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2021-08-13
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5.5% GDP growth in 2022 plausible amid budget reconciliation: BofA<blockquote>美国银行：在预算协调的情况下，2022年GDP增长5.5%似乎是合理的</blockquote>
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According to a Bank of America Global Research (BAC) report by U.S. economist Michelle Meyer published in light of the infrastructure bill, BofA’s forecast of 5.5% real GDP growth for 2022 remains feasible.</p><p><blockquote>8月10日星期二，参议院通过了1.2万亿美元的基础设施一揽子计划两党协议，为全国各地的道路、桥梁、水路、公共交通、铁路、电网和宽带互联网增加约5500亿美元的新支出奠定了基础。根据美国经济学家米歇尔·迈耶根据基础设施法案发布的美国银行全球研究（BAC）报告，美国银行对2022年实际GDP增长5.5%的预测仍然可行。</blockquote></p><p> “Our baseline forecast of 5.5% real GDP growth next year assumes $2 trillion of new spending,” the report reads. “We think this is still in the ballpark and are awaiting to see how the reconciliation process unfolds.”</p><p><blockquote>报告中写道：“我们对明年实际GDP增长5.5%的基线预测假设新增支出为2万亿美元。”“我们认为这仍在大概范围内，正在等待和解进程如何展开。”</blockquote></p><p> Although $550 billion in new fiscal spending over the next five years from the infrastructure bill alone would not meet the mark for BofA’s baseline target of $2 trillion, the Democrats’$3.5 trillion budget resolutionmight do just that. The resolution, adopted in the Senate Wednesday morning in a 50-49 vote, could lead to bolstered spending towards the expansion of “human capital” infrastructure — Medicare and federal safety net programs, as well as federal child care, education, and climate change efforts. BofA’s report states that the company will not be amending its healthy economic forecast for next year just yet.</p><p><blockquote>尽管未来五年仅基础设施法案带来的5500亿美元新财政支出无法达到美国银行2万亿美元的基线目标，但民主党3.5万亿美元的预算决议可能会做到这一点。该决议于周三上午在参议院以50票对49票通过，可能会增加用于扩大“人力资本”基础设施的支出——医疗保险和联邦安全网计划，以及联邦儿童保育、教育和气候变化努力。美国银行的报告指出，该公司目前不会修改明年健康的经济预测。</blockquote></p><p> “While we may not see the reconciliation end up with such a high price tag, we expect a bill to be passed with many of the core objectives,” the report reads. “The bottom line: more fiscal expansion is on the way, but this is a very different form of stimulus than the COVID-relief programs.”</p><p><blockquote>报告中写道：“虽然我们可能不会看到和解以如此高的价格结束，但我们预计一项包含许多核心目标的法案将获得通过。”“底线是：更多的财政扩张即将到来，但这是一种与新冠救助计划截然不同的刺激形式。”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0826f560c8e50ecd2696f8d7f9816914\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"504\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>U.S. President Joe Biden discusses his 'Build Back Better' agenda for economic growth and job creation following early morning Senate passage of the bipartisan infrastructure bill and the budget resolution, during a speech in the East Room at the White House in Washington, U.S., August 11, 2021. REUTERS/Evelyn HocksteinMore</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2021年8月11日，美国总统乔·拜登在美国华盛顿白宫东厅发表讲话，讨论了参议院凌晨通过两党基础设施法案和预算决议后的经济增长和创造就业的“重建得更好”议程。路透社/伊芙琳·霍克斯坦莫尔</span></p></blockquote></p><p> And as the infrastructure bill now makes its way to the House, the report noted that the output “multiplier” for infrastructural spending is typically larger compared to other fiscal spending initiatives. With $110 billion being put towards roads, bridges, and other major projects as well as $66 billion towards passenger and freight railways, GDP may be boosted by $50 to $120 for every $100 spent on infrastructure in the medium term, without accounting for pay-fors. This equates to a multiplier of anywhere between 0.5 to 1.2 per historical data, BofA said.</p><p><blockquote>随着基础设施法案现已提交众议院，报告指出，与其他财政支出举措相比，基础设施支出的产出“乘数”通常更大。随着1100亿美元用于道路、桥梁和其他重大项目，660亿美元用于客运和货运铁路，在中期内，在基础设施上每花费100美元，GDP可能会增加50至120美元，而不考虑支付费用。美国银行表示，这相当于每个历史数据的乘数在0.5至1.2之间。</blockquote></p><p> According to BofA, the two primary ways in which infrastructure spending boosts GDP is through the direct effects of spending to subsidize various projects as well as the resulting gains to economic productivity and efficiency.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行表示，基础设施支出提振GDP的两种主要方式是通过支出补贴各种项目的直接影响以及由此带来的经济生产力和效率的提高。</blockquote></p><p> “Both provide medium-to-long term support for the economy in stark contrast to the immediate lift from the stimulus payments in the COVID relief bills,” the report reads.</p><p><blockquote>报告称：“两者都为经济提供了中长期支持，与新冠救助法案中刺激付款的立即提振形成鲜明对比。”</blockquote></p><p> Legislators continue to debate over the budget deficit implications the bill will have, with the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimating that it willincrease the deficit by $256 billionover the next decade.</p><p><blockquote>立法者继续就该法案对预算赤字的影响进行辩论，国会预算办公室(CBO)估计该法案将在未来十年内使赤字增加2560亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> “The debate seems to be over some of the assumptions of 'pay fors' such as repurposing unused COVID relief funds and using the savings generated by states that terminated unemployment insurance programs early,” the report reads. “There are no changes to corporate taxes, gas tax fees, or fees on electric vehicles.”</p><p><blockquote>报告中写道：“这场争论似乎是关于‘支付’的一些假设，例如重新利用未使用的新冠救助资金以及使用提前终止失业保险计划的州所产生的储蓄。”“公司税、汽油税或电动汽车费用没有变化。”</blockquote></p><p> In any case, Congress is set to have a busy fall season. BofA proposed a timeline of the infrastructure bill being signed into law by the end of August with the budget reconciliation passing in late-October. Congress will need to pass a continuing resolution by Sept. 30 as well asface the debt ceilingby mid-to-late fall.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，国会将迎来一个繁忙的秋季。美国银行提出了基础设施法案在8月底签署成为法律的时间表，并在10月底通过预算调节。国会需要在9月30日之前通过一项持续决议，并在秋季中下旬之前面临债务上限。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5.5% GDP growth in 2022 plausible amid budget reconciliation: BofA<blockquote>美国银行：在预算协调的情况下，2022年GDP增长5.5%似乎是合理的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5.5% GDP growth in 2022 plausible amid budget reconciliation: BofA<blockquote>美国银行：在预算协调的情况下，2022年GDP增长5.5%似乎是合理的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">finance.yahoo</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-13 21:19</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Senate’s passage of a$1.2 trillion infrastructure packagebipartisan agreement on Tuesday, Aug. 10, sets the stage to add around $550 billion in new spending to roads, bridges, waterways, public transit, railways, the power grid and broadband internet around the country. According to a Bank of America Global Research (BAC) report by U.S. economist Michelle Meyer published in light of the infrastructure bill, BofA’s forecast of 5.5% real GDP growth for 2022 remains feasible.</p><p><blockquote>8月10日星期二，参议院通过了1.2万亿美元的基础设施一揽子计划两党协议，为全国各地的道路、桥梁、水路、公共交通、铁路、电网和宽带互联网增加约5500亿美元的新支出奠定了基础。根据美国经济学家米歇尔·迈耶根据基础设施法案发布的美国银行全球研究（BAC）报告，美国银行对2022年实际GDP增长5.5%的预测仍然可行。</blockquote></p><p> “Our baseline forecast of 5.5% real GDP growth next year assumes $2 trillion of new spending,” the report reads. “We think this is still in the ballpark and are awaiting to see how the reconciliation process unfolds.”</p><p><blockquote>报告中写道：“我们对明年实际GDP增长5.5%的基线预测假设新增支出为2万亿美元。”“我们认为这仍在大概范围内，正在等待和解进程如何展开。”</blockquote></p><p> Although $550 billion in new fiscal spending over the next five years from the infrastructure bill alone would not meet the mark for BofA’s baseline target of $2 trillion, the Democrats’$3.5 trillion budget resolutionmight do just that. The resolution, adopted in the Senate Wednesday morning in a 50-49 vote, could lead to bolstered spending towards the expansion of “human capital” infrastructure — Medicare and federal safety net programs, as well as federal child care, education, and climate change efforts. BofA’s report states that the company will not be amending its healthy economic forecast for next year just yet.</p><p><blockquote>尽管未来五年仅基础设施法案带来的5500亿美元新财政支出无法达到美国银行2万亿美元的基线目标，但民主党3.5万亿美元的预算决议可能会做到这一点。该决议于周三上午在参议院以50票对49票通过，可能会增加用于扩大“人力资本”基础设施的支出——医疗保险和联邦安全网计划，以及联邦儿童保育、教育和气候变化努力。美国银行的报告指出，该公司目前不会修改明年健康的经济预测。</blockquote></p><p> “While we may not see the reconciliation end up with such a high price tag, we expect a bill to be passed with many of the core objectives,” the report reads. “The bottom line: more fiscal expansion is on the way, but this is a very different form of stimulus than the COVID-relief programs.”</p><p><blockquote>报告中写道：“虽然我们可能不会看到和解以如此高的价格结束，但我们预计一项包含许多核心目标的法案将获得通过。”“底线是：更多的财政扩张即将到来，但这是一种与新冠救助计划截然不同的刺激形式。”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0826f560c8e50ecd2696f8d7f9816914\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"504\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>U.S. President Joe Biden discusses his 'Build Back Better' agenda for economic growth and job creation following early morning Senate passage of the bipartisan infrastructure bill and the budget resolution, during a speech in the East Room at the White House in Washington, U.S., August 11, 2021. REUTERS/Evelyn HocksteinMore</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2021年8月11日，美国总统乔·拜登在美国华盛顿白宫东厅发表讲话，讨论了参议院凌晨通过两党基础设施法案和预算决议后的经济增长和创造就业的“重建得更好”议程。路透社/伊芙琳·霍克斯坦莫尔</span></p></blockquote></p><p> And as the infrastructure bill now makes its way to the House, the report noted that the output “multiplier” for infrastructural spending is typically larger compared to other fiscal spending initiatives. With $110 billion being put towards roads, bridges, and other major projects as well as $66 billion towards passenger and freight railways, GDP may be boosted by $50 to $120 for every $100 spent on infrastructure in the medium term, without accounting for pay-fors. This equates to a multiplier of anywhere between 0.5 to 1.2 per historical data, BofA said.</p><p><blockquote>随着基础设施法案现已提交众议院，报告指出，与其他财政支出举措相比，基础设施支出的产出“乘数”通常更大。随着1100亿美元用于道路、桥梁和其他重大项目，660亿美元用于客运和货运铁路，在中期内，在基础设施上每花费100美元，GDP可能会增加50至120美元，而不考虑支付费用。美国银行表示，这相当于每个历史数据的乘数在0.5至1.2之间。</blockquote></p><p> According to BofA, the two primary ways in which infrastructure spending boosts GDP is through the direct effects of spending to subsidize various projects as well as the resulting gains to economic productivity and efficiency.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行表示，基础设施支出提振GDP的两种主要方式是通过支出补贴各种项目的直接影响以及由此带来的经济生产力和效率的提高。</blockquote></p><p> “Both provide medium-to-long term support for the economy in stark contrast to the immediate lift from the stimulus payments in the COVID relief bills,” the report reads.</p><p><blockquote>报告称：“两者都为经济提供了中长期支持，与新冠救助法案中刺激付款的立即提振形成鲜明对比。”</blockquote></p><p> Legislators continue to debate over the budget deficit implications the bill will have, with the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimating that it willincrease the deficit by $256 billionover the next decade.</p><p><blockquote>立法者继续就该法案对预算赤字的影响进行辩论，国会预算办公室(CBO)估计该法案将在未来十年内使赤字增加2560亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> “The debate seems to be over some of the assumptions of 'pay fors' such as repurposing unused COVID relief funds and using the savings generated by states that terminated unemployment insurance programs early,” the report reads. “There are no changes to corporate taxes, gas tax fees, or fees on electric vehicles.”</p><p><blockquote>报告中写道：“这场争论似乎是关于‘支付’的一些假设，例如重新利用未使用的新冠救助资金以及使用提前终止失业保险计划的州所产生的储蓄。”“公司税、汽油税或电动汽车费用没有变化。”</blockquote></p><p> In any case, Congress is set to have a busy fall season. BofA proposed a timeline of the infrastructure bill being signed into law by the end of August with the budget reconciliation passing in late-October. Congress will need to pass a continuing resolution by Sept. 30 as well asface the debt ceilingby mid-to-late fall.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，国会将迎来一个繁忙的秋季。美国银行提出了基础设施法案在8月底签署成为法律的时间表，并在10月底通过预算调节。国会需要在9月30日之前通过一项持续决议，并在秋季中下旬之前面临债务上限。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/55-2022-gdp-growth-plausible-amid-budget-reconciliation-bof-a-131504551.html\">finance.yahoo</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/55-2022-gdp-growth-plausible-amid-budget-reconciliation-bof-a-131504551.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120232826","content_text":"The Senate’s passage of a$1.2 trillion infrastructure packagebipartisan agreement on Tuesday, Aug. 10, sets the stage to add around $550 billion in new spending to roads, bridges, waterways, public transit, railways, the power grid and broadband internet around the country. According to a Bank of America Global Research (BAC) report by U.S. economist Michelle Meyer published in light of the infrastructure bill, BofA’s forecast of 5.5% real GDP growth for 2022 remains feasible.\n“Our baseline forecast of 5.5% real GDP growth next year assumes $2 trillion of new spending,” the report reads. “We think this is still in the ballpark and are awaiting to see how the reconciliation process unfolds.”\nAlthough $550 billion in new fiscal spending over the next five years from the infrastructure bill alone would not meet the mark for BofA’s baseline target of $2 trillion, the Democrats’$3.5 trillion budget resolutionmight do just that. The resolution, adopted in the Senate Wednesday morning in a 50-49 vote, could lead to bolstered spending towards the expansion of “human capital” infrastructure — Medicare and federal safety net programs, as well as federal child care, education, and climate change efforts. BofA’s report states that the company will not be amending its healthy economic forecast for next year just yet.\n“While we may not see the reconciliation end up with such a high price tag, we expect a bill to be passed with many of the core objectives,” the report reads. “The bottom line: more fiscal expansion is on the way, but this is a very different form of stimulus than the COVID-relief programs.”\nU.S. President Joe Biden discusses his 'Build Back Better' agenda for economic growth and job creation following early morning Senate passage of the bipartisan infrastructure bill and the budget resolution, during a speech in the East Room at the White House in Washington, U.S., August 11, 2021. REUTERS/Evelyn HocksteinMore\nAnd as the infrastructure bill now makes its way to the House, the report noted that the output “multiplier” for infrastructural spending is typically larger compared to other fiscal spending initiatives. With $110 billion being put towards roads, bridges, and other major projects as well as $66 billion towards passenger and freight railways, GDP may be boosted by $50 to $120 for every $100 spent on infrastructure in the medium term, without accounting for pay-fors. This equates to a multiplier of anywhere between 0.5 to 1.2 per historical data, BofA said.\nAccording to BofA, the two primary ways in which infrastructure spending boosts GDP is through the direct effects of spending to subsidize various projects as well as the resulting gains to economic productivity and efficiency.\n“Both provide medium-to-long term support for the economy in stark contrast to the immediate lift from the stimulus payments in the COVID relief bills,” the report reads.\nLegislators continue to debate over the budget deficit implications the bill will have, with the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimating that it willincrease the deficit by $256 billionover the next decade.\n“The debate seems to be over some of the assumptions of 'pay fors' such as repurposing unused COVID relief funds and using the savings generated by states that terminated unemployment insurance programs early,” the report reads. “There are no changes to corporate taxes, gas tax fees, or fees on electric vehicles.”\nIn any case, Congress is set to have a busy fall season. BofA proposed a timeline of the infrastructure bill being signed into law by the end of August with the budget reconciliation passing in late-October. Congress will need to pass a continuing resolution by Sept. 30 as well asface the debt ceilingby mid-to-late fall.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":587,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":5,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/894774064"}
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