WEIWEI的个人主页 - 老虎社区

WEIWEI

WEIWEI

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IP属地：浙江

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08-06 21:52

$超微电脑(SMCI)$ 之前说的回购呢

08-06 21:50

多少能加仓呢

07-26

$超微电脑(SMCI)$ 会是炸裂财报嘛

07-21

3800了以太坊

07-21

$SharpLink Gaming(SBET)$ 今天会是什么行情呢

07-18

$SharpLink Gaming(SBET)$ 发生了啥，怎么快速下跌

07-11

$英伟达(NVDA)$ ceo大量抛售是什么信号

06-23

为什么

超微电脑美股盘前下跌3.4%此前公司宣布拟发行20亿美元可转换优先债券。

06-22

周末打仗了，还能持有吗

06-13

$超微电脑(SMCI)$ 英伟达都涨，你怎么不涨

06-01

$Strategy(MSTR)$ 大饼一直在跌，明天会怎么yang

05-27

等比特币大会后可以空

05-23

$Strategy(MSTR)$ 怎么一直跌，有大佬解读吗

05-23

$Strategy(MSTR)$ 币不是没怎么跌吗，这股怎么一直跌

05-21

$超微电脑(SMCI)$ 要跑路了吗

05-16

$超微电脑(SMCI)$ 把我打跑了，然后拉起来？

05-03

是不是不能持有啦

失望才刚刚开始，建议卖出超微电脑

2021-02-05

$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 今天要跌嘛

2020-07-08

$信也科技(FINV)$ 目标6美丽

2020-07-01

$信也科技(FINV)$ 今天要起飞了

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0053671581.USD":"摩根大通美国小盘成长股 A(dist)","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","BK4588":"碎股","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 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大饼一直在跌，明天会怎么yang","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/441314415539032","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":773,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":439456564019712,"gmtCreate":1748307639692,"gmtModify":1748308960531,"author":{"id":"3504586278076389","authorId":"3504586278076389","name":"WEIWEI","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a13436f62c065030a769a5eb98dd1bc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3504586278076389","authorIdStr":"3504586278076389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"等比特币大会后可以空","listText":"等比特币大会后可以空","text":"等比特币大会后可以空","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/439456564019712","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1107,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":438192132034928,"gmtCreate":1748015362884,"gmtModify":1748015364149,"author":{"id":"3504586278076389","authorId":"3504586278076389","name":"WEIWEI","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a13436f62c065030a769a5eb98dd1bc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3504586278076389","authorIdStr":"3504586278076389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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怎么一直跌，有大佬解读吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/438192132034928","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2075,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4198978173958872","authorId":"4198978173958872","name":"日进七斗金","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f84311805762fec3cf0e88062616125c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4198978173958872","authorIdStr":"4198978173958872"},"content":"恐慌性踩踏了，买MSTR的散户都是轻度btc参与用户，忠诚度不高，需要等btc稳住后才会补上。加仓就完了","text":"恐慌性踩踏了，买MSTR的散户都是轻度btc参与用户，忠诚度不高，需要等btc稳住后才会补上。加仓就完了","html":"恐慌性踩踏了，买MSTR的散户都是轻度btc参与用户，忠诚度不高，需要等btc稳住后才会补上。加仓就完了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":438186278793512,"gmtCreate":1748014306809,"gmtModify":1748014308108,"author":{"id":"3504586278076389","authorId":"3504586278076389","name":"WEIWEI","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a13436f62c065030a769a5eb98dd1bc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3504586278076389","authorIdStr":"3504586278076389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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把我打跑了，然后拉起来？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/435468502393032","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1589,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3575706957619671","authorId":"3575706957619671","name":"SleepingSun007","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19997acad19d3d7ce12054f9f30db9be","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575706957619671","authorIdStr":"3575706957619671"},"content":"不是这个三倍做多半导体还在下面呢为啥","text":"不是这个三倍做多半导体还在下面呢为啥","html":"不是这个三倍做多半导体还在下面呢为啥"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":431052762985200,"gmtCreate":1746259731642,"gmtModify":1746259733510,"author":{"id":"3504586278076389","authorId":"3504586278076389","name":"WEIWEI","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a13436f62c065030a769a5eb98dd1bc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3504586278076389","authorIdStr":"3504586278076389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"是不是不能持有啦","listText":"是不是不能持有啦","text":"是不是不能持有啦","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/431052762985200","repostId":"2532143678","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2532143678","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1746181638,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2532143678?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-05-02 18:27","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"失望才刚刚开始，建议卖出超微电脑","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2532143678","media":"美股研究社","summary":"由于客户行为，SMCI 无法坚持其最初的预期，但不知何故，他们仍将 2026 财年的销售额预期定为 400 亿美元，尽管该财年于 2026 年 6 月结束。高风险即使在昨天出现抛售之后，促使我们开始抛售的原因是，SMCI 可能无法实现其下调的 2025 财年预期。但初步业绩表明，本季度的营收预期可能会再次下调。如果 Nvidia 7 月季度业绩不及预期，SMCI 股价可能下跌。","content":"<html><body><article><p><strong>作者 | Tech Stock Pros</strong></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">超微电脑</a>公司（ Super Micro Computer, Inc.，纳斯达克股票代码：SMCI）周三股价暴跌，盘前交易中暴跌17%，收盘下跌11%，此前该公司周二盘后公布了初步业绩。</p><p>该公司遭遇了服务器行业的最新打击，<span>每股收益</span>0.29美元至0.32美元，几乎是预期0.54美元的一半，营收为45亿美元至46亿美元，比预期的55亿美元低了约10亿美元。以下是管理层的解释：</p><p>在第三季度，一些延迟的客户平台决策将销售转移到第四季度……由于老一代产品导致库存储备较高。</p><p>这说明，H100以及更广泛的Hopper系列产品的需求已不如以往。事实上，H100的库存水平可能更高，这意味着SMCI无法下架H100，并因此受到冲击，其毛利率也将大幅下降220个基点。</p><p><strong>那么，让我们来看看这告诉我们什么。</strong></p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdKBibR2JMaxUNVoEYIawaicLcPgia7DNCvbkZ2UW7icKia7iaEBYibLoBH9m2tvI6bkqbEh7NtGPic58BHcsA/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg\"/><p><strong>SMCI知名度较差</strong></p><p>早在二月份，SMCI 就将其 2025 财年（截至 6 月 30 日）的销售额预期从 260 亿美元下调至 300 亿美元，降至 235 亿美元至 250 亿美元。</p><p>首席执行官表示，预计公司的液体冷却业务将在未来 12 个月内继续表现良好，这将使公司 2026 财年的销售额达到 400 亿美元。远高于华尔街当时预期的 291.8 亿美元。</p><p>现在，我们认为，如果 SMCI 在三个月内第二次下调销售额预期，那么他们实际上对需求环境的可预见性很小。由于客户行为，SMCI 无法坚持其最初的预期，但不知何故，他们仍将 2026 财年的销售额预期定为 400 亿美元，尽管该财年于 2026 年 6 月结束。我们认为，他们有那么远的可预见性，但他们应该更强的短期可预见性却再次下降，这没有道理。下图显示了华尔街对 SMCI 本季度以及 25 财年和 26 财年的销售额的估计。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdLicLN25b1c2picoNWbSzxfWrBUv8p67kvd5MJ3rBMUtibhCNjJ2icd4n2GBuvZye3T5wD42D7jsDCEwg/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg\"/><p>这第二次下跌使该股经历了自2月份下调业绩指引以来最糟糕的一天。现在，在2月份下调2025财年业绩指引后，该股大幅反弹，如下图所示，这诱使我们发出买入评级，但基本面信号表明风险过高。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdLicLN25b1c2picoNWbSzxfWrY6UBqVYUmn9JqV9gXfWxVlPTusarv7wwSBd8TEuhh2jNZYFL7ibgFow/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg\"/><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdKBibR2JMaxUNVoEYIawaicLcrVAEs2bhwIEUP4FfvianI8UkwWsmGS8QGt9FUCfIVia1npfInK1SOWWQ/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg\"/><p><strong>高风险</strong></p><p>即使在昨天出现抛售之后，促使我们开始抛售的原因是，SMCI 可能无法实现其下调的 2025 财年预期。</p><p>下图显示了 SMCI 公布的 2025 财年营收范围。到目前为止，如果我们计算每个季度的中间值营收，我们会发现，要达到 2025 财年 235 亿美元至 250 亿美元预期的低端，SMCI 必须在第四季度公布 73.5 亿美元的营收。</p><p>截至目前，我们还没有看到任何迹象表明这有可能实现。如果 SMCI 能够实现其最初对第三季度的预期，即当季营收 50 亿美元至 60 亿美元，每股收益 0.46 美元至 0.62 美元，那么实现 2025 财年的目标或许是可能的。但初步业绩表明，本季度的营收预期可能会再次下调。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdLicLN25b1c2picoNWbSzxfWr7AttHu0qMLee0XkTDV7v4yhERxMlX1efy57t78M1aPgCGdruiaZolbQ/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg\"/><p>如果 Nvidia 7 月季度业绩不及预期，SMCI 股价可能下跌。</p><p>我们认为，如果我们对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a> ( NVDA ) 7月季度业绩指引低于预期的预测得以实现，SMCI 股价也可能会下跌。因此，我们认为5月底前该股下行风险过大，不建议投资者买入，尽管目前的抛售行为颇具吸引力。英伟达将于5月28日公布新季度业绩指引，届时应该会提供更清晰的解读。</p><p>我们还怀疑 SMCI 可能会受到 H20 的新许可要求的影响，这可能影响了其本季度较高的库存水平。需要注意的是，虽然 SMCI 没有透露其在中国的具体销量，但我们知道，亚洲是继美国之后的第二大市场，如下图所示，数据来自上个季度的 10 季度。因此，我们怀疑监管变化可能也对亚洲市场产生了一些影响。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdLicLN25b1c2picoNWbSzxfWr0mCBX8g6H5wk6icBYF6uaxwaS0frQ7hnkxB0WzgphiaYYUicQWcflR3Qw/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg\"/><p>我们并不太担心财报会影响 SMCI 的基本业务，但它可能会影响股价。</p><p>SMCI 的财务报告一直悬而未决；公司推迟了年度报告和审计报告的发布；受这些消息的影响，该公司的股价去年遭受抛售，在过去一年中下跌了近 63%，而同期标准普尔 500 指数 ( SP500 ) 上涨了 11%。此后，情况有所好转，公司于 11 月签约了新的审计师，并预期 2026 财年业绩将有所提高。2024 年下半年的事件告诉我们，SMCI 的客户群并未受到财务错误担忧的威胁；这些传言最多只能将股价拉回更具吸引力的水平。</p><p>我们认为，SMCI面临的另一个威胁是竞争带来的定价压力，尤其是如果其他ODM厂商能够以更低的利润率复制SMCI的做法。我们已经知道，SMCI和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">戴尔</a>（DELL）的定价策略存在竞争性，相互构成压力。除了已经存在的对人工智能基础设施支出放缓的担忧之外，这可能会给SMCI带来额外的风险。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdKBibR2JMaxUNVoEYIawaicLczbSMU66CbrBjDq7jpr5zsiclLE4DkRGuL9TVwK0r2tbvibNaKK4AzxHw/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg\"/><p><strong>结论</strong>SMCI计划于 5 月 6 日（即下周）公布其官方财报，届时我们将更清楚地了解管理层对需求环境的看法。</p><p>我们认为基本面预示着美国经济放缓，但我们也知道，过去 SMCI 曾表现出反弹趋势，此前投资者希望人工智能增长前景依然强劲，因此消化了负面因素。</p><p>Meta Platforms ( META ) 和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a> ( MSFT ) 周三公布财报后，该股应该会提供更有利的退出时机。这两家公司在盘前交易中分别飙升 6% 和 9%，向更广泛的市场发出信号，表明人工智能支出和需求依然健康。我们认为，投资者应该趁机退出该股，待 2025 财年的风险得到消化后再入市。</p><p>【如需和我们交流可后台回复“进群”加社群】</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/dR7EpbvovdJlQNwm5fnHWnfblqB1P5B3gLTjg6j6dT5IyOFclcldYqPQickKMUqicdaXvibXdEb4OibV97CAwGO6TQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg\"/><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdJkLSIwAcXmF2Q0WyGtwRliaZJS6GyvXRzSh4vEJBjjc8GbdYvZ6PERict2NKDbFmmehS5LbJ66jZFg/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg\"/><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/dR7EpbvovdLt0fplojSTcIf4vTY1fP5f5VhIsL3QI5iaHIficMHKVzpaxPOM0yB24Zgs1PJlLHXFs5UXKRic0iaTxA/640?wx_fmt=gif&amp;from=appmsg\"/></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>失望才刚刚开始，建议卖出超微电脑</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n失望才刚刚开始，建议卖出超微电脑\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-05-02 18:27 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250502183522a46fe452&s=b><strong>美股研究社</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者 | Tech Stock Pros超微电脑公司（ Super Micro Computer, Inc.，纳斯达克股票代码：SMCI）周三股价暴跌，盘前交易中暴跌17%，收盘下跌11%，此前该公司周二盘后公布了初步业绩。该公司遭遇了服务器行业的最新打击，每股收益0.29美元至0.32美元，几乎是预期0.54美元的一半，营收为45亿美元至46亿美元，比预期的55亿美元低了约10亿美元。以下是...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250502183522a46fe452&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4543":"AI","SMCI":"超微电脑","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","LU0053671581.USD":"摩根大通美国小盘成长股 A(dist)","BK4588":"碎股","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250502183522a46fe452&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2532143678","content_text":"作者 | Tech Stock Pros超微电脑公司（ Super Micro Computer, Inc.，纳斯达克股票代码：SMCI）周三股价暴跌，盘前交易中暴跌17%，收盘下跌11%，此前该公司周二盘后公布了初步业绩。该公司遭遇了服务器行业的最新打击，每股收益0.29美元至0.32美元，几乎是预期0.54美元的一半，营收为45亿美元至46亿美元，比预期的55亿美元低了约10亿美元。以下是管理层的解释：在第三季度，一些延迟的客户平台决策将销售转移到第四季度……由于老一代产品导致库存储备较高。这说明，H100以及更广泛的Hopper系列产品的需求已不如以往。事实上，H100的库存水平可能更高，这意味着SMCI无法下架H100，并因此受到冲击，其毛利率也将大幅下降220个基点。那么，让我们来看看这告诉我们什么。SMCI知名度较差早在二月份，SMCI 就将其 2025 财年（截至 6 月 30 日）的销售额预期从 260 亿美元下调至 300 亿美元，降至 235 亿美元至 250 亿美元。首席执行官表示，预计公司的液体冷却业务将在未来 12 个月内继续表现良好，这将使公司 2026 财年的销售额达到 400 亿美元。远高于华尔街当时预期的 291.8 亿美元。现在，我们认为，如果 SMCI 在三个月内第二次下调销售额预期，那么他们实际上对需求环境的可预见性很小。由于客户行为，SMCI 无法坚持其最初的预期，但不知何故，他们仍将 2026 财年的销售额预期定为 400 亿美元，尽管该财年于 2026 年 6 月结束。我们认为，他们有那么远的可预见性，但他们应该更强的短期可预见性却再次下降，这没有道理。下图显示了华尔街对 SMCI 本季度以及 25 财年和 26 财年的销售额的估计。这第二次下跌使该股经历了自2月份下调业绩指引以来最糟糕的一天。现在，在2月份下调2025财年业绩指引后，该股大幅反弹，如下图所示，这诱使我们发出买入评级，但基本面信号表明风险过高。高风险即使在昨天出现抛售之后，促使我们开始抛售的原因是，SMCI 可能无法实现其下调的 2025 财年预期。下图显示了 SMCI 公布的 2025 财年营收范围。到目前为止，如果我们计算每个季度的中间值营收，我们会发现，要达到 2025 财年 235 亿美元至 250 亿美元预期的低端，SMCI 必须在第四季度公布 73.5 亿美元的营收。截至目前，我们还没有看到任何迹象表明这有可能实现。如果 SMCI 能够实现其最初对第三季度的预期，即当季营收 50 亿美元至 60 亿美元，每股收益 0.46 美元至 0.62 美元，那么实现 2025 财年的目标或许是可能的。但初步业绩表明，本季度的营收预期可能会再次下调。如果 Nvidia 7 月季度业绩不及预期，SMCI 股价可能下跌。我们认为，如果我们对英伟达 ( NVDA ) 7月季度业绩指引低于预期的预测得以实现，SMCI 股价也可能会下跌。因此，我们认为5月底前该股下行风险过大，不建议投资者买入，尽管目前的抛售行为颇具吸引力。英伟达将于5月28日公布新季度业绩指引，届时应该会提供更清晰的解读。我们还怀疑 SMCI 可能会受到 H20 的新许可要求的影响，这可能影响了其本季度较高的库存水平。需要注意的是，虽然 SMCI 没有透露其在中国的具体销量，但我们知道，亚洲是继美国之后的第二大市场，如下图所示，数据来自上个季度的 10 季度。因此，我们怀疑监管变化可能也对亚洲市场产生了一些影响。我们并不太担心财报会影响 SMCI 的基本业务，但它可能会影响股价。SMCI 的财务报告一直悬而未决；公司推迟了年度报告和审计报告的发布；受这些消息的影响，该公司的股价去年遭受抛售，在过去一年中下跌了近 63%，而同期标准普尔 500 指数 ( SP500 ) 上涨了 11%。此后，情况有所好转，公司于 11 月签约了新的审计师，并预期 2026 财年业绩将有所提高。2024 年下半年的事件告诉我们，SMCI 的客户群并未受到财务错误担忧的威胁；这些传言最多只能将股价拉回更具吸引力的水平。我们认为，SMCI面临的另一个威胁是竞争带来的定价压力，尤其是如果其他ODM厂商能够以更低的利润率复制SMCI的做法。我们已经知道，SMCI和戴尔（DELL）的定价策略存在竞争性，相互构成压力。除了已经存在的对人工智能基础设施支出放缓的担忧之外，这可能会给SMCI带来额外的风险。结论SMCI计划于 5 月 6 日（即下周）公布其官方财报，届时我们将更清楚地了解管理层对需求环境的看法。我们认为基本面预示着美国经济放缓，但我们也知道，过去 SMCI 曾表现出反弹趋势，此前投资者希望人工智能增长前景依然强劲，因此消化了负面因素。Meta Platforms ( META ) 和微软 ( MSFT ) 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