LogicalWing的个人主页 - 老虎社区

LogicalWing

LogicalWing

商业分析战略分析

IP属地：北京

187关注

54粉丝

4主题

0勋章

09-12

$劲方医药-B(02595)$ 冲

08-23

entp

08-08

投资

07-18

软文？

0元购补贴下的美团，跟淘宝闪购打了个平手

07-15

所以本文在唱多阿里唱空美团？

0元购+自提冲上1.5亿单！美团，不是办法的办法

06-07

建议不太对。很多成本价计算错误，建议优化这个 ai. 我觉得 tigerai 没理解我整体的持仓策略

05-31

美团今年还盈利 100 个多，一路下跌...基本持平了..

04-25

四月掉了不少五一哪儿都不去～

04-17

已经打新，期待有雪王都走势

04-11

Trump的发言

03-21

和时间做朋友

03-15

支持东升西落！中国工业GDP占全球1/3，中概头部科技股严重低估，价值回归指日可待

03-07

稀释现在股东权益吗

美团-W(03690)根据股份计划发行6310.27万股

02-19

$美团-W(03690)$ 社保影响多少盈利？会跌多少？

02-10

$美团-W(03690)$ 从去年国庆达到217高峰以来，美团跌幅居前，加上最近几天反弹，涨幅也远低于其他大厂，是否有望补上有待观察. 不过观察字节，京东的动作，感觉本地生活之间竞争远远未结束，长期有耐心的才有可能胜出.

01-12

Trump 2.0 20好就要来了？中概股🤔何去何从呢？能从低谷爬起来还是汇继续下探呢？拭目以待

2024-12-27

中概头部公司涨翻天

2024-12-27

$英诺赛科(02577)$

2024-11-27

2000？真敢想…

2024-11-27

分析得很深刻

美团新业务减亏带来的利润，可以持续吗？

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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万单。而在上个周六，其神枪手推出主打自提的“0元外卖”。由此可估算出，美团1.5亿单中，0元到店自提单可能占3000-5000万单 —— 日常该板块订单约1000万单，此次骤增的4000万单，恐多为自提。</p><p>在主流社交平台和媒体报道中，很多消费者利用0元购下单的奶茶等饮品，却不取餐，造成无形之间的浪费。有网友指出，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02589\">沪上阿姨</a>上海环球港店出现大量消费者通过美团外卖“0元购”活动下单却未领取饮品的现象。据新京报报道，7月13日，厦门一茶饮店店长回应饮品制作后无人领取只能倒掉一事称，此举系因外卖平台发放0元奶茶券遭遇“爆单”，消费者点单后爽约，店方无奈只能将过夜饮品废弃。</p><p>众所周知，近场零售通过高效履约送达给消费者，即线上即时下单，线下即时履约。美团通过推行的0元购到店自提的模式，订单量冲起来了，但能产生多少复购率呢，所以这部分订单不能算是有效订单。另有分析人士认为，这次美团和淘宝闪购的统计口径是不同的。“美团不仅把自提外卖和0元购这类订单算入总单量，还把一些需要现场核销的到店消费，也统计纳入了即时零售总单里。”这体现出美团对于锁定“即时零售行业市场份额第一”心智的迫切。</p><p>另有研究物流的人士，对比两个平台的订单量和相应骑手成本后，向我表达了自己的困惑：“根据美团公布的最新数据，全国范围内众包高频骑手的平均月收入如今达到了9793元；而据淘宝闪购刚公布的数据，众包高频骑手的月均收入则超过了12500元。众包高频骑手的收入直接反应平台真实订单量。美团的1.5亿单和淘宝闪购的8000万单，前者几乎是后者两倍，但美团骑手平均月收入却低了近3000元。根据最近各方市场调研以及骑手在社交平台上的反馈显示，在各家平台的骑手单均收入和补贴整体趋于博弈均衡的背景下，这样的差异并不合逻辑。”</p><p>由此可见，美团持续追高的订单量并没有为骑手们带来月均收入的同步提升。所以订单量“含水分”足。推测“美团目前在闪购方面真正有效的订单量数据估计跟淘宝闪购的订单量差不太多。”</p><p>美团1.5亿订单是否存在水分？</p><p>首先，美团订单品类结构单一，集中于奶茶、咖啡等高频低客单品类，比如蜜雪冰城、塔斯汀、华莱士、正新鸡排增速位居前列。在补贴刺激下，出现了“一人日囤20杯奶茶”的非理性消费；而淘宝闪购的8000万单中，非餐饮订单占比16.5%（超1300万单），涵盖酒类、3C数码、母婴等品类，且非餐订单增速超100%。这反映美团订单可能依赖补贴驱动的“虚假繁荣”，而淘宝闪购的多元品类结构更贴近真实消费需求。</p><p>美团“神抢手”项目负责人也表示，“神抢手”订单量超5000万单，其中礼赠量突破千万单，成为美团订单成交重要通道。此类订单依赖微信社交裂变（如好友赠券），但实际也可能存在较多水分。因为有的用户会为获取优惠券而“假赠礼”，部分礼赠订单未被真实兑换。比如，有消费者反馈，为凑满减门槛向10名好友发送奶茶券，最终仅3人实际核销。而且有些黑产团伙会利用脚本批量注册账号，自动完成“领券-赠礼-作废”循环，制造虚假订单增量。</p><p><img src=\"https://img.36krcdn.com/hsossms/20250717/v2_4d7c7d77490844389f1ea5cc24444227@5352216_oswg114495oswg1080oswg809_img_000?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/interlace,1\" width=\"1080\"/></p><p>在综合考虑剔除了0元购和自提、验证骑手月均收入、品类单一、虚假礼赠量的背景下，美团目前在即时零售方面真正有效的订单量数据，估计跟淘宝闪购的订单量差不太多。</p><p>在美团和淘宝闪购的订单数字背后，其实还正在发生一场看不见的较量。</p><p>淘宝布局闪购业态，实质是利用庞大的用户生态与本地业务协同优势，将商品消费延伸至本地服务，意图构建覆盖全品类、多元化消费场景的“大消费平台”，通过“电商+服务”的双核驱动实现平台转型。依托饿了么、飞猪等资源的战略重组与500亿真金白银的补贴，淘宝闪购上线后日订单量迅速跃升至8000万以上，非餐饮订单超1300万，日活跃用户突破2亿，强势占据近场消费市场60%的增量份额。这不仅验证了该模式巨大的商业价值，更强化了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里</a>构建全域消费生态的决心，其用户覆盖与生态厚度为其平台构筑了竞争壁垒。</p><p>面对淘宝闪购的攻势，美团近期连续发起“0元购”促销，根本驱动在于：其即时零售核心阵地正遭受严重冲击。守护多年建立的基本盘，成为美团必须“不惜一切代价打赢的战争”。“0元购”以近乎免费的商品，尤其聚焦奶茶咖啡等高热度品类，短期迅速催生用户冲动消费与订单激增，意在稳流量、固习惯、提想象空间。</p><p>然而，这种依赖高额补贴的激进攻势潜藏多重隐忧：</p><p>其一，透支平台发展未来。“0元购”以价格为核心竞争手段，无形中挤压美团的战略带宽，使其难以协同布局如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里</a>般丰富的多业态服务场景与生态协同效应，错失近场消费多元化带来的深层变现机遇。我和多位业内人士沟通后普遍觉得：0元购带来的短暂数据高潮使得美团忽略了近场消费潜在的大好机会。</p><p>其二，数据繁荣根基不牢。“非理性爆单”现象引发商品大量浪费——不少消费者点单后爽约，商家被迫丢弃无人领取的饮品。与此同时，商家利润摊薄、骑手配送压力剧增，服务质量与可持续性面临严峻拷问。“卷”价格无赢家，“卷”创新才有未来。</p><p><img src=\"https://img.36krcdn.com/hsossms/20250717/v2_d251ab6196df49268c056bf4045ff8b5@5352216_oswg59784oswg499oswg627_img_000?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/interlace,1\" width=\"499\"/></p><p>其三，核心价值链损伤。0元购一旦取消，这种临时构建的以低价维系的用户与商户关系极易瓦解。平台、商家、骑手、消费者的关系能否在常态下形成持续互惠的价值链条，前景存疑。</p><p>综上，我觉得美团有点操之过急。它需要超越以价格厮杀巩固数据的焦虑，回归价值创造的本源——深入协同骑手、多业态商家与消费者需求，构建具备内生韧性的服务生态链。只有通过效率提升、体验优化、模式创新等深层“内功”修炼，才能真正肩负引领近场消费业态健康升级的使命，推动行业从补贴驱动的数据迷途转向可持续的高质量发展轨道。</p><p>一时的补贴喧嚣终归会沉寂，唯有构筑坚实价值的平台能行稳致远。</p></body></html>","source":"lanjinger_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n0元购补贴下的美团，跟淘宝闪购打了个平手\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-07-18 00:31 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.lanjinger.com/d/1752729215194887472><strong>蓝鲸财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>文｜独孤依风近场消费市场竞争激烈，实体商家热情高涨，平台订单量亦日趋走高。美团在7月12号晚宣布订单量达到1.5亿。两天后，淘宝闪购也公布了战果，日订单量突破8000万创下新高（不含自提及0元购）。两者都创了新高，但淘宝闪购着重提了不含自提和0元购。这其实是相对于美团来讲的。毕竟美团在最近两周借助0元购收获了不少订单，尤其是借助一些低价高频消费的商品，比如奶茶、咖啡等。作为电商行业观察者，我对美团...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.lanjinger.com/d/1752729215194887472\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"89988":"阿里巴巴-WR","LU1642822792.SGD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) ASIAN CONTRARIAN EQUITY \"A\" (SGD) ACC","MPNGY":"美团ADR","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","LU0531971595.HKD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU1794554557.SGD":"Allianz All China Equity AT Acc H2-SGD","LU1201861165.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates Global Equity PA SGD","LU1568876335.HKD":"ALLIANZ CHINA MULTI INCOME PLUS \"AMG\" (HKD) INC","03690":"美团-W","LU0143863784.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES\"DU\" (USD) 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\"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU0181495838.USD":"施罗德新兴亚洲A Acc","LU0890818403.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Emerging Markets Dividend A (mth) SGD-H"},"source_url":"https://www.lanjinger.com/d/1752729215194887472","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2552433132","content_text":"文｜独孤依风近场消费市场竞争激烈，实体商家热情高涨，平台订单量亦日趋走高。美团在7月12号晚宣布订单量达到1.5亿。两天后，淘宝闪购也公布了战果，日订单量突破8000万创下新高（不含自提及0元购）。两者都创了新高，但淘宝闪购着重提了不含自提和0元购。这其实是相对于美团来讲的。毕竟美团在最近两周借助0元购收获了不少订单，尤其是借助一些低价高频消费的商品，比如奶茶、咖啡等。作为电商行业观察者，我对美团1.5亿日订单量持有怀疑态度，可以从美团的运营、骑手收入等多个方面分析：美团的对外公开数据显示，这1.5亿单中，主打优惠活动的神枪手板块占5000万单，拼好饭板块占 3500 万单。而在上个周六，其神枪手推出主打自提的“0元外卖”。由此可估算出，美团1.5亿单中，0元到店自提单可能占3000-5000万单 —— 日常该板块订单约1000万单，此次骤增的4000万单，恐多为自提。在主流社交平台和媒体报道中，很多消费者利用0元购下单的奶茶等饮品，却不取餐，造成无形之间的浪费。有网友指出，沪上阿姨上海环球港店出现大量消费者通过美团外卖“0元购”活动下单却未领取饮品的现象。据新京报报道，7月13日，厦门一茶饮店店长回应饮品制作后无人领取只能倒掉一事称，此举系因外卖平台发放0元奶茶券遭遇“爆单”，消费者点单后爽约，店方无奈只能将过夜饮品废弃。众所周知，近场零售通过高效履约送达给消费者，即线上即时下单，线下即时履约。美团通过推行的0元购到店自提的模式，订单量冲起来了，但能产生多少复购率呢，所以这部分订单不能算是有效订单。另有分析人士认为，这次美团和淘宝闪购的统计口径是不同的。“美团不仅把自提外卖和0元购这类订单算入总单量，还把一些需要现场核销的到店消费，也统计纳入了即时零售总单里。”这体现出美团对于锁定“即时零售行业市场份额第一”心智的迫切。另有研究物流的人士，对比两个平台的订单量和相应骑手成本后，向我表达了自己的困惑：“根据美团公布的最新数据，全国范围内众包高频骑手的平均月收入如今达到了9793元；而据淘宝闪购刚公布的数据，众包高频骑手的月均收入则超过了12500元。众包高频骑手的收入直接反应平台真实订单量。美团的1.5亿单和淘宝闪购的8000万单，前者几乎是后者两倍，但美团骑手平均月收入却低了近3000元。根据最近各方市场调研以及骑手在社交平台上的反馈显示，在各家平台的骑手单均收入和补贴整体趋于博弈均衡的背景下，这样的差异并不合逻辑。”由此可见，美团持续追高的订单量并没有为骑手们带来月均收入的同步提升。所以订单量“含水分”足。推测“美团目前在闪购方面真正有效的订单量数据估计跟淘宝闪购的订单量差不太多。”美团1.5亿订单是否存在水分？首先，美团订单品类结构单一，集中于奶茶、咖啡等高频低客单品类，比如蜜雪冰城、塔斯汀、华莱士、正新鸡排增速位居前列。在补贴刺激下，出现了“一人日囤20杯奶茶”的非理性消费；而淘宝闪购的8000万单中，非餐饮订单占比16.5%（超1300万单），涵盖酒类、3C数码、母婴等品类，且非餐订单增速超100%。这反映美团订单可能依赖补贴驱动的“虚假繁荣”，而淘宝闪购的多元品类结构更贴近真实消费需求。美团“神抢手”项目负责人也表示，“神抢手”订单量超5000万单，其中礼赠量突破千万单，成为美团订单成交重要通道。此类订单依赖微信社交裂变（如好友赠券），但实际也可能存在较多水分。因为有的用户会为获取优惠券而“假赠礼”，部分礼赠订单未被真实兑换。比如，有消费者反馈，为凑满减门槛向10名好友发送奶茶券，最终仅3人实际核销。而且有些黑产团伙会利用脚本批量注册账号，自动完成“领券-赠礼-作废”循环，制造虚假订单增量。在综合考虑剔除了0元购和自提、验证骑手月均收入、品类单一、虚假礼赠量的背景下，美团目前在即时零售方面真正有效的订单量数据，估计跟淘宝闪购的订单量差不太多。在美团和淘宝闪购的订单数字背后，其实还正在发生一场看不见的较量。淘宝布局闪购业态，实质是利用庞大的用户生态与本地业务协同优势，将商品消费延伸至本地服务，意图构建覆盖全品类、多元化消费场景的“大消费平台”，通过“电商+服务”的双核驱动实现平台转型。依托饿了么、飞猪等资源的战略重组与500亿真金白银的补贴，淘宝闪购上线后日订单量迅速跃升至8000万以上，非餐饮订单超1300万，日活跃用户突破2亿，强势占据近场消费市场60%的增量份额。这不仅验证了该模式巨大的商业价值，更强化了阿里构建全域消费生态的决心，其用户覆盖与生态厚度为其平台构筑了竞争壁垒。面对淘宝闪购的攻势，美团近期连续发起“0元购”促销，根本驱动在于：其即时零售核心阵地正遭受严重冲击。守护多年建立的基本盘，成为美团必须“不惜一切代价打赢的战争”。“0元购”以近乎免费的商品，尤其聚焦奶茶咖啡等高热度品类，短期迅速催生用户冲动消费与订单激增，意在稳流量、固习惯、提想象空间。然而，这种依赖高额补贴的激进攻势潜藏多重隐忧：其一，透支平台发展未来。“0元购”以价格为核心竞争手段，无形中挤压美团的战略带宽，使其难以协同布局如阿里般丰富的多业态服务场景与生态协同效应，错失近场消费多元化带来的深层变现机遇。我和多位业内人士沟通后普遍觉得：0元购带来的短暂数据高潮使得美团忽略了近场消费潜在的大好机会。其二，数据繁荣根基不牢。“非理性爆单”现象引发商品大量浪费——不少消费者点单后爽约，商家被迫丢弃无人领取的饮品。与此同时，商家利润摊薄、骑手配送压力剧增，服务质量与可持续性面临严峻拷问。“卷”价格无赢家，“卷”创新才有未来。其三，核心价值链损伤。0元购一旦取消，这种临时构建的以低价维系的用户与商户关系极易瓦解。平台、商家、骑手、消费者的关系能否在常态下形成持续互惠的价值链条，前景存疑。综上，我觉得美团有点操之过急。它需要超越以价格厮杀巩固数据的焦虑，回归价值创造的本源——深入协同骑手、多业态商家与消费者需求，构建具备内生韧性的服务生态链。只有通过效率提升、体验优化、模式创新等深层“内功”修炼，才能真正肩负引领近场消费业态健康升级的使命，推动行业从补贴驱动的数据迷途转向可持续的高质量发展轨道。一时的补贴喧嚣终归会沉寂，唯有构筑坚实价值的平台能行稳致远。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"89988":0.6,"03690":1,"ALBmain":0.6,"METmain":0.6,"HBBD.SI":0.6,"HMTD.SI":0.6,"MPNGY":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":435,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":456698178298640,"gmtCreate":1752535738290,"gmtModify":1752535740104,"author":{"id":"3494314295033535","authorId":"3494314295033535","name":"LogicalWing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bf4a2a2a9c706853c6e44d3e47098e5","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494314295033535","authorIdStr":"3494314295033535"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"所以本文在唱多阿里 唱空美团？","listText":"所以本文在唱多阿里 唱空美团？","text":"所以本文在唱多阿里 唱空美团？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/456698178298640","repostId":"2551597444","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2551597444","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1752474374,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2551597444?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-07-14 14:26","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"0元购+自提冲上1.5亿单！美团，不是办法的办法","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2551597444","media":"侃见财经","summary":"截至7月12日23点36分，美团即时零售订单量再创新高，达1.5亿。“0元购”首先已经不是正常的商业模式，“自提”订单不占用骑手运力，实际已不是外卖。美团烧出的1.5亿单中，超过一半都是低价值的无效订单。不是办法的办法其实，从新一轮外卖大战的局势来看，美团显然是被围攻的应战者。由此可见，美团的参战，更多的是一种为生存而战的被动防御。基于此，报告对美团的长期盈利能力进行了下调，并将目标股价从160港元下调至150港元。","content":"<html><body><article><p>7月12日，外卖、即时零售战火重燃。</p><p>大量商家被外卖订单的洪流淹没，全国许多城市的茶饮咖啡门店集体爆单，部分饮品品牌的总部不得不为门店开通“紧急调货通道”，甚至有门店因单量过大，无奈临时关闭外卖业务。</p><p>与此同时，上千万骑手运力也临近被拉爆的极限，一位骑手用时最久的一单耗时近3个小时。</p><p>一位<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPNGY\">美团</a>骑手说，平日高峰期单均配送费不到5元，但在周六当天，他每单至少能拿到10块钱，一天收入肯定超过1000元。</p><img src=\"https://inews.gtimg.com/news_bt/Ot0VTHOhpr-iX1wLMzpBN2lytqScKY7nmetd6cBwXf518AA/0\"/><p>周六下午，有网友在社交平台上晒出自己的“战绩”：今天点了20单外卖，共消费9元，其中17单“0元购”。</p><p>这场没有硝烟的“外卖大战”过后，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">美团</a>发布了最新战报，没有任何意外，再度创出历史最高单量。</p><p>截至7月12日23点36分，美团即时零售订单量再创新高，达1.5亿。</p><p>美团在战报中还详细披露了订单的构成，其中，神抢手单量超5000万单，拼好饭单量超3500万单，蜜雪冰城、塔斯汀、华莱士、正新鸡排增速位居前列。</p><p>不过，5000万的神抢手订单，有效单量可能屈指可数。周六当天，只要打开美团外卖，系统便会立即弹出“0元外卖已到账”的提示，点击领券后，用户便在“神枪手”页面中收到瑞幸咖啡、蜜雪冰城、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01364\">古茗</a>等商家的0元饮品兑换券。</p><p>不少用户也在社交平台发帖表示，神抢手绝大多数是“0元购+自提”模式。“0元购”首先已经不是正常的商业模式，“自提”订单不占用骑手运力，实际已不是外卖。</p><p>也就是说，超5000万单的神枪手订单中，羊毛党占据了绝大部分比例。美团烧出的1.5亿单中，超过一半都是低价值的无效订单。</p><p>对比之下，淘宝闪购发布的战报显示，日订单量已突破8000万，再创新高，且战报强调，不包含0元单和自提这种“刷单”性质的低质量订单。</p><p>不是办法的办法</p><p>其实，从新一轮外卖大战的局势来看，美团显然是被围攻的应战者。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>率先发起新一轮外卖大战的进攻号角，京东的出招可谓快准狠：给商家免佣、给骑手缴五险一金、创始人刘强东亲自上阵送餐、钱补贴消费者……</p><p>随后，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>迅速跟进，推出了“淘宝闪购”，迅速进入战时状态。</p><p>因此，美团的选择，似乎更多是一种防御性的“不得不”。</p><p>作为外卖赛道的一号玩家，美团的困境在于，它必须不惜一切代价地捍卫自己的核心领地和市场份额，才能保住核心利润。</p><p>这也不难理解，为何在淘宝闪购提前放出“超级星期六”的消息后，美团便紧急出手，疯狂撒钱“0元购”，推出恐慌性补贴策略。</p><p>而反观京东，则是用“16元小龙虾补贴”象征性地探底，更多的是一种试探性的策略，并没有耗费过多子弹。</p><p>因此，有评论称，近一段时间内，美团已经把阻止淘宝闪购冲单当成了头等大事。</p><p>上上周1.2亿单，上周1.5亿单，那么这周，下周又该如何应对？</p><p>这不是完全跟着淘宝闪购的节奏走吗？</p><p>如果淘宝闪购突然宣布“疯狂星期四”计划，那美团是不是需要一周发两次战报，证明自己？</p><p>因此，在当前的战局形势下，淘宝闪购短期只需要一次漂亮的战报，那就可以证明，美团没有阻止淘宝闪购冲单。</p><p>面对两个拥有巨大资本和流量的对手的夹击，美团的任何示弱都可能是致命的。</p><p>美团预计，其核心本地商业板块在今年二季度的营收增长将减速，利润将比去年同期减少，这正是它为防御所付出的代价。</p><p>由此可见，美团的参战，更多的是一种为生存而战的被动防御。</p><p>危险的信号</p><p>通过复盘目前的外卖大战与十年前的千团大战，可以发现，美团可能在重蹈对手的覆辙。</p><p>在十年前的千团大战中，美团的制胜的三板斧分别为：</p><p>1、农村包围城市（放弃北上广广告战，主攻二、三线城市）；</p><p>2、精准狙击供给端（补贴只给独家餐饮，不疯狂撒钱追求订单量）；</p><p>3、高效率的运营（1000个管理节点极致压缩成本）。</p><p>反观当前正在进行的外卖大战，美团似乎乱了阵脚：为压制淘宝闪购的传闻，盲目发放全品类免费券，连骑手都收到“顾客赠送”的奶茶订单。</p><p>外卖烧钱大战的本质是资本绞肉机，本轮参战各方的财务实力较以往更强，现金储备更充裕、现金流状况更优，这意味着，价格战持续时间可能更长，最终比拼的是谁家的家底更厚。</p><p>从经营数据来看，阿里去年的<span>净利润</span>1575亿，是美团（438亿）的3.6倍，京东的利润则是478亿。</p><p>从账面的现金储备来看，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里巴巴</a>拥有1893亿人民币，美团为1150亿，京东集团则为1061亿。</p><p>目前来看，烧钱最激进的是美团，淘宝闪购则主要是造势为主，京东在618之后已经偃旗息鼓，象征性地维持着京东外卖的声量。</p><p>面对来势汹汹的烧钱大战，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>在最新的报告中表示，下调对美团长期盈利能力的预测，将长期食品配送GTV利润率从3%+降至2.4%，UE从1.5元降至1.15元，即时购物长期GTV利润率从2%降至1.5%。</p><p>对于2025年全年，摩根士丹利预测，美团核心本地商业（CLC）收入为2760亿元，同比增长10%，<span>营业利润</span>为300亿元，同比下降43%。</p><p>摩根士丹利认为，在即时零售领域，预计市场参与者增加将扩大市场总规模（TAM），但市场份额将分散在多个参与者之间，美团将不再是唯一的主导者。</p><p>基于此，报告对美团的长期盈利能力进行了下调，并将目标股价从160港元下调至150港元。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>0元购+自提冲上1.5亿单！美团，不是办法的办法</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n0元购+自提冲上1.5亿单！美团，不是办法的办法\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-07-14 14:26 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250714142821a6a7f8cb&s=b><strong>侃见财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>7月12日，外卖、即时零售战火重燃。大量商家被外卖订单的洪流淹没，全国许多城市的茶饮咖啡门店集体爆单，部分饮品品牌的总部不得不为门店开通“紧急调货通道”，甚至有门店因单量过大，无奈临时关闭外卖业务。与此同时，上千万骑手运力也临近被拉爆的极限，一位骑手用时最久的一单耗时近3个小时。一位美团骑手说，平日高峰期单均配送费不到5元，但在周六当天，他每单至少能拿到10块钱，一天收入肯定超过1000元。周六...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250714142821a6a7f8cb&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"83690":"美团-WR","BK4209":"餐馆","MPNGY":"美团ADR","03690":"美团-W","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250714142821a6a7f8cb&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2551597444","content_text":"7月12日，外卖、即时零售战火重燃。大量商家被外卖订单的洪流淹没，全国许多城市的茶饮咖啡门店集体爆单，部分饮品品牌的总部不得不为门店开通“紧急调货通道”，甚至有门店因单量过大，无奈临时关闭外卖业务。与此同时，上千万骑手运力也临近被拉爆的极限，一位骑手用时最久的一单耗时近3个小时。一位美团骑手说，平日高峰期单均配送费不到5元，但在周六当天，他每单至少能拿到10块钱，一天收入肯定超过1000元。周六下午，有网友在社交平台上晒出自己的“战绩”：今天点了20单外卖，共消费9元，其中17单“0元购”。这场没有硝烟的“外卖大战”过后，美团发布了最新战报，没有任何意外，再度创出历史最高单量。截至7月12日23点36分，美团即时零售订单量再创新高，达1.5亿。美团在战报中还详细披露了订单的构成，其中，神抢手单量超5000万单，拼好饭单量超3500万单，蜜雪冰城、塔斯汀、华莱士、正新鸡排增速位居前列。不过，5000万的神抢手订单，有效单量可能屈指可数。周六当天，只要打开美团外卖，系统便会立即弹出“0元外卖已到账”的提示，点击领券后，用户便在“神枪手”页面中收到瑞幸咖啡、蜜雪冰城、古茗等商家的0元饮品兑换券。不少用户也在社交平台发帖表示，神抢手绝大多数是“0元购+自提”模式。“0元购”首先已经不是正常的商业模式，“自提”订单不占用骑手运力，实际已不是外卖。也就是说，超5000万单的神枪手订单中，羊毛党占据了绝大部分比例。美团烧出的1.5亿单中，超过一半都是低价值的无效订单。对比之下，淘宝闪购发布的战报显示，日订单量已突破8000万，再创新高，且战报强调，不包含0元单和自提这种“刷单”性质的低质量订单。不是办法的办法其实，从新一轮外卖大战的局势来看，美团显然是被围攻的应战者。京东率先发起新一轮外卖大战的进攻号角，京东的出招可谓快准狠：给商家免佣、给骑手缴五险一金、创始人刘强东亲自上阵送餐、钱补贴消费者……随后，阿里巴巴迅速跟进，推出了“淘宝闪购”，迅速进入战时状态。因此，美团的选择，似乎更多是一种防御性的“不得不”。作为外卖赛道的一号玩家，美团的困境在于，它必须不惜一切代价地捍卫自己的核心领地和市场份额，才能保住核心利润。这也不难理解，为何在淘宝闪购提前放出“超级星期六”的消息后，美团便紧急出手，疯狂撒钱“0元购”，推出恐慌性补贴策略。而反观京东，则是用“16元小龙虾补贴”象征性地探底，更多的是一种试探性的策略，并没有耗费过多子弹。因此，有评论称，近一段时间内，美团已经把阻止淘宝闪购冲单当成了头等大事。上上周1.2亿单，上周1.5亿单，那么这周，下周又该如何应对？这不是完全跟着淘宝闪购的节奏走吗？如果淘宝闪购突然宣布“疯狂星期四”计划，那美团是不是需要一周发两次战报，证明自己？因此，在当前的战局形势下，淘宝闪购短期只需要一次漂亮的战报，那就可以证明，美团没有阻止淘宝闪购冲单。面对两个拥有巨大资本和流量的对手的夹击，美团的任何示弱都可能是致命的。美团预计，其核心本地商业板块在今年二季度的营收增长将减速，利润将比去年同期减少，这正是它为防御所付出的代价。由此可见，美团的参战，更多的是一种为生存而战的被动防御。危险的信号通过复盘目前的外卖大战与十年前的千团大战，可以发现，美团可能在重蹈对手的覆辙。在十年前的千团大战中，美团的制胜的三板斧分别为：1、农村包围城市（放弃北上广广告战，主攻二、三线城市）；2、精准狙击供给端（补贴只给独家餐饮，不疯狂撒钱追求订单量）；3、高效率的运营（1000个管理节点极致压缩成本）。反观当前正在进行的外卖大战，美团似乎乱了阵脚：为压制淘宝闪购的传闻，盲目发放全品类免费券，连骑手都收到“顾客赠送”的奶茶订单。外卖烧钱大战的本质是资本绞肉机，本轮参战各方的财务实力较以往更强，现金储备更充裕、现金流状况更优，这意味着，价格战持续时间可能更长，最终比拼的是谁家的家底更厚。从经营数据来看，阿里去年的净利润1575亿，是美团（438亿）的3.6倍，京东的利润则是478亿。从账面的现金储备来看，阿里巴巴拥有1893亿人民币，美团为1150亿，京东集团则为1061亿。目前来看，烧钱最激进的是美团，淘宝闪购则主要是造势为主，京东在618之后已经偃旗息鼓，象征性地维持着京东外卖的声量。面对来势汹汹的烧钱大战，摩根士丹利在最新的报告中表示，下调对美团长期盈利能力的预测，将长期食品配送GTV利润率从3%+降至2.4%，UE从1.5元降至1.15元，即时购物长期GTV利润率从2%降至1.5%。对于2025年全年，摩根士丹利预测，美团核心本地商业（CLC）收入为2760亿元，同比增长10%，营业利润为300亿元，同比下降43%。摩根士丹利认为，在即时零售领域，预计市场参与者增加将扩大市场总规模（TAM），但市场份额将分散在多个参与者之间，美团将不再是唯一的主导者。基于此，报告对美团的长期盈利能力进行了下调，并将目标股价从160港元下调至150港元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"83690":0.9,"03690":0.9,"MPNGY":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":454,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":443437106524496,"gmtCreate":1749283732622,"gmtModify":1749283734054,"author":{"id":"3494314295033535","authorId":"3494314295033535","name":"LogicalWing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bf4a2a2a9c706853c6e44d3e47098e5","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494314295033535","authorIdStr":"3494314295033535"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"建议不太对。很多成本价计算错误，建议优化这个 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20:44","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"美团-W(03690)根据股份计划发行6310.27万股","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2517444482","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP讯，美团-W(03690)发布公告，于2025年3月6日-3月7日根据股份计划发行合计6310.27万股。","content":"<html><body><p>智通财经APP讯，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">美团-W</a>(03690)发布公告，于2025年3月6日-3月7日根据股份计划发行合计6310.27万股。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美团-W(03690)根据股份计划发行6310.27万股</title>\n<style 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Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0417516902.SGD":"Allianz China Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU0128522157.USD":"TEMPLETON ASIAN GROWTH \"A\" ACC","LU0348825331.USD":"ALLIANZ CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0320764599.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton China A Acc SGD","IE00B0JY6N72.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL EMERGING MARKETS FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2097828631.EUR":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A\" (EUR) ACC","LU1794554557.SGD":"Allianz All China Equity AT Acc H2-SGD","MPNGY":"美团ADR","LU1102505929.USD":"FIDELITY SUSTAINABLE EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2039709279.SGD":"MANULIFE GF DRAGON GROWTH \"AA\" (SGDHDG) INC","03690":"美团-W","LU0165289439.USD":"HSBC GIF ASIA EX JAPAN EQUITY \"AC\" ACC","IE00B5MMRT66.SGD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0132412106.USD":"abrdn SICAV I - EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0326950275.SGD":"Schroder ISF China Opportunities A Acc 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21-24年，即配单均利润是0.32元、0.82元、1.05元、1.28元，没有这事，25年可能会在1.3-1.4元之间，现在看会在1.2-1.3元之间（对应即配的利润下调20亿左右，因为单量的增加，即配利润的绝对值同比还是会增加一些，但不会多，原先拍50亿左右增量，现在可能只有30亿左右）","text":"【搬运了其他人观点】总成本大概会增加单均0.3-0.5元（看下来是靠近0.3元），公司单均成本会增加0.1-0.2元（今年大概影响0.1元左右）：第一步是会稍微降低一些补贴（消费者承担），第二步是平台、代理商、骑手共同承担剩下的（商家不会） 21-24年，即配单均利润是0.32元、0.82元、1.05元、1.28元，没有这事，25年可能会在1.3-1.4元之间，现在看会在1.2-1.3元之间（对应即配的利润下调20亿左右，因为单量的增加，即配利润的绝对值同比还是会增加一些，但不会多，原先拍50亿左右增量，现在可能只有30亿左右）","html":"【搬运了其他人观点】总成本大概会增加单均0.3-0.5元（看下来是靠近0.3元），公司单均成本会增加0.1-0.2元（今年大概影响0.1元左右）：第一步是会稍微降低一些补贴（消费者承担），第二步是平台、代理商、骑手共同承担剩下的（商家不会） 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不过观察字节，京东的动作，感觉本地生活之间竞争远远未结束，长期有耐心的才有可能胜出.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/402112509469296","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1310,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":391718302380328,"gmtCreate":1736666787351,"gmtModify":1736666789818,"author":{"id":"3494314295033535","authorId":"3494314295033535","name":"LogicalWing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bf4a2a2a9c706853c6e44d3e47098e5","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494314295033535","authorIdStr":"3494314295033535"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Trump 2.0 20好就要来了？中概股🤔何去何从呢？能从低谷爬起来还是汇继续下探呢？拭目以待","listText":"Trump 2.0 20好就要来了？中概股🤔何去何从呢？能从低谷爬起来还是汇继续下探呢？拭目以待","text":"Trump 2.0 20好就要来了？中概股🤔何去何从呢？能从低谷爬起来还是汇继续下探呢？拭目以待","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/391718302380328","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":700,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":386126185464216,"gmtCreate":1735296766503,"gmtModify":1735296768579,"author":{"id":"3494314295033535","authorId":"3494314295033535","name":"LogicalWing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bf4a2a2a9c706853c6e44d3e47098e5","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494314295033535","authorIdStr":"3494314295033535"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"中概头部公司涨翻天","listText":"中概头部公司涨翻天","text":"中概头部公司涨翻天","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/386126185464216","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1189,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":386087397236960,"gmtCreate":1735287238856,"gmtModify":1735287241965,"author":{"id":"3494314295033535","authorId":"3494314295033535","name":"LogicalWing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bf4a2a2a9c706853c6e44d3e47098e5","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494314295033535","authorIdStr":"3494314295033535"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02577\">$英诺赛科(02577)$</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02577\">$英诺赛科(02577)$</a>&nbsp;","text":"$英诺赛科(02577)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4cf7951b8211bafedf0696b43e057a","width":"825","height":"1242"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/386087397236960","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":930,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375494288994760,"gmtCreate":1732715094365,"gmtModify":1732715096383,"author":{"id":"3494314295033535","authorId":"3494314295033535","name":"LogicalWing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bf4a2a2a9c706853c6e44d3e47098e5","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494314295033535","authorIdStr":"3494314295033535"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"2000？真敢想…","listText":"2000？真敢想…","text":"2000？真敢想…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375494288994760","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1436,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":375524681687432,"gmtCreate":1732684275083,"gmtModify":1732684277209,"author":{"id":"3494314295033535","authorId":"3494314295033535","name":"LogicalWing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bf4a2a2a9c706853c6e44d3e47098e5","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494314295033535","authorIdStr":"3494314295033535"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"分析得很深刻","listText":"分析得很深刻","text":"分析得很深刻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375524681687432","repostId":"2486024389","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2486024389","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1732613268,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2486024389?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-11-26 17:27","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"美团新业务减亏带来的利润，可以持续吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2486024389","media":"新浪财经","summary":"美团的利润从哪里来的？但依然无法完全说服自己，把美团的利润与餐饮企业叫惨完全隔开。要解决这个谬误，我们需要先理清，美团的利润到底从哪里来的？2024年以来，推动美团业绩超预期的核心因素有四个：降本增效、交叉协同、新业务大幅减亏、到店酒旅竞争格局转好。横向对比，从三季度已经发布了财报的几家互联网公司看，利润率都非常可观，而美团（预测值）在这些企业中的利润表现实际上非常普通。","content":"<html><body><article><p>2024年，可能是餐饮行业有史以来最令人困惑的一年。</p><p>一方面大量老牌餐饮企业业绩令人揪心，另一方面大量新锐品牌快速崛起。</p><p>一方面餐饮行业正迎来大范围供给侧出清，另一方面餐饮业仍是吸纳新增就业最多的行业。</p><p>一方面全行业利润承压，另一方面餐饮大盘仍在以远超社零增速的方式健康增长。</p><p>一方面老牌餐饮企业频频叫惨，并把矛头指向了美团，另一方面，餐饮企业面对众多本地生活平台可选的时候，却还是坚定地拥抱了美团。</p><p>用狄更斯在《双城记》中的话说：</p><p>这是最好的时代，这是最坏的时代；</p><p>这是光明的季节，这是黑暗的季节；</p><p>这是希望之春，这是失望之冬；</p><p>餐饮行业到底在经历什么？美团三季度业绩如何？它的利润从何而来，与餐饮业到底是什么样的关系？行业将往何处去？相信这些问题也是许多从业者、投资人关心的，今天我们试图一一解读，给大家提供一些不一样的视角。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20241126173857006d152gq9eb4sg68j\"/><p>餐饮冰火两重天</p><p>1.老牌餐饮业的艰难一年</p><p>2024年以来，多个“头牌老店”、“传统名店”宣布闭店消息。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20241126173857647d152k2t1i3bnfvi\"/><p>根据财报或公开消息，1998年创立的 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00520\">呷哺呷哺</a> ，上半年即已关闭78家餐厅，包括呷哺呷哺门店48家，凑凑餐厅23家，趁烧餐厅7家，高端烧肉品牌趁烧全部闭店。</p><p>1996年进入中国的味千拉面，今年上半年关闭内地和香港门店65家，新开30家，净关闭35家。</p><p>2001年进入中国市场的鼎泰丰，今年已陆续关闭门店14家；而广州清心鸡沙田乳鸽、杭州山葵家、广州稻香、黑鸡小馆、哥老官等知名老品牌，今年也分别陆续关闭了6家、40多家、11家、7家、30多家门店。</p><p>与此同时，多家港股或A股上市餐饮企业，今年财务表现堪忧。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20241126173859030d152mi3miu1169l\"/><p>呷哺呷哺、味千拉面、 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03666\">上海小南国</a> 等上半年财报均录得亏损，且亏损金额大幅扩大，营收也出现下降， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000721\">西安饮食</a> 三季报也录得亏损和营收、利润双降。</p><p>港股上市的知名餐饮企业 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09922\">九毛九</a> ，旗下品牌太二（限自营）、怂火锅、九毛九三季度同店销售额分别下降18.3%、32.5%、10.3%，财报显示，2024年上半年，怂火锅同店销售约1.94亿元，同比减少34.7%，三季度怂火锅同店销售额同比下滑32.5%，延续跌势。</p><p>2. “新”餐饮企业“闷声发财”</p><p>但另一面，在激烈的市场竞争下，仍然有一批餐饮新势力突破重围、逆势增长。</p><p>从今年三季度业绩报告看， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/605338\">巴比食品</a> 、 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603043\">广州酒家</a> 利润率都高达18%以上。巴比食品在2023年超预期开拓了1319家加盟门店，全国门店规模突破5000家大关，并在2024年计划新拓展门店1000家。瑞幸咖啡在三季度展现了强劲的增长势头和盈利能力，季度收入首次突破百亿元，创下历史新高，同比增长超41%。老牌餐饮如 全聚德 、百盛中国、 海底捞 也录得10%的净利润率。（注意这里是净利润率而不是毛利率）</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20241126173900530d152k7uaien0s6v\"/><p>（几家欢喜几家愁，餐饮行业内部分化一直很严重）</p><p>2024年，还有一批积极转型的品牌也快速进入消费者视野，比如凭借极致的门店模型和充满“烟火气”的小炒特色迅速建立消费口碑的兰湘子湘菜小炒。截至2024年9月，其全国门店数已超过300家，门店覆盖全国50余个城市。新锐品牌夸父炸串在2024年完成了B轮融资，累计融资额度已高达5亿元，成为炸串赛道头部玩家，计划在2024年新开3000家门店，以平均每天新增8家门店的速度，将总门店数提升至5000家。</p><p>所以，不是餐饮行业不行了，是一部分守旧的不愿意转型的老牌餐饮不行了，新旧动能转化、生态变迁是行业自然规律，优胜劣汰、适者生存，是餐饮行业的自然分化和迭代。而所谓“老餐饮品牌”和“新餐饮势力”之分，也并不在于开业年头，而是看谁能顺应行业潮流，抓住消费者的需求。</p><p>3.行业有分化，但仍火热</p><p>微观层面，餐饮行业分化明显，而如果我们把视角向上拉到宏观层面，会发现，餐饮行业大盘仍然是健康增长的，而且是推动中国消费回暖的核心因素。</p><p>从从业人数也能看出这种趋势：</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20241126173901531d15276k2b6o8se1\"/><p>根据统计局数据，2023年新增就业人口的行业中，住宿和餐饮业是绝对的第一大行业，净增加了近300万从业者，是就业压力的巨大解压阀。</p><p>据数据，2024年1-11月，全国餐饮相关企业注册量为313.9万家，企业存量达到了1670.1万家，已经超过去年全年的1558.4万家，增长了8.5%。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20241126173904102d152f22qspoxrf1\"/><p>分食者众，僧多粥少。行业供给大幅增加，增速远远超过了餐饮大盘的增速，平均到单个企业或个体的收入，自然就变少了。</p><p>其实，餐饮行业本身就是随着宏观经济波动非常大的行业，人来人往、洗牌汰换是行业永恒的主题。比如早些年 房地产 市场蓬勃发展的时候，靠着商务宴请不知养活了多少的餐饮企业，而随着房地产市场下行，这部分被淘汰的企业又该怨谁呢？</p><p>作为参考，我们整理了前三季度国内社零同比增速、餐饮行业累计产值和同比增速：</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20241126173910661d152270yf7m0u6p\"/><p>我们可以直观看到，餐饮行业整体增速远高于社零增速，餐饮行业仍然是驱动中国消费回暖的重要力量。正如红餐网联合创始人樊宁所说，“餐饮个体的脆弱性组成了餐饮大盘的反脆弱性，并且这将成为行业常态”。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20241126173913068d152a35xz616jwx\"/><p>美团业绩持续超预期</p><p>视角切换到美团，2024年上半年，美团业绩持续超预期，推动股价触底反弹，年内涨幅达到104.6%，9月份以来，国内宏观经济预期有所修复，叠加政策利好，中国<span>资产</span>表现强势，美团走势远超恒科指数同期表现。</p><p>展望三季度，市场一致预期美团营收917亿，同比增长19.9%，Non-IFRS经调整<span>净利润</span>一致预期为119.3亿，同比增长109%。我们的预测比上述数据稍微更乐观一些。下图标黄数据均为我们的预测值：</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20241126173917269d152wbmy1p9ptr0\"/><p>三季度，我们预测美团营收大约923亿，同比增速20.6%，其中核心本地商业预计营收687亿，同比增速19.1%，新业务预计营收236亿，同比增速25.5%。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20241126173918484d1524nfq9e1gqrk\"/><p>同时，我们预计三季度核心本地商业经营利润大约138亿，利润率20.1%，环比略有下降，主要因为外卖和闪购业务UE不及二季度，二季度外卖和闪购UE表现好有季节性因素；新业务预计经营亏损17亿，利润率-7.2%，亏损金额和比例均略有扩大，优选的减亏速度有所下降，但预计总亏损金额仍有下降，三季度有额外冷链投入，同时小象超市等新业务投入加大。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20241126173919852d152cwr3aubj21h\"/><p>我们预计三季度毛利率继续提升，同时营销、研发、行政三项开支受益于经营杠杆提升，在总收入中的占比继续下降，预计整体经营利润101亿，Non-IFRS净利润125亿，经营性现金流156亿。</p><p>经营层面，我们预计三季度即时零售日均单量将同比增长14.3%，达到日均约7680万单。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20241126173920376d152csgrplk6a2r\"/><p>外卖日均单量预计达到约6620万单，同比增长11.2%。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20241126173921240d152ih00tuq38xd\"/><p>闪购日均单量预计达到约1060万单，占整体即时零售单量的13.8%，同比增速39.5%。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20241126173923334d152lunav9dgfbs\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20241126173924452d1528hxaw74yp7l\"/><p>美团的利润从哪里来的？</p><p>尽管我们看到了餐饮行业的分化，也看到了餐饮依然是拉动消费大盘的重要力量。但依然无法完全说服自己，把美团的利润与餐饮企业叫惨完全隔开。毕竟美团与餐饮行业联系紧密，而大平台和小商户相比似乎总是显得强势，大众总是下意识地认为，美团的利润就是靠吸走餐饮的利润而来的。</p><p>要解决这个谬误，我们需要先理清，美团的利润到底从哪里来的？</p><p>2024年以来，推动美团业绩超预期的核心因素有四个：降本增效、交叉协同、新业务大幅减亏、到店酒旅竞争格局转好。</p><p>第一个因素实际上是 互联网 行业的共性，最近几个季度，大部分互联网平台企业都表现出了营收增速一般般，利润增长显著的特征。横向对比，从三季度已经发布了财报的几家互联网公司看，利润率都非常可观，而美团（预测值）在这些企业中的利润表现实际上非常普通。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20241126173925634d152pzgec96v8hd\"/><p>如果之前的预测准确的话，美团三季度营收和利润都只排在靠后，相比于电商、游戏，本地生活是低<span>毛利</span>生意，无论是利润规模还是利润率，美团的数据都只能算一般。</p><p>第二个因素交叉协同，是美团的巨大优势，比如到餐和外卖协同，到家和到店协同，新业务和核心本地商业之间的用户交叉协同，未来还包括供应链端的多业务交叉协同。</p><p>而新业务大幅减亏和到店酒旅业务竞争格局转好，则是美团在高强度压力下做出的战略调整和战术升级的自然结果。其中，新业务减亏对利润的贡献是直接的。过去的五年里，新业务单季均亏52亿元，而到2024年开始，单季亏损一度收窄到13亿，一个季度直接贡献出接近40亿的利润。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20241126173931914d15296i99gp0ygh\"/><p>在这个周期中，美团不仅没有提升货币化率，反而因为竞争激化、消费疲软释放了大量商户补贴措施，比如到餐业务佣金返还、残障人士开店补贴、低线城市订阅门槛下降等等。</p><p>除了供给侧补贴，美团也在一如既往地进行消费侧补贴，特价团、直播都是直接进行价补，而神会员则是对核心用户群进行定向补贴。</p><p>正是由于供需两端补贴，加上高质量的市场竞争催化线上化进程，整个本地生活行业的市场规模扩大，而互联网平台企业的优势在于，提升收入规模的同时可以做到成本基本不增加，甚至有所减少，在降本增效行业背景下，利润自然而然就释放出来了。</p><p>美团业绩增长不是餐饮企业表现不佳的原因，双方从来都不是零和博弈的关系。相反，两者相辅相成、共荣共生。</p><p>没有近2000万餐饮主体存在，美团的外卖和到店餐饮业务就无从谈起。同时，数以千万计的餐饮主体，有获客、营销需求，这是美团能够为他们提供服务的根基，也是美团到店餐饮、外卖业务持续增长的直接原因。</p><p>但是，我们也要意识到，美团存在的根本原因，是消费者需求客观存在、消费习惯迁移。到店餐饮是客观存在的需求，无论线上存在与否，消费者实际上都是去店里消费，美团这类平台更多提供的是营销（对商家）、省钱（对消费者）价值，商家和消费者各取所需，平台提供撮合功能。</p><p>到家外卖则是新一代消费者的消费习惯迁移，随着少子化、单身化、老龄化社会越发普遍，外卖的渗透率会更高，因为它在丰富性、便利性、确定性、节省性方面都具备无与伦比的优势，自然可以承接大量存量消费迁移和新增消费激发，因此是一个长期的消费增量场景，那么对于本就面临困境的餐饮行业参与主体来说，这就是一个巨大的新机会。</p><p>某种程度上来说，外卖平台之于餐饮，就像云服务之于有IT服务需求的公司。过去大家都是本地部署 服务器 来使用IT服务，云服务的出现，使得按需支出成为可能，不再需要固定的IT资本支出，投入变得更加灵活，无需折旧。在人流密集的地方开大店，对于餐饮行业来说就是固定资本支出，无论你生意好坏，这笔开支每天都会固定产生，而外卖平台实际上让餐饮企业有了一个没有固定支出的灵活选择。所以正确的思路，是根据消费者习惯迁移、根据新的获客渠道，改变店铺模型、成本结构，抓取新的红利。</p><p>如果今天仍对外卖持抵触情绪，就相当于2010年认为“ 云计算 是新瓶装旧酒”，结果可想而知。</p><p>从这个角度来看，外卖平台是线下餐饮的白衣骑士，双方完全是共荣共生的关系。</p><p>其实还有一个直观的现象是，餐饮企业需要美团，仍在主动选择美团。本地生活是一个竞争激烈的赛道，尤其近几年，包括抖音、快手、视频号、小红书、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>甚至<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>，都在试图切入，按理说新入局的玩家会给商户提供更丰厚的吸引，但事实上，最近几个季度，美团平台的年活跃商户数持续创新高。美团依然是餐饮商户的第一选择，这说明，餐饮商户在美团根本上是能实现利益最大化的。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20241126173938428d152rehiuwf5w19\"/><p>写在最后</p><p>行业的发展，总是其中每一个个体共同推动的结果，餐饮企业是其一，作为平台的美团也是其一。</p><p>虽然行业目前面临一些阵痛，但是整个大盘仍然在快速增长，我们有这个星球上几乎最大的餐饮市场，这就是餐饮人最大的福利和底气。</p><p>中国烹饪协会资料显示，1978年，中国餐饮业营业网点不足12万个，行业规模54.8亿元，人均消费不足6元，而今天已经分别扩大到1600多万个、5.3万亿、2800多元，这样的市场空间和指数级增长历史，餐饮人应该感到与有荣焉。</p><p>1978年的餐饮业市场主体是建国饭店、国企食堂等公私合营单位，1978年后，外资和民企逐渐站上舞台中央，今天，这个行业95%以上的市场主体都是私营企业，每个人都可以公平、公正地参与市场竞争。</p><p>一个时代有一个时代的机遇，2000-2010年的机会是奥运、大基建，连锁快餐和高端宴请吃到了时代红利，所以俏江南、湘鄂情、华莱士、真功夫、小肥羊、谭鱼头在这个阶段崛起。</p><p>2010-2020年代，国八条出台，商场井喷，皇太吉、雕爷牛奶、西少爷、西北、外婆家、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06862\">海底捞</a>、喜茶、文和友趁着互联网+和shopping mall的东风发迹江湖。</p><p>2020年后，随着疫情出现， 移动互联 网普及，低线市场消费力爆发，外卖渗透率提升，瑞幸、喜茶、蜜雪冰城、霸王茶姬、南城香等新一代品牌异军突起。</p><p>没人能永立潮头，也总有人能抓住机会向上。餐饮行业潮起潮落的分化、洗牌，一直在上演，从来不是今天才新出的故事。</p><p>所以，依然要有信心，14亿人的庞大市场，潜心钻研透手艺，做好 食品安全 、口味，无论市场多么差，你的生意都不会太差。</p><p>同时，也要钻研行业基本规律，到水草丰美的地方去。比如2010年代去商场开店，今天要全心拥抱互联网，拥抱外卖，拥抱茶饮、小吃小喝类新消费，有能力的要出海去做全球生意，中餐的优势巨大，因为出海旅游、创业、工作的中国人越来越多，这是一个巨大的生态和机会。</p><p>笔者在海外旅行时发现，哪怕是在东南亚这样所谓的穷地方，当地的中餐消费价格都普遍远高于国内，而竞争又远低于国内，只要口味做得不错的，生意普遍都火爆。实际上七八十年代日本、韩国、台湾经济先后崛起，产业全球扩张过程中，当地的餐饮也跟了过去，服务本地出海人群的一日三餐。</p><p>中国人有更加顽固的“中国胃”，我们看到多少社交媒体上海外华人抱怨思念家乡美食的帖子？</p><p>所以，机会永远都在，它在那些你看得见的地方，去拥抱新一代消费者习惯迁移的趋势；也在那些你未曾看见的地方，去探索 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600628\">新世界</a> ，拥抱新世界吧。</p><p>特别声明：以上内容仅代表作者本人的观点或立场，不代表新浪财经头条的观点或立场。如因作品内容、版权或其他问题需要与新浪财经头条联系的，请于上述内容发布后的30天内进行。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美团新业务减亏带来的利润，可以持续吗？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美团新业务减亏带来的利润，可以持续吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-11-26 17:27 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20241126173942abe02cc8&s=b><strong>新浪财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2024年，可能是餐饮行业有史以来最令人困惑的一年。一方面大量老牌餐饮企业业绩令人揪心，另一方面大量新锐品牌快速崛起。一方面餐饮行业正迎来大范围供给侧出清，另一方面餐饮业仍是吸纳新增就业最多的行业。一方面全行业利润承压，另一方面餐饮大盘仍在以远超社零增速的方式健康增长。一方面老牌餐饮企业频频叫惨，并把矛头指向了美团，另一方面，餐饮企业面对众多本地生活平台可选的时候，却还是坚定地拥抱了美团。用狄更斯...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20241126173942abe02cc8&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"83690":"美团-WR","LU0572944931.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 SGD","LU1868837722.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES \"2\" (USD) ACC","MPNGY":"美团ADR","LU0456827905.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - China A (acc) SGD","LU1961090484.USD":"ALLIANZ ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1807302812.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV ALL CHINA \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1868837565.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES \"1\" (USD) ACC","LU1719994722.HKD":"NINETY ONE GSF ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2097828557.USD":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK1575":"同股不同权","LU0541502299.USD":"ALLSPRING  EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0531971595.HKD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU2097828631.EUR":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A\" (EUR) ACC","LU0865486749.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Asian Equity Income AS SGD-H","LU0449515922.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"PC\" (USD)ACC","LU0348805143.USD":"ALLIANZ ENHANCED ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2097828714.EUR":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"BAZ\" (EUR) ACC","LU0499858438.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ASIA PACIFIC EQUITY OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) INC","IE0034224299.USD":"PINEBRIDGE ASIA EX JAPAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","03690":"美团-W","LU2097828805.USD":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A-AZ\" (USD) ACC","LU0856984785.SGD":"HSBC GIF MANAGED SOLUTIONS ASIA FOCUSED GROWTH \"ACH\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0672654166.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Asian Growth A (acc) SGD-H1","LU1993786604.SGD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV ALL CHINA \"P\" (SGD) ACC","LU0039217434.USD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AD\" INC","LU0577902298.EUR":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA GROWTH & INCOME EQUITIE \"I\" (EUR) ACC","LU0052750758.USD":"富兰克林中国基金A Acc","LU1720050803.USD":"安联全方位中国股票基金","BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓","LU1226287529.USD":"UBS (LUX) KEY SELECTION SICAV - CHINA ALLOCATION  OPPORTUNITY (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0509642566.USD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) INC AV","LU0543330483.HKD":"TEMPLETON ASIAN GROWTH \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2097828474.EUR":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A\" (EUR) ACC A","LU0048580855.USD":"富达大中华区A","LU0501845795.SGD":"瑞银大中华区股票基金P Acc SGD","LU0979878070.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"A\" (USD) ACC","SG9999000459.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard Pacific Equity SGD","LU0143863198.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES\"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0577902538.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Asia Growth and Income Equities A Acc SGD","LU0228659784.USD":"施罗德金砖四国基金","LU0320764599.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton China A Acc SGD","BK1142":"互联网与直销零售","LU0054450605.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EMERGING MARKTS EQ \"AD\" INC","LU1880383440.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS CHINA EQUITY \"A2\" (USD) INC","LU1008478684.HKD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND -  CHINA OPPORTUNITY \"P\" (HKD) ACC","LU0456846285.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Greater China A (acc) SGD","LU0594300419.USD":"富达中国消费基金A","LU0540923850.HKD":"ALLIANZ HONG KONG EQUITY \"A\" (HKD) INC","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20241126173942abe02cc8&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2486024389","content_text":"2024年，可能是餐饮行业有史以来最令人困惑的一年。一方面大量老牌餐饮企业业绩令人揪心，另一方面大量新锐品牌快速崛起。一方面餐饮行业正迎来大范围供给侧出清，另一方面餐饮业仍是吸纳新增就业最多的行业。一方面全行业利润承压，另一方面餐饮大盘仍在以远超社零增速的方式健康增长。一方面老牌餐饮企业频频叫惨，并把矛头指向了美团，另一方面，餐饮企业面对众多本地生活平台可选的时候，却还是坚定地拥抱了美团。用狄更斯在《双城记》中的话说：这是最好的时代，这是最坏的时代；这是光明的季节，这是黑暗的季节；这是希望之春，这是失望之冬；餐饮行业到底在经历什么？美团三季度业绩如何？它的利润从何而来，与餐饮业到底是什么样的关系？行业将往何处去？相信这些问题也是许多从业者、投资人关心的，今天我们试图一一解读，给大家提供一些不一样的视角。餐饮冰火两重天1.老牌餐饮业的艰难一年2024年以来，多个“头牌老店”、“传统名店”宣布闭店消息。根据财报或公开消息，1998年创立的 呷哺呷哺 ，上半年即已关闭78家餐厅，包括呷哺呷哺门店48家，凑凑餐厅23家，趁烧餐厅7家，高端烧肉品牌趁烧全部闭店。1996年进入中国的味千拉面，今年上半年关闭内地和香港门店65家，新开30家，净关闭35家。2001年进入中国市场的鼎泰丰，今年已陆续关闭门店14家；而广州清心鸡沙田乳鸽、杭州山葵家、广州稻香、黑鸡小馆、哥老官等知名老品牌，今年也分别陆续关闭了6家、40多家、11家、7家、30多家门店。与此同时，多家港股或A股上市餐饮企业，今年财务表现堪忧。呷哺呷哺、味千拉面、 上海小南国 等上半年财报均录得亏损，且亏损金额大幅扩大，营收也出现下降， 西安饮食 三季报也录得亏损和营收、利润双降。港股上市的知名餐饮企业 九毛九 ，旗下品牌太二（限自营）、怂火锅、九毛九三季度同店销售额分别下降18.3%、32.5%、10.3%，财报显示，2024年上半年，怂火锅同店销售约1.94亿元，同比减少34.7%，三季度怂火锅同店销售额同比下滑32.5%，延续跌势。2. “新”餐饮企业“闷声发财”但另一面，在激烈的市场竞争下，仍然有一批餐饮新势力突破重围、逆势增长。从今年三季度业绩报告看， 巴比食品 、 广州酒家 利润率都高达18%以上。巴比食品在2023年超预期开拓了1319家加盟门店，全国门店规模突破5000家大关，并在2024年计划新拓展门店1000家。瑞幸咖啡在三季度展现了强劲的增长势头和盈利能力，季度收入首次突破百亿元，创下历史新高，同比增长超41%。老牌餐饮如 全聚德 、百盛中国、 海底捞 也录得10%的净利润率。（注意这里是净利润率而不是毛利率）（几家欢喜几家愁，餐饮行业内部分化一直很严重）2024年，还有一批积极转型的品牌也快速进入消费者视野，比如凭借极致的门店模型和充满“烟火气”的小炒特色迅速建立消费口碑的兰湘子湘菜小炒。截至2024年9月，其全国门店数已超过300家，门店覆盖全国50余个城市。新锐品牌夸父炸串在2024年完成了B轮融资，累计融资额度已高达5亿元，成为炸串赛道头部玩家，计划在2024年新开3000家门店，以平均每天新增8家门店的速度，将总门店数提升至5000家。所以，不是餐饮行业不行了，是一部分守旧的不愿意转型的老牌餐饮不行了，新旧动能转化、生态变迁是行业自然规律，优胜劣汰、适者生存，是餐饮行业的自然分化和迭代。而所谓“老餐饮品牌”和“新餐饮势力”之分，也并不在于开业年头，而是看谁能顺应行业潮流，抓住消费者的需求。3.行业有分化，但仍火热微观层面，餐饮行业分化明显，而如果我们把视角向上拉到宏观层面，会发现，餐饮行业大盘仍然是健康增长的，而且是推动中国消费回暖的核心因素。从从业人数也能看出这种趋势：根据统计局数据，2023年新增就业人口的行业中，住宿和餐饮业是绝对的第一大行业，净增加了近300万从业者，是就业压力的巨大解压阀。据数据，2024年1-11月，全国餐饮相关企业注册量为313.9万家，企业存量达到了1670.1万家，已经超过去年全年的1558.4万家，增长了8.5%。分食者众，僧多粥少。行业供给大幅增加，增速远远超过了餐饮大盘的增速，平均到单个企业或个体的收入，自然就变少了。其实，餐饮行业本身就是随着宏观经济波动非常大的行业，人来人往、洗牌汰换是行业永恒的主题。比如早些年 房地产 市场蓬勃发展的时候，靠着商务宴请不知养活了多少的餐饮企业，而随着房地产市场下行，这部分被淘汰的企业又该怨谁呢？作为参考，我们整理了前三季度国内社零同比增速、餐饮行业累计产值和同比增速：我们可以直观看到，餐饮行业整体增速远高于社零增速，餐饮行业仍然是驱动中国消费回暖的重要力量。正如红餐网联合创始人樊宁所说，“餐饮个体的脆弱性组成了餐饮大盘的反脆弱性，并且这将成为行业常态”。美团业绩持续超预期视角切换到美团，2024年上半年，美团业绩持续超预期，推动股价触底反弹，年内涨幅达到104.6%，9月份以来，国内宏观经济预期有所修复，叠加政策利好，中国资产表现强势，美团走势远超恒科指数同期表现。展望三季度，市场一致预期美团营收917亿，同比增长19.9%，Non-IFRS经调整净利润一致预期为119.3亿，同比增长109%。我们的预测比上述数据稍微更乐观一些。下图标黄数据均为我们的预测值：三季度，我们预测美团营收大约923亿，同比增速20.6%，其中核心本地商业预计营收687亿，同比增速19.1%，新业务预计营收236亿，同比增速25.5%。同时，我们预计三季度核心本地商业经营利润大约138亿，利润率20.1%，环比略有下降，主要因为外卖和闪购业务UE不及二季度，二季度外卖和闪购UE表现好有季节性因素；新业务预计经营亏损17亿，利润率-7.2%，亏损金额和比例均略有扩大，优选的减亏速度有所下降，但预计总亏损金额仍有下降，三季度有额外冷链投入，同时小象超市等新业务投入加大。我们预计三季度毛利率继续提升，同时营销、研发、行政三项开支受益于经营杠杆提升，在总收入中的占比继续下降，预计整体经营利润101亿，Non-IFRS净利润125亿，经营性现金流156亿。经营层面，我们预计三季度即时零售日均单量将同比增长14.3%，达到日均约7680万单。外卖日均单量预计达到约6620万单，同比增长11.2%。闪购日均单量预计达到约1060万单，占整体即时零售单量的13.8%，同比增速39.5%。美团的利润从哪里来的？尽管我们看到了餐饮行业的分化，也看到了餐饮依然是拉动消费大盘的重要力量。但依然无法完全说服自己，把美团的利润与餐饮企业叫惨完全隔开。毕竟美团与餐饮行业联系紧密，而大平台和小商户相比似乎总是显得强势，大众总是下意识地认为，美团的利润就是靠吸走餐饮的利润而来的。要解决这个谬误，我们需要先理清，美团的利润到底从哪里来的？2024年以来，推动美团业绩超预期的核心因素有四个：降本增效、交叉协同、新业务大幅减亏、到店酒旅竞争格局转好。第一个因素实际上是 互联网 行业的共性，最近几个季度，大部分互联网平台企业都表现出了营收增速一般般，利润增长显著的特征。横向对比，从三季度已经发布了财报的几家互联网公司看，利润率都非常可观，而美团（预测值）在这些企业中的利润表现实际上非常普通。如果之前的预测准确的话，美团三季度营收和利润都只排在靠后，相比于电商、游戏，本地生活是低毛利生意，无论是利润规模还是利润率，美团的数据都只能算一般。第二个因素交叉协同，是美团的巨大优势，比如到餐和外卖协同，到家和到店协同，新业务和核心本地商业之间的用户交叉协同，未来还包括供应链端的多业务交叉协同。而新业务大幅减亏和到店酒旅业务竞争格局转好，则是美团在高强度压力下做出的战略调整和战术升级的自然结果。其中，新业务减亏对利润的贡献是直接的。过去的五年里，新业务单季均亏52亿元，而到2024年开始，单季亏损一度收窄到13亿，一个季度直接贡献出接近40亿的利润。在这个周期中，美团不仅没有提升货币化率，反而因为竞争激化、消费疲软释放了大量商户补贴措施，比如到餐业务佣金返还、残障人士开店补贴、低线城市订阅门槛下降等等。除了供给侧补贴，美团也在一如既往地进行消费侧补贴，特价团、直播都是直接进行价补，而神会员则是对核心用户群进行定向补贴。正是由于供需两端补贴，加上高质量的市场竞争催化线上化进程，整个本地生活行业的市场规模扩大，而互联网平台企业的优势在于，提升收入规模的同时可以做到成本基本不增加，甚至有所减少，在降本增效行业背景下，利润自然而然就释放出来了。美团业绩增长不是餐饮企业表现不佳的原因，双方从来都不是零和博弈的关系。相反，两者相辅相成、共荣共生。没有近2000万餐饮主体存在，美团的外卖和到店餐饮业务就无从谈起。同时，数以千万计的餐饮主体，有获客、营销需求，这是美团能够为他们提供服务的根基，也是美团到店餐饮、外卖业务持续增长的直接原因。但是，我们也要意识到，美团存在的根本原因，是消费者需求客观存在、消费习惯迁移。到店餐饮是客观存在的需求，无论线上存在与否，消费者实际上都是去店里消费，美团这类平台更多提供的是营销（对商家）、省钱（对消费者）价值，商家和消费者各取所需，平台提供撮合功能。到家外卖则是新一代消费者的消费习惯迁移，随着少子化、单身化、老龄化社会越发普遍，外卖的渗透率会更高，因为它在丰富性、便利性、确定性、节省性方面都具备无与伦比的优势，自然可以承接大量存量消费迁移和新增消费激发，因此是一个长期的消费增量场景，那么对于本就面临困境的餐饮行业参与主体来说，这就是一个巨大的新机会。某种程度上来说，外卖平台之于餐饮，就像云服务之于有IT服务需求的公司。过去大家都是本地部署 服务器 来使用IT服务，云服务的出现，使得按需支出成为可能，不再需要固定的IT资本支出，投入变得更加灵活，无需折旧。在人流密集的地方开大店，对于餐饮行业来说就是固定资本支出，无论你生意好坏，这笔开支每天都会固定产生，而外卖平台实际上让餐饮企业有了一个没有固定支出的灵活选择。所以正确的思路，是根据消费者习惯迁移、根据新的获客渠道，改变店铺模型、成本结构，抓取新的红利。如果今天仍对外卖持抵触情绪，就相当于2010年认为“ 云计算 是新瓶装旧酒”，结果可想而知。从这个角度来看，外卖平台是线下餐饮的白衣骑士，双方完全是共荣共生的关系。其实还有一个直观的现象是，餐饮企业需要美团，仍在主动选择美团。本地生活是一个竞争激烈的赛道，尤其近几年，包括抖音、快手、视频号、小红书、京东甚至拼多多，都在试图切入，按理说新入局的玩家会给商户提供更丰厚的吸引，但事实上，最近几个季度，美团平台的年活跃商户数持续创新高。美团依然是餐饮商户的第一选择，这说明，餐饮商户在美团根本上是能实现利益最大化的。写在最后行业的发展，总是其中每一个个体共同推动的结果，餐饮企业是其一，作为平台的美团也是其一。虽然行业目前面临一些阵痛，但是整个大盘仍然在快速增长，我们有这个星球上几乎最大的餐饮市场，这就是餐饮人最大的福利和底气。中国烹饪协会资料显示，1978年，中国餐饮业营业网点不足12万个，行业规模54.8亿元，人均消费不足6元，而今天已经分别扩大到1600多万个、5.3万亿、2800多元，这样的市场空间和指数级增长历史，餐饮人应该感到与有荣焉。1978年的餐饮业市场主体是建国饭店、国企食堂等公私合营单位，1978年后，外资和民企逐渐站上舞台中央，今天，这个行业95%以上的市场主体都是私营企业，每个人都可以公平、公正地参与市场竞争。一个时代有一个时代的机遇，2000-2010年的机会是奥运、大基建，连锁快餐和高端宴请吃到了时代红利，所以俏江南、湘鄂情、华莱士、真功夫、小肥羊、谭鱼头在这个阶段崛起。2010-2020年代，国八条出台，商场井喷，皇太吉、雕爷牛奶、西少爷、西北、外婆家、海底捞、喜茶、文和友趁着互联网+和shopping mall的东风发迹江湖。2020年后，随着疫情出现， 移动互联 网普及，低线市场消费力爆发，外卖渗透率提升，瑞幸、喜茶、蜜雪冰城、霸王茶姬、南城香等新一代品牌异军突起。没人能永立潮头，也总有人能抓住机会向上。餐饮行业潮起潮落的分化、洗牌，一直在上演，从来不是今天才新出的故事。所以，依然要有信心，14亿人的庞大市场，潜心钻研透手艺，做好 食品安全 、口味，无论市场多么差，你的生意都不会太差。同时，也要钻研行业基本规律，到水草丰美的地方去。比如2010年代去商场开店，今天要全心拥抱互联网，拥抱外卖，拥抱茶饮、小吃小喝类新消费，有能力的要出海去做全球生意，中餐的优势巨大，因为出海旅游、创业、工作的中国人越来越多，这是一个巨大的生态和机会。笔者在海外旅行时发现，哪怕是在东南亚这样所谓的穷地方，当地的中餐消费价格都普遍远高于国内，而竞争又远低于国内，只要口味做得不错的，生意普遍都火爆。实际上七八十年代日本、韩国、台湾经济先后崛起，产业全球扩张过程中，当地的餐饮也跟了过去，服务本地出海人群的一日三餐。中国人有更加顽固的“中国胃”，我们看到多少社交媒体上海外华人抱怨思念家乡美食的帖子？所以，机会永远都在，它在那些你看得见的地方，去拥抱新一代消费者习惯迁移的趋势；也在那些你未曾看见的地方，去探索 新世界 ，拥抱新世界吧。特别声明：以上内容仅代表作者本人的观点或立场，不代表新浪财经头条的观点或立场。如因作品内容、版权或其他问题需要与新浪财经头条联系的，请于上述内容发布后的30天内进行。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"83690":0.9,"03690":1,"MPNGY":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1406,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":366237532963024,"gmtCreate":1730439600799,"gmtModify":1730439658222,"author":{"id":"3494314295033535","authorId":"3494314295033535","name":"LogicalWing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bf4a2a2a9c706853c6e44d3e47098e5","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494314295033535","authorIdStr":"3494314295033535"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$美团-W(03690)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 小象超市，前置仓闪购，国际化外卖，继续看好美团","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$美团-W(03690)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 小象超市，前置仓闪购，国际化外卖，继续看好美团","text":"$美团-W(03690)$ 小象超市，前置仓闪购，国际化外卖，继续看好美团","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/343406ef261b950cf9ca1fa0fcd373ae","width":"1092","height":"1717"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366237532963024","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":10939,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"20722186463466","authorId":"20722186463466","name":"爱发红包的虎妞","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acf27be178fbc21279d1959ce5bec4e7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"20722186463466","authorIdStr":"20722186463466"},"content":"老师您好，可以加虎妞微信聊聊投资吗？微信：itiger2014","text":"老师您好，可以加虎妞微信聊聊投资吗？微信：itiger2014","html":"老师您好，可以加虎妞微信聊聊投资吗？微信：itiger2014"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":494115452235968,"gmtCreate":1761660011302,"gmtModify":1761662296036,"author":{"id":"3494314295033535","authorId":"3494314295033535","name":"LogicalWing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bf4a2a2a9c706853c6e44d3e47098e5","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494314295033535","authorIdStr":"3494314295033535"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我平仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVO\">$诺和诺德(NVO)$&nbsp;</a>,短期都是利空 先清空用sell put持仓","listText":"我平仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVO\">$诺和诺德(NVO)$&nbsp;</a>,短期都是利空 先清空用sell put持仓","text":"我平仓了$诺和诺德(NVO)$ ,短期都是利空 先清空用sell put持仓","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/494115452235968","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":52,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":421779606860032,"gmtCreate":1744004314307,"gmtModify":1761648510573,"author":{"id":"3494314295033535","authorId":"3494314295033535","name":"LogicalWing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bf4a2a2a9c706853c6e44d3e47098e5","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494314295033535","authorIdStr":"3494314295033535"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$&nbsp;</a>,来看看我最新分享的订单！","listText":"我开仓了<a 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社保影响多少盈利？会跌多少？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/405258738737552","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3782,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3494314295033535","authorId":"3494314295033535","name":"LogicalWing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bf4a2a2a9c706853c6e44d3e47098e5","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3494314295033535","authorIdStr":"3494314295033535"},"content":"【搬运了其他人观点】总成本大概会增加单均0.3-0.5元（看下来是靠近0.3元），公司单均成本会增加0.1-0.2元（今年大概影响0.1元左右）：第一步是会稍微降低一些补贴（消费者承担），第二步是平台、代理商、骑手共同承担剩下的（商家不会） 21-24年，即配单均利润是0.32元、0.82元、1.05元、1.28元，没有这事，25年可能会在1.3-1.4元之间，现在看会在1.2-1.3元之间（对应即配的利润下调20亿左右，因为单量的增加，即配利润的绝对值同比还是会增加一些，但不会多，原先拍50亿左右增量，现在可能只有30亿左右）","text":"【搬运了其他人观点】总成本大概会增加单均0.3-0.5元（看下来是靠近0.3元），公司单均成本会增加0.1-0.2元（今年大概影响0.1元左右）：第一步是会稍微降低一些补贴（消费者承担），第二步是平台、代理商、骑手共同承担剩下的（商家不会） 21-24年，即配单均利润是0.32元、0.82元、1.05元、1.28元，没有这事，25年可能会在1.3-1.4元之间，现在看会在1.2-1.3元之间（对应即配的利润下调20亿左右，因为单量的增加，即配利润的绝对值同比还是会增加一些，但不会多，原先拍50亿左右增量，现在可能只有30亿左右）","html":"【搬运了其他人观点】总成本大概会增加单均0.3-0.5元（看下来是靠近0.3元），公司单均成本会增加0.1-0.2元（今年大概影响0.1元左右）：第一步是会稍微降低一些补贴（消费者承担），第二步是平台、代理商、骑手共同承担剩下的（商家不会） 21-24年，即配单均利润是0.32元、0.82元、1.05元、1.28元，没有这事，25年可能会在1.3-1.4元之间，现在看会在1.2-1.3元之间（对应即配的利润下调20亿左右，因为单量的增加，即配利润的绝对值同比还是会增加一些，但不会多，原先拍50亿左右增量，现在可能只有30亿左右）"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":375137173381424,"gmtCreate":1732589984993,"gmtModify":1732590758240,"author":{"id":"3494314295033535","authorId":"3494314295033535","name":"LogicalWing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bf4a2a2a9c706853c6e44d3e47098e5","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494314295033535","authorIdStr":"3494314295033535"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"已上车...感觉现在严重低估...","listText":"已上车...感觉现在严重低估...","text":"已上车...感觉现在严重低估...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375137173381424","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2111,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667706887832","authorId":"3527667706887832","name":"一起吃息","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8ca4141b654fe2e515d572eda4b8a2e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3527667706887832","authorIdStr":"3527667706887832"},"content":"昨天跌太多，这几年美团发展算不错了，北京都新搬了栋大楼办公，有钱了","text":"昨天跌太多，这几年美团发展算不错了，北京都新搬了栋大楼办公，有钱了","html":"昨天跌太多，这几年美团发展算不错了，北京都新搬了栋大楼办公，有钱了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":420320631865624,"gmtCreate":1743648383136,"gmtModify":1746581962164,"author":{"id":"3494314295033535","authorId":"3494314295033535","name":"LogicalWing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bf4a2a2a9c706853c6e44d3e47098e5","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494314295033535","authorIdStr":"3494314295033535"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我平仓了1手<a 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