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WEIWEI
06-22 21:26
周末打仗了,还能持有吗
WEIWEI
06-13
$超微电脑(SMCI)$
英伟达都涨,你怎么不涨
WEIWEI
06-01
$Strategy(MSTR)$
大饼一直在跌,明天会怎么yang
WEIWEI
05-27
等比特币大会后可以空
WEIWEI
05-23
$Strategy(MSTR)$
怎么一直跌,有大佬解读吗
WEIWEI
05-23
$Strategy(MSTR)$
币不是没怎么跌吗,这股怎么一直跌
WEIWEI
05-21
$超微电脑(SMCI)$
要跑路了吗
WEIWEI
05-16
$超微电脑(SMCI)$
把我打跑了,然后拉起来?
WEIWEI
05-03
是不是不能持有啦
失望才刚刚开始,建议卖出超微电脑
WEIWEI
2021-02-05
$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 今天要跌嘛
WEIWEI
2020-07-08
$信也科技(FINV)$ 目标6美丽
WEIWEI
2020-07-01
$信也科技(FINV)$ 今天要起飞了
WEIWEI
2019-05-14
$优信(UXIN)终于可以买入了
WEIWEI
2019-05-01
$优信(UXIN)$ 阿里什么时候入股啊
WEIWEI
2019-04-29
$优信(UXIN)$ 今天要到3.3
WEIWEI
2019-04-01
$优信(UXIN)$ 在啊,春天要来了
WEIWEI
2019-03-14
$优信(UXIN)$ 今天可以涨20%吗
WEIWEI
2019-03-11
$迅雷(XNET)$ 财报好不涨?
WEIWEI
2019-02-22
$优信(UXIN)$ 在不上车就来不及了
WEIWEI
2019-01-21
$优信(UXIN)$ 该涨啦
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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大饼一直在跌,明天会怎么yang","text":"$Strategy(MSTR)$ 大饼一直在跌,明天会怎么yang","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/441314415539032","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":385,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":439456564019712,"gmtCreate":1748307639692,"gmtModify":1748308960531,"author":{"id":"3504586278076389","authorId":"3504586278076389","name":"WEIWEI","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a13436f62c065030a769a5eb98dd1bc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3504586278076389","authorIdStr":"3504586278076389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"等比特币大会后可以空","listText":"等比特币大会后可以空","text":"等比特币大会后可以空","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/439456564019712","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":513,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":438192132034928,"gmtCreate":1748015362884,"gmtModify":1748015364149,"author":{"id":"3504586278076389","authorId":"3504586278076389","name":"WEIWEI","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a13436f62c065030a769a5eb98dd1bc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3504586278076389","authorIdStr":"3504586278076389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">$Strategy(MSTR)$ </a> 怎么一直跌,有大佬解读吗","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">$Strategy(MSTR)$ </a> 怎么一直跌,有大佬解读吗","text":"$Strategy(MSTR)$ 怎么一直跌,有大佬解读吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/438192132034928","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1845,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4198978173958872","authorId":"4198978173958872","name":"日进七斗金","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f84311805762fec3cf0e88062616125c","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4198978173958872","authorIdStr":"4198978173958872"},"content":"恐慌性踩踏了,买MSTR的散户都是轻度btc参与用户,忠诚度不高,需要等btc稳住后才会补上。加仓就完了","text":"恐慌性踩踏了,买MSTR的散户都是轻度btc参与用户,忠诚度不高,需要等btc稳住后才会补上。加仓就完了","html":"恐慌性踩踏了,买MSTR的散户都是轻度btc参与用户,忠诚度不高,需要等btc稳住后才会补上。加仓就完了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":438186278793512,"gmtCreate":1748014306809,"gmtModify":1748014308108,"author":{"id":"3504586278076389","authorId":"3504586278076389","name":"WEIWEI","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a13436f62c065030a769a5eb98dd1bc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3504586278076389","authorIdStr":"3504586278076389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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要跑路了吗","text":"$超微电脑(SMCI)$ 要跑路了吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/437354329383696","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":539,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":435468502393032,"gmtCreate":1747324945767,"gmtModify":1747324947122,"author":{"id":"3504586278076389","authorId":"3504586278076389","name":"WEIWEI","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a13436f62c065030a769a5eb98dd1bc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3504586278076389","authorIdStr":"3504586278076389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">$超微电脑(SMCI)$ </a> 把我打跑了,然后拉起来?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">$超微电脑(SMCI)$ </a> 把我打跑了,然后拉起来?","text":"$超微电脑(SMCI)$ 把我打跑了,然后拉起来?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/435468502393032","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1239,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3575706957619671","authorId":"3575706957619671","name":"SleepingSun007","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19997acad19d3d7ce12054f9f30db9be","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575706957619671","authorIdStr":"3575706957619671"},"content":"不是这个三倍做多半导体还在下面呢为啥","text":"不是这个三倍做多半导体还在下面呢为啥","html":"不是这个三倍做多半导体还在下面呢为啥"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":431052762985200,"gmtCreate":1746259731642,"gmtModify":1746259733510,"author":{"id":"3504586278076389","authorId":"3504586278076389","name":"WEIWEI","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a13436f62c065030a769a5eb98dd1bc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3504586278076389","authorIdStr":"3504586278076389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"是不是不能持有啦","listText":"是不是不能持有啦","text":"是不是不能持有啦","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/431052762985200","repostId":"2532143678","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2532143678","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1746181638,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2532143678?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-05-02 18:27","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"失望才刚刚开始,建议卖出超微电脑","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2532143678","media":"美股研究社","summary":"由于客户行为,SMCI 无法坚持其最初的预期,但不知何故,他们仍将 2026 财年的销售额预期定为 400 亿美元,尽管该财年于 2026 年 6 月结束。高风险即使在昨天出现抛售之后,促使我们开始抛售的原因是,SMCI 可能无法实现其下调的 2025 财年预期。但初步业绩表明,本季度的营收预期可能会再次下调。如果 Nvidia 7 月季度业绩不及预期,SMCI 股价可能下跌。","content":"<html><body><article><p><strong>作者 | Tech Stock Pros</strong></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">超微电脑</a>公司( Super Micro Computer, Inc.,纳斯达克股票代码:SMCI)周三股价暴跌,盘前交易中暴跌17%,收盘下跌11%,此前该公司周二盘后公布了初步业绩。</p><p>该公司遭遇了服务器行业的最新打击,<span>每股收益</span>0.29美元至0.32美元,几乎是预期0.54美元的一半,营收为45亿美元至46亿美元,比预期的55亿美元低了约10亿美元。以下是管理层的解释:</p><p>在第三季度,一些延迟的客户平台决策将销售转移到第四季度……由于老一代产品导致库存储备较高。</p><p>这说明,H100以及更广泛的Hopper系列产品的需求已不如以往。事实上,H100的库存水平可能更高,这意味着SMCI无法下架H100,并因此受到冲击,其毛利率也将大幅下降220个基点。</p><p><strong>那么,让我们来看看这告诉我们什么。</strong></p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdKBibR2JMaxUNVoEYIawaicLcPgia7DNCvbkZ2UW7icKia7iaEBYibLoBH9m2tvI6bkqbEh7NtGPic58BHcsA/640?wx_fmt=png&from=appmsg\"/><p><strong>SMCI知名度较差</strong></p><p>早在二月份,SMCI 就将其 2025 财年(截至 6 月 30 日)的销售额预期从 260 亿美元下调至 300 亿美元,降至 235 亿美元至 250 亿美元。</p><p>首席执行官表示,预计公司的液体冷却业务将在未来 12 个月内继续表现良好,这将使公司 2026 财年的销售额达到 400 亿美元。远高于华尔街当时预期的 291.8 亿美元。</p><p>现在,我们认为,如果 SMCI 在三个月内第二次下调销售额预期,那么他们实际上对需求环境的可预见性很小。由于客户行为,SMCI 无法坚持其最初的预期,但不知何故,他们仍将 2026 财年的销售额预期定为 400 亿美元,尽管该财年于 2026 年 6 月结束。我们认为,他们有那么远的可预见性,但他们应该更强的短期可预见性却再次下降,这没有道理。下图显示了华尔街对 SMCI 本季度以及 25 财年和 26 财年的销售额的估计。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdLicLN25b1c2picoNWbSzxfWrBUv8p67kvd5MJ3rBMUtibhCNjJ2icd4n2GBuvZye3T5wD42D7jsDCEwg/640?wx_fmt=png&from=appmsg\"/><p>这第二次下跌使该股经历了自2月份下调业绩指引以来最糟糕的一天。现在,在2月份下调2025财年业绩指引后,该股大幅反弹,如下图所示,这诱使我们发出买入评级,但基本面信号表明风险过高。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdLicLN25b1c2picoNWbSzxfWrY6UBqVYUmn9JqV9gXfWxVlPTusarv7wwSBd8TEuhh2jNZYFL7ibgFow/640?wx_fmt=png&from=appmsg\"/><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdKBibR2JMaxUNVoEYIawaicLcrVAEs2bhwIEUP4FfvianI8UkwWsmGS8QGt9FUCfIVia1npfInK1SOWWQ/640?wx_fmt=png&from=appmsg\"/><p><strong>高风险</strong></p><p>即使在昨天出现抛售之后,促使我们开始抛售的原因是,SMCI 可能无法实现其下调的 2025 财年预期。</p><p>下图显示了 SMCI 公布的 2025 财年营收范围。到目前为止,如果我们计算每个季度的中间值营收,我们会发现,要达到 2025 财年 235 亿美元至 250 亿美元预期的低端,SMCI 必须在第四季度公布 73.5 亿美元的营收。</p><p>截至目前,我们还没有看到任何迹象表明这有可能实现。如果 SMCI 能够实现其最初对第三季度的预期,即当季营收 50 亿美元至 60 亿美元,每股收益 0.46 美元至 0.62 美元,那么实现 2025 财年的目标或许是可能的。但初步业绩表明,本季度的营收预期可能会再次下调。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdLicLN25b1c2picoNWbSzxfWr7AttHu0qMLee0XkTDV7v4yhERxMlX1efy57t78M1aPgCGdruiaZolbQ/640?wx_fmt=png&from=appmsg\"/><p>如果 Nvidia 7 月季度业绩不及预期,SMCI 股价可能下跌。</p><p>我们认为,如果我们对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a> ( NVDA ) 7月季度业绩指引低于预期的预测得以实现,SMCI 股价也可能会下跌。因此,我们认为5月底前该股下行风险过大,不建议投资者买入,尽管目前的抛售行为颇具吸引力。英伟达将于5月28日公布新季度业绩指引,届时应该会提供更清晰的解读。</p><p>我们还怀疑 SMCI 可能会受到 H20 的新许可要求的影响,这可能影响了其本季度较高的库存水平。需要注意的是,虽然 SMCI 没有透露其在中国的具体销量,但我们知道,亚洲是继美国之后的第二大市场,如下图所示,数据来自上个季度的 10 季度。因此,我们怀疑监管变化可能也对亚洲市场产生了一些影响。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdLicLN25b1c2picoNWbSzxfWr0mCBX8g6H5wk6icBYF6uaxwaS0frQ7hnkxB0WzgphiaYYUicQWcflR3Qw/640?wx_fmt=png&from=appmsg\"/><p>我们并不太担心财报会影响 SMCI 的基本业务,但它可能会影响股价。</p><p>SMCI 的财务报告一直悬而未决;公司推迟了年度报告和审计报告的发布;受这些消息的影响,该公司的股价去年遭受抛售,在过去一年中下跌了近 63%,而同期标准普尔 500 指数 ( SP500 ) 上涨了 11%。此后,情况有所好转,公司于 11 月签约了新的审计师,并预期 2026 财年业绩将有所提高。2024 年下半年的事件告诉我们,SMCI 的客户群并未受到财务错误担忧的威胁;这些传言最多只能将股价拉回更具吸引力的水平。</p><p>我们认为,SMCI面临的另一个威胁是竞争带来的定价压力,尤其是如果其他ODM厂商能够以更低的利润率复制SMCI的做法。我们已经知道,SMCI和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">戴尔</a>(DELL)的定价策略存在竞争性,相互构成压力。除了已经存在的对人工智能基础设施支出放缓的担忧之外,这可能会给SMCI带来额外的风险。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdKBibR2JMaxUNVoEYIawaicLczbSMU66CbrBjDq7jpr5zsiclLE4DkRGuL9TVwK0r2tbvibNaKK4AzxHw/640?wx_fmt=png&from=appmsg\"/><p><strong>结论</strong>SMCI计划于 5 月 6 日(即下周)公布其官方财报,届时我们将更清楚地了解管理层对需求环境的看法。</p><p>我们认为基本面预示着美国经济放缓,但我们也知道,过去 SMCI 曾表现出反弹趋势,此前投资者希望人工智能增长前景依然强劲,因此消化了负面因素。</p><p>Meta Platforms ( META ) 和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a> ( MSFT ) 周三公布财报后,该股应该会提供更有利的退出时机。这两家公司在盘前交易中分别飙升 6% 和 9%,向更广泛的市场发出信号,表明人工智能支出和需求依然健康。我们认为,投资者应该趁机退出该股,待 2025 财年的风险得到消化后再入市。</p><p>【如需和我们交流可后台回复“进群”加社群】</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/dR7EpbvovdJlQNwm5fnHWnfblqB1P5B3gLTjg6j6dT5IyOFclcldYqPQickKMUqicdaXvibXdEb4OibV97CAwGO6TQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg\"/><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdJkLSIwAcXmF2Q0WyGtwRliaZJS6GyvXRzSh4vEJBjjc8GbdYvZ6PERict2NKDbFmmehS5LbJ66jZFg/640?wx_fmt=png&from=appmsg\"/><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/dR7EpbvovdLt0fplojSTcIf4vTY1fP5f5VhIsL3QI5iaHIficMHKVzpaxPOM0yB24Zgs1PJlLHXFs5UXKRic0iaTxA/640?wx_fmt=gif&from=appmsg\"/></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>失望才刚刚开始,建议卖出超微电脑</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n失望才刚刚开始,建议卖出超微电脑\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-05-02 18:27 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250502183522a46fe452&s=b><strong>美股研究社</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者 | Tech Stock Pros超微电脑公司( Super Micro Computer, Inc.,纳斯达克股票代码:SMCI)周三股价暴跌,盘前交易中暴跌17%,收盘下跌11%,此前该公司周二盘后公布了初步业绩。该公司遭遇了服务器行业的最新打击,每股收益0.29美元至0.32美元,几乎是预期0.54美元的一半,营收为45亿美元至46亿美元,比预期的55亿美元低了约10亿美元。以下是...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250502183522a46fe452&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250502183522a46fe452&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2532143678","content_text":"作者 | Tech Stock Pros超微电脑公司( Super Micro Computer, Inc.,纳斯达克股票代码:SMCI)周三股价暴跌,盘前交易中暴跌17%,收盘下跌11%,此前该公司周二盘后公布了初步业绩。该公司遭遇了服务器行业的最新打击,每股收益0.29美元至0.32美元,几乎是预期0.54美元的一半,营收为45亿美元至46亿美元,比预期的55亿美元低了约10亿美元。以下是管理层的解释:在第三季度,一些延迟的客户平台决策将销售转移到第四季度……由于老一代产品导致库存储备较高。这说明,H100以及更广泛的Hopper系列产品的需求已不如以往。事实上,H100的库存水平可能更高,这意味着SMCI无法下架H100,并因此受到冲击,其毛利率也将大幅下降220个基点。那么,让我们来看看这告诉我们什么。SMCI知名度较差早在二月份,SMCI 就将其 2025 财年(截至 6 月 30 日)的销售额预期从 260 亿美元下调至 300 亿美元,降至 235 亿美元至 250 亿美元。首席执行官表示,预计公司的液体冷却业务将在未来 12 个月内继续表现良好,这将使公司 2026 财年的销售额达到 400 亿美元。远高于华尔街当时预期的 291.8 亿美元。现在,我们认为,如果 SMCI 在三个月内第二次下调销售额预期,那么他们实际上对需求环境的可预见性很小。由于客户行为,SMCI 无法坚持其最初的预期,但不知何故,他们仍将 2026 财年的销售额预期定为 400 亿美元,尽管该财年于 2026 年 6 月结束。我们认为,他们有那么远的可预见性,但他们应该更强的短期可预见性却再次下降,这没有道理。下图显示了华尔街对 SMCI 本季度以及 25 财年和 26 财年的销售额的估计。这第二次下跌使该股经历了自2月份下调业绩指引以来最糟糕的一天。现在,在2月份下调2025财年业绩指引后,该股大幅反弹,如下图所示,这诱使我们发出买入评级,但基本面信号表明风险过高。高风险即使在昨天出现抛售之后,促使我们开始抛售的原因是,SMCI 可能无法实现其下调的 2025 财年预期。下图显示了 SMCI 公布的 2025 财年营收范围。到目前为止,如果我们计算每个季度的中间值营收,我们会发现,要达到 2025 财年 235 亿美元至 250 亿美元预期的低端,SMCI 必须在第四季度公布 73.5 亿美元的营收。截至目前,我们还没有看到任何迹象表明这有可能实现。如果 SMCI 能够实现其最初对第三季度的预期,即当季营收 50 亿美元至 60 亿美元,每股收益 0.46 美元至 0.62 美元,那么实现 2025 财年的目标或许是可能的。但初步业绩表明,本季度的营收预期可能会再次下调。如果 Nvidia 7 月季度业绩不及预期,SMCI 股价可能下跌。我们认为,如果我们对英伟达 ( NVDA ) 7月季度业绩指引低于预期的预测得以实现,SMCI 股价也可能会下跌。因此,我们认为5月底前该股下行风险过大,不建议投资者买入,尽管目前的抛售行为颇具吸引力。英伟达将于5月28日公布新季度业绩指引,届时应该会提供更清晰的解读。我们还怀疑 SMCI 可能会受到 H20 的新许可要求的影响,这可能影响了其本季度较高的库存水平。需要注意的是,虽然 SMCI 没有透露其在中国的具体销量,但我们知道,亚洲是继美国之后的第二大市场,如下图所示,数据来自上个季度的 10 季度。因此,我们怀疑监管变化可能也对亚洲市场产生了一些影响。我们并不太担心财报会影响 SMCI 的基本业务,但它可能会影响股价。SMCI 的财务报告一直悬而未决;公司推迟了年度报告和审计报告的发布;受这些消息的影响,该公司的股价去年遭受抛售,在过去一年中下跌了近 63%,而同期标准普尔 500 指数 ( SP500 ) 上涨了 11%。此后,情况有所好转,公司于 11 月签约了新的审计师,并预期 2026 财年业绩将有所提高。2024 年下半年的事件告诉我们,SMCI 的客户群并未受到财务错误担忧的威胁;这些传言最多只能将股价拉回更具吸引力的水平。我们认为,SMCI面临的另一个威胁是竞争带来的定价压力,尤其是如果其他ODM厂商能够以更低的利润率复制SMCI的做法。我们已经知道,SMCI和戴尔(DELL)的定价策略存在竞争性,相互构成压力。除了已经存在的对人工智能基础设施支出放缓的担忧之外,这可能会给SMCI带来额外的风险。结论SMCI计划于 5 月 6 日(即下周)公布其官方财报,届时我们将更清楚地了解管理层对需求环境的看法。我们认为基本面预示着美国经济放缓,但我们也知道,过去 SMCI 曾表现出反弹趋势,此前投资者希望人工智能增长前景依然强劲,因此消化了负面因素。Meta Platforms ( META ) 和微软 ( MSFT ) 周三公布财报后,该股应该会提供更有利的退出时机。这两家公司在盘前交易中分别飙升 6% 和 9%,向更广泛的市场发出信号,表明人工智能支出和需求依然健康。我们认为,投资者应该趁机退出该股,待 2025 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