victorchow
2021-08-05
Haha..
Grab Is Growing Fast But The Valuation Is Too High<blockquote>Grab增长迅速但估值过高</blockquote>
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Investors wan","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Grab is set to merge with SPAC Altimeter Growth Corp. by the end of the year. Investors wanting to invest in the company can do so by buying the SPAC shares now.</li> <li>The company is valued at ~$45 billion, which we believe is way too generous.</li> <li>It is still worth watching given the fact that it is the biggest super app in South East Asia and it offers a multitude of services.</li> <li>Economic growth in South East Asia is expected to be robust, with annual growth estimated at 4.9% per year.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed14131a10fe9b0fe4ffdc2d166eedfc\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>bankkgraphy/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Grab将于今年年底与SPAC Altimeter Growth Corp.合并。想要投资该公司的投资者现在可以通过购买SPAC股票来实现。</li><li>该公司的估值约为450亿美元，我们认为这太慷慨了。</li><li>鉴于它是东南亚最大的超级应用程序，并且提供多种服务，它仍然值得一看。</li><li>东南亚的经济增长预计将强劲，预计年增长率为4.9%。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>bankkgraphy/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Grab is the number one super app in Southeast Asia, investors not familiar with it can think of it as merging Uber with a banking app. Its services include mobility, package deliveries, food deliveries, and financial services. The company is still private but it is set to combine with SPAC Altimeter Growth Corp (AGC) by the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>Grab是东南亚排名第一的超级应用程序，不熟悉它的投资者可以认为它是Uber与银行应用程序的合并。其服务包括移动、包裹递送、食品递送和金融服务。该公司仍然是私营公司，但计划在今年年底前与SPAC Altimeter Growth Corp(AGC)合并。</blockquote></p><p> So what is a super app? Grab imagines customers can use the app for many of their daily needs, from ordering a ride to ordering food, or even booking a hotel.</p><p><blockquote>那么什么是超级app呢？Grab设想客户可以使用该应用程序满足许多日常需求，从叫车到订餐，甚至预订酒店。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/053fd9283dc37b6e74500543dc4cda48\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"298\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Grab Investor Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Grab投资者介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Such ubiquity and number of service offerings has resulted in enormous growth for the app, reaching a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) on its platform of $12.5 billion in 2020. Its net adjusted revenue reaching $1.6 billion, thanks to 1.9 billion transactions, making the app the number one in the region for deliveries, mobility, and financial services.</p><p><blockquote>这种无处不在和服务产品的数量导致了该应用程序的巨大增长，2020年其平台上的商品总值(GMV)达到125亿美元。得益于19亿笔交易，其调整后净收入达到16亿美元，使该应用成为该地区交付、移动和金融服务领域的第一名。</blockquote></p><p> This gives the platform significant scale, with year 2020 GMV of $5.5 billion for food deliveries, $3.2 billion for mobility, and $8.9 billion for financial services.</p><p><blockquote>这使得该平台拥有了巨大的规模，2020年食品配送GMV为55亿美元，移动出行GMV为32亿美元，金融服务GMV为89亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Such ubiquity and number of service offerings has resulted in enormous growth for the app, reaching a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) on its platform of $12.5 billion in 2020. Its net adjusted revenue reaching $1.6 billion, thanks to 1.9 billion transactions, making the app the number one in the region for deliveries, mobility, and financial services.</p><p><blockquote>这种无处不在和服务产品的数量导致了该应用程序的巨大增长，2020年其平台上的商品总值(GMV)达到125亿美元。得益于19亿笔交易，其调整后净收入达到16亿美元，使该应用成为该地区交付、移动和金融服务领域的第一名。</blockquote></p><p> This gives the platform significant scale, with year 2020 GMV of $5.5 billion for food deliveries, $3.2 billion for mobility, and $8.9 billion for financial services.</p><p><blockquote>这使得该平台拥有了巨大的规模，2020年食品配送GMV为55亿美元，移动出行GMV为32亿美元，金融服务GMV为89亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c22a14f058c5206c6f97c9ee6555c40\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Grab Investor Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Grab投资者介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Cohort Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>队列分析</b></blockquote></p><p> Looking at the different cohorts of users it is clear that the longer they have the app installed the more they transact on it. After three years users approximately double the transaction amount, and by year five they more than triple their transactions. This speaks to significant stickiness for the app, and it reflects high user satisfaction with it.</p><p><blockquote>看看不同的用户群体，很明显，他们安装应用程序的时间越长，他们在上面的交易就越多。三年后，用户的交易量大约翻了一番，到第五年，他们的交易量增加了两倍多。这说明了该应用程序的巨大粘性，也反映了用户对它的高度满意度。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b1048371138429abea215d9d0f75b78\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Grab Investor Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Grab投资者介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>International Expansion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>国际扩张</b></blockquote></p><p> One of the more exciting things about Grab is how many countries it operates in, and the number of services it offers in each. The slide below shows the services offered in each of the markets served by Grab.</p><p><blockquote>Grab更令人兴奋的事情之一是它在多少个国家开展业务，以及它在每个国家提供的服务数量。下面的幻灯片显示了Grab在每个市场提供的服务。</blockquote></p><p> While users come to the app initially for food deliveries and rides, we believe it will be the financial services that really bring profitable growth for the company. Things like loans, micro-credits, and insurance products should bring profitable growth for the company.</p><p><blockquote>虽然用户最初使用该应用程序是为了送餐和乘车，但我们相信真正为公司带来盈利增长的将是金融服务。像贷款、小额信贷和保险产品这样的东西应该会给公司带来盈利增长。</blockquote></p><p> According to the OECD,GDP for the region is expected to grow by 4.9% per year during the period 2020-2024, slightly down from the average rate of 5% in 2013-2017.</p><p><blockquote>根据经合组织的数据，该地区的国内生产总值预计在2020-2024年期间每年增长4.9%，略低于2013-2017年5%的平均增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b094b954a6ff2a9be4fc65c073208521\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Grab Investor Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Grab投资者介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务</b></blockquote></p><p> Turning our attention to the financials we see that the company isn't projecting to become EBITDA profitable until 2023, when it is projected to reach $0.5 billion. This gives the company an EV/EBITDA 2023 multiple of ~60x, which we find excessive given the uncertainty of the financial projections and the level of risk. We understand some investors are confident the company will achieve operating leverage and that it will continue growing for many years, but even then we believe the valuation to be too demanding given the level of uncertainty for future results.</p><p><blockquote>将注意力转向财务状况，我们发现该公司预计要到2023年才能实现EBITDA盈利，届时预计将达到5亿美元。这使得该公司2023年的EV/EBITDA倍数约为60倍，考虑到财务预测和风险水平的不确定性，我们认为这一倍数过高。我们知道一些投资者对该公司将实现运营杠杆并将继续增长多年充满信心，但即便如此，考虑到未来业绩的不确定性，我们认为估值过于苛刻。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05b52eab933ed612ab245e32a04c21a8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Grab Investor Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Grab投资者介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> The main risk we see with an investment in Grab is over paying for the shares. While the company's app is ubiquitous in South East Asia the current valuation already prices significant growth and profitability improvements. In other words, it is priced for perfection.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为投资Grab的主要风险是支付过高的股票费用。虽然该公司的应用程序在东南亚无处不在，但目前的估值已经体现了显着的增长和盈利能力的提高。换句话说，它的定价是为了完美。</blockquote></p><p> There is also the matter of competition, where several well funded companies are going to fight for market share and erode profitability. These include Uber in some markets, but mainly Indonesia's GoTo,the company created through the merger of ride-sharing firm Gojek and e-commerce company Tokopedia.</p><p><blockquote>还有竞争问题，几家资金雄厚的公司将争夺市场份额并削弱盈利能力。其中包括一些市场的优步，但主要是印度尼西亚的GoTo，该公司由拼车公司Gojek和电子商务公司Tokopedia合并而成。</blockquote></p><p> We find the company exciting and will continue to follow its progress, but at this time we are not buyers of the shares.</p><p><blockquote>我们发现该公司令人兴奋，并将继续关注其进展，但目前我们不是股票的买家。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Grab is one of the most exciting companies right now that offers broad exposure to the economic growth in South East Asia. The company keeps growing and adding services to its app, while gaining users and getting closer to profitability.</p><p><blockquote>Grab是目前最令人兴奋的公司之一，为东南亚的经济增长提供了广泛的机会。该公司不断发展并为其应用程序添加服务，同时赢得用户并接近盈利。</blockquote></p><p> The one problem we have with an investment in the company is that at current prices much of the growth is already priced in. Unless the company manages to exceed expectations we do not see how investors at this price could get a good return on investment.</p><p><blockquote>我们投资该公司的一个问题是，按照目前的价格，大部分增长已经被消化了。除非该公司设法超出预期，否则我们不认为投资者在这个价格下如何获得良好的投资回报。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Grab Is Growing Fast But The Valuation Is Too High<blockquote>Grab增长迅速但估值过高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGrab Is Growing Fast But The Valuation Is Too High<blockquote>Grab增长迅速但估值过高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-05 11:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Grab is set to merge with SPAC Altimeter Growth Corp. by the end of the year. Investors wanting to invest in the company can do so by buying the SPAC shares now.</li> <li>The company is valued at ~$45 billion, which we believe is way too generous.</li> <li>It is still worth watching given the fact that it is the biggest super app in South East Asia and it offers a multitude of services.</li> <li>Economic growth in South East Asia is expected to be robust, with annual growth estimated at 4.9% per year.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed14131a10fe9b0fe4ffdc2d166eedfc\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>bankkgraphy/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Grab将于今年年底与SPAC Altimeter Growth Corp.合并。想要投资该公司的投资者现在可以通过购买SPAC股票来实现。</li><li>该公司的估值约为450亿美元，我们认为这太慷慨了。</li><li>鉴于它是东南亚最大的超级应用程序，并且提供多种服务，它仍然值得一看。</li><li>东南亚的经济增长预计将强劲，预计年增长率为4.9%。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>bankkgraphy/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Grab is the number one super app in Southeast Asia, investors not familiar with it can think of it as merging Uber with a banking app. Its services include mobility, package deliveries, food deliveries, and financial services. The company is still private but it is set to combine with SPAC Altimeter Growth Corp (AGC) by the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>Grab是东南亚排名第一的超级应用程序，不熟悉它的投资者可以认为它是Uber与银行应用程序的合并。其服务包括移动、包裹递送、食品递送和金融服务。该公司仍然是私营公司，但计划在今年年底前与SPAC Altimeter Growth Corp(AGC)合并。</blockquote></p><p> So what is a super app? Grab imagines customers can use the app for many of their daily needs, from ordering a ride to ordering food, or even booking a hotel.</p><p><blockquote>那么什么是超级app呢？Grab设想客户可以使用该应用程序满足许多日常需求，从叫车到订餐，甚至预订酒店。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/053fd9283dc37b6e74500543dc4cda48\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"298\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Grab Investor Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Grab投资者介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Such ubiquity and number of service offerings has resulted in enormous growth for the app, reaching a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) on its platform of $12.5 billion in 2020. Its net adjusted revenue reaching $1.6 billion, thanks to 1.9 billion transactions, making the app the number one in the region for deliveries, mobility, and financial services.</p><p><blockquote>这种无处不在和服务产品的数量导致了该应用程序的巨大增长，2020年其平台上的商品总值(GMV)达到125亿美元。得益于19亿笔交易，其调整后净收入达到16亿美元，使该应用成为该地区交付、移动和金融服务领域的第一名。</blockquote></p><p> This gives the platform significant scale, with year 2020 GMV of $5.5 billion for food deliveries, $3.2 billion for mobility, and $8.9 billion for financial services.</p><p><blockquote>这使得该平台拥有了巨大的规模，2020年食品配送GMV为55亿美元，移动出行GMV为32亿美元，金融服务GMV为89亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Such ubiquity and number of service offerings has resulted in enormous growth for the app, reaching a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) on its platform of $12.5 billion in 2020. Its net adjusted revenue reaching $1.6 billion, thanks to 1.9 billion transactions, making the app the number one in the region for deliveries, mobility, and financial services.</p><p><blockquote>这种无处不在和服务产品的数量导致了该应用程序的巨大增长，2020年其平台上的商品总值(GMV)达到125亿美元。得益于19亿笔交易，其调整后净收入达到16亿美元，使该应用成为该地区交付、移动和金融服务领域的第一名。</blockquote></p><p> This gives the platform significant scale, with year 2020 GMV of $5.5 billion for food deliveries, $3.2 billion for mobility, and $8.9 billion for financial services.</p><p><blockquote>这使得该平台拥有了巨大的规模，2020年食品配送GMV为55亿美元，移动出行GMV为32亿美元，金融服务GMV为89亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c22a14f058c5206c6f97c9ee6555c40\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Grab Investor Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Grab投资者介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Cohort Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>队列分析</b></blockquote></p><p> Looking at the different cohorts of users it is clear that the longer they have the app installed the more they transact on it. After three years users approximately double the transaction amount, and by year five they more than triple their transactions. This speaks to significant stickiness for the app, and it reflects high user satisfaction with it.</p><p><blockquote>看看不同的用户群体，很明显，他们安装应用程序的时间越长，他们在上面的交易就越多。三年后，用户的交易量大约翻了一番，到第五年，他们的交易量增加了两倍多。这说明了该应用程序的巨大粘性，也反映了用户对它的高度满意度。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b1048371138429abea215d9d0f75b78\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Grab Investor Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Grab投资者介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>International Expansion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>国际扩张</b></blockquote></p><p> One of the more exciting things about Grab is how many countries it operates in, and the number of services it offers in each. The slide below shows the services offered in each of the markets served by Grab.</p><p><blockquote>Grab更令人兴奋的事情之一是它在多少个国家开展业务，以及它在每个国家提供的服务数量。下面的幻灯片显示了Grab在每个市场提供的服务。</blockquote></p><p> While users come to the app initially for food deliveries and rides, we believe it will be the financial services that really bring profitable growth for the company. Things like loans, micro-credits, and insurance products should bring profitable growth for the company.</p><p><blockquote>虽然用户最初使用该应用程序是为了送餐和乘车，但我们相信真正为公司带来盈利增长的将是金融服务。像贷款、小额信贷和保险产品这样的东西应该会给公司带来盈利增长。</blockquote></p><p> According to the OECD,GDP for the region is expected to grow by 4.9% per year during the period 2020-2024, slightly down from the average rate of 5% in 2013-2017.</p><p><blockquote>根据经合组织的数据，该地区的国内生产总值预计在2020-2024年期间每年增长4.9%，略低于2013-2017年5%的平均增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b094b954a6ff2a9be4fc65c073208521\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Grab Investor Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Grab投资者介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务</b></blockquote></p><p> Turning our attention to the financials we see that the company isn't projecting to become EBITDA profitable until 2023, when it is projected to reach $0.5 billion. This gives the company an EV/EBITDA 2023 multiple of ~60x, which we find excessive given the uncertainty of the financial projections and the level of risk. We understand some investors are confident the company will achieve operating leverage and that it will continue growing for many years, but even then we believe the valuation to be too demanding given the level of uncertainty for future results.</p><p><blockquote>将注意力转向财务状况，我们发现该公司预计要到2023年才能实现EBITDA盈利，届时预计将达到5亿美元。这使得该公司2023年的EV/EBITDA倍数约为60倍，考虑到财务预测和风险水平的不确定性，我们认为这一倍数过高。我们知道一些投资者对该公司将实现运营杠杆并将继续增长多年充满信心，但即便如此，考虑到未来业绩的不确定性，我们认为估值过于苛刻。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05b52eab933ed612ab245e32a04c21a8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Grab Investor Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Grab投资者介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> The main risk we see with an investment in Grab is over paying for the shares. While the company's app is ubiquitous in South East Asia the current valuation already prices significant growth and profitability improvements. In other words, it is priced for perfection.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为投资Grab的主要风险是支付过高的股票费用。虽然该公司的应用程序在东南亚无处不在，但目前的估值已经体现了显着的增长和盈利能力的提高。换句话说，它的定价是为了完美。</blockquote></p><p> There is also the matter of competition, where several well funded companies are going to fight for market share and erode profitability. These include Uber in some markets, but mainly Indonesia's GoTo,the company created through the merger of ride-sharing firm Gojek and e-commerce company Tokopedia.</p><p><blockquote>还有竞争问题，几家资金雄厚的公司将争夺市场份额并削弱盈利能力。其中包括一些市场的优步，但主要是印度尼西亚的GoTo，该公司由拼车公司Gojek和电子商务公司Tokopedia合并而成。</blockquote></p><p> We find the company exciting and will continue to follow its progress, but at this time we are not buyers of the shares.</p><p><blockquote>我们发现该公司令人兴奋，并将继续关注其进展，但目前我们不是股票的买家。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Grab is one of the most exciting companies right now that offers broad exposure to the economic growth in South East Asia. The company keeps growing and adding services to its app, while gaining users and getting closer to profitability.</p><p><blockquote>Grab是目前最令人兴奋的公司之一，为东南亚的经济增长提供了广泛的机会。该公司不断发展并为其应用程序添加服务，同时赢得用户并接近盈利。</blockquote></p><p> The one problem we have with an investment in the company is that at current prices much of the growth is already priced in. Unless the company manages to exceed expectations we do not see how investors at this price could get a good return on investment.</p><p><blockquote>我们投资该公司的一个问题是，按照目前的价格，大部分增长已经被消化了。除非该公司设法超出预期，否则我们不认为投资者在这个价格下如何获得良好的投资回报。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4445020-grab-is-growing-fast-but-the-valuation-is-too-high\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4445020-grab-is-growing-fast-but-the-valuation-is-too-high","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132789984","content_text":"Summary\n\nGrab is set to merge with SPAC Altimeter Growth Corp. by the end of the year. Investors wanting to invest in the company can do so by buying the SPAC shares now.\nThe company is valued at ~$45 billion, which we believe is way too generous.\nIt is still worth watching given the fact that it is the biggest super app in South East Asia and it offers a multitude of services.\nEconomic growth in South East Asia is expected to be robust, with annual growth estimated at 4.9% per year.\n\nbankkgraphy/iStock via Getty Images\nGrab is the number one super app in Southeast Asia, investors not familiar with it can think of it as merging Uber with a banking app. Its services include mobility, package deliveries, food deliveries, and financial services. The company is still private but it is set to combine with SPAC Altimeter Growth Corp (AGC) by the end of the year.\nSo what is a super app? Grab imagines customers can use the app for many of their daily needs, from ordering a ride to ordering food, or even booking a hotel.\nSource: Grab Investor Presentation\nSuch ubiquity and number of service offerings has resulted in enormous growth for the app, reaching a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) on its platform of $12.5 billion in 2020. Its net adjusted revenue reaching $1.6 billion, thanks to 1.9 billion transactions, making the app the number one in the region for deliveries, mobility, and financial services.\nThis gives the platform significant scale, with year 2020 GMV of $5.5 billion for food deliveries, $3.2 billion for mobility, and $8.9 billion for financial services.\nSuch ubiquity and number of service offerings has resulted in enormous growth for the app, reaching a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) on its platform of $12.5 billion in 2020. Its net adjusted revenue reaching $1.6 billion, thanks to 1.9 billion transactions, making the app the number one in the region for deliveries, mobility, and financial services.\nThis gives the platform significant scale, with year 2020 GMV of $5.5 billion for food deliveries, $3.2 billion for mobility, and $8.9 billion for financial services.\nSource: Grab Investor Presentation\nCohort Analysis\nLooking at the different cohorts of users it is clear that the longer they have the app installed the more they transact on it. After three years users approximately double the transaction amount, and by year five they more than triple their transactions. This speaks to significant stickiness for the app, and it reflects high user satisfaction with it.\nSource: Grab Investor Presentation\nInternational Expansion\nOne of the more exciting things about Grab is how many countries it operates in, and the number of services it offers in each. The slide below shows the services offered in each of the markets served by Grab.\nWhile users come to the app initially for food deliveries and rides, we believe it will be the financial services that really bring profitable growth for the company. Things like loans, micro-credits, and insurance products should bring profitable growth for the company.\nAccording to the OECD,GDP for the region is expected to grow by 4.9% per year during the period 2020-2024, slightly down from the average rate of 5% in 2013-2017.\nSource: Grab Investor Presentation\nFinancials\nTurning our attention to the financials we see that the company isn't projecting to become EBITDA profitable until 2023, when it is projected to reach $0.5 billion. This gives the company an EV/EBITDA 2023 multiple of ~60x, which we find excessive given the uncertainty of the financial projections and the level of risk. We understand some investors are confident the company will achieve operating leverage and that it will continue growing for many years, but even then we believe the valuation to be too demanding given the level of uncertainty for future results.\nSource: Grab Investor Presentation\nRisks\nThe main risk we see with an investment in Grab is over paying for the shares. While the company's app is ubiquitous in South East Asia the current valuation already prices significant growth and profitability improvements. In other words, it is priced for perfection.\nThere is also the matter of competition, where several well funded companies are going to fight for market share and erode profitability. These include Uber in some markets, but mainly Indonesia's GoTo,the company created through the merger of ride-sharing firm Gojek and e-commerce company Tokopedia.\nWe find the company exciting and will continue to follow its progress, but at this time we are not buyers of the shares.\nConclusion\nGrab is one of the most exciting companies right now that offers broad exposure to the economic growth in South East Asia. The company keeps growing and adding services to its app, while gaining users and getting closer to profitability.\nThe one problem we have with an investment in the company is that at current prices much of the growth is already priced in. Unless the company manages to exceed expectations we do not see how investors at this price could get a good return on investment.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AGC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2515,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/890767863"}
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