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2021-08-04

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Treasury To Start Reducing Bond Auction Sizes As Soon As November<blockquote>财政部最早将于 11 月开始缩小债券拍卖规模</blockquote>

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In fact, according to some the drop in yields in recent weeks has been not due to the ongoing monster squeeze but due to expectations that there will be less TSY supply than demand.<blockquote>在今天公布季度退款公告之前，债券市场对卖方广泛讨论的（低）可能性感到紧张，即财政部可能会在未来几个月内削减修剪息票拍卖规模，以配合美联储缩减息票拍卖规模。由于税收收入高于预期，财政部的资金需求逐渐低于预期。事实上，一些人认为，最近几周收益率下降并不是由于持续的巨额挤压，而是由于预期 TSY 供应将少于需求。</blockquote> So when the Treasury released itslatest refunding statement(whose highlights hit about 10 mins early after some newswire broke the embargo), battered TSY bears breathed a sigh of relief because the Treasury said that contrary growing expectations, it \"does not anticipate making any changes to nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes over the next quarter.\" Here is the proposed treasury issuance scheduled for Q3:<blockquote>因此，当财政部发布最新的退款声明时（该声明的要点在一些新闻通讯社打破禁运后提前约 10 分钟播出），饱受打击的 TSY 空头松了一口气，因为财政部表示，与日益增长的预期相反，它“预计下一季度名义息票和 FRN 拍卖规模不会有任何变化.”以下是计划于第三季度发行的拟议国债：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38e4d7e4d0f23901ba21254476fb0640\" tg-width=\"674\" tg-height=\"923\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> However, in line with expectations, \"continuing current issuance sizes and patterns may provide more borrowing capacity than is needed to address borrowing needs over the intermediate-to-long term.\" As a result, the \"Treasury will continue to engage with a variety of market participants to better understand the supply and demand dynamics for existing securities,with an expectation of announcing an initial set of auction size reductions as soon as the November refunding announcement\" which is also in line with what most Primary Dealers had expected (among the 24 primary dealers in U.S. government securities, just three expected smaller auctions during the August-to-October quarter, with many more seeing an announcement in November).&nbsp; In other words,shortly after the Fed's taper announcement at or just after Jackson Hole, the Treasury will follow up with an issuance cut of its own.<blockquote>然而，与预期一致，“维持目前的发行规模和模式可能会提供比满足中长期借款需求所需更多的借款能力因此，“库务局将继续与各市场参与者接触，以更好地了解现有证券的供求动态，预计将在 11 月退款公告发布后立即宣布首批拍卖规模削减这也符合大多数一级交易商的预期（在美国政府证券的24家一级交易商中，j预计 8 月至 10 月季度将举行三场规模较小的拍卖，更多拍卖将于 11 月宣布）。换句话说，美联储在杰克逊霍尔宣布缩减规模后不久或紧接着，财政部将进行自己的减产。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4ea04a7e2abe81b943385a9bdeab027\" tg-width=\"661\" tg-height=\"495\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">So if no changes in coupon sizes, will Bill issuance at least shrink? You bet: as the Treasury added, \"seasonal or unexpected variations in borrowing needs over the next quarter is to be met by changes in bill auction sizes and Cash Management Bills (CMBs).\"&nbsp; Additionally, the Treasury willend weekly issuance of 6-week CMBs later this month:<blockquote>因此，如果优惠券规模没有变化，账单发行至少会减少吗？你打赌：正如财政部补充的那样，“下一季度借贷需求的季节性或意外变化将通过票据拍卖规模和现金管理票据 (CMB) 的变化来满足。”此外，财政部将本月晚些时候结束每周发行 6 周 CMB:</blockquote> \"the amount of net new cash still being raised from coupon issuance will allow Treasury to continue gradual reductions in bills as a percent of Treasury debt outstanding, in a manner consistent with recommendations made by the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) at its November 2020 meeting.&nbsp; Accordingly, Treasury plans to further modify its regular cadence of CMBs.&nbsp; Treasury anticipates that weekly issuance of the 6-week CMBs will cease after settlement on August 19, whereas weekly issuance of the 17-week CMBs will continue at least through the end of October. Also of note, now that the US has triggered the debt ceiling extension measures which have an impact on how much cash the Treasury can hold at the current moment ($450BN), the Treasury said that it is unsure how long extraordinary measures put in place due to the debt ceiling will last:<blockquote>“仍在从息票发行中筹集的净新现金将使财政部能够继续逐步减少票据占未偿国债的百分比，其方式与财政部借款咨询委员会 (TBAC) 在 2020 年 11 月会议上提出的建议一致。因此，财政部计划进一步修改其定期发行中期债券的节奏。财政部预计，6周期中期债券的每周发行将在8月19日结算后停止，而17周期中期债券的每周发行将至少持续到10月底同样值得注意的是，现在美国已经触发了债务上限延期措施，这将对财政部目前可以持有的现金（4500亿美元）产生影响，财政部表示，它不确定由于债务上限而采取的非常措施将持续多久：</blockquote> As Secretary Yellen recently outlined in a July 23 letter to Congress, the period of time that extraordinary measures may last is subject to considerable uncertainty due to a variety of factors, including the challenges of forecasting the payments and receipts of the U.S. government months into the future, exacerbated by the heightened uncertainty in payments and receipts related to the economic impact of the pandemic. Given this, Treasury is not able to currently provide a specific estimate of how long extraordinary measures will last. While it was of secondary importance, the Treasury also revealed the details of next week's auctions a/k/a the quarterly refunding offering, which&nbsp; was in line with expectations. Specifically, the Treasury will offer $126 billion of Treasuries to refund $58.6 billion of Treasury notes and bonds maturing on August 15, 2021.&nbsp;This issuance will raise new cash of approximately $67.4 billion. The securities are:<blockquote>正如耶伦部长最近在 7 月 23 日致国会的一封信中概述的那样，由于各种因素，非常措施可能持续的时间存在相当大的不确定性，包括预测美国政府未来几个月的付款和收款的挑战，与疫情的经济影响相关的付款和收款的不确定性加剧了这种情况。有鉴于此，财政部目前无法提供非常措施将持续多久的具体估计。虽然这是次要的，但财政部还透露了下周拍卖的细节，即季度退款发行，这符合预期。具体来说，财政部将提供1260亿美元的国债，以偿还2021年8月15日到期的586亿美元国库券和债券。此次发行将筹集约674亿美元的新现金证券为：</blockquote> <ul> <li>A 3-year note in the amount of $58 billion, as expected</li> <li>A 10-year note in the amount of $41 billion, as expected</li> <li>A 30-year bond in the amount of $27 billion, as expected</li> </ul> Going back to the Treasury's coupon shrinkage plans, theMinutes of the latest Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committeerevealed that the committee reviewed a presentation presentation about potential adjustments to coupon auction sizes in the coming years,,,<blockquote><ul><li>按预期发行580亿美元的3年期票据</li><li>正如预期的那样，10年期票据金额为410亿美元</li><li>正如预期的那样，30年期债券金额为270亿美元</li></ul>回到财政部的息票缩水计划，最新的财政部借款咨询委员会会议纪要显示，该委员会审查了一份关于未来几年息票拍卖规模潜在调整的演示文稿。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e1a37f22f9f748507c3370311dece35\" tg-width=\"1026\" tg-height=\"780\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... based on the presenting member’s assessment that the current auction schedule will likely leave Treasury significantly overfunded.<blockquote>...根据出席会议的成员的评估，目前的拍卖时间表可能会使财政部资金严重过剩。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54a5416fc7b72a56cb803a006a63256f\" tg-width=\"1022\" tg-height=\"782\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">It noted that several significant financing uncertainties were also highlighted by the presenting member that will require a flexible approach within the regular and predictable paradigm.&nbsp; The resulting share of bills outstanding, the impact on the maturity profile, and the relative persistent supply and demand dynamics at each maturity point were then discussed for each issuance size scenario.<blockquote>它指出，发言成员还强调了几个重大的融资不确定性，这将需要在常规和可预测的范式内采取灵活的方法。然后，针对每种发行规模情景讨论了由此产生的未偿票据份额、对到期日概况的影响以及每个到期日点的相对持续供需动态。</blockquote> The presenting member concluded by recommending that Treasury begin to move towards a scenario with issuance cuts across the nominal curve, but with relatively larger reductions in the 7-year and 20-year tenors, offset by smaller reductions to the 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year tenors.<blockquote>发言委员最后建议财政部开始走向一种情景，即在名义曲线上削减发行量，但7年期和20年期的削减幅度相对较大，而5年期、10年期和30年期的削减幅度较小。</blockquote> The Committee then turned to its financing recommendation for the upcoming quarters.The Committee recommended that Treasury begin to reduce nominal coupon auction sizes at the November 2021 quarterly refunding and attempt to target a bill share of total marketable debt outstanding within the Committee’s past recommendation of 15 to 20 percent.&nbsp; However, the Committee emphasized the current level of fiscal uncertainty and the need to remain flexible if borrowing needs were to change materially.<blockquote>委员会随后转向对未来几个季度的融资建议。委员会建议财政部在 2021 年 11 月的季度退款中开始减少名义息票拍卖规模，并尝试将票据份额控制在委员会过去建议的 15% 至 20% 的范围内。然而，委员会强调目前的财政不确定性水平，以及如果借贷需求发生重大变化，就需要保持灵活性。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a7f025722c8e8f65c79b40a66f977bc\" tg-width=\"1026\" tg-height=\"770\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">After a discussion, the Committee further recommended that Treasury proceed in November with modestly larger reductions in the 7-year note and 20-year bond.&nbsp; Finally, the Committee recommended that Treasury continue to increase TIPS auction sizes at a pace consistent with the increase in gross issuance for CY2021 that was announced at the November 2020 quarterly refunding.&nbsp; The Committee also reaffirmed its support for Treasury to issue a floating rate note indexed to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate.<blockquote>经过讨论，委员会进一步建议财政部在11月份继续适度大幅削减7年期票据和20年期债券。最后，委员会建议财政部继续增加TIPS拍卖规模，其速度与2020年11月季度退款时宣布的2021财年总发行量的增加保持一致。委员会还重申支持财政部发行与担保隔夜融资利率挂钩的浮动利率票据。</blockquote> Tangentially, and perhaps linked to the recent discussions of tether, TBAC reviewed a presentation on regulatory reform options for the money market mutual fund (MMF) industry, given the stress experienced by certain types of funds during March 2020.&nbsp; The presenting member noted the vulnerabilities that exist for primmoe MMFs, highlighting common themes in several recent episodes of heightened outflows. During these events, the outflows from prime MMFs have tended to result in similarly sized and simultaneous inflows into government MMFs. The presenting member concluded by arguing that optimal reforms to address the vulnerabilities among prime MMFs should balance allowing these funds to offer attractive yields under normal market conditions while ensuring stability during periods of market stress.<blockquote>顺便说一句，也许与最近的泰达币讨论有关，TBAC审查了一份关于货币市场共同基金（MMF）行业监管改革方案的报告，因为某些类型的基金在2020年3月经历了压力。报告成员指出了主要货币市场基金存在的脆弱性，强调了最近几次外流加剧的共同主题。在这些事件中，主要MMF的资金外流往往会导致类似规模的同时流入政府MMF。发言的成员最后认为，解决主要货币基金组织脆弱性的最佳改革应平衡允许这些基金在正常市场条件下提供有吸引力的收益率，同时确保市场压力时期的稳定性。</blockquote> As Bloomberg notes, if the Treasury does proceed with a reduction in the November-to-January period,it would be the first in more than five years. Issuance had been climbing for years, thanks to surging federal budget deficits in the wake of former President&nbsp;Donald Trump’s tax cuts and, later, the emergency spending caused by the pandemic.<blockquote>正如彭博社指出的那样，如果财政部确实在 11 月至 1 月期间继续削减，这将是五年多来的第一次. 由于前总统唐纳德-特朗普（Donald Trump）减税后联邦预算赤字激增，以及后来大流行病造成的紧急支出，发行量多年来一直在攀升。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Treasury To Start Reducing Bond Auction Sizes As Soon As November<blockquote>财政部最早将于 11 月开始缩小债券拍卖规模</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTreasury To Start Reducing Bond Auction Sizes As Soon As November<blockquote>财政部最早将于 11 月开始缩小债券拍卖规模</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-08-04 21:54\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nHeading into today's quarterly refunding announcement, the bond market was on edge over the (low) possibility widely discussed on sellside desks, that the Treasury could cut trim coupon auction sizes in the next few months to coincide with the Fed's tapering as the Treasury's funding needs have gradually emerged to be less than expected thanks to higher than expected tax revenues. In fact, according to some the drop in yields in recent weeks has been not due to the ongoing monster squeeze but due to expectations that there will be less TSY supply than demand.<blockquote>在今天公布季度退款公告之前，债券市场对卖方广泛讨论的（低）可能性感到紧张，即财政部可能会在未来几个月内削减修剪息票拍卖规模，以配合美联储缩减息票拍卖规模。由于税收收入高于预期，财政部的资金需求逐渐低于预期。事实上，一些人认为，最近几周收益率下降并不是由于持续的巨额挤压，而是由于预期 TSY 供应将少于需求。</blockquote> So when the Treasury released itslatest refunding statement(whose highlights hit about 10 mins early after some newswire broke the embargo), battered TSY bears breathed a sigh of relief because the Treasury said that contrary growing expectations, it \"does not anticipate making any changes to nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes over the next quarter.\" Here is the proposed treasury issuance scheduled for Q3:<blockquote>因此，当财政部发布最新的退款声明时（该声明的要点在一些新闻通讯社打破禁运后提前约 10 分钟播出），饱受打击的 TSY 空头松了一口气，因为财政部表示，与日益增长的预期相反，它“预计下一季度名义息票和 FRN 拍卖规模不会有任何变化.”以下是计划于第三季度发行的拟议国债：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38e4d7e4d0f23901ba21254476fb0640\" tg-width=\"674\" tg-height=\"923\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> However, in line with expectations, \"continuing current issuance sizes and patterns may provide more borrowing capacity than is needed to address borrowing needs over the intermediate-to-long term.\" As a result, the \"Treasury will continue to engage with a variety of market participants to better understand the supply and demand dynamics for existing securities,with an expectation of announcing an initial set of auction size reductions as soon as the November refunding announcement\" which is also in line with what most Primary Dealers had expected (among the 24 primary dealers in U.S. government securities, just three expected smaller auctions during the August-to-October quarter, with many more seeing an announcement in November).&nbsp; In other words,shortly after the Fed's taper announcement at or just after Jackson Hole, the Treasury will follow up with an issuance cut of its own.<blockquote>然而，与预期一致，“维持目前的发行规模和模式可能会提供比满足中长期借款需求所需更多的借款能力因此，“库务局将继续与各市场参与者接触，以更好地了解现有证券的供求动态，预计将在 11 月退款公告发布后立即宣布首批拍卖规模削减这也符合大多数一级交易商的预期（在美国政府证券的24家一级交易商中，j预计 8 月至 10 月季度将举行三场规模较小的拍卖，更多拍卖将于 11 月宣布）。换句话说，美联储在杰克逊霍尔宣布缩减规模后不久或紧接着，财政部将进行自己的减产。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4ea04a7e2abe81b943385a9bdeab027\" tg-width=\"661\" tg-height=\"495\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">So if no changes in coupon sizes, will Bill issuance at least shrink? You bet: as the Treasury added, \"seasonal or unexpected variations in borrowing needs over the next quarter is to be met by changes in bill auction sizes and Cash Management Bills (CMBs).\"&nbsp; Additionally, the Treasury willend weekly issuance of 6-week CMBs later this month:<blockquote>因此，如果优惠券规模没有变化，账单发行至少会减少吗？你打赌：正如财政部补充的那样，“下一季度借贷需求的季节性或意外变化将通过票据拍卖规模和现金管理票据 (CMB) 的变化来满足。”此外，财政部将本月晚些时候结束每周发行 6 周 CMB:</blockquote> \"the amount of net new cash still being raised from coupon issuance will allow Treasury to continue gradual reductions in bills as a percent of Treasury debt outstanding, in a manner consistent with recommendations made by the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) at its November 2020 meeting.&nbsp; Accordingly, Treasury plans to further modify its regular cadence of CMBs.&nbsp; Treasury anticipates that weekly issuance of the 6-week CMBs will cease after settlement on August 19, whereas weekly issuance of the 17-week CMBs will continue at least through the end of October. Also of note, now that the US has triggered the debt ceiling extension measures which have an impact on how much cash the Treasury can hold at the current moment ($450BN), the Treasury said that it is unsure how long extraordinary measures put in place due to the debt ceiling will last:<blockquote>“仍在从息票发行中筹集的净新现金将使财政部能够继续逐步减少票据占未偿国债的百分比，其方式与财政部借款咨询委员会 (TBAC) 在 2020 年 11 月会议上提出的建议一致。因此，财政部计划进一步修改其定期发行中期债券的节奏。财政部预计，6周期中期债券的每周发行将在8月19日结算后停止，而17周期中期债券的每周发行将至少持续到10月底同样值得注意的是，现在美国已经触发了债务上限延期措施，这将对财政部目前可以持有的现金（4500亿美元）产生影响，财政部表示，它不确定由于债务上限而采取的非常措施将持续多久：</blockquote> As Secretary Yellen recently outlined in a July 23 letter to Congress, the period of time that extraordinary measures may last is subject to considerable uncertainty due to a variety of factors, including the challenges of forecasting the payments and receipts of the U.S. government months into the future, exacerbated by the heightened uncertainty in payments and receipts related to the economic impact of the pandemic. Given this, Treasury is not able to currently provide a specific estimate of how long extraordinary measures will last. While it was of secondary importance, the Treasury also revealed the details of next week's auctions a/k/a the quarterly refunding offering, which&nbsp; was in line with expectations. Specifically, the Treasury will offer $126 billion of Treasuries to refund $58.6 billion of Treasury notes and bonds maturing on August 15, 2021.&nbsp;This issuance will raise new cash of approximately $67.4 billion. The securities are:<blockquote>正如耶伦部长最近在 7 月 23 日致国会的一封信中概述的那样，由于各种因素，非常措施可能持续的时间存在相当大的不确定性，包括预测美国政府未来几个月的付款和收款的挑战，与疫情的经济影响相关的付款和收款的不确定性加剧了这种情况。有鉴于此，财政部目前无法提供非常措施将持续多久的具体估计。虽然这是次要的，但财政部还透露了下周拍卖的细节，即季度退款发行，这符合预期。具体来说，财政部将提供1260亿美元的国债，以偿还2021年8月15日到期的586亿美元国库券和债券。此次发行将筹集约674亿美元的新现金证券为：</blockquote> <ul> <li>A 3-year note in the amount of $58 billion, as expected</li> <li>A 10-year note in the amount of $41 billion, as expected</li> <li>A 30-year bond in the amount of $27 billion, as expected</li> </ul> Going back to the Treasury's coupon shrinkage plans, theMinutes of the latest Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committeerevealed that the committee reviewed a presentation presentation about potential adjustments to coupon auction sizes in the coming years,,,<blockquote><ul><li>按预期发行580亿美元的3年期票据</li><li>正如预期的那样，10年期票据金额为410亿美元</li><li>正如预期的那样，30年期债券金额为270亿美元</li></ul>回到财政部的息票缩水计划，最新的财政部借款咨询委员会会议纪要显示，该委员会审查了一份关于未来几年息票拍卖规模潜在调整的演示文稿。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e1a37f22f9f748507c3370311dece35\" tg-width=\"1026\" tg-height=\"780\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... based on the presenting member’s assessment that the current auction schedule will likely leave Treasury significantly overfunded.<blockquote>...根据出席会议的成员的评估，目前的拍卖时间表可能会使财政部资金严重过剩。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54a5416fc7b72a56cb803a006a63256f\" tg-width=\"1022\" tg-height=\"782\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">It noted that several significant financing uncertainties were also highlighted by the presenting member that will require a flexible approach within the regular and predictable paradigm.&nbsp; The resulting share of bills outstanding, the impact on the maturity profile, and the relative persistent supply and demand dynamics at each maturity point were then discussed for each issuance size scenario.<blockquote>它指出，发言成员还强调了几个重大的融资不确定性，这将需要在常规和可预测的范式内采取灵活的方法。然后，针对每种发行规模情景讨论了由此产生的未偿票据份额、对到期日概况的影响以及每个到期日点的相对持续供需动态。</blockquote> The presenting member concluded by recommending that Treasury begin to move towards a scenario with issuance cuts across the nominal curve, but with relatively larger reductions in the 7-year and 20-year tenors, offset by smaller reductions to the 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year tenors.<blockquote>发言委员最后建议财政部开始走向一种情景，即在名义曲线上削减发行量，但7年期和20年期的削减幅度相对较大，而5年期、10年期和30年期的削减幅度较小。</blockquote> The Committee then turned to its financing recommendation for the upcoming quarters.The Committee recommended that Treasury begin to reduce nominal coupon auction sizes at the November 2021 quarterly refunding and attempt to target a bill share of total marketable debt outstanding within the Committee’s past recommendation of 15 to 20 percent.&nbsp; However, the Committee emphasized the current level of fiscal uncertainty and the need to remain flexible if borrowing needs were to change materially.<blockquote>委员会随后转向对未来几个季度的融资建议。委员会建议财政部在 2021 年 11 月的季度退款中开始减少名义息票拍卖规模，并尝试将票据份额控制在委员会过去建议的 15% 至 20% 的范围内。然而，委员会强调目前的财政不确定性水平，以及如果借贷需求发生重大变化，就需要保持灵活性。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a7f025722c8e8f65c79b40a66f977bc\" tg-width=\"1026\" tg-height=\"770\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">After a discussion, the Committee further recommended that Treasury proceed in November with modestly larger reductions in the 7-year note and 20-year bond.&nbsp; Finally, the Committee recommended that Treasury continue to increase TIPS auction sizes at a pace consistent with the increase in gross issuance for CY2021 that was announced at the November 2020 quarterly refunding.&nbsp; The Committee also reaffirmed its support for Treasury to issue a floating rate note indexed to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate.<blockquote>经过讨论，委员会进一步建议财政部在11月份继续适度大幅削减7年期票据和20年期债券。最后，委员会建议财政部继续增加TIPS拍卖规模，其速度与2020年11月季度退款时宣布的2021财年总发行量的增加保持一致。委员会还重申支持财政部发行与担保隔夜融资利率挂钩的浮动利率票据。</blockquote> Tangentially, and perhaps linked to the recent discussions of tether, TBAC reviewed a presentation on regulatory reform options for the money market mutual fund (MMF) industry, given the stress experienced by certain types of funds during March 2020.&nbsp; The presenting member noted the vulnerabilities that exist for primmoe MMFs, highlighting common themes in several recent episodes of heightened outflows. During these events, the outflows from prime MMFs have tended to result in similarly sized and simultaneous inflows into government MMFs. The presenting member concluded by arguing that optimal reforms to address the vulnerabilities among prime MMFs should balance allowing these funds to offer attractive yields under normal market conditions while ensuring stability during periods of market stress.<blockquote>顺便说一句，也许与最近的泰达币讨论有关，TBAC审查了一份关于货币市场共同基金（MMF）行业监管改革方案的报告，因为某些类型的基金在2020年3月经历了压力。报告成员指出了主要货币市场基金存在的脆弱性，强调了最近几次外流加剧的共同主题。在这些事件中，主要MMF的资金外流往往会导致类似规模的同时流入政府MMF。发言的成员最后认为，解决主要货币基金组织脆弱性的最佳改革应平衡允许这些基金在正常市场条件下提供有吸引力的收益率，同时确保市场压力时期的稳定性。</blockquote> As Bloomberg notes, if the Treasury does proceed with a reduction in the November-to-January period,it would be the first in more than five years. Issuance had been climbing for years, thanks to surging federal budget deficits in the wake of former President&nbsp;Donald Trump’s tax cuts and, later, the emergency spending caused by the pandemic.<blockquote>正如彭博社指出的那样，如果财政部确实在 11 月至 1 月期间继续削减，这将是五年多来的第一次. 由于前总统唐纳德-特朗普（Donald Trump）减税后联邦预算赤字激增，以及后来大流行病造成的紧急支出，发行量多年来一直在攀升。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/treasury-start-reducing-bond-auction-sizes-soon-november\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/treasury-start-reducing-bond-auction-sizes-soon-november","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106185106","content_text":"Heading into today's quarterly refunding announcement, the bond market was on edge over the (low) possibility widely discussed on sellside desks, that the Treasury could cut trim coupon auction sizes in the next few months to coincide with the Fed's tapering as the Treasury's funding needs have gradually emerged to be less than expected thanks to higher than expected tax revenues. In fact, according to some the drop in yields in recent weeks has been not due to the ongoing monster squeeze but due to expectations that there will be less TSY supply than demand.\nSo when the Treasury released itslatest refunding statement(whose highlights hit about 10 mins early after some newswire broke the embargo), battered TSY bears breathed a sigh of relief because the Treasury said that contrary growing expectations, it \"does not anticipate making any changes to nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes over the next quarter.\" Here is the proposed treasury issuance scheduled for Q3:\n\nHowever, in line with expectations, \"continuing current issuance sizes and patterns may provide more borrowing capacity than is needed to address borrowing needs over the intermediate-to-long term.\" As a result, the \"Treasury will continue to engage with a variety of market participants to better understand the supply and demand dynamics for existing securities,with an expectation of announcing an initial set of auction size reductions as soon as the November refunding announcement\" which is also in line with what most Primary Dealers had expected (among the 24 primary dealers in U.S. government securities, just three expected smaller auctions during the August-to-October quarter, with many more seeing an announcement in November).  In other words,shortly after the Fed's taper announcement at or just after Jackson Hole, the Treasury will follow up with an issuance cut of its own.\nSo if no changes in coupon sizes, will Bill issuance at least shrink? You bet: as the Treasury added, \"seasonal or unexpected variations in borrowing needs over the next quarter is to be met by changes in bill auction sizes and Cash Management Bills (CMBs).\"  Additionally, the Treasury willend weekly issuance of 6-week CMBs later this month:\n\n \"the amount of net new cash still being raised from coupon issuance will allow Treasury to continue gradual reductions in bills as a percent of Treasury debt outstanding, in a manner consistent with recommendations made by the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) at its November 2020 meeting.  Accordingly,\n Treasury plans to further modify its regular cadence of CMBs.  Treasury anticipates that weekly issuance of the 6-week CMBs will cease after settlement on August 19, whereas weekly issuance of the 17-week CMBs will continue at least through the end of October.\n\nAlso of note, now that the US has triggered the debt ceiling extension measures which have an impact on how much cash the Treasury can hold at the current moment ($450BN), the Treasury said that it is unsure how long extraordinary measures put in place due to the debt ceiling will last:\n\n As Secretary Yellen recently outlined in a July 23 letter to Congress, the period of time that extraordinary measures may last is subject to considerable uncertainty due to a variety of factors, including the challenges of forecasting the payments and receipts of the U.S. government months into the future, exacerbated by the heightened uncertainty in payments and receipts related to the economic impact of the pandemic.\n Given this, Treasury is not able to currently provide a specific estimate of how long extraordinary measures will last.\n\nWhile it was of secondary importance, the Treasury also revealed the details of next week's auctions a/k/a the quarterly refunding offering, which  was in line with expectations. Specifically, the Treasury will offer $126 billion of Treasuries to refund $58.6 billion of Treasury notes and bonds maturing on August 15, 2021. This issuance will raise new cash of approximately $67.4 billion. The securities are:\n\nA 3-year note in the amount of $58 billion, as expected\nA 10-year note in the amount of $41 billion, as expected\nA 30-year bond in the amount of $27 billion, as expected\n\nGoing back to the Treasury's coupon shrinkage plans, theMinutes of the latest Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committeerevealed that the committee reviewed a presentation presentation about potential adjustments to coupon auction sizes in the coming years,,,\n\n... based on the presenting member’s assessment that the current auction schedule will likely leave Treasury significantly overfunded.\nIt noted that several significant financing uncertainties were also highlighted by the presenting member that will require a flexible approach within the regular and predictable paradigm.  The resulting share of bills outstanding, the impact on the maturity profile, and the relative persistent supply and demand dynamics at each maturity point were then discussed for each issuance size scenario.\nThe presenting member concluded by recommending that Treasury begin to move towards a scenario with issuance cuts across the nominal curve, but with relatively larger reductions in the 7-year and 20-year tenors, offset by smaller reductions to the 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year tenors.\nThe Committee then turned to its financing recommendation for the upcoming quarters.The Committee recommended that Treasury begin to reduce nominal coupon auction sizes at the November 2021 quarterly refunding and attempt to target a bill share of total marketable debt outstanding within the Committee’s past recommendation of 15 to 20 percent.  However, the Committee emphasized the current level of fiscal uncertainty and the need to remain flexible if borrowing needs were to change materially.\nAfter a discussion, the Committee further recommended that Treasury proceed in November with modestly larger reductions in the 7-year note and 20-year bond.  Finally, the Committee recommended that Treasury continue to increase TIPS auction sizes at a pace consistent with the increase in gross issuance for CY2021 that was announced at the November 2020 quarterly refunding.  The Committee also reaffirmed its support for Treasury to issue a floating rate note indexed to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate.\nTangentially, and perhaps linked to the recent discussions of tether, TBAC reviewed a presentation on regulatory reform options for the money market mutual fund (MMF) industry, given the stress experienced by certain types of funds during March 2020.  The presenting member noted the vulnerabilities that exist for primmoe MMFs, highlighting common themes in several recent episodes of heightened outflows. During these events, the outflows from prime MMFs have tended to result in similarly sized and simultaneous inflows into government MMFs. The presenting member concluded by arguing that optimal reforms to address the vulnerabilities among prime MMFs should balance allowing these funds to offer attractive yields under normal market conditions while ensuring stability during periods of market stress.\nAs Bloomberg notes, if the Treasury does proceed with a reduction in the November-to-January period,it would be the first in more than five years. Issuance had been climbing for years, thanks to surging federal budget deficits in the wake of former President Donald Trump’s tax cuts and, later, the emergency spending caused by the pandemic.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3463,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/890126801"}