小布同学的个人主页 - 老虎社区

小布同学

小布同学

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08-15 14:58

$银诺医药－Ｂ(02591)$

07-24

$泡泡玛特(09992)$ 如果泡泡玛特要拍电影。那么新故事来了。中国的迪士尼。

06-19

$泡泡玛特(09992)$ ppmt回调30%才合理

02-06

$亚马逊(AMZN)$ 那pdd继续涨吧

抱歉，原内容已删除

02-05

$京东物流(02618)$ 京东外卖，如果大大的发力。对于京东物流价值几何？

01-21

没看懂，出售与辉同行为什么会产生亏损。不含出售是净盈利。

抱歉，原内容已删除

2024-12-10

$拼多多(PDD)$ 为这一波点赞

2024-10-29

$名创优品(09896)$ 名创玛特+永辉山姆持续看好。翻倍至少。

2023-06-06

$珍酒李渡(06979)$ 本来想顶格打新。还好只买了4000股。不然直接被清盘了

2023-04-27

$珍酒李渡(06979)$ 李渡我喝过好几次。媲美青花郎。

2022-12-05

$RLX科技(RLX)$ 十倍股。燥起来。

2022-11-01

$携程网(TCOM)$

2022-07-24

有啥影响

美联储今年要亏6700亿是怎么回事？

2022-06-30

$能链智电(NAAS)$交易量35w美元，这是上了个寂寞么？

2022-05-23

直接进粉单市场了。不是私有化退市。

滴滴确认将从美国退市！盘前股价巨震

2022-04-05

$滴滴(DIDI)$滴滴股东没有脊梁骨么？大盘掉1.7%，滴滴掉10%。

2022-03-28

$滴滴(DIDI)$滴滴都要造车了。买呀，白菜价[开心]

2022-02-09

$长城汽车(02333)$都是谁在抛售？连续资金流出

2022-01-31

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$相较而言，B站的新年晚会也太好看～

2022-01-21

$9618.SPO(9618.SPO)$tiger 又出低级愚蠢的错误。吓死个人。

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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ppmt回调30%才合理","text":"$泡泡玛特(09992)$ ppmt回调30%才合理","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/447532060848456","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":327,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":400390531567648,"gmtCreate":1738777685622,"gmtModify":1738777687235,"author":{"id":"3472208920632605","authorId":"3472208920632605","name":"小布同学","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ea64446910de23e2f74d944314a2b56","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3472208920632605","authorIdStr":"3472208920632605"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$亚马逊(AMZN)$&nbsp;</a> 那pdd继续涨吧","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$亚马逊(AMZN)$&nbsp;</a> 那pdd继续涨吧","text":"$亚马逊(AMZN)$ 那pdd继续涨吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/400390531567648","repostId":"2509287769","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1255,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":400120499519784,"gmtCreate":1738725349771,"gmtModify":1738726548671,"author":{"id":"3472208920632605","authorId":"3472208920632605","name":"小布同学","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ea64446910de23e2f74d944314a2b56","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3472208920632605","authorIdStr":"3472208920632605"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02618\">$京东物流(02618)$&nbsp;</a> 京东外卖，如果大大的发力。对于京东物流价值几何？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02618\">$京东物流(02618)$&nbsp;</a> 京东外卖，如果大大的发力。对于京东物流价值几何？","text":"$京东物流(02618)$ 京东外卖，如果大大的发力。对于京东物流价值几何？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/400120499519784","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1123,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":395032122475008,"gmtCreate":1737453469788,"gmtModify":1737453470974,"author":{"id":"3472208920632605","authorId":"3472208920632605","name":"小布同学","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ea64446910de23e2f74d944314a2b56","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3472208920632605","authorIdStr":"3472208920632605"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"没看懂，出售与辉同行为什么会产生亏损。不含出售是净盈利。","listText":"没看懂，出售与辉同行为什么会产生亏损。不含出售是净盈利。","text":"没看懂，出售与辉同行为什么会产生亏损。不含出售是净盈利。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/395032122475008","repostId":"2505245089","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1347,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3474321280047639","authorId":"3474321280047639","name":"Jason Cheng","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3474321280047639","authorIdStr":"3474321280047639"},"content":"因为与辉同行收益一分钱没留","text":"因为与辉同行收益一分钱没留","html":"因为与辉同行收益一分钱没留"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":379845925146712,"gmtCreate":1733761107705,"gmtModify":1733761111148,"author":{"id":"3472208920632605","authorId":"3472208920632605","name":"小布同学","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ea64446910de23e2f74d944314a2b56","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3472208920632605","authorIdStr":"3472208920632605"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$&nbsp;</a> 为这一波点赞","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$&nbsp;</a> 为这一波点赞","text":"$拼多多(PDD)$ 为这一波点赞","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42d1fc1d10ad73ac25049118e18db959","width":"1260","height":"2720"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/379845925146712","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1823,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3432280215840950","authorId":"3432280215840950","name":"西瓜有味","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b337ef5e96dc3a50b4071d9a1598319a","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3432280215840950","authorIdStr":"3432280215840950"},"content":"这波不是多多，是中概普涨，小心回调","text":"这波不是多多，是中概普涨，小心回调","html":"这波不是多多，是中概普涨，小心回调"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":365269069140208,"gmtCreate":1730187038439,"gmtModify":1730187040061,"author":{"id":"3472208920632605","authorId":"3472208920632605","name":"小布同学","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ea64446910de23e2f74d944314a2b56","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3472208920632605","authorIdStr":"3472208920632605"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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李渡我喝过好几次。媲美青花郎。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/658826495","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2558,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":629946774,"gmtCreate":1670232457398,"gmtModify":1670232458312,"author":{"id":"3472208920632605","authorId":"3472208920632605","name":"小布同学","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ea64446910de23e2f74d944314a2b56","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3472208920632605","authorIdStr":"3472208920632605"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RLX\">$RLX科技(RLX)$&nbsp;</a>十倍股。燥起来。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RLX\">$RLX科技(RLX)$&nbsp;</a>十倍股。燥起来。","text":"$RLX科技(RLX)$ 十倍股。燥起来。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/629946774","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2658,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":665214357,"gmtCreate":1667301132280,"gmtModify":1667301134043,"author":{"id":"3472208920632605","authorId":"3472208920632605","name":"小布同学","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ea64446910de23e2f74d944314a2b56","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3472208920632605","authorIdStr":"3472208920632605"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCOM\">$携程网(TCOM)$</a>","listText":"<a 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16:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美联储今年要亏6700亿是怎么回事？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169198595","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"随着美债利率飙升，美联储持债账户大幅浮亏，美联储亏了要怎么办？作为实施货币政策的一部分，美联储在公开市场操作账户 (SOMA) 中持有国债和机构抵押贷款支持证券 (MBS)。这些证券的市值会随着利率的","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>随着美债利率飙升，美联储持债账户大幅浮亏，美联储亏了要怎么办？</blockquote><p>作为实施货币政策的一部分，美联储在公开市场操作账户 (SOMA) 中持有国债和机构抵押贷款支持证券 (MBS)。<b>这些证券的市值会随着利率的变化而波动。</b></p><p>今年以来，持续的通胀压力和美联储快速加息，短期内大幅降低了美联储所持证券的市场价值，美联储的净收入也可能出现亏损。</p><p>根据预测2022年底，美联储SOMA账户中的亏损头寸将达到最高约6700亿美元，其向美国财政部的缴款也将因美联储的亏损暂停三年。</p><p>作为美国，甚至是全球流动性的中心，美联储的盈亏机制到底是怎么回事？</p><p>Alyssa Anderson、Dave Na、Bernd Schlusche和Zeynep Senyuz等，在近期发表美联储工作论文《美联储资产负债表利率风险分析，第 1 部分：背景和历史视角》《美联储资产负债表利率风险分析，第 2 部分：替代利率路径下的预测 》对此进行了详细的阐述。</p><p><b>SOMA投资组合的盈亏头寸，一季度亏了3300亿美元？</b></p><p>SOMA投资组合的盈亏头寸是指，其持有证券的市场价值与摊余成本之间的差额。<b>实际上属于未实现损益范畴（浮盈、浮亏），除非美联储即时抛售。</b></p><p>美联储按市场价值购买证券时（通常高于或低于其面值），会按购买价格和票面价值之间的差额，在证券的存续期内进行摊销。证券的摊余成本即购买价格减去已确认的溢价或折价金额，并最终收敛于到期时的面值。</p><p>SOMA持有国债和机构MBS期间，这些证券的市值会随着利率上升或下降而变化。<b>当利率上升时，证券的市值下跌，市值低于摊余成本，就导致浮亏；当利率下降时，市值高于摊余成本，则导致浮盈。</b></p><p>利率与未实现盈亏之间呈显著的反比关系。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce6ebfef0b6ca09f4bbbf152b7cd18a8\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>浮动盈亏的规模取决于两个因素。一个是SOMA投资组合的规模，另一个是利率的变化。</b>在全球金融危机后的几年中，受历史低利率驱动，SOMA投资组合处于浮盈头寸。在2013年“缩减恐慌”期间国债收益率急剧上升，短暂转为浮亏。这一状况在2018年初再次出现。</p><p>2020年新冠疫情爆发，美联储迅速将美国国债收益率推至创纪录的低水平。当年SOMA投资组合的浮盈超过4000亿美元峰值。</p><p>2022年3月，美联储结束了资产购买开始提高联邦基金利率的目标范围。10年期美国国债收益率比去年同期上涨约60个基点，SOMA投资组合再度出现浮亏。市值低于摊余成本高达到3300亿美元，约占总资产的4%。</p><p>其次当前浮动亏损的规模明显高于以往，是因为疫情以来，SOMA购买的证券规模空前扩张所致。SOMA 投资组合的规模两年内翻了一番多，从疫情前的约4万亿美元增加到2022年3月资产购买结束时的约8.5万亿美元。</p><p><b>什么决定了美联储的收入以及如何向财政部缴款？</b></p><p>美联储的净收入主要取决于其在SOMA投资组合中持有的证券所产生的利息收入与其负债相关的利息支出之间的差额。利息收入还包含其他资产的收益，例如回购协议、贴现窗口贷款以及其他信贷和流动性工具，但这些与SOMA投资组合中的国债和机构MBS持有的收益相比，可以说是微不足道。</p><p>在支出方面，美联储对一些负债项目支付利息，例如准备金余额和隔夜逆回购协议 (ON RRP) 工具。美联储将其所有净收入，在扣除运营成本、股息支付以及维持《联邦储备法》要求的盈余所需的任何金额之后，汇入美国财政部。</p><p>美联储的利息收入和支出都会随着政策利率的变化而波动。因此，美联储的收入会受到利率风险的影响。<b>在收入方面，利息收入对政策利率的变化反应缓慢。</b>因为只有当美联储对到期证券进行再投资并购买新的美国国债时，更高的利率才会导致更高的利息收入。相比之下<b>在支出方面，利息费用通过管理利率直接与政策利率挂钩，因此会根据政策利率的变化迅速调整。</b></p><p>负债结构的变化也使得利息支出比以前更容易受到利率变化的影响。准备金和ON RRP等短期有息负债，在美联储总负债中的份额已从2020年初的不到一半增加到2022年3月的约三分之二。从而使得净收入受到利率上升的负面影响更大。</p><p>而SOMA 投资组合的浮动损益不会直接影响美联储的净收入。因为单个证券的市场价值在接近到期时会收敛到其面值。</p><p><b>只有卖出证券，浮动损益才会变成实现的收益或损失，直接影响美联储的净收入。</b><b><u>最典型的行为可能就是主动缩表。</u></b></p><p>美联储的净收入以及向美国财政部的缴款多年来一直在波动，但始终保持正值。新冠疫情爆发之后，联邦基金利率大幅下调，利息费用下降。与此同时，美联储在大量购买美国国债和机构MBS，利息收入显着增加。于是，美联储向美国财政部的缴款在过去两年几乎翻了一番，从2019年的约550亿美元上升到2021年创纪录的1090亿美元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0975c4d06f4979dd770621d3abf8b013\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"721\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>随着货币政策继续收紧，美联储净收入存在暂时转为亏损的风险，短期内向美国财政部的缴款则可能暂停。</p><p><b>SOMA浮动损益、美联储收入和财政部缴款的预测</b></p><p>Alyssa Anderson等在《美联储资产负债表利率风险分析》一文中，围绕与FOMC与会者的经济预测摘要 (SEP) 一致的基线路径，从 FRB/US 模型的随机模拟中生成联邦基金利率、10 年期国债收益率，并对SOMA 投资组合的浮动损益、美联储收入和上缴国库资产进行预测。</p><p><b>1)联邦基金利率和10年期国债收益率预测</b></p><p>从随机模拟中获得联邦基金利率和10年期国债收益率及相关置信区间。基线水平下，联邦基金利率急剧上升，然后略有回落并稳定在2.5%左右。10年期美国国债收益率在短期内大幅上涨，并稳定在3.5%左右。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb49aec91feef163d937a6782947a8cd\" tg-width=\"898\" tg-height=\"454\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2）美联储资产负债表预测</b></p><p>基于上述利率路径，本文对美联储的资产负债表、收入以及SOMA浮动损益进行预测。同时预测也是基于美联储缩减资产负债表的政策框架，假设缩减路径与FOMC在 2022年5月FOMC会议上发布的“缩减美联储资产负债表规模的计划”一致。不过，美联储资产负债表的演变将受到经济和政策未来走向高度不确定性的影响。</p><p>在基线路径下，SOMA持有的资产从2022年的8.5万亿美元下降到2024年缩表结束时的6.3万亿美元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed652ef3c280966d467fc5e55f9912e3\" tg-width=\"885\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3）美联储收入、上缴财政部、递延资产预测</b></p><p>鉴于近期和预期的利率上升，汇款预计将在一段时间内降至零，递延资产（代表在向财政部恢复缴款之前需要实现抵补亏损的未来净收入金额）将记录在美联储的资产负债表。</p><p>在基线路径下，美联储缩表期间，利息收入将在短期内下降，而利息支出将随着准备金和其他美联储负债利率的增加而上升，从而导致暂时的净收入为负。上缴财政部将暂停三年。递延资产达到约600亿美元的峰值，但其尾部这些预测中的风险（由深蓝色区域的上边缘表示）表明递延资产可能高达约1800亿美元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdd9ccdf4aabac6eb4a81ca810939563\" tg-width=\"876\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef527b225605a789e8c97b1cdfc7a11c\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4）SOMA投资组合浮动损益的预测</b></p><p>正如在联邦储备银行合并季度财务报告中公布的那样，截至 2022 年第一季度末，SOMA 投资组合的未实现亏损为3300亿美元，约占投资组合面值的4%。如图5所示，随着利率进一步上升，这一浮动亏损头寸将变得更大。根据基线预测到2022年底，浮动亏损头寸将达到最高约6700亿美元，占投资组合面值的8%左右。但如果利率远高于基线，浮动亏损头寸变化的范围会相当大。如代表尾部风险事件的90%置信区间的下沿，2023年浮动损失的峰值约为1.1万亿美元，约占投资组合面值的 16%。</p><p>但随着当前持有的证券到期，浮动亏损头寸将随着时间的推移收敛于到期时的面值而消失。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/738cb5ee3d6e40394ed40337b51f0c2c\" tg-width=\"854\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>当然根据国会的授权，美联储的任务是实现就业最大化和价格稳定。既不是实现盈利也不是避免亏损。所以，即便利率上升对美联储的净收入以及SOMA投资组合的浮动盈亏有负面作用，也不会影响美联储执行货币政策或履行相关职责。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美联储今年要亏6700亿是怎么回事？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储今年要亏6700亿是怎么回事？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n2022-07-24 16:36 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<strong>华尔街见闻</strong>\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>随着美债利率飙升，美联储持债账户大幅浮亏，美联储亏了要怎么办？作为实施货币政策的一部分，美联储在公开市场操作账户 (SOMA) 中持有国债和机构抵押贷款支持证券 (MBS)。这些证券的市值会随着利率的变化而波动。今年以来，持续的通胀压力和美联储快速加息，短期内大幅降低了美联储所持证券的市场价值，美联储的净收入也可能出现亏损。根据预测2022年底，美联储SOMA账户中的亏损头寸将达到最高约6700...</p>\n\n<a href=\"\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{"513500":"标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","DOG":"道指反向ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169198595","content_text":"随着美债利率飙升，美联储持债账户大幅浮亏，美联储亏了要怎么办？作为实施货币政策的一部分，美联储在公开市场操作账户 (SOMA) 中持有国债和机构抵押贷款支持证券 (MBS)。这些证券的市值会随着利率的变化而波动。今年以来，持续的通胀压力和美联储快速加息，短期内大幅降低了美联储所持证券的市场价值，美联储的净收入也可能出现亏损。根据预测2022年底，美联储SOMA账户中的亏损头寸将达到最高约6700亿美元，其向美国财政部的缴款也将因美联储的亏损暂停三年。作为美国，甚至是全球流动性的中心，美联储的盈亏机制到底是怎么回事？Alyssa Anderson、Dave Na、Bernd Schlusche和Zeynep Senyuz等，在近期发表美联储工作论文《美联储资产负债表利率风险分析，第 1 部分：背景和历史视角》《美联储资产负债表利率风险分析，第 2 部分：替代利率路径下的预测 》对此进行了详细的阐述。SOMA投资组合的盈亏头寸，一季度亏了3300亿美元？SOMA投资组合的盈亏头寸是指，其持有证券的市场价值与摊余成本之间的差额。实际上属于未实现损益范畴（浮盈、浮亏），除非美联储即时抛售。美联储按市场价值购买证券时（通常高于或低于其面值），会按购买价格和票面价值之间的差额，在证券的存续期内进行摊销。证券的摊余成本即购买价格减去已确认的溢价或折价金额，并最终收敛于到期时的面值。SOMA持有国债和机构MBS期间，这些证券的市值会随着利率上升或下降而变化。当利率上升时，证券的市值下跌，市值低于摊余成本，就导致浮亏；当利率下降时，市值高于摊余成本，则导致浮盈。利率与未实现盈亏之间呈显著的反比关系。浮动盈亏的规模取决于两个因素。一个是SOMA投资组合的规模，另一个是利率的变化。在全球金融危机后的几年中，受历史低利率驱动，SOMA投资组合处于浮盈头寸。在2013年“缩减恐慌”期间国债收益率急剧上升，短暂转为浮亏。这一状况在2018年初再次出现。2020年新冠疫情爆发，美联储迅速将美国国债收益率推至创纪录的低水平。当年SOMA投资组合的浮盈超过4000亿美元峰值。2022年3月，美联储结束了资产购买开始提高联邦基金利率的目标范围。10年期美国国债收益率比去年同期上涨约60个基点，SOMA投资组合再度出现浮亏。市值低于摊余成本高达到3300亿美元，约占总资产的4%。其次当前浮动亏损的规模明显高于以往，是因为疫情以来，SOMA购买的证券规模空前扩张所致。SOMA 投资组合的规模两年内翻了一番多，从疫情前的约4万亿美元增加到2022年3月资产购买结束时的约8.5万亿美元。什么决定了美联储的收入以及如何向财政部缴款？美联储的净收入主要取决于其在SOMA投资组合中持有的证券所产生的利息收入与其负债相关的利息支出之间的差额。利息收入还包含其他资产的收益，例如回购协议、贴现窗口贷款以及其他信贷和流动性工具，但这些与SOMA投资组合中的国债和机构MBS持有的收益相比，可以说是微不足道。在支出方面，美联储对一些负债项目支付利息，例如准备金余额和隔夜逆回购协议 (ON RRP) 工具。美联储将其所有净收入，在扣除运营成本、股息支付以及维持《联邦储备法》要求的盈余所需的任何金额之后，汇入美国财政部。美联储的利息收入和支出都会随着政策利率的变化而波动。因此，美联储的收入会受到利率风险的影响。在收入方面，利息收入对政策利率的变化反应缓慢。因为只有当美联储对到期证券进行再投资并购买新的美国国债时，更高的利率才会导致更高的利息收入。相比之下在支出方面，利息费用通过管理利率直接与政策利率挂钩，因此会根据政策利率的变化迅速调整。负债结构的变化也使得利息支出比以前更容易受到利率变化的影响。准备金和ON RRP等短期有息负债，在美联储总负债中的份额已从2020年初的不到一半增加到2022年3月的约三分之二。从而使得净收入受到利率上升的负面影响更大。而SOMA 投资组合的浮动损益不会直接影响美联储的净收入。因为单个证券的市场价值在接近到期时会收敛到其面值。只有卖出证券，浮动损益才会变成实现的收益或损失，直接影响美联储的净收入。最典型的行为可能就是主动缩表。美联储的净收入以及向美国财政部的缴款多年来一直在波动，但始终保持正值。新冠疫情爆发之后，联邦基金利率大幅下调，利息费用下降。与此同时，美联储在大量购买美国国债和机构MBS，利息收入显着增加。于是，美联储向美国财政部的缴款在过去两年几乎翻了一番，从2019年的约550亿美元上升到2021年创纪录的1090亿美元。随着货币政策继续收紧，美联储净收入存在暂时转为亏损的风险，短期内向美国财政部的缴款则可能暂停。SOMA浮动损益、美联储收入和财政部缴款的预测Alyssa Anderson等在《美联储资产负债表利率风险分析》一文中，围绕与FOMC与会者的经济预测摘要 (SEP) 一致的基线路径，从 FRB/US 模型的随机模拟中生成联邦基金利率、10 年期国债收益率，并对SOMA 投资组合的浮动损益、美联储收入和上缴国库资产进行预测。1)联邦基金利率和10年期国债收益率预测从随机模拟中获得联邦基金利率和10年期国债收益率及相关置信区间。基线水平下，联邦基金利率急剧上升，然后略有回落并稳定在2.5%左右。10年期美国国债收益率在短期内大幅上涨，并稳定在3.5%左右。2）美联储资产负债表预测基于上述利率路径，本文对美联储的资产负债表、收入以及SOMA浮动损益进行预测。同时预测也是基于美联储缩减资产负债表的政策框架，假设缩减路径与FOMC在 2022年5月FOMC会议上发布的“缩减美联储资产负债表规模的计划”一致。不过，美联储资产负债表的演变将受到经济和政策未来走向高度不确定性的影响。在基线路径下，SOMA持有的资产从2022年的8.5万亿美元下降到2024年缩表结束时的6.3万亿美元。3）美联储收入、上缴财政部、递延资产预测鉴于近期和预期的利率上升，汇款预计将在一段时间内降至零，递延资产（代表在向财政部恢复缴款之前需要实现抵补亏损的未来净收入金额）将记录在美联储的资产负债表。在基线路径下，美联储缩表期间，利息收入将在短期内下降，而利息支出将随着准备金和其他美联储负债利率的增加而上升，从而导致暂时的净收入为负。上缴财政部将暂停三年。递延资产达到约600亿美元的峰值，但其尾部这些预测中的风险（由深蓝色区域的上边缘表示）表明递延资产可能高达约1800亿美元。4）SOMA投资组合浮动损益的预测正如在联邦储备银行合并季度财务报告中公布的那样，截至 2022 年第一季度末，SOMA 投资组合的未实现亏损为3300亿美元，约占投资组合面值的4%。如图5所示，随着利率进一步上升，这一浮动亏损头寸将变得更大。根据基线预测到2022年底，浮动亏损头寸将达到最高约6700亿美元，占投资组合面值的8%左右。但如果利率远高于基线，浮动亏损头寸变化的范围会相当大。如代表尾部风险事件的90%置信区间的下沿，2023年浮动损失的峰值约为1.1万亿美元，约占投资组合面值的 16%。但随着当前持有的证券到期，浮动亏损头寸将随着时间的推移收敛于到期时的面值而消失。当然根据国会的授权，美联储的任务是实现就业最大化和价格稳定。既不是实现盈利也不是避免亏损。所以，即便利率上升对美联储的净收入以及SOMA投资组合的浮动盈亏有负面作用，也不会影响美联储执行货币政策或履行相关职责。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"513500":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"UPRO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2689,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":683746895,"gmtCreate":1656539066120,"gmtModify":1704865123438,"author":{"id":"3472208920632605","authorId":"3472208920632605","name":"小布同学","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ea64446910de23e2f74d944314a2b56","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3472208920632605","authorIdStr":"3472208920632605"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NAAS\">$能链智电(NAAS)$</a>交易量35w美元，这是上了个寂寞么？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NAAS\">$能链智电(NAAS)$</a>交易量35w美元，这是上了个寂寞么？","text":"$能链智电(NAAS)$交易量35w美元，这是上了个寂寞么？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/683746895","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2541,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":614907173,"gmtCreate":1653312253392,"gmtModify":1653312253392,"author":{"id":"3472208920632605","authorId":"3472208920632605","name":"小布同学","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ea64446910de23e2f74d944314a2b56","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3472208920632605","authorIdStr":"3472208920632605"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"直接进粉单市场了。不是私有化退市。","listText":"直接进粉单市场了。不是私有化退市。","text":"直接进粉单市场了。不是私有化退市。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/614907173","repostId":"1129159429","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1129159429","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1653309655,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129159429?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-05-23 20:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"滴滴确认将从美国退市！盘前股价巨震","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129159429","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"5月23日，滴滴今天宣布，已通知纽约证券交易所，该公司决定继续将其美国存托股从纽约证券交易所退市。该公司计划于2022年6月2日或之后向美国证券交易委员会提交一份FORM 25表格，以便将其美国存托股","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>5月23日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">滴滴</a>今天宣布，已通知纽约证券交易所，该公司决定继续将其美国存托股从纽约证券交易所退市。该公司计划于2022年6月2日或之后向美国证券交易委员会提交一份FORM 25表格，以便将其美国存托股从纽约证券交易所退市，预计该退市将在FORM 25表格生效后的十天内进行。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b2c062b7fc0a9623a8268e61e51a67b\" tg-width=\"1805\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>消息发布后，滴滴盘前股价巨震，一度由跌6%转涨超11%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50e6745f05a0bbf67daedcbcdbcf4997\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-05-23 20:40</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>5月23日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">滴滴</a>今天宣布，已通知纽约证券交易所，该公司决定继续将其美国存托股从纽约证券交易所退市。该公司计划于2022年6月2日或之后向美国证券交易委员会提交一份FORM 25表格，以便将其美国存托股从纽约证券交易所退市，预计该退市将在FORM 25表格生效后的十天内进行。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b2c062b7fc0a9623a8268e61e51a67b\" tg-width=\"1805\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>消息发布后，滴滴盘前股价巨震，一度由跌6%转涨超11%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50e6745f05a0bbf67daedcbcdbcf4997\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9f14473f3e986de32cc80f6fd80b679","relate_stocks":{"DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129159429","content_text":"5月23日，滴滴今天宣布，已通知纽约证券交易所，该公司决定继续将其美国存托股从纽约证券交易所退市。该公司计划于2022年6月2日或之后向美国证券交易委员会提交一份FORM 25表格，以便将其美国存托股从纽约证券交易所退市，预计该退市将在FORM 25表格生效后的十天内进行。消息发布后，滴滴盘前股价巨震，一度由跌6%转涨超11%","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DIDI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2407,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":619814680,"gmtCreate":1649174139098,"gmtModify":1649174139098,"author":{"id":"3472208920632605","authorId":"3472208920632605","name":"小布同学","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ea64446910de23e2f74d944314a2b56","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3472208920632605","authorIdStr":"3472208920632605"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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20:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"滴滴确认将从美国退市！盘前股价巨震","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129159429","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"5月23日，滴滴今天宣布，已通知纽约证券交易所，该公司决定继续将其美国存托股从纽约证券交易所退市。该公司计划于2022年6月2日或之后向美国证券交易委员会提交一份FORM 25表格，以便将其美国存托股","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>5月23日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">滴滴</a>今天宣布，已通知纽约证券交易所，该公司决定继续将其美国存托股从纽约证券交易所退市。该公司计划于2022年6月2日或之后向美国证券交易委员会提交一份FORM 25表格，以便将其美国存托股从纽约证券交易所退市，预计该退市将在FORM 25表格生效后的十天内进行。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b2c062b7fc0a9623a8268e61e51a67b\" tg-width=\"1805\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>消息发布后，滴滴盘前股价巨震，一度由跌6%转涨超11%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50e6745f05a0bbf67daedcbcdbcf4997\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>滴滴确认将从美国退市！盘前股价巨震</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n滴滴确认将从美国退市！盘前股价巨震\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-05-23 20:40</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>5月23日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">滴滴</a>今天宣布，已通知纽约证券交易所，该公司决定继续将其美国存托股从纽约证券交易所退市。该公司计划于2022年6月2日或之后向美国证券交易委员会提交一份FORM 25表格，以便将其美国存托股从纽约证券交易所退市，预计该退市将在FORM 25表格生效后的十天内进行。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b2c062b7fc0a9623a8268e61e51a67b\" tg-width=\"1805\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>消息发布后，滴滴盘前股价巨震，一度由跌6%转涨超11%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50e6745f05a0bbf67daedcbcdbcf4997\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9f14473f3e986de32cc80f6fd80b679","relate_stocks":{"DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129159429","content_text":"5月23日，滴滴今天宣布，已通知纽约证券交易所，该公司决定继续将其美国存托股从纽约证券交易所退市。该公司计划于2022年6月2日或之后向美国证券交易委员会提交一份FORM 25表格，以便将其美国存托股从纽约证券交易所退市，预计该退市将在FORM 25表格生效后的十天内进行。消息发布后，滴滴盘前股价巨震，一度由跌6%转涨超11%","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DIDI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2407,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":633991316,"gmtCreate":1643641166932,"gmtModify":1643641166932,"author":{"id":"3472208920632605","authorId":"3472208920632605","name":"小布同学","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ea64446910de23e2f74d944314a2b56","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3472208920632605","authorIdStr":"3472208920632605"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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