BrotherDeng的个人主页 - 老虎社区

BrotherDeng

BrotherDeng

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IP属地：湖北

17关注

5粉丝

2主题

0勋章

2021-09-16

$中国恒大(03333)$我的恒大，你忍一下！吾亦烦[开心]

2021-09-10

$拼多多(PDD)$ 欸，你tm倒是多涨点啊！

2021-08-25

$京东(JD)$木头姐……之前清空中概股，现在又买回来，自己打自己的脸……是不是跟马教主一样割散户的韭菜啊？

2021-08-23

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 为啥下跌？杭州市委书记被抓，现在查Guan Shang勾结

2021-08-17

近700的股价，你给上调到300美元？

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-07

$微博(WB)$这TM，什么意思啊？拉高出货？

2021-06-05

$AMC院线(AMC)$我日尼玛！半死不活的

2021-05-14

$京东(JD)$ 中概股真特么没法玩了！baba也是这样，跌跌不休。

2021-05-14

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 欸，垃圾！再怎么说也是中概股龙头了，落得这般田地，真丢人！

2021-04-22

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$只能这么想了：今天之所以拉升，有很大程度上跟政治环境有关。因为中美对抗加剧，与政府情报相关的pltr难免会炒作一番

2021-04-22

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ 为什么这种垃圾跟打鸡血一样涨？各个权重股都有气无力的阴跌，这种所谓成长股靠什么涨起来的？根本短期盈利无望好吗？

2021-04-22

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ 呵，神奇么？哥买涨的时候股价就暴跌，哥买跌的时候股价就暴涨

2021-04-01

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ 资金一直流出，股价是怎么涨上去的？

2021-04-01

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$垃圾公司！做多的时候阴跌，做空的时候拉涨

2021-03-24

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ 扶不起的阿斗！欸，割了吧

2021-03-24

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ **！**！潮水褪去就知道谁在裸泳了！什么女股神？女骗子罢了！

2021-03-01

利好茅台

库克下定决心，6条生产线从国内搬至印度，苹果为何要这样做？

2021-02-18

利好茅台！酱香型科技！

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-05

$AMD(AMD)$**！天天跌！

2021-02-04

$Twitter(TWTR)$艹！政治风险，盈利压力，股价是怎么涨上去的？川粉呢？

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为啥下跌？杭州市委书记被抓，现在查Guan Shang勾结","text":"$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 为啥下跌？杭州市委书记被抓，现在查Guan 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欸，垃圾！再怎么说也是中概股龙头了，落得这般田地，真丢人！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/196089587","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4241,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":376877119,"gmtCreate":1619105652831,"gmtModify":1619105652831,"author":{"id":"3501926253801087","authorId":"3501926253801087","name":"BrotherDeng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb8baf8ece4742237628c03bd9876be5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3501926253801087","authorIdStr":"3501926253801087"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>只能这么想了：今天之所以拉升，有很大程度上跟政治环境有关。因为中美对抗加剧，与政府情报相关的pltr难免会炒作一番","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>只能这么想了：今天之所以拉升，有很大程度上跟政治环境有关。因为中美对抗加剧，与政府情报相关的pltr难免会炒作一番","text":"$Palantir Technologies 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**！**！潮水褪去就知道谁在裸泳了！什么女股神？女骗子罢了！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/351663758","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1888,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":362150492,"gmtCreate":1614609299016,"gmtModify":1703478820589,"author":{"id":"3501926253801087","authorId":"3501926253801087","name":"BrotherDeng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb8baf8ece4742237628c03bd9876be5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3501926253801087","authorIdStr":"3501926253801087"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"利好茅台","listText":"利好茅台","text":"利好茅台","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/362150492","repostId":"2116555510","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2116555510","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614607193,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2116555510?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-01 21:59","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"库克下定决心，6条生产线从国内搬至印度，苹果为何要这样做？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2116555510","media":"腾讯新闻","summary":"而且截至目前，苹果已经将国内的6条生产线搬到了印度，导致很多国产供应商都出现了订单不足的情况。作为苹果公司的CEO，库克下定决心，这就意味着苹果确实有此意向， 那么苹果为何要这样做呢？对于库克来说，如何为苹果公司赚钱就是最要紧的任务，所以他下定决心将国内的6条生产线搬至印度也是在情理之中。","content":"<html><body><article><p>库克下定决心搬离中国生产线</p><p>在全球手机行业，有一家公司凭借着出色的销量和极低的成本，连续多年拿下了超过七成的利润。这家公司的名字叫做<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>，不仅是世界闻名的手机品牌，还是市值超过两万亿美元的科技巨头。事实上，正是因为其手机业务的完美表现，苹果才能获得这么高的市值。</p><p>相信大家对于苹果的手机产品都不陌生，它们有一个共同的名字，叫做iPhone。从初代iPhone开始，到现在最新的iPhone12，每一代iPhone的发布都会引起整个手机行业的关注，其销量自然也不会太差。</p><p>就拿今年的iPhone12来说，虽然发布之后颇有坎坷，并且被曝出了很多真实存在的问题，也可以说是缺陷，但是苹果却并没有因此而遭受损失，iPhone12的销量依然十分可观。这很好地反映了苹果的品牌实力，只要是iPhone，无论好坏都不缺乏热衷者。</p><p>不过，值得一提的是，根据最近这段时间苹果的表现来看，尽管iPhone12在国内卖得很好，但是库克却下定决心，要将国内的部分生产线搬走。而且截至目前，苹果已经将国内的6条生产线搬到了印度，导致很多国产供应商都出现了订单不足的情况。</p><p>对此，很多国人都感到莫名其妙，不明白苹果的举动到底是为了什么？要知道，自从苹果进入国内市场以来，经过这么多年的发展，早已形成了非常完善的产业链。一旦其中某个环节出现问题，肯定会牵一发而动全身，到时候谁都跑不了。</p><p>而现在苹果却有意从国内市场撤离生产线，这样的行为无疑是在打破正常运行的产业链，最终受损的将会是苹果和其诸多下游供应商。作为苹果公司的CEO，库克下定决心，这就意味着苹果确实有此意向， 那么苹果为何要这样做呢？</p><p>苹果为何要这样做？</p><p>6条生产线从国内搬至印度，乍一看不是什么大问题，因为苹果在国内的产业链肯定远不止6条生产线。但是这种行为却透露出了一个关键信号，苹果似乎更看重印度市场，不然它也不会专门跑去印度重新建设生产线。</p><p>富士康创始人郭台铭曾经说过一句话：一旦苹果撤出中国，将会有大批的国产企业面临破产的危机，必须要早做打算。这句话当时被看作是夸大其词，毕竟苹果的影响力还没有大到这个程度，但是客观来看，苹果的离开确实会造成一些不利的影响。</p><p>比如说国内的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002475\">立讯精密</a>和歌尔声学等公司，都是依靠苹果给予订单来获取相应的利润，如果将来苹果全面撤出国内，这些公司的发展肯定会受到一定的阻力。所以说，郭台铭的话还是有几分道理的，苹果这么做会给国内带来阻力。</p><p>至于苹果为何要这样做？答案很简单，无非是为了追逐更低的成本和更高的利润。与我们国内市场相比，苹果在印度建设生产线有一个非常明显的优势，那就是印度的劳动力成本十分低廉，苹果完全可以用更低的成本赚取更高的利润。</p><p>对于库克来说，如何为苹果公司赚钱就是最要紧的任务，所以他下定决心将国内的6条生产线搬至印度也是在情理之中。毕竟任何一家企业都无法忽视庞大利润的诱惑，苹果也不例外。</p><p>写在最后</p><p>综上所述，苹果撤离国内转而在印度建厂已经成了既定的事实，但是苹果却没有看出，印度市场有一个很大的问题。虽然印度劳动力的成本确实很低，但是其质量却参差不齐，能否按时完成规划好的工作也是两难之说，苹果的转移之路不会那么顺利。</p><p>对此，你们怎么看呢？欢迎留言和转发。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>库克下定决心，6条生产线从国内搬至印度，苹果为何要这样做？</title>\n<style 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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202103012209067b6db36e&s=b><strong>腾讯新闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>库克下定决心搬离中国生产线在全球手机行业，有一家公司凭借着出色的销量和极低的成本，连续多年拿下了超过七成的利润。这家公司的名字叫做苹果，不仅是世界闻名的手机品牌，还是市值超过两万亿美元的科技巨头。事实上，正是因为其手机业务的完美表现，苹果才能获得这么高的市值。相信大家对于苹果的手机产品都不陌生，它们有一个共同的名字，叫做iPhone。从初代iPhone开始，到现在最新的iPhone12，每一代...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202103012209067b6db36e&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a36880ebdc5c542d50adaa8d728eaf0","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果","09086":"华夏纳指-U","03086":"华夏纳指"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202103012209067b6db36e&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2116555510","content_text":"库克下定决心搬离中国生产线在全球手机行业，有一家公司凭借着出色的销量和极低的成本，连续多年拿下了超过七成的利润。这家公司的名字叫做苹果，不仅是世界闻名的手机品牌，还是市值超过两万亿美元的科技巨头。事实上，正是因为其手机业务的完美表现，苹果才能获得这么高的市值。相信大家对于苹果的手机产品都不陌生，它们有一个共同的名字，叫做iPhone。从初代iPhone开始，到现在最新的iPhone12，每一代iPhone的发布都会引起整个手机行业的关注，其销量自然也不会太差。就拿今年的iPhone12来说，虽然发布之后颇有坎坷，并且被曝出了很多真实存在的问题，也可以说是缺陷，但是苹果却并没有因此而遭受损失，iPhone12的销量依然十分可观。这很好地反映了苹果的品牌实力，只要是iPhone，无论好坏都不缺乏热衷者。不过，值得一提的是，根据最近这段时间苹果的表现来看，尽管iPhone12在国内卖得很好，但是库克却下定决心，要将国内的部分生产线搬走。而且截至目前，苹果已经将国内的6条生产线搬到了印度，导致很多国产供应商都出现了订单不足的情况。对此，很多国人都感到莫名其妙，不明白苹果的举动到底是为了什么？要知道，自从苹果进入国内市场以来，经过这么多年的发展，早已形成了非常完善的产业链。一旦其中某个环节出现问题，肯定会牵一发而动全身，到时候谁都跑不了。而现在苹果却有意从国内市场撤离生产线，这样的行为无疑是在打破正常运行的产业链，最终受损的将会是苹果和其诸多下游供应商。作为苹果公司的CEO，库克下定决心，这就意味着苹果确实有此意向， 那么苹果为何要这样做呢？苹果为何要这样做？6条生产线从国内搬至印度，乍一看不是什么大问题，因为苹果在国内的产业链肯定远不止6条生产线。但是这种行为却透露出了一个关键信号，苹果似乎更看重印度市场，不然它也不会专门跑去印度重新建设生产线。富士康创始人郭台铭曾经说过一句话：一旦苹果撤出中国，将会有大批的国产企业面临破产的危机，必须要早做打算。这句话当时被看作是夸大其词，毕竟苹果的影响力还没有大到这个程度，但是客观来看，苹果的离开确实会造成一些不利的影响。比如说国内的立讯精密和歌尔声学等公司，都是依靠苹果给予订单来获取相应的利润，如果将来苹果全面撤出国内，这些公司的发展肯定会受到一定的阻力。所以说，郭台铭的话还是有几分道理的，苹果这么做会给国内带来阻力。至于苹果为何要这样做？答案很简单，无非是为了追逐更低的成本和更高的利润。与我们国内市场相比，苹果在印度建设生产线有一个非常明显的优势，那就是印度的劳动力成本十分低廉，苹果完全可以用更低的成本赚取更高的利润。对于库克来说，如何为苹果公司赚钱就是最要紧的任务，所以他下定决心将国内的6条生产线搬至印度也是在情理之中。毕竟任何一家企业都无法忽视庞大利润的诱惑，苹果也不例外。写在最后综上所述，苹果撤离国内转而在印度建厂已经成了既定的事实，但是苹果却没有看出，印度市场有一个很大的问题。虽然印度劳动力的成本确实很低，但是其质量却参差不齐，能否按时完成规划好的工作也是两难之说，苹果的转移之路不会那么顺利。对此，你们怎么看呢？欢迎留言和转发。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"03086":0.6,"09086":0.6,"AAPL":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6022,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":384879084,"gmtCreate":1613642281148,"gmtModify":1613642281148,"author":{"id":"3501926253801087","authorId":"3501926253801087","name":"BrotherDeng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb8baf8ece4742237628c03bd9876be5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3501926253801087","authorIdStr":"3501926253801087"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"利好茅台！酱香型科技！","listText":"利好茅台！酱香型科技！","text":"利好茅台！酱香型科技！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/384879084","repostId":"2112869242","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":939,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":380878584,"gmtCreate":1612535785448,"gmtModify":1703763284053,"author":{"id":"3501926253801087","authorId":"3501926253801087","name":"BrotherDeng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb8baf8ece4742237628c03bd9876be5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3501926253801087","authorIdStr":"3501926253801087"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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09:55","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"林园：\"消费估值过高\"判断是错的，茅台比黄金值得投资","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2094251519","media":"证券市场红周刊","summary":"中国的消费品、医药行业内会诞生“下一个茅台”，因为中国有14亿人口基数，但中国的消费品公司的销售额目前远低于海外同类市场。5G通讯、人工智能、新能源等领域也会诞生大牛股，这些是改变我们生活的公司，但是操作起来风险较大，在这些行业内我会控制风险，通过可转债迂回进场。","content":"<blockquote>核心观点：我们目前处在牛市初期，趋势投资的常识是，当所有人都挣钱了，才是牛市顶部出现的标志。中国的消费品、医药行业内会诞生“下一个茅台”，因为中国有14亿人口基数，但中国的消费品公司的销售额目前远低于海外同类市场。5G通讯、人工智能、新能源等领域也会诞生大牛股，这些是改变我们生活的公司，但是操作起来风险较大，在这些行业内我会控制风险，通过可转债迂回进场。</blockquote><p><b>牛市初期 不怕赶顶，上涨趋势一旦形成就很难改变</b></p><p>今天我的演讲题目是《牛市中赚大钱，最重要的是什么？》，今天这里来了这么多人，每次看到这么多人我就高兴，因为没有你们捧场，中国股市哪来那么多成交量呢！</p><p>有些投资者问我对市场的看法，我依然认为现在是牛市初期。我们是来炒股的，我不能说现在是熊市，说熊市就没人来了。我今年57岁了，即使是人造牛市，我也希望能来一个。但是，说牛市初期是我个人的判断，只是一种对趋势的判断。例如过去10年美股指数持续上行，所以我们认为这个趋势是一个牛市。</p><p>为什么我认为现在是牛市初期呢？因为现在中国股民中有90%的人不挣钱，在这种情况下，认为牛市到达了顶部，我是不赞同的。怎么样是牛市顶部？是当所有人都赚钱了，才到牛市顶部，这属于趋势投资中的常识性概念。但我知道总有一天我会说错，因为顶只有一个，有可能最后说在了顶上。但我今天说牛市，说对的概率还是很大的。</p><p>就像美股市场，很多机构包括海外投资人认为美股积累了太多涨幅，可能处在顶部阶段，对此我还真不赞同。我认为这种上涨趋势一旦形成就很难改变。“趋势”这个东西说重要很重要，说不重要也不重要，对于我们做投资的人来说，我们要关注当下，今天这个位置会不会赶顶？我认为大概率不会。至于一些方向性的错误，例如选错了行业，那么不管什么市场都会失败，这和牛市、熊市没有关系。我说中国股市现在是牛市，只是看指数的高或低，至于下面的每个细分行业，还是要区别对待。</p><p>至于牛市初期会走多久，我不好判断，我只能说现在不是牛市顶部，不要怕现在会赶顶。我们国家正在大力发展新能源、智慧城市、芯片等行业，这些行业光靠喊话是不行的，需要拿出真金白银去支持。这些资金是怎么来的？是泡沫堆出来的，任何行业只有出现泡沫，才有大力发展的可能，所以不要怕出现泡沫，我希望股市出现泡沫。</p><p>至于怎样选择高成长行业？这非常容易，中国现在缺什么？缺高端技术、缺资金，所以我们和欧美国家比那些需要资金推动的产业，例如投资，我们有明显落后的趋势。但按人口基数对比，中国有明显的优势，我们有全球1/4的人口，所以聚焦在“人多”这个优势上做投资就不会出错，这也是为什么我不断强调要找和“嘴巴”相关的公司。在健康、吃饭和消费这方面的投入，穷人和富人的花销差不多，这是刚需，是每个人必须投入的花费。中国人口基数在这摆着呢，抓住这点，就抓住了未来长期趋势的重点。在这点上，我不会说错，中国的14亿人口的医药、饮食和消费是有数据做支撑的，我们在此也做了长期布局。</p><p><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider20201226/124/w554h370/20201226/87f5-kftfpiw5609509.png\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"370\"></p><p>而对于医药行业，我判断<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600056\">中国医药</a>产业还有30年的大发展，30年后我不知道，而像新能源、5G、AI、智慧城市、人工智能等行业也都是未来的投资方向，但我觉得风险较高，所以不会长期投资，而会通过可转债迂回的参与。</p><p>相比之下，我认为金融、地产板块则存在着一定风险。我认为它们的估值相对较高，因为中国的银行和地产的利润已经做到了全球第一，没有理由再说它们便宜。便宜和贵是一个基本的判断，比较典型的便宜的行业，例如医药，我们国家的医药企业只有国外的百分之一不到，这是估值便宜的一个体现。但金融和地产行业中，这些企业已经把钱挣到了，估值相对来说就不便宜了。</p><p><b>“消费品估值过高”的判断大概率是错的，“下一个茅台”可能就在消费和医疗健康领域</b></p><p>前段时间有个记者采访我说，有一篇研究报告中提到“不为消费品唱赞歌”，作者的意思是消费品目前的股价太高了，对此我的第一反应是，他说错的概率很大，这是在跟全球过去几十年的规律作对。中国有14亿人口，现在消费品公司的这点销售额你都说高了，那我们的消费品公司就无法赶超国外同类公司了。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABT\">雅培</a>公司在过去几十年间，股价上涨了几万倍，只要员工拿得住，现在都是大富翁。相比之下，中国的同类公司市值小太多了。</p><p>如果有哪个愣头青说茅台要跌，我敢说茅台不会。茅台比黄金的投资价值还高，茅台是黄金的爷爷，因为黄金买得到，茅台酒买不到。但还是那句话，顶部只有一个。对我来说，我当初1块钱买的，现在能分3块钱的红利，这是很好的生意，所以我不会卖。在产品还没有生产出来的时候，就有货车在门口等着运走的只有茅台，全球就这一家。</p><p>也有投资人问我，下一个茅台会出现在哪里？我认为，茅台是消费品，消费品有产生大牛股的基因。还有我一直说的和人口有关系的医疗健康领域，一定会出现大牛股。至于短期内，我们会看到很多涨幅超过茅台的公司，但长期能够获胜的不是这些公司。另外，包括人工智能、新能源、5G通讯等行业，它们会改变我们的生活，也会出现大牛股，但就怕投资者抓不住。而从生活中去发现，投资一些和“嘴巴”相关的公司最简单。</p><p>判断企业估值贵不贵要看核心产品，要刨开其他产品的收入，看主营产品的ROE高不高，投资者要火眼金睛的从财报中把企业核心的1-2个产品挑出来，这些核心产品的ROE高才是真正的好公司。</p><p>如果说PE整体升幅大了，确实是风险因素，买入的时候要小心。如果是自己挣的钱，或者已经在市场上挣了很多钱了，对于这样的公司可以闭着眼睛买，出错的概率非常小。但如果是一个新手的话，还是应该相对谨慎，可能会承受不住市场的波动，做出卖出的操作。</p><p>我没有遇到过在PE很贵的时候对看好的企业做布局的情况，因为我不在很热的时候，去投资一个行业。一家企业的PE较高，是因为盈利没有发挥出来，如果盈利发挥出来，PE会随之降低，所以我们要对企业未来的持续盈利能力有一个准确地判断。就像一些核心的消费品龙头企业，市场认为，目前的PE可能较高了，需要几十年才能回本，但这取决于投资者怎么看待，我个人相信企业的大股东，他们在过去几十年中帮企业赚了钱，值得相信。</p><p><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider20201226/124/w554h370/20201226/08f6-kftfpiw5609724.png\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"370\"></p><p><b>可转债目前价格合适，未来12个月机会不错</b></p><p>明年该干什么，当下该干什么，是我们做投资要研究的重点。做长期投资，我想着20年后发财，但20年时间太慢了。当下我做的是“炒股票”，我是炒家出身，一些热门的行业我都炒。那么炒股的过程中就要研究未来6-12个月的市场规律，我知道未来12个月钱会流向哪里。今天我在埋伏着什么行业呢？我认为未来有可能炒作资金会去的，比如清洁能源、新能源、环保、智能家居、5G通信等行业，这些行业中总有一个是这些炒家会去参与的。</p><p>但炒股是存在风险的，首先是千万别在一些破公司上炒成股东。另外，风险是我们看不到的，我们炒股研究的相对短期的趋势，一家企业未来几年的发展，我可能看不到，但未来几个月甚至1年的好坏我能看到，所以炒股的风险相对较小。那么怎么去操作这些短线的投资呢？这里面是有方法的，不要去炒作正股，在注册制实施后，这类上市公司数量会越来越多，炒作这些股票失败的概率更大，包括我说的那些行业，亏钱的概率比赚钱的概率更大。</p><p>好的方法是我去年在《红周刊》投资峰会上讲到的，大家可以投资可转债，现在各个行业的公司都发了可转债，我们就对各个行业的可转债做了配置，构建了一个可转债组合，其中包含了30只到50只可转债。每年短线资金都会在可转债里面炒作，所以我就在里面等着，只要我提到的行业中的上市公司不是都倒闭了，就有可能收获很高的收益。过去12个月，有几只可转债我已经来回做了4次了，每次都挣30%多。</p><p>按照今天这个价格，可转债是有很好的机会的，对于想布局的投资者来说，要大胆埋伏，不要怕，敢做才是对的，目前投资可转债的风险是非常小的。如果做组合的话，跌到90元就买，甚至在106元以下我认为都是安全的，然后涨到30%就卖出。在座的各位都不是大机构的资金量，这些钱完全可以容下。当然也要筛选一下，选择那些发展前景还不错的公司，例如人工智能、通信行业的公司。</p><p>这个可转债组合里面包含了各个行业，所以一定是行的，所有行业都沦陷的只有2018年，碰到2018年的情况，采用我这个办法也是亏损的，只会亏损的比例比指数少一点。但2021年不会像2018年一样，今天的可转债价格是很合适的。</p><p>而且如果有的可转债一直不赚钱，大不了按照债券来处理；有的时候正股涨了几倍，可转债也会跟着上涨，涨幅不会小于股票。所以投资者如果惧怕风险，投资可转债是一个很好的方法。在资本市场上挣钱要找到诀窍，我就要做一些弯腰捡钱的事，现在就是弯腰捡钱的机会。但长期来看，这不是我们的目标，长远的目标是挣企业长期发展的钱。</p><p><b>先挣百分之十几，赚了钱才会无往而不利</b></p><p>在股市中挣企业发展的钱，最关键的是什么？我认为，如果你是苦命的人，你之前炒股没挣到什么钱，首先要做的是疗伤，不要惧怕股市，你先在短期内把钱挣了，先挣个百分之十几；然后去炒一炒，再遇到个大牛市，挣个几倍也不出奇。投资者在股市上亏钱了，损失的不光是资金，还有斗志，很多人甚至不敢去看股票账户，这就很难享受牛市的上涨。</p><p>我听到一个人亏了钱，我也很头疼，我喜欢那些赚了钱的人，因为他们赚了钱后愿意赌一把，反而越赌越赢。在中国股市中操作，说是赌也对，说是投资也对，这两者之间没有明确的界限。只要我们算清楚风险再去赌，就是获益的机会。所以在投资中，我们的实际方法很简单，就是把风险规避做到极致。疫情最严重的时候，我要求我们公司的“穷人”——就是那些资产在3000万以下的人，都买一个1年期的健康保险，我担心他们在上班的途中或者跑业务的过程中患上新冠肺炎。我很惧怕风险。</p><p>另外，对于手里的股票涨幅不小的投资者来说，想要坚定持股也很难，这是基因的问题。有些人觉得天能塌下来，我们就觉得天塌不下来，这是基因决定的东西，也没什么办法。不过你们要相信老林，我没有说错过。</p><p>现在最重要的是知道自己该干什么。最近，我有个同学，说要离婚，我说你不该现在离婚，你就20多万块钱，离婚了就没有了，也错过了很好的资金上涨的阶段，但他还是离了。如果最开始他听我的话做投资，我做的最好的那几年他都赶上了，所以他对不起老林，他把钱花了。</p><p>我还有一个同学，在1990年的时候生孩子，我当时给他包了一个1000元的红包，我们那天开玩笑说，当年的1000元钱相当于现在给了他1个亿。所以要坚定持有，长期持有，雪球是越滚越大的。但后来我和那个同学说，我说你的人生观是对的，赚的钱就是用来花的，只是这让我们这些喜欢金钱的人有点沮丧。</p><p>今天来说，我希望你们都赚钱，你们今天能够赚到钱我非常高兴。市场有人说我割韭菜，但我说的很多东西都是公开资料，看好和“嘴巴”相关的企业的数据也都是公开的。我希望把我的方法分享给你们，给你们一点启发，再加上你们的勤奋和坚持，再能够克服人性的贪婪，就能获得长期不错的回报。最怕克服不了贪婪，今天早上我遇到一个投资者，他说买我们的基金是为了做配置，我说你现在说好是做配置，就怕最后不做配置，去做别的去了。很多人以为自己能够控制住风险，做到的没有几个人，最终都变成了亏损。所以控制自己的情绪也很重要。</p>","source":"lsy1571701096748","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>林园：\"消费估值过高\"判断是错的，茅台比黄金值得投资</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ 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{color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n林园：\"消费估值过高\"判断是错的，茅台比黄金值得投资\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-12-27 09:55 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20201226A0I60500><strong>证券市场红周刊</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>核心观点：我们目前处在牛市初期，趋势投资的常识是，当所有人都挣钱了，才是牛市顶部出现的标志。中国的消费品、医药行业内会诞生“下一个茅台”，因为中国有14亿人口基数，但中国的消费品公司的销售额目前远低于海外同类市场。5G通讯、人工智能、新能源等领域也会诞生大牛股，这些是改变我们生活的公司，但是操作起来风险较大，在这些行业内我会控制风险，通过可转债迂回进场。牛市初期 不怕赶顶，上涨趋势一旦形成就很难...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20201226A0I60500\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af47ab6c10e46f0aea6733871f311696","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","518880":"黄金ETF","600519":"贵州茅台","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","GLD":"SPDR黄金ETF","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","IAU":"黄金信托ETF(iShares)"},"source_url":"https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20201226A0I60500","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2094251519","content_text":"核心观点：我们目前处在牛市初期，趋势投资的常识是，当所有人都挣钱了，才是牛市顶部出现的标志。中国的消费品、医药行业内会诞生“下一个茅台”，因为中国有14亿人口基数，但中国的消费品公司的销售额目前远低于海外同类市场。5G通讯、人工智能、新能源等领域也会诞生大牛股，这些是改变我们生活的公司，但是操作起来风险较大，在这些行业内我会控制风险，通过可转债迂回进场。牛市初期 不怕赶顶，上涨趋势一旦形成就很难改变今天我的演讲题目是《牛市中赚大钱，最重要的是什么？》，今天这里来了这么多人，每次看到这么多人我就高兴，因为没有你们捧场，中国股市哪来那么多成交量呢！有些投资者问我对市场的看法，我依然认为现在是牛市初期。我们是来炒股的，我不能说现在是熊市，说熊市就没人来了。我今年57岁了，即使是人造牛市，我也希望能来一个。但是，说牛市初期是我个人的判断，只是一种对趋势的判断。例如过去10年美股指数持续上行，所以我们认为这个趋势是一个牛市。为什么我认为现在是牛市初期呢？因为现在中国股民中有90%的人不挣钱，在这种情况下，认为牛市到达了顶部，我是不赞同的。怎么样是牛市顶部？是当所有人都赚钱了，才到牛市顶部，这属于趋势投资中的常识性概念。但我知道总有一天我会说错，因为顶只有一个，有可能最后说在了顶上。但我今天说牛市，说对的概率还是很大的。就像美股市场，很多机构包括海外投资人认为美股积累了太多涨幅，可能处在顶部阶段，对此我还真不赞同。我认为这种上涨趋势一旦形成就很难改变。“趋势”这个东西说重要很重要，说不重要也不重要，对于我们做投资的人来说，我们要关注当下，今天这个位置会不会赶顶？我认为大概率不会。至于一些方向性的错误，例如选错了行业，那么不管什么市场都会失败，这和牛市、熊市没有关系。我说中国股市现在是牛市，只是看指数的高或低，至于下面的每个细分行业，还是要区别对待。至于牛市初期会走多久，我不好判断，我只能说现在不是牛市顶部，不要怕现在会赶顶。我们国家正在大力发展新能源、智慧城市、芯片等行业，这些行业光靠喊话是不行的，需要拿出真金白银去支持。这些资金是怎么来的？是泡沫堆出来的，任何行业只有出现泡沫，才有大力发展的可能，所以不要怕出现泡沫，我希望股市出现泡沫。至于怎样选择高成长行业？这非常容易，中国现在缺什么？缺高端技术、缺资金，所以我们和欧美国家比那些需要资金推动的产业，例如投资，我们有明显落后的趋势。但按人口基数对比，中国有明显的优势，我们有全球1/4的人口，所以聚焦在“人多”这个优势上做投资就不会出错，这也是为什么我不断强调要找和“嘴巴”相关的公司。在健康、吃饭和消费这方面的投入，穷人和富人的花销差不多，这是刚需，是每个人必须投入的花费。中国人口基数在这摆着呢，抓住这点，就抓住了未来长期趋势的重点。在这点上，我不会说错，中国的14亿人口的医药、饮食和消费是有数据做支撑的，我们在此也做了长期布局。而对于医药行业，我判断中国医药产业还有30年的大发展，30年后我不知道，而像新能源、5G、AI、智慧城市、人工智能等行业也都是未来的投资方向，但我觉得风险较高，所以不会长期投资，而会通过可转债迂回的参与。相比之下，我认为金融、地产板块则存在着一定风险。我认为它们的估值相对较高，因为中国的银行和地产的利润已经做到了全球第一，没有理由再说它们便宜。便宜和贵是一个基本的判断，比较典型的便宜的行业，例如医药，我们国家的医药企业只有国外的百分之一不到，这是估值便宜的一个体现。但金融和地产行业中，这些企业已经把钱挣到了，估值相对来说就不便宜了。“消费品估值过高”的判断大概率是错的，“下一个茅台”可能就在消费和医疗健康领域前段时间有个记者采访我说，有一篇研究报告中提到“不为消费品唱赞歌”，作者的意思是消费品目前的股价太高了，对此我的第一反应是，他说错的概率很大，这是在跟全球过去几十年的规律作对。中国有14亿人口，现在消费品公司的这点销售额你都说高了，那我们的消费品公司就无法赶超国外同类公司了。雅培公司在过去几十年间，股价上涨了几万倍，只要员工拿得住，现在都是大富翁。相比之下，中国的同类公司市值小太多了。如果有哪个愣头青说茅台要跌，我敢说茅台不会。茅台比黄金的投资价值还高，茅台是黄金的爷爷，因为黄金买得到，茅台酒买不到。但还是那句话，顶部只有一个。对我来说，我当初1块钱买的，现在能分3块钱的红利，这是很好的生意，所以我不会卖。在产品还没有生产出来的时候，就有货车在门口等着运走的只有茅台，全球就这一家。也有投资人问我，下一个茅台会出现在哪里？我认为，茅台是消费品，消费品有产生大牛股的基因。还有我一直说的和人口有关系的医疗健康领域，一定会出现大牛股。至于短期内，我们会看到很多涨幅超过茅台的公司，但长期能够获胜的不是这些公司。另外，包括人工智能、新能源、5G通讯等行业，它们会改变我们的生活，也会出现大牛股，但就怕投资者抓不住。而从生活中去发现，投资一些和“嘴巴”相关的公司最简单。判断企业估值贵不贵要看核心产品，要刨开其他产品的收入，看主营产品的ROE高不高，投资者要火眼金睛的从财报中把企业核心的1-2个产品挑出来，这些核心产品的ROE高才是真正的好公司。如果说PE整体升幅大了，确实是风险因素，买入的时候要小心。如果是自己挣的钱，或者已经在市场上挣了很多钱了，对于这样的公司可以闭着眼睛买，出错的概率非常小。但如果是一个新手的话，还是应该相对谨慎，可能会承受不住市场的波动，做出卖出的操作。我没有遇到过在PE很贵的时候对看好的企业做布局的情况，因为我不在很热的时候，去投资一个行业。一家企业的PE较高，是因为盈利没有发挥出来，如果盈利发挥出来，PE会随之降低，所以我们要对企业未来的持续盈利能力有一个准确地判断。就像一些核心的消费品龙头企业，市场认为，目前的PE可能较高了，需要几十年才能回本，但这取决于投资者怎么看待，我个人相信企业的大股东，他们在过去几十年中帮企业赚了钱，值得相信。可转债目前价格合适，未来12个月机会不错明年该干什么，当下该干什么，是我们做投资要研究的重点。做长期投资，我想着20年后发财，但20年时间太慢了。当下我做的是“炒股票”，我是炒家出身，一些热门的行业我都炒。那么炒股的过程中就要研究未来6-12个月的市场规律，我知道未来12个月钱会流向哪里。今天我在埋伏着什么行业呢？我认为未来有可能炒作资金会去的，比如清洁能源、新能源、环保、智能家居、5G通信等行业，这些行业中总有一个是这些炒家会去参与的。但炒股是存在风险的，首先是千万别在一些破公司上炒成股东。另外，风险是我们看不到的，我们炒股研究的相对短期的趋势，一家企业未来几年的发展，我可能看不到，但未来几个月甚至1年的好坏我能看到，所以炒股的风险相对较小。那么怎么去操作这些短线的投资呢？这里面是有方法的，不要去炒作正股，在注册制实施后，这类上市公司数量会越来越多，炒作这些股票失败的概率更大，包括我说的那些行业，亏钱的概率比赚钱的概率更大。好的方法是我去年在《红周刊》投资峰会上讲到的，大家可以投资可转债，现在各个行业的公司都发了可转债，我们就对各个行业的可转债做了配置，构建了一个可转债组合，其中包含了30只到50只可转债。每年短线资金都会在可转债里面炒作，所以我就在里面等着，只要我提到的行业中的上市公司不是都倒闭了，就有可能收获很高的收益。过去12个月，有几只可转债我已经来回做了4次了，每次都挣30%多。按照今天这个价格，可转债是有很好的机会的，对于想布局的投资者来说，要大胆埋伏，不要怕，敢做才是对的，目前投资可转债的风险是非常小的。如果做组合的话，跌到90元就买，甚至在106元以下我认为都是安全的，然后涨到30%就卖出。在座的各位都不是大机构的资金量，这些钱完全可以容下。当然也要筛选一下，选择那些发展前景还不错的公司，例如人工智能、通信行业的公司。这个可转债组合里面包含了各个行业，所以一定是行的，所有行业都沦陷的只有2018年，碰到2018年的情况，采用我这个办法也是亏损的，只会亏损的比例比指数少一点。但2021年不会像2018年一样，今天的可转债价格是很合适的。而且如果有的可转债一直不赚钱，大不了按照债券来处理；有的时候正股涨了几倍，可转债也会跟着上涨，涨幅不会小于股票。所以投资者如果惧怕风险，投资可转债是一个很好的方法。在资本市场上挣钱要找到诀窍，我就要做一些弯腰捡钱的事，现在就是弯腰捡钱的机会。但长期来看，这不是我们的目标，长远的目标是挣企业长期发展的钱。先挣百分之十几，赚了钱才会无往而不利在股市中挣企业发展的钱，最关键的是什么？我认为，如果你是苦命的人，你之前炒股没挣到什么钱，首先要做的是疗伤，不要惧怕股市，你先在短期内把钱挣了，先挣个百分之十几；然后去炒一炒，再遇到个大牛市，挣个几倍也不出奇。投资者在股市上亏钱了，损失的不光是资金，还有斗志，很多人甚至不敢去看股票账户，这就很难享受牛市的上涨。我听到一个人亏了钱，我也很头疼，我喜欢那些赚了钱的人，因为他们赚了钱后愿意赌一把，反而越赌越赢。在中国股市中操作，说是赌也对，说是投资也对，这两者之间没有明确的界限。只要我们算清楚风险再去赌，就是获益的机会。所以在投资中，我们的实际方法很简单，就是把风险规避做到极致。疫情最严重的时候，我要求我们公司的“穷人”——就是那些资产在3000万以下的人，都买一个1年期的健康保险，我担心他们在上班的途中或者跑业务的过程中患上新冠肺炎。我很惧怕风险。另外，对于手里的股票涨幅不小的投资者来说，想要坚定持股也很难，这是基因的问题。有些人觉得天能塌下来，我们就觉得天塌不下来，这是基因决定的东西，也没什么办法。不过你们要相信老林，我没有说错过。现在最重要的是知道自己该干什么。最近，我有个同学，说要离婚，我说你不该现在离婚，你就20多万块钱，离婚了就没有了，也错过了很好的资金上涨的阶段，但他还是离了。如果最开始他听我的话做投资，我做的最好的那几年他都赶上了，所以他对不起老林，他把钱花了。我还有一个同学，在1990年的时候生孩子，我当时给他包了一个1000元的红包，我们那天开玩笑说，当年的1000元钱相当于现在给了他1个亿。所以要坚定持有，长期持有，雪球是越滚越大的。但后来我和那个同学说，我说你的人生观是对的，赚的钱就是用来花的，只是这让我们这些喜欢金钱的人有点沮丧。今天来说，我希望你们都赚钱，你们今天能够赚到钱我非常高兴。市场有人说我割韭菜，但我说的很多东西都是公开资料，看好和“嘴巴”相关的企业的数据也都是公开的。我希望把我的方法分享给你们，给你们一点启发，再加上你们的勤奋和坚持，再能够克服人性的贪婪，就能获得长期不错的回报。最怕克服不了贪婪，今天早上我遇到一个投资者，他说买我们的基金是为了做配置，我说你现在说好是做配置，就怕最后不做配置，去做别的去了。很多人以为自己能够控制住风险，做到的没有几个人，最终都变成了亏损。所以控制自己的情绪也很重要。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159934":0.9,"518880":0.9,"600519":0.9,"DUST":0.9,"GDX":0.9,"GLD":0.9,"IAU":0.9,"NUGT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1373,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":926397910,"gmtCreate":1586972040230,"gmtModify":1704362807061,"author":{"id":"3501926253801087","authorId":"3501926253801087","name":"BrotherDeng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb8baf8ece4742237628c03bd9876be5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3501926253801087","authorIdStr":"3501926253801087"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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