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隔壁邻居好老刘

隔壁邻居好老刘

在股市里都死光了。我也不会死

IP属地：辽宁

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27粉丝

6主题

0勋章

隔壁邻居好老刘

05-01

[财迷]

消息称特斯拉上周在国内新注册1.03万辆，近七成是焕新Model Y

隔壁邻居好老刘

01-27

如果特斯拉手机跟电车联动。后期可待

隔壁邻居好老刘

01-11

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 中国消费者还是很看好特斯拉的。毕竟是头部企业。只要中美贸易战能谈判特斯拉肯定会大涨

隔壁邻居好老刘

2024-12-26

希望S3赛季不要开启，大家各自管好自己家的事。

隔壁邻居好老刘

2024-11-07

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 下行

隔壁邻居好老刘

2024-10-23

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 马斯克先生是否考虑一下手机业务？

隔壁邻居好老刘

2024-10-22

告诉他你亏了多少。怎么熬过来的

隔壁邻居好老刘

2024-10-21

$拼多多(PDD)$ 杨笠在这么个人设下仍然毅力不倒。可见背后的资本之雄厚。人脉之宽广。一群被消费人群说三道四的累不累

隔壁邻居好老刘

2024-10-21

$拼多多(PDD)$ 这就是拼多多现在的情况。有问题都是机器人回复。根本不看问题。就按关键词搜索回复。电话也没有人工沟通的渠道。

隔壁邻居好老刘

2024-10-01

都没钱了。别做梦了

隔壁邻居好老刘

2024-09-21

中国开启大基建抢速模式。中国内地四大运河。国外两大运河。这得需要多少水泥钢筋啊。水泥可以就地解决。但钢筋只能从中国出口。

隔壁邻居好老刘

2024-08-07

只要特斯拉在汽车安全上做到比其他车企的好。那么它就不愁卖

特斯拉摊上大麻烦了

隔壁邻居好老刘

2024-07-24

😂😂😂😂

隔壁邻居好老刘

2024-07-19

现在的上扬不健康。我看向下回调

隔壁邻居好老刘

2024-06-14

Replying to @晒太阳的皮皮猫:你这是故事吧明灯啊//@晒太阳的皮皮猫:上次就是听信特斯拉是ai驾驶最后上车的机会，买入接近200，在167附近割肉，最后那一轮降到140多附近止跌。血的教训。讲故事漂亮不如来点实在的。

隔壁邻居好老刘

2024-06-11

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 只要先生从新回归特斯拉管理层，特斯拉股价就会飙升

隔壁邻居好老刘

2024-05-10

特斯拉销售的是认知理念。车辆只是一个载体而已。无人驾驶出租车。中国中央政府已经点头了。

抱歉，原内容已删除

隔壁邻居好老刘

2024-05-07

$鞍钢股份(000898)$ 你可别学特斯拉。你跳一个板，国资委都得疯了

隔壁邻居好老刘

2024-04-29

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 特斯拉准备跳涨模式

隔壁邻居好老刘

2024-04-26

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 最终博弈。先生赢了。拿到授权书，

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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21:09","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"消息称特斯拉上周在国内新注册1.03万辆，近七成是焕新Model Y","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2531551180","media":"TechWeb","summary":"较此前一周的6,780辆增长51%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>4月30日消息，有机构的数据显示，在上周，也就是4月21日到27日的那一周，在国内市场新注册的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>电动汽车，较此前一周有大幅增加，其中大部分是焕新版Model Y。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea4df82c56115a080a273df6832af5a9\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"341\"/></p><p>具体而言，机构的数据是显示上周在国内市场新注册的特斯拉电动汽车共有 10,300辆，较此前一周的6,780辆增长51%，但不及去年同期，同比下滑了30.5%。</p><p>在4月份的第四周注册1.03万辆后，4月份在国内市场新注册的特斯拉电动汽车，也就超过了2.6万辆。</p><p>外媒援引机构的数据报道称，在截至4月6日的那一周，国内市场新注册的特斯拉电动汽车为3600辆，截至13日那一周是5400辆，截至20日的那一周为6780辆。</p><p>而机构的数据还显示，在上周国内市场新注册的特斯拉电动汽车中，7100辆是焕新Model Y，较此前一周增长77.5%。</p><p>上周特斯拉焕新Model Y在国内市场新注册超过7000辆，占到特斯拉全部注册量的近七成，也就意味着这一新款特斯拉电动汽车，在国内市场有可观的需求。（海蓝）</p></body></html>","source":"Techweb","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n消息称特斯拉上周在国内新注册1.03万辆，近七成是焕新Model Y\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-04-30 21:09 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a 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15:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉摊上大麻烦了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2457712899","media":"金角财经","summary":"在中国市场，华为智驾显然是特斯拉FSD最大的竞争对手。","content":"<p>原创首发 | 金角财经（ID: F-Jinjiao)</p><p>作者 | Chong Lei,CFA</p><p></p><p>马斯克又到了“水逆期”。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>最新发布的二季度财报显示，营业利润和净利润均同比大幅下滑，其中净利润同比跌幅达到45%。</p><p>被寄予厚望的无人出租车（Robotaxi）再度跳票，引发股价暴跌；准备走向全球的FSD(Full Self Driving，完全自动驾驶)收到坏消息，<strong>最新调查显示FSD模式在美国导致撞人致死。</strong></p><p>不过马斯克依然信心十足，“如果你相信我们会实现自动驾驶，就买特斯拉股票，如果不相信那就卖掉吧。”</p><p><strong>实际上是没有退路可言。被中国车企拖入价格战，特斯拉“卷则利润暴跌，不卷则丧失份额”，而在美国超过半数车主重新投入燃油车怀抱，“遥遥领先”的自动驾驶技术，是马斯克翻盘的最后筹码。</strong></p><p>只不过，自动驾驶技术需要天文数字的投入。此前马斯克就表示，特斯拉计划年内向人工<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>基础设施和算力投资100亿美元。</p><p>百亿美元级别的投资，与特斯拉冰冷的业绩形成巨大落差，马斯克似乎又要一边咀嚼玻璃,一边凝视深渊。</p><p>这一次，无人驾驶的梦想能否照进现实，不仅决定特斯拉能否王者归来，而且也将成为全球新能源车行业未来走向的关键。</p><p></p><p><strong>两难困局</strong></p><p>如果只看能源业务，特斯拉的二季度财报相当亮眼。</p><p>能源集成和储能业务方面，当季营收同比增长100%至30.14亿美元。特斯拉称，该季度储能产品装机量达到9.4吉瓦时，环比增长约132%，<strong>2024年能源业务营收增长速度会超过汽车业务。</strong></p><p>但最重要的业务——汽车，则令人心灰意冷。</p><p>特斯拉二季度实现营收255亿美元，同比增长2%。在扣除6亿美元重组和其他费用后，营业利润为16.05亿美元，净利润为14.78亿美元。这两项数据均同比大幅下滑，其中净利润同比跌幅达45%。</p><p>当季，特斯拉全球共交付汽车44.4万辆，环比增长14.8%，同比下跌4.8%。尽管降幅从一季度的8.5%收窄至4.8%，也好于资本市场预期，但连续下滑反映出这个全球电动车龙头的困境。</p><p>目前，全球新能源汽车市场主要包括中国、欧洲和北美，三地新能源汽车销量在2023年的全球占比高达95%。</p><p>特斯拉在这三个主要市场都有布局，但欧美新能源汽车销量增长遇到阶段性瓶颈，虽然保持优势地位，但特斯拉在欧美短期内恐怕也难以取得更多突破。</p><p>至于新能源汽车最大市场中国，<strong>特斯拉又面临众多快速追赶者。</strong>例如，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>纯电动汽车销量曾在2023年第四季度超越特斯拉。</p><p>全国乘用车市场信息联席会数据显示，2024年6月，特斯拉中国交付汽车达7.1万辆，国内销量为5.9万辆，其余汽车用于出口。特斯拉在中国的销量连续两个月环比增长，但同比仍有明显下滑。</p><p>同样在6月份，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>和华为鸿蒙智行销量分别为4.7万和4.6万辆，正逐步接近特斯拉国内销量规模。当然，这两家企业主打增程式混动车型。</p><p>而在纯电动汽车领域，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZK\">极氪</a>6月的销量突破2万辆大关，蔚来汽车销量也连续两个月超过2万辆，让市场看到国内新势力对特斯拉份额的蚕食。</p><p>此外，中国车企普遍制定了较高的全年销量目标，<strong>意味着下半年可能会推出更多新产品并进一步降价。</strong></p><p>例如，7月1日，起售价原本为20万元的极氪X车型发布改款，售价降至17.9万元。同一天，特斯拉中国宣布推出五年免息购车优惠措施。</p><p>这是特斯拉被逼继续打价格战的缩影。</p><p>过去一段时间，为了刺激销量，特斯拉在中国和美国都提供了折扣和其他激励措施。</p><p><strong>但优惠措施明显拖累了特斯拉的盈利能力。</strong>二季度，特斯拉汽车业务营收同比下滑7%至198.78亿美元，其调整后的利润率也从2023年第二季度的18.7%降至14.4%。</p><p>长期缺少令市场惊喜的新车型，电动皮卡车型Cybertruck的产量还在艰难爬坡，新平台车型要到2025年才能推出，导致特斯拉似乎陷入了“不卷则丧失市场份额、卷则净利润暴跌”的两难困局。</p><p>自然而然，押注自动驾驶技术，成为特斯拉扭转局面、王者归来的关键。</p><p></p><p><strong>一再拖延</strong></p><p>无人出租车（Robotaxi）是特斯拉备受瞩目的增长引擎，但在造车进度上并不顺利，甚至引发股价暴跌。</p><p>7月11日，据相关媒体报道称，为了给项目团队安排足够时间制造更多原型车，特斯拉可能会推迟两个月再发布Robotaxi。当天，特斯拉股价大跌8.44%。</p><p>在最近的业绩电话会上，马斯克重点强调了自动驾驶前景及价值。他还披露，Robotaxi将在10月10日发布，期待能在2025年结束前启动运营。</p><p>两个星期前，他曾称，Robotaxi推迟发布是因为他要求对车辆前部进行一些重要调整，车辆同时会增加一些新的功能。</p><p>目前，特斯拉还没有披露关于Robotaxi产品配置和形态的具体信息。马斯克此前称，特斯拉计划拥有并运营一个自己的车队，特斯拉车主可以自愿随时加入或退出。</p><p>“你可以将这个车队的运营模式想象成<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBER\">优步</a>（Uber）和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABNB\">爱彼迎</a>（Airbnb）的结合。”马斯克说。特斯拉还计划在自有App中加入网约车功能。</p><p><strong>愿景很美好，但资本市场对特斯拉Robotaxi的计划则比较谨慎。</strong></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>称，自动驾驶技术受到法律、监管、道德伦理等一系列无法预估的因素影响，它的市场普及度变化可能是一条非常极端的曲线，行业距离拐点还有较远距离。</p><p>该机构预计，2026年特斯拉运营的Robotaxi车队规模为1000辆，到2030年可以达到15.75万辆，2035年增至170万辆。</p><p>值得注意的是，特斯拉的Robotaxi，也在业内再度引发技术路线争论。</p><p>关于如何实现自动驾驶，行业里一直存在两条主要路线：</p><p><strong>从<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>拆分出来的Waymo主张一步到位，</strong>在有限区域内先行落地完全自动驾驶的Robotaxi服务，通过在特定环境中实现高度自动化，确保技术的可靠性和安全性后，再逐步扩大服务范围。</p><p><strong>特斯拉则坚持逐步迭代，</strong>从辅助驾驶功能入手，将其系统首先在量产车型上应用，并通过不断的软件更新和迭代逐步提升自动驾驶能力。</p><p>前者在较早时期更受资本市场追捧，但由于受到运营场景限制，车辆规模无法与量产车型相比，难以获得罕见场景等含金量高的数据推动系统进步。此外，该路线至今未完成商业闭环，还没有实现盈利。</p><p>上述痛点，使Waymo代表的一步到位路线在近年越发不得意，曾经追随Waymo的公司要么选择出售相关业务，要么转向开发辅助自动驾驶系统。</p><p>不过，有意思的是，<strong>在国内更像Waymo路线的萝卜快跑，已在中国超11城运行，将Waymo远远抛在身后，而且预计2025年就可以实现盈利。</strong></p><p>这对特斯拉而言，不是好消息。</p><p></p><p><strong>FSD走向全球</strong></p><p>Robotaxi经历波折的同时，特斯拉的终极王牌FSD，却有望在2024年内从北美走向全球。</p><p>FSD属于辅助自动驾驶系统，特斯拉称其为“有监督的自动驾驶”，目前还在不断升级迭代。马斯克在业绩会上透露，<strong>待FSD新版本推出后，特斯拉向中国、欧洲以及其他地区监管部门提出申请，预计2024年底前能够获得批准。</strong></p><p>这意味着，FSD距离进入中国的时间越来越近了。</p><p>市场不乏声音认为，这是一个历史性时刻，<strong>特斯拉FSD或Robotaxi进入中国，影响堪比当年特斯拉在华本地生产。</strong></p><p>这同样也会带来鲶鱼效应，加速国内自动驾驶技术的提升。</p><p>对于未来智驾的竞争格局，多名从业人士认为，自动驾驶技术业务模式接近手机操作系统，未来市场上不会有太多家。当前全球主要手机操作系统分别是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>iOS、谷歌安卓和华为鸿蒙。</p><p>在中国市场，华为智驾显然是特斯拉FSD最大的竞争对手。前段时间，余承东在谈及特斯拉FSD时表示，华为智驾即使是不带激光雷达的版本也比特斯拉FSD更好，带激光雷达的性能更佳。</p><p>“特斯拉的车辆数量多，数据多，FSD做的不错。我们去美国、加拿大等也做测试对比，我们的体验略优一些。他们没用激光雷达，我们用了，弥补了感知能力，在中国我们比他们略优一些。”对于特斯拉FSD入华，余承东表示乐意竞争，竞争之后才能看到谁做得更好。</p><p>7月29日，余承东透露，华为将在8月上市华为高阶智能驾驶系统ADS 3.0版本，问界M7、M9将在9月陆续升级ADS 3.0版本。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601688\">华泰证券</a>研报称，ADS 3.0基于GOD（通用障碍物检测）网络实现了从简单的“识别障碍物”到深度的“理解驾驶场景”的进步。</p><p>值得注意的是，为保持竞争优势，特斯拉的投入其实也异常庞大。马斯克公开表示过，2024年特斯拉计划向人工智能基础设施和算力投资100亿美元，其他公司的投资强度如果达不到这一水平，或者资金利用效率不高，就无法竞争。</p><p>不过，特斯拉FSD最大的竞争对手或许不是中国车企，而是安全考验。当地时间7月31日，美国华盛顿州当局周二表示，已确定今年4月在西雅图附近撞死一名摩托车手的特斯拉汽车，<strong>在事故发生时正运行FSD模式。</strong></p><p>美国投资机构Truist Securities的分析师威廉·斯坦恩称，自己亲自测试了特斯拉汽车的全自动驾驶系统，但险些发生车祸。他在给投资者的一份报告中介绍说，当前面的车尚未完成右转时，他所驾驶的特斯拉Model Y加速通过十字路口，如果没有他的干预，肯定会发生一场车祸，认为斯拉FSD在实际道路测试中存在的严重安全隐患。</p><p>特斯拉CEO马斯克在最近的财报电话会议上，也承认自己过去的FSD的预测“过于乐观”。他表示，预计到今年年底，FSD系统将能够在无人监督的情况下运行。</p><p>而坏消息还在延续。Edmunds最新调查数据显示，2024年美国超半数特斯拉车主转投燃油车怀抱，仅有32%的车主继续选择纯电动车型。</p><p>具体来看，51%的特斯拉车主转向了传统燃油车，10%选择了混合动力车型，6%选择了插电式混合动力车型。并且，有越来越多的买家正在用其他传统汽车制造商的电动汽车取代特斯拉。</p><p>短期内，恐怕马斯克还是要把精力放在渡过低谷上，否则失色的财务表现很可能会拖累在自动驾驶上的雄心壮志。</p><p>参考资料：</p><p>财新《特斯拉二季度净利润同比下跌45% 将在10月10日发布Robotaxi》</p><p>财新《特斯拉Robotaxi或推迟发布 股价一度大跌》</p><p></p><p><strong>出品人:</strong> 卢桦</p><p><strong>主编:</strong> 袁明武 <strong>责编:</strong> 角爷</p><p><strong>版式:</strong> 伊妍</p>","source":"ifeng_tech","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉摊上大麻烦了</title>\n<style 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Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2024_32/44DE7E275F772FDE1A15320FD74A671115E75CEA_size90_w975_h549.jpg","relate_stocks":{"LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM 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Driving，完全自动驾驶)收到坏消息，最新调查显示FSD模式在美国导致撞人致死。不过马斯克依然信心十足，“如果你相信我们会实现自动驾驶，就买特斯拉股票，如果不相信那就卖掉吧。”实际上是没有退路可言。被中国车企拖入价格战，特斯拉“卷则利润暴跌，不卷则丧失份额”，而在美国超过半数车主重新投入燃油车怀抱，“遥遥领先”的自动驾驶技术，是马斯克翻盘的最后筹码。只不过，自动驾驶技术需要天文数字的投入。此前马斯克就表示，特斯拉计划年内向人工智能基础设施和算力投资100亿美元。百亿美元级别的投资，与特斯拉冰冷的业绩形成巨大落差，马斯克似乎又要一边咀嚼玻璃,一边凝视深渊。这一次，无人驾驶的梦想能否照进现实，不仅决定特斯拉能否王者归来，而且也将成为全球新能源车行业未来走向的关键。两难困局如果只看能源业务，特斯拉的二季度财报相当亮眼。能源集成和储能业务方面，当季营收同比增长100%至30.14亿美元。特斯拉称，该季度储能产品装机量达到9.4吉瓦时，环比增长约132%，2024年能源业务营收增长速度会超过汽车业务。但最重要的业务——汽车，则令人心灰意冷。特斯拉二季度实现营收255亿美元，同比增长2%。在扣除6亿美元重组和其他费用后，营业利润为16.05亿美元，净利润为14.78亿美元。这两项数据均同比大幅下滑，其中净利润同比跌幅达45%。当季，特斯拉全球共交付汽车44.4万辆，环比增长14.8%，同比下跌4.8%。尽管降幅从一季度的8.5%收窄至4.8%，也好于资本市场预期，但连续下滑反映出这个全球电动车龙头的困境。目前，全球新能源汽车市场主要包括中国、欧洲和北美，三地新能源汽车销量在2023年的全球占比高达95%。特斯拉在这三个主要市场都有布局，但欧美新能源汽车销量增长遇到阶段性瓶颈，虽然保持优势地位，但特斯拉在欧美短期内恐怕也难以取得更多突破。至于新能源汽车最大市场中国，特斯拉又面临众多快速追赶者。例如，比亚迪纯电动汽车销量曾在2023年第四季度超越特斯拉。全国乘用车市场信息联席会数据显示，2024年6月，特斯拉中国交付汽车达7.1万辆，国内销量为5.9万辆，其余汽车用于出口。特斯拉在中国的销量连续两个月环比增长，但同比仍有明显下滑。同样在6月份，理想汽车和华为鸿蒙智行销量分别为4.7万和4.6万辆，正逐步接近特斯拉国内销量规模。当然，这两家企业主打增程式混动车型。而在纯电动汽车领域，极氪6月的销量突破2万辆大关，蔚来汽车销量也连续两个月超过2万辆，让市场看到国内新势力对特斯拉份额的蚕食。此外，中国车企普遍制定了较高的全年销量目标，意味着下半年可能会推出更多新产品并进一步降价。例如，7月1日，起售价原本为20万元的极氪X车型发布改款，售价降至17.9万元。同一天，特斯拉中国宣布推出五年免息购车优惠措施。这是特斯拉被逼继续打价格战的缩影。过去一段时间，为了刺激销量，特斯拉在中国和美国都提供了折扣和其他激励措施。但优惠措施明显拖累了特斯拉的盈利能力。二季度，特斯拉汽车业务营收同比下滑7%至198.78亿美元，其调整后的利润率也从2023年第二季度的18.7%降至14.4%。长期缺少令市场惊喜的新车型，电动皮卡车型Cybertruck的产量还在艰难爬坡，新平台车型要到2025年才能推出，导致特斯拉似乎陷入了“不卷则丧失市场份额、卷则净利润暴跌”的两难困局。自然而然，押注自动驾驶技术，成为特斯拉扭转局面、王者归来的关键。一再拖延无人出租车（Robotaxi）是特斯拉备受瞩目的增长引擎，但在造车进度上并不顺利，甚至引发股价暴跌。7月11日，据相关媒体报道称，为了给项目团队安排足够时间制造更多原型车，特斯拉可能会推迟两个月再发布Robotaxi。当天，特斯拉股价大跌8.44%。在最近的业绩电话会上，马斯克重点强调了自动驾驶前景及价值。他还披露，Robotaxi将在10月10日发布，期待能在2025年结束前启动运营。两个星期前，他曾称，Robotaxi推迟发布是因为他要求对车辆前部进行一些重要调整，车辆同时会增加一些新的功能。目前，特斯拉还没有披露关于Robotaxi产品配置和形态的具体信息。马斯克此前称，特斯拉计划拥有并运营一个自己的车队，特斯拉车主可以自愿随时加入或退出。“你可以将这个车队的运营模式想象成优步（Uber）和爱彼迎（Airbnb）的结合。”马斯克说。特斯拉还计划在自有App中加入网约车功能。愿景很美好，但资本市场对特斯拉Robotaxi的计划则比较谨慎。摩根士丹利称，自动驾驶技术受到法律、监管、道德伦理等一系列无法预估的因素影响，它的市场普及度变化可能是一条非常极端的曲线，行业距离拐点还有较远距离。该机构预计，2026年特斯拉运营的Robotaxi车队规模为1000辆，到2030年可以达到15.75万辆，2035年增至170万辆。值得注意的是，特斯拉的Robotaxi，也在业内再度引发技术路线争论。关于如何实现自动驾驶，行业里一直存在两条主要路线：从谷歌拆分出来的Waymo主张一步到位，在有限区域内先行落地完全自动驾驶的Robotaxi服务，通过在特定环境中实现高度自动化，确保技术的可靠性和安全性后，再逐步扩大服务范围。特斯拉则坚持逐步迭代，从辅助驾驶功能入手，将其系统首先在量产车型上应用，并通过不断的软件更新和迭代逐步提升自动驾驶能力。前者在较早时期更受资本市场追捧，但由于受到运营场景限制，车辆规模无法与量产车型相比，难以获得罕见场景等含金量高的数据推动系统进步。此外，该路线至今未完成商业闭环，还没有实现盈利。上述痛点，使Waymo代表的一步到位路线在近年越发不得意，曾经追随Waymo的公司要么选择出售相关业务，要么转向开发辅助自动驾驶系统。不过，有意思的是，在国内更像Waymo路线的萝卜快跑，已在中国超11城运行，将Waymo远远抛在身后，而且预计2025年就可以实现盈利。这对特斯拉而言，不是好消息。FSD走向全球Robotaxi经历波折的同时，特斯拉的终极王牌FSD，却有望在2024年内从北美走向全球。FSD属于辅助自动驾驶系统，特斯拉称其为“有监督的自动驾驶”，目前还在不断升级迭代。马斯克在业绩会上透露，待FSD新版本推出后，特斯拉向中国、欧洲以及其他地区监管部门提出申请，预计2024年底前能够获得批准。这意味着，FSD距离进入中国的时间越来越近了。市场不乏声音认为，这是一个历史性时刻，特斯拉FSD或Robotaxi进入中国，影响堪比当年特斯拉在华本地生产。这同样也会带来鲶鱼效应，加速国内自动驾驶技术的提升。对于未来智驾的竞争格局，多名从业人士认为，自动驾驶技术业务模式接近手机操作系统，未来市场上不会有太多家。当前全球主要手机操作系统分别是苹果iOS、谷歌安卓和华为鸿蒙。在中国市场，华为智驾显然是特斯拉FSD最大的竞争对手。前段时间，余承东在谈及特斯拉FSD时表示，华为智驾即使是不带激光雷达的版本也比特斯拉FSD更好，带激光雷达的性能更佳。“特斯拉的车辆数量多，数据多，FSD做的不错。我们去美国、加拿大等也做测试对比，我们的体验略优一些。他们没用激光雷达，我们用了，弥补了感知能力，在中国我们比他们略优一些。”对于特斯拉FSD入华，余承东表示乐意竞争，竞争之后才能看到谁做得更好。7月29日，余承东透露，华为将在8月上市华为高阶智能驾驶系统ADS 3.0版本，问界M7、M9将在9月陆续升级ADS 3.0版本。华泰证券研报称，ADS 3.0基于GOD（通用障碍物检测）网络实现了从简单的“识别障碍物”到深度的“理解驾驶场景”的进步。值得注意的是，为保持竞争优势，特斯拉的投入其实也异常庞大。马斯克公开表示过，2024年特斯拉计划向人工智能基础设施和算力投资100亿美元，其他公司的投资强度如果达不到这一水平，或者资金利用效率不高，就无法竞争。不过，特斯拉FSD最大的竞争对手或许不是中国车企，而是安全考验。当地时间7月31日，美国华盛顿州当局周二表示，已确定今年4月在西雅图附近撞死一名摩托车手的特斯拉汽车，在事故发生时正运行FSD模式。美国投资机构Truist Securities的分析师威廉·斯坦恩称，自己亲自测试了特斯拉汽车的全自动驾驶系统，但险些发生车祸。他在给投资者的一份报告中介绍说，当前面的车尚未完成右转时，他所驾驶的特斯拉Model Y加速通过十字路口，如果没有他的干预，肯定会发生一场车祸，认为斯拉FSD在实际道路测试中存在的严重安全隐患。特斯拉CEO马斯克在最近的财报电话会议上，也承认自己过去的FSD的预测“过于乐观”。他表示，预计到今年年底，FSD系统将能够在无人监督的情况下运行。而坏消息还在延续。Edmunds最新调查数据显示，2024年美国超半数特斯拉车主转投燃油车怀抱，仅有32%的车主继续选择纯电动车型。具体来看，51%的特斯拉车主转向了传统燃油车，10%选择了混合动力车型，6%选择了插电式混合动力车型。并且，有越来越多的买家正在用其他传统汽车制造商的电动汽车取代特斯拉。短期内，恐怕马斯克还是要把精力放在渡过低谷上，否则失色的财务表现很可能会拖累在自动驾驶上的雄心壮志。参考资料：财新《特斯拉二季度净利润同比下跌45% 将在10月10日发布Robotaxi》财新《特斯拉Robotaxi或推迟发布 股价一度大跌》出品人: 卢桦主编: 袁明武 责编: 角爷版式: 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