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2021-08-04
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Robinhood Q2 Revenues From Order Flow Tumble 34%<blockquote>Robinhood第二季度订单流收入下降34%</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":890000434,"tweetId":"890000434","gmtCreate":1628063899128,"gmtModify":1633753928594,"author":{"id":3557462853272759,"idStr":"3557462853272759","authorId":3557462853272759,"authorIdStr":"3557462853272759","name":"SkyMah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50fc4afe7fcad8131410ec366953f656","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":31,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Like pls</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Like pls</p></body></html>","text":"Like pls","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/890000434","repostId":1173852688,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1173852688","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628063180,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1173852688?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-04 15:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Robinhood Q2 Revenues From Order Flow Tumble 34%<blockquote>Robinhood第二季度订单流收入下降34%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173852688","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Yesterday Robinhood released its preliminary revenue numbers for Q2 when it published itsForm 606 an","content":"<p>Yesterday Robinhood released its preliminary revenue numbers for Q2 when it published itsForm 606 and 607 disclosurefor April through June. While the data covers payment for orderflow (PFOF), this remains the biggest component of the recently IPOed company's top-line (dogecoin revenues notwithstanding), so it serves as a good proxy for what to expect when the company publishes its first earnings release as a public company.</p><p><blockquote>昨天，Robinhood发布了4月至6月的606和607表格披露，公布了第二季度的初步收入数据。虽然这些数据涵盖了订单流支付(PFOF)，但这仍然是这家最近首次公开募股的公司营收的最大组成部分（尽管有狗狗币收入），因此它可以很好地代表该公司发布首次财报时的预期情况作为一家上市公司发布。</blockquote></p><p> The numbers were quite disappointing, and a stark reminder of just how fickle retail trading can be.</p><p><blockquote>这些数字相当令人失望，这清楚地提醒人们零售交易是多么变化无常。</blockquote></p><p> After a blistering Q1 which saw a record surge in retail trading, and which translated into record payment for orderflow to Robinhood to the tune of $331 million, the bulk of which was for option orderflow at $198 million and was paid by Citadel which accounted for roughly 43% ($142 million) of Robinhood's total Q1 revenues, things slowed down substantially in Q2.</p><p><blockquote>在经历了创纪录的第一季度之后，零售交易量激增，并转化为向Robinhood支付的orderflow金额达到创纪录的3.31亿美元，其中大部分用于期权orderflow，金额为1.98亿美元，由Citadel支付，约占Robinhood第一季度总收入的43%（1.42亿美元），第二季度的情况大幅放缓。</blockquote></p><p> As the chart below shows, the retail trading frenzy ended with a bang in April when Robinhood's payment for orderflow was just $65.9 million, and then dropped further in May, sliding to just $57.4 million - the lowest since October. The good news: there was a modest rebound in June when as we discussed previously, retail investors shifted their gamma-ramping attention to tech giants such as Amazon and Apple, resulting in PFOF revenue of $93.6 million.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，零售交易狂潮在4月份戛然而止，当时Robinhood对orderflow的支付额仅为6590万美元，然后在5月份进一步下降，下滑至仅5740万美元——为10月份以来的最低水平。好消息是：正如我们之前讨论的，6月份出现了小幅反弹，当时散户投资者将伽马增长的注意力转向了亚马逊和苹果等科技巨头，导致PFOF收入达到9360万美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10c58d48d38d33f480f1807b8af05c7f\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"740\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> What we also found notable is that Robinhood's revenue from orderflow from S&P and non S&P500 stocks was down 25% Y/Y, with the only value that Robinhood providers to internalizers such as Citadel is selling it option traffic which rose 48% from $111.1 million a year ago to $164.8 million in Q2 2021. How soon until some dedicated option market-maker decides to steal Robinhood's market share and aggressively starts dumping option traffic data to the Citadels of the world;<b>alternatively what happens when the \"gamma\" trade is no longer a moneymaking cash cow, and retail traders get fed up with selling weekly calls and puts when their premiums gets wiped out after a major market shakeout?</b></p><p><blockquote>我们还发现值得注意的是，Robinhood来自S&P和非S&P 500股票orderflow的收入同比下降了25%，Robinhood提供商向Citadel等内部化者提供的唯一价值是向其出售期权流量，该流量从1.111亿美元增长了48%一年前增至2021年第二季度的1.648亿美元。一些专门的期权做市商决定窃取Robinhood的市场份额，并积极开始向世界各地的城堡倾倒期权流量数据；<b>或者，当“伽马”交易不再是赚钱的摇钱树，散户交易者厌倦了在市场重大震荡后溢价被抹去时出售每周评级和看跌期权，会发生什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> Question aside, the fade of retail trading mania in Q2 was especially acute on a quarterly basis, as PFOF revenue tumbled 34.4% sequentially and were up just 20.4% from the year ago quarter when retail trading mania was still in its infancy.</p><p><blockquote>抛开问题不谈，第二季度零售交易狂热的消退按季度计算尤为严重，PFOF收入环比下降34.4%，较去年同期仅增长20.4%，当时零售交易狂热仍处于起步阶段。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3840be05d08dbdf2a87fbb6c97b568d\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"740\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> And yes, for those wondering, Citadel still remains Robinhood's top customer, accounting for $81.6 million, or 27.6% of the company's total Q2 PFOF. That said, clearly Citadel's contribution to Robinhood's top line is declining and in June it accounted for just 35.3% of total PFOF, the lowest on record.</p><p><blockquote>是的，对于那些想知道的人来说，Citadel仍然是Robinhood的最大客户，占该公司第二季度PFOF总额的27.6%。尽管如此，Citadel对Robinhood营收的贡献显然正在下降，6月份仅占PFOF总额的35.3%，为有记录以来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/933a087b330c1a69de4b21ec2680829a\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"762\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> To be sure, it wasn't just Robinhood: as the following chart from Bloomberg shows all brokers saw a substantial drop in PFOF revenue in Q2, amounting to roughly 27% across the major players, but nobody suffered as much as Robinhood.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，不仅仅是Robinhood：正如彭博社的下图所示，所有经纪商在第二季度的PFOF收入均大幅下降，主要参与者的降幅约为27%，但没有人比Robinhood遭受的损失更大。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/004b806dad72a61d0c8d6f9f633b1e0a\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Which prompts several questions: is Citadel - whose historically generous payments for RH orderflow is what enabled the company's multi-billion valuation - gradually shifting away from its top supplier of bulk retail trading data, and if so, how will Robinhood replace the lost revenue? And perhaps more importantly: with retail trading patterns clearly reflecting inflows of stimulus payments, peaking just after bulk \"stimmy\" checks clear, i.e., in June 2020, and in Q1 2021, is a long Robinhood thesis just a bet on continued stimulus checks from the generous Biden administration? And linked to that, what happens to Robinhood's bread and butter - retail option trades - when retail traders no longer expect free money from the government?</p><p><blockquote>这引发了几个问题：Citadel（其历史上对RH orderflow的慷慨支付使该公司获得了数十亿美元的估值）是否正在逐渐远离其大宗零售交易数据的顶级供应商？如果是这样，Robinhood将如何弥补损失的收入？或许更重要的是：随着零售交易模式清楚地反映了刺激支付的流入，在大宗“刺激”支票兑现后达到峰值，即在2020年6月和2021年Q1，罗宾汉的长篇论文只是对慷慨的拜登政府持续刺激支票的押注吗？与此相关的是，当零售交易者不再期望从政府获得免费资金时，罗宾汉的面包和黄油——零售期权交易会发生什么？</blockquote></p><p> An amusing aside is whether Robinhood will pocket revenues from selling the client order data to Citadel<b>from retail traders who are currently ramping Robinhood's own stock</b>in an attempted gamma squeeze. In other words, has Robinhood created a perpetual motion device where it generates revenue when<i><b>it itself</b></i>becomes the target of outsized client trades, as the case clearly is today?</p><p><blockquote>有趣的是，Robinhood是否会将向Citadel出售客户订单数据的收入收入囊中<b>来自目前正在增持Robinhood自己股票的零售交易员</b>在一次尝试伽马挤压中。换句话说，Robinhood是否创造了一种永动机设备，并在以下情况下产生收入<i><b>它本身</b></i>成为巨额客户交易的目标，就像今天的情况一样？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c5a9a67a1d7544c7665f81cd570cd2e\" tg-width=\"1106\" tg-height=\"723\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Alternatively, one can argue that the simplest trade to bet on an end of generous fiscal stimulus is not shorting the market or betting on an economic slowdown, as these also benefit from the Fed's generous monetary stimulus, but rather just shorting Robinhood stock - once it is permitted - and waiting.</p><p><blockquote>或者，人们可以说，押注慷慨财政刺激结束的最简单的交易不是做空市场或押注经济放缓，因为这些也受益于美联储慷慨的货币刺激，而只是做空Robinhood股票——一旦它是允许的——并等待。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Robinhood Q2 Revenues From Order Flow Tumble 34%<blockquote>Robinhood第二季度订单流收入下降34%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRobinhood Q2 Revenues From Order Flow Tumble 34%<blockquote>Robinhood第二季度订单流收入下降34%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-04 15:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Yesterday Robinhood released its preliminary revenue numbers for Q2 when it published itsForm 606 and 607 disclosurefor April through June. While the data covers payment for orderflow (PFOF), this remains the biggest component of the recently IPOed company's top-line (dogecoin revenues notwithstanding), so it serves as a good proxy for what to expect when the company publishes its first earnings release as a public company.</p><p><blockquote>昨天，Robinhood发布了4月至6月的606和607表格披露，公布了第二季度的初步收入数据。虽然这些数据涵盖了订单流支付(PFOF)，但这仍然是这家最近首次公开募股的公司营收的最大组成部分（尽管有狗狗币收入），因此它可以很好地代表该公司发布首次财报时的预期情况作为一家上市公司发布。</blockquote></p><p> The numbers were quite disappointing, and a stark reminder of just how fickle retail trading can be.</p><p><blockquote>这些数字相当令人失望，这清楚地提醒人们零售交易是多么变化无常。</blockquote></p><p> After a blistering Q1 which saw a record surge in retail trading, and which translated into record payment for orderflow to Robinhood to the tune of $331 million, the bulk of which was for option orderflow at $198 million and was paid by Citadel which accounted for roughly 43% ($142 million) of Robinhood's total Q1 revenues, things slowed down substantially in Q2.</p><p><blockquote>在经历了创纪录的第一季度之后，零售交易量激增，并转化为向Robinhood支付的orderflow金额达到创纪录的3.31亿美元，其中大部分用于期权orderflow，金额为1.98亿美元，由Citadel支付，约占Robinhood第一季度总收入的43%（1.42亿美元），第二季度的情况大幅放缓。</blockquote></p><p> As the chart below shows, the retail trading frenzy ended with a bang in April when Robinhood's payment for orderflow was just $65.9 million, and then dropped further in May, sliding to just $57.4 million - the lowest since October. The good news: there was a modest rebound in June when as we discussed previously, retail investors shifted their gamma-ramping attention to tech giants such as Amazon and Apple, resulting in PFOF revenue of $93.6 million.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，零售交易狂潮在4月份戛然而止，当时Robinhood对orderflow的支付额仅为6590万美元，然后在5月份进一步下降，下滑至仅5740万美元——为10月份以来的最低水平。好消息是：正如我们之前讨论的，6月份出现了小幅反弹，当时散户投资者将伽马增长的注意力转向了亚马逊和苹果等科技巨头，导致PFOF收入达到9360万美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10c58d48d38d33f480f1807b8af05c7f\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"740\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> What we also found notable is that Robinhood's revenue from orderflow from S&P and non S&P500 stocks was down 25% Y/Y, with the only value that Robinhood providers to internalizers such as Citadel is selling it option traffic which rose 48% from $111.1 million a year ago to $164.8 million in Q2 2021. How soon until some dedicated option market-maker decides to steal Robinhood's market share and aggressively starts dumping option traffic data to the Citadels of the world;<b>alternatively what happens when the \"gamma\" trade is no longer a moneymaking cash cow, and retail traders get fed up with selling weekly calls and puts when their premiums gets wiped out after a major market shakeout?</b></p><p><blockquote>我们还发现值得注意的是，Robinhood来自S&P和非S&P 500股票orderflow的收入同比下降了25%，Robinhood提供商向Citadel等内部化者提供的唯一价值是向其出售期权流量，该流量从1.111亿美元增长了48%一年前增至2021年第二季度的1.648亿美元。一些专门的期权做市商决定窃取Robinhood的市场份额，并积极开始向世界各地的城堡倾倒期权流量数据；<b>或者，当“伽马”交易不再是赚钱的摇钱树，散户交易者厌倦了在市场重大震荡后溢价被抹去时出售每周评级和看跌期权，会发生什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> Question aside, the fade of retail trading mania in Q2 was especially acute on a quarterly basis, as PFOF revenue tumbled 34.4% sequentially and were up just 20.4% from the year ago quarter when retail trading mania was still in its infancy.</p><p><blockquote>抛开问题不谈，第二季度零售交易狂热的消退按季度计算尤为严重，PFOF收入环比下降34.4%，较去年同期仅增长20.4%，当时零售交易狂热仍处于起步阶段。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3840be05d08dbdf2a87fbb6c97b568d\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"740\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> And yes, for those wondering, Citadel still remains Robinhood's top customer, accounting for $81.6 million, or 27.6% of the company's total Q2 PFOF. That said, clearly Citadel's contribution to Robinhood's top line is declining and in June it accounted for just 35.3% of total PFOF, the lowest on record.</p><p><blockquote>是的，对于那些想知道的人来说，Citadel仍然是Robinhood的最大客户，占该公司第二季度PFOF总额的27.6%。尽管如此，Citadel对Robinhood营收的贡献显然正在下降，6月份仅占PFOF总额的35.3%，为有记录以来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/933a087b330c1a69de4b21ec2680829a\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"762\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> To be sure, it wasn't just Robinhood: as the following chart from Bloomberg shows all brokers saw a substantial drop in PFOF revenue in Q2, amounting to roughly 27% across the major players, but nobody suffered as much as Robinhood.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，不仅仅是Robinhood：正如彭博社的下图所示，所有经纪商在第二季度的PFOF收入均大幅下降，主要参与者的降幅约为27%，但没有人比Robinhood遭受的损失更大。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/004b806dad72a61d0c8d6f9f633b1e0a\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Which prompts several questions: is Citadel - whose historically generous payments for RH orderflow is what enabled the company's multi-billion valuation - gradually shifting away from its top supplier of bulk retail trading data, and if so, how will Robinhood replace the lost revenue? And perhaps more importantly: with retail trading patterns clearly reflecting inflows of stimulus payments, peaking just after bulk \"stimmy\" checks clear, i.e., in June 2020, and in Q1 2021, is a long Robinhood thesis just a bet on continued stimulus checks from the generous Biden administration? And linked to that, what happens to Robinhood's bread and butter - retail option trades - when retail traders no longer expect free money from the government?</p><p><blockquote>这引发了几个问题：Citadel（其历史上对RH orderflow的慷慨支付使该公司获得了数十亿美元的估值）是否正在逐渐远离其大宗零售交易数据的顶级供应商？如果是这样，Robinhood将如何弥补损失的收入？或许更重要的是：随着零售交易模式清楚地反映了刺激支付的流入，在大宗“刺激”支票兑现后达到峰值，即在2020年6月和2021年Q1，罗宾汉的长篇论文只是对慷慨的拜登政府持续刺激支票的押注吗？与此相关的是，当零售交易者不再期望从政府获得免费资金时，罗宾汉的面包和黄油——零售期权交易会发生什么？</blockquote></p><p> An amusing aside is whether Robinhood will pocket revenues from selling the client order data to Citadel<b>from retail traders who are currently ramping Robinhood's own stock</b>in an attempted gamma squeeze. In other words, has Robinhood created a perpetual motion device where it generates revenue when<i><b>it itself</b></i>becomes the target of outsized client trades, as the case clearly is today?</p><p><blockquote>有趣的是，Robinhood是否会将向Citadel出售客户订单数据的收入收入囊中<b>来自目前正在增持Robinhood自己股票的零售交易员</b>在一次尝试伽马挤压中。换句话说，Robinhood是否创造了一种永动机设备，并在以下情况下产生收入<i><b>它本身</b></i>成为巨额客户交易的目标，就像今天的情况一样？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c5a9a67a1d7544c7665f81cd570cd2e\" tg-width=\"1106\" tg-height=\"723\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Alternatively, one can argue that the simplest trade to bet on an end of generous fiscal stimulus is not shorting the market or betting on an economic slowdown, as these also benefit from the Fed's generous monetary stimulus, but rather just shorting Robinhood stock - once it is permitted - and waiting.</p><p><blockquote>或者，人们可以说，押注慷慨财政刺激结束的最简单的交易不是做空市场或押注经济放缓，因为这些也受益于美联储慷慨的货币刺激，而只是做空Robinhood股票——一旦它是允许的——并等待。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/robinhood-q2-revenues-order-flow-tumble-34\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"HOOD":"Robinhood"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/robinhood-q2-revenues-order-flow-tumble-34","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1173852688","content_text":"Yesterday Robinhood released its preliminary revenue numbers for Q2 when it published itsForm 606 and 607 disclosurefor April through June. While the data covers payment for orderflow (PFOF), this remains the biggest component of the recently IPOed company's top-line (dogecoin revenues notwithstanding), so it serves as a good proxy for what to expect when the company publishes its first earnings release as a public company.\nThe numbers were quite disappointing, and a stark reminder of just how fickle retail trading can be.\nAfter a blistering Q1 which saw a record surge in retail trading, and which translated into record payment for orderflow to Robinhood to the tune of $331 million, the bulk of which was for option orderflow at $198 million and was paid by Citadel which accounted for roughly 43% ($142 million) of Robinhood's total Q1 revenues, things slowed down substantially in Q2.\nAs the chart below shows, the retail trading frenzy ended with a bang in April when Robinhood's payment for orderflow was just $65.9 million, and then dropped further in May, sliding to just $57.4 million - the lowest since October. The good news: there was a modest rebound in June when as we discussed previously, retail investors shifted their gamma-ramping attention to tech giants such as Amazon and Apple, resulting in PFOF revenue of $93.6 million.\n\nWhat we also found notable is that Robinhood's revenue from orderflow from S&P and non S&P500 stocks was down 25% Y/Y, with the only value that Robinhood providers to internalizers such as Citadel is selling it option traffic which rose 48% from $111.1 million a year ago to $164.8 million in Q2 2021. How soon until some dedicated option market-maker decides to steal Robinhood's market share and aggressively starts dumping option traffic data to the Citadels of the world;alternatively what happens when the \"gamma\" trade is no longer a moneymaking cash cow, and retail traders get fed up with selling weekly calls and puts when their premiums gets wiped out after a major market shakeout?\nQuestion aside, the fade of retail trading mania in Q2 was especially acute on a quarterly basis, as PFOF revenue tumbled 34.4% sequentially and were up just 20.4% from the year ago quarter when retail trading mania was still in its infancy.\n\nAnd yes, for those wondering, Citadel still remains Robinhood's top customer, accounting for $81.6 million, or 27.6% of the company's total Q2 PFOF. That said, clearly Citadel's contribution to Robinhood's top line is declining and in June it accounted for just 35.3% of total PFOF, the lowest on record.\n\nTo be sure, it wasn't just Robinhood: as the following chart from Bloomberg shows all brokers saw a substantial drop in PFOF revenue in Q2, amounting to roughly 27% across the major players, but nobody suffered as much as Robinhood.\n\nWhich prompts several questions: is Citadel - whose historically generous payments for RH orderflow is what enabled the company's multi-billion valuation - gradually shifting away from its top supplier of bulk retail trading data, and if so, how will Robinhood replace the lost revenue? And perhaps more importantly: with retail trading patterns clearly reflecting inflows of stimulus payments, peaking just after bulk \"stimmy\" checks clear, i.e., in June 2020, and in Q1 2021, is a long Robinhood thesis just a bet on continued stimulus checks from the generous Biden administration? And linked to that, what happens to Robinhood's bread and butter - retail option trades - when retail traders no longer expect free money from the government?\nAn amusing aside is whether Robinhood will pocket revenues from selling the client order data to Citadelfrom retail traders who are currently ramping Robinhood's own stockin an attempted gamma squeeze. In other words, has Robinhood created a perpetual motion device where it generates revenue whenit itselfbecomes the target of outsized client trades, as the case clearly is today?\nAlternatively, one can argue that the simplest trade to bet on an end of generous fiscal stimulus is not shorting the market or betting on an economic slowdown, as these also benefit from the Fed's generous monetary stimulus, but rather just shorting Robinhood stock - once it is permitted - and waiting.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HOOD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":339,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":7,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/890000434"}
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