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2021-08-12

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A Three-Prong Crucible? Markets Eye Record Highs Amid Inflation, Fiscal, And Delta Uncertainty<blockquote>三叉坩埚？在通胀、财政和三角洲的不确定性中，市场关注历史新高</blockquote>

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Markets Eye Record Highs Amid Inflation, Fiscal, And Delta Uncertainty<blockquote>三叉坩埚？在通胀、财政和三角洲的不确定性中，市场关注历史新高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2158250170","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Yesterday the market got behind the Fed’s idea that inflation is transitory after a calm consumer price index (CPI) reading. ","content":"Yesterday the market got behind the Fed’s idea that inflation is transitory after a calm consumer price index (CPI) reading.<blockquote>昨天，在消费者价格指数（CPI）数据平静后，市场支持美联储的观点，即通胀是暂时的。</blockquote> Will that change today after a sizzling producer price index (PPI) reading? Remember that any gains in PPI can often get reflected in CPI down the road as companies react to higher wholesale prices by passing them along to the consumer. And then there’s the other side of the coin—where companies absorb these prices, which can impact margins. Either way, inflation tends to pack a wallop.<blockquote>在生产者价格指数（PPI）数据炙手可热之后，今天这种情况会改变吗？请记住，PPI的任何上涨通常都会反映在未来的CPI中，因为企业会通过将批发价格上涨转嫁给消费者来应对批发价格上涨。还有硬币的另一面——公司吸收这些价格，这可能会影响利润率。无论哪种方式，通货膨胀往往会产生影响。</blockquote> Major indices didn’t immediately react much to a July PPI reading of 1%, which was way above the Wall Street analyst consensus of 0.5%. That followed yesterday’s CPI coming in about as expected and well below the June level. The July PPI was equal to June’s, so that kind of takes a bit of the transitory argument away. Also, core PPI, which strips out volatile energy and food prices, was the same as the headline figure, so there’s no hiding behind that.<blockquote>主要股指没有立即对7月份PPI读数1%做出太大反应，该读数远高于华尔街分析师普遍预期的0.5%。此前，昨天的CPI与预期大致相同，远低于6月份的水平。7月份的生产者价格指数与6月份持平，因此这在某种程度上消除了一些暂时性的论点。此外，剔除波动较大的能源和食品价格的核心生产者价格指数与总体数据相同，因此这背后没有任何隐藏。</blockquote> The PPI report is just the start of today’s action. Later on,&nbsp;Disney&nbsp;(NYSE:DIS)&nbsp;steps onto center stage&nbsp;with its earnings report. Focus is likely to be on streaming and whether the Delta variant might slow attendance gains at theme parks and movie theaters. It’s likely DIS executives will be asked how the big jump in Florida cases is affecting the Magic Kingdom in Orlando.<blockquote>PPI报告只是今天行动的开始。后来，迪斯尼（纽约证券交易所股票代码：DIS）凭借其收益报告走上舞台。焦点可能是流媒体以及德尔塔变异毒株是否会减缓主题公园和电影院的上座率增长。DIS高管很可能会被问及佛罗里达州案件的大幅增加如何影响奥兰多的魔法王国。</blockquote> Weekly jobless claims of 375,000 were more in line with estimates and pretty much down the middle compared with recent numbers. There doesn’t seem to be much improvement going on here, but it’s not getting worse, either. The number probably won’t have much influence today.<blockquote>每周申请失业救济人数为375,000人，更符合预期，与最近的数字相比几乎处于中间位置。这里似乎没有太大的改善，但也没有变得更糟。这个数字在今天可能不会有太大影响。</blockquote> Instead, investors are likely to spend their time trying to make sense of these contrasting inflation indicators, which might explain why major indices initially went nowhere in pre-market trading on the PPI reading. Does this strong PPI give the Fed more reason to begin its tapering earlier than expected, or will the Fed wait for another month of data to try and get more clarity? If history means anything, we can probably bet on option two.<blockquote>相反，投资者可能会花时间试图理解这些截然不同的通胀指标，这或许可以解释为什么主要指数最初在PPI读数的盘前交易中毫无进展。强劲的PPI是否让美联储有更多理由比预期更早开始缩减规模，或者美联储是否会等待另一个月的数据来尝试获得更多清晰度？如果历史有任何意义，我们或许可以赌第二种选择。</blockquote> <h2>Inflationary Showdown Shows Slight Slowdown</h2> Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report told investors mostly what they already knew: overall inflation is running hot. But that’s not what the market was keen to focus on. Instead, investors appeared to be looking at the core CPI, which jumped 4.3% year over year as expected but only 0.3% on a monthly basis—a tad less than the 0.4% analysts estimated.<blockquote><h2>通胀摊牌略有放缓</h2>周三的消费者价格指数（CPI）报告告诉了投资者大部分他们已经知道的事情：整体通胀正在升温。但这并不是市场热衷于关注的。相反，投资者似乎关注的是核心CPI，该CPI同比上涨4.3%，符合预期，但环比仅上涨0.3%，略低于分析师预期的0.4%。</blockquote> On top of this, the Fed’s “transitory” narrative suddenly seemed a bit more believable as a slowdown in used car prices likely allayed fears of a monetary sudden-brake shock. Used car prices rose only 0.2% in July, a small bump compared to the prior month’s steep 10% surge.<blockquote>最重要的是，美联储的“暂时性”叙述突然变得更加可信，因为二手车价格放缓可能会缓解人们对货币急刹车冲击的担忧。7月份二手车价格仅上涨0.2%，与上个月10%的大幅上涨相比小幅上涨。</blockquote> But again, this morning’s PPI seems to be at least a partial counterargument to the transitory view. A single month’s data isn’t a trend, but this is certainly <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> to keep an eye on.<blockquote>但同样，今天上午的PPI似乎至少是对暂时性观点的部分反驳。单月的数据不是趋势，但这肯定是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>来留意。</blockquote> Following the CPI report, the&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;($DJI) jumped as much as 200 points, with&nbsp;Caterpillar&nbsp;(NYSE:CAT) and&nbsp;Home Depot&nbsp;(NYSE:HD) leading the index, while 10-year Treasury yields stood mostly flat, and “FAANG” stocks slid into negative territory, with the exception of&nbsp;Apple&nbsp;(NASDAQ:AAPL). Could it be that fears of a “too-laid-back” Fed policy are starting to morph into a “just right” Goldilocks scenario?<blockquote>继CPI报告之后，道琼斯工业平均指数($DJI)上涨200点，卡特彼勒（纽约证券交易所代码：CAT）和家得宝(NYSE：HD)领涨该指数，而10年期国债收益率基本持平，“FAANG”股票跌至负值区域，但苹果（纳斯达克：AAPL）。对美联储政策“过于宽松”的担忧是否开始演变成“恰到好处”的金发姑娘情景？</blockquote> Big cyclical sectors like Energy and Financials were already on the upswing this week even before yesterday’s bullish CPI data. Strength in these sectors helped give the blue-chip&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;($DJI) a lift so far over the other major indices.<blockquote>甚至在昨天看涨的CPI数据公布之前，能源和金融等大型周期性板块本周就已经在上涨。这些行业的走强帮助蓝筹股道琼斯工业平均指数($DJI)迄今为止的涨幅高于其他主要指数。</blockquote> <h2>Small-Caps Still Scuffling</h2> So where does that leave small-caps, which are often known for their solid performance during economic recoveries? The small-cap&nbsp;Russell 2000 Index&nbsp;(RUT) is still scuffling a bit, pretty much flat so far this month and well below its 2021 highs. It did rise a bit on Wednesday, but again got outpaced by the $DJI. It’s basically still stuck in a volatile 5-month “rut” despite the strong and steady doses of easy-money policy.<blockquote><h2>小盘股仍在混战</h2>那么，通常以在经济复苏期间表现稳健而闻名的小盘股将何去何从呢？小盘股罗素2000指数(RUT)仍在挣扎，本月迄今为止基本持平，远低于2021年的高点。周三确实上涨了一点，但再次被美元DJI超越。尽管采取了强有力且稳定的宽松货币政策，但它基本上仍然陷入了动荡的5个月“窠臼”。</blockquote> It might be worth watching to see if RUT can break out of the slow pattern it entered after emerging from its early summer selloff. Which way RUT goes from here might help provide clues about the market as a whole, because RUT can be an early leader up or down.<blockquote>看看RUT是否能打破初夏抛售后进入的缓慢模式可能值得关注。RUT从这里走向何方可能有助于提供有关整个市场的线索，因为RUT可能是早期上涨或下跌的领导者。</blockquote> Another consideration is where the&nbsp;FAANG stocks&nbsp;go if Treasury yields resume their climb. Remember that earlier this year, rising yields appeared to take a big bite out of the “mega-cap” Tech stocks, with AAPL and&nbsp;Tesla&nbsp;(NASDAQ:TSLA) among that hit hardest. It’s fine to say that Financials and Energy can pick up the slack, but that ignores the fact that the FAANGs—like it or not—comprise about 20% of the value of the SPX. That means any significant setbacks for these huge companies could drag the overall index.<blockquote>另一个考虑因素是，如果美国国债收益率恢复攀升，FAANG股票将何去何从。请记住，今年早些时候，收益率上升似乎对“大型”科技股造成了很大影响，苹果公司和特斯拉（纳斯达克：TSLA）是受打击最严重国家之一。可以说金融和能源可以弥补这一缺口，但这忽略了一个事实，即FAANG——不管你喜欢与否——约占SPX价值的20%。这意味着这些大公司的任何重大挫折都可能拖累整体指数。</blockquote> Since May, mega-cap Techs have been helping pull up the SPX while some of the other sectors struggle. Analysts are talking about how the rally has less “depth,” meaning it’s more dependent on a few big gorillas to keep it going. While yields aren’t in the kind of territory we saw last spring, it’s worth watching that relationship between yields and FAANGs for clues about where the market goes next.<blockquote>自5月份以来，大型科技股一直在帮助拉升SPX指数，而其他一些行业却陷入困境。分析师们正在谈论涨势的“深度”如何降低，这意味着它更依赖于几只大猩猩来维持涨势。虽然收益率没有达到我们去年春天看到的水平，但值得关注收益率和FAANG之间的关系，以寻找市场下一步走向的线索。</blockquote> If inflation growth is actually slowing—and one CPI report isn’t a trend—that could drive optimism that the Fed won’t clamp down right away, perhaps keeping yields from overheating and mega-caps from melting down. Now the PPI report may have people rethinking that. The tug of war continues.<blockquote>如果通胀增长实际上正在放缓——而一份CPI报告并不是趋势——这可能会激发人们的乐观情绪，即美联储不会立即收紧政策，或许会防止收益率过热和大型股崩溃。现在PPI报告可能会让人们重新思考这一点。拉锯战仍在继续。</blockquote> <h2>The Sweet And The Sour Impact Of Washington</h2> Stocks got a nice assist from Congress earlier this week when the Senate passed the infrastructure bill. On the opposite side of the equation, markets seem to be ignoring a debate in Congress over the debt ceiling. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen encouraged the parties to find a solution, and for now, the thinking on Wall Street seems to be that there will be one. However, that doesn’t mean a smooth process.<blockquote><h2>华盛顿的酸甜苦辣影响</h2>本周早些时候，当参议院通过基础设施法案时，股市得到了国会的良好帮助。另一方面，市场似乎忽视了国会关于债务上限的辩论。财政部长珍妮特·耶伦鼓励各方找到解决方案，目前华尔街的想法似乎是会有一个解决方案。然而，这并不意味着一个顺利的过程。</blockquote> There was eventually a solution in 2011, too, and the U.S. didn’t default on its debt payments. But it did see its credit rating lowered, and stocks took a pounding that summer. We’ll see if Congress can avoid getting to that point this time around. As a reminder, the debt ceiling has been raised numerous times since the 1980s, with both parties voting to do so. The last time was in 2019, under President Trump.<blockquote>2011年最终也有了解决方案，美国没有拖欠债务。但它的信用评级确实被下调，股市在那年夏天遭受重创。我们将看看国会这次是否能避免走到这一步。提醒一下，自20世纪80年代以来，债务上限已多次提高，两党都投票支持。上一次是在2019年，特朗普总统执政期间。</blockquote> If the debt ceiling fight starts to ramp up,&nbsp;volatility&nbsp;could eventually return. It’s not really a big factor right now, but don’t be surprised if we see some intraday volatility continue in the coming weeks.<blockquote>如果债务上限之争开始加剧，波动性最终可能会卷土重来。目前这并不是一个很大的因素，但如果我们看到未来几周内继续出现一些日内波动，请不要感到惊讶。</blockquote> You saw the beginnings of that the last couple of weeks, where we’d be up significantly in the morning and sell back off. Or be down significantly in the morning and rally back. We’re probably going to see that pattern continue because besides awaiting the next steps on the infrastructure bill, the market still awaits clarity from the Fed. And even though this bill is exciting, that clarity from the Fed is arguably the big cloud that everything else operates underneath right now as far as the market is concerned.<blockquote>你看到了过去几周的开始，我们会在早上大幅上涨并抛售。或者早上大幅下跌然后反弹。我们可能会看到这种模式继续下去，因为除了等待基础设施法案的下一步措施外，市场仍在等待美联储的澄清。尽管这项法案令人兴奋，但就市场而言，美联储的明确性可以说是目前其他一切都在其下运行的大乌云。</blockquote> For instance, yesterday Kansas City Fed President Esther George said it was time for the central bank to begin pulling back its bond-buying program. There’s been similar language from other Fed officials recently. No single person at the Fed sets policy, but at least a few seem to be chomping at the bit, so to speak, to start tapering.<blockquote>例如，昨天堪萨斯城联储主席埃丝特·乔治表示，央行是时候开始撤回债券购买计划了。最近，其他美联储官员也发表了类似的言论。美联储没有一个人制定政策，但至少有一些人似乎迫不及待地想开始缩减规模。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://tickertapecdn.tdameritrade.com/assets/images/pages/md/2021-08-12-chart.png\" tg-width=\"780\" tg-height=\"412\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">CHART OF THE DAY: WHAT’S YOUR 50? Though it’s been a while since the S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX—candlestick) suffered a setback, it’s worth noting that mid-month has been tough for it the last few months. That doesn’t mean there’s a selloff ahead, only that you might want to prepare for one if the pattern persists. Assuming things run into trouble, the level to watch is the 50-day moving average (blue line), which currently rests about 3% below the index. That’s pretty much how far things fell in mid-July when the last selloff occurred before the SPX bounced off of that 50-day MA. Data Source: S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices. Chart source: The thinkorswim® platform. For illustrative purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.<blockquote>每日图表：你的50岁是多少？尽管标普500指数（SPX-Candlestick）遭受挫折已经有一段时间了，但值得注意的是，过去几个月中旬对其来说一直很艰难。这并不意味着未来会出现抛售，只是如果这种模式持续下去，您可能需要为抛售做好准备。假设事情遇到麻烦，值得关注的水平是50日移动平均线（蓝线），目前该平均线比指数低约3%。这几乎就是7月中旬SPX从50日均线反弹之前的最后一次抛售发生时的跌幅。数据来源：标准普尔道琼斯指数。图表来源：thinkorswim®平台。仅用于说明目的。过去的表现并不能保证未来的结果。</blockquote> A Tale Of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA.U\">Two</a> Earnings And Reopening:&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA\">Two</a> earnings reports out this week help illustrate how people are still eager to get out of their homes despite Delta variant fears. First,&nbsp;Ebay&nbsp;(NASDAQ:EBAY) gave some muted Q3 guidance because people don’t want to stay home checking online auctions. Then dating site&nbsp;Bumble&nbsp;(NASDAQ:BMBL) did better than expected, also because people want to get out. This can show us two things. First, there’s still a lot of pent-up demand to get back to normal. Number two, EBAY might give us insight into what to expect from other retailers, especially those who rely a lot on digital, when retail earnings season gets underway in earnest next week.<blockquote>的故事<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA.U\">两个</a>收益和重新开业：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA\">两个</a>本周发布的收益报告有助于说明，尽管存在德尔塔变异毒株担忧，人们仍然渴望走出家门。首先，Ebay（纳斯达克：EBAY）给出了一些温和的第三季度指导，因为人们不想呆在家里查看在线拍卖。然后交友网站邦布尔（纳斯达克：BMBL）表现好于预期，也是因为人们想退出。这可以告诉我们两件事。首先，仍有很多被压抑的需求需要恢复正常。第二，当下周零售财报季正式开始时，EBAY可能会让我们深入了解对其他零售商的期望，尤其是那些严重依赖数字的零售商。</blockquote> Patience Could Be A&nbsp;Virtue With Infrastructure Stocks:&nbsp;Companies like&nbsp;U.S. Steel&nbsp;(NYSE:X),&nbsp;General Electric&nbsp;(NYSE:GE), and&nbsp;Cleveland-Cliffs&nbsp;(NYSE:CLF) all had a nice bump this week on the Senate’s infrastructure bill passage. But remember, this isn’t something that’s going to hit the economy for a while. If you’re looking longer term as an investor and you want to own these stocks for a few years, that’s probably where the bigger opportunity is. In the shorter term, you could see an initial bump, and then maybe a little bit of a flattening out.<blockquote>耐心可能是基础设施股票的一种美德：公司喜欢美国钢铁公司（纽约证券交易所代码：X），通用电气（纽约证券交易所代码：GE），以及克利夫兰悬崖（纽约证券交易所代码：CLF）本周，参议院基础设施法案的通过都取得了不错的进展。但请记住，这不会在一段时间内影响经济。如果您作为投资者着眼于长期，并且想持有这些股票几年，那么这可能是更大的机会。在短期内，你可能会看到最初的隆起，然后可能会有一点点变平。</blockquote> It could take six or nine months before you actually start to see some shovel-ready projects or even some of the architectural and engineering firms starting to lay all of this out. It is a huge undertaking. Long term, it could have a big impact on some of those companies. But again, it takes a while to get going.&nbsp;<blockquote>可能需要六到九个月的时间，你才会真正开始看到一些现成的项目，甚至一些建筑和工程公司开始布局所有这些。这是一项巨大的事业。从长远来看，这可能会对其中一些公司产生重大影响。但同样，这需要一段时间才能开始。 </blockquote> Not Enough Gloom For Gold To Shine?&nbsp;The traditional clash between market fundamentalists and chart technicians came to a head over gold at the skirmish zone of $1,670 an ounce range. Why $1,670? For “technical” traders, that price marks the critical 61.8%&nbsp;Fibonacci retracement&nbsp;level. If this makes no sense to you at all, as it is slightly complex for the uninitiated, just assume that it’s nearing the&nbsp;uncle point&nbsp;where either bulls pile in and prevail (which it appears they did), or they flee, dumping their long positions as bears overrun them.<blockquote>黑暗不足以让金子发光？市场原教旨主义者和图表技术人员之间的传统冲突在每盎司1670美元的冲突区域达到了顶峰。为什么是1670美元？对于“技术”交易者来说，该价格标志着关键的61.8%斐波那契回撤位。如果这对您来说完全没有意义，因为它对于门外汉来说有点复杂，请假设它接近叔叔点要么多头蜂拥而至并获胜（看起来他们做到了），要么他们逃离，在空头占领他们时抛售他们的多头头寸。</blockquote> The $1,670 range was tested twice before, in March, with bulls gaining the upper hand each time. But even that wasn’t enough to stem the tide of “risk-on” sentiment, leading to the fundamental vs technical commotion before yesterday’s Consumer Price Index and today’s Producer Price Index reports—both inflationary gauges; and gold, a traditional inflationary hedge. With not enough gloom to glide gold’s flight, will this week’s inflationary readings cause gold to shine or sizzle?<blockquote>此前曾在3月份两次测试1,670美元区间，每次都是多头占据上风。但即便如此，也不足以阻止“冒险”情绪的浪潮，导致在昨天的消费者价格指数和今天的生产者价格指数报告（两者都是通胀指标）之前基本面与技术面的骚动；以及黄金，一种传统的通胀对冲工具。由于没有足够的阴霾来拖累黄金的飞行，本周的通胀数据会导致黄金发光还是咝咝作响？</blockquote> TD Ameritrade® commentary for educational purposes only. Member SIPC.<blockquote>德美利证券®评论仅用于教育目的。成员SIPC。</blockquote> Image by Alessandro D'Andrea from Pixabay<blockquote>图片由Alessandro D'Andrea来自Pixabay</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A Three-Prong Crucible? Markets Eye Record Highs Amid Inflation, Fiscal, And Delta Uncertainty<blockquote>三叉坩埚？在通胀、财政和三角洲的不确定性中，市场关注历史新高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA Three-Prong Crucible? Markets Eye Record Highs Amid Inflation, Fiscal, And Delta Uncertainty<blockquote>三叉坩埚？在通胀、财政和三角洲的不确定性中，市场关注历史新高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\nBenzinga \n2021-08-12 22:14\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nYesterday the market got behind the Fed’s idea that inflation is transitory after a calm consumer price index (CPI) reading.<blockquote>昨天，在消费者价格指数（CPI）数据平静后，市场支持美联储的观点，即通胀是暂时的。</blockquote> Will that change today after a sizzling producer price index (PPI) reading? Remember that any gains in PPI can often get reflected in CPI down the road as companies react to higher wholesale prices by passing them along to the consumer. And then there’s the other side of the coin—where companies absorb these prices, which can impact margins. Either way, inflation tends to pack a wallop.<blockquote>在生产者价格指数（PPI）数据炙手可热之后，今天这种情况会改变吗？请记住，PPI的任何上涨通常都会反映在未来的CPI中，因为企业会通过将批发价格上涨转嫁给消费者来应对批发价格上涨。还有硬币的另一面——公司吸收这些价格，这可能会影响利润率。无论哪种方式，通货膨胀往往会产生影响。</blockquote> Major indices didn’t immediately react much to a July PPI reading of 1%, which was way above the Wall Street analyst consensus of 0.5%. That followed yesterday’s CPI coming in about as expected and well below the June level. The July PPI was equal to June’s, so that kind of takes a bit of the transitory argument away. Also, core PPI, which strips out volatile energy and food prices, was the same as the headline figure, so there’s no hiding behind that.<blockquote>主要股指没有立即对7月份PPI读数1%做出太大反应，该读数远高于华尔街分析师普遍预期的0.5%。此前，昨天的CPI与预期大致相同，远低于6月份的水平。7月份的生产者价格指数与6月份持平，因此这在某种程度上消除了一些暂时性的论点。此外，剔除波动较大的能源和食品价格的核心生产者价格指数与总体数据相同，因此这背后没有任何隐藏。</blockquote> The PPI report is just the start of today’s action. Later on,&nbsp;Disney&nbsp;(NYSE:DIS)&nbsp;steps onto center stage&nbsp;with its earnings report. Focus is likely to be on streaming and whether the Delta variant might slow attendance gains at theme parks and movie theaters. It’s likely DIS executives will be asked how the big jump in Florida cases is affecting the Magic Kingdom in Orlando.<blockquote>PPI报告只是今天行动的开始。后来，迪斯尼（纽约证券交易所股票代码：DIS）凭借其收益报告走上舞台。焦点可能是流媒体以及德尔塔变异毒株是否会减缓主题公园和电影院的上座率增长。DIS高管很可能会被问及佛罗里达州案件的大幅增加如何影响奥兰多的魔法王国。</blockquote> Weekly jobless claims of 375,000 were more in line with estimates and pretty much down the middle compared with recent numbers. There doesn’t seem to be much improvement going on here, but it’s not getting worse, either. The number probably won’t have much influence today.<blockquote>每周申请失业救济人数为375,000人，更符合预期，与最近的数字相比几乎处于中间位置。这里似乎没有太大的改善，但也没有变得更糟。这个数字在今天可能不会有太大影响。</blockquote> Instead, investors are likely to spend their time trying to make sense of these contrasting inflation indicators, which might explain why major indices initially went nowhere in pre-market trading on the PPI reading. Does this strong PPI give the Fed more reason to begin its tapering earlier than expected, or will the Fed wait for another month of data to try and get more clarity? If history means anything, we can probably bet on option two.<blockquote>相反，投资者可能会花时间试图理解这些截然不同的通胀指标，这或许可以解释为什么主要指数最初在PPI读数的盘前交易中毫无进展。强劲的PPI是否让美联储有更多理由比预期更早开始缩减规模，或者美联储是否会等待另一个月的数据来尝试获得更多清晰度？如果历史有任何意义，我们或许可以赌第二种选择。</blockquote> <h2>Inflationary Showdown Shows Slight Slowdown</h2> Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report told investors mostly what they already knew: overall inflation is running hot. But that’s not what the market was keen to focus on. Instead, investors appeared to be looking at the core CPI, which jumped 4.3% year over year as expected but only 0.3% on a monthly basis—a tad less than the 0.4% analysts estimated.<blockquote><h2>通胀摊牌略有放缓</h2>周三的消费者价格指数（CPI）报告告诉了投资者大部分他们已经知道的事情：整体通胀正在升温。但这并不是市场热衷于关注的。相反，投资者似乎关注的是核心CPI，该CPI同比上涨4.3%，符合预期，但环比仅上涨0.3%，略低于分析师预期的0.4%。</blockquote> On top of this, the Fed’s “transitory” narrative suddenly seemed a bit more believable as a slowdown in used car prices likely allayed fears of a monetary sudden-brake shock. Used car prices rose only 0.2% in July, a small bump compared to the prior month’s steep 10% surge.<blockquote>最重要的是，美联储的“暂时性”叙述突然变得更加可信，因为二手车价格放缓可能会缓解人们对货币急刹车冲击的担忧。7月份二手车价格仅上涨0.2%，与上个月10%的大幅上涨相比小幅上涨。</blockquote> But again, this morning’s PPI seems to be at least a partial counterargument to the transitory view. A single month’s data isn’t a trend, but this is certainly <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> to keep an eye on.<blockquote>但同样，今天上午的PPI似乎至少是对暂时性观点的部分反驳。单月的数据不是趋势，但这肯定是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>来留意。</blockquote> Following the CPI report, the&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;($DJI) jumped as much as 200 points, with&nbsp;Caterpillar&nbsp;(NYSE:CAT) and&nbsp;Home Depot&nbsp;(NYSE:HD) leading the index, while 10-year Treasury yields stood mostly flat, and “FAANG” stocks slid into negative territory, with the exception of&nbsp;Apple&nbsp;(NASDAQ:AAPL). Could it be that fears of a “too-laid-back” Fed policy are starting to morph into a “just right” Goldilocks scenario?<blockquote>继CPI报告之后，道琼斯工业平均指数($DJI)上涨200点，卡特彼勒（纽约证券交易所代码：CAT）和家得宝(NYSE：HD)领涨该指数，而10年期国债收益率基本持平，“FAANG”股票跌至负值区域，但苹果（纳斯达克：AAPL）。对美联储政策“过于宽松”的担忧是否开始演变成“恰到好处”的金发姑娘情景？</blockquote> Big cyclical sectors like Energy and Financials were already on the upswing this week even before yesterday’s bullish CPI data. Strength in these sectors helped give the blue-chip&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;($DJI) a lift so far over the other major indices.<blockquote>甚至在昨天看涨的CPI数据公布之前，能源和金融等大型周期性板块本周就已经在上涨。这些行业的走强帮助蓝筹股道琼斯工业平均指数($DJI)迄今为止的涨幅高于其他主要指数。</blockquote> <h2>Small-Caps Still Scuffling</h2> So where does that leave small-caps, which are often known for their solid performance during economic recoveries? The small-cap&nbsp;Russell 2000 Index&nbsp;(RUT) is still scuffling a bit, pretty much flat so far this month and well below its 2021 highs. It did rise a bit on Wednesday, but again got outpaced by the $DJI. It’s basically still stuck in a volatile 5-month “rut” despite the strong and steady doses of easy-money policy.<blockquote><h2>小盘股仍在混战</h2>那么，通常以在经济复苏期间表现稳健而闻名的小盘股将何去何从呢？小盘股罗素2000指数(RUT)仍在挣扎，本月迄今为止基本持平，远低于2021年的高点。周三确实上涨了一点，但再次被美元DJI超越。尽管采取了强有力且稳定的宽松货币政策，但它基本上仍然陷入了动荡的5个月“窠臼”。</blockquote> It might be worth watching to see if RUT can break out of the slow pattern it entered after emerging from its early summer selloff. Which way RUT goes from here might help provide clues about the market as a whole, because RUT can be an early leader up or down.<blockquote>看看RUT是否能打破初夏抛售后进入的缓慢模式可能值得关注。RUT从这里走向何方可能有助于提供有关整个市场的线索，因为RUT可能是早期上涨或下跌的领导者。</blockquote> Another consideration is where the&nbsp;FAANG stocks&nbsp;go if Treasury yields resume their climb. Remember that earlier this year, rising yields appeared to take a big bite out of the “mega-cap” Tech stocks, with AAPL and&nbsp;Tesla&nbsp;(NASDAQ:TSLA) among that hit hardest. It’s fine to say that Financials and Energy can pick up the slack, but that ignores the fact that the FAANGs—like it or not—comprise about 20% of the value of the SPX. That means any significant setbacks for these huge companies could drag the overall index.<blockquote>另一个考虑因素是，如果美国国债收益率恢复攀升，FAANG股票将何去何从。请记住，今年早些时候，收益率上升似乎对“大型”科技股造成了很大影响，苹果公司和特斯拉（纳斯达克：TSLA）是受打击最严重国家之一。可以说金融和能源可以弥补这一缺口，但这忽略了一个事实，即FAANG——不管你喜欢与否——约占SPX价值的20%。这意味着这些大公司的任何重大挫折都可能拖累整体指数。</blockquote> Since May, mega-cap Techs have been helping pull up the SPX while some of the other sectors struggle. Analysts are talking about how the rally has less “depth,” meaning it’s more dependent on a few big gorillas to keep it going. While yields aren’t in the kind of territory we saw last spring, it’s worth watching that relationship between yields and FAANGs for clues about where the market goes next.<blockquote>自5月份以来，大型科技股一直在帮助拉升SPX指数，而其他一些行业却陷入困境。分析师们正在谈论涨势的“深度”如何降低，这意味着它更依赖于几只大猩猩来维持涨势。虽然收益率没有达到我们去年春天看到的水平，但值得关注收益率和FAANG之间的关系，以寻找市场下一步走向的线索。</blockquote> If inflation growth is actually slowing—and one CPI report isn’t a trend—that could drive optimism that the Fed won’t clamp down right away, perhaps keeping yields from overheating and mega-caps from melting down. Now the PPI report may have people rethinking that. The tug of war continues.<blockquote>如果通胀增长实际上正在放缓——而一份CPI报告并不是趋势——这可能会激发人们的乐观情绪，即美联储不会立即收紧政策，或许会防止收益率过热和大型股崩溃。现在PPI报告可能会让人们重新思考这一点。拉锯战仍在继续。</blockquote> <h2>The Sweet And The Sour Impact Of Washington</h2> Stocks got a nice assist from Congress earlier this week when the Senate passed the infrastructure bill. On the opposite side of the equation, markets seem to be ignoring a debate in Congress over the debt ceiling. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen encouraged the parties to find a solution, and for now, the thinking on Wall Street seems to be that there will be one. However, that doesn’t mean a smooth process.<blockquote><h2>华盛顿的酸甜苦辣影响</h2>本周早些时候，当参议院通过基础设施法案时，股市得到了国会的良好帮助。另一方面，市场似乎忽视了国会关于债务上限的辩论。财政部长珍妮特·耶伦鼓励各方找到解决方案，目前华尔街的想法似乎是会有一个解决方案。然而，这并不意味着一个顺利的过程。</blockquote> There was eventually a solution in 2011, too, and the U.S. didn’t default on its debt payments. But it did see its credit rating lowered, and stocks took a pounding that summer. We’ll see if Congress can avoid getting to that point this time around. As a reminder, the debt ceiling has been raised numerous times since the 1980s, with both parties voting to do so. The last time was in 2019, under President Trump.<blockquote>2011年最终也有了解决方案，美国没有拖欠债务。但它的信用评级确实被下调，股市在那年夏天遭受重创。我们将看看国会这次是否能避免走到这一步。提醒一下，自20世纪80年代以来，债务上限已多次提高，两党都投票支持。上一次是在2019年，特朗普总统执政期间。</blockquote> If the debt ceiling fight starts to ramp up,&nbsp;volatility&nbsp;could eventually return. It’s not really a big factor right now, but don’t be surprised if we see some intraday volatility continue in the coming weeks.<blockquote>如果债务上限之争开始加剧，波动性最终可能会卷土重来。目前这并不是一个很大的因素，但如果我们看到未来几周内继续出现一些日内波动，请不要感到惊讶。</blockquote> You saw the beginnings of that the last couple of weeks, where we’d be up significantly in the morning and sell back off. Or be down significantly in the morning and rally back. We’re probably going to see that pattern continue because besides awaiting the next steps on the infrastructure bill, the market still awaits clarity from the Fed. And even though this bill is exciting, that clarity from the Fed is arguably the big cloud that everything else operates underneath right now as far as the market is concerned.<blockquote>你看到了过去几周的开始，我们会在早上大幅上涨并抛售。或者早上大幅下跌然后反弹。我们可能会看到这种模式继续下去，因为除了等待基础设施法案的下一步措施外，市场仍在等待美联储的澄清。尽管这项法案令人兴奋，但就市场而言，美联储的明确性可以说是目前其他一切都在其下运行的大乌云。</blockquote> For instance, yesterday Kansas City Fed President Esther George said it was time for the central bank to begin pulling back its bond-buying program. There’s been similar language from other Fed officials recently. No single person at the Fed sets policy, but at least a few seem to be chomping at the bit, so to speak, to start tapering.<blockquote>例如，昨天堪萨斯城联储主席埃丝特·乔治表示，央行是时候开始撤回债券购买计划了。最近，其他美联储官员也发表了类似的言论。美联储没有一个人制定政策，但至少有一些人似乎迫不及待地想开始缩减规模。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://tickertapecdn.tdameritrade.com/assets/images/pages/md/2021-08-12-chart.png\" tg-width=\"780\" tg-height=\"412\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">CHART OF THE DAY: WHAT’S YOUR 50? Though it’s been a while since the S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX—candlestick) suffered a setback, it’s worth noting that mid-month has been tough for it the last few months. That doesn’t mean there’s a selloff ahead, only that you might want to prepare for one if the pattern persists. Assuming things run into trouble, the level to watch is the 50-day moving average (blue line), which currently rests about 3% below the index. That’s pretty much how far things fell in mid-July when the last selloff occurred before the SPX bounced off of that 50-day MA. Data Source: S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices. Chart source: The thinkorswim® platform. For illustrative purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.<blockquote>每日图表：你的50岁是多少？尽管标普500指数（SPX-Candlestick）遭受挫折已经有一段时间了，但值得注意的是，过去几个月中旬对其来说一直很艰难。这并不意味着未来会出现抛售，只是如果这种模式持续下去，您可能需要为抛售做好准备。假设事情遇到麻烦，值得关注的水平是50日移动平均线（蓝线），目前该平均线比指数低约3%。这几乎就是7月中旬SPX从50日均线反弹之前的最后一次抛售发生时的跌幅。数据来源：标准普尔道琼斯指数。图表来源：thinkorswim®平台。仅用于说明目的。过去的表现并不能保证未来的结果。</blockquote> A Tale Of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA.U\">Two</a> Earnings And Reopening:&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA\">Two</a> earnings reports out this week help illustrate how people are still eager to get out of their homes despite Delta variant fears. First,&nbsp;Ebay&nbsp;(NASDAQ:EBAY) gave some muted Q3 guidance because people don’t want to stay home checking online auctions. Then dating site&nbsp;Bumble&nbsp;(NASDAQ:BMBL) did better than expected, also because people want to get out. This can show us two things. First, there’s still a lot of pent-up demand to get back to normal. Number two, EBAY might give us insight into what to expect from other retailers, especially those who rely a lot on digital, when retail earnings season gets underway in earnest next week.<blockquote>的故事<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA.U\">两个</a>收益和重新开业：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA\">两个</a>本周发布的收益报告有助于说明，尽管存在德尔塔变异毒株担忧，人们仍然渴望走出家门。首先，Ebay（纳斯达克：EBAY）给出了一些温和的第三季度指导，因为人们不想呆在家里查看在线拍卖。然后交友网站邦布尔（纳斯达克：BMBL）表现好于预期，也是因为人们想退出。这可以告诉我们两件事。首先，仍有很多被压抑的需求需要恢复正常。第二，当下周零售财报季正式开始时，EBAY可能会让我们深入了解对其他零售商的期望，尤其是那些严重依赖数字的零售商。</blockquote> Patience Could Be A&nbsp;Virtue With Infrastructure Stocks:&nbsp;Companies like&nbsp;U.S. Steel&nbsp;(NYSE:X),&nbsp;General Electric&nbsp;(NYSE:GE), and&nbsp;Cleveland-Cliffs&nbsp;(NYSE:CLF) all had a nice bump this week on the Senate’s infrastructure bill passage. But remember, this isn’t something that’s going to hit the economy for a while. If you’re looking longer term as an investor and you want to own these stocks for a few years, that’s probably where the bigger opportunity is. In the shorter term, you could see an initial bump, and then maybe a little bit of a flattening out.<blockquote>耐心可能是基础设施股票的一种美德：公司喜欢美国钢铁公司（纽约证券交易所代码：X），通用电气（纽约证券交易所代码：GE），以及克利夫兰悬崖（纽约证券交易所代码：CLF）本周，参议院基础设施法案的通过都取得了不错的进展。但请记住，这不会在一段时间内影响经济。如果您作为投资者着眼于长期，并且想持有这些股票几年，那么这可能是更大的机会。在短期内，你可能会看到最初的隆起，然后可能会有一点点变平。</blockquote> It could take six or nine months before you actually start to see some shovel-ready projects or even some of the architectural and engineering firms starting to lay all of this out. It is a huge undertaking. Long term, it could have a big impact on some of those companies. But again, it takes a while to get going.&nbsp;<blockquote>可能需要六到九个月的时间，你才会真正开始看到一些现成的项目，甚至一些建筑和工程公司开始布局所有这些。这是一项巨大的事业。从长远来看，这可能会对其中一些公司产生重大影响。但同样，这需要一段时间才能开始。 </blockquote> Not Enough Gloom For Gold To Shine?&nbsp;The traditional clash between market fundamentalists and chart technicians came to a head over gold at the skirmish zone of $1,670 an ounce range. Why $1,670? For “technical” traders, that price marks the critical 61.8%&nbsp;Fibonacci retracement&nbsp;level. If this makes no sense to you at all, as it is slightly complex for the uninitiated, just assume that it’s nearing the&nbsp;uncle point&nbsp;where either bulls pile in and prevail (which it appears they did), or they flee, dumping their long positions as bears overrun them.<blockquote>黑暗不足以让金子发光？市场原教旨主义者和图表技术人员之间的传统冲突在每盎司1670美元的冲突区域达到了顶峰。为什么是1670美元？对于“技术”交易者来说，该价格标志着关键的61.8%斐波那契回撤位。如果这对您来说完全没有意义，因为它对于门外汉来说有点复杂，请假设它接近叔叔点要么多头蜂拥而至并获胜（看起来他们做到了），要么他们逃离，在空头占领他们时抛售他们的多头头寸。</blockquote> The $1,670 range was tested twice before, in March, with bulls gaining the upper hand each time. But even that wasn’t enough to stem the tide of “risk-on” sentiment, leading to the fundamental vs technical commotion before yesterday’s Consumer Price Index and today’s Producer Price Index reports—both inflationary gauges; and gold, a traditional inflationary hedge. With not enough gloom to glide gold’s flight, will this week’s inflationary readings cause gold to shine or sizzle?<blockquote>此前曾在3月份两次测试1,670美元区间，每次都是多头占据上风。但即便如此，也不足以阻止“冒险”情绪的浪潮，导致在昨天的消费者价格指数和今天的生产者价格指数报告（两者都是通胀指标）之前基本面与技术面的骚动；以及黄金，一种传统的通胀对冲工具。由于没有足够的阴霾来拖累黄金的飞行，本周的通胀数据会导致黄金发光还是咝咝作响？</blockquote> TD Ameritrade® commentary for educational purposes only. Member SIPC.<blockquote>德美利证券®评论仅用于教育目的。成员SIPC。</blockquote> Image by Alessandro D'Andrea from Pixabay<blockquote>图片由Alessandro D'Andrea来自Pixabay</blockquote>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GE":"GE航空航天","BMBL":"Bumble Inc.","CLF":"克利夫兰克里夫","X":"美国钢铁","DIS":"迪士尼","CAT":"卡特彼勒","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","HD":"家得宝","EBAY":"eBay","TSLA":"特斯拉","AAPL":"苹果"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2158250170","content_text":"Yesterday the market got behind the Fed’s idea that inflation is transitory after a calm consumer price index (CPI) reading.\nWill that change today after a sizzling producer price index (PPI) reading? Remember that any gains in PPI can often get reflected in CPI down the road as companies react to higher wholesale prices by passing them along to the consumer. And then there’s the other side of the coin—where companies absorb these prices, which can impact margins. Either way, inflation tends to pack a wallop.\nMajor indices didn’t immediately react much to a July PPI reading of 1%, which was way above the Wall Street analyst consensus of 0.5%. That followed yesterday’s CPI coming in about as expected and well below the June level. The July PPI was equal to June’s, so that kind of takes a bit of the transitory argument away. Also, core PPI, which strips out volatile energy and food prices, was the same as the headline figure, so there’s no hiding behind that.\nThe PPI report is just the start of today’s action. Later on, Disney (NYSE:DIS) steps onto center stage with its earnings report. Focus is likely to be on streaming and whether the Delta variant might slow attendance gains at theme parks and movie theaters. It’s likely DIS executives will be asked how the big jump in Florida cases is affecting the Magic Kingdom in Orlando.\nWeekly jobless claims of 375,000 were more in line with estimates and pretty much down the middle compared with recent numbers. There doesn’t seem to be much improvement going on here, but it’s not getting worse, either. The number probably won’t have much influence today.\nInstead, investors are likely to spend their time trying to make sense of these contrasting inflation indicators, which might explain why major indices initially went nowhere in pre-market trading on the PPI reading. Does this strong PPI give the Fed more reason to begin its tapering earlier than expected, or will the Fed wait for another month of data to try and get more clarity? If history means anything, we can probably bet on option two.\nInflationary Showdown Shows Slight Slowdown\nWednesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report told investors mostly what they already knew: overall inflation is running hot. But that’s not what the market was keen to focus on. Instead, investors appeared to be looking at the core CPI, which jumped 4.3% year over year as expected but only 0.3% on a monthly basis—a tad less than the 0.4% analysts estimated.\nOn top of this, the Fed’s “transitory” narrative suddenly seemed a bit more believable as a slowdown in used car prices likely allayed fears of a monetary sudden-brake shock. Used car prices rose only 0.2% in July, a small bump compared to the prior month’s steep 10% surge.\nBut again, this morning’s PPI seems to be at least a partial counterargument to the transitory view. A single month’s data isn’t a trend, but this is certainly one to keep an eye on.\nFollowing the CPI report, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) jumped as much as 200 points, with Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) and Home Depot (NYSE:HD) leading the index, while 10-year Treasury yields stood mostly flat, and “FAANG” stocks slid into negative territory, with the exception of Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL). Could it be that fears of a “too-laid-back” Fed policy are starting to morph into a “just right” Goldilocks scenario?\nBig cyclical sectors like Energy and Financials were already on the upswing this week even before yesterday’s bullish CPI data. Strength in these sectors helped give the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) a lift so far over the other major indices.\nSmall-Caps Still Scuffling\nSo where does that leave small-caps, which are often known for their solid performance during economic recoveries? The small-cap Russell 2000 Index (RUT) is still scuffling a bit, pretty much flat so far this month and well below its 2021 highs. It did rise a bit on Wednesday, but again got outpaced by the $DJI. It’s basically still stuck in a volatile 5-month “rut” despite the strong and steady doses of easy-money policy.\nIt might be worth watching to see if RUT can break out of the slow pattern it entered after emerging from its early summer selloff. Which way RUT goes from here might help provide clues about the market as a whole, because RUT can be an early leader up or down.\nAnother consideration is where the FAANG stocks go if Treasury yields resume their climb. Remember that earlier this year, rising yields appeared to take a big bite out of the “mega-cap” Tech stocks, with AAPL and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) among that hit hardest. It’s fine to say that Financials and Energy can pick up the slack, but that ignores the fact that the FAANGs—like it or not—comprise about 20% of the value of the SPX. That means any significant setbacks for these huge companies could drag the overall index.\nSince May, mega-cap Techs have been helping pull up the SPX while some of the other sectors struggle. Analysts are talking about how the rally has less “depth,” meaning it’s more dependent on a few big gorillas to keep it going. While yields aren’t in the kind of territory we saw last spring, it’s worth watching that relationship between yields and FAANGs for clues about where the market goes next.\nIf inflation growth is actually slowing—and one CPI report isn’t a trend—that could drive optimism that the Fed won’t clamp down right away, perhaps keeping yields from overheating and mega-caps from melting down. Now the PPI report may have people rethinking that. The tug of war continues.\nThe Sweet And The Sour Impact Of Washington\nStocks got a nice assist from Congress earlier this week when the Senate passed the infrastructure bill. On the opposite side of the equation, markets seem to be ignoring a debate in Congress over the debt ceiling. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen encouraged the parties to find a solution, and for now, the thinking on Wall Street seems to be that there will be one. However, that doesn’t mean a smooth process.\nThere was eventually a solution in 2011, too, and the U.S. didn’t default on its debt payments. But it did see its credit rating lowered, and stocks took a pounding that summer. We’ll see if Congress can avoid getting to that point this time around. As a reminder, the debt ceiling has been raised numerous times since the 1980s, with both parties voting to do so. The last time was in 2019, under President Trump.\nIf the debt ceiling fight starts to ramp up, volatility could eventually return. It’s not really a big factor right now, but don’t be surprised if we see some intraday volatility continue in the coming weeks.\nYou saw the beginnings of that the last couple of weeks, where we’d be up significantly in the morning and sell back off. Or be down significantly in the morning and rally back. We’re probably going to see that pattern continue because besides awaiting the next steps on the infrastructure bill, the market still awaits clarity from the Fed. And even though this bill is exciting, that clarity from the Fed is arguably the big cloud that everything else operates underneath right now as far as the market is concerned.\nFor instance, yesterday Kansas City Fed President Esther George said it was time for the central bank to begin pulling back its bond-buying program. There’s been similar language from other Fed officials recently. No single person at the Fed sets policy, but at least a few seem to be chomping at the bit, so to speak, to start tapering.\nCHART OF THE DAY: WHAT’S YOUR 50? Though it’s been a while since the S&P 500 Index (SPX—candlestick) suffered a setback, it’s worth noting that mid-month has been tough for it the last few months. That doesn’t mean there’s a selloff ahead, only that you might want to prepare for one if the pattern persists. Assuming things run into trouble, the level to watch is the 50-day moving average (blue line), which currently rests about 3% below the index. That’s pretty much how far things fell in mid-July when the last selloff occurred before the SPX bounced off of that 50-day MA. Data Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices. Chart source: The thinkorswim® platform. For illustrative purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.\nA Tale Of Two Earnings And Reopening: Two earnings reports out this week help illustrate how people are still eager to get out of their homes despite Delta variant fears. First, Ebay (NASDAQ:EBAY) gave some muted Q3 guidance because people don’t want to stay home checking online auctions. Then dating site Bumble (NASDAQ:BMBL) did better than expected, also because people want to get out. This can show us two things. First, there’s still a lot of pent-up demand to get back to normal. Number two, EBAY might give us insight into what to expect from other retailers, especially those who rely a lot on digital, when retail earnings season gets underway in earnest next week.\nPatience Could Be A Virtue With Infrastructure Stocks: Companies like U.S. Steel (NYSE:X), General Electric (NYSE:GE), and Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE:CLF) all had a nice bump this week on the Senate’s infrastructure bill passage. But remember, this isn’t something that’s going to hit the economy for a while. If you’re looking longer term as an investor and you want to own these stocks for a few years, that’s probably where the bigger opportunity is. In the shorter term, you could see an initial bump, and then maybe a little bit of a flattening out.\nIt could take six or nine months before you actually start to see some shovel-ready projects or even some of the architectural and engineering firms starting to lay all of this out. It is a huge undertaking. Long term, it could have a big impact on some of those companies. But again, it takes a while to get going. \nNot Enough Gloom For Gold To Shine? The traditional clash between market fundamentalists and chart technicians came to a head over gold at the skirmish zone of $1,670 an ounce range. Why $1,670? For “technical” traders, that price marks the critical 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. If this makes no sense to you at all, as it is slightly complex for the uninitiated, just assume that it’s nearing the uncle point where either bulls pile in and prevail (which it appears they did), or they flee, dumping their long positions as bears overrun them.\nThe $1,670 range was tested twice before, in March, with bulls gaining the upper hand each time. But even that wasn’t enough to stem the tide of “risk-on” sentiment, leading to the fundamental vs technical commotion before yesterday’s Consumer Price Index and today’s Producer Price Index reports—both inflationary gauges; and gold, a traditional inflationary hedge. With not enough gloom to glide gold’s flight, will this week’s inflationary readings cause gold to shine or sizzle?\nTD Ameritrade® commentary for educational purposes only. Member SIPC.\nImage by Alessandro D'Andrea from Pixabay","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EBAY":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"CAT":0.9,"QNETCN":0.9,"GE":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"BMBL":0.9,"CLF":0.9,"HD":0.9,"X":0.9,"DIS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1476,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":10,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/894062189"}