JSW的个人主页 - 老虎社区

JSW

JSW

Focus on value investing

IP属地：广东

30关注

1粉丝

0主题

0勋章

03-03

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$ 9.47的成本价算什么？

03-03

$蜜雪集团(02097)$ 拉倒撤退吧

03-03

$小米集团-W(01810)$ 小跌小补大跌大补

2024-05-15

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 有毒吧

2022-03-10

老乡别走

全球股市大反弹，局势是否就此好转？

2019-06-25

$星巴克(SBUX)$ 应坚守自己的宗旨，不为竞争而砸品牌

去老虎APP查看更多动态

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3495596855940868","uuid":"3495596855940868","gmtCreate":1532502835203,"gmtModify":1643679044380,"name":"JSW","pinyin":"jsw","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"Focus on value investing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9197c06de870f3774ea2c2702c64fb2","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":1,"headSize":30,"tweetSize":6,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":900,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":1,"name":"萌萌虎","nameTw":"萌萌虎","represent":"呱呱坠地","factor":"评论帖子3次或发布1条主帖（非转发）","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":1,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-4","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"明星虎友","description":"加入老虎社区2000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddf24b906c7011de2617d4fb3f76987","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d58ad32c97254c6f74db8b97e6ec49","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6304700d92ad91c7a33e2e92ec32ecc1","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.01.16","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-1","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"精英交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到30次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab0f87127c854ce3191a752d57b46edc","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9835ce48b8c8743566d344ac7a7ba8c","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76754b53ce7a90019f132c1d2fbc698f","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.04.15","exceedPercentage":"60.01%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.28","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":3,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"广东","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":3,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":409511051674048,"gmtCreate":1740987917617,"gmtModify":1740988575158,"author":{"id":"3495596855940868","authorId":"3495596855940868","name":"JSW","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9197c06de870f3774ea2c2702c64fb2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3495596855940868","authorIdStr":"3495596855940868"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp; 9.47的成本价算什么？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp; 9.47的成本价算什么？","text":"$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$ 9.47的成本价算什么？","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa3c7ae0e31d82f39241793c4e032bd6","width":"327","height":"545"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/409511051674048","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1502,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":409510682505664,"gmtCreate":1740987827487,"gmtModify":1740988550245,"author":{"id":"3495596855940868","authorId":"3495596855940868","name":"JSW","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9197c06de870f3774ea2c2702c64fb2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3495596855940868","authorIdStr":"3495596855940868"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02097\">$蜜雪集团(02097)$</a> 拉倒 撤退吧","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02097\">$蜜雪集团(02097)$</a> 拉倒 撤退吧","text":"$蜜雪集团(02097)$ 拉倒 撤退吧","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0196e955790b47ada9341e21d7294b2","width":"327","height":"545"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/409510682505664","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":701,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":409497577082936,"gmtCreate":1740985116373,"gmtModify":1740990775888,"author":{"id":"3495596855940868","authorId":"3495596855940868","name":"JSW","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9197c06de870f3774ea2c2702c64fb2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3495596855940868","authorIdStr":"3495596855940868"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 小跌小补 大跌大补","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 小跌小补 大跌大补","text":"$小米集团-W(01810)$ 小跌小补 大跌大补","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/409497577082936","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":670,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":305856374534328,"gmtCreate":1715706536622,"gmtModify":1715707412919,"author":{"id":"3495596855940868","authorId":"3495596855940868","name":"JSW","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9197c06de870f3774ea2c2702c64fb2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3495596855940868","authorIdStr":"3495596855940868"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 有毒吧","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 有毒吧","text":"$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 有毒吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/305856374534328","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1725,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":635136382,"gmtCreate":1646884870640,"gmtModify":1646884870640,"author":{"id":"3495596855940868","authorId":"3495596855940868","name":"JSW","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9197c06de870f3774ea2c2702c64fb2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3495596855940868","authorIdStr":"3495596855940868"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"老乡别走","listText":"老乡别走","text":"老乡别走","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/635136382","repostId":"2218377412","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2218377412","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1646872980,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2218377412?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-03-10 08:43","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"全球股市大反弹，局势是否就此好转？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2218377412","media":"中金公司","summary":"隔夜全球市场出现“大逆转”。布伦特油价大跌11.7%至110美元/桶附近，欧美股市因此大幅反弹，欧洲股市普遍大涨7~8%，美股主要指数也反弹2%以上，纳斯达克更是大涨3.6%。　　那么，局势是否就此好转？　　解铃还须系铃人，隔夜油价大跌市场反弹修复的一个主要原因。油价大跌则与美国敦促页岩油行业加大供给、以及阿联酋表示将推动OPEC增加石油生产有一定关系。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>经过一轮暴风骤雨式的下跌，全球股市终于出现了止跌迹象，所有的资产表现逻辑都出现了逆转。那么，局势是否就此好转？此前的情形就此得到改善呢？</blockquote><p>隔夜全球市场出现“大逆转”。布伦特油价大跌11.7%至110美元/桶附近，欧美股市因此大幅反弹，欧洲股市普遍大涨7~8%，美股主要指数也反弹2%以上，纳斯达克更是大涨3.6%。不仅如此，黄金大跌重回2000美元以下，而美债利率则冲高升至1.96%。似乎一夜之间，所有的资产表现逻辑都出现了逆转。</p><p>那么，局势是否就此好转？此前的情形就此得到改善呢？结合最新的市场变化，我们点评如下，供投资者参考。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bca86eb3ffdb202070180f4afc804ed\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f005e1b4c8e6ca202adbba9ce28c5aa9\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>首先，核心矛盾依然在能源和大宗商品价格。如我们在《俄乌冲击的第二波：从避险情绪到通胀担忧》中分析，受美国和英国宣布制裁俄罗斯能源进口决定的担忧，国际油价一度飙升至历史新高，叠加其他一些资源品如小麦、有色金属等等因为运输和军事行动导致的事实性供应冲击同样大涨，加重了市场对于通胀甚至滞胀的担忧情绪，市场的交易逻辑也因此发生变化，导致全球市场普跌、避险和抗通胀资产上涨。</p><p>解铃还须系铃人，隔夜油价大跌市场反弹修复的一个主要原因。油价大跌则与美国敦促页岩油行业加大供给、以及阿联酋表示将推动OPEC增加石油生产有一定关系。根据华尔街日报报道，阿联酋有100万桶左右的空闲产能，不过此举并没有得到其他OPEC成员特别是沙特的响应，后续进展仍有待观察。</p><p>其次，短期资产和市场走势依然高度依赖事态进展，供应溢价对于短期价格波动扰动很大。隔夜油价的大幅波动再度成为一个地缘趋势影响资产价格的生动例子。</p><p>此前我们已知且确定的是事实性的供应冲击已经造成，但更重要是究竟是瞬时的上冲、还是会持续维持高位甚至进一步上行。欧美在是否制裁俄罗斯能源出口上存在一定分歧，与其依赖度不同有很大关系，美国从俄罗斯进口的原油只占其总进口的8%不到，俄罗斯对美国和英国的出口比例只占其总出口的2%不到。而欧洲依赖度更高，故没有欧洲的全面加入，制裁效果就会大打折扣，冲高的油价也很难维持。</p><p>相反，如果欧美果真采取严格的制裁措施，进而导致俄罗斯大约700万桶的出口出现巨大缺口，根据我们大宗组估算，各方的供应也可以刚好勉强填补这个“窟窿”(OPEC产量空间300万桶，剩余产能200万桶左右，伊朗100-150万桶，页岩油估算200万桶)，但问题是在能够有效填补之前的溢价上冲可能还是难以避免，更不用说情绪的扰动。这也就是为什么，我们在此前月报《俄乌局势叠加中美政策错位的资产含义海外资产配置月报(2022-03)》和《俄乌冲击的第二波：从避险情绪到通胀担忧》中提示油价已经大幅超买、对于从当前高点进一步大幅向上并没有充足把握，但其短期走势依然高度依赖地缘局势的原因。</p><p>原油的出口结构，以及俄罗斯原油的出口目的地</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14a66838f4318c4fac7680416478e3ed\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>再次，接下来观察什么？制裁、加息路径、期限利差、流动性指标</p><p>给定当前的局面，以及结合我们在《俄乌局势对全球供应链影响有多大？》和《俄乌冲击的第二波：从避险情绪到通胀担忧》中给出的四个层次的传导路径(第一层单纯的避险情绪不足为惧；第二层供给冲击已经发生目前最为显性，但持续时间和强度需要观察，会影响“远端”的加息和通胀路径；第三层的金融流动性短期有一些变化但尚未成为主导；第四层是基本面)，我们认为重点需要观察以下几个因素：</p><p>1)制裁进展：地缘局势特别是能源制裁的动向依然是短期最重要的决定因素。</p><p>2)3月FOMC:即将临近的3月FOMC给出后续货币政策路径(如缩表、点阵图的加息水平)。从目前局势看，“近端”操作上依然会按部就班加息(就业好、通胀依然高；市场预期3月加息25bp确定性较高)，但“远端”加息路径有变数。如果俄乌局势能很快缓解使得价格影响较为“瞬时”，那么通胀压力改善的大方向仍可期待；而如果这一冲击进一步固化的话，“远端”加息预期的抬升和对利率与市场估值的冲击也需要再度上修。</p><p>3)期限利差：由于当前避险甚至滞胀担忧交织导致长短端期限利差过快速收窄(此前一度收窄至仅20bp)，因此美联储可能会需要通过缩表来推动长端利率上行以避免过快倒挂(《如果美联储一次加息50bp》)，但是如果通胀持续高企甚至远端通胀比预期的要高得更久更大，那么“曲线倒挂”引发的衰退预期、货币政策两难、企业利润侵蚀、银行板块利润受损等负面影响都可能逐步显现。</p><p>4)流动性指标的变化：是否存在流动性风险蔓延的迹象。</p><p>在这一背景下，市场或有修复但依然不排除起伏直到情形明朗，尤其是对俄乌局势敞口大的欧洲和部分抵御风险能力差的新兴市场。但目前主要市场也已经明显超卖，如美股和港股。相反，大宗商品也明显超买，如黄金和石油，其走势高度依赖地缘局势，我们对于从当前高点进一步大幅向上并没有充足把握。</p><p>如果局势进一步升级，中下游板块和美股银行因为成本抬升和利差走平可能受损，而相反涨价概念(能源和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000061\">农产品</a>)、避险(如高股息)和稳增长发力对冲或更敏感。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc92ff510f18097e03f898ad818256cb\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e748b31464032930039339642e5c8e68\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"529\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04f97ec43063876c35346a9fe1b8f924\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>（文章来源：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">中金公司</a>）</p></body></html>","source":"eastmoney_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>全球股市大反弹，局势是否就此好转？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n全球股市大反弹，局势是否就此好转？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-10 08:43 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://hk.eastmoney.com/a/202203102303814421_0.html><strong>中金公司</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>经过一轮暴风骤雨式的下跌，全球股市终于出现了止跌迹象，所有的资产表现逻辑都出现了逆转。那么，局势是否就此好转？此前的情形就此得到改善呢？隔夜全球市场出现“大逆转”。布伦特油价大跌11.7%至110美元/桶附近，欧美股市因此大幅反弹，欧洲股市普遍大涨7~8%，美股主要指数也反弹2%以上，纳斯达克更是大涨3.6%。不仅如此，黄金大跌重回2000美元以下，而美债利率则冲高升至1.96%。似乎一夜之间，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://hk.eastmoney.com/a/202203102303814421_0.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80a6820aa909b24349894a430fea43b1","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","518880":"黄金ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","IAU":"黄金信托ETF(iShares)","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","DOG":"道指反向ETF","BK4570":"地缘局势概念股","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","USO":"美国原油ETF","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck",".DJI":"道琼斯","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","GLD":"SPDR黄金ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"http://hk.eastmoney.com/a/202203102303814421_0.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2218377412","content_text":"经过一轮暴风骤雨式的下跌，全球股市终于出现了止跌迹象，所有的资产表现逻辑都出现了逆转。那么，局势是否就此好转？此前的情形就此得到改善呢？隔夜全球市场出现“大逆转”。布伦特油价大跌11.7%至110美元/桶附近，欧美股市因此大幅反弹，欧洲股市普遍大涨7~8%，美股主要指数也反弹2%以上，纳斯达克更是大涨3.6%。不仅如此，黄金大跌重回2000美元以下，而美债利率则冲高升至1.96%。似乎一夜之间，所有的资产表现逻辑都出现了逆转。那么，局势是否就此好转？此前的情形就此得到改善呢？结合最新的市场变化，我们点评如下，供投资者参考。首先，核心矛盾依然在能源和大宗商品价格。如我们在《俄乌冲击的第二波：从避险情绪到通胀担忧》中分析，受美国和英国宣布制裁俄罗斯能源进口决定的担忧，国际油价一度飙升至历史新高，叠加其他一些资源品如小麦、有色金属等等因为运输和军事行动导致的事实性供应冲击同样大涨，加重了市场对于通胀甚至滞胀的担忧情绪，市场的交易逻辑也因此发生变化，导致全球市场普跌、避险和抗通胀资产上涨。解铃还须系铃人，隔夜油价大跌市场反弹修复的一个主要原因。油价大跌则与美国敦促页岩油行业加大供给、以及阿联酋表示将推动OPEC增加石油生产有一定关系。根据华尔街日报报道，阿联酋有100万桶左右的空闲产能，不过此举并没有得到其他OPEC成员特别是沙特的响应，后续进展仍有待观察。其次，短期资产和市场走势依然高度依赖事态进展，供应溢价对于短期价格波动扰动很大。隔夜油价的大幅波动再度成为一个地缘趋势影响资产价格的生动例子。此前我们已知且确定的是事实性的供应冲击已经造成，但更重要是究竟是瞬时的上冲、还是会持续维持高位甚至进一步上行。欧美在是否制裁俄罗斯能源出口上存在一定分歧，与其依赖度不同有很大关系，美国从俄罗斯进口的原油只占其总进口的8%不到，俄罗斯对美国和英国的出口比例只占其总出口的2%不到。而欧洲依赖度更高，故没有欧洲的全面加入，制裁效果就会大打折扣，冲高的油价也很难维持。相反，如果欧美果真采取严格的制裁措施，进而导致俄罗斯大约700万桶的出口出现巨大缺口，根据我们大宗组估算，各方的供应也可以刚好勉强填补这个“窟窿”(OPEC产量空间300万桶，剩余产能200万桶左右，伊朗100-150万桶，页岩油估算200万桶)，但问题是在能够有效填补之前的溢价上冲可能还是难以避免，更不用说情绪的扰动。这也就是为什么，我们在此前月报《俄乌局势叠加中美政策错位的资产含义海外资产配置月报(2022-03)》和《俄乌冲击的第二波：从避险情绪到通胀担忧》中提示油价已经大幅超买、对于从当前高点进一步大幅向上并没有充足把握，但其短期走势依然高度依赖地缘局势的原因。原油的出口结构，以及俄罗斯原油的出口目的地再次，接下来观察什么？制裁、加息路径、期限利差、流动性指标给定当前的局面，以及结合我们在《俄乌局势对全球供应链影响有多大？》和《俄乌冲击的第二波：从避险情绪到通胀担忧》中给出的四个层次的传导路径(第一层单纯的避险情绪不足为惧；第二层供给冲击已经发生目前最为显性，但持续时间和强度需要观察，会影响“远端”的加息和通胀路径；第三层的金融流动性短期有一些变化但尚未成为主导；第四层是基本面)，我们认为重点需要观察以下几个因素：1)制裁进展：地缘局势特别是能源制裁的动向依然是短期最重要的决定因素。2)3月FOMC:即将临近的3月FOMC给出后续货币政策路径(如缩表、点阵图的加息水平)。从目前局势看，“近端”操作上依然会按部就班加息(就业好、通胀依然高；市场预期3月加息25bp确定性较高)，但“远端”加息路径有变数。如果俄乌局势能很快缓解使得价格影响较为“瞬时”，那么通胀压力改善的大方向仍可期待；而如果这一冲击进一步固化的话，“远端”加息预期的抬升和对利率与市场估值的冲击也需要再度上修。3)期限利差：由于当前避险甚至滞胀担忧交织导致长短端期限利差过快速收窄(此前一度收窄至仅20bp)，因此美联储可能会需要通过缩表来推动长端利率上行以避免过快倒挂(《如果美联储一次加息50bp》)，但是如果通胀持续高企甚至远端通胀比预期的要高得更久更大，那么“曲线倒挂”引发的衰退预期、货币政策两难、企业利润侵蚀、银行板块利润受损等负面影响都可能逐步显现。4)流动性指标的变化：是否存在流动性风险蔓延的迹象。在这一背景下，市场或有修复但依然不排除起伏直到情形明朗，尤其是对俄乌局势敞口大的欧洲和部分抵御风险能力差的新兴市场。但目前主要市场也已经明显超卖，如美股和港股。相反，大宗商品也明显超买，如黄金和石油，其走势高度依赖地缘局势，我们对于从当前高点进一步大幅向上并没有充足把握。如果局势进一步升级，中下游板块和美股银行因为成本抬升和利差走平可能受损，而相反涨价概念(能源和农产品)、避险(如高股息)和稳增长发力对冲或更敏感。（文章来源：中金公司）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159934":0.6,"518880":0.6,".DJI":0.81,".IXIC":0.76,"DDG":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"DUG":0.6,"DUST":0.6,"DWT":0.6,"DWTIF":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"BZmain":0.6,"CLmain":0.9,"GCmain":0.9,"MGCmain":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"QMmain":0.6,"SGCmain":0.6,"SGUmain":0.6,"TNmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"GDX":0.6,"GLD":0.6,"IAU":0.6,"NUGT":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"QID":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SCO":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"UCO":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"USO":0.6,"UWTIF":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2819,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":907084885,"gmtCreate":1561431096247,"gmtModify":1704701917259,"author":{"id":"3495596855940868","authorId":"3495596855940868","name":"JSW","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9197c06de870f3774ea2c2702c64fb2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3495596855940868","authorIdStr":"3495596855940868"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$星巴克(SBUX)$ 应坚守自己的宗旨，不为竞争而砸品牌","listText":"$星巴克(SBUX)$ 应坚守自己的宗旨，不为竞争而砸品牌","text":"$星巴克(SBUX)$ 应坚守自己的宗旨，不为竞争而砸品牌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/907084885","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2035,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":409511051674048,"gmtCreate":1740987917617,"gmtModify":1740988575158,"author":{"id":"3495596855940868","authorId":"3495596855940868","name":"JSW","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9197c06de870f3774ea2c2702c64fb2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3495596855940868","authorIdStr":"3495596855940868"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp; 9.47的成本价算什么？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp; 9.47的成本价算什么？","text":"$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$ 9.47的成本价算什么？","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa3c7ae0e31d82f39241793c4e032bd6","width":"327","height":"545"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/409511051674048","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1502,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":409497577082936,"gmtCreate":1740985116373,"gmtModify":1740990775888,"author":{"id":"3495596855940868","authorId":"3495596855940868","name":"JSW","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9197c06de870f3774ea2c2702c64fb2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3495596855940868","authorIdStr":"3495596855940868"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 小跌小补 大跌大补","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 小跌小补 大跌大补","text":"$小米集团-W(01810)$ 小跌小补 大跌大补","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/409497577082936","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":670,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":635136382,"gmtCreate":1646884870640,"gmtModify":1646884870640,"author":{"id":"3495596855940868","authorId":"3495596855940868","name":"JSW","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9197c06de870f3774ea2c2702c64fb2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3495596855940868","authorIdStr":"3495596855940868"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"老乡别走","listText":"老乡别走","text":"老乡别走","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/635136382","repostId":"2218377412","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2218377412","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1646872980,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2218377412?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-03-10 08:43","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"全球股市大反弹，局势是否就此好转？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2218377412","media":"中金公司","summary":"隔夜全球市场出现“大逆转”。布伦特油价大跌11.7%至110美元/桶附近，欧美股市因此大幅反弹，欧洲股市普遍大涨7~8%，美股主要指数也反弹2%以上，纳斯达克更是大涨3.6%。　　那么，局势是否就此好转？　　解铃还须系铃人，隔夜油价大跌市场反弹修复的一个主要原因。油价大跌则与美国敦促页岩油行业加大供给、以及阿联酋表示将推动OPEC增加石油生产有一定关系。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>经过一轮暴风骤雨式的下跌，全球股市终于出现了止跌迹象，所有的资产表现逻辑都出现了逆转。那么，局势是否就此好转？此前的情形就此得到改善呢？</blockquote><p>隔夜全球市场出现“大逆转”。布伦特油价大跌11.7%至110美元/桶附近，欧美股市因此大幅反弹，欧洲股市普遍大涨7~8%，美股主要指数也反弹2%以上，纳斯达克更是大涨3.6%。不仅如此，黄金大跌重回2000美元以下，而美债利率则冲高升至1.96%。似乎一夜之间，所有的资产表现逻辑都出现了逆转。</p><p>那么，局势是否就此好转？此前的情形就此得到改善呢？结合最新的市场变化，我们点评如下，供投资者参考。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bca86eb3ffdb202070180f4afc804ed\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f005e1b4c8e6ca202adbba9ce28c5aa9\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>首先，核心矛盾依然在能源和大宗商品价格。如我们在《俄乌冲击的第二波：从避险情绪到通胀担忧》中分析，受美国和英国宣布制裁俄罗斯能源进口决定的担忧，国际油价一度飙升至历史新高，叠加其他一些资源品如小麦、有色金属等等因为运输和军事行动导致的事实性供应冲击同样大涨，加重了市场对于通胀甚至滞胀的担忧情绪，市场的交易逻辑也因此发生变化，导致全球市场普跌、避险和抗通胀资产上涨。</p><p>解铃还须系铃人，隔夜油价大跌市场反弹修复的一个主要原因。油价大跌则与美国敦促页岩油行业加大供给、以及阿联酋表示将推动OPEC增加石油生产有一定关系。根据华尔街日报报道，阿联酋有100万桶左右的空闲产能，不过此举并没有得到其他OPEC成员特别是沙特的响应，后续进展仍有待观察。</p><p>其次，短期资产和市场走势依然高度依赖事态进展，供应溢价对于短期价格波动扰动很大。隔夜油价的大幅波动再度成为一个地缘趋势影响资产价格的生动例子。</p><p>此前我们已知且确定的是事实性的供应冲击已经造成，但更重要是究竟是瞬时的上冲、还是会持续维持高位甚至进一步上行。欧美在是否制裁俄罗斯能源出口上存在一定分歧，与其依赖度不同有很大关系，美国从俄罗斯进口的原油只占其总进口的8%不到，俄罗斯对美国和英国的出口比例只占其总出口的2%不到。而欧洲依赖度更高，故没有欧洲的全面加入，制裁效果就会大打折扣，冲高的油价也很难维持。</p><p>相反，如果欧美果真采取严格的制裁措施，进而导致俄罗斯大约700万桶的出口出现巨大缺口，根据我们大宗组估算，各方的供应也可以刚好勉强填补这个“窟窿”(OPEC产量空间300万桶，剩余产能200万桶左右，伊朗100-150万桶，页岩油估算200万桶)，但问题是在能够有效填补之前的溢价上冲可能还是难以避免，更不用说情绪的扰动。这也就是为什么，我们在此前月报《俄乌局势叠加中美政策错位的资产含义海外资产配置月报(2022-03)》和《俄乌冲击的第二波：从避险情绪到通胀担忧》中提示油价已经大幅超买、对于从当前高点进一步大幅向上并没有充足把握，但其短期走势依然高度依赖地缘局势的原因。</p><p>原油的出口结构，以及俄罗斯原油的出口目的地</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14a66838f4318c4fac7680416478e3ed\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>再次，接下来观察什么？制裁、加息路径、期限利差、流动性指标</p><p>给定当前的局面，以及结合我们在《俄乌局势对全球供应链影响有多大？》和《俄乌冲击的第二波：从避险情绪到通胀担忧》中给出的四个层次的传导路径(第一层单纯的避险情绪不足为惧；第二层供给冲击已经发生目前最为显性，但持续时间和强度需要观察，会影响“远端”的加息和通胀路径；第三层的金融流动性短期有一些变化但尚未成为主导；第四层是基本面)，我们认为重点需要观察以下几个因素：</p><p>1)制裁进展：地缘局势特别是能源制裁的动向依然是短期最重要的决定因素。</p><p>2)3月FOMC:即将临近的3月FOMC给出后续货币政策路径(如缩表、点阵图的加息水平)。从目前局势看，“近端”操作上依然会按部就班加息(就业好、通胀依然高；市场预期3月加息25bp确定性较高)，但“远端”加息路径有变数。如果俄乌局势能很快缓解使得价格影响较为“瞬时”，那么通胀压力改善的大方向仍可期待；而如果这一冲击进一步固化的话，“远端”加息预期的抬升和对利率与市场估值的冲击也需要再度上修。</p><p>3)期限利差：由于当前避险甚至滞胀担忧交织导致长短端期限利差过快速收窄(此前一度收窄至仅20bp)，因此美联储可能会需要通过缩表来推动长端利率上行以避免过快倒挂(《如果美联储一次加息50bp》)，但是如果通胀持续高企甚至远端通胀比预期的要高得更久更大，那么“曲线倒挂”引发的衰退预期、货币政策两难、企业利润侵蚀、银行板块利润受损等负面影响都可能逐步显现。</p><p>4)流动性指标的变化：是否存在流动性风险蔓延的迹象。</p><p>在这一背景下，市场或有修复但依然不排除起伏直到情形明朗，尤其是对俄乌局势敞口大的欧洲和部分抵御风险能力差的新兴市场。但目前主要市场也已经明显超卖，如美股和港股。相反，大宗商品也明显超买，如黄金和石油，其走势高度依赖地缘局势，我们对于从当前高点进一步大幅向上并没有充足把握。</p><p>如果局势进一步升级，中下游板块和美股银行因为成本抬升和利差走平可能受损，而相反涨价概念(能源和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000061\">农产品</a>)、避险(如高股息)和稳增长发力对冲或更敏感。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc92ff510f18097e03f898ad818256cb\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e748b31464032930039339642e5c8e68\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"529\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04f97ec43063876c35346a9fe1b8f924\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>（文章来源：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">中金公司</a>）</p></body></html>","source":"eastmoney_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>全球股市大反弹，局势是否就此好转？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n全球股市大反弹，局势是否就此好转？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-10 08:43 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://hk.eastmoney.com/a/202203102303814421_0.html><strong>中金公司</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>经过一轮暴风骤雨式的下跌，全球股市终于出现了止跌迹象，所有的资产表现逻辑都出现了逆转。那么，局势是否就此好转？此前的情形就此得到改善呢？隔夜全球市场出现“大逆转”。布伦特油价大跌11.7%至110美元/桶附近，欧美股市因此大幅反弹，欧洲股市普遍大涨7~8%，美股主要指数也反弹2%以上，纳斯达克更是大涨3.6%。不仅如此，黄金大跌重回2000美元以下，而美债利率则冲高升至1.96%。似乎一夜之间，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://hk.eastmoney.com/a/202203102303814421_0.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80a6820aa909b24349894a430fea43b1","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","518880":"黄金ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","IAU":"黄金信托ETF(iShares)","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","DOG":"道指反向ETF","BK4570":"地缘局势概念股","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","USO":"美国原油ETF","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck",".DJI":"道琼斯","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","GLD":"SPDR黄金ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"http://hk.eastmoney.com/a/202203102303814421_0.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2218377412","content_text":"经过一轮暴风骤雨式的下跌，全球股市终于出现了止跌迹象，所有的资产表现逻辑都出现了逆转。那么，局势是否就此好转？此前的情形就此得到改善呢？隔夜全球市场出现“大逆转”。布伦特油价大跌11.7%至110美元/桶附近，欧美股市因此大幅反弹，欧洲股市普遍大涨7~8%，美股主要指数也反弹2%以上，纳斯达克更是大涨3.6%。不仅如此，黄金大跌重回2000美元以下，而美债利率则冲高升至1.96%。似乎一夜之间，所有的资产表现逻辑都出现了逆转。那么，局势是否就此好转？此前的情形就此得到改善呢？结合最新的市场变化，我们点评如下，供投资者参考。首先，核心矛盾依然在能源和大宗商品价格。如我们在《俄乌冲击的第二波：从避险情绪到通胀担忧》中分析，受美国和英国宣布制裁俄罗斯能源进口决定的担忧，国际油价一度飙升至历史新高，叠加其他一些资源品如小麦、有色金属等等因为运输和军事行动导致的事实性供应冲击同样大涨，加重了市场对于通胀甚至滞胀的担忧情绪，市场的交易逻辑也因此发生变化，导致全球市场普跌、避险和抗通胀资产上涨。解铃还须系铃人，隔夜油价大跌市场反弹修复的一个主要原因。油价大跌则与美国敦促页岩油行业加大供给、以及阿联酋表示将推动OPEC增加石油生产有一定关系。根据华尔街日报报道，阿联酋有100万桶左右的空闲产能，不过此举并没有得到其他OPEC成员特别是沙特的响应，后续进展仍有待观察。其次，短期资产和市场走势依然高度依赖事态进展，供应溢价对于短期价格波动扰动很大。隔夜油价的大幅波动再度成为一个地缘趋势影响资产价格的生动例子。此前我们已知且确定的是事实性的供应冲击已经造成，但更重要是究竟是瞬时的上冲、还是会持续维持高位甚至进一步上行。欧美在是否制裁俄罗斯能源出口上存在一定分歧，与其依赖度不同有很大关系，美国从俄罗斯进口的原油只占其总进口的8%不到，俄罗斯对美国和英国的出口比例只占其总出口的2%不到。而欧洲依赖度更高，故没有欧洲的全面加入，制裁效果就会大打折扣，冲高的油价也很难维持。相反，如果欧美果真采取严格的制裁措施，进而导致俄罗斯大约700万桶的出口出现巨大缺口，根据我们大宗组估算，各方的供应也可以刚好勉强填补这个“窟窿”(OPEC产量空间300万桶，剩余产能200万桶左右，伊朗100-150万桶，页岩油估算200万桶)，但问题是在能够有效填补之前的溢价上冲可能还是难以避免，更不用说情绪的扰动。这也就是为什么，我们在此前月报《俄乌局势叠加中美政策错位的资产含义海外资产配置月报(2022-03)》和《俄乌冲击的第二波：从避险情绪到通胀担忧》中提示油价已经大幅超买、对于从当前高点进一步大幅向上并没有充足把握，但其短期走势依然高度依赖地缘局势的原因。原油的出口结构，以及俄罗斯原油的出口目的地再次，接下来观察什么？制裁、加息路径、期限利差、流动性指标给定当前的局面，以及结合我们在《俄乌局势对全球供应链影响有多大？》和《俄乌冲击的第二波：从避险情绪到通胀担忧》中给出的四个层次的传导路径(第一层单纯的避险情绪不足为惧；第二层供给冲击已经发生目前最为显性，但持续时间和强度需要观察，会影响“远端”的加息和通胀路径；第三层的金融流动性短期有一些变化但尚未成为主导；第四层是基本面)，我们认为重点需要观察以下几个因素：1)制裁进展：地缘局势特别是能源制裁的动向依然是短期最重要的决定因素。2)3月FOMC:即将临近的3月FOMC给出后续货币政策路径(如缩表、点阵图的加息水平)。从目前局势看，“近端”操作上依然会按部就班加息(就业好、通胀依然高；市场预期3月加息25bp确定性较高)，但“远端”加息路径有变数。如果俄乌局势能很快缓解使得价格影响较为“瞬时”，那么通胀压力改善的大方向仍可期待；而如果这一冲击进一步固化的话，“远端”加息预期的抬升和对利率与市场估值的冲击也需要再度上修。3)期限利差：由于当前避险甚至滞胀担忧交织导致长短端期限利差过快速收窄(此前一度收窄至仅20bp)，因此美联储可能会需要通过缩表来推动长端利率上行以避免过快倒挂(《如果美联储一次加息50bp》)，但是如果通胀持续高企甚至远端通胀比预期的要高得更久更大，那么“曲线倒挂”引发的衰退预期、货币政策两难、企业利润侵蚀、银行板块利润受损等负面影响都可能逐步显现。4)流动性指标的变化：是否存在流动性风险蔓延的迹象。在这一背景下，市场或有修复但依然不排除起伏直到情形明朗，尤其是对俄乌局势敞口大的欧洲和部分抵御风险能力差的新兴市场。但目前主要市场也已经明显超卖，如美股和港股。相反，大宗商品也明显超买，如黄金和石油，其走势高度依赖地缘局势，我们对于从当前高点进一步大幅向上并没有充足把握。如果局势进一步升级，中下游板块和美股银行因为成本抬升和利差走平可能受损，而相反涨价概念(能源和农产品)、避险(如高股息)和稳增长发力对冲或更敏感。（文章来源：中金公司）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159934":0.6,"518880":0.6,".DJI":0.81,".IXIC":0.76,"DDG":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"DUG":0.6,"DUST":0.6,"DWT":0.6,"DWTIF":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"BZmain":0.6,"CLmain":0.9,"GCmain":0.9,"MGCmain":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"QMmain":0.6,"SGCmain":0.6,"SGUmain":0.6,"TNmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"GDX":0.6,"GLD":0.6,"IAU":0.6,"NUGT":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"QID":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SCO":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"UCO":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"USO":0.6,"UWTIF":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2819,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":907084885,"gmtCreate":1561431096247,"gmtModify":1704701917259,"author":{"id":"3495596855940868","authorId":"3495596855940868","name":"JSW","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9197c06de870f3774ea2c2702c64fb2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3495596855940868","authorIdStr":"3495596855940868"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$星巴克(SBUX)$ 应坚守自己的宗旨，不为竞争而砸品牌","listText":"$星巴克(SBUX)$ 应坚守自己的宗旨，不为竞争而砸品牌","text":"$星巴克(SBUX)$ 应坚守自己的宗旨，不为竞争而砸品牌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/907084885","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2035,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":409510682505664,"gmtCreate":1740987827487,"gmtModify":1740988550245,"author":{"id":"3495596855940868","authorId":"3495596855940868","name":"JSW","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9197c06de870f3774ea2c2702c64fb2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3495596855940868","authorIdStr":"3495596855940868"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02097\">$蜜雪集团(02097)$</a> 拉倒 撤退吧","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02097\">$蜜雪集团(02097)$</a> 拉倒 撤退吧","text":"$蜜雪集团(02097)$ 拉倒 撤退吧","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0196e955790b47ada9341e21d7294b2","width":"327","height":"545"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/409510682505664","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":701,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":305856374534328,"gmtCreate":1715706536622,"gmtModify":1715707412919,"author":{"id":"3495596855940868","authorId":"3495596855940868","name":"JSW","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9197c06de870f3774ea2c2702c64fb2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3495596855940868","authorIdStr":"3495596855940868"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 有毒吧","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 有毒吧","text":"$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 有毒吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/305856374534328","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1725,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}