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2021-08-06

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Howard Marks: "We Are In An Everything Bubble"<blockquote>霍华德·马克斯：“我们正处于一切泡沫之中”</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":893972846,"tweetId":"893972846","gmtCreate":1628234490085,"gmtModify":1633752363647,"author":{"id":3578387522492131,"idStr":"3578387522492131","authorId":3578387522492131,"authorIdStr":"3578387522492131","name":"Ping2joseph","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":1,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Oops~&nbsp;</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Oops~&nbsp;</body></html>","text":"Oops~","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/893972846","repostId":1111284888,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111284888","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628234254,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1111284888?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-06 15:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Howard Marks: \"We Are In An Everything Bubble\"<blockquote>霍华德·马克斯：“我们正处于一切泡沫之中”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111284888","media":"zerohedge","summary":"The otherwise subdued and veryunhyperbolic Howard Marks caused quite a stir across trading desks (an","content":"The otherwise subdued and veryunhyperbolic Howard Marks caused quite a stir across trading desks (and perhaps the Marriner Eccles building) this afternoon, when speaking to Bloomberg's Erik Shatzker, the Oaktree co-founder said what has been obvious to most - even if it carries high career risk in saying it in public - that “we’re in an everything bubble\" adding that \"I don’t say today, but let’s not miss the opportunity to let the rates float back up.\"<blockquote>否则温顺而非常一霍华德-马克斯（Howard Marks）夸张的言论在交易柜台（或许还有马里纳-埃克尔斯大厦）引起了不小的轰动。这位橡树联合创始人在接受彭博社记者埃里克-沙茨克（Erik Shatzker）采访时表示，对大多数人来说都是显而易见的--即使在公开场合说这样的话会带来很高的职业风险--那就是 “我们处在一个一切泡沫中“我今天不说，但我们不要错过让利率回升的机会。”</blockquote> \"The stock market is high and the S&amp;P is at 4,400. Last March 2,200. Doubled. Prices are high. Real estate has come back. Certain sectors are very strong like infrastructure, real estate, distribution centers and so forth. We are in a low return world. The lowest returns we've ever seen prospectively.\"<blockquote>“股市高企，标准普尔指数为 4,400 点。去年 3 月为 2,200 点。翻了一番。价格高企。房地产又回来了。某些行业非常强劲，例如基础设施、房地产、配送中心等等。我们正处于一个低回报的世界。这是我们有史以来最低的回报。”</blockquote> Looking at his favorite Life Cycle of a market chart, Marks says that whereas normally the stock market and the economic cycles coincide, where the high in the stock market is close to the high in the economy and vice versa, today we have high stock prices and we are early in the economic cycle. \"That's unusual. You could say well this is bad because the recovery is nascent and stock prices are already high.\"<blockquote>看着他最喜欢的市场图表生命周期，马克斯说，虽然通常股票市场和经济周期是一致的，股票市场的高点接近经济的高点，反之亦然，但今天我们的股票价格很高，我们正处于经济周期的早期。“这很不寻常。你可以说这很糟糕，因为经济复苏刚刚开始，股价已经很高了。”</blockquote> So what should happen? According to Marks, the Fed should \"leave the markets alone\", and \"remove the punch bowl somewhat\" so that interest rates can be what the economy and participants want them to be, not what the Fed wants them to be. Reminding viewers that the Fed missed an opportunity to raise rates in 2018 - when the market drop dragged the Fed right back in - Marks says \"let's not miss the opportunity to let rates go back up\"&nbsp; and the Fed should not hold back out of fear of another “taper tantrum.”<blockquote>那么应该发生什么呢？马克斯认为，美联储应该“不管市场”，并“在一定程度上移除潘趣酒”，以便利率可以成为经济和参与者希望的样子，而不是美联储希望的样子。马克斯提醒观众，美联储错过了 2018 年加息的机会--当时市场下跌将美联储拖了回来--他说 “我们不要错过让利率回升的机会”，美联储不应该因为害怕再次出现 “缩减利率恐慌”而犹豫不决。</blockquote> \"It's like with your kids. As a parent we can't be afraid of our kids tantrums. The Fed can't be afraid of investors' tantrums. The Fed has to do the right thing for the economy. It's job is not to make money for investors.And when the economy is strong you have to stop emergency measures and let rates go back up.\"<blockquote>“这就像对待你的孩子一样。作为父母，我们不能害怕孩子发脾气。美联储不能害怕投资者发脾气。美联储必须为经济做正确的事情。它的工作不是为投资者赚钱。当经济强劲时，你必须停止紧急措施并让利率回升。”</blockquote> But far from concern about the soaring prices (courtesy of the Fed's exploding balance sheet) that have made life for every middle-class American unbearable, his concern was for his fellow finance professions; to wit, pension funds and many other institutional investors rely on getting 7% returns every year, but that's impossible when the federal funds rate is zero.<blockquote>但他并不担心飙升的物价（这要归功于美联储爆炸式的资产负债表），这让每个美国中产阶级的生活都变得难以忍受，而是担心他的金融行业同行；也就是说，养老基金和许多其他机构投资者依赖每年获得7%的回报，但当联邦基金利率为零时，这是不可能的。</blockquote> Of course, running the most overlevered economy in history will be impossible when rates are 7% but by the time it comes crashing down, we are confident that Howard will be sitting on a beach far away, earning 7%.<blockquote>当然，当利率为7%时，运行历史上最过度的经济体是不可能的，但当利率崩溃时，我们相信霍华德将坐在遥远的海滩上，赚取7%的收入。</blockquote> Today’s credit markets offer “the lowest return we’ve ever seen, prospectively,” Marks said. It is still possible to make more than investing in U.S. Treasuries, but that is getting harder. “It’s never been this unrewarding.\"<blockquote>马克斯说，如今的信贷市场提供了 “我们所见过的最低回报”。除了投资美国国债之外，仍然有可能赚更多的钱，但这变得越来越困难。“从来没有这么没有回报”。</blockquote> Actually, a few million Robinhooders will beg to differ: with no risk-free returns left in the market, it means that anyone hoping to generate any material alpha is forced into chasing meme stonks which is great as long as they go up, but catastrophic once they plunge as Robinhood did today following yesterday's gamma squeeze. But yes, there is no disputing that the Fed has broken the market. Where our view differs with Howard's, is that we are absolutely certain that it is now completely impossible to undo 12 years of Fed central planning and micromanagement of markets. Back in 2009 it may still have been feasible to extricate asset prices from monetary policy, but now it is too late.<blockquote>事实上，几百万 Robinhooders 会不敢苟同：由于市场上没有无风险回报，这意味着任何希望产生任何物质 alpha 的人都被迫追逐 meme stonks，只要它们上涨，这就很棒，但一旦它们暴跌，就像 Robinhood 在昨天的伽马挤压之后今天所做的那样，那就是灾难性的。但没错，美联储打破了市场，这一点毋庸置疑。我们的观点与霍华德的不同之处在于，我们绝对肯定，现在完全不可能撤销美联储12年来对市场的中央规划和微观管理。早在2009年，将资产价格从货币政策中解脱出来或许还是可行的，但现在为时已晚。</blockquote> Where we agree is that he is of course, right: this is indeed an everything bubble, something we have been saying since inception.<blockquote>我们一致认为，他当然是对的：这确实是一个万物泡沫，这是我们从一开始就一直在说的。</blockquote> And indicatively, whereas one year ago there was $1 trillion in distressed debt last year, since then that number has plunged to just $124.7 billion, aided by the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented steps to steady the&nbsp;markets&nbsp;economy.<blockquote>值得注意的是，一年前不良债务为 1 万亿美元，而去年不良债务为 1 万亿美元，而自那以后，在美联储为稳定市场经济而采取的前所未有的措施的帮助下，这一数字已骤降至 1247 亿美元。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Howard Marks: \"We Are In An Everything Bubble\"<blockquote>霍华德·马克斯：“我们正处于一切泡沫之中”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHoward Marks: \"We Are In An Everything Bubble\"<blockquote>霍华德·马克斯：“我们正处于一切泡沫之中”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-08-06 15:17\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe otherwise subdued and veryunhyperbolic Howard Marks caused quite a stir across trading desks (and perhaps the Marriner Eccles building) this afternoon, when speaking to Bloomberg's Erik Shatzker, the Oaktree co-founder said what has been obvious to most - even if it carries high career risk in saying it in public - that “we’re in an everything bubble\" adding that \"I don’t say today, but let’s not miss the opportunity to let the rates float back up.\"<blockquote>否则温顺而非常一霍华德-马克斯（Howard Marks）夸张的言论在交易柜台（或许还有马里纳-埃克尔斯大厦）引起了不小的轰动。这位橡树联合创始人在接受彭博社记者埃里克-沙茨克（Erik Shatzker）采访时表示，对大多数人来说都是显而易见的--即使在公开场合说这样的话会带来很高的职业风险--那就是 “我们处在一个一切泡沫中“我今天不说，但我们不要错过让利率回升的机会。”</blockquote> \"The stock market is high and the S&amp;P is at 4,400. Last March 2,200. Doubled. Prices are high. Real estate has come back. Certain sectors are very strong like infrastructure, real estate, distribution centers and so forth. We are in a low return world. The lowest returns we've ever seen prospectively.\"<blockquote>“股市高企，标准普尔指数为 4,400 点。去年 3 月为 2,200 点。翻了一番。价格高企。房地产又回来了。某些行业非常强劲，例如基础设施、房地产、配送中心等等。我们正处于一个低回报的世界。这是我们有史以来最低的回报。”</blockquote> Looking at his favorite Life Cycle of a market chart, Marks says that whereas normally the stock market and the economic cycles coincide, where the high in the stock market is close to the high in the economy and vice versa, today we have high stock prices and we are early in the economic cycle. \"That's unusual. You could say well this is bad because the recovery is nascent and stock prices are already high.\"<blockquote>看着他最喜欢的市场图表生命周期，马克斯说，虽然通常股票市场和经济周期是一致的，股票市场的高点接近经济的高点，反之亦然，但今天我们的股票价格很高，我们正处于经济周期的早期。“这很不寻常。你可以说这很糟糕，因为经济复苏刚刚开始，股价已经很高了。”</blockquote> So what should happen? According to Marks, the Fed should \"leave the markets alone\", and \"remove the punch bowl somewhat\" so that interest rates can be what the economy and participants want them to be, not what the Fed wants them to be. Reminding viewers that the Fed missed an opportunity to raise rates in 2018 - when the market drop dragged the Fed right back in - Marks says \"let's not miss the opportunity to let rates go back up\"&nbsp; and the Fed should not hold back out of fear of another “taper tantrum.”<blockquote>那么应该发生什么呢？马克斯认为，美联储应该“不管市场”，并“在一定程度上移除潘趣酒”，以便利率可以成为经济和参与者希望的样子，而不是美联储希望的样子。马克斯提醒观众，美联储错过了 2018 年加息的机会--当时市场下跌将美联储拖了回来--他说 “我们不要错过让利率回升的机会”，美联储不应该因为害怕再次出现 “缩减利率恐慌”而犹豫不决。</blockquote> \"It's like with your kids. As a parent we can't be afraid of our kids tantrums. The Fed can't be afraid of investors' tantrums. The Fed has to do the right thing for the economy. It's job is not to make money for investors.And when the economy is strong you have to stop emergency measures and let rates go back up.\"<blockquote>“这就像对待你的孩子一样。作为父母，我们不能害怕孩子发脾气。美联储不能害怕投资者发脾气。美联储必须为经济做正确的事情。它的工作不是为投资者赚钱。当经济强劲时，你必须停止紧急措施并让利率回升。”</blockquote> But far from concern about the soaring prices (courtesy of the Fed's exploding balance sheet) that have made life for every middle-class American unbearable, his concern was for his fellow finance professions; to wit, pension funds and many other institutional investors rely on getting 7% returns every year, but that's impossible when the federal funds rate is zero.<blockquote>但他并不担心飙升的物价（这要归功于美联储爆炸式的资产负债表），这让每个美国中产阶级的生活都变得难以忍受，而是担心他的金融行业同行；也就是说，养老基金和许多其他机构投资者依赖每年获得7%的回报，但当联邦基金利率为零时，这是不可能的。</blockquote> Of course, running the most overlevered economy in history will be impossible when rates are 7% but by the time it comes crashing down, we are confident that Howard will be sitting on a beach far away, earning 7%.<blockquote>当然，当利率为7%时，运行历史上最过度的经济体是不可能的，但当利率崩溃时，我们相信霍华德将坐在遥远的海滩上，赚取7%的收入。</blockquote> Today’s credit markets offer “the lowest return we’ve ever seen, prospectively,” Marks said. It is still possible to make more than investing in U.S. Treasuries, but that is getting harder. “It’s never been this unrewarding.\"<blockquote>马克斯说，如今的信贷市场提供了 “我们所见过的最低回报”。除了投资美国国债之外，仍然有可能赚更多的钱，但这变得越来越困难。“从来没有这么没有回报”。</blockquote> Actually, a few million Robinhooders will beg to differ: with no risk-free returns left in the market, it means that anyone hoping to generate any material alpha is forced into chasing meme stonks which is great as long as they go up, but catastrophic once they plunge as Robinhood did today following yesterday's gamma squeeze. But yes, there is no disputing that the Fed has broken the market. Where our view differs with Howard's, is that we are absolutely certain that it is now completely impossible to undo 12 years of Fed central planning and micromanagement of markets. Back in 2009 it may still have been feasible to extricate asset prices from monetary policy, but now it is too late.<blockquote>事实上，几百万 Robinhooders 会不敢苟同：由于市场上没有无风险回报，这意味着任何希望产生任何物质 alpha 的人都被迫追逐 meme stonks，只要它们上涨，这就很棒，但一旦它们暴跌，就像 Robinhood 在昨天的伽马挤压之后今天所做的那样，那就是灾难性的。但没错，美联储打破了市场，这一点毋庸置疑。我们的观点与霍华德的不同之处在于，我们绝对肯定，现在完全不可能撤销美联储12年来对市场的中央规划和微观管理。早在2009年，将资产价格从货币政策中解脱出来或许还是可行的，但现在为时已晚。</blockquote> Where we agree is that he is of course, right: this is indeed an everything bubble, something we have been saying since inception.<blockquote>我们一致认为，他当然是对的：这确实是一个万物泡沫，这是我们从一开始就一直在说的。</blockquote> And indicatively, whereas one year ago there was $1 trillion in distressed debt last year, since then that number has plunged to just $124.7 billion, aided by the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented steps to steady the&nbsp;markets&nbsp;economy.<blockquote>值得注意的是，一年前不良债务为 1 万亿美元，而去年不良债务为 1 万亿美元，而自那以后，在美联储为稳定市场经济而采取的前所未有的措施的帮助下，这一数字已骤降至 1247 亿美元。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/howard-marks-we-are-everything-bubble\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/howard-marks-we-are-everything-bubble","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111284888","content_text":"The otherwise subdued and veryunhyperbolic Howard Marks caused quite a stir across trading desks (and perhaps the Marriner Eccles building) this afternoon, when speaking to Bloomberg's Erik Shatzker, the Oaktree co-founder said what has been obvious to most - even if it carries high career risk in saying it in public - that “we’re in an everything bubble\" adding that \"I don’t say today, but let’s not miss the opportunity to let the rates float back up.\"\n\"The stock market is high and the S&P is at 4,400. Last March 2,200. Doubled. Prices are high. Real estate has come back. Certain sectors are very strong like infrastructure, real estate, distribution centers and so forth. We are in a low return world. The lowest returns we've ever seen prospectively.\"\nLooking at his favorite Life Cycle of a market chart, Marks says that whereas normally the stock market and the economic cycles coincide, where the high in the stock market is close to the high in the economy and vice versa, today we have high stock prices and we are early in the economic cycle. \"That's unusual. You could say well this is bad because the recovery is nascent and stock prices are already high.\"\nSo what should happen? According to Marks, the Fed should \"leave the markets alone\", and \"remove the punch bowl somewhat\" so that interest rates can be what the economy and participants want them to be, not what the Fed wants them to be. Reminding viewers that the Fed missed an opportunity to raise rates in 2018 - when the market drop dragged the Fed right back in - Marks says \"let's not miss the opportunity to let rates go back up\"  and the Fed should not hold back out of fear of another “taper tantrum.”\n\"It's like with your kids. As a parent we can't be afraid of our kids tantrums. The Fed can't be afraid of investors' tantrums. The Fed has to do the right thing for the economy. It's job is not to make money for investors.And when the economy is strong you have to stop emergency measures and let rates go back up.\"\nBut far from concern about the soaring prices (courtesy of the Fed's exploding balance sheet) that have made life for every middle-class American unbearable, his concern was for his fellow finance professions; to wit, pension funds and many other institutional investors rely on getting 7% returns every year, but that's impossible when the federal funds rate is zero.\nOf course, running the most overlevered economy in history will be impossible when rates are 7% but by the time it comes crashing down, we are confident that Howard will be sitting on a beach far away, earning 7%.\nToday’s credit markets offer “the lowest return we’ve ever seen, prospectively,” Marks said. It is still possible to make more than investing in U.S. Treasuries, but that is getting harder. “It’s never been this unrewarding.\"\nActually, a few million Robinhooders will beg to differ: with no risk-free returns left in the market, it means that anyone hoping to generate any material alpha is forced into chasing meme stonks which is great as long as they go up, but catastrophic once they plunge as Robinhood did today following yesterday's gamma squeeze. But yes, there is no disputing that the Fed has broken the market. Where our view differs with Howard's, is that we are absolutely certain that it is now completely impossible to undo 12 years of Fed central planning and micromanagement of markets. Back in 2009 it may still have been feasible to extricate asset prices from monetary policy, but now it is too late.\nWhere we agree is that he is of course, right: this is indeed an everything bubble, something we have been saying since inception.\nAnd indicatively, whereas one year ago there was $1 trillion in distressed debt last year, since then that number has plunged to just $124.7 billion, aided by the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented steps to steady the markets economy.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":829,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":5,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/893972846"}