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小油
2020-12-30
$二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN(TVIXF)$
世界上真的🈶️只跌不涨的东西吗
小油
2020-12-30
$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$
空头都失声了吗
小油
2020-07-15
$二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN(TVIXF)$
是不是只要还有持仓,就随时可以卖出?
小油
2020-03-19
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
抱歉,原内容已删除
小油
2020-03-12
$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$
定投了一年 无视一开始的盈利 仓位加上去 今天终于正收益了 接下去 只要有阴线就会加仓
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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17:12","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"美股暴跌美元却猛涨:多国货币承压 下个焦点是汇率?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2020612444","media":"新浪财经综合","summary":"炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报,权威,专业,及时,全面,助您挖掘潜力主题机会! 原标题:美股暴跌美元却猛涨,10天升值6.7%,人民币跌破7.1,多国货币承压,下个焦点是汇率?\n 来源:证券时报网\n ","content":"<html><body><div>\n<blockquote><p> 炒股就看<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603586\">金麒麟</a>分析师研报,权威,专业,及时,全面,助您挖掘潜力主题机会!</p></blockquote> <p> 原标题:美股暴跌美元却猛涨,10天升值6.7%,人民币跌破7.1,多国货币承压,下个焦点是汇率?</p>\n<p> 来源:证券时报网</p>\n<p> 全球股市动荡之后,下一个焦点或是汇市。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\"> 昨夜美股又经历了一次熔断,但美元指数却扶摇直上持续走强。3月19日,美元指数强势突破101关口,目前已从3月9日的低点反弹近6.7%,10日之内上演V型大反转。</p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/sinakd2020319s/54/w1080h1374/20200319/cdf1-iqyrykv5733604.jpg\"/><span></span></div>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\"> 美国原本股市汇市齐跌的“剧情”为何会分化为股跌汇涨?在多位分析人士看来,这主要是因为美股大跌引发不少基金爆仓需要赎回或追加保证金,导致全市场的美元流动性紧张,美元供求失衡推高了美元价格。因此,如果未来一段时间内全球股市(尤其是美股)继续下跌,美元指数有望持续保持强势,除非美联储进一步加码流动性支持。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\"> 与此同时,美元指数的持续走强,对不少非美货币来说,将会面临着不小的被动贬值压力。人民币汇率在此背景下亦难独善其身,3月19日,离岸人民币对美元汇率一度跌幅扩大至0.4%,跌破7.1关口。</p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/sinakd2020319s/42/w1080h1362/20200319/6570-iqyrykv5733784.jpg\"/><span></span></div>\n<p><strong> 衰退下的强势美元</strong></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\"> 综合不少分析观点看,3月中旬美元指数的大幅走强,直接原因在于金融资产价格大跌引发的美元流动性的紧张,也与欧洲疫情加重、经济再度衰退引发的欧元走贬有关。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\"> <span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01988\">民生银行</a></span><span></span>首席宏观分析师温彬对记者表示,近日美元指数持续走强主要有两方面原因:一是疫情在全球扩散以来,市场认为欧洲因地域大、各国政策协调困难等原因,使得未来欧洲地区的疫情防控形势会比美国更严重,疫情对欧洲经济的冲击会更为显著。市场对欧元的担忧情绪,推升了对美元的避险需求。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\"> 作为美元指数权重占比最高的货币,欧元的走势历来对美元影响重大。通常情况下,欧元走弱时,会助推美元走强。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\"> “尽管欧央行已出台货币宽松政策,但因欧盟各国财政政策独立难协调,面临的经济衰退压力加大,一些经济体可能会出现主权债务危机。欧洲经济风险的加大会短期内会支撑美元走强。”温彬称。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\"> 不过,从引发美元持续走强的直接原因看,流动性是更为重要的因素。李迅雷表示,近十年来,被动投资型股票基金规模迅速扩大,成为推升美股估值的主要力量之一。2019年美国股票基金资产规模达到8.5万亿美元,被动基金资产规模占比51%,已经超过主动型管理基金;但一旦市场转向下跌,被动基金面临的巨量赎回所造成的卖盘压力,会使其所跟踪指数中的中小成份股的成交额无法承接,这也会加剧市场流动性的枯竭。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\"> “当前美元指数的走强直接原因在于美元流动性的紧张,流动性的收缩推高了美元价格。美元流动性的紧张也意味着当前美国金融市场危机由情绪危机的第一阶段迈向了流动性危机的第二阶段。”<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06030\">中信证券</a></span><span></span>研究院副院长明明称,市场恐慌情绪下基金管理机构或需要面对大量的赎回问题,而在这种背景之下基金管理机构纷纷保护自身流动性,也因此将杠杆风险推高,高杠杆机构的爆仓会带来连锁反应,使得本就收紧的美元流动性更加紧张,这也是美元市场流动性的黑洞,形成“衰退性的强势美元”,因此后续美国基金管理机构的杠杆风险问题应当重点关注。</p>\n<p><strong> 新兴市场面临不小贬值压力</strong></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\"> 美元的持续走强,会对新兴市场货币带来不小的被动贬值压力,进而影响跨境资本流动。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\"> 据央视新闻消息,18日,俄罗斯股市和卢布汇率齐跌。此前,为稳定卢布币值,俄央行设置“汇率走廊”,即规定汇率波动的浮动,但18日当天,卢布重挫至1美元兑80.87卢布和1欧元兑88.725卢布,双双触顶“汇率走廊”边界,导致跌停,达到2016年以来的最低水平。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\"> 土耳其里拉周二下滑0.66%,跌至2018年9月里拉出现严重危机以来的最低水平。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\"> 19日,澳元兑美元重挫4.6%,创2002年以来最弱水平。</p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/sinakd2020319s/111/w750h961/20200319/f6b8-iqyrykv5733912.jpg\"/><span></span></div>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\"> 人民币汇率在3月初经历了了快速回升后,近日同样掉头向下。截至记者发稿前,离岸人民币兑美元已跌破7.1关口,日内跌幅近400点;在岸人民币跌幅超500点。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\"> 北京一汇率分析人士对证券时报记者表示,全球金融市场高度联动的当下,美股近日暴跌但A股波幅相对较小,不过,资产价格的联动可能会将下跌压力转至汇率市场。如果美股持续下探,流动性并无改善,那么美元指数会继续保持强势,这对包括人民币在内的新兴市场货币都将形成不小的贬值压力和跨境资本流出压力。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\"> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPGI\">标普全球</a>评级的亚太区首席经济学家Shaun Roache表示,疫情对实体经济冲击成为影响深远的放大器,使得金融环境趋紧。在此情形下,经济衰退或将演化为金融压力。如果持续不散的不确定性促使市场强烈偏好美元,亚洲新兴市场的决策者可能被迫陷入破坏性收紧顺周期政策的境地,最易受资本流出影响的国家依然是印度、印尼和菲律宾。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\"> 明明也表示,美元走势无疑对于人民币汇率有着重要的影响,美元流动性紧张的背景下,人民币汇率面临贬值压力。从北向资金的流向方面,近日北向资金的连续净流出也使人民币汇率承压,而北向资金净流出的原因或在于美元流动性紧张导致境外投资者自身风控体系下的资产减持。对于后续人民币汇率走势而言,我们认为短期影响人民币汇率的核心因素是美元走势,而美元不断升值趋势的缓解需要美元流动性压力的释放,美联储需要推出更多的流动性支持政策。</p>\n<p><strong> 解决流动性紧张 货币宽松要进一步加码</strong></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\"> 短期看,解决当前全球股市汇市剧烈波动最为直接的举措,就是注入更大规模的美元流动性,而这需要美联储宽松政策的进一步加码。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\"> 美国财长姆努钦近日引用前美联储主席格林斯潘的名言称,“不论我们需要做什么,不论美联储需要做什么,不论国会需要做什么,这里一定会有流动性”。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\"> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">瑞银</a>财富管理投资总监办公室(CIO)表示,全球金融市场持续剧烈震荡,刺激了美元的需求,并增加了跟欧元等其他货币的互换成本。尽管美联储已跟5家主要央行达成条件较宽松的掉期协议,但不是所有企业都能够直接向央行借贷,作为中介的商业银行也未必愿意为借款人提供担保,尤其在疫情爆发期间。同时,离岸美元融资市场最近也出现了压力。如果流动性风险持续,可能影响到离岸美元借款人的偿债能力。美联储其实可以在量化宽松的计划下,直接购买个别较长年期的企业债,打通流动性脉络,但这需要国会的批准。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\"> 3月19日,美国财长姆努钦称向美联储主席致信,批准成立货币市场共同基金流动性便利,美国财政部提供100亿美元的信贷保护。这一工具相当于重启2008年金融危机时的商业票据融资便利,根据安排,美联储将向发行企业直接购买商业票据。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\"> 对中国来说,不少分析预期,在中国货币政策边际宽松的趋势下,流动性供给会保持充足,人民币兑美元汇率则会在7附近双向波动。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\"> “尽管短期内北上资金流出增加了人民币下跌压力,但不改外资中长期看好人民币资产的趋势,因此,人民币兑美元汇率有望围绕7上下各2%幅度的波动。”温彬说。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\"> 瑞银证券中国首席经济学家汪涛认为,尽管有经济增长放缓、货币宽松等预期,但人民币兑美元汇率仍有望保持在7左右,其他地区实施货币宽松、中国经常账户顺差扩大等因素都将起到支撑作用。尽管预计中国商品进出口将受重创,但出境游下滑或令2020年服务贸易逆差减少1,500亿美元,且全球大宗商品价格处于低位也将对跨境资金流动保持稳定有所帮助。</p>\n<font><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">新浪</a>声明:新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的,并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作,风险自担。</font>\n<p>责任编辑:陈志杰 </p>\n</div></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股暴跌美元却猛涨:多国货币承压 下个焦点是汇率?</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股暴跌美元却猛涨:多国货币承压 下个焦点是汇率?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-03-19 17:12 北京时间 <a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/zqgd/2020-03-19/doc-iimxxsth0281707.shtml><strong>新浪财经综合</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报,权威,专业,及时,全面,助您挖掘潜力主题机会! 原标题:美股暴跌美元却猛涨,10天升值6.7%,人民币跌破7.1,多国货币承压,下个焦点是汇率?\n 来源:证券时报网\n 全球股市动荡之后,下一个焦点或是汇市。\n 昨夜美股又经历了一次熔断,但美元指数却扶摇直上持续走强。3月19日,美元指数强势突破101关口,目前已从3月9日的低点反弹近6.7%,10日之内上演V型大...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/zqgd/2020-03-19/doc-iimxxsth0281707.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f3d0c168656a3e6eb4245c3c31ff40","relate_stocks":{"SVXY":"0.5倍做空波动率指数短期期货ETF","VIXY":"波动率短期期货指数ETF","TVIX":"二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN","UVXY":"1.5倍做多恐慌指数短期期货ETF"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/zqgd/2020-03-19/doc-iimxxsth0281707.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2020612444","content_text":"炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报,权威,专业,及时,全面,助您挖掘潜力主题机会! 原标题:美股暴跌美元却猛涨,10天升值6.7%,人民币跌破7.1,多国货币承压,下个焦点是汇率?\n 来源:证券时报网\n 全球股市动荡之后,下一个焦点或是汇市。\n 昨夜美股又经历了一次熔断,但美元指数却扶摇直上持续走强。3月19日,美元指数强势突破101关口,目前已从3月9日的低点反弹近6.7%,10日之内上演V型大反转。\n\n 美国原本股市汇市齐跌的“剧情”为何会分化为股跌汇涨?在多位分析人士看来,这主要是因为美股大跌引发不少基金爆仓需要赎回或追加保证金,导致全市场的美元流动性紧张,美元供求失衡推高了美元价格。因此,如果未来一段时间内全球股市(尤其是美股)继续下跌,美元指数有望持续保持强势,除非美联储进一步加码流动性支持。\n 与此同时,美元指数的持续走强,对不少非美货币来说,将会面临着不小的被动贬值压力。人民币汇率在此背景下亦难独善其身,3月19日,离岸人民币对美元汇率一度跌幅扩大至0.4%,跌破7.1关口。\n\n 衰退下的强势美元\n 综合不少分析观点看,3月中旬美元指数的大幅走强,直接原因在于金融资产价格大跌引发的美元流动性的紧张,也与欧洲疫情加重、经济再度衰退引发的欧元走贬有关。\n 民生银行首席宏观分析师温彬对记者表示,近日美元指数持续走强主要有两方面原因:一是疫情在全球扩散以来,市场认为欧洲因地域大、各国政策协调困难等原因,使得未来欧洲地区的疫情防控形势会比美国更严重,疫情对欧洲经济的冲击会更为显著。市场对欧元的担忧情绪,推升了对美元的避险需求。\n 作为美元指数权重占比最高的货币,欧元的走势历来对美元影响重大。通常情况下,欧元走弱时,会助推美元走强。\n “尽管欧央行已出台货币宽松政策,但因欧盟各国财政政策独立难协调,面临的经济衰退压力加大,一些经济体可能会出现主权债务危机。欧洲经济风险的加大会短期内会支撑美元走强。”温彬称。\n 不过,从引发美元持续走强的直接原因看,流动性是更为重要的因素。李迅雷表示,近十年来,被动投资型股票基金规模迅速扩大,成为推升美股估值的主要力量之一。2019年美国股票基金资产规模达到8.5万亿美元,被动基金资产规模占比51%,已经超过主动型管理基金;但一旦市场转向下跌,被动基金面临的巨量赎回所造成的卖盘压力,会使其所跟踪指数中的中小成份股的成交额无法承接,这也会加剧市场流动性的枯竭。\n “当前美元指数的走强直接原因在于美元流动性的紧张,流动性的收缩推高了美元价格。美元流动性的紧张也意味着当前美国金融市场危机由情绪危机的第一阶段迈向了流动性危机的第二阶段。”中信证券研究院副院长明明称,市场恐慌情绪下基金管理机构或需要面对大量的赎回问题,而在这种背景之下基金管理机构纷纷保护自身流动性,也因此将杠杆风险推高,高杠杆机构的爆仓会带来连锁反应,使得本就收紧的美元流动性更加紧张,这也是美元市场流动性的黑洞,形成“衰退性的强势美元”,因此后续美国基金管理机构的杠杆风险问题应当重点关注。\n 新兴市场面临不小贬值压力\n 美元的持续走强,会对新兴市场货币带来不小的被动贬值压力,进而影响跨境资本流动。\n 据央视新闻消息,18日,俄罗斯股市和卢布汇率齐跌。此前,为稳定卢布币值,俄央行设置“汇率走廊”,即规定汇率波动的浮动,但18日当天,卢布重挫至1美元兑80.87卢布和1欧元兑88.725卢布,双双触顶“汇率走廊”边界,导致跌停,达到2016年以来的最低水平。\n 土耳其里拉周二下滑0.66%,跌至2018年9月里拉出现严重危机以来的最低水平。\n 19日,澳元兑美元重挫4.6%,创2002年以来最弱水平。\n\n 人民币汇率在3月初经历了了快速回升后,近日同样掉头向下。截至记者发稿前,离岸人民币兑美元已跌破7.1关口,日内跌幅近400点;在岸人民币跌幅超500点。\n 北京一汇率分析人士对证券时报记者表示,全球金融市场高度联动的当下,美股近日暴跌但A股波幅相对较小,不过,资产价格的联动可能会将下跌压力转至汇率市场。如果美股持续下探,流动性并无改善,那么美元指数会继续保持强势,这对包括人民币在内的新兴市场货币都将形成不小的贬值压力和跨境资本流出压力。\n 标普全球评级的亚太区首席经济学家Shaun Roache表示,疫情对实体经济冲击成为影响深远的放大器,使得金融环境趋紧。在此情形下,经济衰退或将演化为金融压力。如果持续不散的不确定性促使市场强烈偏好美元,亚洲新兴市场的决策者可能被迫陷入破坏性收紧顺周期政策的境地,最易受资本流出影响的国家依然是印度、印尼和菲律宾。\n 明明也表示,美元走势无疑对于人民币汇率有着重要的影响,美元流动性紧张的背景下,人民币汇率面临贬值压力。从北向资金的流向方面,近日北向资金的连续净流出也使人民币汇率承压,而北向资金净流出的原因或在于美元流动性紧张导致境外投资者自身风控体系下的资产减持。对于后续人民币汇率走势而言,我们认为短期影响人民币汇率的核心因素是美元走势,而美元不断升值趋势的缓解需要美元流动性压力的释放,美联储需要推出更多的流动性支持政策。\n 解决流动性紧张 货币宽松要进一步加码\n 短期看,解决当前全球股市汇市剧烈波动最为直接的举措,就是注入更大规模的美元流动性,而这需要美联储宽松政策的进一步加码。\n 美国财长姆努钦近日引用前美联储主席格林斯潘的名言称,“不论我们需要做什么,不论美联储需要做什么,不论国会需要做什么,这里一定会有流动性”。\n 瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室(CIO)表示,全球金融市场持续剧烈震荡,刺激了美元的需求,并增加了跟欧元等其他货币的互换成本。尽管美联储已跟5家主要央行达成条件较宽松的掉期协议,但不是所有企业都能够直接向央行借贷,作为中介的商业银行也未必愿意为借款人提供担保,尤其在疫情爆发期间。同时,离岸美元融资市场最近也出现了压力。如果流动性风险持续,可能影响到离岸美元借款人的偿债能力。美联储其实可以在量化宽松的计划下,直接购买个别较长年期的企业债,打通流动性脉络,但这需要国会的批准。\n 3月19日,美国财长姆努钦称向美联储主席致信,批准成立货币市场共同基金流动性便利,美国财政部提供100亿美元的信贷保护。这一工具相当于重启2008年金融危机时的商业票据融资便利,根据安排,美联储将向发行企业直接购买商业票据。\n 对中国来说,不少分析预期,在中国货币政策边际宽松的趋势下,流动性供给会保持充足,人民币兑美元汇率则会在7附近双向波动。\n “尽管短期内北上资金流出增加了人民币下跌压力,但不改外资中长期看好人民币资产的趋势,因此,人民币兑美元汇率有望围绕7上下各2%幅度的波动。”温彬说。\n 瑞银证券中国首席经济学家汪涛认为,尽管有经济增长放缓、货币宽松等预期,但人民币兑美元汇率仍有望保持在7左右,其他地区实施货币宽松、中国经常账户顺差扩大等因素都将起到支撑作用。尽管预计中国商品进出口将受重创,但出境游下滑或令2020年服务贸易逆差减少1,500亿美元,且全球大宗商品价格处于低位也将对跨境资金流动保持稳定有所帮助。\n新浪声明:新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的,并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作,风险自担。\n责任编辑:陈志杰","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SVXY":0.6,"TVIX":1,"UVXY":0.6,"VIXY":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":520,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}