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jackyu
2023-10-20
$瑞幸咖啡(LKNCY)$
luckin营销能力太强了。仿冒周边都卖爆了
jackyu
2023-07-01
$高通(QCOM)$
看明年2季度... 高通很有机会
jackyu
2023-06-01
$英伟达(NVDA)$ 看多 我2月份就说过 nvda无法取代。作为ai行业从业者,我敢说这回ai绝对不是炒作。绝对是工业革命级的。。 nvda为什么想象力大?,因为ai可能取代的可能是劳动力啊。而且我觉得取代一部分白领也就是2-3年的事。。 为什么这么说呢? 就拿现在gpt4来说,现在除了没法输入图片和context的问题。写代码的能力,debug能力,绝大数情况下已经比我强了。。。(多模态输入能力在openai内部已经ok了,只是算力原因没向公众开放。) 我觉得openai在未来2-3年肯定会解决这些问题。 chatgpt plus里的gpt4因为算力问题,4个小时只能发25条消息。你还认为nvda是泡沫吗?
jackyu
2023-04-15
$奈雪的茶(02150)$
我他么买杯奶茶店里没几个人 4个人等了一个小时 最后我催店员速度快一点 店员二话不说直接给我退了... 我在那边数 制作的速度差不多是5分钟一杯速度... (现在还在搞那套磨磨唧唧好像制造排队的假象).. 这客单价 出杯速度 ,跟瑞幸比差太远了... 祝奈雪早日倒闭...
jackyu
2023-02-24
目前来讲chatgpt 这么火热,可供选择的标的 我觉得只有
$英伟达(NVDA)$
。 1.Nvidia的cuda现在在AI界几乎垄断,且短时间无法替代。 2.现在AI行业对算力的需求远超算力产能...当然还有IO(训练侧其实目前主要是IO瓶颈。)。 3.不要觉得现在train一次gpt3.5, 10-20m刀很便宜。要知道text2text类的纯文本nlp任务其实是相对计算量需求较少的业务。后面夸模态,多模态模型才是重头戏,什么时候chatgpt可能看懂图片,看懂视频,音频,不仅能输出文字,还能输出图片,音频,操作状态甚至输出模拟计算机外设键盘鼠标等,这才是真正的革命。而这一切现在的算力起码需要增长几个数量级才能打到。现在整个互联网的VC基本都在涌向这个赛道,而且算力成本的下降速度远比不上增长速度(起码未来5-10年内是这样的。) 4.就算云端推理侧,目前t4 v100 a100仍然是主流的选择,即便是google针对自家tensorflow框架优化的tpuv4,相比于a100也仅仅便宜20%(其实这玩意除了google根本没人用),起码短时间2-3年 这个格局不会改变。 5.车载、自动驾驶这块, 高端方案基本清一色是nvidia orin ,问了几个做自动驾驶的朋友。这一块除了特斯拉,基本也是没有对手...... 而且nvidia的方案极易部署,模型train完量化好基本可以直接挪到板子上跑 不用考虑算子兼容之类的问题。
jackyu
2022-11-14
$图森未来(TSP)$
比ftt稍微好一点
jackyu
2022-06-16
$新东方在线(01797)$
搞不好新东方要做电商了
jackyu
2022-02-25
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$
真会隐藏利润...真的狗
jackyu
2022-02-01
$瑞幸咖啡(LKNCY)$
麻痹 过年回家 三线城市的小镇上瑞辛下午2点已经800多单了.
jackyu
2021-09-29
$欧科云链(01499)$
据说被诏安了?
jackyu
2021-09-17
$TuSimple Holdings Inc.(TSP)$
如果无人驾驶卡车 还是需要人盯 不能实现l5的话 (没有安全员完全无人的l5 在有生之年显然是不可能的) 那就是卵用没有 对于卡车企业反正都要消耗一个人力。
jackyu
2021-09-16
$瑞幸咖啡(LKNCY)$
我仔细调研了一下瑞辛的市场占有率 自去年5月以来就一直超越星巴克.... 我现在怀疑瑞幸自爆财务造假是借势洗盘...
jackyu
2021-07-10
$瑞幸咖啡(LKNCY)$
握好筹码,逢低加仓
jackyu
2021-07-08
每次都说暴跌..
美股或将暴跌50%!?
jackyu
2021-01-28
$诺基亚(NOK)$
wsb进场了.隔壁gamestop不知道怎么收场
jackyu
2020-04-21
$FUT:WTI原油2006(CL2006)$ 6月肯定空啊 毫无悬念
jackyu
2020-04-14
cfd可以试试
@可爱猫咪:
$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$
请文大神高手,大家都知道原油会上40,那么买什么样的原油产品最好?不像工行一样会因为交割出现费用,不像基金一样估值出现高估,还能长期持有的,谢谢!你的回答可以帮助到好多其他像我一样的新手菜鸟。
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17:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股或将暴跌50%!?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184960808","media":"英为财情Investing","summary":"英为财情Investing.com –曾准确预测2000年和2020年崩盘行情的RIA Advisors首席投资策略师罗伯茨近期再度放出豪言:美股将暴跌50%!\n罗伯茨认为,虽然现在很难判断美股见顶的","content":"<p><b>英为财情Investing.com –</b>曾准确预测2000年和2020年崩盘行情的RIA Advisors首席投资策略师罗伯茨近期再度放出豪言:美股将暴跌50%!</p>\n<p>罗伯茨认为,虽然现在很难判断美股见顶的准确时间,但是不可否认的是,市场已经非常接近顶部了。见顶的催化剂可能会是美联储缩减资产购买计划的速度将快过市场预期。一旦市场的重大回撤真的发生了,其跌幅就可能达到50%。</p>\n<p>他在最近的一篇文章中写道,尽管主要股指处于创纪录高位,但股市的估值仍处于历史最高水平;所谓的“巴菲特指标”,即股市总市值与GDP之比也处于历史高位;家庭股票持有量与个人可支配收入的比率也接近历史最高水平,这些指标的水平都堪比历史上每一次泡沫时期的水平。</p>\n<p>一些人们谈论更少的、不为人知的指标也显示出过度扩张的迹象。例如,芝加哥期权交易所的Skew 指数、Bespoke的非理性繁荣指数等。</p>\n<p><b>美股真的被高估了吗?</b></p>\n<p>拿道琼斯工业平均指数数来举例,从去年3月份的低点18213.65,一路冲高到了今年5月份35091.56的高点,截止6月底收盘涨幅高达79.94%。从更大的周期来看,从2008年金融危机之后,道琼斯指数从6440.08的低点一路飞跃到5月份的高点35091.56,涨幅高达388.88%。</p>\n<p>除了2020年美股出现一个较大幅度的回落外,基本上美国股市连续上涨了11年之久。市场上甚至出现了很多段子来形容美股的疯狂,比如:世界上没有什么东西是可以只涨不跌的,除了美股;最坚固的火炮不是用钛合金打造,而是美股等。毫无疑问,美股的疯涨暗藏了泡沫,美股的估值确实有部分被高估了。</p>\n<p><b>泡沫会破吗?</b></p>\n<p>罗伯茨认为美联储缩的表速度可能比市场预期的要快,美联储的加息进程可能导致美股泡沫的破裂。美联储最近一次的利率决议上调了通胀预期,并暗示将在2023年底前加息两次,比此前预期的时间点确实略有提前。</p>\n<p>但是美国最近的一次非农就业报告显示,虽然就业人数大增85万人表现抢眼,但是美国失业率和薪资增速表现不佳,周二美国公布的6月ISM非制造业指数从64降至60.1,不仅低于预期,而且创下4个月新低,表明美国服务业增长正在放缓。令人失望的美国数据令投资者质疑其缩减购债规模的时机,并排除了短期内加息的可能性。</p>\n<p>我们须要重点关注周四凌晨02:00美联储公布的货币政策会议纪要,投资者可以从中寻找美联储缩减资产购买规模的蛛丝马迹。</p>\n<p><b>总结</b></p>\n<p>短期内,美股的泡沫可能还会继续下去,因为宽松的政策令巨量的资金涌入市场,短期内特别是疫情期间这一状况恐将难以改变。不过,正如罗伯茨所警告的那样,美联储不论未来什么时候缩减资产购买规模或者加息,那一天终将会到来。这对股市将造成巨大的冲击。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股或将暴跌50%!?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股或将暴跌50%!?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/92\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/406e2b4996e14cd8a66a2a6864ef4313);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">英为财情Investing </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-07 17:42</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>英为财情Investing.com –</b>曾准确预测2000年和2020年崩盘行情的RIA Advisors首席投资策略师罗伯茨近期再度放出豪言:美股将暴跌50%!</p>\n<p>罗伯茨认为,虽然现在很难判断美股见顶的准确时间,但是不可否认的是,市场已经非常接近顶部了。见顶的催化剂可能会是美联储缩减资产购买计划的速度将快过市场预期。一旦市场的重大回撤真的发生了,其跌幅就可能达到50%。</p>\n<p>他在最近的一篇文章中写道,尽管主要股指处于创纪录高位,但股市的估值仍处于历史最高水平;所谓的“巴菲特指标”,即股市总市值与GDP之比也处于历史高位;家庭股票持有量与个人可支配收入的比率也接近历史最高水平,这些指标的水平都堪比历史上每一次泡沫时期的水平。</p>\n<p>一些人们谈论更少的、不为人知的指标也显示出过度扩张的迹象。例如,芝加哥期权交易所的Skew 指数、Bespoke的非理性繁荣指数等。</p>\n<p><b>美股真的被高估了吗?</b></p>\n<p>拿道琼斯工业平均指数数来举例,从去年3月份的低点18213.65,一路冲高到了今年5月份35091.56的高点,截止6月底收盘涨幅高达79.94%。从更大的周期来看,从2008年金融危机之后,道琼斯指数从6440.08的低点一路飞跃到5月份的高点35091.56,涨幅高达388.88%。</p>\n<p>除了2020年美股出现一个较大幅度的回落外,基本上美国股市连续上涨了11年之久。市场上甚至出现了很多段子来形容美股的疯狂,比如:世界上没有什么东西是可以只涨不跌的,除了美股;最坚固的火炮不是用钛合金打造,而是美股等。毫无疑问,美股的疯涨暗藏了泡沫,美股的估值确实有部分被高估了。</p>\n<p><b>泡沫会破吗?</b></p>\n<p>罗伯茨认为美联储缩的表速度可能比市场预期的要快,美联储的加息进程可能导致美股泡沫的破裂。美联储最近一次的利率决议上调了通胀预期,并暗示将在2023年底前加息两次,比此前预期的时间点确实略有提前。</p>\n<p>但是美国最近的一次非农就业报告显示,虽然就业人数大增85万人表现抢眼,但是美国失业率和薪资增速表现不佳,周二美国公布的6月ISM非制造业指数从64降至60.1,不仅低于预期,而且创下4个月新低,表明美国服务业增长正在放缓。令人失望的美国数据令投资者质疑其缩减购债规模的时机,并排除了短期内加息的可能性。</p>\n<p>我们须要重点关注周四凌晨02:00美联储公布的货币政策会议纪要,投资者可以从中寻找美联储缩减资产购买规模的蛛丝马迹。</p>\n<p><b>总结</b></p>\n<p>短期内,美股的泡沫可能还会继续下去,因为宽松的政策令巨量的资金涌入市场,短期内特别是疫情期间这一状况恐将难以改变。不过,正如罗伯茨所警告的那样,美联储不论未来什么时候缩减资产购买规模或者加息,那一天终将会到来。这对股市将造成巨大的冲击。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6598d6db9f81e2e547af5cbf95f0c26f","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184960808","content_text":"英为财情Investing.com –曾准确预测2000年和2020年崩盘行情的RIA Advisors首席投资策略师罗伯茨近期再度放出豪言:美股将暴跌50%!\n罗伯茨认为,虽然现在很难判断美股见顶的准确时间,但是不可否认的是,市场已经非常接近顶部了。见顶的催化剂可能会是美联储缩减资产购买计划的速度将快过市场预期。一旦市场的重大回撤真的发生了,其跌幅就可能达到50%。\n他在最近的一篇文章中写道,尽管主要股指处于创纪录高位,但股市的估值仍处于历史最高水平;所谓的“巴菲特指标”,即股市总市值与GDP之比也处于历史高位;家庭股票持有量与个人可支配收入的比率也接近历史最高水平,这些指标的水平都堪比历史上每一次泡沫时期的水平。\n一些人们谈论更少的、不为人知的指标也显示出过度扩张的迹象。例如,芝加哥期权交易所的Skew 指数、Bespoke的非理性繁荣指数等。\n美股真的被高估了吗?\n拿道琼斯工业平均指数数来举例,从去年3月份的低点18213.65,一路冲高到了今年5月份35091.56的高点,截止6月底收盘涨幅高达79.94%。从更大的周期来看,从2008年金融危机之后,道琼斯指数从6440.08的低点一路飞跃到5月份的高点35091.56,涨幅高达388.88%。\n除了2020年美股出现一个较大幅度的回落外,基本上美国股市连续上涨了11年之久。市场上甚至出现了很多段子来形容美股的疯狂,比如:世界上没有什么东西是可以只涨不跌的,除了美股;最坚固的火炮不是用钛合金打造,而是美股等。毫无疑问,美股的疯涨暗藏了泡沫,美股的估值确实有部分被高估了。\n泡沫会破吗?\n罗伯茨认为美联储缩的表速度可能比市场预期的要快,美联储的加息进程可能导致美股泡沫的破裂。美联储最近一次的利率决议上调了通胀预期,并暗示将在2023年底前加息两次,比此前预期的时间点确实略有提前。\n但是美国最近的一次非农就业报告显示,虽然就业人数大增85万人表现抢眼,但是美国失业率和薪资增速表现不佳,周二美国公布的6月ISM非制造业指数从64降至60.1,不仅低于预期,而且创下4个月新低,表明美国服务业增长正在放缓。令人失望的美国数据令投资者质疑其缩减购债规模的时机,并排除了短期内加息的可能性。\n我们须要重点关注周四凌晨02:00美联储公布的货币政策会议纪要,投资者可以从中寻找美联储缩减资产购买规模的蛛丝马迹。\n总结\n短期内,美股的泡沫可能还会继续下去,因为宽松的政策令巨量的资金涌入市场,短期内特别是疫情期间这一状况恐将难以改变。不过,正如罗伯茨所警告的那样,美联储不论未来什么时候缩减资产购买规模或者加息,那一天终将会到来。这对股市将造成巨大的冲击。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1428,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":311814210,"gmtCreate":1611773799030,"gmtModify":1703753741141,"author":{"id":"3498383186168094","authorId":"3498383186168094","name":"jackyu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5852b1d0a40028444b138176415c31ee","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3498383186168094","authorIdStr":"3498383186168094"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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三线城市的小镇上瑞辛下午2点已经800多单了.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633305282","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7085,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3461361657383400","authorId":"3461361657383400","name":"张张涨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96ce9132c9ff1013d7248b1182891f6a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3461361657383400","authorIdStr":"3461361657383400"},"content":"单号不是单量,他一直跳号。建议学下做空机构的做法,坐门口数一下","text":"单号不是单量,他一直跳号。建议学下做空机构的做法,坐门口数一下","html":"单号不是单量,他一直跳号。建议学下做空机构的做法,坐门口数一下"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":884644609,"gmtCreate":1631889622801,"gmtModify":1631889622801,"author":{"id":"3498383186168094","authorId":"3498383186168094","name":"jackyu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5852b1d0a40028444b138176415c31ee","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3498383186168094","authorIdStr":"3498383186168094"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股或将暴跌50%!?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/92\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/406e2b4996e14cd8a66a2a6864ef4313);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">英为财情Investing </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-07 17:42</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>英为财情Investing.com –</b>曾准确预测2000年和2020年崩盘行情的RIA Advisors首席投资策略师罗伯茨近期再度放出豪言:美股将暴跌50%!</p>\n<p>罗伯茨认为,虽然现在很难判断美股见顶的准确时间,但是不可否认的是,市场已经非常接近顶部了。见顶的催化剂可能会是美联储缩减资产购买计划的速度将快过市场预期。一旦市场的重大回撤真的发生了,其跌幅就可能达到50%。</p>\n<p>他在最近的一篇文章中写道,尽管主要股指处于创纪录高位,但股市的估值仍处于历史最高水平;所谓的“巴菲特指标”,即股市总市值与GDP之比也处于历史高位;家庭股票持有量与个人可支配收入的比率也接近历史最高水平,这些指标的水平都堪比历史上每一次泡沫时期的水平。</p>\n<p>一些人们谈论更少的、不为人知的指标也显示出过度扩张的迹象。例如,芝加哥期权交易所的Skew 指数、Bespoke的非理性繁荣指数等。</p>\n<p><b>美股真的被高估了吗?</b></p>\n<p>拿道琼斯工业平均指数数来举例,从去年3月份的低点18213.65,一路冲高到了今年5月份35091.56的高点,截止6月底收盘涨幅高达79.94%。从更大的周期来看,从2008年金融危机之后,道琼斯指数从6440.08的低点一路飞跃到5月份的高点35091.56,涨幅高达388.88%。</p>\n<p>除了2020年美股出现一个较大幅度的回落外,基本上美国股市连续上涨了11年之久。市场上甚至出现了很多段子来形容美股的疯狂,比如:世界上没有什么东西是可以只涨不跌的,除了美股;最坚固的火炮不是用钛合金打造,而是美股等。毫无疑问,美股的疯涨暗藏了泡沫,美股的估值确实有部分被高估了。</p>\n<p><b>泡沫会破吗?</b></p>\n<p>罗伯茨认为美联储缩的表速度可能比市场预期的要快,美联储的加息进程可能导致美股泡沫的破裂。美联储最近一次的利率决议上调了通胀预期,并暗示将在2023年底前加息两次,比此前预期的时间点确实略有提前。</p>\n<p>但是美国最近的一次非农就业报告显示,虽然就业人数大增85万人表现抢眼,但是美国失业率和薪资增速表现不佳,周二美国公布的6月ISM非制造业指数从64降至60.1,不仅低于预期,而且创下4个月新低,表明美国服务业增长正在放缓。令人失望的美国数据令投资者质疑其缩减购债规模的时机,并排除了短期内加息的可能性。</p>\n<p>我们须要重点关注周四凌晨02:00美联储公布的货币政策会议纪要,投资者可以从中寻找美联储缩减资产购买规模的蛛丝马迹。</p>\n<p><b>总结</b></p>\n<p>短期内,美股的泡沫可能还会继续下去,因为宽松的政策令巨量的资金涌入市场,短期内特别是疫情期间这一状况恐将难以改变。不过,正如罗伯茨所警告的那样,美联储不论未来什么时候缩减资产购买规模或者加息,那一天终将会到来。这对股市将造成巨大的冲击。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6598d6db9f81e2e547af5cbf95f0c26f","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184960808","content_text":"英为财情Investing.com –曾准确预测2000年和2020年崩盘行情的RIA Advisors首席投资策略师罗伯茨近期再度放出豪言:美股将暴跌50%!\n罗伯茨认为,虽然现在很难判断美股见顶的准确时间,但是不可否认的是,市场已经非常接近顶部了。见顶的催化剂可能会是美联储缩减资产购买计划的速度将快过市场预期。一旦市场的重大回撤真的发生了,其跌幅就可能达到50%。\n他在最近的一篇文章中写道,尽管主要股指处于创纪录高位,但股市的估值仍处于历史最高水平;所谓的“巴菲特指标”,即股市总市值与GDP之比也处于历史高位;家庭股票持有量与个人可支配收入的比率也接近历史最高水平,这些指标的水平都堪比历史上每一次泡沫时期的水平。\n一些人们谈论更少的、不为人知的指标也显示出过度扩张的迹象。例如,芝加哥期权交易所的Skew 指数、Bespoke的非理性繁荣指数等。\n美股真的被高估了吗?\n拿道琼斯工业平均指数数来举例,从去年3月份的低点18213.65,一路冲高到了今年5月份35091.56的高点,截止6月底收盘涨幅高达79.94%。从更大的周期来看,从2008年金融危机之后,道琼斯指数从6440.08的低点一路飞跃到5月份的高点35091.56,涨幅高达388.88%。\n除了2020年美股出现一个较大幅度的回落外,基本上美国股市连续上涨了11年之久。市场上甚至出现了很多段子来形容美股的疯狂,比如:世界上没有什么东西是可以只涨不跌的,除了美股;最坚固的火炮不是用钛合金打造,而是美股等。毫无疑问,美股的疯涨暗藏了泡沫,美股的估值确实有部分被高估了。\n泡沫会破吗?\n罗伯茨认为美联储缩的表速度可能比市场预期的要快,美联储的加息进程可能导致美股泡沫的破裂。美联储最近一次的利率决议上调了通胀预期,并暗示将在2023年底前加息两次,比此前预期的时间点确实略有提前。\n但是美国最近的一次非农就业报告显示,虽然就业人数大增85万人表现抢眼,但是美国失业率和薪资增速表现不佳,周二美国公布的6月ISM非制造业指数从64降至60.1,不仅低于预期,而且创下4个月新低,表明美国服务业增长正在放缓。令人失望的美国数据令投资者质疑其缩减购债规模的时机,并排除了短期内加息的可能性。\n我们须要重点关注周四凌晨02:00美联储公布的货币政策会议纪要,投资者可以从中寻找美联储缩减资产购买规模的蛛丝马迹。\n总结\n短期内,美股的泡沫可能还会继续下去,因为宽松的政策令巨量的资金涌入市场,短期内特别是疫情期间这一状况恐将难以改变。不过,正如罗伯茨所警告的那样,美联储不论未来什么时候缩减资产购买规模或者加息,那一天终将会到来。这对股市将造成巨大的冲击。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1428,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":922316753,"gmtCreate":1587451415372,"gmtModify":1704364198828,"author":{"id":"3498383186168094","authorId":"3498383186168094","name":"jackyu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5852b1d0a40028444b138176415c31ee","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3498383186168094","authorIdStr":"3498383186168094"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$FUT:WTI原油2006(CL2006)$ 6月肯定空啊 毫无悬念","listText":"$FUT:WTI原油2006(CL2006)$ 6月肯定空啊 毫无悬念","text":"$FUT:WTI原油2006(CL2006)$ 6月肯定空啊 毫无悬念","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/922316753","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1958,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}