赛车猫的个人主页 - 老虎社区

赛车猫

赛车猫

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IP属地：江苏

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07-05 13:01

应该是吃饭的吧

兴业研究：美国“大美丽法案”有何影响？

07-03

我开仓了1手$UNH 20250711 295.0 PUT$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单！

07-02

$CapsoVision, Inc.(CV)$

07-02

07-02

我开仓了1手$TSLA 20250711 260.0 PUT$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单！

07-02

$Mogo Finance Technology Inc.(MOGO)$ 运气

07-02

我开仓了1手$AAPL 20250711 200.0 PUT$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单！

07-01

我开仓了2手$UNH 20260320 270.0 PUT$ ,否极泰来，看好联合健康

07-01

我平仓了1手$UNH 20251219 320.0 PUT$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单！

07-01

我开仓了1手$AAPL 20250808 200.0 PUT$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单！

06-30

我开仓了1手$MSTR 20250711 275.0 PUT$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单！

06-30

我开仓了$两倍做多波动率指数期货ETF(UVIX)$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单！@小虎看单

06-30

我平仓了$IFBH(06603)$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单！@小虎看单

06-28

我平仓了1手$GOOG 20250703 170.0 PUT$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单！

06-27

我开仓了3手$MSTR 20250711 260.0 PUT$ ,宾西法利亚计划的本质是美元贬值，利好美股，利好比特币。

06-26

我开仓了1手$GOOG 20250703 170.0 PUT$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单！

06-26

$巨龙在线(JLHL)$ 运气

06-26

$巨龙在线(JLHL)$

06-25

我平仓了1手$GOOG 20250703 167.5 PUT$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单！

06-25

我平仓了$周六福(06168)$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单！@小虎看单

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10:50","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"兴业研究：美国“大美丽法案”有何影响？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2549986314","media":"智通财经网","summary":"“大美丽法案”在美国众议院以微弱优势涉险过关。该法案自推出以来便争议不断，其包含哪些主要内容，又将产生怎样的市场影响？","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>美国时间7月3日，“大美丽法案”(One Big Beautiful Bill)在美国众议院以218-214的微弱优势涉险过关并提交特朗普。共和党人达成了在7月4日美国“独立日”前通过法案的既定目标。该法案自推出以来便争议不断，其包含哪些主要内容，又将产生怎样的市场影响?</p><p>总结来看，“大美丽法案”核心内容包括：2017年减税永久化、大幅削减医疗补助支出、一次性提高债务上限5万亿美元、取消对新能源汽车的税收减免等。最终版法案删除了争议性的“第899条款”，该条款针对实施“歧视性税收政策”的国家的政府、企业、个人、主权财富基金、养老基金及私人信托等征收惩罚性税收。</p><p>“大美丽法案”将使得美国财政前景显著恶化，2017年减税法案永久化是财政赤字恶化的主要来源。2026年财年(今年10月开始)财政赤字立即显著恶化，赤字率将由6%攀升至7%~7.5%。</p><p>短期而言，美国财政赤字扩张有助于托底经济，提高经济软着陆概率。债务上限单次提高5万亿美元利空美债、利多黄金，第三季度10Y收益率有冲击5%的可能，金价在完成此轮调整后中长期仍趋于上涨，回调空间有限(通常不超过10%)。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">美元指数</a>短期跌势放缓，但“去美元化”仍在延续，美元指数长期中枢水平下移。</p><p>该法案主要内容及市场影响如下：</p><p>一、法案主要内容</p><p>“大美丽法案”着眼于减税和提高债务上限，部分削减了医疗补助、新能源补贴等政府开支，具体包括：</p><p>◾ 2017年减税永久化。特朗普在上一个任期推出的2017年减税法案本应在今年到期，此次通过立法将该减税法案条款部分永久化、部分延期(详见下表)，并进一步提高了税收减免上限。</p><p>◾ 大幅削减医疗补助(Medicaid)支出。美国政府的医疗补助参保人数约为7100万人。最新立法进一步严格要求医疗补助的适用标准，19至64岁的医疗补助申请者必须满足每个月工作至少80个小时，否则将不予补助。有需要抚养的子女、满足特殊医疗条件要求等可以成为豁免条件。美国国会预算办公室预计最新的立法将削减1万亿美元医疗补助开支。</p><p>◾ 一次性提高债务上限5万亿美元。</p><p>◾ 取消对新能源汽车的税收减免。</p><p>◾ 降低联邦学生贷款申请上限。</p><p>◾对于外部、自由职业者等符合要求的收入，最高享受23%的减税。</p><p>◾ 删除“第899条款”。该条款针对实施“歧视性税收政策”的国家的政府、企业、个人、主权财富基金、养老基金及私人信托等征收惩罚性税收。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6306811069b16b21a4d21824dab5717b\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"588\"/></p><p>二、财政前景显著恶化</p><p>“大美丽法案”将使得美国财政前景显著恶化，2017年减税法案永久化是财政赤字恶化的主要来源。根据智库Tax Foundation的测算，减税永久化不仅将使得美国政府税收收入下降，而且需要更多举债满足财政支出需求，利息支出也相应增加。未来10年美国财政赤字增加4.6~5.4万亿美元，美国财政赤字率将突破10%，远高于目前国会预算办公室(CBO)减税法案不延期情景下的5%~6%。6月4日CBO最新分析显示，减税法案永久化将使得未来10年美国财政赤字增加2.4万亿美元，财政赤字率将在2026财年攀升至7%以上。同时未来10年美国政府杠杆率将较减税不延期的117%提高至129%，若付息成本保持4.5%高位，则杠杆率进一步升至133%。2026年财年(今年10月开始)财政赤字立即显著恶化。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16d9170be5a1d27c513f7cf599a0f9cf\" tg-width=\"833\" tg-height=\"428\"/></p><p><br/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9911f9a5df5df6a6e2c14e65a7f16f71\" tg-width=\"833\" tg-height=\"427\"/></p><p>三、市场影响</p><p>短期而言，美国财政赤字扩张有助于托底经济，提高经济软着陆概率。这符合我们此前的判断，库存周期需求指标在经历了近半年的迅速走弱后，今年下半年或进入相对稳定期甚至可能出现反弹。高频小周期的上行修复也很可能同步展开。</p><p>对于美债收益率而言，美国经济软着陆和再通胀奠定了美债收益率居高难下的基调，关税威胁卷土重来、债务上限提高后供给冲击等因素则显著增加了收益率的上行风险。从历史上看，当债务上限单次提高超过1万亿美元时，未来6个月美债收益率均倾向于上行。此次提高5万亿美元，对于美债收益率将有较强的推升作用。预计第三季度美债10Y收益率有再度冲击5%的可能。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95173d49ba10631b80634dfd59b83fa0\" tg-width=\"798\" tg-height=\"430\"/></p><p><br/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f571df2b58ac1d94686212bcf84877a1\" tg-width=\"795\" tg-height=\"430\"/></p><p>对于黄金而言，美国财政前景恶化、美元信用被侵蚀仍是核心交易逻辑。历史上，在财政赤字恶化的年份，金价大概率录得上涨。“大美丽法案”使得美国中长期财政前景恶化，巩固了黄金牛市的基本盘。短期而言，债务上限大幅提高的背景下，金价回调空间有限(通常不超过10%)，中长期仍趋于上涨。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/786710629883bada58a7f47ce77c62b7\" tg-width=\"811\" tg-height=\"449\"/></p><p><br/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f1cea48d4fb83fb83472cc610a64fed\" tg-width=\"807\" tg-height=\"425\"/></p><p>对于美元指数而言，美国经济软着陆概率提高和降息预期收敛帮助减缓短期跌势，随着经济数据短期改善，美元指数已经出现低估信号。不过中长期而言，财政赤字对于美元更多是利空影响。海外投资者对于美国债务可持续的质疑损害美元信用，本轮“去美元化”仍在延续，美元指数长期中枢水平下移。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54ff5ff968c50fbc12694aac7af03fba\" tg-width=\"834\" tg-height=\"424\"/></p><p><br/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a124178d1431f0f057d3bb6f24e8c073\" tg-width=\"764\" tg-height=\"741\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>兴业研究：美国“大美丽法案”有何影响？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n兴业研究：美国“大美丽法案”有何影响？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-07-05 10:50 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1314310.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国时间7月3日，“大美丽法案”(One Big Beautiful Bill)在美国众议院以218-214的微弱优势涉险过关并提交特朗普。共和党人达成了在7月4日美国“独立日”前通过法案的既定目标。该法案自推出以来便争议不断，其包含哪些主要内容，又将产生怎样的市场影响?总结来看，“大美丽法案”核心内容包括：2017年减税永久化、大幅削减医疗补助支出、一次性提高债务上限5万亿美元、取消对新能源汽车...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1314310.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a333e60f09b7b3e09b914d4d15b1a58","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1314310.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2549986314","content_text":"美国时间7月3日，“大美丽法案”(One Big Beautiful Bill)在美国众议院以218-214的微弱优势涉险过关并提交特朗普。共和党人达成了在7月4日美国“独立日”前通过法案的既定目标。该法案自推出以来便争议不断，其包含哪些主要内容，又将产生怎样的市场影响?总结来看，“大美丽法案”核心内容包括：2017年减税永久化、大幅削减医疗补助支出、一次性提高债务上限5万亿美元、取消对新能源汽车的税收减免等。最终版法案删除了争议性的“第899条款”，该条款针对实施“歧视性税收政策”的国家的政府、企业、个人、主权财富基金、养老基金及私人信托等征收惩罚性税收。“大美丽法案”将使得美国财政前景显著恶化，2017年减税法案永久化是财政赤字恶化的主要来源。2026年财年(今年10月开始)财政赤字立即显著恶化，赤字率将由6%攀升至7%~7.5%。短期而言，美国财政赤字扩张有助于托底经济，提高经济软着陆概率。债务上限单次提高5万亿美元利空美债、利多黄金，第三季度10Y收益率有冲击5%的可能，金价在完成此轮调整后中长期仍趋于上涨，回调空间有限(通常不超过10%)。美元指数短期跌势放缓，但“去美元化”仍在延续，美元指数长期中枢水平下移。该法案主要内容及市场影响如下：一、法案主要内容“大美丽法案”着眼于减税和提高债务上限，部分削减了医疗补助、新能源补贴等政府开支，具体包括：◾ 2017年减税永久化。特朗普在上一个任期推出的2017年减税法案本应在今年到期，此次通过立法将该减税法案条款部分永久化、部分延期(详见下表)，并进一步提高了税收减免上限。◾ 大幅削减医疗补助(Medicaid)支出。美国政府的医疗补助参保人数约为7100万人。最新立法进一步严格要求医疗补助的适用标准，19至64岁的医疗补助申请者必须满足每个月工作至少80个小时，否则将不予补助。有需要抚养的子女、满足特殊医疗条件要求等可以成为豁免条件。美国国会预算办公室预计最新的立法将削减1万亿美元医疗补助开支。◾ 一次性提高债务上限5万亿美元。◾ 取消对新能源汽车的税收减免。◾ 降低联邦学生贷款申请上限。◾对于外部、自由职业者等符合要求的收入，最高享受23%的减税。◾ 删除“第899条款”。该条款针对实施“歧视性税收政策”的国家的政府、企业、个人、主权财富基金、养老基金及私人信托等征收惩罚性税收。二、财政前景显著恶化“大美丽法案”将使得美国财政前景显著恶化，2017年减税法案永久化是财政赤字恶化的主要来源。根据智库Tax Foundation的测算，减税永久化不仅将使得美国政府税收收入下降，而且需要更多举债满足财政支出需求，利息支出也相应增加。未来10年美国财政赤字增加4.6~5.4万亿美元，美国财政赤字率将突破10%，远高于目前国会预算办公室(CBO)减税法案不延期情景下的5%~6%。6月4日CBO最新分析显示，减税法案永久化将使得未来10年美国财政赤字增加2.4万亿美元，财政赤字率将在2026财年攀升至7%以上。同时未来10年美国政府杠杆率将较减税不延期的117%提高至129%，若付息成本保持4.5%高位，则杠杆率进一步升至133%。2026年财年(今年10月开始)财政赤字立即显著恶化。三、市场影响短期而言，美国财政赤字扩张有助于托底经济，提高经济软着陆概率。这符合我们此前的判断，库存周期需求指标在经历了近半年的迅速走弱后，今年下半年或进入相对稳定期甚至可能出现反弹。高频小周期的上行修复也很可能同步展开。对于美债收益率而言，美国经济软着陆和再通胀奠定了美债收益率居高难下的基调，关税威胁卷土重来、债务上限提高后供给冲击等因素则显著增加了收益率的上行风险。从历史上看，当债务上限单次提高超过1万亿美元时，未来6个月美债收益率均倾向于上行。此次提高5万亿美元，对于美债收益率将有较强的推升作用。预计第三季度美债10Y收益率有再度冲击5%的可能。对于黄金而言，美国财政前景恶化、美元信用被侵蚀仍是核心交易逻辑。历史上，在财政赤字恶化的年份，金价大概率录得上涨。“大美丽法案”使得美国中长期财政前景恶化，巩固了黄金牛市的基本盘。短期而言，债务上限大幅提高的背景下，金价回调空间有限(通常不超过10%)，中长期仍趋于上涨。对于美元指数而言，美国经济软着陆概率提高和降息预期收敛帮助减缓短期跌势，随着经济数据短期改善，美元指数已经出现低估信号。不过中长期而言，财政赤字对于美元更多是利空影响。海外投资者对于美国债务可持续的质疑损害美元信用，本轮“去美元化”仍在延续，美元指数长期中枢水平下移。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":21,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":452734980505912,"gmtCreate":1751556824031,"gmtModify":1751562285447,"author":{"id":"3540692585190396","authorId":"3540692585190396","name":"赛车猫","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fec6c99c8a6e8353aeaeca380c0894c","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3540692585190396","authorIdStr":"3540692585190396"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了1手<a 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