王天山的个人主页 - 老虎社区

王天山

王天山

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IP属地：广东

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2023-08-08

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 甘薇看了一眼股价，哭哭啼啼的找许家印去了

2023-06-06

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$

2023-05-31

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 乐傻们，一片寂静无声……一摸都凉了！

2023-05-31

不行了，乐傻已经窒息了！速进 lcu

2023-05-31

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 乐傻一片安静……

2022-11-19

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 贾勾世界第一画饼家！

2022-11-07

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$每天收盘打回原形。

2022-11-07

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$还有6个月就要退市了！别听乐傻们的自我施肥疗法！

2022-11-07

贾总的画饼技术也达到天庭水平

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-11-05

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$要求退市了？

2022-11-04

画饼届的天花板

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-11-04

画饼届的天花板

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-11-04

画饼届的天花板、跟共学的

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-08-11

做空进行时

2022-08-04

$满帮(YMM)$全仓做空、吸血公司早早关门

2022-08-04

吸血公司早早关门！

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-05-11

$MacroGenics Inc.(MGNX)$刚做空有汤喝吗

2020-05-08

$美国钢铁(X)$比没疫情股价都高，看不懂

2020-05-08

熔断的时候要来了

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-05-07

$赫兹(HTZ)$被收购了，拉了

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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乐傻一片安静……","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/182404420632664","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2355,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4124318481312602","authorId":"4124318481312602","name":"亲爱的苏东坡","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d60b7f314a0b1b2a71bc5431f2b11c5","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4124318481312602","authorIdStr":"4124318481312602"},"content":"涨捧跌踩，那是不是等下涨起来就可以喷你了，股票涨跌不是很正常，看中期趋势","text":"涨捧跌踩，那是不是等下涨起来就可以喷你了，股票涨跌不是很正常，看中期趋势","html":"涨捧跌踩，那是不是等下涨起来就可以喷你了，股票涨跌不是很正常，看中期趋势"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":667292798,"gmtCreate":1668809604714,"gmtModify":1668809605585,"author":{"id":"3496435635261509","authorId":"3496435635261509","name":"王天山","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/976d3f99f47e81271eefa68a059b8a70","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3496435635261509","authorIdStr":"3496435635261509"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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09:38","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"预期低至-2200万的非农要来了！市场这次会有何反应？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151018998","media":"金十数据","summary":"非农就业数据的表现，将揭示美国近90%经济部门的产出状况，其重要程度不言而喻。4月非农新增就业人口想必会继续大幅下滑，问题在于各大市场又将出现怎样的波动？\n01、日程提醒\n周五20:30，美国将公布4","content":"<p>非农就业数据的表现，将揭示美国近90%经济部门的产出状况，其重要程度不言而喻。4月非农新增就业人口想必会继续大幅下滑，问题在于各大市场又将出现怎样的波动？</p>\n<p><b><span>01、</span></b><b><span><u>日程提醒</u></span></b></p>\n<p>周五20:30，美国将公布4月非农就业数据和失业率。新增非农就业人数的前值为-70.1万人，预期值为<b><u>-2200万人</u></b>；失业率前值为4.4%，市场预期为16%。</p>\n<p>周三晚间公布的4月ADP就业人数减少2023.6万人，降幅高于预期的2005万人，前值也由-2.7万下修至-14.9万人。这进一步预示非农就业数据表现堪忧。</p>\n<p><b><span>02、</span></b><b><span><u>精选分析</u></span></b></p>\n<p><b><span>▶&nbsp;-2200万的非农是如何诞生的？</span></b></p>\n<p>虽然美国各州已经开始逐步解封，但经济产出不会马上恢复，就业市场的反弹也不会马上到来。市场之所以预期非农就业人数狂减2200万，主要是出于对以下几个因素的综合考虑。</p>\n<p><b><span><u>第一，服务业、制造业等关键行业的就业岗位呈断崖式下滑。</u></span></b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <p>以服务业为例，美国供应管理协会（ISM）周二公布的调查数据显示，<b>服务业就业指数下降至30，衡量企业活动、新订单和就业的指标上月均跌至1997年以来的低点。</b>该协会非制造业企业调查委员会主席Anthony Nieves表示，文娱产业、零售业的萎缩程度最为惊人，而零售业恰恰是美国最重要的经济部门之一。</p>\n <p>更令人担忧的是，ISM上周公布的制造业就业数据同样跌至历史低谷。</p>\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9e6daef89cbd67b89a6520c7556a037\"></p>\n<p><b><span><u>第二，作为就业市场的即时指标，初请失业金人数的表现依旧惨淡。</u></span></b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <p>数据显示，<b>过去七周美国初请失业金人数分别录得328.3万、664.8万、660.6万、524.5万、442.7万、384.6万和316.9万，</b>自攀上660万的高峰后便整体呈递减趋势，但实际数据相当惊人。合计超过3000万人申请失业救济也就意味着，16%的美国劳动力存在就业困难。</p>\n <p>调查机构盖洛普在4月13日至19日进行的一项民意调查发现，10%的美国人因感染了冠状病毒而暂时失去了工作，2%的美国公民认为自己“永久性地”失去了工作；另有26%的雇员表示他们的收入减少了，15%的在职员工称工作时间明显缩短。</p>\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6c438f33ce6193f7fa1c67aa6b2238a\"></p>\n<p><b><span><u>第三，美国经济贡献率最高的几个州（比如加州），都是受疫情的重灾区。</u></span></b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <p>据华尔街日报报道，作为美国重要的经济中心，纽约受疫情影响相当严重。仅仅是布鲁克林一个区，就有数百万人面临失业威胁。另据Sierra Sun Times报道，加州的失业率在3月底已上升到5.3%，非农就业岗位削减了99500个。</p>\n</blockquote>\n<p>不过华尔街日报也指出，由于统计数据的方式存在差异，<b>非农就业数据和失业率的时效性没有每周公布的初请失业金人数那么高，</b>所以相关数据不一定能代表美国最新的就业状况。</p>\n<p>高盛则指出，<b><span>劳工部的一项名为U-6的统计数据，可能更能体现美国就业市场的现状。</span></b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <p>据悉，该数据统计的是包括实时失业人员、有兼职工作但仍想找全职工作的雇员以及长期无法找到工作的求职者的总人数。高盛经济学家预测，<b>这一数据占美国劳动力总人口的比例可能会飙升到29%，远高于2007-09年经济衰退后创造的峰值17.2%，</b>更能体现近期的就业形势。</p>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b><span>▶&nbsp;别忽视这些重要指标</span></b></p>\n<p>AXIOS网站分析师Dion Rabouin指出，美国4月非农就业数据出现前所未有的巨大萎缩基本是毋庸置疑的，因为仅仅7周内就有超过3000万人申请失业救济。但这并不说明该报告无看点，预计其将提供一些关键指引，为美国经济复苏前景提供重要的参考。</p>\n<p>Dion Rabouin强调，<b>除了新增非农就业人数和失业率之外，一些在就业报告中未曾提及的数据和指标也非常重要。</b></p>\n<p><b><span><u>第一，有多少未被计入新增非农就业人数的工人仍与雇主有联系。</u></span></b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <p>这方面的数据外界很难从政府的官方统计中得到了解，但相关数据对于就业市场的复苏速度有很强的指示性。AXIOS的调查发现，在那些被解雇的工人中，<b>85%的人认为一旦危机结束，他们将“有可能”重返工作岗位，60%的人认为“很有可能”重新得到工作。</b></p>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b><span><u>第二，平均时薪和薪资增长速度的变化趋势。</u></span></b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <p>美国银行全球研究分析师预计，<b>4月份美国平均每周工作时间将跌至33.5小时，创下历史新低。</b>不过，随着整体薪资水平在3月份已跌至谷底，4月薪资水平或出现1.0%（月度）或3.9%（年度）的复合增长率。但薪资增长并不代表就业市场彻底回暖，投资者不要过度乐观。</p>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b><span><u>第三，就业市场的新趋势。</u></span></b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <p>根据劳工统计局的最新报告，<b>2月至3月间，因工作机会减少以及工作条件恶化，从事兼职工作的工人人数增加了130万，增幅达46%。</b></p>\n <p>Dion Rabouin认为，由于大部分企业在疫情期间损失惨重，所以哪怕经济重启后这些企业也不会马上恢复以往的招聘规模，更不大可能增加额外的工作岗位——因为它们将尽一切可能节省支出，以留出应对下一次危机的流动资金。有鉴于此，成本相对较低的兼职员工需求可能会越来越大，这将改变就业市场的格局。</p>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b><span><u>第四，政府救助法案的实施效果。</u></span></b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <p>据外媒报道，有小企业主抱怨道，政府的中小企业援助计划设计得很糟糕，而且由于失业人数的增加和政府福利支出的负担加剧，相关救助计划可能会逐步缩水。</p>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b><span><u>第五，就业人口比例。</u></span></b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <p>华尔街日报分析称，就业人口占美国总人口的比例是体现美国就业市场潜力和增长前景的重要指标。数据显示，这一比例在1月份达到衰退后的峰值61.2%，3月份降至60%。分析认为，该数据可能在4月份继续萎缩，这也意味着美国将出现大量的剩余劳动力，这会给社会管理和治安带来一定压力。</p>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b><span>▶&nbsp;市场反应预测：美元不为所动，黄金、美股或有异动</span></b></p>\n<p>和3月份非农数据出炉前类似，在长达一个月的等待中，无数分析师已经为这份可能是史上最糟糕的非农就业报告作了充分预热，所以数据最终出来那一刻，市场恐怕不会有太多异动。不过具体来看，不同市场的反应程度可能会不太一样。</p>\n<p><b><span>美元</span></b><b>如今涨势凌厉，就算大小非农齐齐爆雷，恐怕也难以打压其涨势。</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <p>摩根大通驻伦敦的外汇策略师保罗•麦格耶西（Paul Meggyesi）和梅拉•钱丹（Meera Chandan）表示，<b>地缘政治冲突和贸易局势的变化正在巩固美元的涨势，</b>相比之下，黄金和美股更可能出现异动。</p>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b><span>黄金</span></b><b>最有可能成为新增非农就业人数暴跌的受益者。</b></p>\n<p>FX Empire分析师David Becker指出，虽然现货黄金目前的交投区间比较狭窄，但由于对冲基金仍在继续多黄金期货和期权，<b>黄金价格隐含波动率（Gold implied volatility）在周二收盘收升至24%，运行于近期高位。</b>波动率的上升意味着金价在未来可能出现更大起伏，而大小非农最有可能成为触发金价大涨或暴跌的导火索。</p>\n<p>从技术面来看，黄金周线图正在构建上升三角楔形，金价可能在近期试探4月份创造的近期高位1747美元。周四因市场预期美国恐出现负利率，两年期和五年期美债收益率因此再创历史新低，金价也连破三大关口一度上破1720美元。非农的糟糕表现或将助推金价进一步上行。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3de59973d5af8bc397ba31734a822c0a\"></p>\n<p>和欣欣向荣的金市相反，<b><span>股市</span></b><b>继续遭到华尔街一众大佬的唱衰。</b>路透在4月16-30日对北美、欧洲和日本的34位基金经理进行的调查显示，<b>基金经理们建议投资者将股票在投资组合模型中的占比从3月的45.9%削减至45.1%，为近七个月来最低水平</b>。</p>\n<p>分析认为，和韧劲十足的美元不同，美股的抗风险性并不强，投机资本随时可能因一些风吹草动而大规模撤出股市，投资者切不可轻视大小非农的威力。</p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>预期低至-2200万的非农要来了！市场这次会有何反应？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n预期低至-2200万的非农要来了！市场这次会有何反应？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-05-08 09:38 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/details/59661><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>非农就业数据的表现，将揭示美国近90%经济部门的产出状况，其重要程度不言而喻。4月非农新增就业人口想必会继续大幅下滑，问题在于各大市场又将出现怎样的波动？\n01、日程提醒\n周五20:30，美国将公布4月非农就业数据和失业率。新增非农就业人数的前值为-70.1万人，预期值为-2200万人；失业率前值为4.4%，市场预期为16%。\n周三晚间公布的4月ADP就业人数减少2023.6万人，降幅高于预期的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/59661\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52e6e6d04d9823325064d60aa26462e","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/59661","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151018998","content_text":"非农就业数据的表现，将揭示美国近90%经济部门的产出状况，其重要程度不言而喻。4月非农新增就业人口想必会继续大幅下滑，问题在于各大市场又将出现怎样的波动？\n01、日程提醒\n周五20:30，美国将公布4月非农就业数据和失业率。新增非农就业人数的前值为-70.1万人，预期值为-2200万人；失业率前值为4.4%，市场预期为16%。\n周三晚间公布的4月ADP就业人数减少2023.6万人，降幅高于预期的2005万人，前值也由-2.7万下修至-14.9万人。这进一步预示非农就业数据表现堪忧。\n02、精选分析\n▶ -2200万的非农是如何诞生的？\n虽然美国各州已经开始逐步解封，但经济产出不会马上恢复，就业市场的反弹也不会马上到来。市场之所以预期非农就业人数狂减2200万，主要是出于对以下几个因素的综合考虑。\n第一，服务业、制造业等关键行业的就业岗位呈断崖式下滑。\n\n以服务业为例，美国供应管理协会（ISM）周二公布的调查数据显示，服务业就业指数下降至30，衡量企业活动、新订单和就业的指标上月均跌至1997年以来的低点。该协会非制造业企业调查委员会主席Anthony Nieves表示，文娱产业、零售业的萎缩程度最为惊人，而零售业恰恰是美国最重要的经济部门之一。\n更令人担忧的是，ISM上周公布的制造业就业数据同样跌至历史低谷。\n\n\n第二，作为就业市场的即时指标，初请失业金人数的表现依旧惨淡。\n\n数据显示，过去七周美国初请失业金人数分别录得328.3万、664.8万、660.6万、524.5万、442.7万、384.6万和316.9万，自攀上660万的高峰后便整体呈递减趋势，但实际数据相当惊人。合计超过3000万人申请失业救济也就意味着，16%的美国劳动力存在就业困难。\n调查机构盖洛普在4月13日至19日进行的一项民意调查发现，10%的美国人因感染了冠状病毒而暂时失去了工作，2%的美国公民认为自己“永久性地”失去了工作；另有26%的雇员表示他们的收入减少了，15%的在职员工称工作时间明显缩短。\n\n\n第三，美国经济贡献率最高的几个州（比如加州），都是受疫情的重灾区。\n\n据华尔街日报报道，作为美国重要的经济中心，纽约受疫情影响相当严重。仅仅是布鲁克林一个区，就有数百万人面临失业威胁。另据Sierra Sun Times报道，加州的失业率在3月底已上升到5.3%，非农就业岗位削减了99500个。\n\n不过华尔街日报也指出，由于统计数据的方式存在差异，非农就业数据和失业率的时效性没有每周公布的初请失业金人数那么高，所以相关数据不一定能代表美国最新的就业状况。\n高盛则指出，劳工部的一项名为U-6的统计数据，可能更能体现美国就业市场的现状。\n\n据悉，该数据统计的是包括实时失业人员、有兼职工作但仍想找全职工作的雇员以及长期无法找到工作的求职者的总人数。高盛经济学家预测，这一数据占美国劳动力总人口的比例可能会飙升到29%，远高于2007-09年经济衰退后创造的峰值17.2%，更能体现近期的就业形势。\n\n▶ 别忽视这些重要指标\nAXIOS网站分析师Dion Rabouin指出，美国4月非农就业数据出现前所未有的巨大萎缩基本是毋庸置疑的，因为仅仅7周内就有超过3000万人申请失业救济。但这并不说明该报告无看点，预计其将提供一些关键指引，为美国经济复苏前景提供重要的参考。\nDion Rabouin强调，除了新增非农就业人数和失业率之外，一些在就业报告中未曾提及的数据和指标也非常重要。\n第一，有多少未被计入新增非农就业人数的工人仍与雇主有联系。\n\n这方面的数据外界很难从政府的官方统计中得到了解，但相关数据对于就业市场的复苏速度有很强的指示性。AXIOS的调查发现，在那些被解雇的工人中，85%的人认为一旦危机结束，他们将“有可能”重返工作岗位，60%的人认为“很有可能”重新得到工作。\n\n第二，平均时薪和薪资增长速度的变化趋势。\n\n美国银行全球研究分析师预计，4月份美国平均每周工作时间将跌至33.5小时，创下历史新低。不过，随着整体薪资水平在3月份已跌至谷底，4月薪资水平或出现1.0%（月度）或3.9%（年度）的复合增长率。但薪资增长并不代表就业市场彻底回暖，投资者不要过度乐观。\n\n第三，就业市场的新趋势。\n\n根据劳工统计局的最新报告，2月至3月间，因工作机会减少以及工作条件恶化，从事兼职工作的工人人数增加了130万，增幅达46%。\nDion Rabouin认为，由于大部分企业在疫情期间损失惨重，所以哪怕经济重启后这些企业也不会马上恢复以往的招聘规模，更不大可能增加额外的工作岗位——因为它们将尽一切可能节省支出，以留出应对下一次危机的流动资金。有鉴于此，成本相对较低的兼职员工需求可能会越来越大，这将改变就业市场的格局。\n\n第四，政府救助法案的实施效果。\n\n据外媒报道，有小企业主抱怨道，政府的中小企业援助计划设计得很糟糕，而且由于失业人数的增加和政府福利支出的负担加剧，相关救助计划可能会逐步缩水。\n\n第五，就业人口比例。\n\n华尔街日报分析称，就业人口占美国总人口的比例是体现美国就业市场潜力和增长前景的重要指标。数据显示，这一比例在1月份达到衰退后的峰值61.2%，3月份降至60%。分析认为，该数据可能在4月份继续萎缩，这也意味着美国将出现大量的剩余劳动力，这会给社会管理和治安带来一定压力。\n\n▶ 市场反应预测：美元不为所动，黄金、美股或有异动\n和3月份非农数据出炉前类似，在长达一个月的等待中，无数分析师已经为这份可能是史上最糟糕的非农就业报告作了充分预热，所以数据最终出来那一刻，市场恐怕不会有太多异动。不过具体来看，不同市场的反应程度可能会不太一样。\n美元如今涨势凌厉，就算大小非农齐齐爆雷，恐怕也难以打压其涨势。\n\n摩根大通驻伦敦的外汇策略师保罗•麦格耶西（Paul Meggyesi）和梅拉•钱丹（Meera Chandan）表示，地缘政治冲突和贸易局势的变化正在巩固美元的涨势，相比之下，黄金和美股更可能出现异动。\n\n黄金最有可能成为新增非农就业人数暴跌的受益者。\nFX Empire分析师David Becker指出，虽然现货黄金目前的交投区间比较狭窄，但由于对冲基金仍在继续多黄金期货和期权，黄金价格隐含波动率（Gold implied volatility）在周二收盘收升至24%，运行于近期高位。波动率的上升意味着金价在未来可能出现更大起伏，而大小非农最有可能成为触发金价大涨或暴跌的导火索。\n从技术面来看，黄金周线图正在构建上升三角楔形，金价可能在近期试探4月份创造的近期高位1747美元。周四因市场预期美国恐出现负利率，两年期和五年期美债收益率因此再创历史新低，金价也连破三大关口一度上破1720美元。非农的糟糕表现或将助推金价进一步上行。\n\n和欣欣向荣的金市相反，股市继续遭到华尔街一众大佬的唱衰。路透在4月16-30日对北美、欧洲和日本的34位基金经理进行的调查显示，基金经理们建议投资者将股票在投资组合模型中的占比从3月的45.9%削减至45.1%，为近七个月来最低水平。\n分析认为，和韧劲十足的美元不同，美股的抗风险性并不强，投机资本随时可能因一些风吹草动而大规模撤出股市，投资者切不可轻视大小非农的威力。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2334,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":922460255,"gmtCreate":1587644305977,"gmtModify":1704365062550,"author":{"id":"3496435635261509","authorId":"3496435635261509","name":"王天山","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/976d3f99f47e81271eefa68a059b8a70","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3496435635261509","authorIdStr":"3496435635261509"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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