厚积薄发886的个人主页 - 老虎社区

厚积薄发886

厚积薄发886

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厚积薄发886

06-09

您说大A的稳定币概念是什么呢？中银？

厚积薄发886

06-09

对的，这次应该会高一点

厚积薄发886

03-20

这不是都认购完了吗？

厚积薄发886

2022-06-07

$飞鱼科技(01022)$请问哪位大侠知道为什么大涨？后面还会涨吗？$特斯拉(TSLA)$$台积电(TSM)$

厚积薄发886

2021-06-26

$Rolls Royce Holdings plc(RYCEY)$这个屎货就是个织布机

厚积薄发886

2021-06-21

$RLX科技(RLX)$从浮亏到深套，欲哭无泪

厚积薄发886

2021-06-18

$爱回收(RERE)$希望能中，穷的港股都打不了，就看你的了[龇牙]

厚积薄发886

2021-06-15

$久泰邦达能源(02798)$从浮盈到亏损，只需一周的时间，这是在收集票吗？

厚积薄发886

2021-05-28

$中原建业(09982)$中了，不知道咋样，保佑[爱心]

厚积薄发886

2021-05-26

$Rolls Royce Holdings plc(RYCEY)$死样

厚积薄发886

2021-05-26

$新氧(SY)$什么玩意儿，浪费了行情

厚积薄发886

2021-05-07

$水滴(WDH)$小中

厚积薄发886

2021-04-28

$兆科眼科-B(06622)$感谢没中

厚积薄发886

2021-04-06

亏了好多钱，现在叫投资者教育

张坤年报中的烦恼，也是基金大时代的挑战

厚积薄发886

2021-01-07

$哈莫尼黄金(HMY)$这个破股就是不涨，奇了$巴里克黄金(GOLD)$

厚积薄发886

2020-12-26

要是@gugu能在被投票人里面，也一定能进前十，因为她有独到的分析，也免费，也会回答问题，下次这个投票名单确定前是不是应该征求一下用户意见?

@小虎活动:【颁奖】2020老虎社区年度人物&新锐人物揭晓

厚积薄发886

2020-11-20

$小牛电动(NIU)$问一下懂的朋友，小牛涨的这么厉害，为什么我sell put21年3月份35元的期权动也不动? $蔚来(NIO)$$特斯拉(TSLA)$

厚积薄发886

2020-11-05

$Smith And Wesson Brands Inc(SWBI)$怎么办? 19的本，是应该补仓还是应该卖？$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$ $道琼斯指数主连(YMmain)$

厚积薄发886

2020-10-15

隐隐有种咬牙切齿的感觉

抱歉，原内容已删除

厚积薄发886

2020-10-08

股市跌了想控制仓位保留资金，涨了又觉得后悔，认为还能下来，不敢追高，这样可以永远不操作，只有一个办法，解套了从0开始，换到真正有价值的公司

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06622\">$兆科眼科-B(06622)$</a>感谢没中","text":"$兆科眼科-B(06622)$感谢没中","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/100275871","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2881,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":343150623,"gmtCreate":1617693975362,"gmtModify":1617693975362,"author":{"id":"3545005267304010","authorId":"3545005267304010","name":"厚积薄发886","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6bf7e465a84311063b1dd9955d6cd52","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3545005267304010","authorIdStr":"3545005267304010"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"亏了好多钱，现在叫投资者教育","listText":"亏了好多钱，现在叫投资者教育","text":"亏了好多钱，现在叫投资者教育","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343150623","repostId":"1170248446","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170248446","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"有视角的商业资讯交流平台","home_visible":1,"media_name":"虎嗅APP","id":"101","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98669fe7974e42f3976b3db47528792d"},"pubTimestamp":1617683724,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1170248446?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-06 12:35","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"张坤年报中的烦恼，也是基金大时代的挑战","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170248446","media":"虎嗅APP","summary":"如何做好基民资金与好股票之间的连接，对基金公司来说挑战不小。","content":"<p>作者：妙投APP</p>\n<p>“评价一个投资人至少需要 10 年的维度，才能平滑掉风格、周期、运气等方面的影响。相比国际上不少有 30 年、甚至 50 年记录的杰出投资人说，我还有太多需要学习和积累的。”</p>\n<p>这样谦虚的话，来自于顶流基金经理张坤最近在基金年报中的表述。而谦虚的背后，我们也可以看出，张坤面对越来越多需要管理的资金、越来越难的企业价值判断、不断变化的股市投资风格而产生的烦恼。这种烦恼，也是基金行业风光背后面临的重大挑战。</p>\n<p>张坤基金年报说了什么？</p>\n<p>一季度收官，按照惯例，公募基金都在3月底前披露了每只基金的年报。在年报中，基金会披露过去一年里的详细持股情况，而不是只披露基金前十大重仓股。年报还会披露基金向基民收取的管理费、向银行支付的托管费、向券商支付的交易佣金、向销售渠道支付的客户维护费数据，以及基金公司员工购买自家基金的数据，都值得关注一下。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7014c7d5ddd91e9a482ed2b7135b4d18\" tg-width=\"591\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>基金年报中的部分板块</p>\n<p>不过这些信息都是滞后的，相对来说最值得关注的，是年报中的“管理人对宏观经济、证券市场及行业走势的简要展望”栏目，一般是掌管该基金的基金经理亲自写的，或者谈论下一步的经济走势，或者谈选股思路，或者做一些投资者教育的内容，在基金年报中最有价值。</p>\n<p>顶流基金经理的解读最受关注，张坤、刘彦春、朱少醒、付鹏博、刘格菘等明星基金经理的年报内容都会被广泛引用。</p>\n<p>相比于其他基金经理满口行话，张坤年报中的内容浅显易懂，也透露了自己的不少感悟。</p>\n<p>在年报的开始，张坤指出去年的收益率很难持续，今年应当降低预期。</p>\n<blockquote>\n “近两年基金的业绩表现普遍比较亮眼。基金的收益率从根本上是由持仓企业的收益率决定的，拉长来看应大致相当于企业的 ROE（净资产收益率）水平。从全球来看，能够长期维持较高 ROE的公司是非常少见且优秀的，近两年公募权益类基金的复合收益率远高于市场平均 ROE 水平，这样的趋势很难长期持续，因此，我们或许应该降低对收益率的预期。”\n</blockquote>\n<p>这跟大众的观点一致。今年在流动性拐点和前期涨幅过大等因素影响下，收益很难再保持前两年的水平。春节以来，包括张坤在内的明星基金经理旗下产品回撤幅度都比较大，比例高的已经达两成。</p>\n<p>广发基金的观点也认为，今年的一致预期是投资回报率会下降，同时市场的波动会加大，这次一致预期大概率会成为现实，原因有三点。从经济的角度来看，上半年的经济趋势仍然较好，但下半年有可能会边际转弱；从政策的角度来看，经济回到潜在产出水平意味信用会逐步收紧；从产业的角度来看，产业趋势与头部集中的效应仍然存在，但大部分重仓股的估值相对较高。</p>\n<p>接下来，张坤在年报中论述了自己在投资中经历的烦恼与感悟。</p>\n<blockquote>\n “任何长期有效的方法都有短期的失灵。我们在投资上市公司时，如果信心是建立在股价上涨上，是很难赚到钱的，因为股价必然会有向下波动的时候。因此，我的一点体会是，在股价阶段性跑输市场时进行建仓，能够更加有效地拷问自己的内心：我是否相信这个公司的底层逻辑？是否对公司的长期逻辑充满信心？假如股市关闭、三年无法交易，我是否还有信心买入这个公司？或许，投资基金也有类似之处。\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 回顾 2020 年，让我们欣喜的是，我们对一些行业和公司加深了理解，同时也努力拓展了研究的范围，对企业价值的洞察力获得了提升。我们 2020 年的一些投资决策，来自于较长时间的研究积累，并借助疫情中市场悲观的机会完成了建仓。我们希望不断精进自己的研究，从而更好地指导未来的投资。\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 基金经理的职业与医生或许有些方面相似，都是理论和实战缺一不可的，都是需要不断积累、同时知识复用性很高的职业，需要通过每天不断的阅读、思考、决策、纠错来完备自己的知识体系，提升自己决策的准确性。由于从入行到成熟需要漫长的成长期，以及市场存在短期的随机性，我认为评价一个投资人至少需要 10 年的维度，才能平滑掉风格、周期、运气等方面的影响。相比国际上不少有 30 年、甚至 50 年记录的杰出投资人说，我还有太多需要学习和积累的。遗憾的是，这个过程并没有任何捷径，无法一蹴而就，认知水平是由过往所有的思考、实践和经验积累决定的。\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 最后，我们对于中国经济和资本市场的长期前景是乐观的，相信会有一批优质企业不断长大、成熟并且长寿，优质的股权资产在各大类资产中仍是具有吸引力的。公募基金的意义在于，让普通人能够更加有效地对接优质的股权资源，让持有人能够更好地分享中国经济的发展成果，跟上社会财富增长的快车。虽然能力有限，但我将全力以赴，最大限度把认知水平投射到基金的投资决策中来。希望能够选出优质的企业，长期持有并分享企业的发展成果。”\n</blockquote>\n<p>张坤的烦恼在于，面对不断变化的市场风格，没有哪一种投资方法与投资策略可以一直勇立潮头在市场中博取超额收益。张坤偏好价值股，看重企业护城河与竞争力，集中持仓同时注重股票的安全边际，长期持股，换手较少，在今年的周期股行情中吃亏比较多。但对于基金经理而言，最重要的是守住自己的投资风格，并在牛熊之间不断丰富自己的投资框架，而不是试图去不断调整自己的风格，去适应市场的变化。</p>\n<p>有自己鲜明的投资风格，比如一直看好价值股，或者一直投成长股，擅长大盘股或者小市值股，投资者会对这个基金经理有稳定的预期，从而在不同基金经理之间进行资金配置。风格漂移的基金经理，一方面往往让基金经理的投资难以捉摸，影响投资者的判断，另一方面长期业绩也很难保障，因为即使基金经理也把握不了股市的风格快速转换，更难以在不同类型的风格中找到真正有价值的上市公司，毕竟每个人的认知范围都是有限的。</p>\n<p>在这方面张坤比较清醒，虽然现在被捧为公募一哥，但非常有定力和谦逊。在年报中，张坤表示能力有限，在研究范围、企业价值的洞察力方面，还有太多需要学习和积累的，需要持续不断的学习来提升投资决策的准确性。</p>\n<p>张坤更大的烦恼在于，对行业与公司的了解、对企业价值的判断，还要进一步提升，以增强决策的准确性。这也是基金经理这个职业一辈子的功课。一方面要拓展思维的深度，在更深层次上完善投资框架，确立投资逻辑，另一方面还要适度拓展研究的广度，毕竟牛股会存在于不同的行业，需要去发掘更多有真正价值的公司，不可能一直泡在一个板块上。</p>\n<p>外界评价的骤变对张坤来说或许也是一大烦恼。年前挣钱的时候被碰上了天，甚至连粉丝后援团都出现了。年后股市调整导致基金净值下跌，骂声质疑声不断。因此张坤也在年报中提到，评价一个投资人至少需要 10 年的维度，去平滑掉风格、周期、运气等方面的影响。</p>\n<p>在最后张坤重申了对国内资本市场的看好，以及公募基金的价值。当下基金受股市下跌影响收益下滑，整个行业也在基金投资全民化的背景下背负着比较大的压力。但投资者对于公募基金行业还是应该更理性地看待，没有只涨不跌的投资，也只有坚持长期投资才会有理想的收益。对这个行业也不必过分苛责，说到底公募是为普通投资者服务的，把这些明星基金经理逼到私募去服务高净值用户了，其实也是众多普通投资者的损失。</p>\n<p>总体来说张坤的年报内容与之前差异很大。在2020年3月底发布的2019年报里，张坤主要针对疫情对经济影响做了简单分析，表达了对股市的长期看好。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/310dd81e77b2cb3d25f1e622d74fc9a1\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>在2020年中报中，张坤则做起了投资者教育。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1b5e82887ed7510bd36c326ff99b0c1\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"295\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>2020年报，张坤更多地讲述自己的坚持与困扰。这可能跟张坤与整个基金行业当下的大背景相关。资金大规模流入，市场风格转换，股票越来越多元，判断价值的难度越来越大。</p>\n<p>鹏华基金一位基金经理最近也表示，市场短期很多东西其实不易看清。但如果把时间维度拉长到3年至5年，就会清晰很多，能够买的股票也会很少，因为真正有复利的、持续成长的公司并不多。投资者买基金，实际上就是把钱交给基金经理，基金经理再把这些钱，换成他们认为未来5年到10年最具成长性的行业，然后在这些行业里面找到最具确定性、竞争格局最好的公司。</p>\n<p>基金经理是资金与好股票之间的中枢，在数千家上市公司中判断、挖掘出好股票，难度无疑是很大的。</p>\n<p>基金大扩容，基金公司的能力跟上了吗？</p>\n<p>当下，张坤所在的基金行业，站在了风口浪尖的位置。以前民众的钱都是存在银行里，或者投到楼市中。在房住不炒的主基调之下，居民手中的钱，正在从银行、楼市，逐渐转到资本市场。国内正在迎来资管、财富管理的大时代，基金公司将在这个时代扮演中枢的角色，就像张坤在年报中说的，让普通人能够更加有效地对接优质的股权资源，分享中国经济的发展成果，跟上社会财富增长的快车。这意味着基金行业将面临巨大机遇，也在管理能力上遭遇巨大挑战。</p>\n<p>最近两年里，大量用户进入基金市场。Mob研究院数据显示，2020年，6000万新基民加入基金的狂欢，互联网基民用户规模突破1.2亿，同比上升90.7%。但新基民还没有形成成熟的投资理念，在基金的涨跌之下，嬉笑怒骂成了网上一景，也让基金行业承担了不少的压力。3月下旬，嘉实基金明星基金经理归凯还在网上发布了道歉信，就基金净值大幅回撤致歉投资者，这在以往很罕见，引发了基金经理该不该为业绩道歉的争论。</p>\n<p>这种舆论争议还是小事，对行业来讲不是重大因素。真正困扰基金行业的，是在这样的财富转移过程中，基金行业是否有能力做好财富管理中枢的角色？</p>\n<p>现在国内正在经历着海量资产证券化和居民投资转向基金的双重浪潮。上面提到的居民理财大量转移到基金的趋势，为这个行业带来大量的待投资资金需要管理。Wind数据显示，今年一季度共成立422只新基金，合计募集资金1.07万亿元，同比增长超过90%。去年同期规模为6000亿左右。从近年来的数据看，也只有2015年、2019年和2020年这3年新发基金规模超过了1万亿元，因为这三年内都是牛市。其他年份募资均未超越1万亿。</p>\n<p>越来越多的资金进来，对基金公司的投资管理能力是很大的挑战。行业被迫快速扩容。统计显示，今年一季度，公募行业出现的新基金经理达144人，几乎是倍数级增长。相比之下，2020年同期这一数字为56人，2019年同期为74人。</p>\n<p>从资产的角度看，不同行业、不同发展阶段、不同模式的公司纷纷上市，对基金公司的认知能力研究能力挑战也非常大。以前股市算不上经济的晴雨表，因为很多重要企业、知名企业都没有上市。现在发生了很大变化，大部分央企已经完成了上市。民营公司中，从传统行业到新经济，也都经历了优秀企业上市潮，尤其是科创板上市以来，AI企业、芯片企业、金融科技公司、医疗服务、云服务、智能制造等，都经历了或者正在经历上市高峰期。不仅是千亿美金的巨头纷纷上市，现在估值刚到独角兽的公司也迫不及待上市了。可以预期的是，未来股市里待研究的股票池变大，对基金的研究、估值工作都提出了前所未有的要求。</p>\n<p>以前上市企业里多是在细分领域里确立了优势的公司，基金公司投资其护城河和现金流就好了。现在很多赛道还未分出胜负，里面的公司就已经纷纷上市了。以现在比较火热的K12大班课赛道为例，头部四家公司中，只有作业帮、猿辅导未上市，在一级市场融资；好未来、跟谁学在二级市场融资。未进入头部的网易有道、一起作业也已经上市。</p>\n<p>以往在一级市场里面厮杀的企业涌入了二级市场，如何在这种未来充满未知的行业寻找价值或者判断成长，对于基金经理的能力来说是是个不小的挑战。</p>\n<p>相比之下，一级市场的知名投资人多有创业与管理团队的背景，也有在某项领域里摸爬滚打的经验，对行业的理解相对更深刻。而二级市场的基金经理大多是名校毕业后就在券商、基金做投资研究工作，经历与能力结构相对单一，尤其是在垂直行业的理解上，要经历不断的成长。二者的研究方式也并不相同，一级市场投资人更多是泡在行业里，不断地去接触从业者。二级市场基金经理更多在财报与数据中挖掘价值，直接接触行业内公司的次数相对要少。在更加未知的资本市场去选赛道、选公司，是基金公司非常需要补强的能力。如果这种能力不足，长期业绩就难以保证，基金行业在资管浪潮中也就难以扮演重要角色。</p>\n<p>一家基金公司的负责人也认为，行业需要管理的资金量变大了，如何去管理越来越多的资产，是当下资产管理机构面临的挑战之一，破局关键在于坚持长期基本面的理念。</p>\n<p>虽然股市会有沉浮，但未来几年还会是基金大幅扩容的时期。如何做好基民资金与好股票之间的连接，让普通民众对接到好的资产，一起分享增值过程，对基金公司来说挑战不小。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>张坤年报中的烦恼，也是基金大时代的挑战</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n张坤年报中的烦恼，也是基金大时代的挑战\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/101\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/98669fe7974e42f3976b3db47528792d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">虎嗅APP </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-04-06 12:35</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>作者：妙投APP</p>\n<p>“评价一个投资人至少需要 10 年的维度，才能平滑掉风格、周期、运气等方面的影响。相比国际上不少有 30 年、甚至 50 年记录的杰出投资人说，我还有太多需要学习和积累的。”</p>\n<p>这样谦虚的话，来自于顶流基金经理张坤最近在基金年报中的表述。而谦虚的背后，我们也可以看出，张坤面对越来越多需要管理的资金、越来越难的企业价值判断、不断变化的股市投资风格而产生的烦恼。这种烦恼，也是基金行业风光背后面临的重大挑战。</p>\n<p>张坤基金年报说了什么？</p>\n<p>一季度收官，按照惯例，公募基金都在3月底前披露了每只基金的年报。在年报中，基金会披露过去一年里的详细持股情况，而不是只披露基金前十大重仓股。年报还会披露基金向基民收取的管理费、向银行支付的托管费、向券商支付的交易佣金、向销售渠道支付的客户维护费数据，以及基金公司员工购买自家基金的数据，都值得关注一下。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7014c7d5ddd91e9a482ed2b7135b4d18\" tg-width=\"591\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>基金年报中的部分板块</p>\n<p>不过这些信息都是滞后的，相对来说最值得关注的，是年报中的“管理人对宏观经济、证券市场及行业走势的简要展望”栏目，一般是掌管该基金的基金经理亲自写的，或者谈论下一步的经济走势，或者谈选股思路，或者做一些投资者教育的内容，在基金年报中最有价值。</p>\n<p>顶流基金经理的解读最受关注，张坤、刘彦春、朱少醒、付鹏博、刘格菘等明星基金经理的年报内容都会被广泛引用。</p>\n<p>相比于其他基金经理满口行话，张坤年报中的内容浅显易懂，也透露了自己的不少感悟。</p>\n<p>在年报的开始，张坤指出去年的收益率很难持续，今年应当降低预期。</p>\n<blockquote>\n “近两年基金的业绩表现普遍比较亮眼。基金的收益率从根本上是由持仓企业的收益率决定的，拉长来看应大致相当于企业的 ROE（净资产收益率）水平。从全球来看，能够长期维持较高 ROE的公司是非常少见且优秀的，近两年公募权益类基金的复合收益率远高于市场平均 ROE 水平，这样的趋势很难长期持续，因此，我们或许应该降低对收益率的预期。”\n</blockquote>\n<p>这跟大众的观点一致。今年在流动性拐点和前期涨幅过大等因素影响下，收益很难再保持前两年的水平。春节以来，包括张坤在内的明星基金经理旗下产品回撤幅度都比较大，比例高的已经达两成。</p>\n<p>广发基金的观点也认为，今年的一致预期是投资回报率会下降，同时市场的波动会加大，这次一致预期大概率会成为现实，原因有三点。从经济的角度来看，上半年的经济趋势仍然较好，但下半年有可能会边际转弱；从政策的角度来看，经济回到潜在产出水平意味信用会逐步收紧；从产业的角度来看，产业趋势与头部集中的效应仍然存在，但大部分重仓股的估值相对较高。</p>\n<p>接下来，张坤在年报中论述了自己在投资中经历的烦恼与感悟。</p>\n<blockquote>\n “任何长期有效的方法都有短期的失灵。我们在投资上市公司时，如果信心是建立在股价上涨上，是很难赚到钱的，因为股价必然会有向下波动的时候。因此，我的一点体会是，在股价阶段性跑输市场时进行建仓，能够更加有效地拷问自己的内心：我是否相信这个公司的底层逻辑？是否对公司的长期逻辑充满信心？假如股市关闭、三年无法交易，我是否还有信心买入这个公司？或许，投资基金也有类似之处。\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 回顾 2020 年，让我们欣喜的是，我们对一些行业和公司加深了理解，同时也努力拓展了研究的范围，对企业价值的洞察力获得了提升。我们 2020 年的一些投资决策，来自于较长时间的研究积累，并借助疫情中市场悲观的机会完成了建仓。我们希望不断精进自己的研究，从而更好地指导未来的投资。\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 基金经理的职业与医生或许有些方面相似，都是理论和实战缺一不可的，都是需要不断积累、同时知识复用性很高的职业，需要通过每天不断的阅读、思考、决策、纠错来完备自己的知识体系，提升自己决策的准确性。由于从入行到成熟需要漫长的成长期，以及市场存在短期的随机性，我认为评价一个投资人至少需要 10 年的维度，才能平滑掉风格、周期、运气等方面的影响。相比国际上不少有 30 年、甚至 50 年记录的杰出投资人说，我还有太多需要学习和积累的。遗憾的是，这个过程并没有任何捷径，无法一蹴而就，认知水平是由过往所有的思考、实践和经验积累决定的。\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 最后，我们对于中国经济和资本市场的长期前景是乐观的，相信会有一批优质企业不断长大、成熟并且长寿，优质的股权资产在各大类资产中仍是具有吸引力的。公募基金的意义在于，让普通人能够更加有效地对接优质的股权资源，让持有人能够更好地分享中国经济的发展成果，跟上社会财富增长的快车。虽然能力有限，但我将全力以赴，最大限度把认知水平投射到基金的投资决策中来。希望能够选出优质的企业，长期持有并分享企业的发展成果。”\n</blockquote>\n<p>张坤的烦恼在于，面对不断变化的市场风格，没有哪一种投资方法与投资策略可以一直勇立潮头在市场中博取超额收益。张坤偏好价值股，看重企业护城河与竞争力，集中持仓同时注重股票的安全边际，长期持股，换手较少，在今年的周期股行情中吃亏比较多。但对于基金经理而言，最重要的是守住自己的投资风格，并在牛熊之间不断丰富自己的投资框架，而不是试图去不断调整自己的风格，去适应市场的变化。</p>\n<p>有自己鲜明的投资风格，比如一直看好价值股，或者一直投成长股，擅长大盘股或者小市值股，投资者会对这个基金经理有稳定的预期，从而在不同基金经理之间进行资金配置。风格漂移的基金经理，一方面往往让基金经理的投资难以捉摸，影响投资者的判断，另一方面长期业绩也很难保障，因为即使基金经理也把握不了股市的风格快速转换，更难以在不同类型的风格中找到真正有价值的上市公司，毕竟每个人的认知范围都是有限的。</p>\n<p>在这方面张坤比较清醒，虽然现在被捧为公募一哥，但非常有定力和谦逊。在年报中，张坤表示能力有限，在研究范围、企业价值的洞察力方面，还有太多需要学习和积累的，需要持续不断的学习来提升投资决策的准确性。</p>\n<p>张坤更大的烦恼在于，对行业与公司的了解、对企业价值的判断，还要进一步提升，以增强决策的准确性。这也是基金经理这个职业一辈子的功课。一方面要拓展思维的深度，在更深层次上完善投资框架，确立投资逻辑，另一方面还要适度拓展研究的广度，毕竟牛股会存在于不同的行业，需要去发掘更多有真正价值的公司，不可能一直泡在一个板块上。</p>\n<p>外界评价的骤变对张坤来说或许也是一大烦恼。年前挣钱的时候被碰上了天，甚至连粉丝后援团都出现了。年后股市调整导致基金净值下跌，骂声质疑声不断。因此张坤也在年报中提到，评价一个投资人至少需要 10 年的维度，去平滑掉风格、周期、运气等方面的影响。</p>\n<p>在最后张坤重申了对国内资本市场的看好，以及公募基金的价值。当下基金受股市下跌影响收益下滑，整个行业也在基金投资全民化的背景下背负着比较大的压力。但投资者对于公募基金行业还是应该更理性地看待，没有只涨不跌的投资，也只有坚持长期投资才会有理想的收益。对这个行业也不必过分苛责，说到底公募是为普通投资者服务的，把这些明星基金经理逼到私募去服务高净值用户了，其实也是众多普通投资者的损失。</p>\n<p>总体来说张坤的年报内容与之前差异很大。在2020年3月底发布的2019年报里，张坤主要针对疫情对经济影响做了简单分析，表达了对股市的长期看好。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/310dd81e77b2cb3d25f1e622d74fc9a1\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>在2020年中报中，张坤则做起了投资者教育。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1b5e82887ed7510bd36c326ff99b0c1\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"295\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>2020年报，张坤更多地讲述自己的坚持与困扰。这可能跟张坤与整个基金行业当下的大背景相关。资金大规模流入，市场风格转换，股票越来越多元，判断价值的难度越来越大。</p>\n<p>鹏华基金一位基金经理最近也表示，市场短期很多东西其实不易看清。但如果把时间维度拉长到3年至5年，就会清晰很多，能够买的股票也会很少，因为真正有复利的、持续成长的公司并不多。投资者买基金，实际上就是把钱交给基金经理，基金经理再把这些钱，换成他们认为未来5年到10年最具成长性的行业，然后在这些行业里面找到最具确定性、竞争格局最好的公司。</p>\n<p>基金经理是资金与好股票之间的中枢，在数千家上市公司中判断、挖掘出好股票，难度无疑是很大的。</p>\n<p>基金大扩容，基金公司的能力跟上了吗？</p>\n<p>当下，张坤所在的基金行业，站在了风口浪尖的位置。以前民众的钱都是存在银行里，或者投到楼市中。在房住不炒的主基调之下，居民手中的钱，正在从银行、楼市，逐渐转到资本市场。国内正在迎来资管、财富管理的大时代，基金公司将在这个时代扮演中枢的角色，就像张坤在年报中说的，让普通人能够更加有效地对接优质的股权资源，分享中国经济的发展成果，跟上社会财富增长的快车。这意味着基金行业将面临巨大机遇，也在管理能力上遭遇巨大挑战。</p>\n<p>最近两年里，大量用户进入基金市场。Mob研究院数据显示，2020年，6000万新基民加入基金的狂欢，互联网基民用户规模突破1.2亿，同比上升90.7%。但新基民还没有形成成熟的投资理念，在基金的涨跌之下，嬉笑怒骂成了网上一景，也让基金行业承担了不少的压力。3月下旬，嘉实基金明星基金经理归凯还在网上发布了道歉信，就基金净值大幅回撤致歉投资者，这在以往很罕见，引发了基金经理该不该为业绩道歉的争论。</p>\n<p>这种舆论争议还是小事，对行业来讲不是重大因素。真正困扰基金行业的，是在这样的财富转移过程中，基金行业是否有能力做好财富管理中枢的角色？</p>\n<p>现在国内正在经历着海量资产证券化和居民投资转向基金的双重浪潮。上面提到的居民理财大量转移到基金的趋势，为这个行业带来大量的待投资资金需要管理。Wind数据显示，今年一季度共成立422只新基金，合计募集资金1.07万亿元，同比增长超过90%。去年同期规模为6000亿左右。从近年来的数据看，也只有2015年、2019年和2020年这3年新发基金规模超过了1万亿元，因为这三年内都是牛市。其他年份募资均未超越1万亿。</p>\n<p>越来越多的资金进来，对基金公司的投资管理能力是很大的挑战。行业被迫快速扩容。统计显示，今年一季度，公募行业出现的新基金经理达144人，几乎是倍数级增长。相比之下，2020年同期这一数字为56人，2019年同期为74人。</p>\n<p>从资产的角度看，不同行业、不同发展阶段、不同模式的公司纷纷上市，对基金公司的认知能力研究能力挑战也非常大。以前股市算不上经济的晴雨表，因为很多重要企业、知名企业都没有上市。现在发生了很大变化，大部分央企已经完成了上市。民营公司中，从传统行业到新经济，也都经历了优秀企业上市潮，尤其是科创板上市以来，AI企业、芯片企业、金融科技公司、医疗服务、云服务、智能制造等，都经历了或者正在经历上市高峰期。不仅是千亿美金的巨头纷纷上市，现在估值刚到独角兽的公司也迫不及待上市了。可以预期的是，未来股市里待研究的股票池变大，对基金的研究、估值工作都提出了前所未有的要求。</p>\n<p>以前上市企业里多是在细分领域里确立了优势的公司，基金公司投资其护城河和现金流就好了。现在很多赛道还未分出胜负，里面的公司就已经纷纷上市了。以现在比较火热的K12大班课赛道为例，头部四家公司中，只有作业帮、猿辅导未上市，在一级市场融资；好未来、跟谁学在二级市场融资。未进入头部的网易有道、一起作业也已经上市。</p>\n<p>以往在一级市场里面厮杀的企业涌入了二级市场，如何在这种未来充满未知的行业寻找价值或者判断成长，对于基金经理的能力来说是是个不小的挑战。</p>\n<p>相比之下，一级市场的知名投资人多有创业与管理团队的背景，也有在某项领域里摸爬滚打的经验，对行业的理解相对更深刻。而二级市场的基金经理大多是名校毕业后就在券商、基金做投资研究工作，经历与能力结构相对单一，尤其是在垂直行业的理解上，要经历不断的成长。二者的研究方式也并不相同，一级市场投资人更多是泡在行业里，不断地去接触从业者。二级市场基金经理更多在财报与数据中挖掘价值，直接接触行业内公司的次数相对要少。在更加未知的资本市场去选赛道、选公司，是基金公司非常需要补强的能力。如果这种能力不足，长期业绩就难以保证，基金行业在资管浪潮中也就难以扮演重要角色。</p>\n<p>一家基金公司的负责人也认为，行业需要管理的资金量变大了，如何去管理越来越多的资产，是当下资产管理机构面临的挑战之一，破局关键在于坚持长期基本面的理念。</p>\n<p>虽然股市会有沉浮，但未来几年还会是基金大幅扩容的时期。如何做好基民资金与好股票之间的连接，让普通民众对接到好的资产，一起分享增值过程，对基金公司来说挑战不小。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de087febc8ae91f5d829647e37d73a0c","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170248446","content_text":"作者：妙投APP\n“评价一个投资人至少需要 10 年的维度，才能平滑掉风格、周期、运气等方面的影响。相比国际上不少有 30 年、甚至 50 年记录的杰出投资人说，我还有太多需要学习和积累的。”\n这样谦虚的话，来自于顶流基金经理张坤最近在基金年报中的表述。而谦虚的背后，我们也可以看出，张坤面对越来越多需要管理的资金、越来越难的企业价值判断、不断变化的股市投资风格而产生的烦恼。这种烦恼，也是基金行业风光背后面临的重大挑战。\n张坤基金年报说了什么？\n一季度收官，按照惯例，公募基金都在3月底前披露了每只基金的年报。在年报中，基金会披露过去一年里的详细持股情况，而不是只披露基金前十大重仓股。年报还会披露基金向基民收取的管理费、向银行支付的托管费、向券商支付的交易佣金、向销售渠道支付的客户维护费数据，以及基金公司员工购买自家基金的数据，都值得关注一下。\n\n基金年报中的部分板块\n不过这些信息都是滞后的，相对来说最值得关注的，是年报中的“管理人对宏观经济、证券市场及行业走势的简要展望”栏目，一般是掌管该基金的基金经理亲自写的，或者谈论下一步的经济走势，或者谈选股思路，或者做一些投资者教育的内容，在基金年报中最有价值。\n顶流基金经理的解读最受关注，张坤、刘彦春、朱少醒、付鹏博、刘格菘等明星基金经理的年报内容都会被广泛引用。\n相比于其他基金经理满口行话，张坤年报中的内容浅显易懂，也透露了自己的不少感悟。\n在年报的开始，张坤指出去年的收益率很难持续，今年应当降低预期。\n\n “近两年基金的业绩表现普遍比较亮眼。基金的收益率从根本上是由持仓企业的收益率决定的，拉长来看应大致相当于企业的 ROE（净资产收益率）水平。从全球来看，能够长期维持较高 ROE的公司是非常少见且优秀的，近两年公募权益类基金的复合收益率远高于市场平均 ROE 水平，这样的趋势很难长期持续，因此，我们或许应该降低对收益率的预期。”\n\n这跟大众的观点一致。今年在流动性拐点和前期涨幅过大等因素影响下，收益很难再保持前两年的水平。春节以来，包括张坤在内的明星基金经理旗下产品回撤幅度都比较大，比例高的已经达两成。\n广发基金的观点也认为，今年的一致预期是投资回报率会下降，同时市场的波动会加大，这次一致预期大概率会成为现实，原因有三点。从经济的角度来看，上半年的经济趋势仍然较好，但下半年有可能会边际转弱；从政策的角度来看，经济回到潜在产出水平意味信用会逐步收紧；从产业的角度来看，产业趋势与头部集中的效应仍然存在，但大部分重仓股的估值相对较高。\n接下来，张坤在年报中论述了自己在投资中经历的烦恼与感悟。\n\n “任何长期有效的方法都有短期的失灵。我们在投资上市公司时，如果信心是建立在股价上涨上，是很难赚到钱的，因为股价必然会有向下波动的时候。因此，我的一点体会是，在股价阶段性跑输市场时进行建仓，能够更加有效地拷问自己的内心：我是否相信这个公司的底层逻辑？是否对公司的长期逻辑充满信心？假如股市关闭、三年无法交易，我是否还有信心买入这个公司？或许，投资基金也有类似之处。\n\n\n 回顾 2020 年，让我们欣喜的是，我们对一些行业和公司加深了理解，同时也努力拓展了研究的范围，对企业价值的洞察力获得了提升。我们 2020 年的一些投资决策，来自于较长时间的研究积累，并借助疫情中市场悲观的机会完成了建仓。我们希望不断精进自己的研究，从而更好地指导未来的投资。\n\n\n 基金经理的职业与医生或许有些方面相似，都是理论和实战缺一不可的，都是需要不断积累、同时知识复用性很高的职业，需要通过每天不断的阅读、思考、决策、纠错来完备自己的知识体系，提升自己决策的准确性。由于从入行到成熟需要漫长的成长期，以及市场存在短期的随机性，我认为评价一个投资人至少需要 10 年的维度，才能平滑掉风格、周期、运气等方面的影响。相比国际上不少有 30 年、甚至 50 年记录的杰出投资人说，我还有太多需要学习和积累的。遗憾的是，这个过程并没有任何捷径，无法一蹴而就，认知水平是由过往所有的思考、实践和经验积累决定的。\n\n\n 最后，我们对于中国经济和资本市场的长期前景是乐观的，相信会有一批优质企业不断长大、成熟并且长寿，优质的股权资产在各大类资产中仍是具有吸引力的。公募基金的意义在于，让普通人能够更加有效地对接优质的股权资源，让持有人能够更好地分享中国经济的发展成果，跟上社会财富增长的快车。虽然能力有限，但我将全力以赴，最大限度把认知水平投射到基金的投资决策中来。希望能够选出优质的企业，长期持有并分享企业的发展成果。”\n\n张坤的烦恼在于，面对不断变化的市场风格，没有哪一种投资方法与投资策略可以一直勇立潮头在市场中博取超额收益。张坤偏好价值股，看重企业护城河与竞争力，集中持仓同时注重股票的安全边际，长期持股，换手较少，在今年的周期股行情中吃亏比较多。但对于基金经理而言，最重要的是守住自己的投资风格，并在牛熊之间不断丰富自己的投资框架，而不是试图去不断调整自己的风格，去适应市场的变化。\n有自己鲜明的投资风格，比如一直看好价值股，或者一直投成长股，擅长大盘股或者小市值股，投资者会对这个基金经理有稳定的预期，从而在不同基金经理之间进行资金配置。风格漂移的基金经理，一方面往往让基金经理的投资难以捉摸，影响投资者的判断，另一方面长期业绩也很难保障，因为即使基金经理也把握不了股市的风格快速转换，更难以在不同类型的风格中找到真正有价值的上市公司，毕竟每个人的认知范围都是有限的。\n在这方面张坤比较清醒，虽然现在被捧为公募一哥，但非常有定力和谦逊。在年报中，张坤表示能力有限，在研究范围、企业价值的洞察力方面，还有太多需要学习和积累的，需要持续不断的学习来提升投资决策的准确性。\n张坤更大的烦恼在于，对行业与公司的了解、对企业价值的判断，还要进一步提升，以增强决策的准确性。这也是基金经理这个职业一辈子的功课。一方面要拓展思维的深度，在更深层次上完善投资框架，确立投资逻辑，另一方面还要适度拓展研究的广度，毕竟牛股会存在于不同的行业，需要去发掘更多有真正价值的公司，不可能一直泡在一个板块上。\n外界评价的骤变对张坤来说或许也是一大烦恼。年前挣钱的时候被碰上了天，甚至连粉丝后援团都出现了。年后股市调整导致基金净值下跌，骂声质疑声不断。因此张坤也在年报中提到，评价一个投资人至少需要 10 年的维度，去平滑掉风格、周期、运气等方面的影响。\n在最后张坤重申了对国内资本市场的看好，以及公募基金的价值。当下基金受股市下跌影响收益下滑，整个行业也在基金投资全民化的背景下背负着比较大的压力。但投资者对于公募基金行业还是应该更理性地看待，没有只涨不跌的投资，也只有坚持长期投资才会有理想的收益。对这个行业也不必过分苛责，说到底公募是为普通投资者服务的，把这些明星基金经理逼到私募去服务高净值用户了，其实也是众多普通投资者的损失。\n总体来说张坤的年报内容与之前差异很大。在2020年3月底发布的2019年报里，张坤主要针对疫情对经济影响做了简单分析，表达了对股市的长期看好。\n\n在2020年中报中，张坤则做起了投资者教育。\n\n2020年报，张坤更多地讲述自己的坚持与困扰。这可能跟张坤与整个基金行业当下的大背景相关。资金大规模流入，市场风格转换，股票越来越多元，判断价值的难度越来越大。\n鹏华基金一位基金经理最近也表示，市场短期很多东西其实不易看清。但如果把时间维度拉长到3年至5年，就会清晰很多，能够买的股票也会很少，因为真正有复利的、持续成长的公司并不多。投资者买基金，实际上就是把钱交给基金经理，基金经理再把这些钱，换成他们认为未来5年到10年最具成长性的行业，然后在这些行业里面找到最具确定性、竞争格局最好的公司。\n基金经理是资金与好股票之间的中枢，在数千家上市公司中判断、挖掘出好股票，难度无疑是很大的。\n基金大扩容，基金公司的能力跟上了吗？\n当下，张坤所在的基金行业，站在了风口浪尖的位置。以前民众的钱都是存在银行里，或者投到楼市中。在房住不炒的主基调之下，居民手中的钱，正在从银行、楼市，逐渐转到资本市场。国内正在迎来资管、财富管理的大时代，基金公司将在这个时代扮演中枢的角色，就像张坤在年报中说的，让普通人能够更加有效地对接优质的股权资源，分享中国经济的发展成果，跟上社会财富增长的快车。这意味着基金行业将面临巨大机遇，也在管理能力上遭遇巨大挑战。\n最近两年里，大量用户进入基金市场。Mob研究院数据显示，2020年，6000万新基民加入基金的狂欢，互联网基民用户规模突破1.2亿，同比上升90.7%。但新基民还没有形成成熟的投资理念，在基金的涨跌之下，嬉笑怒骂成了网上一景，也让基金行业承担了不少的压力。3月下旬，嘉实基金明星基金经理归凯还在网上发布了道歉信，就基金净值大幅回撤致歉投资者，这在以往很罕见，引发了基金经理该不该为业绩道歉的争论。\n这种舆论争议还是小事，对行业来讲不是重大因素。真正困扰基金行业的，是在这样的财富转移过程中，基金行业是否有能力做好财富管理中枢的角色？\n现在国内正在经历着海量资产证券化和居民投资转向基金的双重浪潮。上面提到的居民理财大量转移到基金的趋势，为这个行业带来大量的待投资资金需要管理。Wind数据显示，今年一季度共成立422只新基金，合计募集资金1.07万亿元，同比增长超过90%。去年同期规模为6000亿左右。从近年来的数据看，也只有2015年、2019年和2020年这3年新发基金规模超过了1万亿元，因为这三年内都是牛市。其他年份募资均未超越1万亿。\n越来越多的资金进来，对基金公司的投资管理能力是很大的挑战。行业被迫快速扩容。统计显示，今年一季度，公募行业出现的新基金经理达144人，几乎是倍数级增长。相比之下，2020年同期这一数字为56人，2019年同期为74人。\n从资产的角度看，不同行业、不同发展阶段、不同模式的公司纷纷上市，对基金公司的认知能力研究能力挑战也非常大。以前股市算不上经济的晴雨表，因为很多重要企业、知名企业都没有上市。现在发生了很大变化，大部分央企已经完成了上市。民营公司中，从传统行业到新经济，也都经历了优秀企业上市潮，尤其是科创板上市以来，AI企业、芯片企业、金融科技公司、医疗服务、云服务、智能制造等，都经历了或者正在经历上市高峰期。不仅是千亿美金的巨头纷纷上市，现在估值刚到独角兽的公司也迫不及待上市了。可以预期的是，未来股市里待研究的股票池变大，对基金的研究、估值工作都提出了前所未有的要求。\n以前上市企业里多是在细分领域里确立了优势的公司，基金公司投资其护城河和现金流就好了。现在很多赛道还未分出胜负，里面的公司就已经纷纷上市了。以现在比较火热的K12大班课赛道为例，头部四家公司中，只有作业帮、猿辅导未上市，在一级市场融资；好未来、跟谁学在二级市场融资。未进入头部的网易有道、一起作业也已经上市。\n以往在一级市场里面厮杀的企业涌入了二级市场，如何在这种未来充满未知的行业寻找价值或者判断成长，对于基金经理的能力来说是是个不小的挑战。\n相比之下，一级市场的知名投资人多有创业与管理团队的背景，也有在某项领域里摸爬滚打的经验，对行业的理解相对更深刻。而二级市场的基金经理大多是名校毕业后就在券商、基金做投资研究工作，经历与能力结构相对单一，尤其是在垂直行业的理解上，要经历不断的成长。二者的研究方式也并不相同，一级市场投资人更多是泡在行业里，不断地去接触从业者。二级市场基金经理更多在财报与数据中挖掘价值，直接接触行业内公司的次数相对要少。在更加未知的资本市场去选赛道、选公司，是基金公司非常需要补强的能力。如果这种能力不足，长期业绩就难以保证，基金行业在资管浪潮中也就难以扮演重要角色。\n一家基金公司的负责人也认为，行业需要管理的资金量变大了，如何去管理越来越多的资产，是当下资产管理机构面临的挑战之一，破局关键在于坚持长期基本面的理念。\n虽然股市会有沉浮，但未来几年还会是基金大幅扩容的时期。如何做好基民资金与好股票之间的连接，让普通民众对接到好的资产，一起分享增值过程，对基金公司来说挑战不小。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2687,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":338472456,"gmtCreate":1609952111175,"gmtModify":1703741653839,"author":{"id":"3545005267304010","authorId":"3545005267304010","name":"厚积薄发886","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6bf7e465a84311063b1dd9955d6cd52","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3545005267304010","authorIdStr":"3545005267304010"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HMY\">$哈莫尼黄金(HMY)$</a>这个破股就是不涨，奇了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOLD\">$巴里克黄金(GOLD)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HMY\">$哈莫尼黄金(HMY)$</a>这个破股就是不涨，奇了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOLD\">$巴里克黄金(GOLD)$</a>","text":"$哈莫尼黄金(HMY)$这个破股就是不涨，奇了$巴里克黄金(GOLD)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/338472456","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2757,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3573298967974119","authorId":"3573298967974119","name":"新资本ITMango","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d494e5f782be9fcca9be5806a1c23b2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3573298967974119","authorIdStr":"3573298967974119"},"content":"第一，楼上正解。 第二，前一个还是有机到4.8的。只不过，需要好几个月。","text":"第一，楼上正解。 第二，前一个还是有机到4.8的。只不过，需要好几个月。","html":"第一，楼上正解。 第二，前一个还是有机到4.8的。只不过，需要好几个月。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":339515768,"gmtCreate":1608937334254,"gmtModify":1703737353461,"author":{"id":"3545005267304010","authorId":"3545005267304010","name":"厚积薄发886","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6bf7e465a84311063b1dd9955d6cd52","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3545005267304010","authorIdStr":"3545005267304010"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"要是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/387611620380\">@gugu</a>能在被投票人里面，也一定能进前十，因为她有独到的分析，也免费，也会回答问题，下次这个投票名单确定前是不是应该征求一下用户意见?&nbsp;","listText":"要是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/387611620380\">@gugu</a>能在被投票人里面，也一定能进前十，因为她有独到的分析，也免费，也会回答问题，下次这个投票名单确定前是不是应该征求一下用户意见?&nbsp;","text":"要是@gugu能在被投票人里面，也一定能进前十，因为她有独到的分析，也免费，也会回答问题，下次这个投票名单确定前是不是应该征求一下用户意见?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/339515768","repostId":"339264784","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":339264784,"gmtCreate":1608875913243,"gmtModify":1703737243024,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36984908995200","authorIdStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"【颁奖】2020老虎社区年度人物&新锐人物揭晓","htmlText":"大gia好，万众瞩目的2020老虎社区年度人物&amp;老虎社区新锐人物榜单即将揭晓，快来看看你的爱豆有没有获奖？ 首先小虎要公布2020年度老虎社区影响力排名前十的虎友。（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/398728437\" target=\"_blank\">请点击这里查看投票情况</a>） <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3458738367709590\">@蒋书杰_美股玩家</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/74125836878304\">@空军大队长</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3465849506761816\">@牛万最不懂snap</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/27853154588556\">@柳下惠的气质</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3503101861637632\">@SSally</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3521339628608760\">@美股队长8</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/30910413546816\">@springboot</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3534312224764596\">@甘灿荣_交易所讲师及资管</a>","listText":"大gia好，万众瞩目的2020老虎社区年度人物&amp;老虎社区新锐人物榜单即将揭晓，快来看看你的爱豆有没有获奖？ 首先小虎要公布2020年度老虎社区影响力排名前十的虎友。（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/398728437\" target=\"_blank\">请点击这里查看投票情况</a>） <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3458738367709590\">@蒋书杰_美股玩家</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/74125836878304\">@空军大队长</a> <a target=\"_blank\" 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