蹲街等幸福
2019-06-01
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冯升
2019-06-01
冯升
八月他最多就30多块
冯升
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小强你怎么了
:
我说的太通俗了 有效市场理论是说证券市场是充分有效的，风险是决定投资回报的唯一因素，市场上不存在系统性的错误定价，投资者也不能利用任何信息取得超额回报。拿这个股举例子，如果该股价格时刻有效，在上市轮番的巨大波动期间，公司所有公开和未公开的信息造成公司本身价值的变动，也应是这么大。然而公司的状况不可能在短短几周内变好变坏，股票的涨跌无疑是炒家的心理造成的
小强你怎么了
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冯升
:
大哥，有效市场理论讲的是强有效市场价格完全反应了当前已公开和未公开的所有信息，不是反应公司好坏和价值，你所谓的公司好坏更多的是说这个公司未来的发展前景，这个不是有效市场理论涉及的，况且美股市场只是中度有效。
冯升
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NoGo寻常路
:
新股不存在价值投资这一说 因为具体估值并未接受市场的检验。这才是在炒概念，在炒人造肉未来市场的预期。因为目前仅仅从当前的销售各方面数据来看支撑不起这样的市值，那市值的溢价就是来源于预期了。如果预期维持不了高增长和人造肉的广大前景，那这些溢价就会消失并反应在股价中 意味着股价暴跌回归正常价值
冯升
回复
NoGo寻常路
:
而前赴后继的对冲基金证明了，有效市场理论的缺陷。股票的价格时常偏离实际价值，因为股票价格时常出现巨大波动而公司实际情况并未发生改变。股票的价格短期内反应了投资者的情绪。人造肉不止一家，其他竞争者是否更厉害而成为巨头，而此股只是像snap之于Facebook一样，也不得而知。若要长期投资，现在不是机会。而是泡沫。
冯升
回复
NoGo寻常路
:
每年都有许多新事物，究竟最后能不能成为巨头，有很多方面因素影响。举个例子，雅虎当初收购的许多公司收购即巅峰，很多当时看起来很厉害的模式最后一塌糊涂。而当初被雅虎羞辱的谷歌，反而成长为巨头。直接导致雅虎衰落到现在 。很多新事物在当时是不容易看到他真实价值的，时间才会检验他是真的牛逼还是一坨屎。再者，股票的有效市场理论认为，股票的价格是有效的，他时时刻刻反应了公司的好坏和真实价值。
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冯升
2019-06-01
冯升
你这肯定最后是赚的
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