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2021-08-10

Will drop soon

Moderna Is A Winner In COVID-19 Vaccines, But What's Next?<blockquote>Moderna是新冠肺炎疫苗的赢家，但下一步是什么？</blockquote>

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At the same time, Novavax surprised the market with its delay in filing for emergency use authorization ((EUA)) with the US government ((USG)).<blockquote>现代（MRNA）和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">诺瓦瓦克斯</a>（NVAX）发布了各自的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTWO\">第二季度</a>收入<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>随着 COVID-19 疫苗产量的增加，Moderna 表示其 mRNA 疫苗项目取得了令人鼓舞的进展。与此同时，Novavax 推迟向美国政府 ((USG)) 申请紧急使用授权 ((EUA))，令市场感到意外。</blockquote> Moderna has continued to make excellent momentum as the company took full advantage of a highly successful COVID-19 vaccine program to develop the other vaccines in other therapeutic areas to future-proof its revenue sustainability, as the world gradually moves on to a world where COVID-19 is endemic.<blockquote>随着世界逐渐走向新冠肺炎流行的世界，Moderna 充分利用非常成功的 COVID-19 疫苗计划，在其他治疗领域开发其他疫苗，以确保其收入可持续性，从而继续取得良好的发展势头。</blockquote> This article provides a timely update for our readers to decide whether Moderna is still a good investment given the recent run-up that we think has resulted in a high amount of optimism being baked into its price.<blockquote>本文为我们的读者提供了及时的更新，以决定 Moderna 是否仍然是一项不错的投资，因为我们认为最近的上涨导致其价格出现了大量的乐观情绪。</blockquote> Q2 Earnings Recap<blockquote>第二季度收益回顾</blockquote> Moderna quarterly revenue surprise. Source: Seeking Alpha Premium<blockquote>Moderna 季度收入惊喜。资料来源：Seeking Alpha Premium</blockquote> Moderna quarterly EPS surprise. Source: Seeking Alpha Premium<blockquote>Moderna 季度每股收益惊喜。资料来源：Seeking Alpha Premium</blockquote> Moderna reported a solid Q2 report card, keeping in line with the momentum from Q1, as the company posted revenue of $4.354B and EPS of $6.46, which were 10.3% and 2.8% above the consensus estimates.<blockquote>Moderna 公布了一份稳健的第二季度成绩单，与第一季度的势头保持一致，该公司公布的收入为 $4.354B，每股收益为 $6.46，分别比市场普遍预期高出 10.3% 和 2.8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/727827b49e82cf15b729bc1d2efd38fa\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Moderna H1'21 revenue and FY21 consensus estimate. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>Moderna H1’21收入和21财年共识估计。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</blockquote> Importantly, Moderna posted a highly impressive QoQ increase of 125% in revenue from $1.94B in Q1'21 to $4.35B in Q2'21. However, Moderna would need to significantly ramp up in H2'21 for the company to meet the Street's FY21 estimates as H1'21's revenue of $6.29B accounted for only 31.2% of the FY21 consensus estimates.<blockquote>重要的是，Moderna 的收入环比增长了 125%，从 21 年第一季度的 $1.94B 增至 21 年第二季度的 $4.35B，令人印象深刻。然而，Moderna 需要在 2021 年下半年大幅增长才能达到华尔街对 2021 财年的预期，因为 2021 年上半年 6.29B 美元的收入仅占 2021 财年共识预期的 31.2%。</blockquote> To that, Moderna has assured investors that based on the company's signed advanced purchase agreements ((APA)) for FY21, Moderna indicated that \"expected delivery in 2021reflect the current full-year total of approximately $20 billion in anticipated product sales.\" The company continues to anticipate a supply of at least 800M to 1B doses for 2021.<blockquote>为此，Moderna 向投资者保证，根据该公司签署的 2021 财年预购协议 ((APA))，Moderna 表示，“预计 2021 年交付量反映了当前全年约 200 亿美元的预期产品销售总额。”该公司继续预计 2021 年将供应至少 8 亿至 1B 剂。</blockquote> Studying Moderna's Gross Margins and Pricing Strategy<blockquote>研究Moderna的毛利率和定价策略</blockquote> Moderna quarterly gross margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>现代季度毛利率。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</blockquote> The production ramp in Q2'21 has also improved Moderna's economies of scale as its gross margin improved markedly in Q2'21, as Moderna's total cost of revenue represents about 26.9% of Q2'21 revenue.<blockquote>21 年第二季度的产量增加也改善了 Moderna 的规模经济，因为其毛利率在 21 年第二季度显着提高，因为 Moderna 的总收入成本约占 21 年第二季度收入的 26.9%。</blockquote> Crucially, Moderna has indicated that its COVID-19H1'21's product salesof $5.93B which constitute about 94.3% of H1'21's total revenue, has a much lower cost of revenue. Based on our findings, Moderna's COVID-19 product sales have a cost of revenue of $1.1B, representing about 18.5% of H1'21's COVID-19 product revenue, therefore indicating that the average gross margin for its COVID-19 product is about 81.5%. The company has also emphasized that it \"expects the average cost total of sales as a percent of product sales to be between 18% and 20% compared to our previous outlook of approximately 20% of product sales. This reflects the successful ramp-up of this global manufacturing network.\"<blockquote>至关重要的是，Moderna 表示，其 COVID-19 H1’21 的产品销售额为 59.3 亿美元，约占 H1’21 总收入的 94.3%，收入成本要低得多。根据我们的调查结果，Moderna 的 COVID-19 产品销售的收入成本为 $1.1B，约占 H1’21 COVID-19 产品收入的 18.5%，因此表明其 COVID-19 产品的平均毛利率约为 81.5%。该公司还强调，“预计销售总成本占产品销售额的百分比将在 18% 至 20% 之间，而我们之前的预期约为产品销售额的 20%。这反映了这一全球制造网络的成功扩张。”</blockquote> Since Moderna delivered 199M doses in Q2'21 and 102M doses in Q1'21, the company delivered a collective amount of 301M doses in H1'21 that was recognized as product revenue. Given that our cost of revenue is about $1.1B for H1'21, we could thus derive an average cost per dose of about $3.65, which the company has highlighted that it expects to maintain for the rest of 2021.<blockquote>由于 Moderna 在 21 年第二季度交付了 1.9 亿剂疫苗，在 21 年第一季度交付了 1.02 亿剂疫苗，因此该公司在 21 年上半年交付了 3.01 亿剂疫苗，确认为产品收入。鉴于我们 H1'21 的收入成本约为 $1.1B，因此我们可以得出每剂的平均成本约为 $3.65，该公司强调预计将在 2021 年剩余时间内保持这一水平。</blockquote> Before we carry on, Moderna has highlighted that the cost of sales that the company reflected in H1'21 of $943M included their \"zero-cost COVID-19 inventory,\" as the company emphasized: \"At the end of the first quarter of 2021, we had substantially utilized our zero-cost COVID-19 vaccine inventory. Therefore, if inventory sold for the six months ended June 30, 2021, were valued at cost, our cost of sales for the period would have been $1.1 billion.\" Therefore, based on our computation above, we believe it's important to reflect the cost of sales more accurately, which the company also corroborates in their earnings call.<blockquote>在我们继续之前，Moderna 强调，该公司在 H1’21 中反映的 9.43 亿美元销售成本包括他们的 “零成本 COVID-19 库存”，正如该公司所强调的那样： “截至 2021 年第一季度末，我们已基本使用了零成本 COVID-19 疫苗库存。因此，如果截至 2021 年 6 月 30 日的六个月销售库存按成本估值，我们该期间的销售成本将为 11 亿美元。”因此，基于我们上面的计算，我们认为更准确地反映销售成本非常重要，公司也在其盈利看涨期权中证实了这一点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28b81eba2e15387ebf431cce2b895aba\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Moderna Spikevax pricing tiers. Data source: Moderna<blockquote>现代Spikevax定价等级。数据来源：Moderna</blockquote> Moderna adopts a tiered pricing model to distribute its vaccines equitably. For the USG, the company has applied a \"favorable\" pricing model because of the US government's funding as well as the 500M doses order that the USG committed to Moderna, which the company emphasized, \"is very large.\"<blockquote>Moderna采用分级定价模式来公平分配其疫苗。对于 USG，该公司采用了“有利”的定价模式，因为美国政府的资助以及 USG 向 Moderna 承诺的 5 亿剂订单，该公司强调该订单“非常大”。</blockquote> The other higher-income countries paid between $32 and $37, including larger orders from countries that include the EU with an APA of260M dosesfor 2021. Thus, applying Moderna's large contract discount logic, we should expect the average EU pricing to be at the lower end of the $32 to $37 range.<blockquote>其他高收入国家支付了 32 至 37 美元，其中包括来自包括欧盟在内的国家的更大订单，2021 年 APA 为 2.6 亿剂。因此，应用 Moderna 的大合同折扣逻辑，我们应该预计欧盟平均价格将处于 32 至 37 美元范围的低端。</blockquote> For the lower to middle-income countries, even though the company did not explicitly disclose the exact price range, the company highlighted that this category \"received the lowest-tiered pricing, including those sales to COVAX, which are considerably lower than the price to the U.S. government.\"<blockquote>对于中低收入国家，尽管该公司没有明确披露确切的价格范围，但该公司强调，这一类别“获得了最低等级的定价，包括向 COVAX 销售的产品，这些产品远低于美国政府的价格。”</blockquote> For Moderna, we could easily derive its average price at about $19.7 ($5.93B/301M) per dose for H1'21, even though the company has emphasized that it's likely to be reduced moving into 2022 as they ramp the production for delivery to COVAX as well as the lower and middle-income countries, especially since the COVAX APA is set to increase from 34M doses in 2021 to 117M doses in 2022, with an option to increase up to 350M doses.<blockquote>对于 Moderna，我们可以很容易地得出其 2021 年上半年每剂约 19.7 美元（59.3 亿美元/3.01 亿美元）的平均价格，尽管该公司强调，随着他们提高产量向 COVAX 以及中低收入国家交付，该价格可能会降低，特别是因为 COVAX APA 将从 2021 年的 3400 万剂增加到 2022 年的 1.17 亿剂，并可选择增加最多 3.5 亿剂。</blockquote> COVAX reported an average price of about$5.20 per dose; thus, it would be useful for investors to continue monitoring the impact on the average price for mRNA-1273 moving forward. Moderna has also indicated that it is expecting more price competition as we move from a pandemic towards a world where COVID-19 is endemic. In addition, it may also be useful to watch closely for further improvement in its economies of scale as the company ramps production from an estimated 800M to 1B doses in 2021 to 2B to 3B doses in 2022.<blockquote>COVAX报告的平均价格约为每剂5.20美元；因此，投资者继续监测未来对 mRNA-1273 平均价格的影响将是有用的。Moderna还表示，随着我们从疫情走向新冠肺炎流行的世界，它预计会有更多的价格竞争。此外，随着该公司将产量从 2021 年的预计 8 亿至 1B 剂量提高到 2022 年的 2B 至 3B 剂量，密切关注其规模经济的进一步改善也可能是有用的。</blockquote> Moderna's Strategy Moving <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FORD\">Forward</a><blockquote>Moderna 的战略正在转变<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FORD\">向前</a></blockquote> Share of the population fully vaccinated against COVID-19. Source: OWID<blockquote>完全接种新冠肺炎疫苗的人口比例。资料来源：OWID</blockquote> It's straightforward that Moderna has ramped production significantly to compete for the next phase in COVID-19 distribution for its mRNA-1273 product for countries within the COVAX category in 2022 and 2023 as the high-income countries are starting to approach the 60% to 70% fully vaccinated mark. However, we could clearly glean from the chart above where only 15% of the total world population has been fully vaccinated, while countries like Indonesia and India have only 8% and 7.8% of their population fully inoculated, and South America's 20.9% still has a long way to go as well.<blockquote>很明显，随着高收入国家开始接近 60% 至 70% 的完全接种率，Moderna 已大幅提高产量，以竞争 2022 年和 2023 年 COVAX 类别国家 mRNA-1273 产品的下一阶段 COVID-19 分销。然而，我们可以从上图中清楚地了解到，只有15%的世界总人口接种了疫苗，而印度尼西亚和印度等国家只有8%和7.8%的人口接种了疫苗，南美洲的20.9%也还有很长的路要走。</blockquote> Moving forward, the strategy for the high-income countries is starting to move towards booster shots. We think this is where Moderna, as one of the 2 mRNA vaccines makers, has sufficiently proven its worth against <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>-BioNTech as the company's recent COVE study demonstrated that mRNA-1273 could maintain the efficacy of 93.2%, 4 to 6 months after the second dose, and a 98.2% efficacy against severe disease, as well as a 100% efficacy against death caused by COVID-19. As compared to Pfizer-BioNTech's vaccine, where the efficacy is expected to drop to84%after 6 months, we would clearly applaud the breathtaking results that clearly demonstrate the superiority of Moderna's Spikevax against Comirnaty.<blockquote>展望未来，高收入国家的战略开始转向加强注射。我们认为这就是 Moderna 作为两家 mRNA 疫苗制造商之一，已经充分证明其价值的地方。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>-BioNTech作为该公司最近的COVE研究表明，mRNA-1273在第二剂后4至6个月可以维持93.2%的疗效，对重症有98.2%的疗效，以及对COVID-19导致的死亡有100%的疗效。与辉瑞-BioNTech的疫苗相比，预计6个月后有效率将降至84%，我们显然会为令人惊叹的结果鼓掌，这些结果清楚地证明了Moderna的Spikevax对抗Comirnaty的优越性。</blockquote> To this Moderna Co-founder and Chairman Dr. Noubar Afeyan clearly articulated who he thinks owns the superior mRNA technology for COVID-19 vaccine in the market (shout-out to Pfizer-BioNTech folks):<blockquote>Moderna 联合创始人兼董事长 Noubar Afeyan 博士清楚地阐述了他认为谁拥有市场上 COVID-19 疫苗的卓越 mRNA 技术（向辉瑞-BioNTech 的人们大声喊出来）：</blockquote> We set outto develop the most effective vaccine against this virus that would last for the longest possible time, [helping] the largest number of people to be safe...And this is the first time we had data that at least showed that six months after the initial vaccinations were seeing essentially the same level of protection, which is very encouraging. Moderna also emphasized that we should never underestimate the efficacy differences as just plain numbers, which in Moderna's and Pfizer-BioNTech's case amounted to 9.2% points. The company emphasized that:<blockquote>我们着手开发针对这种病毒的最有效疫苗，这种疫苗将持续尽可能长的时间，【帮助】尽可能多的人安全……这是我们第一次有数据至少显示，在最初接种疫苗六个月后，我们看到了基本相同水平的保护，这是非常令人鼓舞的。Moderna 还强调，我们永远不应该将疗效差异低估为简单的数字，在 Moderna 和辉瑞-BioNTech 的案例中，疗效差异达到 9.2 个百分点。该公司强调：</blockquote> The relative strength of the different vaccines suggested that small differences in efficacy would start to emerge to be larger differences in efficacy at about 200, 250 days as neutralizing antibody titers waned. And that may be what we're starting to see. And if you play that forward, if you assume [Professor Davenport of the University of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NGD\">New</a> South Wales, Australia] been right about those predictions, then that picture continues and continues through a year with continued declining neutralizing antibody titers over that time. And eventually, we therefore believe, a real increase in breakthrough infections and disease even with vaccinated participants, even with mRNA-1273. Moderna has also presented clear findings where it expects that a booster shot would significantly increase the neutralizing titers. In contrast, without the booster, for test subjects 6 to 8 months after their second dose, the neutralizing titers have dropped so significantly that for the Beta, Gamma and Delta variants, the \"neutralizing titers had fallen below the detectable -- the level of detection of the assay for a decent number of participants in all 4 -- all 3 cases.\"<blockquote>不同疫苗的相对强度表明，随着中和抗体滴度的减弱，效力的小差异将在约200、250天时开始出现较大的效力差异。这可能是我们开始看到的。如果你玩前锋，如果你假设[达文波特大学的教授<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NGD\">新的</a>澳大利亚南威尔士]的这些预测是正确的，然后这种情况持续了一年，在此期间中和抗体滴度持续下降。因此，我们认为，最终，即使是接种疫苗的参与者，即使是mRNA-1273，突破性感染和疾病也会真正增加。Moderna 还提出了明确的发现，预计加强注射将显着增加中和滴度。相比之下，在没有加强剂的情况下，对于第二次给药后 6 至 8 个月的测试受试者，中和滴度显著下降，以至于对于 Beta、Gamma 和 Delta 变体，“中和滴度已降至可检测水平以下——所有 3 例病例中相当数量的参与者的检测水平。”</blockquote> As a result, we expect Moderna has strongly assembled the case for a booster with strong evidence suggesting their importance to protect against the new potential variants that may emerge, which Moderna has certainly warned: \"...It seems logical to us that those 3 mutations present in the Beta, Gamma line and those 2 mutations present in the Delta might find some way to combine in new and potentially scary ways. And if that came with the increased transmissibility, [the] force of infection that Delta can achieve, that might be a significant threat. And so we view our multivalent platform as the best place for us to try and anticipate that threat.\"<blockquote>因此，我们预计Moderna已经有力地收集了加强剂的案例，有强有力的证据表明它们在防止可能出现的新的潜在变异方面的重要性，Moderna当然已经警告过这一点：“...在我们看来，β线、γ线中存在的3个突变和δ线中存在的2个突变可能会找到某种方式以新的和潜在的可怕的方式结合起来，这是合乎逻辑的。如果这伴随着传播性的增加，Delta可以实现的传染性，这可能是一个重大威胁。因此，我们将我们的多价平台视为我们尝试和预测这种威胁的最佳场所。”</blockquote> The company is developing a \"proactive\" multivalent platform where it combines \"different variants into a single vaccine\" as its strategy to combat potential variants that are expected to emerge. Based on the company's assays study, this platform clearly outperformed the other candidates in its study. In addition, it stood out as a strong candidate to be used as a booster option, even though the primary mRNA-1273 candidate can also be used effectively as a booster.<blockquote>该公司正在开发一个“主动”多价平台，将“不同的变体组合成单一疫苗”，作为其对抗预计出现的潜在变体的策略。根据该公司的化验研究，该平台在其研究中的表现明显优于其他候选平台。此外，尽管初级mRNA-1273候选物也可以有效地用作加强剂，但它仍然是用作加强剂的有力候选物。</blockquote> However, in a fast-evolving situation with COVID-19, we think having more efficacious options are only going to be beneficial as vaccine makers try to anticipate and are proactive against potential new and more potent antigens where Moderna even admitted that the Delta variant had humbled them, as it added: \"I think the Delta variant has taught us to also be incredibly humble in the face of the virus' ability to fight back and increase its transmission. I mean, I think most of us would have thought SARS-CoV-2 was a pretty good infector earlier this year. Delta has shown us that it can make huge steps forward.\"<blockquote>然而，在 COVID-19 快速发展的形势下，我们认为拥有更有效的选择只会是有益的，因为疫苗制造商试图预测并积极主动地对抗潜在的新的、更有效的抗原，Moderna 甚至承认德尔塔变异毒株让他们感到谦卑，正如它补充的那样： “我认为德尔塔变异毒株教会了我们，面对病毒的反击和传播能力，我们也要保持令人难以置信的谦逊。我的意思是，我想我们大多数人在今年早些时候都会认为 SARS-CoV-2 是一种相当不错的感染者。Delta 向我们展示了它可以向前迈出巨大的步伐。”</blockquote> Risks to our Thesis<blockquote>我们论文的风险</blockquote> By now, it should be clear that 2022 is promising to be a year where Moderna would almost double or triple its supply to 2B or 3B doses, depending on whether the company is using 100 micrograms or 50 micrograms in its product moving forward. Pfizer-BioNTech is also expected to increase its capacity to 3B doses in 2022, while we also need to take into account Novavax's impending entry into the COVID-19 vaccines production game, as well as the Chinese vaccine makers who already have an annual capacity of 5B doses.<blockquote>到目前为止，应该很清楚，2022 年有望成为 Moderna 将其 2B 或 3B 剂量供应量几乎翻一番或三倍的一年，具体取决于该公司未来在其产品中使用的是 100 微克还是 50 微克。辉瑞-BioNTech预计也将在2022年将其产能提高到3B剂量，同时我们还需要考虑到Novavax即将进入新冠肺炎疫苗生产游戏，以及已经拥有5B剂量年产能的中国疫苗制造商。</blockquote> We think there is a realistic chance where Moderna may be facing an over-supply situation even though it may have proven itself to be the superior mRNA vaccine for now against Pfizer-BioNTech.<blockquote>我们认为，Moderna 可能面临供应过剩的情况，尽管它可能已经证明自己是目前针对辉瑞-BioNTech 的优质 mRNA 疫苗。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b54cee9edb8e398275290f3edcdb770\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Revenue forecast mean consensus. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>收入预测意味着共识。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</blockquote> Therefore, we think the Street has prudently lowered its revenue estimates for Moderna over the next few years. The company is also likely to come under pricing pressure against the huge supply expected to come online.<blockquote>因此，我们认为华尔街已谨慎地降低了对 Moderna 未来几年的收入预期。由于预计上线的大量供应量，该公司也可能面临定价压力。</blockquote> However, we think Moderna is keenly aware of it. The company clearly highlighted that they had made good progress in the other 5 therapeutic areas that the company is involved in. Of notable mention is the fast track designation the company recently received from the US FDA for the company'sRSV vaccine candidate, mRNA-1345, especially when there is no approved RSV vaccine yet in the market.<blockquote>然而，我们认为Moderna敏锐地意识到了这一点。该公司明确强调，他们在公司涉足的其他5个治疗领域取得了良好进展。值得一提的是，该公司最近从美国FDA获得了该公司sRSV候选疫苗mRNA-1345的快速通道认证，特别是当市场上还没有批准的RSV疫苗时。</blockquote> In addition, the company has also commenced on the Phase I/II study of its mRNA-1010 quadrivalent seasonal flu vaccine to target the seasonal flu market, where it's worth about $5B to $6B annually, according to Moderna's estimates, especially when the current flu vaccine efficacy is between 40% and 60% according toCDC data. Moderna expects its quadrivalent vaccine to be launched as early as 2023.<blockquote>此外，该公司还开始了针对季节性流感市场的 mRNA-1010 四价季节性流感疫苗的 I/II 期研究，根据 Moderna 的估计，该疫苗每年的价值约为 5B 至 6B 美元，特别是根据 CDC 数据，目前的流感疫苗功效在 40% 至 60% 之间。Moderna 预计其四价疫苗最早将于 2023 年推出。</blockquote> Moderna is also expecting good results from its CMV vaccine, which is expected to be entering Phase III trials soon. It would also allow the company to tap into a market worth between $2B and $5B annually.<blockquote>Moderna也期待其CMV疫苗取得良好效果，预计很快将进入III期试验。它还将允许该公司每年挖掘 20 亿美元至 50 亿美元的市场价值。</blockquote> Hence, we think that the company has been proactively working on the success of its mRNA-1273 to progress confidently along the other programs to sustain its commercial success beyond just being a COVID-19 vaccine maker. Therefore, we encourage investors to monitor its most advanced programs closely and keep pace with them moving forward.<blockquote>因此，我们认为该公司一直在积极致力于其mRNA-1273的成功，以自信地推进其他项目，以维持其商业成功，而不仅仅是一家新冠肺炎疫苗制造商。因此，我们鼓励投资者密切关注其最先进的项目，并跟上其发展步伐。</blockquote> Valuations<blockquote>估值</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69cb54a8282012f6cff4095f28e2a08f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"176\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Biotech peers valuation comp set. Source: TIKR<blockquote>生物技术同行估值补偿集。资料来源：TIKR</blockquote> EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>EV/Fwd 转速趋势。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</blockquote> Moderna is currently trading at an EV / Fwd Rev of about 8x, which interestingly comes in below its peers' mean multiple of 14.14x, where Moderna may look to be attractively valued. However, this assumes that Moderna can keep increasing its revenue strongly over the next few years, a point that we have raised previously may face significant headwinds ahead.<blockquote>Moderna 目前的电动汽车/前轮驱动转速约为 8 倍，有趣的是，低于同行 14.14 倍的平均倍数，而 Moderna 的估值可能很有吸引力。然而，这是假设 Moderna 可以在未来几年继续强劲增加收入，我们之前提出的这一点可能会在未来面临重大阻力。</blockquote> Importantly, we could see that based on the company's expected revenue moving forward, the company is not likely to see meaningful progress on its capital appreciation potential moving forward as its revenue multiple by the end of FY25 is expected to be about 14.6x, which is in line with the peers' mean multiple right now.<blockquote>重要的是，我们可以看到，根据该公司未来的预期收入，该公司未来的资本增值潜力不太可能取得有意义的进展，因为其到 2025 财年末的收入倍数预计约为 14.6 倍，这与目前同行的平均倍数一致。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4cc567a1361ba17617927c47a803418\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"476\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Street's mean price target. Source: TIKR<blockquote>Street 的平均价格目标。资料来源：TIKR</blockquote> Moreover, the Street is also not optimistic on MRNA making meaningful headway from here, and in fact, values the stock at about a 5.2x implied EV / Fwd Rev multiple, at a 35% discount from the last closing price. Analysts from <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OPY\">Oppenheimer</a> also emphasized that \"MRNA sharesare fairly pricing a tremendous amount of future recurring revenues and pipeline progress...[arguing] that the company’s non-COVID pipeline remains 2-3 years away from reaching commercial success.\"<blockquote>此外，华尔街也不看好 MRNA 从这里取得有意义的进展，事实上，该股的估值约为隐含 EV / Fwd Rev 倍数的 5.2 倍，较上次收盘价折扣 35%。分析师来自<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OPY\">奥本海默</a>他还强调，“MRNA 股票对未来大量的经常性收入和产品线进展进行了公平的定价......[认为]该公司的非 COVID 产品线距离取得商业成功还有 2-3 年的时间”。</blockquote> Our opinion is in line with the Street, and we think that a lot of optimism is currently being priced into Moderna at the moment. So we think if investors are sitting on decent profits right now, we strongly encourage you to at least take partial profits and take some risk off the table.<blockquote>我们的观点与华尔街一致，我们认为目前 Moderna 的价值观很大。因此，我们认为，如果投资者现在获得了可观的利润，我们强烈建议您至少获得部分利润并承担一些风险。</blockquote> Price Action and Trend Analysis<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/766a37b6357b74ea899bd0e823ff64a2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: TradingView<blockquote>价格行为和趋势分析来源：TradingView</blockquote> While we are clear about MRNA's long-term uptrend bias (which is why we don't recommend a short-sell strategy against stocks with clear uptrend bias), we also think the stock's price action has recently shown signs of a climax top pattern.<blockquote>虽然我们清楚 MRNA 的长期上升趋势偏见（这就是为什么我们不建议对具有明显上升趋势偏见的股票采取卖空策略），但我们也认为该股的价格走势最近显示出高潮顶部模式的迹象。</blockquote> However, it's impossible to speculate exactly where the top is. Therefore, we think it's prudent for investors to take some profits off the table and wait for the euphoria to chill and cool down before considering adding exposure to MRNA again.<blockquote>然而，不可能准确地推测顶部在哪里。因此，我们认为投资者谨慎的做法是将一些利润从桌面上移开，等待兴奋情绪冷却下来，然后再考虑再次增加 MRNA 的敞口。</blockquote> We have already taken the opportunity of the stock's recent strength to lock in 50% of our profit on MRNA, with a view of locking in even more if we continue to see price action that shows a higher climax top tendency moving forward.<blockquote>我们已经利用该股近期走强的机会锁定了 MRNA 50% 的利润，如果我们继续看到价格走势显示出更高的高潮顶部趋势，我们将锁定更多利润。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Moderna Is A Winner In COVID-19 Vaccines, But What's Next?<blockquote>Moderna是新冠肺炎疫苗的赢家，但下一步是什么？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nModerna Is A Winner In COVID-19 Vaccines, But What's Next?<blockquote>Moderna是新冠肺炎疫苗的赢家，但下一步是什么？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseeking alpha2021-08-10 14:59\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nInvestment Thesis<blockquote>投资论文</blockquote> Moderna (MRNA) and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">Novavax</a> (NVAX) released their respective <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTWO\">Q2</a> earnings <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> after the other, with Moderna indicating encouraging progress in its mRNA vaccine programs along with its COVID-19 vaccine production ramp. At the same time, Novavax surprised the market with its delay in filing for emergency use authorization ((EUA)) with the US government ((USG)).<blockquote>现代（MRNA）和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">诺瓦瓦克斯</a>（NVAX）发布了各自的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTWO\">第二季度</a>收入<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>随着 COVID-19 疫苗产量的增加，Moderna 表示其 mRNA 疫苗项目取得了令人鼓舞的进展。与此同时，Novavax 推迟向美国政府 ((USG)) 申请紧急使用授权 ((EUA))，令市场感到意外。</blockquote> Moderna has continued to make excellent momentum as the company took full advantage of a highly successful COVID-19 vaccine program to develop the other vaccines in other therapeutic areas to future-proof its revenue sustainability, as the world gradually moves on to a world where COVID-19 is endemic.<blockquote>随着世界逐渐走向新冠肺炎流行的世界，Moderna 充分利用非常成功的 COVID-19 疫苗计划，在其他治疗领域开发其他疫苗，以确保其收入可持续性，从而继续取得良好的发展势头。</blockquote> This article provides a timely update for our readers to decide whether Moderna is still a good investment given the recent run-up that we think has resulted in a high amount of optimism being baked into its price.<blockquote>本文为我们的读者提供了及时的更新，以决定 Moderna 是否仍然是一项不错的投资，因为我们认为最近的上涨导致其价格出现了大量的乐观情绪。</blockquote> Q2 Earnings Recap<blockquote>第二季度收益回顾</blockquote> Moderna quarterly revenue surprise. Source: Seeking Alpha Premium<blockquote>Moderna 季度收入惊喜。资料来源：Seeking Alpha Premium</blockquote> Moderna quarterly EPS surprise. Source: Seeking Alpha Premium<blockquote>Moderna 季度每股收益惊喜。资料来源：Seeking Alpha Premium</blockquote> Moderna reported a solid Q2 report card, keeping in line with the momentum from Q1, as the company posted revenue of $4.354B and EPS of $6.46, which were 10.3% and 2.8% above the consensus estimates.<blockquote>Moderna 公布了一份稳健的第二季度成绩单，与第一季度的势头保持一致，该公司公布的收入为 $4.354B，每股收益为 $6.46，分别比市场普遍预期高出 10.3% 和 2.8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/727827b49e82cf15b729bc1d2efd38fa\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Moderna H1'21 revenue and FY21 consensus estimate. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>Moderna H1’21收入和21财年共识估计。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</blockquote> Importantly, Moderna posted a highly impressive QoQ increase of 125% in revenue from $1.94B in Q1'21 to $4.35B in Q2'21. However, Moderna would need to significantly ramp up in H2'21 for the company to meet the Street's FY21 estimates as H1'21's revenue of $6.29B accounted for only 31.2% of the FY21 consensus estimates.<blockquote>重要的是，Moderna 的收入环比增长了 125%，从 21 年第一季度的 $1.94B 增至 21 年第二季度的 $4.35B，令人印象深刻。然而，Moderna 需要在 2021 年下半年大幅增长才能达到华尔街对 2021 财年的预期，因为 2021 年上半年 6.29B 美元的收入仅占 2021 财年共识预期的 31.2%。</blockquote> To that, Moderna has assured investors that based on the company's signed advanced purchase agreements ((APA)) for FY21, Moderna indicated that \"expected delivery in 2021reflect the current full-year total of approximately $20 billion in anticipated product sales.\" The company continues to anticipate a supply of at least 800M to 1B doses for 2021.<blockquote>为此，Moderna 向投资者保证，根据该公司签署的 2021 财年预购协议 ((APA))，Moderna 表示，“预计 2021 年交付量反映了当前全年约 200 亿美元的预期产品销售总额。”该公司继续预计 2021 年将供应至少 8 亿至 1B 剂。</blockquote> Studying Moderna's Gross Margins and Pricing Strategy<blockquote>研究Moderna的毛利率和定价策略</blockquote> Moderna quarterly gross margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>现代季度毛利率。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</blockquote> The production ramp in Q2'21 has also improved Moderna's economies of scale as its gross margin improved markedly in Q2'21, as Moderna's total cost of revenue represents about 26.9% of Q2'21 revenue.<blockquote>21 年第二季度的产量增加也改善了 Moderna 的规模经济，因为其毛利率在 21 年第二季度显着提高，因为 Moderna 的总收入成本约占 21 年第二季度收入的 26.9%。</blockquote> Crucially, Moderna has indicated that its COVID-19H1'21's product salesof $5.93B which constitute about 94.3% of H1'21's total revenue, has a much lower cost of revenue. Based on our findings, Moderna's COVID-19 product sales have a cost of revenue of $1.1B, representing about 18.5% of H1'21's COVID-19 product revenue, therefore indicating that the average gross margin for its COVID-19 product is about 81.5%. The company has also emphasized that it \"expects the average cost total of sales as a percent of product sales to be between 18% and 20% compared to our previous outlook of approximately 20% of product sales. This reflects the successful ramp-up of this global manufacturing network.\"<blockquote>至关重要的是，Moderna 表示，其 COVID-19 H1’21 的产品销售额为 59.3 亿美元，约占 H1’21 总收入的 94.3%，收入成本要低得多。根据我们的调查结果，Moderna 的 COVID-19 产品销售的收入成本为 $1.1B，约占 H1’21 COVID-19 产品收入的 18.5%，因此表明其 COVID-19 产品的平均毛利率约为 81.5%。该公司还强调，“预计销售总成本占产品销售额的百分比将在 18% 至 20% 之间，而我们之前的预期约为产品销售额的 20%。这反映了这一全球制造网络的成功扩张。”</blockquote> Since Moderna delivered 199M doses in Q2'21 and 102M doses in Q1'21, the company delivered a collective amount of 301M doses in H1'21 that was recognized as product revenue. Given that our cost of revenue is about $1.1B for H1'21, we could thus derive an average cost per dose of about $3.65, which the company has highlighted that it expects to maintain for the rest of 2021.<blockquote>由于 Moderna 在 21 年第二季度交付了 1.9 亿剂疫苗，在 21 年第一季度交付了 1.02 亿剂疫苗，因此该公司在 21 年上半年交付了 3.01 亿剂疫苗，确认为产品收入。鉴于我们 H1'21 的收入成本约为 $1.1B，因此我们可以得出每剂的平均成本约为 $3.65，该公司强调预计将在 2021 年剩余时间内保持这一水平。</blockquote> Before we carry on, Moderna has highlighted that the cost of sales that the company reflected in H1'21 of $943M included their \"zero-cost COVID-19 inventory,\" as the company emphasized: \"At the end of the first quarter of 2021, we had substantially utilized our zero-cost COVID-19 vaccine inventory. Therefore, if inventory sold for the six months ended June 30, 2021, were valued at cost, our cost of sales for the period would have been $1.1 billion.\" Therefore, based on our computation above, we believe it's important to reflect the cost of sales more accurately, which the company also corroborates in their earnings call.<blockquote>在我们继续之前，Moderna 强调，该公司在 H1’21 中反映的 9.43 亿美元销售成本包括他们的 “零成本 COVID-19 库存”，正如该公司所强调的那样： “截至 2021 年第一季度末，我们已基本使用了零成本 COVID-19 疫苗库存。因此，如果截至 2021 年 6 月 30 日的六个月销售库存按成本估值，我们该期间的销售成本将为 11 亿美元。”因此，基于我们上面的计算，我们认为更准确地反映销售成本非常重要，公司也在其盈利看涨期权中证实了这一点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28b81eba2e15387ebf431cce2b895aba\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Moderna Spikevax pricing tiers. Data source: Moderna<blockquote>现代Spikevax定价等级。数据来源：Moderna</blockquote> Moderna adopts a tiered pricing model to distribute its vaccines equitably. For the USG, the company has applied a \"favorable\" pricing model because of the US government's funding as well as the 500M doses order that the USG committed to Moderna, which the company emphasized, \"is very large.\"<blockquote>Moderna采用分级定价模式来公平分配其疫苗。对于 USG，该公司采用了“有利”的定价模式，因为美国政府的资助以及 USG 向 Moderna 承诺的 5 亿剂订单，该公司强调该订单“非常大”。</blockquote> The other higher-income countries paid between $32 and $37, including larger orders from countries that include the EU with an APA of260M dosesfor 2021. Thus, applying Moderna's large contract discount logic, we should expect the average EU pricing to be at the lower end of the $32 to $37 range.<blockquote>其他高收入国家支付了 32 至 37 美元，其中包括来自包括欧盟在内的国家的更大订单，2021 年 APA 为 2.6 亿剂。因此，应用 Moderna 的大合同折扣逻辑，我们应该预计欧盟平均价格将处于 32 至 37 美元范围的低端。</blockquote> For the lower to middle-income countries, even though the company did not explicitly disclose the exact price range, the company highlighted that this category \"received the lowest-tiered pricing, including those sales to COVAX, which are considerably lower than the price to the U.S. government.\"<blockquote>对于中低收入国家，尽管该公司没有明确披露确切的价格范围，但该公司强调，这一类别“获得了最低等级的定价，包括向 COVAX 销售的产品，这些产品远低于美国政府的价格。”</blockquote> For Moderna, we could easily derive its average price at about $19.7 ($5.93B/301M) per dose for H1'21, even though the company has emphasized that it's likely to be reduced moving into 2022 as they ramp the production for delivery to COVAX as well as the lower and middle-income countries, especially since the COVAX APA is set to increase from 34M doses in 2021 to 117M doses in 2022, with an option to increase up to 350M doses.<blockquote>对于 Moderna，我们可以很容易地得出其 2021 年上半年每剂约 19.7 美元（59.3 亿美元/3.01 亿美元）的平均价格，尽管该公司强调，随着他们提高产量向 COVAX 以及中低收入国家交付，该价格可能会降低，特别是因为 COVAX APA 将从 2021 年的 3400 万剂增加到 2022 年的 1.17 亿剂，并可选择增加最多 3.5 亿剂。</blockquote> COVAX reported an average price of about$5.20 per dose; thus, it would be useful for investors to continue monitoring the impact on the average price for mRNA-1273 moving forward. Moderna has also indicated that it is expecting more price competition as we move from a pandemic towards a world where COVID-19 is endemic. In addition, it may also be useful to watch closely for further improvement in its economies of scale as the company ramps production from an estimated 800M to 1B doses in 2021 to 2B to 3B doses in 2022.<blockquote>COVAX报告的平均价格约为每剂5.20美元；因此，投资者继续监测未来对 mRNA-1273 平均价格的影响将是有用的。Moderna还表示，随着我们从疫情走向新冠肺炎流行的世界，它预计会有更多的价格竞争。此外，随着该公司将产量从 2021 年的预计 8 亿至 1B 剂量提高到 2022 年的 2B 至 3B 剂量，密切关注其规模经济的进一步改善也可能是有用的。</blockquote> Moderna's Strategy Moving <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FORD\">Forward</a><blockquote>Moderna 的战略正在转变<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FORD\">向前</a></blockquote> Share of the population fully vaccinated against COVID-19. Source: OWID<blockquote>完全接种新冠肺炎疫苗的人口比例。资料来源：OWID</blockquote> It's straightforward that Moderna has ramped production significantly to compete for the next phase in COVID-19 distribution for its mRNA-1273 product for countries within the COVAX category in 2022 and 2023 as the high-income countries are starting to approach the 60% to 70% fully vaccinated mark. However, we could clearly glean from the chart above where only 15% of the total world population has been fully vaccinated, while countries like Indonesia and India have only 8% and 7.8% of their population fully inoculated, and South America's 20.9% still has a long way to go as well.<blockquote>很明显，随着高收入国家开始接近 60% 至 70% 的完全接种率，Moderna 已大幅提高产量，以竞争 2022 年和 2023 年 COVAX 类别国家 mRNA-1273 产品的下一阶段 COVID-19 分销。然而，我们可以从上图中清楚地了解到，只有15%的世界总人口接种了疫苗，而印度尼西亚和印度等国家只有8%和7.8%的人口接种了疫苗，南美洲的20.9%也还有很长的路要走。</blockquote> Moving forward, the strategy for the high-income countries is starting to move towards booster shots. We think this is where Moderna, as one of the 2 mRNA vaccines makers, has sufficiently proven its worth against <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>-BioNTech as the company's recent COVE study demonstrated that mRNA-1273 could maintain the efficacy of 93.2%, 4 to 6 months after the second dose, and a 98.2% efficacy against severe disease, as well as a 100% efficacy against death caused by COVID-19. As compared to Pfizer-BioNTech's vaccine, where the efficacy is expected to drop to84%after 6 months, we would clearly applaud the breathtaking results that clearly demonstrate the superiority of Moderna's Spikevax against Comirnaty.<blockquote>展望未来，高收入国家的战略开始转向加强注射。我们认为这就是 Moderna 作为两家 mRNA 疫苗制造商之一，已经充分证明其价值的地方。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>-BioNTech作为该公司最近的COVE研究表明，mRNA-1273在第二剂后4至6个月可以维持93.2%的疗效，对重症有98.2%的疗效，以及对COVID-19导致的死亡有100%的疗效。与辉瑞-BioNTech的疫苗相比，预计6个月后有效率将降至84%，我们显然会为令人惊叹的结果鼓掌，这些结果清楚地证明了Moderna的Spikevax对抗Comirnaty的优越性。</blockquote> To this Moderna Co-founder and Chairman Dr. Noubar Afeyan clearly articulated who he thinks owns the superior mRNA technology for COVID-19 vaccine in the market (shout-out to Pfizer-BioNTech folks):<blockquote>Moderna 联合创始人兼董事长 Noubar Afeyan 博士清楚地阐述了他认为谁拥有市场上 COVID-19 疫苗的卓越 mRNA 技术（向辉瑞-BioNTech 的人们大声喊出来）：</blockquote> We set outto develop the most effective vaccine against this virus that would last for the longest possible time, [helping] the largest number of people to be safe...And this is the first time we had data that at least showed that six months after the initial vaccinations were seeing essentially the same level of protection, which is very encouraging. Moderna also emphasized that we should never underestimate the efficacy differences as just plain numbers, which in Moderna's and Pfizer-BioNTech's case amounted to 9.2% points. The company emphasized that:<blockquote>我们着手开发针对这种病毒的最有效疫苗，这种疫苗将持续尽可能长的时间，【帮助】尽可能多的人安全……这是我们第一次有数据至少显示，在最初接种疫苗六个月后，我们看到了基本相同水平的保护，这是非常令人鼓舞的。Moderna 还强调，我们永远不应该将疗效差异低估为简单的数字，在 Moderna 和辉瑞-BioNTech 的案例中，疗效差异达到 9.2 个百分点。该公司强调：</blockquote> The relative strength of the different vaccines suggested that small differences in efficacy would start to emerge to be larger differences in efficacy at about 200, 250 days as neutralizing antibody titers waned. And that may be what we're starting to see. And if you play that forward, if you assume [Professor Davenport of the University of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NGD\">New</a> South Wales, Australia] been right about those predictions, then that picture continues and continues through a year with continued declining neutralizing antibody titers over that time. And eventually, we therefore believe, a real increase in breakthrough infections and disease even with vaccinated participants, even with mRNA-1273. Moderna has also presented clear findings where it expects that a booster shot would significantly increase the neutralizing titers. In contrast, without the booster, for test subjects 6 to 8 months after their second dose, the neutralizing titers have dropped so significantly that for the Beta, Gamma and Delta variants, the \"neutralizing titers had fallen below the detectable -- the level of detection of the assay for a decent number of participants in all 4 -- all 3 cases.\"<blockquote>不同疫苗的相对强度表明，随着中和抗体滴度的减弱，效力的小差异将在约200、250天时开始出现较大的效力差异。这可能是我们开始看到的。如果你玩前锋，如果你假设[达文波特大学的教授<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NGD\">新的</a>澳大利亚南威尔士]的这些预测是正确的，然后这种情况持续了一年，在此期间中和抗体滴度持续下降。因此，我们认为，最终，即使是接种疫苗的参与者，即使是mRNA-1273，突破性感染和疾病也会真正增加。Moderna 还提出了明确的发现，预计加强注射将显着增加中和滴度。相比之下，在没有加强剂的情况下，对于第二次给药后 6 至 8 个月的测试受试者，中和滴度显著下降，以至于对于 Beta、Gamma 和 Delta 变体，“中和滴度已降至可检测水平以下——所有 3 例病例中相当数量的参与者的检测水平。”</blockquote> As a result, we expect Moderna has strongly assembled the case for a booster with strong evidence suggesting their importance to protect against the new potential variants that may emerge, which Moderna has certainly warned: \"...It seems logical to us that those 3 mutations present in the Beta, Gamma line and those 2 mutations present in the Delta might find some way to combine in new and potentially scary ways. And if that came with the increased transmissibility, [the] force of infection that Delta can achieve, that might be a significant threat. And so we view our multivalent platform as the best place for us to try and anticipate that threat.\"<blockquote>因此，我们预计Moderna已经有力地收集了加强剂的案例，有强有力的证据表明它们在防止可能出现的新的潜在变异方面的重要性，Moderna当然已经警告过这一点：“...在我们看来，β线、γ线中存在的3个突变和δ线中存在的2个突变可能会找到某种方式以新的和潜在的可怕的方式结合起来，这是合乎逻辑的。如果这伴随着传播性的增加，Delta可以实现的传染性，这可能是一个重大威胁。因此，我们将我们的多价平台视为我们尝试和预测这种威胁的最佳场所。”</blockquote> The company is developing a \"proactive\" multivalent platform where it combines \"different variants into a single vaccine\" as its strategy to combat potential variants that are expected to emerge. Based on the company's assays study, this platform clearly outperformed the other candidates in its study. In addition, it stood out as a strong candidate to be used as a booster option, even though the primary mRNA-1273 candidate can also be used effectively as a booster.<blockquote>该公司正在开发一个“主动”多价平台，将“不同的变体组合成单一疫苗”，作为其对抗预计出现的潜在变体的策略。根据该公司的化验研究，该平台在其研究中的表现明显优于其他候选平台。此外，尽管初级mRNA-1273候选物也可以有效地用作加强剂，但它仍然是用作加强剂的有力候选物。</blockquote> However, in a fast-evolving situation with COVID-19, we think having more efficacious options are only going to be beneficial as vaccine makers try to anticipate and are proactive against potential new and more potent antigens where Moderna even admitted that the Delta variant had humbled them, as it added: \"I think the Delta variant has taught us to also be incredibly humble in the face of the virus' ability to fight back and increase its transmission. I mean, I think most of us would have thought SARS-CoV-2 was a pretty good infector earlier this year. Delta has shown us that it can make huge steps forward.\"<blockquote>然而，在 COVID-19 快速发展的形势下，我们认为拥有更有效的选择只会是有益的，因为疫苗制造商试图预测并积极主动地对抗潜在的新的、更有效的抗原，Moderna 甚至承认德尔塔变异毒株让他们感到谦卑，正如它补充的那样： “我认为德尔塔变异毒株教会了我们，面对病毒的反击和传播能力，我们也要保持令人难以置信的谦逊。我的意思是，我想我们大多数人在今年早些时候都会认为 SARS-CoV-2 是一种相当不错的感染者。Delta 向我们展示了它可以向前迈出巨大的步伐。”</blockquote> Risks to our Thesis<blockquote>我们论文的风险</blockquote> By now, it should be clear that 2022 is promising to be a year where Moderna would almost double or triple its supply to 2B or 3B doses, depending on whether the company is using 100 micrograms or 50 micrograms in its product moving forward. Pfizer-BioNTech is also expected to increase its capacity to 3B doses in 2022, while we also need to take into account Novavax's impending entry into the COVID-19 vaccines production game, as well as the Chinese vaccine makers who already have an annual capacity of 5B doses.<blockquote>到目前为止，应该很清楚，2022 年有望成为 Moderna 将其 2B 或 3B 剂量供应量几乎翻一番或三倍的一年，具体取决于该公司未来在其产品中使用的是 100 微克还是 50 微克。辉瑞-BioNTech预计也将在2022年将其产能提高到3B剂量，同时我们还需要考虑到Novavax即将进入新冠肺炎疫苗生产游戏，以及已经拥有5B剂量年产能的中国疫苗制造商。</blockquote> We think there is a realistic chance where Moderna may be facing an over-supply situation even though it may have proven itself to be the superior mRNA vaccine for now against Pfizer-BioNTech.<blockquote>我们认为，Moderna 可能面临供应过剩的情况，尽管它可能已经证明自己是目前针对辉瑞-BioNTech 的优质 mRNA 疫苗。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b54cee9edb8e398275290f3edcdb770\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Revenue forecast mean consensus. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>收入预测意味着共识。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</blockquote> Therefore, we think the Street has prudently lowered its revenue estimates for Moderna over the next few years. The company is also likely to come under pricing pressure against the huge supply expected to come online.<blockquote>因此，我们认为华尔街已谨慎地降低了对 Moderna 未来几年的收入预期。由于预计上线的大量供应量，该公司也可能面临定价压力。</blockquote> However, we think Moderna is keenly aware of it. The company clearly highlighted that they had made good progress in the other 5 therapeutic areas that the company is involved in. Of notable mention is the fast track designation the company recently received from the US FDA for the company'sRSV vaccine candidate, mRNA-1345, especially when there is no approved RSV vaccine yet in the market.<blockquote>然而，我们认为Moderna敏锐地意识到了这一点。该公司明确强调，他们在公司涉足的其他5个治疗领域取得了良好进展。值得一提的是，该公司最近从美国FDA获得了该公司sRSV候选疫苗mRNA-1345的快速通道认证，特别是当市场上还没有批准的RSV疫苗时。</blockquote> In addition, the company has also commenced on the Phase I/II study of its mRNA-1010 quadrivalent seasonal flu vaccine to target the seasonal flu market, where it's worth about $5B to $6B annually, according to Moderna's estimates, especially when the current flu vaccine efficacy is between 40% and 60% according toCDC data. Moderna expects its quadrivalent vaccine to be launched as early as 2023.<blockquote>此外，该公司还开始了针对季节性流感市场的 mRNA-1010 四价季节性流感疫苗的 I/II 期研究，根据 Moderna 的估计，该疫苗每年的价值约为 5B 至 6B 美元，特别是根据 CDC 数据，目前的流感疫苗功效在 40% 至 60% 之间。Moderna 预计其四价疫苗最早将于 2023 年推出。</blockquote> Moderna is also expecting good results from its CMV vaccine, which is expected to be entering Phase III trials soon. It would also allow the company to tap into a market worth between $2B and $5B annually.<blockquote>Moderna也期待其CMV疫苗取得良好效果，预计很快将进入III期试验。它还将允许该公司每年挖掘 20 亿美元至 50 亿美元的市场价值。</blockquote> Hence, we think that the company has been proactively working on the success of its mRNA-1273 to progress confidently along the other programs to sustain its commercial success beyond just being a COVID-19 vaccine maker. Therefore, we encourage investors to monitor its most advanced programs closely and keep pace with them moving forward.<blockquote>因此，我们认为该公司一直在积极致力于其mRNA-1273的成功，以自信地推进其他项目，以维持其商业成功，而不仅仅是一家新冠肺炎疫苗制造商。因此，我们鼓励投资者密切关注其最先进的项目，并跟上其发展步伐。</blockquote> Valuations<blockquote>估值</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69cb54a8282012f6cff4095f28e2a08f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"176\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Biotech peers valuation comp set. Source: TIKR<blockquote>生物技术同行估值补偿集。资料来源：TIKR</blockquote> EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>EV/Fwd 转速趋势。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</blockquote> Moderna is currently trading at an EV / Fwd Rev of about 8x, which interestingly comes in below its peers' mean multiple of 14.14x, where Moderna may look to be attractively valued. However, this assumes that Moderna can keep increasing its revenue strongly over the next few years, a point that we have raised previously may face significant headwinds ahead.<blockquote>Moderna 目前的电动汽车/前轮驱动转速约为 8 倍，有趣的是，低于同行 14.14 倍的平均倍数，而 Moderna 的估值可能很有吸引力。然而，这是假设 Moderna 可以在未来几年继续强劲增加收入，我们之前提出的这一点可能会在未来面临重大阻力。</blockquote> Importantly, we could see that based on the company's expected revenue moving forward, the company is not likely to see meaningful progress on its capital appreciation potential moving forward as its revenue multiple by the end of FY25 is expected to be about 14.6x, which is in line with the peers' mean multiple right now.<blockquote>重要的是，我们可以看到，根据该公司未来的预期收入，该公司未来的资本增值潜力不太可能取得有意义的进展，因为其到 2025 财年末的收入倍数预计约为 14.6 倍，这与目前同行的平均倍数一致。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4cc567a1361ba17617927c47a803418\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"476\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Street's mean price target. Source: TIKR<blockquote>Street 的平均价格目标。资料来源：TIKR</blockquote> Moreover, the Street is also not optimistic on MRNA making meaningful headway from here, and in fact, values the stock at about a 5.2x implied EV / Fwd Rev multiple, at a 35% discount from the last closing price. Analysts from <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OPY\">Oppenheimer</a> also emphasized that \"MRNA sharesare fairly pricing a tremendous amount of future recurring revenues and pipeline progress...[arguing] that the company’s non-COVID pipeline remains 2-3 years away from reaching commercial success.\"<blockquote>此外，华尔街也不看好 MRNA 从这里取得有意义的进展，事实上，该股的估值约为隐含 EV / Fwd Rev 倍数的 5.2 倍，较上次收盘价折扣 35%。分析师来自<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OPY\">奥本海默</a>他还强调，“MRNA 股票对未来大量的经常性收入和产品线进展进行了公平的定价......[认为]该公司的非 COVID 产品线距离取得商业成功还有 2-3 年的时间”。</blockquote> Our opinion is in line with the Street, and we think that a lot of optimism is currently being priced into Moderna at the moment. So we think if investors are sitting on decent profits right now, we strongly encourage you to at least take partial profits and take some risk off the table.<blockquote>我们的观点与华尔街一致，我们认为目前 Moderna 的价值观很大。因此，我们认为，如果投资者现在获得了可观的利润，我们强烈建议您至少获得部分利润并承担一些风险。</blockquote> Price Action and Trend Analysis<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/766a37b6357b74ea899bd0e823ff64a2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: TradingView<blockquote>价格行为和趋势分析来源：TradingView</blockquote> While we are clear about MRNA's long-term uptrend bias (which is why we don't recommend a short-sell strategy against stocks with clear uptrend bias), we also think the stock's price action has recently shown signs of a climax top pattern.<blockquote>虽然我们清楚 MRNA 的长期上升趋势偏见（这就是为什么我们不建议对具有明显上升趋势偏见的股票采取卖空策略），但我们也认为该股的价格走势最近显示出高潮顶部模式的迹象。</blockquote> However, it's impossible to speculate exactly where the top is. Therefore, we think it's prudent for investors to take some profits off the table and wait for the euphoria to chill and cool down before considering adding exposure to MRNA again.<blockquote>然而，不可能准确地推测顶部在哪里。因此，我们认为投资者谨慎的做法是将一些利润从桌面上移开，等待兴奋情绪冷却下来，然后再考虑再次增加 MRNA 的敞口。</blockquote> We have already taken the opportunity of the stock's recent strength to lock in 50% of our profit on MRNA, with a view of locking in even more if we continue to see price action that shows a higher climax top tendency moving forward.<blockquote>我们已经利用该股近期走强的机会锁定了 MRNA 50% 的利润，如果我们继续看到价格走势显示出更高的高潮顶部趋势，我们将锁定更多利润。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4447049-moderna-what-is-next-beyond-covid-vaccine-win\">seeking alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MRNA":"Moderna, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4447049-moderna-what-is-next-beyond-covid-vaccine-win","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109397612","content_text":"Investment Thesis\nModerna (MRNA) and Novavax (NVAX) released their respective Q2 earnings one after the other, with Moderna indicating encouraging progress in its mRNA vaccine programs along with its COVID-19 vaccine production ramp. At the same time, Novavax surprised the market with its delay in filing for emergency use authorization ((EUA)) with the US government ((USG)).\nModerna has continued to make excellent momentum as the company took full advantage of a highly successful COVID-19 vaccine program to develop the other vaccines in other therapeutic areas to future-proof its revenue sustainability, as the world gradually moves on to a world where COVID-19 is endemic.\nThis article provides a timely update for our readers to decide whether Moderna is still a good investment given the recent run-up that we think has resulted in a high amount of optimism being baked into its price.\nQ2 Earnings Recap\nModerna quarterly revenue surprise. Source: Seeking Alpha Premium\nModerna quarterly EPS surprise. Source: Seeking Alpha Premium\nModerna reported a solid Q2 report card, keeping in line with the momentum from Q1, as the company posted revenue of $4.354B and EPS of $6.46, which were 10.3% and 2.8% above the consensus estimates.\nModerna H1'21 revenue and FY21 consensus estimate. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nImportantly, Moderna posted a highly impressive QoQ increase of 125% in revenue from $1.94B in Q1'21 to $4.35B in Q2'21. However, Moderna would need to significantly ramp up in H2'21 for the company to meet the Street's FY21 estimates as H1'21's revenue of $6.29B accounted for only 31.2% of the FY21 consensus estimates.\nTo that, Moderna has assured investors that based on the company's signed advanced purchase agreements ((APA)) for FY21, Moderna indicated that \"expected delivery in 2021reflect the current full-year total of approximately $20 billion in anticipated product sales.\" The company continues to anticipate a supply of at least 800M to 1B doses for 2021.\nStudying Moderna's Gross Margins and Pricing Strategy\nModerna quarterly gross margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nThe production ramp in Q2'21 has also improved Moderna's economies of scale as its gross margin improved markedly in Q2'21, as Moderna's total cost of revenue represents about 26.9% of Q2'21 revenue.\nCrucially, Moderna has indicated that its COVID-19H1'21's product salesof $5.93B which constitute about 94.3% of H1'21's total revenue, has a much lower cost of revenue. Based on our findings, Moderna's COVID-19 product sales have a cost of revenue of $1.1B, representing about 18.5% of H1'21's COVID-19 product revenue, therefore indicating that the average gross margin for its COVID-19 product is about 81.5%. The company has also emphasized that it \"expects the average cost total of sales as a percent of product sales to be between 18% and 20% compared to our previous outlook of approximately 20% of product sales. This reflects the successful ramp-up of this global manufacturing network.\"\nSince Moderna delivered 199M doses in Q2'21 and 102M doses in Q1'21, the company delivered a collective amount of 301M doses in H1'21 that was recognized as product revenue. Given that our cost of revenue is about $1.1B for H1'21, we could thus derive an average cost per dose of about $3.65, which the company has highlighted that it expects to maintain for the rest of 2021.\nBefore we carry on, Moderna has highlighted that the cost of sales that the company reflected in H1'21 of $943M included their \"zero-cost COVID-19 inventory,\" as the company emphasized: \"At the end of the first quarter of 2021, we had substantially utilized our zero-cost COVID-19 vaccine inventory. Therefore, if inventory sold for the six months ended June 30, 2021, were valued at cost, our cost of sales for the period would have been $1.1 billion.\" Therefore, based on our computation above, we believe it's important to reflect the cost of sales more accurately, which the company also corroborates in their earnings call.\nModerna Spikevax pricing tiers. Data source: Moderna\nModerna adopts a tiered pricing model to distribute its vaccines equitably. For the USG, the company has applied a \"favorable\" pricing model because of the US government's funding as well as the 500M doses order that the USG committed to Moderna, which the company emphasized, \"is very large.\"\nThe other higher-income countries paid between $32 and $37, including larger orders from countries that include the EU with an APA of260M dosesfor 2021. Thus, applying Moderna's large contract discount logic, we should expect the average EU pricing to be at the lower end of the $32 to $37 range.\nFor the lower to middle-income countries, even though the company did not explicitly disclose the exact price range, the company highlighted that this category \"received the lowest-tiered pricing, including those sales to COVAX, which are considerably lower than the price to the U.S. government.\"\nFor Moderna, we could easily derive its average price at about $19.7 ($5.93B/301M) per dose for H1'21, even though the company has emphasized that it's likely to be reduced moving into 2022 as they ramp the production for delivery to COVAX as well as the lower and middle-income countries, especially since the COVAX APA is set to increase from 34M doses in 2021 to 117M doses in 2022, with an option to increase up to 350M doses.\nCOVAX reported an average price of about$5.20 per dose; thus, it would be useful for investors to continue monitoring the impact on the average price for mRNA-1273 moving forward. Moderna has also indicated that it is expecting more price competition as we move from a pandemic towards a world where COVID-19 is endemic. In addition, it may also be useful to watch closely for further improvement in its economies of scale as the company ramps production from an estimated 800M to 1B doses in 2021 to 2B to 3B doses in 2022.\nModerna's Strategy Moving Forward\nShare of the population fully vaccinated against COVID-19. Source: OWID\nIt's straightforward that Moderna has ramped production significantly to compete for the next phase in COVID-19 distribution for its mRNA-1273 product for countries within the COVAX category in 2022 and 2023 as the high-income countries are starting to approach the 60% to 70% fully vaccinated mark. However, we could clearly glean from the chart above where only 15% of the total world population has been fully vaccinated, while countries like Indonesia and India have only 8% and 7.8% of their population fully inoculated, and South America's 20.9% still has a long way to go as well.\nMoving forward, the strategy for the high-income countries is starting to move towards booster shots. We think this is where Moderna, as one of the 2 mRNA vaccines makers, has sufficiently proven its worth against Pfizer-BioNTech as the company's recent COVE study demonstrated that mRNA-1273 could maintain the efficacy of 93.2%, 4 to 6 months after the second dose, and a 98.2% efficacy against severe disease, as well as a 100% efficacy against death caused by COVID-19. As compared to Pfizer-BioNTech's vaccine, where the efficacy is expected to drop to84%after 6 months, we would clearly applaud the breathtaking results that clearly demonstrate the superiority of Moderna's Spikevax against Comirnaty.\nTo this Moderna Co-founder and Chairman Dr. Noubar Afeyan clearly articulated who he thinks owns the superior mRNA technology for COVID-19 vaccine in the market (shout-out to Pfizer-BioNTech folks):\n\n We set outto develop the most effective vaccine against this virus that would last for the longest possible time, [helping] the largest number of people to be safe...And this is the first time we had data that at least showed that six months after the initial vaccinations were seeing essentially the same level of protection, which is very encouraging.\n\nModerna also emphasized that we should never underestimate the efficacy differences as just plain numbers, which in Moderna's and Pfizer-BioNTech's case amounted to 9.2% points. The company emphasized that:\n\n The relative strength of the different vaccines suggested that small differences in efficacy would start to emerge to be larger differences in efficacy at about 200, 250 days as neutralizing antibody titers waned. And that may be what we're starting to see. And if you play that forward, if you assume [Professor Davenport of the University of New South Wales, Australia] been right about those predictions, then that picture continues and continues through a year with continued declining neutralizing antibody titers over that time. And eventually, we therefore believe, a real increase in breakthrough infections and disease even with vaccinated participants, even with mRNA-1273.\n\nModerna has also presented clear findings where it expects that a booster shot would significantly increase the neutralizing titers. In contrast, without the booster, for test subjects 6 to 8 months after their second dose, the neutralizing titers have dropped so significantly that for the Beta, Gamma and Delta variants, the \"neutralizing titers had fallen below the detectable -- the level of detection of the assay for a decent number of participants in all 4 -- all 3 cases.\"\nAs a result, we expect Moderna has strongly assembled the case for a booster with strong evidence suggesting their importance to protect against the new potential variants that may emerge, which Moderna has certainly warned: \"...It seems logical to us that those 3 mutations present in the Beta, Gamma line and those 2 mutations present in the Delta might find some way to combine in new and potentially scary ways. And if that came with the increased transmissibility, [the] force of infection that Delta can achieve, that might be a significant threat. And so we view our multivalent platform as the best place for us to try and anticipate that threat.\"\nThe company is developing a \"proactive\" multivalent platform where it combines \"different variants into a single vaccine\" as its strategy to combat potential variants that are expected to emerge. Based on the company's assays study, this platform clearly outperformed the other candidates in its study. In addition, it stood out as a strong candidate to be used as a booster option, even though the primary mRNA-1273 candidate can also be used effectively as a booster.\nHowever, in a fast-evolving situation with COVID-19, we think having more efficacious options are only going to be beneficial as vaccine makers try to anticipate and are proactive against potential new and more potent antigens where Moderna even admitted that the Delta variant had humbled them, as it added: \"I think the Delta variant has taught us to also be incredibly humble in the face of the virus' ability to fight back and increase its transmission. I mean, I think most of us would have thought SARS-CoV-2 was a pretty good infector earlier this year. Delta has shown us that it can make huge steps forward.\"\nRisks to our Thesis\nBy now, it should be clear that 2022 is promising to be a year where Moderna would almost double or triple its supply to 2B or 3B doses, depending on whether the company is using 100 micrograms or 50 micrograms in its product moving forward. Pfizer-BioNTech is also expected to increase its capacity to 3B doses in 2022, while we also need to take into account Novavax's impending entry into the COVID-19 vaccines production game, as well as the Chinese vaccine makers who already have an annual capacity of 5B doses.\nWe think there is a realistic chance where Moderna may be facing an over-supply situation even though it may have proven itself to be the superior mRNA vaccine for now against Pfizer-BioNTech.\nRevenue forecast mean consensus. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nTherefore, we think the Street has prudently lowered its revenue estimates for Moderna over the next few years. The company is also likely to come under pricing pressure against the huge supply expected to come online.\nHowever, we think Moderna is keenly aware of it. The company clearly highlighted that they had made good progress in the other 5 therapeutic areas that the company is involved in. Of notable mention is the fast track designation the company recently received from the US FDA for the company'sRSV vaccine candidate, mRNA-1345, especially when there is no approved RSV vaccine yet in the market.\nIn addition, the company has also commenced on the Phase I/II study of its mRNA-1010 quadrivalent seasonal flu vaccine to target the seasonal flu market, where it's worth about $5B to $6B annually, according to Moderna's estimates, especially when the current flu vaccine efficacy is between 40% and 60% according toCDC data. Moderna expects its quadrivalent vaccine to be launched as early as 2023.\nModerna is also expecting good results from its CMV vaccine, which is expected to be entering Phase III trials soon. It would also allow the company to tap into a market worth between $2B and $5B annually.\nHence, we think that the company has been proactively working on the success of its mRNA-1273 to progress confidently along the other programs to sustain its commercial success beyond just being a COVID-19 vaccine maker. Therefore, we encourage investors to monitor its most advanced programs closely and keep pace with them moving forward.\nValuations\nBiotech peers valuation comp set. Source: TIKR\nEV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nModerna is currently trading at an EV / Fwd Rev of about 8x, which interestingly comes in below its peers' mean multiple of 14.14x, where Moderna may look to be attractively valued. However, this assumes that Moderna can keep increasing its revenue strongly over the next few years, a point that we have raised previously may face significant headwinds ahead.\nImportantly, we could see that based on the company's expected revenue moving forward, the company is not likely to see meaningful progress on its capital appreciation potential moving forward as its revenue multiple by the end of FY25 is expected to be about 14.6x, which is in line with the peers' mean multiple right now.\nStreet's mean price target. Source: TIKR\nMoreover, the Street is also not optimistic on MRNA making meaningful headway from here, and in fact, values the stock at about a 5.2x implied EV / Fwd Rev multiple, at a 35% discount from the last closing price. Analysts from Oppenheimer also emphasized that \"MRNA sharesare fairly pricing a tremendous amount of future recurring revenues and pipeline progress...[arguing] that the company’s non-COVID pipeline remains 2-3 years away from reaching commercial success.\"\nOur opinion is in line with the Street, and we think that a lot of optimism is currently being priced into Moderna at the moment. So we think if investors are sitting on decent profits right now, we strongly encourage you to at least take partial profits and take some risk off the table.\nPrice Action and Trend AnalysisSource: TradingView\nWhile we are clear about MRNA's long-term uptrend bias (which is why we don't recommend a short-sell strategy against stocks with clear uptrend bias), we also think the stock's price action has recently shown signs of a climax top pattern.\nHowever, it's impossible to speculate exactly where the top is. Therefore, we think it's prudent for investors to take some profits off the table and wait for the euphoria to chill and cool down before considering adding exposure to MRNA again.\nWe have already taken the opportunity of the stock's recent strength to lock in 50% of our profit on MRNA, with a view of locking in even more if we continue to see price action that shows a higher climax top tendency moving forward.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MRNA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2581,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":12,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/896643687"}