807的个人主页 - 老虎社区

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2021-02-06

说的太好了

傅盛:你对这个世界的认知，能每年翻一倍吗？

2021-01-28

$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$非洲股也挺猛的

2021-01-23

为啥持仓里不显示呢

2021-01-15

$老虎证券(TIGR)$谁跟我一样，9块多就卖了，然后默默看着他一直涨

2021-01-14

$台积电(TSM)$为什么模拟选的都是如此优质股

2021-01-14

$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$怎么就买了个模拟

2021-01-11

$蔚来(NIO)$以前只有一个贾跃亭，现在感觉到处都是贾跃亭，到处都是乐视网

2021-01-05

$老虎证券(TIGR)$实在看不下去了，你们呢

2020-12-22

$Editas Medicine, Inc.(EDIT)$可以是模拟

2020-12-15

$特斯拉(TSLA)$开始逐步做空

2020-10-30

$蔚来(NIO)$严重泡沫还不让做空，资本操作，车破公司破，可不可以好好做车

2020-07-08

$蔚来(NIO)$不让做空怪不得一直涨

2020-07-08

$蔚来(NIO)$呼叫空军

2020-07-06

$蔚来(NIO)$没人做空吗？可怜的瑞幸咖啡

2020-07-03

$蔚来(NIO)$还能回到2元吗

2020-06-23

$华虹摩通零八购A.C(14764)$出了

2020-06-18

$中兴通讯(00763)$握草，踏空

2020-05-20

$沛嘉医疗-B(09996)$资本炒作，空壳公司，市值不觉得高吗

2020-05-18

$康希诺生物-B(06185)$营收只有一千万的破公司市值达到400亿，疯了疯了

2020-03-12

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$干的漂亮

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19:31","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"傅盛:你对这个世界的认知，能每年翻一倍吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2103196019","media":"易简财经","summary":"每天看着一个新奇的世界，充满好奇心，过一段时间，变得迷茫。你知道，它可达。当时我认为，安全不可能做赢。在这个封闭式问题下，做的所有努力，已经把难度极具降低。金山网络，要成为全球最优秀的互联网公司。我相信自然规律，一定25岁。小米成立时，我认为雷总把这个问题想的非常深刻了。这只是前进的内在动力。现在几乎销量第一。你能不能拿下一半市场。如果能够做到，6个月能","content":"<html><body><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/sinakd2021116s/287/w1080h807/20210116/2cba-khstaxs7450735.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p><font>创业过程中，开放式变成封闭式问题的转换能力，是我们真正最需要的能力的核心。</font></p><p><font>都说创业是九死一生，不允许你犯低级错误，否则会成为创业失败的导火索。创业者如何避免在创业路上犯错误，成为一个好的CEO呢?</font></p><p><font>今天这篇文章来自于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMCM\">猎豹移动</a>CEO傅盛的分享，能让你在创业路上有更多思考。\"天太高，海太蓝，每天面临无数多选择。\"</font></p><div><font><font><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/sinakd2021116s/418/w1080h138/20210116/abff-khstaxs7450845.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></font></font></div><p><font><font>创业太自由怎么办？</font></font></p><p>我记得，刚从<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QIHU\">奇虎360</a>出来时，给自己总结两句，“天高任鸟飞，海空凭鱼跃”。每天看着一个新奇的世界，充满好奇心，过一段时间，变得迷茫。天太高，海太蓝，每天面临无数多选择。</p><p><font>天天看着人家起来，每天都在想，我的想法是不是有问题，是不是有可能做不到。</font></p><p><font><font><font>后来终于总结出来，创业最大的难度就是太自由了，自由到你很容易失去方向。</font></font></font></p><p><font>当时，网上有一个帖子，经常说，中国人从造原子弹到氢弹，只花了几年时间，比美国人、苏联人都快，但他说，其实第一个造原子弹和后面再造出原子弹，难度是不一样的。天上和地下的差距。</font></p><p><font>因为没有做出原子弹时，这件事能不能做成是不知道的。你没有这条路径。当别人做出来后，你再重新造一颗。你知道，它可达。你把范围集聚缩小了，变成了工程性问题。而开始，只是探索性问题。两个问题的难度，截然不同。</font></p><p><font>我从奇虎出来，第一次见到雷军，他问我一个问题，“360是怎样做成的？”我说，带了四个人，做了上亿用户。其实我连公司例会都不参加。因为太小。没人让我参加。我离开时，360在PC端全中国占有率已超过50%。</font></p><p><font>接着，雷军继续问了我一个问题，“在这件事情上，你的功劳大？还是周鸿祎功劳大？”我当时脑子转了一下，我想，他为什么问这个问题。后来我说，周鸿祎功劳大。</font></p><p><font>从没有广告到每天一百万下载，做到全中国50%占有。说实话，当时出走，我内心多少有点负气。但，随着时间的流逝，经验的积累，我慢慢发现，自己的答案是对的。</font></p><p><font>坦率地讲，安全这个方向不是我想的。当时我认为，安全不可能做赢。当然，也没有人认为可能做赢。瑞星、金山，几百人团队。我们是几个人。</font></p><p><font>当时公司说，你先做一款口碑软件再说。尽管，方向没有那么居功至伟的前瞻性，但给了你一个封闭式问题。就做一款免费安全软件。在这个封闭式问题下，做的所有努力，已经把难度极具降低。</font></p><p><font><font><font>没有方向时，你觉得都是方向。来回探索，大量时间被消耗。但给你一个固定性问题，叫封闭式、有区间问题，难度其实大幅度下降。</font></font></font></p><p><font>虽然想出了，很多产品点子，但一个选择的重要性，其实远远大于过后做出的很多努力。</font></p><p><font>这是我对那个问题的思考。他给了我一个收敛性问题。在这个收敛性问题下，又给你提供人力、财务、公司构架。</font></p><p><font>虽然没有推广费用，但不需要担心人员工资，不需要担心很多让你游离于产品之外的事情。只需安安心心做产品经理。正好机会来了，它变得很大。</font></p><p><font>后来，我越来越觉得，把一个问题变收敛，是很困难的一种状态。最近我在读一本书，叫《爱因斯坦传》。虽然那是个物理学的盛世时代，但爱因斯坦为什么能在那么多人情况下脱颖而出呢？</font></p><p><font>其中一个描述让我印象深刻。爱因斯坦很年轻就在想象一个场景。跟着一束光旅行会看到什么？</font></p><p><font><font><font>由这个场景不断在大脑里思考。逆向化思考。把物理学上极其开放的探索，变成非常收敛的、具体化的形象，思考出了相对论。</font></font></font></p><p><font>还有一个场景。从下降的电梯里，会感受到什么？我突然发现，把一个开放式的问题，变成一个封闭式场景思考，可以使一个人的思维能力有巨大提升。</font></p><p><font><font><font>我想说的是，我们在创业过程中，可能最难的就是把自由度变成一个具体问题，变成一个具体目标。</font></font></font></p><p><font>因为，我们在创业的时候，总是信心满满的认为，我要改变世界，我要成为最牛的人，我要做最好的自己。</font></p><p><font>我也一直用这种方式激励自己。一直到2010年，最困难的时候，当时在珠海，被对手强烈打压。产品和内部整合上，遇到很多问题。我才有了新的思考。</font></p><p><font>有一个记者去珠海采访我。问，你想把金山网络做成怎样的公司？我说要全力以赴的做成一家超牛逼的公司。他说这个不够。他说你知道吗？他举了对手的例子。</font></p><p><font>比如那个人，看着他天天打这个打那个，但他一直想成为这个行业前几名，甚至大佬。他会全力以赴，把一个问题，一个方向，变成一个目标。</font></p><p><font>听了这句话以后，我突然意识到，自己以前很多思考，是错误的。因为，以前都在想，如何做最好自己，如何变牛逼，看上去有目标，却把“状态”误认为“目标”，甚至觉得自己做的都是对的。</font></p><p><font>我经常问团队，这件事为什么没做好？他说我已经全力以赴，我很努力，每天都在认真工作。我说这些都不是可以被证明的过程。你误把自己开放式的心理和工作状态，当成了工作和前进的目标。</font></p><p><font><font><font>降低创业难度：把一个开放式转变为封闭式问题。</font></font></font></p><p><font>什么是封闭式问题呢？</font></p><p><font>后来，我开始思考。金山网络，要成为全球最优秀的互联网公司。我发现不够。我又开始思考。我说要变成国际化的公司。还是不够。我说要变成中国公司里移动端国际化最好的公司。仍然不够。</font></p><p><font>最后变成一个封闭式的问题，说起来没那么有情怀。我说，成为国际上移动端的360。</font></p><p><font>由这个问题开始，我想到，找出Clean Master的突破点。把Clean Master变成一个封闭式问题。测算全球6亿覆盖用户，每天想想，我们怎么能做到。</font></p><p><font>最近，我把这个问题又变成了一个更具像的问题。在全球移动互联网公司里，变成全球TOP3移动广告平台。</font></p><p><font>当然，这没有工匠精神，好奇心改变世界，听起来那么有情怀。这是个封闭式目标。但当你在一个封闭式目标下去做用户获取，做大数据分析，做到广告信息有效分发等等。一下变得清晰很多。</font></p><div><font><font><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/sinakd2021116s/418/w1080h138/20210116/b4d0-khstaxs7450846.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></font></font></div><p><font><font>如何做好一个<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V03.SI\">创业公司</a>CEO？</font></font></p><p><font><font><font>我认为，最核心问题，就是能把创业情怀变成具体问题。这个问题越具体越好。</font></font></font></p><p><font><font><font>人和人之间最大的界限就是思维模式。</font></font></font><font>思维模式看起来很简单，但你要突破这层窗户纸，难度比你想象还大。我一直在内部跟团队说，近几年，我可能是观察雷军最近的人。</font></p><p><font>但我还是要问大家，45岁雷军的精力旺盛，还是25岁雷军的精力旺盛？</font></p><p><font>我相信自然规律，一定25岁。再问，十几年前，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03888\">金山软件</a>在整个行业里的技术、人才优势大？还是今天小米的人才、技术优势大？为什么金山和小米，今天差距如此之大？</font></p><p><font>这个问题我跟雷总探讨过很多回。问题在于，金山当年看到什么是机会就做什么。他一直没把这个问题收敛起来。</font></p><p><font><font><font>全力以赴，每个领域都做。做最好的自己，最好的公司，民族软件的旗帜。大量的资源，消耗在不同战线。</font></font></font></p><p><font>小米成立时，我认为雷总把这个问题想的非常深刻了。一年卖一亿台手机就是伟大公司。当然，还有很多互联网精神。</font></p><p><font>今天不谈情怀。忽悠创业者最大的问题就是情怀。如果有情怀，工匠精神，就能改变世界。如果创业这么简单，所有人都可以上艺术学院接受两年培训，全是优秀的创业者了。</font></p><p><font>但，创业不是这样。为了包装，让自己更快传播出去，被更多人认知，被很多没有创业的人崇敬，好像蛮是羡慕的眼神，这样可以。</font></p><p><font><font><font>一旦回归到创业基本点，就不要轻则谈生态，动则谈改变世界，梦想这些东西了。这只是前进的内在动力。</font></font></font></p><div><font><font><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/sinakd2021116s/418/w1080h138/20210116/43bd-khstaxs7450946.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></font></font></div><p><font><font><font>创业者核心的能力是什么？</font></font></font></p><p>创业，要像做一道数学题一样。</p><p><font><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>上有一款体重秤，叫云麦好轻。以前猎豹一个同事做的。现在几乎销量第一。当时做到一个月六千台时，他找我讨教。他说傅总接下来怎么做，智能硬件好火，大家都在健身，我也在做社区，要把这个链条做起来。</font></p><p><font>我说别扯了。我说你把创业变成非常简单的问题。体重秤一年多少出货。你能不能拿下一半市场。</font></p><p><font>今天六千台，什么时候能够做到十万台。没有做到前，全力以赴做。用价格、用设计、用所有东西，12个月之内看能不能做到？如果能够做到，6个月能不能做到？6个月能做到，需要哪些资源，能不能像一道数学题那样列在那里？</font></p><p><font><font><font>想清楚目标，然后立刻做。</font></font></font></p><p><font>我问，做到六千台，为什么做不上去。他说，当时有一个配件出问题，生产没跟上。我说为什么不是多条生产线？为什么不是每个配件上都有这种能力？反向推演问题，创业的目标感就会变得极清晰。</font></p><p><font>路上，我跟泉灵姐姐也讨论这个问题。她说，其实跟她的成长路径是一样的。</font></p><p><font>高人总是高人一筹。最初想做最好的主持人，后来发现怎么是最好呢？你觉得最好，人家不觉得最好。她开始把问题一个一个变成封闭式的。</font></p><p><font>比如对着镜子说话和对着人说话是一样的。花几个月时间在自己内心做一个衡量。比如说一段两分钟的话，不看表，标准的两分钟，正负不差5秒钟。她说变成这样的问题之后，就会使你的整个事情开始变简单，否则你就是茫茫行舟。</font></p><p><font>关于这种思考模式，我跟很多同事包括创业者聊过。很多时候，我们都会没有这样一种思维模式。</font></p><p><font>雷总每次跟我交流，他很喜欢做一道算术题。那时候的雷军比现在要有精力，要旺盛的多，就是因为思维模式的差异。雷总做小米时，思维模式上了一级。</font></p><p><font>一年一亿台。五年前，他就冲着这个封闭式目标一步一步走。当时<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>大概快到一亿。那么，中国有没有可能出一家一年卖一亿台手机的厂商呢？如果做到，对手机厂商产生怎样的影响？如果做到了，对电商产生怎样的影响？</font></p><p><font><font><font>反复就一个封闭式问题，来回推演。一旦具备这样的能力，创业就开始变得简单。虽然它不再像当初那么壮烈激烈，那么有情怀，但它开始变得有解。</font></font></font></p><p><font><font><font>有解是最难的一件事情。</font></font></font></p><p><font><font><font>所以，CEO的核心是树立一个简单可行的目标。树立一个越简单越聚焦的目标，越好。</font></font></font></p><p><font>尽管这个目标，可能在过程中，不断变化。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>的口号是“让天下没有难做的生意”，但我觉得，他的封闭式问题是什么时候销售能够超过<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">沃尔玛</a>。以及怎么超过沃尔玛，用怎样的方式超过沃尔玛。</font></p><p><font>有一个词叫迎刃而解。我一直在思考刃在哪里？</font></p><p><font>当猎豹想清楚要做国际化移动版免费安全软件时，变成全球超过6亿月度活跃用户时，变成全球TOP级别广告平台时，这个问题比“做最好的自己”、“全力以赴”要简单得多。</font></p><p><font>今天，我开始慢慢体会到，那种你想清楚一个问题，执行就开始变得简单的过程，而不是一种强烈依赖于强大的执行的状态。</font></p><p><font><font><font>创业过程中，开放式变成封闭式问题的转换能力，是我们真正最需要的能力的核心。</font></font></font></p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/sinakd2021116s/418/w1080h138/20210116/aa5a-khstaxs7450945.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p><font><font><font>如何进行格局思考？</font></font></font></p><p><font>人的认知差距，会迅速拉大。过去四年，我们公司保持着每年150%的增长。但，你对这个世界的认知，你的判断能力，能保持每年翻一倍增长吗？其实非常难。这就是用固态模式做事情。</font></p><p><font>以前，对战略想得少，对风口也想得比较少。我记得，周鸿祎给我传达过一句话叫“只要坚持一个点做下去，就会有机会”。</font></p><p><font>后来发现，当时的互联网是严重的稀缺经济。那个时候，就像西部大开发，遍地是机会。只要你想做一件事情，活下来就是王道。所以，剩者为王。</font></p><p><font>今天不一样了，红海竞争了。这种竞争态势下，真的得认真思考。每个点不能单做，或许做下去有机会，但人家已经布局重兵。或者有很多事情，超出了你的认知。这就要求你有格局和破局结合的思考模式。</font></p><p><font><font><font>我以前讲过一个战略三板斧：预测、破局点和ALL in。其实，这代创业者，讲单点的故事更多，但格局思考少了。</font></font></font></p><p><font><font><font>格局思考是一种思维习惯。</font></font></font></p><p><font>至少像我这样草莽出身的人，以前想的更多是一个 小的点怎么撬动。但整个大行业、大风口、大机会的思考不够。看到的都是一些热点。想到的都是一些兴奋点。</font></p><p><font>这个时代，变迁之快，使得一个所谓小的兴奋点，在红海竞争中根本微不足道。</font></p><p><font><font><font>第一，很难形成真正的爆发性。只有稀缺时，才有可能有爆发机会。第二，很难形成突围作用。对手对你严防死守，你只稍微做一些亮点，很快就被扑灭了。</font></font></font></p><p><font>如果换作五年前，我可能不是这么思考问题。那个时候，就觉得360免费做成了，再做一个差不多的，也能做得好。</font></p><p><font>但现在，我会认为，有一些关键词，一定要去琢磨。如果每个人都在讲这些词，你就把这些词放在脑子里经常琢磨。</font></p><p><font>我曾经跟苹果前CEO交流过，他认为一把手的两种能力非常关键。</font></p><p><font><font><font>一方面，能跳出来，看到行业之间各种变化的机会，另一方面，又能深入进去，看到变化的连接点，能把这个点做到足够极致。</font></font></font></p><p><font>当这两个方面之间产生交叉，一个时代要开启了，这就是巨大的行业机会。两者缺一不可。</font></p><p><font>这也是为什么我一直强调，有格局思考，才有战略认知。</font><font><font>而战略的核心，就是对清晰目标持续推进的路线图。</font></font></p><p><font>有一次我跟<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>总裁Martin聊，我说，今日头条挺猛的，抢你们朋友圈的流量，你们得重视。他就苦笑一下说，是，但你知道互联网就像武林大赛，你有一群人，却打不过一个高手。关键点就在于两种认知的比拼。</font></p><p><font>后来我反思，公司高速成长，其实是一群人的成长。而这群人的认知，其实没有像业务成长那么快。你给他很重要的位置，他对这个行业的认知最后就代表着这家公司的认知，最后就出问题了。</font></p><p><font>我在清理行业干了十多年，包括以前能做360和猎豹清理大师，在清理这个点上，用户怎么使用手机这个点上，我的认知肯定穿透了全行业。所以，这个点上，我能找到机会。</font></p><p><font>今天在互联网公司，你得在一个领域，在这个认知点，有你非常认可的人，且能真的理解深入的人，去担当重任。</font></p><p><font>最怕让做报告人的认知取代行业的认知。而做报告的人，一般未必有行业有深入理解。最后造成，看上去投了很多人，但整个认知维度不够深。投了很多资源，沦为无效资源。</font></p><p><font>所以遇到一些困难，都不是问题。最怕遇到困难后，你觉得事实就是这样，而不去更新认知。这才要命。</font></p><p><font>最后，我想说，创业就是九死一生。创业要做的是一个庞大的系统工程。几个亮点，根本不足为道。而其中只要一两个盲点，就导致整个事情崩塌。</font></p><p><font><font><font>时代变化之快，竞争之激烈。对创业者关于各个维度的思考，要求越来越高。</font></font></font></p><p><font><font><font>创业者要多从内心出发，反思自己认知上的差距。即使勤奋，也要聪明的勤奋。关键在于，勤奋只是基础。</font></font></font></p> <div></div><div></div><div></div></body></html>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>傅盛:你对这个世界的认知，能每年翻一倍吗？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n傅盛:你对这个世界的认知，能每年翻一倍吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-01-16 19:31 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://k.sina.cn/article_6162941440_16f57060001900vto2.html><strong>易简财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>创业过程中，开放式变成封闭式问题的转换能力，是我们真正最需要的能力的核心。都说创业是九死一生，不允许你犯低级错误，否则会成为创业失败的导火索。创业者如何避免在创业路上犯错误，成为一个好的CEO呢?今天这篇文章来自于猎豹移动CEO傅盛的分享，能让你在创业路上有更多思考。\"天太高，海太蓝，每天面临无数多选择。\"创业太自由怎么办？我记得，刚从奇虎360出来时，给自己总结两句，“天高任鸟飞，海空凭鱼跃”。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://k.sina.cn/article_6162941440_16f57060001900vto2.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/daaa666333c3b9bf0b940ffed4c1c369","relate_stocks":{"CMCM":"猎豹移动"},"source_url":"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://k.sina.cn/article_6162941440_16f57060001900vto2.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2103196019","content_text":"创业过程中，开放式变成封闭式问题的转换能力，是我们真正最需要的能力的核心。都说创业是九死一生，不允许你犯低级错误，否则会成为创业失败的导火索。创业者如何避免在创业路上犯错误，成为一个好的CEO呢?今天这篇文章来自于猎豹移动CEO傅盛的分享，能让你在创业路上有更多思考。\"天太高，海太蓝，每天面临无数多选择。\"创业太自由怎么办？我记得，刚从奇虎360出来时，给自己总结两句，“天高任鸟飞，海空凭鱼跃”。每天看着一个新奇的世界，充满好奇心，过一段时间，变得迷茫。天太高，海太蓝，每天面临无数多选择。天天看着人家起来，每天都在想，我的想法是不是有问题，是不是有可能做不到。后来终于总结出来，创业最大的难度就是太自由了，自由到你很容易失去方向。当时，网上有一个帖子，经常说，中国人从造原子弹到氢弹，只花了几年时间，比美国人、苏联人都快，但他说，其实第一个造原子弹和后面再造出原子弹，难度是不一样的。天上和地下的差距。因为没有做出原子弹时，这件事能不能做成是不知道的。你没有这条路径。当别人做出来后，你再重新造一颗。你知道，它可达。你把范围集聚缩小了，变成了工程性问题。而开始，只是探索性问题。两个问题的难度，截然不同。我从奇虎出来，第一次见到雷军，他问我一个问题，“360是怎样做成的？”我说，带了四个人，做了上亿用户。其实我连公司例会都不参加。因为太小。没人让我参加。我离开时，360在PC端全中国占有率已超过50%。接着，雷军继续问了我一个问题，“在这件事情上，你的功劳大？还是周鸿祎功劳大？”我当时脑子转了一下，我想，他为什么问这个问题。后来我说，周鸿祎功劳大。从没有广告到每天一百万下载，做到全中国50%占有。说实话，当时出走，我内心多少有点负气。但，随着时间的流逝，经验的积累，我慢慢发现，自己的答案是对的。坦率地讲，安全这个方向不是我想的。当时我认为，安全不可能做赢。当然，也没有人认为可能做赢。瑞星、金山，几百人团队。我们是几个人。当时公司说，你先做一款口碑软件再说。尽管，方向没有那么居功至伟的前瞻性，但给了你一个封闭式问题。就做一款免费安全软件。在这个封闭式问题下，做的所有努力，已经把难度极具降低。没有方向时，你觉得都是方向。来回探索，大量时间被消耗。但给你一个固定性问题，叫封闭式、有区间问题，难度其实大幅度下降。虽然想出了，很多产品点子，但一个选择的重要性，其实远远大于过后做出的很多努力。这是我对那个问题的思考。他给了我一个收敛性问题。在这个收敛性问题下，又给你提供人力、财务、公司构架。虽然没有推广费用，但不需要担心人员工资，不需要担心很多让你游离于产品之外的事情。只需安安心心做产品经理。正好机会来了，它变得很大。后来，我越来越觉得，把一个问题变收敛，是很困难的一种状态。最近我在读一本书，叫《爱因斯坦传》。虽然那是个物理学的盛世时代，但爱因斯坦为什么能在那么多人情况下脱颖而出呢？其中一个描述让我印象深刻。爱因斯坦很年轻就在想象一个场景。跟着一束光旅行会看到什么？由这个场景不断在大脑里思考。逆向化思考。把物理学上极其开放的探索，变成非常收敛的、具体化的形象，思考出了相对论。还有一个场景。从下降的电梯里，会感受到什么？我突然发现，把一个开放式的问题，变成一个封闭式场景思考，可以使一个人的思维能力有巨大提升。我想说的是，我们在创业过程中，可能最难的就是把自由度变成一个具体问题，变成一个具体目标。因为，我们在创业的时候，总是信心满满的认为，我要改变世界，我要成为最牛的人，我要做最好的自己。我也一直用这种方式激励自己。一直到2010年，最困难的时候，当时在珠海，被对手强烈打压。产品和内部整合上，遇到很多问题。我才有了新的思考。有一个记者去珠海采访我。问，你想把金山网络做成怎样的公司？我说要全力以赴的做成一家超牛逼的公司。他说这个不够。他说你知道吗？他举了对手的例子。比如那个人，看着他天天打这个打那个，但他一直想成为这个行业前几名，甚至大佬。他会全力以赴，把一个问题，一个方向，变成一个目标。听了这句话以后，我突然意识到，自己以前很多思考，是错误的。因为，以前都在想，如何做最好自己，如何变牛逼，看上去有目标，却把“状态”误认为“目标”，甚至觉得自己做的都是对的。我经常问团队，这件事为什么没做好？他说我已经全力以赴，我很努力，每天都在认真工作。我说这些都不是可以被证明的过程。你误把自己开放式的心理和工作状态，当成了工作和前进的目标。降低创业难度：把一个开放式转变为封闭式问题。什么是封闭式问题呢？后来，我开始思考。金山网络，要成为全球最优秀的互联网公司。我发现不够。我又开始思考。我说要变成国际化的公司。还是不够。我说要变成中国公司里移动端国际化最好的公司。仍然不够。最后变成一个封闭式的问题，说起来没那么有情怀。我说，成为国际上移动端的360。由这个问题开始，我想到，找出Clean Master的突破点。把Clean Master变成一个封闭式问题。测算全球6亿覆盖用户，每天想想，我们怎么能做到。最近，我把这个问题又变成了一个更具像的问题。在全球移动互联网公司里，变成全球TOP3移动广告平台。当然，这没有工匠精神，好奇心改变世界，听起来那么有情怀。这是个封闭式目标。但当你在一个封闭式目标下去做用户获取，做大数据分析，做到广告信息有效分发等等。一下变得清晰很多。如何做好一个创业公司CEO？我认为，最核心问题，就是能把创业情怀变成具体问题。这个问题越具体越好。人和人之间最大的界限就是思维模式。思维模式看起来很简单，但你要突破这层窗户纸，难度比你想象还大。我一直在内部跟团队说，近几年，我可能是观察雷军最近的人。但我还是要问大家，45岁雷军的精力旺盛，还是25岁雷军的精力旺盛？我相信自然规律，一定25岁。再问，十几年前，金山软件在整个行业里的技术、人才优势大？还是今天小米的人才、技术优势大？为什么金山和小米，今天差距如此之大？这个问题我跟雷总探讨过很多回。问题在于，金山当年看到什么是机会就做什么。他一直没把这个问题收敛起来。全力以赴，每个领域都做。做最好的自己，最好的公司，民族软件的旗帜。大量的资源，消耗在不同战线。小米成立时，我认为雷总把这个问题想的非常深刻了。一年卖一亿台手机就是伟大公司。当然，还有很多互联网精神。今天不谈情怀。忽悠创业者最大的问题就是情怀。如果有情怀，工匠精神，就能改变世界。如果创业这么简单，所有人都可以上艺术学院接受两年培训，全是优秀的创业者了。但，创业不是这样。为了包装，让自己更快传播出去，被更多人认知，被很多没有创业的人崇敬，好像蛮是羡慕的眼神，这样可以。一旦回归到创业基本点，就不要轻则谈生态，动则谈改变世界，梦想这些东西了。这只是前进的内在动力。创业者核心的能力是什么？创业，要像做一道数学题一样。京东上有一款体重秤，叫云麦好轻。以前猎豹一个同事做的。现在几乎销量第一。当时做到一个月六千台时，他找我讨教。他说傅总接下来怎么做，智能硬件好火，大家都在健身，我也在做社区，要把这个链条做起来。我说别扯了。我说你把创业变成非常简单的问题。体重秤一年多少出货。你能不能拿下一半市场。今天六千台，什么时候能够做到十万台。没有做到前，全力以赴做。用价格、用设计、用所有东西，12个月之内看能不能做到？如果能够做到，6个月能不能做到？6个月能做到，需要哪些资源，能不能像一道数学题那样列在那里？想清楚目标，然后立刻做。我问，做到六千台，为什么做不上去。他说，当时有一个配件出问题，生产没跟上。我说为什么不是多条生产线？为什么不是每个配件上都有这种能力？反向推演问题，创业的目标感就会变得极清晰。路上，我跟泉灵姐姐也讨论这个问题。她说，其实跟她的成长路径是一样的。高人总是高人一筹。最初想做最好的主持人，后来发现怎么是最好呢？你觉得最好，人家不觉得最好。她开始把问题一个一个变成封闭式的。比如对着镜子说话和对着人说话是一样的。花几个月时间在自己内心做一个衡量。比如说一段两分钟的话，不看表，标准的两分钟，正负不差5秒钟。她说变成这样的问题之后，就会使你的整个事情开始变简单，否则你就是茫茫行舟。关于这种思考模式，我跟很多同事包括创业者聊过。很多时候，我们都会没有这样一种思维模式。雷总每次跟我交流，他很喜欢做一道算术题。那时候的雷军比现在要有精力，要旺盛的多，就是因为思维模式的差异。雷总做小米时，思维模式上了一级。一年一亿台。五年前，他就冲着这个封闭式目标一步一步走。当时三星和苹果大概快到一亿。那么，中国有没有可能出一家一年卖一亿台手机的厂商呢？如果做到，对手机厂商产生怎样的影响？如果做到了，对电商产生怎样的影响？反复就一个封闭式问题，来回推演。一旦具备这样的能力，创业就开始变得简单。虽然它不再像当初那么壮烈激烈，那么有情怀，但它开始变得有解。有解是最难的一件事情。所以，CEO的核心是树立一个简单可行的目标。树立一个越简单越聚焦的目标，越好。尽管这个目标，可能在过程中，不断变化。阿里巴巴的口号是“让天下没有难做的生意”，但我觉得，他的封闭式问题是什么时候销售能够超过沃尔玛。以及怎么超过沃尔玛，用怎样的方式超过沃尔玛。有一个词叫迎刃而解。我一直在思考刃在哪里？当猎豹想清楚要做国际化移动版免费安全软件时，变成全球超过6亿月度活跃用户时，变成全球TOP级别广告平台时，这个问题比“做最好的自己”、“全力以赴”要简单得多。今天，我开始慢慢体会到，那种你想清楚一个问题，执行就开始变得简单的过程，而不是一种强烈依赖于强大的执行的状态。创业过程中，开放式变成封闭式问题的转换能力，是我们真正最需要的能力的核心。如何进行格局思考？人的认知差距，会迅速拉大。过去四年，我们公司保持着每年150%的增长。但，你对这个世界的认知，你的判断能力，能保持每年翻一倍增长吗？其实非常难。这就是用固态模式做事情。以前，对战略想得少，对风口也想得比较少。我记得，周鸿祎给我传达过一句话叫“只要坚持一个点做下去，就会有机会”。后来发现，当时的互联网是严重的稀缺经济。那个时候，就像西部大开发，遍地是机会。只要你想做一件事情，活下来就是王道。所以，剩者为王。今天不一样了，红海竞争了。这种竞争态势下，真的得认真思考。每个点不能单做，或许做下去有机会，但人家已经布局重兵。或者有很多事情，超出了你的认知。这就要求你有格局和破局结合的思考模式。我以前讲过一个战略三板斧：预测、破局点和ALL in。其实，这代创业者，讲单点的故事更多，但格局思考少了。格局思考是一种思维习惯。至少像我这样草莽出身的人，以前想的更多是一个 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