呜啦啦魔力圈的个人主页 - 老虎社区

呜啦啦魔力圈

呜啦啦魔力圈

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IP属地：北京

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呜啦啦魔力圈

2021-12-13

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看

@猛虎财经:2021年三季度财报合集（建议收藏）

呜啦啦魔力圈

2021-11-17

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看

@蕴翔财经:元宇宙深度163页报告：元宇宙的未来猜想和投资机遇分析（建议收藏！）

呜啦啦魔力圈

2021-09-10

你应该说段永平，那才是真的猛，不仅是搞投资，干事业，做生意也是6的一批。

抱歉，原内容已删除

呜啦啦魔力圈

2021-05-21

厉害是真厉害的。别把上面都想的很差

抱歉，原内容已删除

呜啦啦魔力圈

2021-05-07

已经穷了

抱歉，原内容已删除

呜啦啦魔力圈

2021-03-01

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看

@小虎AV: 【木头姐如何看待当前大盘风险？|In the Know第13期】周末ARK Invest创始人木头姐进行了YouTube直播，Cathie Wood谈到了市场担忧，包括利率上升、比特币、市场流动性、通货膨胀与通货紧缩以及金融体系的影响。与往常一样，她也在财政政策、货币政策、市场信号、经济指标等问题上发表意见。$比特币基金(GBTC)$ $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$

呜啦啦魔力圈

2021-03-01

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看

@交易员Owen:为什么这次跳水不简单，深入聊聊美债，美股和通胀的关系

呜啦啦魔力圈

2021-03-01

$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$ 能不能跌啊，跌下去给个机会跑路。

呜啦啦魔力圈

2021-02-27

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$又上去了，下不来，好猛

呜啦啦魔力圈

2021-02-23

$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$ 反弹的真的快。

呜啦啦魔力圈

2021-01-30

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看

@景辰财经:华尔街公然不要脸，海航破产，薇娅做私募，乱了，都乱了……

呜啦啦魔力圈

2021-01-26

$游戏驿站(GME)$真特么的刺激嗷，这赌命吧。

呜啦啦魔力圈

2021-01-22

我就是零跑的，哈哈哈哈哈。我不能说太多，准备跳了。

抱歉，原内容已删除

呜啦啦魔力圈

2020-09-18

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看

@米了1122:你们知道雷军有多可爱吗？

呜啦啦魔力圈

2020-06-27

$标普500ETF(SPY)$阻力位300。破了就有好戏看

呜啦啦魔力圈

2020-06-23

$道琼斯指数主连(YMmain)$ 吃了春药了，纳指更是猛，空头真是死的渣都不剩。唉

呜啦啦魔力圈

2020-06-23

$道琼斯指数主连(YMmain)$ 韭菜割完了，又拉上去了。。。。。

呜啦啦魔力圈

2020-06-23

$道琼斯指数主连(YMmain)$ 怎么突然就泄了，早上该涨的好好的

呜啦啦魔力圈

2020-06-23

$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$ 突然就下去了？我靠

呜啦啦魔力圈

2020-06-19

我何时才能像他们这么有钱

达利欧警告：股市可能迎来“失去的十年”

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/605123832\" target=\"_blank\">老虎社区最受欢迎虎友评选开始啦，快来为他打call！</a>苹果<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/849701995\" target=\"_blank\">苹果2021年Q4财报不及预期？苹果仍然交出了一份满意的答卷！</a>随着 iPhone 进入“多年升级周期”，在全球推动 5G 普及和老化的安装基础的支持下， 需求的强劲势头预计将持续到长期。特别是iPhone 13系列发布，“加量降价”或者，在国产机不断涨价，售价不断创新高。苹果反其道而行之，走性价比路线，显得十分良心。据报道，iPhone 13系列仅五天国内的订单目前已经超过了500万台，火爆程度可想而知。值得注意的是，苹果13系列是9月24号发布，所以iPhone 13系列在四季度财报只卖了一周，但是，苹果来自的iPhone仍然增长了47%至388.7亿美元。这是一家蓬勃发展的科技","listText":"摘要：2021年三季度财报已经接近尾声，目前详细分析苹果、特斯拉、腾讯、谷歌、Facebook、、奈飞、美团、蔚来、小鹏、理想等公司的财报以及前瞻。其中大部分公司都是非常优秀且值得大家持续关注的公司，但是其中一些特别优秀的公司。因个人能力有限，目前我没有太多的精力去分析，比如：AMD，英伟达、高通、SE等这些优秀的公司。我后续会陆续分析更多优秀的公司财报，欢迎大家关注。在这里我整理出来一个2021年三季度财报合集，方便大家随时浏览，建议收藏。很荣幸入选2021年度“老虎社区最受欢迎虎友评选开始啦，快来为他打call！”活动。感谢平台和社区朋友们的支持，更多的成长股发掘和财报分析，欢迎关注美股发掘。希望大家投我一票，你的点赞就是我坚持发掘成长股的动力！目前投票通道已经开启。点击话题开始投票！投票地址：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/605123832\" target=\"_blank\">老虎社区最受欢迎虎友评选开始啦，快来为他打call！</a>苹果<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/849701995\" target=\"_blank\">苹果2021年Q4财报不及预期？苹果仍然交出了一份满意的答卷！</a>随着 iPhone 进入“多年升级周期”，在全球推动 5G 普及和老化的安装基础的支持下， 需求的强劲势头预计将持续到长期。特别是iPhone 13系列发布，“加量降价”或者，在国产机不断涨价，售价不断创新高。苹果反其道而行之，走性价比路线，显得十分良心。据报道，iPhone 13系列仅五天国内的订单目前已经超过了500万台，火爆程度可想而知。值得注意的是，苹果13系列是9月24号发布，所以iPhone 13系列在四季度财报只卖了一周，但是，苹果来自的iPhone仍然增长了47%至388.7亿美元。这是一家蓬勃发展的科技","text":"摘要：2021年三季度财报已经接近尾声，目前详细分析苹果、特斯拉、腾讯、谷歌、Facebook、、奈飞、美团、蔚来、小鹏、理想等公司的财报以及前瞻。其中大部分公司都是非常优秀且值得大家持续关注的公司，但是其中一些特别优秀的公司。因个人能力有限，目前我没有太多的精力去分析，比如：AMD，英伟达、高通、SE等这些优秀的公司。我后续会陆续分析更多优秀的公司财报，欢迎大家关注。在这里我整理出来一个2021年三季度财报合集，方便大家随时浏览，建议收藏。很荣幸入选2021年度“老虎社区最受欢迎虎友评选开始啦，快来为他打call！”活动。感谢平台和社区朋友们的支持，更多的成长股发掘和财报分析，欢迎关注美股发掘。希望大家投我一票，你的点赞就是我坚持发掘成长股的动力！目前投票通道已经开启。点击话题开始投票！投票地址：老虎社区最受欢迎虎友评选开始啦，快来为他打call！苹果苹果2021年Q4财报不及预期？苹果仍然交出了一份满意的答卷！随着 iPhone 进入“多年升级周期”，在全球推动 5G 普及和老化的安装基础的支持下， 需求的强劲势头预计将持续到长期。特别是iPhone 13系列发布，“加量降价”或者，在国产机不断涨价，售价不断创新高。苹果反其道而行之，走性价比路线，显得十分良心。据报道，iPhone 13系列仅五天国内的订单目前已经超过了500万台，火爆程度可想而知。值得注意的是，苹果13系列是9月24号发布，所以iPhone 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市场热点：Facebook改名Meta，全面转向元宇宙Meta(Facebook)年内持续推动元宇宙热度Meta(Facebook)在这轮元宇宙热度提升中起到了重要作用，Meta(Facebook) 明确提出元宇宙愿景，扎克伯格在VR Workrooms中接受采访。7月，扎克伯格 在等多个场合表示，预计其未来几年，Facebook将从一家社交媒体公司转变为 元宇宙公司。扎克伯格将Metaverse描绘为可以置身其中的实体互联网，可以 体会到在2D应用或者网页未必能获得的体验。市场热点：Facebook改名Meta，全面转向元宇宙10月28日，扎克伯格在Facebook Connect会议上宣布Facebook改名Meta，并 将从12月1日起以新的股票代码MVRS进行交易，同时表示公司将以元宇宙为 先，而不是以Facebook为先。同时会议上也宣布，Meta旗下VR/AR相关产品将于2022年年初开始，从 Oculus Quest from Facebook转向Meta Quest，以及从Oculus App转向Meta Quest App，逐步从Oculus品牌过渡到Meta品牌。元宇宙热点回顾：Roblox上市2021年3月，Roblox在美股上市，明确提出打造元宇宙，Roblox上市后股价表 现走势较好，市值迅速超越美国老牌游戏公司EA，位居美股游戏公司第二。按 2021/10/28日收盘价，Roblox市值为476亿美元。2021年4月，全球领先的3D引擎技术商Epic Games完成10亿美元融资，投后估值287亿 美元，公司宣布融资将主要用于公司发展及元宇宙相关的开发。Epic Games旗下全球爆 款游戏《堡垒之夜》举办广受好评的虚拟演唱会。2021年8月，BAYC、Axie Infinity等NFT领域的事件开始破圈，市场开始关注NFT相关的 应用。2","listText":"1. 市场热点：Facebook改名Meta，全面转向元宇宙Meta(Facebook)年内持续推动元宇宙热度Meta(Facebook)在这轮元宇宙热度提升中起到了重要作用，Meta(Facebook) 明确提出元宇宙愿景，扎克伯格在VR Workrooms中接受采访。7月，扎克伯格 在等多个场合表示，预计其未来几年，Facebook将从一家社交媒体公司转变为 元宇宙公司。扎克伯格将Metaverse描绘为可以置身其中的实体互联网，可以 体会到在2D应用或者网页未必能获得的体验。市场热点：Facebook改名Meta，全面转向元宇宙10月28日，扎克伯格在Facebook Connect会议上宣布Facebook改名Meta，并 将从12月1日起以新的股票代码MVRS进行交易，同时表示公司将以元宇宙为 先，而不是以Facebook为先。同时会议上也宣布，Meta旗下VR/AR相关产品将于2022年年初开始，从 Oculus Quest from Facebook转向Meta Quest，以及从Oculus App转向Meta Quest App，逐步从Oculus品牌过渡到Meta品牌。元宇宙热点回顾：Roblox上市2021年3月，Roblox在美股上市，明确提出打造元宇宙，Roblox上市后股价表 现走势较好，市值迅速超越美国老牌游戏公司EA，位居美股游戏公司第二。按 2021/10/28日收盘价，Roblox市值为476亿美元。2021年4月，全球领先的3D引擎技术商Epic Games完成10亿美元融资，投后估值287亿 美元，公司宣布融资将主要用于公司发展及元宇宙相关的开发。Epic Games旗下全球爆 款游戏《堡垒之夜》举办广受好评的虚拟演唱会。2021年8月，BAYC、Axie Infinity等NFT领域的事件开始破圈，市场开始关注NFT相关的 应用。2","text":"1. 市场热点：Facebook改名Meta，全面转向元宇宙Meta(Facebook)年内持续推动元宇宙热度Meta(Facebook)在这轮元宇宙热度提升中起到了重要作用，Meta(Facebook) 明确提出元宇宙愿景，扎克伯格在VR Workrooms中接受采访。7月，扎克伯格 在等多个场合表示，预计其未来几年，Facebook将从一家社交媒体公司转变为 元宇宙公司。扎克伯格将Metaverse描绘为可以置身其中的实体互联网，可以 体会到在2D应用或者网页未必能获得的体验。市场热点：Facebook改名Meta，全面转向元宇宙10月28日，扎克伯格在Facebook Connect会议上宣布Facebook改名Meta，并 将从12月1日起以新的股票代码MVRS进行交易，同时表示公司将以元宇宙为 先，而不是以Facebook为先。同时会议上也宣布，Meta旗下VR/AR相关产品将于2022年年初开始，从 Oculus Quest from Facebook转向Meta Quest，以及从Oculus App转向Meta Quest App，逐步从Oculus品牌过渡到Meta品牌。元宇宙热点回顾：Roblox上市2021年3月，Roblox在美股上市，明确提出打造元宇宙，Roblox上市后股价表 现走势较好，市值迅速超越美国老牌游戏公司EA，位居美股游戏公司第二。按 2021/10/28日收盘价，Roblox市值为476亿美元。2021年4月，全球领先的3D引擎技术商Epic Games完成10亿美元融资，投后估值287亿 美元，公司宣布融资将主要用于公司发展及元宇宙相关的开发。Epic Games旗下全球爆 款游戏《堡垒之夜》举办广受好评的虚拟演唱会。2021年8月，BAYC、Axie Infinity等NFT领域的事件开始破圈，市场开始关注NFT相关的 应用。2","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b887283300691a9920b54c9d94d4ad5c","width":"640","height":"360"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64edcb72aef50730dd541708f3901ee9","width":"640","height":"480"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0780d4cf6d778e9d01fdd3998f75851","width":"640","height":"480"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/847524495","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":70,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3495,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":883501630,"gmtCreate":1631250446920,"gmtModify":1631250446920,"author":{"id":"3546751766912236","authorId":"3546751766912236","name":"呜啦啦魔力圈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acd6061c79baa7d499e7c9d857f63118","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3546751766912236","authorIdStr":"3546751766912236"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"你应该说段永平，那才是真的猛，不仅是搞投资，干事业，做生意也是6的一批。","listText":"你应该说段永平，那才是真的猛，不仅是搞投资，干事业，做生意也是6的一批。","text":"你应该说段永平，那才是真的猛，不仅是搞投资，干事业，做生意也是6的一批。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/883501630","repostId":"1104518781","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3637,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":130696198,"gmtCreate":1621528680514,"gmtModify":1621528680514,"author":{"id":"3546751766912236","authorId":"3546751766912236","name":"呜啦啦魔力圈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acd6061c79baa7d499e7c9d857f63118","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3546751766912236","authorIdStr":"3546751766912236"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"厉害是真厉害的。别把上面都想的很差","listText":"厉害是真厉害的。别把上面都想的很差","text":"厉害是真厉害的。别把上面都想的很差","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/130696198","repostId":"1147514502","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3661,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":104162387,"gmtCreate":1620364862849,"gmtModify":1620364862849,"author":{"id":"3546751766912236","authorId":"3546751766912236","name":"呜啦啦魔力圈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acd6061c79baa7d499e7c9d857f63118","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3546751766912236","authorIdStr":"3546751766912236"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"已经穷了","listText":"已经穷了","text":"已经穷了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/104162387","repostId":"1115152315","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2779,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":362830087,"gmtCreate":1614611327349,"gmtModify":1703478887864,"author":{"id":"3546751766912236","authorId":"3546751766912236","name":"呜啦啦魔力圈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acd6061c79baa7d499e7c9d857f63118","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3546751766912236","authorIdStr":"3546751766912236"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/362830087","repostId":"362906375","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":362906375,"gmtCreate":1614582448395,"gmtModify":1703478444381,"author":{"id":"3514329116425907","authorId":"3514329116425907","name":"小虎AV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/162e12f8dcec770ec19f66f2abb0d5db","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3514329116425907","authorIdStr":"3514329116425907"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"\n \n \n  【木头姐如何看待当前大盘风险？|In the Know第13期】周末ARK Invest创始人木头姐进行了YouTube直播，Cathie Wood谈到了市场担忧，包括利率上升、比特币、市场流动性、通货膨胀与通货紧缩以及金融体系的影响。与往常一样，她也在财政政策、货币政策、市场信号、经济指标等问题上发表意见。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GBTC\">$比特币基金(GBTC)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>\n \n","listText":"【木头姐如何看待当前大盘风险？|In the Know第13期】周末ARK Invest创始人木头姐进行了YouTube直播，Cathie Wood谈到了市场担忧，包括利率上升、比特币、市场流动性、通货膨胀与通货紧缩以及金融体系的影响。与往常一样，她也在财政政策、货币政策、市场信号、经济指标等问题上发表意见。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GBTC\">$比特币基金(GBTC)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>","text":"【木头姐如何看待当前大盘风险？|In the Know第13期】周末ARK Invest创始人木头姐进行了YouTube直播，Cathie Wood谈到了市场担忧，包括利率上升、比特币、市场流动性、通货膨胀与通货紧缩以及金融体系的影响。与往常一样，她也在财政政策、货币政策、市场信号、经济指标等问题上发表意见。$比特币基金(GBTC)$ $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/362906375","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"5845e30184dd41d39fc751fb56de24e2","tweetId":"362906375","videoUrl":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/e2ad4227vodcq1254107296/32ccad1c5285890814874671983/f0.mp4","poster":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e78faf6bec030ca469e2db05ebf34a8"},"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3036,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":366753688,"gmtCreate":1614566156144,"gmtModify":1703478259170,"author":{"id":"3546751766912236","authorId":"3546751766912236","name":"呜啦啦魔力圈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acd6061c79baa7d499e7c9d857f63118","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3546751766912236","authorIdStr":"3546751766912236"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366753688","repostId":"368545133","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":368545133,"gmtCreate":1614342217720,"gmtModify":1703476627398,"author":{"id":"3491416357875149","authorId":"3491416357875149","name":"交易员Owen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e18f8a3a764631dcc921c6316d840259","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3491416357875149","authorIdStr":"3491416357875149"},"themes":[],"title":"为什么这次跳水不简单，深入聊聊美债，美股和通胀的关系","htmlText":"快速而猛烈的下跌，乃至于触发熔断，然后花上几个月的时间修复，这样灾难性的暴跌我们一般叫崩盘，股灾啥的，在当下的市场环境下，这个可能性我们都知道不大。 但如果说一场调整，持续2到3个月，每天涨涨跌跌，总体上跌的要比涨的多，甚至像本周这样连续的大跌反复出现，几个月下来，你的收益会少于周期开始的时候，这样的市场阶段我们怎么定义呢？不是股灾也不是崩盘，那就是中长期震荡回调期。 当10年美债利率攀升到1.5%以后，如果持续向上，美股会不会进入一个赚钱选股都相对更难的长期回调时期呢？所以这点上，我们得小心。避险的意识必须要有。 这次分享，我就主要聊一下，为什么这次美股大跌不能当成一次简单的回调看待。这次跳水不简单。 其实关于美债利率对美股的影响，我在年初大选的时候就已经开始预警了。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/338364255\" target=\"_blank\">相比强烈的通胀预期，美股的开年黑其实算不了什么</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/336057536\" target=\"_blank\">国会遭受冲击，最重要的是这个变动</a> 只是点位上，我预测10年美债收益率到1%的时候会出现美股的小调整，但没想到市场的风险情绪在拜登上台和民主党统一国会和白宫后，被短时间激发，疫情的负面影响也到了后期，在1个多月时间里美股连创新高，没有对1%的美债收益做任何反应，美股的估值也是在那个时候被悄悄拉大。 我们看一下标普的席勒市盈率走势，在今年年初是34.8倍。这个只是表面上的间接估值法的一个结果。 实际上你要这么看，这相当于，我们用大约35单位的价格购得了1单位的每股盈利。那么1/35得到的以标普每股盈利为收益的收益率为2.5%多。 那为什么说这个估值是在被拉高？我们得看下平准通胀率，也就是长期市场对未来的通胀率的预测。10","listText":"快速而猛烈的下跌，乃至于触发熔断，然后花上几个月的时间修复，这样灾难性的暴跌我们一般叫崩盘，股灾啥的，在当下的市场环境下，这个可能性我们都知道不大。 但如果说一场调整，持续2到3个月，每天涨涨跌跌，总体上跌的要比涨的多，甚至像本周这样连续的大跌反复出现，几个月下来，你的收益会少于周期开始的时候，这样的市场阶段我们怎么定义呢？不是股灾也不是崩盘，那就是中长期震荡回调期。 当10年美债利率攀升到1.5%以后，如果持续向上，美股会不会进入一个赚钱选股都相对更难的长期回调时期呢？所以这点上，我们得小心。避险的意识必须要有。 这次分享，我就主要聊一下，为什么这次美股大跌不能当成一次简单的回调看待。这次跳水不简单。 其实关于美债利率对美股的影响，我在年初大选的时候就已经开始预警了。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/338364255\" target=\"_blank\">相比强烈的通胀预期，美股的开年黑其实算不了什么</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/336057536\" target=\"_blank\">国会遭受冲击，最重要的是这个变动</a> 只是点位上，我预测10年美债收益率到1%的时候会出现美股的小调整，但没想到市场的风险情绪在拜登上台和民主党统一国会和白宫后，被短时间激发，疫情的负面影响也到了后期，在1个多月时间里美股连创新高，没有对1%的美债收益做任何反应，美股的估值也是在那个时候被悄悄拉大。 我们看一下标普的席勒市盈率走势，在今年年初是34.8倍。这个只是表面上的间接估值法的一个结果。 实际上你要这么看，这相当于，我们用大约35单位的价格购得了1单位的每股盈利。那么1/35得到的以标普每股盈利为收益的收益率为2.5%多。 那为什么说这个估值是在被拉高？我们得看下平准通胀率，也就是长期市场对未来的通胀率的预测。10","text":"快速而猛烈的下跌，乃至于触发熔断，然后花上几个月的时间修复，这样灾难性的暴跌我们一般叫崩盘，股灾啥的，在当下的市场环境下，这个可能性我们都知道不大。 但如果说一场调整，持续2到3个月，每天涨涨跌跌，总体上跌的要比涨的多，甚至像本周这样连续的大跌反复出现，几个月下来，你的收益会少于周期开始的时候，这样的市场阶段我们怎么定义呢？不是股灾也不是崩盘，那就是中长期震荡回调期。 当10年美债利率攀升到1.5%以后，如果持续向上，美股会不会进入一个赚钱选股都相对更难的长期回调时期呢？所以这点上，我们得小心。避险的意识必须要有。 这次分享，我就主要聊一下，为什么这次美股大跌不能当成一次简单的回调看待。这次跳水不简单。 其实关于美债利率对美股的影响，我在年初大选的时候就已经开始预警了。 相比强烈的通胀预期，美股的开年黑其实算不了什么 国会遭受冲击，最重要的是这个变动 只是点位上，我预测10年美债收益率到1%的时候会出现美股的小调整，但没想到市场的风险情绪在拜登上台和民主党统一国会和白宫后，被短时间激发，疫情的负面影响也到了后期，在1个多月时间里美股连创新高，没有对1%的美债收益做任何反应，美股的估值也是在那个时候被悄悄拉大。 我们看一下标普的席勒市盈率走势，在今年年初是34.8倍。这个只是表面上的间接估值法的一个结果。 实际上你要这么看，这相当于，我们用大约35单位的价格购得了1单位的每股盈利。那么1/35得到的以标普每股盈利为收益的收益率为2.5%多。 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反弹的真的快。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363384525","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3013,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":312083652,"gmtCreate":1611973328676,"gmtModify":1703757210868,"author":{"id":"3546751766912236","authorId":"3546751766912236","name":"呜啦啦魔力圈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acd6061c79baa7d499e7c9d857f63118","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3546751766912236","authorIdStr":"3546751766912236"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/312083652","repostId":"316292508","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":316292508,"gmtCreate":1611932809704,"gmtModify":1744801691258,"author":{"id":"3483341938884489","authorId":"3483341938884489","name":"景辰财经","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/a5e89e6e34155c91e69a7cead5a72e85","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3483341938884489","authorIdStr":"3483341938884489"},"themes":[],"title":"华尔街公然不要脸，海航破产，薇娅做私募，乱了，都乱了……","htmlText":"最近的市场，只有一个主题：乱拳打死老师傅。没有人能在最近的市场中独善其身，散户不行、机构也不行。不过好在终于可以获得一丝喘息的机会，今天是周五，一周终于结束了。市场在周一冲高之后，在周二就开启了跌、跌、跌的模式，一直跌到周五下午的两点半，市场在国债逆回购利率肉眼可见的暴跌之下，今天下午，“神奇的两点半”再次出现，在下午2:30分准时开启了“小深V”反弹！这个周大家账户上估计都不好受，有没有在2:30之前深坑割肉的兄弟？来，说出来，安慰一下大家低沉的心情。这种行情我预计不会太长了，再这样下去，因为行情问题，会引发广大新手基民大量赎回基金，到时候将会导致基金被动建仓，那么很多之前机构的重仓股将会不断出现抛压，而由此也将引发基金净值一路走低，基民将会出现恐慌……如此，恶性循环将会出现，搞不好将会是一场灾难！但是，这并不是上峰想看到的结果，那么下一步上峰是否将会有动作来挺起市场撑起大盘，就变得非常关键。其实，这一征兆已经到来。针对于之前市场流动性风险的问题，今天上午有传言称央行将会SLF利率，这也直接引发了市场的恐慌，开始一路下跌。先给读者科普一下SLF利率，全称是常备借贷便利利率，这是全球多数央行都设立的货币政策工具，但是名称各不相同，美联储叫做贴现窗口、欧洲央行叫做边际贷款便利、英格兰银行叫做操作性常备便利、日本银行叫做补充贷款便利、加拿大央行叫做常备流动性便利。听起来大家就能明白了，这玩意其实就是和贷款有关。简单来说，如果SLF利率上调，那么就意味着央行货币政策开始紧缩，增加了资金获取成本，从而会抑制进入股市的资金规模，利空证券市场。不过，央行果断辟谣，并称将会向公安机关报案：这也就意味着央行自己出面做出了澄清：短期内将不会上调SLF利率，这对于提振近期市场情绪，绝对是利好！当然，也有网友扒出央行2019年“出尔反尔”的证据。2019年8月7日，央行就不实的降准消息向公安机关","listText":"最近的市场，只有一个主题：乱拳打死老师傅。没有人能在最近的市场中独善其身，散户不行、机构也不行。不过好在终于可以获得一丝喘息的机会，今天是周五，一周终于结束了。市场在周一冲高之后，在周二就开启了跌、跌、跌的模式，一直跌到周五下午的两点半，市场在国债逆回购利率肉眼可见的暴跌之下，今天下午，“神奇的两点半”再次出现，在下午2:30分准时开启了“小深V”反弹！这个周大家账户上估计都不好受，有没有在2:30之前深坑割肉的兄弟？来，说出来，安慰一下大家低沉的心情。这种行情我预计不会太长了，再这样下去，因为行情问题，会引发广大新手基民大量赎回基金，到时候将会导致基金被动建仓，那么很多之前机构的重仓股将会不断出现抛压，而由此也将引发基金净值一路走低，基民将会出现恐慌……如此，恶性循环将会出现，搞不好将会是一场灾难！但是，这并不是上峰想看到的结果，那么下一步上峰是否将会有动作来挺起市场撑起大盘，就变得非常关键。其实，这一征兆已经到来。针对于之前市场流动性风险的问题，今天上午有传言称央行将会SLF利率，这也直接引发了市场的恐慌，开始一路下跌。先给读者科普一下SLF利率，全称是常备借贷便利利率，这是全球多数央行都设立的货币政策工具，但是名称各不相同，美联储叫做贴现窗口、欧洲央行叫做边际贷款便利、英格兰银行叫做操作性常备便利、日本银行叫做补充贷款便利、加拿大央行叫做常备流动性便利。听起来大家就能明白了，这玩意其实就是和贷款有关。简单来说，如果SLF利率上调，那么就意味着央行货币政策开始紧缩，增加了资金获取成本，从而会抑制进入股市的资金规模，利空证券市场。不过，央行果断辟谣，并称将会向公安机关报案：这也就意味着央行自己出面做出了澄清：短期内将不会上调SLF利率，这对于提振近期市场情绪，绝对是利好！当然，也有网友扒出央行2019年“出尔反尔”的证据。2019年8月7日，央行就不实的降准消息向公安机关","text":"最近的市场，只有一个主题：乱拳打死老师傅。没有人能在最近的市场中独善其身，散户不行、机构也不行。不过好在终于可以获得一丝喘息的机会，今天是周五，一周终于结束了。市场在周一冲高之后，在周二就开启了跌、跌、跌的模式，一直跌到周五下午的两点半，市场在国债逆回购利率肉眼可见的暴跌之下，今天下午，“神奇的两点半”再次出现，在下午2:30分准时开启了“小深V”反弹！这个周大家账户上估计都不好受，有没有在2:30之前深坑割肉的兄弟？来，说出来，安慰一下大家低沉的心情。这种行情我预计不会太长了，再这样下去，因为行情问题，会引发广大新手基民大量赎回基金，到时候将会导致基金被动建仓，那么很多之前机构的重仓股将会不断出现抛压，而由此也将引发基金净值一路走低，基民将会出现恐慌……如此，恶性循环将会出现，搞不好将会是一场灾难！但是，这并不是上峰想看到的结果，那么下一步上峰是否将会有动作来挺起市场撑起大盘，就变得非常关键。其实，这一征兆已经到来。针对于之前市场流动性风险的问题，今天上午有传言称央行将会SLF利率，这也直接引发了市场的恐慌，开始一路下跌。先给读者科普一下SLF利率，全称是常备借贷便利利率，这是全球多数央行都设立的货币政策工具，但是名称各不相同，美联储叫做贴现窗口、欧洲央行叫做边际贷款便利、英格兰银行叫做操作性常备便利、日本银行叫做补充贷款便利、加拿大央行叫做常备流动性便利。听起来大家就能明白了，这玩意其实就是和贷款有关。简单来说，如果SLF利率上调，那么就意味着央行货币政策开始紧缩，增加了资金获取成本，从而会抑制进入股市的资金规模，利空证券市场。不过，央行果断辟谣，并称将会向公安机关报案：这也就意味着央行自己出面做出了澄清：短期内将不会上调SLF利率，这对于提振近期市场情绪，绝对是利好！当然，也有网友扒出央行2019年“出尔反尔”的证据。2019年8月7日，央行就不实的降准消息向公安机关","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63c9e261d9276704b0c17c02938284f9","width":"726","height":"413"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7052fdd517acb63e957833a038d75a0","width":"1080","height":"493"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c1d0725b6b07d7b319991aed493ca17","width":"1080","height":"508"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/316292508","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"comments":[],"imageCount":10,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1949,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":319571225,"gmtCreate":1611591400367,"gmtModify":1703751471805,"author":{"id":"3546751766912236","authorId":"3546751766912236","name":"呜啦啦魔力圈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acd6061c79baa7d499e7c9d857f63118","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3546751766912236","authorIdStr":"3546751766912236"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$游戏驿站(GME)$</a>真特么的刺激嗷，这赌命吧。","text":"$游戏驿站(GME)$真特么的刺激嗷，这赌命吧。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/319571225","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1781,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":310117144,"gmtCreate":1611283516288,"gmtModify":1703749413890,"author":{"id":"3546751766912236","authorId":"3546751766912236","name":"呜啦啦魔力圈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acd6061c79baa7d499e7c9d857f63118","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3546751766912236","authorIdStr":"3546751766912236"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我就是零跑的，哈哈哈哈哈。我不能说太多，准备跳了。","listText":"我就是零跑的，哈哈哈哈哈。我不能说太多，准备跳了。","text":"我就是零跑的，哈哈哈哈哈。我不能说太多，准备跳了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/310117144","repostId":"2105168450","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1749,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":975018922,"gmtCreate":1600363925166,"gmtModify":1703821410662,"author":{"id":"3546751766912236","authorId":"3546751766912236","name":"呜啦啦魔力圈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acd6061c79baa7d499e7c9d857f63118","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3546751766912236","authorIdStr":"3546751766912236"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/975018922","repostId":"951821446","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":951821446,"gmtCreate":1590738345279,"gmtModify":1704193570517,"author":{"id":"3440472336351816","authorId":"3440472336351816","name":"米了1122","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/387d245e716d203527bbbe3c5e0a2b10","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3440472336351816","authorIdStr":"3440472336351816"},"themes":[],"title":"你们知道雷军有多可爱吗？","htmlText":"这篇文章我从某乎上，关于讨论“为什么很多人觉得雷军的形象亲民？”的帖子给大家拔下来的。 出自知乎&nbsp;零零&nbsp;&nbsp;和匿名用户： 提问：为什么很多人觉得雷军的形象亲民？ 作者：零零 答：因为雷军是一个很有趣的人（多图预警） 喜欢唱歌 喜欢跳舞 喜欢自拍 还喜欢穿各种好（qi）看（guai）的衣服 没事飙飙车 吹吹牛（其实真的就是这么牛逼） 再指导一下美女程序员（嘿嘿搓衣板是什么？） 爱在工作的时候记录生活（手动狗头） 被抓包了吧 （我没有自拍！） 再皮一下嘿嘿 虽然是个有几百亿的孩子但还是要自己煮方便面（是超豪华的！我超厉害！） 自己坐飞机 出去兼职做模特 还要办个演唱会 自己黑自己，让别人无处可黑 有可爱的口音和酒窝 魔hua换天 魔法饭天 魔hua饭天_(:з」∠)_ 和董小姐生生气 哦不好意思放错了 是这个 时而憨憨微笑 时而帅到爆炸 还有高的 矮的 胖的 和更胖的( °◅° ) 笑眯眯的 高冷的 Q弹的（嗯？） 你就说吧，我兄弟雷军他好不好玩？ 某匿名用户： 深夜，他在群里发了一张搞笑图片…没人回复。 于是…他用红包把大伙炸了出来 ‍♂️ 哈哈&nbsp;&nbsp;不知道看完的你笑没笑。 不管你喜欢小米还是厌恶小米，但我想谁都不会讨厌雷军这个人吧。 雷军的财富可以比肩双马、王健林。但他既没有双马给人的那种遥不可及的距离感，又没有王健林的那种令人生畏的自傲感。 雷军就像你住在你家隔壁，跟你一起朝九晚五的大哥；又或者是一位搞笑的怪叔叔，又或者是一位和蔼的大爷。 总之，他本不属于我们这个阶层的人物，但他会让你感觉到，他就和你在一起。 这样一个乐观、开朗又积极向上的企业家，一定会创造出一个伟大的企业。小米已经统治了印度市场，不久前，又攻陷了欧洲市场，目前还在进攻日本市场。 由于华为被封印了，那么我觉得未来，小米成为了最可能打败三星的手机品牌，成为销量数","listText":"这篇文章我从某乎上，关于讨论“为什么很多人觉得雷军的形象亲民？”的帖子给大家拔下来的。 出自知乎&nbsp;零零&nbsp;&nbsp;和匿名用户： 提问：为什么很多人觉得雷军的形象亲民？ 作者：零零 答：因为雷军是一个很有趣的人（多图预警） 喜欢唱歌 喜欢跳舞 喜欢自拍 还喜欢穿各种好（qi）看（guai）的衣服 没事飙飙车 吹吹牛（其实真的就是这么牛逼） 再指导一下美女程序员（嘿嘿搓衣板是什么？） 爱在工作的时候记录生活（手动狗头） 被抓包了吧 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突然就下去了？我靠","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/954864038","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1907,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":955798922,"gmtCreate":1592540913766,"gmtModify":1704199666134,"author":{"id":"3546751766912236","authorId":"3546751766912236","name":"呜啦啦魔力圈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acd6061c79baa7d499e7c9d857f63118","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3546751766912236","authorIdStr":"3546751766912236"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我何时才能像他们这么有钱","listText":"我何时才能像他们这么有钱","text":"我何时才能像他们这么有钱","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/955798922","repostId":"1130263417","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130263417","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1592530802,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1130263417?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-06-19 09:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"达利欧警告：股市可能迎来“失去的十年”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130263417","media":"Wind万得","summary":"2020年以来，美联储支持美股自3月底反弹，但全球最大对冲基金“桥水基金”资产却缩水近15%。其创始人瑞达里奥在最近写给桥水基金投资者的一封信中警告说，美国公司利润率多年来的强劲增长将出现逆转，可能会","content":"<p>2020年以来，美联储支持美股自3月底反弹，但全球最大对冲基金“桥水基金”资产却缩水近15%。其创始人瑞达里奥在最近写给桥水基金投资者的一封信中警告说，美国公司利润率多年来的强劲增长将出现逆转，可能会给股票投资者带来“失去的十年”。</p><p>在这封信件中，桥水基金(Bridgewater)的分析师写道，股票相对于现金的超额回报中很大一部分来自利润率。但受到当前美股公司收益周期性下滑的影响，未来超额回报或面临转变。他们比较了标普的利润率(一直处于高水平)与真实的企业利润(如高盛下图所示)，甚至在冠状病毒大流行爆发之前，真实的企业利润就已跌至10年来的低点。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61cde2add2fcb30d89bbdd8c1bb69bce\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"458\"></p><p>桥水基金在信中指出:“在过去几十年里，全球化或许是发达国家盈利的最大推动力，但它已经达到了顶峰——国际对峙和全球流行病进一步加速了跨国公司回流和在国内重建供应链的步伐，这些跨国企业变得更注重可靠性，而不仅仅是成本优化。”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/881475f0a052c5443419f9b1567b94d2\" tg-width=\"579\" tg-height=\"582\"></p><p>分析师们还说，最近几周，由于大流行导致的需求崩溃已经导致短期利润率大幅下降，去全球化趋势加速。桥水基金以英特尔和台积电为例，这两家公司最近都表示，尽管成本较高，但他们打算在美国建立下一个生产设施。</p><p>此外，桥水基金还对僵尸企业现状表达了担忧，称“即使总体利润回升，一些公司还是会倒闭，或者在此过程中它们的股票会贬值。由于水平较低的利润和资金短缺,公司可能会在冠状病毒后出现更多的负债,”该报告警告说，当前美国僵尸公司（即那些可能无法支付利息的企业）比例正处于历史最高水平，完全靠美联储直接购买公司债才得以支撑下去。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42cc2b5dd5b70d6abb782f10af5c9ae5\" tg-width=\"584\" tg-height=\"379\"></p><p>桥水基金的预言是否会成为现实？实际上，近年来达里奥的预测频频“失灵”：他在年初呼吁人们采用多样化的投资组合策略，来抵御全球股市在几十年以来最大的“崩盘”。但尽管美股在3月的确遭受了“史诗级”抛售，但此后一路反弹，纳斯达克指数屡创新高。此外，根据提交给美国证券交易委员会的文件，桥水基金在截至4月30日的两个月中资产缩水了15％，使总资产从1630亿美元降至1380亿美元。其损失的原因更多是业绩不佳，而不是客户赎回。</p><p>另一方面，达里奥在年初时喊话“现金就是垃圾”，但在3月市场却迎来避险资产和风险资产的全面抛售，人们卖掉一切可卖掉的资产换取现金应对危机，美元指数也在3月的“钱荒”中飙升。</p><p>而<b>如果达里奥的预言正确，他实际上是在表明美联储将不再能够推动股市越来越高</b>。包括达里奥在内的业内人士担心，全球央行习惯了大放水模式，使得“印钞”将在黑天鹅结束后仍成为常态。达里奥称，全球央行的“印钞”之路能否终止取决于经济的反弹情况，而在这一时刻到来之前，持有黄金将帮助投资者抵御负利率及货币贬值。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>达利欧警告：股市可能迎来“失去的十年”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ 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hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n达利欧警告：股市可能迎来“失去的十年”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-06-19 09:40</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>2020年以来，美联储支持美股自3月底反弹，但全球最大对冲基金“桥水基金”资产却缩水近15%。其创始人瑞达里奥在最近写给桥水基金投资者的一封信中警告说，美国公司利润率多年来的强劲增长将出现逆转，可能会给股票投资者带来“失去的十年”。</p><p>在这封信件中，桥水基金(Bridgewater)的分析师写道，股票相对于现金的超额回报中很大一部分来自利润率。但受到当前美股公司收益周期性下滑的影响，未来超额回报或面临转变。他们比较了标普的利润率(一直处于高水平)与真实的企业利润(如高盛下图所示)，甚至在冠状病毒大流行爆发之前，真实的企业利润就已跌至10年来的低点。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61cde2add2fcb30d89bbdd8c1bb69bce\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"458\"></p><p>桥水基金在信中指出:“在过去几十年里，全球化或许是发达国家盈利的最大推动力，但它已经达到了顶峰——国际对峙和全球流行病进一步加速了跨国公司回流和在国内重建供应链的步伐，这些跨国企业变得更注重可靠性，而不仅仅是成本优化。”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/881475f0a052c5443419f9b1567b94d2\" tg-width=\"579\" tg-height=\"582\"></p><p>分析师们还说，最近几周，由于大流行导致的需求崩溃已经导致短期利润率大幅下降，去全球化趋势加速。桥水基金以英特尔和台积电为例，这两家公司最近都表示，尽管成本较高，但他们打算在美国建立下一个生产设施。</p><p>此外，桥水基金还对僵尸企业现状表达了担忧，称“即使总体利润回升，一些公司还是会倒闭，或者在此过程中它们的股票会贬值。由于水平较低的利润和资金短缺,公司可能会在冠状病毒后出现更多的负债,”该报告警告说，当前美国僵尸公司（即那些可能无法支付利息的企业）比例正处于历史最高水平，完全靠美联储直接购买公司债才得以支撑下去。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42cc2b5dd5b70d6abb782f10af5c9ae5\" tg-width=\"584\" tg-height=\"379\"></p><p>桥水基金的预言是否会成为现实？实际上，近年来达里奥的预测频频“失灵”：他在年初呼吁人们采用多样化的投资组合策略，来抵御全球股市在几十年以来最大的“崩盘”。但尽管美股在3月的确遭受了“史诗级”抛售，但此后一路反弹，纳斯达克指数屡创新高。此外，根据提交给美国证券交易委员会的文件，桥水基金在截至4月30日的两个月中资产缩水了15％，使总资产从1630亿美元降至1380亿美元。其损失的原因更多是业绩不佳，而不是客户赎回。</p><p>另一方面，达里奥在年初时喊话“现金就是垃圾”，但在3月市场却迎来避险资产和风险资产的全面抛售，人们卖掉一切可卖掉的资产换取现金应对危机，美元指数也在3月的“钱荒”中飙升。</p><p>而<b>如果达里奥的预言正确，他实际上是在表明美联储将不再能够推动股市越来越高</b>。包括达里奥在内的业内人士担心，全球央行习惯了大放水模式，使得“印钞”将在黑天鹅结束后仍成为常态。达里奥称，全球央行的“印钞”之路能否终止取决于经济的反弹情况，而在这一时刻到来之前，持有黄金将帮助投资者抵御负利率及货币贬值。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61ac6f61084482a9c0c70291c78e92f5","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130263417","content_text":"2020年以来，美联储支持美股自3月底反弹，但全球最大对冲基金“桥水基金”资产却缩水近15%。其创始人瑞达里奥在最近写给桥水基金投资者的一封信中警告说，美国公司利润率多年来的强劲增长将出现逆转，可能会给股票投资者带来“失去的十年”。在这封信件中，桥水基金(Bridgewater)的分析师写道，股票相对于现金的超额回报中很大一部分来自利润率。但受到当前美股公司收益周期性下滑的影响，未来超额回报或面临转变。他们比较了标普的利润率(一直处于高水平)与真实的企业利润(如高盛下图所示)，甚至在冠状病毒大流行爆发之前，真实的企业利润就已跌至10年来的低点。桥水基金在信中指出:“在过去几十年里，全球化或许是发达国家盈利的最大推动力，但它已经达到了顶峰——国际对峙和全球流行病进一步加速了跨国公司回流和在国内重建供应链的步伐，这些跨国企业变得更注重可靠性，而不仅仅是成本优化。”分析师们还说，最近几周，由于大流行导致的需求崩溃已经导致短期利润率大幅下降，去全球化趋势加速。桥水基金以英特尔和台积电为例，这两家公司最近都表示，尽管成本较高，但他们打算在美国建立下一个生产设施。此外，桥水基金还对僵尸企业现状表达了担忧，称“即使总体利润回升，一些公司还是会倒闭，或者在此过程中它们的股票会贬值。由于水平较低的利润和资金短缺,公司可能会在冠状病毒后出现更多的负债,”该报告警告说，当前美国僵尸公司（即那些可能无法支付利息的企业）比例正处于历史最高水平，完全靠美联储直接购买公司债才得以支撑下去。桥水基金的预言是否会成为现实？实际上，近年来达里奥的预测频频“失灵”：他在年初呼吁人们采用多样化的投资组合策略，来抵御全球股市在几十年以来最大的“崩盘”。但尽管美股在3月的确遭受了“史诗级”抛售，但此后一路反弹，纳斯达克指数屡创新高。此外，根据提交给美国证券交易委员会的文件，桥水基金在截至4月30日的两个月中资产缩水了15％，使总资产从1630亿美元降至1380亿美元。其损失的原因更多是业绩不佳，而不是客户赎回。另一方面，达里奥在年初时喊话“现金就是垃圾”，但在3月市场却迎来避险资产和风险资产的全面抛售，人们卖掉一切可卖掉的资产换取现金应对危机，美元指数也在3月的“钱荒”中飙升。而如果达里奥的预言正确，他实际上是在表明美联储将不再能够推动股市越来越高。包括达里奥在内的业内人士担心，全球央行习惯了大放水模式，使得“印钞”将在黑天鹅结束后仍成为常态。达里奥称，全球央行的“印钞”之路能否终止取决于经济的反弹情况，而在这一时刻到来之前，持有黄金将帮助投资者抵御负利率及货币贬值。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2106,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":955114354,"gmtCreate":1592320054878,"gmtModify":1704198877523,"author":{"id":"3546751766912236","authorId":"3546751766912236","name":"呜啦啦魔力圈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acd6061c79baa7d499e7c9d857f63118","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3546751766912236","authorIdStr":"3546751766912236"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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16:03","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"盘前异动：瑞幸再涨20%，传百胜中国有意收购","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107966948","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"5月27日盘前时段，美股三大指数期货集体上涨，纳指期货涨幅领先。瑞幸咖啡盘前涨超20%，昨日该股大幅收涨逾53%。外媒此前有报道称，百胜中国控股可能有兴趣收购瑞幸咖啡的一些资产。加拿大国民咖啡品牌Ti","content":"<p>5月27日盘前时段，美股三大指数期货集体上涨，纳指期货涨幅领先。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00ea80257b951cc1b3070ca2c5a762eb\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"196\"></p><p><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LK\">瑞幸咖啡</a>盘前涨超20%，昨日该股大幅收涨逾53%。</span>外媒此前有报道称，<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YUMC\">百胜中国</a>控股可能有兴趣收购瑞幸咖啡的一些资产。加拿大国民咖啡品牌Tim Hortons和喜茶也有可能在收购者名单上</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d3d23fad112d3c1b10ef91355bc72b0\" tg-width=\"362\" tg-height=\"700\"></p><p><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>汽车盘前涨约3%。蔚来4月销售业绩向好，将于周四发布财报。</span></p><p><span>美股邮轮股盘前上涨。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCL\">嘉年华邮轮</a>涨5.65%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NCLH\">挪威邮轮</a>涨超6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RCL\">皇家加勒比邮轮</a>涨5.45%。</span></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>盘前异动：瑞幸再涨20%，传百胜中国有意收购</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; 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class=\"title\">\n盘前异动：瑞幸再涨20%，传百胜中国有意收购\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-05-27 16:03</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>5月27日盘前时段，美股三大指数期货集体上涨，纳指期货涨幅领先。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00ea80257b951cc1b3070ca2c5a762eb\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"196\"></p><p><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LK\">瑞幸咖啡</a>盘前涨超20%，昨日该股大幅收涨逾53%。</span>外媒此前有报道称，<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YUMC\">百胜中国</a>控股可能有兴趣收购瑞幸咖啡的一些资产。加拿大国民咖啡品牌Tim Hortons和喜茶也有可能在收购者名单上</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d3d23fad112d3c1b10ef91355bc72b0\" tg-width=\"362\" tg-height=\"700\"></p><p><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>汽车盘前涨约3%。蔚来4月销售业绩向好，将于周四发布财报。</span></p><p><span>美股邮轮股盘前上涨。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCL\">嘉年华邮轮</a>涨5.65%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NCLH\">挪威邮轮</a>涨超6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RCL\">皇家加勒比邮轮</a>涨5.45%。</span></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82005fdd5a20870413111b3adc1a547","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107966948","content_text":"5月27日盘前时段，美股三大指数期货集体上涨，纳指期货涨幅领先。瑞幸咖啡盘前涨超20%，昨日该股大幅收涨逾53%。外媒此前有报道称，百胜中国控股可能有兴趣收购瑞幸咖啡的一些资产。加拿大国民咖啡品牌Tim 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