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USDxx.eth
2020-04-21
$SP500指数主连(ESmain)$
。
USDxx.eth
2020-04-17
$SP500指数主连(ESmain)$
几个想法 因为吉利德的报告大涨 领涨居然是邮轮和航空!就算药物真的有效邮轮也不应该涨 所以还是过分的乐观 ssi已经是多仓大于空仓 所以(* ̄m ̄)
USDxx.eth
2020-04-12
$SP500指数主连(ESmain)$
准备
USDxx.eth
2020-04-09
$SP500指数主连(ESmain)$
[呆住]
USDxx.eth
2020-04-08
$SP500指数主连(ESmain)$
欧洲央行放宽银行贷款抵押品要求 自己琢磨吧
USDxx.eth
2020-04-08
$SP500指数主连(ESmain)$
已经有人在吹嘘之前抄底成功 又有v型反转的声音 真是愚昧无知到极致 昨夜高开低走明显的科技股走跌 周四减产协议将是决定下跌或者横扫的关键
USDxx.eth
2020-04-07
$SP500指数主连(ESmain)$
6日无理由上涨 价格回到之前大趋势的上升支撑线 小时图的双头形态被破坏 上涨据说是新增病历放缓 这个有些太牵强 看看今天走势
USDxx.eth
2020-04-03
$SP500指数主连(ESmain)$
当你凝视深渊的时候 深渊也在凝视你
USDxx.eth
2020-04-03
$SP500指数主连(ESmain)$
呵呵哒 原来是惯犯 这样略记斑斑的人一点风险管理能力都没有 现在还想让us再次伟大?
USDxx.eth
2020-03-20
看了东森台57金钱豹了吗 跑这里装大神
抱歉,原内容已删除
USDxx.eth
2020-03-18
$VIX波动率主连(VIXmain)$
桥水就是投机基金 做多爆仓 机会主义者 死猫跳不是随便就能跳起来的
USDxx.eth
2020-03-18
$波音(BA)$
如果美国是个人 这人手上带着戒指上面闪闪发亮的宝石 就是BA 现在这个宝石烂了
USDxx.eth
2020-03-16
愚蠢的编辑 就好像你经历过08一样 别说的好像真的一样
美联储进入“危机模式”,仿佛重回2008年
USDxx.eth
2020-03-16
$SP500指数主连(ESmain)$
愚蠢的fed 这时候降息加qe 增加恐慌已经无以复加
USDxx.eth
2020-03-15
特么的 我能屏蔽社区这个模块吗 一群外行在里面瞎bb都觉得自己是巴菲特了 我已经受不了啦
USDxx.eth
2020-03-13
$SP500指数主连(ESmain)$
**在退潮 2008是金融体系信心的崩溃 那这次新冠就是国际协作体系信心的崩溃 一切的源头都是民粹主义的风行 最差的时候还没有到来
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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现在还想让us再次伟大?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a77c51ce61be6dee459937184a9e99bd","width":"605","height":"205"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/923557321","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1814,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":967735094,"gmtCreate":1584695943018,"gmtModify":1704355677449,"author":{"id":"3547175411817549","authorId":"3547175411817549","name":"USDxx.eth","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29c04ac3e40c6d97d03b557f4d5aaaaf","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3547175411817549","authorIdStr":"3547175411817549"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"看了东森台57金钱豹了吗 跑这里装大神","listText":"看了东森台57金钱豹了吗 跑这里装大神","text":"看了东森台57金钱豹了吗 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死猫跳不是随便就能跳起来的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/967909445","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":728,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":967018970,"gmtCreate":1584493429690,"gmtModify":1704354443030,"author":{"id":"3547175411817549","authorId":"3547175411817549","name":"USDxx.eth","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29c04ac3e40c6d97d03b557f4d5aaaaf","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3547175411817549","authorIdStr":"3547175411817549"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">$波音(BA)$</a>如果美国是个人 这人手上带着戒指上面闪闪发亮的宝石 就是BA 现在这个宝石烂了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">$波音(BA)$</a>如果美国是个人 这人手上带着戒指上面闪闪发亮的宝石 就是BA 现在这个宝石烂了","text":"$波音(BA)$如果美国是个人 这人手上带着戒指上面闪闪发亮的宝石 就是BA 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别说的好像真的一样","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/964142756","repostId":"1129539416","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129539416","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1584323469,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129539416?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-03-16 09:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美联储进入“危机模式”,仿佛重回2008年","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129539416","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"出乎所有人意料,美联储又提前出手了!3月16日,美联储赶在亚洲盘前宣布降息到0、7000亿QE与海外央行大规模货币互换计划。这一系列眼花缭乱的超级组合拳意味着,美联储已经进入了2008年一样的危机模式","content":"<p><span>出乎所有人意料,美联储又提前出手了!</span></p><p><span>3月16日,美联储赶在亚洲盘前宣布降息到0、7000亿QE与海外央行大规模货币互换计划。</span></p><p><span>这一系列眼花缭乱的超级组合拳意味着,美联储已经进入了2008年一样的危机模式。</span></p><p><span>鲍威尔表示,新冠病毒对美国及全球影响深远,海外疲软将在一段时间内拖累美国出口。美国第二季经济可能会疲软。第二季之后“很难说”经济影响会持续多久,将取决于病毒扩散情况。</span></p><p><span>鲍威尔称,今日的行动将帮助美国经济,促进更有力地回归正常。资产购买计划旨在让关键市场恢复正常运行。</span></p><p><span>美联储是在周末的紧急会议后做出上述决定,本次会议将替代原定于3月17-18日的议息会议。</span></p><p><span>不过市场似乎有点蒙,股市不涨反跌,美国三大股指暴跌4%左右,美元大跌,黄金飙升,10年期美国国债收益率快速下行32个基点。</span></p><p><b><span>01、购债没有上限</span></b></p><p><span>当被问及未来几个月QE和货币互换的期限和上限时,鲍威尔表示“没有月度上限,没有周度上限。美联储市场操作部门将以强劲的力度出手,以尽快恢复市场运作、流动性。我们的措辞是开放的。”</span></p><p><span>鲍威尔还呼吁美国政府同时推出进一步财政刺激,他认为财政应对措施至关重要。很难说第三和第四季会发生什么。显然有必要出台更广泛的财政政策。</span></p><p><span>不过,鲍威尔表示目前不会考虑负利率,并不认为负利率是适合美国的政策应对措施。</span></p><p><span><b>02、特朗普:祝贺美联储</b></span></p><p><span>对美联储的雷霆反应,特朗普给出了少有的赞赏。他在周日的白宫发布会上表示:“我很开心。我想祝贺美联储,他们这次一步到位了,我认为投资者应该振奋。”</span></p><p><span>在此之前,特朗普曾多次炮轰美联储没有快速行动,眼看着市场暴跌。即便此前的意外降息50基点也没有令特朗普满意。他在多个场合批评称,美联储应该引领市场,而不是跟随其他央行。</span></p><p><span>在美联储出手之前,特朗普已于上周五宣布美国进入应对新冠肺炎的紧急状态。</span></p><p><span>周六,美国国会众议院以363-40票投票通过一项立法案,为美国应对新冠肺炎疫情推出一揽子经济援助计划。目前法案已提交参议院。</span></p><p><span>至此,美国从政府到央行,从财爸到央妈,已经完成紧急动员,使出全力应对此次新冠疫情的冲击。</span></p><p><span><b>03、流动性极度紧张</b></span></p><p><span>此次美联储一套组合拳,有望为市场提供充足的流动性。鲍威尔称,美国金融状况已明显趋紧。在信用收紧和股市抛售期间,多个金融市场显示出压力迹象。</span></p><p><span>上周暴跌之中,投资者为了保持流动性,连传统的避险资产美债也疯狂抛售。美国债券市场的振幅也是前所未有的,美国30年期国债收益率振幅甚至超过1%:</span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64daccd3198624ec5e464e5de72dc37e\" /><span>摩根大通的数据也显示,用于衡量债券市场流动性的关键指标“Market depth”已经降至2008年金融危机时的水平。</span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4007efa82dc284c9a4077181609d13ad\" /><span>反映市场流动性风险的最关键指标,即远期利率协议(Forward Rate Agreement,FRA)和隔夜利率互换(Overnight Indexed Swap,OIS)的利差,一周内飙升至近80,已经逼近2009年金融海啸后期的水平。</span></p><p><span>这意味着中小企业的融资困难可能加剧,未来危机可能进一步恶化。</span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8a450397f9fca7ae3d793de8de50724\" /><span><b>04、载入史册的一周</b></span></p><p><span>美联储之所以会意外推出超级火箭炮救市,原因显然是因为上周的暴跌,无论从任何角度,都已经可以“媲美”历史上任何一次危机。让我们一起回顾一下。</span></p><p><span>跌入熊市的速度史上最快。标普500指数从高点下挫20%的速度不仅快于上一次金融海啸期间的2007年,甚至快过1987年股灾和1929年的大萧条。</span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c2d44af7eeba469f2ba41502ab4fc6e\" /><span>当股市重挫时,传统的对冲资产债券在本周似乎也丧失了对冲风险的功能。股债的投资组合,单周下挫近15%,也创下2008年雷曼兄弟事件以来的最差纪录:</span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca8a5b848b2013adfbaa43e9c9eee69f\" /><span>3月12日周四,在纽交所上市的全部中,股价创新低的个股也占到了75.7%,这一比例创历史新高:</span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4ae50878b6f72852cd85da2e1e035f2\" /><span>巨大的波动性则推高了追踪波动率的指数。标普500 9天波动率指数VIX9D突破100,创下历史最高记录:</span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/496549e4f32384227f3e82712f89ebf9\" /><span>回顾历史,人们不禁担忧,全球资产遭遇抛售,这或许是1929年大萧条的重现。</span></p><p><span>其中一个信号是,道指在周四周五两天,先深跌后大幅反弹,两天之内的振幅接近20%。如果不算1987年股灾,那么这种情况只在1929年10月发生过。</span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f13f39c5295a62fa2f1dafe980600eaa\" /><span>1929年道指虽然反弹了一次,但是之后美股一蹶不振,将美国和全球经济拖入长达四年的大萧条之中:</span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9068ce4bbd726848beafe88b7af1c573\" /><span>大萧条中,美联储没有出手,导致市场暴跌持续了多年,经济萎靡不振。一个世纪后伯南克总结大萧条的经验,推出零利率+QE拯救了市场。</span></p><p><span>这一次,鲍威尔能成功么?</span></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/kFLorYpzHGMts-rKVvOmjA><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>出乎所有人意料,美联储又提前出手了!3月16日,美联储赶在亚洲盘前宣布降息到0、7000亿QE与海外央行大规模货币互换计划。这一系列眼花缭乱的超级组合拳意味着,美联储已经进入了2008年一样的危机模式。鲍威尔表示,新冠病毒对美国及全球影响深远,海外疲软将在一段时间内拖累美国出口。美国第二季经济可能会疲软。第二季之后“很难说”经济影响会持续多久,将取决于病毒扩散情况。鲍威尔称,今日的行动将帮助美国...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/kFLorYpzHGMts-rKVvOmjA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09a7b30204158feaaaf0f4efc19f31f","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/kFLorYpzHGMts-rKVvOmjA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1129539416","content_text":"出乎所有人意料,美联储又提前出手了!3月16日,美联储赶在亚洲盘前宣布降息到0、7000亿QE与海外央行大规模货币互换计划。这一系列眼花缭乱的超级组合拳意味着,美联储已经进入了2008年一样的危机模式。鲍威尔表示,新冠病毒对美国及全球影响深远,海外疲软将在一段时间内拖累美国出口。美国第二季经济可能会疲软。第二季之后“很难说”经济影响会持续多久,将取决于病毒扩散情况。鲍威尔称,今日的行动将帮助美国经济,促进更有力地回归正常。资产购买计划旨在让关键市场恢复正常运行。美联储是在周末的紧急会议后做出上述决定,本次会议将替代原定于3月17-18日的议息会议。不过市场似乎有点蒙,股市不涨反跌,美国三大股指暴跌4%左右,美元大跌,黄金飙升,10年期美国国债收益率快速下行32个基点。01、购债没有上限当被问及未来几个月QE和货币互换的期限和上限时,鲍威尔表示“没有月度上限,没有周度上限。美联储市场操作部门将以强劲的力度出手,以尽快恢复市场运作、流动性。我们的措辞是开放的。”鲍威尔还呼吁美国政府同时推出进一步财政刺激,他认为财政应对措施至关重要。很难说第三和第四季会发生什么。显然有必要出台更广泛的财政政策。不过,鲍威尔表示目前不会考虑负利率,并不认为负利率是适合美国的政策应对措施。02、特朗普:祝贺美联储对美联储的雷霆反应,特朗普给出了少有的赞赏。他在周日的白宫发布会上表示:“我很开心。我想祝贺美联储,他们这次一步到位了,我认为投资者应该振奋。”在此之前,特朗普曾多次炮轰美联储没有快速行动,眼看着市场暴跌。即便此前的意外降息50基点也没有令特朗普满意。他在多个场合批评称,美联储应该引领市场,而不是跟随其他央行。在美联储出手之前,特朗普已于上周五宣布美国进入应对新冠肺炎的紧急状态。周六,美国国会众议院以363-40票投票通过一项立法案,为美国应对新冠肺炎疫情推出一揽子经济援助计划。目前法案已提交参议院。至此,美国从政府到央行,从财爸到央妈,已经完成紧急动员,使出全力应对此次新冠疫情的冲击。03、流动性极度紧张此次美联储一套组合拳,有望为市场提供充足的流动性。鲍威尔称,美国金融状况已明显趋紧。在信用收紧和股市抛售期间,多个金融市场显示出压力迹象。上周暴跌之中,投资者为了保持流动性,连传统的避险资产美债也疯狂抛售。美国债券市场的振幅也是前所未有的,美国30年期国债收益率振幅甚至超过1%:摩根大通的数据也显示,用于衡量债券市场流动性的关键指标“Market depth”已经降至2008年金融危机时的水平。反映市场流动性风险的最关键指标,即远期利率协议(Forward Rate Agreement,FRA)和隔夜利率互换(Overnight Indexed Swap,OIS)的利差,一周内飙升至近80,已经逼近2009年金融海啸后期的水平。这意味着中小企业的融资困难可能加剧,未来危机可能进一步恶化。04、载入史册的一周美联储之所以会意外推出超级火箭炮救市,原因显然是因为上周的暴跌,无论从任何角度,都已经可以“媲美”历史上任何一次危机。让我们一起回顾一下。跌入熊市的速度史上最快。标普500指数从高点下挫20%的速度不仅快于上一次金融海啸期间的2007年,甚至快过1987年股灾和1929年的大萧条。当股市重挫时,传统的对冲资产债券在本周似乎也丧失了对冲风险的功能。股债的投资组合,单周下挫近15%,也创下2008年雷曼兄弟事件以来的最差纪录:3月12日周四,在纽交所上市的全部中,股价创新低的个股也占到了75.7%,这一比例创历史新高:巨大的波动性则推高了追踪波动率的指数。标普500 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/ESmain\">$SP500指数主连(ESmain)$</a>已经有人在吹嘘之前抄底成功 又有v型反转的声音 真是愚昧无知到极致 昨夜高开低走明显的科技股走跌 周四减产协议将是决定下跌或者横扫的关键","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/ESmain\">$SP500指数主连(ESmain)$</a>已经有人在吹嘘之前抄底成功 又有v型反转的声音 真是愚昧无知到极致 昨夜高开低走明显的科技股走跌 周四减产协议将是决定下跌或者横扫的关键","text":"$SP500指数主连(ESmain)$已经有人在吹嘘之前抄底成功 又有v型反转的声音 真是愚昧无知到极致 昨夜高开低走明显的科技股走跌 周四减产协议将是决定下跌或者横扫的关键","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2a01bc919eb92903d653c4378d5dc86","width":"1000","height":"562"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/921597276","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4714,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":921837826,"gmtCreate":1586228085565,"gmtModify":1704360434124,"author":{"id":"3547175411817549","authorId":"3547175411817549","name":"USDxx.eth","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29c04ac3e40c6d97d03b557f4d5aaaaf","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3547175411817549","authorIdStr":"3547175411817549"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/ESmain\">$SP500指数主连(ESmain)$</a>6日无理由上涨 价格回到之前大趋势的上升支撑线 小时图的双头形态被破坏 上涨据说是新增病历放缓 这个有些太牵强 看看今天走势","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/ESmain\">$SP500指数主连(ESmain)$</a>6日无理由上涨 价格回到之前大趋势的上升支撑线 小时图的双头形态被破坏 上涨据说是新增病历放缓 这个有些太牵强 看看今天走势","text":"$SP500指数主连(ESmain)$6日无理由上涨 价格回到之前大趋势的上升支撑线 小时图的双头形态被破坏 上涨据说是新增病历放缓 这个有些太牵强 看看今天走势","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5e5d7e4a5d84ce739e28b08a9ecd597","width":"1761","height":"1185"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/921837826","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4036,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3543892512841789","authorId":"3543892512841789","name":"椒图","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3543892512841789","authorIdStr":"3543892512841789"},"content":"其实在特不靠谱看来,疫情不疫情的无所谓,有钱的就治疗,没钱的死就死,美国人大多数也都是这样认为的,之前的熔断,应该是他们演的一出戏,很多人都被骗了,我也爆仓了,唉","text":"其实在特不靠谱看来,疫情不疫情的无所谓,有钱的就治疗,没钱的死就死,美国人大多数也都是这样认为的,之前的熔断,应该是他们演的一出戏,很多人都被骗了,我也爆仓了,唉","html":"其实在特不靠谱看来,疫情不疫情的无所谓,有钱的就治疗,没钱的死就死,美国人大多数也都是这样认为的,之前的熔断,应该是他们演的一出戏,很多人都被骗了,我也爆仓了,唉"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":967018970,"gmtCreate":1584493429690,"gmtModify":1704354443030,"author":{"id":"3547175411817549","authorId":"3547175411817549","name":"USDxx.eth","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29c04ac3e40c6d97d03b557f4d5aaaaf","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3547175411817549","authorIdStr":"3547175411817549"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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跑这里装大神","text":"看了东森台57金钱豹了吗 跑这里装大神","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/967735094","repostId":"1111228742","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1249,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":967909445,"gmtCreate":1584515395687,"gmtModify":1704354541000,"author":{"id":"3547175411817549","authorId":"3547175411817549","name":"USDxx.eth","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29c04ac3e40c6d97d03b557f4d5aaaaf","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3547175411817549","authorIdStr":"3547175411817549"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/VIXmain\">$VIX波动率主连(VIXmain)$</a>桥水就是投机基金 做多爆仓 机会主义者 死猫跳不是随便就能跳起来的","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/VIXmain\">$VIX波动率主连(VIXmain)$</a>桥水就是投机基金 做多爆仓 机会主义者 死猫跳不是随便就能跳起来的","text":"$VIX波动率主连(VIXmain)$桥水就是投机基金 做多爆仓 机会主义者 死猫跳不是随便就能跳起来的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/967909445","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":728,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":964142756,"gmtCreate":1584337125075,"gmtModify":1704353528393,"author":{"id":"3547175411817549","authorId":"3547175411817549","name":"USDxx.eth","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29c04ac3e40c6d97d03b557f4d5aaaaf","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3547175411817549","authorIdStr":"3547175411817549"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"愚蠢的编辑 就好像你经历过08一样 别说的好像真的一样 ","listText":"愚蠢的编辑 就好像你经历过08一样 别说的好像真的一样 ","text":"愚蠢的编辑 就好像你经历过08一样 别说的好像真的一样","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/964142756","repostId":"1129539416","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129539416","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1584323469,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129539416?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-03-16 09:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美联储进入“危机模式”,仿佛重回2008年","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129539416","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"出乎所有人意料,美联储又提前出手了!3月16日,美联储赶在亚洲盘前宣布降息到0、7000亿QE与海外央行大规模货币互换计划。这一系列眼花缭乱的超级组合拳意味着,美联储已经进入了2008年一样的危机模式","content":"<p><span>出乎所有人意料,美联储又提前出手了!</span></p><p><span>3月16日,美联储赶在亚洲盘前宣布降息到0、7000亿QE与海外央行大规模货币互换计划。</span></p><p><span>这一系列眼花缭乱的超级组合拳意味着,美联储已经进入了2008年一样的危机模式。</span></p><p><span>鲍威尔表示,新冠病毒对美国及全球影响深远,海外疲软将在一段时间内拖累美国出口。美国第二季经济可能会疲软。第二季之后“很难说”经济影响会持续多久,将取决于病毒扩散情况。</span></p><p><span>鲍威尔称,今日的行动将帮助美国经济,促进更有力地回归正常。资产购买计划旨在让关键市场恢复正常运行。</span></p><p><span>美联储是在周末的紧急会议后做出上述决定,本次会议将替代原定于3月17-18日的议息会议。</span></p><p><span>不过市场似乎有点蒙,股市不涨反跌,美国三大股指暴跌4%左右,美元大跌,黄金飙升,10年期美国国债收益率快速下行32个基点。</span></p><p><b><span>01、购债没有上限</span></b></p><p><span>当被问及未来几个月QE和货币互换的期限和上限时,鲍威尔表示“没有月度上限,没有周度上限。美联储市场操作部门将以强劲的力度出手,以尽快恢复市场运作、流动性。我们的措辞是开放的。”</span></p><p><span>鲍威尔还呼吁美国政府同时推出进一步财政刺激,他认为财政应对措施至关重要。很难说第三和第四季会发生什么。显然有必要出台更广泛的财政政策。</span></p><p><span>不过,鲍威尔表示目前不会考虑负利率,并不认为负利率是适合美国的政策应对措施。</span></p><p><span><b>02、特朗普:祝贺美联储</b></span></p><p><span>对美联储的雷霆反应,特朗普给出了少有的赞赏。他在周日的白宫发布会上表示:“我很开心。我想祝贺美联储,他们这次一步到位了,我认为投资者应该振奋。”</span></p><p><span>在此之前,特朗普曾多次炮轰美联储没有快速行动,眼看着市场暴跌。即便此前的意外降息50基点也没有令特朗普满意。他在多个场合批评称,美联储应该引领市场,而不是跟随其他央行。</span></p><p><span>在美联储出手之前,特朗普已于上周五宣布美国进入应对新冠肺炎的紧急状态。</span></p><p><span>周六,美国国会众议院以363-40票投票通过一项立法案,为美国应对新冠肺炎疫情推出一揽子经济援助计划。目前法案已提交参议院。</span></p><p><span>至此,美国从政府到央行,从财爸到央妈,已经完成紧急动员,使出全力应对此次新冠疫情的冲击。</span></p><p><span><b>03、流动性极度紧张</b></span></p><p><span>此次美联储一套组合拳,有望为市场提供充足的流动性。鲍威尔称,美国金融状况已明显趋紧。在信用收紧和股市抛售期间,多个金融市场显示出压力迹象。</span></p><p><span>上周暴跌之中,投资者为了保持流动性,连传统的避险资产美债也疯狂抛售。美国债券市场的振幅也是前所未有的,美国30年期国债收益率振幅甚至超过1%:</span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64daccd3198624ec5e464e5de72dc37e\" /><span>摩根大通的数据也显示,用于衡量债券市场流动性的关键指标“Market depth”已经降至2008年金融危机时的水平。</span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4007efa82dc284c9a4077181609d13ad\" /><span>反映市场流动性风险的最关键指标,即远期利率协议(Forward Rate Agreement,FRA)和隔夜利率互换(Overnight Indexed Swap,OIS)的利差,一周内飙升至近80,已经逼近2009年金融海啸后期的水平。</span></p><p><span>这意味着中小企业的融资困难可能加剧,未来危机可能进一步恶化。</span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8a450397f9fca7ae3d793de8de50724\" /><span><b>04、载入史册的一周</b></span></p><p><span>美联储之所以会意外推出超级火箭炮救市,原因显然是因为上周的暴跌,无论从任何角度,都已经可以“媲美”历史上任何一次危机。让我们一起回顾一下。</span></p><p><span>跌入熊市的速度史上最快。标普500指数从高点下挫20%的速度不仅快于上一次金融海啸期间的2007年,甚至快过1987年股灾和1929年的大萧条。</span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c2d44af7eeba469f2ba41502ab4fc6e\" /><span>当股市重挫时,传统的对冲资产债券在本周似乎也丧失了对冲风险的功能。股债的投资组合,单周下挫近15%,也创下2008年雷曼兄弟事件以来的最差纪录:</span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca8a5b848b2013adfbaa43e9c9eee69f\" /><span>3月12日周四,在纽交所上市的全部中,股价创新低的个股也占到了75.7%,这一比例创历史新高:</span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4ae50878b6f72852cd85da2e1e035f2\" /><span>巨大的波动性则推高了追踪波动率的指数。标普500 9天波动率指数VIX9D突破100,创下历史最高记录:</span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/496549e4f32384227f3e82712f89ebf9\" /><span>回顾历史,人们不禁担忧,全球资产遭遇抛售,这或许是1929年大萧条的重现。</span></p><p><span>其中一个信号是,道指在周四周五两天,先深跌后大幅反弹,两天之内的振幅接近20%。如果不算1987年股灾,那么这种情况只在1929年10月发生过。</span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f13f39c5295a62fa2f1dafe980600eaa\" /><span>1929年道指虽然反弹了一次,但是之后美股一蹶不振,将美国和全球经济拖入长达四年的大萧条之中:</span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9068ce4bbd726848beafe88b7af1c573\" /><span>大萧条中,美联储没有出手,导致市场暴跌持续了多年,经济萎靡不振。一个世纪后伯南克总结大萧条的经验,推出零利率+QE拯救了市场。</span></p><p><span>这一次,鲍威尔能成功么?</span></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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}\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储进入“危机模式”,仿佛重回2008年\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-03-16 09:51 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/kFLorYpzHGMts-rKVvOmjA><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>出乎所有人意料,美联储又提前出手了!3月16日,美联储赶在亚洲盘前宣布降息到0、7000亿QE与海外央行大规模货币互换计划。这一系列眼花缭乱的超级组合拳意味着,美联储已经进入了2008年一样的危机模式。鲍威尔表示,新冠病毒对美国及全球影响深远,海外疲软将在一段时间内拖累美国出口。美国第二季经济可能会疲软。第二季之后“很难说”经济影响会持续多久,将取决于病毒扩散情况。鲍威尔称,今日的行动将帮助美国...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/kFLorYpzHGMts-rKVvOmjA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09a7b30204158feaaaf0f4efc19f31f","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/kFLorYpzHGMts-rKVvOmjA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1129539416","content_text":"出乎所有人意料,美联储又提前出手了!3月16日,美联储赶在亚洲盘前宣布降息到0、7000亿QE与海外央行大规模货币互换计划。这一系列眼花缭乱的超级组合拳意味着,美联储已经进入了2008年一样的危机模式。鲍威尔表示,新冠病毒对美国及全球影响深远,海外疲软将在一段时间内拖累美国出口。美国第二季经济可能会疲软。第二季之后“很难说”经济影响会持续多久,将取决于病毒扩散情况。鲍威尔称,今日的行动将帮助美国经济,促进更有力地回归正常。资产购买计划旨在让关键市场恢复正常运行。美联储是在周末的紧急会议后做出上述决定,本次会议将替代原定于3月17-18日的议息会议。不过市场似乎有点蒙,股市不涨反跌,美国三大股指暴跌4%左右,美元大跌,黄金飙升,10年期美国国债收益率快速下行32个基点。01、购债没有上限当被问及未来几个月QE和货币互换的期限和上限时,鲍威尔表示“没有月度上限,没有周度上限。美联储市场操作部门将以强劲的力度出手,以尽快恢复市场运作、流动性。我们的措辞是开放的。”鲍威尔还呼吁美国政府同时推出进一步财政刺激,他认为财政应对措施至关重要。很难说第三和第四季会发生什么。显然有必要出台更广泛的财政政策。不过,鲍威尔表示目前不会考虑负利率,并不认为负利率是适合美国的政策应对措施。02、特朗普:祝贺美联储对美联储的雷霆反应,特朗普给出了少有的赞赏。他在周日的白宫发布会上表示:“我很开心。我想祝贺美联储,他们这次一步到位了,我认为投资者应该振奋。”在此之前,特朗普曾多次炮轰美联储没有快速行动,眼看着市场暴跌。即便此前的意外降息50基点也没有令特朗普满意。他在多个场合批评称,美联储应该引领市场,而不是跟随其他央行。在美联储出手之前,特朗普已于上周五宣布美国进入应对新冠肺炎的紧急状态。周六,美国国会众议院以363-40票投票通过一项立法案,为美国应对新冠肺炎疫情推出一揽子经济援助计划。目前法案已提交参议院。至此,美国从政府到央行,从财爸到央妈,已经完成紧急动员,使出全力应对此次新冠疫情的冲击。03、流动性极度紧张此次美联储一套组合拳,有望为市场提供充足的流动性。鲍威尔称,美国金融状况已明显趋紧。在信用收紧和股市抛售期间,多个金融市场显示出压力迹象。上周暴跌之中,投资者为了保持流动性,连传统的避险资产美债也疯狂抛售。美国债券市场的振幅也是前所未有的,美国30年期国债收益率振幅甚至超过1%:摩根大通的数据也显示,用于衡量债券市场流动性的关键指标“Market depth”已经降至2008年金融危机时的水平。反映市场流动性风险的最关键指标,即远期利率协议(Forward Rate Agreement,FRA)和隔夜利率互换(Overnight Indexed Swap,OIS)的利差,一周内飙升至近80,已经逼近2009年金融海啸后期的水平。这意味着中小企业的融资困难可能加剧,未来危机可能进一步恶化。04、载入史册的一周美联储之所以会意外推出超级火箭炮救市,原因显然是因为上周的暴跌,无论从任何角度,都已经可以“媲美”历史上任何一次危机。让我们一起回顾一下。跌入熊市的速度史上最快。标普500指数从高点下挫20%的速度不仅快于上一次金融海啸期间的2007年,甚至快过1987年股灾和1929年的大萧条。当股市重挫时,传统的对冲资产债券在本周似乎也丧失了对冲风险的功能。股债的投资组合,单周下挫近15%,也创下2008年雷曼兄弟事件以来的最差纪录:3月12日周四,在纽交所上市的全部中,股价创新低的个股也占到了75.7%,这一比例创历史新高:巨大的波动性则推高了追踪波动率的指数。标普500 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