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布鲁斯侯恩

布鲁斯侯恩

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布鲁斯侯恩

09-21 22:07

$奇瑞汽车(09973)$ 注意：2025年是中国对新能源汽车免征车辆购置税（下称“车购税”）的最后一年，明年起将恢复征税，

布鲁斯侯恩

09-21 21:20

第一张图是什么软件的截图

财报前瞻｜阴霾未散！大中华区与关税双重压力，耐克业绩面临考验

布鲁斯侯恩

09-21 09:09

$百事可乐(PEP)$ 在美国可口还是百事受欢迎？

布鲁斯侯恩

09-20

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 技术互补性构成了双方相互拓展生态的基础。英特尔在CPU领域数十年积累的x86生态系统，包括指令集架构、软件兼容性和开发者社区，与英伟达在AI加速计算和GPU技术方面的领先地位彼此契合。根据合作协议，英特尔将为英伟达定制x86架构CPU，这些处理器将被整合至英伟达AI基础设施平台，形成“英特尔CPU+英伟达AI技术”的强强联合。这种组合不仅能提升AI训练与推理效率，更重要的是解决了长期困扰行业的“架构碎片化”问题，为企业客户提供兼具性能与兼容性的一站式解决方案。

布鲁斯侯恩

09-17

$沃尔格林联合博姿(WBA)$ 灰色的是啥意思没有人交易吗

布鲁斯侯恩

09-17

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 加仓好机会

布鲁斯侯恩

09-16

$Bionano Genomics(BNGO)$ 一个公司抵不了一套la的独栋

布鲁斯侯恩

09-16

$Bionano Genomics(BNGO)$ 别人恐惧我贪婪一下行不

布鲁斯侯恩

09-16

$雾麻科技(ISPR)$ micheal wang是谁

布鲁斯侯恩

09-16

$雾麻科技(ISPR)$ 财报怎么样

布鲁斯侯恩

09-16

$Adobe(ADBE)$ 否极泰来

布鲁斯侯恩

09-15

$Adobe(ADBE)$ 垃圾啊

布鲁斯侯恩

09-15

$Dave & Buster(PLAY)$ 冷门股，

布鲁斯侯恩

09-15

$Canopy Growth Corporation(CGC)$ 这个公司2018年有3000亿市值？不敢想象爹这么多恐怖

布鲁斯侯恩

09-14

这条新闻为啥和本股相关？

布雷肯里奇酒厂与丹佛野马队开启第五年合作，推出全新烈酒系列，包括限量版野马队蜂蜜威士忌

布鲁斯侯恩

09-14

$标普500ETF(SPY)$ 炒这玩意是不是图省事

布鲁斯侯恩

09-14

$纳指100ETF(QQQ)$ 炒这个是图方便吧

布鲁斯侯恩

09-14

$雾麻科技(ISPR)$ 这玩意盘前是没有交易吗？

布鲁斯侯恩

09-14

$奥克斯电气(02580)$ 上市几天就来财报啊

布鲁斯侯恩

09-14

但你得抓得住短线

@等也是一种策略如何等在哪里等:以下是2025年迄今为止表现最差的纳斯达克100股票 💩 Trade Desk $TTD -61.6%🔴 Lululemon $LULU -58.2%🔴 Marvell $MRVL -39%🔴 Atlassian $TEAM -28.2%🔴 GlobalFoundries $GFS -26.2%🔴 On Semi $ON -23.5%🔴 Charter $CHTR -23.2%🔴 PayPal $PYPL -21.6%🔴 Adobe $ADBE -21.4%🔴 Regeneron $REGN -21.4%🔴

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tg-height=\"735\"/></p><p>毛利率收窄440个基点，这一表现略优于分析师预期的40.3%收缩幅度。尽管北美、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00021\">大中华</a>区及欧洲中东非洲市场销售额均出现双位数下滑，但实际降幅均控制在预期区间内。耐克公司表示，其全年销售额的下滑趋势开始缓解，这表明首席执行官埃利奥特·希尔的战略举措正在取得成效。</p><h2 id=\"id_3625713949\">本季度业绩预测</h2><p><strong>业绩预期</strong></p><p>耐克管理层率先释放出业绩预期信号，预计 2026 财年第一季度营收降幅将收窄至中等个位数水平。相较于 2025 财年第四季度那高达 11% 的同比降幅，这无疑是一个积极的信号，预示着耐克在市场调整中逐步找回节奏。综合 22 位分析师对营收的预测，2026Q1 的收入一致预期为 109.572 亿美元，这一数字凝聚着市场对耐克业务复苏的初步判断。</p><p>在毛利率方面，耐克面临着不小的压力，预计将下降 350 - 425 个基点，而其中关税因素就占据了 100 个基点的负面影响。这意味着，在原材料成本、生产运营费用以及市场竞争导致的价格策略调整之外，关税正成为侵蚀耐克利润空间的关键外部变量。</p><p><strong>市场现状分析</strong></p><p><strong>1、库存情况</strong></p><p>库存管理始终是零售行业的核心课题，耐克也不例外。尽管报告显示库存同比持平（2025 财年第三季度同比下降 2%），但整体库存水平仍高悬于高位，宛如达摩克利斯之剑，时刻影响着公司的运营效率与现金流。为化解这一难题，耐克已制定清晰计划，未来两个季度将继续大力削减库存，力求通过优化供应链流程，让库存周转回归健康轨道，提升资金使用效率，更好地响应市场需求变化。</p><p><strong>2、产品类别表现</strong></p><p>从产品类别细分视角来看，2025 财年第四季度呈现出明显的差异化表现。服装类产品同比下降 9%（2025 财年第三季度为 - 1%），相对而言，这一降幅小于鞋类产品 12% 的同比降幅（2025 财年第三季度为 - 9%）。这一现象背后，既映射出消费者时尚偏好的动态变迁，也反映出不同产品在市场竞争中面临的各异挑战与机遇。例如，可能随着运动生活方式的普及，消费者对功能性、设计感兼具的服装需求相对稳定，而鞋类市场则因款式更新换代快、潮流趋势影响大，面临更为激烈的竞争。</p><p><strong>3、地区市场表现</strong></p><p>大中华区：大中华区市场曾是耐克重要的增长引擎，如今却成为业绩增长的沉重包袱。2025 财年第四季度，耐克在大中华区的直营业务营收同比下降 15%（2025 财年第三季度为 - 11%），其中数字业务与门店业务分别同比下降 31%/6%（2025 财年第三季度为 - 20%/-6%）。深层次的市场重置，使得折扣力度不断加大，产品供应也相应减少，中国库存同比下降 11%。这一系列数据表明，耐克在大中华区不仅要应对本土运动品牌崛起带来的份额挤压，还要适应消费者购物习惯向线上转移、对产品性价比与个性化要求提升等复杂市场变化。</p><p>其他地区：与大中华区形成鲜明对比，北美、欧洲 - 中东 - 非洲和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002540\">亚太</a> - 拉丁美洲地区的假日订单呈现增长态势，彰显出这些区域市场需求的韧性与活力。消费者对运动服饰的热情在这些地区依然高涨，为耐克的业绩注入了一定的积极动能。然而，大中华区的疲软表现犹如巨石，极大程度上抵消了其他地区的增长成果，使得耐克全球业绩增长步伐依旧沉重。</p><p><strong>关税影响及应对策略</strong></p><p>关税已成为耐克在 2026 财年无法回避的重大挑战。耐克首席财务官 Matt Friend 明确指出，根据当前实施的新关税税率，预计耐克在 2026 财年的总增量成本将增加约 10 亿美元。为了化解这一成本危机，耐克正积极布局，多管齐下。</p><p>优化采购组合和生产分配：耐克计划到 2026 财年末，将中国对美国的进口占比从目前的 16% 降至高个位数水平。通过调整全球生产布局，分散采购来源，耐克试图削弱关税对成本的冲击，在全球范围内寻找更具成本优势与政策稳定性的生产基地，重塑供应链韧性。</p><p>合作减轻成本上升影响：单打独斗难以应对关税重压，耐克选择与供应商和零售合作伙伴携手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603118\">共进</a>。通过深度协作，共同优化供应链各个环节，削减不必要的开支，同时协商合理的价格分担机制，将成本上升对终端消费者的影响控制在最小范围，力求在保障产品市场竞争力的同时，维持各方合理利润空间。</p><p>分阶段提价：从 2025 年秋季开始，耐克分阶段实施提价策略，试图将部分关税成本转嫁给消费者。但这一策略需谨慎施行，提价幅度与时机的把握至关重要，一旦超出消费者心理承受范围，可能导致市场需求进一步萎缩，影响销售业绩与品牌形象。</p><h2 id=\"id_4291831784\">华尔街投行观点</h2><p>Piper Sandler 对耐克持乐观态度，将其目标价从 70.00 美元上调至 80.00 美元，并维持 “增持” 评级。该机构敏锐捕捉到，耐克 2026 财年第一季度销售指引预计中单位数下降，远优于华尔街此前预期的高单位数下降，这一积极偏差无疑增强了市场信心。同时，耐克假日批发订单趋势向上，是需求触底反弹的强烈信号。在产品端，耐克积极推出创新产品，优化经典产品组合，成效显著，2025 财年第四季度跑步类别销售增长高单位数，Air Force 1 系列也逐步企稳，这些都成为 Piper Sandler 看好耐克的有力支撑。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">花旗</a>将耐克的目标价从 57.00 美元上调至 68.00 美元，维持 “中性” 评级。花旗参考了耐克第四季度销售业绩超预期的表现，尽管毛利率略低于预期，但整体表现仍可圈可点。管理层预计第一季度报告销售额将下降中个位数，考虑到 100 基点的外汇顺风因素，花旗认为这一表现优于市场担忧。耐克假日订单量增加，批发客户对新产品和创新努力的积极反馈，都被花旗视为正面因素。不过，花旗也冷静指出，耐克直接面向消费者的销售预计在假日季节和整个 2026 财年将持续疲软，只是经典系列产品带来的最严重阻力已有所缓解。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>指出，管理层指引 2026 财年首季度报告收入将下降中个位数，毛利率收缩 350 至 425 个基点，销售及管理费用将小幅增长。经该行精密计算，首季每股收益约为 0.25 美元，低于市场共识 0.31 美元约 19%。这一预测反映出摩根大通对耐克在成本控制、收入增长等方面面临挑战的深刻洞察，也暗示了市场对耐克首季度业绩预期存在一定程度的高估风险。</p><p>Needham 在耐克公布每股收益 0.14 美元（略高于预期），尽管收入下降 11% 的情况下，将其目标价从 66.00 美元上调至 78.00 美元，维持 “买入” 评级。这表明 Needham 更看重耐克在盈利方面的超预期表现，认为公司在复杂市场环境下展现出了一定的成本控制与盈利能力韧性，未来有望凭借产品创新与市场策略调整实现业绩反转。</p><p>UBS 基于耐克库存水平改善的事实，将目标价从 56.00 美元上调至 63.00 美元，但鉴于对潜在关税影响的持续担忧，仍保持 “中性” 评级。这体现出 UBS 在评估耐克业绩时，对库存与关税两大关键因素的平衡考量，认为库存改善虽为利好，但关税不确定性犹如高悬之剑，限制了对耐克评级的进一步提升。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>将目标价从 61.00 美元上调至 64.00 美元，暗示耐克基本面可能正在企稳。然而，由于长期增长面临经典产品线清理和潜在关税影响等诸多不确定性，维持 “等权重” 评级。摩根士丹利认为，耐克在短期内虽有向好迹象，但要实现可持续的长期增长，仍需突破重重障碍，化解经典产品线库存积压与关税成本冲击等难题。</p><p>综上所述，华尔街投行对耐克 2026 财年第一季度业绩表现及未来发展观点各异。耐克在部分地区市场和产品类别上展现出的积极迹象，如假日订单增长、部分产品类别销售回暖等，为市场带来了一定信心。但大中华区市场的持续低迷以及关税成本的沉重压力，依然是高悬在耐克头顶的 “阴霾”。展望未来，随着耐克坚定不移地推进库存清理、产品创新和供应链优化等核心策略，其在 2026 财年的业绩表现充满变数，也必将成为市场持续关注的焦点。</p><p><em>此内容基于tiger AI及彭博数据生成，内容仅供参考。</em></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>财报前瞻｜阴霾未散！大中华区与关税双重压力，耐克业绩面临考验</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n财报前瞻｜阴霾未散！大中华区与关税双重压力，耐克业绩面临考验\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1017018787\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/decf3d8a922fc5c1c1d787bf8b36173f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">财报Agent </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-09-16 14:43</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>运动鞋巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NKE\">耐克</a>将于9月30日美股盘后发布2026财年第一季度财报。根据彭博分析师预期，耐克第一季度营收为110亿美元，调整后净利润为4.14亿美元，调整后EPS为0.28美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/126eb1f67ad6b17983347a94e77aa68f\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1161\" tg-height=\"393\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_698019781\">上季度业绩回顾</h2><p>第四财季财务数据显示，当季耐克实现营收111亿美元，同比下滑12%，但仍较市场预测的107.2亿美元高出3.8%。调整后每股收益0.14美元的降幅达86%，却以2美分的优势跑赢预期。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fa1c1ab4aa6428d642d77aa94569951\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1098\" tg-height=\"735\"/></p><p>毛利率收窄440个基点，这一表现略优于分析师预期的40.3%收缩幅度。尽管北美、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00021\">大中华</a>区及欧洲中东非洲市场销售额均出现双位数下滑，但实际降幅均控制在预期区间内。耐克公司表示，其全年销售额的下滑趋势开始缓解，这表明首席执行官埃利奥特·希尔的战略举措正在取得成效。</p><h2 id=\"id_3625713949\">本季度业绩预测</h2><p><strong>业绩预期</strong></p><p>耐克管理层率先释放出业绩预期信号，预计 2026 财年第一季度营收降幅将收窄至中等个位数水平。相较于 2025 财年第四季度那高达 11% 的同比降幅，这无疑是一个积极的信号，预示着耐克在市场调整中逐步找回节奏。综合 22 位分析师对营收的预测，2026Q1 的收入一致预期为 109.572 亿美元，这一数字凝聚着市场对耐克业务复苏的初步判断。</p><p>在毛利率方面，耐克面临着不小的压力，预计将下降 350 - 425 个基点，而其中关税因素就占据了 100 个基点的负面影响。这意味着，在原材料成本、生产运营费用以及市场竞争导致的价格策略调整之外，关税正成为侵蚀耐克利润空间的关键外部变量。</p><p><strong>市场现状分析</strong></p><p><strong>1、库存情况</strong></p><p>库存管理始终是零售行业的核心课题，耐克也不例外。尽管报告显示库存同比持平（2025 财年第三季度同比下降 2%），但整体库存水平仍高悬于高位，宛如达摩克利斯之剑，时刻影响着公司的运营效率与现金流。为化解这一难题，耐克已制定清晰计划，未来两个季度将继续大力削减库存，力求通过优化供应链流程，让库存周转回归健康轨道，提升资金使用效率，更好地响应市场需求变化。</p><p><strong>2、产品类别表现</strong></p><p>从产品类别细分视角来看，2025 财年第四季度呈现出明显的差异化表现。服装类产品同比下降 9%（2025 财年第三季度为 - 1%），相对而言，这一降幅小于鞋类产品 12% 的同比降幅（2025 财年第三季度为 - 9%）。这一现象背后，既映射出消费者时尚偏好的动态变迁，也反映出不同产品在市场竞争中面临的各异挑战与机遇。例如，可能随着运动生活方式的普及，消费者对功能性、设计感兼具的服装需求相对稳定，而鞋类市场则因款式更新换代快、潮流趋势影响大，面临更为激烈的竞争。</p><p><strong>3、地区市场表现</strong></p><p>大中华区：大中华区市场曾是耐克重要的增长引擎，如今却成为业绩增长的沉重包袱。2025 财年第四季度，耐克在大中华区的直营业务营收同比下降 15%（2025 财年第三季度为 - 11%），其中数字业务与门店业务分别同比下降 31%/6%（2025 财年第三季度为 - 20%/-6%）。深层次的市场重置，使得折扣力度不断加大，产品供应也相应减少，中国库存同比下降 11%。这一系列数据表明，耐克在大中华区不仅要应对本土运动品牌崛起带来的份额挤压，还要适应消费者购物习惯向线上转移、对产品性价比与个性化要求提升等复杂市场变化。</p><p>其他地区：与大中华区形成鲜明对比，北美、欧洲 - 中东 - 非洲和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002540\">亚太</a> - 拉丁美洲地区的假日订单呈现增长态势，彰显出这些区域市场需求的韧性与活力。消费者对运动服饰的热情在这些地区依然高涨，为耐克的业绩注入了一定的积极动能。然而，大中华区的疲软表现犹如巨石，极大程度上抵消了其他地区的增长成果，使得耐克全球业绩增长步伐依旧沉重。</p><p><strong>关税影响及应对策略</strong></p><p>关税已成为耐克在 2026 财年无法回避的重大挑战。耐克首席财务官 Matt Friend 明确指出，根据当前实施的新关税税率，预计耐克在 2026 财年的总增量成本将增加约 10 亿美元。为了化解这一成本危机，耐克正积极布局，多管齐下。</p><p>优化采购组合和生产分配：耐克计划到 2026 财年末，将中国对美国的进口占比从目前的 16% 降至高个位数水平。通过调整全球生产布局，分散采购来源，耐克试图削弱关税对成本的冲击，在全球范围内寻找更具成本优势与政策稳定性的生产基地，重塑供应链韧性。</p><p>合作减轻成本上升影响：单打独斗难以应对关税重压，耐克选择与供应商和零售合作伙伴携手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603118\">共进</a>。通过深度协作，共同优化供应链各个环节，削减不必要的开支，同时协商合理的价格分担机制，将成本上升对终端消费者的影响控制在最小范围，力求在保障产品市场竞争力的同时，维持各方合理利润空间。</p><p>分阶段提价：从 2025 年秋季开始，耐克分阶段实施提价策略，试图将部分关税成本转嫁给消费者。但这一策略需谨慎施行，提价幅度与时机的把握至关重要，一旦超出消费者心理承受范围，可能导致市场需求进一步萎缩，影响销售业绩与品牌形象。</p><h2 id=\"id_4291831784\">华尔街投行观点</h2><p>Piper Sandler 对耐克持乐观态度，将其目标价从 70.00 美元上调至 80.00 美元，并维持 “增持” 评级。该机构敏锐捕捉到，耐克 2026 财年第一季度销售指引预计中单位数下降，远优于华尔街此前预期的高单位数下降，这一积极偏差无疑增强了市场信心。同时，耐克假日批发订单趋势向上，是需求触底反弹的强烈信号。在产品端，耐克积极推出创新产品，优化经典产品组合，成效显著，2025 财年第四季度跑步类别销售增长高单位数，Air Force 1 系列也逐步企稳，这些都成为 Piper Sandler 看好耐克的有力支撑。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">花旗</a>将耐克的目标价从 57.00 美元上调至 68.00 美元，维持 “中性” 评级。花旗参考了耐克第四季度销售业绩超预期的表现，尽管毛利率略低于预期，但整体表现仍可圈可点。管理层预计第一季度报告销售额将下降中个位数，考虑到 100 基点的外汇顺风因素，花旗认为这一表现优于市场担忧。耐克假日订单量增加，批发客户对新产品和创新努力的积极反馈，都被花旗视为正面因素。不过，花旗也冷静指出，耐克直接面向消费者的销售预计在假日季节和整个 2026 财年将持续疲软，只是经典系列产品带来的最严重阻力已有所缓解。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>指出，管理层指引 2026 财年首季度报告收入将下降中个位数，毛利率收缩 350 至 425 个基点，销售及管理费用将小幅增长。经该行精密计算，首季每股收益约为 0.25 美元，低于市场共识 0.31 美元约 19%。这一预测反映出摩根大通对耐克在成本控制、收入增长等方面面临挑战的深刻洞察，也暗示了市场对耐克首季度业绩预期存在一定程度的高估风险。</p><p>Needham 在耐克公布每股收益 0.14 美元（略高于预期），尽管收入下降 11% 的情况下，将其目标价从 66.00 美元上调至 78.00 美元，维持 “买入” 评级。这表明 Needham 更看重耐克在盈利方面的超预期表现，认为公司在复杂市场环境下展现出了一定的成本控制与盈利能力韧性，未来有望凭借产品创新与市场策略调整实现业绩反转。</p><p>UBS 基于耐克库存水平改善的事实，将目标价从 56.00 美元上调至 63.00 美元，但鉴于对潜在关税影响的持续担忧，仍保持 “中性” 评级。这体现出 UBS 在评估耐克业绩时，对库存与关税两大关键因素的平衡考量，认为库存改善虽为利好，但关税不确定性犹如高悬之剑，限制了对耐克评级的进一步提升。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>将目标价从 61.00 美元上调至 64.00 美元，暗示耐克基本面可能正在企稳。然而，由于长期增长面临经典产品线清理和潜在关税影响等诸多不确定性，维持 “等权重” 评级。摩根士丹利认为，耐克在短期内虽有向好迹象，但要实现可持续的长期增长，仍需突破重重障碍，化解经典产品线库存积压与关税成本冲击等难题。</p><p>综上所述，华尔街投行对耐克 2026 财年第一季度业绩表现及未来发展观点各异。耐克在部分地区市场和产品类别上展现出的积极迹象，如假日订单增长、部分产品类别销售回暖等，为市场带来了一定信心。但大中华区市场的持续低迷以及关税成本的沉重压力，依然是高悬在耐克头顶的 “阴霾”。展望未来，随着耐克坚定不移地推进库存清理、产品创新和供应链优化等核心策略，其在 2026 财年的业绩表现充满变数，也必将成为市场持续关注的焦点。</p><p><em>此内容基于tiger AI及彭博数据生成，内容仅供参考。</em></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68ab55b396d2dcbb09b0c2d9d4f9ce61","relate_stocks":{"NKE":"耐克"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112021810","content_text":"运动鞋巨头耐克将于9月30日美股盘后发布2026财年第一季度财报。根据彭博分析师预期，耐克第一季度营收为110亿美元，调整后净利润为4.14亿美元，调整后EPS为0.28美元。上季度业绩回顾第四财季财务数据显示，当季耐克实现营收111亿美元，同比下滑12%，但仍较市场预测的107.2亿美元高出3.8%。调整后每股收益0.14美元的降幅达86%，却以2美分的优势跑赢预期。毛利率收窄440个基点，这一表现略优于分析师预期的40.3%收缩幅度。尽管北美、大中华区及欧洲中东非洲市场销售额均出现双位数下滑，但实际降幅均控制在预期区间内。耐克公司表示，其全年销售额的下滑趋势开始缓解，这表明首席执行官埃利奥特·希尔的战略举措正在取得成效。本季度业绩预测业绩预期耐克管理层率先释放出业绩预期信号，预计 2026 财年第一季度营收降幅将收窄至中等个位数水平。相较于 2025 财年第四季度那高达 11% 的同比降幅，这无疑是一个积极的信号，预示着耐克在市场调整中逐步找回节奏。综合 22 位分析师对营收的预测，2026Q1 的收入一致预期为 109.572 亿美元，这一数字凝聚着市场对耐克业务复苏的初步判断。在毛利率方面，耐克面临着不小的压力，预计将下降 350 - 425 个基点，而其中关税因素就占据了 100 个基点的负面影响。这意味着，在原材料成本、生产运营费用以及市场竞争导致的价格策略调整之外，关税正成为侵蚀耐克利润空间的关键外部变量。市场现状分析1、库存情况库存管理始终是零售行业的核心课题，耐克也不例外。尽管报告显示库存同比持平（2025 财年第三季度同比下降 2%），但整体库存水平仍高悬于高位，宛如达摩克利斯之剑，时刻影响着公司的运营效率与现金流。为化解这一难题，耐克已制定清晰计划，未来两个季度将继续大力削减库存，力求通过优化供应链流程，让库存周转回归健康轨道，提升资金使用效率，更好地响应市场需求变化。2、产品类别表现从产品类别细分视角来看，2025 财年第四季度呈现出明显的差异化表现。服装类产品同比下降 9%（2025 财年第三季度为 - 1%），相对而言，这一降幅小于鞋类产品 12% 的同比降幅（2025 财年第三季度为 - 9%）。这一现象背后，既映射出消费者时尚偏好的动态变迁，也反映出不同产品在市场竞争中面临的各异挑战与机遇。例如，可能随着运动生活方式的普及，消费者对功能性、设计感兼具的服装需求相对稳定，而鞋类市场则因款式更新换代快、潮流趋势影响大，面临更为激烈的竞争。3、地区市场表现大中华区：大中华区市场曾是耐克重要的增长引擎，如今却成为业绩增长的沉重包袱。2025 财年第四季度，耐克在大中华区的直营业务营收同比下降 15%（2025 财年第三季度为 - 11%），其中数字业务与门店业务分别同比下降 31%/6%（2025 财年第三季度为 - 20%/-6%）。深层次的市场重置，使得折扣力度不断加大，产品供应也相应减少，中国库存同比下降 11%。这一系列数据表明，耐克在大中华区不仅要应对本土运动品牌崛起带来的份额挤压，还要适应消费者购物习惯向线上转移、对产品性价比与个性化要求提升等复杂市场变化。其他地区：与大中华区形成鲜明对比，北美、欧洲 - 中东 - 非洲和亚太 - 拉丁美洲地区的假日订单呈现增长态势，彰显出这些区域市场需求的韧性与活力。消费者对运动服饰的热情在这些地区依然高涨，为耐克的业绩注入了一定的积极动能。然而，大中华区的疲软表现犹如巨石，极大程度上抵消了其他地区的增长成果，使得耐克全球业绩增长步伐依旧沉重。关税影响及应对策略关税已成为耐克在 2026 财年无法回避的重大挑战。耐克首席财务官 Matt Friend 明确指出，根据当前实施的新关税税率，预计耐克在 2026 财年的总增量成本将增加约 10 亿美元。为了化解这一成本危机，耐克正积极布局，多管齐下。优化采购组合和生产分配：耐克计划到 2026 财年末，将中国对美国的进口占比从目前的 16% 降至高个位数水平。通过调整全球生产布局，分散采购来源，耐克试图削弱关税对成本的冲击，在全球范围内寻找更具成本优势与政策稳定性的生产基地，重塑供应链韧性。合作减轻成本上升影响：单打独斗难以应对关税重压，耐克选择与供应商和零售合作伙伴携手共进。通过深度协作，共同优化供应链各个环节，削减不必要的开支，同时协商合理的价格分担机制，将成本上升对终端消费者的影响控制在最小范围，力求在保障产品市场竞争力的同时，维持各方合理利润空间。分阶段提价：从 2025 年秋季开始，耐克分阶段实施提价策略，试图将部分关税成本转嫁给消费者。但这一策略需谨慎施行，提价幅度与时机的把握至关重要，一旦超出消费者心理承受范围，可能导致市场需求进一步萎缩，影响销售业绩与品牌形象。华尔街投行观点Piper Sandler 对耐克持乐观态度，将其目标价从 70.00 美元上调至 80.00 美元，并维持 “增持” 评级。该机构敏锐捕捉到，耐克 2026 财年第一季度销售指引预计中单位数下降，远优于华尔街此前预期的高单位数下降，这一积极偏差无疑增强了市场信心。同时，耐克假日批发订单趋势向上，是需求触底反弹的强烈信号。在产品端，耐克积极推出创新产品，优化经典产品组合，成效显著，2025 财年第四季度跑步类别销售增长高单位数，Air Force 1 系列也逐步企稳，这些都成为 Piper Sandler 看好耐克的有力支撑。花旗将耐克的目标价从 57.00 美元上调至 68.00 美元，维持 “中性” 评级。花旗参考了耐克第四季度销售业绩超预期的表现，尽管毛利率略低于预期，但整体表现仍可圈可点。管理层预计第一季度报告销售额将下降中个位数，考虑到 100 基点的外汇顺风因素，花旗认为这一表现优于市场担忧。耐克假日订单量增加，批发客户对新产品和创新努力的积极反馈，都被花旗视为正面因素。不过，花旗也冷静指出，耐克直接面向消费者的销售预计在假日季节和整个 2026 财年将持续疲软，只是经典系列产品带来的最严重阻力已有所缓解。摩根大通指出，管理层指引 2026 财年首季度报告收入将下降中个位数，毛利率收缩 350 至 425 个基点，销售及管理费用将小幅增长。经该行精密计算，首季每股收益约为 0.25 美元，低于市场共识 0.31 美元约 19%。这一预测反映出摩根大通对耐克在成本控制、收入增长等方面面临挑战的深刻洞察，也暗示了市场对耐克首季度业绩预期存在一定程度的高估风险。Needham 在耐克公布每股收益 0.14 美元（略高于预期），尽管收入下降 11% 的情况下，将其目标价从 66.00 美元上调至 78.00 美元，维持 “买入” 评级。这表明 Needham 更看重耐克在盈利方面的超预期表现，认为公司在复杂市场环境下展现出了一定的成本控制与盈利能力韧性，未来有望凭借产品创新与市场策略调整实现业绩反转。UBS 基于耐克库存水平改善的事实，将目标价从 56.00 美元上调至 63.00 美元，但鉴于对潜在关税影响的持续担忧，仍保持 “中性” 评级。这体现出 UBS 在评估耐克业绩时，对库存与关税两大关键因素的平衡考量，认为库存改善虽为利好，但关税不确定性犹如高悬之剑，限制了对耐克评级的进一步提升。摩根士丹利将目标价从 61.00 美元上调至 64.00 美元，暗示耐克基本面可能正在企稳。然而，由于长期增长面临经典产品线清理和潜在关税影响等诸多不确定性，维持 “等权重” 评级。摩根士丹利认为，耐克在短期内虽有向好迹象，但要实现可持续的长期增长，仍需突破重重障碍，化解经典产品线库存积压与关税成本冲击等难题。综上所述，华尔街投行对耐克 2026 财年第一季度业绩表现及未来发展观点各异。耐克在部分地区市场和产品类别上展现出的积极迹象，如假日订单增长、部分产品类别销售回暖等，为市场带来了一定信心。但大中华区市场的持续低迷以及关税成本的沉重压力，依然是高悬在耐克头顶的 “阴霾”。展望未来，随着耐克坚定不移地推进库存清理、产品创新和供应链优化等核心策略，其在 2026 财年的业绩表现充满变数，也必将成为市场持续关注的焦点。此内容基于tiger 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