trevor_t3
2021-08-12
Good
3 Great Dividends You May Kick Yourself For Not Buying Now<blockquote>3 大红利 您可能会因为现在不购买而后悔</blockquote>
免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
分享至
微信
复制链接
精彩评论
我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白
打开APP，发表看法
APP内打开
发表看法
2
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":895883874,"tweetId":"895883874","gmtCreate":1628733264098,"gmtModify":1633689922365,"author":{"id":4091698713343880,"idStr":"4091698713343880","authorId":4091698713343880,"authorIdStr":"4091698713343880","name":"trevor_t3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7289d8efb289d515ed5d1fcab998f5c8","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":12,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Good</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Good</p></body></html>","text":"Good","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/895883874","repostId":1169921344,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169921344","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628729637,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1169921344?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-12 08:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Great Dividends You May Kick Yourself For Not Buying Now<blockquote>3 大红利 您可能会因为现在不购买而后悔</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169921344","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nQuality dividend-paying companies can be found in both bull and bear markets alike.\nIn this","content":"<p><h3><b>Summary</b></h3> <ul> <li>Quality dividend-paying companies can be found in both bull and bear markets alike.</li> <li>In this article, I highlight 3 stocks from vastly different industries that sport yields up to 9%.</li> <li>All 3 companies have durable and economically-essential business models.</li> </ul> There’s nothing like a diversified basket of quality dividend-paying companies that are strong on their own, and form a formidable force together. That’s because no matter how strong any individual company may be, it’s always important to diversify, diversify, diversify.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>总结</b></h3><ul><li>在牛市和熊市中都可以找到支付股息的优质公司。</li><li>在本文中，我重点介绍了 3 只来自截然不同行业的股票，它们的收益率高达 9%。</li><li>这三家公司都有持久且经济上必要的商业模式。</li></ul>没有什么比一篮子多元化的优质分红公司更强大了，它们本身就很强大，共同形成了一股强大的力量。这是因为，无论一家公司多么强大，多元化、多元化、多元化总是很重要的。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I present 3 strong dividend stocks that have weathered at least 2 recessions with their dividends intact and have strong growth prospects ahead. They come from vastly different, yet economically essential industries, thereby making their yields durable in their own right, so let’s get started.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我介绍了 3 只强劲的股息股票，它们至少经历了两次经济衰退，股息完好无损，并且未来具有强劲的增长前景。它们来自截然不同但又对经济至关重要的行业，因此它们的产量本身就具有可持续性，所以让我们开始吧。</blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>Pick #1: Omega Healthcare Investors</b></h3> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OHI\">Omega Healthcare Investors</a> is the largest publicly-traded REIT that’s focused primarily on skilled nursing facilities. At present, it owns over 900 properties spread across the U.S. and U.K. that are managed by 69 different operators.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>精选 #1：欧米茄医疗保健投资者</b></h3><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OHI\">欧米茄医疗保健投资者</a>是最大的公开交易房地产投资信托基金，主要专注于专业护理机构。目前，该公司在美国和英国拥有 900 多处房产，由 69 家不同的运营商管理。</blockquote></p><p> It’s worth mentioning that OHI has undergone 2 recessions without having to cut its dividend, and actually raised its dividend in 2008, during the Great Recession, when many REITs were forced to cut theirs. Much of this has to do with OHI’s durable triple-net lease model, in which the tenant is responsible for property taxes, maintenance, and insurance. There’s beauty in this model, as it results in a far lower operating cost structure than non-net lease counterparts.</p><p><blockquote>值得一提的是，OHI 曾经历过两次经济衰退，但都没有削减股息，而且在 2008 年大衰退期间，许多房地产投资信托基金被迫削减股息，实际上还提高了股息。这在很大程度上与 OHI 持久的三网租赁模式有关，在这种模式下，租户负责房产税、维护费和保险。这种模式有其优点，因为它的运营成本结构远低于非净租赁模式。</blockquote></p><p> This has helped OHI to avoid many of the issues that have plagued healthcare REIT peers Ventas (VTR) and Welltower (WELL), which have seniors housing operating assets that expose them to tenant risk, and were forced to cut their dividends last year. There’s also something to be said about the durability of the government pay model versus private pay, as it’s hard to imagine the government abandoning seniors who require post-surgery rehabilitation.</p><p><blockquote>这帮助 OHI 避免了困扰医疗保健 REIT 同行 Ventas (VTR) 和 Welltower (WELL) 的许多问题，这些公司拥有老年人住房运营资产，使他们面临租户风险，并且去年被迫削减股息。政府薪酬模式与私人薪酬模式的持久性也值得一提，因为很难想象政府会抛弃需要术后康复的老年人。</blockquote></p><p> While the skilled nursing sector has been challenged by the pandemic with lower occupancy, HHS (Health and Human Services) funds have helped buffer the blow to OHI’s tenants. This is reflected by tenant EBITDAR-to-rent coverage of 1.44x for the 12 months ended March 31, 2021 (tenant coverage metrics are reported 1 quarter in arrears), comparing favorably to the 1.32x coverage ratio in the prior-year period.</p><p><blockquote>虽然专业护理行业受到了大流行病的挑战，入住率下降，但 HHS（卫生与公众服务部）的资金帮助缓冲了对 OHI 租户的打击。截至 2021 年 3 月 31 日的 12 个月内，租户 EBITDAR 租金覆盖率为 1.44 倍（租户覆盖率指标报告为拖欠 1 个季度），与去年同期的 1.32 倍覆盖率相比，情况良好。</blockquote></p><p> In June, an operator representing 3% of OHI’s rent notified management of their inability to pay, due to wage inflation and occupancy issues. This is perhaps one of the factors that drove OHI’s share price down since the recent earnings release. While this is worth monitoring, this also isn’t management’s first rodeo, and I believe the company will be able to work through this, as they have in the past. Operators may come and go, but the properties still serve a critical need.</p><p><blockquote>今年 6 月，一家占 OHI 3% 租金的运营商通知管理层，由于工资上涨和入住问题，他们无力支付租金。这也许是自最近财报发布以来推动 OHI 股价下跌的因素之一。虽然这值得关注，但这也不是管理层的第一次竞技表演，我相信公司能够像过去一样度过难关。运营商可能会来来去去，但这些物业仍然满足了关键的需求。</blockquote></p><p> Looking forward, OHI should benefit from the so-called ‘silver tsunami’, as the baby boom generation is just starting to hit the age at which SNF services are needed. Meanwhile, I see value in OHI at the current price of $34.89, with a forward P/FFO of just 10.5. It carries an RSI score of 39, which indicates that it’s approaching oversold territory.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，OHI 应该会从所谓的 “白银海啸 ”中受益，因为婴儿潮一代刚刚开始进入需要 SNF 服务的年龄。与此同时，我认为 OHI 目前的价值为 34.89 美元，远期市盈率仅为 10.5。它的 RSI 得分为 39，表明它正在接近超卖区域。</blockquote></p><p> It also pays an attractive well-covered 7.7% dividend yield with a dividend-to-AFFO payout ratio of 79%. This is supported by a strong balance sheet, with a net debt to annualized EBITDA of just4.9x. OHI provides solid value, especially compared to healthcare REIT peers Ventas and Welltower, which are trading at forward P/FFO of 20 and 27, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>它还支付有吸引力的 7.7% 的股息收益率，股息与 AFFO 的支付率为 79%。这得到了强劲资产负债表的支持，净债务与年化 EBITDA 的比率仅为 4.9 倍。OHI 提供了坚实的价值，尤其是与医疗保健房地产投资信托基金同行 Ventas 和 Welltower 相比，它们的远期市盈率/FFO 分别为 20 和 27。</blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>Pick #2: Magellan Midstream Partners</b></h3> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MMP\">Magellan Midstream Partners LP</a> (issues Schedule K-1) is a well-known and respected MLP that primarily transports, stores, and distributes refined petroleum products and crude oil. It owns the longest refined petroleum products pipeline system in the U.S., and has access to nearly half of the country’s refining capacity, with storage capacity of 100 million barrels.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>精选 #2：麦哲伦中游合作伙伴</b></h3><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MMP\">麦哲伦中游合作伙伴有限公司</a>（问题附表K-1）是一家知名且受人尊敬的MLP，主要运输、储存和分销精炼石油产品和原油。它拥有美国最长的成品油管道系统，拥有美国近一半的炼油能力，储存能力达 1 亿桶。</blockquote></p><p> This has helped earn MMP a Wide-moat rating from Morningstar. Plus, Morningstar has assigned MMP an Exemplary rating for capital allocation, considering the strategic nature of MMP’s assets and that it hasn’t grown just for growth’s sake. This rating is also due to MMP’s prudently managed balance sheet, with a net debt to EBITDA ratio of just 3.3x, which sits at the low end compared to peers. The low leverage gives MMP plenty of capacity to buy back its units at attractive valuations, which it has done during the second quarter, with $82 million worth of unit repurchases.</p><p><blockquote>这帮助 MMP 获得了晨星公司的宽护城河评级。此外，晨星公司还授予 MMP 资本配置的典范评级，考虑到 MMP 资产的战略性质，以及 MMP 并非仅仅为了增长而增长。这一评级也得益于 MMP 的资产负债表管理谨慎，净债务与 EBITDA 的比率仅为 3.3 倍，与同行相比处于低端。低杠杆使 MMP 有足够的能力以有吸引力的估值回购其单位，该公司在第二季度就做到了这一点，回购了价值 8200 万美元的单位。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> MMP’s toll-road like business model has made it relatively immune to the fluctuations in oil prices over the past 15 months. Plus, the stable demand forecast makes it such that there is little to no incentive to build new pipelines, thereby making MMP’s existing assets all the more valuable to its upstream customers. In their latest analyst report, Morningstar bakes in a worst-case scenario, and had this to say about the durability of MMP’s return on invested capital:</p><p><blockquote>MMP 类似收费公路的商业模式使其在过去 15 个月中相对不受油价波动的影响。此外，稳定的需求预测使得几乎没有动机建设新的管道，从而使 MMP 的现有资产对其上游客户来说更有价值。晨星公司在最新的分析师报告中，对 MMP 投资资本回报率的持久性做出了如下评价：</blockquote></p><p> Even if we assume refined product pricing declines by 50% - an extremely unlikely scenario, given that pricing generally only moves a few percentage points annually - Magellan's ROICs are around 11% (versus 13% in our base case), demonstrating the strength of the business. ROICs are also supported by strong capital allocation as well as the elimination of its incentive distribution rights in 2010, which lowered its cost of capital. While long-term risks from energy evolution exist for MMP, it will take time, giving MMP plenty of time to buy back shares, and explore other investment areas and use cases for its pipelines, including hydrogen, RNG, and carbon capture, to name a few.</p><p><blockquote>即使我们假设精炼产品定价下降 50%（考虑到定价通常每年只波动几个百分点，这是一种极不可能的情况），麦哲伦的投资回报率约为 11%（而我们的基本情况为 13%），证明了该业务的实力。ROICs还得到了强大的资本配置以及2010年取消其激励分配权的支持，这降低了其资本成本。虽然 MMP 存在能源演变的长期风险，但这需要时间，让 MMP 有足够的时间回购股票，并探索其管道的其他投资领域和用例，包括氢能、RNG 和碳捕获等。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, I see value in MMP at the current price of $47 with a nearly 9% yield and a1.17xdistribution coverage ratio. MMP is also trading in value territory with an EV/EBITDA of 13.1, sitting below its pre-pandemic range of 15-22 in the years 2016-2020. MMP is a solid buy for potentially strong long-term gains.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，我认为 MMP 在当前 47 美元的价格下很有价值，收益率接近 9%，分销覆盖率为 1.17 倍。MMP 的交易价格也处于价值区域，EV/EBITDA 为 13.1，低于 2016-2020 年大流行前 15-22 的范围。MMP 是潜在强劲长期收益的可靠买入选择。</blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>Pick #3: Amgen</b></h3> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMGN\">Amgen</a> remains one of my favorite picks in the pharmaceutical sector. It’s been around since 1980, and today, is one of the largest biopharmaceutical companies in the world. Amgen’s therapies reach millions of patients in 100 countries, and is focused on the six therapeutic areas of cardiovascular, inflammation, neuroscience, oncology, bone health, and nephrology.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>选择#3：安进</b></h3><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMGN\">安进</a>仍然是我在制药行业最喜欢的选择之一。该公司自 1980 年成立以来，一直是世界上最大的生物制药公司之一。安进的疗法覆盖了 100 个国家的数百万患者，重点关注心血管、炎症、神经科学、肿瘤学、骨骼健康和肾脏病六个治疗领域。</blockquote></p><p> AMGN has sold off after its Q2 earnings release. As seen below, at the current price of $227.96, AMGN is now trading well below the $250 level that it reached back in July. It also has an RSI score of 33, indicating that it’s in oversold territory.</p><p><blockquote>AMGN 在第二季度财报发布后抛售。如下所示，AMGN 目前的价格为 227.96 美元，其交易价格远低于 7 月份达到的 250 美元水平。它的 RSI 得分也为 33，表明它处于超卖区域。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf2db10866aa63b02082d1691157f976\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> (Source: StockCharts)</p><p><blockquote>（来源：StockCharts）</blockquote></p><p> One of the reasons for the sell-off reaching is the lower earnings guidance of $9.37 (at the midpoint) that management is projecting for 2021. This sits 5% below management’s previous guidance of $9.91 at the midpoint. Meanwhile, adjusted EPS guidance remains unchanged from Q1’21 at $16.50 at the midpoint.</p><p><blockquote>抛售的原因之一是管理层预计 2021 年盈利指引较低，为 9.37 美元（中点）。这比管理层之前指导的中点 9.91 美元低 5%。与此同时，调整后每股收益指引与 21 年第一季度中点时的 16.50 美元不变。</blockquote></p><p> I see the sell-off as being an overreaction, considering the robust second quarter results that AMGN just posted, with revenue increasing by5%YoY to $6.5 billion. This was driven by strong volume growth and growth in AMGN’s newer drugs, Prolia and EVENITY (osteoporosis), and Repatha (cardiovascular diseases), which all posted double-digit YoY sales growth ranging from 24-43%.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到 AMGN 刚刚公布的强劲第二季度业绩，收入同比增长 5%，达到 65 亿美元，我认为此次抛售是一种过度反应。这得益于 AMGN 的新药 Prolia 和 EVENITY（骨质疏松症）以及 Repatha（心血管疾病）的强劲销量增长和增长，这两种药物的销售额同比增长均达到了 24-43% 不等。</blockquote></p><p> Looking forward, I’m encouraged by the launching of Lumakras, which is a first-in-class lung cancer treatment, and by AMGN’s burgeoning biosimilar practice, considering the higher margins associated with biosimilars compared to traditional generics. Plus, AMGN’s recently announced Teneobio acquisition is expected to close in the second half of this year, and should strengthen AMGN’s leadership in developing protein-based medicines to treat patients with serious illnesses.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，我对 Lumakras（一种一流的肺癌治疗药物）的上市以及 AMGN 蓬勃发展的生物仿制药业务感到鼓舞，因为与传统仿制药相比，生物仿制药的利润率更高。此外，AMGN 最近宣布收购 Teneobio 的交易预计将于今年下半年完成，这将加强 AMGN 在开发治疗严重疾病患者的蛋白质药物方面的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, AMGN remains one of the most shareholder-friendly companies, with a robust capital returns program. This is reflected by the 6.5 million shares that were repurchased during the second quarter alone for a total cost of $1.6 billion, and management is targeting $3-$5 billion in total repurchases this year. As seen below, AMGN’s total share count has been reduced by an impressive 23% over the past 5 years through share repurchases.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，AMGN 仍然是对股东最友好的公司之一，拥有强大的资本回报计划。仅在第二季度就回购了 650 万股股票，总成本为 16 亿美元，管理层的目标是今年的总回购金额为 3-50 亿美元。如下图所示，在过去 5 年中，通过股票回购，AMGN 的股票总数减少了 23%，令人印象深刻。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d535b01b01381632c9bfd459adde574\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"223\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Seeking Alpha)</p><p><blockquote>（来源：Seeking Alpha）</blockquote></p><p> AMGN maintains a strong balance sheet, with $8.1 billion in cash and short-term investments on hand, and an A- credit rating from S&P. It has a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 1.99x, sitting well below the 3.0x safe level that I prefer. This lends support to the 3.1% dividend yield, which comes with a low payout ratio of 43%, and a robust 13% 5-year CAGR. As seen below, the current yield is sitting at one of the highest levels over the past 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>AMGN 保持着强劲的资产负债表，手头拥有 81 亿美元的现金和短期投资，并获得标准普尔的 A- 信用评级。它的净债务与 EBITDA 比率为 1.99 倍，远低于我喜欢的 3.0 倍安全水平。这为 3.1% 的股息收益率提供了支持，该收益率为 43%，5 年复合年增长率为 13%。如下所示，目前的收益率处于过去 10 年来的最高水平之一。</blockquote></p><p> Note: the following 2.95% dividend yield is based on trailing 12 months, and the forward yield is 3.1%.</p><p><blockquote>注：以下2.95%的股息收益率基于过去12个月，远期收益率为3.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9b2e61be687209c9b9b7cf8ee9c05fb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> (Source: YCharts)</p><p><blockquote>（来源：YCharts）</blockquote></p><p></p><p> While AMGN comes with risks from patent cliffs, I see the company as being able to manage through these risks with its robust pipeline and knowledge platform from prior and existing drugs, which it can use to develop successor drugs. I see value in AMGN at the current price of $227.96, with a forward PE of 13.8, and analysts have consensus price target of $248. This implies a potential 12% 1-year return including dividends, which isn’t bad for a blue-chip in an overall frothy market. AMGN is a Buy.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 AMGN 面临着专利悬崖带来的风险，但我认为该公司能够通过其强大的现有药物管道和知识平台来管理这些风险，并可用于开发后续药物。我认为 AMGN 目前的价格为 227.96 美元，远期市盈率为 13.8，分析师一致目标价为 248 美元。这意味着包括股息在内的 1 年回报率可能达到 12%，这对于在整体泡沫市场中的蓝筹股来说已经不错了。AMGN 值得买入。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Great Dividends You May Kick Yourself For Not Buying Now<blockquote>3 大红利 您可能会因为现在不购买而后悔</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Great Dividends You May Kick Yourself For Not Buying Now<blockquote>3 大红利 您可能会因为现在不购买而后悔</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-12 08:53</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><h3><b>Summary</b></h3> <ul> <li>Quality dividend-paying companies can be found in both bull and bear markets alike.</li> <li>In this article, I highlight 3 stocks from vastly different industries that sport yields up to 9%.</li> <li>All 3 companies have durable and economically-essential business models.</li> </ul> There’s nothing like a diversified basket of quality dividend-paying companies that are strong on their own, and form a formidable force together. That’s because no matter how strong any individual company may be, it’s always important to diversify, diversify, diversify.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>总结</b></h3><ul><li>在牛市和熊市中都可以找到支付股息的优质公司。</li><li>在本文中，我重点介绍了 3 只来自截然不同行业的股票，它们的收益率高达 9%。</li><li>这三家公司都有持久且经济上必要的商业模式。</li></ul>没有什么比一篮子多元化的优质分红公司更强大了，它们本身就很强大，共同形成了一股强大的力量。这是因为，无论一家公司多么强大，多元化、多元化、多元化总是很重要的。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I present 3 strong dividend stocks that have weathered at least 2 recessions with their dividends intact and have strong growth prospects ahead. They come from vastly different, yet economically essential industries, thereby making their yields durable in their own right, so let’s get started.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我介绍了 3 只强劲的股息股票，它们至少经历了两次经济衰退，股息完好无损，并且未来具有强劲的增长前景。它们来自截然不同但又对经济至关重要的行业，因此它们的产量本身就具有可持续性，所以让我们开始吧。</blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>Pick #1: Omega Healthcare Investors</b></h3> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OHI\">Omega Healthcare Investors</a> is the largest publicly-traded REIT that’s focused primarily on skilled nursing facilities. At present, it owns over 900 properties spread across the U.S. and U.K. that are managed by 69 different operators.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>精选 #1：欧米茄医疗保健投资者</b></h3><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OHI\">欧米茄医疗保健投资者</a>是最大的公开交易房地产投资信托基金，主要专注于专业护理机构。目前，该公司在美国和英国拥有 900 多处房产，由 69 家不同的运营商管理。</blockquote></p><p> It’s worth mentioning that OHI has undergone 2 recessions without having to cut its dividend, and actually raised its dividend in 2008, during the Great Recession, when many REITs were forced to cut theirs. Much of this has to do with OHI’s durable triple-net lease model, in which the tenant is responsible for property taxes, maintenance, and insurance. There’s beauty in this model, as it results in a far lower operating cost structure than non-net lease counterparts.</p><p><blockquote>值得一提的是，OHI 曾经历过两次经济衰退，但都没有削减股息，而且在 2008 年大衰退期间，许多房地产投资信托基金被迫削减股息，实际上还提高了股息。这在很大程度上与 OHI 持久的三网租赁模式有关，在这种模式下，租户负责房产税、维护费和保险。这种模式有其优点，因为它的运营成本结构远低于非净租赁模式。</blockquote></p><p> This has helped OHI to avoid many of the issues that have plagued healthcare REIT peers Ventas (VTR) and Welltower (WELL), which have seniors housing operating assets that expose them to tenant risk, and were forced to cut their dividends last year. There’s also something to be said about the durability of the government pay model versus private pay, as it’s hard to imagine the government abandoning seniors who require post-surgery rehabilitation.</p><p><blockquote>这帮助 OHI 避免了困扰医疗保健 REIT 同行 Ventas (VTR) 和 Welltower (WELL) 的许多问题，这些公司拥有老年人住房运营资产，使他们面临租户风险，并且去年被迫削减股息。政府薪酬模式与私人薪酬模式的持久性也值得一提，因为很难想象政府会抛弃需要术后康复的老年人。</blockquote></p><p> While the skilled nursing sector has been challenged by the pandemic with lower occupancy, HHS (Health and Human Services) funds have helped buffer the blow to OHI’s tenants. This is reflected by tenant EBITDAR-to-rent coverage of 1.44x for the 12 months ended March 31, 2021 (tenant coverage metrics are reported 1 quarter in arrears), comparing favorably to the 1.32x coverage ratio in the prior-year period.</p><p><blockquote>虽然专业护理行业受到了大流行病的挑战，入住率下降，但 HHS（卫生与公众服务部）的资金帮助缓冲了对 OHI 租户的打击。截至 2021 年 3 月 31 日的 12 个月内，租户 EBITDAR 租金覆盖率为 1.44 倍（租户覆盖率指标报告为拖欠 1 个季度），与去年同期的 1.32 倍覆盖率相比，情况良好。</blockquote></p><p> In June, an operator representing 3% of OHI’s rent notified management of their inability to pay, due to wage inflation and occupancy issues. This is perhaps one of the factors that drove OHI’s share price down since the recent earnings release. While this is worth monitoring, this also isn’t management’s first rodeo, and I believe the company will be able to work through this, as they have in the past. Operators may come and go, but the properties still serve a critical need.</p><p><blockquote>今年 6 月，一家占 OHI 3% 租金的运营商通知管理层，由于工资上涨和入住问题，他们无力支付租金。这也许是自最近财报发布以来推动 OHI 股价下跌的因素之一。虽然这值得关注，但这也不是管理层的第一次竞技表演，我相信公司能够像过去一样度过难关。运营商可能会来来去去，但这些物业仍然满足了关键的需求。</blockquote></p><p> Looking forward, OHI should benefit from the so-called ‘silver tsunami’, as the baby boom generation is just starting to hit the age at which SNF services are needed. Meanwhile, I see value in OHI at the current price of $34.89, with a forward P/FFO of just 10.5. It carries an RSI score of 39, which indicates that it’s approaching oversold territory.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，OHI 应该会从所谓的 “白银海啸 ”中受益，因为婴儿潮一代刚刚开始进入需要 SNF 服务的年龄。与此同时，我认为 OHI 目前的价值为 34.89 美元，远期市盈率仅为 10.5。它的 RSI 得分为 39，表明它正在接近超卖区域。</blockquote></p><p> It also pays an attractive well-covered 7.7% dividend yield with a dividend-to-AFFO payout ratio of 79%. This is supported by a strong balance sheet, with a net debt to annualized EBITDA of just4.9x. OHI provides solid value, especially compared to healthcare REIT peers Ventas and Welltower, which are trading at forward P/FFO of 20 and 27, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>它还支付有吸引力的 7.7% 的股息收益率，股息与 AFFO 的支付率为 79%。这得到了强劲资产负债表的支持，净债务与年化 EBITDA 的比率仅为 4.9 倍。OHI 提供了坚实的价值，尤其是与医疗保健房地产投资信托基金同行 Ventas 和 Welltower 相比，它们的远期市盈率/FFO 分别为 20 和 27。</blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>Pick #2: Magellan Midstream Partners</b></h3> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MMP\">Magellan Midstream Partners LP</a> (issues Schedule K-1) is a well-known and respected MLP that primarily transports, stores, and distributes refined petroleum products and crude oil. It owns the longest refined petroleum products pipeline system in the U.S., and has access to nearly half of the country’s refining capacity, with storage capacity of 100 million barrels.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>精选 #2：麦哲伦中游合作伙伴</b></h3><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MMP\">麦哲伦中游合作伙伴有限公司</a>（问题附表K-1）是一家知名且受人尊敬的MLP，主要运输、储存和分销精炼石油产品和原油。它拥有美国最长的成品油管道系统，拥有美国近一半的炼油能力，储存能力达 1 亿桶。</blockquote></p><p> This has helped earn MMP a Wide-moat rating from Morningstar. Plus, Morningstar has assigned MMP an Exemplary rating for capital allocation, considering the strategic nature of MMP’s assets and that it hasn’t grown just for growth’s sake. This rating is also due to MMP’s prudently managed balance sheet, with a net debt to EBITDA ratio of just 3.3x, which sits at the low end compared to peers. The low leverage gives MMP plenty of capacity to buy back its units at attractive valuations, which it has done during the second quarter, with $82 million worth of unit repurchases.</p><p><blockquote>这帮助 MMP 获得了晨星公司的宽护城河评级。此外，晨星公司还授予 MMP 资本配置的典范评级，考虑到 MMP 资产的战略性质，以及 MMP 并非仅仅为了增长而增长。这一评级也得益于 MMP 的资产负债表管理谨慎，净债务与 EBITDA 的比率仅为 3.3 倍，与同行相比处于低端。低杠杆使 MMP 有足够的能力以有吸引力的估值回购其单位，该公司在第二季度就做到了这一点，回购了价值 8200 万美元的单位。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> MMP’s toll-road like business model has made it relatively immune to the fluctuations in oil prices over the past 15 months. Plus, the stable demand forecast makes it such that there is little to no incentive to build new pipelines, thereby making MMP’s existing assets all the more valuable to its upstream customers. In their latest analyst report, Morningstar bakes in a worst-case scenario, and had this to say about the durability of MMP’s return on invested capital:</p><p><blockquote>MMP 类似收费公路的商业模式使其在过去 15 个月中相对不受油价波动的影响。此外，稳定的需求预测使得几乎没有动机建设新的管道，从而使 MMP 的现有资产对其上游客户来说更有价值。晨星公司在最新的分析师报告中，对 MMP 投资资本回报率的持久性做出了如下评价：</blockquote></p><p> Even if we assume refined product pricing declines by 50% - an extremely unlikely scenario, given that pricing generally only moves a few percentage points annually - Magellan's ROICs are around 11% (versus 13% in our base case), demonstrating the strength of the business. ROICs are also supported by strong capital allocation as well as the elimination of its incentive distribution rights in 2010, which lowered its cost of capital. While long-term risks from energy evolution exist for MMP, it will take time, giving MMP plenty of time to buy back shares, and explore other investment areas and use cases for its pipelines, including hydrogen, RNG, and carbon capture, to name a few.</p><p><blockquote>即使我们假设精炼产品定价下降 50%（考虑到定价通常每年只波动几个百分点，这是一种极不可能的情况），麦哲伦的投资回报率约为 11%（而我们的基本情况为 13%），证明了该业务的实力。ROICs还得到了强大的资本配置以及2010年取消其激励分配权的支持，这降低了其资本成本。虽然 MMP 存在能源演变的长期风险，但这需要时间，让 MMP 有足够的时间回购股票，并探索其管道的其他投资领域和用例，包括氢能、RNG 和碳捕获等。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, I see value in MMP at the current price of $47 with a nearly 9% yield and a1.17xdistribution coverage ratio. MMP is also trading in value territory with an EV/EBITDA of 13.1, sitting below its pre-pandemic range of 15-22 in the years 2016-2020. MMP is a solid buy for potentially strong long-term gains.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，我认为 MMP 在当前 47 美元的价格下很有价值，收益率接近 9%，分销覆盖率为 1.17 倍。MMP 的交易价格也处于价值区域，EV/EBITDA 为 13.1，低于 2016-2020 年大流行前 15-22 的范围。MMP 是潜在强劲长期收益的可靠买入选择。</blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>Pick #3: Amgen</b></h3> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMGN\">Amgen</a> remains one of my favorite picks in the pharmaceutical sector. It’s been around since 1980, and today, is one of the largest biopharmaceutical companies in the world. Amgen’s therapies reach millions of patients in 100 countries, and is focused on the six therapeutic areas of cardiovascular, inflammation, neuroscience, oncology, bone health, and nephrology.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>选择#3：安进</b></h3><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMGN\">安进</a>仍然是我在制药行业最喜欢的选择之一。该公司自 1980 年成立以来，一直是世界上最大的生物制药公司之一。安进的疗法覆盖了 100 个国家的数百万患者，重点关注心血管、炎症、神经科学、肿瘤学、骨骼健康和肾脏病六个治疗领域。</blockquote></p><p> AMGN has sold off after its Q2 earnings release. As seen below, at the current price of $227.96, AMGN is now trading well below the $250 level that it reached back in July. It also has an RSI score of 33, indicating that it’s in oversold territory.</p><p><blockquote>AMGN 在第二季度财报发布后抛售。如下所示，AMGN 目前的价格为 227.96 美元，其交易价格远低于 7 月份达到的 250 美元水平。它的 RSI 得分也为 33，表明它处于超卖区域。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf2db10866aa63b02082d1691157f976\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> (Source: StockCharts)</p><p><blockquote>（来源：StockCharts）</blockquote></p><p> One of the reasons for the sell-off reaching is the lower earnings guidance of $9.37 (at the midpoint) that management is projecting for 2021. This sits 5% below management’s previous guidance of $9.91 at the midpoint. Meanwhile, adjusted EPS guidance remains unchanged from Q1’21 at $16.50 at the midpoint.</p><p><blockquote>抛售的原因之一是管理层预计 2021 年盈利指引较低，为 9.37 美元（中点）。这比管理层之前指导的中点 9.91 美元低 5%。与此同时，调整后每股收益指引与 21 年第一季度中点时的 16.50 美元不变。</blockquote></p><p> I see the sell-off as being an overreaction, considering the robust second quarter results that AMGN just posted, with revenue increasing by5%YoY to $6.5 billion. This was driven by strong volume growth and growth in AMGN’s newer drugs, Prolia and EVENITY (osteoporosis), and Repatha (cardiovascular diseases), which all posted double-digit YoY sales growth ranging from 24-43%.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到 AMGN 刚刚公布的强劲第二季度业绩，收入同比增长 5%，达到 65 亿美元，我认为此次抛售是一种过度反应。这得益于 AMGN 的新药 Prolia 和 EVENITY（骨质疏松症）以及 Repatha（心血管疾病）的强劲销量增长和增长，这两种药物的销售额同比增长均达到了 24-43% 不等。</blockquote></p><p> Looking forward, I’m encouraged by the launching of Lumakras, which is a first-in-class lung cancer treatment, and by AMGN’s burgeoning biosimilar practice, considering the higher margins associated with biosimilars compared to traditional generics. Plus, AMGN’s recently announced Teneobio acquisition is expected to close in the second half of this year, and should strengthen AMGN’s leadership in developing protein-based medicines to treat patients with serious illnesses.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，我对 Lumakras（一种一流的肺癌治疗药物）的上市以及 AMGN 蓬勃发展的生物仿制药业务感到鼓舞，因为与传统仿制药相比，生物仿制药的利润率更高。此外，AMGN 最近宣布收购 Teneobio 的交易预计将于今年下半年完成，这将加强 AMGN 在开发治疗严重疾病患者的蛋白质药物方面的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, AMGN remains one of the most shareholder-friendly companies, with a robust capital returns program. This is reflected by the 6.5 million shares that were repurchased during the second quarter alone for a total cost of $1.6 billion, and management is targeting $3-$5 billion in total repurchases this year. As seen below, AMGN’s total share count has been reduced by an impressive 23% over the past 5 years through share repurchases.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，AMGN 仍然是对股东最友好的公司之一，拥有强大的资本回报计划。仅在第二季度就回购了 650 万股股票，总成本为 16 亿美元，管理层的目标是今年的总回购金额为 3-50 亿美元。如下图所示，在过去 5 年中，通过股票回购，AMGN 的股票总数减少了 23%，令人印象深刻。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d535b01b01381632c9bfd459adde574\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"223\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Seeking Alpha)</p><p><blockquote>（来源：Seeking Alpha）</blockquote></p><p> AMGN maintains a strong balance sheet, with $8.1 billion in cash and short-term investments on hand, and an A- credit rating from S&P. It has a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 1.99x, sitting well below the 3.0x safe level that I prefer. This lends support to the 3.1% dividend yield, which comes with a low payout ratio of 43%, and a robust 13% 5-year CAGR. As seen below, the current yield is sitting at one of the highest levels over the past 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>AMGN 保持着强劲的资产负债表，手头拥有 81 亿美元的现金和短期投资，并获得标准普尔的 A- 信用评级。它的净债务与 EBITDA 比率为 1.99 倍，远低于我喜欢的 3.0 倍安全水平。这为 3.1% 的股息收益率提供了支持，该收益率为 43%，5 年复合年增长率为 13%。如下所示，目前的收益率处于过去 10 年来的最高水平之一。</blockquote></p><p> Note: the following 2.95% dividend yield is based on trailing 12 months, and the forward yield is 3.1%.</p><p><blockquote>注：以下2.95%的股息收益率基于过去12个月，远期收益率为3.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9b2e61be687209c9b9b7cf8ee9c05fb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> (Source: YCharts)</p><p><blockquote>（来源：YCharts）</blockquote></p><p></p><p> While AMGN comes with risks from patent cliffs, I see the company as being able to manage through these risks with its robust pipeline and knowledge platform from prior and existing drugs, which it can use to develop successor drugs. I see value in AMGN at the current price of $227.96, with a forward PE of 13.8, and analysts have consensus price target of $248. This implies a potential 12% 1-year return including dividends, which isn’t bad for a blue-chip in an overall frothy market. AMGN is a Buy.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 AMGN 面临着专利悬崖带来的风险，但我认为该公司能够通过其强大的现有药物管道和知识平台来管理这些风险，并可用于开发后续药物。我认为 AMGN 目前的价格为 227.96 美元，远期市盈率为 13.8，分析师一致目标价为 248 美元。这意味着包括股息在内的 1 年回报率可能达到 12%，这对于在整体泡沫市场中的蓝筹股来说已经不错了。AMGN 值得买入。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448070-omega-healthcare-magellan-amgen-3-great-dividends-you-may-kick-yourself-for-not-buying-now\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"OHI":"Omega Healthcare Investors","AMGN":"安进"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448070-omega-healthcare-magellan-amgen-3-great-dividends-you-may-kick-yourself-for-not-buying-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169921344","content_text":"Summary\n\nQuality dividend-paying companies can be found in both bull and bear markets alike.\nIn this article, I highlight 3 stocks from vastly different industries that sport yields up to 9%.\nAll 3 companies have durable and economically-essential business models.\n\nThere’s nothing like a diversified basket of quality dividend-paying companies that are strong on their own, and form a formidable force together. That’s because no matter how strong any individual company may be, it’s always important to diversify, diversify, diversify.\nIn this article, I present 3 strong dividend stocks that have weathered at least 2 recessions with their dividends intact and have strong growth prospects ahead. They come from vastly different, yet economically essential industries, thereby making their yields durable in their own right, so let’s get started.\nPick #1: Omega Healthcare Investors\nOmega Healthcare Investors is the largest publicly-traded REIT that’s focused primarily on skilled nursing facilities. At present, it owns over 900 properties spread across the U.S. and U.K. that are managed by 69 different operators.\nIt’s worth mentioning that OHI has undergone 2 recessions without having to cut its dividend, and actually raised its dividend in 2008, during the Great Recession, when many REITs were forced to cut theirs. Much of this has to do with OHI’s durable triple-net lease model, in which the tenant is responsible for property taxes, maintenance, and insurance. There’s beauty in this model, as it results in a far lower operating cost structure than non-net lease counterparts.\nThis has helped OHI to avoid many of the issues that have plagued healthcare REIT peers Ventas (VTR) and Welltower (WELL), which have seniors housing operating assets that expose them to tenant risk, and were forced to cut their dividends last year. There’s also something to be said about the durability of the government pay model versus private pay, as it’s hard to imagine the government abandoning seniors who require post-surgery rehabilitation.\nWhile the skilled nursing sector has been challenged by the pandemic with lower occupancy, HHS (Health and Human Services) funds have helped buffer the blow to OHI’s tenants. This is reflected by tenant EBITDAR-to-rent coverage of 1.44x for the 12 months ended March 31, 2021 (tenant coverage metrics are reported 1 quarter in arrears), comparing favorably to the 1.32x coverage ratio in the prior-year period.\nIn June, an operator representing 3% of OHI’s rent notified management of their inability to pay, due to wage inflation and occupancy issues. This is perhaps one of the factors that drove OHI’s share price down since the recent earnings release. While this is worth monitoring, this also isn’t management’s first rodeo, and I believe the company will be able to work through this, as they have in the past. Operators may come and go, but the properties still serve a critical need.\nLooking forward, OHI should benefit from the so-called ‘silver tsunami’, as the baby boom generation is just starting to hit the age at which SNF services are needed. Meanwhile, I see value in OHI at the current price of $34.89, with a forward P/FFO of just 10.5. It carries an RSI score of 39, which indicates that it’s approaching oversold territory.\nIt also pays an attractive well-covered 7.7% dividend yield with a dividend-to-AFFO payout ratio of 79%. This is supported by a strong balance sheet, with a net debt to annualized EBITDA of just4.9x. OHI provides solid value, especially compared to healthcare REIT peers Ventas and Welltower, which are trading at forward P/FFO of 20 and 27, respectively.\nPick #2: Magellan Midstream Partners\nMagellan Midstream Partners LP (issues Schedule K-1) is a well-known and respected MLP that primarily transports, stores, and distributes refined petroleum products and crude oil. It owns the longest refined petroleum products pipeline system in the U.S., and has access to nearly half of the country’s refining capacity, with storage capacity of 100 million barrels.\nThis has helped earn MMP a Wide-moat rating from Morningstar. Plus, Morningstar has assigned MMP an Exemplary rating for capital allocation, considering the strategic nature of MMP’s assets and that it hasn’t grown just for growth’s sake. This rating is also due to MMP’s prudently managed balance sheet, with a net debt to EBITDA ratio of just 3.3x, which sits at the low end compared to peers. The low leverage gives MMP plenty of capacity to buy back its units at attractive valuations, which it has done during the second quarter, with $82 million worth of unit repurchases.\nMMP’s toll-road like business model has made it relatively immune to the fluctuations in oil prices over the past 15 months. Plus, the stable demand forecast makes it such that there is little to no incentive to build new pipelines, thereby making MMP’s existing assets all the more valuable to its upstream customers. In their latest analyst report, Morningstar bakes in a worst-case scenario, and had this to say about the durability of MMP’s return on invested capital:\n\n Even if we assume refined product pricing declines by 50% - an extremely unlikely scenario, given that pricing generally only moves a few percentage points annually - Magellan's ROICs are around 11% (versus 13% in our base case), demonstrating the strength of the business. ROICs are also supported by strong capital allocation as well as the elimination of its incentive distribution rights in 2010, which lowered its cost of capital.\n\nWhile long-term risks from energy evolution exist for MMP, it will take time, giving MMP plenty of time to buy back shares, and explore other investment areas and use cases for its pipelines, including hydrogen, RNG, and carbon capture, to name a few.\nMeanwhile, I see value in MMP at the current price of $47 with a nearly 9% yield and a1.17xdistribution coverage ratio. MMP is also trading in value territory with an EV/EBITDA of 13.1, sitting below its pre-pandemic range of 15-22 in the years 2016-2020. MMP is a solid buy for potentially strong long-term gains.\nPick #3: Amgen\nAmgen remains one of my favorite picks in the pharmaceutical sector. It’s been around since 1980, and today, is one of the largest biopharmaceutical companies in the world. Amgen’s therapies reach millions of patients in 100 countries, and is focused on the six therapeutic areas of cardiovascular, inflammation, neuroscience, oncology, bone health, and nephrology.\nAMGN has sold off after its Q2 earnings release. As seen below, at the current price of $227.96, AMGN is now trading well below the $250 level that it reached back in July. It also has an RSI score of 33, indicating that it’s in oversold territory.\n\n(Source: StockCharts)\nOne of the reasons for the sell-off reaching is the lower earnings guidance of $9.37 (at the midpoint) that management is projecting for 2021. This sits 5% below management’s previous guidance of $9.91 at the midpoint. Meanwhile, adjusted EPS guidance remains unchanged from Q1’21 at $16.50 at the midpoint.\nI see the sell-off as being an overreaction, considering the robust second quarter results that AMGN just posted, with revenue increasing by5%YoY to $6.5 billion. This was driven by strong volume growth and growth in AMGN’s newer drugs, Prolia and EVENITY (osteoporosis), and Repatha (cardiovascular diseases), which all posted double-digit YoY sales growth ranging from 24-43%.\nLooking forward, I’m encouraged by the launching of Lumakras, which is a first-in-class lung cancer treatment, and by AMGN’s burgeoning biosimilar practice, considering the higher margins associated with biosimilars compared to traditional generics. Plus, AMGN’s recently announced Teneobio acquisition is expected to close in the second half of this year, and should strengthen AMGN’s leadership in developing protein-based medicines to treat patients with serious illnesses.\nMeanwhile, AMGN remains one of the most shareholder-friendly companies, with a robust capital returns program. This is reflected by the 6.5 million shares that were repurchased during the second quarter alone for a total cost of $1.6 billion, and management is targeting $3-$5 billion in total repurchases this year. As seen below, AMGN’s total share count has been reduced by an impressive 23% over the past 5 years through share repurchases.\n(Source: Seeking Alpha)\nAMGN maintains a strong balance sheet, with $8.1 billion in cash and short-term investments on hand, and an A- credit rating from S&P. It has a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 1.99x, sitting well below the 3.0x safe level that I prefer. This lends support to the 3.1% dividend yield, which comes with a low payout ratio of 43%, and a robust 13% 5-year CAGR. As seen below, the current yield is sitting at one of the highest levels over the past 10 years.\nNote: the following 2.95% dividend yield is based on trailing 12 months, and the forward yield is 3.1%.\n\n(Source: YCharts)\nWhile AMGN comes with risks from patent cliffs, I see the company as being able to manage through these risks with its robust pipeline and knowledge platform from prior and existing drugs, which it can use to develop successor drugs. I see value in AMGN at the current price of $227.96, with a forward PE of 13.8, and analysts have consensus price target of $248. This implies a potential 12% 1-year return including dividends, which isn’t bad for a blue-chip in an overall frothy market. AMGN is a Buy.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"OHI":0.9,"AMGN":0.9,"MMP":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3652,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/895883874"}
精彩评论