再论京东，我不看好京东的几个理由

沧海100

2019-04-19

$京东(JD)$京东是我一直不看好的公司，因为我不喜欢表里不一的老板，员工都不是傻子，老板表里不一时，就会政令不达，内部溜须拍马，老板就会好高骛远。

京东的净利润2018年亏损扩大，亏了25个亿，在友商不断赚钱的时候，他却越亏越多。

总资产=净资产负债。在负债缩小的情况下，总资产变多，应该赚钱了。可是亏了25亿，净资产怎么变多的呢？我猜也许是把商誉提高了

下面这张图看得出来，京东的现金流少了，

用股份换取腾讯的五年入口，我觉得这块股份的费用应该算是广告费，可是账面上并没有这块费用。如果算上这个费用，可能亏损的更难看。

在次高点出现带上下影线的十字星，通常是资金出货的表现，现在大股东高瓴撤资转投了阿里巴巴，我猜他们可能预感到了什么。

高层人事变动，员工裁员，取消快递员底薪，这些都会造成人心惶惶，凝聚力下降。所以，我建议“做空京东”

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

这种分析真的很LIW
2019-04-21
这种分析真的很LIW
说一下三大平台的体验，阿里的售后不好但是很全，京东物流好售后非常好，拼多多最早前的淘宝
- caihongtu:
  的确退款秒速到账，楼上是没用过淘宝？不过对退款信誉度有要求的
- 这种分析真的很LIW:
  没有任何一家能做到货没寄就给退款，除非你是VIP种超级VIP，这种对平台风险很大
- 沧海100:
  听说在京东购物退货很麻烦，网站上没有退货选项，要打客服电话才行，然后京东收到退货，才能退款。我在天猫退货只需点一下退货按钮，货我没有往回寄呢，款就到账了。
chasedream
2019-04-20
chasedream
拿几张老虎的图也能做分析先去把报表弄明白了吧另外我认为最傻的就是做技术分析的人
- 沧海100:
  好吧
2022年新能源是个大沟
2019-04-19
2022年新能源是个大沟
典型的偷换概念，为什么不把京东的投资研发图拿出来？京东早就盈利科，亏损是因为扩大各板块的投资，ok?
- 沧海100:
  我的图都是在老虎证券的官网上找的，至于研发投入我找不到相关资料，虽然我不知道其他电商的研发投入，但是我知道阿里巴巴的盈利也是减去研发费用的。
老郭头2020
2019-04-22
老郭头2020
虽然京东的售后服务可能要比淘宝好，甚至商品破损了京东也能退款，那是建立在高溢价基础上的，比如同一种商品，淘宝卖n元，京东可能就卖3n元，这样即使买家把商品搞破损了造成无法二次销售，那么京东也会给全额退款，京东也不赔的，也就是京东是用买家多掏的钱来弥补退货造成的损失，只可惜国内很多买家看不明白这一步
老郭头2020
2019-04-22
老郭头2020
感觉京东更像一个奢侈品店，而淘宝就像一个跳蚤市场，虽然淘宝的东西多数不是很好，但很全，各行各业的人不论想买什么，逛逛淘宝，大概率都能买到
爱发红包的虎妞
2019-04-22
爱发红包的虎妞
您好，初次加精可以获得小礼物一份，请加虎妞微信tigerbrokers领取

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":900557741,"tweetId":"900557741","gmtCreate":1555679843483,"gmtModify":1704799440823,"author":{"id":196439975206391,"idStr":"196439975206391","authorId":196439975206391,"authorIdStr":"196439975206391","name":"沧海100","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/2fcf13b5f08e281ffbb5f6dcdc638b61","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":49,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5283e64acc4c27336564dbfb32b2dc12"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab87f424d7c8de279798dcc0db6236a7"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a85443ddb4b4226515fcc76418312af"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d2443d6296281b3b51eb1f2e44f1010"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19b4eb740c8735d6dcd087113a7ae09a"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cfec1f57f9a64e949dd99770f4918c6"}],"coverImages":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5283e64acc4c27336564dbfb32b2dc12"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab87f424d7c8de279798dcc0db6236a7"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a85443ddb4b4226515fcc76418312af"}],"title":"再论京东，我不看好京东的几个理由","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>\n $京东(JD)$京东是我一直不看好的公司，因为我不喜欢表里不一的老板，员工都不是傻子，老板表里不一时，就会政令不达，内部溜须拍马，老板就会好高骛远。 <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cfec1f57f9a64e949dd99770f4918c6\"> 京东的净利润2018年亏损扩大，亏了25个亿，在友商不断赚钱的时候，他却越亏越多。 <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5283e64acc4c27336564dbfb32b2dc12\"> 总资产=净资产 负债。在负债缩小的情况下，总资产变多，应该赚钱了。可是亏了25亿，净资产怎么变多的呢？我猜也许是把商誉提高了 <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a85443ddb4b4226515fcc76418312af\"> 下面这张图看得出来，京东的现金流少了， <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d2443d6296281b3b51eb1f2e44f1010\"> 用股份换取腾讯的五年入口，我觉得这块股份的费用应该算是广告费，可是账面上并没有这块费用。如果算上这个费用，可能亏损的更难看。 在次高点出现带上下影线的十字星，通常是资金出货的表现，现在大股东高瓴撤资转投了阿里巴巴，我猜他们可能预感到了什么。 <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19b4eb740c8735d6dcd087113a7ae09a\"> 高层人事变动，员工裁员，取消快递员底薪，这些都会造成人心惶惶，凝聚力下降。所以，我建议“做空京东” <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab87f424d7c8de279798dcc0db6236a7\"> </body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>\n $京东(JD)$京东是我一直不看好的公司，因为我不喜欢表里不一的老板，员工都不是傻子，老板表里不一时，就会政令不达，内部溜须拍马，老板就会好高骛远。 <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cfec1f57f9a64e949dd99770f4918c6\"> 京东的净利润2018年亏损扩大，亏了25个亿，在友商不断赚钱的时候，他却越亏越多。 <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5283e64acc4c27336564dbfb32b2dc12\"> 总资产=净资产 负债。在负债缩小的情况下，总资产变多，应该赚钱了。可是亏了25亿，净资产怎么变多的呢？我猜也许是把商誉提高了 <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a85443ddb4b4226515fcc76418312af\"> 下面这张图看得出来，京东的现金流少了， <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d2443d6296281b3b51eb1f2e44f1010\"> 用股份换取腾讯的五年入口，我觉得这块股份的费用应该算是广告费，可是账面上并没有这块费用。如果算上这个费用，可能亏损的更难看。 在次高点出现带上下影线的十字星，通常是资金出货的表现，现在大股东高瓴撤资转投了阿里巴巴，我猜他们可能预感到了什么。 <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19b4eb740c8735d6dcd087113a7ae09a\"> 高层人事变动，员工裁员，取消快递员底薪，这些都会造成人心惶惶，凝聚力下降。所以，我建议“做空京东” <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab87f424d7c8de279798dcc0db6236a7\"> </body></html>","text":"$京东(JD)$京东是我一直不看好的公司，因为我不喜欢表里不一的老板，员工都不是傻子，老板表里不一时，就会政令不达，内部溜须拍马，老板就会好高骛远。 京东的净利润2018年亏损扩大，亏了25个亿，在友商不断赚钱的时候，他却越亏越多。 总资产=净资产 负债。在负债缩小的情况下，总资产变多，应该赚钱了。可是亏了25亿，净资产怎么变多的呢？我猜也许是把商誉提高了 下面这张图看得出来，京东的现金流少了， 用股份换取腾讯的五年入口，我觉得这块股份的费用应该算是广告费，可是账面上并没有这块费用。如果算上这个费用，可能亏损的更难看。 在次高点出现带上下影线的十字星，通常是资金出货的表现，现在大股东高瓴撤资转投了阿里巴巴，我猜他们可能预感到了什么。 高层人事变动，员工裁员，取消快递员底薪，这些都会造成人心惶惶，凝聚力下降。所以，我建议“做空京东”","highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":18,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/900557741","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":32252,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["JD"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":675,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[{"id":1499047,"commentId":"1499047","gmtCreate":1555861408288,"gmtModify":1555861408288,"authorId":3481767803854167,"author":{"id":3481767803854167,"idStr":"3481767803854167","authorId":3481767803854167,"name":"这种分析真的很LIW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":900557741,"objectIdStr":"900557741","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"说一下三大平台的体验，阿里的售后不好但是很全，京东物流好售后非常好，拼多多最早前的淘宝","text":"说一下三大平台的体验，阿里的售后不好但是很全，京东物流好售后非常好，拼多多最早前的淘宝","html":"说一下三大平台的体验，阿里的售后不好但是很全，京东物流好售后非常好，拼多多最早前的淘宝","likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"subComments":[{"id":1499328,"commentId":"1499328","gmtCreate":1555907030698,"gmtModify":1555907030698,"authorId":3503457464316146,"author":{"id":3503457464316146,"idStr":"3503457464316146","authorId":3503457464316146,"name":"caihongtu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":900557741,"objectIdStr":"900557741","type":1,"supId":1499047,"supIdStr":"1499047","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"的确退款秒速到账，楼上是没用过淘宝？不过对退款信誉度有要求的","text":"的确退款秒速到账，楼上是没用过淘宝？不过对退款信誉度有要求的","html":"的确退款秒速到账，楼上是没用过淘宝？不过对退款信誉度有要求的","disclaimerType":0},{"id":1499059,"commentId":"1499059","gmtCreate":1555865518752,"gmtModify":1555865518752,"authorId":3481767803854167,"author":{"id":3481767803854167,"idStr":"3481767803854167","authorId":3481767803854167,"name":"这种分析真的很LIW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":900557741,"objectIdStr":"900557741","type":1,"supId":1499047,"supIdStr":"1499047","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"没有任何一家能做到货没寄就给退款，除非你是VIP种超级VIP，这种对平台风险很大","text":"没有任何一家能做到货没寄就给退款，除非你是VIP种超级VIP，这种对平台风险很大","html":"没有任何一家能做到货没寄就给退款，除非你是VIP种超级VIP，这种对平台风险很大","disclaimerType":0},{"id":1499049,"commentId":"1499049","gmtCreate":1555862679954,"gmtModify":1555862679954,"authorId":196439975206391,"author":{"id":196439975206391,"idStr":"196439975206391","authorId":196439975206391,"name":"沧海100","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/2fcf13b5f08e281ffbb5f6dcdc638b61","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":900557741,"objectIdStr":"900557741","type":1,"supId":1499047,"supIdStr":"1499047","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"听说在京东购物退货很麻烦，网站上没有退货选项，要打客服电话才行，然后京东收到退货，才能退款。我在天猫退货只需点一下退货按钮，货我没有往回寄呢，款就到账了。","text":"听说在京东购物退货很麻烦，网站上没有退货选项，要打客服电话才行，然后京东收到退货，才能退款。我在天猫退货只需点一下退货按钮，货我没有往回寄呢，款就到账了。","html":"听说在京东购物退货很麻烦，网站上没有退货选项，要打客服电话才行，然后京东收到退货，才能退款。我在天猫退货只需点一下退货按钮，货我没有往回寄呢，款就到账了。","disclaimerType":0}],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0},{"id":1498554,"commentId":"1498554","gmtCreate":1555764118221,"gmtModify":1555764118221,"authorId":3518450849804840,"author":{"id":3518450849804840,"idStr":"3518450849804840","authorId":3518450849804840,"name":"chasedream","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":900557741,"objectIdStr":"900557741","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"拿几张老虎的图也能做分析 先去把报表弄明白了吧 另外我认为最傻的就是做技术分析的人","text":"拿几张老虎的图也能做分析 先去把报表弄明白了吧 另外我认为最傻的就是做技术分析的人","html":"拿几张老虎的图也能做分析 先去把报表弄明白了吧 另外我认为最傻的就是做技术分析的人","likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"subComments":[{"id":1498564,"commentId":"1498564","gmtCreate":1555766685334,"gmtModify":1555766685334,"authorId":196439975206391,"author":{"id":196439975206391,"idStr":"196439975206391","authorId":196439975206391,"name":"沧海100","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/2fcf13b5f08e281ffbb5f6dcdc638b61","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":900557741,"objectIdStr":"900557741","type":1,"supId":1498554,"supIdStr":"1498554","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"好吧","text":"好吧","html":"好吧","disclaimerType":0}],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0},{"id":1498172,"commentId":"1498172","gmtCreate":1555689469983,"gmtModify":1555689469983,"authorId":3499269696191625,"author":{"id":3499269696191625,"idStr":"3499269696191625","authorId":3499269696191625,"name":"2022年新能源是个大沟","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d216a8c6abcd4e6b98f1a805d387a3bd","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":900557741,"objectIdStr":"900557741","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"典型的偷换概念，为什么不把京东的投资研发图拿出来？京东早就盈利科，亏损是因为扩大各板块的投资，ok?","text":"典型的偷换概念，为什么不把京东的投资研发图拿出来？京东早就盈利科，亏损是因为扩大各板块的投资，ok?","html":"典型的偷换概念，为什么不把京东的投资研发图拿出来？京东早就盈利科，亏损是因为扩大各板块的投资，ok?","likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"subComments":[{"id":1498412,"commentId":"1498412","gmtCreate":1555740454907,"gmtModify":1555740454907,"authorId":196439975206391,"author":{"id":196439975206391,"idStr":"196439975206391","authorId":196439975206391,"name":"沧海100","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/2fcf13b5f08e281ffbb5f6dcdc638b61","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":900557741,"objectIdStr":"900557741","type":1,"supId":1498172,"supIdStr":"1498172","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"我的图都是在老虎证券的官网上找的，至于研发投入我找不到相关资料，虽然我不知道其他电商的研发投入，但是我知道阿里巴巴的盈利也是减去研发费用的。","text":"我的图都是在老虎证券的官网上找的，至于研发投入我找不到相关资料，虽然我不知道其他电商的研发投入，但是我知道阿里巴巴的盈利也是减去研发费用的。","html":"我的图都是在老虎证券的官网上找的，至于研发投入我找不到相关资料，虽然我不知道其他电商的研发投入，但是我知道阿里巴巴的盈利也是减去研发费用的。","disclaimerType":0}],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0},{"id":1499095,"commentId":"1499095","gmtCreate":1555887816662,"gmtModify":1555887816662,"authorId":193188115364364,"author":{"id":193188115364364,"idStr":"193188115364364","authorId":193188115364364,"name":"老郭头2020","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8516d6ab78702bdd353b1172e10f3916","vip":1,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":900557741,"objectIdStr":"900557741","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"虽然京东的售后服务可能要比淘宝好，甚至商品破损了京东也能退款，那是建立在高溢价基础上的，比如同一种商品，淘宝卖n元，京东可能就卖3n元，这样即使买家把商品搞破损了造成无法二次销售，那么京东也会给全额退款，京东也不赔的，也就是京东是用买家多掏的钱来弥补退货造成的损失，只可惜国内很多买家看不明白这一步","text":"虽然京东的售后服务可能要比淘宝好，甚至商品破损了京东也能退款，那是建立在高溢价基础上的，比如同一种商品，淘宝卖n元，京东可能就卖3n元，这样即使买家把商品搞破损了造成无法二次销售，那么京东也会给全额退款，京东也不赔的，也就是京东是用买家多掏的钱来弥补退货造成的损失，只可惜国内很多买家看不明白这一步","html":"虽然京东的售后服务可能要比淘宝好，甚至商品破损了京东也能退款，那是建立在高溢价基础上的，比如同一种商品，淘宝卖n元，京东可能就卖3n元，这样即使买家把商品搞破损了造成无法二次销售，那么京东也会给全额退款，京东也不赔的，也就是京东是用买家多掏的钱来弥补退货造成的损失，只可惜国内很多买家看不明白这一步","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0},{"id":1499091,"commentId":"1499091","gmtCreate":1555887102588,"gmtModify":1555887102588,"authorId":193188115364364,"author":{"id":193188115364364,"idStr":"193188115364364","authorId":193188115364364,"name":"老郭头2020","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8516d6ab78702bdd353b1172e10f3916","vip":1,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":900557741,"objectIdStr":"900557741","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"感觉京东更像一个奢侈品店，而淘宝就像一个跳蚤市场，虽然淘宝的东西多数不是很好，但很全，各行各业的人不论想买什么，逛逛淘宝，大概率都能买到","text":"感觉京东更像一个奢侈品店，而淘宝就像一个跳蚤市场，虽然淘宝的东西多数不是很好，但很全，各行各业的人不论想买什么，逛逛淘宝，大概率都能买到","html":"感觉京东更像一个奢侈品店，而淘宝就像一个跳蚤市场，虽然淘宝的东西多数不是很好，但很全，各行各业的人不论想买什么，逛逛淘宝，大概率都能买到","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0},{"id":1500952,"commentId":"1500952","gmtCreate":1555944319278,"gmtModify":1555944319278,"authorId":20722186463466,"author":{"id":20722186463466,"idStr":"20722186463466","authorId":20722186463466,"name":"爱发红包的虎妞","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acf27be178fbc21279d1959ce5bec4e7","vip":4,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c5ceab71416b120bab4604c0754b52a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":900557741,"objectIdStr":"900557741","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"您好，初次加精可以获得小礼物一份，请加虎妞微信tigerbrokers领取","text":"您好，初次加精可以获得小礼物一份，请加虎妞微信tigerbrokers领取","html":"您好，初次加精可以获得小礼物一份，请加虎妞微信tigerbrokers领取","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0}],"isCommentEnd":false,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/900557741"}