undefined的个人主页 - 老虎社区

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IP属地：北京

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1主题

0勋章

08-23

$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 这走势看来稳了下周直接14了

07-23

一样的没想到港股这么弱溢价20个点还是止不住跌

07-23

$东方电气(01072)$ 溢价20个点明天股怎么走

07-09

$新火科技控股(01611)$ 奔着十块去的[冷漠]

06-26

$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 今晚的量不给力感觉还没有被大机构关注一单热度上来那不就重回30吗目前能站稳就行了

03-19

$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 老虎应该到30U 才对

2024-10-12

$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 评论区每天都是抄短线投机的人老虎绝对是熊市价值投资首选宽松的政策会让券商点火就着如今外汇监控这么紧缩的情况下老虎还在稳步增长未来可期 20是老虎最低的目标如果未来外资流入投资政策宽松那将是不可估量

2024-10-10

$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 这个位置可以了没上车的可以上了我上的早了一些不过没关系

2024-10-09

$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 全仓干了再上车[害羞]

2024-10-07

$尚乘数科(HKD)$ 这是个妖股啊起飞起来不得了

2024-10-05

$雾芯科技(RLX)$ 这玩意搞不好爆拉几天埋伏一点

2024-10-05

$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 周末一觉醒来挂低了算了落袋为安过个周末

2024-10-04

$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 赚一点先落袋一点

2022-12-08

$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$ 莎比咋上去咋下来

2022-11-17

$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$ 干吧不是底也是底

2022-11-11

都没人关注了么？

财报前瞻 | 绩前机构一致唱好！“跌不停”的阿里价值重估在即？

2022-08-11

$大健云仓(GCT)$跨境电商中优势是什么

2022-07-21

$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$有戏买少了没钱了把钱都买房了.省点还被滴滴套着

2022-06-24

$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$感觉要起来了

2022-06-10

$老虎证券(TIGR)$哎7块钱没卖现在又不得不用钱哎

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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奔着十块去的[冷漠]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/454839679504584","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":896,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":450230788354344,"gmtCreate":1750948445527,"gmtModify":1750948446662,"author":{"id":"3465039675788441","authorId":"3465039675788441","name":"undefined","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f3bb693c3070c17c8ad782566ac8eb8","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3465039675788441","authorIdStr":"3465039675788441"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$ </a> 今晚的量不给力 感觉还没有被大机构关注 一单热度上来那不就重回30吗 目前能站稳就行了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$ </a> 今晚的量不给力 感觉还没有被大机构关注 一单热度上来那不就重回30吗 目前能站稳就行了","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 今晚的量不给力 感觉还没有被大机构关注 一单热度上来那不就重回30吗 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referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>核心电商：传统优势在夯实，新优势在构建</b></p><p>电商是阿里的核心业务，在营收占比约七成。面临外部的不确定性，阿里电商基本盘的稳健，一方面体现在传统优势在夯实，包括其消费者心智强，商业效率高，供给最丰富；另一方面源自新的优势在构建，包括增强供应链能力建设，内容化持续进展，消费体验在提升等带来的增量势能。在国内消费复苏、尤其是线上消费发展强劲的背景下，淘系将进一步成为商家经营主阵地，进而激发更多潜力、发挥出更多商业价值。</p><p>如今对于主播与商家而言，淘系正在形成“从交易到消费”的一个生态，最大化提升客群质量和消费者黏性，而非一个单纯的销售平台。这是与其他市场玩家最不同的地方。</p><p>淘系生态的优势在于用户全生命周期的价值最大化。这背后与其长期能力积累息息相关。在上一季的财报分析师电话会上，阿里巴巴集团董事会主席兼首席执行官张勇直言不讳：<b>直播是技术，电商是产业。</b></p><p><b>从GMV看，经历了过去两个季度的承压下跌，机构普遍预测将有边际复苏。</b></p><p>在直播成为电商增量战场的当下，淘宝对不同量级的主播、达人的高吸引力成为其生态的另一发展势能。与抖音、快手相比，淘宝布局直播最早，客户群体数量最大、转化率也最高。双11之前，罗永浩、俞敏洪等达人及主播悉数在淘宝开播。头部高人气主播对成交额带来了直观而明显的拉动作用。预售首小时，102个品牌成交额过亿元，3000个品牌成交额翻倍增长。</p><p>淘宝直播的腰部主播、新主播也出现了很大的增量，预售引导金额分别有365%、684%同比增长；直播机构的预售引导金额，也有165%的同比增长。</p><p><b>新业务方面阿里也在持续降本增效、寻求增量。</b>2022年6月份季度业绩显示，淘宝及淘特上M2C（工厂直接面向消费者）商品产生的支付GMV同比增长超过40%。社区电商品牌淘菜菜则通过迅速进驻人口密度较高且具有可观购买力的地区，在6月份季度GMV同比增长超过200%。</p><p>这些数据都显示出，淘系聚焦不同消费群体在进行用户分层、分类运营，接下来，多元消费矩阵将促进不同消费群体钱包份额的增长，进一步带来客群的拓展和黏性提高。</p><p>外部来看，国内消费正在复苏，淘宝天猫平台将看到更多商业确定性与增长潜力。国家统计局数据显示，今年前三季度，社会消费品零售总额同比增长0.7%。其中，全国实物商品网上零售额同比增长6.1%，增速明显快于社会消费品零售总额。</p><p>四季度开始，全国多地出台了各方面的促消费政策，包括新能源车、绿色智能家电、加大线上促销力度等。例如，上海宣布以2亿元财政补贴范围覆盖电冰箱、电视机、洗碗机等八大类一级能效家电。</p><p>被压制的消费潜力已经在释放。今年天猫双11甫一开售，仅用时1秒，消费者就买走了10个亿的iPhone手机，首小时超过去年双11全天。家电方面，以海尔为例，在天猫开卖仅5分钟，销售额破10亿，足见天猫的爆发效率远超同行。</p><p><b>云计算等待价值实现</b></p><p>在阿里的三条主赛道中，云计算与其未来的增长息息相关。随着数字化技术的深化发展和企业上云的进一步拓展，阿里云的先发优势和技术竞争力十分明显，短期需求波动后，将借助结构的持续优化对收入和估值形成重要贡献。</p><p>阿里云对于阿里的未来增长贡献可以参考AWS之于亚马逊。2022年二季度，亚马逊AWS的收入为197亿美元，同比增长33%；而阿里云业务季度收入同比增长10%至176.85亿元，连续7个季度实现盈利。</p><p>行业研究机构Gartner数据显示，2021年全球云计算市场增长到了908.9亿美元的规模。这意味着无论是始于2002年的AWS，还是创建于2009年的阿里云，都仍有着巨大的发展空间和扩张潜力，收入和利润的增长空间很大。</p><p>Gartner发布的2021年全球云计算IaaS市场份额数据还显示，阿里云排名全球第三，仅在亚马逊、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT.US\">微软</a>之后，市场份额为9.55%，连续六年实现份额增长；同时，阿里云排名亚太市场第一，市场份额为25.53%。</p><p>从AWS的客户分布来看，其客户构成横跨酒店和旅行、媒体娱乐、电信、金融服务、医疗、制造、能源等各个行业，今年二季度官宣的新客户就包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL.US\">达美航空</a>、英国最大的电信公司BT（大英电信）以及华尔街知名投行杰富瑞。</p><p>回看阿里云，二季度，阿里云来自非互联网行业的客户收入占总收入的比例达到53%，较去年同期上升超5个百分点。<b>多家机构认为，对阿里云而言，来自非互联网行业的收入增长以及潜在的国际扩张可以为长期增长提供动力。</b></p><p>11月4日的2022云栖大会云原生数据库峰会上，相关数据库负责人表示，中国人寿使用阿里云自研的PolarDB数据库，已经支撑公司数十套金融核心系统，实现了关键核心技术的敏捷可控。随着阿里云在产品丰富度、行业覆盖度、性能等方面的不断提升，更多企业的上云需求得到充分释放，云计算将给阿里的利润增长、业务拓展等带来更加深远的影响。</p><p>从底层逻辑来说，云计算的发展离不开长期技术的投入和不断革新突破，阿里通过率先自研CPU芯片、升级功效，在技术方面拥有较雄厚的资源和优势。今年9月，阿里宣布向云计算部门投资10亿美元，这笔投资是向对其未来增长至关重要的部分业务注入了关键资金，华尔街认为，近年来阿里在云计算领域的投入已使其建立起与亚马逊和微软(MSFT)相媲美的业务。</p><p>2021年云栖大会，阿里平头哥发布首颗自研CPU芯片倚天710，该芯片针对云场景研发，同时兼顾了性能与易用性；到了今年的云栖大会，阿里宣布倚天710已大规模应用，阿里云未来两年20%的新增算力将使用自研CPU，这是阿里算力攻坚的重要突破。</p><p>目前，倚天710已在阿里云数据中心大规模部署，并以云的形式服务阿里巴巴和多家互联网科技公司，算力性价比提升超30%，单位算力功耗降低60%。</p><p><b>出海，重要的引擎之一！</b></p><p>新的增长故事中，出海也是重要的引擎之一。今年二季度，阿里的国际业务中，国际零售商业业务收入为105.24亿元；跨境电商Lazada在东南亚的订单录得10%的同比增长；IaaS市场也在不断向外延伸，5月20日，阿里云宣布位于泰国的云数据中心正式启用，这是阿里云在东南亚的第10座数据中心。至此，阿里云在全球27个地域运营着84个可用区。</p><p>东南亚始终是阿里的出海前沿，也用实际的增长证明了其业务上的发展潜力。在2021阿里巴巴投资者日上，阿里云智能总裁张建锋表示，阿里云的东南亚市场营收增长超60%，这一增速远超国内。今年8月，阿里巴巴以约1亿美元的现金对价收购了印度尼西亚电信运营商PT Smart Telecom(Smartfren)6%的股份，在此基础上迅速进一步介入东南亚这一全球增速最快的数据中心市场。</p><p><span style=\"color:rgba(131,41,34,1);\">综上，从消费、云计算和全球化三条主赛道看，阿里依然在行业占据很强的优势地位，且均在不断投入、持续增长。在外部环境向好、业务稳健增长、利润表现或超预期的背景下，可以期待市场将带来阿里的估值修复和长期价值的兑现，并进而引领中概股整体的价值重估。</span></p><blockquote>绩前，国内机构一致唱好</blockquote><p>国内不少机构对阿里2023财年第二财季的业绩作出预测。<b>国海证券预计</b>，<span style=\"color:rgba(139,43,36,1);\">第二财季阿里将实现总营收2,067亿元（YoY+3%，QoQ+1%），经调整 EBITA同比提升5%至296亿元，经调整 EBITA margin为14%。</span></p><p>具体到细分业务，该机构预计中国商业业务实现营收1,377亿元（YoY+5%，QoQ-3%），中国商业经调整EBITA margin为30%；国际商业业务预计营收155亿元（YoY+3%，QoQ+0%），国际商业经调整EBITA margin为-12%；云计算业务预计营收220亿元（YoY+10%，QoQ+24%），云计算经调整EBITA margin为2%。</p><p><b>安信证券分析，</b>阿里在降本增效、核心电商业务逐步恢复以及新业务持续减亏驱动下调整后EBITA有望重拾增长。<span style=\"color:rgba(139,43,36,1);\">预计公司2QFY23收入同比+3.7%至2082亿元，季度内整体调整后EBITA同比+2.0%至286亿元，维持买入-A评级，美股/港股SOTP目标价至143美元/139港元。</span></p><p><b>东吴证券表示：</b>本季度疫情影响总体减弱，各项业务逐渐恢复，<span style=\"color:rgba(143,44,36,1);\">我们预计阿里巴巴FY2023Q2收入同比上升3.5%达到2077亿元，预计经调整EBITA为297亿元，同比上升6%，Adj-EBITAMargin为14.3%。</span></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>财报前瞻 | 绩前机构一致唱好！“跌不停”的阿里价值重估在即？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n财报前瞻 | 绩前机构一致唱好！“跌不停”的阿里价值重估在即？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-11-10 15:01</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><b>摘要：</b><b>绩前，阿里获机构“齐声”唱好！从消费、云计算和全球化三条主赛道看，阿里依然在行业占据很强的优势地位。彭博预计阿里2QFY23营收为2092.44亿元人民币；调整后净利润为292.89亿元人民币。</b></blockquote><p>阿里巴巴将于11月17日发布2023财年第二季度业绩，根据彭博一致预期，阿里巴巴2023财年第二季度营收为2092.44亿元人民币；调整后净利润为292.89亿元人民币。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bfc584e665e0bd56de2b48fad1c2d3f\" tg-width=\"983\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><blockquote><b>基本盘是否稳定？解析阿里三大核心赛道</b></blockquote><p>在经历去年的大跌之后，阿里巴巴股价仍然从年初至今已下跌超40%，有些投资者怀疑，是不是阿里巴巴核心业务出了什么问题？要判断阿里的基本盘是否稳定，需要从其三大主赛道的基本面、布局、挑战和未来发展潜力入手。（<b>阿里的三条主赛道：消费、云计算和全球化)</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ddad421bc8aee2f87bcaa2890df25b1\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>核心电商：传统优势在夯实，新优势在构建</b></p><p>电商是阿里的核心业务，在营收占比约七成。面临外部的不确定性，阿里电商基本盘的稳健，一方面体现在传统优势在夯实，包括其消费者心智强，商业效率高，供给最丰富；另一方面源自新的优势在构建，包括增强供应链能力建设，内容化持续进展，消费体验在提升等带来的增量势能。在国内消费复苏、尤其是线上消费发展强劲的背景下，淘系将进一步成为商家经营主阵地，进而激发更多潜力、发挥出更多商业价值。</p><p>如今对于主播与商家而言，淘系正在形成“从交易到消费”的一个生态，最大化提升客群质量和消费者黏性，而非一个单纯的销售平台。这是与其他市场玩家最不同的地方。</p><p>淘系生态的优势在于用户全生命周期的价值最大化。这背后与其长期能力积累息息相关。在上一季的财报分析师电话会上，阿里巴巴集团董事会主席兼首席执行官张勇直言不讳：<b>直播是技术，电商是产业。</b></p><p><b>从GMV看，经历了过去两个季度的承压下跌，机构普遍预测将有边际复苏。</b></p><p>在直播成为电商增量战场的当下，淘宝对不同量级的主播、达人的高吸引力成为其生态的另一发展势能。与抖音、快手相比，淘宝布局直播最早，客户群体数量最大、转化率也最高。双11之前，罗永浩、俞敏洪等达人及主播悉数在淘宝开播。头部高人气主播对成交额带来了直观而明显的拉动作用。预售首小时，102个品牌成交额过亿元，3000个品牌成交额翻倍增长。</p><p>淘宝直播的腰部主播、新主播也出现了很大的增量，预售引导金额分别有365%、684%同比增长；直播机构的预售引导金额，也有165%的同比增长。</p><p><b>新业务方面阿里也在持续降本增效、寻求增量。</b>2022年6月份季度业绩显示，淘宝及淘特上M2C（工厂直接面向消费者）商品产生的支付GMV同比增长超过40%。社区电商品牌淘菜菜则通过迅速进驻人口密度较高且具有可观购买力的地区，在6月份季度GMV同比增长超过200%。</p><p>这些数据都显示出，淘系聚焦不同消费群体在进行用户分层、分类运营，接下来，多元消费矩阵将促进不同消费群体钱包份额的增长，进一步带来客群的拓展和黏性提高。</p><p>外部来看，国内消费正在复苏，淘宝天猫平台将看到更多商业确定性与增长潜力。国家统计局数据显示，今年前三季度，社会消费品零售总额同比增长0.7%。其中，全国实物商品网上零售额同比增长6.1%，增速明显快于社会消费品零售总额。</p><p>四季度开始，全国多地出台了各方面的促消费政策，包括新能源车、绿色智能家电、加大线上促销力度等。例如，上海宣布以2亿元财政补贴范围覆盖电冰箱、电视机、洗碗机等八大类一级能效家电。</p><p>被压制的消费潜力已经在释放。今年天猫双11甫一开售，仅用时1秒，消费者就买走了10个亿的iPhone手机，首小时超过去年双11全天。家电方面，以海尔为例，在天猫开卖仅5分钟，销售额破10亿，足见天猫的爆发效率远超同行。</p><p><b>云计算等待价值实现</b></p><p>在阿里的三条主赛道中，云计算与其未来的增长息息相关。随着数字化技术的深化发展和企业上云的进一步拓展，阿里云的先发优势和技术竞争力十分明显，短期需求波动后，将借助结构的持续优化对收入和估值形成重要贡献。</p><p>阿里云对于阿里的未来增长贡献可以参考AWS之于亚马逊。2022年二季度，亚马逊AWS的收入为197亿美元，同比增长33%；而阿里云业务季度收入同比增长10%至176.85亿元，连续7个季度实现盈利。</p><p>行业研究机构Gartner数据显示，2021年全球云计算市场增长到了908.9亿美元的规模。这意味着无论是始于2002年的AWS，还是创建于2009年的阿里云，都仍有着巨大的发展空间和扩张潜力，收入和利润的增长空间很大。</p><p>Gartner发布的2021年全球云计算IaaS市场份额数据还显示，阿里云排名全球第三，仅在亚马逊、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT.US\">微软</a>之后，市场份额为9.55%，连续六年实现份额增长；同时，阿里云排名亚太市场第一，市场份额为25.53%。</p><p>从AWS的客户分布来看，其客户构成横跨酒店和旅行、媒体娱乐、电信、金融服务、医疗、制造、能源等各个行业，今年二季度官宣的新客户就包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL.US\">达美航空</a>、英国最大的电信公司BT（大英电信）以及华尔街知名投行杰富瑞。</p><p>回看阿里云，二季度，阿里云来自非互联网行业的客户收入占总收入的比例达到53%，较去年同期上升超5个百分点。<b>多家机构认为，对阿里云而言，来自非互联网行业的收入增长以及潜在的国际扩张可以为长期增长提供动力。</b></p><p>11月4日的2022云栖大会云原生数据库峰会上，相关数据库负责人表示，中国人寿使用阿里云自研的PolarDB数据库，已经支撑公司数十套金融核心系统，实现了关键核心技术的敏捷可控。随着阿里云在产品丰富度、行业覆盖度、性能等方面的不断提升，更多企业的上云需求得到充分释放，云计算将给阿里的利润增长、业务拓展等带来更加深远的影响。</p><p>从底层逻辑来说，云计算的发展离不开长期技术的投入和不断革新突破，阿里通过率先自研CPU芯片、升级功效，在技术方面拥有较雄厚的资源和优势。今年9月，阿里宣布向云计算部门投资10亿美元，这笔投资是向对其未来增长至关重要的部分业务注入了关键资金，华尔街认为，近年来阿里在云计算领域的投入已使其建立起与亚马逊和微软(MSFT)相媲美的业务。</p><p>2021年云栖大会，阿里平头哥发布首颗自研CPU芯片倚天710，该芯片针对云场景研发，同时兼顾了性能与易用性；到了今年的云栖大会，阿里宣布倚天710已大规模应用，阿里云未来两年20%的新增算力将使用自研CPU，这是阿里算力攻坚的重要突破。</p><p>目前，倚天710已在阿里云数据中心大规模部署，并以云的形式服务阿里巴巴和多家互联网科技公司，算力性价比提升超30%，单位算力功耗降低60%。</p><p><b>出海，重要的引擎之一！</b></p><p>新的增长故事中，出海也是重要的引擎之一。今年二季度，阿里的国际业务中，国际零售商业业务收入为105.24亿元；跨境电商Lazada在东南亚的订单录得10%的同比增长；IaaS市场也在不断向外延伸，5月20日，阿里云宣布位于泰国的云数据中心正式启用，这是阿里云在东南亚的第10座数据中心。至此，阿里云在全球27个地域运营着84个可用区。</p><p>东南亚始终是阿里的出海前沿，也用实际的增长证明了其业务上的发展潜力。在2021阿里巴巴投资者日上，阿里云智能总裁张建锋表示，阿里云的东南亚市场营收增长超60%，这一增速远超国内。今年8月，阿里巴巴以约1亿美元的现金对价收购了印度尼西亚电信运营商PT Smart Telecom(Smartfren)6%的股份，在此基础上迅速进一步介入东南亚这一全球增速最快的数据中心市场。</p><p><span style=\"color:rgba(131,41,34,1);\">综上，从消费、云计算和全球化三条主赛道看，阿里依然在行业占据很强的优势地位，且均在不断投入、持续增长。在外部环境向好、业务稳健增长、利润表现或超预期的背景下，可以期待市场将带来阿里的估值修复和长期价值的兑现，并进而引领中概股整体的价值重估。</span></p><blockquote>绩前，国内机构一致唱好</blockquote><p>国内不少机构对阿里2023财年第二财季的业绩作出预测。<b>国海证券预计</b>，<span style=\"color:rgba(139,43,36,1);\">第二财季阿里将实现总营收2,067亿元（YoY+3%，QoQ+1%），经调整 EBITA同比提升5%至296亿元，经调整 EBITA margin为14%。</span></p><p>具体到细分业务，该机构预计中国商业业务实现营收1,377亿元（YoY+5%，QoQ-3%），中国商业经调整EBITA margin为30%；国际商业业务预计营收155亿元（YoY+3%，QoQ+0%），国际商业经调整EBITA margin为-12%；云计算业务预计营收220亿元（YoY+10%，QoQ+24%），云计算经调整EBITA margin为2%。</p><p><b>安信证券分析，</b>阿里在降本增效、核心电商业务逐步恢复以及新业务持续减亏驱动下调整后EBITA有望重拾增长。<span style=\"color:rgba(139,43,36,1);\">预计公司2QFY23收入同比+3.7%至2082亿元，季度内整体调整后EBITA同比+2.0%至286亿元，维持买入-A评级，美股/港股SOTP目标价至143美元/139港元。</span></p><p><b>东吴证券表示：</b>本季度疫情影响总体减弱，各项业务逐渐恢复，<span style=\"color:rgba(143,44,36,1);\">我们预计阿里巴巴FY2023Q2收入同比上升3.5%达到2077亿元，预计经调整EBITA为297亿元，同比上升6%，Adj-EBITAMargin为14.3%。</span></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d752152b73947ff2f4b1c08ab9eecc39","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106322144","content_text":"摘要：绩前，阿里获机构“齐声”唱好！从消费、云计算和全球化三条主赛道看，阿里依然在行业占据很强的优势地位。彭博预计阿里2QFY23营收为2092.44亿元人民币；调整后净利润为292.89亿元人民币。阿里巴巴将于11月17日发布2023财年第二季度业绩，根据彭博一致预期，阿里巴巴2023财年第二季度营收为2092.44亿元人民币；调整后净利润为292.89亿元人民币。基本盘是否稳定？解析阿里三大核心赛道在经历去年的大跌之后，阿里巴巴股价仍然从年初至今已下跌超40%，有些投资者怀疑，是不是阿里巴巴核心业务出了什么问题？要判断阿里的基本盘是否稳定，需要从其三大主赛道的基本面、布局、挑战和未来发展潜力入手。（阿里的三条主赛道：消费、云计算和全球化)核心电商：传统优势在夯实，新优势在构建电商是阿里的核心业务，在营收占比约七成。面临外部的不确定性，阿里电商基本盘的稳健，一方面体现在传统优势在夯实，包括其消费者心智强，商业效率高，供给最丰富；另一方面源自新的优势在构建，包括增强供应链能力建设，内容化持续进展，消费体验在提升等带来的增量势能。在国内消费复苏、尤其是线上消费发展强劲的背景下，淘系将进一步成为商家经营主阵地，进而激发更多潜力、发挥出更多商业价值。如今对于主播与商家而言，淘系正在形成“从交易到消费”的一个生态，最大化提升客群质量和消费者黏性，而非一个单纯的销售平台。这是与其他市场玩家最不同的地方。淘系生态的优势在于用户全生命周期的价值最大化。这背后与其长期能力积累息息相关。在上一季的财报分析师电话会上，阿里巴巴集团董事会主席兼首席执行官张勇直言不讳：直播是技术，电商是产业。从GMV看，经历了过去两个季度的承压下跌，机构普遍预测将有边际复苏。在直播成为电商增量战场的当下，淘宝对不同量级的主播、达人的高吸引力成为其生态的另一发展势能。与抖音、快手相比，淘宝布局直播最早，客户群体数量最大、转化率也最高。双11之前，罗永浩、俞敏洪等达人及主播悉数在淘宝开播。头部高人气主播对成交额带来了直观而明显的拉动作用。预售首小时，102个品牌成交额过亿元，3000个品牌成交额翻倍增长。淘宝直播的腰部主播、新主播也出现了很大的增量，预售引导金额分别有365%、684%同比增长；直播机构的预售引导金额，也有165%的同比增长。新业务方面阿里也在持续降本增效、寻求增量。2022年6月份季度业绩显示，淘宝及淘特上M2C（工厂直接面向消费者）商品产生的支付GMV同比增长超过40%。社区电商品牌淘菜菜则通过迅速进驻人口密度较高且具有可观购买力的地区，在6月份季度GMV同比增长超过200%。这些数据都显示出，淘系聚焦不同消费群体在进行用户分层、分类运营，接下来，多元消费矩阵将促进不同消费群体钱包份额的增长，进一步带来客群的拓展和黏性提高。外部来看，国内消费正在复苏，淘宝天猫平台将看到更多商业确定性与增长潜力。国家统计局数据显示，今年前三季度，社会消费品零售总额同比增长0.7%。其中，全国实物商品网上零售额同比增长6.1%，增速明显快于社会消费品零售总额。四季度开始，全国多地出台了各方面的促消费政策，包括新能源车、绿色智能家电、加大线上促销力度等。例如，上海宣布以2亿元财政补贴范围覆盖电冰箱、电视机、洗碗机等八大类一级能效家电。被压制的消费潜力已经在释放。今年天猫双11甫一开售，仅用时1秒，消费者就买走了10个亿的iPhone手机，首小时超过去年双11全天。家电方面，以海尔为例，在天猫开卖仅5分钟，销售额破10亿，足见天猫的爆发效率远超同行。云计算等待价值实现在阿里的三条主赛道中，云计算与其未来的增长息息相关。随着数字化技术的深化发展和企业上云的进一步拓展，阿里云的先发优势和技术竞争力十分明显，短期需求波动后，将借助结构的持续优化对收入和估值形成重要贡献。阿里云对于阿里的未来增长贡献可以参考AWS之于亚马逊。2022年二季度，亚马逊AWS的收入为197亿美元，同比增长33%；而阿里云业务季度收入同比增长10%至176.85亿元，连续7个季度实现盈利。行业研究机构Gartner数据显示，2021年全球云计算市场增长到了908.9亿美元的规模。这意味着无论是始于2002年的AWS，还是创建于2009年的阿里云，都仍有着巨大的发展空间和扩张潜力，收入和利润的增长空间很大。Gartner发布的2021年全球云计算IaaS市场份额数据还显示，阿里云排名全球第三，仅在亚马逊、微软之后，市场份额为9.55%，连续六年实现份额增长；同时，阿里云排名亚太市场第一，市场份额为25.53%。从AWS的客户分布来看，其客户构成横跨酒店和旅行、媒体娱乐、电信、金融服务、医疗、制造、能源等各个行业，今年二季度官宣的新客户就包括达美航空、英国最大的电信公司BT（大英电信）以及华尔街知名投行杰富瑞。回看阿里云，二季度，阿里云来自非互联网行业的客户收入占总收入的比例达到53%，较去年同期上升超5个百分点。多家机构认为，对阿里云而言，来自非互联网行业的收入增长以及潜在的国际扩张可以为长期增长提供动力。11月4日的2022云栖大会云原生数据库峰会上，相关数据库负责人表示，中国人寿使用阿里云自研的PolarDB数据库，已经支撑公司数十套金融核心系统，实现了关键核心技术的敏捷可控。随着阿里云在产品丰富度、行业覆盖度、性能等方面的不断提升，更多企业的上云需求得到充分释放，云计算将给阿里的利润增长、业务拓展等带来更加深远的影响。从底层逻辑来说，云计算的发展离不开长期技术的投入和不断革新突破，阿里通过率先自研CPU芯片、升级功效，在技术方面拥有较雄厚的资源和优势。今年9月，阿里宣布向云计算部门投资10亿美元，这笔投资是向对其未来增长至关重要的部分业务注入了关键资金，华尔街认为，近年来阿里在云计算领域的投入已使其建立起与亚马逊和微软(MSFT)相媲美的业务。2021年云栖大会，阿里平头哥发布首颗自研CPU芯片倚天710，该芯片针对云场景研发，同时兼顾了性能与易用性；到了今年的云栖大会，阿里宣布倚天710已大规模应用，阿里云未来两年20%的新增算力将使用自研CPU，这是阿里算力攻坚的重要突破。目前，倚天710已在阿里云数据中心大规模部署，并以云的形式服务阿里巴巴和多家互联网科技公司，算力性价比提升超30%，单位算力功耗降低60%。出海，重要的引擎之一！新的增长故事中，出海也是重要的引擎之一。今年二季度，阿里的国际业务中，国际零售商业业务收入为105.24亿元；跨境电商Lazada在东南亚的订单录得10%的同比增长；IaaS市场也在不断向外延伸，5月20日，阿里云宣布位于泰国的云数据中心正式启用，这是阿里云在东南亚的第10座数据中心。至此，阿里云在全球27个地域运营着84个可用区。东南亚始终是阿里的出海前沿，也用实际的增长证明了其业务上的发展潜力。在2021阿里巴巴投资者日上，阿里云智能总裁张建锋表示，阿里云的东南亚市场营收增长超60%，这一增速远超国内。今年8月，阿里巴巴以约1亿美元的现金对价收购了印度尼西亚电信运营商PT Smart Telecom(Smartfren)6%的股份，在此基础上迅速进一步介入东南亚这一全球增速最快的数据中心市场。综上，从消费、云计算和全球化三条主赛道看，阿里依然在行业占据很强的优势地位，且均在不断投入、持续增长。在外部环境向好、业务稳健增长、利润表现或超预期的背景下，可以期待市场将带来阿里的估值修复和长期价值的兑现，并进而引领中概股整体的价值重估。绩前，国内机构一致唱好国内不少机构对阿里2023财年第二财季的业绩作出预测。国海证券预计，第二财季阿里将实现总营收2,067亿元（YoY+3%，QoQ+1%），经调整 EBITA同比提升5%至296亿元，经调整 EBITA margin为14%。具体到细分业务，该机构预计中国商业业务实现营收1,377亿元（YoY+5%，QoQ-3%），中国商业经调整EBITA margin为30%；国际商业业务预计营收155亿元（YoY+3%，QoQ+0%），国际商业经调整EBITA margin为-12%；云计算业务预计营收220亿元（YoY+10%，QoQ+24%），云计算经调整EBITA 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