase the dividend over the next few years.<blockquote>事实上，美光历来曾进行过股票回购，但最近决定开始派发股息，这表明对公司未来的业务前景及其定期向股东返还资本的能力充满信心。其季度股息仅为每股0.10美元，这导致股息收益率适中，但目标是在未来几年逐步提高股息。</blockquote> Bottom Line<blockquote>底线</blockquote> Micron is reporting strong growth and medium-term prospects are good due to several growth trends of AI, 5G and others. However, the memory market is highly cyclical and there are some worries that its current strong trend may not last much.<blockquote>由于人工智能、5G等多个增长趋势，美光报告增长强劲，中期前景良好。然而，内存市场具有高度周期性，有人担心其当前的强劲趋势可能不会持续太久。</blockquote> The semiconductor industry has secular long-term growth prospects, but in my opinion the best way to invest in this theme is through companies that have some sort of competitive advantage and pricing power, such as&nbsp;ASML(ASML) that has a monopoly in the EUV technology. Micron does not fit that criteria and for that reason I was inclined to avoid it.<blockquote>半导体行业具有长期增长前景，但在我看来，投资这一主题的最佳方式是通过具有某种竞争优势和定价权的公司，例如阿斯麦（ASML）垄断了 EUV 技术。美光不符合这个标准，因此我倾向于避免它。</blockquote> However, I find its&nbsp;valuation&nbsp;as ridiculously cheap, given that based on 2022 and 2023 earnings it is currently trading at less than 7x forward earnings. This is extremely undemanding and even if earnings estimates come down somewhat, Micron would still be trading at a much lower valuation than its peers and its own historical average (about 11.5x over the past five years).<blockquote>然而，我发现它的估值便宜得离谱，因为根据 2022 年和 2023 年的收益，它目前的交易价格不到远期收益的 7 倍。这要求极低，即使盈利预期有所下降，美光的交易估值仍将远低于同行和自身历史平均水平（过去五年约为 11.5 倍）。</blockquote> This means that even though Micron is a cyclical play within the semiconductor industry (my investment approach is to buy mainly secular growth companies), its valuation is too much cheap to ignore and upside potential looks good if pricing in the memory market remains strong. I have bought a small stake in Micron (about 3% of my portfolio) and intend to hold it for a while, but if pricing in the memory market starts to show weakness I most likely will sell my stake.<blockquote>这意味着，尽管美光是半导体行业的周期性公司（我的投资方法是主要购买长期成长型公司），但其估值太便宜了，不容忽视，如果内存市场的定价保持强劲，上行潜力看起来不错。我已经购买了美光的少量股份（约占我投资组合的 3%），并打算持有一段时间，但如果内存市场的定价开始出现疲软，我很可能会出售我的股份。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453997-micron-is-too-cheap-to-ignore\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MU":"美光科技"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453997-micron-is-too-cheap-to-ignore","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135345797","content_text":"Summary\n\nI invest mainly in secular growth companies and would, therefore, avoid Micron because the memory and storage segment is highly cyclical.\nMicron is reporting strong growth in the past few quarters and this trend is expected to remain positive over the next couple of years.\nIts valuation at less than 7x forward earnings is very undemanding and makes it a good cyclical play in the semiconductor industry.\n\nSundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nMicron Technology(MU) is a cyclical play within the semiconductor industry and I prefer to invest in secular growth companies, but its valuation is so cheap that it makes a very compelling investment right now.\nCompany Overview\nMicron is one of the largest semiconductor companies in the world, measured by its more than $21 billion in revenues generated last year. The company is focused on the memory and storage products segment, through its DRAM, NAND and NOR technologies. By technology, DRAM is by far the most important one, being responsible for more than two thirds of Micron's revenues.\nSource: Micron.\nMicron was founded in 1978 and is nowadays present in some 17 countries around the world and has 13 manufacturing sites and 14 customer labs in the U.S., China Mainland, Taiwan and other areas. It is traded on the NASDAQ and has a market value of about $83 billion.\nThe semiconductor industry faces fierce competition and this means that for Micron to remain competitive it must invest continuously in new products and technologies to differentiate itself from other players. Its closest competitors are Samsung Electronics(OTC:SSNLF) and SK Hynix, two companies based in South Korea, thus manufacturing costs is also an important factor for Micron to be competitive in the marketplace. According to Statista, Samsung is the largest player in this market segment, followed by SK and Micron, while other players have much smaller market shares.\nEven though the semiconductor industry is generally considered to be a cyclical industry, its prospects are quite good due to new technologies that are expected to boost demand over the next few years.\nGrowth\nAs I've analyzed in a previous article on \"ASML: A Fantastic Company For Long-Term Investors\", the semiconductor industry has very good long-term growth prospects due to several sources of innovation that should support growth for many years down the road.\nModern technology is constantly changing and new developments are constantly pushing for new applications of microchips, including memory and storage. The volume of data is expected to grow strongly over the coming years, through technological advances like 5G, Big Data, autonomous vehicles, the internet of things, beyond others. This backdrop is very positive for Micron's growth, being specifically exposed to secular growth trends of AI, 5G, machine learning and autonomous vehicles.\nThis means that Micron is directly exposed to several growth sources over the coming years and its total addressable market is expected to increase substantially over the next decade. This secular growth trend was even accelerated by the coronavirus pandemic, with demand for gaming, laptops and other products increasing rapidly, being a strong cyclical support for Micron's growth beyond its secular growth tailwinds.\nAccording to MarketWatch, the semiconductor memory market is expected to be around $134 in annual sales by 2027, a compounded annual growth rate of 5.9% from 2021-27. Even though this is a positive backdrop, the overall semiconductor industry is projected to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% during 2021-28, thus the memory market may not be the best sub-sector to be exposed to secular growth trends supporting this industry over the coming years. However, Micron has a higher estimate of the total available market for memory and storage by 2024, thus growth opportunities for the company may be higher than what the market is currently expecting.\nSource: Micron.\nDespite good growth prospects over the coming years, the memory and storage segment is usually considered more cyclical than other segments and costumers are structurally reluctant to enter into long-term, fixed-price commitments. This means that Micron is highly exposed to the supply/demand situation in the market and its pricing power is somewhat low over the medium to long term.\nBeyond that, the company also accepts orders that may be adjusted in terms of pricing by the time of shipment, showing that even in the short-term its pricing power is rather low. This is also why the company does not consider its order backlog to be a good indicator of future sales, which means that forecasting Micron's revenues and earnings in a time frame of 3-5 years is a tough exercise that most likely will be incorrect compared to the actual numbers the company will report in the succeeding periods.\nFinancial Overview\nRegarding its financial performance, Micron has a mixed history showing that its business is clearly cyclical and can report strong swings on an annual basis. Indeed, even though Micron's revenues have increased at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.4% from fiscal years (FY) 2016-20 (which end s in September), its revenues declined by 23% in FY 2019 and 8.4% in FY 2020. Moreover, its net income is also highly volatile, reporting $14 billion in FY 2018 and only $2.7 billion in FY 2020.\nThis clearly shows that Micron is highly exposed to the ups and downs of the market, which can change quite dramatically in a short period of time. This can also be seen by Micron's long-term trend of its EBITDA margin, which is highly volatile even though it has consistently improved over the years.\nSource: Micron.\nMore recently, Micron's business has been on a better operating momentum, to some extent driven by the pandemic, with demand for consumer electronics increasing substantially across the globe, which was a strong tailwind for the memory and storage chip market, while other segments reported lower demand, such as automotive.\nThis mixed backdrop resulted in lower revenues during the FY 2020, due to a large extent from lower DRAM prices that impacted negatively Micron's revenues and gross margin, Its revenues amounted to $21.4 billion (-8.4% YoY) and its gross margin declined to 31% (vs. 46% in FY 2019). Sales of NAND products increased during the year, boosted by data center customers, but were not enough to offset weakness in the DRAM segment. Regarding costs and R&D, Micron has a good discipline and these costs did not increase significantly compared to the previous year. Micron's bottom-line declined by 57% YoY to $2.7 billion, and its EPS was $2.37 (vs. $5.51 per share in FY 2019).\nDuring the first nine months of FY 2021, Micron has reported a very strong operating momentum which has enabled it to offset the loss of Huawei as a costumer due to U.S. sanctions (it represented about 12% of Micron's revenues in FY 2019).\nIn the third quarter of FY 2021, its revenues were 7.4 billion (+36% YoY) boosted by DRAM that reported revenue growth of 52% YoY, due to higher volumes and prices, while NAND's revenues were up by 9% YoY. Its net income more than double from the third quarter of FY 2020, to $2.17 billion, and its net profit margin improved to 29% (vs. 17% in the same quarter of last year). Its free cash flow was $1.5 billion in the quarter, a very good level of cash flow generation compared to accounting profit.\nGoing forward, Micron is very positive about the demand outlook in the memory segment, supported by data center costumers and new product developments that should support volume growth in the coming years. On the other hand, there is some negative sentiment in the market about future memory prices, which would be negative for the company's revenue growth in the coming quarters. For instance, a Morgan Stanley(MS) analyst has recently downgraded Micron because he expect s DRAM prices to be in a late stage cycle has the supply-demand situation is becoming more balanced.\nNevertheless, according to analysts' estimates, Micron should report higher revenues in FY 2022 and FY 2023 (to $36.7 billion and $40 billion, respectively) and the business is only expected to slow down thereafter. Its bottom-line is estimated to go up by 86% YoY in FY 2022, but to drop in the following years, which show to some extent that Micron's current strong growth may not be sustainable over the medium term.\nRegarding its balance sheet, Micron has a good situation, given that its net cash position was around $3.1 billion at the end of last quarter, thus its financial profile is strong and it can return excess capital to shareholders.\nIndeed, Micron has performed historically share buybacks, but more recently decided to start distributing a dividend, which shows some confidence about the company's future business prospects and its ability to return capital to shareholders in a recurring basis. Its quarterly dividend was set at only $0.10 per share, which lead to a modest dividend yield, but the goal is to gradually increase the dividend over the next few years.\nBottom Line\nMicron is reporting strong growth and medium-term prospects are good due to several growth trends of AI, 5G and others. However, the memory market is highly cyclical and there are some worries that its current strong trend may not last much.\nThe semiconductor industry has secular long-term growth prospects, but in my opinion the best way to invest in this theme is through companies that have some sort of competitive advantage and pricing power, such as ASML(ASML) that has a monopoly in the EUV technology. Micron does not fit that criteria and for that reason I was inclined to avoid it.\nHowever, I find its valuation as ridiculously cheap, given that based on 2022 and 2023 earnings it is currently trading at less than 7x forward earnings. This is extremely undemanding and even if earnings estimates come down somewhat, Micron would still be trading at a much lower valuation than its peers and its own historical average (about 11.5x over the past five years).\nThis means that even though Micron is a cyclical play within the semiconductor industry (my investment approach is to buy mainly secular growth companies), its valuation is too much cheap to ignore and upside potential looks good if pricing in the memory market remains strong. I have bought a small stake in Micron (about 3% of my portfolio) and intend to hold it for a while, but if pricing in the memory market starts to show weakness I most likely will sell my stake.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2086,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":28,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/889580645"}