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吃饭睡觉打小新
2021-01-08
想加仓了吗?
“业界良心”杨东吹哨:被爆炒的新能源股面临大幅下跌
吃饭睡觉打小新
2020-07-10
$Adient PLC(ADNT)$
好久没看模拟账户了,我都忘了什么时候买的了
吃饭睡觉打小新
2020-07-09
$拼多多(PDD)$
最近还有机会上百吗?
吃饭睡觉打小新
2020-07-06
$拼多多(PDD)$
今天能涨到多少呢[开心] [财迷]
吃饭睡觉打小新
2020-06-15
$盈丰科技(CREG)$ 没人关注这股么?
吃饭睡觉打小新
2020-06-15
$Cocrystal Pharma, Inc.(COCP)$ 没人关注这股么?
吃饭睡觉打小新
2020-03-03
$iBio Inc.(IBIO)$
@小虎AV
。。。
吃饭睡觉打小新
2020-03-02
$iBio Inc.(IBIO)$
观察着。。。
吃饭睡觉打小新
2020-02-28
$iBio Inc.(IBIO)$
今晚上3有戏吗?
吃饭睡觉打小新
2020-02-28
$iBio Inc.(IBIO)$
不枉我一直扛着
吃饭睡觉打小新
2020-02-20
$iBio Inc.(IBIO)$
服儿了
吃饭睡觉打小新
2020-02-07
$iBio Inc.(IBIO)$
这哥们等啥呢?是上涨无望了吗?
吃饭睡觉打小新
2020-02-04
$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 1月14号买了一股,剩余购买力就只够买1股,当时很纠结,但想了想还是咬咬牙买了。现在回想当时像极了一个小学生倾其所有零花钱买心爱的东西,莫名悲壮,哈哈哈哈。不过现在再看,当初的决定还是对的,虽然小里小气的~
吃饭睡觉打小新
2020-02-04
$好未来(TAL)$ 好未来还是要买的,最不济2月份也是能挺不错的
吃饭睡觉打小新
2020-02-04
$iBio Inc.(IBIO)$
这股能上1块不?
吃饭睡觉打小新
2020-02-03
$盈丰科技(CREG)$ 今天比较心仪的票: $燃料电池能源(FCEL)$ $克利夫兰生物实验室(CBLI)$ $Vaxart, Inc(VXRT)$ $Advaxis Inc.(ADXS)$ $京东(JD)$ $波音(BA)$
吃饭睡觉打小新
2020-02-01
$盈丰科技(CREG)$ 当涨不涨必有妖儿~ 撤?留?
吃饭睡觉打小新
2020-01-31
$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 今天还得继续涨吧?
吃饭睡觉打小新
2020-01-28
$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 是财报前拉高出货?还是报捷冲锋号已响
吃饭睡觉打小新
2020-01-28
$Vaxart, Inc(VXRT)$
有大神预测么?今天到几?
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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},"themes":[],"htmlText":"想加仓了吗?","listText":"想加仓了吗?","text":"想加仓了吗?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/336695940","repostId":"1172840222","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1172840222","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1610069514,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1172840222?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-01-08 09:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“业界良心”杨东吹哨:被爆炒的新能源股面临大幅下跌","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172840222","media":"投资人记事","summary":"“被很多企业和个人看好的氢燃料电池路线,很可能已没有足够的时间和足够的补贴支持来发展完善供给体系以及实现有竞争力的成本,也将面临沉重的竞争压力。”“我们其实是看好光伏,电动汽车,储能这几个方面的巨大发","content":"<p>“被很多企业和个人看好的<b>氢燃料电池路线,很可能已没有足够的时间和足够的补贴支持来发展完善供给体系以及实现有竞争力的成本,也将面临沉重的竞争压力。”</b></p><p>“<b>我们其实是看好光伏,电动汽车,储能这几个方面的巨大发展前景,但我们并非对所有的新能源技术和行业发展都乐观。”</b></p><p><b>“我们也不认为现在是投资光伏、锂电、电动汽车的股票的好时机了,</b>可以和持有人汇报的是<b>我们已经逐步在退出新能源相关的股票</b>,因为目前的性价比对投资者已经很不友好。”</p><p><b>“大多数被暴炒的新能源股票恐怕未来只能以股价的大幅下跌来消化估值了。”</b></p><p>发出以上声音警告热门新能源股暴跌风险的,是投资界良心杨东掌舵的宁泉资产,他们也是最早看好新能源革命的知名投资人。</p><p>杨东每一次发声,都是在市场转折的关键时期,并且也曾为自己的“良心”发声付出过代价,但他收到了投资者的普遍尊重。在明知这份会被快速传播,他仍然坚定选择“吹哨”,观点没有任何的模糊。</p><p>杨东是原兴全基金公司总经理,他曾在6000点劝赎、5000点公开高喊风险,是中国首个也是到目前惟一一个敢于放弃公司短期利益劝基民赎回的公募基金总经理,他对市场判断的前瞻性也为市场熟知,并被称为“业界良心”。</p><p>2018年12月,杨东在市场最悲观的时候给投资人写信,乐观地说“倾向于看好后市表现”,随后的2019年迎来基金收益的大年。</p><p>当时杨东还旗帜鲜明地评论称:“看多A股的一个理由是世界将会迎来一场以光伏、电动车和储能为代表的能源革命,储能行业未来几年有望年均百分百以上增长。”</p><p>今年3月,杨东在路演时给出宁泉资产的判断是:A股市场未来3000点是大概率看得到的,这次下跌得越多,对未来越有利,可以更多从机会的角度去看。这一观点已得到市场验证。(<b>“良心投资人”杨东罕见发声:现在应更多看机会;淡水泉高毅等同声相应)</b></p><p>据透露,目前宁泉资本管理资金220亿左右。知情人士称,1月11号到15号,宁泉资产在一些渠道发行新产品,目标规模100亿,本次发行结束后,预计宁泉资产的管理规模将超过300亿。</p><p>在早前宁泉资本的路演沟通和三季报中提出,2019和2020两年是资产管理行业的好年头,资管产品普遍取得了较好收益,但这并不是常态。从周期和估值的角度看,我们认为明年(2021年)大概率会是个“小年”了,<b>尽管追求正收益仍然大有希望,但在收益率的预期上我们比较保守。</b></p><p>简单理解,宁泉资产认为,2021年大概率还是能赚钱的,并不是说小年就是熊市了,只是需要投资者降低收益率预期。</p><p>值得关注的是,在宁泉资产的12月月报中,<b>其股票仓位仅为45.6%,权益和债券基金占比仅为0.86%,货币基金、银行存款和结算备付金合计占比是46.89%。</b></p><p>在其持仓的行业结构中,主要是非银金融,食品饮料仅占比0.96%,低于房地产的1.21%。</p><p>仅从这个持仓结构看,低估值可能成了宁泉资产配置的重要逻辑。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64ad70388a618c88fab6c28fd34e99e4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"380\"></p><p>以下是宁泉资产的12月报中做的《近期投资操作短评及未来展望》:</p><p><b>近期投资操作短评及未来展望</b></p><p>来自宁泉资产12月月报</p><p>2020 年可谓是惊心动魄跌宕起伏的一年,市场年初经历了恐慌,年末又迎来了火热。</p><p>回顾全年,随着 IPO 注册制的实施,板块分化愈演愈烈,个股之间的差距在不断拉大,“赛道正确”的公司被赋予了越来越高的溢价,而冷门的板块始终无人问津。</p><p>大盘以最后一天的大涨结束了这不平凡的一年,上证综指收盘在了年内新高点,我们的大部分产品净值也随着市场的上涨创出新高。,</p><p>新能源行业未来发展的前景是非常光明和鼓舞人心的,新能源革命将会深刻地改变我们的社会、环境、日常生活,还将显著改变全球地缘政治格局、国家实力对比和国际关系。</p><p>中国在新能源革命中处于一个非常有利的位置。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000591\">太阳能</a>在不远的将来就会成为电力的主要来源,当前光伏发电在全球各个地区几乎都具有了成本竞争力,随着成本的进一步下降,光伏发电不仅仅是替代火电,还将抑制核电、风电等其他清洁能源的发展,因为太阳能最终会在综合成本上最具优势,而且阳光无处不在。</p><p>所以,<b>新能源的发展过程并非只是对旧的化石能源的不断替代,同时也是不同新能源方式的竞争,同一种能源之间不同技术路径的竞争,同一种技术路径上的企业之间价格的竞争。</b></p><p>从过往经验看,<b>新兴行业面临的竞争往往更加激烈和冷酷无情,新能源汽车领域也是同样的情况。</b></p><p>各种交通工具的电动化趋势发展迅猛且不可阻挡,目前来<b>看纯电动的路线将是主流,</b>德国的几大汽车巨头在两年多前就明确选择了电动汽车路线进行大力转型,而依然</p><p>所以严格的说,<b>我们其实是看好光伏,电动汽车,储能这几个方面的巨大发展前景,但我们并非对所有的新能源技术和行业发展都乐观。</b></p><p>再回到投资上,<b>我们也不认为现在是投资光伏、锂电、电动汽车的股票的好时机了,</b>可以和持有人汇报的是<b>我们已经逐步在退出新能源相关的股票</b>,因为目前的性价比对投资者已经很不友好。</p><p>也许个别强大且幸运的领先企业可以通过时间来化解估值,成为最终真正的王者,但<b>大多数被暴炒的新能源股票恐怕未来只能以股价的大幅下跌来消化估值了。</b></p><p>科技进步让世界充满了快速的变化,让产业充满残酷的优胜劣汰,在 10 年前出版的《掘金绿色投资》一书中,作者介绍了几十家新能源方面的代表公司,<b>目前这批公司有一半以上已经破产或接近破产。</b></p><p>在未来巨大的变化面前,A 股的市场不是非黑即白,大部分时间指数可能也没有明确的方向,对个股的研究和估值把握将越来越重要。</p><p>在新的一年里,我们将继续在能力圈范围内寻找机会,保持谨慎,不去承担和收益不匹配的风险,努力让持有人资产实现长期稳健的保值增值。</p><p><b>附宁泉资产前三季度对市场的研判</b></p><p><b>一季报:对收益有信心,加仓光伏、券商股</b></p><p>目前的指数和估值从历史角度来考量处于较低位置,我们对未来半年以上的投资收益数学期望值为正,比较有信心。</p><p>我们也重新检视了支持我们投资的各个长期逻辑,在加入新冠疫情这个新变量后,这些长期逻辑绝大多数都依然成立。</p><p>现在,我们更多的是进行一些调仓,新成立的产品则会借助股市的低迷积极的建仓。</p><p>当然,新冠疫情的影响肯定是巨大的,我们在股票和行业的选择上必须把这个影响考虑进去,选择相对不受疫情影响的,或是股票已经充分甚至过度反应疫情影响的。</p><p>我们<b>对出现大幅回调的光伏龙头股进行了加仓</b>,疫情会影响今年的海外市场需求,但和其他一些受影响严重的行业相比,光伏行业的特点其受影响程度其实是相对温和的,行业的长期前景不会有多少改变,疫情过后暂时被压制的需求会继续释放。</p><p>另外我们认为券商行业几乎不受疫情影响,随着国家不断提升资本市场在经济发展中的作用与地位,大力发展直接融资,券商行业的发展前景和空间相当不错。</p><p>从估值角度看,我们认为A股券商股的估值基本到位,个别甚至高估。我们布局的基本是券商H股。</p><p>如果市场继续下跌,我们会不断逢低吸纳,产品的净值波动可能会进一步加大,但是如果我们对未来回升充满信心,为了未来收益的实现,我们会容忍一定的下跌波动,我们相信疫情终将过去,股市会回到它长期的轨道上去,持仓股票的基本面质地和发展前景是我们的信心来源,我们会耐心等待。</p><p><b>二季报:市场疯涨,估值压力巨大</b></p><p>我们在一季度的市场调整中,积极加仓了大幅回调的光伏龙头股,随着海外需求数据不断超预期,光伏龙头股票强力回升并创出新高。同时,我们加大配置的低估港股券商股也逐渐被资金所关注到,出现较好表现。因此,我们的净值很快收复失地并随着市场反弹再次创出新高。</p><p>对于未来的可能演绎,如果当前市场能够明智地被快速降温,并出现深幅调整的话,市场仍有望维持原有的震荡缓慢攀升的格局。</p><p>但如果进一步失控地疯狂上涨的话,那么就有可能在较短的时间内发泄完疯狂以后,再次陷入A股历史上牛短熊长的循环,用未来长时间的低迷来弥补这一次的疯狂。</p><p>随着注册制的逐步实施,IPO和再融资都将大幅增加,股票的供给会源源不断,目前的估值水平承受这样的压力是巨大的,<b>疯狂上涨的市场到底是谁的盛宴其实是很清楚的。</b></p><p><b>三季报:已降仓,2021仍有正收益的大希望</b></p><p>出于绝对收益的考量,我们在三季度市场热情高涨的时候,陆续兑现了一些获利丰厚且对未来业绩有所透支的个股,<b>产品仓位出现了一定程度下降,并在后续的市场调整中增加了低估值蓝筹股票的配置,</b>产品净值在市场震荡中保持平稳并持续创出新高。</p><p>目前我们的资本市场正在发生明显的变革,由于应对疫情需要今年的资金面非常宽松,中央严控房价上涨的政策也导致大量房市资金转向股市投资。</p><p>但同时,我们也要看到注册制在科创板和创业板的顺利实施以及未来向主板市场的进一步推广,股票的供给数量和速度都要远超以往,供求关系能够更加市场化,对优质股票不是坏事,但<b>大量缺乏估值基础的个股将面临很大估值压力。</b></p><p>2019和2020两年是资产管理行业的好年头,资管产品普遍取得了较好收益,但这并不是常态。从周期和估值的角度看,我们认为明年大概率会是个“小年”了,<b>尽管</b>追求正收益仍然大有希望,但在收益率的预期上我们比较保守。</p>","source":"lsy1585022731199","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“业界良心”杨东吹哨:被爆炒的新能源股面临大幅下跌\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-01-08 09:31 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/NKTGbjNNKj0fJNSccHExqw><strong>投资人记事</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>“被很多企业和个人看好的氢燃料电池路线,很可能已没有足够的时间和足够的补贴支持来发展完善供给体系以及实现有竞争力的成本,也将面临沉重的竞争压力。”“我们其实是看好光伏,电动汽车,储能这几个方面的巨大发展前景,但我们并非对所有的新能源技术和行业发展都乐观。”“我们也不认为现在是投资光伏、锂电、电动汽车的股票的好时机了,可以和持有人汇报的是我们已经逐步在退出新能源相关的股票,因为目前的性价比对投资者...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/NKTGbjNNKj0fJNSccHExqw\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edb5904d62b10798f760277be625646d","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/NKTGbjNNKj0fJNSccHExqw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172840222","content_text":"“被很多企业和个人看好的氢燃料电池路线,很可能已没有足够的时间和足够的补贴支持来发展完善供给体系以及实现有竞争力的成本,也将面临沉重的竞争压力。”“我们其实是看好光伏,电动汽车,储能这几个方面的巨大发展前景,但我们并非对所有的新能源技术和行业发展都乐观。”“我们也不认为现在是投资光伏、锂电、电动汽车的股票的好时机了,可以和持有人汇报的是我们已经逐步在退出新能源相关的股票,因为目前的性价比对投资者已经很不友好。”“大多数被暴炒的新能源股票恐怕未来只能以股价的大幅下跌来消化估值了。”发出以上声音警告热门新能源股暴跌风险的,是投资界良心杨东掌舵的宁泉资产,他们也是最早看好新能源革命的知名投资人。杨东每一次发声,都是在市场转折的关键时期,并且也曾为自己的“良心”发声付出过代价,但他收到了投资者的普遍尊重。在明知这份会被快速传播,他仍然坚定选择“吹哨”,观点没有任何的模糊。杨东是原兴全基金公司总经理,他曾在6000点劝赎、5000点公开高喊风险,是中国首个也是到目前惟一一个敢于放弃公司短期利益劝基民赎回的公募基金总经理,他对市场判断的前瞻性也为市场熟知,并被称为“业界良心”。2018年12月,杨东在市场最悲观的时候给投资人写信,乐观地说“倾向于看好后市表现”,随后的2019年迎来基金收益的大年。当时杨东还旗帜鲜明地评论称:“看多A股的一个理由是世界将会迎来一场以光伏、电动车和储能为代表的能源革命,储能行业未来几年有望年均百分百以上增长。”今年3月,杨东在路演时给出宁泉资产的判断是:A股市场未来3000点是大概率看得到的,这次下跌得越多,对未来越有利,可以更多从机会的角度去看。这一观点已得到市场验证。(“良心投资人”杨东罕见发声:现在应更多看机会;淡水泉高毅等同声相应)据透露,目前宁泉资本管理资金220亿左右。知情人士称,1月11号到15号,宁泉资产在一些渠道发行新产品,目标规模100亿,本次发行结束后,预计宁泉资产的管理规模将超过300亿。在早前宁泉资本的路演沟通和三季报中提出,2019和2020两年是资产管理行业的好年头,资管产品普遍取得了较好收益,但这并不是常态。从周期和估值的角度看,我们认为明年(2021年)大概率会是个“小年”了,尽管追求正收益仍然大有希望,但在收益率的预期上我们比较保守。简单理解,宁泉资产认为,2021年大概率还是能赚钱的,并不是说小年就是熊市了,只是需要投资者降低收益率预期。值得关注的是,在宁泉资产的12月月报中,其股票仓位仅为45.6%,权益和债券基金占比仅为0.86%,货币基金、银行存款和结算备付金合计占比是46.89%。在其持仓的行业结构中,主要是非银金融,食品饮料仅占比0.96%,低于房地产的1.21%。仅从这个持仓结构看,低估值可能成了宁泉资产配置的重要逻辑。以下是宁泉资产的12月报中做的《近期投资操作短评及未来展望》:近期投资操作短评及未来展望来自宁泉资产12月月报2020 年可谓是惊心动魄跌宕起伏的一年,市场年初经历了恐慌,年末又迎来了火热。回顾全年,随着 IPO 注册制的实施,板块分化愈演愈烈,个股之间的差距在不断拉大,“赛道正确”的公司被赋予了越来越高的溢价,而冷门的板块始终无人问津。大盘以最后一天的大涨结束了这不平凡的一年,上证综指收盘在了年内新高点,我们的大部分产品净值也随着市场的上涨创出新高。,新能源行业未来发展的前景是非常光明和鼓舞人心的,新能源革命将会深刻地改变我们的社会、环境、日常生活,还将显著改变全球地缘政治格局、国家实力对比和国际关系。中国在新能源革命中处于一个非常有利的位置。太阳能在不远的将来就会成为电力的主要来源,当前光伏发电在全球各个地区几乎都具有了成本竞争力,随着成本的进一步下降,光伏发电不仅仅是替代火电,还将抑制核电、风电等其他清洁能源的发展,因为太阳能最终会在综合成本上最具优势,而且阳光无处不在。所以,新能源的发展过程并非只是对旧的化石能源的不断替代,同时也是不同新能源方式的竞争,同一种能源之间不同技术路径的竞争,同一种技术路径上的企业之间价格的竞争。从过往经验看,新兴行业面临的竞争往往更加激烈和冷酷无情,新能源汽车领域也是同样的情况。各种交通工具的电动化趋势发展迅猛且不可阻挡,目前来看纯电动的路线将是主流,德国的几大汽车巨头在两年多前就明确选择了电动汽车路线进行大力转型,而依然所以严格的说,我们其实是看好光伏,电动汽车,储能这几个方面的巨大发展前景,但我们并非对所有的新能源技术和行业发展都乐观。再回到投资上,我们也不认为现在是投资光伏、锂电、电动汽车的股票的好时机了,可以和持有人汇报的是我们已经逐步在退出新能源相关的股票,因为目前的性价比对投资者已经很不友好。也许个别强大且幸运的领先企业可以通过时间来化解估值,成为最终真正的王者,但大多数被暴炒的新能源股票恐怕未来只能以股价的大幅下跌来消化估值了。科技进步让世界充满了快速的变化,让产业充满残酷的优胜劣汰,在 10 年前出版的《掘金绿色投资》一书中,作者介绍了几十家新能源方面的代表公司,目前这批公司有一半以上已经破产或接近破产。在未来巨大的变化面前,A 股的市场不是非黑即白,大部分时间指数可能也没有明确的方向,对个股的研究和估值把握将越来越重要。在新的一年里,我们将继续在能力圈范围内寻找机会,保持谨慎,不去承担和收益不匹配的风险,努力让持有人资产实现长期稳健的保值增值。附宁泉资产前三季度对市场的研判一季报:对收益有信心,加仓光伏、券商股目前的指数和估值从历史角度来考量处于较低位置,我们对未来半年以上的投资收益数学期望值为正,比较有信心。我们也重新检视了支持我们投资的各个长期逻辑,在加入新冠疫情这个新变量后,这些长期逻辑绝大多数都依然成立。现在,我们更多的是进行一些调仓,新成立的产品则会借助股市的低迷积极的建仓。当然,新冠疫情的影响肯定是巨大的,我们在股票和行业的选择上必须把这个影响考虑进去,选择相对不受疫情影响的,或是股票已经充分甚至过度反应疫情影响的。我们对出现大幅回调的光伏龙头股进行了加仓,疫情会影响今年的海外市场需求,但和其他一些受影响严重的行业相比,光伏行业的特点其受影响程度其实是相对温和的,行业的长期前景不会有多少改变,疫情过后暂时被压制的需求会继续释放。另外我们认为券商行业几乎不受疫情影响,随着国家不断提升资本市场在经济发展中的作用与地位,大力发展直接融资,券商行业的发展前景和空间相当不错。从估值角度看,我们认为A股券商股的估值基本到位,个别甚至高估。我们布局的基本是券商H股。如果市场继续下跌,我们会不断逢低吸纳,产品的净值波动可能会进一步加大,但是如果我们对未来回升充满信心,为了未来收益的实现,我们会容忍一定的下跌波动,我们相信疫情终将过去,股市会回到它长期的轨道上去,持仓股票的基本面质地和发展前景是我们的信心来源,我们会耐心等待。二季报:市场疯涨,估值压力巨大我们在一季度的市场调整中,积极加仓了大幅回调的光伏龙头股,随着海外需求数据不断超预期,光伏龙头股票强力回升并创出新高。同时,我们加大配置的低估港股券商股也逐渐被资金所关注到,出现较好表现。因此,我们的净值很快收复失地并随着市场反弹再次创出新高。对于未来的可能演绎,如果当前市场能够明智地被快速降温,并出现深幅调整的话,市场仍有望维持原有的震荡缓慢攀升的格局。但如果进一步失控地疯狂上涨的话,那么就有可能在较短的时间内发泄完疯狂以后,再次陷入A股历史上牛短熊长的循环,用未来长时间的低迷来弥补这一次的疯狂。随着注册制的逐步实施,IPO和再融资都将大幅增加,股票的供给会源源不断,目前的估值水平承受这样的压力是巨大的,疯狂上涨的市场到底是谁的盛宴其实是很清楚的。三季报:已降仓,2021仍有正收益的大希望出于绝对收益的考量,我们在三季度市场热情高涨的时候,陆续兑现了一些获利丰厚且对未来业绩有所透支的个股,产品仓位出现了一定程度下降,并在后续的市场调整中增加了低估值蓝筹股票的配置,产品净值在市场震荡中保持平稳并持续创出新高。目前我们的资本市场正在发生明显的变革,由于应对疫情需要今年的资金面非常宽松,中央严控房价上涨的政策也导致大量房市资金转向股市投资。但同时,我们也要看到注册制在科创板和创业板的顺利实施以及未来向主板市场的进一步推广,股票的供给数量和速度都要远超以往,供求关系能够更加市场化,对优质股票不是坏事,但大量缺乏估值基础的个股将面临很大估值压力。2019和2020两年是资产管理行业的好年头,资管产品普遍取得了较好收益,但这并不是常态。从周期和估值的角度看,我们认为明年大概率会是个“小年”了,尽管追求正收益仍然大有希望,但在收益率的预期上我们比较保守。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3417,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":943929921,"gmtCreate":1594372063163,"gmtModify":1704205419856,"author":{"id":"3531316032088888","authorId":"3531316032088888","name":"吃饭睡觉打小新","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eac0ffde6a14e8027c90d052f29c36cc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3531316032088888","authorIdStr":"3531316032088888"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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