跟风者的个人主页 - 老虎社区

跟风者

跟风者

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IP属地：山东

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63粉丝

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0勋章

07-28

有意义吗？英伟达早已经1000元以上，一拆十了

@Shyon:英伟达与AMD：谁将率先突破200美元？

07-25

亚鑫反着买，别墅靠大海

@许亚鑫:港A股冲高回落会见顶吗？中美下周见！

04-01

昨天反弹结束，可惜反弹又开始了

@Ivan_甘灿荣:关税扰动再起，美股指反弹结束

02-04

$PVH Corp(PVH)$ 这是好企业，价值观正义，永远支持！

01-27

你们想多了，根本不是deepseek的事情，这个应用就是垃圾

@话题虎:DeepSeek重创大科技股！英伟达长期会受影响吗？

2024-10-08

$三倍做空富时中国ETF-Direxion(YANG)$ 买这个可是要发大财了

2024-10-08

$三倍做多富时中国ETF-Direxion(YINN)$ 买这个，准备好倾家荡产

2024-08-26

$拼多多(PDD)$ 暴雷了

2024-07-24

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 雷太大，都被埋了

2023-12-15

许导之前看跌黄金 [龇牙]

@许亚鑫:美联储认怂，风险资产反扑才刚刚开始？

2023-10-20

[强]

@独立分析师:我对中股的中期预测

2023-07-23

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看

@独立分析师:大复盘:熊市股指下，绝无价值投资

2019-03-12

$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$空军弟兄们，挺住，胜利就在眼前，美股暴跌不远了

2019-03-11

$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$经过上周的大涨，SQQQ第一阶段先涨到15，下一阶段再涨到20，长线涨到40。SQQQ耐心持有，果断加仓，才是赚钱的正道。

2019-03-08

$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$让你们卖了房子买SQQQ，这回服了吗？

2019-03-08

$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$完全符合预期，SQQQ暴涨，马上涨到20，快买快加仓

2019-03-08

$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$完全符合预期，SQQQ暴涨，马上涨到20，快买快加仓

2019-03-07

$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$SQQQ即将暴涨，完全符合预期，大家都满仓做空，跟我一起发财啊

2019-03-05

$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$内部消息，美股马上崩盘了，卖了房子快买SQQQ啊，千年不遇好机会!

2019-03-01

$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$低开也会高走，继续加仓，要继续做大做强，坚决做空纳斯达克，让纳斯达克回归A股的正确道路上来。

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<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;或 AMD <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMD\">$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;谁会首先达到200美元的看法，基于提供的信息。这篇文章强调AMD最近在周五上涨了2%，收盘价为166美元，这显示出强劲的势头。它还提到Alphabet的100亿美元资本支出可能对英伟达构成利好消息，鉴于科技行业的相互关联性。随着大型科技公司将在未来几周发布财报，关于资本支出的增加猜测可能进一步影响两家公司。从个人角度来看，我相信英伟达将首先达到200美元，我想详细说明我为什么持有这一观点。 AMD vs Nvidia 我认为英伟达是该行业明显的领导者，特别是在GPU市场，这是其成功的关键驱动力。英伟达的统治地位源于其尖端产品，如GeForce RTX系列和A100/AI100 GPU，这些产品被广泛用于游戏、数据中心和人工智能应用。尽管AMD凭借其Radeon RX系列和Instinct加速器具有竞争力，但其在这些高增长领域的市场份额和创新 historically 落后于英伟达。这种领导地位使英伟达在吸引投资和维持增长方面具有显著优势。 从他们的市场地位来看，英伟达受益于更广泛和多样化的客户群。其GPU是人工智能和机器学习工作负载的首选，这是一个经历爆炸式增长的领域。像Alphabet这样拥有巨额资本支出的公司可能会大量投资于英伟达的技术，以为其数据中心和云服务提供动力。相比之下，AMD的优势更多在于其Ryzen处理器的CPU","listText":"我很高兴分享我对英伟达 <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;或 AMD <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMD\">$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;谁会首先达到200美元的看法，基于提供的信息。这篇文章强调AMD最近在周五上涨了2%，收盘价为166美元，这显示出强劲的势头。它还提到Alphabet的100亿美元资本支出可能对英伟达构成利好消息，鉴于科技行业的相互关联性。随着大型科技公司将在未来几周发布财报，关于资本支出的增加猜测可能进一步影响两家公司。从个人角度来看，我相信英伟达将首先达到200美元，我想详细说明我为什么持有这一观点。 AMD vs Nvidia 我认为英伟达是该行业明显的领导者，特别是在GPU市场，这是其成功的关键驱动力。英伟达的统治地位源于其尖端产品，如GeForce RTX系列和A100/AI100 GPU，这些产品被广泛用于游戏、数据中心和人工智能应用。尽管AMD凭借其Radeon RX系列和Instinct加速器具有竞争力，但其在这些高增长领域的市场份额和创新 historically 落后于英伟达。这种领导地位使英伟达在吸引投资和维持增长方面具有显著优势。 从他们的市场地位来看，英伟达受益于更广泛和多样化的客户群。其GPU是人工智能和机器学习工作负载的首选，这是一个经历爆炸式增长的领域。像Alphabet这样拥有巨额资本支出的公司可能会大量投资于英伟达的技术，以为其数据中心和云服务提供动力。相比之下，AMD的优势更多在于其Ryzen处理器的CPU","text":"我很高兴分享我对英伟达 $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ 或 AMD $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ 谁会首先达到200美元的看法，基于提供的信息。这篇文章强调AMD最近在周五上涨了2%，收盘价为166美元，这显示出强劲的势头。它还提到Alphabet的100亿美元资本支出可能对英伟达构成利好消息，鉴于科技行业的相互关联性。随着大型科技公司将在未来几周发布财报，关于资本支出的增加猜测可能进一步影响两家公司。从个人角度来看，我相信英伟达将首先达到200美元，我想详细说明我为什么持有这一观点。 AMD vs Nvidia 我认为英伟达是该行业明显的领导者，特别是在GPU市场，这是其成功的关键驱动力。英伟达的统治地位源于其尖端产品，如GeForce RTX系列和A100/AI100 GPU，这些产品被广泛用于游戏、数据中心和人工智能应用。尽管AMD凭借其Radeon RX系列和Instinct加速器具有竞争力，但其在这些高增长领域的市场份额和创新 historically 落后于英伟达。这种领导地位使英伟达在吸引投资和维持增长方面具有显著优势。 从他们的市场地位来看，英伟达受益于更广泛和多样化的客户群。其GPU是人工智能和机器学习工作负载的首选，这是一个经历爆炸式增长的领域。像Alphabet这样拥有巨额资本支出的公司可能会大量投资于英伟达的技术，以为其数据中心和云服务提供动力。相比之下，AMD的优势更多在于其Ryzen处理器的CPU","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/55115f24ddacd3acecb2fcc9da087af7","width":"1106","height":"830"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/461427882181200","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":73,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":460332293030744,"gmtCreate":1753395183677,"gmtModify":1753395185359,"author":{"id":"3467952945733642","authorId":"3467952945733642","name":"跟风者","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81043154a1ba73ecfb4110e583e1489a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467952945733642","authorIdStr":"3467952945733642"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"亚鑫反着买，别墅靠大海","listText":"亚鑫反着买，别墅靠大海","text":"亚鑫反着买，别墅靠大海","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/460332293030744","repostId":"459760885776704","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":459760885776704,"gmtCreate":1753283568983,"gmtModify":1753329391905,"author":{"id":"3532831849818465","authorId":"3532831849818465","name":"许亚鑫","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72cbe26a31edf2913e619f4aa762d2d4","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3532831849818465","authorIdStr":"3532831849818465"},"themes":[],"title":"港A股冲高回落会见顶吗？中美下周见！","htmlText":"国内市场方面，7月23日，A股全天冲高回落，沪指微涨0.01%，盘中一度站上3600点，为2024年10月以来首次。雅江水电站概念股活跃，但是个股有所分化，创新药，券商、保险等金融股盘中拉升，军工、海南自贸区跌幅居前。图片我相信有人又要开始担心，这样的冲高回落，会不会就是短期的顶部出现？上涨的行情里面，猜测顶部，这叫人性。假如你想要在市场里面赚到钱，就要学会反人性。正所谓买在无人问津处，卖在人声鼎沸时。难不成你认为现在的大A就已经足够鼎沸了嘛？看看人家美股的走势，还远远不够嘛。这一次雅江1.2万亿的大工程之所以能够在短线上引爆市场的行情，说明市场里面并不缺资金，而是信心。伴随着这样一个横跨15年大周期的超级大工程横空出世(一觉醒来，我们在雅鲁藏布江上砸了1.2万个亿！)，意味着市场有样东西在悄然发生改变，那便是——预期。7月22日，国内大宗商品市场迎来罕见涨停潮。截至收盘，玻璃、纯碱、焦煤、焦炭、工业硅、多晶硅六大品种主力合约均强势封于涨停板。图片开源的方面，是通过超级工程增加对于产能的需求，节流的方面，则是通过供给侧改革优化产能结构，进而把反内卷的精神实质贯彻到底。而且大家要留意一个细节，近期的走势，主要还是来自于我们内部的改革，是内生动能，外部的水龙头还没有开始放呢。据CME“美联储观察”：美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为95.3%，降息25个基点的概率为4.7%。美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为40.3%，累计降息25个基点的概率为57%，累计降息50个基点的概率为2.7%。图片尽管川普最近非常积极的给美联储，给鲍威尔施加了很多压力，但是外部放水的时间节点，大概率还是要落在9月。本来我们还想安安稳稳的等到9月再发力，如今内生动力一起来，两市已经干到1.8万亿，这样的剧本大家不是更加舒服吗，预计到那个时候，日均2万亿的成交量跑不掉的。此外，中美双方又要见面了，并且时间还提前","listText":"国内市场方面，7月23日，A股全天冲高回落，沪指微涨0.01%，盘中一度站上3600点，为2024年10月以来首次。雅江水电站概念股活跃，但是个股有所分化，创新药，券商、保险等金融股盘中拉升，军工、海南自贸区跌幅居前。图片我相信有人又要开始担心，这样的冲高回落，会不会就是短期的顶部出现？上涨的行情里面，猜测顶部，这叫人性。假如你想要在市场里面赚到钱，就要学会反人性。正所谓买在无人问津处，卖在人声鼎沸时。难不成你认为现在的大A就已经足够鼎沸了嘛？看看人家美股的走势，还远远不够嘛。这一次雅江1.2万亿的大工程之所以能够在短线上引爆市场的行情，说明市场里面并不缺资金，而是信心。伴随着这样一个横跨15年大周期的超级大工程横空出世(一觉醒来，我们在雅鲁藏布江上砸了1.2万个亿！)，意味着市场有样东西在悄然发生改变，那便是——预期。7月22日，国内大宗商品市场迎来罕见涨停潮。截至收盘，玻璃、纯碱、焦煤、焦炭、工业硅、多晶硅六大品种主力合约均强势封于涨停板。图片开源的方面，是通过超级工程增加对于产能的需求，节流的方面，则是通过供给侧改革优化产能结构，进而把反内卷的精神实质贯彻到底。而且大家要留意一个细节，近期的走势，主要还是来自于我们内部的改革，是内生动能，外部的水龙头还没有开始放呢。据CME“美联储观察”：美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为95.3%，降息25个基点的概率为4.7%。美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为40.3%，累计降息25个基点的概率为57%，累计降息50个基点的概率为2.7%。图片尽管川普最近非常积极的给美联储，给鲍威尔施加了很多压力，但是外部放水的时间节点，大概率还是要落在9月。本来我们还想安安稳稳的等到9月再发力，如今内生动力一起来，两市已经干到1.8万亿，这样的剧本大家不是更加舒服吗，预计到那个时候，日均2万亿的成交量跑不掉的。此外，中美双方又要见面了，并且时间还提前","text":"国内市场方面，7月23日，A股全天冲高回落，沪指微涨0.01%，盘中一度站上3600点，为2024年10月以来首次。雅江水电站概念股活跃，但是个股有所分化，创新药，券商、保险等金融股盘中拉升，军工、海南自贸区跌幅居前。图片我相信有人又要开始担心，这样的冲高回落，会不会就是短期的顶部出现？上涨的行情里面，猜测顶部，这叫人性。假如你想要在市场里面赚到钱，就要学会反人性。正所谓买在无人问津处，卖在人声鼎沸时。难不成你认为现在的大A就已经足够鼎沸了嘛？看看人家美股的走势，还远远不够嘛。这一次雅江1.2万亿的大工程之所以能够在短线上引爆市场的行情，说明市场里面并不缺资金，而是信心。伴随着这样一个横跨15年大周期的超级大工程横空出世(一觉醒来，我们在雅鲁藏布江上砸了1.2万个亿！)，意味着市场有样东西在悄然发生改变，那便是——预期。7月22日，国内大宗商品市场迎来罕见涨停潮。截至收盘，玻璃、纯碱、焦煤、焦炭、工业硅、多晶硅六大品种主力合约均强势封于涨停板。图片开源的方面，是通过超级工程增加对于产能的需求，节流的方面，则是通过供给侧改革优化产能结构，进而把反内卷的精神实质贯彻到底。而且大家要留意一个细节，近期的走势，主要还是来自于我们内部的改革，是内生动能，外部的水龙头还没有开始放呢。据CME“美联储观察”：美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为95.3%，降息25个基点的概率为4.7%。美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为40.3%，累计降息25个基点的概率为57%，累计降息50个基点的概率为2.7%。图片尽管川普最近非常积极的给美联储，给鲍威尔施加了很多压力，但是外部放水的时间节点，大概率还是要落在9月。本来我们还想安安稳稳的等到9月再发力，如今内生动力一起来，两市已经干到1.8万亿，这样的剧本大家不是更加舒服吗，预计到那个时候，日均2万亿的成交量跑不掉的。此外，中美双方又要见面了，并且时间还提前","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09f8e15009835335e30db342ba828bbc"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0351a9efc557983ef1b7d637f5f25927"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/353fb4cc865273aa7d97cadf2eda2d0b"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/459760885776704","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":135,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":419528594780264,"gmtCreate":1743455660810,"gmtModify":1743455662353,"author":{"id":"3467952945733642","authorId":"3467952945733642","name":"跟风者","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81043154a1ba73ecfb411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一、美股指第二阶段下跌的支撑位置在哪？ 此前分析认为美股指前段时间见底只是反弹而非反转，结果反弹幅度比预想要小，这也间接说明，今年2月份的高点是全年高点的概率很高。而再次下跌后，创新低不是难事，下一阶段的重要支撑将在20月均线之上寻得，20月均线是美股指的长期趋势的分水岭，若跌破则说明美股指存在重大利空，历史上最近跌破该均线均由大事件造成，如2008年金融危机，2020年新冠疫情以及2022年美联储暴力加息，因此本轮美股指下跌的强力支撑将在20月均线出出现，也即5300点附近。 二、美股指见底时间推算 今年的美股指仍符合以往的时间规律，2月见顶，则下个重要时间点将在5月份，也即表示准备来临的4月份美股指表现均比较折腾，毕竟距离强支撑位置不算远，届时股市动荡仍比较强烈。由于预计美联储将在6月份重新降息，故可能在5月份市场提前炒作降息预期，使美股指出现周线级别的大反弹，20周均线是反弹的强压位置。因此如果下两周股指快速下探至5300点附近时，胆大的朋友可尝试抄底美股指的5300-6000点左右的反弹行情（当然反弹过程相信不会一帆风顺，折腾仍是核心）。 三、贵金属建议寻找投机补涨机会 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暴雷了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/342684769906752","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1508,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":330716130320440,"gmtCreate":1721771683309,"gmtModify":1721771684501,"author":{"id":"3467952945733642","authorId":"3467952945733642","name":"跟风者","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81043154a1ba73ecfb4110e583e1489a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467952945733642","authorIdStr":"3467952945733642"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ &nbsp;</a>雷太大，都被埋了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ &nbsp;</a>雷太大，都被埋了","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 雷太大，都被埋了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/330716130320440","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1679,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":252192773218368,"gmtCreate":1702588782359,"gmtModify":1702588784759,"author":{"id":"3467952945733642","authorId":"3467952945733642","name":"跟风者","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81043154a1ba73ecfb4110e583e1489a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467952945733642","authorIdStr":"3467952945733642"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"许导之前看跌黄金 [龇牙]","listText":"许导之前看跌黄金 [龇牙]","text":"许导之前看跌黄金 [龇牙]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/252192773218368","repostId":"252111246037152","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":252111246037152,"gmtCreate":1702568881750,"gmtModify":1702617854202,"author":{"id":"3532831849818465","authorId":"3532831849818465","name":"许亚鑫","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72cbe26a31edf2913e619f4aa762d2d4","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3532831849818465","authorIdStr":"3532831849818465"},"themes":[],"title":"美联储认怂，风险资产反扑才刚刚开始？","htmlText":"许导在前文《1213：今夜，讲最鹰的话干最怂的事？！》提醒过大家，“谨防利空出尽，毕竟今天日线8了！” 原以为美联储主席鲍威尔还会继续嘴炮鹰派装装样子，然后开始干最怂的事情，结果却是——图片鲍威尔连嘴炮直接都不装了，摊牌了，直接告诉市场接下来就是要降息。12月份的按兵不动，市场早已人尽皆知，大家关心的无非就是两件事，其一，明年什么时候降？其二，明年总共降多少？图片如上图所示，较今年9月份，美联储下调了明年经济增长预期至1.4%，此前为1.5%，不过上调了今年的经济增长预期至2.6%，此前为2.1%；同时，无论是今年，还是明年的PCE和核心PCE都往下调，凸显了美联储对于此轮加息终点的确认。图片对比起上一次2024年底将至的5.1%的预期中值，这一次下调到了4.6%，即暗示美联储明年将会有3次的降息。虽然鲍威尔对金融条件大规模放松只字未提，不过从原来的嘴炮加息到讨论降息时间也表明美联储立场的软化，这样透露出来的信号意味着，即便美国经济在2024年没有陷入衰退，美联储也愿意降息，这可能只是经济正在正常化的一个迹象，没有必要进一步收紧货币政策。图片知名投行高盛“闻声而动”，立刻调整了对美联储2024年的降息预期，预计美联储在明年3月、5月和6月连续三次降息25BP，随后第三季度和第四季度各降息25个基点，降息幅度达到125bp。可是你们知道吗？11月，高盛预测2024年美联储只会降息一次，且这一次还是在明年的第四季度。直至隔夜会议前，高盛预计的降息幅度还是50个基点。据CME“美联储观察”：美联储明年2月维持利率在5.25%-5.50%区间不变的概率为83.5%，加息25个基点的概率为0%，降息25个基点的概率为16.5%。到明年3月维持利率不变的概率为20.9%，累计降息25个基点的概率为66.7%，累计降息50个基点的概率为12.4%。图片因此，在美联储利率会议落地后，上述的","listText":"许导在前文《1213：今夜，讲最鹰的话干最怂的事？！》提醒过大家，“谨防利空出尽，毕竟今天日线8了！” 原以为美联储主席鲍威尔还会继续嘴炮鹰派装装样子，然后开始干最怂的事情，结果却是——图片鲍威尔连嘴炮直接都不装了，摊牌了，直接告诉市场接下来就是要降息。12月份的按兵不动，市场早已人尽皆知，大家关心的无非就是两件事，其一，明年什么时候降？其二，明年总共降多少？图片如上图所示，较今年9月份，美联储下调了明年经济增长预期至1.4%，此前为1.5%，不过上调了今年的经济增长预期至2.6%，此前为2.1%；同时，无论是今年，还是明年的PCE和核心PCE都往下调，凸显了美联储对于此轮加息终点的确认。图片对比起上一次2024年底将至的5.1%的预期中值，这一次下调到了4.6%，即暗示美联储明年将会有3次的降息。虽然鲍威尔对金融条件大规模放松只字未提，不过从原来的嘴炮加息到讨论降息时间也表明美联储立场的软化，这样透露出来的信号意味着，即便美国经济在2024年没有陷入衰退，美联储也愿意降息，这可能只是经济正在正常化的一个迹象，没有必要进一步收紧货币政策。图片知名投行高盛“闻声而动”，立刻调整了对美联储2024年的降息预期，预计美联储在明年3月、5月和6月连续三次降息25BP，随后第三季度和第四季度各降息25个基点，降息幅度达到125bp。可是你们知道吗？11月，高盛预测2024年美联储只会降息一次，且这一次还是在明年的第四季度。直至隔夜会议前，高盛预计的降息幅度还是50个基点。据CME“美联储观察”：美联储明年2月维持利率在5.25%-5.50%区间不变的概率为83.5%，加息25个基点的概率为0%，降息25个基点的概率为16.5%。到明年3月维持利率不变的概率为20.9%，累计降息25个基点的概率为66.7%，累计降息50个基点的概率为12.4%。图片因此，在美联储利率会议落地后，上述的","text":"许导在前文《1213：今夜，讲最鹰的话干最怂的事？！》提醒过大家，“谨防利空出尽，毕竟今天日线8了！” 原以为美联储主席鲍威尔还会继续嘴炮鹰派装装样子，然后开始干最怂的事情，结果却是——图片鲍威尔连嘴炮直接都不装了，摊牌了，直接告诉市场接下来就是要降息。12月份的按兵不动，市场早已人尽皆知，大家关心的无非就是两件事，其一，明年什么时候降？其二，明年总共降多少？图片如上图所示，较今年9月份，美联储下调了明年经济增长预期至1.4%，此前为1.5%，不过上调了今年的经济增长预期至2.6%，此前为2.1%；同时，无论是今年，还是明年的PCE和核心PCE都往下调，凸显了美联储对于此轮加息终点的确认。图片对比起上一次2024年底将至的5.1%的预期中值，这一次下调到了4.6%，即暗示美联储明年将会有3次的降息。虽然鲍威尔对金融条件大规模放松只字未提，不过从原来的嘴炮加息到讨论降息时间也表明美联储立场的软化，这样透露出来的信号意味着，即便美国经济在2024年没有陷入衰退，美联储也愿意降息，这可能只是经济正在正常化的一个迹象，没有必要进一步收紧货币政策。图片知名投行高盛“闻声而动”，立刻调整了对美联储2024年的降息预期，预计美联储在明年3月、5月和6月连续三次降息25BP，随后第三季度和第四季度各降息25个基点，降息幅度达到125bp。可是你们知道吗？11月，高盛预测2024年美联储只会降息一次，且这一次还是在明年的第四季度。直至隔夜会议前，高盛预计的降息幅度还是50个基点。据CME“美联储观察”：美联储明年2月维持利率在5.25%-5.50%区间不变的概率为83.5%，加息25个基点的概率为0%，降息25个基点的概率为16.5%。到明年3月维持利率不变的概率为20.9%，累计降息25个基点的概率为66.7%，累计降息50个基点的概率为12.4%。图片因此，在美联储利率会议落地后，上述的","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2f5395675a9566932cf9508c1752b5b","width":"542","height":"466"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/464822806e4998d3ef268151ee38d4b5","width":"644","height":"721"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e657e2e83fe4205d5ac67c308e733daf","width":"671","height":"526"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/252111246037152","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2672,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":232442287964352,"gmtCreate":1697784793288,"gmtModify":1697784794757,"author":{"id":"3467952945733642","authorId":"3467952945733642","name":"跟风者","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81043154a1ba73ecfb4110e583e1489a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467952945733642","authorIdStr":"3467952945733642"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强]","listText":"[强]","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/232442287964352","repostId":"231527274111280","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":231527274111280,"gmtCreate":1697534054865,"gmtModify":1697534058863,"author":{"id":"125194940475664","authorId":"125194940475664","name":"独立分析师","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/80756a3bdeb5c29a5cc7e822601b2183","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"125194940475664","authorIdStr":"125194940475664"},"themes":[],"title":"我对中股的中期预测","htmlText":"&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;现在中股行情的走势是太明显了：下跌趋势。无论写上再多的利好消息，再多的利好数据，再多的利好政策，总之仍然是下跌趋势。那些“利好”全部是废话。 &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 中股的供需平衡已经被严重打破，股票体量过大，资金体量过小，并且股票质量很差，无法给出较高的估值，所以造成了长期的阴跌。 &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 限制融券，完全不是什么利好，因为中股做空渠道太多了，期货期权和国际上针对中股的期货期权等等。所以，提高融券保证金比例，完全无法改善做空的冲动，并且也无法带来增量的资金。 &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 针对中股中线行情，我做了一个大胆的预测，理论依据有：道氏理论，波浪理论和江恩理论。经过严谨的分析，时间方面：12月15日左右止跌企稳概率大；空间方面：12月15日之前，沪指目标位2980点，深成指目标位9450点，沪深300目标位3540点。  &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;从今年1月开始恢复我的老本行：预测股指，从6月开始实盘股指期货和期权。预测准确度是100%，主要是对技术分析理论有扎实的功底。这次继续做出大胆的预测，欢迎大家参考。实操方面，有做空条件的要做空中股，没有做空条件的，空仓观望，不到目标时间或目标点位，最好不要抄底。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2312(NQmain)$&nbsp;</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$&nbsp;</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSI\">$恒生指数(HSI)$&nbsp;</a>","listText":"&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;现在中股行情的走势是太明显了：下跌趋势。无论写上再多的利好消息，再多的利好数据，再多的利好政策，总之仍然是下跌趋势。那些“利好”全部是废话。 &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 中股的供需平衡已经被严重打破，股票体量过大，资金体量过小，并且股票质量很差，无法给出较高的估值，所以造成了长期的阴跌。 &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 限制融券，完全不是什么利好，因为中股做空渠道太多了，期货期权和国际上针对中股的期货期权等等。所以，提高融券保证金比例，完全无法改善做空的冲动，并且也无法带来增量的资金。 &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 针对中股中线行情，我做了一个大胆的预测，理论依据有：道氏理论，波浪理论和江恩理论。经过严谨的分析，时间方面：12月15日左右止跌企稳概率大；空间方面：12月15日之前，沪指目标位2980点，深成指目标位9450点，沪深300目标位3540点。  &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;从今年1月开始恢复我的老本行：预测股指，从6月开始实盘股指期货和期权。预测准确度是100%，主要是对技术分析理论有扎实的功底。这次继续做出大胆的预测，欢迎大家参考。实操方面，有做空条件的要做空中股，没有做空条件的，空仓观望，不到目标时间或目标点位，最好不要抄底。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2312(NQmain)$&nbsp;</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$&nbsp;</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSI\">$恒生指数(HSI)$&nbsp;</a>","text":"现在中股行情的走势是太明显了：下跌趋势。无论写上再多的利好消息，再多的利好数据，再多的利好政策，总之仍然是下跌趋势。那些“利好”全部是废话。 中股的供需平衡已经被严重打破，股票体量过大，资金体量过小，并且股票质量很差，无法给出较高的估值，所以造成了长期的阴跌。 限制融券，完全不是什么利好，因为中股做空渠道太多了，期货期权和国际上针对中股的期货期权等等。所以，提高融券保证金比例，完全无法改善做空的冲动，并且也无法带来增量的资金。 针对中股中线行情，我做了一个大胆的预测，理论依据有：道氏理论，波浪理论和江恩理论。经过严谨的分析，时间方面：12月15日左右止跌企稳概率大；空间方面：12月15日之前，沪指目标位2980点，深成指目标位9450点，沪深300目标位3540点。  从今年1月开始恢复我的老本行：预测股指，从6月开始实盘股指期货和期权。预测准确度是100%，主要是对技术分析理论有扎实的功底。这次继续做出大胆的预测，欢迎大家参考。实操方面，有做空条件的要做空中股，没有做空条件的，空仓观望，不到目标时间或目标点位，最好不要抄底。 $NQ100指数主连 2312(NQmain)$ $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 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&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;沉寂一年，2023年7月重新在老虎社区发帖。回味一下我在2021年5月10日的文章《下半年看空A股的分析与逻辑》（如图所示，欢迎品读参考），根据1.央行货币投放，2.通胀预期，3.市场情绪，4.产业资本原始股东减持，5.技术面分析，6.板块轮动规律，分析出中股基本见顶。 &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 如今来一个大复盘，1.中港股确实是在2021年下半年见顶并开始回落，并且在2022年走出完美的熊市。2.在2021年5月确实是一个清仓中股和港股的好机会，甚至是最佳的清仓机会。 &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;但是，分析的正确，我却是巨亏。这一年我看了很多遍《股票作手回忆录》，书中杰西利佛莫尔经历过多次“我分析对了行情，但我却破产了”，这句经典的语录在广大投资者身上发生的太多了，其中也包括我。 &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;这次我彻底顿悟了，沉寂一年一直思考这个问题，现在彻底顿悟了，所以又回到了老虎贴吧，继续创作和分享。欢迎大家点赞，收藏，转发，关注。我的经验必然会给大家带来质的飞跃。 &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 核心观点说三遍:1.熊市股指下，绝无价值投资，2.熊市股指下，绝无价值投资，3.熊市股指下，绝无价值投资。请大家仔细品读《下半年看空A股的分析与逻辑》，同时可以扒一扒我在2021年5月之前的作品。对于中美股市的股指，走强走弱，走牛走熊，我基本都是精准预测。但是，当时并没有把这个预测股指的“超能力”用于股指期货和期权，如果当初做了股指期货期权，现在身价至少千万。 &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 事实上，那时候过于追崇“价值投资","listText":"&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;沉寂一年，2023年7月重新在老虎社区发帖。回味一下我在2021年5月10日的文章《下半年看空A股的分析与逻辑》（如图所示，欢迎品读参考），根据1.央行货币投放，2.通胀预期，3.市场情绪，4.产业资本原始股东减持，5.技术面分析，6.板块轮动规律，分析出中股基本见顶。 &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 如今来一个大复盘，1.中港股确实是在2021年下半年见顶并开始回落，并且在2022年走出完美的熊市。2.在2021年5月确实是一个清仓中股和港股的好机会，甚至是最佳的清仓机会。 &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;但是，分析的正确，我却是巨亏。这一年我看了很多遍《股票作手回忆录》，书中杰西利佛莫尔经历过多次“我分析对了行情，但我却破产了”，这句经典的语录在广大投资者身上发生的太多了，其中也包括我。 &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;这次我彻底顿悟了，沉寂一年一直思考这个问题，现在彻底顿悟了，所以又回到了老虎贴吧，继续创作和分享。欢迎大家点赞，收藏，转发，关注。我的经验必然会给大家带来质的飞跃。 &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 核心观点说三遍:1.熊市股指下，绝无价值投资，2.熊市股指下，绝无价值投资，3.熊市股指下，绝无价值投资。请大家仔细品读《下半年看空A股的分析与逻辑》，同时可以扒一扒我在2021年5月之前的作品。对于中美股市的股指，走强走弱，走牛走熊，我基本都是精准预测。但是，当时并没有把这个预测股指的“超能力”用于股指期货和期权，如果当初做了股指期货期权，现在身价至少千万。 &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 事实上，那时候过于追崇“价值投资","text":"沉寂一年，2023年7月重新在老虎社区发帖。回味一下我在2021年5月10日的文章《下半年看空A股的分析与逻辑》（如图所示，欢迎品读参考），根据1.央行货币投放，2.通胀预期，3.市场情绪，4.产业资本原始股东减持，5.技术面分析，6.板块轮动规律，分析出中股基本见顶。 如今来一个大复盘，1.中港股确实是在2021年下半年见顶并开始回落，并且在2022年走出完美的熊市。2.在2021年5月确实是一个清仓中股和港股的好机会，甚至是最佳的清仓机会。 但是，分析的正确，我却是巨亏。这一年我看了很多遍《股票作手回忆录》，书中杰西利佛莫尔经历过多次“我分析对了行情，但我却破产了”，这句经典的语录在广大投资者身上发生的太多了，其中也包括我。 这次我彻底顿悟了，沉寂一年一直思考这个问题，现在彻底顿悟了，所以又回到了老虎贴吧，继续创作和分享。欢迎大家点赞，收藏，转发，关注。我的经验必然会给大家带来质的飞跃。 核心观点说三遍:1.熊市股指下，绝无价值投资，2.熊市股指下，绝无价值投资，3.熊市股指下，绝无价值投资。请大家仔细品读《下半年看空A股的分析与逻辑》，同时可以扒一扒我在2021年5月之前的作品。对于中美股市的股指，走强走弱，走牛走熊，我基本都是精准预测。但是，当时并没有把这个预测股指的“超能力”用于股指期货和期权，如果当初做了股指期货期权，现在身价至少千万。 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