AirbusA380的个人主页 - 老虎社区

AirbusA380

AirbusA380

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2021-02-17

$苹果(AAPL)$那些天天说苹果股票垃圾的其实是自己垃圾，早些时候不买，涨了才买还买在高位，又怪别人一直横盘，有股票不看基本面市盈率一直涨的吗，别怪价值投资是瞎扯，是你自己不会还那么幼稚，亏死你们才好[冷漠]

2021-02-11

每次都是自己闲得蛋疼搞事出来，还怪别人，搞笑[冷漠]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-11

$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$最讨厌这种大涨大跌

2021-02-10

$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$真羡慕你们这些几十倍利润的，我就喝点汤[冷漠]

2021-02-02

$游戏驿站(GME)$多口说两句，该卖就卖，本身价值摆在那里，靠情怀靠信仰炒股绝对血本无归，投资利益放首位，那些留言说自己坚持留守或者坚持做多的估计早就卖了，鬼精的很[冷漠]

2021-02-02

$fuboTV Inc.(FUBO)$跌吧，我要补仓[冷漠]

2021-01-28

$美国航空(AAL)$没意思，买的期权，盘前涨80个点不能交易，开盘就打回原型[生气]

2021-01-28

$美国航空(AAL)$散了吧，空欢喜一场[无语]

2021-01-28

$美国航空(AAL)$这表现太失望了[冷漠]

2021-01-27

$美国航空(AAL)$虽然我买的是看涨期权，但能解释下什么情况吗[冷漠]

2021-01-27

$AMC院线(AMC)$涨的最高那几只股票期权交易不了，其他可以，牛逼[眼眼]

2021-01-27

$AMC院线(AMC)$弱弱问一句，期权为什么看不到数据了[思考]

2021-01-18

数字游戏关我屁事

中国GDP突破100万亿，能否撑起2021年大牛市？

2021-01-15

$Playtika Holding Corp.(PLTK)$看来都没中，都是免佣卡，包括我[冷漠]

2021-01-15

$Playtika Holding Corp.(PLTK)$看来都没中，都是免佣卡，包括我[冷漠]

2021-01-06

$Farfetch Ltd(FTCH)$这已经是玩美股以来最大收益了，羡慕那些几十倍的人[笑哭]

2020-12-22

$Tattooed Chef, Inc(TTCF)$都不回调下让我上车吗[生气]

2020-10-07

$Beyond Meat, Inc.(BYND)$越跪越涨，给个面子，让我补下仓可否[无语]

2020-10-06

$Beyond Meat, Inc.(BYND)$真不给机会啊[生气]

2020-10-06

$Beyond Meat, Inc.(BYND)$给个机会补仓行不行[冷漠]

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">$美国航空(AAL)$</a>虽然我买的是看涨期权，但能解释下什么情况吗[冷漠]&nbsp;","text":"$美国航空(AAL)$虽然我买的是看涨期权，但能解释下什么情况吗[冷漠]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/311076910","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2775,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":311045366,"gmtCreate":1611758422255,"gmtModify":1703753262875,"author":{"id":"3500012963217053","authorId":"3500012963217053","name":"AirbusA380","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2eed7654ee60f1f8a520ade6e93fd5f1","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3500012963217053","authorIdStr":"3500012963217053"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC院线(AMC)$</a>涨的最高那几只股票期权交易不了，其他可以，牛逼[眼眼]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC院线(AMC)$</a>涨的最高那几只股票期权交易不了，其他可以，牛逼[眼眼]&nbsp;","text":"$AMC院线(AMC)$涨的最高那几只股票期权交易不了，其他可以，牛逼[眼眼]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/311045366","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1264,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":311025247,"gmtCreate":1611758064289,"gmtModify":1703753235606,"author":{"id":"3500012963217053","authorId":"3500012963217053","name":"AirbusA380","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2eed7654ee60f1f8a520ade6e93fd5f1","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3500012963217053","authorIdStr":"3500012963217053"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC院线(AMC)$</a>弱弱问一句，期权为什么看不到数据了[思考]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC院线(AMC)$</a>弱弱问一句，期权为什么看不到数据了[思考]&nbsp;","text":"$AMC院线(AMC)$弱弱问一句，期权为什么看不到数据了[思考]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/311025247","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3213,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":334704959,"gmtCreate":1610963744071,"gmtModify":1703747323100,"author":{"id":"3500012963217053","authorId":"3500012963217053","name":"AirbusA380","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2eed7654ee60f1f8a520ade6e93fd5f1","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3500012963217053","authorIdStr":"3500012963217053"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"数字游戏关我屁事","listText":"数字游戏关我屁事","text":"数字游戏关我屁事","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/334704959","repostId":"1194953851","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194953851","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"格隆汇旗下公众号。分享和探讨港股、美国中概股以及少量估值确有吸引力之A股的投资线索、投资机会与投资心得.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"格隆汇","id":"3","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24397cd0a72f485e9734d658c5a0841d"},"pubTimestamp":1610941168,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1194953851?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-01-18 11:39","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"中国GDP突破100万亿，能否撑起2021年大牛市？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194953851","media":"格隆汇","summary":"今日上午10点，国家统计局公布2020年全年经济“成绩单”。据披露，全年GDP总额突破100万亿元，达到1015986亿元，同比去年增长2.3%，略超市场预期的2.2%。分季度看，一季度同比下降6.8","content":"<p>今日上午10点，国家统计局公布2020年全年经济“成绩单”。据披露，全年GDP总额突破100万亿元，达到1015986亿元，同比去年增长2.3%，略超市场预期的2.2%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/009dcfea89b88679083d2b01c1c7b2f0\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"371\"></p><p>分季度看，一季度同比下降6.8%，二季度增长3.2%，三季度增长4.9%，四季度增长6.5%。尤其是四季度环比提升1.6个百分点，远超出市场预期的6.2%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df25f9d24e830c13884625173f900e6e\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"371\"></p><p>供给侧端看，2020年规模以上工业增加值（注：主营收入超过2000万元）比上年增长2.8%。单12月份，规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长7.3%，增速较11月份加快0.3个百分点，超过预期增长7%。可见2020年3月新冠疫情被控制后，供给端恢复非常快，逐月呈现改善状态，并呈现了一定的繁荣。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07be5acb1379534b008a972de437507c\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"371\"></p><p>需求端，分项来看，社会消费品零售总额同比增4.6%，预期增5.4%，前值增5%。可见大消费依旧没有起来，环比11月竟然下滑0.4个百分点，远低于市场预期。一方面受多地散发性疫情影响，比如河北、北京、大连等地；另一方面，受人们对于未来收入预期的压制。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c64e47bf4aeb9a6ba6c5b66df3fed1f8\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"371\"></p><p>消费细分项中，餐饮12月收入4950亿元，同比仅增长0.4%，而全年餐饮总收入为39527亿元，仍然同比大幅下滑16.6%。另外，粮油、食品类全年总收入15283亿元，同比增长9.9%，成为消费中增速非常快的大类。这是日常必要消费，主要受益于粮食等价格的提升。</p><p>除此之外，汽车大类消费边际改善较为明显，跟国家下达的新能源车以及汽车下乡等政策密切相关。整体而言，消费不及预期，仍然没有修复到疫情之前的水平，成为未来经济增长的一个压力。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39b2911f740ebeeb0b04ea3c3fd97d01\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"479\"></p><p>（来源：统计局）</p><p>固定投资方面，全年同比增2.9%，预期增长3%，环比提升0.3个百分点。固定投资增速不及预期，斜率越渐趋于平缓。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/013cc415bbdf632ec57984fdeb8117cf\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"371\"></p><p>细分来看，基础设施投资（不含电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业）比上年增长0.9%，增速比1—11月份回落0.1个百分点。可见政府主导的基建投资呈现了增长乏力的状态。</p><p>另外，制造业全年投资下降2.2%，降幅收窄1.3个百分点，仍然是拖累固定投资细分大项，虽然11月和12月进出口的繁荣带动制造业投资增速有所收窄。</p><p>2020年全年，房地产投资增速为7%，环比提升0.2个百分点，增长斜率进一步放缓，但仍然是固定投资、乃至中国经济增长的压舱石。不过，在12月31日，央行出台《关于建立银行业金融机构房地产贷款集中度管理制度的通知》，将银行房贷规模进行压制，将对于房地产投资产生影响，未来地产投资增速或将会继续放缓。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b88cf72a415d1f48ebc4ed2617e8c13\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"323\"></p><p>（来源：统计局）</p><p>2020年全年经济超预期，主要贡献增量之一的是出口。12月份，中国出口金额（美元口径）同比增长18.1%，超出市场预期，11月为21.1%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6e83f906c1d42599fc5010d68a1ad29\" tg-width=\"475\" tg-height=\"323\"></p><p>从国别来看，我国对美、欧、日、东盟的出口增速分别为34.5%、4.3%、8.2%、18.4%，对日本和东盟的出口增速较上月均有所回升，分别回升了8.4和2.6个百分点；对美国和欧盟的出口增速则出现了回落，分别回落了11.6和4.3个百分点。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb35b23b990b0cc50692fc3ec166f56d\" tg-width=\"478\" tg-height=\"326\"></p><p>由于海外疫情继续爆发，以及多国进行新一轮封锁，四季度出口是非常繁荣的，但这具备偶发性，持续的时间不会太长。因为一旦疫苗大范围接种、海外疫情得到缓解，需求会大幅回落。</p><p>整体而言，中国2020年在遭遇新冠疫情的冲击下，全年仍然能够达到2.3%的同比增速，实属不易，且超出市场预期。不过，内部结构看，经济增长的结构并不是很牢靠，主要靠出口和地产拉动为主，而应该贡献主力的消费则呈现疲软态势，这是值得持续关注的。</p><p>中国核心经济数据披露后，A股市场反响较为热烈，三大指数全线上冲，创业板指大涨超过1.8%，深成指上涨超过1.3%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31acf78b98df043e4e0f41cdaf672a2a\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"392\"></p><p>经济基本面超预期，自然会利好股市。不过，接下来大盘的整体走势，还要继续追踪央行货币政策的动作。</p><p>上周五，央行只展开5000亿MLF操作，低于市场此前预期的8000亿，引发市场大震荡。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b734048e5101bd78af5a4f44869af350\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"224\"></p><p>（来源：央行官网）</p><p>该规模低于预期，体现在两个方面：</p><p>一方面，之前主流机构预期是这次要操作8000亿，结果只有5000亿；另一方面，考虑到本月15日到期3000亿元MLF，以及25日到期2405亿元TMLF，总计到期5405亿，而本次只投放5000亿，所以实际上这次是净回笼了405亿。这是8月以来，央行首次没有对当月MLF进行超额续作。</p><p>这是2021年第一个直接观察央行在流动性上的立场指标，表明了一定的态度。对于央行不及预期的MLF操作，债券市场反应很直接，已经连跌2天：</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1daa621a87327005cc8b635e05fb0527\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"361\"></p><p>（来源：Wind）</p><p>总之，接下来A股的表现，仍然取决于基本面和货币政策的合力方向，大概率会继续呈现拉扯震荡的态势。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>中国GDP突破100万亿，能否撑起2021年大牛市？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ 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#494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中国GDP突破100万亿，能否撑起2021年大牛市？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/24397cd0a72f485e9734d658c5a0841d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-01-18 11:39</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>今日上午10点，国家统计局公布2020年全年经济“成绩单”。据披露，全年GDP总额突破100万亿元，达到1015986亿元，同比去年增长2.3%，略超市场预期的2.2%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/009dcfea89b88679083d2b01c1c7b2f0\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"371\"></p><p>分季度看，一季度同比下降6.8%，二季度增长3.2%，三季度增长4.9%，四季度增长6.5%。尤其是四季度环比提升1.6个百分点，远超出市场预期的6.2%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df25f9d24e830c13884625173f900e6e\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"371\"></p><p>供给侧端看，2020年规模以上工业增加值（注：主营收入超过2000万元）比上年增长2.8%。单12月份，规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长7.3%，增速较11月份加快0.3个百分点，超过预期增长7%。可见2020年3月新冠疫情被控制后，供给端恢复非常快，逐月呈现改善状态，并呈现了一定的繁荣。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07be5acb1379534b008a972de437507c\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"371\"></p><p>需求端，分项来看，社会消费品零售总额同比增4.6%，预期增5.4%，前值增5%。可见大消费依旧没有起来，环比11月竟然下滑0.4个百分点，远低于市场预期。一方面受多地散发性疫情影响，比如河北、北京、大连等地；另一方面，受人们对于未来收入预期的压制。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c64e47bf4aeb9a6ba6c5b66df3fed1f8\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"371\"></p><p>消费细分项中，餐饮12月收入4950亿元，同比仅增长0.4%，而全年餐饮总收入为39527亿元，仍然同比大幅下滑16.6%。另外，粮油、食品类全年总收入15283亿元，同比增长9.9%，成为消费中增速非常快的大类。这是日常必要消费，主要受益于粮食等价格的提升。</p><p>除此之外，汽车大类消费边际改善较为明显，跟国家下达的新能源车以及汽车下乡等政策密切相关。整体而言，消费不及预期，仍然没有修复到疫情之前的水平，成为未来经济增长的一个压力。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39b2911f740ebeeb0b04ea3c3fd97d01\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"479\"></p><p>（来源：统计局）</p><p>固定投资方面，全年同比增2.9%，预期增长3%，环比提升0.3个百分点。固定投资增速不及预期，斜率越渐趋于平缓。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/013cc415bbdf632ec57984fdeb8117cf\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"371\"></p><p>细分来看，基础设施投资（不含电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业）比上年增长0.9%，增速比1—11月份回落0.1个百分点。可见政府主导的基建投资呈现了增长乏力的状态。</p><p>另外，制造业全年投资下降2.2%，降幅收窄1.3个百分点，仍然是拖累固定投资细分大项，虽然11月和12月进出口的繁荣带动制造业投资增速有所收窄。</p><p>2020年全年，房地产投资增速为7%，环比提升0.2个百分点，增长斜率进一步放缓，但仍然是固定投资、乃至中国经济增长的压舱石。不过，在12月31日，央行出台《关于建立银行业金融机构房地产贷款集中度管理制度的通知》，将银行房贷规模进行压制，将对于房地产投资产生影响，未来地产投资增速或将会继续放缓。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b88cf72a415d1f48ebc4ed2617e8c13\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"323\"></p><p>（来源：统计局）</p><p>2020年全年经济超预期，主要贡献增量之一的是出口。12月份，中国出口金额（美元口径）同比增长18.1%，超出市场预期，11月为21.1%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6e83f906c1d42599fc5010d68a1ad29\" tg-width=\"475\" tg-height=\"323\"></p><p>从国别来看，我国对美、欧、日、东盟的出口增速分别为34.5%、4.3%、8.2%、18.4%，对日本和东盟的出口增速较上月均有所回升，分别回升了8.4和2.6个百分点；对美国和欧盟的出口增速则出现了回落，分别回落了11.6和4.3个百分点。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb35b23b990b0cc50692fc3ec166f56d\" tg-width=\"478\" tg-height=\"326\"></p><p>由于海外疫情继续爆发，以及多国进行新一轮封锁，四季度出口是非常繁荣的，但这具备偶发性，持续的时间不会太长。因为一旦疫苗大范围接种、海外疫情得到缓解，需求会大幅回落。</p><p>整体而言，中国2020年在遭遇新冠疫情的冲击下，全年仍然能够达到2.3%的同比增速，实属不易，且超出市场预期。不过，内部结构看，经济增长的结构并不是很牢靠，主要靠出口和地产拉动为主，而应该贡献主力的消费则呈现疲软态势，这是值得持续关注的。</p><p>中国核心经济数据披露后，A股市场反响较为热烈，三大指数全线上冲，创业板指大涨超过1.8%，深成指上涨超过1.3%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31acf78b98df043e4e0f41cdaf672a2a\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"392\"></p><p>经济基本面超预期，自然会利好股市。不过，接下来大盘的整体走势，还要继续追踪央行货币政策的动作。</p><p>上周五，央行只展开5000亿MLF操作，低于市场此前预期的8000亿，引发市场大震荡。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b734048e5101bd78af5a4f44869af350\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"224\"></p><p>（来源：央行官网）</p><p>该规模低于预期，体现在两个方面：</p><p>一方面，之前主流机构预期是这次要操作8000亿，结果只有5000亿；另一方面，考虑到本月15日到期3000亿元MLF，以及25日到期2405亿元TMLF，总计到期5405亿，而本次只投放5000亿，所以实际上这次是净回笼了405亿。这是8月以来，央行首次没有对当月MLF进行超额续作。</p><p>这是2021年第一个直接观察央行在流动性上的立场指标，表明了一定的态度。对于央行不及预期的MLF操作，债券市场反应很直接，已经连跌2天：</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1daa621a87327005cc8b635e05fb0527\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"361\"></p><p>（来源：Wind）</p><p>总之，接下来A股的表现，仍然取决于基本面和货币政策的合力方向，大概率会继续呈现拉扯震荡的态势。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c7221d934f1008e531bdf79c8cfe0ee","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194953851","content_text":"今日上午10点，国家统计局公布2020年全年经济“成绩单”。据披露，全年GDP总额突破100万亿元，达到1015986亿元，同比去年增长2.3%，略超市场预期的2.2%。分季度看，一季度同比下降6.8%，二季度增长3.2%，三季度增长4.9%，四季度增长6.5%。尤其是四季度环比提升1.6个百分点，远超出市场预期的6.2%。供给侧端看，2020年规模以上工业增加值（注：主营收入超过2000万元）比上年增长2.8%。单12月份，规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长7.3%，增速较11月份加快0.3个百分点，超过预期增长7%。可见2020年3月新冠疫情被控制后，供给端恢复非常快，逐月呈现改善状态，并呈现了一定的繁荣。需求端，分项来看，社会消费品零售总额同比增4.6%，预期增5.4%，前值增5%。可见大消费依旧没有起来，环比11月竟然下滑0.4个百分点，远低于市场预期。一方面受多地散发性疫情影响，比如河北、北京、大连等地；另一方面，受人们对于未来收入预期的压制。消费细分项中，餐饮12月收入4950亿元，同比仅增长0.4%，而全年餐饮总收入为39527亿元，仍然同比大幅下滑16.6%。另外，粮油、食品类全年总收入15283亿元，同比增长9.9%，成为消费中增速非常快的大类。这是日常必要消费，主要受益于粮食等价格的提升。除此之外，汽车大类消费边际改善较为明显，跟国家下达的新能源车以及汽车下乡等政策密切相关。整体而言，消费不及预期，仍然没有修复到疫情之前的水平，成为未来经济增长的一个压力。（来源：统计局）固定投资方面，全年同比增2.9%，预期增长3%，环比提升0.3个百分点。固定投资增速不及预期，斜率越渐趋于平缓。细分来看，基础设施投资（不含电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业）比上年增长0.9%，增速比1—11月份回落0.1个百分点。可见政府主导的基建投资呈现了增长乏力的状态。另外，制造业全年投资下降2.2%，降幅收窄1.3个百分点，仍然是拖累固定投资细分大项，虽然11月和12月进出口的繁荣带动制造业投资增速有所收窄。2020年全年，房地产投资增速为7%，环比提升0.2个百分点，增长斜率进一步放缓，但仍然是固定投资、乃至中国经济增长的压舱石。不过，在12月31日，央行出台《关于建立银行业金融机构房地产贷款集中度管理制度的通知》，将银行房贷规模进行压制，将对于房地产投资产生影响，未来地产投资增速或将会继续放缓。（来源：统计局）2020年全年经济超预期，主要贡献增量之一的是出口。12月份，中国出口金额（美元口径）同比增长18.1%，超出市场预期，11月为21.1%。从国别来看，我国对美、欧、日、东盟的出口增速分别为34.5%、4.3%、8.2%、18.4%，对日本和东盟的出口增速较上月均有所回升，分别回升了8.4和2.6个百分点；对美国和欧盟的出口增速则出现了回落，分别回落了11.6和4.3个百分点。由于海外疫情继续爆发，以及多国进行新一轮封锁，四季度出口是非常繁荣的，但这具备偶发性，持续的时间不会太长。因为一旦疫苗大范围接种、海外疫情得到缓解，需求会大幅回落。整体而言，中国2020年在遭遇新冠疫情的冲击下，全年仍然能够达到2.3%的同比增速，实属不易，且超出市场预期。不过，内部结构看，经济增长的结构并不是很牢靠，主要靠出口和地产拉动为主，而应该贡献主力的消费则呈现疲软态势，这是值得持续关注的。中国核心经济数据披露后，A股市场反响较为热烈，三大指数全线上冲，创业板指大涨超过1.8%，深成指上涨超过1.3%。经济基本面超预期，自然会利好股市。不过，接下来大盘的整体走势，还要继续追踪央行货币政策的动作。上周五，央行只展开5000亿MLF操作，低于市场此前预期的8000亿，引发市场大震荡。（来源：央行官网）该规模低于预期，体现在两个方面：一方面，之前主流机构预期是这次要操作8000亿，结果只有5000亿；另一方面，考虑到本月15日到期3000亿元MLF，以及25日到期2405亿元TMLF，总计到期5405亿，而本次只投放5000亿，所以实际上这次是净回笼了405亿。这是8月以来，央行首次没有对当月MLF进行超额续作。这是2021年第一个直接观察央行在流动性上的立场指标，表明了一定的态度。对于央行不及预期的MLF操作，债券市场反应很直接，已经连跌2天：（来源：Wind）总之，接下来A股的表现，仍然取决于基本面和货币政策的合力方向，大概率会继续呈现拉扯震荡的态势。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2052,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":334113602,"gmtCreate":1610717645306,"gmtModify":1703746525807,"author":{"id":"3500012963217053","authorId":"3500012963217053","name":"AirbusA380","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2eed7654ee60f1f8a520ade6e93fd5f1","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3500012963217053","authorIdStr":"3500012963217053"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTK\">$Playtika Holding Corp.(PLTK)$</a>看来都没中，都是免佣卡，包括我[冷漠]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTK\">$Playtika Holding Corp.(PLTK)$</a>看来都没中，都是免佣卡，包括我[冷漠]&nbsp;","text":"$Playtika Holding Corp.(PLTK)$看来都没中，都是免佣卡，包括我[冷漠]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/334113602","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1155,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":334119615,"gmtCreate":1610717561137,"gmtModify":1703746524458,"author":{"id":"3500012963217053","authorId":"3500012963217053","name":"AirbusA380","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2eed7654ee60f1f8a520ade6e93fd5f1","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3500012963217053","authorIdStr":"3500012963217053"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTK\">$Playtika Holding 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Inc.(BYND)$给个机会补仓行不行[冷漠]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/300078115","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2263,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3490789781192271","authorId":"3490789781192271","name":"DDD2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3fa0f57fb1b02a8a7a9f11a7ef5c6b6","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3490789781192271","authorIdStr":"3490789781192271"},"content":"涨势起来了什么时候加仓都是对的","text":"涨势起来了什么时候加仓都是对的","html":"涨势起来了什么时候加仓都是对的"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":388291562,"gmtCreate":1613056399656,"gmtModify":1703768974517,"author":{"id":"3500012963217053","authorId":"3500012963217053","name":"AirbusA380","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2eed7654ee60f1f8a520ade6e93fd5f1","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3500012963217053","authorIdStr":"3500012963217053"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"每次都是自己闲得蛋疼搞事出来，还怪别人，搞笑[冷漠]&nbsp;","listText":"每次都是自己闲得蛋疼搞事出来，还怪别人，搞笑[冷漠]&nbsp;","text":"每次都是自己闲得蛋疼搞事出来，还怪别人，搞笑[冷漠]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/388291562","repostId":"1121925946","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3432,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":334704959,"gmtCreate":1610963744071,"gmtModify":1703747323100,"author":{"id":"3500012963217053","authorId":"3500012963217053","name":"AirbusA380","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2eed7654ee60f1f8a520ade6e93fd5f1","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3500012963217053","authorIdStr":"3500012963217053"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"数字游戏关我屁事","listText":"数字游戏关我屁事","text":"数字游戏关我屁事","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/334704959","repostId":"1194953851","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194953851","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"格隆汇旗下公众号。分享和探讨港股、美国中概股以及少量估值确有吸引力之A股的投资线索、投资机会与投资心得.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"格隆汇","id":"3","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24397cd0a72f485e9734d658c5a0841d"},"pubTimestamp":1610941168,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1194953851?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-01-18 11:39","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"中国GDP突破100万亿，能否撑起2021年大牛市？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194953851","media":"格隆汇","summary":"今日上午10点，国家统计局公布2020年全年经济“成绩单”。据披露，全年GDP总额突破100万亿元，达到1015986亿元，同比去年增长2.3%，略超市场预期的2.2%。分季度看，一季度同比下降6.8","content":"<p>今日上午10点，国家统计局公布2020年全年经济“成绩单”。据披露，全年GDP总额突破100万亿元，达到1015986亿元，同比去年增长2.3%，略超市场预期的2.2%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/009dcfea89b88679083d2b01c1c7b2f0\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"371\"></p><p>分季度看，一季度同比下降6.8%，二季度增长3.2%，三季度增长4.9%，四季度增长6.5%。尤其是四季度环比提升1.6个百分点，远超出市场预期的6.2%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df25f9d24e830c13884625173f900e6e\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"371\"></p><p>供给侧端看，2020年规模以上工业增加值（注：主营收入超过2000万元）比上年增长2.8%。单12月份，规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长7.3%，增速较11月份加快0.3个百分点，超过预期增长7%。可见2020年3月新冠疫情被控制后，供给端恢复非常快，逐月呈现改善状态，并呈现了一定的繁荣。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07be5acb1379534b008a972de437507c\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"371\"></p><p>需求端，分项来看，社会消费品零售总额同比增4.6%，预期增5.4%，前值增5%。可见大消费依旧没有起来，环比11月竟然下滑0.4个百分点，远低于市场预期。一方面受多地散发性疫情影响，比如河北、北京、大连等地；另一方面，受人们对于未来收入预期的压制。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c64e47bf4aeb9a6ba6c5b66df3fed1f8\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"371\"></p><p>消费细分项中，餐饮12月收入4950亿元，同比仅增长0.4%，而全年餐饮总收入为39527亿元，仍然同比大幅下滑16.6%。另外，粮油、食品类全年总收入15283亿元，同比增长9.9%，成为消费中增速非常快的大类。这是日常必要消费，主要受益于粮食等价格的提升。</p><p>除此之外，汽车大类消费边际改善较为明显，跟国家下达的新能源车以及汽车下乡等政策密切相关。整体而言，消费不及预期，仍然没有修复到疫情之前的水平，成为未来经济增长的一个压力。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39b2911f740ebeeb0b04ea3c3fd97d01\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"479\"></p><p>（来源：统计局）</p><p>固定投资方面，全年同比增2.9%，预期增长3%，环比提升0.3个百分点。固定投资增速不及预期，斜率越渐趋于平缓。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/013cc415bbdf632ec57984fdeb8117cf\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"371\"></p><p>细分来看，基础设施投资（不含电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业）比上年增长0.9%，增速比1—11月份回落0.1个百分点。可见政府主导的基建投资呈现了增长乏力的状态。</p><p>另外，制造业全年投资下降2.2%，降幅收窄1.3个百分点，仍然是拖累固定投资细分大项，虽然11月和12月进出口的繁荣带动制造业投资增速有所收窄。</p><p>2020年全年，房地产投资增速为7%，环比提升0.2个百分点，增长斜率进一步放缓，但仍然是固定投资、乃至中国经济增长的压舱石。不过，在12月31日，央行出台《关于建立银行业金融机构房地产贷款集中度管理制度的通知》，将银行房贷规模进行压制，将对于房地产投资产生影响，未来地产投资增速或将会继续放缓。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b88cf72a415d1f48ebc4ed2617e8c13\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"323\"></p><p>（来源：统计局）</p><p>2020年全年经济超预期，主要贡献增量之一的是出口。12月份，中国出口金额（美元口径）同比增长18.1%，超出市场预期，11月为21.1%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6e83f906c1d42599fc5010d68a1ad29\" tg-width=\"475\" tg-height=\"323\"></p><p>从国别来看，我国对美、欧、日、东盟的出口增速分别为34.5%、4.3%、8.2%、18.4%，对日本和东盟的出口增速较上月均有所回升，分别回升了8.4和2.6个百分点；对美国和欧盟的出口增速则出现了回落，分别回落了11.6和4.3个百分点。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb35b23b990b0cc50692fc3ec166f56d\" tg-width=\"478\" tg-height=\"326\"></p><p>由于海外疫情继续爆发，以及多国进行新一轮封锁，四季度出口是非常繁荣的，但这具备偶发性，持续的时间不会太长。因为一旦疫苗大范围接种、海外疫情得到缓解，需求会大幅回落。</p><p>整体而言，中国2020年在遭遇新冠疫情的冲击下，全年仍然能够达到2.3%的同比增速，实属不易，且超出市场预期。不过，内部结构看，经济增长的结构并不是很牢靠，主要靠出口和地产拉动为主，而应该贡献主力的消费则呈现疲软态势，这是值得持续关注的。</p><p>中国核心经济数据披露后，A股市场反响较为热烈，三大指数全线上冲，创业板指大涨超过1.8%，深成指上涨超过1.3%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31acf78b98df043e4e0f41cdaf672a2a\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"392\"></p><p>经济基本面超预期，自然会利好股市。不过，接下来大盘的整体走势，还要继续追踪央行货币政策的动作。</p><p>上周五，央行只展开5000亿MLF操作，低于市场此前预期的8000亿，引发市场大震荡。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b734048e5101bd78af5a4f44869af350\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"224\"></p><p>（来源：央行官网）</p><p>该规模低于预期，体现在两个方面：</p><p>一方面，之前主流机构预期是这次要操作8000亿，结果只有5000亿；另一方面，考虑到本月15日到期3000亿元MLF，以及25日到期2405亿元TMLF，总计到期5405亿，而本次只投放5000亿，所以实际上这次是净回笼了405亿。这是8月以来，央行首次没有对当月MLF进行超额续作。</p><p>这是2021年第一个直接观察央行在流动性上的立场指标，表明了一定的态度。对于央行不及预期的MLF操作，债券市场反应很直接，已经连跌2天：</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1daa621a87327005cc8b635e05fb0527\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"361\"></p><p>（来源：Wind）</p><p>总之，接下来A股的表现，仍然取决于基本面和货币政策的合力方向，大概率会继续呈现拉扯震荡的态势。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>中国GDP突破100万亿，能否撑起2021年大牛市？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ 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class=\"title\">\n中国GDP突破100万亿，能否撑起2021年大牛市？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/24397cd0a72f485e9734d658c5a0841d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-01-18 11:39</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>今日上午10点，国家统计局公布2020年全年经济“成绩单”。据披露，全年GDP总额突破100万亿元，达到1015986亿元，同比去年增长2.3%，略超市场预期的2.2%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/009dcfea89b88679083d2b01c1c7b2f0\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"371\"></p><p>分季度看，一季度同比下降6.8%，二季度增长3.2%，三季度增长4.9%，四季度增长6.5%。尤其是四季度环比提升1.6个百分点，远超出市场预期的6.2%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df25f9d24e830c13884625173f900e6e\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"371\"></p><p>供给侧端看，2020年规模以上工业增加值（注：主营收入超过2000万元）比上年增长2.8%。单12月份，规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长7.3%，增速较11月份加快0.3个百分点，超过预期增长7%。可见2020年3月新冠疫情被控制后，供给端恢复非常快，逐月呈现改善状态，并呈现了一定的繁荣。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07be5acb1379534b008a972de437507c\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"371\"></p><p>需求端，分项来看，社会消费品零售总额同比增4.6%，预期增5.4%，前值增5%。可见大消费依旧没有起来，环比11月竟然下滑0.4个百分点，远低于市场预期。一方面受多地散发性疫情影响，比如河北、北京、大连等地；另一方面，受人们对于未来收入预期的压制。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c64e47bf4aeb9a6ba6c5b66df3fed1f8\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"371\"></p><p>消费细分项中，餐饮12月收入4950亿元，同比仅增长0.4%，而全年餐饮总收入为39527亿元，仍然同比大幅下滑16.6%。另外，粮油、食品类全年总收入15283亿元，同比增长9.9%，成为消费中增速非常快的大类。这是日常必要消费，主要受益于粮食等价格的提升。</p><p>除此之外，汽车大类消费边际改善较为明显，跟国家下达的新能源车以及汽车下乡等政策密切相关。整体而言，消费不及预期，仍然没有修复到疫情之前的水平，成为未来经济增长的一个压力。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39b2911f740ebeeb0b04ea3c3fd97d01\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"479\"></p><p>（来源：统计局）</p><p>固定投资方面，全年同比增2.9%，预期增长3%，环比提升0.3个百分点。固定投资增速不及预期，斜率越渐趋于平缓。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/013cc415bbdf632ec57984fdeb8117cf\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"371\"></p><p>细分来看，基础设施投资（不含电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业）比上年增长0.9%，增速比1—11月份回落0.1个百分点。可见政府主导的基建投资呈现了增长乏力的状态。</p><p>另外，制造业全年投资下降2.2%，降幅收窄1.3个百分点，仍然是拖累固定投资细分大项，虽然11月和12月进出口的繁荣带动制造业投资增速有所收窄。</p><p>2020年全年，房地产投资增速为7%，环比提升0.2个百分点，增长斜率进一步放缓，但仍然是固定投资、乃至中国经济增长的压舱石。不过，在12月31日，央行出台《关于建立银行业金融机构房地产贷款集中度管理制度的通知》，将银行房贷规模进行压制，将对于房地产投资产生影响，未来地产投资增速或将会继续放缓。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b88cf72a415d1f48ebc4ed2617e8c13\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"323\"></p><p>（来源：统计局）</p><p>2020年全年经济超预期，主要贡献增量之一的是出口。12月份，中国出口金额（美元口径）同比增长18.1%，超出市场预期，11月为21.1%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6e83f906c1d42599fc5010d68a1ad29\" tg-width=\"475\" tg-height=\"323\"></p><p>从国别来看，我国对美、欧、日、东盟的出口增速分别为34.5%、4.3%、8.2%、18.4%，对日本和东盟的出口增速较上月均有所回升，分别回升了8.4和2.6个百分点；对美国和欧盟的出口增速则出现了回落，分别回落了11.6和4.3个百分点。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb35b23b990b0cc50692fc3ec166f56d\" tg-width=\"478\" tg-height=\"326\"></p><p>由于海外疫情继续爆发，以及多国进行新一轮封锁，四季度出口是非常繁荣的，但这具备偶发性，持续的时间不会太长。因为一旦疫苗大范围接种、海外疫情得到缓解，需求会大幅回落。</p><p>整体而言，中国2020年在遭遇新冠疫情的冲击下，全年仍然能够达到2.3%的同比增速，实属不易，且超出市场预期。不过，内部结构看，经济增长的结构并不是很牢靠，主要靠出口和地产拉动为主，而应该贡献主力的消费则呈现疲软态势，这是值得持续关注的。</p><p>中国核心经济数据披露后，A股市场反响较为热烈，三大指数全线上冲，创业板指大涨超过1.8%，深成指上涨超过1.3%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31acf78b98df043e4e0f41cdaf672a2a\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"392\"></p><p>经济基本面超预期，自然会利好股市。不过，接下来大盘的整体走势，还要继续追踪央行货币政策的动作。</p><p>上周五，央行只展开5000亿MLF操作，低于市场此前预期的8000亿，引发市场大震荡。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b734048e5101bd78af5a4f44869af350\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"224\"></p><p>（来源：央行官网）</p><p>该规模低于预期，体现在两个方面：</p><p>一方面，之前主流机构预期是这次要操作8000亿，结果只有5000亿；另一方面，考虑到本月15日到期3000亿元MLF，以及25日到期2405亿元TMLF，总计到期5405亿，而本次只投放5000亿，所以实际上这次是净回笼了405亿。这是8月以来，央行首次没有对当月MLF进行超额续作。</p><p>这是2021年第一个直接观察央行在流动性上的立场指标，表明了一定的态度。对于央行不及预期的MLF操作，债券市场反应很直接，已经连跌2天：</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1daa621a87327005cc8b635e05fb0527\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"361\"></p><p>（来源：Wind）</p><p>总之，接下来A股的表现，仍然取决于基本面和货币政策的合力方向，大概率会继续呈现拉扯震荡的态势。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c7221d934f1008e531bdf79c8cfe0ee","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194953851","content_text":"今日上午10点，国家统计局公布2020年全年经济“成绩单”。据披露，全年GDP总额突破100万亿元，达到1015986亿元，同比去年增长2.3%，略超市场预期的2.2%。分季度看，一季度同比下降6.8%，二季度增长3.2%，三季度增长4.9%，四季度增长6.5%。尤其是四季度环比提升1.6个百分点，远超出市场预期的6.2%。供给侧端看，2020年规模以上工业增加值（注：主营收入超过2000万元）比上年增长2.8%。单12月份，规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长7.3%，增速较11月份加快0.3个百分点，超过预期增长7%。可见2020年3月新冠疫情被控制后，供给端恢复非常快，逐月呈现改善状态，并呈现了一定的繁荣。需求端，分项来看，社会消费品零售总额同比增4.6%，预期增5.4%，前值增5%。可见大消费依旧没有起来，环比11月竟然下滑0.4个百分点，远低于市场预期。一方面受多地散发性疫情影响，比如河北、北京、大连等地；另一方面，受人们对于未来收入预期的压制。消费细分项中，餐饮12月收入4950亿元，同比仅增长0.4%，而全年餐饮总收入为39527亿元，仍然同比大幅下滑16.6%。另外，粮油、食品类全年总收入15283亿元，同比增长9.9%，成为消费中增速非常快的大类。这是日常必要消费，主要受益于粮食等价格的提升。除此之外，汽车大类消费边际改善较为明显，跟国家下达的新能源车以及汽车下乡等政策密切相关。整体而言，消费不及预期，仍然没有修复到疫情之前的水平，成为未来经济增长的一个压力。（来源：统计局）固定投资方面，全年同比增2.9%，预期增长3%，环比提升0.3个百分点。固定投资增速不及预期，斜率越渐趋于平缓。细分来看，基础设施投资（不含电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业）比上年增长0.9%，增速比1—11月份回落0.1个百分点。可见政府主导的基建投资呈现了增长乏力的状态。另外，制造业全年投资下降2.2%，降幅收窄1.3个百分点，仍然是拖累固定投资细分大项，虽然11月和12月进出口的繁荣带动制造业投资增速有所收窄。2020年全年，房地产投资增速为7%，环比提升0.2个百分点，增长斜率进一步放缓，但仍然是固定投资、乃至中国经济增长的压舱石。不过，在12月31日，央行出台《关于建立银行业金融机构房地产贷款集中度管理制度的通知》，将银行房贷规模进行压制，将对于房地产投资产生影响，未来地产投资增速或将会继续放缓。（来源：统计局）2020年全年经济超预期，主要贡献增量之一的是出口。12月份，中国出口金额（美元口径）同比增长18.1%，超出市场预期，11月为21.1%。从国别来看，我国对美、欧、日、东盟的出口增速分别为34.5%、4.3%、8.2%、18.4%，对日本和东盟的出口增速较上月均有所回升，分别回升了8.4和2.6个百分点；对美国和欧盟的出口增速则出现了回落，分别回落了11.6和4.3个百分点。由于海外疫情继续爆发，以及多国进行新一轮封锁，四季度出口是非常繁荣的，但这具备偶发性，持续的时间不会太长。因为一旦疫苗大范围接种、海外疫情得到缓解，需求会大幅回落。整体而言，中国2020年在遭遇新冠疫情的冲击下，全年仍然能够达到2.3%的同比增速，实属不易，且超出市场预期。不过，内部结构看，经济增长的结构并不是很牢靠，主要靠出口和地产拉动为主，而应该贡献主力的消费则呈现疲软态势，这是值得持续关注的。中国核心经济数据披露后，A股市场反响较为热烈，三大指数全线上冲，创业板指大涨超过1.8%，深成指上涨超过1.3%。经济基本面超预期，自然会利好股市。不过，接下来大盘的整体走势，还要继续追踪央行货币政策的动作。上周五，央行只展开5000亿MLF操作，低于市场此前预期的8000亿，引发市场大震荡。（来源：央行官网）该规模低于预期，体现在两个方面：一方面，之前主流机构预期是这次要操作8000亿，结果只有5000亿；另一方面，考虑到本月15日到期3000亿元MLF，以及25日到期2405亿元TMLF，总计到期5405亿，而本次只投放5000亿，所以实际上这次是净回笼了405亿。这是8月以来，央行首次没有对当月MLF进行超额续作。这是2021年第一个直接观察央行在流动性上的立场指标，表明了一定的态度。对于央行不及预期的MLF操作，债券市场反应很直接，已经连跌2天：（来源：Wind）总之，接下来A股的表现，仍然取决于基本面和货币政策的合力方向，大概率会继续呈现拉扯震荡的态势。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2052,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":334113602,"gmtCreate":1610717645306,"gmtModify":1703746525807,"author":{"id":"3500012963217053","authorId":"3500012963217053","name":"AirbusA380","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2eed7654ee60f1f8a520ade6e93fd5f1","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3500012963217053","authorIdStr":"3500012963217053"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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