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大飛哥
05-20 16:24
$宁德时代(03750)$
卖早了,少赚700元
大飛哥
05-20 13:07
$宁德时代(03750)$
挣点得了
大飛哥
05-14
$绿茶集团(06831)$
中了800
大飛哥
05-06
$沪上阿姨(02589)$
申购6000股未中签。老不中我要换券商了
大飛哥
04-18
$霸王茶姬(CHA)$
无聊啊,费半天劲,目前挣了500.放着吧
大飛哥
04-17
$霸王茶姬(CHA)$
哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈
大飛哥
04-17
$霸王茶姬(CHA)$
给我来3000股
大飛哥
04-12
$AAPL 20250516 230.0 CALL$
大飛哥
04-12
$AAPL 20250516 230.0 CALL$
哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈 重仓了苹果CALL 坐等大涨
大飛哥
04-12
苹果至少230
苹果股价连续反弹,市场在押注iPhone获得关税豁免吗?
大飛哥
03-07
最看不上雷军
大飛哥
03-01
$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$
感觉买少了
大飛哥
02-27
$NVDA 20250228 112.0 PUT$
今天还不得奔140?
大飛哥
02-27
$英伟达(NVDA)$
财报不是挺好的,怎么也的应该140+啊
大飛哥
02-26
$苹果(AAPL)$
为何一上来跌了2% 没看懂
大飛哥
02-25
$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$
好
大飛哥
02-21
$ALPHA ARCHITECT 1-3 MONTH BOX ETF(BOXX)$
各位老板,这玩意大概得年化收益率有多少
大飛哥
2024-06-21
要点脸吧,大佬别fp
朱啸虎:年底GPT-5达不到预期,英伟达市值就“完蛋了”
大飛哥
2024-06-14
现在发算新闻?
抱歉,原内容已删除
大飛哥
2024-06-14
已经大涨了就别说了
美国超导涨超13%,获加拿大公司巨额合同,去年曾单日暴涨60%
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈","text":"$霸王茶姬(CHA)$ 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17:34","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"苹果股价连续反弹,市场在押注iPhone获得关税豁免吗?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2526605266","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"“90%的投资者都相信苹果将获得关税豁免”,毕竟,苹果在特朗普1.0时期就获得过一次豁免。华尔街认为,“美国优先”政策指引下,特朗普可能不会希望伤害像苹果这样的美国标志性企业,特别是在该公司承诺未来四年在美国投资5000亿美元之后。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>“90%的投资者都相信苹果将获得关税豁免”,毕竟,苹果在特朗普1.0时期就获得过一次豁免。华尔街认为,“美国优先”政策指引下,特朗普可能不会希望伤害像苹果这样的美国标志性企业,特别是在该公司承诺未来四年在美国投资5000亿美元之后。</p></blockquote><p>关税豁免预期升温,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>股价反弹。</p><p>特朗普关税大棒落地后,苹果股价经历了一波暴跌,但在过去两天,意外出现了剧烈反弹。<strong>苹果股价自4月9日以来飙升了15%,市值增加4000多亿美元,本周五股价单日上涨4.1%,收于198.15美元。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b0c723c5eb7d81355b7369ebb2ca978\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p><strong>这一反弹源自华尔街分析师和投资者越来越相信苹果将获得关税豁免,这一预期已成为支撑股价的关键因素。</strong></p><p>CFRA Research分析师Angelo Zino表示,苹果获得豁免的可能性已经显著增加:</p><blockquote><p>“按目前情况,<strong>关税影响对苹果来说尤为严重,潜在增加其销售成本约500亿美元。</strong>”</p><p>“我们预计苹果会推迟将任何关税成本转嫁给消费者,直到秋季产品周期,同时如果贸易协议短期内无法实现,我们将苹果获得特殊豁免的概率从20%提高到50%。”</p></blockquote><p>Mizuho Securities交易台分析师Jordan Klein的观点更为乐观,他表示与之交谈的投资者都坚信特朗普将向苹果提供豁免:</p><blockquote><p>“90%的投资者似乎相信苹果将获得关税豁免,毕竟该公司在2018年特朗普执政期间就获得过一次豁免。”</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_1896526236\">美国就业与政治考量支撑豁免可能</h2><p>在当前地缘政治紧张局势下,苹果独特的地位可能成为其获得特殊待遇的关键。</p><p>分析师们指出,<strong>特朗普不会希望伤害像苹果这样的美国标志性企业,</strong>特别是在该公司承诺未来四年在美国制造业和其他国内投资上支出超过5000亿美元之后。</p><p>Jordan Klein强调:</p><blockquote><p><strong>“该公司雇佣了太多人,美国选民过度依赖iPhone,不会接受iPhone售价达到2000美元的情况。”</strong></p></blockquote><p>另一个支持苹果获得豁免的论点是,<strong>特朗普的关税政策可能反而助力了苹果的主要竞争对手——韩国的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SSNLF\">三星电子</a>。</strong>从政治角度看,这种结果显然与特朗普的“美国优先”政策相悖。</p><h2 id=\"id_2252992744\">苹果并非完全依赖豁免,已开始多管齐下应对</h2><p>尽管市场普遍看好苹果获得豁免的前景,但该公司并未将所有希望寄托于此。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师Erik Woodring表示:</p><blockquote><p>“我们不认为苹果将仅仅押注于总统豁免,而且正如我们在跟踪该公司时所了解的,苹果始终保持长期思考。”</p></blockquote><p>苹果近年来一直致力于将其产业链多元化,包括将部分iPhone生产转移到印度。在90天关税缓期内,苹果可能将寻求其印度合作伙伴,以满足美国iPhone需求。</p><p>Woodring估计,为满足美国的iPhone需求,<strong>苹果需要将其印度生产能力提高一倍,尽管这可能需要更长时间才能实现。</strong></p><p>还有观点指出,另一种策略是<strong>通过提供融资计划、增加运营商补贴和提高以旧换新价值</strong>来缓解人为抬高的iPhone价格。</p><p>如果无法获得豁免,苹果可能会采取其他策略减轻关税压力。大摩分析称,苹果可能会取消低端iPhone存储模型,将需求转向利润率更高的iPhone型号。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>苹果股价连续反弹,市场在押注iPhone获得关税豁免吗?</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n苹果股价连续反弹,市场在押注iPhone获得关税豁免吗?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-04-12 17:34 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3745086><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>“90%的投资者都相信苹果将获得关税豁免”,毕竟,苹果在特朗普1.0时期就获得过一次豁免。华尔街认为,“美国优先”政策指引下,特朗普可能不会希望伤害像苹果这样的美国标志性企业,特别是在该公司承诺未来四年在美国投资5000亿美元之后。关税豁免预期升温,苹果股价反弹。特朗普关税大棒落地后,苹果股价经历了一波暴跌,但在过去两天,意外出现了剧烈反弹。苹果股价自4月9日以来飙升了15%,市值增加4000...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3745086\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dd8e37009a141c78b4a4ede34830062","relate_stocks":{"LU0957808578.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"ZU\" (USD) ACC","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","LU2065171402.SGD":"M&G (LUX) GLOBAL MAXIMA \"A\" (SGD) INC","LU1506573853.SGD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL EQUITY \"AA\" (SGD) INC","LU1366192091.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY PLUS \"AM\" (USD) INC","LU2360032135.SGD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL EQUITY ENHANCED INCOME \"A\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU2168564495.EUR":"AZ ALLOCATION - TREND \"AI\" (EUR) ACC","BK4512":"苹果概念","LU2125154778.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL EQUITY ENHANCED INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1989772923.USD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc USD-H","LU2168564065.EUR":"AZ ALLOCATION - TREND \"AAZ\" (EUR) ACC","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" 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(HKD) INC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3745086","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2526605266","content_text":"“90%的投资者都相信苹果将获得关税豁免”,毕竟,苹果在特朗普1.0时期就获得过一次豁免。华尔街认为,“美国优先”政策指引下,特朗普可能不会希望伤害像苹果这样的美国标志性企业,特别是在该公司承诺未来四年在美国投资5000亿美元之后。关税豁免预期升温,苹果股价反弹。特朗普关税大棒落地后,苹果股价经历了一波暴跌,但在过去两天,意外出现了剧烈反弹。苹果股价自4月9日以来飙升了15%,市值增加4000多亿美元,本周五股价单日上涨4.1%,收于198.15美元。这一反弹源自华尔街分析师和投资者越来越相信苹果将获得关税豁免,这一预期已成为支撑股价的关键因素。CFRA Research分析师Angelo Zino表示,苹果获得豁免的可能性已经显著增加:“按目前情况,关税影响对苹果来说尤为严重,潜在增加其销售成本约500亿美元。”“我们预计苹果会推迟将任何关税成本转嫁给消费者,直到秋季产品周期,同时如果贸易协议短期内无法实现,我们将苹果获得特殊豁免的概率从20%提高到50%。”Mizuho Securities交易台分析师Jordan Klein的观点更为乐观,他表示与之交谈的投资者都坚信特朗普将向苹果提供豁免:“90%的投资者似乎相信苹果将获得关税豁免,毕竟该公司在2018年特朗普执政期间就获得过一次豁免。”美国就业与政治考量支撑豁免可能在当前地缘政治紧张局势下,苹果独特的地位可能成为其获得特殊待遇的关键。分析师们指出,特朗普不会希望伤害像苹果这样的美国标志性企业,特别是在该公司承诺未来四年在美国制造业和其他国内投资上支出超过5000亿美元之后。Jordan Klein强调:“该公司雇佣了太多人,美国选民过度依赖iPhone,不会接受iPhone售价达到2000美元的情况。”另一个支持苹果获得豁免的论点是,特朗普的关税政策可能反而助力了苹果的主要竞争对手——韩国的三星电子。从政治角度看,这种结果显然与特朗普的“美国优先”政策相悖。苹果并非完全依赖豁免,已开始多管齐下应对尽管市场普遍看好苹果获得豁免的前景,但该公司并未将所有希望寄托于此。摩根士丹利分析师Erik Woodring表示:“我们不认为苹果将仅仅押注于总统豁免,而且正如我们在跟踪该公司时所了解的,苹果始终保持长期思考。”苹果近年来一直致力于将其产业链多元化,包括将部分iPhone生产转移到印度。在90天关税缓期内,苹果可能将寻求其印度合作伙伴,以满足美国iPhone需求。Woodring估计,为满足美国的iPhone需求,苹果需要将其印度生产能力提高一倍,尽管这可能需要更长时间才能实现。还有观点指出,另一种策略是通过提供融资计划、增加运营商补贴和提高以旧换新价值来缓解人为抬高的iPhone价格。如果无法获得豁免,苹果可能会采取其他策略减轻关税压力。大摩分析称,苹果可能会取消低端iPhone存储模型,将需求转向利润率更高的iPhone型号。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":297,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":410894413377688,"gmtCreate":1741349738657,"gmtModify":1741349740902,"author":{"id":"3474643564163766","authorId":"3474643564163766","name":"大飛哥","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7b8ab1bb216c14e1bc7c36b6dde4ac4","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3474643564163766","authorIdStr":"3474643564163766"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"最看不上雷军","listText":"最看不上雷军","text":"最看不上雷军","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/410894413377688","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":892,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":408818690941376,"gmtCreate":1740827300440,"gmtModify":1740827301825,"author":{"id":"3474643564163766","authorId":"3474643564163766","name":"大飛哥","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7b8ab1bb216c14e1bc7c36b6dde4ac4","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3474643564163766","authorIdStr":"3474643564163766"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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15:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"朱啸虎:年底GPT-5达不到预期,英伟达市值就“完蛋了”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144695188","media":"新浪科技","summary":"大部分被AI取代的人,是因为上班摸鱼太多了。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p> 文丨周文猛</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 在中国创投行业,“周期论”一直是被高频提及的话题。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 近日,金沙江创投主管合伙人朱啸虎表示,“当前,中国正在进入一个以10年为单位的长周期中,而在以前,周期的单位是2~3年。”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 朱啸虎指出,在周期变长的情况下,生成式AI、PC/移动互联网以及平价消费等领域,仍会出现新的机会点。而对于中国企业和中国消费者而言,都要追求性价比,“就像拼多多一样地给消费者创造极致性价比”。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 此外,他还分享了自己对于AI投资、英伟达的理解。他预判,预计到今年年底,如果OpeanAI的GPT-5.0模型没能发布,或者能力未达到有效提升,英伟达全球第一的市值可能“就完蛋了”。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 以下是《WeTalk》栏目整理的与朱啸虎对话要点,在保持原意的基础上略有修改。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> <strong>“中国现在一些AI创新,要比美国领先”</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 新浪科技:您不投AI大模型公司,但会投AI应用,现在有开始看项目吗?最近流行一个说法是做To B软件的都不赚钱,软件企业都很惨,但AI投资To B又快于To C,你怎么看?</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 朱啸虎:第一,中国企业和中国消费者一样,都要追求性价比。我觉得中国最大问题是程序员太多了,全世界3000万,中国有700万,而且中国700万程序员工作特别努力,工作量都是别人的2-3倍以上。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 第二,实际上中国软件(29.490, 0.51, 1.76%)企业并不惨,大家就是忽视了汇率。中国的软件行业如果把两三亿人民币的收入,比作两三亿美金的收入,中国软件企业不比美国差的。中国只是因为人力成本便宜,国内生产服务业问题就是汇率。 </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 我认为,AI以后可能还是有机会,因为AI可以帮助企业降本增效再升一个数量级,这个时候客户就非常愿意付钱。我就用AI赋能的软件,可能比传统软件要在中国更有机会点,就像拼多多一样地给消费者创造极致性价比。然后AI软件同样给企业客户创造极致性价比,这个时候客户很愿意付钱。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 新浪科技:你现在有跟硅谷的团队开AI会议吗?之前有传中国投资人已经不参与会议了?</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 朱啸虎:开会的,但是以前专门有开一个关于AI对中国创新的会,现在我们还是,但更多的是我们和美国人讲,我们在中国的AI应用上有哪些创新。中国现在的一些AI创新,其实要比美国领先的,第一是数据多,第二是很多时候现在AI达不到100%的准确,在很细分领域可能是60%左右,最好可能80%多,剩下的工作基本是需要人工补齐的,但是需要人工补齐这块,中国肯定是有优势的。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> <strong>“年底GPT-5.0达不到预期,英伟达市值就完蛋了”</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 新浪科技:你怎么看英伟达的?他也是AI的底层,现在市值已经全球第一了。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 朱啸虎:就看Scaling Law(规模法则)有没有效果,如果Scaling Law无效了,它的股价就会跌得一塌糊涂。要看到今年底,OpeanAI能不能发布GPT-5.0,如果是10万-20万张GPU堆算力砸下去,还见不到(GPT)智能能力提升,那英伟达他就完蛋了。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 当然,黄教主(黄仁勋)确实很会销售,他搞了一个主权AI,想让每个国家都要去买自己的AI芯片。所以他会创造概念去销售,今年的股价应该是能撑得住的,但是如果到年底GPT-5.0还做不出来,大家怀疑,就开始危险了。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 新浪科技:前两天苹果提出了一个Apple Intelligence,也可以理解为端侧AI,你怎么看这个事情?</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 朱啸虎:苹果的发布会非常有意思,它至少说明两个问题。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 第一,最重要的是用户体验,而不是技术。你看iPad 新增的那个计算器,你说有啥技术?其实没啥技术,但是用户体验特别好。而且苹果重新定义了入口问题,今天它也可以使用OpenAI的GPT了,但他不给GPT导用户,说明苹果的用户信息不给OpenAI,只统一调接口去访问这个服务就行了,很和谐。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 第二,苹果可以随时切掉OpenAI的服务。之前谷歌为进入苹果生态,每年给苹果支付100多亿美金,今天苹果和OpenAI双方是免费的,如果谷歌的Gemini追上来了,然后再给苹果支付100亿美金,iPhone肯定也会用。所以,最终还是入口为王,而且苹果自己也在做大模型,如果一直没有GPT-5.0,苹果大模型性能上来后,可能就用自己的GPT了。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> <strong>“大部分被AI取代的人,是因为上班摸鱼太多了”</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 新浪科技:如果给想进入AI领域的投资者提一些建议,你会说什么?</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 朱啸虎:你能不能给你的用户创造一个数量级以上的价值,让你的用户对这样的产品尖叫“哇”,这样的极致效果。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 新浪科技:还会有这样的产品吗?</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 朱啸虎:很多,你需要聚焦到一个垂直行业,在这个行业里面生根,真正懂你的客户,知道他们要什么东西。而且知道什么事情是今天AI能做的,或者你加20%的人都能够补齐的。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 新浪科技:对个人有什么建议呢?我们正在经历长周期,而且大家对AI的发展也比较焦虑,它什么都能做!</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 朱啸虎:AI肯定不可能100%取代人类,我觉得达到80%已经很了不起了,在很多细分领域,很多大模型还只能达到50%左右。你只要把你工作效率变得很高,你的表现不要比下面一半的人差,就可以了。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 大部分人为什么被取代,完全是因为上班摸鱼太多,没有用智商。</p></body></html>","source":"sina_tech","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>朱啸虎:年底GPT-5达不到预期,英伟达市值就“完蛋了”</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n朱啸虎:年底GPT-5达不到预期,英伟达市值就“完蛋了”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-06-21 15:46 北京时间 <a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2024-06-21/doc-inazntae1257659.shtml><strong>新浪科技</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>文丨周文猛 在中国创投行业,“周期论”一直是被高频提及的话题。 近日,金沙江创投主管合伙人朱啸虎表示,“当前,中国正在进入一个以10年为单位的长周期中,而在以前,周期的单位是2~3年。” 朱啸虎指出,在周期变长的情况下,生成式AI、PC/移动互联网以及平价消费等领域,仍会出现新的机会点。而对于中国企业和中国消费者而言,都要追求性价比,“就像拼多多一样地给消费者创造极致性价比”。 此外,他还...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2024-06-21/doc-inazntae1257659.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d788f727e26434db149309671116a447","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2024-06-21/doc-inazntae1257659.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144695188","content_text":"文丨周文猛 在中国创投行业,“周期论”一直是被高频提及的话题。 近日,金沙江创投主管合伙人朱啸虎表示,“当前,中国正在进入一个以10年为单位的长周期中,而在以前,周期的单位是2~3年。” 朱啸虎指出,在周期变长的情况下,生成式AI、PC/移动互联网以及平价消费等领域,仍会出现新的机会点。而对于中国企业和中国消费者而言,都要追求性价比,“就像拼多多一样地给消费者创造极致性价比”。 此外,他还分享了自己对于AI投资、英伟达的理解。他预判,预计到今年年底,如果OpeanAI的GPT-5.0模型没能发布,或者能力未达到有效提升,英伟达全球第一的市值可能“就完蛋了”。 以下是《WeTalk》栏目整理的与朱啸虎对话要点,在保持原意的基础上略有修改。 “中国现在一些AI创新,要比美国领先” 新浪科技:您不投AI大模型公司,但会投AI应用,现在有开始看项目吗?最近流行一个说法是做To B软件的都不赚钱,软件企业都很惨,但AI投资To B又快于To C,你怎么看? 朱啸虎:第一,中国企业和中国消费者一样,都要追求性价比。我觉得中国最大问题是程序员太多了,全世界3000万,中国有700万,而且中国700万程序员工作特别努力,工作量都是别人的2-3倍以上。 第二,实际上中国软件(29.490, 0.51, 1.76%)企业并不惨,大家就是忽视了汇率。中国的软件行业如果把两三亿人民币的收入,比作两三亿美金的收入,中国软件企业不比美国差的。中国只是因为人力成本便宜,国内生产服务业问题就是汇率。 我认为,AI以后可能还是有机会,因为AI可以帮助企业降本增效再升一个数量级,这个时候客户就非常愿意付钱。我就用AI赋能的软件,可能比传统软件要在中国更有机会点,就像拼多多一样地给消费者创造极致性价比。然后AI软件同样给企业客户创造极致性价比,这个时候客户很愿意付钱。 新浪科技:你现在有跟硅谷的团队开AI会议吗?之前有传中国投资人已经不参与会议了? 朱啸虎:开会的,但是以前专门有开一个关于AI对中国创新的会,现在我们还是,但更多的是我们和美国人讲,我们在中国的AI应用上有哪些创新。中国现在的一些AI创新,其实要比美国领先的,第一是数据多,第二是很多时候现在AI达不到100%的准确,在很细分领域可能是60%左右,最好可能80%多,剩下的工作基本是需要人工补齐的,但是需要人工补齐这块,中国肯定是有优势的。 “年底GPT-5.0达不到预期,英伟达市值就完蛋了” 新浪科技:你怎么看英伟达的?他也是AI的底层,现在市值已经全球第一了。 朱啸虎:就看Scaling Law(规模法则)有没有效果,如果Scaling Law无效了,它的股价就会跌得一塌糊涂。要看到今年底,OpeanAI能不能发布GPT-5.0,如果是10万-20万张GPU堆算力砸下去,还见不到(GPT)智能能力提升,那英伟达他就完蛋了。 当然,黄教主(黄仁勋)确实很会销售,他搞了一个主权AI,想让每个国家都要去买自己的AI芯片。所以他会创造概念去销售,今年的股价应该是能撑得住的,但是如果到年底GPT-5.0还做不出来,大家怀疑,就开始危险了。 新浪科技:前两天苹果提出了一个Apple Intelligence,也可以理解为端侧AI,你怎么看这个事情? 朱啸虎:苹果的发布会非常有意思,它至少说明两个问题。 第一,最重要的是用户体验,而不是技术。你看iPad 新增的那个计算器,你说有啥技术?其实没啥技术,但是用户体验特别好。而且苹果重新定义了入口问题,今天它也可以使用OpenAI的GPT了,但他不给GPT导用户,说明苹果的用户信息不给OpenAI,只统一调接口去访问这个服务就行了,很和谐。 第二,苹果可以随时切掉OpenAI的服务。之前谷歌为进入苹果生态,每年给苹果支付100多亿美金,今天苹果和OpenAI双方是免费的,如果谷歌的Gemini追上来了,然后再给苹果支付100亿美金,iPhone肯定也会用。所以,最终还是入口为王,而且苹果自己也在做大模型,如果一直没有GPT-5.0,苹果大模型性能上来后,可能就用自己的GPT了。 “大部分被AI取代的人,是因为上班摸鱼太多了” 新浪科技:如果给想进入AI领域的投资者提一些建议,你会说什么? 朱啸虎:你能不能给你的用户创造一个数量级以上的价值,让你的用户对这样的产品尖叫“哇”,这样的极致效果。 新浪科技:还会有这样的产品吗? 朱啸虎:很多,你需要聚焦到一个垂直行业,在这个行业里面生根,真正懂你的客户,知道他们要什么东西。而且知道什么事情是今天AI能做的,或者你加20%的人都能够补齐的。 新浪科技:对个人有什么建议呢?我们正在经历长周期,而且大家对AI的发展也比较焦虑,它什么都能做! 朱啸虎:AI肯定不可能100%取代人类,我觉得达到80%已经很了不起了,在很多细分领域,很多大模型还只能达到50%左右。你只要把你工作效率变得很高,你的表现不要比下面一半的人差,就可以了。 大部分人为什么被取代,完全是因为上班摸鱼太多,没有用智商。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1241,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":316737308225584,"gmtCreate":1718347000080,"gmtModify":1718347287959,"author":{"id":"3474643564163766","authorId":"3474643564163766","name":"大飛哥","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7b8ab1bb216c14e1bc7c36b6dde4ac4","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3474643564163766","authorIdStr":"3474643564163766"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"现在发算新闻?","listText":"现在发算新闻?","text":"现在发算新闻?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/316737308225584","repostId":"1177152217","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1618,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":316626240880696,"gmtCreate":1718329137946,"gmtModify":1718329951347,"author":{"id":"3474643564163766","authorId":"3474643564163766","name":"大飛哥","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7b8ab1bb216c14e1bc7c36b6dde4ac4","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3474643564163766","authorIdStr":"3474643564163766"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"已经大涨了就别说了","listText":"已经大涨了就别说了","text":"已经大涨了就别说了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/316626240880696","repostId":"1133369777","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1133369777","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1718292084,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1133369777?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-06-13 23:21","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美国超导涨超13%,获加拿大公司巨额合同,去年曾单日暴涨60%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133369777","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"根据协议,美国超导将为加拿大皇家海军提供防雷设备和支持。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>周四,美国超导股价走高,截至发稿涨超13%。该公司年内涨幅近140%。消息面上,美国超导与加拿大造船公司Irving Shipbuilding签署了一份价值7500万美元的多年期合同。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da6f93c59c8616e59fe4f7a8115b089a\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>根据协议,美国超导将为加拿大皇家海军提供防雷设备和支持。该公司的消磁系统旨在减少使船只被水雷探测到的磁特征。加拿大80%以上的海军舰艇都是由Irving Shipbuilding建造的。</p><p>在2023年6月启动的那波炒作中,美国超导曾单日暴涨60%。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美国超导涨超13%,获加拿大公司巨额合同,去年曾单日暴涨60%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ 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23:21</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>周四,美国超导股价走高,截至发稿涨超13%。该公司年内涨幅近140%。消息面上,美国超导与加拿大造船公司Irving Shipbuilding签署了一份价值7500万美元的多年期合同。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da6f93c59c8616e59fe4f7a8115b089a\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>根据协议,美国超导将为加拿大皇家海军提供防雷设备和支持。该公司的消磁系统旨在减少使船只被水雷探测到的磁特征。加拿大80%以上的海军舰艇都是由Irving Shipbuilding建造的。</p><p>在2023年6月启动的那波炒作中,美国超导曾单日暴涨60%。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b6b1ec11f44743252d91494477b1825","relate_stocks":{"AMSC":"美国超导"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133369777","content_text":"周四,美国超导股价走高,截至发稿涨超13%。该公司年内涨幅近140%。消息面上,美国超导与加拿大造船公司Irving Shipbuilding签署了一份价值7500万美元的多年期合同。根据协议,美国超导将为加拿大皇家海军提供防雷设备和支持。该公司的消磁系统旨在减少使船只被水雷探测到的磁特征。加拿大80%以上的海军舰艇都是由Irving 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15:15","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"北京市住建委发布调整通州区商品住房销售政策的通知","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183310853","media":"北京市住建委","summary":"限购放宽。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>北京市住房和城乡建设委员会、北京市通州区人民政府发布调整通州区商品住房销售政策的通知。通知指出,具有本市购房资格且符合以下条件之一的家庭,可在通州区购买1套商品住房:</p><p>一、在本市未拥有住房的本市户籍居民家庭。</p><p>二、在本市已拥有1套住房的通州区户籍居民家庭。</p><p>三、在本市已拥有1套住房,与在通州区注册或经营的企业、疏解搬迁至通州区的党政机关、企事业单位存在劳动关系的本市户籍居民家庭。</p><p>四、在本市未拥有住房,与在通州区注册或经营的企业、疏解搬迁至通州区的企事业单位存在劳动关系的非本市户籍居民家庭。</p><p>本通知自发布之日起实施。此前有关通州区商品住房销售政策与本通知不一致的,以本通知为准。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1702543990474","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>北京市住建委发布调整通州区商品住房销售政策的通知</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n北京市住建委发布调整通州区商品住房销售政策的通知\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-02-06 15:15 北京时间 <a href=https://zjw.beijing.gov.cn/bjjs/fwgl/tzgg/436353881/index.shtml><strong>北京市住建委</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>北京市住房和城乡建设委员会、北京市通州区人民政府发布调整通州区商品住房销售政策的通知。通知指出,具有本市购房资格且符合以下条件之一的家庭,可在通州区购买1套商品住房:一、在本市未拥有住房的本市户籍居民家庭。二、在本市已拥有1套住房的通州区户籍居民家庭。三、在本市已拥有1套住房,与在通州区注册或经营的企业、疏解搬迁至通州区的党政机关、企事业单位存在劳动关系的本市户籍居民家庭。四、在本市未拥有住房,与...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://zjw.beijing.gov.cn/bjjs/fwgl/tzgg/436353881/index.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ae0555dd414b3f7de4af00b547725e6","relate_stocks":{"512200":"房地产ETF"},"source_url":"https://zjw.beijing.gov.cn/bjjs/fwgl/tzgg/436353881/index.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183310853","content_text":"北京市住房和城乡建设委员会、北京市通州区人民政府发布调整通州区商品住房销售政策的通知。通知指出,具有本市购房资格且符合以下条件之一的家庭,可在通州区购买1套商品住房:一、在本市未拥有住房的本市户籍居民家庭。二、在本市已拥有1套住房的通州区户籍居民家庭。三、在本市已拥有1套住房,与在通州区注册或经营的企业、疏解搬迁至通州区的党政机关、企事业单位存在劳动关系的本市户籍居民家庭。四、在本市未拥有住房,与在通州区注册或经营的企业、疏解搬迁至通州区的企事业单位存在劳动关系的非本市户籍居民家庭。本通知自发布之日起实施。此前有关通州区商品住房销售政策与本通知不一致的,以本通知为准。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2343,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":319284949852416,"gmtCreate":1718980518351,"gmtModify":1718983317547,"author":{"id":"3474643564163766","authorId":"3474643564163766","name":"大飛哥","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7b8ab1bb216c14e1bc7c36b6dde4ac4","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3474643564163766","authorIdStr":"3474643564163766"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"要点脸吧,大佬别fp","listText":"要点脸吧,大佬别fp","text":"要点脸吧,大佬别fp","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/319284949852416","repostId":"1144695188","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1144695188","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1718955980,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1144695188?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-06-21 15:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"朱啸虎:年底GPT-5达不到预期,英伟达市值就“完蛋了”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144695188","media":"新浪科技","summary":"大部分被AI取代的人,是因为上班摸鱼太多了。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p> 文丨周文猛</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 在中国创投行业,“周期论”一直是被高频提及的话题。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 近日,金沙江创投主管合伙人朱啸虎表示,“当前,中国正在进入一个以10年为单位的长周期中,而在以前,周期的单位是2~3年。”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 朱啸虎指出,在周期变长的情况下,生成式AI、PC/移动互联网以及平价消费等领域,仍会出现新的机会点。而对于中国企业和中国消费者而言,都要追求性价比,“就像拼多多一样地给消费者创造极致性价比”。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 此外,他还分享了自己对于AI投资、英伟达的理解。他预判,预计到今年年底,如果OpeanAI的GPT-5.0模型没能发布,或者能力未达到有效提升,英伟达全球第一的市值可能“就完蛋了”。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 以下是《WeTalk》栏目整理的与朱啸虎对话要点,在保持原意的基础上略有修改。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> <strong>“中国现在一些AI创新,要比美国领先”</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 新浪科技:您不投AI大模型公司,但会投AI应用,现在有开始看项目吗?最近流行一个说法是做To B软件的都不赚钱,软件企业都很惨,但AI投资To B又快于To C,你怎么看?</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 朱啸虎:第一,中国企业和中国消费者一样,都要追求性价比。我觉得中国最大问题是程序员太多了,全世界3000万,中国有700万,而且中国700万程序员工作特别努力,工作量都是别人的2-3倍以上。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 第二,实际上中国软件(29.490, 0.51, 1.76%)企业并不惨,大家就是忽视了汇率。中国的软件行业如果把两三亿人民币的收入,比作两三亿美金的收入,中国软件企业不比美国差的。中国只是因为人力成本便宜,国内生产服务业问题就是汇率。 </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 我认为,AI以后可能还是有机会,因为AI可以帮助企业降本增效再升一个数量级,这个时候客户就非常愿意付钱。我就用AI赋能的软件,可能比传统软件要在中国更有机会点,就像拼多多一样地给消费者创造极致性价比。然后AI软件同样给企业客户创造极致性价比,这个时候客户很愿意付钱。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 新浪科技:你现在有跟硅谷的团队开AI会议吗?之前有传中国投资人已经不参与会议了?</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 朱啸虎:开会的,但是以前专门有开一个关于AI对中国创新的会,现在我们还是,但更多的是我们和美国人讲,我们在中国的AI应用上有哪些创新。中国现在的一些AI创新,其实要比美国领先的,第一是数据多,第二是很多时候现在AI达不到100%的准确,在很细分领域可能是60%左右,最好可能80%多,剩下的工作基本是需要人工补齐的,但是需要人工补齐这块,中国肯定是有优势的。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> <strong>“年底GPT-5.0达不到预期,英伟达市值就完蛋了”</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 新浪科技:你怎么看英伟达的?他也是AI的底层,现在市值已经全球第一了。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 朱啸虎:就看Scaling Law(规模法则)有没有效果,如果Scaling Law无效了,它的股价就会跌得一塌糊涂。要看到今年底,OpeanAI能不能发布GPT-5.0,如果是10万-20万张GPU堆算力砸下去,还见不到(GPT)智能能力提升,那英伟达他就完蛋了。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 当然,黄教主(黄仁勋)确实很会销售,他搞了一个主权AI,想让每个国家都要去买自己的AI芯片。所以他会创造概念去销售,今年的股价应该是能撑得住的,但是如果到年底GPT-5.0还做不出来,大家怀疑,就开始危险了。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 新浪科技:前两天苹果提出了一个Apple Intelligence,也可以理解为端侧AI,你怎么看这个事情?</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 朱啸虎:苹果的发布会非常有意思,它至少说明两个问题。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 第一,最重要的是用户体验,而不是技术。你看iPad 新增的那个计算器,你说有啥技术?其实没啥技术,但是用户体验特别好。而且苹果重新定义了入口问题,今天它也可以使用OpenAI的GPT了,但他不给GPT导用户,说明苹果的用户信息不给OpenAI,只统一调接口去访问这个服务就行了,很和谐。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 第二,苹果可以随时切掉OpenAI的服务。之前谷歌为进入苹果生态,每年给苹果支付100多亿美金,今天苹果和OpenAI双方是免费的,如果谷歌的Gemini追上来了,然后再给苹果支付100亿美金,iPhone肯定也会用。所以,最终还是入口为王,而且苹果自己也在做大模型,如果一直没有GPT-5.0,苹果大模型性能上来后,可能就用自己的GPT了。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> <strong>“大部分被AI取代的人,是因为上班摸鱼太多了”</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 新浪科技:如果给想进入AI领域的投资者提一些建议,你会说什么?</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 朱啸虎:你能不能给你的用户创造一个数量级以上的价值,让你的用户对这样的产品尖叫“哇”,这样的极致效果。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 新浪科技:还会有这样的产品吗?</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 朱啸虎:很多,你需要聚焦到一个垂直行业,在这个行业里面生根,真正懂你的客户,知道他们要什么东西。而且知道什么事情是今天AI能做的,或者你加20%的人都能够补齐的。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 新浪科技:对个人有什么建议呢?我们正在经历长周期,而且大家对AI的发展也比较焦虑,它什么都能做!</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 朱啸虎:AI肯定不可能100%取代人类,我觉得达到80%已经很了不起了,在很多细分领域,很多大模型还只能达到50%左右。你只要把你工作效率变得很高,你的表现不要比下面一半的人差,就可以了。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 大部分人为什么被取代,完全是因为上班摸鱼太多,没有用智商。</p></body></html>","source":"sina_tech","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>朱啸虎:年底GPT-5达不到预期,英伟达市值就“完蛋了”</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n朱啸虎:年底GPT-5达不到预期,英伟达市值就“完蛋了”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-06-21 15:46 北京时间 <a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2024-06-21/doc-inazntae1257659.shtml><strong>新浪科技</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>文丨周文猛 在中国创投行业,“周期论”一直是被高频提及的话题。 近日,金沙江创投主管合伙人朱啸虎表示,“当前,中国正在进入一个以10年为单位的长周期中,而在以前,周期的单位是2~3年。” 朱啸虎指出,在周期变长的情况下,生成式AI、PC/移动互联网以及平价消费等领域,仍会出现新的机会点。而对于中国企业和中国消费者而言,都要追求性价比,“就像拼多多一样地给消费者创造极致性价比”。 此外,他还...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2024-06-21/doc-inazntae1257659.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d788f727e26434db149309671116a447","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2024-06-21/doc-inazntae1257659.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144695188","content_text":"文丨周文猛 在中国创投行业,“周期论”一直是被高频提及的话题。 近日,金沙江创投主管合伙人朱啸虎表示,“当前,中国正在进入一个以10年为单位的长周期中,而在以前,周期的单位是2~3年。” 朱啸虎指出,在周期变长的情况下,生成式AI、PC/移动互联网以及平价消费等领域,仍会出现新的机会点。而对于中国企业和中国消费者而言,都要追求性价比,“就像拼多多一样地给消费者创造极致性价比”。 此外,他还分享了自己对于AI投资、英伟达的理解。他预判,预计到今年年底,如果OpeanAI的GPT-5.0模型没能发布,或者能力未达到有效提升,英伟达全球第一的市值可能“就完蛋了”。 以下是《WeTalk》栏目整理的与朱啸虎对话要点,在保持原意的基础上略有修改。 “中国现在一些AI创新,要比美国领先” 新浪科技:您不投AI大模型公司,但会投AI应用,现在有开始看项目吗?最近流行一个说法是做To B软件的都不赚钱,软件企业都很惨,但AI投资To B又快于To C,你怎么看? 朱啸虎:第一,中国企业和中国消费者一样,都要追求性价比。我觉得中国最大问题是程序员太多了,全世界3000万,中国有700万,而且中国700万程序员工作特别努力,工作量都是别人的2-3倍以上。 第二,实际上中国软件(29.490, 0.51, 1.76%)企业并不惨,大家就是忽视了汇率。中国的软件行业如果把两三亿人民币的收入,比作两三亿美金的收入,中国软件企业不比美国差的。中国只是因为人力成本便宜,国内生产服务业问题就是汇率。 我认为,AI以后可能还是有机会,因为AI可以帮助企业降本增效再升一个数量级,这个时候客户就非常愿意付钱。我就用AI赋能的软件,可能比传统软件要在中国更有机会点,就像拼多多一样地给消费者创造极致性价比。然后AI软件同样给企业客户创造极致性价比,这个时候客户很愿意付钱。 新浪科技:你现在有跟硅谷的团队开AI会议吗?之前有传中国投资人已经不参与会议了? 朱啸虎:开会的,但是以前专门有开一个关于AI对中国创新的会,现在我们还是,但更多的是我们和美国人讲,我们在中国的AI应用上有哪些创新。中国现在的一些AI创新,其实要比美国领先的,第一是数据多,第二是很多时候现在AI达不到100%的准确,在很细分领域可能是60%左右,最好可能80%多,剩下的工作基本是需要人工补齐的,但是需要人工补齐这块,中国肯定是有优势的。 “年底GPT-5.0达不到预期,英伟达市值就完蛋了” 新浪科技:你怎么看英伟达的?他也是AI的底层,现在市值已经全球第一了。 朱啸虎:就看Scaling Law(规模法则)有没有效果,如果Scaling Law无效了,它的股价就会跌得一塌糊涂。要看到今年底,OpeanAI能不能发布GPT-5.0,如果是10万-20万张GPU堆算力砸下去,还见不到(GPT)智能能力提升,那英伟达他就完蛋了。 当然,黄教主(黄仁勋)确实很会销售,他搞了一个主权AI,想让每个国家都要去买自己的AI芯片。所以他会创造概念去销售,今年的股价应该是能撑得住的,但是如果到年底GPT-5.0还做不出来,大家怀疑,就开始危险了。 新浪科技:前两天苹果提出了一个Apple Intelligence,也可以理解为端侧AI,你怎么看这个事情? 朱啸虎:苹果的发布会非常有意思,它至少说明两个问题。 第一,最重要的是用户体验,而不是技术。你看iPad 新增的那个计算器,你说有啥技术?其实没啥技术,但是用户体验特别好。而且苹果重新定义了入口问题,今天它也可以使用OpenAI的GPT了,但他不给GPT导用户,说明苹果的用户信息不给OpenAI,只统一调接口去访问这个服务就行了,很和谐。 第二,苹果可以随时切掉OpenAI的服务。之前谷歌为进入苹果生态,每年给苹果支付100多亿美金,今天苹果和OpenAI双方是免费的,如果谷歌的Gemini追上来了,然后再给苹果支付100亿美金,iPhone肯定也会用。所以,最终还是入口为王,而且苹果自己也在做大模型,如果一直没有GPT-5.0,苹果大模型性能上来后,可能就用自己的GPT了。 “大部分被AI取代的人,是因为上班摸鱼太多了” 新浪科技:如果给想进入AI领域的投资者提一些建议,你会说什么? 朱啸虎:你能不能给你的用户创造一个数量级以上的价值,让你的用户对这样的产品尖叫“哇”,这样的极致效果。 新浪科技:还会有这样的产品吗? 朱啸虎:很多,你需要聚焦到一个垂直行业,在这个行业里面生根,真正懂你的客户,知道他们要什么东西。而且知道什么事情是今天AI能做的,或者你加20%的人都能够补齐的。 新浪科技:对个人有什么建议呢?我们正在经历长周期,而且大家对AI的发展也比较焦虑,它什么都能做! 朱啸虎:AI肯定不可能100%取代人类,我觉得达到80%已经很了不起了,在很多细分领域,很多大模型还只能达到50%左右。你只要把你工作效率变得很高,你的表现不要比下面一半的人差,就可以了。 大部分人为什么被取代,完全是因为上班摸鱼太多,没有用智商。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1241,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":437111732416872,"gmtCreate":1747729447443,"gmtModify":1747729448634,"author":{"id":"3474643564163766","authorId":"3474643564163766","name":"大飛哥","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7b8ab1bb216c14e1bc7c36b6dde4ac4","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3474643564163766","authorIdStr":"3474643564163766"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03750\">$宁德时代(03750)$</a> 卖早了,少赚700元","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03750\">$宁德时代(03750)$</a> 卖早了,少赚700元","text":"$宁德时代(03750)$ 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无聊啊,费半天劲,目前挣了500.放着吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/425557912875160","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":315,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":423733652751176,"gmtCreate":1744469094304,"gmtModify":1744469097787,"author":{"id":"3474643564163766","authorId":"3474643564163766","name":"大飛哥","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7b8ab1bb216c14e1bc7c36b6dde4ac4","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3474643564163766","authorIdStr":"3474643564163766"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AAPL 20250516 230.0 CALL\">$AAPL 20250516 230.0 CALL$</a> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AAPL 20250516 230.0 CALL\">$AAPL 20250516 230.0 CALL$</a> ","text":"$AAPL 20250516 230.0 CALL$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef1fb346b088d766ec2a40a3c03e9f03","width":"981","height":"1637"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/423733652751176","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":445,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":423660123775848,"gmtCreate":1744451259139,"gmtModify":1744451261282,"author":{"id":"3474643564163766","authorId":"3474643564163766","name":"大飛哥","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7b8ab1bb216c14e1bc7c36b6dde4ac4","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3474643564163766","authorIdStr":"3474643564163766"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"苹果至少230","listText":"苹果至少230","text":"苹果至少230","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/423660123775848","repostId":"2526605266","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2526605266","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1744450470,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2526605266?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-04-12 17:34","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"苹果股价连续反弹,市场在押注iPhone获得关税豁免吗?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2526605266","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"“90%的投资者都相信苹果将获得关税豁免”,毕竟,苹果在特朗普1.0时期就获得过一次豁免。华尔街认为,“美国优先”政策指引下,特朗普可能不会希望伤害像苹果这样的美国标志性企业,特别是在该公司承诺未来四年在美国投资5000亿美元之后。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>“90%的投资者都相信苹果将获得关税豁免”,毕竟,苹果在特朗普1.0时期就获得过一次豁免。华尔街认为,“美国优先”政策指引下,特朗普可能不会希望伤害像苹果这样的美国标志性企业,特别是在该公司承诺未来四年在美国投资5000亿美元之后。</p></blockquote><p>关税豁免预期升温,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>股价反弹。</p><p>特朗普关税大棒落地后,苹果股价经历了一波暴跌,但在过去两天,意外出现了剧烈反弹。<strong>苹果股价自4月9日以来飙升了15%,市值增加4000多亿美元,本周五股价单日上涨4.1%,收于198.15美元。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b0c723c5eb7d81355b7369ebb2ca978\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p><strong>这一反弹源自华尔街分析师和投资者越来越相信苹果将获得关税豁免,这一预期已成为支撑股价的关键因素。</strong></p><p>CFRA Research分析师Angelo Zino表示,苹果获得豁免的可能性已经显著增加:</p><blockquote><p>“按目前情况,<strong>关税影响对苹果来说尤为严重,潜在增加其销售成本约500亿美元。</strong>”</p><p>“我们预计苹果会推迟将任何关税成本转嫁给消费者,直到秋季产品周期,同时如果贸易协议短期内无法实现,我们将苹果获得特殊豁免的概率从20%提高到50%。”</p></blockquote><p>Mizuho Securities交易台分析师Jordan Klein的观点更为乐观,他表示与之交谈的投资者都坚信特朗普将向苹果提供豁免:</p><blockquote><p>“90%的投资者似乎相信苹果将获得关税豁免,毕竟该公司在2018年特朗普执政期间就获得过一次豁免。”</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_1896526236\">美国就业与政治考量支撑豁免可能</h2><p>在当前地缘政治紧张局势下,苹果独特的地位可能成为其获得特殊待遇的关键。</p><p>分析师们指出,<strong>特朗普不会希望伤害像苹果这样的美国标志性企业,</strong>特别是在该公司承诺未来四年在美国制造业和其他国内投资上支出超过5000亿美元之后。</p><p>Jordan Klein强调:</p><blockquote><p><strong>“该公司雇佣了太多人,美国选民过度依赖iPhone,不会接受iPhone售价达到2000美元的情况。”</strong></p></blockquote><p>另一个支持苹果获得豁免的论点是,<strong>特朗普的关税政策可能反而助力了苹果的主要竞争对手——韩国的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SSNLF\">三星电子</a>。</strong>从政治角度看,这种结果显然与特朗普的“美国优先”政策相悖。</p><h2 id=\"id_2252992744\">苹果并非完全依赖豁免,已开始多管齐下应对</h2><p>尽管市场普遍看好苹果获得豁免的前景,但该公司并未将所有希望寄托于此。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师Erik Woodring表示:</p><blockquote><p>“我们不认为苹果将仅仅押注于总统豁免,而且正如我们在跟踪该公司时所了解的,苹果始终保持长期思考。”</p></blockquote><p>苹果近年来一直致力于将其产业链多元化,包括将部分iPhone生产转移到印度。在90天关税缓期内,苹果可能将寻求其印度合作伙伴,以满足美国iPhone需求。</p><p>Woodring估计,为满足美国的iPhone需求,<strong>苹果需要将其印度生产能力提高一倍,尽管这可能需要更长时间才能实现。</strong></p><p>还有观点指出,另一种策略是<strong>通过提供融资计划、增加运营商补贴和提高以旧换新价值</strong>来缓解人为抬高的iPhone价格。</p><p>如果无法获得豁免,苹果可能会采取其他策略减轻关税压力。大摩分析称,苹果可能会取消低端iPhone存储模型,将需求转向利润率更高的iPhone型号。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>苹果股价连续反弹,市场在押注iPhone获得关税豁免吗?</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n苹果股价连续反弹,市场在押注iPhone获得关税豁免吗?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-04-12 17:34 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3745086><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>“90%的投资者都相信苹果将获得关税豁免”,毕竟,苹果在特朗普1.0时期就获得过一次豁免。华尔街认为,“美国优先”政策指引下,特朗普可能不会希望伤害像苹果这样的美国标志性企业,特别是在该公司承诺未来四年在美国投资5000亿美元之后。关税豁免预期升温,苹果股价反弹。特朗普关税大棒落地后,苹果股价经历了一波暴跌,但在过去两天,意外出现了剧烈反弹。苹果股价自4月9日以来飙升了15%,市值增加4000...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3745086\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dd8e37009a141c78b4a4ede34830062","relate_stocks":{"LU0957808578.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"ZU\" (USD) ACC","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","LU2065171402.SGD":"M&G (LUX) GLOBAL MAXIMA \"A\" (SGD) INC","LU1506573853.SGD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL EQUITY \"AA\" (SGD) INC","LU1366192091.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY PLUS \"AM\" (USD) INC","LU2360032135.SGD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL EQUITY ENHANCED INCOME \"A\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU2168564495.EUR":"AZ ALLOCATION - TREND \"AI\" (EUR) ACC","BK4512":"苹果概念","LU2125154778.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL EQUITY ENHANCED INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1989772923.USD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc USD-H","LU2168564065.EUR":"AZ ALLOCATION - TREND \"AAZ\" (EUR) ACC","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" 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(HKD) INC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3745086","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2526605266","content_text":"“90%的投资者都相信苹果将获得关税豁免”,毕竟,苹果在特朗普1.0时期就获得过一次豁免。华尔街认为,“美国优先”政策指引下,特朗普可能不会希望伤害像苹果这样的美国标志性企业,特别是在该公司承诺未来四年在美国投资5000亿美元之后。关税豁免预期升温,苹果股价反弹。特朗普关税大棒落地后,苹果股价经历了一波暴跌,但在过去两天,意外出现了剧烈反弹。苹果股价自4月9日以来飙升了15%,市值增加4000多亿美元,本周五股价单日上涨4.1%,收于198.15美元。这一反弹源自华尔街分析师和投资者越来越相信苹果将获得关税豁免,这一预期已成为支撑股价的关键因素。CFRA Research分析师Angelo Zino表示,苹果获得豁免的可能性已经显著增加:“按目前情况,关税影响对苹果来说尤为严重,潜在增加其销售成本约500亿美元。”“我们预计苹果会推迟将任何关税成本转嫁给消费者,直到秋季产品周期,同时如果贸易协议短期内无法实现,我们将苹果获得特殊豁免的概率从20%提高到50%。”Mizuho Securities交易台分析师Jordan Klein的观点更为乐观,他表示与之交谈的投资者都坚信特朗普将向苹果提供豁免:“90%的投资者似乎相信苹果将获得关税豁免,毕竟该公司在2018年特朗普执政期间就获得过一次豁免。”美国就业与政治考量支撑豁免可能在当前地缘政治紧张局势下,苹果独特的地位可能成为其获得特殊待遇的关键。分析师们指出,特朗普不会希望伤害像苹果这样的美国标志性企业,特别是在该公司承诺未来四年在美国制造业和其他国内投资上支出超过5000亿美元之后。Jordan Klein强调:“该公司雇佣了太多人,美国选民过度依赖iPhone,不会接受iPhone售价达到2000美元的情况。”另一个支持苹果获得豁免的论点是,特朗普的关税政策可能反而助力了苹果的主要竞争对手——韩国的三星电子。从政治角度看,这种结果显然与特朗普的“美国优先”政策相悖。苹果并非完全依赖豁免,已开始多管齐下应对尽管市场普遍看好苹果获得豁免的前景,但该公司并未将所有希望寄托于此。摩根士丹利分析师Erik Woodring表示:“我们不认为苹果将仅仅押注于总统豁免,而且正如我们在跟踪该公司时所了解的,苹果始终保持长期思考。”苹果近年来一直致力于将其产业链多元化,包括将部分iPhone生产转移到印度。在90天关税缓期内,苹果可能将寻求其印度合作伙伴,以满足美国iPhone需求。Woodring估计,为满足美国的iPhone需求,苹果需要将其印度生产能力提高一倍,尽管这可能需要更长时间才能实现。还有观点指出,另一种策略是通过提供融资计划、增加运营商补贴和提高以旧换新价值来缓解人为抬高的iPhone价格。如果无法获得豁免,苹果可能会采取其他策略减轻关税压力。大摩分析称,苹果可能会取消低端iPhone存储模型,将需求转向利润率更高的iPhone型号。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":297,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":410894413377688,"gmtCreate":1741349738657,"gmtModify":1741349740902,"author":{"id":"3474643564163766","authorId":"3474643564163766","name":"大飛哥","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7b8ab1bb216c14e1bc7c36b6dde4ac4","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3474643564163766","authorIdStr":"3474643564163766"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"最看不上雷军","listText":"最看不上雷军","text":"最看不上雷军","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/410894413377688","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":892,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":407374109671648,"gmtCreate":1740475061267,"gmtModify":1740475062625,"author":{"id":"3474643564163766","authorId":"3474643564163766","name":"大飛哥","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7b8ab1bb216c14e1bc7c36b6dde4ac4","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3474643564163766","authorIdStr":"3474643564163766"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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