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2021-09-09

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Companies are now issuing more stock than they did at top of the internet bubble and here’s why that matters<blockquote>公司现在发行的股票比互联网泡沫时期还要多，这就是为什么这很重要</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":889587603,"tweetId":"889587603","gmtCreate":1631158824202,"gmtModify":1632884232216,"author":{"id":3581644759078400,"idStr":"3581644759078400","authorId":3581644759078400,"authorIdStr":"3581644759078400","name":"Marvin88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3dcf0e15ad150fb70b24cceb4262b6c","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":3,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>[开心]&nbsp;</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>[开心]&nbsp;</body></html>","text":"[开心]","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/889587603","repostId":1140374706,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140374706","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631157615,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1140374706?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-09 11:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Companies are now issuing more stock than they did at top of the internet bubble and here’s why that matters<blockquote>公司现在发行的股票比互联网泡沫时期还要多，这就是为什么这很重要</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140374706","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Record stock issuance is not necessarily bearish if it is accompanied by high levels of buybacks or ","content":"Record stock issuance is not necessarily bearish if it is accompanied by high levels of buybacks or M&amp;A activity <blockquote>如果伴随着高水平的回购或并购活动，创纪录的股票发行不一定是看跌的</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f7568de316094fa33ca16baac11bdc7\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"487\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">MarketWatch photo illustration/iStockphoto<blockquote>MarketWatch照片插图/iStockphoto</blockquote> Stock market bulls are needlessly worrying about the recent record pace of new stock issuance. In fact, when viewed properly, the current pace of stock issuance is actually neutral for the stock market — if not slightly bullish.<blockquote>股市多头对近期创纪录的新股发行速度感到不必要的担忧。事实上，如果正确看待，目前的股票发行速度对股市来说实际上是中性的——如果不是略微看涨的话。</blockquote> In other words, what appears to some to be a sign of a bubble about to burst may actually mean something closer to its opposite.<blockquote>换句话说，在一些人看来是泡沫即将破裂的迹象，实际上可能意味着更接近其对立面的东西。</blockquote> Let’s start with the numbers. According to the Federal Reserve, new stock issuance has totaled $582 billion over the past four quarters from non-financial U.S. corporations. That’s far and away a record. The previous record came at the top of the late 1990s’ internet bubble, when the comparable total was $354 billion. The recent pace is more than 60% higher than the pace then.<blockquote>让我们从数字开始。根据美联储的数据，过去四个季度，美国非金融企业的新股发行总额为5820亿美元。这绝对是一项记录。此前的纪录是在20世纪90年代末互联网泡沫的顶峰时期创下的，当时可比总额为3540亿美元。最近的步伐比当时的步伐高出60%以上。</blockquote> Merely matching records set at the top of the internet bubble would be scary enough, much less breaking those records by 60%. And it makes sense that high levels of stock issuance would be bearish: companies have a better sense than the rest of us when their shares are overvalued, so it’s a warning sign when they are eagerly issuing new shares.<blockquote>仅仅是匹配互联网泡沫顶部创下的记录就已经足够可怕了，更不用说打破这些记录60%了。高水平的股票发行将是看跌的，这是有道理的：当公司的股票被高估时，他们比我们其他人更有感觉，所以当他们急切地发行新股时，这是一个警告信号。</blockquote> The reason record share issuance may not actually be bearish is that there has been a heavy volume of stock buybacks (or repurchases), as well as of mergers and acquisitions. Each of these other activities represents the opposite of new stock issuance, since they reduce the number of shares outstanding. Record stock issuance is not necessarily bearish if it is accompanied by high levels of buybacks or M&amp;A activity.<blockquote>创纪录的股票发行实际上可能并不看跌的原因是，已经有大量的股票回购（或回购）以及并购。这些其他活动都与新股发行相反，因为它们减少了已发行股票的数量。如果伴随着高水平的回购或并购活动，创纪录的股票发行不一定是看跌的。</blockquote> That means we need to focus on net, rather than gross, issuance. When we do that, a far different picture emerges. In fact, according to data from the Federal Reserve through the first quarter of 2021, as well as more recent data from TrimTabs, net issuance for non-financial corporations is negative — just as it’s been for many years now. That means that non-financial corporations on balance are retiring more shares than they are issuing.<blockquote>这意味着我们需要关注净发行量，而不是总发行量。当我们这样做时，一幅截然不同的画面出现了。事实上，根据美联储截至2021年第一季度的数据以及TrimTabs的最新数据，非金融企业的净发行量为负——就像多年来一样。这意味着，总体而言，非金融企业退出的股票多于发行的股票。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91353b37c3edb42e77bf90089e6c6931\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The recent chart plots the Federal Reserve data. Notice that the last time there was positive net issuance was in early 2009, at the bottom of the bear market that accompanied the Global Financial Crisis. These two series came close to being in balance during the economic lockdown a year ago, but that was short lived and net issuance is now back solidly in negative territory.<blockquote>最近的图表绘制了美联储的数据。请注意，上一次出现正净发行量是在2009年初，当时正值全球金融危机引发的熊市底部。在一年前的经济封锁期间，这两个系列接近平衡，但这是短暂的，净发行量现在又回到了负值。</blockquote> Is it a good sign for equities that net issuance is negative? Perhaps, according to a 2018 study in the Financial Analysts Journal entitled “Net Buybacks and the Seven Dwarfs.” The authors of that study found that net issuance explains the bulk of the difference in different countries’ stock returns over the last several decades.<blockquote>净发行量为负对股票来说是一个好兆头吗？也许，根据2018年的一项研究金融分析师杂志题为“净回购和七个小矮人该研究的作者发现，净发行解释了过去几十年不同国家股票回报差异的大部分原因。</blockquote> Note carefully that the authors didn’t investigate whether net issuance has any explanatory power for the short term. To help fill in that gap, I measured the correlation between net issuance and the S&amp;P 500’s&nbsp;subsequent total real return. I focused on issuance over periods as short as the trailing quarter to as long as the trailing three years, and on the S&amp;P 500’s subsequent return over periods as short as one quarter and as long as three years. My database covered all years since 1988.<blockquote>请仔细注意，作者没有调查净发行量是否对短期有任何解释力。为了帮助填补这一空白，我衡量了净发行量与标普500随后的总实际回报之间的相关性。我关注的是短至过去一个季度、长至过去三年的发行情况，以及短至一个季度、长至三年的标普500后续回报情况。我的数据库涵盖了1988年以来的所有年份。</blockquote> I came up empty in my search for statistically significant correlations, regardless of the length of the periods measured.<blockquote>我在寻找统计学上显著的相关性时一无所获，不管测量的周期有多长。</blockquote> The conclusion I draw: It would be going too far to interpret recent net issuance trends as outright bullish for the stock market’s prospects. But the bulls at least can take some solace in knowing that the share issuance data are not screaming that a bubble is about to burst.<blockquote>我得出的结论是：将最近的净发行趋势解读为对股市前景的彻底看涨，那就太过分了。但多头至少可以得到一些安慰，因为他们知道股票发行数据并没有尖叫着泡沫即将破裂。</blockquote> Let me hasten to add that the stock market may nevertheless be forming a bubble. Net issuance is not the only indicator out there, needless to say. The point of this column is that share issuance is not an additional reason, above and beyond others, for believing that such a bubble is forming. But it is curious that some of those who believe a bubble is forming are relying on an argument that is so obviously misleading.<blockquote>让我赶紧补充一点，股票市场可能正在形成泡沫。不用说，净发行量并不是唯一的指标。本专栏的观点是，除了其他原因之外，股票发行并不是相信这种泡沫正在形成的额外原因。但奇怪的是，一些相信泡沫正在形成的人所依赖的论点显然具有误导性。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Companies are now issuing more stock than they did at top of the internet bubble and here’s why that matters<blockquote>公司现在发行的股票比互联网泡沫时期还要多，这就是为什么这很重要</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCompanies are now issuing more stock than they did at top of the internet bubble and here’s why that matters<blockquote>公司现在发行的股票比互联网泡沫时期还要多，这就是为什么这很重要</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-09-09 11:20\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nRecord stock issuance is not necessarily bearish if it is accompanied by high levels of buybacks or M&amp;A activity <blockquote>如果伴随着高水平的回购或并购活动，创纪录的股票发行不一定是看跌的</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f7568de316094fa33ca16baac11bdc7\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"487\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">MarketWatch photo illustration/iStockphoto<blockquote>MarketWatch照片插图/iStockphoto</blockquote> Stock market bulls are needlessly worrying about the recent record pace of new stock issuance. In fact, when viewed properly, the current pace of stock issuance is actually neutral for the stock market — if not slightly bullish.<blockquote>股市多头对近期创纪录的新股发行速度感到不必要的担忧。事实上，如果正确看待，目前的股票发行速度对股市来说实际上是中性的——如果不是略微看涨的话。</blockquote> In other words, what appears to some to be a sign of a bubble about to burst may actually mean something closer to its opposite.<blockquote>换句话说，在一些人看来是泡沫即将破裂的迹象，实际上可能意味着更接近其对立面的东西。</blockquote> Let’s start with the numbers. According to the Federal Reserve, new stock issuance has totaled $582 billion over the past four quarters from non-financial U.S. corporations. That’s far and away a record. The previous record came at the top of the late 1990s’ internet bubble, when the comparable total was $354 billion. The recent pace is more than 60% higher than the pace then.<blockquote>让我们从数字开始。根据美联储的数据，过去四个季度，美国非金融企业的新股发行总额为5820亿美元。这绝对是一项记录。此前的纪录是在20世纪90年代末互联网泡沫的顶峰时期创下的，当时可比总额为3540亿美元。最近的步伐比当时的步伐高出60%以上。</blockquote> Merely matching records set at the top of the internet bubble would be scary enough, much less breaking those records by 60%. And it makes sense that high levels of stock issuance would be bearish: companies have a better sense than the rest of us when their shares are overvalued, so it’s a warning sign when they are eagerly issuing new shares.<blockquote>仅仅是匹配互联网泡沫顶部创下的记录就已经足够可怕了，更不用说打破这些记录60%了。高水平的股票发行将是看跌的，这是有道理的：当公司的股票被高估时，他们比我们其他人更有感觉，所以当他们急切地发行新股时，这是一个警告信号。</blockquote> The reason record share issuance may not actually be bearish is that there has been a heavy volume of stock buybacks (or repurchases), as well as of mergers and acquisitions. Each of these other activities represents the opposite of new stock issuance, since they reduce the number of shares outstanding. Record stock issuance is not necessarily bearish if it is accompanied by high levels of buybacks or M&amp;A activity.<blockquote>创纪录的股票发行实际上可能并不看跌的原因是，已经有大量的股票回购（或回购）以及并购。这些其他活动都与新股发行相反，因为它们减少了已发行股票的数量。如果伴随着高水平的回购或并购活动，创纪录的股票发行不一定是看跌的。</blockquote> That means we need to focus on net, rather than gross, issuance. When we do that, a far different picture emerges. In fact, according to data from the Federal Reserve through the first quarter of 2021, as well as more recent data from TrimTabs, net issuance for non-financial corporations is negative — just as it’s been for many years now. That means that non-financial corporations on balance are retiring more shares than they are issuing.<blockquote>这意味着我们需要关注净发行量，而不是总发行量。当我们这样做时，一幅截然不同的画面出现了。事实上，根据美联储截至2021年第一季度的数据以及TrimTabs的最新数据，非金融企业的净发行量为负——就像多年来一样。这意味着，总体而言，非金融企业退出的股票多于发行的股票。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91353b37c3edb42e77bf90089e6c6931\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The recent chart plots the Federal Reserve data. Notice that the last time there was positive net issuance was in early 2009, at the bottom of the bear market that accompanied the Global Financial Crisis. These two series came close to being in balance during the economic lockdown a year ago, but that was short lived and net issuance is now back solidly in negative territory.<blockquote>最近的图表绘制了美联储的数据。请注意，上一次出现正净发行量是在2009年初，当时正值全球金融危机引发的熊市底部。在一年前的经济封锁期间，这两个系列接近平衡，但这是短暂的，净发行量现在又回到了负值。</blockquote> Is it a good sign for equities that net issuance is negative? Perhaps, according to a 2018 study in the Financial Analysts Journal entitled “Net Buybacks and the Seven Dwarfs.” The authors of that study found that net issuance explains the bulk of the difference in different countries’ stock returns over the last several decades.<blockquote>净发行量为负对股票来说是一个好兆头吗？也许，根据2018年的一项研究金融分析师杂志题为“净回购和七个小矮人该研究的作者发现，净发行解释了过去几十年不同国家股票回报差异的大部分原因。</blockquote> Note carefully that the authors didn’t investigate whether net issuance has any explanatory power for the short term. To help fill in that gap, I measured the correlation between net issuance and the S&amp;P 500’s&nbsp;subsequent total real return. I focused on issuance over periods as short as the trailing quarter to as long as the trailing three years, and on the S&amp;P 500’s subsequent return over periods as short as one quarter and as long as three years. My database covered all years since 1988.<blockquote>请仔细注意，作者没有调查净发行量是否对短期有任何解释力。为了帮助填补这一空白，我衡量了净发行量与标普500随后的总实际回报之间的相关性。我关注的是短至过去一个季度、长至过去三年的发行情况，以及短至一个季度、长至三年的标普500后续回报情况。我的数据库涵盖了1988年以来的所有年份。</blockquote> I came up empty in my search for statistically significant correlations, regardless of the length of the periods measured.<blockquote>我在寻找统计学上显著的相关性时一无所获，不管测量的周期有多长。</blockquote> The conclusion I draw: It would be going too far to interpret recent net issuance trends as outright bullish for the stock market’s prospects. But the bulls at least can take some solace in knowing that the share issuance data are not screaming that a bubble is about to burst.<blockquote>我得出的结论是：将最近的净发行趋势解读为对股市前景的彻底看涨，那就太过分了。但多头至少可以得到一些安慰，因为他们知道股票发行数据并没有尖叫着泡沫即将破裂。</blockquote> Let me hasten to add that the stock market may nevertheless be forming a bubble. Net issuance is not the only indicator out there, needless to say. The point of this column is that share issuance is not an additional reason, above and beyond others, for believing that such a bubble is forming. But it is curious that some of those who believe a bubble is forming are relying on an argument that is so obviously misleading.<blockquote>让我赶紧补充一点，股票市场可能正在形成泡沫。不用说，净发行量并不是唯一的指标。本专栏的观点是，除了其他原因之外，股票发行并不是相信这种泡沫正在形成的额外原因。但奇怪的是，一些相信泡沫正在形成的人所依赖的论点显然具有误导性。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/companies-are-issuing-more-stock-than-they-did-at-top-of-the-internet-bubble-and-heres-why-that-matters-11631052165?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/companies-are-issuing-more-stock-than-they-did-at-top-of-the-internet-bubble-and-heres-why-that-matters-11631052165?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140374706","content_text":"Record stock issuance is not necessarily bearish if it is accompanied by high levels of buybacks or M&A activity \nMarketWatch photo illustration/iStockphoto\n\n\nStock market bulls are needlessly worrying about the recent record pace of new stock issuance. In fact, when viewed properly, the current pace of stock issuance is actually neutral for the stock market — if not slightly bullish.\nIn other words, what appears to some to be a sign of a bubble about to burst may actually mean something closer to its opposite.\nLet’s start with the numbers. According to the Federal Reserve, new stock issuance has totaled $582 billion over the past four quarters from non-financial U.S. corporations. That’s far and away a record. The previous record came at the top of the late 1990s’ internet bubble, when the comparable total was $354 billion. The recent pace is more than 60% higher than the pace then.\nMerely matching records set at the top of the internet bubble would be scary enough, much less breaking those records by 60%. And it makes sense that high levels of stock issuance would be bearish: companies have a better sense than the rest of us when their shares are overvalued, so it’s a warning sign when they are eagerly issuing new shares.\nThe reason record share issuance may not actually be bearish is that there has been a heavy volume of stock buybacks (or repurchases), as well as of mergers and acquisitions. Each of these other activities represents the opposite of new stock issuance, since they reduce the number of shares outstanding. Record stock issuance is not necessarily bearish if it is accompanied by high levels of buybacks or M&A activity.\n\nThat means we need to focus on net, rather than gross, issuance. When we do that, a far different picture emerges. In fact, according to data from the Federal Reserve through the first quarter of 2021, as well as more recent data from TrimTabs, net issuance for non-financial corporations is negative — just as it’s been for many years now. That means that non-financial corporations on balance are retiring more shares than they are issuing.\n\n\n\nThe recent chart plots the Federal Reserve data. Notice that the last time there was positive net issuance was in early 2009, at the bottom of the bear market that accompanied the Global Financial Crisis. These two series came close to being in balance during the economic lockdown a year ago, but that was short lived and net issuance is now back solidly in negative territory.\nIs it a good sign for equities that net issuance is negative? Perhaps, according to a 2018 study in the Financial Analysts Journal entitled “Net Buybacks and the Seven Dwarfs.” The authors of that study found that net issuance explains the bulk of the difference in different countries’ stock returns over the last several decades.\n\nNote carefully that the authors didn’t investigate whether net issuance has any explanatory power for the short term. To help fill in that gap, I measured the correlation between net issuance and the S&P 500’s subsequent total real return. I focused on issuance over periods as short as the trailing quarter to as long as the trailing three years, and on the S&P 500’s subsequent return over periods as short as one quarter and as long as three years. My database covered all years since 1988.\n\nI came up empty in my search for statistically significant correlations, regardless of the length of the periods measured.\nThe conclusion I draw: It would be going too far to interpret recent net issuance trends as outright bullish for the stock market’s prospects. But the bulls at least can take some solace in knowing that the share issuance data are not screaming that a bubble is about to burst.\nLet me hasten to add that the stock market may nevertheless be forming a bubble. Net issuance is not the only indicator out there, needless to say. The point of this column is that share issuance is not an additional reason, above and beyond others, for believing that such a bubble is forming. But it is curious that some of those who believe a bubble is forming are relying on an argument that is so obviously misleading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1536,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/889587603"}