$标普500ETF(_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2019-08-16

$标普500ETF(SPY)$
今天讲讲什么是收益率倒挂？
长期10年期国债收益率高于短期2年期国债收益率，表明出借人不愿意出借期限更长的资金，对长远经济不看好。从以往股市崩盘的前序指标判断，倒挂指标会被用来参考目前股市是否会因为经济衰退造成崩盘。

预示崩盘的概率有多大?
但是由于最近10年美股牛市的形成并不是由于加高杠杆或者政策干预等因素，所以总体比较真实反应经济状况和上市公司管理能力。同时上市公司大力回购股票，回馈股东提高投资回报率。不同于上次美股崩盘，现在上市公司PE都是保持较低的合理区间。上市公司也不会进行过度的投资来损害其稳定的现金流表和盈利确定性。种种迹象表明，除去贸易战升级造成经济放缓的利空因素。崩盘概率还是很小。

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

Rich_M
2019-08-16
Rich_M
美股现在风险不大啊，对比一下00年科网危机、08年次贷其实还好不过现在美国的债券评级机制不知道还有没有漏洞担心还会发生以次充好的现象
- Visionhill:
  债券评级都没法做到毫无漏洞的。根据美联储表述，一切都在他们掌握之中，目前的风控是很完善的。
- 喜剧之王王王:
  还是小心为妙
佛系玩家007
2019-08-16
佛系玩家007
美股PE 根本不贵别自己吓唬自己暴跌概率没那么大
- Visionhill:
  只是贸易冲突是目前最大阻力。
- Visionhill:
  对的。现在基本面都不支持暴跌。
努力的优等生
2019-08-16
努力的优等生
是不是打错了？10年低于2年收益率？
- Visionhill:
  没错，倒挂的话长期的YTM会低于短期的YTM.
我是韭菜别忽悠我
2019-08-16
我是韭菜别忽悠我
有一部电影叫大空头英文叫THE BIG SHORT 炒股必看经典推荐大家去看一下
红星高照
2019-08-16
红星高照
收益率倒挂基本明白了，谢谢

发表看法

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英文叫THE BIG SHORT 炒股必看经典 推荐大家去看一下","text":"有一部电影叫大空头 英文叫THE BIG SHORT 炒股必看经典 推荐大家去看一下","html":"有一部电影叫大空头 英文叫THE BIG SHORT 炒股必看经典 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