Jason1205的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Jason1205

Jason1205

财不入急门，股不买偏门！

IP属地：广东

71关注

35粉丝

0主题

0勋章

11-13

$Pagaya Technologies Ltd.(PGY)$ 财报不是很好吗？怎么又开始大跌？这种股可获得的信息太少，还是少碰为好。

11-11

$Tron Inc.(TRON)$ 孙哥费那么大劲搞个壳就只是为了套现1亿个trx吗？那样还不如直接在二级市场出售。格局不至于这么小吧，好好搞的话注入点波场区块链的资源进来，财富更上一层楼不好吗。

10-13

$Tron Inc.(TRON)$ 孙哥，快起来做事了。

09-04

$Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)$ 跌成这样，这个股究竟有什么大利空呢？

08-13

胜负已分出吧

07-18

哪来的比特币

07-18

$SharpLink Gaming(SBET)$ 比其他几家率先释放增发利空，企稳开始新一轮向上👆

07-18

靴子落地

抱歉，原内容已删除

07-13

SEBT现在25.3万枚了，排名第一。

抱歉，原内容已删除

07-11

$SharpLink Gaming(SBET)$ 现阶段公司一定要保持每周都有ETH购入，最好每周两次。

07-10

$SharpLink Gaming(SBET)$ 公司现在要做的就是在ETH低位加快买币速度，尽快达到50万枚。

07-01

$SRM Entertainment, Inc.(SRM)$ 股票代码咋还不更名呢？

06-28

$SRM Entertainment, Inc.(SRM)$ 交割的时候4.2亿股会一次性进来吗？

04-07

今天补

03-24

$Strategy(MSTR)$ 近日，国际货币基金组织（IMF）有一项备受瞩目的重要举措。其发布了最新的《国际收支手册》第七版（BPM7），在全球金融领域引起广泛关注。此次更新的一大亮点，便是将比特币（BTC）等加密货币正式纳入国际收支平衡表。

03-11

$Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)$ 没有获利盘了，到底了吧

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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跌成这样，这个股究竟有什么大利空呢？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/474823278576048","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":800,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":467174414946336,"gmtCreate":1755073369216,"gmtModify":1755073371190,"author":{"id":"262190804341046","authorId":"262190804341046","name":"Jason1205","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a22c3af3bb938bf74c151660df1d68dd","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"262190804341046","authorIdStr":"262190804341046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"胜负已分出吧","listText":"胜负已分出吧","text":"胜负已分出吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/467174414946336","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":987,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":457915115077728,"gmtCreate":1752832937919,"gmtModify":1752833654810,"author":{"id":"262190804341046","authorId":"262190804341046","name":"Jason1205","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a22c3af3bb938bf74c151660df1d68dd","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"262190804341046","authorIdStr":"262190804341046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"哪来的比特币","listText":"哪来的比特币","text":"哪来的比特币","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/457915115077728","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":774,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":457780295991512,"gmtCreate":1752799824297,"gmtModify":1752807788687,"author":{"id":"262190804341046","authorId":"262190804341046","name":"Jason1205","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a22c3af3bb938bf74c151660df1d68dd","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"262190804341046","authorIdStr":"262190804341046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TRON\">$Tron Inc.(TRON)$</a> 孙哥费那么大劲搞个壳就只是为了套现1亿个trx吗？那样还不如直接在二级市场出售。格局不至于这么小吧，好好搞的话注入点波场区块链的资源进来，财富更上一层楼不好吗。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TRON\">$Tron Inc.(TRON)$</a> 孙哥费那么大劲搞个壳就只是为了套现1亿个trx吗？那样还不如直接在二级市场出售。格局不至于这么小吧，好好搞的话注入点波场区块链的资源进来，财富更上一层楼不好吗。","text":"$Tron Inc.(TRON)$ 孙哥费那么大劲搞个壳就只是为了套现1亿个trx吗？那样还不如直接在二级市场出售。格局不至于这么小吧，好好搞的话注入点波场区块链的资源进来，财富更上一层楼不好吗。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/499020228133744","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":618,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3493163577009875","authorId":"3493163577009875","name":"飞哥非哥","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be30ffbb0d97fa29b176343faa31b553","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3493163577009875","authorIdStr":"3493163577009875"},"content":"应该会把火币交易所弄进来吧，那样的收益才能做大市值。","text":"应该会把火币交易所弄进来吧，那样的收益才能做大市值。","html":"应该会把火币交易所弄进来吧，那样的收益才能做大市值。"},{"author":{"id":"3567082927316751","authorId":"3567082927316751","name":"Slow is fast 全红馋","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16b1e8df25ebce54ae11436506016cda","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3567082927316751","authorIdStr":"3567082927316751"},"content":"孙割在下一盘大棋[财迷]","text":"孙割在下一盘大棋[财迷]","html":"孙割在下一盘大棋[财迷]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":358475375,"gmtCreate":1616726314397,"gmtModify":1616726314397,"author":{"id":"262190804341046","authorId":"262190804341046","name":"Jason1205","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a22c3af3bb938bf74c151660df1d68dd","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"262190804341046","authorIdStr":"262190804341046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">$西方石油(OXY)$</a>建仓一周年了，mark一下，打算再拿一年，只期望能够回到疫情前的价格。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">$西方石油(OXY)$</a>建仓一周年了，mark一下，打算再拿一年，只期望能够回到疫情前的价格。","text":"$西方石油(OXY)$建仓一周年了，mark一下，打算再拿一年，只期望能够回到疫情前的价格。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/289e0d91d9fb225b5a32f1c111e3f948","width":"1125","height":"2436"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358475375","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2232,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":831277748,"gmtCreate":1629332751984,"gmtModify":1629338049045,"author":{"id":"262190804341046","authorId":"262190804341046","name":"Jason1205","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a22c3af3bb938bf74c151660df1d68dd","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"262190804341046","authorIdStr":"262190804341046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AGFY\">$Agrify(AGFY)$</a>庄股就是牛B","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AGFY\">$Agrify(AGFY)$</a>庄股就是牛B","text":"$Agrify(AGFY)$庄股就是牛B","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831277748","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4106,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3488483117770638","authorId":"3488483117770638","name":"快乐金生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3488483117770638","authorIdStr":"3488483117770638"},"content":"不知道为什么，我一买就跌啦","text":"不知道为什么，我一买就跌啦","html":"不知道为什么，我一买就跌啦"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":355381996,"gmtCreate":1617028620815,"gmtModify":1617028620815,"author":{"id":"262190804341046","authorId":"262190804341046","name":"Jason1205","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a22c3af3bb938bf74c151660df1d68dd","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"262190804341046","authorIdStr":"262190804341046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEST\">$百世集团(BEST)$</a>跌得毫无底线","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEST\">$百世集团(BEST)$</a>跌得毫无底线","text":"$百世集团(BEST)$跌得毫无底线","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/355381996","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":851,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":964042194,"gmtCreate":1584108358518,"gmtModify":1704353110826,"author":{"id":"262190804341046","authorId":"262190804341046","name":"Jason1205","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a22c3af3bb938bf74c151660df1d68dd","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"262190804341046","authorIdStr":"262190804341046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INO\">$Inovio Pharmaceuticals Inc(INO)$</a>巴西总统阳性了，老特一家刚和他吃饭，估计都跑不了。美国人这样才能真正重视起来，疫苗股马上要再爆发了。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INO\">$Inovio Pharmaceuticals Inc(INO)$</a>巴西总统阳性了，老特一家刚和他吃饭，估计都跑不了。美国人这样才能真正重视起来，疫苗股马上要再爆发了。","text":"$Inovio Pharmaceuticals Inc(INO)$巴西总统阳性了，老特一家刚和他吃饭，估计都跑不了。美国人这样才能真正重视起来，疫苗股马上要再爆发了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/964042194","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2705,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":639043341,"gmtCreate":1643097423245,"gmtModify":1643097423245,"author":{"id":"262190804341046","authorId":"262190804341046","name":"Jason1205","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a22c3af3bb938bf74c151660df1d68dd","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"262190804341046","authorIdStr":"262190804341046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"As a long term investor, I firmly believe that Affirm will go back to $150.","listText":"As a long term investor, I firmly believe that Affirm will go back to $150.","text":"As a long term investor, I firmly believe that Affirm will go back to $150.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/639043341","repostId":"1189156272","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1189156272","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1643091756,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1189156272?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-25 14:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"1 Growth Stock Down 70% to Buy Hand Over Fist in 2022","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189156272","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Buying into a steep decline in stocks can be a scary prospect, but history suggests it can also be very rewarding.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Key Points</b></p><ul><li>Affirm is now the largest buy now, pay later consumer finance company.</li><li>After signing deals with both Shopify and Amazon, Affirm&#39;s business could soar by over 6,000%.</li><li>The company&#39;s stock is currently down 70% from its high, and that might be a big opportunity.</li></ul><p>The stock market is having a rough start to 2022. The technology-centric <b>Nasdaq 100</b> indexis down 14% year to date at Monday&#39;s prices, and we&#39;re not even four weeks into January. But some individual stocks have suffered far worse, losing 50% of their value (or more) and falling deep into bear-market territory.</p><p>Buy now, pay later (BNPL) company <b>Affirm Holdings</b>(NASDAQ:AFRM) is one of those stocks, declining 70% from its all-time high closing price of $168.52 set on Nov. 4, 2021. But the pessimism might have gone too far since Affirm&#39;s new deals with <b>Amazon</b> and <b>Shopify</b> could deliver growth in its business of over 6,000%. Here&#39;s how.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8aaac2fcf656e22b498197388899bbc7\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><b>The consumer credit revolution</b></p><p>The consumer finance space is constantly evolving, with new and innovative companies rushing to capture young borrowers with shifting spending habits and an appetite for technology-enabled services.</p><p>Large banks have always dominated consumer credit, but their one-size-fits-all approach to products like credit cards is under siege from emerging installment-based lenders like Affirm, which uses a buy now, pay later (BNPL) model. Overall, these tend to be more flexible on both the interest rate and the loan term. Affirm offers repayment periods of three months to 36 months and an interest rate of 0% to 30% per annum depending on the borrower&#39;s creditworthiness.</p><p>Affirm&#39;s BNPL loans also function differently than a typical credit card. The company targets businesses that place Affirm as a payment option at the checkout of their online stores, allowing the purchaser to finance their shopping cart in real-time -- no card required! For the merchant, having a finance option at the checkout means the customer is incentivized to spend more money, and in turn, the business is more likely to steer its customers to Affirm because of that boost in sales. It&#39;s a win-win arrangement.</p><p><b>Affirm is winning big</b></p><p>For several years, Affirm&#39;s market valuation lagged behind global BNPL leader <b>Afterpay</b>, which had first-mover advantage and, therefore, a stronger brand. That companywas recently acquiredby <b>Block</b> (formerly Square) in an all-stock deal, which seemed to leave Affirm even further in the dust.</p><p>But all of that changed in November when Affirm revealed an expansive deal with global e-commerce giant Amazon, which gives Affirm&#39;s BNPL payment option prime real estate in Amazon&#39;s online checkout. This deal adds another growth driver to complement Affirm&#39;s existing deal with Shopify, which recently began a much broader rollout. Shopify&#39;s 1.75 million merchants now have the option to implement BNPL into their online store checkouts.</p><p>Here&#39;s why those two deals have now pushed Affirm&#39;s valuation past Afterpay&#39;s.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b5380ae477435c44e0a2e7ca5762f41\" tg-width=\"1150\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>DATA SOURCE: AFFIRM, SHOPIFY, AMAZON. TTM = TRAILING TWELVE MONTHS.</span></p><p>Since Shopify and Amazon have a combined 318 million registered shoppers, that represents an opportunity for Affirm to grow its user base by 3,555%. From a gross merchandise volume perspective, Affirm is about to have exposure to a whopping 6,362% more sales.</p><p>The effects of the Shopify deal are already kicking into high gear, with the total number of merchants integrating Affirm&#39;s BNPL payment option growing 1,469% from 6,500 to 102,000 in the recent fiscal 2022 first quarter.</p><p><b>Why you should buy the stock</b></p><p>Naturally, the major deals should translate to significant revenue growth for Affirm, and that&#39;s exactly what analysts are expecting.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44fd2be3df878276c1dd5afab47359c5\" tg-width=\"1149\" tg-height=\"161\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>DATA SOURCE: AFFIRM, YAHOO! FINANCE. CAGR = COMPOUND ANNUAL GROWTH RATE.</span></p><p>Looking at the competitive landscape, now that Block has acquired Afterpay, it&#39;s likely those two companies focus on integrations between Afterpay&#39;s BNPL service and Block&#39;s Cash App consumer finance ecosystem. Therefore, Affirm&#39;s largest competitor may no longer be focused solely on attracting new customers, leaving a gaping hole in the market and an opportunity for Affirm to fill it.</p><p>There are some short-term headwinds to navigate with the broader technology stock sell-off, but investors with a long-term focus could do extremely well by taking advantage of the recent dip in Affirm&#39;s share price.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>1 Growth Stock Down 70% to Buy Hand Over Fist in 2022</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n1 Growth Stock Down 70% to Buy Hand Over Fist in 2022\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-25 14:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/01/24/1-growth-stock-down-64-to-buy-hand-over-fist-2022/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Key PointsAffirm is now the largest buy now, pay later consumer finance company.After signing deals with both Shopify and Amazon, Affirm's business could soar by over 6,000%.The company's stock is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/01/24/1-growth-stock-down-64-to-buy-hand-over-fist-2022/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AFRM":"Affirm Holdings, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/01/24/1-growth-stock-down-64-to-buy-hand-over-fist-2022/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189156272","content_text":"Key PointsAffirm is now the largest buy now, pay later consumer finance company.After signing deals with both Shopify and Amazon, Affirm's business could soar by over 6,000%.The company's stock is currently down 70% from its high, and that might be a big opportunity.The stock market is having a rough start to 2022. The technology-centric Nasdaq 100 indexis down 14% year to date at Monday's prices, and we're not even four weeks into January. But some individual stocks have suffered far worse, losing 50% of their value (or more) and falling deep into bear-market territory.Buy now, pay later (BNPL) company Affirm Holdings(NASDAQ:AFRM) is one of those stocks, declining 70% from its all-time high closing price of $168.52 set on Nov. 4, 2021. But the pessimism might have gone too far since Affirm's new deals with Amazon and Shopify could deliver growth in its business of over 6,000%. Here's how.IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.The consumer credit revolutionThe consumer finance space is constantly evolving, with new and innovative companies rushing to capture young borrowers with shifting spending habits and an appetite for technology-enabled services.Large banks have always dominated consumer credit, but their one-size-fits-all approach to products like credit cards is under siege from emerging installment-based lenders like Affirm, which uses a buy now, pay later (BNPL) model. Overall, these tend to be more flexible on both the interest rate and the loan term. Affirm offers repayment periods of three months to 36 months and an interest rate of 0% to 30% per annum depending on the borrower's creditworthiness.Affirm's BNPL loans also function differently than a typical credit card. The company targets businesses that place Affirm as a payment option at the checkout of their online stores, allowing the purchaser to finance their shopping cart in real-time -- no card required! For the merchant, having a finance option at the checkout means the customer is incentivized to spend more money, and in turn, the business is more likely to steer its customers to Affirm because of that boost in sales. It's a win-win arrangement.Affirm is winning bigFor several years, Affirm's market valuation lagged behind global BNPL leader Afterpay, which had first-mover advantage and, therefore, a stronger brand. That companywas recently acquiredby Block (formerly Square) in an all-stock deal, which seemed to leave Affirm even further in the dust.But all of that changed in November when Affirm revealed an expansive deal with global e-commerce giant Amazon, which gives Affirm's BNPL payment option prime real estate in Amazon's online checkout. This deal adds another growth driver to complement Affirm's existing deal with Shopify, which recently began a much broader rollout. Shopify's 1.75 million merchants now have the option to implement BNPL into their online store checkouts.Here's why those two deals have now pushed Affirm's valuation past Afterpay's.DATA SOURCE: AFFIRM, SHOPIFY, AMAZON. TTM = TRAILING TWELVE MONTHS.Since Shopify and Amazon have a combined 318 million registered shoppers, that represents an opportunity for Affirm to grow its user base by 3,555%. From a gross merchandise volume perspective, Affirm is about to have exposure to a whopping 6,362% more sales.The effects of the Shopify deal are already kicking into high gear, with the total number of merchants integrating Affirm's BNPL payment option growing 1,469% from 6,500 to 102,000 in the recent fiscal 2022 first quarter.Why you should buy the stockNaturally, the major deals should translate to significant revenue growth for Affirm, and that's exactly what analysts are expecting.DATA SOURCE: AFFIRM, YAHOO! FINANCE. CAGR = COMPOUND ANNUAL GROWTH RATE.Looking at the competitive landscape, now that Block has acquired Afterpay, it's likely those two companies focus on integrations between Afterpay's BNPL service and Block's Cash App consumer finance ecosystem. Therefore, Affirm's largest competitor may no longer be focused solely on attracting new customers, leaving a gaping hole in the market and an opportunity for Affirm to fill it.There are some short-term headwinds to navigate with the broader technology stock sell-off, but investors with a long-term focus could do extremely well by taking advantage of the recent dip in Affirm's share price.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AFRM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":810,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000603","authorId":"9000000000000603","name":"ElsieDewey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5db46fc82ad451b6aa0d938d2221d70","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000603","authorIdStr":"9000000000000603"},"content":"I think $150 is achievable!","text":"I think $150 is achievable!","html":"I think $150 is achievable!"},{"author":{"id":"9000000000000591","authorId":"9000000000000591","name":"EvelynHoover","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000591","authorIdStr":"9000000000000591"},"content":"come on. For long-term investment, focusing on fundamentals is the most important.","text":"come on. For long-term investment, focusing on fundamentals is the most important.","html":"come on. For long-term investment, focusing on fundamentals is the most important."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":894046825,"gmtCreate":1628779525367,"gmtModify":1628779525367,"author":{"id":"262190804341046","authorId":"262190804341046","name":"Jason1205","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a22c3af3bb938bf74c151660df1d68dd","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"262190804341046","authorIdStr":"262190804341046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNTX\">$BioNTech SE(BNTX)$</a>Please Lord,&nbsp;I need 20% to recover yesterday’s loss.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNTX\">$BioNTech SE(BNTX)$</a>Please Lord,&nbsp;I need 20% to recover yesterday’s loss.","text":"$BioNTech SE(BNTX)$Please Lord, I need 20% to recover yesterday’s loss.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894046825","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1793,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":144158835,"gmtCreate":1626272814827,"gmtModify":1626272814827,"author":{"id":"262190804341046","authorId":"262190804341046","name":"Jason1205","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a22c3af3bb938bf74c151660df1d68dd","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"262190804341046","authorIdStr":"262190804341046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLRY\">$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$</a>为什么股价对联邦合法化提议这么重磅的消息都没有积极反应呢？还能指望有其它的更好的利好吗。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLRY\">$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$</a>为什么股价对联邦合法化提议这么重磅的消息都没有积极反应呢？还能指望有其它的更好的利好吗。","text":"$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$为什么股价对联邦合法化提议这么重磅的消息都没有积极反应呢？还能指望有其它的更好的利好吗。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/144158835","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3786,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"185051829723750","authorId":"185051829723750","name":"斯巴达克斯m","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b32c3166b803bb3ee3086ffee2f563c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"185051829723750","authorIdStr":"185051829723750"},"content":"合法化进度不符合市场预期，另外草案中有一项是要通过减税扶持本土杂草公司，所以加拿大的跌的很凶","text":"合法化进度不符合市场预期，另外草案中有一项是要通过减税扶持本土杂草公司，所以加拿大的跌的很凶","html":"合法化进度不符合市场预期，另外草案中有一项是要通过减税扶持本土杂草公司，所以加拿大的跌的很凶"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":920594317,"gmtCreate":1585059465839,"gmtModify":1704356765274,"author":{"id":"262190804341046","authorId":"262190804341046","name":"Jason1205","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a22c3af3bb938bf74c151660df1d68dd","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"262190804341046","authorIdStr":"262190804341046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$</a>看来经济一刺激，疫苗，药，防护服，消毒水，远程会议，都不要了。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$</a>看来经济一刺激，疫苗，药，防护服，消毒水，远程会议，都不要了。","text":"$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$看来经济一刺激，疫苗，药，防护服，消毒水，远程会议，都不要了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/920594317","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2877,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3531803574632643","authorId":"3531803574632643","name":"Reborn2025","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3531803574632643","authorIdStr":"3531803574632643"},"content":"等下周 现在刺激涨的是大盘股 等劲一过 行情就回到这边","text":"等下周 现在刺激涨的是大盘股 等劲一过 行情就回到这边","html":"等下周 现在刺激涨的是大盘股 等劲一过 行情就回到这边"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":614865927,"gmtCreate":1653488828798,"gmtModify":1653488828798,"author":{"id":"262190804341046","authorId":"262190804341046","name":"Jason1205","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a22c3af3bb938bf74c151660df1d68dd","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"262190804341046","authorIdStr":"262190804341046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>凌晨会议纪要出来会不会拉稀？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>凌晨会议纪要出来会不会拉稀？","text":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$凌晨会议纪要出来会不会拉稀？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/614865927","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7581,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3523020859331474","authorId":"3523020859331474","name":"好无聊的老头","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e848f36c3f05aba43d9dfccd50ca5aa0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3523020859331474","authorIdStr":"3523020859331474"},"content":"今天该暴涨了，标普好几次都差2-3%进入熊市","text":"今天该暴涨了，标普好几次都差2-3%进入熊市","html":"今天该暴涨了，标普好几次都差2-3%进入熊市"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":697367031,"gmtCreate":1642298771771,"gmtModify":1642298771771,"author":{"id":"262190804341046","authorId":"262190804341046","name":"Jason1205","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a22c3af3bb938bf74c151660df1d68dd","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"262190804341046","authorIdStr":"262190804341046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这是一个关于止盈和止损的讨论","listText":"这是一个关于止盈和止损的讨论","text":"这是一个关于止盈和止损的讨论","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/697367031","repostId":"1118598609","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1118598609","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1642290037,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1118598609?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-16 07:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"关于卖出！霍华德·马克斯2022首份备忘录","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118598609","media":"诗从胡说来","summary":"前言：霍华德·马克斯(Howard Marks)的最新备忘录讨论了投资最基本的问题之一：何时卖出。霍华德解释说，因为价格上涨或下跌而抛售是愚蠢的。在大多数情况下，保持投资（being invested","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><b>前言：</b>霍华德·马克斯(Howard Marks)的最新备忘录讨论了投资最基本的问题之一：何时卖出。霍华德解释说，因为价格上涨或下跌而抛售是愚蠢的。在大多数情况下，保持投资（being invested）是“最重要的事情”。</blockquote><p>写备忘录近40年，有时我觉得该停笔了，因为我已经谈遍所有相关的话题。然后一个备忘录的新的念头突然出现，带来一个令人愉悦的惊喜。我在2021年1月的备忘录《关于价值》记录了我在2020年与我的儿子安德鲁（Andrew）生活和讨论投资的时光，叙述了一段半真实的对话，我们讨论了是否以及何时卖出增值的资产。我突然意识到尽管卖出是投资中不可避免的一部分，我从来没有花一整份备忘录来讨论这一点。</p><p><b>基本理念</b></p><p>每个人都熟悉这句老话，这句话应该抓住了投资的基本观点：“低价买入，高价卖出”。这是大多数人看待投资方式的陈词滥调。但很少有重要的事情可以用四个字来概括；因此，“低买高卖”只是讨论一个非常复杂的过程的起点。</p><p>20世纪二三十年代的美国电影明星和幽默作家威尔·罗杰斯(Will Rogers)提供了他可能认为是追逐财富成功的更全面的路线图：</p><p>不要赌博；拿出你所有的积蓄，买些好股票，持有，直到股价上涨，然后卖出。如果股票没有上涨，那就不要买这只股票。</p><p>他的建议的不合逻辑之处清楚地表明了这句格言--就像其他许多格言一样--实际上是多么简单化。然而，不管细节如何，人们可能会毫无疑问地接受他们应该卖出上涨的投资。但这一基本概念有多大帮助呢？</p><p><b>起源</b></p><p>我在这里写的大部分内容源于2015年的备忘录《流动性》。当时投资界的热门话题是对市场提供的流动性下降的担忧(当我说“市场”时，我指的是美国股市，但这一说法具有广泛的适用性)。这通常被归因于：(A)投资银行在2008-09年全球金融危机时一败涂地，以及(B)沃尔克规则(Volcker Rule)，该规则禁止具有系统重要性的金融机构进行自营交易(Proprietary trading)等高风险活动。后者限制了银行的证券交易，或者说在客户想卖出时买入该证券的能力。</p><p>2015年的流动性可能比以前低，也可能没有。然而，在当时的事件以外，我在备忘录结尾时表示，我确信：(A)大多数投资者交易过多，这对他们自己不利；(B)解决流动性不足的最佳解决方案是建立其成功不依赖于流动性的长期投资组合。与短期投资者相比，长期投资者具有优势(我认为后者描述了当今大多数市场参与者)。有耐心的投资者可以忽略短期表现，长期持有，避免过高的交易成本，而其他人都担心下个月或下个季度会发生什么，因此交易过度。此外，如果可以低价购买非流动性资产，长期投资者可以利用这一优势。</p><p>然而，就像投资中的许多事情一样，仅仅持有说起来容易做起来难。太多人以为操作越多，越能增加价值。以下是我在《流动性》一文中对这个观点的总结，灵感来自安德鲁所说过的：</p><p>当你发现一项具有长期复利的投资时，最困难的事情之一是保持耐心和保持你的仓位，只要这样做是基于预期回报和风险。投资者很容易被新闻、情绪、他们到目前为止赚了很多钱的事实，或者对一个看似更有前途的新想法的兴奋所打动而卖出。当你看着一张在20年里上涨的走势图，想一想持有者会有多少次必须说服自己不要卖出。</p><p>每个人都希望他们在1998年第一天以5美元的价格买入亚马逊，因为它现在已经上涨了660倍，达到3304美元。</p><ul><li><p>但是，当该股在1999年触及85美元时-在不到两年的时间里上涨了17倍-谁还会继续持有呢？</p></li><li><p>在2001年股价下跌93%至6美元时，之前持有的人当中有谁能避免恐慌？</p></li><li><p>到2015年底，当触及600美元时--比2001年的低点上涨了100倍--谁不会卖出呢？然而，任何以600美元的价格卖出的人都只获得了从该低点开始的整体涨幅的18%。</p></li></ul><p>这让我想起了有一次我和一位朋友一起去马里布，提到林奇家族据说在1892年以30万美元(约合每英亩22.5美元)的价格买下了整个地区--全部13330英亩(约合6万公顷)土地。(如今，它显然价值数十亿美元。)。我的朋友说：“我希望是我花30万美元买下整个马里布。”我的回答很简单：“当它卖到60万美元时，你就会把它卖了。”</p><p>自从写了《流动性》之后，我越想这个问题，我就越确信人们卖出投资有两个主要原因：因为它们上涨了，以及因为它们下跌了。你可能会说这听起来很疯狂，但真正疯狂的是许多投资者的行为。</p><p><b>因为上涨而卖出</b></p><p>“获利了结”在投资中是一个听起来很明智的术语，用来形容卖出增值的东西。要理解人们为什么会这么做，你需要洞察人类的行为，因为很多投资者的抛售都是出于心理原因。</p><p>简而言之，许多投资者选择卖出是因为人们喜欢他们的资产取得收益这一事实，并且他们担心收益会消失。大多数人投入了大量的时间和精力，试图避免后悔和尴尬等不愉快的感觉。还有什么比眼睁睁地看着一大笔收益蒸发更能让投资者自责的呢？专业投资者在一个季度向客户报告大赚，然后又不得不在下一个季度解释为何持股又降到了成本价或者成本价以下，将会作何感受？想要实现利润，避免这些后果，才是真实的人性。</p><p>如果你卖出一项增值资产，就会把收益“入账”，锁定了收益。因此，一些人认为卖出赢家是非常可取的-他们喜欢已实现收益。事实上，在一家非营利性组织的投资委员会会议上，一位成员建议，他们应该对因为投资收益增加而增加捐赠支出持谨慎态度，因为这些收益尚未实现。我立刻指出，认为已实现收益比未实现收益更确定通常是错误的(假设没有理由怀疑未实现账面价值的准确性)。是的，前者已经实现了。然而，卖出的收益通常会进行再投资，这意味着利润以及本金会重新面临风险。有人可能会说，相比重新投资于目前被认为定价有吸引力的资产，已经上涨的证券更可能下跌，但这远非板上钉钉。</p><p>我并不是说投资者不应该卖出增值资产实现利润。但仅仅因为价格上涨就卖出肯定是没有意义的。</p><p><b>因为下跌而卖出</b></p><p>仅仅为了实现收益而卖出增值资产是错误的，但仅仅因为价格下跌而卖出资产就更糟糕了。不过，我相信很多人都这么做。</p><p>虽然规则是“低价买入，高价卖出”，但很明显，有许多人资产价格越低，他们就越想卖出。事实上，正如持续买入增值资产最终会将牛市变成泡沫一样，大范围卖出下跌的资产也有可能将市场下跌变为崩盘。泡沫和崩盘确实会发生，证明投资者在两个方向上都助长了过度行为。</p><p>在我脑海中播放的一部电影中，典型的投资者会以100美元的价格买入。如果它涨到120美元，他会说，“我想我买对了--我应该加仓，”如果它涨到150美元，他会说，“现在我非常有信心--我要连本带利继续下注（double up）。”另一方面，如果价格跌至90美元，他说，“我会考虑增加头寸，以降低平均成本。”但在75美元时，他总结道，在进一步加仓摊低成本之前，他应该重新检查自己的观点。在50美元时，他说，“我最好等尘埃落定再买更多。”20美元的时候，他说：“感觉价值要归零了，快让我离开！”</p><p>就像那些害怕放弃收益的人一样，许多投资者担心让损失加剧。他们可能会担心他们的客户会说(或者他们会对自己说)，“在证券从100美元跌到50美元之后，什么样的笨蛋还会继续持有证券？每个人都知道，这样的下跌可能预示着进一步的下跌。你看—真的下跌了。“</p><p>投资者真的会犯我所描述的那样的行为错误吗？有大量的轶事证据。例如，研究表明，共同基金投资者的平均表现比共同基金的平均表现差。这怎么可能呢？如果她只是持有，或者如果她的错误是非系统性的，根据定义，基金投资者的平均表现将与基金的平均表现相同。出现这样的研究结果，投资者总体上必须减少他们在随后表现较好的基金中的资本额，并增加对随后表现较差的基金的配置。让我换一种说法：平均而言，共同基金投资者倾向于卖出近期表现最差的基金(错过它们的潜在上涨)，以追逐表现最好的基金(从而可能参与它们的下跌)。</p><p>我们知道，如上所述，“散户投资者”往往是趋势跟随者，他们的长期表现往往会因此而受到影响。那职业选手呢？这里的证据更加清晰：近几十年来，向指数化和其他形式的被动投资的巨大转变已经发生，原因很简单，即主动投资决策往往是错误的。当然，许多形式的错误导致了这一现实。然而，无论是什么原因，我们必须得出结论，平均而言，主动职业投资者持有表现不佳的证券过多，表现优异的证券不足，并且/或者他们在高价买入过多，低价卖出过多。被动投资成为美国权益类共同基金的主流，不是因为被动投资的业绩如此之好，而是因为主动管理的业绩如此之糟。</p><p>回到50年前我在First National City Bank工作的时候，潜在客户常常会问：“你认为你的股票投资组合能获得什么样的回报？”标准答案是12%。为什么？“嗯，”我们(非常简单地)说，“股市一年的回报率约为10%。”只要稍加努力，我们就能在此基础上提高至少20%。“。当然，正如时间所证明的那样，这不是真的。“稍加努力”并没有增加任何东西。事实上，在大多数情况下，主动投资的贡献为负数：大多数股票型基金未能跟上指数，特别是扣除费用后。</p><p>那最终的证据呢？橡树资本在不良债务投资中的关键因素--廉价购买--源于卖家给我们带来的好机会。在经济危机和市场危机期间，负面情绪达到顶峰，导致许多投资者变得沮丧或恐惧，并在恐慌中卖出。只有当持有者以不合理的低价出售给我们时，才能实现我们在不良债务投资中设定的目标。</p><p>优秀的投资在很大程度上包括利用别人犯下的错误。显然，因为价格下跌而卖出是一个错误，这为买家提供了非常好的机会。</p><p><b>投资者应该在什么时候卖出？</b></p><p>如果你不应该因为价格上涨而卖出，那你也不应该因为价格下跌而卖出，那么卖出什么时候是正确的？正如我之前提到的，在《关于价值》中，我描述了2020年安德鲁和他的家人与南希和我住在一起时发生的讨论。这个经验有巨大的价值——是这场大流行出现了意想不到的一线光明。这份备忘录引起了读者对于迄今为止我所有备忘录当中最强烈反应。这种反应可能归因于(A)其中的内容，主要是关于价值投资；(B)提供的个人见解，特别是我承认我需要与时俱进；或(C)我作为附录附上的重新组织的对话内容。最后的内容部分如下：</p><p>霍华德：嘿，我看到XYZ今年上涨了xx%，市盈率是xx。你想了结部分利润吗？</p><p>安德鲁：爸爸，我告诉过你我不是卖家。我为什么要卖呢？</p><p>H：嗯，你可能会在这里卖出一些，因为(A)你涨得太多了；(B)你想把一些收益“入账”，以确保你不会把收益全部回吐；(C)在这样的估值下，它可能被高估了，而且有危险。当然，(D)没有人因获利了结而破产。</p><p>A：是的，但另一方面，(A)我是一个长期投资者，我不认为股票是交易的纸片，而是企业的部分所有权；(B)公司仍然有巨大的潜力；(C)我可以忍受短期的下行波动，下跌是创造股票重新上涨的机会的一部分原因。归根结底，只有长期才是重要的。(我们家说话有很多“a-b-c”。我想知道安德鲁是从哪里学来的。)。</p><p>H：但如果它在短期内可能被高估，你不是应该减持并将部分收益收入囊中吗？之后如果它下跌，(A)你已经限制了你的遗憾，(B)你可以在更低的位置买入。</p><p>答：如果我持有一家潜力巨大、势头强劲、管理出色的私人公司的股份，我绝不会因为有人给了我合理的价格而出售部分股份。很难找到优秀的复利型公司，所以放弃这些公司通常是错误的。此外，我认为预测一家公司的长期结果要比预测短期价格走势简单得多，而且把高信心领域的投资决策换成低信心的决策并不合理。。。。</p><p>H：不存在任何点位会让你开始卖出吗？</p><p>答：理论上是有的，但这在很大程度上取决于(A)基本面是否如我所希望的那样发展，以及(B)考虑到我对这个机会的高度舒适性，这个机会与现有的其他机会相比如何。</p><p>像“从来没有人破产获利”这样的格言可能与业余投资者有关，但他们不应该在专业投资中占有一席之地。当然有很好的理由应该卖出，但它们与害怕犯错、感到后悔和看起来很糟糕没有任何关系。相反，这些原因应该基于投资前景，而不是投资者的心理，它们必须通过冷静的财务分析、严谨和纪律来确定。</p><p>斯坦福大学(Stanford University)教授西德尼·科特尔(Sidney Cottle)是本杰明·格雷厄姆(Benjamin Graham)和大卫·L·多德(David L.Dodd)的“证券分析”(Security Analysis)后来版本的编辑，包括56年前我在沃顿商学院所读的版本，这本书是“价值投资的圣经”，出于这个原因，这本书被我视为“格雷厄姆，多德和科特尔”所著。希德是上世纪70年代第一国民城市银行(First National City Bank)投资部的顾问，我永远不会忘记他对投资的描述：“相对选择的学科。（the discipline of relative selection）”换句话说，投资者做出的投资组合决策大多是相对选择。</p><p>很明显，在任何卖出现有资产的决定中，相对考量因素应该扮演巨大的角色。</p><ul><li><p>如果你的投资论点似乎不像以前那么有效，和/或它被证明是准确的可能性已经下降，出售部分或全部持股可能是合适的。</p></li><li><p>同样，如果出现另一项看起来更有希望的投资-提供更高的风险调整后预期回报-减持或清仓现有持股为其腾出空间是合理的。</p></li></ul><p>出售资产是一项决不能孤立考虑的决定。科特尔的“相对选择”概念强调了这样一个事实，即每一笔卖出都会产生收益。你打算怎么处理它们？你心里有没有什么你认为可以产生更高回报的东西？如果转投新的投资项目，你可能会错过什么？如果你继续持有你的资产而不是做出改变，你会放弃什么？或者你不打算把收益再投资。在这种情况下，以现金形式持有收益比持有你卖出的资产会让你过得更好的可能性有多大？这样的问题与“机会成本”的概念有关，机会成本是金融决策中最重要的理念之一。</p><p>换个话题，因为你认为接下来会有一个暂时性的下跌，将对你的某只持股或者整个市场产生影响，所以卖出，这样的想法正确吗？这种方法存在问题：</p><ul><li><p>为什么为了你预期将是暂时性的下跌做准备而卖出你认为有积极长期前景的东西？</p></li><li><p>因为下降可能不会发生，这样做又让你多了一个犯错的方式(你有很多种犯错的方式)，</p></li><li><p>伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司(Berkshire Hathaway)副董事长查理·芒格(Charlie Munger)指出，因为择时而卖出股票，实际上让投资者有两种犯错的方式：下跌可能会发生，也可能不会发生；如果真的发生了，你就必须弄清楚什么时候是重新入场的合适时机。</p></li><li><p>或者可能是三种方式，因为一旦你卖出后，你在等待下跌的发生，以及重新入场的时机时，你必须决定如何处理这笔收益。</p></li><li><p>通过过于频繁卖出来避免下跌的人可能会陶醉于自己的才华，但未能在下跌导致的低点恢复头寸。因此，即使是正确的卖家也可能无法实现任何有持久价值的事情。</p></li><li><p>最后，如果你错了，没有下跌怎么办？在这种情况下，你将错过随之而来的收益，要么永远不会重新买入，要么以更高的价格这样做。</p></li></ul><p>因此，出于择时的目的卖出股票通常不是一个好主意。这样做很少是有利可图的，很少人拥有这样的技能来利用这些机会。</p><p>在我结束这个话题之前，很重要的是要注意到，卖出的决定并不总是在投资经理的控制之下。客户可以从账户和基金中提取资金，这就需要卖出，而封闭式基金的有限寿命可能会要求基金经理卖出所持股份，即使卖出时机尚未成熟。在这种情况下投资经理仍然可以基于对未来回报的预期来决定卖出标的，但决定什么都不卖不在经理的选择之列。</p><p><b>什么时候叫持仓过重？</b></p><p>当然，在某些时候，基于相对选择，出售一种资产以买入另一种资产是正确的。但我们不能机械地做这件事。如果我们这样做了，在逻辑上的极端情况下，我们会把我们所有的资本投入到我们认为最好的一项投资中。</p><p>几乎所有的投资者--即使是最优秀的投资者--都在分散投资组合。我们可能有一种感觉，我们可能会觉得某一个持股是各个持股中最优秀的，但我从没听过一个投资者的组合中只有一个资产。他们可能利用他们自以为的认知优势加重偏好资产的持仓，但他们仍然利用分散化来保护自己，避免认知盲区。这意味着他们进行了次优化（sub-optimize），潜在地牺牲了一些获得最大回报的机会，以增加仅仅是优秀回报的可能性。</p><p>以下是我与安德鲁重新构建的对话中的一个相关问题：</p><p>H：你管理着一个集中的投资组合。在你投资的时候，XYZ是一个很大的头寸，考虑到升值，现在它的头寸更大了。聪明的投资者集中投资并持有，以利用他们的认知优势，但他们分散持股，在资产价格上升时卖出，以限制他们的认知盲点带来的危害。这一头寸的增长不是让我们的投资组合在这方面失去了平衡吗？</p><p>答：也许这是真的，这取决于你的目标。但修剪意味着卖掉根据我自下而上的评估，我觉得非常舒服的东西，转而进入我感觉不太好或不太了解的东西(或现金)。对我来说，拥有一小部分我强烈喜欢的东西要好得多。在我的一生中，我只会有几个好的洞察力，所以我必须最大限度地利用我拥有的几个洞察力。</p><p>所有专业投资者都希望客户有良好的投资业绩，但他们也希望自己在财务上取得成功。业余者必须在他们的风险承受能力范围内投资。出于这些原因，大多数投资者，当然还有大多数投资经理的客户，都不能幸免于对投资组合集中的担忧，从而容易受到不利事态发展的影响。这些考虑因素为限制单个资产购买的规模和在升值时削减头寸提供了合理的理由。</p><p>投资者有时会将如何对投资组合中的资产权重进行配置的决定委托给一个称为投资组合优化的过程。关于资产类别的收益潜力、风险和相关性的信息被输入到计算机模型中，然后得出具有最优预期风险调整收益的投资组合。如果一项资产相对于其他资产发生了升值，模型可以重新运行，它会告诉你应该买入和卖出什么。这些模型的主要问题在于，我们拥有的关于这三个参数的所有数据是关于过去的，但要得出理想的投资组合，模型需要准确描述未来的数据。此外，这些模型需要风险的量化数据，而我坚持认为，没有一个单一的数字可以完整描述资产的风险。因此，优化模型不能成功地指示投资组合操作。</p><p>底线是：</p><ul><li><p>我们应该根据对每项资产潜力的估计做出投资决策，</p></li><li><p>我们不应该仅仅因为价格上涨和占比变大就卖出，</p></li><li><p>有理由来限制我们持有的头寸的大小，</p></li><li><p>但是没有办法科学地计算出这些限制应该是什么。</p></li></ul><p>换句话说，是削减头寸，还是完全抛售头寸，归根结底是判断。。。就像投资中其他重要的事情一样。</p><p><b>关于卖出话题的结语</b></p><p>大多数投资者试图通过增持和减持特定资产和/或选择买入和卖出的时机来增加价值。虽然几乎没有人证明有能力始终如一地正确地做这些事情(参见我在第4页对主动管理的评论)，但每个人都可以自由地尝试一下。然而，有一个很大的“但是”。</p><p>我很清楚的是，到目前为止，保持投资（being invested）是“最重要的事情”。(应该有人用这个书名写一本书！)。大多数积极管理的投资组合不会因为调整投资组合权重（manipulation of portfolio weightings）或出于择时的目的进行买卖而跑赢大盘。你可以尝试通过这样的计划来增加回报，但这些行动在最好的情况下不太可能奏效，在最坏的情况下可能造成损失。</p><p>大多数经济体和公司都受益于积极的潜在长期趋势，因此大多数证券市场在大多数年份以及长期来看都会上涨。美国运行时间最长的股指之一标准普尔500指数(S&amp;P500)过去90年的复合平均回报率估计为每年10.5%。那是令人吃惊的表现。这意味着90年前投资于标准普尔500指数的1美元将增长到今天的约8,000美元。</p><p>很多人都谈到了复利的奇妙之处。例如，据报道，阿尔伯特·爱因斯坦(Albert Einstein)称复利为“世界第八大奇迹”。如果今天1美元能够以每年10.5%的历史复合回报率进行投资，50年后将增长到147美元。有人可能会说，未来几年的经济增长将比过去更慢，或者之前的时期比现在更容易找到便宜货。然而，即使它的复合利率只有7%，今天投资的1美元在50年后也会增长到29美元以上。因此，今天进入成年期的人，如果他们只是马上开始投资，避免通过买卖交易破坏这个过程，几乎可以保证在他们退休时生活富裕。</p><p>我喜欢我们这个时代最伟大的投资者之一比尔·米勒(Bill Miller)在他的2021年第三季度市场信(Market Letter)中所说的话：</p><p>在战后时期，美国股市有大约70%的时间是上涨的。。。赔率比这低得多的赔率让赌场老板变得非常富有，但大多数投资者试图猜测30%股市下跌的时间，或者更糟糕的是，他们花时间试图在市场的季度起伏波动中冲浪，但这一点用也没用。股票的大部分回报集中在极度悲观或恐惧时期开始的急剧爆发中，就像我们最近在2020年大流行病的下跌中看到的那样。我们相信时间，而不是时机，是在股市积累财富的关键。(2021年10月18日。)。</p><p>米勒谈到的“急剧爆发”是什么？2019年4月11日，The Motley Fool援引摩根大通资产管理公司(JP Morgan Asset Management)《2019年退休指南》的数据显示，在1999年至2018年的20年间，标准普尔500指数的年回报率为5.6%，但如果你错过了最好的10天(或者说大约0.4%的交易日)，你的回报率只有2.0%，如果你错过了最好的20天，你根本赚不到钱。在过去，收益往往类似地集中在少数几天内。然而，过度活跃的投资者继续在市场上进进出出，产生交易成本和资本利得税，并冒着错过这些“急剧爆发”的风险。</p><p>正如前面提到的，投资者经常进行抛售，因为他们认为下跌迫在眉睫，他们有能力避免下跌。然而，事实是，买入或持有-即使在价格高企的情况下-并经历下跌本身远不是致命的。通常，每一个市场高点之后都会有一个更高的市场高点，毕竟，只有长期回报才是重要的。通过考虑不周的抛售减少市场敞口--从而未能充分参与市场的长期积极趋势--是投资的一大罪过。无缘无故抛售下跌的股票，将负面的波动转化为永久性损失，错失长期复利的奇迹，情况就更是如此。</p><hr/><p>当我与人初次见面时，他们发现我是做投资的，经常会问(尤其是在欧洲)“你做什么交易？”这个问题让我毛骨悚然。对我来说，“交易”意味着在猜测未来一小时、一天、一个月或一个季度的价格走势的基础上，跳入和跳出个别资产和整个市场。在橡树资本，我们不从事这样的活动，而且很少有人能证明自己有能力做好这件事。</p><p>我们认为自己是投资者，而不是交易员。在我看来，投资意味着基于对资产潜力的合理估计，将资本投入资产，并从长期结果中受益。橡树资本确实雇佣了名为交易员的人，但他们的工作包括执行投资组合经理根据资产基本面做出的长期投资决策。橡树资本没有人认为，他们可以通过现在卖出、避开期间的下跌后买回来的方式；而不是通过长期持有，基本面预期正确的情况下，让价值提升价格的方式赚钱或者职场进阶。</p><p>1995年橡树资本成立时，五位创始人--当时他们已经平均在一起工作了九年—基于我们当时的成功，建立了一套投资理念。六条信条中的一条表达了我们在买卖时试图择时的观点：</p><p>因为我们不相信正确择时所需的预测能力，所以只要能买到价格诱人的资产，我们就会将投资组合全部投资。对市场环境的担忧可能会导致我们倾向于更具防御性的投资，更加精挑细选或采取更谨慎的行动，但我们从来不会转向增加现金比重。客户雇佣我们投资于特定的利基市场，我们必须尽职尽责。持有价格下跌的投资是令人不快的，但因为我们没有买到我们受雇购买的东西而错过回报是不可原谅的。</p><p>我们从未改变过我们投资哲学的六条信条中的任何一条--包括这一条--我们也没有这样做的计划。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1642290222314","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n关于卖出！霍华德·马克斯2022首份备忘录\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-16 07:40 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/2BnW55U5jE01pdqmq4tFeA><strong>诗从胡说来</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>前言：霍华德·马克斯(Howard Marks)的最新备忘录讨论了投资最基本的问题之一：何时卖出。霍华德解释说，因为价格上涨或下跌而抛售是愚蠢的。在大多数情况下，保持投资（being invested）是“最重要的事情”。写备忘录近40年，有时我觉得该停笔了，因为我已经谈遍所有相关的话题。然后一个备忘录的新的念头突然出现，带来一个令人愉悦的惊喜。我在2021年1月的备忘录《关于价值》记录了我在...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/2BnW55U5jE01pdqmq4tFeA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d235bdf9ea12383d62a2f607dcdc485","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/2BnW55U5jE01pdqmq4tFeA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118598609","content_text":"前言：霍华德·马克斯(Howard Marks)的最新备忘录讨论了投资最基本的问题之一：何时卖出。霍华德解释说，因为价格上涨或下跌而抛售是愚蠢的。在大多数情况下，保持投资（being invested）是“最重要的事情”。写备忘录近40年，有时我觉得该停笔了，因为我已经谈遍所有相关的话题。然后一个备忘录的新的念头突然出现，带来一个令人愉悦的惊喜。我在2021年1月的备忘录《关于价值》记录了我在2020年与我的儿子安德鲁（Andrew）生活和讨论投资的时光，叙述了一段半真实的对话，我们讨论了是否以及何时卖出增值的资产。我突然意识到尽管卖出是投资中不可避免的一部分，我从来没有花一整份备忘录来讨论这一点。基本理念每个人都熟悉这句老话，这句话应该抓住了投资的基本观点：“低价买入，高价卖出”。这是大多数人看待投资方式的陈词滥调。但很少有重要的事情可以用四个字来概括；因此，“低买高卖”只是讨论一个非常复杂的过程的起点。20世纪二三十年代的美国电影明星和幽默作家威尔·罗杰斯(Will Rogers)提供了他可能认为是追逐财富成功的更全面的路线图：不要赌博；拿出你所有的积蓄，买些好股票，持有，直到股价上涨，然后卖出。如果股票没有上涨，那就不要买这只股票。他的建议的不合逻辑之处清楚地表明了这句格言--就像其他许多格言一样--实际上是多么简单化。然而，不管细节如何，人们可能会毫无疑问地接受他们应该卖出上涨的投资。但这一基本概念有多大帮助呢？起源我在这里写的大部分内容源于2015年的备忘录《流动性》。当时投资界的热门话题是对市场提供的流动性下降的担忧(当我说“市场”时，我指的是美国股市，但这一说法具有广泛的适用性)。这通常被归因于：(A)投资银行在2008-09年全球金融危机时一败涂地，以及(B)沃尔克规则(Volcker Rule)，该规则禁止具有系统重要性的金融机构进行自营交易(Proprietary trading)等高风险活动。后者限制了银行的证券交易，或者说在客户想卖出时买入该证券的能力。2015年的流动性可能比以前低，也可能没有。然而，在当时的事件以外，我在备忘录结尾时表示，我确信：(A)大多数投资者交易过多，这对他们自己不利；(B)解决流动性不足的最佳解决方案是建立其成功不依赖于流动性的长期投资组合。与短期投资者相比，长期投资者具有优势(我认为后者描述了当今大多数市场参与者)。有耐心的投资者可以忽略短期表现，长期持有，避免过高的交易成本，而其他人都担心下个月或下个季度会发生什么，因此交易过度。此外，如果可以低价购买非流动性资产，长期投资者可以利用这一优势。然而，就像投资中的许多事情一样，仅仅持有说起来容易做起来难。太多人以为操作越多，越能增加价值。以下是我在《流动性》一文中对这个观点的总结，灵感来自安德鲁所说过的：当你发现一项具有长期复利的投资时，最困难的事情之一是保持耐心和保持你的仓位，只要这样做是基于预期回报和风险。投资者很容易被新闻、情绪、他们到目前为止赚了很多钱的事实，或者对一个看似更有前途的新想法的兴奋所打动而卖出。当你看着一张在20年里上涨的走势图，想一想持有者会有多少次必须说服自己不要卖出。每个人都希望他们在1998年第一天以5美元的价格买入亚马逊，因为它现在已经上涨了660倍，达到3304美元。但是，当该股在1999年触及85美元时-在不到两年的时间里上涨了17倍-谁还会继续持有呢？在2001年股价下跌93%至6美元时，之前持有的人当中有谁能避免恐慌？到2015年底，当触及600美元时--比2001年的低点上涨了100倍--谁不会卖出呢？然而，任何以600美元的价格卖出的人都只获得了从该低点开始的整体涨幅的18%。这让我想起了有一次我和一位朋友一起去马里布，提到林奇家族据说在1892年以30万美元(约合每英亩22.5美元)的价格买下了整个地区--全部13330英亩(约合6万公顷)土地。(如今，它显然价值数十亿美元。)。我的朋友说：“我希望是我花30万美元买下整个马里布。”我的回答很简单：“当它卖到60万美元时，你就会把它卖了。”自从写了《流动性》之后，我越想这个问题，我就越确信人们卖出投资有两个主要原因：因为它们上涨了，以及因为它们下跌了。你可能会说这听起来很疯狂，但真正疯狂的是许多投资者的行为。因为上涨而卖出“获利了结”在投资中是一个听起来很明智的术语，用来形容卖出增值的东西。要理解人们为什么会这么做，你需要洞察人类的行为，因为很多投资者的抛售都是出于心理原因。简而言之，许多投资者选择卖出是因为人们喜欢他们的资产取得收益这一事实，并且他们担心收益会消失。大多数人投入了大量的时间和精力，试图避免后悔和尴尬等不愉快的感觉。还有什么比眼睁睁地看着一大笔收益蒸发更能让投资者自责的呢？专业投资者在一个季度向客户报告大赚，然后又不得不在下一个季度解释为何持股又降到了成本价或者成本价以下，将会作何感受？想要实现利润，避免这些后果，才是真实的人性。如果你卖出一项增值资产，就会把收益“入账”，锁定了收益。因此，一些人认为卖出赢家是非常可取的-他们喜欢已实现收益。事实上，在一家非营利性组织的投资委员会会议上，一位成员建议，他们应该对因为投资收益增加而增加捐赠支出持谨慎态度，因为这些收益尚未实现。我立刻指出，认为已实现收益比未实现收益更确定通常是错误的(假设没有理由怀疑未实现账面价值的准确性)。是的，前者已经实现了。然而，卖出的收益通常会进行再投资，这意味着利润以及本金会重新面临风险。有人可能会说，相比重新投资于目前被认为定价有吸引力的资产，已经上涨的证券更可能下跌，但这远非板上钉钉。我并不是说投资者不应该卖出增值资产实现利润。但仅仅因为价格上涨就卖出肯定是没有意义的。因为下跌而卖出仅仅为了实现收益而卖出增值资产是错误的，但仅仅因为价格下跌而卖出资产就更糟糕了。不过，我相信很多人都这么做。虽然规则是“低价买入，高价卖出”，但很明显，有许多人资产价格越低，他们就越想卖出。事实上，正如持续买入增值资产最终会将牛市变成泡沫一样，大范围卖出下跌的资产也有可能将市场下跌变为崩盘。泡沫和崩盘确实会发生，证明投资者在两个方向上都助长了过度行为。在我脑海中播放的一部电影中，典型的投资者会以100美元的价格买入。如果它涨到120美元，他会说，“我想我买对了--我应该加仓，”如果它涨到150美元，他会说，“现在我非常有信心--我要连本带利继续下注（double up）。”另一方面，如果价格跌至90美元，他说，“我会考虑增加头寸，以降低平均成本。”但在75美元时，他总结道，在进一步加仓摊低成本之前，他应该重新检查自己的观点。在50美元时，他说，“我最好等尘埃落定再买更多。”20美元的时候，他说：“感觉价值要归零了，快让我离开！”就像那些害怕放弃收益的人一样，许多投资者担心让损失加剧。他们可能会担心他们的客户会说(或者他们会对自己说)，“在证券从100美元跌到50美元之后，什么样的笨蛋还会继续持有证券？每个人都知道，这样的下跌可能预示着进一步的下跌。你看—真的下跌了。“投资者真的会犯我所描述的那样的行为错误吗？有大量的轶事证据。例如，研究表明，共同基金投资者的平均表现比共同基金的平均表现差。这怎么可能呢？如果她只是持有，或者如果她的错误是非系统性的，根据定义，基金投资者的平均表现将与基金的平均表现相同。出现这样的研究结果，投资者总体上必须减少他们在随后表现较好的基金中的资本额，并增加对随后表现较差的基金的配置。让我换一种说法：平均而言，共同基金投资者倾向于卖出近期表现最差的基金(错过它们的潜在上涨)，以追逐表现最好的基金(从而可能参与它们的下跌)。我们知道，如上所述，“散户投资者”往往是趋势跟随者，他们的长期表现往往会因此而受到影响。那职业选手呢？这里的证据更加清晰：近几十年来，向指数化和其他形式的被动投资的巨大转变已经发生，原因很简单，即主动投资决策往往是错误的。当然，许多形式的错误导致了这一现实。然而，无论是什么原因，我们必须得出结论，平均而言，主动职业投资者持有表现不佳的证券过多，表现优异的证券不足，并且/或者他们在高价买入过多，低价卖出过多。被动投资成为美国权益类共同基金的主流，不是因为被动投资的业绩如此之好，而是因为主动管理的业绩如此之糟。回到50年前我在First National City Bank工作的时候，潜在客户常常会问：“你认为你的股票投资组合能获得什么样的回报？”标准答案是12%。为什么？“嗯，”我们(非常简单地)说，“股市一年的回报率约为10%。”只要稍加努力，我们就能在此基础上提高至少20%。“。当然，正如时间所证明的那样，这不是真的。“稍加努力”并没有增加任何东西。事实上，在大多数情况下，主动投资的贡献为负数：大多数股票型基金未能跟上指数，特别是扣除费用后。那最终的证据呢？橡树资本在不良债务投资中的关键因素--廉价购买--源于卖家给我们带来的好机会。在经济危机和市场危机期间，负面情绪达到顶峰，导致许多投资者变得沮丧或恐惧，并在恐慌中卖出。只有当持有者以不合理的低价出售给我们时，才能实现我们在不良债务投资中设定的目标。优秀的投资在很大程度上包括利用别人犯下的错误。显然，因为价格下跌而卖出是一个错误，这为买家提供了非常好的机会。投资者应该在什么时候卖出？如果你不应该因为价格上涨而卖出，那你也不应该因为价格下跌而卖出，那么卖出什么时候是正确的？正如我之前提到的，在《关于价值》中，我描述了2020年安德鲁和他的家人与南希和我住在一起时发生的讨论。这个经验有巨大的价值——是这场大流行出现了意想不到的一线光明。这份备忘录引起了读者对于迄今为止我所有备忘录当中最强烈反应。这种反应可能归因于(A)其中的内容，主要是关于价值投资；(B)提供的个人见解，特别是我承认我需要与时俱进；或(C)我作为附录附上的重新组织的对话内容。最后的内容部分如下：霍华德：嘿，我看到XYZ今年上涨了xx%，市盈率是xx。你想了结部分利润吗？安德鲁：爸爸，我告诉过你我不是卖家。我为什么要卖呢？H：嗯，你可能会在这里卖出一些，因为(A)你涨得太多了；(B)你想把一些收益“入账”，以确保你不会把收益全部回吐；(C)在这样的估值下，它可能被高估了，而且有危险。当然，(D)没有人因获利了结而破产。A：是的，但另一方面，(A)我是一个长期投资者，我不认为股票是交易的纸片，而是企业的部分所有权；(B)公司仍然有巨大的潜力；(C)我可以忍受短期的下行波动，下跌是创造股票重新上涨的机会的一部分原因。归根结底，只有长期才是重要的。(我们家说话有很多“a-b-c”。我想知道安德鲁是从哪里学来的。)。H：但如果它在短期内可能被高估，你不是应该减持并将部分收益收入囊中吗？之后如果它下跌，(A)你已经限制了你的遗憾，(B)你可以在更低的位置买入。答：如果我持有一家潜力巨大、势头强劲、管理出色的私人公司的股份，我绝不会因为有人给了我合理的价格而出售部分股份。很难找到优秀的复利型公司，所以放弃这些公司通常是错误的。此外，我认为预测一家公司的长期结果要比预测短期价格走势简单得多，而且把高信心领域的投资决策换成低信心的决策并不合理。。。。H：不存在任何点位会让你开始卖出吗？答：理论上是有的，但这在很大程度上取决于(A)基本面是否如我所希望的那样发展，以及(B)考虑到我对这个机会的高度舒适性，这个机会与现有的其他机会相比如何。像“从来没有人破产获利”这样的格言可能与业余投资者有关，但他们不应该在专业投资中占有一席之地。当然有很好的理由应该卖出，但它们与害怕犯错、感到后悔和看起来很糟糕没有任何关系。相反，这些原因应该基于投资前景，而不是投资者的心理，它们必须通过冷静的财务分析、严谨和纪律来确定。斯坦福大学(Stanford University)教授西德尼·科特尔(Sidney Cottle)是本杰明·格雷厄姆(Benjamin Graham)和大卫·L·多德(David L.Dodd)的“证券分析”(Security Analysis)后来版本的编辑，包括56年前我在沃顿商学院所读的版本，这本书是“价值投资的圣经”，出于这个原因，这本书被我视为“格雷厄姆，多德和科特尔”所著。希德是上世纪70年代第一国民城市银行(First National City Bank)投资部的顾问，我永远不会忘记他对投资的描述：“相对选择的学科。（the discipline of relative selection）”换句话说，投资者做出的投资组合决策大多是相对选择。很明显，在任何卖出现有资产的决定中，相对考量因素应该扮演巨大的角色。如果你的投资论点似乎不像以前那么有效，和/或它被证明是准确的可能性已经下降，出售部分或全部持股可能是合适的。同样，如果出现另一项看起来更有希望的投资-提供更高的风险调整后预期回报-减持或清仓现有持股为其腾出空间是合理的。出售资产是一项决不能孤立考虑的决定。科特尔的“相对选择”概念强调了这样一个事实，即每一笔卖出都会产生收益。你打算怎么处理它们？你心里有没有什么你认为可以产生更高回报的东西？如果转投新的投资项目，你可能会错过什么？如果你继续持有你的资产而不是做出改变，你会放弃什么？或者你不打算把收益再投资。在这种情况下，以现金形式持有收益比持有你卖出的资产会让你过得更好的可能性有多大？这样的问题与“机会成本”的概念有关，机会成本是金融决策中最重要的理念之一。换个话题，因为你认为接下来会有一个暂时性的下跌，将对你的某只持股或者整个市场产生影响，所以卖出，这样的想法正确吗？这种方法存在问题：为什么为了你预期将是暂时性的下跌做准备而卖出你认为有积极长期前景的东西？因为下降可能不会发生，这样做又让你多了一个犯错的方式(你有很多种犯错的方式)，伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司(Berkshire Hathaway)副董事长查理·芒格(Charlie Munger)指出，因为择时而卖出股票，实际上让投资者有两种犯错的方式：下跌可能会发生，也可能不会发生；如果真的发生了，你就必须弄清楚什么时候是重新入场的合适时机。或者可能是三种方式，因为一旦你卖出后，你在等待下跌的发生，以及重新入场的时机时，你必须决定如何处理这笔收益。通过过于频繁卖出来避免下跌的人可能会陶醉于自己的才华，但未能在下跌导致的低点恢复头寸。因此，即使是正确的卖家也可能无法实现任何有持久价值的事情。最后，如果你错了，没有下跌怎么办？在这种情况下，你将错过随之而来的收益，要么永远不会重新买入，要么以更高的价格这样做。因此，出于择时的目的卖出股票通常不是一个好主意。这样做很少是有利可图的，很少人拥有这样的技能来利用这些机会。在我结束这个话题之前，很重要的是要注意到，卖出的决定并不总是在投资经理的控制之下。客户可以从账户和基金中提取资金，这就需要卖出，而封闭式基金的有限寿命可能会要求基金经理卖出所持股份，即使卖出时机尚未成熟。在这种情况下投资经理仍然可以基于对未来回报的预期来决定卖出标的，但决定什么都不卖不在经理的选择之列。什么时候叫持仓过重？当然，在某些时候，基于相对选择，出售一种资产以买入另一种资产是正确的。但我们不能机械地做这件事。如果我们这样做了，在逻辑上的极端情况下，我们会把我们所有的资本投入到我们认为最好的一项投资中。几乎所有的投资者--即使是最优秀的投资者--都在分散投资组合。我们可能有一种感觉，我们可能会觉得某一个持股是各个持股中最优秀的，但我从没听过一个投资者的组合中只有一个资产。他们可能利用他们自以为的认知优势加重偏好资产的持仓，但他们仍然利用分散化来保护自己，避免认知盲区。这意味着他们进行了次优化（sub-optimize），潜在地牺牲了一些获得最大回报的机会，以增加仅仅是优秀回报的可能性。以下是我与安德鲁重新构建的对话中的一个相关问题：H：你管理着一个集中的投资组合。在你投资的时候，XYZ是一个很大的头寸，考虑到升值，现在它的头寸更大了。聪明的投资者集中投资并持有，以利用他们的认知优势，但他们分散持股，在资产价格上升时卖出，以限制他们的认知盲点带来的危害。这一头寸的增长不是让我们的投资组合在这方面失去了平衡吗？答：也许这是真的，这取决于你的目标。但修剪意味着卖掉根据我自下而上的评估，我觉得非常舒服的东西，转而进入我感觉不太好或不太了解的东西(或现金)。对我来说，拥有一小部分我强烈喜欢的东西要好得多。在我的一生中，我只会有几个好的洞察力，所以我必须最大限度地利用我拥有的几个洞察力。所有专业投资者都希望客户有良好的投资业绩，但他们也希望自己在财务上取得成功。业余者必须在他们的风险承受能力范围内投资。出于这些原因，大多数投资者，当然还有大多数投资经理的客户，都不能幸免于对投资组合集中的担忧，从而容易受到不利事态发展的影响。这些考虑因素为限制单个资产购买的规模和在升值时削减头寸提供了合理的理由。投资者有时会将如何对投资组合中的资产权重进行配置的决定委托给一个称为投资组合优化的过程。关于资产类别的收益潜力、风险和相关性的信息被输入到计算机模型中，然后得出具有最优预期风险调整收益的投资组合。如果一项资产相对于其他资产发生了升值，模型可以重新运行，它会告诉你应该买入和卖出什么。这些模型的主要问题在于，我们拥有的关于这三个参数的所有数据是关于过去的，但要得出理想的投资组合，模型需要准确描述未来的数据。此外，这些模型需要风险的量化数据，而我坚持认为，没有一个单一的数字可以完整描述资产的风险。因此，优化模型不能成功地指示投资组合操作。底线是：我们应该根据对每项资产潜力的估计做出投资决策，我们不应该仅仅因为价格上涨和占比变大就卖出，有理由来限制我们持有的头寸的大小，但是没有办法科学地计算出这些限制应该是什么。换句话说，是削减头寸，还是完全抛售头寸，归根结底是判断。。。就像投资中其他重要的事情一样。关于卖出话题的结语大多数投资者试图通过增持和减持特定资产和/或选择买入和卖出的时机来增加价值。虽然几乎没有人证明有能力始终如一地正确地做这些事情(参见我在第4页对主动管理的评论)，但每个人都可以自由地尝试一下。然而，有一个很大的“但是”。我很清楚的是，到目前为止，保持投资（being invested）是“最重要的事情”。(应该有人用这个书名写一本书！)。大多数积极管理的投资组合不会因为调整投资组合权重（manipulation of portfolio weightings）或出于择时的目的进行买卖而跑赢大盘。你可以尝试通过这样的计划来增加回报，但这些行动在最好的情况下不太可能奏效，在最坏的情况下可能造成损失。大多数经济体和公司都受益于积极的潜在长期趋势，因此大多数证券市场在大多数年份以及长期来看都会上涨。美国运行时间最长的股指之一标准普尔500指数(S&P500)过去90年的复合平均回报率估计为每年10.5%。那是令人吃惊的表现。这意味着90年前投资于标准普尔500指数的1美元将增长到今天的约8,000美元。很多人都谈到了复利的奇妙之处。例如，据报道，阿尔伯特·爱因斯坦(Albert Einstein)称复利为“世界第八大奇迹”。如果今天1美元能够以每年10.5%的历史复合回报率进行投资，50年后将增长到147美元。有人可能会说，未来几年的经济增长将比过去更慢，或者之前的时期比现在更容易找到便宜货。然而，即使它的复合利率只有7%，今天投资的1美元在50年后也会增长到29美元以上。因此，今天进入成年期的人，如果他们只是马上开始投资，避免通过买卖交易破坏这个过程，几乎可以保证在他们退休时生活富裕。我喜欢我们这个时代最伟大的投资者之一比尔·米勒(Bill Miller)在他的2021年第三季度市场信(Market Letter)中所说的话：在战后时期，美国股市有大约70%的时间是上涨的。。。赔率比这低得多的赔率让赌场老板变得非常富有，但大多数投资者试图猜测30%股市下跌的时间，或者更糟糕的是，他们花时间试图在市场的季度起伏波动中冲浪，但这一点用也没用。股票的大部分回报集中在极度悲观或恐惧时期开始的急剧爆发中，就像我们最近在2020年大流行病的下跌中看到的那样。我们相信时间，而不是时机，是在股市积累财富的关键。(2021年10月18日。)。米勒谈到的“急剧爆发”是什么？2019年4月11日，The Motley Fool援引摩根大通资产管理公司(JP Morgan Asset Management)《2019年退休指南》的数据显示，在1999年至2018年的20年间，标准普尔500指数的年回报率为5.6%，但如果你错过了最好的10天(或者说大约0.4%的交易日)，你的回报率只有2.0%，如果你错过了最好的20天，你根本赚不到钱。在过去，收益往往类似地集中在少数几天内。然而，过度活跃的投资者继续在市场上进进出出，产生交易成本和资本利得税，并冒着错过这些“急剧爆发”的风险。正如前面提到的，投资者经常进行抛售，因为他们认为下跌迫在眉睫，他们有能力避免下跌。然而，事实是，买入或持有-即使在价格高企的情况下-并经历下跌本身远不是致命的。通常，每一个市场高点之后都会有一个更高的市场高点，毕竟，只有长期回报才是重要的。通过考虑不周的抛售减少市场敞口--从而未能充分参与市场的长期积极趋势--是投资的一大罪过。无缘无故抛售下跌的股票，将负面的波动转化为永久性损失，错失长期复利的奇迹，情况就更是如此。当我与人初次见面时，他们发现我是做投资的，经常会问(尤其是在欧洲)“你做什么交易？”这个问题让我毛骨悚然。对我来说，“交易”意味着在猜测未来一小时、一天、一个月或一个季度的价格走势的基础上，跳入和跳出个别资产和整个市场。在橡树资本，我们不从事这样的活动，而且很少有人能证明自己有能力做好这件事。我们认为自己是投资者，而不是交易员。在我看来，投资意味着基于对资产潜力的合理估计，将资本投入资产，并从长期结果中受益。橡树资本确实雇佣了名为交易员的人，但他们的工作包括执行投资组合经理根据资产基本面做出的长期投资决策。橡树资本没有人认为，他们可以通过现在卖出、避开期间的下跌后买回来的方式；而不是通过长期持有，基本面预期正确的情况下，让价值提升价格的方式赚钱或者职场进阶。1995年橡树资本成立时，五位创始人--当时他们已经平均在一起工作了九年—基于我们当时的成功，建立了一套投资理念。六条信条中的一条表达了我们在买卖时试图择时的观点：因为我们不相信正确择时所需的预测能力，所以只要能买到价格诱人的资产，我们就会将投资组合全部投资。对市场环境的担忧可能会导致我们倾向于更具防御性的投资，更加精挑细选或采取更谨慎的行动，但我们从来不会转向增加现金比重。客户雇佣我们投资于特定的利基市场，我们必须尽职尽责。持有价格下跌的投资是令人不快的，但因为我们没有买到我们受雇购买的东西而错过回报是不可原谅的。我们从未改变过我们投资哲学的六条信条中的任何一条--包括这一条--我们也没有这样做的计划。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6507,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":812848235,"gmtCreate":1630576864427,"gmtModify":1630576864427,"author":{"id":"262190804341046","authorId":"262190804341046","name":"Jason1205","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a22c3af3bb938bf74c151660df1d68dd","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"262190804341046","authorIdStr":"262190804341046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNTX\">$BioNTech SE(BNTX)$</a>Once the third shot approved and started around Sept-20, the stock price&nbsp;will rise.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNTX\">$BioNTech SE(BNTX)$</a>Once the third shot approved and started around Sept-20, the stock price&nbsp;will rise.","text":"$BioNTech SE(BNTX)$Once the third shot approved and started around Sept-20, the stock price will rise.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/812848235","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1664,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}