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黄船长
2024-11-24
明白了，中国股市是☝️让跌的
美股上涨的核心逻辑：市场赌特朗普不会让股市跌！
黄船长
2022-10-25
能说服自己吗
段永平发声：又买了一点腾讯，虽然不知道发生了什么
黄船长
2021-11-10
欧盟缺钱就罚fanmg
谷歌输掉在欧盟的反垄断诉讼，将支付28亿美元罚金
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,"images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/374390138237424","repostId":"2485393087","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2485393087","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1732416591,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2485393087?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-11-24 10:49","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股上涨的核心逻辑：市场赌特朗普不会让股市跌！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2485393087","media":"智通财经网","summary":"美股市场预期，特朗普上台后将推出一系列利好政策，包括大幅降低企业税率、放松金融监管等措施，这进一步强化了“特朗普看跌期权”的市场影响力。","content":"<html><head></head><body><div> <p>目前，美股正上演一出由“特朗普看跌期权”推动的上涨行情。</p><p>周五，道琼斯工业指数上涨1%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>上涨0.3%，罗素2000指数上涨1.8%。本周，美股小盘股表现尤为亮眼，小盘股指数本周大涨4.5%。</p><p>Fundstrat分析师Thomas Lee认为，考虑到当选总统特朗普的放松监管计划以及当前美股市场普遍的“动物精神”，小盘股和周期性股票还有进一步上涨的空间。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/678fffe505b7cbd74444d923b58de208\"/></p><p><strong>所谓“特朗普看跌期权”，指的是市场普遍认为特朗普不会让股市大幅下跌的预期心理。</strong></p><p>见闻此前文章提及，这源于特朗普独特的执政风格：他非常关心标普走势，将股市表现视为执政成效的重要指标，每当标普指数出现大幅下跌，他都会迅速调整政策方向。</p><p>Bahnsen Group创始人David Bahnsen认为，特朗普对金融市场的重视源于其对曼哈顿金融精英阶层认可的渴望：</p><p>“他一直渴望融入曼哈顿金融精英圈，但却总觉得自己是局外人。”</p><p>因此，市场预期他上台后将推出一系列利好政策，包括大幅降低企业税率、放松金融监管等措施，这进一步强化了"特朗普看跌期权"的市场影响力。<strong>换言之，美股市场在“赌”特朗普绝不会容忍股市暴跌。</strong></p><p>“特朗普看跌期权”卷土重来？</p><p><strong>华尔街对特朗普回归抱持乐观态度，主要基于以下几点预期：</strong></p><p>第一，政策利好。市场预期特朗普将推出包括降低企业税率（从21%降至15%）、大幅放松管制（每出台一项新规则就取消10项旧规则）等利好政策。同时，他承诺上任第一天就将撤换美国证券交易委员会（SEC）主席根斯勒（Gary Gensler）。一些华尔街高管预计，在放松管制等举措推动下，银行业将迎来更多并购机会。</p><p>第二，个人特质。Bahnsen Group（管理资产650亿美元）的David Bahnsen认为，特朗普对金融市场的重视源于其对曼哈顿金融精英阶层认可的渴望。"他一生都感觉自己是曼哈顿的局外人，从未获得应得的认可和尊重。"这种心理特征，某种程度上成为市场的"安全垫"。</p><p>第三，政策温和预期。著名经济学家鲁比尼（"末日博士"）等人认为，特朗普对市场的重视，加上合适的顾问团队，可能会让其实际政策"更加温和"。</p><p><strong>然而，并非所有人都对“特朗普看跌期权”深信不疑。</strong> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCO\">穆迪</a>分析首席经济学家Mark Zandi警告称，市场过度乐观情绪正在将股价推得太高，可能会导致“清算日”的到来。一些专家担心，特朗普的大规模驱逐移民和巨额关税政策可能会对劳动力市场和经济造成负面影响。</p><p>此外，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>首席独立董事Tom Glocer提醒，特朗普反复无常的政治风格也可能引发市场波动，例如，如果他拒绝在第二任期结束后下台，市场可能会陷入混乱。</p><p><strong>本文来源“华尔街见闻”，作者高智谋，智通财经编辑：陈秋达。</strong></p> <div></div> </div></body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股上涨的核心逻辑：市场赌特朗普不会让股市跌！</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股上涨的核心逻辑：市场赌特朗普不会让股市跌！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-11-24 10:49 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1215029.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>目前，美股正上演一出由“特朗普看跌期权”推动的上涨行情。周五，道琼斯工业指数上涨1%，标普500上涨0.3%，罗素2000指数上涨1.8%。本周，美股小盘股表现尤为亮眼，小盘股指数本周大涨4.5%。Fundstrat分析师Thomas Lee认为，考虑到当选总统特朗普的放松监管计划以及当前美股市场普遍的“动物精神”，小盘股和周期性股票还有进一步上涨的空间。所谓“特朗普看跌期权”，指的是市场...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1215029.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c2105a0eed1dcec40b15a14748a1c48","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1215029.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2485393087","content_text":"目前，美股正上演一出由“特朗普看跌期权”推动的上涨行情。周五，道琼斯工业指数上涨1%，标普500上涨0.3%，罗素2000指数上涨1.8%。本周，美股小盘股表现尤为亮眼，小盘股指数本周大涨4.5%。Fundstrat分析师Thomas Lee认为，考虑到当选总统特朗普的放松监管计划以及当前美股市场普遍的“动物精神”，小盘股和周期性股票还有进一步上涨的空间。所谓“特朗普看跌期权”，指的是市场普遍认为特朗普不会让股市大幅下跌的预期心理。见闻此前文章提及，这源于特朗普独特的执政风格：他非常关心标普走势，将股市表现视为执政成效的重要指标，每当标普指数出现大幅下跌，他都会迅速调整政策方向。Bahnsen Group创始人David Bahnsen认为，特朗普对金融市场的重视源于其对曼哈顿金融精英阶层认可的渴望：“他一直渴望融入曼哈顿金融精英圈，但却总觉得自己是局外人。”因此，市场预期他上台后将推出一系列利好政策，包括大幅降低企业税率、放松金融监管等措施，这进一步强化了\"特朗普看跌期权\"的市场影响力。换言之，美股市场在“赌”特朗普绝不会容忍股市暴跌。“特朗普看跌期权”卷土重来？华尔街对特朗普回归抱持乐观态度，主要基于以下几点预期：第一，政策利好。市场预期特朗普将推出包括降低企业税率（从21%降至15%）、大幅放松管制（每出台一项新规则就取消10项旧规则）等利好政策。同时，他承诺上任第一天就将撤换美国证券交易委员会（SEC）主席根斯勒（Gary Gensler）。一些华尔街高管预计，在放松管制等举措推动下，银行业将迎来更多并购机会。第二，个人特质。Bahnsen Group（管理资产650亿美元）的David Bahnsen认为，特朗普对金融市场的重视源于其对曼哈顿金融精英阶层认可的渴望。\"他一生都感觉自己是曼哈顿的局外人，从未获得应得的认可和尊重。\"这种心理特征，某种程度上成为市场的\"安全垫\"。第三，政策温和预期。著名经济学家鲁比尼（\"末日博士\"）等人认为，特朗普对市场的重视，加上合适的顾问团队，可能会让其实际政策\"更加温和\"。然而，并非所有人都对“特朗普看跌期权”深信不疑。 穆迪分析首席经济学家Mark Zandi警告称，市场过度乐观情绪正在将股价推得太高，可能会导致“清算日”的到来。一些专家担心，特朗普的大规模驱逐移民和巨额关税政策可能会对劳动力市场和经济造成负面影响。此外，摩根士丹利首席独立董事Tom Glocer提醒，特朗普反复无常的政治风格也可能引发市场波动，例如，如果他拒绝在第二任期结束后下台，市场可能会陷入混乱。本文来源“华尔街见闻”，作者高智谋，智通财经编辑：陈秋达。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1772,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":662406614,"gmtCreate":1666682712438,"gmtModify":1666683118021,"author":{"id":"3545539164867163","authorId":"3545539164867163","name":"黄船长","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3545539164867163","authorIdStr":"3545539164867163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"能说服自己吗","listText":"能说服自己吗","text":"能说服自己吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/662406614","repostId":"1103723610","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1103723610","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1666682275,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1103723610?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-10-25 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18:06</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>市场消息，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>输掉了在欧盟法院的反垄断诉讼，将支付28亿美元的罚金。</p>\n<p>据报道，谷歌可以对欧盟法院的裁决提起上诉。</p>\n<p>当地时间6月22日，欧盟委员会正式对谷歌公司的在线广告业务是否违反欧盟竞争规则展开调查。欧盟发起此项调查来评估谷歌是否通过技术手段偏袒谷歌自己的在线展示广告技术服务，从而打压竞争对手，损害竞争对手的出版商、广告商和广告技术服务。其中重点是调查谷歌是否限制第三方公司获取用户数据，同时将这类数据留给自己使用，从而扭曲了市场竞争。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8dde9999512476cf322e1c7f6fc80e8a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc2177e2e368b578bdaa674f65ce2424","relate_stocks":{"GOOG":"谷歌","GOOGL":"谷歌A"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122724769","content_text":"市场消息，谷歌输掉了在欧盟法院的反垄断诉讼，将支付28亿美元的罚金。\n据报道，谷歌可以对欧盟法院的裁决提起上诉。\n当地时间6月22日，欧盟委员会正式对谷歌公司的在线广告业务是否违反欧盟竞争规则展开调查。欧盟发起此项调查来评估谷歌是否通过技术手段偏袒谷歌自己的在线展示广告技术服务，从而打压竞争对手，损害竞争对手的出版商、广告商和广告技术服务。其中重点是调查谷歌是否限制第三方公司获取用户数据，同时将这类数据留给自己使用，从而扭曲了市场竞争。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOG":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3390,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":847545417,"gmtCreate":1636539482790,"gmtModify":1636539482790,"author":{"id":"3545539164867163","authorId":"3545539164867163","name":"黄船长","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3545539164867163","authorIdStr":"3545539164867163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"欧盟缺钱就罚fanmg","listText":"欧盟缺钱就罚fanmg","text":"欧盟缺钱就罚fanmg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/847545417","repostId":"1122724769","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1122724769","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1636538763,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122724769?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-10 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height=\"auto\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc2177e2e368b578bdaa674f65ce2424","relate_stocks":{"GOOG":"谷歌","GOOGL":"谷歌A"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122724769","content_text":"市场消息，谷歌输掉了在欧盟法院的反垄断诉讼，将支付28亿美元的罚金。\n据报道，谷歌可以对欧盟法院的裁决提起上诉。\n当地时间6月22日，欧盟委员会正式对谷歌公司的在线广告业务是否违反欧盟竞争规则展开调查。欧盟发起此项调查来评估谷歌是否通过技术手段偏袒谷歌自己的在线展示广告技术服务，从而打压竞争对手，损害竞争对手的出版商、广告商和广告技术服务。其中重点是调查谷歌是否限制第三方公司获取用户数据，同时将这类数据留给自己使用，从而扭曲了市场竞争。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOG":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3390,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":662406614,"gmtCreate":1666682712438,"gmtModify":1666683118021,"author":{"id":"3545539164867163","authorId":"3545539164867163","name":"黄船长","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3545539164867163","authorIdStr":"3545539164867163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"能说服自己吗","listText":"能说服自己吗","text":"能说服自己吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/662406614","repostId":"1103723610","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1103723610","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1666682275,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1103723610?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-10-25 15:17","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"段永平发声：又买了一点腾讯，虽然不知道发生了什么","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103723610","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"段永平曾在2月、3月、4月、8月四次抄底腾讯。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>段永平刚刚发声：又买了一点（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a>在美国挂牌的ADR），虽然不知道到底发生了什么。除了本月之外，段永平曾在2月、3月、4月、8月四次抄底腾讯。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/243ba928aede36427c2991e706678953\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>段永平发声：又买了一点腾讯，虽然不知道发生了什么</title>\n<style 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a>在美国挂牌的ADR），虽然不知道到底发生了什么。除了本月之外，段永平曾在2月、3月、4月、8月四次抄底腾讯。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/243ba928aede36427c2991e706678953\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7799eeb7043b8caaf3d109c3b13109e","relate_stocks":{"00700":"腾讯控股"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103723610","content_text":"段永平刚刚发声：又买了一点（腾讯控股在美国挂牌的ADR），虽然不知道到底发生了什么。除了本月之外，段永平曾在2月、3月、4月、8月四次抄底腾讯。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"00700":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2065,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":374390138237424,"gmtCreate":1732444311427,"gmtModify":1732444489368,"author":{"id":"3545539164867163","authorId":"3545539164867163","name":"黄船长","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3545539164867163","authorIdStr":"3545539164867163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"明白了，中国股市是☝️让跌的","listText":"明白了，中国股市是☝️让跌的","text":"明白了，中国股市是☝️让跌的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/374390138237424","repostId":"2485393087","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2485393087","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1732416591,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2485393087?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-11-24 10:49","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股上涨的核心逻辑：市场赌特朗普不会让股市跌！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2485393087","media":"智通财经网","summary":"美股市场预期，特朗普上台后将推出一系列利好政策，包括大幅降低企业税率、放松金融监管等措施，这进一步强化了“特朗普看跌期权”的市场影响力。","content":"<html><head></head><body><div> <p>目前，美股正上演一出由“特朗普看跌期权”推动的上涨行情。</p><p>周五，道琼斯工业指数上涨1%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>上涨0.3%，罗素2000指数上涨1.8%。本周，美股小盘股表现尤为亮眼，小盘股指数本周大涨4.5%。</p><p>Fundstrat分析师Thomas Lee认为，考虑到当选总统特朗普的放松监管计划以及当前美股市场普遍的“动物精神”，小盘股和周期性股票还有进一步上涨的空间。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/678fffe505b7cbd74444d923b58de208\"/></p><p><strong>所谓“特朗普看跌期权”，指的是市场普遍认为特朗普不会让股市大幅下跌的预期心理。</strong></p><p>见闻此前文章提及，这源于特朗普独特的执政风格：他非常关心标普走势，将股市表现视为执政成效的重要指标，每当标普指数出现大幅下跌，他都会迅速调整政策方向。</p><p>Bahnsen Group创始人David Bahnsen认为，特朗普对金融市场的重视源于其对曼哈顿金融精英阶层认可的渴望：</p><p>“他一直渴望融入曼哈顿金融精英圈，但却总觉得自己是局外人。”</p><p>因此，市场预期他上台后将推出一系列利好政策，包括大幅降低企业税率、放松金融监管等措施，这进一步强化了"特朗普看跌期权"的市场影响力。<strong>换言之，美股市场在“赌”特朗普绝不会容忍股市暴跌。</strong></p><p>“特朗普看跌期权”卷土重来？</p><p><strong>华尔街对特朗普回归抱持乐观态度，主要基于以下几点预期：</strong></p><p>第一，政策利好。市场预期特朗普将推出包括降低企业税率（从21%降至15%）、大幅放松管制（每出台一项新规则就取消10项旧规则）等利好政策。同时，他承诺上任第一天就将撤换美国证券交易委员会（SEC）主席根斯勒（Gary Gensler）。一些华尔街高管预计，在放松管制等举措推动下，银行业将迎来更多并购机会。</p><p>第二，个人特质。Bahnsen Group（管理资产650亿美元）的David Bahnsen认为，特朗普对金融市场的重视源于其对曼哈顿金融精英阶层认可的渴望。"他一生都感觉自己是曼哈顿的局外人，从未获得应得的认可和尊重。"这种心理特征，某种程度上成为市场的"安全垫"。</p><p>第三，政策温和预期。著名经济学家鲁比尼（"末日博士"）等人认为，特朗普对市场的重视，加上合适的顾问团队，可能会让其实际政策"更加温和"。</p><p><strong>然而，并非所有人都对“特朗普看跌期权”深信不疑。</strong> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCO\">穆迪</a>分析首席经济学家Mark Zandi警告称，市场过度乐观情绪正在将股价推得太高，可能会导致“清算日”的到来。一些专家担心，特朗普的大规模驱逐移民和巨额关税政策可能会对劳动力市场和经济造成负面影响。</p><p>此外，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>首席独立董事Tom Glocer提醒，特朗普反复无常的政治风格也可能引发市场波动，例如，如果他拒绝在第二任期结束后下台，市场可能会陷入混乱。</p><p><strong>本文来源“华尔街见闻”，作者高智谋，智通财经编辑：陈秋达。</strong></p> <div></div> </div></body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股上涨的核心逻辑：市场赌特朗普不会让股市跌！</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股上涨的核心逻辑：市场赌特朗普不会让股市跌！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-11-24 10:49 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1215029.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>目前，美股正上演一出由“特朗普看跌期权”推动的上涨行情。周五，道琼斯工业指数上涨1%，标普500上涨0.3%，罗素2000指数上涨1.8%。本周，美股小盘股表现尤为亮眼，小盘股指数本周大涨4.5%。Fundstrat分析师Thomas Lee认为，考虑到当选总统特朗普的放松监管计划以及当前美股市场普遍的“动物精神”，小盘股和周期性股票还有进一步上涨的空间。所谓“特朗普看跌期权”，指的是市场...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1215029.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c2105a0eed1dcec40b15a14748a1c48","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1215029.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2485393087","content_text":"目前，美股正上演一出由“特朗普看跌期权”推动的上涨行情。周五，道琼斯工业指数上涨1%，标普500上涨0.3%，罗素2000指数上涨1.8%。本周，美股小盘股表现尤为亮眼，小盘股指数本周大涨4.5%。Fundstrat分析师Thomas Lee认为，考虑到当选总统特朗普的放松监管计划以及当前美股市场普遍的“动物精神”，小盘股和周期性股票还有进一步上涨的空间。所谓“特朗普看跌期权”，指的是市场普遍认为特朗普不会让股市大幅下跌的预期心理。见闻此前文章提及，这源于特朗普独特的执政风格：他非常关心标普走势，将股市表现视为执政成效的重要指标，每当标普指数出现大幅下跌，他都会迅速调整政策方向。Bahnsen Group创始人David Bahnsen认为，特朗普对金融市场的重视源于其对曼哈顿金融精英阶层认可的渴望：“他一直渴望融入曼哈顿金融精英圈，但却总觉得自己是局外人。”因此，市场预期他上台后将推出一系列利好政策，包括大幅降低企业税率、放松金融监管等措施，这进一步强化了\"特朗普看跌期权\"的市场影响力。换言之，美股市场在“赌”特朗普绝不会容忍股市暴跌。“特朗普看跌期权”卷土重来？华尔街对特朗普回归抱持乐观态度，主要基于以下几点预期：第一，政策利好。市场预期特朗普将推出包括降低企业税率（从21%降至15%）、大幅放松管制（每出台一项新规则就取消10项旧规则）等利好政策。同时，他承诺上任第一天就将撤换美国证券交易委员会（SEC）主席根斯勒（Gary Gensler）。一些华尔街高管预计，在放松管制等举措推动下，银行业将迎来更多并购机会。第二，个人特质。Bahnsen Group（管理资产650亿美元）的David Bahnsen认为，特朗普对金融市场的重视源于其对曼哈顿金融精英阶层认可的渴望。\"他一生都感觉自己是曼哈顿的局外人，从未获得应得的认可和尊重。\"这种心理特征，某种程度上成为市场的\"安全垫\"。第三，政策温和预期。著名经济学家鲁比尼（\"末日博士\"）等人认为，特朗普对市场的重视，加上合适的顾问团队，可能会让其实际政策\"更加温和\"。然而，并非所有人都对“特朗普看跌期权”深信不疑。 穆迪分析首席经济学家Mark Zandi警告称，市场过度乐观情绪正在将股价推得太高，可能会导致“清算日”的到来。一些专家担心，特朗普的大规模驱逐移民和巨额关税政策可能会对劳动力市场和经济造成负面影响。此外，摩根士丹利首席独立董事Tom Glocer提醒，特朗普反复无常的政治风格也可能引发市场波动，例如，如果他拒绝在第二任期结束后下台，市场可能会陷入混乱。本文来源“华尔街见闻”，作者高智谋，智通财经编辑：陈秋达。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1772,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
