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人是鳝变得

人是鳝变得

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人是鳝变得

03-29

真心做市场莫要人前卖弄以卷己心

人是鳝变得

02-18

我得扛着轮椅跑

被DeepSeek惊醒后，交易员涌入香港期权做多中国资产！

人是鳝变得

2024-10-30

$特朗普媒体科技集团(DJT)$ 60 60 60 60

人是鳝变得

2024-02-09

还有谁拿命相信这个老巫婆？

“木头姐”继续唱多特斯拉：预计两年内推出机器人出租车服务

人是鳝变得

2023-12-12

反指来了

抱歉，原内容已删除

人是鳝变得

2023-11-20

$富时新加坡海峡指数(STI.SI)$

人是鳝变得

2023-09-28

抖音乱封号问题严重，因为一句话不中他意就封你俩月半年，所以从来不在抖音买东西

抱歉，原内容已删除

人是鳝变得

2023-09-28

一本正经的胡说八道，股票上涨的动力是价值，价值的本质是净资产收益率改革有什么用

可怕！这个指数20年里暴跌98%，逼近“归零”，改革要来了

人是鳝变得

2022-11-16

$Sea Ltd(SE)$ 回调一下吧一直涨是不健康的

人是鳝变得

2022-09-03

最好停止收购

微软收购动视暴雪将受英国反垄断机构深度调查

人是鳝变得

2022-07-28

下来吧我还有put$谷歌(GOOG)$

人是鳝变得

2022-07-16

需求也变了我原计划要买特斯拉疫情搞得我只能买爱玛越野

抱歉，原内容已删除

人是鳝变得

2022-07-15

‌$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$‌跌啊非等我进来你才跌是吧

人是鳝变得

2022-06-14

最后一句话血淋淋啊

盘前观察 | 美联储本周会打出哪种加息组合？

人是鳝变得

2022-06-11

美国人民生活在水深火热之中！我生活在，啥？我还活着？

鲍威尔要对通胀负责？拜登果然“推锅”美联储

人是鳝变得

2022-06-01

‌$美国铝业(AA)$‌全球工业衰退矿产供大于求坚定看空

人是鳝变得

2022-05-12

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$今晚又是三个点吗

人是鳝变得

2022-05-02

‌$特斯拉(TSLA)$‌跌到200

人是鳝变得

2022-04-11

‌$富途控股(FUTU)$‌8块才是底

人是鳝变得

2022-04-09

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$拜登不可能连任的

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莫要人前卖弄&nbsp; 以卷己心","listText":"真心做市场 莫要人前卖弄&nbsp; 以卷己心","text":"真心做市场 莫要人前卖弄 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Pershad表示，“我们看到DeepSeek问世后市场情绪逆转，资金正在回流中概股。这早该到来，<strong>而使用期权是快速建立头寸的低成本方式。</strong>”</p><p>香港期权交易本月日均成交量较1月增长38%。</p><p>上周四港交所衍生品成交近190万份合约，为今年最多，其中恒生科技指数期货期权合约触及峰值。中国电动汽车制造商及相关子公司的期权押注也大幅攀升，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00285\">比亚迪电子</a>期权成交量刷新历史纪录。</p><p>近年来香港衍生品交易持续升温，2024年成交量再创新高。正当波动率回升之际，港交所推出恒生科技指数周度合约及部分个股期权，为市场博弈开辟新渠道。</p><p>中国科技前景与市场对特朗普政策的担忧再次推升股市波动。恒指波幅指数2月上涨近5个点，有望创去年9月以来最大月度涨幅。</p><p>对Gam Investment Management的基金经理Jian Shi Cortesi而言，DeepSeek犹如唤醒外资对中概科技股热情的“警钟”。</p><p>“此前，投资者认为人工智能属于美国大型科技公司、包括人工智能半导体、硬件和电力公司”，Cortesi表示，“如今市场认知正悄然转变：<strong>中国在电动汽车、无人机、机器人、AI、光伏和电池领域的技术相当先进。</strong>”</p><p>Eastspring Investments亚洲股票投资组合专家Ken Wong表示，DeepSeek已经表明，“<strong>中国实际上有一些公司正在形成整个人工智能生态系统的重要组成部分</strong>”。在过去的几个月里，他的公司一直在增持中国互联网公司的股票，同时减持那些“涨幅远远超过其估值倍数”的小型印度股票。</p></body></html>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=163412&type=news&data_type=0><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>蛇年伊始，香港期权市场表现强劲。根据香港交易所（HKEX）的数据，自农历新年恢复交易以来，平均每天有近120万份看跌和看涨期权易手，为去年10月以来最高水平。随着科技公司和电动汽车制造商股价飙升，投资者加大了对这些板块的押注。香港期权交易激增DeepSeek在人工智能领域的突破性进展，增加了市场对中国科技行业未来的乐观情绪。比亚迪等公司和部分数字医疗服务商已宣布技术整合计划。交易员争相投资所有可能...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=163412&type=news&data_type=0\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d50272c08ecbf96637c591aa4bb72b6","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数","00388":"香港交易所","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=163412&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2512617259","content_text":"蛇年伊始，香港期权市场表现强劲。根据香港交易所（HKEX）的数据，自农历新年恢复交易以来，平均每天有近120万份看跌和看涨期权易手，为去年10月以来最高水平。随着科技公司和电动汽车制造商股价飙升，投资者加大了对这些板块的押注。香港期权交易激增DeepSeek在人工智能领域的突破性进展，增加了市场对中国科技行业未来的乐观情绪。比亚迪等公司和部分数字医疗服务商已宣布技术整合计划。交易员争相投资所有可能受益的标的，推动恒生科技指数升至2022年以来最高水平——超越去年10月高点。M&G Investments Singapore投资组合经理Vikas Pershad表示，“我们看到DeepSeek问世后市场情绪逆转，资金正在回流中概股。这早该到来，而使用期权是快速建立头寸的低成本方式。”香港期权交易本月日均成交量较1月增长38%。上周四港交所衍生品成交近190万份合约，为今年最多，其中恒生科技指数期货期权合约触及峰值。中国电动汽车制造商及相关子公司的期权押注也大幅攀升，比亚迪电子期权成交量刷新历史纪录。近年来香港衍生品交易持续升温，2024年成交量再创新高。正当波动率回升之际，港交所推出恒生科技指数周度合约及部分个股期权，为市场博弈开辟新渠道。中国科技前景与市场对特朗普政策的担忧再次推升股市波动。恒指波幅指数2月上涨近5个点，有望创去年9月以来最大月度涨幅。对Gam Investment Management的基金经理Jian Shi Cortesi而言，DeepSeek犹如唤醒外资对中概科技股热情的“警钟”。“此前，投资者认为人工智能属于美国大型科技公司、包括人工智能半导体、硬件和电力公司”，Cortesi表示，“如今市场认知正悄然转变：中国在电动汽车、无人机、机器人、AI、光伏和电池领域的技术相当先进。”Eastspring Investments亚洲股票投资组合专家Ken 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13:08","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"“木头姐”继续唱多特斯拉：预计两年内推出机器人出租车服务","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2409275648","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"她设想，在未来两年内即将推出的自动驾驶出租车服务的推动下，特斯拉将迎来一个新的增长周期。伍德认为，自动驾驶出租车服务是一项革命性的发展，可能会加速特斯拉的增长轨迹。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bb0a2fdf3f020043eafb9942d6035b6\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"330\"/></p><p>尽管最近<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>的股价大幅下跌，但方舟投资管理公司创始人凯茜·伍德对这家电动汽车制造商的信心毫不动摇。</p><p>众所周知，伍德是颠覆性技术的支持者。她设想，在未来两年内即将推出的自动驾驶出租车服务的推动下，特斯拉将迎来一个新的增长周期。</p><p>伍德认为，自动驾驶出租车服务是一项革命性的发展，可能会加速特斯拉的增长轨迹。有了这项服务，特斯拉可能会重新定义城市通勤，并巩固其作为电动汽车市场领导者的地位。伍德对这一愿景的坚定信心支撑她在特斯拉股价低迷之际继续投资该公司。</p><p>自去年12月20日以来，伍德的基金一直在逢低买入特斯拉的股票。</p><p>在周三的一次采访中，这位知名投资者重申了她的预测，即特斯拉股价可以在五年内达到2000美元，市值将超过5万亿美元，并指出她正计划修订这一目标。</p><p>伍德表示：“我们一直在买入特斯拉。现在股票中有太多的负面心理。我们认为电动汽车将继续扩大市场份额，并在未来五年内真正成为市场主体。在那之后，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">机器人</a>出租车将彻底改变这一格局。”</p></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“木头姐”继续唱多特斯拉：预计两年内推出机器人出租车服务</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ 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class=\"title\">\n“木头姐”继续唱多特斯拉：预计两年内推出机器人出租车服务\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-02-08 13:08 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2024-02-08/doc-inahhxhk7222564.shtml><strong>环球市场播报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>尽管最近特斯拉的股价大幅下跌，但方舟投资管理公司创始人凯茜·伍德对这家电动汽车制造商的信心毫不动摇。众所周知，伍德是颠覆性技术的支持者。她设想，在未来两年内即将推出的自动驾驶出租车服务的推动下，特斯拉将迎来一个新的增长周期。伍德认为，自动驾驶出租车服务是一项革命性的发展，可能会加速特斯拉的增长轨迹。有了这项服务，特斯拉可能会重新定义城市通勤，并巩固其作为电动汽车市场领导者的地位。伍德对这一愿景的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2024-02-08/doc-inahhxhk7222564.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bb0a2fdf3f020043eafb9942d6035b6","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2024-02-08/doc-inahhxhk7222564.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2409275648","content_text":"尽管最近特斯拉的股价大幅下跌，但方舟投资管理公司创始人凯茜·伍德对这家电动汽车制造商的信心毫不动摇。众所周知，伍德是颠覆性技术的支持者。她设想，在未来两年内即将推出的自动驾驶出租车服务的推动下，特斯拉将迎来一个新的增长周期。伍德认为，自动驾驶出租车服务是一项革命性的发展，可能会加速特斯拉的增长轨迹。有了这项服务，特斯拉可能会重新定义城市通勤，并巩固其作为电动汽车市场领导者的地位。伍德对这一愿景的坚定信心支撑她在特斯拉股价低迷之际继续投资该公司。自去年12月20日以来，伍德的基金一直在逢低买入特斯拉的股票。在周三的一次采访中，这位知名投资者重申了她的预测，即特斯拉股价可以在五年内达到2000美元，市值将超过5万亿美元，并指出她正计划修订这一目标。伍德表示：“我们一直在买入特斯拉。现在股票中有太多的负面心理。我们认为电动汽车将继续扩大市场份额，并在未来五年内真正成为市场主体。在那之后，机器人出租车将彻底改变这一格局。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1358,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":251303806353544,"gmtCreate":1702390654945,"gmtModify":1702390656529,"author":{"id":"3517046115580762","authorId":"3517046115580762","name":"人是鳝变得","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8358bde223aa5ecc667f1b105900793e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3517046115580762","authorIdStr":"3517046115580762"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"反指来了","listText":"反指来了","text":"反指来了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/251303806353544","repostId":"1113003238","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1841,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":243444419236080,"gmtCreate":1700455945112,"gmtModify":1700455945917,"author":{"id":"3517046115580762","authorId":"3517046115580762","name":"人是鳝变得","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8358bde223aa5ecc667f1b105900793e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3517046115580762","authorIdStr":"3517046115580762"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$富时新加坡海峡指数(STI.SI)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/243444419236080","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":652,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":224899149480120,"gmtCreate":1695915115843,"gmtModify":1695915117773,"author":{"id":"3517046115580762","authorId":"3517046115580762","name":"人是鳝变得","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8358bde223aa5ecc667f1b105900793e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3517046115580762","authorIdStr":"3517046115580762"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"抖音乱封号问题严重，因为一句话不中他意就封你俩月半年，所以从来不在抖音买东西","listText":"抖音乱封号问题严重，因为一句话不中他意就封你俩月半年，所以从来不在抖音买东西","text":"抖音乱封号问题严重，因为一句话不中他意就封你俩月半年，所以从来不在抖音买东西","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/224899149480120","repostId":"2370747356","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1744,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":224624961400872,"gmtCreate":1695848138899,"gmtModify":1695848141163,"author":{"id":"3517046115580762","authorId":"3517046115580762","name":"人是鳝变得","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8358bde223aa5ecc667f1b105900793e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3517046115580762","authorIdStr":"3517046115580762"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"一本正经的胡说八道，股票上涨的动力是价值，价值的本质是净资产收益率&nbsp; &nbsp;改革有什么用&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"一本正经的胡说八道，股票上涨的动力是价值，价值的本质是净资产收益率&nbsp; &nbsp;改革有什么用&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"一本正经的胡说八道，股票上涨的动力是价值，价值的本质是净资产收益率 改革有什么用","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/224624961400872","repostId":"2370750177","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2370750177","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1695809467,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2370750177?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-09-27 18:11","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"可怕！这个指数20年里暴跌98%，逼近“归零”，改革要来了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2370750177","media":"财华社","summary":"2023年以来，在外围多国股市一片红火的情况下，港股却表现得比较疲软。其中，港股市场创业板的表现用某些投资者的话说那是相当的“辣眼睛”，甚至因为表现太差而“反向”引起了高度关注。","content":"<html><body><p>2023年以来，在外围多国股市一片红火的情况下，港股却表现得比较疲软。其中，港股市场创业板的表现用某些投资者的话说那是相当的“辣眼睛”，甚至因为表现太差而“反向”引起了高度关注。</p><p><strong>20</strong><strong>年里累跌98%</strong><strong>，对新股吸引力“归零”</strong></p><p>1999年，港股市场推出了创业板，彼时这个板块的定位是给不具备主板上市条件的中小企业及创新企业上市募资。不过，推出没多久，创业板就遭遇了“科网股泡沫”，在科网股暴跌的带动下，不足三年的时间里，创业板指数暴跌近90%。</p><p>面对此情此景，港交所想到的办法大概就是这把玩砸了，重开一局。</p><p>2003年，港交所启用标普香港创业板指数（以下简称“标普创业板指数”），基点为1000点。</p><p>却没想到，时间过去20年，这把又玩砸了。</p><p>9月27日，标普创业板指数再跌0.37%，截至收盘只剩24.13点，<strong>2023</strong><strong>年年内跌幅已超33%</strong><strong>，而在过去20</strong><strong>年里累跌近98%</strong><strong>。</strong></p><p>从成交量来看，标普创业板指数也是“越过越抽抽”，<strong>近期全天成交额已不足</strong><strong>1</strong><strong>亿港元。</strong></p><p><img height=\"682\" src=\"https://images.finet.hk/photoLib/content/202309_1/75163ecb-7ece-4901-9fc0-d20046e66e6f.png\" width=\"1025\"/></p><p>标普创业板指数表现如此，可以想见该板块的基本功能已经难以实现。</p><p>数据显示，目前创业板上市公司有341家，规模其实很小。</p><p>而就在这些创业板公司中，<strong>总市值最大的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/08137\">洪桥集团</a>（</strong><strong>08137.HK</strong><strong>）也只有不到40</strong><strong>亿港元市值，</strong>连主板“大块头”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a>（00700.HK）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>（09988.HK）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHL\">中国移动</a>（00941.HK）的一个零头都比不上。</p><p>另外，创业板个股中，股价超过1港元的占比也很低，只有不到20家。另一边，超过半数的创业板股票近期处于零成交状态。<strong>具备股价低、成交低等一些特征的股票一般被冠以“仙股”的名头。</strong></p><p>值得一提的是，这样的创业板对新股显然已经没有什么吸引力了，这个板块也有很长一段时间没有迎来新鲜血液了。</p><p>据统计，2023年至今，港股市场的新股全部为主板上市，创业板直接就给“忽视”了，而上一只在创业板上市的股票还是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/08489\">裕程物流</a>（08489.HK），该股于2021年1月13日在创业板上市。</p><p>这也就是说，<strong>在过去两年多的时间里，港股创业板没有赢得任何一只新股的青睐，</strong>简直“惨不忍睹”。</p><p><strong>创业板越来越不行，原因何在？</strong></p><p>港股市场在全球范围内亦是数得着的知名资本市场，很难想象创业板的表现何以会如此之差？</p><p>其实创业板之所以走到今天有很多原因。</p><p>例如，创业板最初的定位是给不具备主板上市条件的中小企业及创新企业上市募资，但后来港交所不断“打补丁”，许多原本不能在主板上市的企业纷纷也涌向主板，从某种程度上“吸血”了创业板。</p><p>这也导致创业板逐渐失去了对新股的吸引力，其结果就是板块多年没有“上新”。</p><p>与此同时，创业板内一些公司还纷纷“出逃”，转向主板上市。</p><p>另一方面，标普创业板指数在过去很多年没有调整指数的成分股，这也是导致指数表现一日不如一日的一个原因，进而丧失对新股的吸引力。</p><p>在逐渐“沉沦”后，创业板逐渐变成了一个“仙股”遍地的市场，而这些“仙股”还在玩一些“割韭菜”的套路，进一步赶跑了投资者，进入了恶性循环之中。</p><p><strong>创业板亟需改革，方案有望年内就推出</strong></p><p>值得一提的是，这次港交所不打算重开一局了，而是设法通过改革的方式盘活现有的局面。</p><p>港交所此前就表示，将尽快就创业板（GEM）改革向公众展开咨询，并成立专责小组处理有关创业板的检讨，以吸纳来自投资者和证券业内代表的意见。</p><p>9月26日，港交所终于发布公告称，<strong>就</strong><strong>GEM</strong><strong>（创业板）上市改革咨询市场意见，时间为期六周，将于2023</strong><strong>年11</strong><strong>月6</strong><strong>日结束。</strong></p><p>据了解，香港联交所表示，此次刊发的有关创业板（GEM）上市改革的咨询文件，<strong>主要有四个方面，分别为引入“简化转板机制”、全新的财务资格测试、将</strong><strong>GEM</strong><strong>发行人的持续合规要求与主板一致、缩短控股股东IPO</strong><strong>后禁售期。</strong></p><p>其中，建议引入全新的“简化转板机制”备受关注。</p><p>根据咨询建议，允许合资格的创业板发行人转往主板时无须委任保荐人进行尽职调查，也不需要刊发招股说明书。</p><p>这种做法显然比之前的转板规定更为宽松，同时有助于转板企业降低合规成本。</p><p>全新的财务资格测试是指，对于首次上市规定，为大量投入研发活动的高增长企业推出新的资格测试。采用此新测试的创业板上市申请人，除符合其他条件外，须确保其在上市前两个财政年度的合计研发开支不少于3000万港元，而每个财政年度的研发开支占同期总营运开支达15%或以上。</p><p>总的来看，港股市场的创业板已经丧失了基本职能，到了不得不改的地步，具体的改革方案有望在年内就拿出来。而改革方案能否令港股创业板“焕发新机”则仍需持续跟踪。</p></body></html>","source":"finet_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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{color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n可怕！这个指数20年里暴跌98%，逼近“归零”，改革要来了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-09-27 18:11 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.finet.hk/newscenter/news_content/6513ffbbbde0b375aabeacf5><strong>财华社</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2023年以来，在外围多国股市一片红火的情况下，港股却表现得比较疲软。其中，港股市场创业板的表现用某些投资者的话说那是相当的“辣眼睛”，甚至因为表现太差而“反向”引起了高度关注。20年里累跌98%，对新股吸引力“归零”1999年，港股市场推出了创业板，彼时这个板块的定位是给不具备主板上市条件的中小企业及创新企业上市募资。不过，推出没多久，创业板就遭遇了“科网股泡沫”，在科网股暴跌的带动下，不足三年...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.finet.hk/newscenter/news_content/6513ffbbbde0b375aabeacf5\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://images.finet.hk/photoLib/title/202309_1/a37a3a0e-5707-4062-aa90-e544d0d0f92d.png","relate_stocks":{"80700":"腾讯控股-R","80883":"中国海洋石油-R","89988":"阿里巴巴-WR","399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","LU0106959298.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - EMERGING MARKETS SUSTAINABLE LEADERS (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0359201612.USD":"贝莱德中国基金A2","00700":"腾讯控股","LU1497733631.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Asian Low Volatility 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Acc"},"source_url":"https://www.finet.hk/newscenter/news_content/6513ffbbbde0b375aabeacf5","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2370750177","content_text":"2023年以来，在外围多国股市一片红火的情况下，港股却表现得比较疲软。其中，港股市场创业板的表现用某些投资者的话说那是相当的“辣眼睛”，甚至因为表现太差而“反向”引起了高度关注。20年里累跌98%，对新股吸引力“归零”1999年，港股市场推出了创业板，彼时这个板块的定位是给不具备主板上市条件的中小企业及创新企业上市募资。不过，推出没多久，创业板就遭遇了“科网股泡沫”，在科网股暴跌的带动下，不足三年的时间里，创业板指数暴跌近90%。面对此情此景，港交所想到的办法大概就是这把玩砸了，重开一局。2003年，港交所启用标普香港创业板指数（以下简称“标普创业板指数”），基点为1000点。却没想到，时间过去20年，这把又玩砸了。9月27日，标普创业板指数再跌0.37%，截至收盘只剩24.13点，2023年年内跌幅已超33%，而在过去20年里累跌近98%。从成交量来看，标普创业板指数也是“越过越抽抽”，近期全天成交额已不足1亿港元。标普创业板指数表现如此，可以想见该板块的基本功能已经难以实现。数据显示，目前创业板上市公司有341家，规模其实很小。而就在这些创业板公司中，总市值最大的洪桥集团（08137.HK）也只有不到40亿港元市值，连主板“大块头”腾讯控股（00700.HK）、阿里巴巴（09988.HK）、中国移动（00941.HK）的一个零头都比不上。另外，创业板个股中，股价超过1港元的占比也很低，只有不到20家。另一边，超过半数的创业板股票近期处于零成交状态。具备股价低、成交低等一些特征的股票一般被冠以“仙股”的名头。值得一提的是，这样的创业板对新股显然已经没有什么吸引力了，这个板块也有很长一段时间没有迎来新鲜血液了。据统计，2023年至今，港股市场的新股全部为主板上市，创业板直接就给“忽视”了，而上一只在创业板上市的股票还是裕程物流（08489.HK），该股于2021年1月13日在创业板上市。这也就是说，在过去两年多的时间里，港股创业板没有赢得任何一只新股的青睐，简直“惨不忍睹”。创业板越来越不行，原因何在？港股市场在全球范围内亦是数得着的知名资本市场，很难想象创业板的表现何以会如此之差？其实创业板之所以走到今天有很多原因。例如，创业板最初的定位是给不具备主板上市条件的中小企业及创新企业上市募资，但后来港交所不断“打补丁”，许多原本不能在主板上市的企业纷纷也涌向主板，从某种程度上“吸血”了创业板。这也导致创业板逐渐失去了对新股的吸引力，其结果就是板块多年没有“上新”。与此同时，创业板内一些公司还纷纷“出逃”，转向主板上市。另一方面，标普创业板指数在过去很多年没有调整指数的成分股，这也是导致指数表现一日不如一日的一个原因，进而丧失对新股的吸引力。在逐渐“沉沦”后，创业板逐渐变成了一个“仙股”遍地的市场，而这些“仙股”还在玩一些“割韭菜”的套路，进一步赶跑了投资者，进入了恶性循环之中。创业板亟需改革，方案有望年内就推出值得一提的是，这次港交所不打算重开一局了，而是设法通过改革的方式盘活现有的局面。港交所此前就表示，将尽快就创业板（GEM）改革向公众展开咨询，并成立专责小组处理有关创业板的检讨，以吸纳来自投资者和证券业内代表的意见。9月26日，港交所终于发布公告称，就GEM（创业板）上市改革咨询市场意见，时间为期六周，将于2023年11月6日结束。据了解，香港联交所表示，此次刊发的有关创业板（GEM）上市改革的咨询文件，主要有四个方面，分别为引入“简化转板机制”、全新的财务资格测试、将GEM发行人的持续合规要求与主板一致、缩短控股股东IPO后禁售期。其中，建议引入全新的“简化转板机制”备受关注。根据咨询建议，允许合资格的创业板发行人转往主板时无须委任保荐人进行尽职调查，也不需要刊发招股说明书。这种做法显然比之前的转板规定更为宽松，同时有助于转板企业降低合规成本。全新的财务资格测试是指，对于首次上市规定，为大量投入研发活动的高增长企业推出新的资格测试。采用此新测试的创业板上市申请人，除符合其他条件外，须确保其在上市前两个财政年度的合计研发开支不少于3000万港元，而每个财政年度的研发开支占同期总营运开支达15%或以上。总的来看，港股市场的创业板已经丧失了基本职能，到了不得不改的地步，具体的改革方案有望在年内就拿出来。而改革方案能否令港股创业板“焕发新机”则仍需持续跟踪。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1200,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":667319157,"gmtCreate":1668568500480,"gmtModify":1668568501399,"author":{"id":"3517046115580762","authorId":"3517046115580762","name":"人是鳝变得","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8358bde223aa5ecc667f1b105900793e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3517046115580762","authorIdStr":"3517046115580762"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$&nbsp;</a>回调一下吧 一直涨是不健康的","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$&nbsp;</a>回调一下吧 一直涨是不健康的","text":"$Sea Ltd(SE)$ 回调一下吧 一直涨是不健康的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/667319157","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1801,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":669165648,"gmtCreate":1662165337384,"gmtModify":1662165338322,"author":{"id":"3517046115580762","authorId":"3517046115580762","name":"人是鳝变得","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8358bde223aa5ecc667f1b105900793e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3517046115580762","authorIdStr":"3517046115580762"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"最好停止收购&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"最好停止收购&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"最好停止收购","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/669165648","repostId":"2264217626","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2264217626","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1662074571,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2264217626?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-09-02 07:22","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"微软收购动视暴雪将受英国反垄断机构深度调查","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2264217626","media":"金融界网站","summary":"微软计划以690亿美元收购动视暴雪的交易将受到英国反垄断机构的深度调查，原因是该交易可能会导致市场竞争被大幅削弱。CMA表示，微软收购动视暴雪可能会“大大减少游戏主机、多游戏订阅服务和云游戏服务市场的竞争”。该机构要求微软和动视暴雪在9月8日之前提供可接受的补救措施。　　除了CMA，微软收购动视暴雪的交易也遭到了全球其他监管机构的质询和调查，包括美国、新西兰和巴西等。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>计划以690亿美元收购<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATVI\">动视暴雪</a>的交易将受到英国反垄断机构的深度调查，原因是该交易可能会导致市场竞争被大幅削弱。</p><p>英国竞争与市场管理局（CMA）周四在一份声明中称：“除非双方提供可接受的承诺，来解决这些竞争问题。否则，将对该交易展开进一步的深入调查。”CMA表示，微软收购动视暴雪可能会“大大减少游戏主机、多游戏订阅服务和云游戏服务市场的竞争”。该机构要求微软和动视暴雪在9月8日之前提供可接受的补救措施。</p><p>CMA表示：“我们担心，如果微软收购动视暴雪，它可能会通过拒绝让竞争对手访问动视暴雪的游戏、或以更糟糕的条款提供访问，从而伤害竞争对手，包括最近和未来进入游戏行业的人。”</p><p>今年1月，微软宣布将以每股95美元的现金收购游戏开发和互动娱乐内容发行商动视暴雪，交易总金额约为690亿美元。交易完成后，微软将成为世界上营收第三高的游戏公司，仅次于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNE\">索尼</a>。</p><p>7月，CMA宣布，已对微软收购动视暴雪交易展开“初步的”反垄断调查。CMA表示，将评估这笔交易是否会损害市场竞争，导致价格上涨或消费者选择空间减少。CMA当时预计，初步调查将在今年9月1日前完成，之后再决定是否展开进一步的深入调查。</p><p>除了CMA，微软收购动视暴雪的交易也遭到了全球其他监管机构的质询和调查，包括美国、新西兰和巴西等。到目前为止，只有沙特阿拉伯宣布批准该交易。</p></body></html>","source":"jinrongjie_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>微软收购动视暴雪将受英国反垄断机构深度调查</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n微软收购动视暴雪将受英国反垄断机构深度调查\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-02 07:22 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://usstock.jrj.com.cn/2022/09/02020336964766.shtml><strong>金融界网站</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>微软计划以690亿美元收购动视暴雪的交易将受到英国反垄断机构的深度调查，原因是该交易可能会导致市场竞争被大幅削弱。英国竞争与市场管理局（CMA）周四在一份声明中称：“除非双方提供可接受的承诺，来解决这些竞争问题。否则，将对该交易展开进一步的深入调查。”CMA表示，微软收购动视暴雪可能会“大大减少游戏主机、多游戏订阅服务和云游戏服务市场的竞争”。该机构要求微软和动视暴雪在9月8日之前提供可接受的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://usstock.jrj.com.cn/2022/09/02020336964766.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9e6cb1a33dd64f159118795f199c2f3","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://usstock.jrj.com.cn/2022/09/02020336964766.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2264217626","content_text":"微软计划以690亿美元收购动视暴雪的交易将受到英国反垄断机构的深度调查，原因是该交易可能会导致市场竞争被大幅削弱。英国竞争与市场管理局（CMA）周四在一份声明中称：“除非双方提供可接受的承诺，来解决这些竞争问题。否则，将对该交易展开进一步的深入调查。”CMA表示，微软收购动视暴雪可能会“大大减少游戏主机、多游戏订阅服务和云游戏服务市场的竞争”。该机构要求微软和动视暴雪在9月8日之前提供可接受的补救措施。CMA表示：“我们担心，如果微软收购动视暴雪，它可能会通过拒绝让竞争对手访问动视暴雪的游戏、或以更糟糕的条款提供访问，从而伤害竞争对手，包括最近和未来进入游戏行业的人。”今年1月，微软宣布将以每股95美元的现金收购游戏开发和互动娱乐内容发行商动视暴雪，交易总金额约为690亿美元。交易完成后，微软将成为世界上营收第三高的游戏公司，仅次于腾讯和索尼。7月，CMA宣布，已对微软收购动视暴雪交易展开“初步的”反垄断调查。CMA表示，将评估这笔交易是否会损害市场竞争，导致价格上涨或消费者选择空间减少。CMA当时预计，初步调查将在今年9月1日前完成，之后再决定是否展开进一步的深入调查。除了CMA，微软收购动视暴雪的交易也遭到了全球其他监管机构的质询和调查，包括美国、新西兰和巴西等。到目前为止，只有沙特阿拉伯宣布批准该交易。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2399,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":682238904,"gmtCreate":1659004201710,"gmtModify":1659004201710,"author":{"id":"3517046115580762","authorId":"3517046115580762","name":"人是鳝变得","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8358bde223aa5ecc667f1b105900793e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3517046115580762","authorIdStr":"3517046115580762"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"下来吧 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疫情搞得我只能买爱玛越野","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/686026131","repostId":"2251489275","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1478,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":688711966,"gmtCreate":1657849464260,"gmtModify":1704868455618,"author":{"id":"3517046115580762","authorId":"3517046115580762","name":"人是鳝变得","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8358bde223aa5ecc667f1b105900793e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3517046115580762","authorIdStr":"3517046115580762"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a>‌跌啊&nbsp; 非等我进来你才跌是吧&nbsp;","listText":"‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a>‌跌啊&nbsp; 非等我进来你才跌是吧&nbsp;","text":"‌$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$‌跌啊 非等我进来你才跌是吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/688711966","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2100,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":680446100,"gmtCreate":1655213036702,"gmtModify":1704861522360,"author":{"id":"3517046115580762","authorId":"3517046115580762","name":"人是鳝变得","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8358bde223aa5ecc667f1b105900793e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3517046115580762","authorIdStr":"3517046115580762"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"最后一句话血淋淋啊","listText":"最后一句话血淋淋啊","text":"最后一句话血淋淋啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/680446100","repostId":"1179371572","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1179371572","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"提供来自华尔街的观点，观察市场，提供独道的解读视角。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎锐评","id":"1005414032","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1655210530,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1179371572?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-06-14 20:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"盘前观察 | 美联储本周会打出哪种加息组合？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179371572","media":"老虎锐评","summary":">>>盘前 | 加息步伐加快？美股指期货反弹乏力就是一天时间，市场认为美联储在周三加息75个基点的概率提高到接近100%。也就在昨天，不少投行都发表加息75个基点的报告，这些投行包括Barclays，","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>&gt;&gt;&gt;</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1185238788\" target=\"_blank\"><b>盘前 | 加息步伐加快？美股指期货反弹乏力</b></a><b></b></p><p>就是一天时间，市场认为美联储在周三加息75个基点的概率提高到接近100%。也就在昨天，不少投行都发表加息75个基点的报告，这些投行包括Barclays，Jefferies, GS和JPM。美联储今天开始为期两天的闭门会议，这些市场信息自然已经进入了美联储特别是鲍威尔的耳朵。</p><p>市场目前关注明天是加息50个基点还是75个基点，但市场会更加关注的是美联储加息后的表态，这里可能存在如下几种组合形式。</p><p><b>1，美联储宣布加息50个基点，鲍威尔依旧暗示7月加息50个基点。</b>目前市场已经认为明天会加息75个基点，所以如果美联储宣布加息50个基点，那么市场肯定会觉得是非常鸽派的言论。市场情绪一定得到提振，股市也会走好，但这个组合的可能性非常低。</p><p><b>2，美联储宣布加息75个基点，鲍威尔暗示7月可能也加息75个基点。</b>鲍威尔在上次FOMC会议之后，否定了这次加息75个基点的可能（A 75 basis point increase is not something that the committee is actively considering）。按照以往的鲍威尔风格，不愿意给市场意外，说了加息50个基点就加息50个基点。但这次市场如果自己“悟到”了75个基点，那么鲍威尔自己食言问题也不大——反正市场都预期了75个基点，何不借此机会兑现市场的预期呢？对于7月份的加息暗示，美联储也可能预期管理到75个基点。因为从各种资料能够看得出来，鲍威尔认为管理人们心中的“通胀预期”，和管理实际的市场“通胀预期”同样重要，因为通胀会出现“自我实现”的现象（self-fulfilling）。这个组合可能是最鹰派的组合，市场一定不喜欢。</p><p><b>3，美联储宣布加息50个基点，鲍威尔暗示7月可能加息75个基点。</b>考虑到鲍威尔毕竟自己否定过加息75基点预期，所以坚守承诺的可能性还是有的，毕竟美联储还是要有一定的权威性，不能“市场说什么就跟着市场走”。但是，即使这次宣布加息50个基点，鲍威尔同样也会宣布下次加息往75个基点看齐。而且为了管理人们心中的预期，鲍威尔甚至会刻意加强下次加息75个基点的预期。这个组合貌似是鸽派鹰派组合，但市场同样不喜欢。</p><p>如果硬要给这三种情况概率的话，我觉得是10%，50%和40%。说得更直白一点，50%的概率美联储加息75个基点，90%的概率美联储的决定和表态市场不喜欢。这段时间也没有什么能量和激情再去批评美联储了，就像看到俄乌战争大家都在做最错误的选择，却也无能无力。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>盘前观察 | 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.h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n盘前观察 | 美联储本周会打出哪种加息组合？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1005414032\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎锐评 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-06-14 20:42</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><b>&gt;&gt;&gt;</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1185238788\" target=\"_blank\"><b>盘前 | 加息步伐加快？美股指期货反弹乏力</b></a><b></b></p><p>就是一天时间，市场认为美联储在周三加息75个基点的概率提高到接近100%。也就在昨天，不少投行都发表加息75个基点的报告，这些投行包括Barclays，Jefferies, GS和JPM。美联储今天开始为期两天的闭门会议，这些市场信息自然已经进入了美联储特别是鲍威尔的耳朵。</p><p>市场目前关注明天是加息50个基点还是75个基点，但市场会更加关注的是美联储加息后的表态，这里可能存在如下几种组合形式。</p><p><b>1，美联储宣布加息50个基点，鲍威尔依旧暗示7月加息50个基点。</b>目前市场已经认为明天会加息75个基点，所以如果美联储宣布加息50个基点，那么市场肯定会觉得是非常鸽派的言论。市场情绪一定得到提振，股市也会走好，但这个组合的可能性非常低。</p><p><b>2，美联储宣布加息75个基点，鲍威尔暗示7月可能也加息75个基点。</b>鲍威尔在上次FOMC会议之后，否定了这次加息75个基点的可能（A 75 basis point increase is not something that the committee is actively considering）。按照以往的鲍威尔风格，不愿意给市场意外，说了加息50个基点就加息50个基点。但这次市场如果自己“悟到”了75个基点，那么鲍威尔自己食言问题也不大——反正市场都预期了75个基点，何不借此机会兑现市场的预期呢？对于7月份的加息暗示，美联储也可能预期管理到75个基点。因为从各种资料能够看得出来，鲍威尔认为管理人们心中的“通胀预期”，和管理实际的市场“通胀预期”同样重要，因为通胀会出现“自我实现”的现象（self-fulfilling）。这个组合可能是最鹰派的组合，市场一定不喜欢。</p><p><b>3，美联储宣布加息50个基点，鲍威尔暗示7月可能加息75个基点。</b>考虑到鲍威尔毕竟自己否定过加息75基点预期，所以坚守承诺的可能性还是有的，毕竟美联储还是要有一定的权威性，不能“市场说什么就跟着市场走”。但是，即使这次宣布加息50个基点，鲍威尔同样也会宣布下次加息往75个基点看齐。而且为了管理人们心中的预期，鲍威尔甚至会刻意加强下次加息75个基点的预期。这个组合貌似是鸽派鹰派组合，但市场同样不喜欢。</p><p>如果硬要给这三种情况概率的话，我觉得是10%，50%和40%。说得更直白一点，50%的概率美联储加息75个基点，90%的概率美联储的决定和表态市场不喜欢。这段时间也没有什么能量和激情再去批评美联储了，就像看到俄乌战争大家都在做最错误的选择，却也无能无力。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100","SPY":"标普500ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179371572","content_text":">>>盘前 | 加息步伐加快？美股指期货反弹乏力就是一天时间，市场认为美联储在周三加息75个基点的概率提高到接近100%。也就在昨天，不少投行都发表加息75个基点的报告，这些投行包括Barclays，Jefferies, GS和JPM。美联储今天开始为期两天的闭门会议，这些市场信息自然已经进入了美联储特别是鲍威尔的耳朵。市场目前关注明天是加息50个基点还是75个基点，但市场会更加关注的是美联储加息后的表态，这里可能存在如下几种组合形式。1，美联储宣布加息50个基点，鲍威尔依旧暗示7月加息50个基点。目前市场已经认为明天会加息75个基点，所以如果美联储宣布加息50个基点，那么市场肯定会觉得是非常鸽派的言论。市场情绪一定得到提振，股市也会走好，但这个组合的可能性非常低。2，美联储宣布加息75个基点，鲍威尔暗示7月可能也加息75个基点。鲍威尔在上次FOMC会议之后，否定了这次加息75个基点的可能（A 75 basis point increase is not something that the committee is actively considering）。按照以往的鲍威尔风格，不愿意给市场意外，说了加息50个基点就加息50个基点。但这次市场如果自己“悟到”了75个基点，那么鲍威尔自己食言问题也不大——反正市场都预期了75个基点，何不借此机会兑现市场的预期呢？对于7月份的加息暗示，美联储也可能预期管理到75个基点。因为从各种资料能够看得出来，鲍威尔认为管理人们心中的“通胀预期”，和管理实际的市场“通胀预期”同样重要，因为通胀会出现“自我实现”的现象（self-fulfilling）。这个组合可能是最鹰派的组合，市场一定不喜欢。3，美联储宣布加息50个基点，鲍威尔暗示7月可能加息75个基点。考虑到鲍威尔毕竟自己否定过加息75基点预期，所以坚守承诺的可能性还是有的，毕竟美联储还是要有一定的权威性，不能“市场说什么就跟着市场走”。但是，即使这次宣布加息50个基点，鲍威尔同样也会宣布下次加息往75个基点看齐。而且为了管理人们心中的预期，鲍威尔甚至会刻意加强下次加息75个基点的预期。这个组合貌似是鸽派鹰派组合，但市场同样不喜欢。如果硬要给这三种情况概率的话，我觉得是10%，50%和40%。说得更直白一点，50%的概率美联储加息75个基点，90%的概率美联储的决定和表态市场不喜欢。这段时间也没有什么能量和激情再去批评美联储了，就像看到俄乌战争大家都在做最错误的选择，却也无能无力。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1483,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":680875670,"gmtCreate":1654924716291,"gmtModify":1704860853637,"author":{"id":"3517046115580762","authorId":"3517046115580762","name":"人是鳝变得","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8358bde223aa5ecc667f1b105900793e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3517046115580762","authorIdStr":"3517046115580762"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"美国人民生活在水深火热之中！我生活在，啥？我还活着？","listText":"美国人民生活在水深火热之中！我生活在，啥？我还活着？","text":"美国人民生活在水深火热之中！我生活在，啥？我还活着？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/680875670","repostId":"2242581180","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2242581180","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1654912872,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2242581180?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-06-11 10:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"鲍威尔要对通胀负责？拜登果然“推锅”美联储","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2242581180","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摘要：美国通胀见顶希望破灭，拜登政府迅速表态，给了美联储足够的空间。鲍威尔抗击通胀的压力越来越大了。美国5月CPI再度爆表，一举浇灭了通胀见顶的希望。数据公布后，拜登政府迅速表态，话里话外都将重担甩给","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>摘要：美国通胀见顶希望破灭，拜登政府迅速表态，给了美联储足够的空间。鲍威尔抗击通胀的压力越来越大了。</blockquote><p>美国5月CPI再度爆表，一举浇灭了通胀见顶的希望。数据公布后，拜登政府迅速表态，话里话外都将重担甩给了美联储。</p><p>周五公布的数据显示，美国5月CPI同比加速增长8.6%，在4月增长略有回落后未能继续增长放缓，反而刷新3月所创的四十年来最高增速，令市场大感意外。</p><p>数据公布后，美国国债收益率全线拉升，10年期美债收益率一个月来首次升破3.10%。美股三大指数连续三日集体收跌，纳指收跌3.52%，标普收跌2.91%，道指收跌2.73%，均为连续两日创下5月18日以来最大收盘跌幅。</p><p>在高企的通胀面前，美国消费者信心崩了。周五公布的数据显示，密歇根大学消费者信心指数跌至1980年以来的最低水平。</p><p>创纪录的汽油价格，再加上居高不下的食品和住房成本，正在加大美国人的生活成本压力，<b>这使得美联储不得不面对更快加息的压力，也给白宫和民主党人带来更多的政治问题，毕竟拜登上任以来，美国通胀才开始“起飞”。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84c06e35247a75a5fd811a0e6aa93756\" tg-width=\"512\" tg-height=\"289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>（图片来源：Zerohedge）</p><h2>拜登政府：给了美联储足够的空间</h2><p>周五数据公布后，美国总统拜登在一份声明中表示，“今天的报告强调了我为什么把抗击通货膨胀作为我的首要经济任务......虽然看到关键的‘核心’通胀放缓是好事，但它的下降速度没有我们必须看到的那么快、那么剧烈。”</p><p>拜登表示，美国需要“迅速采取更多措施来降低价格”，并呼吁国会通过降低能源、处方药和运输成本的立法。</p><p>在不断累积的民生问题面前，拜登的支持率已经跌至新低，白宫正试图通过不断强调美联储的作用来分散压力。</p><p>早在上个月底，拜登就将抗击通胀的责任“甩锅”给了美联储，在和鲍威尔会面前一天，拜登表示美联储“肩负控制通胀的主要责任”，同时表示，他不会试图影响联储的决策：</p><blockquote>“前任曾贬低过美联储，过去一些总统试图在通胀高企的时期不恰当地影响美联储的决策，我不会那么做。”</blockquote><p>周五数据公布后，这套说辞再现。</p><p>美国国家经济委员会主任布莱恩·迪斯(Brian Deese)周五在媒体上表示，今天的数据突显出总统一直以来的表态——抗击通胀必须成为首要经济任务，<b>“美联储拥有它需要的工具，我们正在给它所需的空间。”</b></p><p>美国白宫经济顾问塞西莉亚·劳斯(CeciliaRouse)也在媒体采访中提到，<b>拜登给了美联储“做他们需要做的事情的空间”。</b></p><p>美联储控制通胀的压力越来越大。</p><p>周五，加息预期飙升至本轮周期的最高水平，交易员预计美联储在6月、7月和9月各加息50个基点，同时随后的降息预期也在飙升。华尔街开始讨论美联储会不会加息75个基点，巴克莱成为首家预计加息75个基点的华尔街大行，甚至预计下周就会这一幅度加息，掉期市场预计7月加息75个基点的概率达50%。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n鲍威尔要对通胀负责？拜登果然“推锅”美联储\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-11 10:01 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3661699><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>摘要：美国通胀见顶希望破灭，拜登政府迅速表态，给了美联储足够的空间。鲍威尔抗击通胀的压力越来越大了。美国5月CPI再度爆表，一举浇灭了通胀见顶的希望。数据公布后，拜登政府迅速表态，话里话外都将重担甩给了美联储。周五公布的数据显示，美国5月CPI同比加速增长8.6%，在4月增长略有回落后未能继续增长放缓，反而刷新3月所创的四十年来最高增速，令市场大感意外。数据公布后，美国国债收益率全线拉升，10年期...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3661699\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42d623bf2f962cffafc93d5db7d45f9c","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3661699","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2242581180","content_text":"摘要：美国通胀见顶希望破灭，拜登政府迅速表态，给了美联储足够的空间。鲍威尔抗击通胀的压力越来越大了。美国5月CPI再度爆表，一举浇灭了通胀见顶的希望。数据公布后，拜登政府迅速表态，话里话外都将重担甩给了美联储。周五公布的数据显示，美国5月CPI同比加速增长8.6%，在4月增长略有回落后未能继续增长放缓，反而刷新3月所创的四十年来最高增速，令市场大感意外。数据公布后，美国国债收益率全线拉升，10年期美债收益率一个月来首次升破3.10%。美股三大指数连续三日集体收跌，纳指收跌3.52%，标普收跌2.91%，道指收跌2.73%，均为连续两日创下5月18日以来最大收盘跌幅。在高企的通胀面前，美国消费者信心崩了。周五公布的数据显示，密歇根大学消费者信心指数跌至1980年以来的最低水平。创纪录的汽油价格，再加上居高不下的食品和住房成本，正在加大美国人的生活成本压力，这使得美联储不得不面对更快加息的压力，也给白宫和民主党人带来更多的政治问题，毕竟拜登上任以来，美国通胀才开始“起飞”。（图片来源：Zerohedge）拜登政府：给了美联储足够的空间周五数据公布后，美国总统拜登在一份声明中表示，“今天的报告强调了我为什么把抗击通货膨胀作为我的首要经济任务......虽然看到关键的‘核心’通胀放缓是好事，但它的下降速度没有我们必须看到的那么快、那么剧烈。”拜登表示，美国需要“迅速采取更多措施来降低价格”，并呼吁国会通过降低能源、处方药和运输成本的立法。在不断累积的民生问题面前，拜登的支持率已经跌至新低，白宫正试图通过不断强调美联储的作用来分散压力。早在上个月底，拜登就将抗击通胀的责任“甩锅”给了美联储，在和鲍威尔会面前一天，拜登表示美联储“肩负控制通胀的主要责任”，同时表示，他不会试图影响联储的决策：“前任曾贬低过美联储，过去一些总统试图在通胀高企的时期不恰当地影响美联储的决策，我不会那么做。”周五数据公布后，这套说辞再现。美国国家经济委员会主任布莱恩·迪斯(Brian 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target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">$阿斯麦(ASML)$</a> 虽然涨的慢 但是一直涨","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">$阿斯麦(ASML)$</a> 虽然涨的慢 但是一直涨","text":"$阿斯麦(ASML)$ 虽然涨的慢 但是一直涨","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/804019722","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2453,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":383892611,"gmtCreate":1612862277533,"gmtModify":1703765926468,"author":{"id":"3517046115580762","authorId":"3517046115580762","name":"人是鳝变得","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8358bde223aa5ecc667f1b105900793e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3517046115580762","authorIdStr":"3517046115580762"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>直接上100吧","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>直接上100吧","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$直接上100吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/383892611","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1015,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":390772877,"gmtCreate":1605876892299,"gmtModify":1703840218446,"author":{"id":"3517046115580762","authorId":"3517046115580762","name":"人是鳝变得","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8358bde223aa5ecc667f1b105900793e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3517046115580762","authorIdStr":"3517046115580762"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>一个电商化妆品120亿美元市值，老虎才10亿？再涨20倍","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>一个电商化妆品120亿美元市值，老虎才10亿？再涨20倍","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$一个电商化妆品120亿美元市值，老虎才10亿？再涨20倍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/390772877","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2131,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3450929526994286","authorId":"3450929526994286","name":"荒野猎人asher","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa167f4724c5d1b17a3b17affaddf88e","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3450929526994286","authorIdStr":"3450929526994286"},"content":"哪个电商？","text":"哪个电商？","html":"哪个电商？"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":839457213,"gmtCreate":1629176744832,"gmtModify":1629176744832,"author":{"id":"3517046115580762","authorId":"3517046115580762","name":"人是鳝变得","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8358bde223aa5ecc667f1b105900793e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3517046115580762","authorIdStr":"3517046115580762"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"建议印花税再加30%问题就解决了，没人买了 大家都不亏钱了 皆大欢喜","listText":"建议印花税再加30%问题就解决了，没人买了 大家都不亏钱了 皆大欢喜","text":"建议印花税再加30%问题就解决了，没人买了 大家都不亏钱了 皆大欢喜","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839457213","repostId":"1101047078","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101047078","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"坚守初心，不随俗流。用一颗匠子心打造一个具有广度、深度、高度、温度的港股交流圈","home_visible":1,"media_name":"丫丫港股圈","id":"1055767104","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e72e80eef358bde27914deb6b2315953"},"pubTimestamp":1629167472,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1101047078?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-17 10:31","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"港股科技指数的大Bug - “快速纳入机制”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101047078","media":"丫丫港股圈","summary":"近半年多以来，在通胀阴云之下，美股崩盘声此起彼落，但仍然无阻其持续创新高。\n从去年谷底至今，纳指表现最好，涨幅达到123%，而标普500和道指涨幅则分别为103%和94%。\n\n纳指领涨的背后基于两大原","content":"<p>近半年多以来，在通胀阴云之下，美股崩盘声此起彼落，但仍然无阻其持续创新高。</p>\n<p>从去年谷底至今，纳指表现最好，涨幅达到123%，而标普500和道指涨幅则分别为103%和94%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a83c5243b25706540b1a739dee317fc4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"421\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>纳指领涨的背后基于两大原因，一是疫情催化了大量科技需求，例如远程办公、电商等，亦推动了科技行业的快速发展。</p>\n<p>二是在零息环境下，现金流贴现模型的估值得到大幅提升，而市场对高估值容忍度也更为放松。</p>\n<p>两大因素共振造就了永远的神，促使美股每次回调后都创新高。</p>\n<p>以纳指100为例，估值早已突破了近10年高位，处于35倍PE的水平。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2b799e81531ae4c0ca2a363867c7d1b\" tg-width=\"921\" tg-height=\"484\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>相比下，拥有「港版纳指」之称的恒生科技指数，表现惨不忍睹，不但跑输通涨，更要录得负回报。</p>\n<p>于2020年7月27日，恒生科技指数以6918的基数正式启动，截止8月11日，收报6820点，累计下滑1.4%，从2月高位更是跌了近38%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38eb29b0bb2a0108470ee967d3ef458f\" tg-width=\"903\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>同期，纳指100上涨43%。</p>\n<p>纳指100于1985年2月发布，基点为125，现在已经涨到15000点水平。</p>\n<p>毕竟，纳指是全球的顶级资产，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>等，两大指数背后公司质地的不同，也令可比性大大减少。</p>\n<p>但事实上，恒生科技指数的垃圾表现，更多是来自于指数的一个重大Bug，“快速纳入机制”。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebc7b1cbcf43810ee7b3b17d8439741a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>不过，先来看两个指数的相似与不同之处，恒生科技指数由30只股票构成，纳指包括所有于美国那斯达克上市的股份，多于1700只，而纳指100则基于前100只。</p>\n<p>不论从市场深度，或是宽度，恒生科技指数与纳指100无疑是相差极远。</p>\n<p>但从占比来说，结构上却是相近。两大指数均是在市值加权的基础上，按相应的指数编制规则计算出来。</p>\n<p>于恒生科技指数中，占比最多为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>，近12%，其次是8.8%的小米以及8.2%的舜宇光学，前5大共占44%，前10大占69%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3efe02cc762a1a1b0af676df1c74f8b\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>纳指100方面，占比依次最大是苹果、微软、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>，分别为13%、12%、10%，前5大/10大共占50%/62%。</p>\n<p>所以说，两大指数均取决于头10大企业的表现。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e50a30571a8d2ace1eb7b15e8975487\" tg-width=\"901\" tg-height=\"731\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>具体来看，对比250日的涨跌幅，美股前20名无一下跌，表现最厉害的是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>，涨近160%，而最差的是亚马逊，涨不到10%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7f55b3fb1bc4eb2598349a5b9e0bb13\" tg-width=\"829\" tg-height=\"626\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>至于恒生科技指数，全部30只，同期有14只上涨，数量接近一半，体现出企业质地的差别，其中表现最好的是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00909\">明源云</a>，其次是小米，最差的是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01797\">新东方在线</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATHM\">汽车之家</a>。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86c78a4d5d5a4f314b4a15c764cf4bdc\" tg-width=\"687\" tg-height=\"663\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>当然，这未考虑到期间指数的变动，以权重带来的影响，以<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">新东方</a>在线为例，从一开始便在指数当中，占比为1.57%。</p>\n<p>由于指数没什么变动，以目前占0.11%来计算，下跌86%仅拖累指数1.25%，影响不到90点，虽然是拖累，但算是雷声大雨点小。</p>\n<p>权重最大的那几只，才是最致命的伤害。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c47a24bfcc1e6154d82c7a0023c90ab6\" tg-width=\"1077\" tg-height=\"520\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>从变化来看，阿里巴巴从当初的8.53%占比提升至12.02%，这并不是股价好，只是于今年7月份最为抗跌，占比才从7月初的8.2%大幅提升接近4个百份点。</p>\n<p>近20个交易日，成份股有一半以上跌幅超过10%，包括占比超过5%的腾讯、美团和京东。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ec8f62e50aaa3a6f1ef8163c031a4de\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>从发布至今，幸好有小米和舜宇光学在支撑，两者期内累涨约76%和48%，为指数贡献近10%涨幅。</p>\n<p>拖累最厉害的，依次是阿里巴巴、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00241\">阿里健康</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01833\">平安好医生</a>，这不包括被删除的，由于当初加起来比重不到6%，故此忽略不看。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a59e3b168c20003cde4d5f62b523e16\" tg-width=\"674\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>突如其来的政策风险，对指数下滑来说还可以说是非战之罪。</p>\n<p>但核心问题，主要在于互联网行业占比过重，面对政策风险，基本上是一网打尽。</p>\n<p>雪上加霜的是，恒生科技指数的bug直接引入了泡沫，进一步加大波动性。</p>\n<p>在调整频率上，纳指100和恒生科技指数均是在每季度进行定期调整，不同的是，后者增加了“快速纳入机制”。</p>\n<p>若符合条件的新股上市首日市值在现有成份股中排名前十，则将会在该新股上市后的第十个交易日收市后将其纳入指数。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9452409f60df744127ffb8497a18243\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"701\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这机制不是恒生指数公司独创，纳斯达克编制部份指数时也会采用，例如丹麦OMX哥本哈根20指数、瑞典OMX斯德哥尔摩30指数等。</p>\n<p>机制的出发点在于能更好地反映市场的变化，只是理想很丰满，现实却很骨感。</p>\n<p>目前股市已处于一级市场疯子定价，二级市场傻子接盘的时代。</p>\n<p>火热的新股估值往往充满泡沫，更甚的是，随着港股逐步A股化，以及新股打着稀缺性的旗号，吸引大量散户进场，促使泡沫进一步巨大化，也令恒生科技指数成为了巨大的牺牲品。</p>\n<p>从发布至今，恒生科技指数一共出现了四次快速纳入，分别是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06618\">京东健康</a>、快手、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>。</p>\n<p>由于快速纳入的重点在于市值够大，变相来说公司被纳入后，占比将会不轻，大一点的波动对指数也会带来明显的影响。</p>\n<p>从各别股票纳入至今，跌幅均达到20%以上，京东健康跌了56%，市值从5800亿跌至2600亿。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f78901a3110e1d2c22a87873c40e7e9\" tg-width=\"1077\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>快手跌了76%，市值从14900亿跌至3500亿。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11dcd002b8aa71072105a3a18ea9f801\" tg-width=\"1074\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>换算下来，两者共拖累指数下跌逾7%，可以说是港股指数历史上的最大惨剧之一。</p>\n<p>未来如果再有数千亿以上的企业来港上市，这惨剧可能会再一次发生，而下一个可能是字节跳动。</p>\n<p>公司去年12月的投后估值为1800亿美元，另根据4月份报导，外界估计估值已逾4000亿美元，相当于31200亿港元，仅次于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>和阿里四万多亿的水平，意味这潜在惨剧的规模将会更为巨大。</p>\n<p>如果一个投资者，为了分享企业科技进步带来增值的机会，因而配置了恒生科技指数的ETF，最终只会沦为被收割的韭菜。</p>\n<p>在快速纳入机制下，被动资金成为了新股泡沫的接盘者，某程度如以前的MSCI指数一样。</p>\n<p>最后，目前巨额机构资金囤集一级市场，疯狂吞噬新股上市后二级市场的溢价，贪婪吸食散户的利益，令股市的投资功能丧失殆尽。</p>\n<p>只希望港股的指数能尽快改革，避免沦为收割者的帮凶。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n港股科技指数的大Bug - “快速纳入机制”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1055767104\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/e72e80eef358bde27914deb6b2315953);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">丫丫港股圈 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-08-17 10:31</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>近半年多以来，在通胀阴云之下，美股崩盘声此起彼落，但仍然无阻其持续创新高。</p>\n<p>从去年谷底至今，纳指表现最好，涨幅达到123%，而标普500和道指涨幅则分别为103%和94%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a83c5243b25706540b1a739dee317fc4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"421\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>纳指领涨的背后基于两大原因，一是疫情催化了大量科技需求，例如远程办公、电商等，亦推动了科技行业的快速发展。</p>\n<p>二是在零息环境下，现金流贴现模型的估值得到大幅提升，而市场对高估值容忍度也更为放松。</p>\n<p>两大因素共振造就了永远的神，促使美股每次回调后都创新高。</p>\n<p>以纳指100为例，估值早已突破了近10年高位，处于35倍PE的水平。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2b799e81531ae4c0ca2a363867c7d1b\" tg-width=\"921\" tg-height=\"484\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>相比下，拥有「港版纳指」之称的恒生科技指数，表现惨不忍睹，不但跑输通涨，更要录得负回报。</p>\n<p>于2020年7月27日，恒生科技指数以6918的基数正式启动，截止8月11日，收报6820点，累计下滑1.4%，从2月高位更是跌了近38%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38eb29b0bb2a0108470ee967d3ef458f\" tg-width=\"903\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>同期，纳指100上涨43%。</p>\n<p>纳指100于1985年2月发布，基点为125，现在已经涨到15000点水平。</p>\n<p>毕竟，纳指是全球的顶级资产，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>等，两大指数背后公司质地的不同，也令可比性大大减少。</p>\n<p>但事实上，恒生科技指数的垃圾表现，更多是来自于指数的一个重大Bug，“快速纳入机制”。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebc7b1cbcf43810ee7b3b17d8439741a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>不过，先来看两个指数的相似与不同之处，恒生科技指数由30只股票构成，纳指包括所有于美国那斯达克上市的股份，多于1700只，而纳指100则基于前100只。</p>\n<p>不论从市场深度，或是宽度，恒生科技指数与纳指100无疑是相差极远。</p>\n<p>但从占比来说，结构上却是相近。两大指数均是在市值加权的基础上，按相应的指数编制规则计算出来。</p>\n<p>于恒生科技指数中，占比最多为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>，近12%，其次是8.8%的小米以及8.2%的舜宇光学，前5大共占44%，前10大占69%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3efe02cc762a1a1b0af676df1c74f8b\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>纳指100方面，占比依次最大是苹果、微软、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>，分别为13%、12%、10%，前5大/10大共占50%/62%。</p>\n<p>所以说，两大指数均取决于头10大企业的表现。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e50a30571a8d2ace1eb7b15e8975487\" tg-width=\"901\" tg-height=\"731\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>具体来看，对比250日的涨跌幅，美股前20名无一下跌，表现最厉害的是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>，涨近160%，而最差的是亚马逊，涨不到10%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7f55b3fb1bc4eb2598349a5b9e0bb13\" tg-width=\"829\" tg-height=\"626\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>至于恒生科技指数，全部30只，同期有14只上涨，数量接近一半，体现出企业质地的差别，其中表现最好的是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00909\">明源云</a>，其次是小米，最差的是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01797\">新东方在线</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATHM\">汽车之家</a>。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86c78a4d5d5a4f314b4a15c764cf4bdc\" tg-width=\"687\" tg-height=\"663\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>当然，这未考虑到期间指数的变动，以权重带来的影响，以<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">新东方</a>在线为例，从一开始便在指数当中，占比为1.57%。</p>\n<p>由于指数没什么变动，以目前占0.11%来计算，下跌86%仅拖累指数1.25%，影响不到90点，虽然是拖累，但算是雷声大雨点小。</p>\n<p>权重最大的那几只，才是最致命的伤害。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c47a24bfcc1e6154d82c7a0023c90ab6\" tg-width=\"1077\" tg-height=\"520\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>从变化来看，阿里巴巴从当初的8.53%占比提升至12.02%，这并不是股价好，只是于今年7月份最为抗跌，占比才从7月初的8.2%大幅提升接近4个百份点。</p>\n<p>近20个交易日，成份股有一半以上跌幅超过10%，包括占比超过5%的腾讯、美团和京东。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ec8f62e50aaa3a6f1ef8163c031a4de\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>从发布至今，幸好有小米和舜宇光学在支撑，两者期内累涨约76%和48%，为指数贡献近10%涨幅。</p>\n<p>拖累最厉害的，依次是阿里巴巴、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00241\">阿里健康</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01833\">平安好医生</a>，这不包括被删除的，由于当初加起来比重不到6%，故此忽略不看。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a59e3b168c20003cde4d5f62b523e16\" tg-width=\"674\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>突如其来的政策风险，对指数下滑来说还可以说是非战之罪。</p>\n<p>但核心问题，主要在于互联网行业占比过重，面对政策风险，基本上是一网打尽。</p>\n<p>雪上加霜的是，恒生科技指数的bug直接引入了泡沫，进一步加大波动性。</p>\n<p>在调整频率上，纳指100和恒生科技指数均是在每季度进行定期调整，不同的是，后者增加了“快速纳入机制”。</p>\n<p>若符合条件的新股上市首日市值在现有成份股中排名前十，则将会在该新股上市后的第十个交易日收市后将其纳入指数。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9452409f60df744127ffb8497a18243\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"701\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这机制不是恒生指数公司独创，纳斯达克编制部份指数时也会采用，例如丹麦OMX哥本哈根20指数、瑞典OMX斯德哥尔摩30指数等。</p>\n<p>机制的出发点在于能更好地反映市场的变化，只是理想很丰满，现实却很骨感。</p>\n<p>目前股市已处于一级市场疯子定价，二级市场傻子接盘的时代。</p>\n<p>火热的新股估值往往充满泡沫，更甚的是，随着港股逐步A股化，以及新股打着稀缺性的旗号，吸引大量散户进场，促使泡沫进一步巨大化，也令恒生科技指数成为了巨大的牺牲品。</p>\n<p>从发布至今，恒生科技指数一共出现了四次快速纳入，分别是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06618\">京东健康</a>、快手、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>。</p>\n<p>由于快速纳入的重点在于市值够大，变相来说公司被纳入后，占比将会不轻，大一点的波动对指数也会带来明显的影响。</p>\n<p>从各别股票纳入至今，跌幅均达到20%以上，京东健康跌了56%，市值从5800亿跌至2600亿。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f78901a3110e1d2c22a87873c40e7e9\" tg-width=\"1077\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>快手跌了76%，市值从14900亿跌至3500亿。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11dcd002b8aa71072105a3a18ea9f801\" tg-width=\"1074\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>换算下来，两者共拖累指数下跌逾7%，可以说是港股指数历史上的最大惨剧之一。</p>\n<p>未来如果再有数千亿以上的企业来港上市，这惨剧可能会再一次发生，而下一个可能是字节跳动。</p>\n<p>公司去年12月的投后估值为1800亿美元，另根据4月份报导，外界估计估值已逾4000亿美元，相当于31200亿港元，仅次于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>和阿里四万多亿的水平，意味这潜在惨剧的规模将会更为巨大。</p>\n<p>如果一个投资者，为了分享企业科技进步带来增值的机会，因而配置了恒生科技指数的ETF，最终只会沦为被收割的韭菜。</p>\n<p>在快速纳入机制下，被动资金成为了新股泡沫的接盘者，某程度如以前的MSCI指数一样。</p>\n<p>最后，目前巨额机构资金囤集一级市场，疯狂吞噬新股上市后二级市场的溢价，贪婪吸食散户的利益，令股市的投资功能丧失殆尽。</p>\n<p>只希望港股的指数能尽快改革，避免沦为收割者的帮凶。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7da52addfd52fb216bcf87283f43750","relate_stocks":{"159741":"港股科技","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","HSI":"恒生指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101047078","content_text":"近半年多以来，在通胀阴云之下，美股崩盘声此起彼落，但仍然无阻其持续创新高。\n从去年谷底至今，纳指表现最好，涨幅达到123%，而标普500和道指涨幅则分别为103%和94%。\n\n纳指领涨的背后基于两大原因，一是疫情催化了大量科技需求，例如远程办公、电商等，亦推动了科技行业的快速发展。\n二是在零息环境下，现金流贴现模型的估值得到大幅提升，而市场对高估值容忍度也更为放松。\n两大因素共振造就了永远的神，促使美股每次回调后都创新高。\n以纳指100为例，估值早已突破了近10年高位，处于35倍PE的水平。\n\n相比下，拥有「港版纳指」之称的恒生科技指数，表现惨不忍睹，不但跑输通涨，更要录得负回报。\n于2020年7月27日，恒生科技指数以6918的基数正式启动，截止8月11日，收报6820点，累计下滑1.4%，从2月高位更是跌了近38%。\n\n同期，纳指100上涨43%。\n纳指100于1985年2月发布，基点为125，现在已经涨到15000点水平。\n毕竟，纳指是全球的顶级资产，包括苹果、微软、亚马逊等，两大指数背后公司质地的不同，也令可比性大大减少。\n但事实上，恒生科技指数的垃圾表现，更多是来自于指数的一个重大Bug，“快速纳入机制”。\n\n不过，先来看两个指数的相似与不同之处，恒生科技指数由30只股票构成，纳指包括所有于美国那斯达克上市的股份，多于1700只，而纳指100则基于前100只。\n不论从市场深度，或是宽度，恒生科技指数与纳指100无疑是相差极远。\n但从占比来说，结构上却是相近。两大指数均是在市值加权的基础上，按相应的指数编制规则计算出来。\n于恒生科技指数中，占比最多为阿里巴巴，近12%，其次是8.8%的小米以及8.2%的舜宇光学，前5大共占44%，前10大占69%。\n\n纳指100方面，占比依次最大是苹果、微软、谷歌，分别为13%、12%、10%，前5大/10大共占50%/62%。\n所以说，两大指数均取决于头10大企业的表现。\n\n具体来看，对比250日的涨跌幅，美股前20名无一下跌，表现最厉害的是特斯拉，涨近160%，而最差的是亚马逊，涨不到10%。\n\n至于恒生科技指数，全部30只，同期有14只上涨，数量接近一半，体现出企业质地的差别，其中表现最好的是明源云，其次是小米，最差的是新东方在线和汽车之家。\n\n当然，这未考虑到期间指数的变动，以权重带来的影响，以新东方在线为例，从一开始便在指数当中，占比为1.57%。\n由于指数没什么变动，以目前占0.11%来计算，下跌86%仅拖累指数1.25%，影响不到90点，虽然是拖累，但算是雷声大雨点小。\n权重最大的那几只，才是最致命的伤害。\n\n从变化来看，阿里巴巴从当初的8.53%占比提升至12.02%，这并不是股价好，只是于今年7月份最为抗跌，占比才从7月初的8.2%大幅提升接近4个百份点。\n近20个交易日，成份股有一半以上跌幅超过10%，包括占比超过5%的腾讯、美团和京东。\n\n从发布至今，幸好有小米和舜宇光学在支撑，两者期内累涨约76%和48%，为指数贡献近10%涨幅。\n拖累最厉害的，依次是阿里巴巴、阿里健康、平安好医生，这不包括被删除的，由于当初加起来比重不到6%，故此忽略不看。\n\n突如其来的政策风险，对指数下滑来说还可以说是非战之罪。\n但核心问题，主要在于互联网行业占比过重，面对政策风险，基本上是一网打尽。\n雪上加霜的是，恒生科技指数的bug直接引入了泡沫，进一步加大波动性。\n在调整频率上，纳指100和恒生科技指数均是在每季度进行定期调整，不同的是，后者增加了“快速纳入机制”。\n若符合条件的新股上市首日市值在现有成份股中排名前十，则将会在该新股上市后的第十个交易日收市后将其纳入指数。\n\n这机制不是恒生指数公司独创，纳斯达克编制部份指数时也会采用，例如丹麦OMX哥本哈根20指数、瑞典OMX斯德哥尔摩30指数等。\n机制的出发点在于能更好地反映市场的变化，只是理想很丰满，现实却很骨感。\n目前股市已处于一级市场疯子定价，二级市场傻子接盘的时代。\n火热的新股估值往往充满泡沫，更甚的是，随着港股逐步A股化，以及新股打着稀缺性的旗号，吸引大量散户进场，促使泡沫进一步巨大化，也令恒生科技指数成为了巨大的牺牲品。\n从发布至今，恒生科技指数一共出现了四次快速纳入，分别是京东健康、快手、百度以及哔哩哔哩。\n由于快速纳入的重点在于市值够大，变相来说公司被纳入后，占比将会不轻，大一点的波动对指数也会带来明显的影响。\n从各别股票纳入至今，跌幅均达到20%以上，京东健康跌了56%，市值从5800亿跌至2600亿。\n\n快手跌了76%，市值从14900亿跌至3500亿。\n\n换算下来，两者共拖累指数下跌逾7%，可以说是港股指数历史上的最大惨剧之一。\n未来如果再有数千亿以上的企业来港上市，这惨剧可能会再一次发生，而下一个可能是字节跳动。\n公司去年12月的投后估值为1800亿美元，另根据4月份报导，外界估计估值已逾4000亿美元，相当于31200亿港元，仅次于腾讯和阿里四万多亿的水平，意味这潜在惨剧的规模将会更为巨大。\n如果一个投资者，为了分享企业科技进步带来增值的机会，因而配置了恒生科技指数的ETF，最终只会沦为被收割的韭菜。\n在快速纳入机制下，被动资金成为了新股泡沫的接盘者，某程度如以前的MSCI指数一样。\n最后，目前巨额机构资金囤集一级市场，疯狂吞噬新股上市后二级市场的溢价，贪婪吸食散户的利益，令股市的投资功能丧失殆尽。\n只希望港股的指数能尽快改革，避免沦为收割者的帮凶。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1624,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":321177805,"gmtCreate":1615418842707,"gmtModify":1703488721265,"author":{"id":"3517046115580762","authorId":"3517046115580762","name":"人是鳝变得","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8358bde223aa5ecc667f1b105900793e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3517046115580762","authorIdStr":"3517046115580762"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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是不是中概股？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604646845","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2871,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":387507929,"gmtCreate":1613752455961,"gmtModify":1613752455961,"author":{"id":"3517046115580762","authorId":"3517046115580762","name":"人是鳝变得","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8358bde223aa5ecc667f1b105900793e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3517046115580762","authorIdStr":"3517046115580762"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a> 只是研究又不是放开了 研究T0几年了也没见放开 还有只是一个官员说的又不是局长说的","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a> 只是研究又不是放开了 研究T0几年了也没见放开 还有只是一个官员说的又不是局长说的","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 只是研究又不是放开了 研究T0几年了也没见放开 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