bilbili的个人主页 - 老虎社区

bilbili

bilbili

只为..B站而来

IP属地：北京

3关注

19粉丝

1主题

0勋章

2023-01-17

网易得多贱才会同意，这个时候同意舆论绝对一边倒喷网易。

暴雪中国：与网易探讨顺延六个月现有游戏服务协议遭拒绝

2022-09-18

扯淡呢吧？90天无条件退货？

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-08-26

巫师财经当年火还是因为靠他吸搞得来的优质的视频内容，自从被人扒了之后，他的视频内容也不行，没有了别人的文案，他自己的内容一点没有生趣，这次回来虽然跟b站没准又达成了什么协议，但对于用户来说没有优质的内容一样没有用，不看好。

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-04-13

只要国内经济不行，这个时候版号也救不了游戏股。

2022-03-03

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$开盘跌，没了。

2021-12-01

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$盘前涨有啥用

2021-11-17

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$元宇宙拉股价，可以的。不过开盘后个人依旧不看好走势

2021-11-17

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$让暴风雨来的更猛烈些吧

2021-09-07

真侵权，就应该告，支持！

小i机器人向法院申请禁售iPhone，索赔100亿元

2021-08-19

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$亏损已经20亿了，再好的财报也掩盖不了亏损扩大的事实，盈利遥遥无望，国家监管层层加码，哎，或许该撤出去买点黄金了。

2021-08-18

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$真的有很多外网的人买B站么？

2021-07-23

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$中概股没等到老美的制裁，反而因为国内环境率先狂跌，哎，也不知道好还是不好。

2021-06-30

$奈雪的茶(02150)$上市之后奈雪还能坚持多久倒闭呢？一场资本的游戏要玩到多久才是个头？

2021-05-12

大哥，B站09年创建，你打错时间了。

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-04-22

百家争鸣，最后活下来的八成也就一个手掌的个数

自动驾驶需要一场泡沫

2021-03-16

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$反正又是开盘跌

2021-03-09

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$涨了别高兴，跌了别骂娘

2021-02-26

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$高开低走不解释，老美现在撑不起股市上涨。

2021-02-26

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$看大盘吧，再大跌两天就真的撤了，之前留点烟酒钱吧。

2021-02-26

$蔚来(NIO)$奔40去喽，怪不得机构要坚持，小丑竟然是我自己

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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12:59</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>暴雪中国官方<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">微博</a>发布游戏服务状况更新：上周再次与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>接触并寻求协助，以探讨将现有的，基于网易于2019年已同意既定条款的协议，顺延六个月。但网易并未在上周的顺延谈判后，接受其关于顺延现有游戏服务协议的提议。因此暴雪将遵照停服公告于1月23日中止国服游戏服务。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2d2160436e02b4ff6ffc08d7d2ec2e9\" tg-width=\"1878\" tg-height=\"4765\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a4f21a674c5e0e30b41fa4f589f1cb6","relate_stocks":{"NTES":"网易","09999":"网易-S","ATVI":"动视暴雪"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157443412","content_text":"暴雪中国官方微博发布游戏服务状况更新：上周再次与网易接触并寻求协助，以探讨将现有的，基于网易于2019年已同意既定条款的协议，顺延六个月。但网易并未在上周的顺延谈判后，接受其关于顺延现有游戏服务协议的提议。因此暴雪将遵照停服公告于1月23日中止国服游戏服务。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09999":0.9,"ATVI":0.9,"NTES":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4378,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":663716932,"gmtCreate":1663463417126,"gmtModify":1663466863944,"author":{"id":"3547592875462099","authorId":"3547592875462099","name":"bilbili","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6b6a37ad9c5c0980ccbdcb48c7bcb90","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3547592875462099","authorIdStr":"3547592875462099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"扯淡呢吧？90天无条件退货？","listText":"扯淡呢吧？90天无条件退货？","text":"扯淡呢吧？90天无条件退货？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/663716932","repostId":"2267569882","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2579,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":660810017,"gmtCreate":1661520469843,"gmtModify":1661520662221,"author":{"id":"3547592875462099","authorId":"3547592875462099","name":"bilbili","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6b6a37ad9c5c0980ccbdcb48c7bcb90","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3547592875462099","authorIdStr":"3547592875462099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"巫师财经当年火还是因为靠他吸搞得来的优质的视频内容，自从被人扒了之后，他的视频内容也不行，没有了别人的文案，他自己的内容一点没有生趣，这次回来虽然跟b站没准又达成了什么协议，但对于用户来说没有优质的内容一样没有用，不看好。","listText":"巫师财经当年火还是因为靠他吸搞得来的优质的视频内容，自从被人扒了之后，他的视频内容也不行，没有了别人的文案，他自己的内容一点没有生趣，这次回来虽然跟b站没准又达成了什么协议，但对于用户来说没有优质的内容一样没有用，不看好。","text":"巫师财经当年火还是因为靠他吸搞得来的优质的视频内容，自从被人扒了之后，他的视频内容也不行，没有了别人的文案，他自己的内容一点没有生趣，这次回来虽然跟b站没准又达成了什么协议，但对于用户来说没有优质的内容一样没有用，不看好。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/660810017","repostId":"2262321139","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4471,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":613616671,"gmtCreate":1649849250613,"gmtModify":1649849250613,"author":{"id":"3547592875462099","authorId":"3547592875462099","name":"bilbili","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6b6a37ad9c5c0980ccbdcb48c7bcb90","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3547592875462099","authorIdStr":"3547592875462099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"只要国内经济不行，这个时候版号也救不了游戏股。","listText":"只要国内经济不行，这个时候版号也救不了游戏股。","text":"只要国内经济不行，这个时候版号也救不了游戏股。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/613616671","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3314,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":632150905,"gmtCreate":1646307251052,"gmtModify":1646307251052,"author":{"id":"3547592875462099","authorId":"3547592875462099","name":"bilbili","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6b6a37ad9c5c0980ccbdcb48c7bcb90","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3547592875462099","authorIdStr":"3547592875462099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://www.jiemian.com/article/6569388.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/275844f4baec1cdf60dd0a969b6b4fc3","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.jiemian.com/article/6569388.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190268789","content_text":"记者 佘晓晨\n近日，小i机器人（上海智臻智能网络科技股份有限公司）向上海市高级人民法院提出行为保全申请（禁令），要求苹果公司立即停止涉及Siri的专利侵权，停止生产、销售、许诺销售、进口、使用，侵犯ZL200410053749.9发明专利的iPhone产品。上海市高级人民法院已于昨日接受小i提出的禁令申请，案件持续审理中。\n此前，中华人民共和国最高人民法院下达（2017）最高法行再34号行政判决书，终审判决苹果电脑贸易（上海）有限公司败诉，确认小i机器人上述专利权的有效性。去年8月，小i机器人向上海市高级人民法院提起诉讼，正式要求苹果公司停止专利侵权，并赔偿人民币100亿元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3373,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":838926128,"gmtCreate":1629366872864,"gmtModify":1629366872864,"author":{"id":"3547592875462099","authorId":"3547592875462099","name":"bilbili","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6b6a37ad9c5c0980ccbdcb48c7bcb90","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3547592875462099","authorIdStr":"3547592875462099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$</a>真的有很多外网的人买B站么？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$</a>真的有很多外网的人买B站么？","text":"$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$真的有很多外网的人买B站么？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831896378","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2475,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":175452479,"gmtCreate":1627047681991,"gmtModify":1627047681991,"author":{"id":"3547592875462099","authorId":"3547592875462099","name":"bilbili","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6b6a37ad9c5c0980ccbdcb48c7bcb90","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3547592875462099","authorIdStr":"3547592875462099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$</a>中概股没等到老美的制裁，反而因为国内环境率先狂跌，哎，也不知道好还是不好。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$</a>中概股没等到老美的制裁，反而因为国内环境率先狂跌，哎，也不知道好还是不好。","text":"$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$中概股没等到老美的制裁，反而因为国内环境率先狂跌，哎，也不知道好还是不好。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":18,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175452479","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4025,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":153618841,"gmtCreate":1625021095383,"gmtModify":1625021095383,"author":{"id":"3547592875462099","authorId":"3547592875462099","name":"bilbili","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6b6a37ad9c5c0980ccbdcb48c7bcb90","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3547592875462099","authorIdStr":"3547592875462099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02150\">$奈雪的茶(02150)$</a>上市之后奈雪还能坚持多久倒闭呢？一场资本的游戏要玩到多久才是个头？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02150\">$奈雪的茶(02150)$</a>上市之后奈雪还能坚持多久倒闭呢？一场资本的游戏要玩到多久才是个头？","text":"$奈雪的茶(02150)$上市之后奈雪还能坚持多久倒闭呢？一场资本的游戏要玩到多久才是个头？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153618841","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1634,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":193715036,"gmtCreate":1620819772425,"gmtModify":1620819772425,"author":{"id":"3547592875462099","authorId":"3547592875462099","name":"bilbili","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6b6a37ad9c5c0980ccbdcb48c7bcb90","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3547592875462099","authorIdStr":"3547592875462099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"大哥，B站09年创建，你打错时间了。","listText":"大哥，B站09年创建，你打错时间了。","text":"大哥，B站09年创建，你打错时间了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/193715036","repostId":"1180966345","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3504,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3569366147647532","authorId":"3569366147647532","name":"赔10倍","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3569366147647532","authorIdStr":"3569366147647532"},"content":"还在拿b站么 我准备入场了","text":"还在拿b站么 我准备入场了","html":"还在拿b站么 我准备入场了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":378288194,"gmtCreate":1619045684818,"gmtModify":1619045684818,"author":{"id":"3547592875462099","authorId":"3547592875462099","name":"bilbili","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6b6a37ad9c5c0980ccbdcb48c7bcb90","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3547592875462099","authorIdStr":"3547592875462099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"百家争鸣，最后活下来的八成也就一个手掌的个数","listText":"百家争鸣，最后活下来的八成也就一个手掌的个数","text":"百家争鸣，最后活下来的八成也就一个手掌的个数","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/378288194","repostId":"2129871712","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2129871712","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1619010672,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2129871712?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-21 21:11","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"自动驾驶需要一场泡沫","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2129871712","media":"格隆汇","summary":"多一份冷静好。","content":"<p>一个行业有“钱景”，必然引发一阵“骚乱”。</p>\n<p>十年前是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>手机，现在是智能汽车。作为智能汽车最引人注目的应用，自动驾驶无疑最能撩拨产业界的神经。现在，除了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>、Google、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>这些先行者，连华为也进来了，并放出要吊打<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>的豪言。</p>\n<p>吊不吊打特斯拉有待验证，但是华为带来的自动驾驶首先在股市牵起一阵热潮。多个概念股相继涨停。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e90c8e408a27094af0ec585715f7e80c\" tg-width=\"751\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>从产业前景看，自动驾驶是星辰大海，但是从资本投入来看，它也可能成为吞噬一切的黑洞。</b></p>\n<h3>1</h3>\n<h3><b>双寡头还是百家争鸣？</b></h3>\n<p>计算机革命开启了电子业硬件、软件各自独立又相互依存的格局，智能手机承载了这个衣钵，到现在的智能汽车，很自然会照葫芦画瓢。</p>\n<p>于是，在自动驾驶系统上，出现类似<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>封闭IOS系统和Google开放安卓系统的局面，代表有特斯拉FSD和Google Waymo。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4814e0363c668a26061448ae4aa6a3fd\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"225\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>但是，和手机操作系统稳定的双寡头格局不同的是，除了特斯拉和Google，还有很多其他的参与者，软硬件通吃的厂商就有通用、小鹏，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>也说要造车，软件厂商就更多了，名气大如华为，小一点的有Pony.ai、Nuro.ai、图森未来等，图森未来更成为首家登陆美股的自动驾驶软件厂商。</p>\n<p><b>所以，有人提出自动驾驶不应该只有“IOS”和“安卓”，而是百家争鸣的局面。</b></p>\n<p>这种说法也不是没有道理，从理论上讲，智能手机操作系统只需要搭建基础的框架，其他的应用有待开发者去完善，之后再形成完善的生态系统。</p>\n<p>开发者不需要是操作系统公司，可以是第三方公司，觉得哪些功能有需求，就自己在源代码的基础上开发APP，这就类似于政府把地块整理好，把自己应该承担的基础设施建设好，然后供地产商在上面建住宅也好，建商场也行，建厂房、建写字楼都行，最终形成完善的城市设施。</p>\n<p>而且，手机的应用场景非常多，金融的、购物的、社交的、娱乐的，全都给操作系统公司做，等于城市的所有设施都让政府建，这将相当费劲和相当低效，倒不如把这些任务交给第三方开发者，同时让他们分享成果，一旦和众多的开发者、用户绑定在一起，就很容易形成垄断优势，新进入的操作系统就很难有生存空间。</p>\n<p><b>这是妥妥的三赢。</b></p>\n<p>但是，自动驾驶系统不一样，作为用户，你总不能拿到一个“裸系统”，然后再自己去安装刹车APP、方向盘APP、自动泊车APP吧，这得是多差的用户体验？要是忘记安装哪个APP，是不是意味着自动驾驶不了了？更要命的是，忘了装刹车APP就开自动上路，万一该刹车时不刹，那不等于拿人命开玩笑？</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb1e4e0bea9f608af01271f29b74384f\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>换句话说，<b>开发商给到用户的，不应该是一个仅仅整理好的“地块”，也不应该只建了部分基础设施的“地块”，而应该是一座具备完善设施的“城市”。</b>所以，自动驾驶系统一出来就应该是完善的，不能缺胳膊少腿，也不能寄希望于由第三方去完善，除非是一些非关键性的、加强体验性质的东西。</p>\n<p>另外，自动驾驶系统的功能相对单一，只是替代人去开车，不像手机有着太宽泛的应用，所以开发商本身也应该具备提供完善自动驾驶系统解决方案的能力。</p>\n<p>当然，作为开发商，在开发模式上，可以先做好基础架构，然后允许第三方开发者在上面添砖加瓦，事实上，百度就是这么做的，Apollo平台已经聚集了超过4.5万的开发者，这些做法并不矛盾，因为只要交付的是完善的系统方案即可。</p>\n<p>这么看来，自动驾驶系统好像真没必要一家或者两家独大，百家争鸣可能更有利于竞争，最终让消费者获益。相信这个逻辑也影响着众多入局自动驾驶的公司，给了他们前赴后继的勇气。</p>\n<p>事情果真如此吗？</p>\n<h3>2</h3>\n<h3><b>百家争鸣真的可以实现？</b></h3>\n<p>商业社会，<b>质量、成本、效率</b>是永远绕不开的“三角关系”。</p>\n<p>谁都希望得到“双高一低”--高质量、高效率同时低成本，但实际情况，<b>这是“不可能三角”，顶多只能得到其中两个。</b>把这个框架放在自动驾驶的百家争鸣上，冲突就随之而来。</p>\n<p>不同开发商的人才、资金、技术储备、开发效率都不一样，都来做这个事，重复开发不说，对各种资源的消耗，以及有可能出现的恶性竞争，显然和低成本背道而驰；即使每个开发商都能做出一样的质量、一样的成本，效率上也会有快慢，资金充足、人才丰富的会快一点，相反就有可能会慢一点；而如果既要高质量，又要高效率，那就得比拼谁的钱多，不同开发商手头的资金、融资能力、融资成本也是千差万别。</p>\n<p><b>不管从哪个角度看，都是既要又要还要的事，所以理论上不应该存在过多的自动驾驶系统开发商。</b></p>\n<p>只是，从开发商的角度，看法可能完全相反。</p>\n<p>在智能汽车最重要的应用场景，没有厂商希望自己变成局外人，如果在这场竞赛中能够最终获胜，那都是白花花的银子，这是相当有诱惑力的事情。往更长远的方向讲，传统造车有可能因为拥有自动驾驶开发能力，在汽车业的淘汰赛中占据主动，新势力也一样，软件公司则因为自动驾驶而开辟了新的蓝海。</p>\n<p>而且，现在新兴的产业机会并不多，好不容易等来了汽车业百年未有之大变局，当然要去搏杀，一开始就作壁上观，看着大好机会白白溜走，不是件好受的事。</p>\n<p>何况，现在才刚开战，胜负未分，敢于入场厮杀的公司，都不是吃素的，论资金、论人才、论技术储备，虽有差异，但说不上谁一定赢，谁一定输。既然如此，早早就退出，将市场拱手让人，这不是做生意应该有的姿态，即使最后战死，也好过一开始就做逃兵。</p>\n<p>公说公有理，婆说婆有理，最后只有交给市场。</p>\n<p>展望未来，从参与者的角度看，因为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YJ\">云集</a>了太多开发商，自动驾驶市场将会非常热闹；从竞争的角度看，自动驾驶市场将上演残酷的厮杀；从路径发展上看，很可能是大佬入局--资本砸钱--泡沫催化--泡沫形成--泡沫破灭--涅槃重生。</p>\n<p><b>自动驾驶需要一场泡沫，也应该有一场泡沫。</b></p>\n<p>从资本的角度看，自动驾驶大概率会先来一场资本盛宴，然后演变成一场资本泡沫，最后泡沫破灭之后，走出了真正的强者。</p>\n<p><b>对于国家、产业、消费者和最后走出的强者，这场泡沫是“白洞”，因为它造就了百年汽车最重大的革命；而对于因此而倒下的开发商和资本方，这场泡沫将是巨大的“黑洞”，吞噬一切。</b></p>\n<h3>3</h3>\n<h3><b>作为投资者，应该干嘛？</b></h3>\n<p>言归投资，要避免掉进“黑洞”，就需要寻找产业链里最有价值的东西，有两个值得重点跟进。</p>\n<p>第一，<b>AI芯片和算法</b>，现在的竞争格局，基本成了巨头们的角力场，而且都是两者通吃，特斯拉有FSD芯片和算法，百度有昆仑芯片和Apollo，华为有麒麟芯片和鸿蒙，连小鹏也说要自研芯片，和自己的NGP形成呼应。所以，不管软件公司还是整车厂，如果没有足够实力同时拿下芯片和算法，却要声称自研自动驾驶系统，这类公司很可能掉队。</p>\n<p>当然，对于整车厂而言，并非个个都要自己做自动驾驶系统，可以选择购买其他软件厂商的系统，自己则专注于整车设计、生产、基建、营销、售后等环节，也不失为好的策略。</p>\n<p>自动驾驶的研发是烧钱的活儿，AI芯片和算法人才也都非常紧缺，巨头们都在第一时间锁住人才，论财力，巨头们也不缺。如果后面才介入，基本连汤都难喝到。</p>\n<p>所以，押注这个领域，除了巨头，貌似也没其他选择了。</p>\n<p>第二，<b>激光雷达</b>，“格隆汇研究”公众号在前期的文章《激光雷达，自动驾驶赛道的新宠儿》做过专门的分析，这里不再赘述。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9ef019c47d40b874ba2dc071fa8f576\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">只讲一个最简单的底层逻辑，自动驾驶是人命关天的大事，对行驶过程中周遭的环境感知必须非常灵敏、精准和全面，而激光雷达这方面有着天然优势，远比摄像头、超声波雷达、毫米波雷达要牛。此前，激光雷达因为价格过万而被质疑商业化能力，现在华为已经成功将成本降到几百块的“白菜价”，量产障碍扫除，按照中国人做生意的脾性，后面会陆陆续续出现更多的激光雷达厂家。</p>\n<p>如果觉得这两个赛道太拥挤，也可以寻找一些细分领域有亮点公司，比如<b>专注做卡车自动驾驶系统的开发商</b>，这个领域有意思的地方在于，卡车的行驶场景和路线可以相对简单、固定，比如点对点的高速公路货运、港口装卸区的来回、工厂区的货物上下，这些地方容易实现人车分离，在港口区或者工厂区建空中行人区，人和车在空间上完全隔离，车上就没必要坐人，车撞人的概率就可以极大地降低。即使车撞上了，损失的是货物，不至于死人，因为人命才值钱。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5086df362e7f1465bf4f44805d8d61de\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这些公司的领导人懂得，和巨头拼资金、拼人才，不一定拼得过，所以不如选择差异化路线，深入挖掘一下巨头暂时忽略的细分领域，开发难度、开发成本、竞争压力会相对低一些。退一万步讲，即使哪天巨头们后知后觉，要大举杀入的时候，自己还可以凭借长期的积累，保留被巨头收编的资格。</p>\n<h3>4</h3>\n<h3><b>结语</b></h3>\n<p>自动驾驶的出现，实现汽车业过去一百年都没能实现的事情，这是足够大的生意，也是足够大、足够多的投资机会。</p>\n<p><b>但是，这些赛道仍然有很多等待突破的东西，有许多需要商业化落地和检验的东西，在这些东西没有明朗化之前，投资的坑是非常多的，借信息不对称，借投资者不明就里的时间窗口，趁机割韭菜的人，多的是。</b></p>\n<p>对于投资者而言，如果有能力在早期就看透底层逻辑，发掘到投资机会，可以大胆押注；等到形势明朗化，出现向上拐点，或者出现爆发迹象之时，再押注，也不会晚；在狂热期，泡沫吹大之时，有能力跟随泡沫起舞的，也不失为押注时机，但如果没有能力急流勇退，还是多一份冷静好。</p>\n<p><b>现在，也正需要这样一份冷静。</b></p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>自动驾驶需要一场泡沫</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n自动驾驶需要一场泡沫\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-21 21:11 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.gelonghui.com/p/461708><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>一个行业有“钱景”，必然引发一阵“骚乱”。\n十年前是智能手机，现在是智能汽车。作为智能汽车最引人注目的应用，自动驾驶无疑最能撩拨产业界的神经。现在，除了特斯拉、Google、百度这些先行者，连华为也进来了，并放出要吊打特斯拉的豪言。\n吊不吊打特斯拉有待验证，但是华为带来的自动驾驶首先在股市牵起一阵热潮。多个概念股相继涨停。\n\n从产业前景看，自动驾驶是星辰大海，但是从资本投入来看，它也可能成为吞噬...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/461708\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e90c8e408a27094af0ec585715f7e80c","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","BIDU":"百度","GOOG":"谷歌"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/461708","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2129871712","content_text":"一个行业有“钱景”，必然引发一阵“骚乱”。\n十年前是智能手机，现在是智能汽车。作为智能汽车最引人注目的应用，自动驾驶无疑最能撩拨产业界的神经。现在，除了特斯拉、Google、百度这些先行者，连华为也进来了，并放出要吊打特斯拉的豪言。\n吊不吊打特斯拉有待验证，但是华为带来的自动驾驶首先在股市牵起一阵热潮。多个概念股相继涨停。\n\n从产业前景看，自动驾驶是星辰大海，但是从资本投入来看，它也可能成为吞噬一切的黑洞。\n1\n双寡头还是百家争鸣？\n计算机革命开启了电子业硬件、软件各自独立又相互依存的格局，智能手机承载了这个衣钵，到现在的智能汽车，很自然会照葫芦画瓢。\n于是，在自动驾驶系统上，出现类似苹果封闭IOS系统和Google开放安卓系统的局面，代表有特斯拉FSD和Google Waymo。\n\n但是，和手机操作系统稳定的双寡头格局不同的是，除了特斯拉和Google，还有很多其他的参与者，软硬件通吃的厂商就有通用、小鹏，百度、苹果也说要造车，软件厂商就更多了，名气大如华为，小一点的有Pony.ai、Nuro.ai、图森未来等，图森未来更成为首家登陆美股的自动驾驶软件厂商。\n所以，有人提出自动驾驶不应该只有“IOS”和“安卓”，而是百家争鸣的局面。\n这种说法也不是没有道理，从理论上讲，智能手机操作系统只需要搭建基础的框架，其他的应用有待开发者去完善，之后再形成完善的生态系统。\n开发者不需要是操作系统公司，可以是第三方公司，觉得哪些功能有需求，就自己在源代码的基础上开发APP，这就类似于政府把地块整理好，把自己应该承担的基础设施建设好，然后供地产商在上面建住宅也好，建商场也行，建厂房、建写字楼都行，最终形成完善的城市设施。\n而且，手机的应用场景非常多，金融的、购物的、社交的、娱乐的，全都给操作系统公司做，等于城市的所有设施都让政府建，这将相当费劲和相当低效，倒不如把这些任务交给第三方开发者，同时让他们分享成果，一旦和众多的开发者、用户绑定在一起，就很容易形成垄断优势，新进入的操作系统就很难有生存空间。\n这是妥妥的三赢。\n但是，自动驾驶系统不一样，作为用户，你总不能拿到一个“裸系统”，然后再自己去安装刹车APP、方向盘APP、自动泊车APP吧，这得是多差的用户体验？要是忘记安装哪个APP，是不是意味着自动驾驶不了了？更要命的是，忘了装刹车APP就开自动上路，万一该刹车时不刹，那不等于拿人命开玩笑？\n\n换句话说，开发商给到用户的，不应该是一个仅仅整理好的“地块”，也不应该只建了部分基础设施的“地块”，而应该是一座具备完善设施的“城市”。所以，自动驾驶系统一出来就应该是完善的，不能缺胳膊少腿，也不能寄希望于由第三方去完善，除非是一些非关键性的、加强体验性质的东西。\n另外，自动驾驶系统的功能相对单一，只是替代人去开车，不像手机有着太宽泛的应用，所以开发商本身也应该具备提供完善自动驾驶系统解决方案的能力。\n当然，作为开发商，在开发模式上，可以先做好基础架构，然后允许第三方开发者在上面添砖加瓦，事实上，百度就是这么做的，Apollo平台已经聚集了超过4.5万的开发者，这些做法并不矛盾，因为只要交付的是完善的系统方案即可。\n这么看来，自动驾驶系统好像真没必要一家或者两家独大，百家争鸣可能更有利于竞争，最终让消费者获益。相信这个逻辑也影响着众多入局自动驾驶的公司，给了他们前赴后继的勇气。\n事情果真如此吗？\n2\n百家争鸣真的可以实现？\n商业社会，质量、成本、效率是永远绕不开的“三角关系”。\n谁都希望得到“双高一低”--高质量、高效率同时低成本，但实际情况，这是“不可能三角”，顶多只能得到其中两个。把这个框架放在自动驾驶的百家争鸣上，冲突就随之而来。\n不同开发商的人才、资金、技术储备、开发效率都不一样，都来做这个事，重复开发不说，对各种资源的消耗，以及有可能出现的恶性竞争，显然和低成本背道而驰；即使每个开发商都能做出一样的质量、一样的成本，效率上也会有快慢，资金充足、人才丰富的会快一点，相反就有可能会慢一点；而如果既要高质量，又要高效率，那就得比拼谁的钱多，不同开发商手头的资金、融资能力、融资成本也是千差万别。\n不管从哪个角度看，都是既要又要还要的事，所以理论上不应该存在过多的自动驾驶系统开发商。\n只是，从开发商的角度，看法可能完全相反。\n在智能汽车最重要的应用场景，没有厂商希望自己变成局外人，如果在这场竞赛中能够最终获胜，那都是白花花的银子，这是相当有诱惑力的事情。往更长远的方向讲，传统造车有可能因为拥有自动驾驶开发能力，在汽车业的淘汰赛中占据主动，新势力也一样，软件公司则因为自动驾驶而开辟了新的蓝海。\n而且，现在新兴的产业机会并不多，好不容易等来了汽车业百年未有之大变局，当然要去搏杀，一开始就作壁上观，看着大好机会白白溜走，不是件好受的事。\n何况，现在才刚开战，胜负未分，敢于入场厮杀的公司，都不是吃素的，论资金、论人才、论技术储备，虽有差异，但说不上谁一定赢，谁一定输。既然如此，早早就退出，将市场拱手让人，这不是做生意应该有的姿态，即使最后战死，也好过一开始就做逃兵。\n公说公有理，婆说婆有理，最后只有交给市场。\n展望未来，从参与者的角度看，因为云集了太多开发商，自动驾驶市场将会非常热闹；从竞争的角度看，自动驾驶市场将上演残酷的厮杀；从路径发展上看，很可能是大佬入局--资本砸钱--泡沫催化--泡沫形成--泡沫破灭--涅槃重生。\n自动驾驶需要一场泡沫，也应该有一场泡沫。\n从资本的角度看，自动驾驶大概率会先来一场资本盛宴，然后演变成一场资本泡沫，最后泡沫破灭之后，走出了真正的强者。\n对于国家、产业、消费者和最后走出的强者，这场泡沫是“白洞”，因为它造就了百年汽车最重大的革命；而对于因此而倒下的开发商和资本方，这场泡沫将是巨大的“黑洞”，吞噬一切。\n3\n作为投资者，应该干嘛？\n言归投资，要避免掉进“黑洞”，就需要寻找产业链里最有价值的东西，有两个值得重点跟进。\n第一，AI芯片和算法，现在的竞争格局，基本成了巨头们的角力场，而且都是两者通吃，特斯拉有FSD芯片和算法，百度有昆仑芯片和Apollo，华为有麒麟芯片和鸿蒙，连小鹏也说要自研芯片，和自己的NGP形成呼应。所以，不管软件公司还是整车厂，如果没有足够实力同时拿下芯片和算法，却要声称自研自动驾驶系统，这类公司很可能掉队。\n当然，对于整车厂而言，并非个个都要自己做自动驾驶系统，可以选择购买其他软件厂商的系统，自己则专注于整车设计、生产、基建、营销、售后等环节，也不失为好的策略。\n自动驾驶的研发是烧钱的活儿，AI芯片和算法人才也都非常紧缺，巨头们都在第一时间锁住人才，论财力，巨头们也不缺。如果后面才介入，基本连汤都难喝到。\n所以，押注这个领域，除了巨头，貌似也没其他选择了。\n第二，激光雷达，“格隆汇研究”公众号在前期的文章《激光雷达，自动驾驶赛道的新宠儿》做过专门的分析，这里不再赘述。\n只讲一个最简单的底层逻辑，自动驾驶是人命关天的大事，对行驶过程中周遭的环境感知必须非常灵敏、精准和全面，而激光雷达这方面有着天然优势，远比摄像头、超声波雷达、毫米波雷达要牛。此前，激光雷达因为价格过万而被质疑商业化能力，现在华为已经成功将成本降到几百块的“白菜价”，量产障碍扫除，按照中国人做生意的脾性，后面会陆陆续续出现更多的激光雷达厂家。\n如果觉得这两个赛道太拥挤，也可以寻找一些细分领域有亮点公司，比如专注做卡车自动驾驶系统的开发商，这个领域有意思的地方在于，卡车的行驶场景和路线可以相对简单、固定，比如点对点的高速公路货运、港口装卸区的来回、工厂区的货物上下，这些地方容易实现人车分离，在港口区或者工厂区建空中行人区，人和车在空间上完全隔离，车上就没必要坐人，车撞人的概率就可以极大地降低。即使车撞上了，损失的是货物，不至于死人，因为人命才值钱。\n\n这些公司的领导人懂得，和巨头拼资金、拼人才，不一定拼得过，所以不如选择差异化路线，深入挖掘一下巨头暂时忽略的细分领域，开发难度、开发成本、竞争压力会相对低一些。退一万步讲，即使哪天巨头们后知后觉，要大举杀入的时候，自己还可以凭借长期的积累，保留被巨头收编的资格。\n4\n结语\n自动驾驶的出现，实现汽车业过去一百年都没能实现的事情，这是足够大的生意，也是足够大、足够多的投资机会。\n但是，这些赛道仍然有很多等待突破的东西，有许多需要商业化落地和检验的东西，在这些东西没有明朗化之前，投资的坑是非常多的，借信息不对称，借投资者不明就里的时间窗口，趁机割韭菜的人，多的是。\n对于投资者而言，如果有能力在早期就看透底层逻辑，发掘到投资机会，可以大胆押注；等到形势明朗化，出现向上拐点，或者出现爆发迹象之时，再押注，也不会晚；在狂热期，泡沫吹大之时，有能力跟随泡沫起舞的，也不失为押注时机，但如果没有能力急流勇退，还是多一份冷静好。\n现在，也正需要这样一份冷静。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BIDU":0.9,"GOOG":0.9,"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2981,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":325816771,"gmtCreate":1615885444993,"gmtModify":1703494449196,"author":{"id":"3547592875462099","authorId":"3547592875462099","name":"bilbili","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6b6a37ad9c5c0980ccbdcb48c7bcb90","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3547592875462099","authorIdStr":"3547592875462099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n小i机器人向法院申请禁售iPhone，索赔100亿元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-07 11:37 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.jiemian.com/article/6569388.html><strong>界面新闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>记者 佘晓晨\n近日，小i机器人（上海智臻智能网络科技股份有限公司）向上海市高级人民法院提出行为保全申请（禁令），要求苹果公司立即停止涉及Siri的专利侵权，停止生产、销售、许诺销售、进口、使用，侵犯ZL200410053749.9发明专利的iPhone产品。上海市高级人民法院已于昨日接受小i提出的禁令申请，案件持续审理中。\n此前，中华人民共和国最高人民法院下达（2017）最高法行再34号行政判决书...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.jiemian.com/article/6569388.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/275844f4baec1cdf60dd0a969b6b4fc3","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.jiemian.com/article/6569388.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190268789","content_text":"记者 佘晓晨\n近日，小i机器人（上海智臻智能网络科技股份有限公司）向上海市高级人民法院提出行为保全申请（禁令），要求苹果公司立即停止涉及Siri的专利侵权，停止生产、销售、许诺销售、进口、使用，侵犯ZL200410053749.9发明专利的iPhone产品。上海市高级人民法院已于昨日接受小i提出的禁令申请，案件持续审理中。\n此前，中华人民共和国最高人民法院下达（2017）最高法行再34号行政判决书，终审判决苹果电脑贸易（上海）有限公司败诉，确认小i机器人上述专利权的有效性。去年8月，小i机器人向上海市高级人民法院提起诉讼，正式要求苹果公司停止专利侵权，并赔偿人民币100亿元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3373,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}