Qinfeng
2021-08-06
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Visa: Slowing Growth Rate, We May Need More<blockquote>Visa：增长率放缓，我们可能需要更多</blockquote>
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Even as they don't pay a high dividend yield, the transition from debit and account balance style of financing over to digital and credit (or simply debt) has been a major boon for the company's top and bottom lines. As a result, and together with a sizable multi-billion dollar share repurchasing program, delivered a CAGR return of over 27.5% over the past decade.</p><p><blockquote>Visa（V）一直是财富积累的终极成功故事。尽管他们不支付高股息收益率，但从借记和账户余额融资方式向数字和信贷（或简称债务）的转变对公司的营收和利润来说是一个重大利好。因此，加上数十亿美元的大规模股票回购计划，在过去十年中实现了超过27.5%的CAGR回报率。</blockquote></p><p> Now, as expected, this debit-to-debt transition rate is slowing as most of the developed world has already shifted to paperless, contactless and debit-less financial situations and this is seen by analyst forecasts slowing growth rates from 27% to 15% over the next 5 years. Although I do believe that the company is likely to beat these expectations by a handsome margin, it's still slightly concerning for the longer-run return prospects.</p><p><blockquote>现在，正如预期的那样，随着大多数发达国家已经转向无纸化、非接触式和无借记的财务状况，这种借记到债务的转变速度正在放缓，分析师预测未来5年的增长率将从27%放缓至15%。尽管我确实相信该公司可能会大幅超出这些预期，但对于长期回报前景来说，这仍然有点令人担忧。</blockquote></p><p> Although we can have the dividend vs buyback debate all day every day, I think that there should be some consideration to a dividend hike as they currently only pay a 0.5% annual dividend yield which does not entice investors given the slowing growth rate for the longer run.</p><p><blockquote>尽管我们每天都可以进行股息与回购的辩论，但我认为应该考虑提高股息，因为他们目前只支付0.5%的年股息收益率，考虑到长期增长率放缓，这并不能吸引投资者。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Accumulating Growth & Returning Value</b></p><p><blockquote><b>累积增长与回报价值</b></blockquote></p><p> Visa has seen one of the steadiest share price appreciation environments in the entire stocks market and it has done so on behalf of the transition from debit to credit in almost all of the elements in our lives. We use credit for our day-to-day lives as well as buying vehicles, housing, eating out and all of those high-growth segments which are seeing huge jumps as our priorities shift as a nation. The levels of debt that the average American and global consumer is taking on is concerning on a societal level, but as it's not expected to change any time soon, the company is set to benefit from this steady stream of income with sky-high margins due to almost insignificant upkeep expenses.</p><p><blockquote>Visa 见证了整个股票市场中最稳定的股价升值环境之一，它这样做是为了在我们生活的几乎所有方面实现从借方到信贷的转变。我们在日常生活中使用信贷，也用于购买汽车、住房、外出就餐以及所有这些高增长领域，随着我们作为一个国家的优先事项的转变，这些领域都出现了巨大的飞跃。普通美国和全球消费者承担的债务水平在社会层面上令人担忧，但由于预计不会很快改变，该公司将从这种稳定的收入流中受益，由于几乎可以忽略不计的维护费用，利润率极高。</blockquote></p><p> Another positive factor is the company's use of share repurchasing to increase their value per share. Over the past decade, the company has bought back roughly $8 billion worth of its own stock every year and has a new authorization which gives it the ability to buy back as much as $11 billion of its own stock in 2021 alone. So far, they've repurchased almost $4 billion of their stock in 2021 and are expected to accelerate this repurchasing as the year progresses as they've stepped it down during the post-pandemic months. The company used the pandemic sell-off to purchase almost $5 billion worth of stock in the first several months of 2020.</p><p><blockquote>另一个积极因素是该公司利用股票回购来增加每股价值。在过去十年中，该公司每年回购价值约 80 亿美元的自有股票，并获得了新的授权，仅在 2021 年就有能力回购高达 110 亿美元的自有股票。到目前为止，他们已经在 2021 年回购了近 40 亿美元的股票，预计随着今年的进展，他们将加快回购速度，因为他们在大流行后的几个月里减少了股票。该公司利用疫情抛售在 2020 年前几个月购买了价值近 50 亿美元的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Even so, this is only a roughly 2.2% reduction in shares outstanding annually. There surely is a large percentage of investors who would likely prefer the company provide a higher dividend yield, which could create better value. Since the company has such a sky-high gross margin, which is only expected to increase as they integrate third-party services and see higher overall credit spending, they can certainly sustain a higher dividend yield and maintain some amount of share repurchases.</p><p><blockquote>即便如此，这每年仅减少了大约 2.2% 的流通股。肯定有很大一部分投资者可能更希望公司提供更高的股息收益率，这可以创造更好的价值。由于该公司拥有如此高的毛利率，预计随着他们整合第三方服务和看到更高的整体信贷支出，毛利率只会增加，他们当然可以维持更高的股息收益率并维持一定数量的股票回购。</blockquote></p><p> <b>There's One More Thing</b></p><p><blockquote><b>还有一件事</b></blockquote></p><p> One thing that is slightly concerning to me is the company's debt position. They've held off from taking on any long-term debt for decades but in recent years has accumulated just under $20 billion in long-term debt. As a result, they've been paying over $530 million annually in interest expense. The danger here is that we're in a rising rate environment and although other parts of their business will gain from this, there's the potential for them to see as much as $1 billion annually disappear from their balance sheets if they continue to hold some of this debt for the next few years.</p><p><blockquote>我稍微担心的一件事是该公司的债务状况。几十年来，他们一直没有承担任何长期债务，但近年来积累的长期债务略低于 200 亿美元。因此，他们每年支付超过 5.3 亿美元的利息支出。这里的危险在于，我们正处于利率上升的环境中，尽管他们业务的其他部分将从中受益，但如果他们继续持有其中一些债务，他们每年可能会从资产负债表上消失多达 10 亿美元未来几年。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The positive spin on this is that the company does currently hold their highest ever cash position with just over $18 billion in cash and equivalents as well as another $1.2 billion in short-term investments. Moreover, although they've been investing less money and returning less interest income, they have been retiring the high-yield debt ahead of schedule and as a result, interest expense has been on the decline. It's unclear what the company's priorities will be moving forward but I do expect more of this to continue. They do have the potential to pay back most of the non-fixed-rate debt if they can't find a higher ROI (return on investment) to use the cash.</p><p><blockquote>积极的一面是，该公司目前确实持有有史以来最高的现金头寸，现金和等价物略高于 180 亿美元，另有 12 亿美元的短期投资。此外，尽管他们投入的资金越来越少，利息收入也越来越少，但他们一直在提前偿还高收益债务，因此利息支出一直在下降。目前还不清楚该公司未来的优先事项是什么，但我确实预计这种情况会继续下去。如果他们找不到更高的投资回报率（投资回报率）来使用现金，他们确实有可能偿还大部分非固定利率债务。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Slowing Growth Rate: Why We're All Here</b></p><p><blockquote><b>增长率放缓：为什么我们都在这里</b></blockquote></p><p> The reason I talk about the demand for a higher yield as well as various debt and cash positions is because, naturally, sales and income growth rates are expected to slow after decades of accelerating growth due to the debit-to-debt transition.</p><p><blockquote>我之所以谈论对更高收益率以及各种债务和现金头寸的需求，是因为，由于债务向债务的转变，在经历了数十年的加速增长后，销售和收入增长率自然会放缓。</blockquote></p><p> The company has shown a CAGR of over 27.5% over the past 10 years and now analysts expect the company to report a, still high, but slowing rate. For the next 5 years,they currently expect a CAGR of 13.9% to EPS, significantly less than the past 5 years. Here are the figures for 2020 through 2025:</p><p><blockquote>过去 10 年，该公司的复合年增长率超过 27.5%，现在分析师预计该公司的增长率仍然很高，但正在放缓。他们目前预计未来 5 年每股收益的复合年增长率为 13.9%，明显低于过去 5 年。以下是 2020 年至 2025 年的数据：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b41c1540a1a9a1f8b55455396430ced\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"214\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Analyst projections,Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：分析师预测，Seeking Alpha）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <table> <tbody> <tr></tr> </tbody> </table> Even as the company has beaten expectations for most of the past decade quarterly reporting, it's unclear if this will continue as analysts project that the company's margins will improve significantly over the next few years, as evident by sales growth expectations. This doesn't make much sense to me as more competitive pressures and third-party services like cashback, advertising revenue sharing services and more will start eating at the company's sky-high margins over the next several years.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table>尽管该公司在过去十年的大部分季度报告中都超出了预期，但目前尚不清楚这种情况是否会持续下去，因为分析师预计该公司的利润率将在未来几年显着提高，销售增长预期就证明了这一点。这对我来说没有多大意义，因为更多的竞争压力和返现、广告收入分享服务等第三方服务将在未来几年开始侵蚀该公司的天价利润率。</blockquote></p><p> For sales, analysts currently expect Visa to report a sales CAGR of 10.3% throughout the same timeframe as I mentioned earlier for EPS projections. This means that the company will increase margins as they expect EPS to grow at a higher, near 14% growth rate over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>对于销售，分析师目前预计 Visa 在同一时间段内的销售复合年增长率为 10.3%，与我之前提到的每股收益预测相同。这意味着该公司将提高利润率，因为他们预计同期每股收益将以更高的增长率增长，接近 14%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d2373e15699c5dac4ff966da4235f97\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"214\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Analyst projections,Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：分析师预测，Seeking Alpha）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <table> <tbody> <tr></tr> </tbody> </table> I continue to believe that the company may beat sales expectations as we see stronger transition figures but I do not believe we'll be seeing much EPS beats if they continue to guide for margin expansion. The transitions within these industries away from high-interest products to still-high-but-lower interest products are almost certain to put a small but significant damper on margin growth.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table>我仍然相信，随着我们看到更强劲的转型数据，该公司可能会超出销售预期，但我认为如果他们继续指导利润率扩张，我们不会看到每股收益大幅超出预期。这些行业从高利率产品向仍然高但较低利率产品的转变几乎肯定会对利润率增长产生小而显著的抑制。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Visa has a bright future ahead and with the roughly 15% expected EPS growth rate and the additional 2.2% buyback rate, it is nearly certain to beat the overall market return rate, which has historically been just over 10%. Even so, the company growth rate is inevitably slowing, and with rising competitive pressure and third party services expenses, I believe there needs to be more to entice long term yield investors who may not be all that optimistic about the company's ability to continue and beat the market without being paid to wait.</p><p><blockquote>Visa 拥有光明的未来，预计每股收益增长率约为 15%，回购率另加 2.2%，几乎肯定会超过整体市场回报率，而整体市场回报率历史上略高于 10%。即便如此，公司增长率也不可避免地在放缓，随着竞争压力和第三方服务费用的上升，我相信需要更多的东西来吸引长期收益率投资者，他们可能对公司在没有报酬的情况下继续战胜市场的能力并不那么乐观。</blockquote></p><p> The company has more than enough cash to increase its dividend yield to over 2% while continuing the same level of share repurchasing. Investing that cash has been good for the company but has not brought even close to the same level of return that hiking dividend or increasing buyback will do.</p><p><blockquote>该公司拥有足够的现金将股息收益率提高到 2% 以上，同时继续保持相同水平的股票回购。投资这些现金对公司有利，但甚至没有带来与提高股息或增加回购相同的回报水平。</blockquote></p><p> I remain bullish on the company's long-term prospects but am waiting to see some more of a focus on shareholder value before adding to a position.</p><p><blockquote>我仍然看好该公司的长期前景，但在加仓之前，我正在等待看到对股东价值的更多关注。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Visa: Slowing Growth Rate, We May Need More<blockquote>Visa：增长率放缓，我们可能需要更多</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nVisa: Slowing Growth Rate, We May Need More<blockquote>Visa：增长率放缓，我们可能需要更多</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-06 10:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Visa has been superb at delivering value and growth for investors and customers for the past decade and more, with more and more of our everyday financial transactions moving digital.</li> <li>However, growth rate is inevitably going to slow down and I believe the company should be hiking their dividend to entice investors to stay on the gravy train.</li> <li>I remain bullish on the company's prospects even as I believe we need to see more.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1398f95e9598dac1a92ba228f0a0cd0c\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>miniseries/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在过去十年或更长时间里，随着我们越来越多的日常金融交易转向数字化，Visa在为投资者和客户提供价值和增长方面表现出色。</li><li>然而，增长率不可避免地会放缓，我认为该公司应该提高股息，以吸引投资者留在肉汁列车上。</li><li>我仍然看好该公司的前景，尽管我相信我们需要看到更多。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>迷你剧/E+ 来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Visa (V) has been the ultimate success story of wealth accumulation. Even as they don't pay a high dividend yield, the transition from debit and account balance style of financing over to digital and credit (or simply debt) has been a major boon for the company's top and bottom lines. As a result, and together with a sizable multi-billion dollar share repurchasing program, delivered a CAGR return of over 27.5% over the past decade.</p><p><blockquote>Visa（V）一直是财富积累的终极成功故事。尽管他们不支付高股息收益率，但从借记和账户余额融资方式向数字和信贷（或简称债务）的转变对公司的营收和利润来说是一个重大利好。因此，加上数十亿美元的大规模股票回购计划，在过去十年中实现了超过27.5%的CAGR回报率。</blockquote></p><p> Now, as expected, this debit-to-debt transition rate is slowing as most of the developed world has already shifted to paperless, contactless and debit-less financial situations and this is seen by analyst forecasts slowing growth rates from 27% to 15% over the next 5 years. Although I do believe that the company is likely to beat these expectations by a handsome margin, it's still slightly concerning for the longer-run return prospects.</p><p><blockquote>现在，正如预期的那样，随着大多数发达国家已经转向无纸化、非接触式和无借记的财务状况，这种借记到债务的转变速度正在放缓，分析师预测未来5年的增长率将从27%放缓至15%。尽管我确实相信该公司可能会大幅超出这些预期，但对于长期回报前景来说，这仍然有点令人担忧。</blockquote></p><p> Although we can have the dividend vs buyback debate all day every day, I think that there should be some consideration to a dividend hike as they currently only pay a 0.5% annual dividend yield which does not entice investors given the slowing growth rate for the longer run.</p><p><blockquote>尽管我们每天都可以进行股息与回购的辩论，但我认为应该考虑提高股息，因为他们目前只支付0.5%的年股息收益率，考虑到长期增长率放缓，这并不能吸引投资者。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Accumulating Growth & Returning Value</b></p><p><blockquote><b>累积增长与回报价值</b></blockquote></p><p> Visa has seen one of the steadiest share price appreciation environments in the entire stocks market and it has done so on behalf of the transition from debit to credit in almost all of the elements in our lives. We use credit for our day-to-day lives as well as buying vehicles, housing, eating out and all of those high-growth segments which are seeing huge jumps as our priorities shift as a nation. The levels of debt that the average American and global consumer is taking on is concerning on a societal level, but as it's not expected to change any time soon, the company is set to benefit from this steady stream of income with sky-high margins due to almost insignificant upkeep expenses.</p><p><blockquote>Visa 见证了整个股票市场中最稳定的股价升值环境之一，它这样做是为了在我们生活的几乎所有方面实现从借方到信贷的转变。我们在日常生活中使用信贷，也用于购买汽车、住房、外出就餐以及所有这些高增长领域，随着我们作为一个国家的优先事项的转变，这些领域都出现了巨大的飞跃。普通美国和全球消费者承担的债务水平在社会层面上令人担忧，但由于预计不会很快改变，该公司将从这种稳定的收入流中受益，由于几乎可以忽略不计的维护费用，利润率极高。</blockquote></p><p> Another positive factor is the company's use of share repurchasing to increase their value per share. Over the past decade, the company has bought back roughly $8 billion worth of its own stock every year and has a new authorization which gives it the ability to buy back as much as $11 billion of its own stock in 2021 alone. So far, they've repurchased almost $4 billion of their stock in 2021 and are expected to accelerate this repurchasing as the year progresses as they've stepped it down during the post-pandemic months. The company used the pandemic sell-off to purchase almost $5 billion worth of stock in the first several months of 2020.</p><p><blockquote>另一个积极因素是该公司利用股票回购来增加每股价值。在过去十年中，该公司每年回购价值约 80 亿美元的自有股票，并获得了新的授权，仅在 2021 年就有能力回购高达 110 亿美元的自有股票。到目前为止，他们已经在 2021 年回购了近 40 亿美元的股票，预计随着今年的进展，他们将加快回购速度，因为他们在大流行后的几个月里减少了股票。该公司利用疫情抛售在 2020 年前几个月购买了价值近 50 亿美元的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Even so, this is only a roughly 2.2% reduction in shares outstanding annually. There surely is a large percentage of investors who would likely prefer the company provide a higher dividend yield, which could create better value. Since the company has such a sky-high gross margin, which is only expected to increase as they integrate third-party services and see higher overall credit spending, they can certainly sustain a higher dividend yield and maintain some amount of share repurchases.</p><p><blockquote>即便如此，这每年仅减少了大约 2.2% 的流通股。肯定有很大一部分投资者可能更希望公司提供更高的股息收益率，这可以创造更好的价值。由于该公司拥有如此高的毛利率，预计随着他们整合第三方服务和看到更高的整体信贷支出，毛利率只会增加，他们当然可以维持更高的股息收益率并维持一定数量的股票回购。</blockquote></p><p> <b>There's One More Thing</b></p><p><blockquote><b>还有一件事</b></blockquote></p><p> One thing that is slightly concerning to me is the company's debt position. They've held off from taking on any long-term debt for decades but in recent years has accumulated just under $20 billion in long-term debt. As a result, they've been paying over $530 million annually in interest expense. The danger here is that we're in a rising rate environment and although other parts of their business will gain from this, there's the potential for them to see as much as $1 billion annually disappear from their balance sheets if they continue to hold some of this debt for the next few years.</p><p><blockquote>我稍微担心的一件事是该公司的债务状况。几十年来，他们一直没有承担任何长期债务，但近年来积累的长期债务略低于 200 亿美元。因此，他们每年支付超过 5.3 亿美元的利息支出。这里的危险在于，我们正处于利率上升的环境中，尽管他们业务的其他部分将从中受益，但如果他们继续持有其中一些债务，他们每年可能会从资产负债表上消失多达 10 亿美元未来几年。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The positive spin on this is that the company does currently hold their highest ever cash position with just over $18 billion in cash and equivalents as well as another $1.2 billion in short-term investments. Moreover, although they've been investing less money and returning less interest income, they have been retiring the high-yield debt ahead of schedule and as a result, interest expense has been on the decline. It's unclear what the company's priorities will be moving forward but I do expect more of this to continue. They do have the potential to pay back most of the non-fixed-rate debt if they can't find a higher ROI (return on investment) to use the cash.</p><p><blockquote>积极的一面是，该公司目前确实持有有史以来最高的现金头寸，现金和等价物略高于 180 亿美元，另有 12 亿美元的短期投资。此外，尽管他们投入的资金越来越少，利息收入也越来越少，但他们一直在提前偿还高收益债务，因此利息支出一直在下降。目前还不清楚该公司未来的优先事项是什么，但我确实预计这种情况会继续下去。如果他们找不到更高的投资回报率（投资回报率）来使用现金，他们确实有可能偿还大部分非固定利率债务。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Slowing Growth Rate: Why We're All Here</b></p><p><blockquote><b>增长率放缓：为什么我们都在这里</b></blockquote></p><p> The reason I talk about the demand for a higher yield as well as various debt and cash positions is because, naturally, sales and income growth rates are expected to slow after decades of accelerating growth due to the debit-to-debt transition.</p><p><blockquote>我之所以谈论对更高收益率以及各种债务和现金头寸的需求，是因为，由于债务向债务的转变，在经历了数十年的加速增长后，销售和收入增长率自然会放缓。</blockquote></p><p> The company has shown a CAGR of over 27.5% over the past 10 years and now analysts expect the company to report a, still high, but slowing rate. For the next 5 years,they currently expect a CAGR of 13.9% to EPS, significantly less than the past 5 years. Here are the figures for 2020 through 2025:</p><p><blockquote>过去 10 年，该公司的复合年增长率超过 27.5%，现在分析师预计该公司的增长率仍然很高，但正在放缓。他们目前预计未来 5 年每股收益的复合年增长率为 13.9%，明显低于过去 5 年。以下是 2020 年至 2025 年的数据：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b41c1540a1a9a1f8b55455396430ced\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"214\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Analyst projections,Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：分析师预测，Seeking Alpha）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <table> <tbody> <tr></tr> </tbody> </table> Even as the company has beaten expectations for most of the past decade quarterly reporting, it's unclear if this will continue as analysts project that the company's margins will improve significantly over the next few years, as evident by sales growth expectations. This doesn't make much sense to me as more competitive pressures and third-party services like cashback, advertising revenue sharing services and more will start eating at the company's sky-high margins over the next several years.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table>尽管该公司在过去十年的大部分季度报告中都超出了预期，但目前尚不清楚这种情况是否会持续下去，因为分析师预计该公司的利润率将在未来几年显着提高，销售增长预期就证明了这一点。这对我来说没有多大意义，因为更多的竞争压力和返现、广告收入分享服务等第三方服务将在未来几年开始侵蚀该公司的天价利润率。</blockquote></p><p> For sales, analysts currently expect Visa to report a sales CAGR of 10.3% throughout the same timeframe as I mentioned earlier for EPS projections. This means that the company will increase margins as they expect EPS to grow at a higher, near 14% growth rate over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>对于销售，分析师目前预计 Visa 在同一时间段内的销售复合年增长率为 10.3%，与我之前提到的每股收益预测相同。这意味着该公司将提高利润率，因为他们预计同期每股收益将以更高的增长率增长，接近 14%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d2373e15699c5dac4ff966da4235f97\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"214\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Analyst projections,Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：分析师预测，Seeking Alpha）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <table> <tbody> <tr></tr> </tbody> </table> I continue to believe that the company may beat sales expectations as we see stronger transition figures but I do not believe we'll be seeing much EPS beats if they continue to guide for margin expansion. The transitions within these industries away from high-interest products to still-high-but-lower interest products are almost certain to put a small but significant damper on margin growth.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table>我仍然相信，随着我们看到更强劲的转型数据，该公司可能会超出销售预期，但我认为如果他们继续指导利润率扩张，我们不会看到每股收益大幅超出预期。这些行业从高利率产品向仍然高但较低利率产品的转变几乎肯定会对利润率增长产生小而显著的抑制。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Visa has a bright future ahead and with the roughly 15% expected EPS growth rate and the additional 2.2% buyback rate, it is nearly certain to beat the overall market return rate, which has historically been just over 10%. Even so, the company growth rate is inevitably slowing, and with rising competitive pressure and third party services expenses, I believe there needs to be more to entice long term yield investors who may not be all that optimistic about the company's ability to continue and beat the market without being paid to wait.</p><p><blockquote>Visa 拥有光明的未来，预计每股收益增长率约为 15%，回购率另加 2.2%，几乎肯定会超过整体市场回报率，而整体市场回报率历史上略高于 10%。即便如此，公司增长率也不可避免地在放缓，随着竞争压力和第三方服务费用的上升，我相信需要更多的东西来吸引长期收益率投资者，他们可能对公司在没有报酬的情况下继续战胜市场的能力并不那么乐观。</blockquote></p><p> The company has more than enough cash to increase its dividend yield to over 2% while continuing the same level of share repurchasing. Investing that cash has been good for the company but has not brought even close to the same level of return that hiking dividend or increasing buyback will do.</p><p><blockquote>该公司拥有足够的现金将股息收益率提高到 2% 以上，同时继续保持相同水平的股票回购。投资这些现金对公司有利，但甚至没有带来与提高股息或增加回购相同的回报水平。</blockquote></p><p> I remain bullish on the company's long-term prospects but am waiting to see some more of a focus on shareholder value before adding to a position.</p><p><blockquote>我仍然看好该公司的长期前景，但在加仓之前，我正在等待看到对股东价值的更多关注。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4445698-visa-slowing-growth-rate-we-may-need-more\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"V":"Visa"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4445698-visa-slowing-growth-rate-we-may-need-more","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186157835","content_text":"Summary\n\nVisa has been superb at delivering value and growth for investors and customers for the past decade and more, with more and more of our everyday financial transactions moving digital.\nHowever, growth rate is inevitably going to slow down and I believe the company should be hiking their dividend to entice investors to stay on the gravy train.\nI remain bullish on the company's prospects even as I believe we need to see more.\n\nminiseries/E+ via Getty Images\nVisa (V) has been the ultimate success story of wealth accumulation. Even as they don't pay a high dividend yield, the transition from debit and account balance style of financing over to digital and credit (or simply debt) has been a major boon for the company's top and bottom lines. As a result, and together with a sizable multi-billion dollar share repurchasing program, delivered a CAGR return of over 27.5% over the past decade.\nNow, as expected, this debit-to-debt transition rate is slowing as most of the developed world has already shifted to paperless, contactless and debit-less financial situations and this is seen by analyst forecasts slowing growth rates from 27% to 15% over the next 5 years. Although I do believe that the company is likely to beat these expectations by a handsome margin, it's still slightly concerning for the longer-run return prospects.\nAlthough we can have the dividend vs buyback debate all day every day, I think that there should be some consideration to a dividend hike as they currently only pay a 0.5% annual dividend yield which does not entice investors given the slowing growth rate for the longer run.\nAccumulating Growth & Returning Value\nVisa has seen one of the steadiest share price appreciation environments in the entire stocks market and it has done so on behalf of the transition from debit to credit in almost all of the elements in our lives. We use credit for our day-to-day lives as well as buying vehicles, housing, eating out and all of those high-growth segments which are seeing huge jumps as our priorities shift as a nation. The levels of debt that the average American and global consumer is taking on is concerning on a societal level, but as it's not expected to change any time soon, the company is set to benefit from this steady stream of income with sky-high margins due to almost insignificant upkeep expenses.\nAnother positive factor is the company's use of share repurchasing to increase their value per share. Over the past decade, the company has bought back roughly $8 billion worth of its own stock every year and has a new authorization which gives it the ability to buy back as much as $11 billion of its own stock in 2021 alone. So far, they've repurchased almost $4 billion of their stock in 2021 and are expected to accelerate this repurchasing as the year progresses as they've stepped it down during the post-pandemic months. The company used the pandemic sell-off to purchase almost $5 billion worth of stock in the first several months of 2020.\nEven so, this is only a roughly 2.2% reduction in shares outstanding annually. There surely is a large percentage of investors who would likely prefer the company provide a higher dividend yield, which could create better value. Since the company has such a sky-high gross margin, which is only expected to increase as they integrate third-party services and see higher overall credit spending, they can certainly sustain a higher dividend yield and maintain some amount of share repurchases.\nThere's One More Thing\nOne thing that is slightly concerning to me is the company's debt position. They've held off from taking on any long-term debt for decades but in recent years has accumulated just under $20 billion in long-term debt. As a result, they've been paying over $530 million annually in interest expense. The danger here is that we're in a rising rate environment and although other parts of their business will gain from this, there's the potential for them to see as much as $1 billion annually disappear from their balance sheets if they continue to hold some of this debt for the next few years.\nThe positive spin on this is that the company does currently hold their highest ever cash position with just over $18 billion in cash and equivalents as well as another $1.2 billion in short-term investments. Moreover, although they've been investing less money and returning less interest income, they have been retiring the high-yield debt ahead of schedule and as a result, interest expense has been on the decline. It's unclear what the company's priorities will be moving forward but I do expect more of this to continue. They do have the potential to pay back most of the non-fixed-rate debt if they can't find a higher ROI (return on investment) to use the cash.\nSlowing Growth Rate: Why We're All Here\nThe reason I talk about the demand for a higher yield as well as various debt and cash positions is because, naturally, sales and income growth rates are expected to slow after decades of accelerating growth due to the debit-to-debt transition.\nThe company has shown a CAGR of over 27.5% over the past 10 years and now analysts expect the company to report a, still high, but slowing rate. For the next 5 years,they currently expect a CAGR of 13.9% to EPS, significantly less than the past 5 years. Here are the figures for 2020 through 2025:\n(Source: Analyst projections,Seeking Alpha)\n\n\n\n\n\nEven as the company has beaten expectations for most of the past decade quarterly reporting, it's unclear if this will continue as analysts project that the company's margins will improve significantly over the next few years, as evident by sales growth expectations. This doesn't make much sense to me as more competitive pressures and third-party services like cashback, advertising revenue sharing services and more will start eating at the company's sky-high margins over the next several years.\nFor sales, analysts currently expect Visa to report a sales CAGR of 10.3% throughout the same timeframe as I mentioned earlier for EPS projections. This means that the company will increase margins as they expect EPS to grow at a higher, near 14% growth rate over the same period.\n(Source: Analyst projections,Seeking Alpha)\n\n\n\n\n\nI continue to believe that the company may beat sales expectations as we see stronger transition figures but I do not believe we'll be seeing much EPS beats if they continue to guide for margin expansion. The transitions within these industries away from high-interest products to still-high-but-lower interest products are almost certain to put a small but significant damper on margin growth.\nInvestment Conclusion\nVisa has a bright future ahead and with the roughly 15% expected EPS growth rate and the additional 2.2% buyback rate, it is nearly certain to beat the overall market return rate, which has historically been just over 10%. Even so, the company growth rate is inevitably slowing, and with rising competitive pressure and third party services expenses, I believe there needs to be more to entice long term yield investors who may not be all that optimistic about the company's ability to continue and beat the market without being paid to wait.\nThe company has more than enough cash to increase its dividend yield to over 2% while continuing the same level of share repurchasing. Investing that cash has been good for the company but has not brought even close to the same level of return that hiking dividend or increasing buyback will do.\nI remain bullish on the company's long-term prospects but am waiting to see some more of a focus on shareholder value before adding to a position.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"V":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2691,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":16,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/899725569"}
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