铁木真的个人主页 - 老虎社区

铁木真

铁木真

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IP属地：河南

320关注

293粉丝

3主题

0勋章

09-22 10:55

加息吧，还富于民！

浙商证券：美联储重启降息国内降息渐行渐近

08-20

$迷你标准普尔500(.XSP)$

07-15

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ kokokkokoo

07-08

kokokokolokokokokokoo

03-17

$标普500(.SPX)$ koko

01-14

加息，打击通货膨胀！

抱歉，原内容已删除

01-13

回到比特币初创时，一美分买一枚！

01-13

上比特币！干他！干他

2024-12-17

下周回国

2024-10-08

$标普500波动率指数(VIX)$

2024-10-06

做空港股正当时！

陈茂波：港股市值升至39.4万亿港元，预期不少公司将加快在港上市进程

2024-09-05

下周回国！

2024-08-28

差不多，半斤对八两。

美国大选扑朔迷离，期权暗示选举后股市恐大跌

2024-08-28

如何在波动中分到一杯羹?

期权女巫 | Nvidia业绩或引发3000亿美元市场巨震！系好安全带，美银推荐价差策略对冲市场波动

2024-08-16

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

押注“比特币影子股”比英伟达涨跌更刺激：美股最强波动ETF来了

2024-03-27

$标普500(.SPX)$ koko

2023-10-26

kokokokokokokkokookkoo

2023-08-22

加息，下跌，减息上涨，股市。

2023-06-21

哈哈！

法拉第未来一度跌超17%，此前贾跃亭回应FF 91交付推迟

2023-04-13

ko

@投资界:30亿，四川攀枝花市绿色低碳产业基金成立

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1347594.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>浙商证券发布研报称，美联储重启降息后，国内央行“跟进”降息的概率有所上升，节奏上10月底及以后落地概率更高。经历连续三个月调整以后，当前债市行情已初具企稳迹象，待进入四季度债市利率或开启新一轮流畅下行，建议投资者做好防守反击，在10年国债1.8%附近择机进场。浙商证券主要观点如下：外部掣肘减弱：“腾挪空间“打开。2025年7月中旬以来，美国就业数据走弱，美联储降息预期逐步强化，因而中美利差倒挂幅度...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1347594.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82005fdd5a20870413111b3adc1a547","relate_stocks":{"601878":"浙商证券","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 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12:10","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"陈茂波：港股市值升至39.4万亿港元，预期不少公司将加快在港上市进程","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160413525","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"九月起至本周五的平均每日成交约1920亿港元，较八月平均每日成交额高出一倍。港股市值亦升至39.4万亿港元。可以预期，市况回升以及投资者审慎看好后市，将推动不少公司加快在港上市的进程，当中包括不少创科企业；同时亦将促成更多企业在港落户。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>10月6日，香港特区政府财政司司长陈茂波在香港特区政府网站发表司长随笔称，踏入2024年的第四季度，整体市场气氛显著改善，恒生指数升至约两年半高位，过去15个交易日累积上升超过5600点，升幅33%。九月起至本周五的平均每日成交约1920亿港元，较八月平均每日成交额高出一倍。港股市值亦升至39.4万亿港元。</p><p>一些持有港股比例较高的投资产品，表现亦水涨船高。就以强积金投资为例，有研究机构报告指出，港股九月份的突出表现，令第三季强积金整体回报有超过7%，是近两年来表现最好的季度。可以预期，市况回升以及投资者审慎看好后市，将推动不少公司加快在港上市的进程，当中包括不少创科企业；同时亦将促成更多企业在港落户。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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12:10</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>10月6日，香港特区政府财政司司长陈茂波在香港特区政府网站发表司长随笔称，踏入2024年的第四季度，整体市场气氛显著改善，恒生指数升至约两年半高位，过去15个交易日累积上升超过5600点，升幅33%。九月起至本周五的平均每日成交约1920亿港元，较八月平均每日成交额高出一倍。港股市值亦升至39.4万亿港元。</p><p>一些持有港股比例较高的投资产品，表现亦水涨船高。就以强积金投资为例，有研究机构报告指出，港股九月份的突出表现，令第三季强积金整体回报有超过7%，是近两年来表现最好的季度。可以预期，市况回升以及投资者审慎看好后市，将推动不少公司加快在港上市的进程，当中包括不少创科企业；同时亦将促成更多企业在港落户。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1cb237e736a4e03c939622e7b71e8e7","relate_stocks":{"HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160413525","content_text":"10月6日，香港特区政府财政司司长陈茂波在香港特区政府网站发表司长随笔称，踏入2024年的第四季度，整体市场气氛显著改善，恒生指数升至约两年半高位，过去15个交易日累积上升超过5600点，升幅33%。九月起至本周五的平均每日成交约1920亿港元，较八月平均每日成交额高出一倍。港股市值亦升至39.4万亿港元。一些持有港股比例较高的投资产品，表现亦水涨船高。就以强积金投资为例，有研究机构报告指出，港股九月份的突出表现，令第三季强积金整体回报有超过7%，是近两年来表现最好的季度。可以预期，市况回升以及投资者审慎看好后市，将推动不少公司加快在港上市的进程，当中包括不少创科企业；同时亦将促成更多企业在港落户。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSI":1.1,"HSTECH":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2321,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":345819304009912,"gmtCreate":1725470759696,"gmtModify":1725470761961,"author":{"id":"3432271782041032","authorId":"3432271782041032","name":"铁木真","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cf0df21ca95edb3fa281792940a6729","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3432271782041032","authorIdStr":"3432271782041032"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"下周回国！","listText":"下周回国！","text":"下周回国！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/345819304009912","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2606,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":343316533596360,"gmtCreate":1724846622523,"gmtModify":1724846624356,"author":{"id":"3432271782041032","authorId":"3432271782041032","name":"铁木真","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cf0df21ca95edb3fa281792940a6729","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3432271782041032","authorIdStr":"3432271782041032"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"差不多，半斤对八两。","listText":"差不多，半斤对八两。","text":"差不多，半斤对八两。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343316533596360","repostId":"2462912105","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2462912105","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1724803840,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2462912105?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-08-28 08:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美国大选扑朔迷离，期权暗示选举后股市恐大跌","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2462912105","media":"智通财经","summary":"几个月来，10月份VIX期货的溢价持续存在，表明人们预期11月5日选举日将导致股市波动性加剧。他表示，选举后第二天的价格上涨意味着标普500指数在选举后突破这一区间的可能性比选举前高出约20%。据了解，自从美国总统拜登于7月21日退出竞选并支持哈里斯以来，这名民主党总统候选人的竞选前景明显改观。在上周的民主党全国代表大会之后，Real Clear Politics的民调显示，哈里斯在全国范围内的支持率为48.4%，特朗普为46.9%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>8月28日，除了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CBOE\">芝加哥期权交易所</a>波动率指数(VIX)期货外，试图了解美国总统大选前后股市情绪的投资者现在可以直接关注与选举期相关的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数期权。几个月来，10月份VIX期货的溢价持续存在，表明人们预期11月5日选举日将导致股市波动性加剧。就在几周前，交易员还可以监控那段时间的标普500指数期权，这些期权反映出在投票后股市大幅波动的可能性更大。</p><p>与前一天到期的期权合约相比，11月6日到期、行权价在当前市场水平附近的看涨期权和看跌期权并没有贵多少。但衍生品分析公司Asym 500的创始人Rocky Fishman表示，进一步的场外价差交易意味着，标普指数大幅波动的可能性更高，尤其是下跌。</p><p>Fishman引用了5000/4800看跌期权价差的例子，该价差远低于标普500指数目前约5600点的水平。11月6日，买入5000点的看跌期权、卖出4800点看跌期权的价格为8.20美元，而一天前到期的合约价格为6.80美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29e20872614cf0224a7333613d765147\" tg-width=\"858\" tg-height=\"310\"/></p><p>他表示，选举后第二天的价格上涨意味着标普500指数在选举后突破这一区间的可能性比选举前高出约20%。</p><p>据了解，自从美国总统拜登于7月21日退出竞选并支持哈里斯以来，这名民主党总统候选人的竞选前景明显改观。在上周的民主党全国代表大会之后，Real Clear Politics的民调显示，哈里斯在全国范围内的支持率为48.4%，特朗普为46.9%。在拜登退出竞选时，哈里斯和特朗普的支持率分别为46.2%和48.1%。总体而言，市场认为两位候选人仍势均力敌。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美国大选扑朔迷离，期权暗示选举后股市恐大跌</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美国大选扑朔迷离，期权暗示选举后股市恐大跌\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-28 08:10 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1172756.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>8月28日，除了芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX)期货外，试图了解美国总统大选前后股市情绪的投资者现在可以直接关注与选举期相关的标普500指数期权。几个月来，10月份VIX期货的溢价持续存在，表明人们预期11月5日选举日将导致股市波动性加剧。就在几周前，交易员还可以监控那段时间的标普500指数期权，这些期权反映出在投票后股市大幅波动的可能性更大。与前一天到期的期权合约相比，11月6日到期、行权价...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1172756.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4588":"碎股","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1172756.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2462912105","content_text":"8月28日，除了芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX)期货外，试图了解美国总统大选前后股市情绪的投资者现在可以直接关注与选举期相关的标普500指数期权。几个月来，10月份VIX期货的溢价持续存在，表明人们预期11月5日选举日将导致股市波动性加剧。就在几周前，交易员还可以监控那段时间的标普500指数期权，这些期权反映出在投票后股市大幅波动的可能性更大。与前一天到期的期权合约相比，11月6日到期、行权价在当前市场水平附近的看涨期权和看跌期权并没有贵多少。但衍生品分析公司Asym 500的创始人Rocky Fishman表示，进一步的场外价差交易意味着，标普指数大幅波动的可能性更高，尤其是下跌。Fishman引用了5000/4800看跌期权价差的例子，该价差远低于标普500指数目前约5600点的水平。11月6日，买入5000点的看跌期权、卖出4800点看跌期权的价格为8.20美元，而一天前到期的合约价格为6.80美元。他表示，选举后第二天的价格上涨意味着标普500指数在选举后突破这一区间的可能性比选举前高出约20%。据了解，自从美国总统拜登于7月21日退出竞选并支持哈里斯以来，这名民主党总统候选人的竞选前景明显改观。在上周的民主党全国代表大会之后，Real Clear Politics的民调显示，哈里斯在全国范围内的支持率为48.4%，特朗普为46.9%。在拜登退出竞选时，哈里斯和特朗普的支持率分别为46.2%和48.1%。总体而言，市场认为两位候选人仍势均力敌。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":1.1,".IXIC":1.1,".SPX":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2172,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":343315751514304,"gmtCreate":1724846540935,"gmtModify":1724846542768,"author":{"id":"3432271782041032","authorId":"3432271782041032","name":"铁木真","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cf0df21ca95edb3fa281792940a6729","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3432271782041032","authorIdStr":"3432271782041032"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"如何在波动中分到一杯羹?","listText":"如何在波动中分到一杯羹?","text":"如何在波动中分到一杯羹?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343315751514304","repostId":"1171591740","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1171591740","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"期权策略分享","home_visible":1,"media_name":"期权女巫","id":"1020040791","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7471350466f20d36ee3112d77c72cd89"},"pubTimestamp":1724817536,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1171591740?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-08-28 11:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"期权女巫 | Nvidia业绩或引发3000亿美元市场巨震！系好安全带，美银推荐价差策略对冲市场波动","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171591740","media":"期权女巫","summary":"美国股票期权市场的交易员预计，Nvidia即将发布的财报可能会引发这家全球最强大的人工智能芯片制造商的市值波动超过3000亿美元。这一预期波动幅度不仅比过去三年内任何一次Nvidia财报前的预期波动更大，而且也远高于该公司过去三年财报发布后的平均股价波动8.1%。考虑到Nvidia的市值约为3.15万亿美元，分析师表示，股价波动9.8%相当于市值变动约3087亿美元，这可能是历史上任何公司预期的最大财报波动。Nvidia的财报结果对更广泛的市场也有重大影响。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>美国股票期权市场的交易员预计，Nvidia即将发布的财报可能会引发这家全球最强大的人工智能芯片制造商的市值波动超过3000亿美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d9cc8e7524adfb78a8cd31db31c5b024\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>根据分析公司ORATS的数据，期权定价显示，交易员们预计公司股价在财报发布后的第二天会有大约9.8%的波动。这一预期波动幅度不仅比过去三年内任何一次Nvidia财报前的预期波动更大，而且也远高于该公司过去三年财报发布后的平均股价波动8.1%。</p><p>考虑到Nvidia的市值约为3.15万亿美元，分析师表示，股价波动9.8%相当于市值变动约3087亿美元，这可能是历史上任何公司预期的最大财报波动。</p><p>根据LSEG的数据，这样的波动幅度远远超过标普500指数中95%的成分股的市值，包括Netflix和默克公司。</p><p>Nvidia的财报结果对更广泛的市场也有重大影响。Nvidia的芯片被广泛认为是人工智能领域的黄金标准，该公司今年股价已经上涨了约159%，占到了标普500指数年初至今18%涨幅的四分之一。</p><p>互动经纪公司首席策略师Steve Sosnick表示：“Nvidia在标普500指数的整体盈利中占了很大比重。它就像Atlas（希腊神话中的擎天神）一样支撑着市场。”</p><p>期权定价显示，交易员们更担心错过Nvidia大幅上涨的机会，而不是因大幅下跌而受到损失。</p><p>根据Susquehanna Financial对期权数据的分析，交易员认为Nvidia股价到周五上涨超过20%的概率为7%，而下跌超过20%的概率仅为4%。</p><p>Sosnick表示：“在财报发布前，人们通常会购买对冲工具，或者说购买一个保险，但在Nvidia的故事里，很多保险都是‘错过上涨’的保险。”也就是“害怕错过”（FOMO）的心态。“他们不想错过一场上涨。”</p><p><strong>期权策略</strong></p><p>美国银行认为市场似乎对Nvidia财报的情绪过于乐观，投资者应该警惕这种乐观情绪可能触发的大抛售。<strong>衍生品策略分析师 Gonzalo Asis</strong> 在周日的客户报告中表示，投资者应该考虑使用防御性的期权交易，以防财报不如预期，引发市场抛售。</p><p><strong>“Nvidia 的财报一直是股市指数的主要推动力……投资者可能低估了财报不达预期的风险。我们认为相比基于Nvidia的对冲策略，S&amp;P 500指数（标普500）认沽价差策略能够更好地保护投资者免受风险及其对更广泛市场的影响。”</strong> Asis在报告中指出。</p><p><strong>他建议可以考虑</strong> <strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">标普500ETF</a></strong> <strong>上进行认沽价差交易</strong>。Nvidia 是 SPY 基金中的第二大持股，超过 6% 的比例，而且它在最近的市场上涨中已经成为市场情绪的关键指标。</p><p>看空期权（Put Option）赋予持有人在预设的行权价格卖出标的资产的权利。Asis 提到的这项认沽价差交易包括购买555 美元行权价的认沽期权，同时卖出 545 美元行权价的认沽期权。‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SPY 20240829 545.0 PUT SELL 1 | SPY 20240829 555.0 PUT BUY 1\" title=\"$SPY 跨價 240829 545P/555P$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$SPY 跨價 240829 545P/555P$  </a>（此策略到期日是2024年8月29日，英伟达财报后的第二天）‌</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/088a991fee2a35a67ec8f6d03f87579d\" tg-width=\"1179\" tg-height=\"1199\"/></p><p>通过持有 555 美元行权价的认沽期权，这笔交易实际上是押注 SPY 的价格会跌破这个水平。卖出 545 美元行权价的认沽期权可以降低这笔交易的前期成本，但也限制了如果市场大幅下跌而导致两项期权都被行权时，交易的最大收益。</p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">标普500ETF</a> 周二收盘价为每股561.56美元，这意味着如果SPY下跌仅1.1%，第一个认沽期权就会进入“实值”（即有利可图的状态）。相比之下，8月5日该基金曾下跌2.9%，当天芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数（VIX）也飙升至自2020年以来的最高水平。</p><p>此外，标普500的期权相较于Nvidia的期权来说，价格相对较便宜，特别是与过去的财报季相比（见下图）。</p><p>Asis和他的团队在周日表示：“结合历史价格来看，标普500的期权仍然提供了一个具有吸引力的切入点，可以对冲Nvidia财报的风险。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fefb6b4824486141e0115f88757859a7\" tg-width=\"1184\" tg-height=\"592\"/></p><p>同时，华尔街广受关注的“恐慌指数”—— <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIX\">标普500波动率指数</a> 本月初的突然飙升，突显了普遍的市场脆弱性正在回归，VIX在8月5日峰值超过65后，一直在快速下跌。截至周二，VIX报15.43，已经下跌了超过76%，且远低于其长期平均值20。</p><p>分析师表示：“VIX有史以来最快的回落提供了一个机会，可以在最近的急剧反弹后增加基于标普500的对冲工具。”</p><p>除了对冲Nvidia财报后的影响，Asis和他的团队还表示，标普500的认沽期权可以为即将到来的“宏观驱动因素”提供保护，比如“另一轮广泛市场的脆弱性冲击”。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>期权女巫 | Nvidia业绩或引发3000亿美元市场巨震！系好安全带，美银推荐价差策略对冲市场波动</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ 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hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n期权女巫 | Nvidia业绩或引发3000亿美元市场巨震！系好安全带，美银推荐价差策略对冲市场波动\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1020040791\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/7471350466f20d36ee3112d77c72cd89);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">期权女巫 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-08-28 11:58</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>美国股票期权市场的交易员预计，Nvidia即将发布的财报可能会引发这家全球最强大的人工智能芯片制造商的市值波动超过3000亿美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d9cc8e7524adfb78a8cd31db31c5b024\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>根据分析公司ORATS的数据，期权定价显示，交易员们预计公司股价在财报发布后的第二天会有大约9.8%的波动。这一预期波动幅度不仅比过去三年内任何一次Nvidia财报前的预期波动更大，而且也远高于该公司过去三年财报发布后的平均股价波动8.1%。</p><p>考虑到Nvidia的市值约为3.15万亿美元，分析师表示，股价波动9.8%相当于市值变动约3087亿美元，这可能是历史上任何公司预期的最大财报波动。</p><p>根据LSEG的数据，这样的波动幅度远远超过标普500指数中95%的成分股的市值，包括Netflix和默克公司。</p><p>Nvidia的财报结果对更广泛的市场也有重大影响。Nvidia的芯片被广泛认为是人工智能领域的黄金标准，该公司今年股价已经上涨了约159%，占到了标普500指数年初至今18%涨幅的四分之一。</p><p>互动经纪公司首席策略师Steve Sosnick表示：“Nvidia在标普500指数的整体盈利中占了很大比重。它就像Atlas（希腊神话中的擎天神）一样支撑着市场。”</p><p>期权定价显示，交易员们更担心错过Nvidia大幅上涨的机会，而不是因大幅下跌而受到损失。</p><p>根据Susquehanna Financial对期权数据的分析，交易员认为Nvidia股价到周五上涨超过20%的概率为7%，而下跌超过20%的概率仅为4%。</p><p>Sosnick表示：“在财报发布前，人们通常会购买对冲工具，或者说购买一个保险，但在Nvidia的故事里，很多保险都是‘错过上涨’的保险。”也就是“害怕错过”（FOMO）的心态。“他们不想错过一场上涨。”</p><p><strong>期权策略</strong></p><p>美国银行认为市场似乎对Nvidia财报的情绪过于乐观，投资者应该警惕这种乐观情绪可能触发的大抛售。<strong>衍生品策略分析师 Gonzalo Asis</strong> 在周日的客户报告中表示，投资者应该考虑使用防御性的期权交易，以防财报不如预期，引发市场抛售。</p><p><strong>“Nvidia 的财报一直是股市指数的主要推动力……投资者可能低估了财报不达预期的风险。我们认为相比基于Nvidia的对冲策略，S&amp;P 500指数（标普500）认沽价差策略能够更好地保护投资者免受风险及其对更广泛市场的影响。”</strong> Asis在报告中指出。</p><p><strong>他建议可以考虑</strong> <strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">标普500ETF</a></strong> <strong>上进行认沽价差交易</strong>。Nvidia 是 SPY 基金中的第二大持股，超过 6% 的比例，而且它在最近的市场上涨中已经成为市场情绪的关键指标。</p><p>看空期权（Put Option）赋予持有人在预设的行权价格卖出标的资产的权利。Asis 提到的这项认沽价差交易包括购买555 美元行权价的认沽期权，同时卖出 545 美元行权价的认沽期权。‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SPY 20240829 545.0 PUT SELL 1 | SPY 20240829 555.0 PUT BUY 1\" title=\"$SPY 跨價 240829 545P/555P$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$SPY 跨價 240829 545P/555P$  </a>（此策略到期日是2024年8月29日，英伟达财报后的第二天）‌</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/088a991fee2a35a67ec8f6d03f87579d\" tg-width=\"1179\" tg-height=\"1199\"/></p><p>通过持有 555 美元行权价的认沽期权，这笔交易实际上是押注 SPY 的价格会跌破这个水平。卖出 545 美元行权价的认沽期权可以降低这笔交易的前期成本，但也限制了如果市场大幅下跌而导致两项期权都被行权时，交易的最大收益。</p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">标普500ETF</a> 周二收盘价为每股561.56美元，这意味着如果SPY下跌仅1.1%，第一个认沽期权就会进入“实值”（即有利可图的状态）。相比之下，8月5日该基金曾下跌2.9%，当天芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数（VIX）也飙升至自2020年以来的最高水平。</p><p>此外，标普500的期权相较于Nvidia的期权来说，价格相对较便宜，特别是与过去的财报季相比（见下图）。</p><p>Asis和他的团队在周日表示：“结合历史价格来看，标普500的期权仍然提供了一个具有吸引力的切入点，可以对冲Nvidia财报的风险。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fefb6b4824486141e0115f88757859a7\" tg-width=\"1184\" tg-height=\"592\"/></p><p>同时，华尔街广受关注的“恐慌指数”—— <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIX\">标普500波动率指数</a> 本月初的突然飙升，突显了普遍的市场脆弱性正在回归，VIX在8月5日峰值超过65后，一直在快速下跌。截至周二，VIX报15.43，已经下跌了超过76%，且远低于其长期平均值20。</p><p>分析师表示：“VIX有史以来最快的回落提供了一个机会，可以在最近的急剧反弹后增加基于标普500的对冲工具。”</p><p>除了对冲Nvidia财报后的影响，Asis和他的团队还表示，标普500的认沽期权可以为即将到来的“宏观驱动因素”提供保护，比如“另一轮广泛市场的脆弱性冲击”。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8effccd1ec9cd7dcf99c09781659ff15","relate_stocks":{"VIX":"标普500波动率指数","SPY":"标普500ETF","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171591740","content_text":"美国股票期权市场的交易员预计，Nvidia即将发布的财报可能会引发这家全球最强大的人工智能芯片制造商的市值波动超过3000亿美元。根据分析公司ORATS的数据，期权定价显示，交易员们预计公司股价在财报发布后的第二天会有大约9.8%的波动。这一预期波动幅度不仅比过去三年内任何一次Nvidia财报前的预期波动更大，而且也远高于该公司过去三年财报发布后的平均股价波动8.1%。考虑到Nvidia的市值约为3.15万亿美元，分析师表示，股价波动9.8%相当于市值变动约3087亿美元，这可能是历史上任何公司预期的最大财报波动。根据LSEG的数据，这样的波动幅度远远超过标普500指数中95%的成分股的市值，包括Netflix和默克公司。Nvidia的财报结果对更广泛的市场也有重大影响。Nvidia的芯片被广泛认为是人工智能领域的黄金标准，该公司今年股价已经上涨了约159%，占到了标普500指数年初至今18%涨幅的四分之一。互动经纪公司首席策略师Steve Sosnick表示：“Nvidia在标普500指数的整体盈利中占了很大比重。它就像Atlas（希腊神话中的擎天神）一样支撑着市场。”期权定价显示，交易员们更担心错过Nvidia大幅上涨的机会，而不是因大幅下跌而受到损失。根据Susquehanna Financial对期权数据的分析，交易员认为Nvidia股价到周五上涨超过20%的概率为7%，而下跌超过20%的概率仅为4%。Sosnick表示：“在财报发布前，人们通常会购买对冲工具，或者说购买一个保险，但在Nvidia的故事里，很多保险都是‘错过上涨’的保险。”也就是“害怕错过”（FOMO）的心态。“他们不想错过一场上涨。”期权策略美国银行认为市场似乎对Nvidia财报的情绪过于乐观，投资者应该警惕这种乐观情绪可能触发的大抛售。衍生品策略分析师 Gonzalo Asis 在周日的客户报告中表示，投资者应该考虑使用防御性的期权交易，以防财报不如预期，引发市场抛售。“Nvidia 的财报一直是股市指数的主要推动力……投资者可能低估了财报不达预期的风险。我们认为相比基于Nvidia的对冲策略，S&P 500指数（标普500）认沽价差策略能够更好地保护投资者免受风险及其对更广泛市场的影响。” Asis在报告中指出。他建议可以考虑 标普500ETF 上进行认沽价差交易。Nvidia 是 SPY 基金中的第二大持股，超过 6% 的比例，而且它在最近的市场上涨中已经成为市场情绪的关键指标。看空期权（Put Option）赋予持有人在预设的行权价格卖出标的资产的权利。Asis 提到的这项认沽价差交易包括购买555 美元行权价的认沽期权，同时卖出 545 美元行权价的认沽期权。‌$SPY 跨價 240829 545P/555P$  （此策略到期日是2024年8月29日，英伟达财报后的第二天）‌通过持有 555 美元行权价的认沽期权，这笔交易实际上是押注 SPY 的价格会跌破这个水平。卖出 545 美元行权价的认沽期权可以降低这笔交易的前期成本，但也限制了如果市场大幅下跌而导致两项期权都被行权时，交易的最大收益。 标普500ETF 周二收盘价为每股561.56美元，这意味着如果SPY下跌仅1.1%，第一个认沽期权就会进入“实值”（即有利可图的状态）。相比之下，8月5日该基金曾下跌2.9%，当天芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数（VIX）也飙升至自2020年以来的最高水平。此外，标普500的期权相较于Nvidia的期权来说，价格相对较便宜，特别是与过去的财报季相比（见下图）。Asis和他的团队在周日表示：“结合历史价格来看，标普500的期权仍然提供了一个具有吸引力的切入点，可以对冲Nvidia财报的风险。”同时，华尔街广受关注的“恐慌指数”—— 标普500波动率指数 本月初的突然飙升，突显了普遍的市场脆弱性正在回归，VIX在8月5日峰值超过65后，一直在快速下跌。截至周二，VIX报15.43，已经下跌了超过76%，且远低于其长期平均值20。分析师表示：“VIX有史以来最快的回落提供了一个机会，可以在最近的急剧反弹后增加基于标普500的对冲工具。”除了对冲Nvidia财报后的影响，Asis和他的团队还表示，标普500的认沽期权可以为即将到来的“宏观驱动因素”提供保护，比如“另一轮广泛市场的脆弱性冲击”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":1.1,"SPY":1.1,"VIX":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2008,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":339174693200032,"gmtCreate":1723810478637,"gmtModify":1723810480073,"author":{"id":"3432271782041032","authorId":"3432271782041032","name":"铁木真","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cf0df21ca95edb3fa281792940a6729","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3432271782041032","authorIdStr":"3432271782041032"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/339174693200032","repostId":"2459407489","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2459407489","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1723764449,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2459407489?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-08-16 07:27","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"押注“比特币影子股”比英伟达涨跌更刺激：美股最强波动ETF来了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2459407489","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"本周四推出的杠杆式单只股票ETF MSTX标的为大举投资比特币的MicroStrategy。MicroStrategy个股的90日波动率达到97%，最近波动已超比特币的英伟达这一波动指标也不过63%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>在以高风险产品闻名的美国ETF市场，对风险的偏好往往是没有最高，只有更高。一只最新脱颖而出的ETF堪称高风险波动投资的佼佼者。</p><p>本周四，管理14亿美元资产的Defiance 推出交易代码为MSTX的ETF——<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTX\">Defiance Daily Target 1.75X Long MSTR ETF</a>。从它的全名可以看出，该基金旨在通过押注股票代码为MSTR的美国商业智能和移动软件公司MicroStrategy Inc.提供每日的杠杆投资回报。</p><p>MicroStrategy因大举持有比特币而被称为“比特币影子股”，仅今年3月11日宣布的增持1.2万枚比特币行动就大手笔投入近8.22亿美元。</p><p>由于MicroStrategy被视为比特币的替代，该个股的90日期间波动率约为97%。因此媒体估算，Defiance的新ETF MSTX可能会称为美国市场波动最大的的ETF。相比之下，另一只容易出现较大波动的个股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>90日波动率为66%，至于本月初华尔街见闻提到暴涨暴跌波动已超过比特币的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>，这一波动指标为63%。而追踪大盘<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数的基金SPY波动率只有14%。</p><p>媒体指出，今年大部分时间美股都处于涨势，利用衍生品提供个股高回报或反向回报的ETF人气急升，吸引了数十亿美元的资金以一系列发行人推出新品。MSTX是这类基金中的新成员，其投资者可能会面临所有 ETF 中最剧烈的波动。有评论称目前高风险ETF市场正处于激烈的“军备竞赛”，越来越多的发行人希望突破波动率的极限，因为这类产品有市场。</p><p>2022年7月，美国首只杠杆式单只股票ETF正式上市，标志着美国ETF进入“个股时代”。此类ETF创新地将杠杆倍数投资的机制应用在了单只股票，投资者可通过购买此类产品，对标的股票进行看多或看空的杠杆倍数投资。</p><p>美国证监会SEC的官员曾对这类利用波动获利的ETF发出警告，尤其是针对散户的风险。但警告并没有抑制华尔街和投资者的热情。杠杆式基金涵盖各种资产、策略和主题。许多公司还能对相关产品收取相对一般ETF更高的费用，因为收费较低的大型ETF发行人不涉足杠杆基金和反向基金。Strategas的ETF 策略师Todd Sohn称，杠杆式单只股票ETF显然引起了交易者的共鸣。这是一个新的先锋领域，特别是对试图在该行业占有一席之地的小型发行人而言。</p><p>媒体估算，过去两个季度，单只股票ETF的资产规模几乎翻了一倍，目前约为85亿美元。今年这类ETF也的确表现不俗。比如两倍做多英伟达的两只ETF——T-Rex 2X Long NVIDIA Daily Target ETF (NVDX) 和 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDL\">GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF</a> (NVDL)今年回报率分别达到330%和290%。其中，NVDL 的资产已从年初的约2亿美元飙升至50亿美元。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n押注“比特币影子股”比英伟达涨跌更刺激：美股最强波动ETF来了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-16 07:27 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3724319><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在以高风险产品闻名的美国ETF市场，对风险的偏好往往是没有最高，只有更高。一只最新脱颖而出的ETF堪称高风险波动投资的佼佼者。本周四，管理14亿美元资产的Defiance 推出交易代码为MSTX的ETF——Defiance Daily Target 1.75X Long MSTR ETF。从它的全名可以看出，该基金旨在通过押注股票代码为MSTR的美国商业智能和移动软件公司MicroStrategy...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3724319\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/414360f2ef7b5c785cb936b4a9b53a44","relate_stocks":{"BK4539":"次新股","BK4023":"应用软件","IE00BDRTCR15.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC A","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","IE0004091025.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU0072462426.USD":"贝莱德全球配置 A2","BK4543":"AI","BK4527":"明星科技股","IE00B19Z8W00.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH \"A\" INC","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (USD) 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21:57","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"法拉第未来一度跌超17%，此前贾跃亭回应FF 91交付推迟","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171829485","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月21日，法拉第未来一度跌超17%，此前贾跃亭就法拉第未来首款车型第二阶段交付推迟致歉。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>6月21日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">法拉第未来</a>一度跌超17%，此前贾跃亭就法拉第未来首款车型第二阶段交付推迟致歉。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5307b47ad9843d274d236a337f7f9194\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>法拉第未来一度跌超17%，此前贾跃亭回应FF 91交付推迟</title>\n<style 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">法拉第未来</a>一度跌超17%，此前贾跃亭就法拉第未来首款车型第二阶段交付推迟致歉。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5307b47ad9843d274d236a337f7f9194\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da02b327d14fbb528d302ef2b9995bf1","relate_stocks":{"BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4109":"特种化学制品","BK4555":"新能源车","FF":"FutureFuel Corporation"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171829485","content_text":"6月21日，法拉第未来一度跌超17%，此前贾跃亭就法拉第未来首款车型第二阶段交付推迟致歉。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FF":1,"FFIE":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2413,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":651035099,"gmtCreate":1681339993712,"gmtModify":1681339995122,"author":{"id":"3432271782041032","authorId":"3432271782041032","name":"铁木真","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cf0df21ca95edb3fa281792940a6729","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3432271782041032","authorIdStr":"3432271782041032"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ko","listText":"ko","text":"ko","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/651035099","repostId":"653722840","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":653722840,"gmtCreate":1681285740000,"gmtModify":1681288770196,"author":{"id":"3579560926082632","authorId":"3579560926082632","name":"投资界","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a09632062f91283b4308e641ec08979","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579560926082632","authorIdStr":"3579560926082632"},"themes":[],"title":"30亿，四川攀枝花市绿色低碳产业基金成立","htmlText":"投资界-解码LP消息，3月28日，攀枝花市绿色低碳产业发展股权投资基金中心（有限合伙）正式挂牌成立。产业基金募集规模30亿元，存续期8年（其中：投资期5年、退出期3年），采用认缴制，首期募集5亿元。今后根据全市产业发展需求和市场容量，逐步扩大募资规模。 产业基金按照“政府引导、市场运作、循序渐进、防范风险”原则投资运作。运作方式包括股权方式直接投资项目（企业）或采用“母子”基金模式。基金重点投资绿色低碳产业，包括钒钛资源综合利用、新能源、新材料、现代制造、现代农业、文化旅游等战略新兴、高端成长型产业，支持产业链条整合和完善，重大技术成果转化。基金出资人根据产业基金投资业务开展需要，按认缴比例同步到位资金。按照“利益共享、风险共担”原则，约定收益处理和亏损负担方式。产业基金存续期满后终止，并在各出资人监督下组织清算。 获取更多LP资讯，来👉VC情报局 https://vc.pedaily.cn/lp/index","listText":"投资界-解码LP消息，3月28日，攀枝花市绿色低碳产业发展股权投资基金中心（有限合伙）正式挂牌成立。产业基金募集规模30亿元，存续期8年（其中：投资期5年、退出期3年），采用认缴制，首期募集5亿元。今后根据全市产业发展需求和市场容量，逐步扩大募资规模。 产业基金按照“政府引导、市场运作、循序渐进、防范风险”原则投资运作。运作方式包括股权方式直接投资项目（企业）或采用“母子”基金模式。基金重点投资绿色低碳产业，包括钒钛资源综合利用、新能源、新材料、现代制造、现代农业、文化旅游等战略新兴、高端成长型产业，支持产业链条整合和完善，重大技术成果转化。基金出资人根据产业基金投资业务开展需要，按认缴比例同步到位资金。按照“利益共享、风险共担”原则，约定收益处理和亏损负担方式。产业基金存续期满后终止，并在各出资人监督下组织清算。 获取更多LP资讯，来👉VC情报局 https://vc.pedaily.cn/lp/index","text":"投资界-解码LP消息，3月28日，攀枝花市绿色低碳产业发展股权投资基金中心（有限合伙）正式挂牌成立。产业基金募集规模30亿元，存续期8年（其中：投资期5年、退出期3年），采用认缴制，首期募集5亿元。今后根据全市产业发展需求和市场容量，逐步扩大募资规模。 产业基金按照“政府引导、市场运作、循序渐进、防范风险”原则投资运作。运作方式包括股权方式直接投资项目（企业）或采用“母子”基金模式。基金重点投资绿色低碳产业，包括钒钛资源综合利用、新能源、新材料、现代制造、现代农业、文化旅游等战略新兴、高端成长型产业，支持产业链条整合和完善，重大技术成果转化。基金出资人根据产业基金投资业务开展需要，按认缴比例同步到位资金。按照“利益共享、风险共担”原则，约定收益处理和亏损负担方式。产业基金存续期满后终止，并在各出资人监督下组织清算。 获取更多LP资讯，来👉VC情报局 https://vc.pedaily.cn/lp/index","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/653722840","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1914,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":481222614499576,"gmtCreate":1758509751937,"gmtModify":1758509754187,"author":{"id":"3432271782041032","authorId":"3432271782041032","name":"铁木真","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cf0df21ca95edb3fa281792940a6729","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3432271782041032","authorIdStr":"3432271782041032"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"加息吧，还富于民！","listText":"加息吧，还富于民！","text":"加息吧，还富于民！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/481222614499576","repostId":"2568212982","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2568212982","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1758438420,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2568212982?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-09-21 15:07","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"浙商证券：美联储重启降息 国内降息渐行渐近","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2568212982","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，浙商证券发布研报称，美联储重启降息后，国内央行“跟进”降息的概率有所上升，节奏上10月底及以后落地概率更高。经历连续三个月调整以后，当前债市行情已初具企稳迹象，待进入四季度债市利率或开启新一轮流畅下行，建议投资者做好防守反击，在10年国债1.8%附近择机进场。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601878\">浙商证券</a>发布研报称，美联储重启降息后，国内央行“跟进”降息的概率有所上升，节奏上10月底及以后落地概率更高。经历连续三个月调整以后，当前债市行情已初具企稳迹象，待进入四季度债市利率或开启新一轮流畅下行，建议投资者做好防守反击，在10年国债1.8%附近择机进场。</p><p><strong>浙商证券主要观点如下：</strong></p><p><strong>外部掣肘减弱：“腾挪空间“打开。</strong></p><p>2025年7月中旬以来，美国就业数据走弱，美联储降息预期逐步强化，因而中美利差倒挂幅度收窄，资金外流风险下降，为央行货币宽松创造了一定窗口。美元走弱带动人民币被动升值，结汇需求回升，境内流动性环境边际改善，降息空间打开。汇率压力减轻，但仍需防止“人民币快速升值→出口竞争力下降”的副作用，因此央行降息存在一定必要性。</p><p><strong>内部仍有约束：银行息差低位+实际利率上行。</strong></p><p>当前降息仍然面临“银行净息差低位+实际利率上行”的双重约束。商业银行净息差已降至历史低位，若再进一步单边下调贷款基准利率，银行盈利与信贷投放意愿可能进一步受挫，故央行对全面降息或更为谨慎。通胀预期偏弱，大幅降息或导致实际利率走高继而一定程度上抑制消费及投资。</p><p><strong>国内降息渐行渐近：10月底后概率更高。</strong></p><p>美联储重启降息后，国内央行“跟进”降息的概率有所上升，但节奏、幅度和方式都将“以我为主”，节奏上10月底及以后落地或概率更高。经历连续三个月调整以后，当前债市行情已初具企稳迹象，待进入四季度债市利率或开启新一轮流畅下行，建议投资者做好防守反击，在10年国债1.8%附近择机进场。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>浙商证券：美联储重启降息 国内降息渐行渐近</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; 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href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1347594.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>浙商证券发布研报称，美联储重启降息后，国内央行“跟进”降息的概率有所上升，节奏上10月底及以后落地概率更高。经历连续三个月调整以后，当前债市行情已初具企稳迹象，待进入四季度债市利率或开启新一轮流畅下行，建议投资者做好防守反击，在10年国债1.8%附近择机进场。浙商证券主要观点如下：外部掣肘减弱：“腾挪空间“打开。2025年7月中旬以来，美国就业数据走弱，美联储降息预期逐步强化，因而中美利差倒挂幅度...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1347594.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82005fdd5a20870413111b3adc1a547","relate_stocks":{"601878":"浙商证券","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 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05:29","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"外媒头条 | “末日博士”称美股有40%下跌空间","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2269990031","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"　　在周三公布点阵图时，美联储官员将把近几周来所做的经济预警以数字形式表现出来，预计对利率和失业率的预测将会大幅上调。　　美联储周二起在华盛顿举行为期两天的政策会议，外界预期官员们将连续第三次上调基准利率75基点。　　自6月上一轮经济预测公布以来，美国通胀几乎没有降温，这促使美联储采取了更加激进的立场。　　拉加德重申，欧洲央行将逐次会议作出决定，任何行动都将取决于未来的经济数据。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：</b></p><blockquote><b>1、美联储经济预测即将揭晓 “失业率”数据或将破新高 </b></blockquote><blockquote><b>2、欧洲央行行长拉加德：“靠前发力”之后还会有更多加息</b></blockquote><blockquote><b>3、“末日博士”预计全球年底陷入“漫长惨烈”衰退 美国股市恐暴跌40%</b></blockquote><blockquote><b>4、通胀与加息重创股市 因子投资法找回昔日荣光</b></blockquote><blockquote><b>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>CEO抨击：国会要求太苛刻 美国经济是个“两面派”</b></blockquote><blockquote><b>6、德国政府将以历史性援助协议把天然气巨头Uniper国有化</b></blockquote><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3640c165bbab35a063886f0264187e4a\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>美联储经济预测即将揭晓 “失业率”数据或将破新高 </b></p><p>在周三公布点阵图时，美联储官员将把近几周来所做的经济预警以数字形式表现出来，预计对利率和失业率的预测将会大幅上调。</p><p>美联储周二起在华盛顿举行为期两天的政策会议，外界预期官员们将连续第三次上调基准利率75基点。</p><p>这意味着基准利率将升至2008年金融危机前以来的最高水平。紧缩周期的下一阶段将带来更大的经济风险，这可能会在他们的修订后的经济预测中得到反映。</p><p>自6月上一轮经济预测公布以来，美国通胀几乎没有降温，这促使美联储采取了更加激进的立场。他们也越来越怀疑失业率和通胀率之间的关系，这可能是他们现在倾向于让经济活动进一步放缓的部分原因。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">德意志银行</a>驻纽约高级美国经济学家Brett Ryan表示，“当然，利率上升将对失业产生更大的影响。我们预计在美联储的新预测中，失业率将接近4.5%，他们仍然会提到‘软着陆’前景，但也会暗示其中有很高的经济衰退风险。”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3452a796edd35bc84caa0933386c85fb\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>欧洲央行行长拉加德：“靠前发力”之后还会有更多加息</b></p><p>欧洲央行行长拉加德称，在央行靠前发力、实施了“我们历史上最快的利率调整”之后，借贷成本在未来数月还将进一步上升。</p><p>“我们在货币政策正常化的道路上迈出了重大步伐，实施了靠前加息，”拉加德周二晚间在法兰克福发表演讲称。“我们预计在接下来的几次会议上会进一步加息。”</p><p>在本月效仿美联储加息75个基点之后，欧洲央行官员正在激辩下一步行动。虽然他们同意需要采取进一步行动来控制创纪录的通胀，但随着能源成本飙升推动欧洲走向经济衰退，他们对应该多激进的问题存在分歧。</p><p>爱沙尼亚央行行长Madis Muller周二早些时候发表讲话，敦促欧洲央行采取“足够有力和果断”的行动，称当前的利率仍远不到限制欧元区经济扩张的水平。欧洲央行副行长Luis de Guindos周一表示，经济增长放缓不足以缓解通胀。</p><p>拉加德重申，欧洲央行将逐次会议作出决定，任何行动都将取决于未来的经济数据。“利率最终落在何处，以及我们每一步的规模，将取决于通胀前景如何演变，”她说。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ba01422e545fe48e009ec9973e1980f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>“末日博士”预计全球年底陷入“漫长惨烈”衰退 美国股市恐暴跌40%</b></p><p>曾准确预测到2008年金融危机的经济学家鲁比尼认为，美国和全球将在2022年底遭遇“漫长而惨烈”的衰退并在整个2023年都深陷其中，而标普500指数也会大幅下跌。</p><p>“即使在平淡的普通衰退中标普500指数也可能下跌30%，” Roubini Macro Associates董事长兼首席执行官鲁比尼周一接受采访时表示，在他预计的“真正硬着陆”中，美股可能会重挫40%。</p><p>鲁比尼对2007年至2008年房地产泡沫破灭的预见使他获得了“末日博士”的绰号。他表示，认为美国只会浅衰退的人应该看看企业和政府的高负债比。随着利率上升和偿债成本增加，“许多机构、居民、企业、银行、影子银行都会完蛋，” 他说，“所以我们到时候就知道谁在裸泳了。”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6243978df13130ee8cdbe679db71b0f4\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>通胀与加息重创股市 因子投资法找回昔日荣光</b></p><p>十年河东，十年河西。股市正在经历全球金融危机以来最糟糕的一年，让曾经革命性的量化投资者有机会找回昔日的荣光，一洗他们在廉价货币时代遭受的屈辱。</p><p>机器驱动的基金依据股票的一些特质（例如廉价程度、上涨速度等）进行交易操作，今年屡试不爽。这就是所谓的因子投资。相比之下，主动管理的对冲基金和短线炒家都没能躲开市场大跌。</p><p>随着历史性的高通胀引发央行加息，导致大型科技股领涨的格局戛然而止，极端行情正在逆转。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPGI\">标普全球</a>的数据显示，超高市值公司不再独领风骚，标普500指数成份股赢家和输家的差距也达到十多年来的最大。</p><p>所有这一切都激发了基于规则的基金。买入低波动或高动量个股的策略处于盈利状态，价值股也正在延续疫后的回归。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7ed24c5e4b57d9d055660c38e5e736b\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>摩根大通CEO抨击：国会要求太苛刻 美国经济是个“两面派”</b></p><p>摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙在本周两场国会听证会举行前将矛头指向了“资本要求提高”一事。</p><p>本周三和周四，戴蒙将与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>、花旗集团等主要银行的掌门人一起出席有关消费者银行业务的国会听证会。在事先准备好的讲稿中，他称赞自己的公司在全球经济中发挥的作用，并警告说“任意增加资本要求”会带来伤害。</p><p>“美国对大银行持续提高资本金要求本身就构成了重大经济风险，特别是在没有反映实际风险的情况下，” Dimon写道。 “这根本是在错误的时间束缚了受监管的银行，导致它们的资本受到限制，在国家经济艰困时期不利于他们扩大放贷等业务”。</p><p>摩根大通7月被要求暂停股票回购，以尽快满足与更严格压力测试结果相关的更高资本要求。戴蒙长期以来都对资本要求的提高颇有诟病。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8458711ed01911a4418e3128dedcc4d0\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>德国政府将以历史性援助协议把天然气巨头Uniper国有化</b></p><p>德国政府计划向天然气巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNPPY\">Uniper SE</a>注入大约80亿欧元（80亿美元）资本，以历史性的协议将该公司国有化，同时防止该国能源行业崩溃。</p><p>Uniper周二证实，在与政府最终商讨一份方案，方案包括80亿欧元的增资，完全由政府认购。德国政府还将购入其主要股东芬兰Fortum Oyj的股份。</p><p>Uniper是德国国内俄罗斯天然气的最大买家，处在能源危机的核心。在俄罗斯限制对欧洲的能源供应这一背景下，如果Uniper破产，可能对德国经济的各个领域产生波及，并可能威胁燃料供应，因此政府面临行动压力。</p><p>Uniper股价上涨3%。Fortnum股价跃升9.5%，随后股票的交易被交易所暂停。</p></body></html>","source":"highlight_sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" 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display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n外媒头条 | “末日博士”称美股有40%下跌空间\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-21 05:29 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/world/2022-09-21/doc-imqmmtha8114555.shtml><strong>环球市场播报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：1、美联储经济预测即将揭晓 “失业率”数据或将破新高 2、欧洲央行行长拉加德：“靠前发力”之后还会有更多加息3、“末日博士”预计全球年底陷入“漫长惨烈”衰退 美国股市恐暴跌40%4、通胀与加息重创股市 因子投资法找回昔日荣光5、摩根大通CEO抨击：国会要求太苛刻 美国经济是个“两面派”6、德国政府将以历史性援助协议把天然气巨头Uniper国有化美联储...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/world/2022-09-21/doc-imqmmtha8114555.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7ed24c5e4b57d9d055660c38e5e736b","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/world/2022-09-21/doc-imqmmtha8114555.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2269990031","content_text":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：1、美联储经济预测即将揭晓 “失业率”数据或将破新高 2、欧洲央行行长拉加德：“靠前发力”之后还会有更多加息3、“末日博士”预计全球年底陷入“漫长惨烈”衰退 美国股市恐暴跌40%4、通胀与加息重创股市 因子投资法找回昔日荣光5、摩根大通CEO抨击：国会要求太苛刻 美国经济是个“两面派”6、德国政府将以历史性援助协议把天然气巨头Uniper国有化美联储经济预测即将揭晓 “失业率”数据或将破新高 在周三公布点阵图时，美联储官员将把近几周来所做的经济预警以数字形式表现出来，预计对利率和失业率的预测将会大幅上调。美联储周二起在华盛顿举行为期两天的政策会议，外界预期官员们将连续第三次上调基准利率75基点。这意味着基准利率将升至2008年金融危机前以来的最高水平。紧缩周期的下一阶段将带来更大的经济风险，这可能会在他们的修订后的经济预测中得到反映。自6月上一轮经济预测公布以来，美国通胀几乎没有降温，这促使美联储采取了更加激进的立场。他们也越来越怀疑失业率和通胀率之间的关系，这可能是他们现在倾向于让经济活动进一步放缓的部分原因。德意志银行驻纽约高级美国经济学家Brett Ryan表示，“当然，利率上升将对失业产生更大的影响。我们预计在美联储的新预测中，失业率将接近4.5%，他们仍然会提到‘软着陆’前景，但也会暗示其中有很高的经济衰退风险。”欧洲央行行长拉加德：“靠前发力”之后还会有更多加息欧洲央行行长拉加德称，在央行靠前发力、实施了“我们历史上最快的利率调整”之后，借贷成本在未来数月还将进一步上升。“我们在货币政策正常化的道路上迈出了重大步伐，实施了靠前加息，”拉加德周二晚间在法兰克福发表演讲称。“我们预计在接下来的几次会议上会进一步加息。”在本月效仿美联储加息75个基点之后，欧洲央行官员正在激辩下一步行动。虽然他们同意需要采取进一步行动来控制创纪录的通胀，但随着能源成本飙升推动欧洲走向经济衰退，他们对应该多激进的问题存在分歧。爱沙尼亚央行行长Madis Muller周二早些时候发表讲话，敦促欧洲央行采取“足够有力和果断”的行动，称当前的利率仍远不到限制欧元区经济扩张的水平。欧洲央行副行长Luis de Guindos周一表示，经济增长放缓不足以缓解通胀。拉加德重申，欧洲央行将逐次会议作出决定，任何行动都将取决于未来的经济数据。“利率最终落在何处，以及我们每一步的规模，将取决于通胀前景如何演变，”她说。“末日博士”预计全球年底陷入“漫长惨烈”衰退 美国股市恐暴跌40%曾准确预测到2008年金融危机的经济学家鲁比尼认为，美国和全球将在2022年底遭遇“漫长而惨烈”的衰退并在整个2023年都深陷其中，而标普500指数也会大幅下跌。“即使在平淡的普通衰退中标普500指数也可能下跌30%，” Roubini Macro Associates董事长兼首席执行官鲁比尼周一接受采访时表示，在他预计的“真正硬着陆”中，美股可能会重挫40%。鲁比尼对2007年至2008年房地产泡沫破灭的预见使他获得了“末日博士”的绰号。他表示，认为美国只会浅衰退的人应该看看企业和政府的高负债比。随着利率上升和偿债成本增加，“许多机构、居民、企业、银行、影子银行都会完蛋，” 他说，“所以我们到时候就知道谁在裸泳了。”通胀与加息重创股市 因子投资法找回昔日荣光十年河东，十年河西。股市正在经历全球金融危机以来最糟糕的一年，让曾经革命性的量化投资者有机会找回昔日的荣光，一洗他们在廉价货币时代遭受的屈辱。机器驱动的基金依据股票的一些特质（例如廉价程度、上涨速度等）进行交易操作，今年屡试不爽。这就是所谓的因子投资。相比之下，主动管理的对冲基金和短线炒家都没能躲开市场大跌。随着历史性的高通胀引发央行加息，导致大型科技股领涨的格局戛然而止，极端行情正在逆转。标普全球的数据显示，超高市值公司不再独领风骚，标普500指数成份股赢家和输家的差距也达到十多年来的最大。所有这一切都激发了基于规则的基金。买入低波动或高动量个股的策略处于盈利状态，价值股也正在延续疫后的回归。摩根大通CEO抨击：国会要求太苛刻 美国经济是个“两面派”摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙在本周两场国会听证会举行前将矛头指向了“资本要求提高”一事。本周三和周四，戴蒙将与美国银行、富国银行、花旗集团等主要银行的掌门人一起出席有关消费者银行业务的国会听证会。在事先准备好的讲稿中，他称赞自己的公司在全球经济中发挥的作用，并警告说“任意增加资本要求”会带来伤害。“美国对大银行持续提高资本金要求本身就构成了重大经济风险，特别是在没有反映实际风险的情况下，” Dimon写道。 “这根本是在错误的时间束缚了受监管的银行，导致它们的资本受到限制，在国家经济艰困时期不利于他们扩大放贷等业务”。摩根大通7月被要求暂停股票回购，以尽快满足与更严格压力测试结果相关的更高资本要求。戴蒙长期以来都对资本要求的提高颇有诟病。德国政府将以历史性援助协议把天然气巨头Uniper国有化德国政府计划向天然气巨头Uniper SE注入大约80亿欧元（80亿美元）资本，以历史性的协议将该公司国有化，同时防止该国能源行业崩溃。Uniper周二证实，在与政府最终商讨一份方案，方案包括80亿欧元的增资，完全由政府认购。德国政府还将购入其主要股东芬兰Fortum Oyj的股份。Uniper是德国国内俄罗斯天然气的最大买家，处在能源危机的核心。在俄罗斯限制对欧洲的能源供应这一背景下，如果Uniper破产，可能对德国经济的各个领域产生波及，并可能威胁燃料供应，因此政府面临行动压力。Uniper股价上涨3%。Fortnum股价跃升9.5%，随后股票的交易被交易所暂停。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1292,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":680996603,"gmtCreate":1654731517306,"gmtModify":1704860198646,"author":{"id":"3432271782041032","authorId":"3432271782041032","name":"铁木真","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cf0df21ca95edb3fa281792940a6729","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3432271782041032","authorIdStr":"3432271782041032"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"kokpkokp","listText":"kokpkokp","text":"kokpkokp","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/680996603","repostId":"2242400508","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2523,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":849726588,"gmtCreate":1635778522939,"gmtModify":1635778522939,"author":{"id":"3432271782041032","authorId":"3432271782041032","name":"铁木真","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cf0df21ca95edb3fa281792940a6729","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3432271782041032","authorIdStr":"3432271782041032"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$</a>put不让买，为什么？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$</a>put不让买，为什么？","text":"$标普500ETF(SPY)$put不让买，为什么？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/849726588","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4107,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":849728689,"gmtCreate":1635778480068,"gmtModify":1635778480068,"author":{"id":"3432271782041032","authorId":"3432271782041032","name":"铁木真","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cf0df21ca95edb3fa281792940a6729","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3432271782041032","authorIdStr":"3432271782041032"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$</a>今天put为啥买下了？差评。","listText":"<a 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或吃了反垄断政策红利","htmlText":"6月9日，生鲜电商领域双雄，每日优鲜和叮咚买菜同时提交招股书，分别计划在纳斯达克和纽交所上市。6月22日，双方又在同一天更新了招股书。原本双方都计划在6月底上市，6月23日，每日优鲜临时决定，上市提前到6月25日，叮咚买菜则维持在6月29日原计划上市。这种戏剧性的抢跑，充分表明了，每日优鲜志在抢夺生鲜电商第一股。三分钟了解每日优鲜招股书每日优鲜是中国生鲜电商前置仓模式的创造者和引领者，这家诞生于2014年10月的电商企业，2015年开始摸索前置仓模式，并将这一模式推进到16个城市，631个前置仓。根据招股书数据，它在前置仓生鲜电商这个细分领域占比是28%，在该模式的北方市场占据行业第一。不过，截止到2020年底，它的GMV只有76亿元，已经被后起之秀叮咚买菜远远甩开，后者同年GMV高达130亿，是每日优鲜的1.7倍。叮咚买菜诞生于2017年，比每日优鲜晚了3年，2018-2020年它的GMV分别是7.4亿、47.1亿、130.3亿，同期每日优鲜的GMV则分别是47.3亿、76亿、76.1亿。若以即时社区电商来看，每日优鲜的行业占比为5.9%，落后于叮咚买菜的10.1%。以收入计，2018-2020年，每日优鲜的年度收入分别为35.5亿、60亿、61.3亿；同期三年，叮咚买菜的收入分别是6.2亿、38.8亿、113.4亿。根据招股书显示，叮咚买菜2019年、2020年净亏损分别为18.734亿元、31.769亿元；而每日优鲜在2018、2019年和2020年三年的净亏损分别为22.316亿元、29.094亿元和16.492亿元。2020年，叮咚买菜选择亏损扩张，每日优鲜则选择了降本增效缩减亏损。以亏损占营收比例看，双方都有所降低。2019年叮咚买菜的亏损比例高达47.5%，2020年下降到27.9%。2019年每日优鲜亏损比例为48.5%，2020年下降到26.9%。2018","listText":"6月9日，生鲜电商领域双雄，每日优鲜和叮咚买菜同时提交招股书，分别计划在纳斯达克和纽交所上市。6月22日，双方又在同一天更新了招股书。原本双方都计划在6月底上市，6月23日，每日优鲜临时决定，上市提前到6月25日，叮咚买菜则维持在6月29日原计划上市。这种戏剧性的抢跑，充分表明了，每日优鲜志在抢夺生鲜电商第一股。三分钟了解每日优鲜招股书每日优鲜是中国生鲜电商前置仓模式的创造者和引领者，这家诞生于2014年10月的电商企业，2015年开始摸索前置仓模式，并将这一模式推进到16个城市，631个前置仓。根据招股书数据，它在前置仓生鲜电商这个细分领域占比是28%，在该模式的北方市场占据行业第一。不过，截止到2020年底，它的GMV只有76亿元，已经被后起之秀叮咚买菜远远甩开，后者同年GMV高达130亿，是每日优鲜的1.7倍。叮咚买菜诞生于2017年，比每日优鲜晚了3年，2018-2020年它的GMV分别是7.4亿、47.1亿、130.3亿，同期每日优鲜的GMV则分别是47.3亿、76亿、76.1亿。若以即时社区电商来看，每日优鲜的行业占比为5.9%，落后于叮咚买菜的10.1%。以收入计，2018-2020年，每日优鲜的年度收入分别为35.5亿、60亿、61.3亿；同期三年，叮咚买菜的收入分别是6.2亿、38.8亿、113.4亿。根据招股书显示，叮咚买菜2019年、2020年净亏损分别为18.734亿元、31.769亿元；而每日优鲜在2018、2019年和2020年三年的净亏损分别为22.316亿元、29.094亿元和16.492亿元。2020年，叮咚买菜选择亏损扩张，每日优鲜则选择了降本增效缩减亏损。以亏损占营收比例看，双方都有所降低。2019年叮咚买菜的亏损比例高达47.5%，2020年下降到27.9%。2019年每日优鲜亏损比例为48.5%，2020年下降到26.9%。2018","text":"6月9日，生鲜电商领域双雄，每日优鲜和叮咚买菜同时提交招股书，分别计划在纳斯达克和纽交所上市。6月22日，双方又在同一天更新了招股书。原本双方都计划在6月底上市，6月23日，每日优鲜临时决定，上市提前到6月25日，叮咚买菜则维持在6月29日原计划上市。这种戏剧性的抢跑，充分表明了，每日优鲜志在抢夺生鲜电商第一股。三分钟了解每日优鲜招股书每日优鲜是中国生鲜电商前置仓模式的创造者和引领者，这家诞生于2014年10月的电商企业，2015年开始摸索前置仓模式，并将这一模式推进到16个城市，631个前置仓。根据招股书数据，它在前置仓生鲜电商这个细分领域占比是28%，在该模式的北方市场占据行业第一。不过，截止到2020年底，它的GMV只有76亿元，已经被后起之秀叮咚买菜远远甩开，后者同年GMV高达130亿，是每日优鲜的1.7倍。叮咚买菜诞生于2017年，比每日优鲜晚了3年，2018-2020年它的GMV分别是7.4亿、47.1亿、130.3亿，同期每日优鲜的GMV则分别是47.3亿、76亿、76.1亿。若以即时社区电商来看，每日优鲜的行业占比为5.9%，落后于叮咚买菜的10.1%。以收入计，2018-2020年，每日优鲜的年度收入分别为35.5亿、60亿、61.3亿；同期三年，叮咚买菜的收入分别是6.2亿、38.8亿、113.4亿。根据招股书显示，叮咚买菜2019年、2020年净亏损分别为18.734亿元、31.769亿元；而每日优鲜在2018、2019年和2020年三年的净亏损分别为22.316亿元、29.094亿元和16.492亿元。2020年，叮咚买菜选择亏损扩张，每日优鲜则选择了降本增效缩减亏损。以亏损占营收比例看，双方都有所降低。2019年叮咚买菜的亏损比例高达47.5%，2020年下降到27.9%。2019年每日优鲜亏损比例为48.5%，2020年下降到26.9%。2018","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce3f55c4ceea4936cd30b61705265c3c","width":"955","height":"663"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6315054863faf284efe253340b91bb07","width":"1163","height":"751"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2fd7cbd32f3f046a32d26ad749f39e4","width":"1030","height":"732"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/122769934","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":8,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2292,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186635602,"gmtCreate":1623490505106,"gmtModify":1623490505106,"author":{"id":"3432271782041032","authorId":"3432271782041032","name":"铁木真","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cf0df21ca95edb3fa281792940a6729","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3432271782041032","authorIdStr":"3432271782041032"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"kokkoko","listText":"kokkoko","text":"kokkoko","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186635602","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":987,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}