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Mr_zhang_qy
2022-03-10
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
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Mr_zhang_qy
2022-03-09
$WTI原油主连 2204(CLmain)$
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Mr_zhang_qy
2021-04-08
$迅雷(XNET)$
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2021-03-05
上70就空你，差不多了，还涨
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Meeting，ONOMM)，会议决定OPEC+在4月保持产量基本不变，俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦分别获得13、2万桶/天的增产豁免，沙特仍将在4月维持100万桶/天的额外减产。若计入此前减产未达标国(伊拉克、尼日利亚)的补偿性减产，预计OPEC+4月减产规模(相比2018年10月)为800-810万桶/天，远超此前市场预期660-670万桶/天的减产规模。同时美联储主席鲍威尔表态将继续维持宽松金融环境。供应端超预期收紧叠加美联储偏鸽派表态，Brent、WTI盘中一度涨至67.65、64.81美元/桶，涨幅分别为5.59%、5.76%，再次突破前高。</p><p><b>供给端变化成为当前油价交易主逻辑，预计OPEC+仍将积极限产以支撑油价。</b></p><p>油价整体由供给、需求、流动性等三个因素决定，且趋势上受当前时点供应、需求中不确定更强的一端主控。在疫苗接种率迅速上升、需求明确复苏的背景下，供应端的边际变化将成为年内油价运行的主逻辑。我们观察到当前美国页岩油企业财务杠杆系数仍处高位，预计仍需要1年或更久的时间恢复，页岩油不具备短期内大幅增产的财务基础。在美国页岩油增产失效的情况下，OPEC+更倾向于通过限产来维持高价即期合约和Backward期货结构，以推动库存持续回落，供应端仍可为后续油价走势提供坚实支撑。</p><p><b>从历史经验和基本面情况判断，此轮油价上行周期有望再持续1年以上。</b></p><p>复盘油价历史，1998年以来的5轮油价上行周期持续时间均在2-3年左右。基本面角度来看，全球需求正在持续复苏，预计2021年底至2022年上半年有望恢复至疫情前水平，长期来看，2014年以来低油价导致的低资本开支导致全球原油供应端潜力不足。目前除亚太地区以外，美国、欧洲、中东原油库存均已回落至5年均值或以下，OPEC+减产仍在推动原油库存向其预期的“2015年以前低水平”回落。结合油价历史复盘、供需格局和产油国诉求，我们认为此轮油价上行周期或有望再持续1年以上。</p><p><b>风险因素：</b></p><p>需求复苏不及预期；产油国减产不及预期；流动性宽松不及预期。</p><p><b>投资策略：</b></p><p>OPEC+限产远超预期，推动油价再次突破前高。油价整体由供给、需求、流动性等三个因素决定，且趋势上受当前时点供应、需求中不确定更强的一端主控，需求明确复苏背景下，供应端OPEC+的减产有望持续为油价提供支撑，结合油价历史复盘、当前基本面格局和产油国诉求，我们认为此轮油价上行周期远未结束，或有望再持续1年以上。在油价持续回升、需求复苏推动行业景气复苏背景下，叠加相关行业龙头的高成长性和相对低估值，推荐布局石油化工的超跌反弹机会：</p><p>1)油价主线：继续推荐上游高弹性标的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00883\">中国海洋石油</a>(H)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601808\">中海油服</a>(A+H)，以及下游受益于油价上涨成本优势不断加强的煤化工龙头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600989\">宝丰能源</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000830\">鲁西化工</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600426\">华鲁恒升</a>，轻烃裂解龙头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002648\">卫星石化</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002221\">东华能源</a>；</p><p>2)顺周期主线：推荐布局受益于需求复苏和油价回升产品价格普涨的化工行业龙头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600309\">万华化学</a>，民营炼化龙头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600346\">恒力石化</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000703\">恒逸石化</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000301\">东方盛虹</a>，化纤产业链龙头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600409\">三友化工</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601233\">桐昆股份</a>，钛白粉龙头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002601\">龙蟒佰利</a>。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中信：OPEC+减产支撑油价，此轮油价上行或有望再持续一年\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-03-05 08:37</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>文章来源：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06030\">中信证券</a>研究</p><p><b>OPEC+限产远超预期，油价再次突破前高。</b></p><p>3月4日，OPEC+召开部长级会议？(OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting，ONOMM)，会议决定OPEC+在4月保持产量基本不变，俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦分别获得13、2万桶/天的增产豁免，沙特仍将在4月维持100万桶/天的额外减产。若计入此前减产未达标国(伊拉克、尼日利亚)的补偿性减产，预计OPEC+4月减产规模(相比2018年10月)为800-810万桶/天，远超此前市场预期660-670万桶/天的减产规模。同时美联储主席鲍威尔表态将继续维持宽松金融环境。供应端超预期收紧叠加美联储偏鸽派表态，Brent、WTI盘中一度涨至67.65、64.81美元/桶，涨幅分别为5.59%、5.76%，再次突破前高。</p><p><b>供给端变化成为当前油价交易主逻辑，预计OPEC+仍将积极限产以支撑油价。</b></p><p>油价整体由供给、需求、流动性等三个因素决定，且趋势上受当前时点供应、需求中不确定更强的一端主控。在疫苗接种率迅速上升、需求明确复苏的背景下，供应端的边际变化将成为年内油价运行的主逻辑。我们观察到当前美国页岩油企业财务杠杆系数仍处高位，预计仍需要1年或更久的时间恢复，页岩油不具备短期内大幅增产的财务基础。在美国页岩油增产失效的情况下，OPEC+更倾向于通过限产来维持高价即期合约和Backward期货结构，以推动库存持续回落，供应端仍可为后续油价走势提供坚实支撑。</p><p><b>从历史经验和基本面情况判断，此轮油价上行周期有望再持续1年以上。</b></p><p>复盘油价历史，1998年以来的5轮油价上行周期持续时间均在2-3年左右。基本面角度来看，全球需求正在持续复苏，预计2021年底至2022年上半年有望恢复至疫情前水平，长期来看，2014年以来低油价导致的低资本开支导致全球原油供应端潜力不足。目前除亚太地区以外，美国、欧洲、中东原油库存均已回落至5年均值或以下，OPEC+减产仍在推动原油库存向其预期的“2015年以前低水平”回落。结合油价历史复盘、供需格局和产油国诉求，我们认为此轮油价上行周期或有望再持续1年以上。</p><p><b>风险因素：</b></p><p>需求复苏不及预期；产油国减产不及预期；流动性宽松不及预期。</p><p><b>投资策略：</b></p><p>OPEC+限产远超预期，推动油价再次突破前高。油价整体由供给、需求、流动性等三个因素决定，且趋势上受当前时点供应、需求中不确定更强的一端主控，需求明确复苏背景下，供应端OPEC+的减产有望持续为油价提供支撑，结合油价历史复盘、当前基本面格局和产油国诉求，我们认为此轮油价上行周期远未结束，或有望再持续1年以上。在油价持续回升、需求复苏推动行业景气复苏背景下，叠加相关行业龙头的高成长性和相对低估值，推荐布局石油化工的超跌反弹机会：</p><p>1)油价主线：继续推荐上游高弹性标的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00883\">中国海洋石油</a>(H)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601808\">中海油服</a>(A+H)，以及下游受益于油价上涨成本优势不断加强的煤化工龙头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600989\">宝丰能源</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000830\">鲁西化工</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600426\">华鲁恒升</a>，轻烃裂解龙头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002648\">卫星石化</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002221\">东华能源</a>；</p><p>2)顺周期主线：推荐布局受益于需求复苏和油价回升产品价格普涨的化工行业龙头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600309\">万华化学</a>，民营炼化龙头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600346\">恒力石化</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000703\">恒逸石化</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000301\">东方盛虹</a>，化纤产业链龙头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600409\">三友化工</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601233\">桐昆股份</a>，钛白粉龙头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002601\">龙蟒佰利</a>。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/694f12098a1183856ae9f1a61e97c6c4","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186305371","content_text":"文章来源：中信证券研究OPEC+限产远超预期，油价再次突破前高。3月4日，OPEC+召开部长级会议？(OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting，ONOMM)，会议决定OPEC+在4月保持产量基本不变，俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦分别获得13、2万桶/天的增产豁免，沙特仍将在4月维持100万桶/天的额外减产。若计入此前减产未达标国(伊拉克、尼日利亚)的补偿性减产，预计OPEC+4月减产规模(相比2018年10月)为800-810万桶/天，远超此前市场预期660-670万桶/天的减产规模。同时美联储主席鲍威尔表态将继续维持宽松金融环境。供应端超预期收紧叠加美联储偏鸽派表态，Brent、WTI盘中一度涨至67.65、64.81美元/桶，涨幅分别为5.59%、5.76%，再次突破前高。供给端变化成为当前油价交易主逻辑，预计OPEC+仍将积极限产以支撑油价。油价整体由供给、需求、流动性等三个因素决定，且趋势上受当前时点供应、需求中不确定更强的一端主控。在疫苗接种率迅速上升、需求明确复苏的背景下，供应端的边际变化将成为年内油价运行的主逻辑。我们观察到当前美国页岩油企业财务杠杆系数仍处高位，预计仍需要1年或更久的时间恢复，页岩油不具备短期内大幅增产的财务基础。在美国页岩油增产失效的情况下，OPEC+更倾向于通过限产来维持高价即期合约和Backward期货结构，以推动库存持续回落，供应端仍可为后续油价走势提供坚实支撑。从历史经验和基本面情况判断，此轮油价上行周期有望再持续1年以上。复盘油价历史，1998年以来的5轮油价上行周期持续时间均在2-3年左右。基本面角度来看，全球需求正在持续复苏，预计2021年底至2022年上半年有望恢复至疫情前水平，长期来看，2014年以来低油价导致的低资本开支导致全球原油供应端潜力不足。目前除亚太地区以外，美国、欧洲、中东原油库存均已回落至5年均值或以下，OPEC+减产仍在推动原油库存向其预期的“2015年以前低水平”回落。结合油价历史复盘、供需格局和产油国诉求，我们认为此轮油价上行周期或有望再持续1年以上。风险因素：需求复苏不及预期；产油国减产不及预期；流动性宽松不及预期。投资策略：OPEC+限产远超预期，推动油价再次突破前高。油价整体由供给、需求、流动性等三个因素决定，且趋势上受当前时点供应、需求中不确定更强的一端主控，需求明确复苏背景下，供应端OPEC+的减产有望持续为油价提供支撑，结合油价历史复盘、当前基本面格局和产油国诉求，我们认为此轮油价上行周期远未结束，或有望再持续1年以上。在油价持续回升、需求复苏推动行业景气复苏背景下，叠加相关行业龙头的高成长性和相对低估值，推荐布局石油化工的超跌反弹机会：1)油价主线：继续推荐上游高弹性标的中国海洋石油(H)、中海油服(A+H)，以及下游受益于油价上涨成本优势不断加强的煤化工龙头宝丰能源、鲁西化工、华鲁恒升，轻烃裂解龙头卫星石化、东华能源；2)顺周期主线：推荐布局受益于需求复苏和油价回升产品价格普涨的化工行业龙头万华化学，民营炼化龙头恒力石化、恒逸石化、东方盛虹，化纤产业链龙头三友化工、桐昆股份，钛白粉龙头龙蟒佰利。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BZmain":0.9,"CLmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":865,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":635880784,"gmtCreate":1646925569452,"gmtModify":1646925932923,"author":{"id":"3533039717569419","authorId":"3533039717569419","name":"Mr_zhang_qy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d553961e28cd42f240420acaec24d071","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3533039717569419","authorIdStr":"3533039717569419"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>暴力反抽","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>暴力反抽","text":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$暴力反抽","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/635880784","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":697,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":635318527,"gmtCreate":1646834371273,"gmtModify":1646834371273,"author":{"id":"3533039717569419","authorId":"3533039717569419","name":"Mr_zhang_qy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d553961e28cd42f240420acaec24d071","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3533039717569419","authorIdStr":"3533039717569419"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CLmain\">$WTI原油主连 2204(CLmain)$ </a>见顶了？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CLmain\">$WTI原油主连 2204(CLmain)$ </a>见顶了？","text":"$WTI原油主连 2204(CLmain)$ 见顶了？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/635318527","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":498,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
