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leon1993
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IP属地:重庆
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leon1993
2024-08-30
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
@FrankAllin:英伟达财报在即,如何构建期权组合获利
leon1993
2021-07-13
这个官司很好,起码有一方是真正为股东利益而战的(尽管这可能不是他们的最初出发点)
抱歉,原内容已删除
leon1993
2021-05-24
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看
@小虎周报:Doordash:后起之秀如何抢占美国外卖市场的半壁江山?
leon1993
2021-01-23
为什么 账户里没股票呢?
leon1993
2020-12-20
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看
@空军大队长:亏上千万,悲惨20年回顾
leon1993
2020-09-10
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看
@价值投资为王:中东小腾讯、净利率比肩茅台,社交软件Yalla或将带来打新盛宴
leon1993
2020-09-01
$Zoom(ZM)$
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
高估不是会下跌的理由[捂脸]
leon1993
2020-08-07
$跟谁学(GSX)$
你们感受一下这个期权有多贵[捂脸]
leon1993
2020-06-08
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看
@股神不是神:Q2会成为特斯拉历史上最糟糕的一个季度吗?
leon1993
2020-05-11
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看
抱歉,原内容已删除
leon1993
2020-04-16
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
这个心电图 机器人开始了?
leon1993
2020-04-14
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
[捂脸] 老美散户是不是封城在家没事猛炒tsla
leon1993
2020-04-03
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
提醒一下,今日周五大盘风险
leon1993
2020-03-25
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看
@smallnew小牛:【一个90后股民的自白】股票是怎么毁了我的人生前程的
leon1993
2020-03-04
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
今日最大利好,桑德斯冲击解除,花街可以稍微放心了
leon1993
2020-03-03
三德子很难有戏,如果是他出来,川总可以提前开香槟了[吃瓜]
leon1993
2020-02-21
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
难得一见跟大盘高度重合...
leon1993
2020-02-19
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
又要开启一波轧空行情吗?
leon1993
2020-02-15
$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 有点不明白,尾盘21号call的隐含波动率为何升高了?看好下周?
leon1993
2020-02-13
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看
@孟浩:钻石公主号确诊感染者达136人,母公司股价暴跌
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> 财报,将于今日盘后出炉,而市场也早已暗流涌动。 今天蹭个热点,来聊聊如何通过期权,来参与财报的机会。 事件驱动型机会 财报交易是典型的事件驱动型机会(Event-driving)。 财报发布属于一个Known Unknowns事件,即发生的时间确定,但影响的结果和幅度未知。 财报中的预期的变化 众所周知,股价交易的就是市场对公司的预期。 而财报,是一个预期的验证和重塑的过程。 在当前的股价上,反应了市场交易者对于公司的一个平均预期。 财报各项数据的揭露,是事实对于市场预期的一个验证过程。因此,财报披露后,市场预期会迅速地收敛,体现为股价的波动。若财报数据好于市场预期,则股价上涨;若财报数据低于市场预期,则体现为股价下跌。 此外,公司在披露上季度的财报数据后,一般会对下季度的经营情况作出一个指引,这就在预期的收敛之后,重塑了一个新的预期,指引市场预期往这个方向上去,股价也会随之变动。 市场的预期是什么? 市场预期并不完全等同于分析师的一致预期。我们经常看到财报虽然超出分析师预期,但股价依然下跌的情况,这表明市场真实预期与分析师预期存在差异。市场的预期往往较为模糊,只有在财报发布后才能真正得以揭示。 财报中的确定性和不确定性 既然市场的真实预期是不确定的,对于我们的分析而言,股价的涨跌也是难以预测的,那还有什么是确定的呢? 时间的确定性。 财报是一个Known Unknowns,既然财报公布的时间是确定的,那么财报后股价变动的事件也是确定的,那就是财报公布后的盘前盘后,以及开盘的一段时间内,预期收敛和重建的过程会在这段时间进行,也就是说股价往往会大幅度变动。 波动率的确定性。 因为财报是一个关乎预期收敛和重建的过程,那么股价的波动往往不可避免。 因此,市场在财报公","listText":"万众瞩目的 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> 财报,将于今日盘后出炉,而市场也早已暗流涌动。 今天蹭个热点,来聊聊如何通过期权,来参与财报的机会。 事件驱动型机会 财报交易是典型的事件驱动型机会(Event-driving)。 财报发布属于一个Known Unknowns事件,即发生的时间确定,但影响的结果和幅度未知。 财报中的预期的变化 众所周知,股价交易的就是市场对公司的预期。 而财报,是一个预期的验证和重塑的过程。 在当前的股价上,反应了市场交易者对于公司的一个平均预期。 财报各项数据的揭露,是事实对于市场预期的一个验证过程。因此,财报披露后,市场预期会迅速地收敛,体现为股价的波动。若财报数据好于市场预期,则股价上涨;若财报数据低于市场预期,则体现为股价下跌。 此外,公司在披露上季度的财报数据后,一般会对下季度的经营情况作出一个指引,这就在预期的收敛之后,重塑了一个新的预期,指引市场预期往这个方向上去,股价也会随之变动。 市场的预期是什么? 市场预期并不完全等同于分析师的一致预期。我们经常看到财报虽然超出分析师预期,但股价依然下跌的情况,这表明市场真实预期与分析师预期存在差异。市场的预期往往较为模糊,只有在财报发布后才能真正得以揭示。 财报中的确定性和不确定性 既然市场的真实预期是不确定的,对于我们的分析而言,股价的涨跌也是难以预测的,那还有什么是确定的呢? 时间的确定性。 财报是一个Known Unknowns,既然财报公布的时间是确定的,那么财报后股价变动的事件也是确定的,那就是财报公布后的盘前盘后,以及开盘的一段时间内,预期收敛和重建的过程会在这段时间进行,也就是说股价往往会大幅度变动。 波动率的确定性。 因为财报是一个关乎预期收敛和重建的过程,那么股价的波动往往不可避免。 因此,市场在财报公","text":"万众瞩目的 $英伟达(NVDA)$ 财报,将于今日盘后出炉,而市场也早已暗流涌动。 今天蹭个热点,来聊聊如何通过期权,来参与财报的机会。 事件驱动型机会 财报交易是典型的事件驱动型机会(Event-driving)。 财报发布属于一个Known Unknowns事件,即发生的时间确定,但影响的结果和幅度未知。 财报中的预期的变化 众所周知,股价交易的就是市场对公司的预期。 而财报,是一个预期的验证和重塑的过程。 在当前的股价上,反应了市场交易者对于公司的一个平均预期。 财报各项数据的揭露,是事实对于市场预期的一个验证过程。因此,财报披露后,市场预期会迅速地收敛,体现为股价的波动。若财报数据好于市场预期,则股价上涨;若财报数据低于市场预期,则体现为股价下跌。 此外,公司在披露上季度的财报数据后,一般会对下季度的经营情况作出一个指引,这就在预期的收敛之后,重塑了一个新的预期,指引市场预期往这个方向上去,股价也会随之变动。 市场的预期是什么? 市场预期并不完全等同于分析师的一致预期。我们经常看到财报虽然超出分析师预期,但股价依然下跌的情况,这表明市场真实预期与分析师预期存在差异。市场的预期往往较为模糊,只有在财报发布后才能真正得以揭示。 财报中的确定性和不确定性 既然市场的真实预期是不确定的,对于我们的分析而言,股价的涨跌也是难以预测的,那还有什么是确定的呢? 时间的确定性。 财报是一个Known Unknowns,既然财报公布的时间是确定的,那么财报后股价变动的事件也是确定的,那就是财报公布后的盘前盘后,以及开盘的一段时间内,预期收敛和重建的过程会在这段时间进行,也就是说股价往往会大幅度变动。 波动率的确定性。 因为财报是一个关乎预期收敛和重建的过程,那么股价的波动往往不可避免。 因此,市场在财报公","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dce3e58c3096cf7f55ac1c7f6d8912d0","width":"1179","height":"1400"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02b76653ea4706e0673734a6ed2400a1","width":"1179","height":"1796"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2306c24702c709bf6fe20024c90a5bc9","width":"1179","height":"1832"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343285657477400","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":8,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1018,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":142521079,"gmtCreate":1626163175491,"gmtModify":1626163175491,"author":{"id":"3463060012555946","authorId":"3463060012555946","name":"leon1993","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90fecd5e697645eb3b07c10287c92048","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3463060012555946","authorIdStr":"3463060012555946"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这个官司很好,起码有一方是真正为股东利益而战的(尽管这可能不是他们的最初出发点)","listText":"这个官司很好,起码有一方是真正为股东利益而战的(尽管这可能不是他们的最初出发点)","text":"这个官司很好,起码有一方是真正为股东利益而战的(尽管这可能不是他们的最初出发点)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/142521079","repostId":"1180738851","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2290,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":131495172,"gmtCreate":1621871589996,"gmtModify":1621871589996,"author":{"id":"3463060012555946","authorId":"3463060012555946","name":"leon1993","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90fecd5e697645eb3b07c10287c92048","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3463060012555946","authorIdStr":"3463060012555946"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/131495172","repostId":"131310676","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":131310676,"gmtCreate":1621826765892,"gmtModify":1744960685470,"author":{"id":"36979109942400","authorId":"36979109942400","name":"小虎周报","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/f7b172cf773c77a3f0df67695c126b51","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36979109942400","authorIdStr":"36979109942400"},"themes":[],"title":"Doordash:后起之秀如何抢占美国外卖市场的半壁江山?","htmlText":"疫情催化之下,限制隔离措施引发食品外卖服务需求激增,<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DASH\">$DoorDash, Inc.(DASH)$</a> 及其竞争对手Uber Eats、Grubhub和Postmates因此受益。 DoorDash作为全美最大的外卖配送平台,于12月9日登陆纽交所,公司一度将IPO定价区间由75-85美元上调至90-95美元,最终定价102美元。该股上市首日最终收于189.51美元,较发行价上涨86%,市值602亿美元,成为2020年美股市场上规模最大的IPO之一。 | 投资要点 抢占美国外卖配送市场的半壁江山 同GrubHub 和 Justeat 等早期的外卖平台一样,DoorDash也是以轻资产模式为主,通过地推等手段吸引商家入驻,顾客在平台上选择餐厅下单,商家自行配送,平台从用户付费中抽取佣金。 公司的市场份额在过去几年中迅速扩张,到2020年公司市场份额占有率接近50%,远远领先26%的UberEats、16%的Grubhub和7%的Postmates等其他同行,2020年因新冠疫情和随之而来的封锁而加速发展。 经济重启催生压力,Q1财报打消顾虑 Doordash营收连续几个季度以惊人的速度增长,并从同行手中夺走了大量市场份额,其激进的定价策略和易于使用的APP获得了顾客和商家的青睐。 公司的营收主要来自消费者支付的配送费以及向合作商家收取的佣金。虽然公司2020年的收入增速超过200%,但2021年收入增速可能有所放缓。随着美国各州重启经济,以及消费者重新在餐馆用餐,外卖用户增长、订单量和平均订单金额等指标将面临一定压力。 高客单价和强周边策略 Doordash与同行相比有两大优势:低于同行的Take rate和主攻郊区和周边。因此DoorDash拥有更广阔的市场和物流配送平","listText":"疫情催化之下,限制隔离措施引发食品外卖服务需求激增,<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DASH\">$DoorDash, Inc.(DASH)$</a> 及其竞争对手Uber Eats、Grubhub和Postmates因此受益。 DoorDash作为全美最大的外卖配送平台,于12月9日登陆纽交所,公司一度将IPO定价区间由75-85美元上调至90-95美元,最终定价102美元。该股上市首日最终收于189.51美元,较发行价上涨86%,市值602亿美元,成为2020年美股市场上规模最大的IPO之一。 | 投资要点 抢占美国外卖配送市场的半壁江山 同GrubHub 和 Justeat 等早期的外卖平台一样,DoorDash也是以轻资产模式为主,通过地推等手段吸引商家入驻,顾客在平台上选择餐厅下单,商家自行配送,平台从用户付费中抽取佣金。 公司的市场份额在过去几年中迅速扩张,到2020年公司市场份额占有率接近50%,远远领先26%的UberEats、16%的Grubhub和7%的Postmates等其他同行,2020年因新冠疫情和随之而来的封锁而加速发展。 经济重启催生压力,Q1财报打消顾虑 Doordash营收连续几个季度以惊人的速度增长,并从同行手中夺走了大量市场份额,其激进的定价策略和易于使用的APP获得了顾客和商家的青睐。 公司的营收主要来自消费者支付的配送费以及向合作商家收取的佣金。虽然公司2020年的收入增速超过200%,但2021年收入增速可能有所放缓。随着美国各州重启经济,以及消费者重新在餐馆用餐,外卖用户增长、订单量和平均订单金额等指标将面临一定压力。 高客单价和强周边策略 Doordash与同行相比有两大优势:低于同行的Take rate和主攻郊区和周边。因此DoorDash拥有更广阔的市场和物流配送平","text":"疫情催化之下,限制隔离措施引发食品外卖服务需求激增,$DoorDash, Inc.(DASH)$ 及其竞争对手Uber Eats、Grubhub和Postmates因此受益。 DoorDash作为全美最大的外卖配送平台,于12月9日登陆纽交所,公司一度将IPO定价区间由75-85美元上调至90-95美元,最终定价102美元。该股上市首日最终收于189.51美元,较发行价上涨86%,市值602亿美元,成为2020年美股市场上规模最大的IPO之一。 | 投资要点 抢占美国外卖配送市场的半壁江山 同GrubHub 和 Justeat 等早期的外卖平台一样,DoorDash也是以轻资产模式为主,通过地推等手段吸引商家入驻,顾客在平台上选择餐厅下单,商家自行配送,平台从用户付费中抽取佣金。 公司的市场份额在过去几年中迅速扩张,到2020年公司市场份额占有率接近50%,远远领先26%的UberEats、16%的Grubhub和7%的Postmates等其他同行,2020年因新冠疫情和随之而来的封锁而加速发展。 经济重启催生压力,Q1财报打消顾虑 Doordash营收连续几个季度以惊人的速度增长,并从同行手中夺走了大量市场份额,其激进的定价策略和易于使用的APP获得了顾客和商家的青睐。 公司的营收主要来自消费者支付的配送费以及向合作商家收取的佣金。虽然公司2020年的收入增速超过200%,但2021年收入增速可能有所放缓。随着美国各州重启经济,以及消费者重新在餐馆用餐,外卖用户增长、订单量和平均订单金额等指标将面临一定压力。 高客单价和强周边策略 Doordash与同行相比有两大优势:低于同行的Take rate和主攻郊区和周边。因此DoorDash拥有更广阔的市场和物流配送平","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ead69765b8c12cb4eef2ecc802fb270d","width":"676","height":"391"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d13dd139e9ab668afe1f57545c0064f8","width":"683","height":"411"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bd36466b50648ab1460bb6a19a54f00","width":"682","height":"468"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/131310676","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1910,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":310583790,"gmtCreate":1611332822310,"gmtModify":1703749999308,"author":{"id":"3463060012555946","authorId":"3463060012555946","name":"leon1993","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90fecd5e697645eb3b07c10287c92048","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3463060012555946","authorIdStr":"3463060012555946"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"为什么 账户里没股票呢?","listText":"为什么 账户里没股票呢?","text":"为什么 账户里没股票呢?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdef19f4d8ad08fb67ffed7021daccf0","width":"1080","height":"2656"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/310583790","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2709,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":330029647,"gmtCreate":1608451398589,"gmtModify":1703734996234,"author":{"id":"3463060012555946","authorId":"3463060012555946","name":"leon1993","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90fecd5e697645eb3b07c10287c92048","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3463060012555946","authorIdStr":"3463060012555946"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/330029647","repostId":"397777544","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":397777544,"gmtCreate":1608385795788,"gmtModify":1703734913139,"author":{"id":"74125836878304","authorId":"74125836878304","name":"空军大队长","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/491ac6b2de4e6f00b0c07853ca1c186b","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"74125836878304","authorIdStr":"74125836878304"},"themes":[],"title":"亏上千万,悲惨20年回顾","htmlText":"亏上千万,悲惨20年回顾“亏得差点下海”!如果非要用一句话总结回顾本年的投资经历,那就是这句了。“铁马晓嘶营壁冷,楼船夜渡风涛急,有谁怜。猿臂故将军,无功级!”特斯拉,痛心的做空操作在每一个孤独自责和悔恨的晚上。我都想起那不断掉血的账户,黑色幽默般的剧本总是以一种骨骼清奇的方式打开在我的面前。命运的导演告诉我,“大队长,你是男主角,该你表演了!”“这次,给你挑选了一个弱鸡大反派,他和贾跃亭很像,就叫他马跃亭吧!”“贾跃亭知道吧,那个跌了99%的贾跃亭!”“他的公司极端高估,销量脆弱,品控稀烂,但市值却赶上了丰田!”“这是一个极端巧妙放空的位置,你的队友是华尔街的对冲基金,200亿刀的空头列阵在前!”于是我提上裤子就果断做空,因为我深知,做空泡沫资产是快速实现暴富的手段。特斯拉春季的暴跌腰斩,也不过短短数日而已。泡沫必然破灭,我欣然在特斯拉的涨势中不断追加保证·金。后来的事情大家都知道了,在我爆仓的那一刻,我想起那句“我部悍将刘三刀,三刀之内必斩吕布”!以上就是我本年度第一个印象深刻的操作,社区的兄弟都很熟悉。我本以为,做空特斯拉不过是看得见的捡钱机会。擂台上和我对战的马跃亭不过是马保国而已,哪知我一上去,马保国变成了拳王马特西。偷袭我三十多岁的小同志,这样好吗?这样不好。其实我真的是一个老实人,希望通过投资的胜利挣本份钱。成大事者胸中必有千般韬略,赢得资本市场的财务自由,挟飞仙以遨游,抱明月而长终。这何曾不是我的梦想!但是无数次重复的失败却让我差点下海,接受钢丝球的考验。不仅特斯拉,另一个印象深刻的操作就是负油价之夜前做多原油。很多社区兄弟还给我点赞了的。所以在负油价之夜前,那个时候我持有原油的多头仓位,并且信心满满。傅大师的话音犹在耳,“商品是有价值的”,“成本区域商品价值的天然防线”。40块成本的油现价20块。傻子也知道买就完事了,不信它还能跌到0?那几天我还喊多原油,","listText":"亏上千万,悲惨20年回顾“亏得差点下海”!如果非要用一句话总结回顾本年的投资经历,那就是这句了。“铁马晓嘶营壁冷,楼船夜渡风涛急,有谁怜。猿臂故将军,无功级!”特斯拉,痛心的做空操作在每一个孤独自责和悔恨的晚上。我都想起那不断掉血的账户,黑色幽默般的剧本总是以一种骨骼清奇的方式打开在我的面前。命运的导演告诉我,“大队长,你是男主角,该你表演了!”“这次,给你挑选了一个弱鸡大反派,他和贾跃亭很像,就叫他马跃亭吧!”“贾跃亭知道吧,那个跌了99%的贾跃亭!”“他的公司极端高估,销量脆弱,品控稀烂,但市值却赶上了丰田!”“这是一个极端巧妙放空的位置,你的队友是华尔街的对冲基金,200亿刀的空头列阵在前!”于是我提上裤子就果断做空,因为我深知,做空泡沫资产是快速实现暴富的手段。特斯拉春季的暴跌腰斩,也不过短短数日而已。泡沫必然破灭,我欣然在特斯拉的涨势中不断追加保证·金。后来的事情大家都知道了,在我爆仓的那一刻,我想起那句“我部悍将刘三刀,三刀之内必斩吕布”!以上就是我本年度第一个印象深刻的操作,社区的兄弟都很熟悉。我本以为,做空特斯拉不过是看得见的捡钱机会。擂台上和我对战的马跃亭不过是马保国而已,哪知我一上去,马保国变成了拳王马特西。偷袭我三十多岁的小同志,这样好吗?这样不好。其实我真的是一个老实人,希望通过投资的胜利挣本份钱。成大事者胸中必有千般韬略,赢得资本市场的财务自由,挟飞仙以遨游,抱明月而长终。这何曾不是我的梦想!但是无数次重复的失败却让我差点下海,接受钢丝球的考验。不仅特斯拉,另一个印象深刻的操作就是负油价之夜前做多原油。很多社区兄弟还给我点赞了的。所以在负油价之夜前,那个时候我持有原油的多头仓位,并且信心满满。傅大师的话音犹在耳,“商品是有价值的”,“成本区域商品价值的天然防线”。40块成本的油现价20块。傻子也知道买就完事了,不信它还能跌到0?那几天我还喊多原油,","text":"亏上千万,悲惨20年回顾“亏得差点下海”!如果非要用一句话总结回顾本年的投资经历,那就是这句了。“铁马晓嘶营壁冷,楼船夜渡风涛急,有谁怜。猿臂故将军,无功级!”特斯拉,痛心的做空操作在每一个孤独自责和悔恨的晚上。我都想起那不断掉血的账户,黑色幽默般的剧本总是以一种骨骼清奇的方式打开在我的面前。命运的导演告诉我,“大队长,你是男主角,该你表演了!”“这次,给你挑选了一个弱鸡大反派,他和贾跃亭很像,就叫他马跃亭吧!”“贾跃亭知道吧,那个跌了99%的贾跃亭!”“他的公司极端高估,销量脆弱,品控稀烂,但市值却赶上了丰田!”“这是一个极端巧妙放空的位置,你的队友是华尔街的对冲基金,200亿刀的空头列阵在前!”于是我提上裤子就果断做空,因为我深知,做空泡沫资产是快速实现暴富的手段。特斯拉春季的暴跌腰斩,也不过短短数日而已。泡沫必然破灭,我欣然在特斯拉的涨势中不断追加保证·金。后来的事情大家都知道了,在我爆仓的那一刻,我想起那句“我部悍将刘三刀,三刀之内必斩吕布”!以上就是我本年度第一个印象深刻的操作,社区的兄弟都很熟悉。我本以为,做空特斯拉不过是看得见的捡钱机会。擂台上和我对战的马跃亭不过是马保国而已,哪知我一上去,马保国变成了拳王马特西。偷袭我三十多岁的小同志,这样好吗?这样不好。其实我真的是一个老实人,希望通过投资的胜利挣本份钱。成大事者胸中必有千般韬略,赢得资本市场的财务自由,挟飞仙以遨游,抱明月而长终。这何曾不是我的梦想!但是无数次重复的失败却让我差点下海,接受钢丝球的考验。不仅特斯拉,另一个印象深刻的操作就是负油价之夜前做多原油。很多社区兄弟还给我点赞了的。所以在负油价之夜前,那个时候我持有原油的多头仓位,并且信心满满。傅大师的话音犹在耳,“商品是有价值的”,“成本区域商品价值的天然防线”。40块成本的油现价20块。傻子也知道买就完事了,不信它还能跌到0?那几天我还喊多原油,","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a787585509b03b31daf242c8b5f4b207","width":"660","height":"1173"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ced6298199e702bb564196c56a63c4bc","width":"660","height":"1173"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89406cfa984baaf8b4de26eda51264a0","width":"400","height":"379"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/397777544","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":10,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2016,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":976218328,"gmtCreate":1599735793264,"gmtModify":1703819526537,"author":{"id":"3463060012555946","authorId":"3463060012555946","name":"leon1993","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90fecd5e697645eb3b07c10287c92048","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3463060012555946","authorIdStr":"3463060012555946"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"h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Store。 在语音社交基础上,Yalla顺势推出在线游戏,盈利模式和成长路线与腾讯十分相似,被称之为“中东小腾讯”。 截止2020年6月30日,Yalla月活用户数达到1246万人,付费用户数536万人,虽然规模很mini,但上半年Yalla的净利润达到了2520万美元,净利率47.8%,比肩贵州茅台48.2%的净利率水准,可谓暴利! Yalla,让土豪爽到停不下来 中东和北非是一个小众的社交市场,总人口约2.47亿,由10个国家构成,以阿拉伯语为主。 如此小众的市场,意味着社交巨头如Facebook、WhatsApp等很难兼顾到本土文化需求,又因为市场规模较小,巨头们也懒得下场赚这几个铜钱。 因此,目前活跃的语音聊天软件多以小公司为主,根据 App Annie的统计数据,主打语音聊天的APP在17款左右,Yalla是其中收入规模最大的一个。 Yalla的创始人杨涛曾在中兴通讯负责中东地区的业务,并工作了10年之久,对中东当地的人文习俗十分熟悉,于2016年创立了Yalla。 Yalla的业务模式并不难理解,主要依靠虚拟礼物、VIP服务等获取收入,与当下的虎牙等直播平台较为类似。 但由于中东地区特殊的社会文化,视频聊天并不符合习俗,语音聊天更容易让用户接受。 在中东和北非,当地的人们有一种“议会(Majlis)”文化,一些家人朋友喜欢围坐在一起,或聊天打屁、或载歌载舞,强调众乐乐,而非东方文化的一言堂。 比如Yalla上,语音聊天室中几乎每个人都有上麦的机会,而我们常用的视频直播软件,基本只有当观众的份。 除了爱聊天,中东土豪在线下社交活动中,还特别喜欢互相送礼物,这种爱好,迁移到线上的时候,用户花钱买礼物互相赠送十分自然。 想象下这个场景: 一名新用户进入","listText":"Yalla是一款语音聊天APP,主要服务中东和北非10国,因为独具匠心的产品设计,深得中东土豪眷恋,屡屡霸榜App Store。 在语音社交基础上,Yalla顺势推出在线游戏,盈利模式和成长路线与腾讯十分相似,被称之为“中东小腾讯”。 截止2020年6月30日,Yalla月活用户数达到1246万人,付费用户数536万人,虽然规模很mini,但上半年Yalla的净利润达到了2520万美元,净利率47.8%,比肩贵州茅台48.2%的净利率水准,可谓暴利! Yalla,让土豪爽到停不下来 中东和北非是一个小众的社交市场,总人口约2.47亿,由10个国家构成,以阿拉伯语为主。 如此小众的市场,意味着社交巨头如Facebook、WhatsApp等很难兼顾到本土文化需求,又因为市场规模较小,巨头们也懒得下场赚这几个铜钱。 因此,目前活跃的语音聊天软件多以小公司为主,根据 App Annie的统计数据,主打语音聊天的APP在17款左右,Yalla是其中收入规模最大的一个。 Yalla的创始人杨涛曾在中兴通讯负责中东地区的业务,并工作了10年之久,对中东当地的人文习俗十分熟悉,于2016年创立了Yalla。 Yalla的业务模式并不难理解,主要依靠虚拟礼物、VIP服务等获取收入,与当下的虎牙等直播平台较为类似。 但由于中东地区特殊的社会文化,视频聊天并不符合习俗,语音聊天更容易让用户接受。 在中东和北非,当地的人们有一种“议会(Majlis)”文化,一些家人朋友喜欢围坐在一起,或聊天打屁、或载歌载舞,强调众乐乐,而非东方文化的一言堂。 比如Yalla上,语音聊天室中几乎每个人都有上麦的机会,而我们常用的视频直播软件,基本只有当观众的份。 除了爱聊天,中东土豪在线下社交活动中,还特别喜欢互相送礼物,这种爱好,迁移到线上的时候,用户花钱买礼物互相赠送十分自然。 想象下这个场景: 一名新用户进入","text":"Yalla是一款语音聊天APP,主要服务中东和北非10国,因为独具匠心的产品设计,深得中东土豪眷恋,屡屡霸榜App Store。 在语音社交基础上,Yalla顺势推出在线游戏,盈利模式和成长路线与腾讯十分相似,被称之为“中东小腾讯”。 截止2020年6月30日,Yalla月活用户数达到1246万人,付费用户数536万人,虽然规模很mini,但上半年Yalla的净利润达到了2520万美元,净利率47.8%,比肩贵州茅台48.2%的净利率水准,可谓暴利! Yalla,让土豪爽到停不下来 中东和北非是一个小众的社交市场,总人口约2.47亿,由10个国家构成,以阿拉伯语为主。 如此小众的市场,意味着社交巨头如Facebook、WhatsApp等很难兼顾到本土文化需求,又因为市场规模较小,巨头们也懒得下场赚这几个铜钱。 因此,目前活跃的语音聊天软件多以小公司为主,根据 App Annie的统计数据,主打语音聊天的APP在17款左右,Yalla是其中收入规模最大的一个。 Yalla的创始人杨涛曾在中兴通讯负责中东地区的业务,并工作了10年之久,对中东当地的人文习俗十分熟悉,于2016年创立了Yalla。 Yalla的业务模式并不难理解,主要依靠虚拟礼物、VIP服务等获取收入,与当下的虎牙等直播平台较为类似。 但由于中东地区特殊的社会文化,视频聊天并不符合习俗,语音聊天更容易让用户接受。 在中东和北非,当地的人们有一种“议会(Majlis)”文化,一些家人朋友喜欢围坐在一起,或聊天打屁、或载歌载舞,强调众乐乐,而非东方文化的一言堂。 比如Yalla上,语音聊天室中几乎每个人都有上麦的机会,而我们常用的视频直播软件,基本只有当观众的份。 除了爱聊天,中东土豪在线下社交活动中,还特别喜欢互相送礼物,这种爱好,迁移到线上的时候,用户花钱买礼物互相赠送十分自然。 想象下这个场景: 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">$跟谁学(GSX)$</a>你们感受一下这个期权有多贵[捂脸] ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">$跟谁学(GSX)$</a>你们感受一下这个期权有多贵[捂脸] ","text":"$跟谁学(GSX)$你们感受一下这个期权有多贵[捂脸]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc989a6f2adb392fc3e56ad478507a39","width":"1080","height":"2340"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dbeade929eac1b08eca305c081d6d60","width":"1080","height":"2340"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a74cab3151e8ce42e6a4113d70093bb","width":"1080","height":"2340"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/944127441","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4251,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":956102243,"gmtCreate":1591607949282,"gmtModify":1704196067091,"author":{"id":"3463060012555946","authorId":"3463060012555946","name":"leon1993","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90fecd5e697645eb3b07c10287c92048","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3463060012555946","authorIdStr":"3463060012555946"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/956102243","repostId":"958849306","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":958849306,"gmtCreate":1591236764205,"gmtModify":1704194944809,"author":{"id":"3496272380555209","authorId":"3496272380555209","name":"股神不是神","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db2524dfea0770b8102dd44b4caca1d5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3496272380555209","authorIdStr":"3496272380555209"},"themes":[],"title":"Q2会成为特斯拉历史上最糟糕的一个季度吗?","htmlText":"本文译自GLJ Research关于特斯拉的研究报告在中国因疫情造成的封锁结束后,3月份<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> 在中国的销量环比大增449%,但 4月份在中国的销量环比下降了34.8%(这让很多特斯拉的看涨者感到失望,因为四月份特斯拉面临的竞争更加激烈。)<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00285\">$比亚迪电子(00285)$</a> 欧盟总注册量:在已报告2020年5月注册量的六个欧盟国家中,特斯拉的“已售出”所有汽车的月度环比下降13.9%,同比下降67.8%。在这六个欧盟国家的第二季度前两个月,注册量环比下降22.8%,同比下降67.8%。欧盟电动汽车总市场份额:特斯拉的欧盟总市场份额从2019年第四季度的37.2%降至2020年第一季度的25.3%。NO + NL + SP注册:2020年第二季度,特斯拉的市场份额下降至3.8%,而第一季度为7.7%,2019年第四季度为35.6%。换句话说,特斯拉在曾经占据主导地位的三个主要欧盟市场中已经失去了重要的市场份额。注:NO指挪威;NL指荷兰;SP指西班牙NO + NL + SP注册(更详细的观察):在2020年第二季度的前63天中,这三个国家/地区的销售总额环比下降34.7%,同比下降68.8%。Model 3追踪:根据TroyTeslike的Model 3追踪,在2020年第二季度的前63天中,Model 3的配置比上季度下降87.3%,比去年同期下降86.7%。Model Y追踪:根据Tr","listText":"本文译自GLJ Research关于特斯拉的研究报告在中国因疫情造成的封锁结束后,3月份<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> 在中国的销量环比大增449%,但 4月份在中国的销量环比下降了34.8%(这让很多特斯拉的看涨者感到失望,因为四月份特斯拉面临的竞争更加激烈。)<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00285\">$比亚迪电子(00285)$</a> 欧盟总注册量:在已报告2020年5月注册量的六个欧盟国家中,特斯拉的“已售出”所有汽车的月度环比下降13.9%,同比下降67.8%。在这六个欧盟国家的第二季度前两个月,注册量环比下降22.8%,同比下降67.8%。欧盟电动汽车总市场份额:特斯拉的欧盟总市场份额从2019年第四季度的37.2%降至2020年第一季度的25.3%。NO + NL + SP注册:2020年第二季度,特斯拉的市场份额下降至3.8%,而第一季度为7.7%,2019年第四季度为35.6%。换句话说,特斯拉在曾经占据主导地位的三个主要欧盟市场中已经失去了重要的市场份额。注:NO指挪威;NL指荷兰;SP指西班牙NO + NL + SP注册(更详细的观察):在2020年第二季度的前63天中,这三个国家/地区的销售总额环比下降34.7%,同比下降68.8%。Model 3追踪:根据TroyTeslike的Model 3追踪,在2020年第二季度的前63天中,Model 3的配置比上季度下降87.3%,比去年同期下降86.7%。Model Y追踪:根据Tr","text":"本文译自GLJ Research关于特斯拉的研究报告在中国因疫情造成的封锁结束后,3月份$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 在中国的销量环比大增449%,但 4月份在中国的销量环比下降了34.8%(这让很多特斯拉的看涨者感到失望,因为四月份特斯拉面临的竞争更加激烈。)$蔚来(NIO)$$比亚迪电子(00285)$ 欧盟总注册量:在已报告2020年5月注册量的六个欧盟国家中,特斯拉的“已售出”所有汽车的月度环比下降13.9%,同比下降67.8%。在这六个欧盟国家的第二季度前两个月,注册量环比下降22.8%,同比下降67.8%。欧盟电动汽车总市场份额:特斯拉的欧盟总市场份额从2019年第四季度的37.2%降至2020年第一季度的25.3%。NO + NL + SP注册:2020年第二季度,特斯拉的市场份额下降至3.8%,而第一季度为7.7%,2019年第四季度为35.6%。换句话说,特斯拉在曾经占据主导地位的三个主要欧盟市场中已经失去了重要的市场份额。注:NO指挪威;NL指荷兰;SP指西班牙NO + NL + SP注册(更详细的观察):在2020年第二季度的前63天中,这三个国家/地区的销售总额环比下降34.7%,同比下降68.8%。Model 3追踪:根据TroyTeslike的Model 3追踪,在2020年第二季度的前63天中,Model 3的配置比上季度下降87.3%,比去年同期下降86.7%。Model 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有点不明白,尾盘21号call的隐含波动率为何升高了?看好下周?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/917660740","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2499,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":917020625,"gmtCreate":1581529554567,"gmtModify":1704344483871,"author":{"id":"3463060012555946","authorId":"3463060012555946","name":"leon1993","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90fecd5e697645eb3b07c10287c92048","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3463060012555946","authorIdStr":"3463060012555946"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/917020625","repostId":"914590810","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":914590810,"gmtCreate":1581387260229,"gmtModify":1704343996549,"author":{"id":"58341441844653","authorId":"58341441844653","name":"孟浩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3af5b59c3e4676ee72cb6e0fea0279b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"58341441844653","authorIdStr":"58341441844653"},"themes":[],"title":"钻石公主号确诊感染者达136人,母公司股价暴跌","htmlText":"自1月20日以来,受到中国新型冠状病毒影响,基于对邮轮行业前景担忧,嘉年华邮轮公司已下跌将近20%,这篇文章想与大家探讨一下新型冠状病毒对嘉年华邮轮公司的影响。 钻石公主号—危险的旅程 钻石公主号隶属于公主邮轮旗下运营的邮轮,它于2004年正式投入运营, 2018年以后,钻石公主号再次来到东南亚和东亚,往来于日本、韩国、新加坡、越南、台湾和马来西亚之间。它是设施最完善的世界顶级豪华邮轮之一,被誉为“移动的海上五星级酒店”。“钻石公主号”邮轮于1月20日从横滨启程,1月22日停靠鹿儿岛,1月25日抵达香港,2月1日停靠那霸,然后回到横滨。船上载有2666名乘客和1045名船员,合计3711人,乘客中半数为日本人,其他人来自50多个国家和地区。也正是1月20日这一天有一名80岁的香港老人搭乘钻石公主号回香港,在航行了5天后,老人于 1月25日在香港下船,1月30日开始发烧并就医,2月1日确诊新型冠状病毒。 2月3日晚钻石公主号在横滨港靠岸,并进行长达14天的隔离。截止2020年2月10日,确诊人数达136人。 嘉年华邮轮股价暴跌 而作为钻石公主号的母公司$嘉年华邮轮(CCL)$ ,受此消息影响,嘉年华邮轮公司在过去的20天时间大跌了将近20%,应该说此次疫情对于嘉年华邮轮公司的影响是巨大的。嘉年华邮轮公司于1972年在巴拿马成立,是世界上最大的邮轮公司之一。据估计,2018年嘉年华邮轮公司在邮轮行业收入中所占份额为8.9%,乘客比例为22.0%。嘉年华邮轮公司拥有26艘船舶。 嘉年华邮轮公司的商业模式 嘉年华邮轮公司的主要收入由2大类组成,一类是船票收入,像是餐厅,舞厅游泳池等公共设施一般包括在内,另一类是其他收入,包含了赌场,酒吧,温泉按摩等,除此之外,有时候在与当地旅行社对接的情况下,游客在当地消费后,邮轮公司还会获得旅行社的返点。以嘉年华邮轮公司为例,它的船票收入占到了总","listText":"自1月20日以来,受到中国新型冠状病毒影响,基于对邮轮行业前景担忧,嘉年华邮轮公司已下跌将近20%,这篇文章想与大家探讨一下新型冠状病毒对嘉年华邮轮公司的影响。 钻石公主号—危险的旅程 钻石公主号隶属于公主邮轮旗下运营的邮轮,它于2004年正式投入运营, 2018年以后,钻石公主号再次来到东南亚和东亚,往来于日本、韩国、新加坡、越南、台湾和马来西亚之间。它是设施最完善的世界顶级豪华邮轮之一,被誉为“移动的海上五星级酒店”。“钻石公主号”邮轮于1月20日从横滨启程,1月22日停靠鹿儿岛,1月25日抵达香港,2月1日停靠那霸,然后回到横滨。船上载有2666名乘客和1045名船员,合计3711人,乘客中半数为日本人,其他人来自50多个国家和地区。也正是1月20日这一天有一名80岁的香港老人搭乘钻石公主号回香港,在航行了5天后,老人于 1月25日在香港下船,1月30日开始发烧并就医,2月1日确诊新型冠状病毒。 2月3日晚钻石公主号在横滨港靠岸,并进行长达14天的隔离。截止2020年2月10日,确诊人数达136人。 嘉年华邮轮股价暴跌 而作为钻石公主号的母公司$嘉年华邮轮(CCL)$ ,受此消息影响,嘉年华邮轮公司在过去的20天时间大跌了将近20%,应该说此次疫情对于嘉年华邮轮公司的影响是巨大的。嘉年华邮轮公司于1972年在巴拿马成立,是世界上最大的邮轮公司之一。据估计,2018年嘉年华邮轮公司在邮轮行业收入中所占份额为8.9%,乘客比例为22.0%。嘉年华邮轮公司拥有26艘船舶。 嘉年华邮轮公司的商业模式 嘉年华邮轮公司的主要收入由2大类组成,一类是船票收入,像是餐厅,舞厅游泳池等公共设施一般包括在内,另一类是其他收入,包含了赌场,酒吧,温泉按摩等,除此之外,有时候在与当地旅行社对接的情况下,游客在当地消费后,邮轮公司还会获得旅行社的返点。以嘉年华邮轮公司为例,它的船票收入占到了总","text":"自1月20日以来,受到中国新型冠状病毒影响,基于对邮轮行业前景担忧,嘉年华邮轮公司已下跌将近20%,这篇文章想与大家探讨一下新型冠状病毒对嘉年华邮轮公司的影响。 钻石公主号—危险的旅程 钻石公主号隶属于公主邮轮旗下运营的邮轮,它于2004年正式投入运营, 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