王五真我的个人主页 - 老虎社区

王五真我

王五真我

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IP属地：北京

41关注

3粉丝

7主题

0勋章

05-05

巴巴要退市了吧？

02-28

$Tempus AI(TEM)$ 这票买不完、买不完。公司团队天天出售股票砸盘，是个典型缅A公司

01-07

不能，美国不允许全球出现更多有影响力的EV厂商

2024-12-18

‌$Tempus AI(TEM)$ ‌1 公司竞争优势显著，细分市场足够大 2 P/S过高、对于当前估值，分歧很大 3 管理层套现，新机构入场 => 短期压制股价，中期流通股逐渐增多，价格回归总结：作为争议性创新参与者，多少参与点，获得惊喜概率很大

2024-09-23

‌总体供需现状不变，国内增量需求空间还有多少

2024-07-10

$10x Genomics, Inc.(TXG)$ 是否会因此收到冲击？

抱歉，原内容已删除

2024-04-30

$恒生科技指数2405(HTI2405)$

2024-04-30

任务完成

2024-04-25

$微型SP500指数2406(MES2406)$ 任务完成

2024-04-11

走起

2024-04-01

继续

2024-03-24

挨打要立正

2024-03-20

每日任务都是浮云

2024-03-19

每日任务

2024-02-03

75卖60买的大股东，有什么值得说的

财报前瞻 | 马云蔡崇信大幅增持阿里巴巴，短期逆风不碍长期投入决心？

2023-12-29

没发现有啥产品优势，手机反正使用2年就频繁发热死机，希望电车不会这样

2023-11-08

$蔚来(NIO)$ $蔚来-SW(09866)$ 越看越像麦道夫和乐视的路数。东干点西干点，财务报表更加复杂，故事愈发宏观，主营业务逐渐落后... 只剩下投资者们的想象力了...

2023-10-12

$哔哩哔哩-W(09626)$ 赛马娘11月上架后，160不算高吧

2023-09-07

$AMC院线(AMC)$ wsb 玩的就是心跳

2023-08-07

$哔哩哔哩-W(09626)$

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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这票买不完、买不完。公司团队天天出售股票砸盘，是个典型缅A公司","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/408401953083832","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2061,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4198996592997092","authorId":"4198996592997092","name":"花花0620","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f9424cb3cc7989f751747b6925efedc","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4198996592997092","authorIdStr":"4198996592997092"},"content":"这么多帖子就你的评论最精辟","text":"这么多帖子就你的评论最精辟","html":"这么多帖子就你的评论最精辟"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":389992947699952,"gmtCreate":1736220825753,"gmtModify":1736220827668,"author":{"id":"3539511802952990","authorId":"3539511802952990","name":"王五真我","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/618b9aae1e801efcbc10c3d3c0e4c100","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3539511802952990","authorIdStr":"3539511802952990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"不能，美国不允许全球出现更多有影响力的EV厂商","listText":"不能，美国不允许全球出现更多有影响力的EV厂商","text":"不能，美国不允许全球出现更多有影响力的EV厂商","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389992947699952","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":484,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":383009935294728,"gmtCreate":1734537488302,"gmtModify":1734537491162,"author":{"id":"3539511802952990","authorId":"3539511802952990","name":"王五真我","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/618b9aae1e801efcbc10c3d3c0e4c100","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3539511802952990","authorIdStr":"3539511802952990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"‌<a 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10:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"财报前瞻 | 马云蔡崇信大幅增持阿里巴巴，短期逆风不碍长期投入决心？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113916396","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"值得注意的是，1月23日，美国证监会网站文件等市场信息显示，阿里巴巴集团创始人马云、蔡崇信近期大幅增持阿里股票，业内人士分析称，这体现了其对阿里巴巴前景非常看好，对公司未来发展、对管理团队及战略方向充满信心。截至2023年12月31日，阿里巴巴集团在董事会授权的股份回购计划下仍余117亿美元回购额度，有效期至2025年3月。预计调整后EBITA 527亿元，同比增1%，利润率20%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>国内多家券商表示，由于线上消费疲软导致国内电商增速有所放缓，阿里国内电商业务短期或将承压，而国际业务将会保持稳健增长；云业务方面，需求修复尚需时间；其他业务预计将实现稳定增长。</p></blockquote><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>将于2月7日发布2024财年第三财季（自然年为2023年第四季度）财报。据彭博分析师预期，阿里巴巴2024财年第三季度营收为2622.77亿人民币，调整后净利润为481.71亿人民币。近期共有45位分析师给出“买入”评级，平均目标价格为112.14美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5de0506e09139d4e9215054745b7c716\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1013\" tg-height=\"570\"/></p><p>值得注意的是，1月23日，美国证监会网站文件等市场信息显示，阿里巴巴集团创始人马云、蔡崇信近期大幅增持阿里股票，业内人士分析称，这体现了其对阿里巴巴前景非常看好，对公司未来发展、对管理团队及战略方向充满信心。</p><p>阿里巴巴集团公告显示，截至2023年12月31日，该公司流通的普通股为200亿股（相当于25亿股美国存托股）。与截至2022年12月31日的207亿股普通股（相当于26亿股美国存托股）相比，过去12个月，其流通股通过股份回购计划净减少了3.3%。</p><p>持续回购公司股票往往彰显了企业对自身未来发展的信心。截至2023年12月31日，阿里巴巴集团在董事会授权的股份回购计划下仍余117亿美元回购额度，有效期至2025年3月。</p><h3 id=\"id_515954028\">上季度业绩回顾</h3><p>2023年三季度，阿里集团实现营收2247.9亿元，同比增长9%；经营利润同比大增34%至335.84亿元；调整后净利润为401.88亿元，同比增长19%；调整后每ADS收益15.63元人民币，同比增长21%；净利润达266.96亿元，较去年同期实现转亏为盈。</p><h3 id=\"id_2067039899\">本季度业绩看点</h3><p>对于阿里巴巴最新财报预测，国内多家券商表示，由于线上消费疲软导致国内电商增速有所放缓，阿里国内电商业务短期或将承压，而国际业务将会保持稳健增长；云业务方面，需求修复尚需时间；其他业务预计将实现稳定增长。</p><h4 id=\"id_1945469433\">电商GMV份额丢失节奏有所放缓</h4><p><strong>华泰证券预计3QFY24淘天集团总收入同比增长2.7%至1，305亿元，其中客户管理收入同比增长1.0%，略低于GMV增速1.5%，主因相对较低变现率的淘宝GMV占比提升拉低平台综合变现率。</strong>得益于低价策略的执行以及用户体验的持续优化，淘天GMV增速与实物商品网上零售额增速差（6.4%，10-11月累计）缩窄至4.9pp（2Q23/3Q23：6pp左右）。我们预计3QFY24淘天集团EBITA同比微增0.4%至595亿，EBITA利润率同比下滑1.0pp，主因在低价商品、商户扶持、AI应用等领域的投入力度加大。</p><p><strong>交银国际预计GMV增速同比转正，统计局数据显示实物电商10/11月增5%/7%，估算12月增速约5%。</strong>客户管理（CMR）收入预计同比增1%，对比此前预期下调约4%，主要由于价格力战略下GMV结构变化，中小商家为主的淘宝占比上升，佣金承压，广告收入增长与GMV增速同步。淘天核心管理层年轻化，预计将继续聚焦平台DAU和消费频次提升。我们预计未来几个季度CMR收入增长仍承压，2024/25财年增速分别4%/3%。</p><h4 id=\"id_1187145106\">国际商业延续强劲增长势头，云业务需求修复尚需时间</h4><p><strong>在强劲的需求支持下，华泰证券预计阿里国际数字商业（AIDC）3QFY24将延续可观的收入增速（+43.6%yoy），但由于在跨境全托管等模式上的投入加大，板块EBITA亏损率或扩大至8.0%（3QFY23：3.3%）。</strong>我们预计AI等新技术对于阿里云集团的收入贡献尚需一定时间来兑现，受需求增长短期承压及公司主动调整低利润率项目的影响，我们预计智能云集团3QFY24收入或同比增长2.0%（2QFY24：+2.3%yoy），但得益于项目结构的优化，板块EBITA利润率或进一步改善至6.5%（2QFY24：5.1%）。</p><p><strong>交银国际：1）国际：预计收入仍然维持高增长，同比增39%，主要来自速卖通Choice服务的拉动，以及Trendyol等跨境平台业务的优异表现。</strong>2）本地生活：收入预期下调约3%，受线下流量恢复及去年高基数影响，同比增速预期（+15%）较上季度略有放缓（+16%）。3）菜鸟：预计国际物流服务拉动收入同比增22%，本土业务受电商影响增长低于菜鸟整体。4）云：预计收入同比微增1%，项目调整持续。5）线下商超业务增长承压及阿里健康高基数影响下，预计所有其他业务收入同比降6%。</p><p><strong>投资建议</strong></p><p><strong>华泰证券认为阿里巴巴的组织架构调整以及新战略的贯彻或仍需一定时间才能在公司基本面上孵化出成果。</strong>受需求增长短期承压的影响，我们预计阿里巴巴3QFY24总收入增速或放缓至5.1%（2QFY24：+8.5% yoy），但公司仍将继续投入于国际商业和AI等富有增长潜力的领域，并通过分红、派息等方式持续回馈股东。我们调整公司FY24/25/26非GAAP净利润预测至1，825/1，885/2，000亿元（前值：1，840/1，905/2，026亿元），基于SOTP估值模型的目标价调整至123.0美元（前值：149.7美元）。</p><p><strong>交易国际预计收入同比增5%至2，608亿元（人民币，下同），较此前预测下调3%，对比市场预期2，669亿元（同比增8%）。</strong>预计调整后EBITA 527亿元，同比增1%，利润率20%。<strong>考虑到短期阿里电商CMR收入增长压力，以及海外业务加大投入的确定性和管理层调整对其他业务发展目标的不确定性，我们下调2024/25财年收入预期1%/2%，EBITA利润下调6%/7%，按SOTP，电商业务每股价值降至83美元/80港元，对应2024日历年10倍市盈率，目标价从117美元/113港元下调至108美元/104港元（9988 HK），维持买入。</strong></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>财报前瞻 | 马云蔡崇信大幅增持阿里巴巴，短期逆风不碍长期投入决心？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n财报前瞻 | 马云蔡崇信大幅增持阿里巴巴，短期逆风不碍长期投入决心？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-01-30 10:11</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>国内多家券商表示，由于线上消费疲软导致国内电商增速有所放缓，阿里国内电商业务短期或将承压，而国际业务将会保持稳健增长；云业务方面，需求修复尚需时间；其他业务预计将实现稳定增长。</p></blockquote><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>将于2月7日发布2024财年第三财季（自然年为2023年第四季度）财报。据彭博分析师预期，阿里巴巴2024财年第三季度营收为2622.77亿人民币，调整后净利润为481.71亿人民币。近期共有45位分析师给出“买入”评级，平均目标价格为112.14美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5de0506e09139d4e9215054745b7c716\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1013\" tg-height=\"570\"/></p><p>值得注意的是，1月23日，美国证监会网站文件等市场信息显示，阿里巴巴集团创始人马云、蔡崇信近期大幅增持阿里股票，业内人士分析称，这体现了其对阿里巴巴前景非常看好，对公司未来发展、对管理团队及战略方向充满信心。</p><p>阿里巴巴集团公告显示，截至2023年12月31日，该公司流通的普通股为200亿股（相当于25亿股美国存托股）。与截至2022年12月31日的207亿股普通股（相当于26亿股美国存托股）相比，过去12个月，其流通股通过股份回购计划净减少了3.3%。</p><p>持续回购公司股票往往彰显了企业对自身未来发展的信心。截至2023年12月31日，阿里巴巴集团在董事会授权的股份回购计划下仍余117亿美元回购额度，有效期至2025年3月。</p><h3 id=\"id_515954028\">上季度业绩回顾</h3><p>2023年三季度，阿里集团实现营收2247.9亿元，同比增长9%；经营利润同比大增34%至335.84亿元；调整后净利润为401.88亿元，同比增长19%；调整后每ADS收益15.63元人民币，同比增长21%；净利润达266.96亿元，较去年同期实现转亏为盈。</p><h3 id=\"id_2067039899\">本季度业绩看点</h3><p>对于阿里巴巴最新财报预测，国内多家券商表示，由于线上消费疲软导致国内电商增速有所放缓，阿里国内电商业务短期或将承压，而国际业务将会保持稳健增长；云业务方面，需求修复尚需时间；其他业务预计将实现稳定增长。</p><h4 id=\"id_1945469433\">电商GMV份额丢失节奏有所放缓</h4><p><strong>华泰证券预计3QFY24淘天集团总收入同比增长2.7%至1，305亿元，其中客户管理收入同比增长1.0%，略低于GMV增速1.5%，主因相对较低变现率的淘宝GMV占比提升拉低平台综合变现率。</strong>得益于低价策略的执行以及用户体验的持续优化，淘天GMV增速与实物商品网上零售额增速差（6.4%，10-11月累计）缩窄至4.9pp（2Q23/3Q23：6pp左右）。我们预计3QFY24淘天集团EBITA同比微增0.4%至595亿，EBITA利润率同比下滑1.0pp，主因在低价商品、商户扶持、AI应用等领域的投入力度加大。</p><p><strong>交银国际预计GMV增速同比转正，统计局数据显示实物电商10/11月增5%/7%，估算12月增速约5%。</strong>客户管理（CMR）收入预计同比增1%，对比此前预期下调约4%，主要由于价格力战略下GMV结构变化，中小商家为主的淘宝占比上升，佣金承压，广告收入增长与GMV增速同步。淘天核心管理层年轻化，预计将继续聚焦平台DAU和消费频次提升。我们预计未来几个季度CMR收入增长仍承压，2024/25财年增速分别4%/3%。</p><h4 id=\"id_1187145106\">国际商业延续强劲增长势头，云业务需求修复尚需时间</h4><p><strong>在强劲的需求支持下，华泰证券预计阿里国际数字商业（AIDC）3QFY24将延续可观的收入增速（+43.6%yoy），但由于在跨境全托管等模式上的投入加大，板块EBITA亏损率或扩大至8.0%（3QFY23：3.3%）。</strong>我们预计AI等新技术对于阿里云集团的收入贡献尚需一定时间来兑现，受需求增长短期承压及公司主动调整低利润率项目的影响，我们预计智能云集团3QFY24收入或同比增长2.0%（2QFY24：+2.3%yoy），但得益于项目结构的优化，板块EBITA利润率或进一步改善至6.5%（2QFY24：5.1%）。</p><p><strong>交银国际：1）国际：预计收入仍然维持高增长，同比增39%，主要来自速卖通Choice服务的拉动，以及Trendyol等跨境平台业务的优异表现。</strong>2）本地生活：收入预期下调约3%，受线下流量恢复及去年高基数影响，同比增速预期（+15%）较上季度略有放缓（+16%）。3）菜鸟：预计国际物流服务拉动收入同比增22%，本土业务受电商影响增长低于菜鸟整体。4）云：预计收入同比微增1%，项目调整持续。5）线下商超业务增长承压及阿里健康高基数影响下，预计所有其他业务收入同比降6%。</p><p><strong>投资建议</strong></p><p><strong>华泰证券认为阿里巴巴的组织架构调整以及新战略的贯彻或仍需一定时间才能在公司基本面上孵化出成果。</strong>受需求增长短期承压的影响，我们预计阿里巴巴3QFY24总收入增速或放缓至5.1%（2QFY24：+8.5% yoy），但公司仍将继续投入于国际商业和AI等富有增长潜力的领域，并通过分红、派息等方式持续回馈股东。我们调整公司FY24/25/26非GAAP净利润预测至1，825/1，885/2，000亿元（前值：1，840/1，905/2，026亿元），基于SOTP估值模型的目标价调整至123.0美元（前值：149.7美元）。</p><p><strong>交易国际预计收入同比增5%至2，608亿元（人民币，下同），较此前预测下调3%，对比市场预期2，669亿元（同比增8%）。</strong>预计调整后EBITA 527亿元，同比增1%，利润率20%。<strong>考虑到短期阿里电商CMR收入增长压力，以及海外业务加大投入的确定性和管理层调整对其他业务发展目标的不确定性，我们下调2024/25财年收入预期1%/2%，EBITA利润下调6%/7%，按SOTP，电商业务每股价值降至83美元/80港元，对应2024日历年10倍市盈率，目标价从117美元/113港元下调至108美元/104港元（9988 HK），维持买入。</strong></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05ddeb1f7be03fe06014ae549a8abe22","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113916396","content_text":"国内多家券商表示，由于线上消费疲软导致国内电商增速有所放缓，阿里国内电商业务短期或将承压，而国际业务将会保持稳健增长；云业务方面，需求修复尚需时间；其他业务预计将实现稳定增长。阿里巴巴将于2月7日发布2024财年第三财季（自然年为2023年第四季度）财报。据彭博分析师预期，阿里巴巴2024财年第三季度营收为2622.77亿人民币，调整后净利润为481.71亿人民币。近期共有45位分析师给出“买入”评级，平均目标价格为112.14美元。值得注意的是，1月23日，美国证监会网站文件等市场信息显示，阿里巴巴集团创始人马云、蔡崇信近期大幅增持阿里股票，业内人士分析称，这体现了其对阿里巴巴前景非常看好，对公司未来发展、对管理团队及战略方向充满信心。阿里巴巴集团公告显示，截至2023年12月31日，该公司流通的普通股为200亿股（相当于25亿股美国存托股）。与截至2022年12月31日的207亿股普通股（相当于26亿股美国存托股）相比，过去12个月，其流通股通过股份回购计划净减少了3.3%。持续回购公司股票往往彰显了企业对自身未来发展的信心。截至2023年12月31日，阿里巴巴集团在董事会授权的股份回购计划下仍余117亿美元回购额度，有效期至2025年3月。上季度业绩回顾2023年三季度，阿里集团实现营收2247.9亿元，同比增长9%；经营利润同比大增34%至335.84亿元；调整后净利润为401.88亿元，同比增长19%；调整后每ADS收益15.63元人民币，同比增长21%；净利润达266.96亿元，较去年同期实现转亏为盈。本季度业绩看点对于阿里巴巴最新财报预测，国内多家券商表示，由于线上消费疲软导致国内电商增速有所放缓，阿里国内电商业务短期或将承压，而国际业务将会保持稳健增长；云业务方面，需求修复尚需时间；其他业务预计将实现稳定增长。电商GMV份额丢失节奏有所放缓华泰证券预计3QFY24淘天集团总收入同比增长2.7%至1，305亿元，其中客户管理收入同比增长1.0%，略低于GMV增速1.5%，主因相对较低变现率的淘宝GMV占比提升拉低平台综合变现率。得益于低价策略的执行以及用户体验的持续优化，淘天GMV增速与实物商品网上零售额增速差（6.4%，10-11月累计）缩窄至4.9pp（2Q23/3Q23：6pp左右）。我们预计3QFY24淘天集团EBITA同比微增0.4%至595亿，EBITA利润率同比下滑1.0pp，主因在低价商品、商户扶持、AI应用等领域的投入力度加大。交银国际预计GMV增速同比转正，统计局数据显示实物电商10/11月增5%/7%，估算12月增速约5%。客户管理（CMR）收入预计同比增1%，对比此前预期下调约4%，主要由于价格力战略下GMV结构变化，中小商家为主的淘宝占比上升，佣金承压，广告收入增长与GMV增速同步。淘天核心管理层年轻化，预计将继续聚焦平台DAU和消费频次提升。我们预计未来几个季度CMR收入增长仍承压，2024/25财年增速分别4%/3%。国际商业延续强劲增长势头，云业务需求修复尚需时间在强劲的需求支持下，华泰证券预计阿里国际数字商业（AIDC）3QFY24将延续可观的收入增速（+43.6%yoy），但由于在跨境全托管等模式上的投入加大，板块EBITA亏损率或扩大至8.0%（3QFY23：3.3%）。我们预计AI等新技术对于阿里云集团的收入贡献尚需一定时间来兑现，受需求增长短期承压及公司主动调整低利润率项目的影响，我们预计智能云集团3QFY24收入或同比增长2.0%（2QFY24：+2.3%yoy），但得益于项目结构的优化，板块EBITA利润率或进一步改善至6.5%（2QFY24：5.1%）。交银国际：1）国际：预计收入仍然维持高增长，同比增39%，主要来自速卖通Choice服务的拉动，以及Trendyol等跨境平台业务的优异表现。2）本地生活：收入预期下调约3%，受线下流量恢复及去年高基数影响，同比增速预期（+15%）较上季度略有放缓（+16%）。3）菜鸟：预计国际物流服务拉动收入同比增22%，本土业务受电商影响增长低于菜鸟整体。4）云：预计收入同比微增1%，项目调整持续。5）线下商超业务增长承压及阿里健康高基数影响下，预计所有其他业务收入同比降6%。投资建议华泰证券认为阿里巴巴的组织架构调整以及新战略的贯彻或仍需一定时间才能在公司基本面上孵化出成果。受需求增长短期承压的影响，我们预计阿里巴巴3QFY24总收入增速或放缓至5.1%（2QFY24：+8.5% yoy），但公司仍将继续投入于国际商业和AI等富有增长潜力的领域，并通过分红、派息等方式持续回馈股东。我们调整公司FY24/25/26非GAAP净利润预测至1，825/1，885/2，000亿元（前值：1，840/1，905/2，026亿元），基于SOTP估值模型的目标价调整至123.0美元（前值：149.7美元）。交易国际预计收入同比增5%至2，608亿元（人民币，下同），较此前预测下调3%，对比市场预期2，669亿元（同比增8%）。预计调整后EBITA 527亿元，同比增1%，利润率20%。考虑到短期阿里电商CMR收入增长压力，以及海外业务加大投入的确定性和管理层调整对其他业务发展目标的不确定性，我们下调2024/25财年收入预期1%/2%，EBITA利润下调6%/7%，按SOTP，电商业务每股价值降至83美元/80港元，对应2024日历年10倍市盈率，目标价从117美元/113港元下调至108美元/104港元（9988 HK），维持买入。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09988":1.1,"BABA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2556,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3515323953584109","authorId":"3515323953584109","name":"战神AAAAAAAAAA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99a1e74156f7b2d16541274830055024","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3515323953584109","authorIdStr":"3515323953584109"},"content":"套现50亿!低价买1个亿!慢慢买！","text":"套现50亿!低价买1个亿!慢慢买！","html":"套现50亿!低价买1个亿!慢慢买！"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":257084791083248,"gmtCreate":1703798477362,"gmtModify":1703798479133,"author":{"id":"3539511802952990","authorId":"3539511802952990","name":"王五真我","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/618b9aae1e801efcbc10c3d3c0e4c100","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3539511802952990","authorIdStr":"3539511802952990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"没发现有啥产品优势，手机反正使用2年就频繁发热死机，希望电车不会这样","listText":"没发现有啥产品优势，手机反正使用2年就频繁发热死机，希望电车不会这样","text":"没发现有啥产品优势，手机反正使用2年就频繁发热死机，希望电车不会这样","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/257084791083248","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1672,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":238945681551608,"gmtCreate":1699373507126,"gmtModify":1699373508689,"author":{"id":"3539511802952990","authorId":"3539511802952990","name":"王五真我","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/618b9aae1e801efcbc10c3d3c0e4c100","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3539511802952990","authorIdStr":"3539511802952990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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b：占比较大的其他部分，均涉及作者引用网络资源或其他第三方平台内容，并非作者完全独立原创，也并非知乎独家内容。此部分如果被知乎应用于商业用途进行盈利，将涉及知乎和作者、第三方平台（各类门户或垂直内容平台）分成，法律风险更大。AI公司如果应用后者内容进行模型训练，内容的获取完全不需要通过知乎获得，且成本更低。 3、搜索引擎低成本检索全网内容，持续提供给算法训练，优化模型，才能切实提高AI能力。只有<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">$百度(BIDU)$</a>&nbsp; ,字节等，具有全网信息的汇聚方才具有语料支持能力。 抛开技术层面（数据存储效率，数据计算效率，服务器硬件效率等），仅从数据量规模而言，知乎差的不是一、两点。 4、向AI公司卖内容收版费，不是新模式。本质就是卖字，和AI没有任何关系。利润率透明（可参考视觉中国），且知乎在私域独创内容方面并无壁垒，如果按照合规方式搞，其成本支出远大于其他门户或垂类平台（内容分润支出可参考bili给up主分成），此外无论是从专业语料数据量，还是泛内容数据量角度而言，知乎和垂直领域内容的头部企业对比都不在","text":"$知乎(ZH)$ 和AI有什么关系，为什么不踏踏实实做好自己的商业模式，非要盲目蹭热点呢！ 给AI公司卖内容收费这个方向不是模式： 1、当前知乎内容免费提供给搜索迎请检索，才逐步形成了社区流量和增量内容；如果今后不支持免费检索，知乎的社区流量和内容将会枯竭。基本商业逻辑将不复存在，0.9的股价没有了。 2、知乎上的内容，是答主创作，并不是私域内容。 a：其中占比较小的原创部分，版权涉及知乎和作者两方，知乎如果拿去卖钱而不给作者分润，存在法律风险。 b：占比较大的其他部分，均涉及作者引用网络资源或其他第三方平台内容，并非作者完全独立原创，也并非知乎独家内容。此部分如果被知乎应用于商业用途进行盈利，将涉及知乎和作者、第三方平台（各类门户或垂直内容平台）分成，法律风险更大。AI公司如果应用后者内容进行模型训练，内容的获取完全不需要通过知乎获得，且成本更低。 3、搜索引擎低成本检索全网内容，持续提供给算法训练，优化模型，才能切实提高AI能力。只有$百度(BIDU)$ ,字节等，具有全网信息的汇聚方才具有语料支持能力。 抛开技术层面（数据存储效率，数据计算效率，服务器硬件效率等），仅从数据量规模而言，知乎差的不是一、两点。 4、向AI公司卖内容收版费，不是新模式。本质就是卖字，和AI没有任何关系。利润率透明（可参考视觉中国），且知乎在私域独创内容方面并无壁垒，如果按照合规方式搞，其成本支出远大于其他门户或垂类平台（内容分润支出可参考bili给up主分成），此外无论是从专业语料数据量，还是泛内容数据量角度而言，知乎和垂直领域内容的头部企业对比都不在","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/625972726","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6320,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000687","authorId":"9000000000000687","name":"先救我她有对象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41ac112b8ed10bb069533864c6e9000d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000687","authorIdStr":"9000000000000687"},"content":"总市值 11.0亿 成交量 734.49万 市盈率TTM -4.25 流通市值 5.3亿 股息 -- 市盈率LYR -3.65 总股本 6.23亿 股息收益率 -- 每股收益TTM -0.41 流通股本 2.99亿 ROA -13.18% 每股收益LYR -0.48 52周最高 4.32 ROE -27.56% 市净率 1.27，财务数据比较一般","text":"总市值 11.0亿 成交量 734.49万 市盈率TTM -4.25 流通市值 5.3亿 股息 -- 市盈率LYR -3.65 总股本 6.23亿 股息收益率 -- 每股收益TTM -0.41 流通股本 2.99亿 ROA -13.18% 每股收益LYR -0.48 52周最高 4.32 ROE -27.56% 市净率 1.27，财务数据比较一般","html":"总市值 11.0亿 成交量 734.49万 市盈率TTM -4.25 流通市值 5.3亿 股息 -- 市盈率LYR -3.65 总股本 6.23亿 股息收益率 -- 每股收益TTM -0.41 流通股本 2.99亿 ROA -13.18% 每股收益LYR -0.48 52周最高 4.32 ROE -27.56% 市净率 1.27，财务数据比较一般"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":622924687,"gmtCreate":1675147453649,"gmtModify":1675147858594,"author":{"id":"3539511802952990","authorId":"3539511802952990","name":"王五真我","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/618b9aae1e801efcbc10c3d3c0e4c100","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3539511802952990","authorIdStr":"3539511802952990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"股票交易和现货交易相似，除了无需仓储管理，其他并无区别：核心策略都专注于品类（选股）、买、卖、库存(仓位)、时间五个维度动作的管理","listText":"股票交易和现货交易相似，除了无需仓储管理，其他并无区别：核心策略都专注于品类（选股）、买、卖、库存(仓位)、时间五个维度动作的管理","text":"股票交易和现货交易相似，除了无需仓储管理，其他并无区别：核心策略都专注于品类（选股）、买、卖、库存(仓位)、时间五个维度动作的管理","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/622924687","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":942,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":408401953083832,"gmtCreate":1740725443445,"gmtModify":1740725444979,"author":{"id":"3539511802952990","authorId":"3539511802952990","name":"王五真我","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/618b9aae1e801efcbc10c3d3c0e4c100","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3539511802952990","authorIdStr":"3539511802952990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TEM\">$Tempus AI(TEM)$&nbsp;</a> 这票买不完、买不完。公司团队天天出售股票砸盘，是个典型缅A公司","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TEM\">$Tempus AI(TEM)$&nbsp;</a> 这票买不完、买不完。公司团队天天出售股票砸盘，是个典型缅A公司","text":"$Tempus AI(TEM)$ 这票买不完、买不完。公司团队天天出售股票砸盘，是个典型缅A公司","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/408401953083832","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2061,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4198996592997092","authorId":"4198996592997092","name":"花花0620","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f9424cb3cc7989f751747b6925efedc","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4198996592997092","authorIdStr":"4198996592997092"},"content":"这么多帖子就你的评论最精辟","text":"这么多帖子就你的评论最精辟","html":"这么多帖子就你的评论最精辟"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":383009935294728,"gmtCreate":1734537488302,"gmtModify":1734537491162,"author":{"id":"3539511802952990","authorId":"3539511802952990","name":"王五真我","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/618b9aae1e801efcbc10c3d3c0e4c100","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3539511802952990","authorIdStr":"3539511802952990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"‌<a href=\"https://www.laohu8.com/S/TEM\">$Tempus AI(TEM)$ &nbsp;</a> ‌1 公司竞争优势显著，细分市场足够大 2 P/S过高、对于当前估值，分歧很大 3 管理层套现， 新机构入场 =&gt; 短期压制股价，中期流通股逐渐增多，价格回归 总结：作为争议性创新参与者，多少参与点，获得惊喜概率很大","listText":"‌<a href=\"https://www.laohu8.com/S/TEM\">$Tempus AI(TEM)$ &nbsp;</a> ‌1 公司竞争优势显著，细分市场足够大 2 P/S过高、对于当前估值，分歧很大 3 管理层套现， 新机构入场 =&gt; 短期压制股价，中期流通股逐渐增多，价格回归 总结：作为争议性创新参与者，多少参与点，获得惊喜概率很大","text":"‌$Tempus AI(TEM)$ ‌1 公司竞争优势显著，细分市场足够大 2 P/S过高、对于当前估值，分歧很大 3 管理层套现， 新机构入场 => 短期压制股价，中期流通股逐渐增多，价格回归 总结：作为争议性创新参与者，多少参与点，获得惊喜概率很大","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/383009935294728","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2925,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3585687320157965","authorId":"3585687320157965","name":"Steven_Dai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f464a3d6a0544468f22ad29aaefbf14d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3585687320157965","authorIdStr":"3585687320157965"},"content":"高管套现的嘴脸太难看了","text":"高管套现的嘴脸太难看了","html":"高管套现的嘴脸太难看了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":270117743636704,"gmtCreate":1706954567389,"gmtModify":1706954568866,"author":{"id":"3539511802952990","authorId":"3539511802952990","name":"王五真我","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/618b9aae1e801efcbc10c3d3c0e4c100","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3539511802952990","authorIdStr":"3539511802952990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"75卖60买的大股东，有什么值得说的","listText":"75卖60买的大股东，有什么值得说的","text":"75卖60买的大股东，有什么值得说的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/270117743636704","repostId":"1113916396","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1113916396","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1706580715,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1113916396?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-01-30 10:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"财报前瞻 | 马云蔡崇信大幅增持阿里巴巴，短期逆风不碍长期投入决心？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113916396","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"值得注意的是，1月23日，美国证监会网站文件等市场信息显示，阿里巴巴集团创始人马云、蔡崇信近期大幅增持阿里股票，业内人士分析称，这体现了其对阿里巴巴前景非常看好，对公司未来发展、对管理团队及战略方向充满信心。截至2023年12月31日，阿里巴巴集团在董事会授权的股份回购计划下仍余117亿美元回购额度，有效期至2025年3月。预计调整后EBITA 527亿元，同比增1%，利润率20%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>国内多家券商表示，由于线上消费疲软导致国内电商增速有所放缓，阿里国内电商业务短期或将承压，而国际业务将会保持稳健增长；云业务方面，需求修复尚需时间；其他业务预计将实现稳定增长。</p></blockquote><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>将于2月7日发布2024财年第三财季（自然年为2023年第四季度）财报。据彭博分析师预期，阿里巴巴2024财年第三季度营收为2622.77亿人民币，调整后净利润为481.71亿人民币。近期共有45位分析师给出“买入”评级，平均目标价格为112.14美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5de0506e09139d4e9215054745b7c716\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1013\" tg-height=\"570\"/></p><p>值得注意的是，1月23日，美国证监会网站文件等市场信息显示，阿里巴巴集团创始人马云、蔡崇信近期大幅增持阿里股票，业内人士分析称，这体现了其对阿里巴巴前景非常看好，对公司未来发展、对管理团队及战略方向充满信心。</p><p>阿里巴巴集团公告显示，截至2023年12月31日，该公司流通的普通股为200亿股（相当于25亿股美国存托股）。与截至2022年12月31日的207亿股普通股（相当于26亿股美国存托股）相比，过去12个月，其流通股通过股份回购计划净减少了3.3%。</p><p>持续回购公司股票往往彰显了企业对自身未来发展的信心。截至2023年12月31日，阿里巴巴集团在董事会授权的股份回购计划下仍余117亿美元回购额度，有效期至2025年3月。</p><h3 id=\"id_515954028\">上季度业绩回顾</h3><p>2023年三季度，阿里集团实现营收2247.9亿元，同比增长9%；经营利润同比大增34%至335.84亿元；调整后净利润为401.88亿元，同比增长19%；调整后每ADS收益15.63元人民币，同比增长21%；净利润达266.96亿元，较去年同期实现转亏为盈。</p><h3 id=\"id_2067039899\">本季度业绩看点</h3><p>对于阿里巴巴最新财报预测，国内多家券商表示，由于线上消费疲软导致国内电商增速有所放缓，阿里国内电商业务短期或将承压，而国际业务将会保持稳健增长；云业务方面，需求修复尚需时间；其他业务预计将实现稳定增长。</p><h4 id=\"id_1945469433\">电商GMV份额丢失节奏有所放缓</h4><p><strong>华泰证券预计3QFY24淘天集团总收入同比增长2.7%至1，305亿元，其中客户管理收入同比增长1.0%，略低于GMV增速1.5%，主因相对较低变现率的淘宝GMV占比提升拉低平台综合变现率。</strong>得益于低价策略的执行以及用户体验的持续优化，淘天GMV增速与实物商品网上零售额增速差（6.4%，10-11月累计）缩窄至4.9pp（2Q23/3Q23：6pp左右）。我们预计3QFY24淘天集团EBITA同比微增0.4%至595亿，EBITA利润率同比下滑1.0pp，主因在低价商品、商户扶持、AI应用等领域的投入力度加大。</p><p><strong>交银国际预计GMV增速同比转正，统计局数据显示实物电商10/11月增5%/7%，估算12月增速约5%。</strong>客户管理（CMR）收入预计同比增1%，对比此前预期下调约4%，主要由于价格力战略下GMV结构变化，中小商家为主的淘宝占比上升，佣金承压，广告收入增长与GMV增速同步。淘天核心管理层年轻化，预计将继续聚焦平台DAU和消费频次提升。我们预计未来几个季度CMR收入增长仍承压，2024/25财年增速分别4%/3%。</p><h4 id=\"id_1187145106\">国际商业延续强劲增长势头，云业务需求修复尚需时间</h4><p><strong>在强劲的需求支持下，华泰证券预计阿里国际数字商业（AIDC）3QFY24将延续可观的收入增速（+43.6%yoy），但由于在跨境全托管等模式上的投入加大，板块EBITA亏损率或扩大至8.0%（3QFY23：3.3%）。</strong>我们预计AI等新技术对于阿里云集团的收入贡献尚需一定时间来兑现，受需求增长短期承压及公司主动调整低利润率项目的影响，我们预计智能云集团3QFY24收入或同比增长2.0%（2QFY24：+2.3%yoy），但得益于项目结构的优化，板块EBITA利润率或进一步改善至6.5%（2QFY24：5.1%）。</p><p><strong>交银国际：1）国际：预计收入仍然维持高增长，同比增39%，主要来自速卖通Choice服务的拉动，以及Trendyol等跨境平台业务的优异表现。</strong>2）本地生活：收入预期下调约3%，受线下流量恢复及去年高基数影响，同比增速预期（+15%）较上季度略有放缓（+16%）。3）菜鸟：预计国际物流服务拉动收入同比增22%，本土业务受电商影响增长低于菜鸟整体。4）云：预计收入同比微增1%，项目调整持续。5）线下商超业务增长承压及阿里健康高基数影响下，预计所有其他业务收入同比降6%。</p><p><strong>投资建议</strong></p><p><strong>华泰证券认为阿里巴巴的组织架构调整以及新战略的贯彻或仍需一定时间才能在公司基本面上孵化出成果。</strong>受需求增长短期承压的影响，我们预计阿里巴巴3QFY24总收入增速或放缓至5.1%（2QFY24：+8.5% yoy），但公司仍将继续投入于国际商业和AI等富有增长潜力的领域，并通过分红、派息等方式持续回馈股东。我们调整公司FY24/25/26非GAAP净利润预测至1，825/1，885/2，000亿元（前值：1，840/1，905/2，026亿元），基于SOTP估值模型的目标价调整至123.0美元（前值：149.7美元）。</p><p><strong>交易国际预计收入同比增5%至2，608亿元（人民币，下同），较此前预测下调3%，对比市场预期2，669亿元（同比增8%）。</strong>预计调整后EBITA 527亿元，同比增1%，利润率20%。<strong>考虑到短期阿里电商CMR收入增长压力，以及海外业务加大投入的确定性和管理层调整对其他业务发展目标的不确定性，我们下调2024/25财年收入预期1%/2%，EBITA利润下调6%/7%，按SOTP，电商业务每股价值降至83美元/80港元，对应2024日历年10倍市盈率，目标价从117美元/113港元下调至108美元/104港元（9988 HK），维持买入。</strong></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>财报前瞻 | 马云蔡崇信大幅增持阿里巴巴，短期逆风不碍长期投入决心？</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n财报前瞻 | 马云蔡崇信大幅增持阿里巴巴，短期逆风不碍长期投入决心？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-01-30 10:11</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>国内多家券商表示，由于线上消费疲软导致国内电商增速有所放缓，阿里国内电商业务短期或将承压，而国际业务将会保持稳健增长；云业务方面，需求修复尚需时间；其他业务预计将实现稳定增长。</p></blockquote><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>将于2月7日发布2024财年第三财季（自然年为2023年第四季度）财报。据彭博分析师预期，阿里巴巴2024财年第三季度营收为2622.77亿人民币，调整后净利润为481.71亿人民币。近期共有45位分析师给出“买入”评级，平均目标价格为112.14美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5de0506e09139d4e9215054745b7c716\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1013\" tg-height=\"570\"/></p><p>值得注意的是，1月23日，美国证监会网站文件等市场信息显示，阿里巴巴集团创始人马云、蔡崇信近期大幅增持阿里股票，业内人士分析称，这体现了其对阿里巴巴前景非常看好，对公司未来发展、对管理团队及战略方向充满信心。</p><p>阿里巴巴集团公告显示，截至2023年12月31日，该公司流通的普通股为200亿股（相当于25亿股美国存托股）。与截至2022年12月31日的207亿股普通股（相当于26亿股美国存托股）相比，过去12个月，其流通股通过股份回购计划净减少了3.3%。</p><p>持续回购公司股票往往彰显了企业对自身未来发展的信心。截至2023年12月31日，阿里巴巴集团在董事会授权的股份回购计划下仍余117亿美元回购额度，有效期至2025年3月。</p><h3 id=\"id_515954028\">上季度业绩回顾</h3><p>2023年三季度，阿里集团实现营收2247.9亿元，同比增长9%；经营利润同比大增34%至335.84亿元；调整后净利润为401.88亿元，同比增长19%；调整后每ADS收益15.63元人民币，同比增长21%；净利润达266.96亿元，较去年同期实现转亏为盈。</p><h3 id=\"id_2067039899\">本季度业绩看点</h3><p>对于阿里巴巴最新财报预测，国内多家券商表示，由于线上消费疲软导致国内电商增速有所放缓，阿里国内电商业务短期或将承压，而国际业务将会保持稳健增长；云业务方面，需求修复尚需时间；其他业务预计将实现稳定增长。</p><h4 id=\"id_1945469433\">电商GMV份额丢失节奏有所放缓</h4><p><strong>华泰证券预计3QFY24淘天集团总收入同比增长2.7%至1，305亿元，其中客户管理收入同比增长1.0%，略低于GMV增速1.5%，主因相对较低变现率的淘宝GMV占比提升拉低平台综合变现率。</strong>得益于低价策略的执行以及用户体验的持续优化，淘天GMV增速与实物商品网上零售额增速差（6.4%，10-11月累计）缩窄至4.9pp（2Q23/3Q23：6pp左右）。我们预计3QFY24淘天集团EBITA同比微增0.4%至595亿，EBITA利润率同比下滑1.0pp，主因在低价商品、商户扶持、AI应用等领域的投入力度加大。</p><p><strong>交银国际预计GMV增速同比转正，统计局数据显示实物电商10/11月增5%/7%，估算12月增速约5%。</strong>客户管理（CMR）收入预计同比增1%，对比此前预期下调约4%，主要由于价格力战略下GMV结构变化，中小商家为主的淘宝占比上升，佣金承压，广告收入增长与GMV增速同步。淘天核心管理层年轻化，预计将继续聚焦平台DAU和消费频次提升。我们预计未来几个季度CMR收入增长仍承压，2024/25财年增速分别4%/3%。</p><h4 id=\"id_1187145106\">国际商业延续强劲增长势头，云业务需求修复尚需时间</h4><p><strong>在强劲的需求支持下，华泰证券预计阿里国际数字商业（AIDC）3QFY24将延续可观的收入增速（+43.6%yoy），但由于在跨境全托管等模式上的投入加大，板块EBITA亏损率或扩大至8.0%（3QFY23：3.3%）。</strong>我们预计AI等新技术对于阿里云集团的收入贡献尚需一定时间来兑现，受需求增长短期承压及公司主动调整低利润率项目的影响，我们预计智能云集团3QFY24收入或同比增长2.0%（2QFY24：+2.3%yoy），但得益于项目结构的优化，板块EBITA利润率或进一步改善至6.5%（2QFY24：5.1%）。</p><p><strong>交银国际：1）国际：预计收入仍然维持高增长，同比增39%，主要来自速卖通Choice服务的拉动，以及Trendyol等跨境平台业务的优异表现。</strong>2）本地生活：收入预期下调约3%，受线下流量恢复及去年高基数影响，同比增速预期（+15%）较上季度略有放缓（+16%）。3）菜鸟：预计国际物流服务拉动收入同比增22%，本土业务受电商影响增长低于菜鸟整体。4）云：预计收入同比微增1%，项目调整持续。5）线下商超业务增长承压及阿里健康高基数影响下，预计所有其他业务收入同比降6%。</p><p><strong>投资建议</strong></p><p><strong>华泰证券认为阿里巴巴的组织架构调整以及新战略的贯彻或仍需一定时间才能在公司基本面上孵化出成果。</strong>受需求增长短期承压的影响，我们预计阿里巴巴3QFY24总收入增速或放缓至5.1%（2QFY24：+8.5% yoy），但公司仍将继续投入于国际商业和AI等富有增长潜力的领域，并通过分红、派息等方式持续回馈股东。我们调整公司FY24/25/26非GAAP净利润预测至1，825/1，885/2，000亿元（前值：1，840/1，905/2，026亿元），基于SOTP估值模型的目标价调整至123.0美元（前值：149.7美元）。</p><p><strong>交易国际预计收入同比增5%至2，608亿元（人民币，下同），较此前预测下调3%，对比市场预期2，669亿元（同比增8%）。</strong>预计调整后EBITA 527亿元，同比增1%，利润率20%。<strong>考虑到短期阿里电商CMR收入增长压力，以及海外业务加大投入的确定性和管理层调整对其他业务发展目标的不确定性，我们下调2024/25财年收入预期1%/2%，EBITA利润下调6%/7%，按SOTP，电商业务每股价值降至83美元/80港元，对应2024日历年10倍市盈率，目标价从117美元/113港元下调至108美元/104港元（9988 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yoy），但公司仍将继续投入于国际商业和AI等富有增长潜力的领域，并通过分红、派息等方式持续回馈股东。我们调整公司FY24/25/26非GAAP净利润预测至1，825/1，885/2，000亿元（前值：1，840/1，905/2，026亿元），基于SOTP估值模型的目标价调整至123.0美元（前值：149.7美元）。交易国际预计收入同比增5%至2，608亿元（人民币，下同），较此前预测下调3%，对比市场预期2，669亿元（同比增8%）。预计调整后EBITA 527亿元，同比增1%，利润率20%。考虑到短期阿里电商CMR收入增长压力，以及海外业务加大投入的确定性和管理层调整对其他业务发展目标的不确定性，我们下调2024/25财年收入预期1%/2%，EBITA利润下调6%/7%，按SOTP，电商业务每股价值降至83美元/80港元，对应2024日历年10倍市盈率，目标价从117美元/113港元下调至108美元/104港元（9988 HK），维持买入。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09988":1.1,"BABA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2556,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3515323953584109","authorId":"3515323953584109","name":"战神AAAAAAAAAA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99a1e74156f7b2d16541274830055024","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3515323953584109","authorIdStr":"3515323953584109"},"content":"套现50亿!低价买1个亿!慢慢买！","text":"套现50亿!低价买1个亿!慢慢买！","html":"套现50亿!低价买1个亿!慢慢买！"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":238945681551608,"gmtCreate":1699373507126,"gmtModify":1699373508689,"author":{"id":"3539511802952990","authorId":"3539511802952990","name":"王五真我","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/618b9aae1e801efcbc10c3d3c0e4c100","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3539511802952990","authorIdStr":"3539511802952990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$ </a><a 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