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迪利特里
2021-02-25
$越秀房产信托基金(00405)$
终于四块了
迪利特里
2021-01-28
那你们对京东估值多少？
根据快递量估算电商格局：拼多多进一步提升市占率
迪利特里
2020-08-28
$小米集团-W(01810)$
放量上涨，不要慌
迪利特里
2020-08-28
迪利特里
2020-08-03
是否有损耗？
迪利特里
2020-08-03
$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$
做空收益是最多100%？
迪利特里
2020-07-06
$二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN(TVIX)$
旁边写了个退市啥意思
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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 href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00405\">$越秀房产信托基金(00405)$</a>终于四块了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00405\">$越秀房产信托基金(00405)$</a>终于四块了","text":"$越秀房产信托基金(00405)$终于四块了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/361865804","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1896,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":318101697,"gmtCreate":1611845344819,"gmtModify":1703754905879,"author":{"id":"3548108611447101","authorId":"3548108611447101","name":"迪利特里","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/800ab3fe6d7db41a06141eedd3bc90ad","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548108611447101","authorIdStr":"3548108611447101"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"那你们对京东估值多少？","listText":"那你们对京东估值多少？","text":"那你们对京东估值多少？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/318101697","repostId":"1180244782","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1180244782","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1611646786,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1180244782?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-01-26 15:39","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"根据快递量估算电商格局：拼多多进一步提升市占率","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180244782","media":"华创悦享现代生活","summary":"预期阿里/京东/拼多多市占率分别为53%/22%/13%，其余电商平台占比近12%。","content":"<p>作者：王薇娜、胡琼方</p><p><b>核心观点</b></p><p><b>20年电商格局前瞻与主要结论：</b></p><p>根据20年月度社零、快递数据与占比估算的假设，我们更新<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>(PDD.US)12月跟踪预测：预计20年拼多多GMV增速在65%-75%左右；在电商行业的市占率将提升将近7.0pct左右。2020年全年网上零售11.76万亿，其中实物零售9.76万亿，yoy+14.8%，剥离OTA与外卖对网络社零的影响，我们预计电商成交额增长约25-30%左右。20全年快递业务量833亿件，yoy+31.2%。我们预计快递件数增长略高于实际电商GMV增长，即单件包裹的客单价略有降低，平均水平在98-117元左右。假设拼多多20年包裹单价略微提升至54元，则gmv+67%提振至1.68万亿左右，从全年GMV角度评估，我们预期阿里/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>/拼多多市占率分别为53%/22%/13%，其余电商平台占比近12%。</p><p><b>测算逻辑：</b></p><p><b>拼多多包裹数测算：</b>根据部分快递公司公布的占比做出“通达系”、顺丰以及极兔快递中拼多多包裹量占比假设，可大致测算出拼多多每月包裹数及增速。由于拼多多包裹单价较低，从用户端产生的退货较少，货损补发忽略不计。</p><p><b>拼多多每月GMV测算：</b>假设单件包裹客单价*包裹数=实际成交GMV（相比名义GMV，剥离了下单后取消付款以及未发货退款的部分）。通过将重复计入社零和线上零售的OTA和外卖剥离，算出社零中电商实际成交之和，可以大致算出拼多多的市占率。</p><p><b>参考校正值：</b>1.从财报披露各家电商服务型收入/推算take rate=GMV，再通过未成交率进行假设可计算出各家产生物流的GMV，则可计算出每月电商成交的阿里、京东、拼多多以及其他电商的市占率情况。由于未成交率、各家市占率、take rate短期不会出现过大波动。则可大致计算出市占情况→进一步矫正退货率和单件价格假设；</p><p><b>测算结果：</b></p><p>根据测算，我们预计拼多多GMV约1.7万亿，yoy+67%左右；主平台全年包裹数约303亿件，yoy+54%左右。全年包裹数占比行业包裹数36%（Q4占比42%左右）；客单价从51.1元（2019年）提升至55.4元（2020全年）。预期多多买菜的GMV与成交规模将提振总体GMV与订单总数。预期21年 “拼品牌”将是拼多多再度发力品牌化商品的增长期，我们预期未来拼多多将持续享受信息流成交的红利，补足平台服务与物流短板。</p><p><b>测算详情</b></p><p><b>具体测算：</b></p><p><b>1、计算社零中的电商实际GMV</b></p><p>社零的实物商品网上零售（2019年8.5W亿）中包含大约1.5-2万亿的OTA市场（包含线上酒店和旅游）和0.7万亿的外卖市场；电商真实成交6万亿左右。20年全年社零39万亿，其中商品零售35万亿，实物商品网上零售9.8万亿，yoy+14.8%。我们预计外卖市场0.8万亿，OTA市场约0.8万亿，排除两者干扰后，电商实际成交约7万亿。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15dff32fc4111cf9a7233cd6e8133927\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>线上OTA市场规模测算：根据艾瑞咨询数据，2018年中国OTA交易规模已达1.5万亿，预期到2019年将增长至1.8万亿。但由于20年疫情影响线上OTA成交，故测算依据美团已披露的财报期内利用美团酒旅收入/酒旅业务 take rate（大约9-10%）=美团酒旅业务GTV，美团酒旅GTV/美团的市占率情况则可大致得到期内OTA市场规模。（20Q4美团尚未披露酒旅收入，则通过去年同期季度波动进行合理假设）</p><p>餐饮外卖市场规模：主要通过美团外卖GTV/大致市占率+到店餐饮，与第三方数据进行对比调整。则可推算电商成交GMV：预期2020年电商成交GMV大约为8.2万亿，yoy+33%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62b910c52f18279d0f1d0c555ed6ade5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2、计算拼多多的包裹数</b></p><p>根据各家快递披露的单月包裹数以及极兔日均单量增长情况，根据估算情况假设拼多多包裹数在各家占比（极兔包裹数中假设88%来自于拼多多，“通达系”包裹中占比则为30-40%）；再根据国家邮政局披露的月频业务量数据，则可计算出通达系+顺丰的CR5之外的包裹数，假设拼多多大致占比CR5以及极兔以外的快递30-40%，则可大致推算出拼多多每月包裹数及占比。根据测算，我们认为拼多多包裹在电商行业内包裹数占比从20年初31%逐步提升至20年末36%左右，20年拼多多包裹数大致在303亿件左右，yoy+54%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aea58edab73ed6372796fb1ebaa14db5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"411\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3、推算各大电商平台GMV</b></p><p>拼多多GMV：通过上文测算的包裹数*假设客单价由51.1元提升至55.4元（这里的客单价会根据后文中测算的市占率调整到尽量缓慢提升）算出剥离取消订单以及未出现物流订单后GMV，通过/（1-未发货占比），算出可同比的GMV（因为GMV计算口径中取消订单与退货产生GMV也计入其中）。从GMV增速上看拼多多主平台GMV在疫情后逐步复苏，且相对受益于多多买菜高频入口带来的MAU提升。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f5627e19354ad95f815e393d9ffce25\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"425\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>阿里GMV：根据披露的佣金+客户服务收入数据，假设20Q1会因为疫情而降低技术服务费收入进而影响take rate（注：此处take rate=（客户管理收入+佣金收入）/GMV）下滑0.5-1.0pct至2.9%，Q2基本恢复至疫情前水平，Q3-Q4综合的平台电商take rate会在20年财年的基础上小幅提升至4.1%。通过佣金及客户服务收入/take rate 进而算出阿里基本GMV，在此基础上*（1-假设未发货率）则可大致算出剥离取消订单等未实际产生物流后的阿里GMV。</p><p>京东GMV=京东自营GMV+第三方平台GMV，京东自营GMV财报中已披露基本等于其商品销售收入，而第三方平台GMV则通过广告收入/广告货币化率算出，在此基础上*（1-假设未发货率）则可大致算出剥离取消订单等未实际产生物流后的京东第三方平台GMV。</p><p>根据以上三大电商的剥离未产生物流后的实际GMV/社零中剥离OTA与外卖的电商成交GMV则可算出大致的市占情况，根据此再调整以上假设值。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4fa8862aa1b155142d5659d31678a24\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"411\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4、拼多多估值</b></p><p>基于以上对拼多多GMV的测算以及市占率的提升，我们略上调《拼多多（PDD.O）深度：点数三大发家品类，进入成长新阶段》报告中的目标价：当前根据包裹数测算的GMV增长符合甚至存在超预期可能，公司战略稳步推进，品牌化过程尚未展开；考虑到多多买菜开城已超280个并首先进入上海；支付业务已申请注册支付商标并内测“多多钱包”。综合以上发展亮点，我们略上调22年货币化率预期，对应22年1211亿元营收给予15X-16X P/S，上调目标市值为2672-2850亿美元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eee52a91af5d8e423a9ea3126b896e1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5、风险提示</b></p><p>电商与社区团购监管政策的负面影响，疫情反复对消费的影响，电商增速不及预期等。</p>","source":"hcyxsh","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>根据快递量估算电商格局：拼多多进一步提升市占率</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n根据快递量估算电商格局：拼多多进一步提升市占率\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-01-26 15:39 北京时间 <a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/400029.html><strong>华创悦享现代生活</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：王薇娜、胡琼方核心观点20年电商格局前瞻与主要结论：根据20年月度社零、快递数据与占比估算的假设，我们更新拼多多(PDD.US)12月跟踪预测：预计20年拼多多GMV增速在65%-75%左右；在电商行业的市占率将提升将近7.0pct左右。2020年全年网上零售11.76万亿，其中实物零售9.76万亿，yoy+14.8%，剥离OTA与外卖对网络社零的影响，我们预计电商成交额增长约25-30%...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/400029.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e42c16a083ab273c19aaae21cdb697a0","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","PDD":"拼多多","09618":"京东集团-SW","JD":"京东"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/400029.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180244782","content_text":"作者：王薇娜、胡琼方核心观点20年电商格局前瞻与主要结论：根据20年月度社零、快递数据与占比估算的假设，我们更新拼多多(PDD.US)12月跟踪预测：预计20年拼多多GMV增速在65%-75%左右；在电商行业的市占率将提升将近7.0pct左右。2020年全年网上零售11.76万亿，其中实物零售9.76万亿，yoy+14.8%，剥离OTA与外卖对网络社零的影响，我们预计电商成交额增长约25-30%左右。20全年快递业务量833亿件，yoy+31.2%。我们预计快递件数增长略高于实际电商GMV增长，即单件包裹的客单价略有降低，平均水平在98-117元左右。假设拼多多20年包裹单价略微提升至54元，则gmv+67%提振至1.68万亿左右，从全年GMV角度评估，我们预期阿里/京东/拼多多市占率分别为53%/22%/13%，其余电商平台占比近12%。测算逻辑：拼多多包裹数测算：根据部分快递公司公布的占比做出“通达系”、顺丰以及极兔快递中拼多多包裹量占比假设，可大致测算出拼多多每月包裹数及增速。由于拼多多包裹单价较低，从用户端产生的退货较少，货损补发忽略不计。拼多多每月GMV测算：假设单件包裹客单价*包裹数=实际成交GMV（相比名义GMV，剥离了下单后取消付款以及未发货退款的部分）。通过将重复计入社零和线上零售的OTA和外卖剥离，算出社零中电商实际成交之和，可以大致算出拼多多的市占率。参考校正值：1.从财报披露各家电商服务型收入/推算take rate=GMV，再通过未成交率进行假设可计算出各家产生物流的GMV，则可计算出每月电商成交的阿里、京东、拼多多以及其他电商的市占率情况。由于未成交率、各家市占率、take rate短期不会出现过大波动。则可大致计算出市占情况→进一步矫正退货率和单件价格假设；测算结果：根据测算，我们预计拼多多GMV约1.7万亿，yoy+67%左右；主平台全年包裹数约303亿件，yoy+54%左右。全年包裹数占比行业包裹数36%（Q4占比42%左右）；客单价从51.1元（2019年）提升至55.4元（2020全年）。预期多多买菜的GMV与成交规模将提振总体GMV与订单总数。预期21年 “拼品牌”将是拼多多再度发力品牌化商品的增长期，我们预期未来拼多多将持续享受信息流成交的红利，补足平台服务与物流短板。测算详情具体测算：1、计算社零中的电商实际GMV社零的实物商品网上零售（2019年8.5W亿）中包含大约1.5-2万亿的OTA市场（包含线上酒店和旅游）和0.7万亿的外卖市场；电商真实成交6万亿左右。20年全年社零39万亿，其中商品零售35万亿，实物商品网上零售9.8万亿，yoy+14.8%。我们预计外卖市场0.8万亿，OTA市场约0.8万亿，排除两者干扰后，电商实际成交约7万亿。线上OTA市场规模测算：根据艾瑞咨询数据，2018年中国OTA交易规模已达1.5万亿，预期到2019年将增长至1.8万亿。但由于20年疫情影响线上OTA成交，故测算依据美团已披露的财报期内利用美团酒旅收入/酒旅业务 take rate（大约9-10%）=美团酒旅业务GTV，美团酒旅GTV/美团的市占率情况则可大致得到期内OTA市场规模。（20Q4美团尚未披露酒旅收入，则通过去年同期季度波动进行合理假设）餐饮外卖市场规模：主要通过美团外卖GTV/大致市占率+到店餐饮，与第三方数据进行对比调整。则可推算电商成交GMV：预期2020年电商成交GMV大约为8.2万亿，yoy+33%。2、计算拼多多的包裹数根据各家快递披露的单月包裹数以及极兔日均单量增长情况，根据估算情况假设拼多多包裹数在各家占比（极兔包裹数中假设88%来自于拼多多，“通达系”包裹中占比则为30-40%）；再根据国家邮政局披露的月频业务量数据，则可计算出通达系+顺丰的CR5之外的包裹数，假设拼多多大致占比CR5以及极兔以外的快递30-40%，则可大致推算出拼多多每月包裹数及占比。根据测算，我们认为拼多多包裹在电商行业内包裹数占比从20年初31%逐步提升至20年末36%左右，20年拼多多包裹数大致在303亿件左右，yoy+54%。3、推算各大电商平台GMV拼多多GMV：通过上文测算的包裹数*假设客单价由51.1元提升至55.4元（这里的客单价会根据后文中测算的市占率调整到尽量缓慢提升）算出剥离取消订单以及未出现物流订单后GMV，通过/（1-未发货占比），算出可同比的GMV（因为GMV计算口径中取消订单与退货产生GMV也计入其中）。从GMV增速上看拼多多主平台GMV在疫情后逐步复苏，且相对受益于多多买菜高频入口带来的MAU提升。阿里GMV：根据披露的佣金+客户服务收入数据，假设20Q1会因为疫情而降低技术服务费收入进而影响take rate（注：此处take rate=（客户管理收入+佣金收入）/GMV）下滑0.5-1.0pct至2.9%，Q2基本恢复至疫情前水平，Q3-Q4综合的平台电商take rate会在20年财年的基础上小幅提升至4.1%。通过佣金及客户服务收入/take rate 进而算出阿里基本GMV，在此基础上*（1-假设未发货率）则可大致算出剥离取消订单等未实际产生物流后的阿里GMV。京东GMV=京东自营GMV+第三方平台GMV，京东自营GMV财报中已披露基本等于其商品销售收入，而第三方平台GMV则通过广告收入/广告货币化率算出，在此基础上*（1-假设未发货率）则可大致算出剥离取消订单等未实际产生物流后的京东第三方平台GMV。根据以上三大电商的剥离未产生物流后的实际GMV/社零中剥离OTA与外卖的电商成交GMV则可算出大致的市占情况，根据此再调整以上假设值。4、拼多多估值基于以上对拼多多GMV的测算以及市占率的提升，我们略上调《拼多多（PDD.O）深度：点数三大发家品类，进入成长新阶段》报告中的目标价：当前根据包裹数测算的GMV增长符合甚至存在超预期可能，公司战略稳步推进，品牌化过程尚未展开；考虑到多多买菜开城已超280个并首先进入上海；支付业务已申请注册支付商标并内测“多多钱包”。综合以上发展亮点，我们略上调22年货币化率预期，对应22年1211亿元营收给予15X-16X 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQQQ\">$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$</a>做空收益是最多100%？","text":"$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$做空收益是最多100%？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/945358439","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4120,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":318101697,"gmtCreate":1611845344819,"gmtModify":1703754905879,"author":{"id":"3548108611447101","authorId":"3548108611447101","name":"迪利特里","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/800ab3fe6d7db41a06141eedd3bc90ad","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548108611447101","idStr":"3548108611447101"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"那你们对京东估值多少？","listText":"那你们对京东估值多少？","text":"那你们对京东估值多少？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/318101697","repostId":"1180244782","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1180244782","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1611646786,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1180244782?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-01-26 15:39","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"根据快递量估算电商格局：拼多多进一步提升市占率","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180244782","media":"华创悦享现代生活","summary":"预期阿里/京东/拼多多市占率分别为53%/22%/13%，其余电商平台占比近12%。","content":"<p>作者：王薇娜、胡琼方</p><p><b>核心观点</b></p><p><b>20年电商格局前瞻与主要结论：</b></p><p>根据20年月度社零、快递数据与占比估算的假设，我们更新<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>(PDD.US)12月跟踪预测：预计20年拼多多GMV增速在65%-75%左右；在电商行业的市占率将提升将近7.0pct左右。2020年全年网上零售11.76万亿，其中实物零售9.76万亿，yoy+14.8%，剥离OTA与外卖对网络社零的影响，我们预计电商成交额增长约25-30%左右。20全年快递业务量833亿件，yoy+31.2%。我们预计快递件数增长略高于实际电商GMV增长，即单件包裹的客单价略有降低，平均水平在98-117元左右。假设拼多多20年包裹单价略微提升至54元，则gmv+67%提振至1.68万亿左右，从全年GMV角度评估，我们预期阿里/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>/拼多多市占率分别为53%/22%/13%，其余电商平台占比近12%。</p><p><b>测算逻辑：</b></p><p><b>拼多多包裹数测算：</b>根据部分快递公司公布的占比做出“通达系”、顺丰以及极兔快递中拼多多包裹量占比假设，可大致测算出拼多多每月包裹数及增速。由于拼多多包裹单价较低，从用户端产生的退货较少，货损补发忽略不计。</p><p><b>拼多多每月GMV测算：</b>假设单件包裹客单价*包裹数=实际成交GMV（相比名义GMV，剥离了下单后取消付款以及未发货退款的部分）。通过将重复计入社零和线上零售的OTA和外卖剥离，算出社零中电商实际成交之和，可以大致算出拼多多的市占率。</p><p><b>参考校正值：</b>1.从财报披露各家电商服务型收入/推算take rate=GMV，再通过未成交率进行假设可计算出各家产生物流的GMV，则可计算出每月电商成交的阿里、京东、拼多多以及其他电商的市占率情况。由于未成交率、各家市占率、take rate短期不会出现过大波动。则可大致计算出市占情况→进一步矫正退货率和单件价格假设；</p><p><b>测算结果：</b></p><p>根据测算，我们预计拼多多GMV约1.7万亿，yoy+67%左右；主平台全年包裹数约303亿件，yoy+54%左右。全年包裹数占比行业包裹数36%（Q4占比42%左右）；客单价从51.1元（2019年）提升至55.4元（2020全年）。预期多多买菜的GMV与成交规模将提振总体GMV与订单总数。预期21年 “拼品牌”将是拼多多再度发力品牌化商品的增长期，我们预期未来拼多多将持续享受信息流成交的红利，补足平台服务与物流短板。</p><p><b>测算详情</b></p><p><b>具体测算：</b></p><p><b>1、计算社零中的电商实际GMV</b></p><p>社零的实物商品网上零售（2019年8.5W亿）中包含大约1.5-2万亿的OTA市场（包含线上酒店和旅游）和0.7万亿的外卖市场；电商真实成交6万亿左右。20年全年社零39万亿，其中商品零售35万亿，实物商品网上零售9.8万亿，yoy+14.8%。我们预计外卖市场0.8万亿，OTA市场约0.8万亿，排除两者干扰后，电商实际成交约7万亿。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15dff32fc4111cf9a7233cd6e8133927\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>线上OTA市场规模测算：根据艾瑞咨询数据，2018年中国OTA交易规模已达1.5万亿，预期到2019年将增长至1.8万亿。但由于20年疫情影响线上OTA成交，故测算依据美团已披露的财报期内利用美团酒旅收入/酒旅业务 take rate（大约9-10%）=美团酒旅业务GTV，美团酒旅GTV/美团的市占率情况则可大致得到期内OTA市场规模。（20Q4美团尚未披露酒旅收入，则通过去年同期季度波动进行合理假设）</p><p>餐饮外卖市场规模：主要通过美团外卖GTV/大致市占率+到店餐饮，与第三方数据进行对比调整。则可推算电商成交GMV：预期2020年电商成交GMV大约为8.2万亿，yoy+33%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62b910c52f18279d0f1d0c555ed6ade5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2、计算拼多多的包裹数</b></p><p>根据各家快递披露的单月包裹数以及极兔日均单量增长情况，根据估算情况假设拼多多包裹数在各家占比（极兔包裹数中假设88%来自于拼多多，“通达系”包裹中占比则为30-40%）；再根据国家邮政局披露的月频业务量数据，则可计算出通达系+顺丰的CR5之外的包裹数，假设拼多多大致占比CR5以及极兔以外的快递30-40%，则可大致推算出拼多多每月包裹数及占比。根据测算，我们认为拼多多包裹在电商行业内包裹数占比从20年初31%逐步提升至20年末36%左右，20年拼多多包裹数大致在303亿件左右，yoy+54%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aea58edab73ed6372796fb1ebaa14db5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"411\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3、推算各大电商平台GMV</b></p><p>拼多多GMV：通过上文测算的包裹数*假设客单价由51.1元提升至55.4元（这里的客单价会根据后文中测算的市占率调整到尽量缓慢提升）算出剥离取消订单以及未出现物流订单后GMV，通过/（1-未发货占比），算出可同比的GMV（因为GMV计算口径中取消订单与退货产生GMV也计入其中）。从GMV增速上看拼多多主平台GMV在疫情后逐步复苏，且相对受益于多多买菜高频入口带来的MAU提升。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f5627e19354ad95f815e393d9ffce25\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"425\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>阿里GMV：根据披露的佣金+客户服务收入数据，假设20Q1会因为疫情而降低技术服务费收入进而影响take rate（注：此处take rate=（客户管理收入+佣金收入）/GMV）下滑0.5-1.0pct至2.9%，Q2基本恢复至疫情前水平，Q3-Q4综合的平台电商take rate会在20年财年的基础上小幅提升至4.1%。通过佣金及客户服务收入/take rate 进而算出阿里基本GMV，在此基础上*（1-假设未发货率）则可大致算出剥离取消订单等未实际产生物流后的阿里GMV。</p><p>京东GMV=京东自营GMV+第三方平台GMV，京东自营GMV财报中已披露基本等于其商品销售收入，而第三方平台GMV则通过广告收入/广告货币化率算出，在此基础上*（1-假设未发货率）则可大致算出剥离取消订单等未实际产生物流后的京东第三方平台GMV。</p><p>根据以上三大电商的剥离未产生物流后的实际GMV/社零中剥离OTA与外卖的电商成交GMV则可算出大致的市占情况，根据此再调整以上假设值。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4fa8862aa1b155142d5659d31678a24\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"411\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4、拼多多估值</b></p><p>基于以上对拼多多GMV的测算以及市占率的提升，我们略上调《拼多多（PDD.O）深度：点数三大发家品类，进入成长新阶段》报告中的目标价：当前根据包裹数测算的GMV增长符合甚至存在超预期可能，公司战略稳步推进，品牌化过程尚未展开；考虑到多多买菜开城已超280个并首先进入上海；支付业务已申请注册支付商标并内测“多多钱包”。综合以上发展亮点，我们略上调22年货币化率预期，对应22年1211亿元营收给予15X-16X P/S，上调目标市值为2672-2850亿美元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eee52a91af5d8e423a9ea3126b896e1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5、风险提示</b></p><p>电商与社区团购监管政策的负面影响，疫情反复对消费的影响，电商增速不及预期等。</p>","source":"hcyxsh","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>根据快递量估算电商格局：拼多多进一步提升市占率</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n根据快递量估算电商格局：拼多多进一步提升市占率\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-01-26 15:39 北京时间 <a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/400029.html><strong>华创悦享现代生活</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：王薇娜、胡琼方核心观点20年电商格局前瞻与主要结论：根据20年月度社零、快递数据与占比估算的假设，我们更新拼多多(PDD.US)12月跟踪预测：预计20年拼多多GMV增速在65%-75%左右；在电商行业的市占率将提升将近7.0pct左右。2020年全年网上零售11.76万亿，其中实物零售9.76万亿，yoy+14.8%，剥离OTA与外卖对网络社零的影响，我们预计电商成交额增长约25-30%...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/400029.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e42c16a083ab273c19aaae21cdb697a0","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","PDD":"拼多多","09618":"京东集团-SW","JD":"京东"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/400029.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180244782","content_text":"作者：王薇娜、胡琼方核心观点20年电商格局前瞻与主要结论：根据20年月度社零、快递数据与占比估算的假设，我们更新拼多多(PDD.US)12月跟踪预测：预计20年拼多多GMV增速在65%-75%左右；在电商行业的市占率将提升将近7.0pct左右。2020年全年网上零售11.76万亿，其中实物零售9.76万亿，yoy+14.8%，剥离OTA与外卖对网络社零的影响，我们预计电商成交额增长约25-30%左右。20全年快递业务量833亿件，yoy+31.2%。我们预计快递件数增长略高于实际电商GMV增长，即单件包裹的客单价略有降低，平均水平在98-117元左右。假设拼多多20年包裹单价略微提升至54元，则gmv+67%提振至1.68万亿左右，从全年GMV角度评估，我们预期阿里/京东/拼多多市占率分别为53%/22%/13%，其余电商平台占比近12%。测算逻辑：拼多多包裹数测算：根据部分快递公司公布的占比做出“通达系”、顺丰以及极兔快递中拼多多包裹量占比假设，可大致测算出拼多多每月包裹数及增速。由于拼多多包裹单价较低，从用户端产生的退货较少，货损补发忽略不计。拼多多每月GMV测算：假设单件包裹客单价*包裹数=实际成交GMV（相比名义GMV，剥离了下单后取消付款以及未发货退款的部分）。通过将重复计入社零和线上零售的OTA和外卖剥离，算出社零中电商实际成交之和，可以大致算出拼多多的市占率。参考校正值：1.从财报披露各家电商服务型收入/推算take rate=GMV，再通过未成交率进行假设可计算出各家产生物流的GMV，则可计算出每月电商成交的阿里、京东、拼多多以及其他电商的市占率情况。由于未成交率、各家市占率、take rate短期不会出现过大波动。则可大致计算出市占情况→进一步矫正退货率和单件价格假设；测算结果：根据测算，我们预计拼多多GMV约1.7万亿，yoy+67%左右；主平台全年包裹数约303亿件，yoy+54%左右。全年包裹数占比行业包裹数36%（Q4占比42%左右）；客单价从51.1元（2019年）提升至55.4元（2020全年）。预期多多买菜的GMV与成交规模将提振总体GMV与订单总数。预期21年 “拼品牌”将是拼多多再度发力品牌化商品的增长期，我们预期未来拼多多将持续享受信息流成交的红利，补足平台服务与物流短板。测算详情具体测算：1、计算社零中的电商实际GMV社零的实物商品网上零售（2019年8.5W亿）中包含大约1.5-2万亿的OTA市场（包含线上酒店和旅游）和0.7万亿的外卖市场；电商真实成交6万亿左右。20年全年社零39万亿，其中商品零售35万亿，实物商品网上零售9.8万亿，yoy+14.8%。我们预计外卖市场0.8万亿，OTA市场约0.8万亿，排除两者干扰后，电商实际成交约7万亿。线上OTA市场规模测算：根据艾瑞咨询数据，2018年中国OTA交易规模已达1.5万亿，预期到2019年将增长至1.8万亿。但由于20年疫情影响线上OTA成交，故测算依据美团已披露的财报期内利用美团酒旅收入/酒旅业务 take rate（大约9-10%）=美团酒旅业务GTV，美团酒旅GTV/美团的市占率情况则可大致得到期内OTA市场规模。（20Q4美团尚未披露酒旅收入，则通过去年同期季度波动进行合理假设）餐饮外卖市场规模：主要通过美团外卖GTV/大致市占率+到店餐饮，与第三方数据进行对比调整。则可推算电商成交GMV：预期2020年电商成交GMV大约为8.2万亿，yoy+33%。2、计算拼多多的包裹数根据各家快递披露的单月包裹数以及极兔日均单量增长情况，根据估算情况假设拼多多包裹数在各家占比（极兔包裹数中假设88%来自于拼多多，“通达系”包裹中占比则为30-40%）；再根据国家邮政局披露的月频业务量数据，则可计算出通达系+顺丰的CR5之外的包裹数，假设拼多多大致占比CR5以及极兔以外的快递30-40%，则可大致推算出拼多多每月包裹数及占比。根据测算，我们认为拼多多包裹在电商行业内包裹数占比从20年初31%逐步提升至20年末36%左右，20年拼多多包裹数大致在303亿件左右，yoy+54%。3、推算各大电商平台GMV拼多多GMV：通过上文测算的包裹数*假设客单价由51.1元提升至55.4元（这里的客单价会根据后文中测算的市占率调整到尽量缓慢提升）算出剥离取消订单以及未出现物流订单后GMV，通过/（1-未发货占比），算出可同比的GMV（因为GMV计算口径中取消订单与退货产生GMV也计入其中）。从GMV增速上看拼多多主平台GMV在疫情后逐步复苏，且相对受益于多多买菜高频入口带来的MAU提升。阿里GMV：根据披露的佣金+客户服务收入数据，假设20Q1会因为疫情而降低技术服务费收入进而影响take rate（注：此处take rate=（客户管理收入+佣金收入）/GMV）下滑0.5-1.0pct至2.9%，Q2基本恢复至疫情前水平，Q3-Q4综合的平台电商take rate会在20年财年的基础上小幅提升至4.1%。通过佣金及客户服务收入/take rate 进而算出阿里基本GMV，在此基础上*（1-假设未发货率）则可大致算出剥离取消订单等未实际产生物流后的阿里GMV。京东GMV=京东自营GMV+第三方平台GMV，京东自营GMV财报中已披露基本等于其商品销售收入，而第三方平台GMV则通过广告收入/广告货币化率算出，在此基础上*（1-假设未发货率）则可大致算出剥离取消订单等未实际产生物流后的京东第三方平台GMV。根据以上三大电商的剥离未产生物流后的实际GMV/社零中剥离OTA与外卖的电商成交GMV则可算出大致的市占情况，根据此再调整以上假设值。4、拼多多估值基于以上对拼多多GMV的测算以及市占率的提升，我们略上调《拼多多（PDD.O）深度：点数三大发家品类，进入成长新阶段》报告中的目标价：当前根据包裹数测算的GMV增长符合甚至存在超预期可能，公司战略稳步推进，品牌化过程尚未展开；考虑到多多买菜开城已超280个并首先进入上海；支付业务已申请注册支付商标并内测“多多钱包”。综合以上发展亮点，我们略上调22年货币化率预期，对应22年1211亿元营收给予15X-16X 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