RLST的个人主页 - 老虎社区

RLST

RLST

暂无个人介绍

IP属地：未知

67关注

0粉丝

0主题

0勋章

2021-03-23

Wow

A bitcoin winter ahead? Crypto expert predicts just that, but after digital asset hits $300,000 at end of 2021<blockquote>比特币的冬天即将来临？加密货币专家正是这样预测的，但在数字资产到2021年底达到300,000美元之后</blockquote>

2021-03-13

Good

Tesla Stock Is Down. You Could Blame Joe Biden.<blockquote>特斯拉股价下跌。你可以责怪乔·拜登。</blockquote>

2021-03-10

Great

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-03-08

Oh

A Stock Market Crash May Be Coming: 6 Metrics You'll Want to Know<blockquote>股市崩盘可能即将到来：您需要了解的6个指标</blockquote>

2021-03-02

Wow

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-03-01

Wow

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-28

Wow

Gamestop And High Volatility Options<blockquote>游戏驿站和高波动性期权</blockquote>

2021-02-28

Ok

Why QuantumScape Stock Rose Then Fell Thursday<blockquote>为什么QuantumScape股票周四先涨后跌</blockquote>

2021-02-25

Good

The days of easy money in the stock market are now over<blockquote>股市轻松赚钱的日子现已结束</blockquote>

2021-02-24

Wow

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-22

Great

The Hopes That Rose and Fell With GameStop<blockquote>与游戏驿站一起兴衰的希望</blockquote>

2021-02-22

Interesting

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-22

Great

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-16

Interesting read

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-16

Hmmmm

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-15

Keep

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-11

Wow

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-08

True

Here’s What the GameStop Affair Has Taught Us<blockquote>以下是游戏驿站事件教给我们的</blockquote>

2021-02-08

Hmm

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-08

Wow

抱歉，原内容已删除

去老虎APP查看更多动态

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3555027716709439","uuid":"3555027716709439","gmtCreate":1591947659170,"gmtModify":1612080158109,"name":"RLST","pinyin":"rlst","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b7bffaca05b5c5fc2858ada8443840","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":0,"headSize":67,"tweetSize":36,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":0,"name":"","nameTw":"","represent":"","factor":"","iconColor":"","bgColor":""},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d-2","templateUuid":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d","name":"投资总监虎","description":"证券账户累计交易金额达到30万美元","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d20b23f1b6335407f882bc5c2ad12c0","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ada3b4533518ace8404a3f6dd192bd29","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/177f283ba21d1c077054dac07f88f3bd","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.14","exceedPercentage":"80.19%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37-1","templateUuid":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37","name":"博闻投资者","description":"累计交易超过10只正股","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-2","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"宗师交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到100次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad22cfbe2d05aa393b18e9226e4b0307","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36702e6ff3ffe46acafee66cc85273ca","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52eb88fa385cf5abe2616ed63781765","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"80.23%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-1","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"出道虎友","description":"加入老虎社区500天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e4d0ca1da0456dc7894c946d44bf9ab","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f2f65e8ce4cfaae8db2bea9b127f58b","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5948a31b6edf154422335b265235809","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"未知","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":353614101,"gmtCreate":1616491226003,"gmtModify":1634525558306,"author":{"id":"3555027716709439","authorId":"3555027716709439","name":"RLST","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b7bffaca05b5c5fc2858ada8443840","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555027716709439","idStr":"3555027716709439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/353614101","repostId":"1151503425","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151503425","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616490299,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1151503425?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-23 17:04","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"A bitcoin winter ahead? Crypto expert predicts just that, but after digital asset hits $300,000 at end of 2021<blockquote>比特币的冬天即将来临？加密货币专家正是这样预测的，但在数字资产到2021年底达到300,000美元之后</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151503425","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Bitcoin prices could reach $300,000 soon — but then sink into a dark period, if history is any gauge","content":"<p>Bitcoin prices could reach $300,000 soon — but then sink into a dark period, if history is any gauge, according to one expert.</p><p><blockquote>一位专家表示，比特币的价格可能很快就会达到30万美元，但如果以历史来衡量的话，随后就会陷入黑暗时期。</blockquote></p><p> Bobby Lee, co-founder and former CEO of crypto exchange BTCC, told&nbsp;CNBC Asiain a Monday interview that bitcoin&nbsp;tends to operate in four-year bull cycles, with big jumps in 2013, 2017 and this year’s most recent surge representing the latest uptrend for the world’s most prominent crypto.</p><p><blockquote>加密货币交易所BTCC联合创始人兼前首席执行官Bobby Lee在周一接受CNBC Asia采访时表示，比特币往往在四年牛市周期中运行，2013年、2017年大幅上涨，今年最近的飙升代表了世界上最著名的加密货币的最新上升趋势。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5df4f05d24e14fb490e45b1813e79564\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"587\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> However, if the pattern holds true, a fallow period for the asset created in 2009 is also likely to follow that could last two or three years, “if history plays itself out again,”Lee told CNBC, adding that he isn’t certain “history will repeat itself” but notes that that the nascent ascent since its inception has thus far followed a predictable pattern.</p><p><blockquote>然而，如果这种模式成立，2009年创建的资产也可能会出现休眠期，“如果历史再次重演”，这可能会持续两到三年，”Lee告诉CNBC，并补充说他不确定“历史会重演”，但他指出，自开始以来的新生上升迄今为止一直遵循可预测的模式。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t know if history will repeat itself but what we do know is that bitcoin bull market cycles come every four years and this is a big one,” Lee said.</p><p><blockquote>“我不知道历史是否会重演，但我们知道的是，比特币牛市周期每四年就会出现一次，而且这是一个大周期，”李说。</blockquote></p><p> Lee predicted that bitcoin could hit $100,000 by the end of the summer and possible touch $300,000 by the end of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>Lee预测，比特币到夏末可能会达到10万美元，到2021年底可能会达到30万美元。</blockquote></p><p> After a possible 10x surge by bitcoin at the end of the year, it is likely to come crashing back down to Earth, if it adheres to moves in its past two other bull phases.</p><p><blockquote>在年底比特币可能飙升10倍之后，如果它坚持过去另外两个牛市阶段的走势，它很可能会崩溃。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, bitcoin’s bullish trading patterns over the past decade don’t offer up a statistically robust sample size, but it may be something that upbeat investors cling to, at least, until values crater.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，比特币过去十年的看涨交易模式并没有提供统计上稳健的样本量，但乐观的投资者可能会坚持下去，至少在价值暴跌之前。</blockquote></p><p> “Bull-market cycles come and go and after a bull-market peak, inevitably it can go down by quite a bit and that’s when the bubble bursts,” Lee said.</p><p><blockquote>“牛市周期来来去去，在牛市峰值之后，牛市不可避免地会下跌相当多，这就是泡沫破裂的时候，”李说。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin is up 96% so far in 2021, compared with a nearly 7% year-to-date gain for the Dow Jones Industrial Average,a 5% rise for the S&amp;P 500 index,a 4% gain for the Nasdaq Composite Index&nbsp;and an over 8% decline for gold,FactSet data show.</p><p><blockquote>2021年迄今为止，比特币股价上涨了96%，而道琼斯工业平均指数今年迄今上涨了近7%，标普500指数上涨了5%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨了4%，FactSet数据显示，黄金下跌了8%以上。</blockquote></p><p> “In the crypto industry, we call it bitcoin winter and it can last for two to three years. So after it peaks out…people should be aware that it could fall as much as 80% to 90% of its value from the all-time peak,” he explained.</p><p><blockquote>“在加密货币行业，我们在比特币冬季看涨期权它，它可以持续两到三年。因此，在它达到顶峰后……人们应该意识到，它的价值可能会比历史峰值下降80%到90%，”他解释道。</blockquote></p><p> At last check, bitcoin was trading at $56,728, off less than 1% on Monday and not far from its recent all-time high at $61,556.59, according to CoinDesk.</p><p><blockquote>根据CoinDesk的数据，最后一次检查时，比特币的交易价格为56,728美元，比周一下跌不到1%，距离最近的历史高点61,556.59美元不远。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A bitcoin winter ahead? Crypto expert predicts just that, but after digital asset hits $300,000 at end of 2021<blockquote>比特币的冬天即将来临？加密货币专家正是这样预测的，但在数字资产到2021年底达到300,000美元之后</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA bitcoin winter ahead? Crypto expert predicts just that, but after digital asset hits $300,000 at end of 2021<blockquote>比特币的冬天即将来临？加密货币专家正是这样预测的，但在数字资产到2021年底达到300,000美元之后</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-23 17:04</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Bitcoin prices could reach $300,000 soon — but then sink into a dark period, if history is any gauge, according to one expert.</p><p><blockquote>一位专家表示，比特币的价格可能很快就会达到30万美元，但如果以历史来衡量的话，随后就会陷入黑暗时期。</blockquote></p><p> Bobby Lee, co-founder and former CEO of crypto exchange BTCC, told&nbsp;CNBC Asiain a Monday interview that bitcoin&nbsp;tends to operate in four-year bull cycles, with big jumps in 2013, 2017 and this year’s most recent surge representing the latest uptrend for the world’s most prominent crypto.</p><p><blockquote>加密货币交易所BTCC联合创始人兼前首席执行官Bobby Lee在周一接受CNBC Asia采访时表示，比特币往往在四年牛市周期中运行，2013年、2017年大幅上涨，今年最近的飙升代表了世界上最著名的加密货币的最新上升趋势。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5df4f05d24e14fb490e45b1813e79564\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"587\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> However, if the pattern holds true, a fallow period for the asset created in 2009 is also likely to follow that could last two or three years, “if history plays itself out again,”Lee told CNBC, adding that he isn’t certain “history will repeat itself” but notes that that the nascent ascent since its inception has thus far followed a predictable pattern.</p><p><blockquote>然而，如果这种模式成立，2009年创建的资产也可能会出现休眠期，“如果历史再次重演”，这可能会持续两到三年，”Lee告诉CNBC，并补充说他不确定“历史会重演”，但他指出，自开始以来的新生上升迄今为止一直遵循可预测的模式。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t know if history will repeat itself but what we do know is that bitcoin bull market cycles come every four years and this is a big one,” Lee said.</p><p><blockquote>“我不知道历史是否会重演，但我们知道的是，比特币牛市周期每四年就会出现一次，而且这是一个大周期，”李说。</blockquote></p><p> Lee predicted that bitcoin could hit $100,000 by the end of the summer and possible touch $300,000 by the end of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>Lee预测，比特币到夏末可能会达到10万美元，到2021年底可能会达到30万美元。</blockquote></p><p> After a possible 10x surge by bitcoin at the end of the year, it is likely to come crashing back down to Earth, if it adheres to moves in its past two other bull phases.</p><p><blockquote>在年底比特币可能飙升10倍之后，如果它坚持过去另外两个牛市阶段的走势，它很可能会崩溃。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, bitcoin’s bullish trading patterns over the past decade don’t offer up a statistically robust sample size, but it may be something that upbeat investors cling to, at least, until values crater.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，比特币过去十年的看涨交易模式并没有提供统计上稳健的样本量，但乐观的投资者可能会坚持下去，至少在价值暴跌之前。</blockquote></p><p> “Bull-market cycles come and go and after a bull-market peak, inevitably it can go down by quite a bit and that’s when the bubble bursts,” Lee said.</p><p><blockquote>“牛市周期来来去去，在牛市峰值之后，牛市不可避免地会下跌相当多，这就是泡沫破裂的时候，”李说。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin is up 96% so far in 2021, compared with a nearly 7% year-to-date gain for the Dow Jones Industrial Average,a 5% rise for the S&amp;P 500 index,a 4% gain for the Nasdaq Composite Index&nbsp;and an over 8% decline for gold,FactSet data show.</p><p><blockquote>2021年迄今为止，比特币股价上涨了96%，而道琼斯工业平均指数今年迄今上涨了近7%，标普500指数上涨了5%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨了4%，FactSet数据显示，黄金下跌了8%以上。</blockquote></p><p> “In the crypto industry, we call it bitcoin winter and it can last for two to three years. So after it peaks out…people should be aware that it could fall as much as 80% to 90% of its value from the all-time peak,” he explained.</p><p><blockquote>“在加密货币行业，我们在比特币冬季看涨期权它，它可以持续两到三年。因此，在它达到顶峰后……人们应该意识到，它的价值可能会比历史峰值下降80%到90%，”他解释道。</blockquote></p><p> At last check, bitcoin was trading at $56,728, off less than 1% on Monday and not far from its recent all-time high at $61,556.59, according to CoinDesk.</p><p><blockquote>根据CoinDesk的数据，最后一次检查时，比特币的交易价格为56,728美元，比周一下跌不到1%，距离最近的历史高点61,556.59美元不远。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-bitcoin-winter-ahead-crypto-expert-predicts-just-that-but-after-digital-asset-hits-300-000-at-end-of-2021-11616431972?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal","TSLA":"特斯拉","GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-bitcoin-winter-ahead-crypto-expert-predicts-just-that-but-after-digital-asset-hits-300-000-at-end-of-2021-11616431972?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1151503425","content_text":"Bitcoin prices could reach $300,000 soon — but then sink into a dark period, if history is any gauge, according to one expert.\nBobby Lee, co-founder and former CEO of crypto exchange BTCC, told CNBC Asiain a Monday interview that bitcoin tends to operate in four-year bull cycles, with big jumps in 2013, 2017 and this year’s most recent surge representing the latest uptrend for the world’s most prominent crypto.\n\nHowever, if the pattern holds true, a fallow period for the asset created in 2009 is also likely to follow that could last two or three years, “if history plays itself out again,”Lee told CNBC, adding that he isn’t certain “history will repeat itself” but notes that that the nascent ascent since its inception has thus far followed a predictable pattern.\n“I don’t know if history will repeat itself but what we do know is that bitcoin bull market cycles come every four years and this is a big one,” Lee said.\nLee predicted that bitcoin could hit $100,000 by the end of the summer and possible touch $300,000 by the end of 2021.\nAfter a possible 10x surge by bitcoin at the end of the year, it is likely to come crashing back down to Earth, if it adheres to moves in its past two other bull phases.\nTo be sure, bitcoin’s bullish trading patterns over the past decade don’t offer up a statistically robust sample size, but it may be something that upbeat investors cling to, at least, until values crater.\n“Bull-market cycles come and go and after a bull-market peak, inevitably it can go down by quite a bit and that’s when the bubble bursts,” Lee said.\nBitcoin is up 96% so far in 2021, compared with a nearly 7% year-to-date gain for the Dow Jones Industrial Average,a 5% rise for the S&P 500 index,a 4% gain for the Nasdaq Composite Index and an over 8% decline for gold,FactSet data show.\n“In the crypto industry, we call it bitcoin winter and it can last for two to three years. So after it peaks out…people should be aware that it could fall as much as 80% to 90% of its value from the all-time peak,” he explained.\nAt last check, bitcoin was trading at $56,728, off less than 1% on Monday and not far from its recent all-time high at $61,556.59, according to CoinDesk.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9,"GBTC":0.9,"XBTmain":0.9,"SQ":0.9,"BTCmain":0.9,"PYPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1319,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":326299907,"gmtCreate":1615646773709,"gmtModify":1703491875741,"author":{"id":"3555027716709439","authorId":"3555027716709439","name":"RLST","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b7bffaca05b5c5fc2858ada8443840","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555027716709439","idStr":"3555027716709439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/326299907","repostId":"1100128328","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100128328","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615563404,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1100128328?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-12 23:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock Is Down. You Could Blame Joe Biden.<blockquote>特斯拉股价下跌。你可以责怪乔·拜登。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100128328","media":"Barrons","summary":"Stock inTesla is lower after CNBC reported that the electric-vehicle company had a firein its Fremon","content":"<p>Stock inTesla&nbsp;is lower after CNBC reported that the&nbsp;electric-vehicle&nbsp;company&nbsp;had a firein its Fremont, Calif. plant, but the blaze probably isn’t the reason for the dip.</p><p><blockquote>CNBC报道电动汽车公司特斯拉在加利福尼亚州弗里蒙特发生火灾后，该公司股价走低。植物，但大火可能不是下降的原因。</blockquote></p><p>Fires are just a normal, albeit unfortunate, operating problem for any manufacturer. Tesla (ticker: TSLA) didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment about the fire or the damage it may have caused.</p><p><blockquote>对于任何制造商来说，火灾只是一个正常但不幸的操作问题。特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）没有立即回应有关火灾或火灾可能造成的损失的置评请求。</blockquote></p><p>President Joe Biden is probably responsible for the share-price decline, which left the stock about 2.7% lower in premarket trading, at about $680. It has beena wild weekfor Tesla stockholders. Shares started off the week at about $675,traded above $700and fell to about $560 before bounding back, up 4.7% Thursday, to just under $700.</p><p><blockquote>总统乔·拜登可能对股价下跌负有责任，该股在盘前交易中下跌约2.7%，至约680美元。对于特斯拉股东来说，这是疯狂的一周。本周初股价约为675美元，交易价格高于700美元，跌至约560美元，然后反弹，周四上涨4.7%，至略低于700美元。</blockquote></p><p>Nothing Tesla has done appears to be the reason for the recent volatility. It’s all about interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉所做的一切似乎都不是最近波动的原因。一切都与利率有关。</blockquote></p><p>That is where the president comes into the picture. Thursday evening, he addressed the nation, focusing on putting Covid-19 in the rearview mirror a year after the World Health Organization declared that a pandemic had begun.</p><p><blockquote>这就是总统发挥作用的地方。周四晚上，他向全国发表讲话，重点是在世界卫生组织宣布疫情已经开始一年后，将新冠肺炎(Covid-19)抛在脑后。</blockquote></p><p>“All adult Americans will be eligible to get a vaccine no later than May 1,” said the president, adding the federal government is setting up hundreds of vaccination sites and procuring millions more vaccine doses.</p><p><blockquote>总统说：“所有成年美国人都有资格在5月1日之前接种疫苗。”他补充说，联邦政府正在建立数百个疫苗接种点，并采购数百万剂疫苗。</blockquote></p><p>It’s good news, but the market is selling off Friday morning. For stocks, the speech represents almost too much of a good thing. The economy is reopening and, as a result,bond yields are rising, putting pressure on high-growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>这是个好消息，但周五早上市场正在抛售。对于股票来说，这次讲话几乎代表了太多的好事。经济正在重新开放，因此债券收益率正在上升，给高增长股票带来压力。</blockquote></p><p>Futures on the&nbsp;Nasdaq Composite&nbsp;Index, home to many highflying tech stocks, are down 1.6%.Dow Jones Industrial Averagefutures, on the other hand, are flat.</p><p><blockquote>拥有许多飙升的科技股的纳斯达克综合指数期货下跌1.6%。另一方面，道琼斯工业平均指数期货持平。</blockquote></p><p>Higher yields hurt richly valued, fast-growing companies more than others for a couple of reasons. One, they makes funding growth more expensive. Two, high- growth companies are expected generate most of their cash far in the future. That cash is a little less valuable in present terms when rates are high, compared with when rates are low. In a higher-rate environment, investors have more options to earn interest today, which puts pressure on high-growth stocks’ valuations.</p><p><blockquote>出于几个原因，较高的收益率对估值高、快速增长的公司的伤害比其他公司更大。第一，它们使融资增长更加昂贵。第二，高增长公司预计将在未来产生大部分现金。与利率低时相比，利率高时现金的价值较低。在利率较高的环境下，投资者如今有更多赚取利息的选择，这给高增长股票的估值带来压力。</blockquote></p><p>A Friday dip, however,doesn’t mean the end&nbsp;of the bull market in Tesla, EV stocks or the Nasdaq. Getting the economy back on its feet is a good thing. Investors just need a chance to adjust to the changing landscape.</p><p><blockquote>然而，周五的下跌并不意味着特斯拉、电动汽车股票或纳斯达克牛市的结束。让经济重新站稳脚跟是件好事。投资者只是需要一个机会来适应不断变化的形势。</blockquote></p><p>“There’s a good chance you, your families and friends will be able to get together in your backyard or in your neighborhood and have a cookout …and celebrate Independence Day,” Biden said. That is great news.</p><p><blockquote>拜登说：“你、你的家人和朋友很有可能能够在你的后院或附近聚会，野餐……庆祝独立日。”这是个好消息。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock Is Down. You Could Blame Joe Biden.<blockquote>特斯拉股价下跌。你可以责怪乔·拜登。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock Is Down. You Could Blame Joe Biden.<blockquote>特斯拉股价下跌。你可以责怪乔·拜登。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-12 23:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Stock inTesla&nbsp;is lower after CNBC reported that the&nbsp;electric-vehicle&nbsp;company&nbsp;had a firein its Fremont, Calif. plant, but the blaze probably isn’t the reason for the dip.</p><p><blockquote>CNBC报道电动汽车公司特斯拉在加利福尼亚州弗里蒙特发生火灾后，该公司股价走低。植物，但大火可能不是下降的原因。</blockquote></p><p>Fires are just a normal, albeit unfortunate, operating problem for any manufacturer. Tesla (ticker: TSLA) didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment about the fire or the damage it may have caused.</p><p><blockquote>对于任何制造商来说，火灾只是一个正常但不幸的操作问题。特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）没有立即回应有关火灾或火灾可能造成的损失的置评请求。</blockquote></p><p>President Joe Biden is probably responsible for the share-price decline, which left the stock about 2.7% lower in premarket trading, at about $680. It has beena wild weekfor Tesla stockholders. Shares started off the week at about $675,traded above $700and fell to about $560 before bounding back, up 4.7% Thursday, to just under $700.</p><p><blockquote>总统乔·拜登可能对股价下跌负有责任，该股在盘前交易中下跌约2.7%，至约680美元。对于特斯拉股东来说，这是疯狂的一周。本周初股价约为675美元，交易价格高于700美元，跌至约560美元，然后反弹，周四上涨4.7%，至略低于700美元。</blockquote></p><p>Nothing Tesla has done appears to be the reason for the recent volatility. It’s all about interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉所做的一切似乎都不是最近波动的原因。一切都与利率有关。</blockquote></p><p>That is where the president comes into the picture. Thursday evening, he addressed the nation, focusing on putting Covid-19 in the rearview mirror a year after the World Health Organization declared that a pandemic had begun.</p><p><blockquote>这就是总统发挥作用的地方。周四晚上，他向全国发表讲话，重点是在世界卫生组织宣布疫情已经开始一年后，将新冠肺炎(Covid-19)抛在脑后。</blockquote></p><p>“All adult Americans will be eligible to get a vaccine no later than May 1,” said the president, adding the federal government is setting up hundreds of vaccination sites and procuring millions more vaccine doses.</p><p><blockquote>总统说：“所有成年美国人都有资格在5月1日之前接种疫苗。”他补充说，联邦政府正在建立数百个疫苗接种点，并采购数百万剂疫苗。</blockquote></p><p>It’s good news, but the market is selling off Friday morning. For stocks, the speech represents almost too much of a good thing. The economy is reopening and, as a result,bond yields are rising, putting pressure on high-growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>这是个好消息，但周五早上市场正在抛售。对于股票来说，这次讲话几乎代表了太多的好事。经济正在重新开放，因此债券收益率正在上升，给高增长股票带来压力。</blockquote></p><p>Futures on the&nbsp;Nasdaq Composite&nbsp;Index, home to many highflying tech stocks, are down 1.6%.Dow Jones Industrial Averagefutures, on the other hand, are flat.</p><p><blockquote>拥有许多飙升的科技股的纳斯达克综合指数期货下跌1.6%。另一方面，道琼斯工业平均指数期货持平。</blockquote></p><p>Higher yields hurt richly valued, fast-growing companies more than others for a couple of reasons. One, they makes funding growth more expensive. Two, high- growth companies are expected generate most of their cash far in the future. That cash is a little less valuable in present terms when rates are high, compared with when rates are low. In a higher-rate environment, investors have more options to earn interest today, which puts pressure on high-growth stocks’ valuations.</p><p><blockquote>出于几个原因，较高的收益率对估值高、快速增长的公司的伤害比其他公司更大。第一，它们使融资增长更加昂贵。第二，高增长公司预计将在未来产生大部分现金。与利率低时相比，利率高时现金的价值较低。在利率较高的环境下，投资者如今有更多赚取利息的选择，这给高增长股票的估值带来压力。</blockquote></p><p>A Friday dip, however,doesn’t mean the end&nbsp;of the bull market in Tesla, EV stocks or the Nasdaq. Getting the economy back on its feet is a good thing. Investors just need a chance to adjust to the changing landscape.</p><p><blockquote>然而，周五的下跌并不意味着特斯拉、电动汽车股票或纳斯达克牛市的结束。让经济重新站稳脚跟是件好事。投资者只是需要一个机会来适应不断变化的形势。</blockquote></p><p>“There’s a good chance you, your families and friends will be able to get together in your backyard or in your neighborhood and have a cookout …and celebrate Independence Day,” Biden said. That is great news.</p><p><blockquote>拜登说：“你、你的家人和朋友很有可能能够在你的后院或附近聚会，野餐……庆祝独立日。”这是个好消息。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-is-down-you-could-blame-joe-biden-51615557806?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-is-down-you-could-blame-joe-biden-51615557806?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100128328","content_text":"Stock inTesla is lower after CNBC reported that the electric-vehicle company had a firein its Fremont, Calif. plant, but the blaze probably isn’t the reason for the dip.Fires are just a normal, albeit unfortunate, operating problem for any manufacturer. Tesla (ticker: TSLA) didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment about the fire or the damage it may have caused.President Joe Biden is probably responsible for the share-price decline, which left the stock about 2.7% lower in premarket trading, at about $680. It has beena wild weekfor Tesla stockholders. Shares started off the week at about $675,traded above $700and fell to about $560 before bounding back, up 4.7% Thursday, to just under $700.Nothing Tesla has done appears to be the reason for the recent volatility. It’s all about interest rates.That is where the president comes into the picture. Thursday evening, he addressed the nation, focusing on putting Covid-19 in the rearview mirror a year after the World Health Organization declared that a pandemic had begun.“All adult Americans will be eligible to get a vaccine no later than May 1,” said the president, adding the federal government is setting up hundreds of vaccination sites and procuring millions more vaccine doses.It’s good news, but the market is selling off Friday morning. For stocks, the speech represents almost too much of a good thing. The economy is reopening and, as a result,bond yields are rising, putting pressure on high-growth stocks.Futures on the Nasdaq Composite Index, home to many highflying tech stocks, are down 1.6%.Dow Jones Industrial Averagefutures, on the other hand, are flat.Higher yields hurt richly valued, fast-growing companies more than others for a couple of reasons. One, they makes funding growth more expensive. Two, high- growth companies are expected generate most of their cash far in the future. That cash is a little less valuable in present terms when rates are high, compared with when rates are low. In a higher-rate environment, investors have more options to earn interest today, which puts pressure on high-growth stocks’ valuations.A Friday dip, however,doesn’t mean the end of the bull market in Tesla, EV stocks or the Nasdaq. Getting the economy back on its feet is a good thing. Investors just need a chance to adjust to the changing landscape.“There’s a good chance you, your families and friends will be able to get together in your backyard or in your neighborhood and have a cookout …and celebrate Independence Day,” Biden said. That is great news.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1541,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323507671,"gmtCreate":1615351691093,"gmtModify":1703487759015,"author":{"id":"3555027716709439","authorId":"3555027716709439","name":"RLST","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b7bffaca05b5c5fc2858ada8443840","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555027716709439","idStr":"3555027716709439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323507671","repostId":"1166521966","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1754,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":320774006,"gmtCreate":1615183915105,"gmtModify":1703485319260,"author":{"id":"3555027716709439","authorId":"3555027716709439","name":"RLST","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b7bffaca05b5c5fc2858ada8443840","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555027716709439","idStr":"3555027716709439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh&nbsp;","listText":"Oh&nbsp;","text":"Oh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/320774006","repostId":"1174323549","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174323549","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615182391,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1174323549?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-08 13:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"A Stock Market Crash May Be Coming: 6 Metrics You'll Want to Know<blockquote>股市崩盘可能即将到来：您需要了解的6个指标</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174323549","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Over the past three weeks, the stock market has sent investors a stern warning: Equities can go down","content":"<p>Over the past three weeks, the stock market has sent investors a stern warning: Equities can go down, too.</p><p><blockquote>过去三周，股市向投资者发出了严厉警告：股市也可能下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC), iconic<b>Dow Jones Industrial Average</b>(DJINDICES:^DJI), and growth-oriented<b>Nasdaq Composite</b>(NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC)reveling in record-breaking bounce-back rallies from the March 23, 2020, bear market low, the conditions areripe for a stock market crash.</p><p><blockquote>尽管基准<b>标普500</b>(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)，标志性<b>道琼斯工业平均指数</b>(DJINDICES：^DJI)，并以增长为导向<b>纳斯达克复合材料</b>(NASDAQINDEX：^IXIC)陶醉于从2020年3月23日熊市低点破纪录的反弹，股市崩盘的条件正在准备中。</blockquote></p><p> Since emotion is the primary driver of very short-term price movements, we're never going to know precisely when a crash or correction is coming. But make no mistake about it, crashes and corrections are an inevitable part of the investing cycle, and some would say the price of admission to the greatest wealth-creating tool on the planet.</p><p><blockquote>由于情绪是短期价格变动的主要驱动力，我们永远无法准确知道崩盘或调整何时到来。但毫无疑问，崩盘和调整是投资周期中不可避免的一部分，有些人会说这是进入这个星球上最伟大的财富创造工具的代价。</blockquote></p><p> With this in mind, here are six stock market crash metrics every investor should have in mind.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这一点，以下是每个投资者都应该牢记的六个股市崩盘指标。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. A Shiller P/E greater than 30 leads to a bear market, historically</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.从历史上看，席勒市盈率大于30会导致熊市</b></blockquote></p><p> As noted, the market doesn't often give us telltale signs that a crash is coming. One of the very few indicators that, thus far, has apretty immaculate track record of calling crashesis the Shiller S&amp;P 500 price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. It's a P/E ratio based on inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>如前所述，市场并不经常给我们崩溃即将到来的迹象。到目前为止，席勒·标普500市盈率（P/E）是极少数在预测崩盘方面有着完美记录的指标之一。这是基于过去10年经通货膨胀调整的收益的市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> Over the past 150 years, the average Shiller P/E reading is 16.79. As of March 3, 2021, the Shiller P/E stood at 34.59 --more than double the historic average.</p><p><blockquote>过去150年来，席勒市盈率平均值为16.79。截至2021年3月3日，席勒市盈率为34.59，是历史平均水平的两倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Here's where it gets interesting. There have been only five bull market rallies in history where the Shiller P/E for the S&amp;P 500 surpassed 30 and held for a period of time. A few of these periods might ring a bell, such as the Great Depression, the dot-com bubble, and the coronavirus crash. Admittedly, the March 2020 crash had nothing to do with valuations and was purely a response to a once-in-a-generation pandemic. Nevertheless, it doesn't change the fact that the four previous instances of the Shiller P/E surpassing 30 have led to declines in the S&amp;P 500 ranging between 20% and 89%.</p><p><blockquote>这就是有趣的地方。历史上只有五次牛市反弹，标普500的席勒市盈率超过30并持续一段时间。其中一些时期可能会敲响警钟，例如大萧条、互联网泡沫和冠状病毒崩溃。诚然，2020年3月的崩盘与估值无关，纯粹是对千载难逢的疫情的回应。尽管如此，这并不能改变席勒市盈率前四次超过30导致标普500下跌20%至89%的事实。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, history suggests that when the Shiller P/E heads above 30, a decline or a full-on bear market soon follows.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，历史表明，当席勒市盈率超过30时，下跌或全面熊市很快就会随之而来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Corrections occur every 1.87 years</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.每1.87年进行一次修正</b></blockquote></p><p> No matter what sort of decline awaits investors in the future, it's important to recognize just how common these downward moves in the stock market are.</p><p><blockquote>无论未来等待投资者的是什么样的下跌，重要的是要认识到股市的这些下跌走势是多么普遍。</blockquote></p><p> According to data from market analytics company Yardeni Research, there have been 38 declines of at least 10% in the widely followedS&amp;P 500since the beginning of 1950. Over this 71-year span, we're talking about a double-digit decline every 1.87 years, on average.</p><p><blockquote>根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，广受关注的标准普尔500指数已有38次下跌至少10%。在这71年的时间里，我们平均每1.87年就会出现两位数的下降。</blockquote></p><p> Keep in mind that averages are exactly that -- averages. There have been long periods in which corrections were few and far between. For example, there wasn't a single double-digit crash or correction between 1991 and 1996. By comparison, there have been seven double-digit percentage declines in the past 11 years, with at least eight other drops ranging from 5.8% to 9.9%.</p><p><blockquote>记住，平均值就是平均值。在很长一段时间里，修正很少。例如，1991年至1996年间没有发生过一次两位数的崩盘或调整。相比之下，过去11年中有7次出现两位数的百分比下降，另外至少有8次下降，降幅在5.8%至9.9%之间。</blockquote></p><p> Corrections are a healthy and normal occurrence.</p><p><blockquote>纠正是健康和正常的事情。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. The average correction is six months long</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.平均回调时间长达六个月</b></blockquote></p><p> Although corrections tend to bum out optimists, here's some good news: Most crashes and corrections don't last very long.</p><p><blockquote>尽管调整往往会让乐观主义者感到沮丧，但这里有一些好消息：大多数崩溃和调整不会持续很长时间。</blockquote></p><p> Dating back to 1950, 24 of the S&amp;P 500's 38 double-digit percentage corrections have found their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days (about 3.5 months). It took another seven between 157 and 288 calendar days to hit their trough. This means only seven significant declines in the market lasted longer than a year over the past seven-plus decades.</p><p><blockquote>追溯到1950年，标普500 38次两位数百分比修正中，有24次在104个或更短的日历日（约3.5个月）内触底。在157到288个日历日之间，又过了7天才达到低谷。这意味着在过去的七十多年里，只有七次市场大幅下跌持续时间超过一年。</blockquote></p><p> When we add those up, the S&amp;P 500 has spent 7,168 days in correction since 1950. This works out to an average correction length of 188 days, orjust over six months. Compare this figure to the 11-year bull market we just exited, and you can see why it pays to be an optimist.</p><p><blockquote>当我们把这些加起来时，标普500自1950年以来已经花了7,168天进行修正。这意味着平均修正时间为188天，或者说刚刚超过6个月。将这个数字与我们刚刚退出的11年牛市进行比较，你就会明白为什么乐观是值得的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Modern-era corrections are a month shorter, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.现代的矫正平均要短一个月</b></blockquote></p><p> Cue the \"but wait -- there's more\" music.</p><p><blockquote>提示“但是等等——还有更多”的音乐。</blockquote></p><p> Even though corrections and crashes have been relatively short-lived over the past 71 years, they're even shorter in the modern era. I'm defining \"modern era\" as the rise of computers, which have assisted immensely with trading and providing supply-demand balance to equities. I'm arbitrarily using 1985 as the beginning of this modern era.</p><p><blockquote>尽管在过去的71年里，调整和崩盘相对短暂，但在现代，它们的时间甚至更短。我将“现代时代”定义为计算机的崛起，它极大地帮助了交易并为股票提供了供需平衡。我武断地用1985年作为这个现代时代的开始。</blockquote></p><p> Since 1985, the S&amp;P 500 has undergone 16 double-digit declines. These include the dot-com bubble, which at 929 calendar days is the longest decline in the benchmark index's history. Even with this outlier, the average length of a crash or correction in the modern era is only 155 days. That's a full month shorter than the historical average for the broad-based index.</p><p><blockquote>自1985年以来，标普500经历了16次两位数的下跌。其中包括互联网泡沫，929个日历日是基准指数历史上最长的下跌。即使有这个异常值，现代崩盘或调整的平均持续时间也只有155天。这比基础广泛的指数的历史平均水平短了整整一个月。</blockquote></p><p> With the internet giving retail investors instant access to information, the barriers that once existed between Wall Street and Main Streethave been torn down. This has played a key role in shortening the length of corrections and crashes.</p><p><blockquote>随着互联网让散户投资者能够即时获取信息，华尔街和大街之间曾经存在的壁垒已经被拆除。这在缩短修正和崩溃的时间方面发挥了关键作用。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>5. 70% of the market's worst days are followed by its best gains</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.70%的市场最糟糕的日子之后都是最好的涨幅</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting statistic that's bound to raise an eyebrow or two is the correlation between the stock market's best and worst days. While some folks might be tempted to run for cover at the first sign of trouble, history shows that this isthe worst possible thing to do.</p><p><blockquote>另一个肯定会引起人们注意的有趣统计数据是股市最好的日子和最差的日子之间的相关性。虽然有些人可能会在遇到麻烦的第一个迹象时试图逃跑，但历史表明，这是最糟糕的事情。</blockquote></p><p> Last year, J.P. Morgan Asset Management released what's become an annual report that examines the rolling 20-year returns of the S&amp;P 500. In particular, J.P. Morgan Asset Management looked at how investors' returns would differ if they missed only a handful of the market's best days over a 20-year period. Between Jan. 3, 2000, and Dec. 31, 2019, missing just the 20 best days would have effectively wiped out a 6% annual average return.</p><p><blockquote>去年，摩根资产管理公司发布了一份年度报告，研究了标普500 20年的滚动回报。摩根大通资产管理公司特别研究了如果投资者在20年期间只错过了市场最好的几天，他们的回报会有何不同。2000年1月3日至2019年12月31日期间，如果错过20个最好的日子，就会有效地抹去6%的年平均回报率。</blockquote></p><p> But what really stands out is how close the S&amp;P 500's best and worst days occur to each other. According to the \"Impact of Being Out of the Market\" report, from Jan. 3, 2000, through April 19, 2020, \"Seven of the ten worst days were followed the NEXT DAY [emphasis by J.P. Morgan Asset Management] by either top 10 returns over the 20 years or top 10 returns for their respective years.\"</p><p><blockquote>但真正引人注目的是标普500最好的日子和最糟糕的日子是多么接近。根据“退出市场的影响”报告，从2000年1月3日到2020年4月19日，“最糟糕的十天中有七天在第二天（摩根资产管理公司强调）之后出现了20年来的前10名回报或各自年份的前10名回报。”</blockquote></p><p> If you try to game the market, you're the one that gets played.</p><p><blockquote>如果你试图玩弄市场，你就是被玩弄的人。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6. Long-term investors are batting 1.000</b></p><p><blockquote><b>6.长期投资者冲击1.000</b></blockquote></p><p> I saved thebest stock market crash metric for last.</p><p><blockquote>我把最好的股市崩盘指标留到了最后。</blockquote></p><p> A bull market rally has eventually put each and every one of these 38 declines in the rearview mirror. And in many instances, it took just weeks or months to erase the declines. For practical purposes, it doesn't matter when you buy during a correction or crash. As long as you buy stakes in an assortment of high-quality, innovative businesses, and you hold those stocks for long periods of time, you have an exceptionally good chance of making money.</p><p><blockquote>牛市反弹最终让这38次下跌中的每一次都成为过去。在许多情况下，只需几周或几个月就可以消除下降。出于实际目的，您何时在调整或崩盘期间买入并不重要。只要你购买各种高质量、创新企业的股份，并长期持有这些股票，你就有非常好的赚钱机会。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further proof, data from Crestmont Research on the S&amp;P 500 shows thatat no pointbetween 1919 and 2019 have rolling 20-year returns on the index ever been negative. In fact, only two ending years out of this 101-year period yielded average annual total returns (that is, including dividends) of less than 5%. If you buy with the intent of holding for a really long time, historical data suggests you're going to do very well.</p><p><blockquote>如果你需要进一步的证据，Crestmont Research关于标普500的数据显示，1919年至2019年间，该指数的20年滚动回报率从未为负。事实上，在这101年的时期中，只有两个年末的平均年总回报率（即包括股息）低于5%。如果你买入的目的是长期持有，历史数据表明你会做得很好。</blockquote></p><p> <b>10 stocks that could be the biggest winners of the stock market crash</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10只股票可能成为股市崩盘的最大赢家</b></blockquote></p><p> When investing geniuses David and Tom Gardner have an investing tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the newsletter they have run for over a decade,<i>Motley Fool Stock Advisor</i>, has quadrupled the market.*</p><p><blockquote>当投资天才大卫·加德纳和汤姆·加德纳有投资建议时，倾听是值得的。毕竟，他们经营了十多年的时事通讯，<i>杂色傻瓜股票顾问</i>，使市场翻了两番。</blockquote></p><p> David and Tom just revealed what they believe are the<b>ten best buys</b>for investors right now… And while timing isn't everything, the history of Tom and David's stock picks shows that it pays to get in early on their best ideas.</p><p><blockquote>大卫和汤姆刚刚透露了他们认为是<b>十大最佳购买</b>对于现在的投资者来说……虽然时机不是一切，但汤姆和大卫选股的历史表明，尽早了解他们的最佳想法是值得的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A Stock Market Crash May Be Coming: 6 Metrics You'll Want to Know<blockquote>股市崩盘可能即将到来：您需要了解的6个指标</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA Stock Market Crash May Be Coming: 6 Metrics You'll Want to Know<blockquote>股市崩盘可能即将到来：您需要了解的6个指标</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-08 13:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Over the past three weeks, the stock market has sent investors a stern warning: Equities can go down, too.</p><p><blockquote>过去三周，股市向投资者发出了严厉警告：股市也可能下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC), iconic<b>Dow Jones Industrial Average</b>(DJINDICES:^DJI), and growth-oriented<b>Nasdaq Composite</b>(NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC)reveling in record-breaking bounce-back rallies from the March 23, 2020, bear market low, the conditions areripe for a stock market crash.</p><p><blockquote>尽管基准<b>标普500</b>(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)，标志性<b>道琼斯工业平均指数</b>(DJINDICES：^DJI)，并以增长为导向<b>纳斯达克复合材料</b>(NASDAQINDEX：^IXIC)陶醉于从2020年3月23日熊市低点破纪录的反弹，股市崩盘的条件正在准备中。</blockquote></p><p> Since emotion is the primary driver of very short-term price movements, we're never going to know precisely when a crash or correction is coming. But make no mistake about it, crashes and corrections are an inevitable part of the investing cycle, and some would say the price of admission to the greatest wealth-creating tool on the planet.</p><p><blockquote>由于情绪是短期价格变动的主要驱动力，我们永远无法准确知道崩盘或调整何时到来。但毫无疑问，崩盘和调整是投资周期中不可避免的一部分，有些人会说这是进入这个星球上最伟大的财富创造工具的代价。</blockquote></p><p> With this in mind, here are six stock market crash metrics every investor should have in mind.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这一点，以下是每个投资者都应该牢记的六个股市崩盘指标。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. A Shiller P/E greater than 30 leads to a bear market, historically</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.从历史上看，席勒市盈率大于30会导致熊市</b></blockquote></p><p> As noted, the market doesn't often give us telltale signs that a crash is coming. One of the very few indicators that, thus far, has apretty immaculate track record of calling crashesis the Shiller S&amp;P 500 price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. It's a P/E ratio based on inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>如前所述，市场并不经常给我们崩溃即将到来的迹象。到目前为止，席勒·标普500市盈率（P/E）是极少数在预测崩盘方面有着完美记录的指标之一。这是基于过去10年经通货膨胀调整的收益的市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> Over the past 150 years, the average Shiller P/E reading is 16.79. As of March 3, 2021, the Shiller P/E stood at 34.59 --more than double the historic average.</p><p><blockquote>过去150年来，席勒市盈率平均值为16.79。截至2021年3月3日，席勒市盈率为34.59，是历史平均水平的两倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Here's where it gets interesting. There have been only five bull market rallies in history where the Shiller P/E for the S&amp;P 500 surpassed 30 and held for a period of time. A few of these periods might ring a bell, such as the Great Depression, the dot-com bubble, and the coronavirus crash. Admittedly, the March 2020 crash had nothing to do with valuations and was purely a response to a once-in-a-generation pandemic. Nevertheless, it doesn't change the fact that the four previous instances of the Shiller P/E surpassing 30 have led to declines in the S&amp;P 500 ranging between 20% and 89%.</p><p><blockquote>这就是有趣的地方。历史上只有五次牛市反弹，标普500的席勒市盈率超过30并持续一段时间。其中一些时期可能会敲响警钟，例如大萧条、互联网泡沫和冠状病毒崩溃。诚然，2020年3月的崩盘与估值无关，纯粹是对千载难逢的疫情的回应。尽管如此，这并不能改变席勒市盈率前四次超过30导致标普500下跌20%至89%的事实。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, history suggests that when the Shiller P/E heads above 30, a decline or a full-on bear market soon follows.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，历史表明，当席勒市盈率超过30时，下跌或全面熊市很快就会随之而来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Corrections occur every 1.87 years</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.每1.87年进行一次修正</b></blockquote></p><p> No matter what sort of decline awaits investors in the future, it's important to recognize just how common these downward moves in the stock market are.</p><p><blockquote>无论未来等待投资者的是什么样的下跌，重要的是要认识到股市的这些下跌走势是多么普遍。</blockquote></p><p> According to data from market analytics company Yardeni Research, there have been 38 declines of at least 10% in the widely followedS&amp;P 500since the beginning of 1950. Over this 71-year span, we're talking about a double-digit decline every 1.87 years, on average.</p><p><blockquote>根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，广受关注的标准普尔500指数已有38次下跌至少10%。在这71年的时间里，我们平均每1.87年就会出现两位数的下降。</blockquote></p><p> Keep in mind that averages are exactly that -- averages. There have been long periods in which corrections were few and far between. For example, there wasn't a single double-digit crash or correction between 1991 and 1996. By comparison, there have been seven double-digit percentage declines in the past 11 years, with at least eight other drops ranging from 5.8% to 9.9%.</p><p><blockquote>记住，平均值就是平均值。在很长一段时间里，修正很少。例如，1991年至1996年间没有发生过一次两位数的崩盘或调整。相比之下，过去11年中有7次出现两位数的百分比下降，另外至少有8次下降，降幅在5.8%至9.9%之间。</blockquote></p><p> Corrections are a healthy and normal occurrence.</p><p><blockquote>纠正是健康和正常的事情。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. The average correction is six months long</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.平均回调时间长达六个月</b></blockquote></p><p> Although corrections tend to bum out optimists, here's some good news: Most crashes and corrections don't last very long.</p><p><blockquote>尽管调整往往会让乐观主义者感到沮丧，但这里有一些好消息：大多数崩溃和调整不会持续很长时间。</blockquote></p><p> Dating back to 1950, 24 of the S&amp;P 500's 38 double-digit percentage corrections have found their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days (about 3.5 months). It took another seven between 157 and 288 calendar days to hit their trough. This means only seven significant declines in the market lasted longer than a year over the past seven-plus decades.</p><p><blockquote>追溯到1950年，标普500 38次两位数百分比修正中，有24次在104个或更短的日历日（约3.5个月）内触底。在157到288个日历日之间，又过了7天才达到低谷。这意味着在过去的七十多年里，只有七次市场大幅下跌持续时间超过一年。</blockquote></p><p> When we add those up, the S&amp;P 500 has spent 7,168 days in correction since 1950. This works out to an average correction length of 188 days, orjust over six months. Compare this figure to the 11-year bull market we just exited, and you can see why it pays to be an optimist.</p><p><blockquote>当我们把这些加起来时，标普500自1950年以来已经花了7,168天进行修正。这意味着平均修正时间为188天，或者说刚刚超过6个月。将这个数字与我们刚刚退出的11年牛市进行比较，你就会明白为什么乐观是值得的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Modern-era corrections are a month shorter, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.现代的矫正平均要短一个月</b></blockquote></p><p> Cue the \"but wait -- there's more\" music.</p><p><blockquote>提示“但是等等——还有更多”的音乐。</blockquote></p><p> Even though corrections and crashes have been relatively short-lived over the past 71 years, they're even shorter in the modern era. I'm defining \"modern era\" as the rise of computers, which have assisted immensely with trading and providing supply-demand balance to equities. I'm arbitrarily using 1985 as the beginning of this modern era.</p><p><blockquote>尽管在过去的71年里，调整和崩盘相对短暂，但在现代，它们的时间甚至更短。我将“现代时代”定义为计算机的崛起，它极大地帮助了交易并为股票提供了供需平衡。我武断地用1985年作为这个现代时代的开始。</blockquote></p><p> Since 1985, the S&amp;P 500 has undergone 16 double-digit declines. These include the dot-com bubble, which at 929 calendar days is the longest decline in the benchmark index's history. Even with this outlier, the average length of a crash or correction in the modern era is only 155 days. That's a full month shorter than the historical average for the broad-based index.</p><p><blockquote>自1985年以来，标普500经历了16次两位数的下跌。其中包括互联网泡沫，929个日历日是基准指数历史上最长的下跌。即使有这个异常值，现代崩盘或调整的平均持续时间也只有155天。这比基础广泛的指数的历史平均水平短了整整一个月。</blockquote></p><p> With the internet giving retail investors instant access to information, the barriers that once existed between Wall Street and Main Streethave been torn down. This has played a key role in shortening the length of corrections and crashes.</p><p><blockquote>随着互联网让散户投资者能够即时获取信息，华尔街和大街之间曾经存在的壁垒已经被拆除。这在缩短修正和崩溃的时间方面发挥了关键作用。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>5. 70% of the market's worst days are followed by its best gains</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.70%的市场最糟糕的日子之后都是最好的涨幅</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting statistic that's bound to raise an eyebrow or two is the correlation between the stock market's best and worst days. While some folks might be tempted to run for cover at the first sign of trouble, history shows that this isthe worst possible thing to do.</p><p><blockquote>另一个肯定会引起人们注意的有趣统计数据是股市最好的日子和最差的日子之间的相关性。虽然有些人可能会在遇到麻烦的第一个迹象时试图逃跑，但历史表明，这是最糟糕的事情。</blockquote></p><p> Last year, J.P. Morgan Asset Management released what's become an annual report that examines the rolling 20-year returns of the S&amp;P 500. In particular, J.P. Morgan Asset Management looked at how investors' returns would differ if they missed only a handful of the market's best days over a 20-year period. Between Jan. 3, 2000, and Dec. 31, 2019, missing just the 20 best days would have effectively wiped out a 6% annual average return.</p><p><blockquote>去年，摩根资产管理公司发布了一份年度报告，研究了标普500 20年的滚动回报。摩根大通资产管理公司特别研究了如果投资者在20年期间只错过了市场最好的几天，他们的回报会有何不同。2000年1月3日至2019年12月31日期间，如果错过20个最好的日子，就会有效地抹去6%的年平均回报率。</blockquote></p><p> But what really stands out is how close the S&amp;P 500's best and worst days occur to each other. According to the \"Impact of Being Out of the Market\" report, from Jan. 3, 2000, through April 19, 2020, \"Seven of the ten worst days were followed the NEXT DAY [emphasis by J.P. Morgan Asset Management] by either top 10 returns over the 20 years or top 10 returns for their respective years.\"</p><p><blockquote>但真正引人注目的是标普500最好的日子和最糟糕的日子是多么接近。根据“退出市场的影响”报告，从2000年1月3日到2020年4月19日，“最糟糕的十天中有七天在第二天（摩根资产管理公司强调）之后出现了20年来的前10名回报或各自年份的前10名回报。”</blockquote></p><p> If you try to game the market, you're the one that gets played.</p><p><blockquote>如果你试图玩弄市场，你就是被玩弄的人。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6. Long-term investors are batting 1.000</b></p><p><blockquote><b>6.长期投资者冲击1.000</b></blockquote></p><p> I saved thebest stock market crash metric for last.</p><p><blockquote>我把最好的股市崩盘指标留到了最后。</blockquote></p><p> A bull market rally has eventually put each and every one of these 38 declines in the rearview mirror. And in many instances, it took just weeks or months to erase the declines. For practical purposes, it doesn't matter when you buy during a correction or crash. As long as you buy stakes in an assortment of high-quality, innovative businesses, and you hold those stocks for long periods of time, you have an exceptionally good chance of making money.</p><p><blockquote>牛市反弹最终让这38次下跌中的每一次都成为过去。在许多情况下，只需几周或几个月就可以消除下降。出于实际目的，您何时在调整或崩盘期间买入并不重要。只要你购买各种高质量、创新企业的股份，并长期持有这些股票，你就有非常好的赚钱机会。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further proof, data from Crestmont Research on the S&amp;P 500 shows thatat no pointbetween 1919 and 2019 have rolling 20-year returns on the index ever been negative. In fact, only two ending years out of this 101-year period yielded average annual total returns (that is, including dividends) of less than 5%. If you buy with the intent of holding for a really long time, historical data suggests you're going to do very well.</p><p><blockquote>如果你需要进一步的证据，Crestmont Research关于标普500的数据显示，1919年至2019年间，该指数的20年滚动回报率从未为负。事实上，在这101年的时期中，只有两个年末的平均年总回报率（即包括股息）低于5%。如果你买入的目的是长期持有，历史数据表明你会做得很好。</blockquote></p><p> <b>10 stocks that could be the biggest winners of the stock market crash</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10只股票可能成为股市崩盘的最大赢家</b></blockquote></p><p> When investing geniuses David and Tom Gardner have an investing tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the newsletter they have run for over a decade,<i>Motley Fool Stock Advisor</i>, has quadrupled the market.*</p><p><blockquote>当投资天才大卫·加德纳和汤姆·加德纳有投资建议时，倾听是值得的。毕竟，他们经营了十多年的时事通讯，<i>杂色傻瓜股票顾问</i>，使市场翻了两番。</blockquote></p><p> David and Tom just revealed what they believe are the<b>ten best buys</b>for investors right now… And while timing isn't everything, the history of Tom and David's stock picks shows that it pays to get in early on their best ideas.</p><p><blockquote>大卫和汤姆刚刚透露了他们认为是<b>十大最佳购买</b>对于现在的投资者来说……虽然时机不是一切，但汤姆和大卫选股的历史表明，尽早了解他们的最佳想法是值得的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/07/stock-market-crash-coming-6-metrics-want-to-know/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/07/stock-market-crash-coming-6-metrics-want-to-know/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174323549","content_text":"Over the past three weeks, the stock market has sent investors a stern warning: Equities can go down, too.\nDespite the benchmarkS&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC), iconicDow Jones Industrial Average(DJINDICES:^DJI), and growth-orientedNasdaq Composite(NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC)reveling in record-breaking bounce-back rallies from the March 23, 2020, bear market low, the conditions areripe for a stock market crash.\nSince emotion is the primary driver of very short-term price movements, we're never going to know precisely when a crash or correction is coming. But make no mistake about it, crashes and corrections are an inevitable part of the investing cycle, and some would say the price of admission to the greatest wealth-creating tool on the planet.\nWith this in mind, here are six stock market crash metrics every investor should have in mind.\n1. A Shiller P/E greater than 30 leads to a bear market, historically\nAs noted, the market doesn't often give us telltale signs that a crash is coming. One of the very few indicators that, thus far, has apretty immaculate track record of calling crashesis the Shiller S&P 500 price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. It's a P/E ratio based on inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years.\nOver the past 150 years, the average Shiller P/E reading is 16.79. As of March 3, 2021, the Shiller P/E stood at 34.59 --more than double the historic average.\nHere's where it gets interesting. There have been only five bull market rallies in history where the Shiller P/E for the S&P 500 surpassed 30 and held for a period of time. A few of these periods might ring a bell, such as the Great Depression, the dot-com bubble, and the coronavirus crash. Admittedly, the March 2020 crash had nothing to do with valuations and was purely a response to a once-in-a-generation pandemic. Nevertheless, it doesn't change the fact that the four previous instances of the Shiller P/E surpassing 30 have led to declines in the S&P 500 ranging between 20% and 89%.\nIn other words, history suggests that when the Shiller P/E heads above 30, a decline or a full-on bear market soon follows.\n2. Corrections occur every 1.87 years\nNo matter what sort of decline awaits investors in the future, it's important to recognize just how common these downward moves in the stock market are.\nAccording to data from market analytics company Yardeni Research, there have been 38 declines of at least 10% in the widely followedS&P 500since the beginning of 1950. Over this 71-year span, we're talking about a double-digit decline every 1.87 years, on average.\nKeep in mind that averages are exactly that -- averages. There have been long periods in which corrections were few and far between. For example, there wasn't a single double-digit crash or correction between 1991 and 1996. By comparison, there have been seven double-digit percentage declines in the past 11 years, with at least eight other drops ranging from 5.8% to 9.9%.\nCorrections are a healthy and normal occurrence.\n3. The average correction is six months long\nAlthough corrections tend to bum out optimists, here's some good news: Most crashes and corrections don't last very long.\nDating back to 1950, 24 of the S&P 500's 38 double-digit percentage corrections have found their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days (about 3.5 months). It took another seven between 157 and 288 calendar days to hit their trough. This means only seven significant declines in the market lasted longer than a year over the past seven-plus decades.\nWhen we add those up, the S&P 500 has spent 7,168 days in correction since 1950. This works out to an average correction length of 188 days, orjust over six months. Compare this figure to the 11-year bull market we just exited, and you can see why it pays to be an optimist.\n4. Modern-era corrections are a month shorter, on average\nCue the \"but wait -- there's more\" music.\nEven though corrections and crashes have been relatively short-lived over the past 71 years, they're even shorter in the modern era. I'm defining \"modern era\" as the rise of computers, which have assisted immensely with trading and providing supply-demand balance to equities. I'm arbitrarily using 1985 as the beginning of this modern era.\nSince 1985, the S&P 500 has undergone 16 double-digit declines. These include the dot-com bubble, which at 929 calendar days is the longest decline in the benchmark index's history. Even with this outlier, the average length of a crash or correction in the modern era is only 155 days. That's a full month shorter than the historical average for the broad-based index.\nWith the internet giving retail investors instant access to information, the barriers that once existed between Wall Street and Main Streethave been torn down. This has played a key role in shortening the length of corrections and crashes.\n5. 70% of the market's worst days are followed by its best gains\nAnother interesting statistic that's bound to raise an eyebrow or two is the correlation between the stock market's best and worst days. While some folks might be tempted to run for cover at the first sign of trouble, history shows that this isthe worst possible thing to do.\nLast year, J.P. Morgan Asset Management released what's become an annual report that examines the rolling 20-year returns of the S&P 500. In particular, J.P. Morgan Asset Management looked at how investors' returns would differ if they missed only a handful of the market's best days over a 20-year period. Between Jan. 3, 2000, and Dec. 31, 2019, missing just the 20 best days would have effectively wiped out a 6% annual average return.\nBut what really stands out is how close the S&P 500's best and worst days occur to each other. According to the \"Impact of Being Out of the Market\" report, from Jan. 3, 2000, through April 19, 2020, \"Seven of the ten worst days were followed the NEXT DAY [emphasis by J.P. Morgan Asset Management] by either top 10 returns over the 20 years or top 10 returns for their respective years.\"\nIf you try to game the market, you're the one that gets played.\n6. Long-term investors are batting 1.000\nI saved thebest stock market crash metric for last.\nA bull market rally has eventually put each and every one of these 38 declines in the rearview mirror. And in many instances, it took just weeks or months to erase the declines. For practical purposes, it doesn't matter when you buy during a correction or crash. As long as you buy stakes in an assortment of high-quality, innovative businesses, and you hold those stocks for long periods of time, you have an exceptionally good chance of making money.\nIf you need further proof, data from Crestmont Research on the S&P 500 shows thatat no pointbetween 1919 and 2019 have rolling 20-year returns on the index ever been negative. In fact, only two ending years out of this 101-year period yielded average annual total returns (that is, including dividends) of less than 5%. If you buy with the intent of holding for a really long time, historical data suggests you're going to do very well.\n10 stocks that could be the biggest winners of the stock market crash\nWhen investing geniuses David and Tom Gardner have an investing tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the newsletter they have run for over a decade,Motley Fool Stock Advisor, has quadrupled the market.*\nDavid and Tom just revealed what they believe are theten best buysfor investors right now… And while timing isn't everything, the history of Tom and David's stock picks shows that it pays to get in early on their best ideas.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1749,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":365345601,"gmtCreate":1614698497403,"gmtModify":1703480095936,"author":{"id":"3555027716709439","authorId":"3555027716709439","name":"RLST","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b7bffaca05b5c5fc2858ada8443840","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555027716709439","idStr":"3555027716709439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/365345601","repostId":"2116599540","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1557,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":362912249,"gmtCreate":1614586769981,"gmtModify":1703478487719,"author":{"id":"3555027716709439","authorId":"3555027716709439","name":"RLST","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b7bffaca05b5c5fc2858ada8443840","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555027716709439","idStr":"3555027716709439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/362912249","repostId":"1155083909","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2023,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":366607113,"gmtCreate":1614468057832,"gmtModify":1703477628796,"author":{"id":"3555027716709439","authorId":"3555027716709439","name":"RLST","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b7bffaca05b5c5fc2858ada8443840","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555027716709439","idStr":"3555027716709439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow&nbsp;","listText":"Wow&nbsp;","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366607113","repostId":"1146313632","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146313632","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614334339,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146313632?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-26 18:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Gamestop And High Volatility Options<blockquote>游戏驿站和高波动性期权</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146313632","media":"Options AI: Learn","summary":"Gamestop Corp. shares have soared the past few days with the stock up nearly 200% at one point from ","content":"<p><b>Gamestop Corp.</b>&nbsp;shares have soared the past few days with the stock up nearly 200% at one point from last week (but still down significantly from recent short squeeze highs). We'll look at the unique situations that arise in the options of a highly volatile stock like Gamestop and a few things that might be considered before trading options.</p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站公司。</b>过去几天股价飙升，较上周一度上涨近200%（但仍较近期轧空高点大幅下跌）。我们将看看像游戏驿站这样波动性很大的股票的期权中出现的独特情况，以及在交易期权之前可能需要考虑的一些事情。</blockquote></p><p><hr><b>Gamestop: The Expected Move</b></p><p><blockquote><hr/><b>游戏驿站：预期的举动</b></blockquote></p><p>First, a look at how options are pricing upcoming moves. Here's theOptions AIexpected move chart for Gamestop, with a nearly 30% move being priced into this Friday's close. And a roughly 80% move being priced for the next month. A month that includes an earnings event (unconfirmed):</p><p><blockquote>首先，看看期权如何为即将到来的走势定价。这是游戏驿站的期权AI预期走势图，预计本周五收盘价将出现近30%的走势。下个月的价格将上涨大约80%。包含盈利事件的月份（未经确认）：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e35872724d8db887fa09d822d622ac8c\" tg-width=\"568\" tg-height=\"817\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Gamestop: Call Spreads vs Outright Calls</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站：看涨期权价差与彻底的评级</blockquote></p><p>Using March 19th as an expiry we first looks at bullish spreads, and compare directly to outright calls. With a stock as volatile as Gamestop, calls can be expensive. Because of that, many traders resort to buying far out of the money calls. That demand for upside calls increases volatility in those calls, making them expensive relative to at-the-money calls – a phenomenon known as skew. However, for those that are bullish, this may create an opportunity to utilize spreads rather than buying an outright call. Let's see how.</p><p><blockquote>以3月19日为到期日，我们首先查看看涨利差，并直接与直接评级进行比较。像游戏驿站这样不稳定的股票，评级的股价可能会很昂贵。正因为如此，许多交易者诉诸远超本钱的评级买入。对上行评级的需求增加了这些评级的波动性，使其相对于平价评级的价格昂贵——这种现象被称为倾斜。然而，对于那些看涨的人来说，这可能会创造一个利用价差而不是直接购买看涨期权的机会。让我们看看怎么做。</blockquote></p><p>Here we'll focus on one alternative – using debit spreads to lower the overall cost of a directional trade (while potentially improving the probability of profit of the trade itself by lowering the breakeven level). It does so by selling those relatively expensive out-the-money Calls to help finance the purchase of a nearer to at-the-money Call.</p><p><blockquote>在这里，我们将重点关注一种替代方案——使用借方利差来降低定向交易的总体成本（同时通过降低盈亏平衡水平来提高交易本身的盈利概率）。它通过出售那些相对昂贵的价外评级来帮助购买更接近价外的看涨期权来实现这一目标。</blockquote></p><p>With Gamestop near $105, the&nbsp;<b>March 19th 110/190 Debit Call Spread</b>&nbsp;is roughly $15 and targets the bullish expected move for March 19th. The debit call spread would need the stock to be above $125 on March 19th to be profitable.</p><p><blockquote>随着游戏驿站接近105美元，<b>3月19日110/190借方看涨期权利差</b>大约为15美元，目标是3月19日的看涨预期走势。借方看涨期权利差需要该股在3月19日高于125美元才能盈利。</blockquote></p><p>As a comparison, the GME March 19th 200 calls are trading $29. That's nearly twice the cost for a 200 call that needs the stock above $229 by March 19th… versus a call spread, that needs the stock above $125. Here's a side by side comparison of those two trades on the Options AI chart. First, the 200 call:</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，GME 3月19日200评级的交易价格为29美元。这几乎是200美元看涨期权的成本的两倍，需要股票在3月19日之前高于229美元……而看涨期权的价差需要股票高于125美元。以下是期权人工智能图表上这两种交易的并排比较。一、200家看涨期权：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b044a22bfbe5a8326f9aa3ebf56ed4fd\" tg-width=\"570\" tg-height=\"740\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>And next, the 145/200 debit call spread:</p><p><blockquote>接下来，145/200借方看涨期权利差：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cdf8545f07da48f770ef81cb4e5ac53\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"792\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>As you can see, not only is the call spread less expensive, the point at which is becomes profitable to the upside is much closer to where the stock is currently trading. (As indicated by the grey price of the breakeven.)</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，看涨期权价差不仅更便宜，而且上涨盈利的点也更接近股票当前的交易价格。（如盈亏平衡的灰色价格所示。）</blockquote></p><p>A note on probability of profit. The probability of profit displayed on these trades is based on the delta being assigned to the breakeven of the trade. The fact that a 200 call in a $105 stock is trading near 50 deltas shows just how distorting an effect Gamestop volatility is having on its options (hard to borrow, skew, retail demand for out-of-the-money calls).</p><p><blockquote>关于盈利概率的一个注记。这些交易显示的利润概率基于分配给交易盈亏平衡的delta。105美元股票的200看涨期权交易价格接近50 deltas，这一事实表明游戏驿站波动对其期权产生了多么扭曲的影响（难以借贷、扭曲零售对价外评级的需求）。</blockquote></p><p>Directional Butterflies vs Outright Puts</p><p><blockquote>定向蝶形与直接看跌期权</blockquote></p><p>High volatility also affects bearish options trades. One of the counter-intuitive aspects of a high volatility stock like Gamestop is that its implied volatility can go up as the stock goes higher and down as the stock goes lower. This is the opposite of how we generally think about volatility. Therefore, buying outright puts carries a risk of collapsing volatility (and therefore collapsing premiums) as the stock goes lower. So, even though the stock is moving in the intended direction, as an option holder you may not be realizing the gains expected.</p><p><blockquote>高波动性也会影响看跌期权交易。像游戏驿站这样的高波动性股票的一个反直觉的方面是，其隐含波动率可能会随着股票走高而上升，随着股票走低而下降。这与我们通常对波动性的看法相反。因此，随着股票走低，直接买入看跌期权会带来波动性崩溃（从而导致溢价崩溃）的风险。因此，即使股票正朝着预期的方向移动，作为期权持有者，您可能无法实现预期的收益。</blockquote></p><p>One way to counter high implied volatility in a stock, especially when having a bearish view, is to be a net seller of option premium. To sell to bullish option traders rather than join bearish option traders. Traditionally that might take the form of selling a Credit Call Spread. But in GME's case that means buying the (expensive) upper strike Call at a higher volatility than the Call that is closer to the money (as described above).</p><p><blockquote>应对股票高隐含波动率的一种方法（尤其是在持有看跌观点时）是成为期权溢价的净卖家。向看涨期权交易者出售，而不是加入看跌期权交易者。传统上，这可能采取出售信贷看涨期权利差的形式。但在GME的情况下，这意味着以比更接近资金的看涨期权更高的波动性购买（昂贵的）上行看涨期权（如上所述）。</blockquote></p><p>So, one option strategy that can be considered by traders is using a Butterfly. An option trade that is more typically associated with a neutral trading view, but here adapted to actually create a targeted (bearish) directional view.</p><p><blockquote>因此，交易者可以考虑的一种期权策略是使用蝴蝶。期权交易通常与中性交易观点相关，但在这里适用于实际创建目标（看跌）方向观点。</blockquote></p><p>Here, as an example, is a Butterfly with its center strikes focused at $80 in the stock, with a March 19th expiry:</p><p><blockquote>举个例子，这里有一只蝴蝶，其中心罢工集中在80美元的股票上，到期日为3月19日：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7cb8f9b0570e854f662f3031e50ca91\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"740\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p>This 130/80/30 butterfly has breakevens of 115 and 45, meaning the trade is profitable if the stock is between those two prices at March 19th expiry… with a max gain occurring if the stock is at or near $80. It has the additional dynamic of being short premium, and if the stock stays within its range would see mark to market gains if implied volatility compressed.</p><p><blockquote>这只130/80/30蝴蝶的盈亏平衡点为115和45，这意味着如果股票在3月19日到期时处于这两个价格之间，交易是有利可图的……如果股票处于或接近80美元，则会出现最大收益。它具有空头溢价的额外动力，如果股票保持在其范围内，如果隐含波动率被压缩，则按市值计算将会上涨。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1614334070724","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Gamestop And High Volatility Options<blockquote>游戏驿站和高波动性期权</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGamestop And High Volatility Options<blockquote>游戏驿站和高波动性期权</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Options AI: Learn</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-26 18:12</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Gamestop Corp.</b>&nbsp;shares have soared the past few days with the stock up nearly 200% at one point from last week (but still down significantly from recent short squeeze highs). We'll look at the unique situations that arise in the options of a highly volatile stock like Gamestop and a few things that might be considered before trading options.</p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站公司。</b>过去几天股价飙升，较上周一度上涨近200%（但仍较近期轧空高点大幅下跌）。我们将看看像游戏驿站这样波动性很大的股票的期权中出现的独特情况，以及在交易期权之前可能需要考虑的一些事情。</blockquote></p><p><hr><b>Gamestop: The Expected Move</b></p><p><blockquote><hr/><b>游戏驿站：预期的举动</b></blockquote></p><p>First, a look at how options are pricing upcoming moves. Here's theOptions AIexpected move chart for Gamestop, with a nearly 30% move being priced into this Friday's close. And a roughly 80% move being priced for the next month. A month that includes an earnings event (unconfirmed):</p><p><blockquote>首先，看看期权如何为即将到来的走势定价。这是游戏驿站的期权AI预期走势图，预计本周五收盘价将出现近30%的走势。下个月的价格将上涨大约80%。包含盈利事件的月份（未经确认）：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e35872724d8db887fa09d822d622ac8c\" tg-width=\"568\" tg-height=\"817\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Gamestop: Call Spreads vs Outright Calls</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站：看涨期权价差与彻底的评级</blockquote></p><p>Using March 19th as an expiry we first looks at bullish spreads, and compare directly to outright calls. With a stock as volatile as Gamestop, calls can be expensive. Because of that, many traders resort to buying far out of the money calls. That demand for upside calls increases volatility in those calls, making them expensive relative to at-the-money calls – a phenomenon known as skew. However, for those that are bullish, this may create an opportunity to utilize spreads rather than buying an outright call. Let's see how.</p><p><blockquote>以3月19日为到期日，我们首先查看看涨利差，并直接与直接评级进行比较。像游戏驿站这样不稳定的股票，评级的股价可能会很昂贵。正因为如此，许多交易者诉诸远超本钱的评级买入。对上行评级的需求增加了这些评级的波动性，使其相对于平价评级的价格昂贵——这种现象被称为倾斜。然而，对于那些看涨的人来说，这可能会创造一个利用价差而不是直接购买看涨期权的机会。让我们看看怎么做。</blockquote></p><p>Here we'll focus on one alternative – using debit spreads to lower the overall cost of a directional trade (while potentially improving the probability of profit of the trade itself by lowering the breakeven level). It does so by selling those relatively expensive out-the-money Calls to help finance the purchase of a nearer to at-the-money Call.</p><p><blockquote>在这里，我们将重点关注一种替代方案——使用借方利差来降低定向交易的总体成本（同时通过降低盈亏平衡水平来提高交易本身的盈利概率）。它通过出售那些相对昂贵的价外评级来帮助购买更接近价外的看涨期权来实现这一目标。</blockquote></p><p>With Gamestop near $105, the&nbsp;<b>March 19th 110/190 Debit Call Spread</b>&nbsp;is roughly $15 and targets the bullish expected move for March 19th. The debit call spread would need the stock to be above $125 on March 19th to be profitable.</p><p><blockquote>随着游戏驿站接近105美元，<b>3月19日110/190借方看涨期权利差</b>大约为15美元，目标是3月19日的看涨预期走势。借方看涨期权利差需要该股在3月19日高于125美元才能盈利。</blockquote></p><p>As a comparison, the GME March 19th 200 calls are trading $29. That's nearly twice the cost for a 200 call that needs the stock above $229 by March 19th… versus a call spread, that needs the stock above $125. Here's a side by side comparison of those two trades on the Options AI chart. First, the 200 call:</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，GME 3月19日200评级的交易价格为29美元。这几乎是200美元看涨期权的成本的两倍，需要股票在3月19日之前高于229美元……而看涨期权的价差需要股票高于125美元。以下是期权人工智能图表上这两种交易的并排比较。一、200家看涨期权：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b044a22bfbe5a8326f9aa3ebf56ed4fd\" tg-width=\"570\" tg-height=\"740\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>And next, the 145/200 debit call spread:</p><p><blockquote>接下来，145/200借方看涨期权利差：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cdf8545f07da48f770ef81cb4e5ac53\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"792\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>As you can see, not only is the call spread less expensive, the point at which is becomes profitable to the upside is much closer to where the stock is currently trading. (As indicated by the grey price of the breakeven.)</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，看涨期权价差不仅更便宜，而且上涨盈利的点也更接近股票当前的交易价格。（如盈亏平衡的灰色价格所示。）</blockquote></p><p>A note on probability of profit. The probability of profit displayed on these trades is based on the delta being assigned to the breakeven of the trade. The fact that a 200 call in a $105 stock is trading near 50 deltas shows just how distorting an effect Gamestop volatility is having on its options (hard to borrow, skew, retail demand for out-of-the-money calls).</p><p><blockquote>关于盈利概率的一个注记。这些交易显示的利润概率基于分配给交易盈亏平衡的delta。105美元股票的200看涨期权交易价格接近50 deltas，这一事实表明游戏驿站波动对其期权产生了多么扭曲的影响（难以借贷、扭曲零售对价外评级的需求）。</blockquote></p><p>Directional Butterflies vs Outright Puts</p><p><blockquote>定向蝶形与直接看跌期权</blockquote></p><p>High volatility also affects bearish options trades. One of the counter-intuitive aspects of a high volatility stock like Gamestop is that its implied volatility can go up as the stock goes higher and down as the stock goes lower. This is the opposite of how we generally think about volatility. Therefore, buying outright puts carries a risk of collapsing volatility (and therefore collapsing premiums) as the stock goes lower. So, even though the stock is moving in the intended direction, as an option holder you may not be realizing the gains expected.</p><p><blockquote>高波动性也会影响看跌期权交易。像游戏驿站这样的高波动性股票的一个反直觉的方面是，其隐含波动率可能会随着股票走高而上升，随着股票走低而下降。这与我们通常对波动性的看法相反。因此，随着股票走低，直接买入看跌期权会带来波动性崩溃（从而导致溢价崩溃）的风险。因此，即使股票正朝着预期的方向移动，作为期权持有者，您可能无法实现预期的收益。</blockquote></p><p>One way to counter high implied volatility in a stock, especially when having a bearish view, is to be a net seller of option premium. To sell to bullish option traders rather than join bearish option traders. Traditionally that might take the form of selling a Credit Call Spread. But in GME's case that means buying the (expensive) upper strike Call at a higher volatility than the Call that is closer to the money (as described above).</p><p><blockquote>应对股票高隐含波动率的一种方法（尤其是在持有看跌观点时）是成为期权溢价的净卖家。向看涨期权交易者出售，而不是加入看跌期权交易者。传统上，这可能采取出售信贷看涨期权利差的形式。但在GME的情况下，这意味着以比更接近资金的看涨期权更高的波动性购买（昂贵的）上行看涨期权（如上所述）。</blockquote></p><p>So, one option strategy that can be considered by traders is using a Butterfly. An option trade that is more typically associated with a neutral trading view, but here adapted to actually create a targeted (bearish) directional view.</p><p><blockquote>因此，交易者可以考虑的一种期权策略是使用蝴蝶。期权交易通常与中性交易观点相关，但在这里适用于实际创建目标（看跌）方向观点。</blockquote></p><p>Here, as an example, is a Butterfly with its center strikes focused at $80 in the stock, with a March 19th expiry:</p><p><blockquote>举个例子，这里有一只蝴蝶，其中心罢工集中在80美元的股票上，到期日为3月19日：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7cb8f9b0570e854f662f3031e50ca91\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"740\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p>This 130/80/30 butterfly has breakevens of 115 and 45, meaning the trade is profitable if the stock is between those two prices at March 19th expiry… with a max gain occurring if the stock is at or near $80. It has the additional dynamic of being short premium, and if the stock stays within its range would see mark to market gains if implied volatility compressed.</p><p><blockquote>这只130/80/30蝴蝶的盈亏平衡点为115和45，这意味着如果股票在3月19日到期时处于这两个价格之间，交易是有利可图的……如果股票处于或接近80美元，则会出现最大收益。它具有空头溢价的额外动力，如果股票保持在其范围内，如果隐含波动率被压缩，则按市值计算将会上涨。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://learn.optionsai.com/gamestop-and-high-volatility-options/\">Options AI: Learn</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://learn.optionsai.com/gamestop-and-high-volatility-options/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146313632","content_text":"Gamestop Corp. shares have soared the past few days with the stock up nearly 200% at one point from last week (but still down significantly from recent short squeeze highs). We'll look at the unique situations that arise in the options of a highly volatile stock like Gamestop and a few things that might be considered before trading options.Gamestop: The Expected MoveFirst, a look at how options are pricing upcoming moves. Here's theOptions AIexpected move chart for Gamestop, with a nearly 30% move being priced into this Friday's close. And a roughly 80% move being priced for the next month. A month that includes an earnings event (unconfirmed):Gamestop: Call Spreads vs Outright CallsUsing March 19th as an expiry we first looks at bullish spreads, and compare directly to outright calls. With a stock as volatile as Gamestop, calls can be expensive. Because of that, many traders resort to buying far out of the money calls. That demand for upside calls increases volatility in those calls, making them expensive relative to at-the-money calls – a phenomenon known as skew. However, for those that are bullish, this may create an opportunity to utilize spreads rather than buying an outright call. Let's see how.Here we'll focus on one alternative – using debit spreads to lower the overall cost of a directional trade (while potentially improving the probability of profit of the trade itself by lowering the breakeven level). It does so by selling those relatively expensive out-the-money Calls to help finance the purchase of a nearer to at-the-money Call.With Gamestop near $105, the March 19th 110/190 Debit Call Spread is roughly $15 and targets the bullish expected move for March 19th. The debit call spread would need the stock to be above $125 on March 19th to be profitable.As a comparison, the GME March 19th 200 calls are trading $29. That's nearly twice the cost for a 200 call that needs the stock above $229 by March 19th… versus a call spread, that needs the stock above $125. Here's a side by side comparison of those two trades on the Options AI chart. First, the 200 call:And next, the 145/200 debit call spread:As you can see, not only is the call spread less expensive, the point at which is becomes profitable to the upside is much closer to where the stock is currently trading. (As indicated by the grey price of the breakeven.)A note on probability of profit. The probability of profit displayed on these trades is based on the delta being assigned to the breakeven of the trade. The fact that a 200 call in a $105 stock is trading near 50 deltas shows just how distorting an effect Gamestop volatility is having on its options (hard to borrow, skew, retail demand for out-of-the-money calls).Directional Butterflies vs Outright PutsHigh volatility also affects bearish options trades. One of the counter-intuitive aspects of a high volatility stock like Gamestop is that its implied volatility can go up as the stock goes higher and down as the stock goes lower. This is the opposite of how we generally think about volatility. Therefore, buying outright puts carries a risk of collapsing volatility (and therefore collapsing premiums) as the stock goes lower. So, even though the stock is moving in the intended direction, as an option holder you may not be realizing the gains expected.One way to counter high implied volatility in a stock, especially when having a bearish view, is to be a net seller of option premium. To sell to bullish option traders rather than join bearish option traders. Traditionally that might take the form of selling a Credit Call Spread. But in GME's case that means buying the (expensive) upper strike Call at a higher volatility than the Call that is closer to the money (as described above).So, one option strategy that can be considered by traders is using a Butterfly. An option trade that is more typically associated with a neutral trading view, but here adapted to actually create a targeted (bearish) directional view.Here, as an example, is a Butterfly with its center strikes focused at $80 in the stock, with a March 19th expiry:This 130/80/30 butterfly has breakevens of 115 and 45, meaning the trade is profitable if the stock is between those two prices at March 19th expiry… with a max gain occurring if the stock is at or near $80. It has the additional dynamic of being short premium, and if the stock stays within its range would see mark to market gains if implied volatility compressed.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3065,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":366607921,"gmtCreate":1614468027763,"gmtModify":1703477628120,"author":{"id":"3555027716709439","authorId":"3555027716709439","name":"RLST","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b7bffaca05b5c5fc2858ada8443840","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555027716709439","idStr":"3555027716709439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366607921","repostId":"1103930774","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103930774","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614334872,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1103930774?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-26 18:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why QuantumScape Stock Rose Then Fell Thursday<blockquote>为什么QuantumScape股票周四先涨后跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103930774","media":"Motley Fool ","summary":"The CEO of the solid-state EV battery maker that has garnered much investor interest gave an intervi","content":"<p>The CEO of the solid-state EV battery maker that has garnered much investor interest gave an interview today.</p><p><blockquote>备受投资者关注的固态电动汽车电池制造商的首席执行官今天接受了采访。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What happened</b></p><p><blockquote><b>发生了什么</b></blockquote></p><p> The stock of aspiring solid-state battery technology company&nbsp;<b>QuantumScape</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:QS)&nbsp;has certainly seen ups and downs. Movement in the stock today mirrored that pattern. After an early 10% jump, shares closed more than 3% lower on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>有抱负的固态电池技术公司股票<b>量子景观</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：QS）确实经历了起起落落。今天该股的走势反映了这种模式。在开盘上涨10%后，周四收盘下跌超过3%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那又怎样</b></blockquote></p><p> Shares of the company are down more than 30% year to date after a triple-digit spike in late 2020. The company tends to trade with the&nbsp;electric-vehicle (EV)&nbsp;sector as a speculative stock hoping to revolutionize EV battery technology.</p><p><blockquote>该公司股价在2020年底飙升三位数后，今年迄今已下跌超过30%。该公司倾向于将电动汽车（EV）行业作为投机性股票进行交易，希望彻底改变电动汽车电池技术。</blockquote></p><p> Today, QuantumScape CEO Jagdeep Singh gave an interview to Yahoo! Finance, which may have contributed to the stock's volatile trading.</p><p><blockquote>今天，QuantumScape首席执行官Jagdeep Singh接受了雅虎的采访！金融，这可能导致该股交易波动。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Now what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在怎么办</b></blockquote></p><p> During today's interview, Singh reiterated some positive developments the company shared with investors&nbsp;last week in its earnings release. The company is working toward commercializing the solid-state battery technology that could provide EV makers with a safer, faster-charging battery that can also deliver longer ranges.</p><p><blockquote>在今天的采访中，辛格重申了该公司上周在财报中与投资者分享的一些积极进展。该公司正在努力将固态电池技术商业化，该技术可以为电动汽车制造商提供更安全、充电更快、续航里程更长的电池。</blockquote></p><p> The company reported it has successfully built its first multilayer battery cell with four layers. This helps confirm the technology is feasible. Singh added that he plans to scale up the technology to have an eight to 10-layer cell by the end of this year. That would allow the company to deliver sample cells to automotive manufacturers.</p><p><blockquote>该公司报告称，它已经成功制造了第一个四层多层电池。这有助于确认该技术是可行的。辛格补充说，他计划在今年年底前扩大该技术，使其拥有8至10层电池。这将使该公司能够向汽车制造商提供样品电池。</blockquote></p><p> Singh also said there is interest from other sectors for the technology. \"Things like stationary storage for the grid, that's a really important application for batteries,\" Singh stated in the interview.</p><p><blockquote>辛格还表示，其他行业也对这项技术感兴趣。“像电网的固定存储这样的东西，对于电池来说是一个非常重要的应用，”辛格在采访中表示。</blockquote></p><p> Successful commercial production is far from guaranteed, however. Any investment should be squarely in a speculative portion of a portfolio. And investors should expect ups and downs for both the business developments and the stock, as was seen with today's jump and drop.</p><p><blockquote>然而，成功的商业生产还远未得到保证。任何投资都应该完全属于投资组合的投机部分。投资者应该预计业务发展和股票都会起起落落，正如今天的涨跌所看到的那样。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why QuantumScape Stock Rose Then Fell Thursday<blockquote>为什么QuantumScape股票周四先涨后跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy QuantumScape Stock Rose Then Fell Thursday<blockquote>为什么QuantumScape股票周四先涨后跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool </strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-26 18:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The CEO of the solid-state EV battery maker that has garnered much investor interest gave an interview today.</p><p><blockquote>备受投资者关注的固态电动汽车电池制造商的首席执行官今天接受了采访。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What happened</b></p><p><blockquote><b>发生了什么</b></blockquote></p><p> The stock of aspiring solid-state battery technology company&nbsp;<b>QuantumScape</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:QS)&nbsp;has certainly seen ups and downs. Movement in the stock today mirrored that pattern. After an early 10% jump, shares closed more than 3% lower on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>有抱负的固态电池技术公司股票<b>量子景观</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：QS）确实经历了起起落落。今天该股的走势反映了这种模式。在开盘上涨10%后，周四收盘下跌超过3%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那又怎样</b></blockquote></p><p> Shares of the company are down more than 30% year to date after a triple-digit spike in late 2020. The company tends to trade with the&nbsp;electric-vehicle (EV)&nbsp;sector as a speculative stock hoping to revolutionize EV battery technology.</p><p><blockquote>该公司股价在2020年底飙升三位数后，今年迄今已下跌超过30%。该公司倾向于将电动汽车（EV）行业作为投机性股票进行交易，希望彻底改变电动汽车电池技术。</blockquote></p><p> Today, QuantumScape CEO Jagdeep Singh gave an interview to Yahoo! Finance, which may have contributed to the stock's volatile trading.</p><p><blockquote>今天，QuantumScape首席执行官Jagdeep Singh接受了雅虎的采访！金融，这可能导致该股交易波动。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Now what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在怎么办</b></blockquote></p><p> During today's interview, Singh reiterated some positive developments the company shared with investors&nbsp;last week in its earnings release. The company is working toward commercializing the solid-state battery technology that could provide EV makers with a safer, faster-charging battery that can also deliver longer ranges.</p><p><blockquote>在今天的采访中，辛格重申了该公司上周在财报中与投资者分享的一些积极进展。该公司正在努力将固态电池技术商业化，该技术可以为电动汽车制造商提供更安全、充电更快、续航里程更长的电池。</blockquote></p><p> The company reported it has successfully built its first multilayer battery cell with four layers. This helps confirm the technology is feasible. Singh added that he plans to scale up the technology to have an eight to 10-layer cell by the end of this year. That would allow the company to deliver sample cells to automotive manufacturers.</p><p><blockquote>该公司报告称，它已经成功制造了第一个四层多层电池。这有助于确认该技术是可行的。辛格补充说，他计划在今年年底前扩大该技术，使其拥有8至10层电池。这将使该公司能够向汽车制造商提供样品电池。</blockquote></p><p> Singh also said there is interest from other sectors for the technology. \"Things like stationary storage for the grid, that's a really important application for batteries,\" Singh stated in the interview.</p><p><blockquote>辛格还表示，其他行业也对这项技术感兴趣。“像电网的固定存储这样的东西，对于电池来说是一个非常重要的应用，”辛格在采访中表示。</blockquote></p><p> Successful commercial production is far from guaranteed, however. Any investment should be squarely in a speculative portion of a portfolio. And investors should expect ups and downs for both the business developments and the stock, as was seen with today's jump and drop.</p><p><blockquote>然而，成功的商业生产还远未得到保证。任何投资都应该完全属于投资组合的投机部分。投资者应该预计业务发展和股票都会起起落落，正如今天的涨跌所看到的那样。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/02/25/why-quantumscape-stock-rose-then-fell-today/\">Motley Fool </a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"QS":"Quantumscape Corp."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/02/25/why-quantumscape-stock-rose-then-fell-today/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103930774","content_text":"The CEO of the solid-state EV battery maker that has garnered much investor interest gave an interview today.\nWhat happened\nThe stock of aspiring solid-state battery technology company QuantumScape (NYSE:QS) has certainly seen ups and downs. Movement in the stock today mirrored that pattern. After an early 10% jump, shares closed more than 3% lower on Thursday.\nSo what\nShares of the company are down more than 30% year to date after a triple-digit spike in late 2020. The company tends to trade with the electric-vehicle (EV) sector as a speculative stock hoping to revolutionize EV battery technology.\nToday, QuantumScape CEO Jagdeep Singh gave an interview to Yahoo! Finance, which may have contributed to the stock's volatile trading.\nNow what\nDuring today's interview, Singh reiterated some positive developments the company shared with investors last week in its earnings release. The company is working toward commercializing the solid-state battery technology that could provide EV makers with a safer, faster-charging battery that can also deliver longer ranges.\nThe company reported it has successfully built its first multilayer battery cell with four layers. This helps confirm the technology is feasible. Singh added that he plans to scale up the technology to have an eight to 10-layer cell by the end of this year. That would allow the company to deliver sample cells to automotive manufacturers.\nSingh also said there is interest from other sectors for the technology. \"Things like stationary storage for the grid, that's a really important application for batteries,\" Singh stated in the interview.\nSuccessful commercial production is far from guaranteed, however. Any investment should be squarely in a speculative portion of a portfolio. And investors should expect ups and downs for both the business developments and the stock, as was seen with today's jump and drop.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"QS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1693,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":361957207,"gmtCreate":1614191930009,"gmtModify":1634550783891,"author":{"id":"3555027716709439","authorId":"3555027716709439","name":"RLST","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b7bffaca05b5c5fc2858ada8443840","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555027716709439","idStr":"3555027716709439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/361957207","repostId":"1197533827","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197533827","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614160523,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1197533827?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-24 17:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The days of easy money in the stock market are now over<blockquote>股市轻松赚钱的日子现已结束</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197533827","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Get ready for a return to normal. Lucid’s SPAC and ARK Invest’s ETFs carry the whiff of the late-199","content":"<p>Get ready for a return to normal. Lucid’s SPAC and ARK Invest’s ETFs carry the whiff of the late-1990s technology bubble.</p><p><blockquote>准备好恢复正常吧。Lucid的SPAC和ARK Invest的ETF带有20世纪90年代末科技泡沫的气息。</blockquote></p><p> Ignore stock valuations and companies’ fundamentals at your peril.</p><p><blockquote>忽视股票估值和公司基本面，后果自负。</blockquote></p><p> Churchill Capital Corp. ,a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) that had been rumored to merge with a Tesla-wannabe, Lucid Motors, finally announced Monday night that it is indeed going to do so. And in a classic Wall Street reaction, the market “sold the news” after long having “bought the rumor.”</p><p><blockquote>Churchill Capital Corp.是一家特殊目的收购公司（SPAC），曾有传言称将与特斯拉的追随者Lucid Motors合并，周一晚上终于宣布确实会这样做。在华尔街的典型反应中，市场在长期“买入谣言”后“卖出消息”。</blockquote></p><p> CCIV was up 500% from when it went public as a blank-check company, and today the stock market has wiped half of what its market value was perceived to be Monday at noon. This is a stock that I had warned about earlier this month as one of the many “Random Number Generators” (RNGs) that should be avoided. People and institutions who had for weeks been buying CCIV at $40, $50, $60 or even $70 per share have suddenly seen a huge wipeout of value.</p><p><blockquote>CCIV较作为空白支票公司上市时上涨了500%，今天股市已经抹去了周一中午预期市值的一半。本月早些时候，我曾警告过这只股票是应避免的众多“随机数生成器”(RNG)之一。几周来一直以每股40美元、50美元、60美元甚至70美元的价格购买CCIV的人和机构突然发现价值大幅缩水。</blockquote></p><p> They’re now, maybe, looking around at their other RNG SPACs and wondering if they should actually look at the valuations.</p><p><blockquote>他们现在可能正在环顾其他RNG SPAC，并想知道是否真的应该看看估值。</blockquote></p><p> Reviewing this week’s ugly stock-market action in a broader context, you might note that Tesla Inc.&nbsp;at $900 — after the company reported a not-so-great quarter that included some questions about gross margin expansion — is looking like it could have been a top-maker itself.</p><p><blockquote>在更广泛的背景下回顾本周丑陋的股市走势，您可能会注意到，特斯拉公司的股价为900美元——此前该公司报告了一个不太好的季度，其中包括一些有关毛利率扩张的问题——看起来可能已经是顶级制造商本身。</blockquote></p><p> Many questionable EV stocks continued to rally for a week or two before getting their comeuppance this week. At least for a day or two. It will be interesting to look back in a month to see what the non-TSLA EV stocks do from here. I expect most to move much lower even than today’s quotes, which are much lower than last week’s quotes.</p><p><blockquote>许多有问题的电动汽车股票在本周受到惩罚之前持续上涨了一两周。至少一两天。一个月后回顾一下非特斯拉电动汽车股票的表现将会很有趣。我预计大多数价格甚至会比今天的报价低得多，今天的报价比上周的报价低得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Piling into ARK</b></p><p><blockquote><b>堆积成方舟</b></blockquote></p><p> These days everybody wants to be Cathie Wood from ARK Invest. She was an early bull on Tesla and bitcoinBTCUSD,6.03%and some of the the other themes that long-time followers of mine and I got into even earlier than she did. Her actively managed ETF, ARK Innovation ETF&nbsp;being the most famous, has performed very well, and her commentary has been spot on for a couple years now.</p><p><blockquote>如今，每个人都想成为方舟投资公司的凯西·伍德。她是特斯拉和比特币BTCUSD、6.03%以及我和我的长期追随者甚至比她更早进入的其他一些主题的早期看涨者。她的主动管理型ETF（最著名的ARK Innovation ETF）表现非常好，几年来她的评论一直准确无误。</blockquote></p><p> But I have bad news. Even as I am a fan of Cathie’s and wish her and her investors all the best, I can’t help but think of the story of George Gilder, with whom I’ve become friends in the decades since&nbsp;I wrote this in 2001 for TheStreet.com.&nbsp;(I just realized this article was published just two weeks after 9/11.):</p><p><blockquote>但我有个坏消息。尽管我是Cathie's的粉丝并祝愿她和她的投资者一切顺利，但我还是忍不住想起了乔治·吉尔德(George Gilder)的故事，自从我2001年为TheStreet.com撰写这篇文章以来，我已经和他成为了几十年的朋友。（我刚刚意识到这篇文章是在9/11后两周发表的。）：</blockquote></p><p> <i>“Investors need to heed a few rules when evaluating companies in their portfolio: Cash is king, as cash flow becomes increasingly difficult to judge on an ongoing basis. As such, a simple glance at a company’s balance sheet can tell you a lot about whether it’s worthy of investment. Now that the huge daily run-ups of telco stocks are gone forever, the potential rewards of any business with questionable viability aren’t worth the risk of your capital. Look for real revenue on the books. As tech guru George Gilder and his followers have learned (at least, I hope they have by now), great technology doesn’t translate into a great investment. Companies need sales channels, and they need products for which there are immediate uses. You might be surprised that I didn’t mention profitability in that list. Profitability is naturally important, but even companies like Cisco probably won’t be profitable this quarter and perhaps for several more, as they’ll have to continue aligning capacity, employees and inventory with demand.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“投资者在评估投资组合中的公司时需要注意一些规则：现金为王，因为现金流变得越来越难以持续判断。因此，简单浏览一下公司的资产负债表就可以告诉你很多关于它是否值得投资。既然电信股票每日大幅上涨的情况已经一去不复返了，任何生存能力值得怀疑的企业的潜在回报都不值得你冒资本风险。寻找账面上的实际收入。正如科技大师乔治·吉尔德和他的追随者所认识到的（至少，我希望他们现在已经认识到了），伟大的技术并不能转化为伟大的投资。公司需要销售渠道，他们需要有直接用途的产品。你可能会惊讶我没有在列表中提到盈利能力。盈利能力自然很重要，但即使是像思科这样的公司也可能无法在本季度甚至更长时间内实现盈利，因为他们必须继续根据需求调整产能、员工和库存。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Let me repeat the caveat here: You’ll never see the type of returns, at least in telecom and telecom-tech stocks, that we saw almost daily in the late 1990s. That’s another reason why these tech mutual fund guys, who keep preaching to stay the course, will take forever to get back to even.”</i></p><p><blockquote><i>让我在这里重复一遍警告：你永远不会看到我们在20世纪90年代末几乎每天都能看到的那种回报，至少在电信和电信科技股票中是这样。这就是为什么这些科技共同基金人士不断宣扬坚持到底，却需要很长时间才能恢复平衡的另一个原因。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>The hangover</b></p><p><blockquote><b>宿醉</b></blockquote></p><p> Telecom and telecom-tech stocks never again saw the kind of returns they did back in the late 1990s. I think the same can be said of EV stocks and many other of the favorites that Cathie Wood and her crowd of blind followers are these days plowing into as they put their money to work regardless of valuations.</p><p><blockquote>电信和电信科技股再也没有看到20世纪90年代末那样的回报。我认为电动汽车股票以及凯西·伍德（Cathie Wood）和她的一群盲目追随者最近投入的许多其他最爱股票也是如此，因为他们不顾估值而投入资金。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s what George had to say&nbsp;in 2002:</p><p><blockquote>以下是乔治在2002年所说的话：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>“In retrospect, it’s obvious that I should’ve subtly said, ‘Hey, things have gotten out of hand at JDS Uniphase, and it’s not worth what you’d have to pay for it,’” he says. Each month, he thought about providing a warning to his subscribers, and he decided against it every time. He had witnessed firsthand what others had dubbed the “Gilder effect”: the steep spike in a stock after he added that company to his list. It wasn’t unheard of for the price of a stock to jump by more than 50 percent within an hour of a newsletter’s release. If I had said, ‘Hey, this is a top, you should all sell,’ it would’ve been a cataclysmic event,” he says. “I’d think about telling people that they should sell half their holdings, and each time I’d conclude that my subscribers would be enraged. I also wondered what I’d precipitate if I did it.” Fully 50 percent of his readers had signed up for the report at what Gilder now calls the “hysterical peak” of the market. “Half of my subscribers would have been eternally grateful [for a warning], but the other half – the new ones – would’ve been enraged because they had just come in,” he says. “It was quite terrifying. I really didn’t know what to do.” In the end he did nothing. And soon enough, he had an entirely new set of distractions to fret over. “In the past, we’d sell out our investor conferences within two weeks,” Gilder says. “But in 2001, we sent out the same literature and the same invitations, and five or seven people signed up.” He lost the deposits that were placed to reserve hotel space for the gatherings. Newsletter renewal rates plummeted. A huge tax bill came due. By spring 2002, he’d laid off nearly half of his staff. “You can be just fabulously flush one moment, and then the next, you can’t make that last million-dollar payment to your partners, and there’s suddenly a lien on your house,” he says.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“回想起来，很明显我应该巧妙地说，‘嘿，JDS Uniphase的事情已经失控了，不值得你为此付出代价，’”他说。每个月，他都考虑向他的订户提供警告，但每次他都决定不这样做。他亲眼目睹了其他人所说的“吉尔德效应”：在他将一家公司加入他的名单后，该公司的股票急剧上涨。股票价格在时事通讯发布后一小时内上涨超过50%的情况并非闻所未闻。如果我说，‘嘿，这是一个顶部，你们都应该卖出’，这将是一个灾难性的事件，”他说。“我会考虑告诉人们他们应该卖掉一半的股份，每次我都会得出结论，我的订阅者会被激怒。我也想知道如果我这么做了会导致什么后果。”在吉尔德现在评级的市场“歇斯底里的高峰”，他的读者中有整整50%都报名阅读了这份报告。“我的一半订户会永远感激[警告]，但另一半——新订户——会被激怒，因为他们刚刚进来，”他说。“太可怕了，我真的不知道该怎么办了。”最后他什么也没做。很快，他就有了一系列全新的干扰。“过去，我们的投资者会议会在两周内售罄，”吉尔德说。“但在2001年，我们发出同样的文献，同样的邀请函，就有五七个人报名。”他失去了为聚会预留酒店空间的押金。简讯续订率直线下降。一笔巨额税单到期了。到2002年春天，他已经解雇了近一半的员工。“你可能前一刻还非常富有，下一刻，你就无法向你的合作伙伴支付最后一百万美元，然后你的房子突然就被留置权了，”他说。</i></blockquote></p><p> Many of the best stocks on George’s list at the top in 1999 ended up going down 99% or more. Many went to zero, even as their technologies and ideas carried on and built the internet we all use every day now.</p><p><blockquote>1999年乔治排行榜上名列前茅的许多最佳股票最终下跌了99%或更多。许多人归零，即使他们的技术和想法继续发展，并建立了我们现在每天都在使用的互联网。</blockquote></p><p> CCIV is likely a harbinger of more pain for those who ignore valuations and fundamentals.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些忽视估值和基本面的人来说，CCIV可能预示着更多痛苦。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The days of easy money in the stock market are now over<blockquote>股市轻松赚钱的日子现已结束</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe days of easy money in the stock market are now over<blockquote>股市轻松赚钱的日子现已结束</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-24 17:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Get ready for a return to normal. Lucid’s SPAC and ARK Invest’s ETFs carry the whiff of the late-1990s technology bubble.</p><p><blockquote>准备好恢复正常吧。Lucid的SPAC和ARK Invest的ETF带有20世纪90年代末科技泡沫的气息。</blockquote></p><p> Ignore stock valuations and companies’ fundamentals at your peril.</p><p><blockquote>忽视股票估值和公司基本面，后果自负。</blockquote></p><p> Churchill Capital Corp. ,a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) that had been rumored to merge with a Tesla-wannabe, Lucid Motors, finally announced Monday night that it is indeed going to do so. And in a classic Wall Street reaction, the market “sold the news” after long having “bought the rumor.”</p><p><blockquote>Churchill Capital Corp.是一家特殊目的收购公司（SPAC），曾有传言称将与特斯拉的追随者Lucid Motors合并，周一晚上终于宣布确实会这样做。在华尔街的典型反应中，市场在长期“买入谣言”后“卖出消息”。</blockquote></p><p> CCIV was up 500% from when it went public as a blank-check company, and today the stock market has wiped half of what its market value was perceived to be Monday at noon. This is a stock that I had warned about earlier this month as one of the many “Random Number Generators” (RNGs) that should be avoided. People and institutions who had for weeks been buying CCIV at $40, $50, $60 or even $70 per share have suddenly seen a huge wipeout of value.</p><p><blockquote>CCIV较作为空白支票公司上市时上涨了500%，今天股市已经抹去了周一中午预期市值的一半。本月早些时候，我曾警告过这只股票是应避免的众多“随机数生成器”(RNG)之一。几周来一直以每股40美元、50美元、60美元甚至70美元的价格购买CCIV的人和机构突然发现价值大幅缩水。</blockquote></p><p> They’re now, maybe, looking around at their other RNG SPACs and wondering if they should actually look at the valuations.</p><p><blockquote>他们现在可能正在环顾其他RNG SPAC，并想知道是否真的应该看看估值。</blockquote></p><p> Reviewing this week’s ugly stock-market action in a broader context, you might note that Tesla Inc.&nbsp;at $900 — after the company reported a not-so-great quarter that included some questions about gross margin expansion — is looking like it could have been a top-maker itself.</p><p><blockquote>在更广泛的背景下回顾本周丑陋的股市走势，您可能会注意到，特斯拉公司的股价为900美元——此前该公司报告了一个不太好的季度，其中包括一些有关毛利率扩张的问题——看起来可能已经是顶级制造商本身。</blockquote></p><p> Many questionable EV stocks continued to rally for a week or two before getting their comeuppance this week. At least for a day or two. It will be interesting to look back in a month to see what the non-TSLA EV stocks do from here. I expect most to move much lower even than today’s quotes, which are much lower than last week’s quotes.</p><p><blockquote>许多有问题的电动汽车股票在本周受到惩罚之前持续上涨了一两周。至少一两天。一个月后回顾一下非特斯拉电动汽车股票的表现将会很有趣。我预计大多数价格甚至会比今天的报价低得多，今天的报价比上周的报价低得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Piling into ARK</b></p><p><blockquote><b>堆积成方舟</b></blockquote></p><p> These days everybody wants to be Cathie Wood from ARK Invest. She was an early bull on Tesla and bitcoinBTCUSD,6.03%and some of the the other themes that long-time followers of mine and I got into even earlier than she did. Her actively managed ETF, ARK Innovation ETF&nbsp;being the most famous, has performed very well, and her commentary has been spot on for a couple years now.</p><p><blockquote>如今，每个人都想成为方舟投资公司的凯西·伍德。她是特斯拉和比特币BTCUSD、6.03%以及我和我的长期追随者甚至比她更早进入的其他一些主题的早期看涨者。她的主动管理型ETF（最著名的ARK Innovation ETF）表现非常好，几年来她的评论一直准确无误。</blockquote></p><p> But I have bad news. Even as I am a fan of Cathie’s and wish her and her investors all the best, I can’t help but think of the story of George Gilder, with whom I’ve become friends in the decades since&nbsp;I wrote this in 2001 for TheStreet.com.&nbsp;(I just realized this article was published just two weeks after 9/11.):</p><p><blockquote>但我有个坏消息。尽管我是Cathie's的粉丝并祝愿她和她的投资者一切顺利，但我还是忍不住想起了乔治·吉尔德(George Gilder)的故事，自从我2001年为TheStreet.com撰写这篇文章以来，我已经和他成为了几十年的朋友。（我刚刚意识到这篇文章是在9/11后两周发表的。）：</blockquote></p><p> <i>“Investors need to heed a few rules when evaluating companies in their portfolio: Cash is king, as cash flow becomes increasingly difficult to judge on an ongoing basis. As such, a simple glance at a company’s balance sheet can tell you a lot about whether it’s worthy of investment. Now that the huge daily run-ups of telco stocks are gone forever, the potential rewards of any business with questionable viability aren’t worth the risk of your capital. Look for real revenue on the books. As tech guru George Gilder and his followers have learned (at least, I hope they have by now), great technology doesn’t translate into a great investment. Companies need sales channels, and they need products for which there are immediate uses. You might be surprised that I didn’t mention profitability in that list. Profitability is naturally important, but even companies like Cisco probably won’t be profitable this quarter and perhaps for several more, as they’ll have to continue aligning capacity, employees and inventory with demand.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“投资者在评估投资组合中的公司时需要注意一些规则：现金为王，因为现金流变得越来越难以持续判断。因此，简单浏览一下公司的资产负债表就可以告诉你很多关于它是否值得投资。既然电信股票每日大幅上涨的情况已经一去不复返了，任何生存能力值得怀疑的企业的潜在回报都不值得你冒资本风险。寻找账面上的实际收入。正如科技大师乔治·吉尔德和他的追随者所认识到的（至少，我希望他们现在已经认识到了），伟大的技术并不能转化为伟大的投资。公司需要销售渠道，他们需要有直接用途的产品。你可能会惊讶我没有在列表中提到盈利能力。盈利能力自然很重要，但即使是像思科这样的公司也可能无法在本季度甚至更长时间内实现盈利，因为他们必须继续根据需求调整产能、员工和库存。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Let me repeat the caveat here: You’ll never see the type of returns, at least in telecom and telecom-tech stocks, that we saw almost daily in the late 1990s. That’s another reason why these tech mutual fund guys, who keep preaching to stay the course, will take forever to get back to even.”</i></p><p><blockquote><i>让我在这里重复一遍警告：你永远不会看到我们在20世纪90年代末几乎每天都能看到的那种回报，至少在电信和电信科技股票中是这样。这就是为什么这些科技共同基金人士不断宣扬坚持到底，却需要很长时间才能恢复平衡的另一个原因。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>The hangover</b></p><p><blockquote><b>宿醉</b></blockquote></p><p> Telecom and telecom-tech stocks never again saw the kind of returns they did back in the late 1990s. I think the same can be said of EV stocks and many other of the favorites that Cathie Wood and her crowd of blind followers are these days plowing into as they put their money to work regardless of valuations.</p><p><blockquote>电信和电信科技股再也没有看到20世纪90年代末那样的回报。我认为电动汽车股票以及凯西·伍德（Cathie Wood）和她的一群盲目追随者最近投入的许多其他最爱股票也是如此，因为他们不顾估值而投入资金。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s what George had to say&nbsp;in 2002:</p><p><blockquote>以下是乔治在2002年所说的话：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>“In retrospect, it’s obvious that I should’ve subtly said, ‘Hey, things have gotten out of hand at JDS Uniphase, and it’s not worth what you’d have to pay for it,’” he says. Each month, he thought about providing a warning to his subscribers, and he decided against it every time. He had witnessed firsthand what others had dubbed the “Gilder effect”: the steep spike in a stock after he added that company to his list. It wasn’t unheard of for the price of a stock to jump by more than 50 percent within an hour of a newsletter’s release. If I had said, ‘Hey, this is a top, you should all sell,’ it would’ve been a cataclysmic event,” he says. “I’d think about telling people that they should sell half their holdings, and each time I’d conclude that my subscribers would be enraged. I also wondered what I’d precipitate if I did it.” Fully 50 percent of his readers had signed up for the report at what Gilder now calls the “hysterical peak” of the market. “Half of my subscribers would have been eternally grateful [for a warning], but the other half – the new ones – would’ve been enraged because they had just come in,” he says. “It was quite terrifying. I really didn’t know what to do.” In the end he did nothing. And soon enough, he had an entirely new set of distractions to fret over. “In the past, we’d sell out our investor conferences within two weeks,” Gilder says. “But in 2001, we sent out the same literature and the same invitations, and five or seven people signed up.” He lost the deposits that were placed to reserve hotel space for the gatherings. Newsletter renewal rates plummeted. A huge tax bill came due. By spring 2002, he’d laid off nearly half of his staff. “You can be just fabulously flush one moment, and then the next, you can’t make that last million-dollar payment to your partners, and there’s suddenly a lien on your house,” he says.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“回想起来，很明显我应该巧妙地说，‘嘿，JDS Uniphase的事情已经失控了，不值得你为此付出代价，’”他说。每个月，他都考虑向他的订户提供警告，但每次他都决定不这样做。他亲眼目睹了其他人所说的“吉尔德效应”：在他将一家公司加入他的名单后，该公司的股票急剧上涨。股票价格在时事通讯发布后一小时内上涨超过50%的情况并非闻所未闻。如果我说，‘嘿，这是一个顶部，你们都应该卖出’，这将是一个灾难性的事件，”他说。“我会考虑告诉人们他们应该卖掉一半的股份，每次我都会得出结论，我的订阅者会被激怒。我也想知道如果我这么做了会导致什么后果。”在吉尔德现在评级的市场“歇斯底里的高峰”，他的读者中有整整50%都报名阅读了这份报告。“我的一半订户会永远感激[警告]，但另一半——新订户——会被激怒，因为他们刚刚进来，”他说。“太可怕了，我真的不知道该怎么办了。”最后他什么也没做。很快，他就有了一系列全新的干扰。“过去，我们的投资者会议会在两周内售罄，”吉尔德说。“但在2001年，我们发出同样的文献，同样的邀请函，就有五七个人报名。”他失去了为聚会预留酒店空间的押金。简讯续订率直线下降。一笔巨额税单到期了。到2002年春天，他已经解雇了近一半的员工。“你可能前一刻还非常富有，下一刻，你就无法向你的合作伙伴支付最后一百万美元，然后你的房子突然就被留置权了，”他说。</i></blockquote></p><p> Many of the best stocks on George’s list at the top in 1999 ended up going down 99% or more. Many went to zero, even as their technologies and ideas carried on and built the internet we all use every day now.</p><p><blockquote>1999年乔治排行榜上名列前茅的许多最佳股票最终下跌了99%或更多。许多人归零，即使他们的技术和想法继续发展，并建立了我们现在每天都在使用的互联网。</blockquote></p><p> CCIV is likely a harbinger of more pain for those who ignore valuations and fundamentals.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些忽视估值和基本面的人来说，CCIV可能预示着更多痛苦。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-days-of-easy-money-in-the-stock-market-are-now-over-11614104263?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","TSLA":"特斯拉",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-days-of-easy-money-in-the-stock-market-are-now-over-11614104263?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1197533827","content_text":"Get ready for a return to normal. Lucid’s SPAC and ARK Invest’s ETFs carry the whiff of the late-1990s technology bubble.\nIgnore stock valuations and companies’ fundamentals at your peril.\nChurchill Capital Corp. ,a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) that had been rumored to merge with a Tesla-wannabe, Lucid Motors, finally announced Monday night that it is indeed going to do so. And in a classic Wall Street reaction, the market “sold the news” after long having “bought the rumor.”\nCCIV was up 500% from when it went public as a blank-check company, and today the stock market has wiped half of what its market value was perceived to be Monday at noon. This is a stock that I had warned about earlier this month as one of the many “Random Number Generators” (RNGs) that should be avoided. People and institutions who had for weeks been buying CCIV at $40, $50, $60 or even $70 per share have suddenly seen a huge wipeout of value.\nThey’re now, maybe, looking around at their other RNG SPACs and wondering if they should actually look at the valuations.\nReviewing this week’s ugly stock-market action in a broader context, you might note that Tesla Inc. at $900 — after the company reported a not-so-great quarter that included some questions about gross margin expansion — is looking like it could have been a top-maker itself.\nMany questionable EV stocks continued to rally for a week or two before getting their comeuppance this week. At least for a day or two. It will be interesting to look back in a month to see what the non-TSLA EV stocks do from here. I expect most to move much lower even than today’s quotes, which are much lower than last week’s quotes.\nPiling into ARK\nThese days everybody wants to be Cathie Wood from ARK Invest. She was an early bull on Tesla and bitcoinBTCUSD,6.03%and some of the the other themes that long-time followers of mine and I got into even earlier than she did. Her actively managed ETF, ARK Innovation ETF being the most famous, has performed very well, and her commentary has been spot on for a couple years now.\nBut I have bad news. Even as I am a fan of Cathie’s and wish her and her investors all the best, I can’t help but think of the story of George Gilder, with whom I’ve become friends in the decades since I wrote this in 2001 for TheStreet.com. (I just realized this article was published just two weeks after 9/11.):\n“Investors need to heed a few rules when evaluating companies in their portfolio: Cash is king, as cash flow becomes increasingly difficult to judge on an ongoing basis. As such, a simple glance at a company’s balance sheet can tell you a lot about whether it’s worthy of investment. Now that the huge daily run-ups of telco stocks are gone forever, the potential rewards of any business with questionable viability aren’t worth the risk of your capital. Look for real revenue on the books. As tech guru George Gilder and his followers have learned (at least, I hope they have by now), great technology doesn’t translate into a great investment. Companies need sales channels, and they need products for which there are immediate uses. You might be surprised that I didn’t mention profitability in that list. Profitability is naturally important, but even companies like Cisco probably won’t be profitable this quarter and perhaps for several more, as they’ll have to continue aligning capacity, employees and inventory with demand.\nLet me repeat the caveat here: You’ll never see the type of returns, at least in telecom and telecom-tech stocks, that we saw almost daily in the late 1990s. That’s another reason why these tech mutual fund guys, who keep preaching to stay the course, will take forever to get back to even.”\nThe hangover\nTelecom and telecom-tech stocks never again saw the kind of returns they did back in the late 1990s. I think the same can be said of EV stocks and many other of the favorites that Cathie Wood and her crowd of blind followers are these days plowing into as they put their money to work regardless of valuations.\nHere’s what George had to say in 2002:\n“In retrospect, it’s obvious that I should’ve subtly said, ‘Hey, things have gotten out of hand at JDS Uniphase, and it’s not worth what you’d have to pay for it,’” he says. Each month, he thought about providing a warning to his subscribers, and he decided against it every time. He had witnessed firsthand what others had dubbed the “Gilder effect”: the steep spike in a stock after he added that company to his list. It wasn’t unheard of for the price of a stock to jump by more than 50 percent within an hour of a newsletter’s release. If I had said, ‘Hey, this is a top, you should all sell,’ it would’ve been a cataclysmic event,” he says. “I’d think about telling people that they should sell half their holdings, and each time I’d conclude that my subscribers would be enraged. I also wondered what I’d precipitate if I did it.” Fully 50 percent of his readers had signed up for the report at what Gilder now calls the “hysterical peak” of the market. “Half of my subscribers would have been eternally grateful [for a warning], but the other half – the new ones – would’ve been enraged because they had just come in,” he says. “It was quite terrifying. I really didn’t know what to do.” In the end he did nothing. And soon enough, he had an entirely new set of distractions to fret over. “In the past, we’d sell out our investor conferences within two weeks,” Gilder says. “But in 2001, we sent out the same literature and the same invitations, and five or seven people signed up.” He lost the deposits that were placed to reserve hotel space for the gatherings. Newsletter renewal rates plummeted. A huge tax bill came due. By spring 2002, he’d laid off nearly half of his staff. “You can be just fabulously flush one moment, and then the next, you can’t make that last million-dollar payment to your partners, and there’s suddenly a lien on your house,” he says.\nMany of the best stocks on George’s list at the top in 1999 ended up going down 99% or more. Many went to zero, even as their technologies and ideas carried on and built the internet we all use every day now.\nCCIV is likely a harbinger of more pain for those who ignore valuations and fundamentals.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"ARKK":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1143,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363606459,"gmtCreate":1614130582571,"gmtModify":1634551065601,"author":{"id":"3555027716709439","authorId":"3555027716709439","name":"RLST","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b7bffaca05b5c5fc2858ada8443840","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555027716709439","idStr":"3555027716709439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363606459","repostId":"2113801076","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1719,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":369015784,"gmtCreate":1613988055248,"gmtModify":1634551648732,"author":{"id":"3555027716709439","authorId":"3555027716709439","name":"RLST","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b7bffaca05b5c5fc2858ada8443840","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555027716709439","idStr":"3555027716709439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/369015784","repostId":"1152031988","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152031988","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613985392,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1152031988?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-22 17:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Hopes That Rose and Fell With GameStop<blockquote>与游戏驿站一起兴衰的希望</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152031988","media":"The New York Times","summary":"Fueled by amateur traders and online enthusiasm, the struggling retailer’s shares took investors on ","content":"<p>Fueled by amateur traders and online enthusiasm, the struggling retailer’s shares took investors on a ride like no other. For them, it ended in different ways, including apathy, defiance and regret.</p><p><blockquote>在业余交易者和在线热情的推动下，这家陷入困境的零售商的股价给投资者带来了前所未有的上涨。对他们来说，它以不同的方式结束，包括冷漠、蔑视和遗憾。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3ae93ef5e461f7efc81eddb3dd867d2\" tg-width=\"2048\" tg-height=\"1366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Jacob Chalfant, a high school senior from Westfield, N.J., is still holding the shares he bought for $1,035. On Friday, they were worth $220.Credit...Bryan Anselm for The New York Times</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来自新泽西州韦斯特菲尔德的高中毕业生雅各布·查尔方特（Jacob Chalfant）仍持有他以1035美元购买的股票。周五，它们价值220美元。归功于《纽约时报》的布莱恩·安瑟姆</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Some wanted to be on the front lines of a revolution. Some wanted to be rich. And by the end of a wild two-week ride where fortunes were made and lost, some just hoped they’d be able to pay their rent.</p><p><blockquote>有些人想站在革命的前线。有些人想变得富有。在为期两周的疯狂旅程结束时，一些人只是希望他们能够支付房租。</blockquote></p><p>Winners and losers are made every day on Wall Street. And for a while, the unlikely trading boom around the stock of the beleaguered video game retailerGameStopput the little guy on top. Breathtaking fortunes appeared overnight.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街每天都有赢家和输家。有一段时间，围绕陷入困境的视频游戏零售商GameStop的股票出现了不太可能的交易繁荣，让这个小人物登上了顶峰。惊人的财富一夜之间出现了。</blockquote></p><p>But they disappeared almost as quickly.</p><p><blockquote>但他们几乎同样迅速地消失了。</blockquote></p><p>At its highest point,GameStop’s&nbsp;share price was $483. On Friday, the stock was worth $40.59. The trading frenzy — powered by online hype over a rebellion against traditional Wall Street powers — had created, and then&nbsp;destroyed, roughly $30 billion in on-paper wealth.</p><p><blockquote>最高点时，游戏驿站股价为483美元。周五，该股价值40.59美元。这场交易狂潮——由网上对反抗传统华尔街权力的炒作推动——创造并摧毁了大约300亿美元的账面财富。</blockquote></p><p>Many small-time investors who got caught up in the mania as it peaked lost big. Timing a trade perfectly is nearly impossible even for the best stock pickers, so even those who made money missed out on far greater riches if they didn’t sell at the rally’s peak.</p><p><blockquote>许多在狂热达到顶峰时陷入狂热的小投资者损失惨重。即使对于最好的选股者来说，完美地把握交易时机也几乎是不可能的，因此即使是那些赚钱的人，如果没有在反弹的顶峰卖出，也会错过更大的财富。</blockquote></p><p>Whether they set out to make a mint or make a point, these&nbsp;traders rode the GameStop wave&nbsp;up — and down.</p><p><blockquote>无论他们是为了赚钱还是为了表明自己的观点，这些交易者都在游戏驿站浪潮中上下波动。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f991998f6a7c1cae38b84edd05dacc3\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Shawn Daumer, 19, near his office in Crown Point, Ind. He said he sold his GameStop shares last week and walked away with more than $65,000 in profit.Credit...Evan Jenkins for The New York Times</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>19岁的肖恩·道默(Shawn Daumer)在印第安纳州皇冠点的办公室附近。他表示，他上周出售了游戏驿站股票，并获得了超过65,000美元的利润。图片来源：Evan Jenkins，纽约时报</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>Money on the Table</b></p><p><blockquote><b>桌上的钱</b></blockquote></p><p>What do you do when you’re 19 and suddenly holding a quarter-million dollars in stock? Shawn Daumer went to Hooters.</p><p><blockquote>当你19岁突然持有25万美元的股票时，你会怎么做？肖恩·道默去了猫头鹰餐厅。</blockquote></p><p>Armed with money partly from high school graduation gifts and winnings from trades on stocks like Tesla, Mr. Daumer had spent about $47,000on shares of GameStop the week before it went through the roof.</p><p><blockquote>道默带着部分来自高中毕业礼物和特斯拉等股票交易的奖金，在游戏驿站股价飙升前一周，他花了约47,000美元购买了该股。</blockquote></p><p>It was Jan. 26 — just two days into&nbsp;GameStop’s big week— when he and his brother hit up Hooters, scarfed down 30 wings and got 10 more to go. Two days later, GameStop hit its intraday peak of $483 and Mr. Daumer, a real estate broker in Valparaiso, Ind., was holding 1,233 shares. He was up more than a half-million dollars on his initial investment.</p><p><blockquote>那是1月26日——就在游戏驿站重要一周的两天——他和他的兄弟去了猫头鹰餐厅，狼吞虎咽地吃了30个鸡翅，还剩下10个。两天后，游戏驿站触及483美元的盘中高点，印第安纳州Valparaiso的房地产经纪人Daumer先生持有1233股。他的初始投资增加了50多万美元。</blockquote></p><p>Mr. Daumer traced his interest in GameStop to the same place many others did: Reddit’s WallStreetBets forum, where armchair traders gather for raunchy jokes, tales of success and even to brag about enormous losses.</p><p><blockquote>道默先生将他对游戏驿站的兴趣追溯到许多其他人所做的同一个地方：Reddit的WallStreetBets论坛，纸上谈兵的交易者聚集在这里，分享淫秽笑话、成功故事，甚至吹嘘巨大的损失。</blockquote></p><p><b>Understand What Happened With GameStop</b></p><p><blockquote><b>了解游戏驿站发生了什么</b></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Shares in GameStop, the video retailer,have crashed&nbsp;from their January highs, which were driven by memes on social media.</li><li>Amateur traders&nbsp;egging on one another on Redditbet heavily on shares of the company&nbsp;in January, sending the price up more than 1,700 percent at one point.</li><li>The wave was in part aimed athurting large hedge funds&nbsp;that had been&nbsp;short selling&nbsp;— betting against —&nbsp;GameStop stock. Some of those fundsexperienced huge losses&nbsp;as a result.</li><li>But many of the individual investors who pumped up the stock could lose huge amounts of money, too. Somebelieve the price will go back up&nbsp;and are refusing to sell, even as the share price has collapsed.</li><li>Now, regulators are looking into&nbsp;how the rally started&nbsp;and whethernew rules&nbsp;should be created because of it.</li></ul>“Really the biggest part is once you see everybody buying shares day after day, and seeing it live on your own screen, and watching it go up,” Mr. Daumer said in the midst of GameStop’s surge. “It’s follow the trend, you know? If that’s the trend, follow it and it makes you money.”</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在社交媒体上的表情包推动下，视频零售商游戏驿站的股价已从一月份的高点暴跌。</li><li>1月份，业余交易者在Redditbet上互相怂恿，大量买入该公司股票，导致股价一度上涨超过1700%。</li><li>这波浪潮的部分目的是打击一直在卖空（做空）游戏驿站股票的大型对冲基金。其中一些基金因此遭受了巨大损失。</li><li>但许多推高该股的个人投资者也可能损失巨额资金。有些人相信价格会回升，并拒绝出售，即使股价已经暴跌。</li><li>现在，监管机构正在调查反弹是如何开始的，以及是否应该因此制定新规则。</li></ul>“实际上，最重要的部分是一旦你看到每个人日复一日地购买股票，并在你自己的屏幕上看到它的直播，并看着它上涨，”道默先生在游戏驿站的飙升中说道。“这就是跟随趋势，你知道吗？如果这是趋势，跟随它，它会让你赚钱。”</blockquote></p><p>But GameStop’s stock abruptly turned down when the trading app Robinhood and other brokerage firms announced a slew of restrictions on the trading of a handful of stocks that had been spiking. Mr. Daumer had about $200,000 in potential profits evaporate almost immediately.</p><p><blockquote>但当交易应用程序Robinhood和其他经纪公司宣布对少数飙升股票的交易实施一系列限制时，游戏驿站的股价突然下跌。道默先生大约20万美元的潜在利润几乎立即蒸发。</blockquote></p><p>“I’m still up 500 percent,” he said at the time. “I’m OK.” Besides, Mr. Daumer and his fellow Redditors believed GameStop would soar once more: “We’re going to $1,000,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“我仍然上涨了500%，”他当时说道。“我没事。”此外，Daumer先生和他的Reddit用户同事相信游戏驿站将再次飙升：“我们将达到1,000美元，”他说。</blockquote></p><p>They never came close.</p><p><blockquote>他们从未接近过。</blockquote></p><p>Last week,as the stock plunged&nbsp;72 percent in two days, he’d had enough. Mr. Daumer put in an order to sell on Tuesday afternoon, and the order was filled Wednesday morning at a price of $91.22.</p><p><blockquote>上周，当该股在两天内暴跌72%时，他已经受够了。Daumer先生在周二下午下了卖出订单，该订单于周三上午以91.22美元的价格被执行。</blockquote></p><p>He walked away with more than $65,000 in profit, more than doubling his investment.</p><p><blockquote>他带走了超过65,000美元的利润，是他投资的两倍多。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Not everyone was so lucky.</p><p><blockquote>不是每个人都这么幸运。</blockquote></p><p><b>A Rude Awakening</b></p><p><blockquote><b>猛然醒悟</b></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d56965a819f901d26e04fec085eed4a0\" tg-width=\"2048\" tg-height=\"1365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Nora Samir held her GameStop shares too long and lost more than half of what she invested.Credit...David Maurice Smith for The New York Times</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Nora Samir持有游戏驿站股票时间过长，损失了一半以上的投资。图片来源：David Maurice Smith，《纽约时报》</span></p></blockquote></p><p>It seemed like a dream to Nora Samir.</p><p><blockquote>对诺拉·萨米尔来说，这就像一场梦。</blockquote></p><p>She woke up in the middle of the night of Jan. 27 at her home in Sydney. On the other side of the world, GameStop was soaring.</p><p><blockquote>1月27日半夜，她在悉尼的家中醒来。在地球的另一边，游戏驿站正在腾飞。</blockquote></p><p>The $735 she’d put in the day before had doubled. She raced downstairs to tell her mother, who was sleeping.</p><p><blockquote>她前一天投入的735美元已经翻了一番。她跑下楼去告诉正在睡觉的母亲。</blockquote></p><p>“Nora, don’t be greedy,” her mother warned. “You need to take it out.”</p><p><blockquote>“诺拉，不要贪心，”她妈妈警告说。“你得把它拿出来。”</blockquote></p><p>But Ms. Samir, 24, a child-health researcher at the University of New South Wales and a stock market neophyte,</p><p><blockquote>但24岁的萨米尔是新南威尔士大学的儿童健康研究员，也是股市新手，</blockquote></p><p>didn’t sell — she bought.</p><p><blockquote>没卖，她买了。</blockquote></p><p>After investing about $800 more, she owned just over nine shares of GameStop. She later plowed $1,800 into BlackBerry, the cellphone maker that once dominated mobile email and hadbeen swept up in the frenzy.</p><p><blockquote>在又投资了约800美元后，她拥有了9股多一点的游戏驿站股票。后来，她向黑莓投入了1,800美元，这家手机制造商曾经在移动电子邮件领域占据主导地位，并在狂热中被席卷。</blockquote></p><p>“I was on a high,” she admitted. “When the stock is going up, you don’t think of how low it can go.”</p><p><blockquote>“我当时很兴奋，”她承认。“当股票上涨时，你不会考虑它能跌到多低。”</blockquote></p><p>The high didn’t last long — and the fall was made worse when her trading app crashed, leaving her with little choice but to hold on while GameStop shares plunged.</p><p><blockquote>高潮并没有持续多久，当她的交易应用程序崩溃时，跌势变得更糟，让她别无选择，只能在游戏驿站股价暴跌时坚持下去。</blockquote></p><p>She managed to sell one share on the way down, for $134. The shares she still owned on Friday were worth $528. She’s lost more than half what she put into GameStop.</p><p><blockquote>她设法在下跌过程中以134美元的价格出售了一股股票。周五她仍持有的股票价值528美元。她在游戏驿站投入的资金已经损失了一半以上。</blockquote></p><p>The lesson, Ms. Samir said: “Don’t be greedy.”</p><p><blockquote>萨米尔女士的教训是：“不要贪婪。”</blockquote></p><p><b>You Only Live Once</b></p><p><blockquote><b>你只能活一次</b></blockquote></p><p>Jacob Chalfant, a high school senior from Westfield, N.J., enjoyed how his “diamond hands” were putting the squeeze on Wall Street’s hedge funds.</p><p><blockquote>来自新泽西州韦斯特菲尔德的高中生雅各布·查尔方特（Jacob Chalfant）很享受他的“钻石手”如何挤压华尔街的对冲基金。</blockquote></p><p>A poster on WallStreetBets since he was 15, Mr. Chalfant, now 18, relished the GameStop rally for the pressure it put on firms like Melvin Capital, which had bet that GameStop’s shares would fall.</p><p><blockquote>现年18岁的查尔凡特从15岁起就在WallStreetBets上发帖，他很喜欢游戏驿站的上涨，因为它给Melvin Capital等公司带来了压力，Melvin Capital曾押注游戏驿站股价将下跌。</blockquote></p><p>In the parlance of Reddit, Mr. Chalfant’s diamond-hard hands won’t fold, unlike the “paper hands” of sellers. He’s still holding the shares he bought for $1,035 — about a month’s wages from his job at a pizza shop and his freelance photography business — when GameStop was trading at $290. On Friday, his investment was worth $220.</p><p><blockquote>用Reddit的话说，Chalfant先生钻石般坚硬的手不会折叠，不像卖家的“纸手”。他仍然持有他以1,035美元购买的股票——大约是他在披萨店工作和自由摄影业务一个月的工资——当时游戏驿站的交易价格为290美元。周五，他的投资价值220美元。</blockquote></p><p>“I’ve come to terms with the fact that I’ve already lost the money,” he said. “Realistically, the stock is not going to go where it was before.”</p><p><blockquote>“我已经接受了我已经损失了钱的事实，”他说。“实际上，该股不会回到以前的水平。”</blockquote></p><p>But the losses are an investment, too, Mr. Chalfant said. They’ve earned him “internet points” on WallStreetBets. “If you’re saying, ‘I’m still holding,’ you have more clout than if you didn’t,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>但查尔方特表示，损失也是一项投资。他们在WallStreetBets上为他赢得了“互联网积分”。“如果你说‘我仍然持有’，你就比不持有更有影响力，”他说。</blockquote></p><p>(Many on the WallStreetBets forum insist that GameStop’s shares may surge again. On the other hand, another Reddit forum opened last week where users share tales of losses from trading the stock whose ticker symbol is GME: GMEbagholdersclub.)</p><p><blockquote>（WallStreetBets论坛上的许多人坚持认为游戏驿站的股价可能会再次飙升。另一方面，另一个Reddit论坛上周开放，用户在该论坛上分享了交易股票代码为GME：GMEbagholdersclub的亏损故事。）</blockquote></p><p>Mr. Chalfant said he and other teenage traders enjoy the gamification of the investing, and many of his friends had gotten in on GameStop just because they thought it was funny, not to make money.</p><p><blockquote>查尔凡特表示，他和其他青少年交易者喜欢投资的游戏化，他的许多朋友加入游戏驿站只是因为他们认为这很有趣，而不是为了赚钱。</blockquote></p><p>“We’re living in a system where there’s no such thing as justice anymore and the entire world is falling apart,” Mr. Chalfant said. “Nothing really matters, so we might as well try to have fun while we’re here.”</p><p><blockquote>“我们生活在一个不再有正义的体系中，整个世界正在分崩离析，”查尔方特先生说。“什么都不重要，所以我们还是在这里玩得开心点吧。”</blockquote></p><p><b>Collateral Damage</b></p><p><blockquote><b>附带损害</b></blockquote></p><p>Terrell Jones didn’t need to invest in GameStop to lose money off the frenzy.</p><p><blockquote>Terrell Jones不需要投资游戏驿站就能在狂热中赔钱。</blockquote></p><p>Mr. Jones, a college student from Kenosha, Wis., bought $300 in shares of AMC, the movie theater chain whose stock was also swept up in the attempt to squeeze the short sellers who profit as stocks decline.</p><p><blockquote>琼斯是威斯康星州基诺沙市的一名大学生，他以300美元的价格购买了连锁影院AMC的股票，该公司的股票也遭到了抛售，试图挤压那些在股价下跌时获利的卖空者。</blockquote></p><p>“I just got caught up in the social media hype and just dove right into it,” he said. “I fell for it.”</p><p><blockquote>“我刚刚被社交媒体的炒作所吸引，并一头扎进去，”他说。“我上当了。”</blockquote></p><p>When AMC started to fall and he had lost $112, Mr. Jones, 24, panicked.</p><p><blockquote>当AMC开始下跌，他损失了112美元时，24岁的琼斯先生惊慌失措。</blockquote></p><p>“I just had to get out of there as soon as possible,” he said. “It’s a lot of money, we’re in the middle of a pandemic and I have rent that needs to be paid.”</p><p><blockquote>“我只是必须尽快离开那里，”他说。“这是一大笔钱，我们正处于大流行之中，我有房租需要支付。”</blockquote></p><p>Mr. Jones, 24, had never invested in the stock market before. Now, though, he feels that he learned a lesson.</p><p><blockquote>24岁的琼斯先生以前从未投资过股市。不过，现在他觉得自己吸取了教训。</blockquote></p><p>“I realized pretty quick that people like me were up against those billionaires,” he said. “And at the end of the day, those people always find a way to win.”</p><p><blockquote>“我很快意识到像我这样的人面临的是那些亿万富翁，”他说。“最终，那些人总能找到获胜的方法。”</blockquote></p><p><b>Losing His Head</b></p><p><blockquote><b>失去理智</b></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1568d73f6db637748479d972e48a4b97\" tg-width=\"2048\" tg-height=\"1595\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>“This is money I have already written off,” said C. Arthur Davitt, who lives in Chicago.Credit...Lyndon French for The New York Times</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>住在芝加哥的C·阿瑟·戴维特说：“这是我已经注销的钱。”</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Ordinarily, C. Arthur Davitt is a model of financial discipline.</p><p><blockquote>通常，C.Arthur Davitt是财务纪律的典范。</blockquote></p><p>He automatically sweeps $200 a month into an index fund, saves enough to get a company match on his 401(k) and has been aggressively paying down his $35,000 in graduate school debt.</p><p><blockquote>他每月自动向指数基金存入200美元，攒够了401(k)计划的公司匹配，并一直在积极偿还35,000美元的研究生院债务。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>But Mr. Davitt, 29, thought it might be fun to get in on some of the skyrocketing stocks. He put less than $1,500 in GameStop and AMC — the GameStop portion is now down by nearly half, and his stake in AMC lost more than 20 percent.</p><p><blockquote>但29岁的戴维特先生认为，买入一些飙升的股票可能会很有趣。他在游戏驿站和AMC的投资不到1500美元——游戏驿站部分现在下降了近一半，他在AMC的股份损失了20%以上。</blockquote></p><p>“I am not a gambler by nature,” he said, “and this is money I have already written off.”</p><p><blockquote>“我天生不是赌徒，”他说，“这是我已经注销的钱。”</blockquote></p><p>Mr. Davitt, who lives in Chicago and works for a company that provides worker assistance programs for employers, figures he might as well hold on to both companies. GameStop just named several new executives, which could help inject new life into the company, he said, and AMC could see a bounce once more people start venturing out of their homes.</p><p><blockquote>戴维特先生住在芝加哥，在一家为雇主提供工人援助计划的公司工作，他认为他还不如保留这两家公司。他表示，游戏驿站刚刚任命了几位新高管，这可能有助于为公司注入新的活力，一旦更多人开始走出家门，AMC可能会出现反弹。</blockquote></p><p>“If I didn’t like GameStop or AMC,” Mr. Davitt said, “I wouldn’t be finding this as enjoyable.”</p><p><blockquote>“如果我不喜欢游戏驿站或AMC，”戴维特先生说，“我就不会觉得这很有趣。”</blockquote></p><p><b>Another on the Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>另一个在线上</b></blockquote></p><p>By almost any measure, Mr. Daumer, the Indiana teenager, is one of the winners of the GameStop trade. He more than doubled his money, even if he didn’t score the biggest possible payday.</p><p><blockquote>几乎以任何标准衡量，印第安纳州少年道默先生都是游戏驿站交易的赢家之一。他的钱增加了一倍多，即使他没有获得最大可能的发薪日。</blockquote></p><p>“Do you fish?” he asked, searching for a way to explain the experience.</p><p><blockquote>“你钓鱼吗？”他问道，寻找一种方法来解释这段经历。</blockquote></p><p>When you’re fishing, he said, and you feel a tug on your line, it might be just a nibble or it might be a bite. If you wait to feel a stronger tug, you risk losing the fish you didn’t know you had.</p><p><blockquote>他说，当你钓鱼时，你感觉到鱼线被拉扯，可能只是轻轻一咬，也可能是一口。如果你等着感受到更强的拉力，你就有可能失去你不知道拥有的鱼。</blockquote></p><p>The peak, he said, was that kind of moment. He thought it was just a small nibble, and decided to wait.</p><p><blockquote>他说，巅峰就是这样的时刻。他认为这只是一小口，并决定等待。</blockquote></p><p>“The fish got away,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“鱼跑了，”他说。</blockquote></p><p>But there are others out there to be hooked, he said. He’s already dabbling in shares of a penny stock, Castor Maritime, which is based in Cyprus. It’s up over 300 percent so far this year.</p><p><blockquote>但他说，还有其他人会被迷住。他已经涉足了总部位于塞浦路斯的细价股Castor Maritime的股票。今年到目前为止，它已经上涨了300%以上。</blockquote></p><p>What kind of business is the company in?</p><p><blockquote>公司是做什么生意的？</blockquote></p><p>“You know what? I wish I could tell you,” Mr. Daumer said. “I just like the numbers.”</p><p><blockquote>“你知道吗？我希望我能告诉你，”道默先生说。“我就是喜欢这些数字。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1608616134662","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Hopes That Rose and Fell With GameStop<blockquote>与游戏驿站一起兴衰的希望</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Hopes That Rose and Fell With GameStop<blockquote>与游戏驿站一起兴衰的希望</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The New York Times</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-22 17:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Fueled by amateur traders and online enthusiasm, the struggling retailer’s shares took investors on a ride like no other. For them, it ended in different ways, including apathy, defiance and regret.</p><p><blockquote>在业余交易者和在线热情的推动下，这家陷入困境的零售商的股价给投资者带来了前所未有的上涨。对他们来说，它以不同的方式结束，包括冷漠、蔑视和遗憾。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3ae93ef5e461f7efc81eddb3dd867d2\" tg-width=\"2048\" tg-height=\"1366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Jacob Chalfant, a high school senior from Westfield, N.J., is still holding the shares he bought for $1,035. On Friday, they were worth $220.Credit...Bryan Anselm for The New York Times</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来自新泽西州韦斯特菲尔德的高中毕业生雅各布·查尔方特（Jacob Chalfant）仍持有他以1035美元购买的股票。周五，它们价值220美元。归功于《纽约时报》的布莱恩·安瑟姆</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Some wanted to be on the front lines of a revolution. Some wanted to be rich. And by the end of a wild two-week ride where fortunes were made and lost, some just hoped they’d be able to pay their rent.</p><p><blockquote>有些人想站在革命的前线。有些人想变得富有。在为期两周的疯狂旅程结束时，一些人只是希望他们能够支付房租。</blockquote></p><p>Winners and losers are made every day on Wall Street. And for a while, the unlikely trading boom around the stock of the beleaguered video game retailerGameStopput the little guy on top. Breathtaking fortunes appeared overnight.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街每天都有赢家和输家。有一段时间，围绕陷入困境的视频游戏零售商GameStop的股票出现了不太可能的交易繁荣，让这个小人物登上了顶峰。惊人的财富一夜之间出现了。</blockquote></p><p>But they disappeared almost as quickly.</p><p><blockquote>但他们几乎同样迅速地消失了。</blockquote></p><p>At its highest point,GameStop’s&nbsp;share price was $483. On Friday, the stock was worth $40.59. The trading frenzy — powered by online hype over a rebellion against traditional Wall Street powers — had created, and then&nbsp;destroyed, roughly $30 billion in on-paper wealth.</p><p><blockquote>最高点时，游戏驿站股价为483美元。周五，该股价值40.59美元。这场交易狂潮——由网上对反抗传统华尔街权力的炒作推动——创造并摧毁了大约300亿美元的账面财富。</blockquote></p><p>Many small-time investors who got caught up in the mania as it peaked lost big. Timing a trade perfectly is nearly impossible even for the best stock pickers, so even those who made money missed out on far greater riches if they didn’t sell at the rally’s peak.</p><p><blockquote>许多在狂热达到顶峰时陷入狂热的小投资者损失惨重。即使对于最好的选股者来说，完美地把握交易时机也几乎是不可能的，因此即使是那些赚钱的人，如果没有在反弹的顶峰卖出，也会错过更大的财富。</blockquote></p><p>Whether they set out to make a mint or make a point, these&nbsp;traders rode the GameStop wave&nbsp;up — and down.</p><p><blockquote>无论他们是为了赚钱还是为了表明自己的观点，这些交易者都在游戏驿站浪潮中上下波动。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f991998f6a7c1cae38b84edd05dacc3\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Shawn Daumer, 19, near his office in Crown Point, Ind. He said he sold his GameStop shares last week and walked away with more than $65,000 in profit.Credit...Evan Jenkins for The New York Times</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>19岁的肖恩·道默(Shawn Daumer)在印第安纳州皇冠点的办公室附近。他表示，他上周出售了游戏驿站股票，并获得了超过65,000美元的利润。图片来源：Evan Jenkins，纽约时报</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>Money on the Table</b></p><p><blockquote><b>桌上的钱</b></blockquote></p><p>What do you do when you’re 19 and suddenly holding a quarter-million dollars in stock? Shawn Daumer went to Hooters.</p><p><blockquote>当你19岁突然持有25万美元的股票时，你会怎么做？肖恩·道默去了猫头鹰餐厅。</blockquote></p><p>Armed with money partly from high school graduation gifts and winnings from trades on stocks like Tesla, Mr. Daumer had spent about $47,000on shares of GameStop the week before it went through the roof.</p><p><blockquote>道默带着部分来自高中毕业礼物和特斯拉等股票交易的奖金，在游戏驿站股价飙升前一周，他花了约47,000美元购买了该股。</blockquote></p><p>It was Jan. 26 — just two days into&nbsp;GameStop’s big week— when he and his brother hit up Hooters, scarfed down 30 wings and got 10 more to go. Two days later, GameStop hit its intraday peak of $483 and Mr. Daumer, a real estate broker in Valparaiso, Ind., was holding 1,233 shares. He was up more than a half-million dollars on his initial investment.</p><p><blockquote>那是1月26日——就在游戏驿站重要一周的两天——他和他的兄弟去了猫头鹰餐厅，狼吞虎咽地吃了30个鸡翅，还剩下10个。两天后，游戏驿站触及483美元的盘中高点，印第安纳州Valparaiso的房地产经纪人Daumer先生持有1233股。他的初始投资增加了50多万美元。</blockquote></p><p>Mr. Daumer traced his interest in GameStop to the same place many others did: Reddit’s WallStreetBets forum, where armchair traders gather for raunchy jokes, tales of success and even to brag about enormous losses.</p><p><blockquote>道默先生将他对游戏驿站的兴趣追溯到许多其他人所做的同一个地方：Reddit的WallStreetBets论坛，纸上谈兵的交易者聚集在这里，分享淫秽笑话、成功故事，甚至吹嘘巨大的损失。</blockquote></p><p><b>Understand What Happened With GameStop</b></p><p><blockquote><b>了解游戏驿站发生了什么</b></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Shares in GameStop, the video retailer,have crashed&nbsp;from their January highs, which were driven by memes on social media.</li><li>Amateur traders&nbsp;egging on one another on Redditbet heavily on shares of the company&nbsp;in January, sending the price up more than 1,700 percent at one point.</li><li>The wave was in part aimed athurting large hedge funds&nbsp;that had been&nbsp;short selling&nbsp;— betting against —&nbsp;GameStop stock. Some of those fundsexperienced huge losses&nbsp;as a result.</li><li>But many of the individual investors who pumped up the stock could lose huge amounts of money, too. Somebelieve the price will go back up&nbsp;and are refusing to sell, even as the share price has collapsed.</li><li>Now, regulators are looking into&nbsp;how the rally started&nbsp;and whethernew rules&nbsp;should be created because of it.</li></ul>“Really the biggest part is once you see everybody buying shares day after day, and seeing it live on your own screen, and watching it go up,” Mr. Daumer said in the midst of GameStop’s surge. “It’s follow the trend, you know? If that’s the trend, follow it and it makes you money.”</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在社交媒体上的表情包推动下，视频零售商游戏驿站的股价已从一月份的高点暴跌。</li><li>1月份，业余交易者在Redditbet上互相怂恿，大量买入该公司股票，导致股价一度上涨超过1700%。</li><li>这波浪潮的部分目的是打击一直在卖空（做空）游戏驿站股票的大型对冲基金。其中一些基金因此遭受了巨大损失。</li><li>但许多推高该股的个人投资者也可能损失巨额资金。有些人相信价格会回升，并拒绝出售，即使股价已经暴跌。</li><li>现在，监管机构正在调查反弹是如何开始的，以及是否应该因此制定新规则。</li></ul>“实际上，最重要的部分是一旦你看到每个人日复一日地购买股票，并在你自己的屏幕上看到它的直播，并看着它上涨，”道默先生在游戏驿站的飙升中说道。“这就是跟随趋势，你知道吗？如果这是趋势，跟随它，它会让你赚钱。”</blockquote></p><p>But GameStop’s stock abruptly turned down when the trading app Robinhood and other brokerage firms announced a slew of restrictions on the trading of a handful of stocks that had been spiking. Mr. Daumer had about $200,000 in potential profits evaporate almost immediately.</p><p><blockquote>但当交易应用程序Robinhood和其他经纪公司宣布对少数飙升股票的交易实施一系列限制时，游戏驿站的股价突然下跌。道默先生大约20万美元的潜在利润几乎立即蒸发。</blockquote></p><p>“I’m still up 500 percent,” he said at the time. “I’m OK.” Besides, Mr. Daumer and his fellow Redditors believed GameStop would soar once more: “We’re going to $1,000,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“我仍然上涨了500%，”他当时说道。“我没事。”此外，Daumer先生和他的Reddit用户同事相信游戏驿站将再次飙升：“我们将达到1,000美元，”他说。</blockquote></p><p>They never came close.</p><p><blockquote>他们从未接近过。</blockquote></p><p>Last week,as the stock plunged&nbsp;72 percent in two days, he’d had enough. Mr. Daumer put in an order to sell on Tuesday afternoon, and the order was filled Wednesday morning at a price of $91.22.</p><p><blockquote>上周，当该股在两天内暴跌72%时，他已经受够了。Daumer先生在周二下午下了卖出订单，该订单于周三上午以91.22美元的价格被执行。</blockquote></p><p>He walked away with more than $65,000 in profit, more than doubling his investment.</p><p><blockquote>他带走了超过65,000美元的利润，是他投资的两倍多。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Not everyone was so lucky.</p><p><blockquote>不是每个人都这么幸运。</blockquote></p><p><b>A Rude Awakening</b></p><p><blockquote><b>猛然醒悟</b></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d56965a819f901d26e04fec085eed4a0\" tg-width=\"2048\" tg-height=\"1365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Nora Samir held her GameStop shares too long and lost more than half of what she invested.Credit...David Maurice Smith for The New York Times</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Nora Samir持有游戏驿站股票时间过长，损失了一半以上的投资。图片来源：David Maurice Smith，《纽约时报》</span></p></blockquote></p><p>It seemed like a dream to Nora Samir.</p><p><blockquote>对诺拉·萨米尔来说，这就像一场梦。</blockquote></p><p>She woke up in the middle of the night of Jan. 27 at her home in Sydney. On the other side of the world, GameStop was soaring.</p><p><blockquote>1月27日半夜，她在悉尼的家中醒来。在地球的另一边，游戏驿站正在腾飞。</blockquote></p><p>The $735 she’d put in the day before had doubled. She raced downstairs to tell her mother, who was sleeping.</p><p><blockquote>她前一天投入的735美元已经翻了一番。她跑下楼去告诉正在睡觉的母亲。</blockquote></p><p>“Nora, don’t be greedy,” her mother warned. “You need to take it out.”</p><p><blockquote>“诺拉，不要贪心，”她妈妈警告说。“你得把它拿出来。”</blockquote></p><p>But Ms. Samir, 24, a child-health researcher at the University of New South Wales and a stock market neophyte,</p><p><blockquote>但24岁的萨米尔是新南威尔士大学的儿童健康研究员，也是股市新手，</blockquote></p><p>didn’t sell — she bought.</p><p><blockquote>没卖，她买了。</blockquote></p><p>After investing about $800 more, she owned just over nine shares of GameStop. She later plowed $1,800 into BlackBerry, the cellphone maker that once dominated mobile email and hadbeen swept up in the frenzy.</p><p><blockquote>在又投资了约800美元后，她拥有了9股多一点的游戏驿站股票。后来，她向黑莓投入了1,800美元，这家手机制造商曾经在移动电子邮件领域占据主导地位，并在狂热中被席卷。</blockquote></p><p>“I was on a high,” she admitted. “When the stock is going up, you don’t think of how low it can go.”</p><p><blockquote>“我当时很兴奋，”她承认。“当股票上涨时，你不会考虑它能跌到多低。”</blockquote></p><p>The high didn’t last long — and the fall was made worse when her trading app crashed, leaving her with little choice but to hold on while GameStop shares plunged.</p><p><blockquote>高潮并没有持续多久，当她的交易应用程序崩溃时，跌势变得更糟，让她别无选择，只能在游戏驿站股价暴跌时坚持下去。</blockquote></p><p>She managed to sell one share on the way down, for $134. The shares she still owned on Friday were worth $528. She’s lost more than half what she put into GameStop.</p><p><blockquote>她设法在下跌过程中以134美元的价格出售了一股股票。周五她仍持有的股票价值528美元。她在游戏驿站投入的资金已经损失了一半以上。</blockquote></p><p>The lesson, Ms. Samir said: “Don’t be greedy.”</p><p><blockquote>萨米尔女士的教训是：“不要贪婪。”</blockquote></p><p><b>You Only Live Once</b></p><p><blockquote><b>你只能活一次</b></blockquote></p><p>Jacob Chalfant, a high school senior from Westfield, N.J., enjoyed how his “diamond hands” were putting the squeeze on Wall Street’s hedge funds.</p><p><blockquote>来自新泽西州韦斯特菲尔德的高中生雅各布·查尔方特（Jacob Chalfant）很享受他的“钻石手”如何挤压华尔街的对冲基金。</blockquote></p><p>A poster on WallStreetBets since he was 15, Mr. Chalfant, now 18, relished the GameStop rally for the pressure it put on firms like Melvin Capital, which had bet that GameStop’s shares would fall.</p><p><blockquote>现年18岁的查尔凡特从15岁起就在WallStreetBets上发帖，他很喜欢游戏驿站的上涨，因为它给Melvin Capital等公司带来了压力，Melvin Capital曾押注游戏驿站股价将下跌。</blockquote></p><p>In the parlance of Reddit, Mr. Chalfant’s diamond-hard hands won’t fold, unlike the “paper hands” of sellers. He’s still holding the shares he bought for $1,035 — about a month’s wages from his job at a pizza shop and his freelance photography business — when GameStop was trading at $290. On Friday, his investment was worth $220.</p><p><blockquote>用Reddit的话说，Chalfant先生钻石般坚硬的手不会折叠，不像卖家的“纸手”。他仍然持有他以1,035美元购买的股票——大约是他在披萨店工作和自由摄影业务一个月的工资——当时游戏驿站的交易价格为290美元。周五，他的投资价值220美元。</blockquote></p><p>“I’ve come to terms with the fact that I’ve already lost the money,” he said. “Realistically, the stock is not going to go where it was before.”</p><p><blockquote>“我已经接受了我已经损失了钱的事实，”他说。“实际上，该股不会回到以前的水平。”</blockquote></p><p>But the losses are an investment, too, Mr. Chalfant said. They’ve earned him “internet points” on WallStreetBets. “If you’re saying, ‘I’m still holding,’ you have more clout than if you didn’t,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>但查尔方特表示，损失也是一项投资。他们在WallStreetBets上为他赢得了“互联网积分”。“如果你说‘我仍然持有’，你就比不持有更有影响力，”他说。</blockquote></p><p>(Many on the WallStreetBets forum insist that GameStop’s shares may surge again. On the other hand, another Reddit forum opened last week where users share tales of losses from trading the stock whose ticker symbol is GME: GMEbagholdersclub.)</p><p><blockquote>（WallStreetBets论坛上的许多人坚持认为游戏驿站的股价可能会再次飙升。另一方面，另一个Reddit论坛上周开放，用户在该论坛上分享了交易股票代码为GME：GMEbagholdersclub的亏损故事。）</blockquote></p><p>Mr. Chalfant said he and other teenage traders enjoy the gamification of the investing, and many of his friends had gotten in on GameStop just because they thought it was funny, not to make money.</p><p><blockquote>查尔凡特表示，他和其他青少年交易者喜欢投资的游戏化，他的许多朋友加入游戏驿站只是因为他们认为这很有趣，而不是为了赚钱。</blockquote></p><p>“We’re living in a system where there’s no such thing as justice anymore and the entire world is falling apart,” Mr. Chalfant said. “Nothing really matters, so we might as well try to have fun while we’re here.”</p><p><blockquote>“我们生活在一个不再有正义的体系中，整个世界正在分崩离析，”查尔方特先生说。“什么都不重要，所以我们还是在这里玩得开心点吧。”</blockquote></p><p><b>Collateral Damage</b></p><p><blockquote><b>附带损害</b></blockquote></p><p>Terrell Jones didn’t need to invest in GameStop to lose money off the frenzy.</p><p><blockquote>Terrell Jones不需要投资游戏驿站就能在狂热中赔钱。</blockquote></p><p>Mr. Jones, a college student from Kenosha, Wis., bought $300 in shares of AMC, the movie theater chain whose stock was also swept up in the attempt to squeeze the short sellers who profit as stocks decline.</p><p><blockquote>琼斯是威斯康星州基诺沙市的一名大学生，他以300美元的价格购买了连锁影院AMC的股票，该公司的股票也遭到了抛售，试图挤压那些在股价下跌时获利的卖空者。</blockquote></p><p>“I just got caught up in the social media hype and just dove right into it,” he said. “I fell for it.”</p><p><blockquote>“我刚刚被社交媒体的炒作所吸引，并一头扎进去，”他说。“我上当了。”</blockquote></p><p>When AMC started to fall and he had lost $112, Mr. Jones, 24, panicked.</p><p><blockquote>当AMC开始下跌，他损失了112美元时，24岁的琼斯先生惊慌失措。</blockquote></p><p>“I just had to get out of there as soon as possible,” he said. “It’s a lot of money, we’re in the middle of a pandemic and I have rent that needs to be paid.”</p><p><blockquote>“我只是必须尽快离开那里，”他说。“这是一大笔钱，我们正处于大流行之中，我有房租需要支付。”</blockquote></p><p>Mr. Jones, 24, had never invested in the stock market before. Now, though, he feels that he learned a lesson.</p><p><blockquote>24岁的琼斯先生以前从未投资过股市。不过，现在他觉得自己吸取了教训。</blockquote></p><p>“I realized pretty quick that people like me were up against those billionaires,” he said. “And at the end of the day, those people always find a way to win.”</p><p><blockquote>“我很快意识到像我这样的人面临的是那些亿万富翁，”他说。“最终，那些人总能找到获胜的方法。”</blockquote></p><p><b>Losing His Head</b></p><p><blockquote><b>失去理智</b></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1568d73f6db637748479d972e48a4b97\" tg-width=\"2048\" tg-height=\"1595\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>“This is money I have already written off,” said C. Arthur Davitt, who lives in Chicago.Credit...Lyndon French for The New York Times</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>住在芝加哥的C·阿瑟·戴维特说：“这是我已经注销的钱。”</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Ordinarily, C. Arthur Davitt is a model of financial discipline.</p><p><blockquote>通常，C.Arthur Davitt是财务纪律的典范。</blockquote></p><p>He automatically sweeps $200 a month into an index fund, saves enough to get a company match on his 401(k) and has been aggressively paying down his $35,000 in graduate school debt.</p><p><blockquote>他每月自动向指数基金存入200美元，攒够了401(k)计划的公司匹配，并一直在积极偿还35,000美元的研究生院债务。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>But Mr. Davitt, 29, thought it might be fun to get in on some of the skyrocketing stocks. He put less than $1,500 in GameStop and AMC — the GameStop portion is now down by nearly half, and his stake in AMC lost more than 20 percent.</p><p><blockquote>但29岁的戴维特先生认为，买入一些飙升的股票可能会很有趣。他在游戏驿站和AMC的投资不到1500美元——游戏驿站部分现在下降了近一半，他在AMC的股份损失了20%以上。</blockquote></p><p>“I am not a gambler by nature,” he said, “and this is money I have already written off.”</p><p><blockquote>“我天生不是赌徒，”他说，“这是我已经注销的钱。”</blockquote></p><p>Mr. Davitt, who lives in Chicago and works for a company that provides worker assistance programs for employers, figures he might as well hold on to both companies. GameStop just named several new executives, which could help inject new life into the company, he said, and AMC could see a bounce once more people start venturing out of their homes.</p><p><blockquote>戴维特先生住在芝加哥，在一家为雇主提供工人援助计划的公司工作，他认为他还不如保留这两家公司。他表示，游戏驿站刚刚任命了几位新高管，这可能有助于为公司注入新的活力，一旦更多人开始走出家门，AMC可能会出现反弹。</blockquote></p><p>“If I didn’t like GameStop or AMC,” Mr. Davitt said, “I wouldn’t be finding this as enjoyable.”</p><p><blockquote>“如果我不喜欢游戏驿站或AMC，”戴维特先生说，“我就不会觉得这很有趣。”</blockquote></p><p><b>Another on the Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>另一个在线上</b></blockquote></p><p>By almost any measure, Mr. Daumer, the Indiana teenager, is one of the winners of the GameStop trade. He more than doubled his money, even if he didn’t score the biggest possible payday.</p><p><blockquote>几乎以任何标准衡量，印第安纳州少年道默先生都是游戏驿站交易的赢家之一。他的钱增加了一倍多，即使他没有获得最大可能的发薪日。</blockquote></p><p>“Do you fish?” he asked, searching for a way to explain the experience.</p><p><blockquote>“你钓鱼吗？”他问道，寻找一种方法来解释这段经历。</blockquote></p><p>When you’re fishing, he said, and you feel a tug on your line, it might be just a nibble or it might be a bite. If you wait to feel a stronger tug, you risk losing the fish you didn’t know you had.</p><p><blockquote>他说，当你钓鱼时，你感觉到鱼线被拉扯，可能只是轻轻一咬，也可能是一口。如果你等着感受到更强的拉力，你就有可能失去你不知道拥有的鱼。</blockquote></p><p>The peak, he said, was that kind of moment. He thought it was just a small nibble, and decided to wait.</p><p><blockquote>他说，巅峰就是这样的时刻。他认为这只是一小口，并决定等待。</blockquote></p><p>“The fish got away,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“鱼跑了，”他说。</blockquote></p><p>But there are others out there to be hooked, he said. He’s already dabbling in shares of a penny stock, Castor Maritime, which is based in Cyprus. It’s up over 300 percent so far this year.</p><p><blockquote>但他说，还有其他人会被迷住。他已经涉足了总部位于塞浦路斯的细价股Castor Maritime的股票。今年到目前为止，它已经上涨了300%以上。</blockquote></p><p>What kind of business is the company in?</p><p><blockquote>公司是做什么生意的？</blockquote></p><p>“You know what? I wish I could tell you,” Mr. Daumer said. “I just like the numbers.”</p><p><blockquote>“你知道吗？我希望我能告诉你，”道默先生说。“我就是喜欢这些数字。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/07/business/gamestop-stock-losses.html\">The New York Times</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/07/business/gamestop-stock-losses.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152031988","content_text":"Fueled by amateur traders and online enthusiasm, the struggling retailer’s shares took investors on a ride like no other. For them, it ended in different ways, including apathy, defiance and regret.Jacob Chalfant, a high school senior from Westfield, N.J., is still holding the shares he bought for $1,035. On Friday, they were worth $220.Credit...Bryan Anselm for The New York TimesSome wanted to be on the front lines of a revolution. Some wanted to be rich. And by the end of a wild two-week ride where fortunes were made and lost, some just hoped they’d be able to pay their rent.Winners and losers are made every day on Wall Street. And for a while, the unlikely trading boom around the stock of the beleaguered video game retailerGameStopput the little guy on top. Breathtaking fortunes appeared overnight.But they disappeared almost as quickly.At its highest point,GameStop’s share price was $483. On Friday, the stock was worth $40.59. The trading frenzy — powered by online hype over a rebellion against traditional Wall Street powers — had created, and then destroyed, roughly $30 billion in on-paper wealth.Many small-time investors who got caught up in the mania as it peaked lost big. Timing a trade perfectly is nearly impossible even for the best stock pickers, so even those who made money missed out on far greater riches if they didn’t sell at the rally’s peak.Whether they set out to make a mint or make a point, these traders rode the GameStop wave up — and down.Shawn Daumer, 19, near his office in Crown Point, Ind. He said he sold his GameStop shares last week and walked away with more than $65,000 in profit.Credit...Evan Jenkins for The New York TimesMoney on the TableWhat do you do when you’re 19 and suddenly holding a quarter-million dollars in stock? Shawn Daumer went to Hooters.Armed with money partly from high school graduation gifts and winnings from trades on stocks like Tesla, Mr. Daumer had spent about $47,000on shares of GameStop the week before it went through the roof.It was Jan. 26 — just two days into GameStop’s big week— when he and his brother hit up Hooters, scarfed down 30 wings and got 10 more to go. Two days later, GameStop hit its intraday peak of $483 and Mr. Daumer, a real estate broker in Valparaiso, Ind., was holding 1,233 shares. He was up more than a half-million dollars on his initial investment.Mr. Daumer traced his interest in GameStop to the same place many others did: Reddit’s WallStreetBets forum, where armchair traders gather for raunchy jokes, tales of success and even to brag about enormous losses.Understand What Happened With GameStopShares in GameStop, the video retailer,have crashed from their January highs, which were driven by memes on social media.Amateur traders egging on one another on Redditbet heavily on shares of the company in January, sending the price up more than 1,700 percent at one point.The wave was in part aimed athurting large hedge funds that had been short selling — betting against — GameStop stock. Some of those fundsexperienced huge losses as a result.But many of the individual investors who pumped up the stock could lose huge amounts of money, too. Somebelieve the price will go back up and are refusing to sell, even as the share price has collapsed.Now, regulators are looking into how the rally started and whethernew rules should be created because of it.“Really the biggest part is once you see everybody buying shares day after day, and seeing it live on your own screen, and watching it go up,” Mr. Daumer said in the midst of GameStop’s surge. “It’s follow the trend, you know? If that’s the trend, follow it and it makes you money.”But GameStop’s stock abruptly turned down when the trading app Robinhood and other brokerage firms announced a slew of restrictions on the trading of a handful of stocks that had been spiking. Mr. Daumer had about $200,000 in potential profits evaporate almost immediately.“I’m still up 500 percent,” he said at the time. “I’m OK.” Besides, Mr. Daumer and his fellow Redditors believed GameStop would soar once more: “We’re going to $1,000,” he said.They never came close.Last week,as the stock plunged 72 percent in two days, he’d had enough. Mr. Daumer put in an order to sell on Tuesday afternoon, and the order was filled Wednesday morning at a price of $91.22.He walked away with more than $65,000 in profit, more than doubling his investment.Not everyone was so lucky.A Rude AwakeningNora Samir held her GameStop shares too long and lost more than half of what she invested.Credit...David Maurice Smith for The New York TimesIt seemed like a dream to Nora Samir.She woke up in the middle of the night of Jan. 27 at her home in Sydney. On the other side of the world, GameStop was soaring.The $735 she’d put in the day before had doubled. She raced downstairs to tell her mother, who was sleeping.“Nora, don’t be greedy,” her mother warned. “You need to take it out.”But Ms. Samir, 24, a child-health researcher at the University of New South Wales and a stock market neophyte,didn’t sell — she bought.After investing about $800 more, she owned just over nine shares of GameStop. She later plowed $1,800 into BlackBerry, the cellphone maker that once dominated mobile email and hadbeen swept up in the frenzy.“I was on a high,” she admitted. “When the stock is going up, you don’t think of how low it can go.”The high didn’t last long — and the fall was made worse when her trading app crashed, leaving her with little choice but to hold on while GameStop shares plunged.She managed to sell one share on the way down, for $134. The shares she still owned on Friday were worth $528. She’s lost more than half what she put into GameStop.The lesson, Ms. Samir said: “Don’t be greedy.”You Only Live OnceJacob Chalfant, a high school senior from Westfield, N.J., enjoyed how his “diamond hands” were putting the squeeze on Wall Street’s hedge funds.A poster on WallStreetBets since he was 15, Mr. Chalfant, now 18, relished the GameStop rally for the pressure it put on firms like Melvin Capital, which had bet that GameStop’s shares would fall.In the parlance of Reddit, Mr. Chalfant’s diamond-hard hands won’t fold, unlike the “paper hands” of sellers. He’s still holding the shares he bought for $1,035 — about a month’s wages from his job at a pizza shop and his freelance photography business — when GameStop was trading at $290. On Friday, his investment was worth $220.“I’ve come to terms with the fact that I’ve already lost the money,” he said. “Realistically, the stock is not going to go where it was before.”But the losses are an investment, too, Mr. Chalfant said. They’ve earned him “internet points” on WallStreetBets. “If you’re saying, ‘I’m still holding,’ you have more clout than if you didn’t,” he said.(Many on the WallStreetBets forum insist that GameStop’s shares may surge again. On the other hand, another Reddit forum opened last week where users share tales of losses from trading the stock whose ticker symbol is GME: GMEbagholdersclub.)Mr. Chalfant said he and other teenage traders enjoy the gamification of the investing, and many of his friends had gotten in on GameStop just because they thought it was funny, not to make money.“We’re living in a system where there’s no such thing as justice anymore and the entire world is falling apart,” Mr. Chalfant said. “Nothing really matters, so we might as well try to have fun while we’re here.”Collateral DamageTerrell Jones didn’t need to invest in GameStop to lose money off the frenzy.Mr. Jones, a college student from Kenosha, Wis., bought $300 in shares of AMC, the movie theater chain whose stock was also swept up in the attempt to squeeze the short sellers who profit as stocks decline.“I just got caught up in the social media hype and just dove right into it,” he said. “I fell for it.”When AMC started to fall and he had lost $112, Mr. Jones, 24, panicked.“I just had to get out of there as soon as possible,” he said. “It’s a lot of money, we’re in the middle of a pandemic and I have rent that needs to be paid.”Mr. Jones, 24, had never invested in the stock market before. Now, though, he feels that he learned a lesson.“I realized pretty quick that people like me were up against those billionaires,” he said. “And at the end of the day, those people always find a way to win.”Losing His Head“This is money I have already written off,” said C. Arthur Davitt, who lives in Chicago.Credit...Lyndon French for The New York TimesOrdinarily, C. Arthur Davitt is a model of financial discipline.He automatically sweeps $200 a month into an index fund, saves enough to get a company match on his 401(k) and has been aggressively paying down his $35,000 in graduate school debt.But Mr. Davitt, 29, thought it might be fun to get in on some of the skyrocketing stocks. He put less than $1,500 in GameStop and AMC — the GameStop portion is now down by nearly half, and his stake in AMC lost more than 20 percent.“I am not a gambler by nature,” he said, “and this is money I have already written off.”Mr. Davitt, who lives in Chicago and works for a company that provides worker assistance programs for employers, figures he might as well hold on to both companies. GameStop just named several new executives, which could help inject new life into the company, he said, and AMC could see a bounce once more people start venturing out of their homes.“If I didn’t like GameStop or AMC,” Mr. Davitt said, “I wouldn’t be finding this as enjoyable.”Another on the LineBy almost any measure, Mr. Daumer, the Indiana teenager, is one of the winners of the GameStop trade. He more than doubled his money, even if he didn’t score the biggest possible payday.“Do you fish?” he asked, searching for a way to explain the experience.When you’re fishing, he said, and you feel a tug on your line, it might be just a nibble or it might be a bite. If you wait to feel a stronger tug, you risk losing the fish you didn’t know you had.The peak, he said, was that kind of moment. He thought it was just a small nibble, and decided to wait.“The fish got away,” he said.But there are others out there to be hooked, he said. He’s already dabbling in shares of a penny stock, Castor Maritime, which is based in Cyprus. It’s up over 300 percent so far this year.What kind of business is the company in?“You know what? I wish I could tell you,” Mr. Daumer said. “I just like the numbers.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":824,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":369015653,"gmtCreate":1613988023472,"gmtModify":1634551648852,"author":{"id":"3555027716709439","authorId":"3555027716709439","name":"RLST","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b7bffaca05b5c5fc2858ada8443840","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555027716709439","idStr":"3555027716709439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting","listText":"Interesting","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/369015653","repostId":"1153806804","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":581,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":369012890,"gmtCreate":1613987988810,"gmtModify":1634551649315,"author":{"id":"3555027716709439","authorId":"3555027716709439","name":"RLST","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b7bffaca05b5c5fc2858ada8443840","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555027716709439","idStr":"3555027716709439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/369012890","repostId":"1106666176","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":509,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382653162,"gmtCreate":1613444391956,"gmtModify":1634553660743,"author":{"id":"3555027716709439","authorId":"3555027716709439","name":"RLST","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b7bffaca05b5c5fc2858ada8443840","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555027716709439","idStr":"3555027716709439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting read&nbsp;","listText":"Interesting read&nbsp;","text":"Interesting read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382653162","repostId":"1114634078","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":579,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382659796,"gmtCreate":1613444369015,"gmtModify":1634553661110,"author":{"id":"3555027716709439","authorId":"3555027716709439","name":"RLST","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b7bffaca05b5c5fc2858ada8443840","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555027716709439","idStr":"3555027716709439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmmmm&nbsp;","listText":"Hmmmm&nbsp;","text":"Hmmmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382659796","repostId":"1170147354","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":458,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382315419,"gmtCreate":1613362581031,"gmtModify":1634553855277,"author":{"id":"3555027716709439","authorId":"3555027716709439","name":"RLST","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b7bffaca05b5c5fc2858ada8443840","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555027716709439","idStr":"3555027716709439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Keep","listText":"Keep","text":"Keep","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382315419","repostId":"2110044852","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":344,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":388962847,"gmtCreate":1613011779789,"gmtModify":1703768356132,"author":{"id":"3555027716709439","authorId":"3555027716709439","name":"RLST","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b7bffaca05b5c5fc2858ada8443840","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555027716709439","idStr":"3555027716709439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/388962847","repostId":"2110049692","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":617,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":389560569,"gmtCreate":1612788676451,"gmtModify":1703765010686,"author":{"id":"3555027716709439","authorId":"3555027716709439","name":"RLST","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b7bffaca05b5c5fc2858ada8443840","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555027716709439","idStr":"3555027716709439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"True&nbsp;","listText":"True&nbsp;","text":"True","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389560569","repostId":"1195153829","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195153829","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612781502,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195153829?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-08 18:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here’s What the GameStop Affair Has Taught Us<blockquote>以下是游戏驿站事件教给我们的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195153829","media":"Barrons","summary":"This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers","content":"<p><i>This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers and has been edited by Barron’s.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>这篇评论最近由基金经理、研究公司和市场时事通讯作者发表，并由《巴伦周刊》编辑。</i></blockquote></p><p> What GameStop Taught Us</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站教给我们的</blockquote></p><p> <i>The Weekly Speculator</i></p><p><blockquote><i>每周投机者</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Marketfield Asset Management</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Marketfield资产管理</i></blockquote></p><p> marketfield.com</p><p><blockquote>marketfield.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 4: After all is said and done, one of the most lasting effects of theGameStop(ticker: GME) episode will be to educate many market participants about the key role and ultimate power held by the clearing institution, the Depository Trust Company. One of the stranger aspects of the affair has been the attempt to paint it as some form of moral crusade, or an opportunity for the “little guy” to get even with Wall Street. The truth is that some large investors lost a great deal of money, while others were well rewarded, just as some small investors will have reaped life-changing sums while others will have lost funds that may prove to be equally impactful. In this sense, the market is a meritocracy, which isn’t quite the same as saying that it is always fair in delivering outcomes.</p><p><blockquote>2月4日：总而言之，GameStop（股票代码：GME）事件最持久的影响之一将是让许多市场参与者了解清算机构（存托信托公司）所扮演的关键角色和最终权力。这件事更奇怪的一面是，有人试图将其描绘成某种形式的道德讨伐，或者是“小人物”报复华尔街的机会。事实是，一些大投资者损失了大量资金，而另一些投资者则获得了丰厚的回报，就像一些小投资者将获得改变生活的资金，而另一些投资者将损失可能同样具有影响力的资金一样。从这个意义上说，市场是一个精英统治，这并不等同于说它在提供结果方面总是公平的。</blockquote></p><p> What is also clear is that late January saw a very significant degrossing of levered hedge-fund investors, without causing a deep correction in the equity market. The S&amp;P 500 essentially respected support at the 50-day moving average, and didn’t need to move down to 3600, which we had set as a “worst case” target. The Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, and MSCI Emerging Markets Index didn’t need to touch their corresponding trend support, and all three indexes managed to generate a positive return in January, unlike the S&amp;P 500, which registered a small loss. The subsequent bounce has been rapid and broad, as would be expected from a catalyst that was both technical and ephemeral in nature.</p><p><blockquote>同样清楚的是，1月下旬，杠杆对冲基金投资者的资金大幅减少，但并未导致股市大幅调整。标普500基本上尊重50日均线的支撑，不需要跌至我们设定的“最坏情况”目标3600点。纳斯达克100指数、Russell 2000指数和MSCI新兴市场指数不需要触及相应的趋势支撑，这三个指数在1月份都成功产生了正回报，不像标普500出现了小幅亏损。随后的反弹迅速而广泛，正如技术性和短暂性催化剂所预期的那样。</blockquote></p><p> That it is not a wholly positive or inconsequential affair. The long bull market is now showing signs of developing into a historic mania. This doesn’t mean that a market peak is imminent, but the normative process—whereby what is “appropriate” is ultimately influenced by extremes—means that the levels of risk being taken by the average investor are probably significantly higher than they were pre-Covid.</p><p><blockquote>这不是一件完全积极或无关紧要的事情。漫长的牛市现在有发展成历史性狂热的迹象。这并不意味着市场峰值即将到来，但规范过程——什么是“适当的”最终会受到极端情况的影响——意味着普通投资者承担的风险水平可能明显高于Covid之前。</blockquote></p><p> —Michael Shaoul, Timothy Brackett</p><p><blockquote>——迈克尔·绍尔、蒂莫西·布莱凯特</blockquote></p><p> Heigh-Ho Silver!</p><p><blockquote>嗨-嗬银！</blockquote></p><p> <i>The Aden Forecast Weekly Update</i></p><p><blockquote><i>亚丁天气预报每周更新</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>The Aden Forecast</i></p><p><blockquote><i>亚丁天气预报</i></blockquote></p><p> adenforecast.com</p><p><blockquote>adenforecast.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 4: Silver caught on fire by zipping up to the August highs near $30 on Monday during the Reddit buying frenzy. Silver was strong anyway, and it’s been holding up well, so whoever pegged silver knew what they were doing. Silver shares also got a big boost upward, and while they have since calmed down, it looks like volatility will stay with us. Silver has been holding above its 15-week moving average since December, and it’ll remain strong by staying above it at $25. The next milestone to surpass is the $30 level, the highs for this bull market. If clearly broken, another leg up will be underway. Keep your silver and silver share positions.</p><p><blockquote>2月4日：周一，在Reddit的购买狂潮中，白银飙升至接近30美元的8月份高点。无论如何，白银都很坚挺，而且一直保持良好，所以无论谁盯住白银，都知道他们在做什么。白银股也大幅上涨，虽然此后有所平静，但波动性似乎仍将持续。自12月以来，白银一直保持在15周移动平均线上方，并将保持在25美元上方。下一个要超越的里程碑是30美元水平，这是本轮牛市的高点。如果明显被打破，另一条腿将会上升。保持你的白银和白银份额头寸。</blockquote></p><p> —Mary Anne and Pamela Aden</p><p><blockquote>——玛丽·安妮和帕梅拉·亚丁</blockquote></p><p> How to Play Oil’s Recent Rally</p><p><blockquote>如何玩转石油近期的反弹</blockquote></p><p> <i>Daily Insights</i></p><p><blockquote><i>每日洞察</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>BCA Research</i></p><p><blockquote><i>BCA研究</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>bcaresearch.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>bcaresearch.com</i></blockquote></p><p> Feb 4: The recent oil rally will have consequences for asset prices beyond the energy market. While higher oil prices benefit oil exporters, they hurt the economies of oil importers, often with a lag.</p><p><blockquote>2月4日：最近的油价上涨将对能源市场以外的资产价格产生影响。虽然油价上涨有利于石油出口国，但也损害了石油进口国的经济，而且往往有滞后性。</blockquote></p><p> A great example of these dynamics is China. The Chinese economy is a large oil importer; hence, rising oil prices act as a tax on Chinese growth. Moreover, Chinese A shares massively overweight tech stocks, which receive no benefit from higher energy prices. In fact, over the past four years, increasing Brent prices reliably lead to a decline in on-shore domestic markets by roughly three months. The current setup is reminiscent of early 2018. Back then, Chinese A shares had been rallying for a few months after oil prices had started to rally. Ultimately, a deceleration in Chinese growth and cautious policy making from Beijing resulted in a powerful selloff of Chinese equities. Today, Chinese growth is once again decelerating and Beijing is conducting some significant regulatory tightening, while the People’s Bank of China is draining liquidity. Thus, a significant correction in Chinese shares is likely this spring.</p><p><blockquote>这些动态的一个很好的例子是中国。中国经济是石油进口大国；因此，油价上涨是对中国经济增长的一种征税。此外，中国A股大量持有跑赢大盘科技股，这些股没有从能源价格上涨中受益。事实上，在过去四年中，布伦特原油价格上涨确实会导致国内市场在岸价格下跌约三个月。目前的设置让人想起2018年初。当时，在油价开始上涨后，中国A股已经上涨了几个月。最终，中国经济增长放缓和北京谨慎的政策制定导致了中国股市的大幅抛售。如今，中国经济增长再次减速，北京正在进行一些重大监管收紧，而中国人民银行正在抽干流动性。因此，今年春天中国股市可能会出现大幅调整。</blockquote></p><p> A lower-octane strategy to play these dynamics is to go long United Kingdom equities relative to Germany’s while espousing the implicit currency exposure. German equities are extremely underweight energy, and Germany imports its entire oil consumption. Meanwhile, the U.K. benchmark is replete with energy stocks and the U.K. remains an oil producer, even if it imports some of its oil (rising Brent represents a comparatively smaller tax on the U.K. economy). As a side benefit, the pound is very cheap against the euro and the U.K.’s vaccination campaign is massively ahead of the eurozone’s, which could result in earlier economic dividends north of the Channel and hurt the euro/pound in the process.</p><p><blockquote>利用这些动态的低辛烷值策略是相对于德国股市做多英国股市，同时支持隐性货币敞口。德国股票非常跑输大盘能源，德国的石油消费全部进口。与此同时，英国基准充满了能源股，英国仍然是石油生产国，即使它进口部分石油（布伦特原油价格上涨对英国经济的税收相对较小）。作为一个附带好处，英镑兑欧元非常便宜，而且英国的疫苗接种活动远远领先于欧元区，这可能会导致英吉利海峡以北更早的经济红利，并在此过程中损害欧元/英镑。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> —Mathieu Savary and Team</p><p><blockquote>——Mathieu Savary和团队</blockquote></p><p> High-Yield Opportunities</p><p><blockquote>高收益机会</blockquote></p><p> <i>Carret Credit Insight</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Carret信用洞察</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Carret Asset Mangaement</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Carret资产管理</i></blockquote></p><p> carret.com</p><p><blockquote>carret.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 3: At year-end 2020, the iBoxx High-Yield Index yielded 4.23%, an all-time low. Spreads also registered record tightness. Low yields aren’t a surprise as investors globally reach for income. The Federal Reserve has backstopped the “fallen angels,” allowing many high-yield (HY) companies to refinance at ever-lower rates and extend upcoming maturities for another day. Strong equity markets are forecasting an earnings rebound, and the vaccines will bring brighter days soon. We continue to find attractive values in the short/intermediate portion of the high-quality HY market.</p><p><blockquote>2月3日：2020年底，iBoxx高收益指数收益率为4.23%，创历史新低。利差也创下历史新高。随着全球投资者寻求收入，低收益率并不令人意外。美联储支持“堕落天使”，允许许多高收益（HY）公司以更低的利率进行再融资，并将即将到期的期限延长一天。强劲的股市预测盈利将反弹，疫苗将很快带来光明的日子。我们继续在高质量HY市场的短期/中期部分发现有吸引力的价值。</blockquote></p><p> We want to share a recent academic study with you regarding the risk and returns in the HY bond market: George Mason Universityrecently publisheda report on HY bond-fund returns and volatility relative to equities (S&amp;P 500). Since 1990, the average HY bond fund has delivered average annualized returns of 7.1% with a volatility of 7.7%. Over the same time period, the S&amp;P 500 delivered an average annualized return of 7.8%, but with almost double the volatility of 14.5%. The conclusion: HY bonds have paid total returns near those of the U.S. stock market with half of the volatility. We believe the HY market will offer competitive returns in the decade ahead, as equity valuations have risen and Treasury yields have plummeted. Our ability to utilize busted convertibles, preferreds, and special-situation income investments enhances our cash-flow opportunities.</p><p><blockquote>我们想与您分享一项关于HY债券市场风险和回报的最新学术研究：George Mason University最近发布了一份关于HY债券基金回报和相对于股票波动性的报告（标普500）。自1990年以来，HY债券基金的平均年化回报率为7.1%，波动率为7.7%。同期，标普500的平均年化回报率为7.8%，但波动性几乎是14.5%的两倍。结论是：HY债券的总回报接近美国股市，而波动性只有美国股市的一半。我们相信，随着股票估值上升和国债收益率暴跌，HY市场将在未来十年提供有竞争力的回报。我们利用破产的可转换债券、优先股和特殊情况收入投资的能力增强了我们的现金流机会。</blockquote></p><p> —Jason R. Graybill, Neil D. Klein</p><p><blockquote>——杰森·R·格雷比尔、尼尔·D·克莱因</blockquote></p><p> Emerging Markets Blast Off</p><p><blockquote>新兴市场起飞</blockquote></p><p> <i>PCM Report</i></p><p><blockquote><i>PCM报告</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Peak Capital Management</i></p><p><blockquote><i>匹克资本管理</i></blockquote></p><p> pcmstrategies.com</p><p><blockquote>pcmstrategies.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 1: So far, 2021 has been a good year for emerging-market equities. Year to date, theiShares MSCI Emerging Marketsexchange-traded fund (EEM) is higher by roughly 8%, compared to a gain of approximately 3% for theSPDR S&amp;P 500ETF (SPY). Ever since the financial crisis of 2008, emerging markets collectively have woefully lagged U.S. equities.</p><p><blockquote>2月1日：到目前为止，2021年对新兴市场股市来说是好年景。今年迄今为止，iShares MSCI新兴市场交易所交易基金(EEM)上涨了约8%，而SPDR S&amp;P 500ETF（SPDR标普500指数ETF）的涨幅约为3%。自2008年金融危机以来，新兴市场整体表现严重落后于美国股市。</blockquote></p><p> What could propel the asset class higher in 20201 and beyond? In the long term, the likely catalyst is demographics. Developed markets such as the U.S. and Europe have aging populations, which could suggest lower productivity and gross-domestic-product growth over the next decade compared to emerging-market economies.</p><p><blockquote>什么可以推动该资产类别在20201年及以后走高？从长远来看，可能的催化剂是人口统计。美国和欧洲等发达市场人口老龄化，这可能意味着与新兴市场经济体相比，未来十年的生产率和国内生产总值增长可能会较低。</blockquote></p><p> In its most recent capital-markets report, JPMorgan projected GDP growth across emerging markets to be 3.9% in 2021, compared to 1.6% across developed markets. The report suggests China and India will drive GDP growth, and emerging markets’ productivity and human capital will gradually converge to developed-market levels.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通在其最新的资本市场报告中预计，2021年新兴市场的GDP增长率为3.9%，而发达市场为1.6%。报告显示，中国和印度将推动GDP增长，新兴市场的生产率和人力资本将逐渐向发达市场水平趋同。</blockquote></p><p> —Clint Pekrul</p><p><blockquote>-克林特·佩克鲁尔</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here’s What the GameStop Affair Has Taught Us<blockquote>以下是游戏驿站事件教给我们的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere’s What the GameStop Affair Has Taught Us<blockquote>以下是游戏驿站事件教给我们的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-08 18:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i>This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers and has been edited by Barron’s.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>这篇评论最近由基金经理、研究公司和市场时事通讯作者发表，并由《巴伦周刊》编辑。</i></blockquote></p><p> What GameStop Taught Us</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站教给我们的</blockquote></p><p> <i>The Weekly Speculator</i></p><p><blockquote><i>每周投机者</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Marketfield Asset Management</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Marketfield资产管理</i></blockquote></p><p> marketfield.com</p><p><blockquote>marketfield.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 4: After all is said and done, one of the most lasting effects of theGameStop(ticker: GME) episode will be to educate many market participants about the key role and ultimate power held by the clearing institution, the Depository Trust Company. One of the stranger aspects of the affair has been the attempt to paint it as some form of moral crusade, or an opportunity for the “little guy” to get even with Wall Street. The truth is that some large investors lost a great deal of money, while others were well rewarded, just as some small investors will have reaped life-changing sums while others will have lost funds that may prove to be equally impactful. In this sense, the market is a meritocracy, which isn’t quite the same as saying that it is always fair in delivering outcomes.</p><p><blockquote>2月4日：总而言之，GameStop（股票代码：GME）事件最持久的影响之一将是让许多市场参与者了解清算机构（存托信托公司）所扮演的关键角色和最终权力。这件事更奇怪的一面是，有人试图将其描绘成某种形式的道德讨伐，或者是“小人物”报复华尔街的机会。事实是，一些大投资者损失了大量资金，而另一些投资者则获得了丰厚的回报，就像一些小投资者将获得改变生活的资金，而另一些投资者将损失可能同样具有影响力的资金一样。从这个意义上说，市场是一个精英统治，这并不等同于说它在提供结果方面总是公平的。</blockquote></p><p> What is also clear is that late January saw a very significant degrossing of levered hedge-fund investors, without causing a deep correction in the equity market. The S&amp;P 500 essentially respected support at the 50-day moving average, and didn’t need to move down to 3600, which we had set as a “worst case” target. The Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, and MSCI Emerging Markets Index didn’t need to touch their corresponding trend support, and all three indexes managed to generate a positive return in January, unlike the S&amp;P 500, which registered a small loss. The subsequent bounce has been rapid and broad, as would be expected from a catalyst that was both technical and ephemeral in nature.</p><p><blockquote>同样清楚的是，1月下旬，杠杆对冲基金投资者的资金大幅减少，但并未导致股市大幅调整。标普500基本上尊重50日均线的支撑，不需要跌至我们设定的“最坏情况”目标3600点。纳斯达克100指数、Russell 2000指数和MSCI新兴市场指数不需要触及相应的趋势支撑，这三个指数在1月份都成功产生了正回报，不像标普500出现了小幅亏损。随后的反弹迅速而广泛，正如技术性和短暂性催化剂所预期的那样。</blockquote></p><p> That it is not a wholly positive or inconsequential affair. The long bull market is now showing signs of developing into a historic mania. This doesn’t mean that a market peak is imminent, but the normative process—whereby what is “appropriate” is ultimately influenced by extremes—means that the levels of risk being taken by the average investor are probably significantly higher than they were pre-Covid.</p><p><blockquote>这不是一件完全积极或无关紧要的事情。漫长的牛市现在有发展成历史性狂热的迹象。这并不意味着市场峰值即将到来，但规范过程——什么是“适当的”最终会受到极端情况的影响——意味着普通投资者承担的风险水平可能明显高于Covid之前。</blockquote></p><p> —Michael Shaoul, Timothy Brackett</p><p><blockquote>——迈克尔·绍尔、蒂莫西·布莱凯特</blockquote></p><p> Heigh-Ho Silver!</p><p><blockquote>嗨-嗬银！</blockquote></p><p> <i>The Aden Forecast Weekly Update</i></p><p><blockquote><i>亚丁天气预报每周更新</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>The Aden Forecast</i></p><p><blockquote><i>亚丁天气预报</i></blockquote></p><p> adenforecast.com</p><p><blockquote>adenforecast.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 4: Silver caught on fire by zipping up to the August highs near $30 on Monday during the Reddit buying frenzy. Silver was strong anyway, and it’s been holding up well, so whoever pegged silver knew what they were doing. Silver shares also got a big boost upward, and while they have since calmed down, it looks like volatility will stay with us. Silver has been holding above its 15-week moving average since December, and it’ll remain strong by staying above it at $25. The next milestone to surpass is the $30 level, the highs for this bull market. If clearly broken, another leg up will be underway. Keep your silver and silver share positions.</p><p><blockquote>2月4日：周一，在Reddit的购买狂潮中，白银飙升至接近30美元的8月份高点。无论如何，白银都很坚挺，而且一直保持良好，所以无论谁盯住白银，都知道他们在做什么。白银股也大幅上涨，虽然此后有所平静，但波动性似乎仍将持续。自12月以来，白银一直保持在15周移动平均线上方，并将保持在25美元上方。下一个要超越的里程碑是30美元水平，这是本轮牛市的高点。如果明显被打破，另一条腿将会上升。保持你的白银和白银份额头寸。</blockquote></p><p> —Mary Anne and Pamela Aden</p><p><blockquote>——玛丽·安妮和帕梅拉·亚丁</blockquote></p><p> How to Play Oil’s Recent Rally</p><p><blockquote>如何玩转石油近期的反弹</blockquote></p><p> <i>Daily Insights</i></p><p><blockquote><i>每日洞察</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>BCA Research</i></p><p><blockquote><i>BCA研究</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>bcaresearch.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>bcaresearch.com</i></blockquote></p><p> Feb 4: The recent oil rally will have consequences for asset prices beyond the energy market. While higher oil prices benefit oil exporters, they hurt the economies of oil importers, often with a lag.</p><p><blockquote>2月4日：最近的油价上涨将对能源市场以外的资产价格产生影响。虽然油价上涨有利于石油出口国，但也损害了石油进口国的经济，而且往往有滞后性。</blockquote></p><p> A great example of these dynamics is China. The Chinese economy is a large oil importer; hence, rising oil prices act as a tax on Chinese growth. Moreover, Chinese A shares massively overweight tech stocks, which receive no benefit from higher energy prices. In fact, over the past four years, increasing Brent prices reliably lead to a decline in on-shore domestic markets by roughly three months. The current setup is reminiscent of early 2018. Back then, Chinese A shares had been rallying for a few months after oil prices had started to rally. Ultimately, a deceleration in Chinese growth and cautious policy making from Beijing resulted in a powerful selloff of Chinese equities. Today, Chinese growth is once again decelerating and Beijing is conducting some significant regulatory tightening, while the People’s Bank of China is draining liquidity. Thus, a significant correction in Chinese shares is likely this spring.</p><p><blockquote>这些动态的一个很好的例子是中国。中国经济是石油进口大国；因此，油价上涨是对中国经济增长的一种征税。此外，中国A股大量持有跑赢大盘科技股，这些股没有从能源价格上涨中受益。事实上，在过去四年中，布伦特原油价格上涨确实会导致国内市场在岸价格下跌约三个月。目前的设置让人想起2018年初。当时，在油价开始上涨后，中国A股已经上涨了几个月。最终，中国经济增长放缓和北京谨慎的政策制定导致了中国股市的大幅抛售。如今，中国经济增长再次减速，北京正在进行一些重大监管收紧，而中国人民银行正在抽干流动性。因此，今年春天中国股市可能会出现大幅调整。</blockquote></p><p> A lower-octane strategy to play these dynamics is to go long United Kingdom equities relative to Germany’s while espousing the implicit currency exposure. German equities are extremely underweight energy, and Germany imports its entire oil consumption. Meanwhile, the U.K. benchmark is replete with energy stocks and the U.K. remains an oil producer, even if it imports some of its oil (rising Brent represents a comparatively smaller tax on the U.K. economy). As a side benefit, the pound is very cheap against the euro and the U.K.’s vaccination campaign is massively ahead of the eurozone’s, which could result in earlier economic dividends north of the Channel and hurt the euro/pound in the process.</p><p><blockquote>利用这些动态的低辛烷值策略是相对于德国股市做多英国股市，同时支持隐性货币敞口。德国股票非常跑输大盘能源，德国的石油消费全部进口。与此同时，英国基准充满了能源股，英国仍然是石油生产国，即使它进口部分石油（布伦特原油价格上涨对英国经济的税收相对较小）。作为一个附带好处，英镑兑欧元非常便宜，而且英国的疫苗接种活动远远领先于欧元区，这可能会导致英吉利海峡以北更早的经济红利，并在此过程中损害欧元/英镑。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> —Mathieu Savary and Team</p><p><blockquote>——Mathieu Savary和团队</blockquote></p><p> High-Yield Opportunities</p><p><blockquote>高收益机会</blockquote></p><p> <i>Carret Credit Insight</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Carret信用洞察</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Carret Asset Mangaement</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Carret资产管理</i></blockquote></p><p> carret.com</p><p><blockquote>carret.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 3: At year-end 2020, the iBoxx High-Yield Index yielded 4.23%, an all-time low. Spreads also registered record tightness. Low yields aren’t a surprise as investors globally reach for income. The Federal Reserve has backstopped the “fallen angels,” allowing many high-yield (HY) companies to refinance at ever-lower rates and extend upcoming maturities for another day. Strong equity markets are forecasting an earnings rebound, and the vaccines will bring brighter days soon. We continue to find attractive values in the short/intermediate portion of the high-quality HY market.</p><p><blockquote>2月3日：2020年底，iBoxx高收益指数收益率为4.23%，创历史新低。利差也创下历史新高。随着全球投资者寻求收入，低收益率并不令人意外。美联储支持“堕落天使”，允许许多高收益（HY）公司以更低的利率进行再融资，并将即将到期的期限延长一天。强劲的股市预测盈利将反弹，疫苗将很快带来光明的日子。我们继续在高质量HY市场的短期/中期部分发现有吸引力的价值。</blockquote></p><p> We want to share a recent academic study with you regarding the risk and returns in the HY bond market: George Mason Universityrecently publisheda report on HY bond-fund returns and volatility relative to equities (S&amp;P 500). Since 1990, the average HY bond fund has delivered average annualized returns of 7.1% with a volatility of 7.7%. Over the same time period, the S&amp;P 500 delivered an average annualized return of 7.8%, but with almost double the volatility of 14.5%. The conclusion: HY bonds have paid total returns near those of the U.S. stock market with half of the volatility. We believe the HY market will offer competitive returns in the decade ahead, as equity valuations have risen and Treasury yields have plummeted. Our ability to utilize busted convertibles, preferreds, and special-situation income investments enhances our cash-flow opportunities.</p><p><blockquote>我们想与您分享一项关于HY债券市场风险和回报的最新学术研究：George Mason University最近发布了一份关于HY债券基金回报和相对于股票波动性的报告（标普500）。自1990年以来，HY债券基金的平均年化回报率为7.1%，波动率为7.7%。同期，标普500的平均年化回报率为7.8%，但波动性几乎是14.5%的两倍。结论是：HY债券的总回报接近美国股市，而波动性只有美国股市的一半。我们相信，随着股票估值上升和国债收益率暴跌，HY市场将在未来十年提供有竞争力的回报。我们利用破产的可转换债券、优先股和特殊情况收入投资的能力增强了我们的现金流机会。</blockquote></p><p> —Jason R. Graybill, Neil D. Klein</p><p><blockquote>——杰森·R·格雷比尔、尼尔·D·克莱因</blockquote></p><p> Emerging Markets Blast Off</p><p><blockquote>新兴市场起飞</blockquote></p><p> <i>PCM Report</i></p><p><blockquote><i>PCM报告</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Peak Capital Management</i></p><p><blockquote><i>匹克资本管理</i></blockquote></p><p> pcmstrategies.com</p><p><blockquote>pcmstrategies.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 1: So far, 2021 has been a good year for emerging-market equities. Year to date, theiShares MSCI Emerging Marketsexchange-traded fund (EEM) is higher by roughly 8%, compared to a gain of approximately 3% for theSPDR S&amp;P 500ETF (SPY). Ever since the financial crisis of 2008, emerging markets collectively have woefully lagged U.S. equities.</p><p><blockquote>2月1日：到目前为止，2021年对新兴市场股市来说是好年景。今年迄今为止，iShares MSCI新兴市场交易所交易基金(EEM)上涨了约8%，而SPDR S&amp;P 500ETF（SPDR标普500指数ETF）的涨幅约为3%。自2008年金融危机以来，新兴市场整体表现严重落后于美国股市。</blockquote></p><p> What could propel the asset class higher in 20201 and beyond? In the long term, the likely catalyst is demographics. Developed markets such as the U.S. and Europe have aging populations, which could suggest lower productivity and gross-domestic-product growth over the next decade compared to emerging-market economies.</p><p><blockquote>什么可以推动该资产类别在20201年及以后走高？从长远来看，可能的催化剂是人口统计。美国和欧洲等发达市场人口老龄化，这可能意味着与新兴市场经济体相比，未来十年的生产率和国内生产总值增长可能会较低。</blockquote></p><p> In its most recent capital-markets report, JPMorgan projected GDP growth across emerging markets to be 3.9% in 2021, compared to 1.6% across developed markets. The report suggests China and India will drive GDP growth, and emerging markets’ productivity and human capital will gradually converge to developed-market levels.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通在其最新的资本市场报告中预计，2021年新兴市场的GDP增长率为3.9%，而发达市场为1.6%。报告显示，中国和印度将推动GDP增长，新兴市场的生产率和人力资本将逐渐向发达市场水平趋同。</blockquote></p><p> —Clint Pekrul</p><p><blockquote>-克林特·佩克鲁尔</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-episode-offers-lessons-for-investors-51612572300?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","GME":"游戏驿站",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-episode-offers-lessons-for-investors-51612572300?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195153829","content_text":"This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers and has been edited by Barron’s.\nWhat GameStop Taught Us\nThe Weekly Speculator\nMarketfield Asset Management\nmarketfield.com\nFeb. 4: After all is said and done, one of the most lasting effects of theGameStop(ticker: GME) episode will be to educate many market participants about the key role and ultimate power held by the clearing institution, the Depository Trust Company. One of the stranger aspects of the affair has been the attempt to paint it as some form of moral crusade, or an opportunity for the “little guy” to get even with Wall Street. The truth is that some large investors lost a great deal of money, while others were well rewarded, just as some small investors will have reaped life-changing sums while others will have lost funds that may prove to be equally impactful. In this sense, the market is a meritocracy, which isn’t quite the same as saying that it is always fair in delivering outcomes.\nWhat is also clear is that late January saw a very significant degrossing of levered hedge-fund investors, without causing a deep correction in the equity market. The S&P 500 essentially respected support at the 50-day moving average, and didn’t need to move down to 3600, which we had set as a “worst case” target. The Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, and MSCI Emerging Markets Index didn’t need to touch their corresponding trend support, and all three indexes managed to generate a positive return in January, unlike the S&P 500, which registered a small loss. The subsequent bounce has been rapid and broad, as would be expected from a catalyst that was both technical and ephemeral in nature.\nThat it is not a wholly positive or inconsequential affair. The long bull market is now showing signs of developing into a historic mania. This doesn’t mean that a market peak is imminent, but the normative process—whereby what is “appropriate” is ultimately influenced by extremes—means that the levels of risk being taken by the average investor are probably significantly higher than they were pre-Covid.\n—Michael Shaoul, Timothy Brackett\nHeigh-Ho Silver!\nThe Aden Forecast Weekly Update\nThe Aden Forecast\nadenforecast.com\nFeb. 4: Silver caught on fire by zipping up to the August highs near $30 on Monday during the Reddit buying frenzy. Silver was strong anyway, and it’s been holding up well, so whoever pegged silver knew what they were doing. Silver shares also got a big boost upward, and while they have since calmed down, it looks like volatility will stay with us. Silver has been holding above its 15-week moving average since December, and it’ll remain strong by staying above it at $25. The next milestone to surpass is the $30 level, the highs for this bull market. If clearly broken, another leg up will be underway. Keep your silver and silver share positions.\n—Mary Anne and Pamela Aden\nHow to Play Oil’s Recent Rally\nDaily Insights\nBCA Research\nbcaresearch.com\nFeb 4: The recent oil rally will have consequences for asset prices beyond the energy market. While higher oil prices benefit oil exporters, they hurt the economies of oil importers, often with a lag.\nA great example of these dynamics is China. The Chinese economy is a large oil importer; hence, rising oil prices act as a tax on Chinese growth. Moreover, Chinese A shares massively overweight tech stocks, which receive no benefit from higher energy prices. In fact, over the past four years, increasing Brent prices reliably lead to a decline in on-shore domestic markets by roughly three months. The current setup is reminiscent of early 2018. Back then, Chinese A shares had been rallying for a few months after oil prices had started to rally. Ultimately, a deceleration in Chinese growth and cautious policy making from Beijing resulted in a powerful selloff of Chinese equities. Today, Chinese growth is once again decelerating and Beijing is conducting some significant regulatory tightening, while the People’s Bank of China is draining liquidity. Thus, a significant correction in Chinese shares is likely this spring.\nA lower-octane strategy to play these dynamics is to go long United Kingdom equities relative to Germany’s while espousing the implicit currency exposure. German equities are extremely underweight energy, and Germany imports its entire oil consumption. Meanwhile, the U.K. benchmark is replete with energy stocks and the U.K. remains an oil producer, even if it imports some of its oil (rising Brent represents a comparatively smaller tax on the U.K. economy). As a side benefit, the pound is very cheap against the euro and the U.K.’s vaccination campaign is massively ahead of the eurozone’s, which could result in earlier economic dividends north of the Channel and hurt the euro/pound in the process.\n—Mathieu Savary and Team\nHigh-Yield Opportunities\nCarret Credit Insight\nCarret Asset Mangaement\ncarret.com\nFeb. 3: At year-end 2020, the iBoxx High-Yield Index yielded 4.23%, an all-time low. Spreads also registered record tightness. Low yields aren’t a surprise as investors globally reach for income. The Federal Reserve has backstopped the “fallen angels,” allowing many high-yield (HY) companies to refinance at ever-lower rates and extend upcoming maturities for another day. Strong equity markets are forecasting an earnings rebound, and the vaccines will bring brighter days soon. We continue to find attractive values in the short/intermediate portion of the high-quality HY market.\nWe want to share a recent academic study with you regarding the risk and returns in the HY bond market: George Mason Universityrecently publisheda report on HY bond-fund returns and volatility relative to equities (S&P 500). Since 1990, the average HY bond fund has delivered average annualized returns of 7.1% with a volatility of 7.7%. Over the same time period, the S&P 500 delivered an average annualized return of 7.8%, but with almost double the volatility of 14.5%. The conclusion: HY bonds have paid total returns near those of the U.S. stock market with half of the volatility. We believe the HY market will offer competitive returns in the decade ahead, as equity valuations have risen and Treasury yields have plummeted. Our ability to utilize busted convertibles, preferreds, and special-situation income investments enhances our cash-flow opportunities.\n—Jason R. Graybill, Neil D. Klein\nEmerging Markets Blast Off\nPCM Report\nPeak Capital Management\npcmstrategies.com\nFeb. 1: So far, 2021 has been a good year for emerging-market equities. Year to date, theiShares MSCI Emerging Marketsexchange-traded fund (EEM) is higher by roughly 8%, compared to a gain of approximately 3% for theSPDR S&P 500ETF (SPY). Ever since the financial crisis of 2008, emerging markets collectively have woefully lagged U.S. equities.\nWhat could propel the asset class higher in 20201 and beyond? In the long term, the likely catalyst is demographics. Developed markets such as the U.S. and Europe have aging populations, which could suggest lower productivity and gross-domestic-product growth over the next decade compared to emerging-market economies.\nIn its most recent capital-markets report, JPMorgan projected GDP growth across emerging markets to be 3.9% in 2021, compared to 1.6% across developed markets. The report suggests China and India will drive GDP growth, and emerging markets’ productivity and human capital will gradually converge to developed-market levels.\n—Clint Pekrul","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"GME":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":560,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":389510120,"gmtCreate":1612786695160,"gmtModify":1703764982695,"author":{"id":"3555027716709439","authorId":"3555027716709439","name":"RLST","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b7bffaca05b5c5fc2858ada8443840","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555027716709439","idStr":"3555027716709439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmm&nbsp;","listText":"Hmm&nbsp;","text":"Hmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389510120","repostId":"1134902557","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":662,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":389537911,"gmtCreate":1612786604433,"gmtModify":1703764981140,"author":{"id":"3555027716709439","authorId":"3555027716709439","name":"RLST","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b7bffaca05b5c5fc2858ada8443840","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555027716709439","idStr":"3555027716709439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow&nbsp;","listText":"Wow&nbsp;","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389537911","repostId":"1193450954","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":707,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":382653162,"gmtCreate":1613444391956,"gmtModify":1634553660743,"author":{"id":"3555027716709439","authorId":"3555027716709439","name":"RLST","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b7bffaca05b5c5fc2858ada8443840","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555027716709439","authorIdStr":"3555027716709439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting read&nbsp;","listText":"Interesting read&nbsp;","text":"Interesting read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382653162","repostId":"1114634078","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":579,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":366607921,"gmtCreate":1614468027763,"gmtModify":1703477628120,"author":{"id":"3555027716709439","authorId":"3555027716709439","name":"RLST","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b7bffaca05b5c5fc2858ada8443840","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555027716709439","authorIdStr":"3555027716709439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366607921","repostId":"1103930774","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103930774","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614334872,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1103930774?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-26 18:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why QuantumScape Stock Rose Then Fell Thursday<blockquote>为什么QuantumScape股票周四先涨后跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103930774","media":"Motley Fool ","summary":"The CEO of the solid-state EV battery maker that has garnered much investor interest gave an intervi","content":"<p>The CEO of the solid-state EV battery maker that has garnered much investor interest gave an interview today.</p><p><blockquote>备受投资者关注的固态电动汽车电池制造商的首席执行官今天接受了采访。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What happened</b></p><p><blockquote><b>发生了什么</b></blockquote></p><p> The stock of aspiring solid-state battery technology company&nbsp;<b>QuantumScape</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:QS)&nbsp;has certainly seen ups and downs. Movement in the stock today mirrored that pattern. After an early 10% jump, shares closed more than 3% lower on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>有抱负的固态电池技术公司股票<b>量子景观</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：QS）确实经历了起起落落。今天该股的走势反映了这种模式。在开盘上涨10%后，周四收盘下跌超过3%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那又怎样</b></blockquote></p><p> Shares of the company are down more than 30% year to date after a triple-digit spike in late 2020. The company tends to trade with the&nbsp;electric-vehicle (EV)&nbsp;sector as a speculative stock hoping to revolutionize EV battery technology.</p><p><blockquote>该公司股价在2020年底飙升三位数后，今年迄今已下跌超过30%。该公司倾向于将电动汽车（EV）行业作为投机性股票进行交易，希望彻底改变电动汽车电池技术。</blockquote></p><p> Today, QuantumScape CEO Jagdeep Singh gave an interview to Yahoo! Finance, which may have contributed to the stock's volatile trading.</p><p><blockquote>今天，QuantumScape首席执行官Jagdeep Singh接受了雅虎的采访！金融，这可能导致该股交易波动。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Now what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在怎么办</b></blockquote></p><p> During today's interview, Singh reiterated some positive developments the company shared with investors&nbsp;last week in its earnings release. The company is working toward commercializing the solid-state battery technology that could provide EV makers with a safer, faster-charging battery that can also deliver longer ranges.</p><p><blockquote>在今天的采访中，辛格重申了该公司上周在财报中与投资者分享的一些积极进展。该公司正在努力将固态电池技术商业化，该技术可以为电动汽车制造商提供更安全、充电更快、续航里程更长的电池。</blockquote></p><p> The company reported it has successfully built its first multilayer battery cell with four layers. This helps confirm the technology is feasible. Singh added that he plans to scale up the technology to have an eight to 10-layer cell by the end of this year. That would allow the company to deliver sample cells to automotive manufacturers.</p><p><blockquote>该公司报告称，它已经成功制造了第一个四层多层电池。这有助于确认该技术是可行的。辛格补充说，他计划在今年年底前扩大该技术，使其拥有8至10层电池。这将使该公司能够向汽车制造商提供样品电池。</blockquote></p><p> Singh also said there is interest from other sectors for the technology. \"Things like stationary storage for the grid, that's a really important application for batteries,\" Singh stated in the interview.</p><p><blockquote>辛格还表示，其他行业也对这项技术感兴趣。“像电网的固定存储这样的东西，对于电池来说是一个非常重要的应用，”辛格在采访中表示。</blockquote></p><p> Successful commercial production is far from guaranteed, however. Any investment should be squarely in a speculative portion of a portfolio. And investors should expect ups and downs for both the business developments and the stock, as was seen with today's jump and drop.</p><p><blockquote>然而，成功的商业生产还远未得到保证。任何投资都应该完全属于投资组合的投机部分。投资者应该预计业务发展和股票都会起起落落，正如今天的涨跌所看到的那样。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why QuantumScape Stock Rose Then Fell Thursday<blockquote>为什么QuantumScape股票周四先涨后跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy QuantumScape Stock Rose Then Fell Thursday<blockquote>为什么QuantumScape股票周四先涨后跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool </strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-26 18:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The CEO of the solid-state EV battery maker that has garnered much investor interest gave an interview today.</p><p><blockquote>备受投资者关注的固态电动汽车电池制造商的首席执行官今天接受了采访。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What happened</b></p><p><blockquote><b>发生了什么</b></blockquote></p><p> The stock of aspiring solid-state battery technology company&nbsp;<b>QuantumScape</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:QS)&nbsp;has certainly seen ups and downs. Movement in the stock today mirrored that pattern. After an early 10% jump, shares closed more than 3% lower on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>有抱负的固态电池技术公司股票<b>量子景观</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：QS）确实经历了起起落落。今天该股的走势反映了这种模式。在开盘上涨10%后，周四收盘下跌超过3%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那又怎样</b></blockquote></p><p> Shares of the company are down more than 30% year to date after a triple-digit spike in late 2020. The company tends to trade with the&nbsp;electric-vehicle (EV)&nbsp;sector as a speculative stock hoping to revolutionize EV battery technology.</p><p><blockquote>该公司股价在2020年底飙升三位数后，今年迄今已下跌超过30%。该公司倾向于将电动汽车（EV）行业作为投机性股票进行交易，希望彻底改变电动汽车电池技术。</blockquote></p><p> Today, QuantumScape CEO Jagdeep Singh gave an interview to Yahoo! Finance, which may have contributed to the stock's volatile trading.</p><p><blockquote>今天，QuantumScape首席执行官Jagdeep Singh接受了雅虎的采访！金融，这可能导致该股交易波动。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Now what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在怎么办</b></blockquote></p><p> During today's interview, Singh reiterated some positive developments the company shared with investors&nbsp;last week in its earnings release. The company is working toward commercializing the solid-state battery technology that could provide EV makers with a safer, faster-charging battery that can also deliver longer ranges.</p><p><blockquote>在今天的采访中，辛格重申了该公司上周在财报中与投资者分享的一些积极进展。该公司正在努力将固态电池技术商业化，该技术可以为电动汽车制造商提供更安全、充电更快、续航里程更长的电池。</blockquote></p><p> The company reported it has successfully built its first multilayer battery cell with four layers. This helps confirm the technology is feasible. Singh added that he plans to scale up the technology to have an eight to 10-layer cell by the end of this year. That would allow the company to deliver sample cells to automotive manufacturers.</p><p><blockquote>该公司报告称，它已经成功制造了第一个四层多层电池。这有助于确认该技术是可行的。辛格补充说，他计划在今年年底前扩大该技术，使其拥有8至10层电池。这将使该公司能够向汽车制造商提供样品电池。</blockquote></p><p> Singh also said there is interest from other sectors for the technology. \"Things like stationary storage for the grid, that's a really important application for batteries,\" Singh stated in the interview.</p><p><blockquote>辛格还表示，其他行业也对这项技术感兴趣。“像电网的固定存储这样的东西，对于电池来说是一个非常重要的应用，”辛格在采访中表示。</blockquote></p><p> Successful commercial production is far from guaranteed, however. Any investment should be squarely in a speculative portion of a portfolio. And investors should expect ups and downs for both the business developments and the stock, as was seen with today's jump and drop.</p><p><blockquote>然而，成功的商业生产还远未得到保证。任何投资都应该完全属于投资组合的投机部分。投资者应该预计业务发展和股票都会起起落落，正如今天的涨跌所看到的那样。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/02/25/why-quantumscape-stock-rose-then-fell-today/\">Motley Fool </a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"QS":"Quantumscape Corp."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/02/25/why-quantumscape-stock-rose-then-fell-today/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103930774","content_text":"The CEO of the solid-state EV battery maker that has garnered much investor interest gave an interview today.\nWhat happened\nThe stock of aspiring solid-state battery technology company QuantumScape (NYSE:QS) has certainly seen ups and downs. Movement in the stock today mirrored that pattern. After an early 10% jump, shares closed more than 3% lower on Thursday.\nSo what\nShares of the company are down more than 30% year to date after a triple-digit spike in late 2020. The company tends to trade with the electric-vehicle (EV) sector as a speculative stock hoping to revolutionize EV battery technology.\nToday, QuantumScape CEO Jagdeep Singh gave an interview to Yahoo! Finance, which may have contributed to the stock's volatile trading.\nNow what\nDuring today's interview, Singh reiterated some positive developments the company shared with investors last week in its earnings release. The company is working toward commercializing the solid-state battery technology that could provide EV makers with a safer, faster-charging battery that can also deliver longer ranges.\nThe company reported it has successfully built its first multilayer battery cell with four layers. This helps confirm the technology is feasible. Singh added that he plans to scale up the technology to have an eight to 10-layer cell by the end of this year. That would allow the company to deliver sample cells to automotive manufacturers.\nSingh also said there is interest from other sectors for the technology. \"Things like stationary storage for the grid, that's a really important application for batteries,\" Singh stated in the interview.\nSuccessful commercial production is far from guaranteed, however. Any investment should be squarely in a speculative portion of a portfolio. And investors should expect ups and downs for both the business developments and the stock, as was seen with today's jump and drop.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"QS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1693,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":388962847,"gmtCreate":1613011779789,"gmtModify":1703768356132,"author":{"id":"3555027716709439","authorId":"3555027716709439","name":"RLST","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b7bffaca05b5c5fc2858ada8443840","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555027716709439","authorIdStr":"3555027716709439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/388962847","repostId":"2110049692","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":617,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":389930309,"gmtCreate":1612660376201,"gmtModify":1703764138671,"author":{"id":"3555027716709439","authorId":"3555027716709439","name":"RLST","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b7bffaca05b5c5fc2858ada8443840","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555027716709439","authorIdStr":"3555027716709439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389930309","repostId":"1132260998","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":409,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":315899273,"gmtCreate":1612228326192,"gmtModify":1703759024917,"author":{"id":"3555027716709439","authorId":"3555027716709439","name":"RLST","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b7bffaca05b5c5fc2858ada8443840","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555027716709439","authorIdStr":"3555027716709439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great!","listText":"Great!","text":"Great!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/315899273","repostId":"2108271505","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":481,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":353614101,"gmtCreate":1616491226003,"gmtModify":1634525558306,"author":{"id":"3555027716709439","authorId":"3555027716709439","name":"RLST","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b7bffaca05b5c5fc2858ada8443840","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555027716709439","authorIdStr":"3555027716709439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/353614101","repostId":"1151503425","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151503425","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616490299,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1151503425?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-23 17:04","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"A bitcoin winter ahead? Crypto expert predicts just that, but after digital asset hits $300,000 at end of 2021<blockquote>比特币的冬天即将来临？加密货币专家正是这样预测的，但在数字资产到2021年底达到300,000美元之后</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151503425","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Bitcoin prices could reach $300,000 soon — but then sink into a dark period, if history is any gauge","content":"<p>Bitcoin prices could reach $300,000 soon — but then sink into a dark period, if history is any gauge, according to one expert.</p><p><blockquote>一位专家表示，比特币的价格可能很快就会达到30万美元，但如果以历史来衡量的话，随后就会陷入黑暗时期。</blockquote></p><p> Bobby Lee, co-founder and former CEO of crypto exchange BTCC, told&nbsp;CNBC Asiain a Monday interview that bitcoin&nbsp;tends to operate in four-year bull cycles, with big jumps in 2013, 2017 and this year’s most recent surge representing the latest uptrend for the world’s most prominent crypto.</p><p><blockquote>加密货币交易所BTCC联合创始人兼前首席执行官Bobby Lee在周一接受CNBC Asia采访时表示，比特币往往在四年牛市周期中运行，2013年、2017年大幅上涨，今年最近的飙升代表了世界上最著名的加密货币的最新上升趋势。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5df4f05d24e14fb490e45b1813e79564\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"587\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> However, if the pattern holds true, a fallow period for the asset created in 2009 is also likely to follow that could last two or three years, “if history plays itself out again,”Lee told CNBC, adding that he isn’t certain “history will repeat itself” but notes that that the nascent ascent since its inception has thus far followed a predictable pattern.</p><p><blockquote>然而，如果这种模式成立，2009年创建的资产也可能会出现休眠期，“如果历史再次重演”，这可能会持续两到三年，”Lee告诉CNBC，并补充说他不确定“历史会重演”，但他指出，自开始以来的新生上升迄今为止一直遵循可预测的模式。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t know if history will repeat itself but what we do know is that bitcoin bull market cycles come every four years and this is a big one,” Lee said.</p><p><blockquote>“我不知道历史是否会重演，但我们知道的是，比特币牛市周期每四年就会出现一次，而且这是一个大周期，”李说。</blockquote></p><p> Lee predicted that bitcoin could hit $100,000 by the end of the summer and possible touch $300,000 by the end of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>Lee预测，比特币到夏末可能会达到10万美元，到2021年底可能会达到30万美元。</blockquote></p><p> After a possible 10x surge by bitcoin at the end of the year, it is likely to come crashing back down to Earth, if it adheres to moves in its past two other bull phases.</p><p><blockquote>在年底比特币可能飙升10倍之后，如果它坚持过去另外两个牛市阶段的走势，它很可能会崩溃。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, bitcoin’s bullish trading patterns over the past decade don’t offer up a statistically robust sample size, but it may be something that upbeat investors cling to, at least, until values crater.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，比特币过去十年的看涨交易模式并没有提供统计上稳健的样本量，但乐观的投资者可能会坚持下去，至少在价值暴跌之前。</blockquote></p><p> “Bull-market cycles come and go and after a bull-market peak, inevitably it can go down by quite a bit and that’s when the bubble bursts,” Lee said.</p><p><blockquote>“牛市周期来来去去，在牛市峰值之后，牛市不可避免地会下跌相当多，这就是泡沫破裂的时候，”李说。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin is up 96% so far in 2021, compared with a nearly 7% year-to-date gain for the Dow Jones Industrial Average,a 5% rise for the S&amp;P 500 index,a 4% gain for the Nasdaq Composite Index&nbsp;and an over 8% decline for gold,FactSet data show.</p><p><blockquote>2021年迄今为止，比特币股价上涨了96%，而道琼斯工业平均指数今年迄今上涨了近7%，标普500指数上涨了5%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨了4%，FactSet数据显示，黄金下跌了8%以上。</blockquote></p><p> “In the crypto industry, we call it bitcoin winter and it can last for two to three years. So after it peaks out…people should be aware that it could fall as much as 80% to 90% of its value from the all-time peak,” he explained.</p><p><blockquote>“在加密货币行业，我们在比特币冬季看涨期权它，它可以持续两到三年。因此，在它达到顶峰后……人们应该意识到，它的价值可能会比历史峰值下降80%到90%，”他解释道。</blockquote></p><p> At last check, bitcoin was trading at $56,728, off less than 1% on Monday and not far from its recent all-time high at $61,556.59, according to CoinDesk.</p><p><blockquote>根据CoinDesk的数据，最后一次检查时，比特币的交易价格为56,728美元，比周一下跌不到1%，距离最近的历史高点61,556.59美元不远。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A bitcoin winter ahead? Crypto expert predicts just that, but after digital asset hits $300,000 at end of 2021<blockquote>比特币的冬天即将来临？加密货币专家正是这样预测的，但在数字资产到2021年底达到300,000美元之后</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA bitcoin winter ahead? Crypto expert predicts just that, but after digital asset hits $300,000 at end of 2021<blockquote>比特币的冬天即将来临？加密货币专家正是这样预测的，但在数字资产到2021年底达到300,000美元之后</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-23 17:04</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Bitcoin prices could reach $300,000 soon — but then sink into a dark period, if history is any gauge, according to one expert.</p><p><blockquote>一位专家表示，比特币的价格可能很快就会达到30万美元，但如果以历史来衡量的话，随后就会陷入黑暗时期。</blockquote></p><p> Bobby Lee, co-founder and former CEO of crypto exchange BTCC, told&nbsp;CNBC Asiain a Monday interview that bitcoin&nbsp;tends to operate in four-year bull cycles, with big jumps in 2013, 2017 and this year’s most recent surge representing the latest uptrend for the world’s most prominent crypto.</p><p><blockquote>加密货币交易所BTCC联合创始人兼前首席执行官Bobby Lee在周一接受CNBC Asia采访时表示，比特币往往在四年牛市周期中运行，2013年、2017年大幅上涨，今年最近的飙升代表了世界上最著名的加密货币的最新上升趋势。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5df4f05d24e14fb490e45b1813e79564\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"587\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> However, if the pattern holds true, a fallow period for the asset created in 2009 is also likely to follow that could last two or three years, “if history plays itself out again,”Lee told CNBC, adding that he isn’t certain “history will repeat itself” but notes that that the nascent ascent since its inception has thus far followed a predictable pattern.</p><p><blockquote>然而，如果这种模式成立，2009年创建的资产也可能会出现休眠期，“如果历史再次重演”，这可能会持续两到三年，”Lee告诉CNBC，并补充说他不确定“历史会重演”，但他指出，自开始以来的新生上升迄今为止一直遵循可预测的模式。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t know if history will repeat itself but what we do know is that bitcoin bull market cycles come every four years and this is a big one,” Lee said.</p><p><blockquote>“我不知道历史是否会重演，但我们知道的是，比特币牛市周期每四年就会出现一次，而且这是一个大周期，”李说。</blockquote></p><p> Lee predicted that bitcoin could hit $100,000 by the end of the summer and possible touch $300,000 by the end of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>Lee预测，比特币到夏末可能会达到10万美元，到2021年底可能会达到30万美元。</blockquote></p><p> After a possible 10x surge by bitcoin at the end of the year, it is likely to come crashing back down to Earth, if it adheres to moves in its past two other bull phases.</p><p><blockquote>在年底比特币可能飙升10倍之后，如果它坚持过去另外两个牛市阶段的走势，它很可能会崩溃。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, bitcoin’s bullish trading patterns over the past decade don’t offer up a statistically robust sample size, but it may be something that upbeat investors cling to, at least, until values crater.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，比特币过去十年的看涨交易模式并没有提供统计上稳健的样本量，但乐观的投资者可能会坚持下去，至少在价值暴跌之前。</blockquote></p><p> “Bull-market cycles come and go and after a bull-market peak, inevitably it can go down by quite a bit and that’s when the bubble bursts,” Lee said.</p><p><blockquote>“牛市周期来来去去，在牛市峰值之后，牛市不可避免地会下跌相当多，这就是泡沫破裂的时候，”李说。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin is up 96% so far in 2021, compared with a nearly 7% year-to-date gain for the Dow Jones Industrial Average,a 5% rise for the S&amp;P 500 index,a 4% gain for the Nasdaq Composite Index&nbsp;and an over 8% decline for gold,FactSet data show.</p><p><blockquote>2021年迄今为止，比特币股价上涨了96%，而道琼斯工业平均指数今年迄今上涨了近7%，标普500指数上涨了5%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨了4%，FactSet数据显示，黄金下跌了8%以上。</blockquote></p><p> “In the crypto industry, we call it bitcoin winter and it can last for two to three years. So after it peaks out…people should be aware that it could fall as much as 80% to 90% of its value from the all-time peak,” he explained.</p><p><blockquote>“在加密货币行业，我们在比特币冬季看涨期权它，它可以持续两到三年。因此，在它达到顶峰后……人们应该意识到，它的价值可能会比历史峰值下降80%到90%，”他解释道。</blockquote></p><p> At last check, bitcoin was trading at $56,728, off less than 1% on Monday and not far from its recent all-time high at $61,556.59, according to CoinDesk.</p><p><blockquote>根据CoinDesk的数据，最后一次检查时，比特币的交易价格为56,728美元，比周一下跌不到1%，距离最近的历史高点61,556.59美元不远。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-bitcoin-winter-ahead-crypto-expert-predicts-just-that-but-after-digital-asset-hits-300-000-at-end-of-2021-11616431972?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal","TSLA":"特斯拉","GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-bitcoin-winter-ahead-crypto-expert-predicts-just-that-but-after-digital-asset-hits-300-000-at-end-of-2021-11616431972?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1151503425","content_text":"Bitcoin prices could reach $300,000 soon — but then sink into a dark period, if history is any gauge, according to one expert.\nBobby Lee, co-founder and former CEO of crypto exchange BTCC, told CNBC Asiain a Monday interview that bitcoin tends to operate in four-year bull cycles, with big jumps in 2013, 2017 and this year’s most recent surge representing the latest uptrend for the world’s most prominent crypto.\n\nHowever, if the pattern holds true, a fallow period for the asset created in 2009 is also likely to follow that could last two or three years, “if history plays itself out again,”Lee told CNBC, adding that he isn’t certain “history will repeat itself” but notes that that the nascent ascent since its inception has thus far followed a predictable pattern.\n“I don’t know if history will repeat itself but what we do know is that bitcoin bull market cycles come every four years and this is a big one,” Lee said.\nLee predicted that bitcoin could hit $100,000 by the end of the summer and possible touch $300,000 by the end of 2021.\nAfter a possible 10x surge by bitcoin at the end of the year, it is likely to come crashing back down to Earth, if it adheres to moves in its past two other bull phases.\nTo be sure, bitcoin’s bullish trading patterns over the past decade don’t offer up a statistically robust sample size, but it may be something that upbeat investors cling to, at least, until values crater.\n“Bull-market cycles come and go and after a bull-market peak, inevitably it can go down by quite a bit and that’s when the bubble bursts,” Lee said.\nBitcoin is up 96% so far in 2021, compared with a nearly 7% year-to-date gain for the Dow Jones Industrial Average,a 5% rise for the S&P 500 index,a 4% gain for the Nasdaq Composite Index and an over 8% decline for gold,FactSet data show.\n“In the crypto industry, we call it bitcoin winter and it can last for two to three years. So after it peaks out…people should be aware that it could fall as much as 80% to 90% of its value from the all-time peak,” he explained.\nAt last check, bitcoin was trading at $56,728, off less than 1% on Monday and not far from its recent all-time high at $61,556.59, according to CoinDesk.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9,"GBTC":0.9,"XBTmain":0.9,"SQ":0.9,"BTCmain":0.9,"PYPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1319,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":369015653,"gmtCreate":1613988023472,"gmtModify":1634551648852,"author":{"id":"3555027716709439","authorId":"3555027716709439","name":"RLST","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b7bffaca05b5c5fc2858ada8443840","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555027716709439","authorIdStr":"3555027716709439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting","listText":"Interesting","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/369015653","repostId":"1153806804","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":581,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382315419,"gmtCreate":1613362581031,"gmtModify":1634553855277,"author":{"id":"3555027716709439","authorId":"3555027716709439","name":"RLST","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b7bffaca05b5c5fc2858ada8443840","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555027716709439","authorIdStr":"3555027716709439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Keep","listText":"Keep","text":"Keep","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382315419","repostId":"2110044852","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":344,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":312151113,"gmtCreate":1612072741432,"gmtModify":1703757638076,"author":{"id":"3555027716709439","authorId":"3555027716709439","name":"RLST","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b7bffaca05b5c5fc2858ada8443840","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555027716709439","authorIdStr":"3555027716709439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow!","listText":"Wow!","text":"Wow!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/312151113","repostId":"1118653988","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118653988","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1611907973,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1118653988?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-01-29 16:12","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"After plunge, GameStop and AMC remain Reddit darlings<blockquote>暴跌后，游戏驿站和AMC仍然是Reddit的宠儿</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118653988","media":"Reuters","summary":"(Reuters) - GameStop and AMC Entertainment Holdings remained overwhelmingly favored stocks on Reddit","content":"<p>(Reuters) - GameStop and AMC Entertainment Holdings remained overwhelmingly favored stocks on Reddit’s top trading forum on Thursday, even as they and other companies at the core of a retail trader frenzy plummeted after online brokerages imposed trading restrictions.</p><p><blockquote>（路透社）-周四，游戏驿站和AMC院线控股公司在Reddit顶级交易论坛上仍然受到压倒性的青睐，尽管在在线券商实施交易限制后，它们和其他处于散户交易狂潮核心的公司暴跌。</blockquote></p><p> FILE PHOTO: A man walks past a GameStop store in Austin, TX, U.S., March 26, 2018. REUTERS/Mohammad Khursheed</p><p><blockquote>资料图片：2018年3月26日，美国德克萨斯州奥斯丁，一名男子走过一家游戏驿站商店。路透社/穆罕默德·库尔希德</blockquote></p><p> Data about posts and comments on Reddit’s Wallstreetbets, aggregated on swaggystocks.com, showed GameStop and AMC were by far the most discussed stocks on the discussion group that has fueled their recent surge, with both continuing to enjoy overwhelming positive sentiment.</p><p><blockquote>swaggystocks.com汇总的Reddit WallStreetBets上的帖子和评论数据显示，游戏驿站和AMC是迄今为止讨论组中讨论最多的股票，这推动了它们最近的飙升，两者都继续享有压倒性的积极情绪。</blockquote></p><p> Swaggystocks.com was created by Reddit member swaggymedia, whose posts sharing data about Wallstreetbets sentiment have won thousands of “upvotes” from readers. Swaggystocks did not immediately respond to an email asking for his identity but gave permission for his content to be reproduced.</p><p><blockquote>Swaggystocks.com是由Reddit成员swaggymedia创建的，其分享有关Wallstreetbets情绪数据的帖子赢得了数千名读者的“点赞”。Swaggystocks没有立即回复询问他身份的电子邮件，但允许复制他的内容。</blockquote></p><p> For a graphic on Wallstreetbets ticker sentiment:</p><p><blockquote>有关Wallstreetbets股票情绪的图表：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a44da0c979cb6119dbc462a5a36ebb6\" tg-width=\"1127\" tg-height=\"633\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> GameStop and AMC Entertainment Holdings slumped on Thursday after Robinhood Markets Inc and Interactive Brokers restricted trading in several social-media darling stocks that had soared this week, with trading platform Robinhood later saying it would remove some restrictions on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>在Robinhood Markets Inc和盈透证券限制了本周飙升的几只社交媒体宠儿股票的交易后，游戏驿站和AMC院线控股周四暴跌，交易平台Robinhood后来表示将在周五取消一些限制。</blockquote></p><p> ADVERTISEMENT</p><p><blockquote>广告</blockquote></p><p> GameStop dropped 44%, but the stock remains up almost 900% since Jan. 12. AMC’s 57% drop reduced its gain since Jan. 21 to around 190%. Also falling heavily were Blackberry, Koss and Express, which Robinhood also restricted trading in.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站股价下跌44%，但该股自1月12日以来仍上涨近900%。AMC自1月21日以来下跌了57%，使其涨幅降至190%左右。同样大幅下跌的还有黑莓、Koss和Express，Robinhood也限制了这些公司的交易。</blockquote></p><p> Wallstreetbets has ballooned in recent days to 4.8 million members. Many of those people have piled into stock heavily bet against by professional short sellers, overwhelming the professionals and forcing them over the past week to abandon their positions with heavy losses.</p><p><blockquote>最近几天，Wallstreetbets的会员数量激增至480万。这些人中的许多人大量买入了专业卖空者大量做空的股票，这让专业人士不知所措，并迫使他们在过去一周因损失惨重而放弃头寸。</blockquote></p><p> AMC, GameStop, Nokia and Blackberry are currently the most discussed stocks on Wallstreetbets, eclipsing Tesla, which has long dominated chatter amongst its members. AMC and GameStop account for over 25% of recent comments on Wallstreetbets, with Nokia accounting for over 20%.</p><p><blockquote>AMC、游戏驿站、诺基亚和黑莓目前是Wallstreetbets上讨论最多的股票，超过了长期以来在其会员中占据主导地位的特斯拉。AMC和游戏驿站占Wallstreetbets最近评论的25%以上，诺基亚占20%以上。</blockquote></p><p> Discussion of GameStop has receded over the past week as a proportion of overall comments, although the sentiment of comments about the company remains overwhelmingly positive. Swaggystocks calculates sentiment by analyzing individual words used in posts and comments.</p><p><blockquote>过去一周，对游戏驿站的讨论在整体评论中所占的比例有所下降，尽管对该公司的评论情绪仍然绝大多数是积极的。Swaggystocks通过分析帖子和评论中使用的单个单词来计算情绪。</blockquote></p><p> For a graphic on Gamestop ticker sentiment:</p><p><blockquote>有关游戏驿站股票情绪的图表：</blockquote></p><p> ADVERTISEMENT</p><p><blockquote>广告</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48de9fd8f03152c126a0d511dabb9689\" tg-width=\"1128\" tg-height=\"648\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Along with its stock price, AMC’s prominence on Wallstreetbets has skyrocketed this week to match GameStop’s, after accounting for less than 1% of all comments on Monday. Sentiment in AMC is close to entirely positive on Wallstreetbets, according to Swaggystocks.com.</p><p><blockquote>除了股价之外，AMC在Wallstreetbets上的知名度本周也飙升，与游戏驿站不相上下，周一仅占所有评论的不到1%。据Swaggystocks.com称，AMC对Wallstreetbets的情绪几乎完全乐观。</blockquote></p><p> For a graphic on AMC ticker sentiment:</p><p><blockquote>有关AMC股票情绪的图表：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a1a46cd1fdf34a3c435928e4a2609fd\" tg-width=\"1122\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Data analytics firm Palantir Technologies, which in early January accounted for as much as 16% of comments on Wallstreetbets, has seen its prominence in the group fall to under 1%, even as its stock this week hit a record high.</p><p><blockquote>数据分析公司Palantir Technologies在1月初占Wallstreetbets评论的16%，尽管其股价本周创下历史新高，但其在该集团中的地位已降至1%以下。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla, which has long been a popular stock on Wallstreetbets and a major target of short sellers, currently accounts for less than 1% of comments in the discussion group, down from over 30% in the first week of January. Tesla’s stock is roughly unchanged over that time period after reporting disappointing quarterly results on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉长期以来一直是Wallstreetbets上的热门股票，也是卖空者的主要目标，目前在讨论组中的评论比例不到1%，低于1月第一周的30%以上。在周三公布令人失望的季度业绩后，特斯拉的股价在此期间大致没有变化。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>After plunge, GameStop and AMC remain Reddit darlings<blockquote>暴跌后，游戏驿站和AMC仍然是Reddit的宠儿</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAfter plunge, GameStop and AMC remain Reddit darlings<blockquote>暴跌后，游戏驿站和AMC仍然是Reddit的宠儿</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-01-29 16:12</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Reuters) - GameStop and AMC Entertainment Holdings remained overwhelmingly favored stocks on Reddit’s top trading forum on Thursday, even as they and other companies at the core of a retail trader frenzy plummeted after online brokerages imposed trading restrictions.</p><p><blockquote>（路透社）-周四，游戏驿站和AMC院线控股公司在Reddit顶级交易论坛上仍然受到压倒性的青睐，尽管在在线券商实施交易限制后，它们和其他处于散户交易狂潮核心的公司暴跌。</blockquote></p><p> FILE PHOTO: A man walks past a GameStop store in Austin, TX, U.S., March 26, 2018. REUTERS/Mohammad Khursheed</p><p><blockquote>资料图片：2018年3月26日，美国德克萨斯州奥斯丁，一名男子走过一家游戏驿站商店。路透社/穆罕默德·库尔希德</blockquote></p><p> Data about posts and comments on Reddit’s Wallstreetbets, aggregated on swaggystocks.com, showed GameStop and AMC were by far the most discussed stocks on the discussion group that has fueled their recent surge, with both continuing to enjoy overwhelming positive sentiment.</p><p><blockquote>swaggystocks.com汇总的Reddit WallStreetBets上的帖子和评论数据显示，游戏驿站和AMC是迄今为止讨论组中讨论最多的股票，这推动了它们最近的飙升，两者都继续享有压倒性的积极情绪。</blockquote></p><p> Swaggystocks.com was created by Reddit member swaggymedia, whose posts sharing data about Wallstreetbets sentiment have won thousands of “upvotes” from readers. Swaggystocks did not immediately respond to an email asking for his identity but gave permission for his content to be reproduced.</p><p><blockquote>Swaggystocks.com是由Reddit成员swaggymedia创建的，其分享有关Wallstreetbets情绪数据的帖子赢得了数千名读者的“点赞”。Swaggystocks没有立即回复询问他身份的电子邮件，但允许复制他的内容。</blockquote></p><p> For a graphic on Wallstreetbets ticker sentiment:</p><p><blockquote>有关Wallstreetbets股票情绪的图表：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a44da0c979cb6119dbc462a5a36ebb6\" tg-width=\"1127\" tg-height=\"633\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> GameStop and AMC Entertainment Holdings slumped on Thursday after Robinhood Markets Inc and Interactive Brokers restricted trading in several social-media darling stocks that had soared this week, with trading platform Robinhood later saying it would remove some restrictions on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>在Robinhood Markets Inc和盈透证券限制了本周飙升的几只社交媒体宠儿股票的交易后，游戏驿站和AMC院线控股周四暴跌，交易平台Robinhood后来表示将在周五取消一些限制。</blockquote></p><p> ADVERTISEMENT</p><p><blockquote>广告</blockquote></p><p> GameStop dropped 44%, but the stock remains up almost 900% since Jan. 12. AMC’s 57% drop reduced its gain since Jan. 21 to around 190%. Also falling heavily were Blackberry, Koss and Express, which Robinhood also restricted trading in.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站股价下跌44%，但该股自1月12日以来仍上涨近900%。AMC自1月21日以来下跌了57%，使其涨幅降至190%左右。同样大幅下跌的还有黑莓、Koss和Express，Robinhood也限制了这些公司的交易。</blockquote></p><p> Wallstreetbets has ballooned in recent days to 4.8 million members. Many of those people have piled into stock heavily bet against by professional short sellers, overwhelming the professionals and forcing them over the past week to abandon their positions with heavy losses.</p><p><blockquote>最近几天，Wallstreetbets的会员数量激增至480万。这些人中的许多人大量买入了专业卖空者大量做空的股票，这让专业人士不知所措，并迫使他们在过去一周因损失惨重而放弃头寸。</blockquote></p><p> AMC, GameStop, Nokia and Blackberry are currently the most discussed stocks on Wallstreetbets, eclipsing Tesla, which has long dominated chatter amongst its members. AMC and GameStop account for over 25% of recent comments on Wallstreetbets, with Nokia accounting for over 20%.</p><p><blockquote>AMC、游戏驿站、诺基亚和黑莓目前是Wallstreetbets上讨论最多的股票，超过了长期以来在其会员中占据主导地位的特斯拉。AMC和游戏驿站占Wallstreetbets最近评论的25%以上，诺基亚占20%以上。</blockquote></p><p> Discussion of GameStop has receded over the past week as a proportion of overall comments, although the sentiment of comments about the company remains overwhelmingly positive. Swaggystocks calculates sentiment by analyzing individual words used in posts and comments.</p><p><blockquote>过去一周，对游戏驿站的讨论在整体评论中所占的比例有所下降，尽管对该公司的评论情绪仍然绝大多数是积极的。Swaggystocks通过分析帖子和评论中使用的单个单词来计算情绪。</blockquote></p><p> For a graphic on Gamestop ticker sentiment:</p><p><blockquote>有关游戏驿站股票情绪的图表：</blockquote></p><p> ADVERTISEMENT</p><p><blockquote>广告</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48de9fd8f03152c126a0d511dabb9689\" tg-width=\"1128\" tg-height=\"648\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Along with its stock price, AMC’s prominence on Wallstreetbets has skyrocketed this week to match GameStop’s, after accounting for less than 1% of all comments on Monday. Sentiment in AMC is close to entirely positive on Wallstreetbets, according to Swaggystocks.com.</p><p><blockquote>除了股价之外，AMC在Wallstreetbets上的知名度本周也飙升，与游戏驿站不相上下，周一仅占所有评论的不到1%。据Swaggystocks.com称，AMC对Wallstreetbets的情绪几乎完全乐观。</blockquote></p><p> For a graphic on AMC ticker sentiment:</p><p><blockquote>有关AMC股票情绪的图表：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a1a46cd1fdf34a3c435928e4a2609fd\" tg-width=\"1122\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Data analytics firm Palantir Technologies, which in early January accounted for as much as 16% of comments on Wallstreetbets, has seen its prominence in the group fall to under 1%, even as its stock this week hit a record high.</p><p><blockquote>数据分析公司Palantir Technologies在1月初占Wallstreetbets评论的16%，尽管其股价本周创下历史新高，但其在该集团中的地位已降至1%以下。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla, which has long been a popular stock on Wallstreetbets and a major target of short sellers, currently accounts for less than 1% of comments in the discussion group, down from over 30% in the first week of January. Tesla’s stock is roughly unchanged over that time period after reporting disappointing quarterly results on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉长期以来一直是Wallstreetbets上的热门股票，也是卖空者的主要目标，目前在讨论组中的评论比例不到1%，低于1月第一周的30%以上。在周三公布令人失望的季度业绩后，特斯拉的股价在此期间大致没有变化。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-retail-trading-reddit-data/after-plunge-gamestop-and-amc-remain-reddit-darlings-idUSKBN29Y0HR?il=0\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-retail-trading-reddit-data/after-plunge-gamestop-and-amc-remain-reddit-darlings-idUSKBN29Y0HR?il=0","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118653988","content_text":"(Reuters) - GameStop and AMC Entertainment Holdings remained overwhelmingly favored stocks on Reddit’s top trading forum on Thursday, even as they and other companies at the core of a retail trader frenzy plummeted after online brokerages imposed trading restrictions.\nFILE PHOTO: A man walks past a GameStop store in Austin, TX, U.S., March 26, 2018. REUTERS/Mohammad Khursheed\nData about posts and comments on Reddit’s Wallstreetbets, aggregated on swaggystocks.com, showed GameStop and AMC were by far the most discussed stocks on the discussion group that has fueled their recent surge, with both continuing to enjoy overwhelming positive sentiment.\nSwaggystocks.com was created by Reddit member swaggymedia, whose posts sharing data about Wallstreetbets sentiment have won thousands of “upvotes” from readers. Swaggystocks did not immediately respond to an email asking for his identity but gave permission for his content to be reproduced.\nFor a graphic on Wallstreetbets ticker sentiment:\n\nGameStop and AMC Entertainment Holdings slumped on Thursday after Robinhood Markets Inc and Interactive Brokers restricted trading in several social-media darling stocks that had soared this week, with trading platform Robinhood later saying it would remove some restrictions on Friday.\nADVERTISEMENT\nGameStop dropped 44%, but the stock remains up almost 900% since Jan. 12. AMC’s 57% drop reduced its gain since Jan. 21 to around 190%. Also falling heavily were Blackberry, Koss and Express, which Robinhood also restricted trading in.\nWallstreetbets has ballooned in recent days to 4.8 million members. Many of those people have piled into stock heavily bet against by professional short sellers, overwhelming the professionals and forcing them over the past week to abandon their positions with heavy losses.\nAMC, GameStop, Nokia and Blackberry are currently the most discussed stocks on Wallstreetbets, eclipsing Tesla, which has long dominated chatter amongst its members. AMC and GameStop account for over 25% of recent comments on Wallstreetbets, with Nokia accounting for over 20%.\nDiscussion of GameStop has receded over the past week as a proportion of overall comments, although the sentiment of comments about the company remains overwhelmingly positive. Swaggystocks calculates sentiment by analyzing individual words used in posts and comments.\nFor a graphic on Gamestop ticker sentiment:\nADVERTISEMENT\n\nAlong with its stock price, AMC’s prominence on Wallstreetbets has skyrocketed this week to match GameStop’s, after accounting for less than 1% of all comments on Monday. Sentiment in AMC is close to entirely positive on Wallstreetbets, according to Swaggystocks.com.\nFor a graphic on AMC ticker sentiment:\n\nData analytics firm Palantir Technologies, which in early January accounted for as much as 16% of comments on Wallstreetbets, has seen its prominence in the group fall to under 1%, even as its stock this week hit a record high.\nTesla, which has long been a popular stock on Wallstreetbets and a major target of short sellers, currently accounts for less than 1% of comments in the discussion group, down from over 30% in the first week of January. Tesla’s stock is roughly unchanged over that time period after reporting disappointing quarterly results on Wednesday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":374,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":312153429,"gmtCreate":1612072620461,"gmtModify":1703757637050,"author":{"id":"3555027716709439","authorId":"3555027716709439","name":"RLST","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b7bffaca05b5c5fc2858ada8443840","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555027716709439","authorIdStr":"3555027716709439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice&nbsp;","listText":"Nice&nbsp;","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/312153429","repostId":"1181933127","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":363,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3527667803686145","authorIdStr":"3527667803686145"},"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":365345601,"gmtCreate":1614698497403,"gmtModify":1703480095936,"author":{"id":"3555027716709439","authorId":"3555027716709439","name":"RLST","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b7bffaca05b5c5fc2858ada8443840","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555027716709439","authorIdStr":"3555027716709439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/365345601","repostId":"2116599540","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1557,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":366607113,"gmtCreate":1614468057832,"gmtModify":1703477628796,"author":{"id":"3555027716709439","authorId":"3555027716709439","name":"RLST","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b7bffaca05b5c5fc2858ada8443840","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555027716709439","authorIdStr":"3555027716709439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow&nbsp;","listText":"Wow&nbsp;","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366607113","repostId":"1146313632","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146313632","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614334339,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146313632?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-26 18:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Gamestop And High Volatility Options<blockquote>游戏驿站和高波动性期权</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146313632","media":"Options AI: Learn","summary":"Gamestop Corp. shares have soared the past few days with the stock up nearly 200% at one point from ","content":"<p><b>Gamestop Corp.</b>&nbsp;shares have soared the past few days with the stock up nearly 200% at one point from last week (but still down significantly from recent short squeeze highs). We'll look at the unique situations that arise in the options of a highly volatile stock like Gamestop and a few things that might be considered before trading options.</p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站公司。</b>过去几天股价飙升，较上周一度上涨近200%（但仍较近期轧空高点大幅下跌）。我们将看看像游戏驿站这样波动性很大的股票的期权中出现的独特情况，以及在交易期权之前可能需要考虑的一些事情。</blockquote></p><p><hr><b>Gamestop: The Expected Move</b></p><p><blockquote><hr/><b>游戏驿站：预期的举动</b></blockquote></p><p>First, a look at how options are pricing upcoming moves. Here's theOptions AIexpected move chart for Gamestop, with a nearly 30% move being priced into this Friday's close. And a roughly 80% move being priced for the next month. A month that includes an earnings event (unconfirmed):</p><p><blockquote>首先，看看期权如何为即将到来的走势定价。这是游戏驿站的期权AI预期走势图，预计本周五收盘价将出现近30%的走势。下个月的价格将上涨大约80%。包含盈利事件的月份（未经确认）：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e35872724d8db887fa09d822d622ac8c\" tg-width=\"568\" tg-height=\"817\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Gamestop: Call Spreads vs Outright Calls</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站：看涨期权价差与彻底的评级</blockquote></p><p>Using March 19th as an expiry we first looks at bullish spreads, and compare directly to outright calls. With a stock as volatile as Gamestop, calls can be expensive. Because of that, many traders resort to buying far out of the money calls. That demand for upside calls increases volatility in those calls, making them expensive relative to at-the-money calls – a phenomenon known as skew. However, for those that are bullish, this may create an opportunity to utilize spreads rather than buying an outright call. Let's see how.</p><p><blockquote>以3月19日为到期日，我们首先查看看涨利差，并直接与直接评级进行比较。像游戏驿站这样不稳定的股票，评级的股价可能会很昂贵。正因为如此，许多交易者诉诸远超本钱的评级买入。对上行评级的需求增加了这些评级的波动性，使其相对于平价评级的价格昂贵——这种现象被称为倾斜。然而，对于那些看涨的人来说，这可能会创造一个利用价差而不是直接购买看涨期权的机会。让我们看看怎么做。</blockquote></p><p>Here we'll focus on one alternative – using debit spreads to lower the overall cost of a directional trade (while potentially improving the probability of profit of the trade itself by lowering the breakeven level). It does so by selling those relatively expensive out-the-money Calls to help finance the purchase of a nearer to at-the-money Call.</p><p><blockquote>在这里，我们将重点关注一种替代方案——使用借方利差来降低定向交易的总体成本（同时通过降低盈亏平衡水平来提高交易本身的盈利概率）。它通过出售那些相对昂贵的价外评级来帮助购买更接近价外的看涨期权来实现这一目标。</blockquote></p><p>With Gamestop near $105, the&nbsp;<b>March 19th 110/190 Debit Call Spread</b>&nbsp;is roughly $15 and targets the bullish expected move for March 19th. The debit call spread would need the stock to be above $125 on March 19th to be profitable.</p><p><blockquote>随着游戏驿站接近105美元，<b>3月19日110/190借方看涨期权利差</b>大约为15美元，目标是3月19日的看涨预期走势。借方看涨期权利差需要该股在3月19日高于125美元才能盈利。</blockquote></p><p>As a comparison, the GME March 19th 200 calls are trading $29. That's nearly twice the cost for a 200 call that needs the stock above $229 by March 19th… versus a call spread, that needs the stock above $125. Here's a side by side comparison of those two trades on the Options AI chart. First, the 200 call:</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，GME 3月19日200评级的交易价格为29美元。这几乎是200美元看涨期权的成本的两倍，需要股票在3月19日之前高于229美元……而看涨期权的价差需要股票高于125美元。以下是期权人工智能图表上这两种交易的并排比较。一、200家看涨期权：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b044a22bfbe5a8326f9aa3ebf56ed4fd\" tg-width=\"570\" tg-height=\"740\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>And next, the 145/200 debit call spread:</p><p><blockquote>接下来，145/200借方看涨期权利差：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cdf8545f07da48f770ef81cb4e5ac53\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"792\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>As you can see, not only is the call spread less expensive, the point at which is becomes profitable to the upside is much closer to where the stock is currently trading. (As indicated by the grey price of the breakeven.)</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，看涨期权价差不仅更便宜，而且上涨盈利的点也更接近股票当前的交易价格。（如盈亏平衡的灰色价格所示。）</blockquote></p><p>A note on probability of profit. The probability of profit displayed on these trades is based on the delta being assigned to the breakeven of the trade. The fact that a 200 call in a $105 stock is trading near 50 deltas shows just how distorting an effect Gamestop volatility is having on its options (hard to borrow, skew, retail demand for out-of-the-money calls).</p><p><blockquote>关于盈利概率的一个注记。这些交易显示的利润概率基于分配给交易盈亏平衡的delta。105美元股票的200看涨期权交易价格接近50 deltas，这一事实表明游戏驿站波动对其期权产生了多么扭曲的影响（难以借贷、扭曲零售对价外评级的需求）。</blockquote></p><p>Directional Butterflies vs Outright Puts</p><p><blockquote>定向蝶形与直接看跌期权</blockquote></p><p>High volatility also affects bearish options trades. One of the counter-intuitive aspects of a high volatility stock like Gamestop is that its implied volatility can go up as the stock goes higher and down as the stock goes lower. This is the opposite of how we generally think about volatility. Therefore, buying outright puts carries a risk of collapsing volatility (and therefore collapsing premiums) as the stock goes lower. So, even though the stock is moving in the intended direction, as an option holder you may not be realizing the gains expected.</p><p><blockquote>高波动性也会影响看跌期权交易。像游戏驿站这样的高波动性股票的一个反直觉的方面是，其隐含波动率可能会随着股票走高而上升，随着股票走低而下降。这与我们通常对波动性的看法相反。因此，随着股票走低，直接买入看跌期权会带来波动性崩溃（从而导致溢价崩溃）的风险。因此，即使股票正朝着预期的方向移动，作为期权持有者，您可能无法实现预期的收益。</blockquote></p><p>One way to counter high implied volatility in a stock, especially when having a bearish view, is to be a net seller of option premium. To sell to bullish option traders rather than join bearish option traders. Traditionally that might take the form of selling a Credit Call Spread. But in GME's case that means buying the (expensive) upper strike Call at a higher volatility than the Call that is closer to the money (as described above).</p><p><blockquote>应对股票高隐含波动率的一种方法（尤其是在持有看跌观点时）是成为期权溢价的净卖家。向看涨期权交易者出售，而不是加入看跌期权交易者。传统上，这可能采取出售信贷看涨期权利差的形式。但在GME的情况下，这意味着以比更接近资金的看涨期权更高的波动性购买（昂贵的）上行看涨期权（如上所述）。</blockquote></p><p>So, one option strategy that can be considered by traders is using a Butterfly. An option trade that is more typically associated with a neutral trading view, but here adapted to actually create a targeted (bearish) directional view.</p><p><blockquote>因此，交易者可以考虑的一种期权策略是使用蝴蝶。期权交易通常与中性交易观点相关，但在这里适用于实际创建目标（看跌）方向观点。</blockquote></p><p>Here, as an example, is a Butterfly with its center strikes focused at $80 in the stock, with a March 19th expiry:</p><p><blockquote>举个例子，这里有一只蝴蝶，其中心罢工集中在80美元的股票上，到期日为3月19日：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7cb8f9b0570e854f662f3031e50ca91\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"740\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p>This 130/80/30 butterfly has breakevens of 115 and 45, meaning the trade is profitable if the stock is between those two prices at March 19th expiry… with a max gain occurring if the stock is at or near $80. It has the additional dynamic of being short premium, and if the stock stays within its range would see mark to market gains if implied volatility compressed.</p><p><blockquote>这只130/80/30蝴蝶的盈亏平衡点为115和45，这意味着如果股票在3月19日到期时处于这两个价格之间，交易是有利可图的……如果股票处于或接近80美元，则会出现最大收益。它具有空头溢价的额外动力，如果股票保持在其范围内，如果隐含波动率被压缩，则按市值计算将会上涨。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1614334070724","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Gamestop And High Volatility Options<blockquote>游戏驿站和高波动性期权</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGamestop And High Volatility Options<blockquote>游戏驿站和高波动性期权</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Options AI: Learn</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-26 18:12</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Gamestop Corp.</b>&nbsp;shares have soared the past few days with the stock up nearly 200% at one point from last week (but still down significantly from recent short squeeze highs). We'll look at the unique situations that arise in the options of a highly volatile stock like Gamestop and a few things that might be considered before trading options.</p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站公司。</b>过去几天股价飙升，较上周一度上涨近200%（但仍较近期轧空高点大幅下跌）。我们将看看像游戏驿站这样波动性很大的股票的期权中出现的独特情况，以及在交易期权之前可能需要考虑的一些事情。</blockquote></p><p><hr><b>Gamestop: The Expected Move</b></p><p><blockquote><hr/><b>游戏驿站：预期的举动</b></blockquote></p><p>First, a look at how options are pricing upcoming moves. Here's theOptions AIexpected move chart for Gamestop, with a nearly 30% move being priced into this Friday's close. And a roughly 80% move being priced for the next month. A month that includes an earnings event (unconfirmed):</p><p><blockquote>首先，看看期权如何为即将到来的走势定价。这是游戏驿站的期权AI预期走势图，预计本周五收盘价将出现近30%的走势。下个月的价格将上涨大约80%。包含盈利事件的月份（未经确认）：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e35872724d8db887fa09d822d622ac8c\" tg-width=\"568\" tg-height=\"817\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Gamestop: Call Spreads vs Outright Calls</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站：看涨期权价差与彻底的评级</blockquote></p><p>Using March 19th as an expiry we first looks at bullish spreads, and compare directly to outright calls. With a stock as volatile as Gamestop, calls can be expensive. Because of that, many traders resort to buying far out of the money calls. That demand for upside calls increases volatility in those calls, making them expensive relative to at-the-money calls – a phenomenon known as skew. However, for those that are bullish, this may create an opportunity to utilize spreads rather than buying an outright call. Let's see how.</p><p><blockquote>以3月19日为到期日，我们首先查看看涨利差，并直接与直接评级进行比较。像游戏驿站这样不稳定的股票，评级的股价可能会很昂贵。正因为如此，许多交易者诉诸远超本钱的评级买入。对上行评级的需求增加了这些评级的波动性，使其相对于平价评级的价格昂贵——这种现象被称为倾斜。然而，对于那些看涨的人来说，这可能会创造一个利用价差而不是直接购买看涨期权的机会。让我们看看怎么做。</blockquote></p><p>Here we'll focus on one alternative – using debit spreads to lower the overall cost of a directional trade (while potentially improving the probability of profit of the trade itself by lowering the breakeven level). It does so by selling those relatively expensive out-the-money Calls to help finance the purchase of a nearer to at-the-money Call.</p><p><blockquote>在这里，我们将重点关注一种替代方案——使用借方利差来降低定向交易的总体成本（同时通过降低盈亏平衡水平来提高交易本身的盈利概率）。它通过出售那些相对昂贵的价外评级来帮助购买更接近价外的看涨期权来实现这一目标。</blockquote></p><p>With Gamestop near $105, the&nbsp;<b>March 19th 110/190 Debit Call Spread</b>&nbsp;is roughly $15 and targets the bullish expected move for March 19th. The debit call spread would need the stock to be above $125 on March 19th to be profitable.</p><p><blockquote>随着游戏驿站接近105美元，<b>3月19日110/190借方看涨期权利差</b>大约为15美元，目标是3月19日的看涨预期走势。借方看涨期权利差需要该股在3月19日高于125美元才能盈利。</blockquote></p><p>As a comparison, the GME March 19th 200 calls are trading $29. That's nearly twice the cost for a 200 call that needs the stock above $229 by March 19th… versus a call spread, that needs the stock above $125. Here's a side by side comparison of those two trades on the Options AI chart. First, the 200 call:</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，GME 3月19日200评级的交易价格为29美元。这几乎是200美元看涨期权的成本的两倍，需要股票在3月19日之前高于229美元……而看涨期权的价差需要股票高于125美元。以下是期权人工智能图表上这两种交易的并排比较。一、200家看涨期权：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b044a22bfbe5a8326f9aa3ebf56ed4fd\" tg-width=\"570\" tg-height=\"740\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>And next, the 145/200 debit call spread:</p><p><blockquote>接下来，145/200借方看涨期权利差：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cdf8545f07da48f770ef81cb4e5ac53\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"792\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>As you can see, not only is the call spread less expensive, the point at which is becomes profitable to the upside is much closer to where the stock is currently trading. (As indicated by the grey price of the breakeven.)</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，看涨期权价差不仅更便宜，而且上涨盈利的点也更接近股票当前的交易价格。（如盈亏平衡的灰色价格所示。）</blockquote></p><p>A note on probability of profit. The probability of profit displayed on these trades is based on the delta being assigned to the breakeven of the trade. The fact that a 200 call in a $105 stock is trading near 50 deltas shows just how distorting an effect Gamestop volatility is having on its options (hard to borrow, skew, retail demand for out-of-the-money calls).</p><p><blockquote>关于盈利概率的一个注记。这些交易显示的利润概率基于分配给交易盈亏平衡的delta。105美元股票的200看涨期权交易价格接近50 deltas，这一事实表明游戏驿站波动对其期权产生了多么扭曲的影响（难以借贷、扭曲零售对价外评级的需求）。</blockquote></p><p>Directional Butterflies vs Outright Puts</p><p><blockquote>定向蝶形与直接看跌期权</blockquote></p><p>High volatility also affects bearish options trades. One of the counter-intuitive aspects of a high volatility stock like Gamestop is that its implied volatility can go up as the stock goes higher and down as the stock goes lower. This is the opposite of how we generally think about volatility. Therefore, buying outright puts carries a risk of collapsing volatility (and therefore collapsing premiums) as the stock goes lower. So, even though the stock is moving in the intended direction, as an option holder you may not be realizing the gains expected.</p><p><blockquote>高波动性也会影响看跌期权交易。像游戏驿站这样的高波动性股票的一个反直觉的方面是，其隐含波动率可能会随着股票走高而上升，随着股票走低而下降。这与我们通常对波动性的看法相反。因此，随着股票走低，直接买入看跌期权会带来波动性崩溃（从而导致溢价崩溃）的风险。因此，即使股票正朝着预期的方向移动，作为期权持有者，您可能无法实现预期的收益。</blockquote></p><p>One way to counter high implied volatility in a stock, especially when having a bearish view, is to be a net seller of option premium. To sell to bullish option traders rather than join bearish option traders. Traditionally that might take the form of selling a Credit Call Spread. But in GME's case that means buying the (expensive) upper strike Call at a higher volatility than the Call that is closer to the money (as described above).</p><p><blockquote>应对股票高隐含波动率的一种方法（尤其是在持有看跌观点时）是成为期权溢价的净卖家。向看涨期权交易者出售，而不是加入看跌期权交易者。传统上，这可能采取出售信贷看涨期权利差的形式。但在GME的情况下，这意味着以比更接近资金的看涨期权更高的波动性购买（昂贵的）上行看涨期权（如上所述）。</blockquote></p><p>So, one option strategy that can be considered by traders is using a Butterfly. An option trade that is more typically associated with a neutral trading view, but here adapted to actually create a targeted (bearish) directional view.</p><p><blockquote>因此，交易者可以考虑的一种期权策略是使用蝴蝶。期权交易通常与中性交易观点相关，但在这里适用于实际创建目标（看跌）方向观点。</blockquote></p><p>Here, as an example, is a Butterfly with its center strikes focused at $80 in the stock, with a March 19th expiry:</p><p><blockquote>举个例子，这里有一只蝴蝶，其中心罢工集中在80美元的股票上，到期日为3月19日：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7cb8f9b0570e854f662f3031e50ca91\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"740\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p>This 130/80/30 butterfly has breakevens of 115 and 45, meaning the trade is profitable if the stock is between those two prices at March 19th expiry… with a max gain occurring if the stock is at or near $80. It has the additional dynamic of being short premium, and if the stock stays within its range would see mark to market gains if implied volatility compressed.</p><p><blockquote>这只130/80/30蝴蝶的盈亏平衡点为115和45，这意味着如果股票在3月19日到期时处于这两个价格之间，交易是有利可图的……如果股票处于或接近80美元，则会出现最大收益。它具有空头溢价的额外动力，如果股票保持在其范围内，如果隐含波动率被压缩，则按市值计算将会上涨。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://learn.optionsai.com/gamestop-and-high-volatility-options/\">Options AI: Learn</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://learn.optionsai.com/gamestop-and-high-volatility-options/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146313632","content_text":"Gamestop Corp. shares have soared the past few days with the stock up nearly 200% at one point from last week (but still down significantly from recent short squeeze highs). We'll look at the unique situations that arise in the options of a highly volatile stock like Gamestop and a few things that might be considered before trading options.Gamestop: The Expected MoveFirst, a look at how options are pricing upcoming moves. Here's theOptions AIexpected move chart for Gamestop, with a nearly 30% move being priced into this Friday's close. And a roughly 80% move being priced for the next month. A month that includes an earnings event (unconfirmed):Gamestop: Call Spreads vs Outright CallsUsing March 19th as an expiry we first looks at bullish spreads, and compare directly to outright calls. With a stock as volatile as Gamestop, calls can be expensive. Because of that, many traders resort to buying far out of the money calls. That demand for upside calls increases volatility in those calls, making them expensive relative to at-the-money calls – a phenomenon known as skew. However, for those that are bullish, this may create an opportunity to utilize spreads rather than buying an outright call. Let's see how.Here we'll focus on one alternative – using debit spreads to lower the overall cost of a directional trade (while potentially improving the probability of profit of the trade itself by lowering the breakeven level). It does so by selling those relatively expensive out-the-money Calls to help finance the purchase of a nearer to at-the-money Call.With Gamestop near $105, the March 19th 110/190 Debit Call Spread is roughly $15 and targets the bullish expected move for March 19th. The debit call spread would need the stock to be above $125 on March 19th to be profitable.As a comparison, the GME March 19th 200 calls are trading $29. That's nearly twice the cost for a 200 call that needs the stock above $229 by March 19th… versus a call spread, that needs the stock above $125. Here's a side by side comparison of those two trades on the Options AI chart. First, the 200 call:And next, the 145/200 debit call spread:As you can see, not only is the call spread less expensive, the point at which is becomes profitable to the upside is much closer to where the stock is currently trading. (As indicated by the grey price of the breakeven.)A note on probability of profit. The probability of profit displayed on these trades is based on the delta being assigned to the breakeven of the trade. The fact that a 200 call in a $105 stock is trading near 50 deltas shows just how distorting an effect Gamestop volatility is having on its options (hard to borrow, skew, retail demand for out-of-the-money calls).Directional Butterflies vs Outright PutsHigh volatility also affects bearish options trades. One of the counter-intuitive aspects of a high volatility stock like Gamestop is that its implied volatility can go up as the stock goes higher and down as the stock goes lower. This is the opposite of how we generally think about volatility. Therefore, buying outright puts carries a risk of collapsing volatility (and therefore collapsing premiums) as the stock goes lower. So, even though the stock is moving in the intended direction, as an option holder you may not be realizing the gains expected.One way to counter high implied volatility in a stock, especially when having a bearish view, is to be a net seller of option premium. To sell to bullish option traders rather than join bearish option traders. Traditionally that might take the form of selling a Credit Call Spread. But in GME's case that means buying the (expensive) upper strike Call at a higher volatility than the Call that is closer to the money (as described above).So, one option strategy that can be considered by traders is using a Butterfly. An option trade that is more typically associated with a neutral trading view, but here adapted to actually create a targeted (bearish) directional view.Here, as an example, is a Butterfly with its center strikes focused at $80 in the stock, with a March 19th expiry:This 130/80/30 butterfly has breakevens of 115 and 45, meaning the trade is profitable if the stock is between those two prices at March 19th expiry… with a max gain occurring if the stock is at or near $80. It has the additional dynamic of being short premium, and if the stock stays within its range would see mark to market gains if implied volatility compressed.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3065,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363606459,"gmtCreate":1614130582571,"gmtModify":1634551065601,"author":{"id":"3555027716709439","authorId":"3555027716709439","name":"RLST","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b7bffaca05b5c5fc2858ada8443840","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555027716709439","authorIdStr":"3555027716709439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363606459","repostId":"2113801076","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1719,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":369012890,"gmtCreate":1613987988810,"gmtModify":1634551649315,"author":{"id":"3555027716709439","authorId":"3555027716709439","name":"RLST","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b7bffaca05b5c5fc2858ada8443840","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555027716709439","authorIdStr":"3555027716709439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/369012890","repostId":"1106666176","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":509,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382659796,"gmtCreate":1613444369015,"gmtModify":1634553661110,"author":{"id":"3555027716709439","authorId":"3555027716709439","name":"RLST","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b7bffaca05b5c5fc2858ada8443840","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555027716709439","authorIdStr":"3555027716709439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmmmm&nbsp;","listText":"Hmmmm&nbsp;","text":"Hmmmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382659796","repostId":"1170147354","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":458,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":389560569,"gmtCreate":1612788676451,"gmtModify":1703765010686,"author":{"id":"3555027716709439","authorId":"3555027716709439","name":"RLST","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b7bffaca05b5c5fc2858ada8443840","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555027716709439","authorIdStr":"3555027716709439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"True&nbsp;","listText":"True&nbsp;","text":"True","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389560569","repostId":"1195153829","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195153829","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612781502,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195153829?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-08 18:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here’s What the GameStop Affair Has Taught Us<blockquote>以下是游戏驿站事件教给我们的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195153829","media":"Barrons","summary":"This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers","content":"<p><i>This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers and has been edited by Barron’s.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>这篇评论最近由基金经理、研究公司和市场时事通讯作者发表，并由《巴伦周刊》编辑。</i></blockquote></p><p> What GameStop Taught Us</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站教给我们的</blockquote></p><p> <i>The Weekly Speculator</i></p><p><blockquote><i>每周投机者</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Marketfield Asset Management</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Marketfield资产管理</i></blockquote></p><p> marketfield.com</p><p><blockquote>marketfield.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 4: After all is said and done, one of the most lasting effects of theGameStop(ticker: GME) episode will be to educate many market participants about the key role and ultimate power held by the clearing institution, the Depository Trust Company. One of the stranger aspects of the affair has been the attempt to paint it as some form of moral crusade, or an opportunity for the “little guy” to get even with Wall Street. The truth is that some large investors lost a great deal of money, while others were well rewarded, just as some small investors will have reaped life-changing sums while others will have lost funds that may prove to be equally impactful. In this sense, the market is a meritocracy, which isn’t quite the same as saying that it is always fair in delivering outcomes.</p><p><blockquote>2月4日：总而言之，GameStop（股票代码：GME）事件最持久的影响之一将是让许多市场参与者了解清算机构（存托信托公司）所扮演的关键角色和最终权力。这件事更奇怪的一面是，有人试图将其描绘成某种形式的道德讨伐，或者是“小人物”报复华尔街的机会。事实是，一些大投资者损失了大量资金，而另一些投资者则获得了丰厚的回报，就像一些小投资者将获得改变生活的资金，而另一些投资者将损失可能同样具有影响力的资金一样。从这个意义上说，市场是一个精英统治，这并不等同于说它在提供结果方面总是公平的。</blockquote></p><p> What is also clear is that late January saw a very significant degrossing of levered hedge-fund investors, without causing a deep correction in the equity market. The S&amp;P 500 essentially respected support at the 50-day moving average, and didn’t need to move down to 3600, which we had set as a “worst case” target. The Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, and MSCI Emerging Markets Index didn’t need to touch their corresponding trend support, and all three indexes managed to generate a positive return in January, unlike the S&amp;P 500, which registered a small loss. The subsequent bounce has been rapid and broad, as would be expected from a catalyst that was both technical and ephemeral in nature.</p><p><blockquote>同样清楚的是，1月下旬，杠杆对冲基金投资者的资金大幅减少，但并未导致股市大幅调整。标普500基本上尊重50日均线的支撑，不需要跌至我们设定的“最坏情况”目标3600点。纳斯达克100指数、Russell 2000指数和MSCI新兴市场指数不需要触及相应的趋势支撑，这三个指数在1月份都成功产生了正回报，不像标普500出现了小幅亏损。随后的反弹迅速而广泛，正如技术性和短暂性催化剂所预期的那样。</blockquote></p><p> That it is not a wholly positive or inconsequential affair. The long bull market is now showing signs of developing into a historic mania. This doesn’t mean that a market peak is imminent, but the normative process—whereby what is “appropriate” is ultimately influenced by extremes—means that the levels of risk being taken by the average investor are probably significantly higher than they were pre-Covid.</p><p><blockquote>这不是一件完全积极或无关紧要的事情。漫长的牛市现在有发展成历史性狂热的迹象。这并不意味着市场峰值即将到来，但规范过程——什么是“适当的”最终会受到极端情况的影响——意味着普通投资者承担的风险水平可能明显高于Covid之前。</blockquote></p><p> —Michael Shaoul, Timothy Brackett</p><p><blockquote>——迈克尔·绍尔、蒂莫西·布莱凯特</blockquote></p><p> Heigh-Ho Silver!</p><p><blockquote>嗨-嗬银！</blockquote></p><p> <i>The Aden Forecast Weekly Update</i></p><p><blockquote><i>亚丁天气预报每周更新</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>The Aden Forecast</i></p><p><blockquote><i>亚丁天气预报</i></blockquote></p><p> adenforecast.com</p><p><blockquote>adenforecast.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 4: Silver caught on fire by zipping up to the August highs near $30 on Monday during the Reddit buying frenzy. Silver was strong anyway, and it’s been holding up well, so whoever pegged silver knew what they were doing. Silver shares also got a big boost upward, and while they have since calmed down, it looks like volatility will stay with us. Silver has been holding above its 15-week moving average since December, and it’ll remain strong by staying above it at $25. The next milestone to surpass is the $30 level, the highs for this bull market. If clearly broken, another leg up will be underway. Keep your silver and silver share positions.</p><p><blockquote>2月4日：周一，在Reddit的购买狂潮中，白银飙升至接近30美元的8月份高点。无论如何，白银都很坚挺，而且一直保持良好，所以无论谁盯住白银，都知道他们在做什么。白银股也大幅上涨，虽然此后有所平静，但波动性似乎仍将持续。自12月以来，白银一直保持在15周移动平均线上方，并将保持在25美元上方。下一个要超越的里程碑是30美元水平，这是本轮牛市的高点。如果明显被打破，另一条腿将会上升。保持你的白银和白银份额头寸。</blockquote></p><p> —Mary Anne and Pamela Aden</p><p><blockquote>——玛丽·安妮和帕梅拉·亚丁</blockquote></p><p> How to Play Oil’s Recent Rally</p><p><blockquote>如何玩转石油近期的反弹</blockquote></p><p> <i>Daily Insights</i></p><p><blockquote><i>每日洞察</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>BCA Research</i></p><p><blockquote><i>BCA研究</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>bcaresearch.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>bcaresearch.com</i></blockquote></p><p> Feb 4: The recent oil rally will have consequences for asset prices beyond the energy market. While higher oil prices benefit oil exporters, they hurt the economies of oil importers, often with a lag.</p><p><blockquote>2月4日：最近的油价上涨将对能源市场以外的资产价格产生影响。虽然油价上涨有利于石油出口国，但也损害了石油进口国的经济，而且往往有滞后性。</blockquote></p><p> A great example of these dynamics is China. The Chinese economy is a large oil importer; hence, rising oil prices act as a tax on Chinese growth. Moreover, Chinese A shares massively overweight tech stocks, which receive no benefit from higher energy prices. In fact, over the past four years, increasing Brent prices reliably lead to a decline in on-shore domestic markets by roughly three months. The current setup is reminiscent of early 2018. Back then, Chinese A shares had been rallying for a few months after oil prices had started to rally. Ultimately, a deceleration in Chinese growth and cautious policy making from Beijing resulted in a powerful selloff of Chinese equities. Today, Chinese growth is once again decelerating and Beijing is conducting some significant regulatory tightening, while the People’s Bank of China is draining liquidity. Thus, a significant correction in Chinese shares is likely this spring.</p><p><blockquote>这些动态的一个很好的例子是中国。中国经济是石油进口大国；因此，油价上涨是对中国经济增长的一种征税。此外，中国A股大量持有跑赢大盘科技股，这些股没有从能源价格上涨中受益。事实上，在过去四年中，布伦特原油价格上涨确实会导致国内市场在岸价格下跌约三个月。目前的设置让人想起2018年初。当时，在油价开始上涨后，中国A股已经上涨了几个月。最终，中国经济增长放缓和北京谨慎的政策制定导致了中国股市的大幅抛售。如今，中国经济增长再次减速，北京正在进行一些重大监管收紧，而中国人民银行正在抽干流动性。因此，今年春天中国股市可能会出现大幅调整。</blockquote></p><p> A lower-octane strategy to play these dynamics is to go long United Kingdom equities relative to Germany’s while espousing the implicit currency exposure. German equities are extremely underweight energy, and Germany imports its entire oil consumption. Meanwhile, the U.K. benchmark is replete with energy stocks and the U.K. remains an oil producer, even if it imports some of its oil (rising Brent represents a comparatively smaller tax on the U.K. economy). As a side benefit, the pound is very cheap against the euro and the U.K.’s vaccination campaign is massively ahead of the eurozone’s, which could result in earlier economic dividends north of the Channel and hurt the euro/pound in the process.</p><p><blockquote>利用这些动态的低辛烷值策略是相对于德国股市做多英国股市，同时支持隐性货币敞口。德国股票非常跑输大盘能源，德国的石油消费全部进口。与此同时，英国基准充满了能源股，英国仍然是石油生产国，即使它进口部分石油（布伦特原油价格上涨对英国经济的税收相对较小）。作为一个附带好处，英镑兑欧元非常便宜，而且英国的疫苗接种活动远远领先于欧元区，这可能会导致英吉利海峡以北更早的经济红利，并在此过程中损害欧元/英镑。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> —Mathieu Savary and Team</p><p><blockquote>——Mathieu Savary和团队</blockquote></p><p> High-Yield Opportunities</p><p><blockquote>高收益机会</blockquote></p><p> <i>Carret Credit Insight</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Carret信用洞察</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Carret Asset Mangaement</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Carret资产管理</i></blockquote></p><p> carret.com</p><p><blockquote>carret.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 3: At year-end 2020, the iBoxx High-Yield Index yielded 4.23%, an all-time low. Spreads also registered record tightness. Low yields aren’t a surprise as investors globally reach for income. The Federal Reserve has backstopped the “fallen angels,” allowing many high-yield (HY) companies to refinance at ever-lower rates and extend upcoming maturities for another day. Strong equity markets are forecasting an earnings rebound, and the vaccines will bring brighter days soon. We continue to find attractive values in the short/intermediate portion of the high-quality HY market.</p><p><blockquote>2月3日：2020年底，iBoxx高收益指数收益率为4.23%，创历史新低。利差也创下历史新高。随着全球投资者寻求收入，低收益率并不令人意外。美联储支持“堕落天使”，允许许多高收益（HY）公司以更低的利率进行再融资，并将即将到期的期限延长一天。强劲的股市预测盈利将反弹，疫苗将很快带来光明的日子。我们继续在高质量HY市场的短期/中期部分发现有吸引力的价值。</blockquote></p><p> We want to share a recent academic study with you regarding the risk and returns in the HY bond market: George Mason Universityrecently publisheda report on HY bond-fund returns and volatility relative to equities (S&amp;P 500). Since 1990, the average HY bond fund has delivered average annualized returns of 7.1% with a volatility of 7.7%. Over the same time period, the S&amp;P 500 delivered an average annualized return of 7.8%, but with almost double the volatility of 14.5%. The conclusion: HY bonds have paid total returns near those of the U.S. stock market with half of the volatility. We believe the HY market will offer competitive returns in the decade ahead, as equity valuations have risen and Treasury yields have plummeted. Our ability to utilize busted convertibles, preferreds, and special-situation income investments enhances our cash-flow opportunities.</p><p><blockquote>我们想与您分享一项关于HY债券市场风险和回报的最新学术研究：George Mason University最近发布了一份关于HY债券基金回报和相对于股票波动性的报告（标普500）。自1990年以来，HY债券基金的平均年化回报率为7.1%，波动率为7.7%。同期，标普500的平均年化回报率为7.8%，但波动性几乎是14.5%的两倍。结论是：HY债券的总回报接近美国股市，而波动性只有美国股市的一半。我们相信，随着股票估值上升和国债收益率暴跌，HY市场将在未来十年提供有竞争力的回报。我们利用破产的可转换债券、优先股和特殊情况收入投资的能力增强了我们的现金流机会。</blockquote></p><p> —Jason R. Graybill, Neil D. Klein</p><p><blockquote>——杰森·R·格雷比尔、尼尔·D·克莱因</blockquote></p><p> Emerging Markets Blast Off</p><p><blockquote>新兴市场起飞</blockquote></p><p> <i>PCM Report</i></p><p><blockquote><i>PCM报告</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Peak Capital Management</i></p><p><blockquote><i>匹克资本管理</i></blockquote></p><p> pcmstrategies.com</p><p><blockquote>pcmstrategies.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 1: So far, 2021 has been a good year for emerging-market equities. Year to date, theiShares MSCI Emerging Marketsexchange-traded fund (EEM) is higher by roughly 8%, compared to a gain of approximately 3% for theSPDR S&amp;P 500ETF (SPY). Ever since the financial crisis of 2008, emerging markets collectively have woefully lagged U.S. equities.</p><p><blockquote>2月1日：到目前为止，2021年对新兴市场股市来说是好年景。今年迄今为止，iShares MSCI新兴市场交易所交易基金(EEM)上涨了约8%，而SPDR S&amp;P 500ETF（SPDR标普500指数ETF）的涨幅约为3%。自2008年金融危机以来，新兴市场整体表现严重落后于美国股市。</blockquote></p><p> What could propel the asset class higher in 20201 and beyond? In the long term, the likely catalyst is demographics. Developed markets such as the U.S. and Europe have aging populations, which could suggest lower productivity and gross-domestic-product growth over the next decade compared to emerging-market economies.</p><p><blockquote>什么可以推动该资产类别在20201年及以后走高？从长远来看，可能的催化剂是人口统计。美国和欧洲等发达市场人口老龄化，这可能意味着与新兴市场经济体相比，未来十年的生产率和国内生产总值增长可能会较低。</blockquote></p><p> In its most recent capital-markets report, JPMorgan projected GDP growth across emerging markets to be 3.9% in 2021, compared to 1.6% across developed markets. The report suggests China and India will drive GDP growth, and emerging markets’ productivity and human capital will gradually converge to developed-market levels.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通在其最新的资本市场报告中预计，2021年新兴市场的GDP增长率为3.9%，而发达市场为1.6%。报告显示，中国和印度将推动GDP增长，新兴市场的生产率和人力资本将逐渐向发达市场水平趋同。</blockquote></p><p> —Clint Pekrul</p><p><blockquote>-克林特·佩克鲁尔</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here’s What the GameStop Affair Has Taught Us<blockquote>以下是游戏驿站事件教给我们的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere’s What the GameStop Affair Has Taught Us<blockquote>以下是游戏驿站事件教给我们的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-08 18:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i>This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers and has been edited by Barron’s.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>这篇评论最近由基金经理、研究公司和市场时事通讯作者发表，并由《巴伦周刊》编辑。</i></blockquote></p><p> What GameStop Taught Us</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站教给我们的</blockquote></p><p> <i>The Weekly Speculator</i></p><p><blockquote><i>每周投机者</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Marketfield Asset Management</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Marketfield资产管理</i></blockquote></p><p> marketfield.com</p><p><blockquote>marketfield.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 4: After all is said and done, one of the most lasting effects of theGameStop(ticker: GME) episode will be to educate many market participants about the key role and ultimate power held by the clearing institution, the Depository Trust Company. One of the stranger aspects of the affair has been the attempt to paint it as some form of moral crusade, or an opportunity for the “little guy” to get even with Wall Street. The truth is that some large investors lost a great deal of money, while others were well rewarded, just as some small investors will have reaped life-changing sums while others will have lost funds that may prove to be equally impactful. In this sense, the market is a meritocracy, which isn’t quite the same as saying that it is always fair in delivering outcomes.</p><p><blockquote>2月4日：总而言之，GameStop（股票代码：GME）事件最持久的影响之一将是让许多市场参与者了解清算机构（存托信托公司）所扮演的关键角色和最终权力。这件事更奇怪的一面是，有人试图将其描绘成某种形式的道德讨伐，或者是“小人物”报复华尔街的机会。事实是，一些大投资者损失了大量资金，而另一些投资者则获得了丰厚的回报，就像一些小投资者将获得改变生活的资金，而另一些投资者将损失可能同样具有影响力的资金一样。从这个意义上说，市场是一个精英统治，这并不等同于说它在提供结果方面总是公平的。</blockquote></p><p> What is also clear is that late January saw a very significant degrossing of levered hedge-fund investors, without causing a deep correction in the equity market. The S&amp;P 500 essentially respected support at the 50-day moving average, and didn’t need to move down to 3600, which we had set as a “worst case” target. The Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, and MSCI Emerging Markets Index didn’t need to touch their corresponding trend support, and all three indexes managed to generate a positive return in January, unlike the S&amp;P 500, which registered a small loss. The subsequent bounce has been rapid and broad, as would be expected from a catalyst that was both technical and ephemeral in nature.</p><p><blockquote>同样清楚的是，1月下旬，杠杆对冲基金投资者的资金大幅减少，但并未导致股市大幅调整。标普500基本上尊重50日均线的支撑，不需要跌至我们设定的“最坏情况”目标3600点。纳斯达克100指数、Russell 2000指数和MSCI新兴市场指数不需要触及相应的趋势支撑，这三个指数在1月份都成功产生了正回报，不像标普500出现了小幅亏损。随后的反弹迅速而广泛，正如技术性和短暂性催化剂所预期的那样。</blockquote></p><p> That it is not a wholly positive or inconsequential affair. The long bull market is now showing signs of developing into a historic mania. This doesn’t mean that a market peak is imminent, but the normative process—whereby what is “appropriate” is ultimately influenced by extremes—means that the levels of risk being taken by the average investor are probably significantly higher than they were pre-Covid.</p><p><blockquote>这不是一件完全积极或无关紧要的事情。漫长的牛市现在有发展成历史性狂热的迹象。这并不意味着市场峰值即将到来，但规范过程——什么是“适当的”最终会受到极端情况的影响——意味着普通投资者承担的风险水平可能明显高于Covid之前。</blockquote></p><p> —Michael Shaoul, Timothy Brackett</p><p><blockquote>——迈克尔·绍尔、蒂莫西·布莱凯特</blockquote></p><p> Heigh-Ho Silver!</p><p><blockquote>嗨-嗬银！</blockquote></p><p> <i>The Aden Forecast Weekly Update</i></p><p><blockquote><i>亚丁天气预报每周更新</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>The Aden Forecast</i></p><p><blockquote><i>亚丁天气预报</i></blockquote></p><p> adenforecast.com</p><p><blockquote>adenforecast.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 4: Silver caught on fire by zipping up to the August highs near $30 on Monday during the Reddit buying frenzy. Silver was strong anyway, and it’s been holding up well, so whoever pegged silver knew what they were doing. Silver shares also got a big boost upward, and while they have since calmed down, it looks like volatility will stay with us. Silver has been holding above its 15-week moving average since December, and it’ll remain strong by staying above it at $25. The next milestone to surpass is the $30 level, the highs for this bull market. If clearly broken, another leg up will be underway. Keep your silver and silver share positions.</p><p><blockquote>2月4日：周一，在Reddit的购买狂潮中，白银飙升至接近30美元的8月份高点。无论如何，白银都很坚挺，而且一直保持良好，所以无论谁盯住白银，都知道他们在做什么。白银股也大幅上涨，虽然此后有所平静，但波动性似乎仍将持续。自12月以来，白银一直保持在15周移动平均线上方，并将保持在25美元上方。下一个要超越的里程碑是30美元水平，这是本轮牛市的高点。如果明显被打破，另一条腿将会上升。保持你的白银和白银份额头寸。</blockquote></p><p> —Mary Anne and Pamela Aden</p><p><blockquote>——玛丽·安妮和帕梅拉·亚丁</blockquote></p><p> How to Play Oil’s Recent Rally</p><p><blockquote>如何玩转石油近期的反弹</blockquote></p><p> <i>Daily Insights</i></p><p><blockquote><i>每日洞察</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>BCA Research</i></p><p><blockquote><i>BCA研究</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>bcaresearch.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>bcaresearch.com</i></blockquote></p><p> Feb 4: The recent oil rally will have consequences for asset prices beyond the energy market. While higher oil prices benefit oil exporters, they hurt the economies of oil importers, often with a lag.</p><p><blockquote>2月4日：最近的油价上涨将对能源市场以外的资产价格产生影响。虽然油价上涨有利于石油出口国，但也损害了石油进口国的经济，而且往往有滞后性。</blockquote></p><p> A great example of these dynamics is China. The Chinese economy is a large oil importer; hence, rising oil prices act as a tax on Chinese growth. Moreover, Chinese A shares massively overweight tech stocks, which receive no benefit from higher energy prices. In fact, over the past four years, increasing Brent prices reliably lead to a decline in on-shore domestic markets by roughly three months. The current setup is reminiscent of early 2018. Back then, Chinese A shares had been rallying for a few months after oil prices had started to rally. Ultimately, a deceleration in Chinese growth and cautious policy making from Beijing resulted in a powerful selloff of Chinese equities. Today, Chinese growth is once again decelerating and Beijing is conducting some significant regulatory tightening, while the People’s Bank of China is draining liquidity. Thus, a significant correction in Chinese shares is likely this spring.</p><p><blockquote>这些动态的一个很好的例子是中国。中国经济是石油进口大国；因此，油价上涨是对中国经济增长的一种征税。此外，中国A股大量持有跑赢大盘科技股，这些股没有从能源价格上涨中受益。事实上，在过去四年中，布伦特原油价格上涨确实会导致国内市场在岸价格下跌约三个月。目前的设置让人想起2018年初。当时，在油价开始上涨后，中国A股已经上涨了几个月。最终，中国经济增长放缓和北京谨慎的政策制定导致了中国股市的大幅抛售。如今，中国经济增长再次减速，北京正在进行一些重大监管收紧，而中国人民银行正在抽干流动性。因此，今年春天中国股市可能会出现大幅调整。</blockquote></p><p> A lower-octane strategy to play these dynamics is to go long United Kingdom equities relative to Germany’s while espousing the implicit currency exposure. German equities are extremely underweight energy, and Germany imports its entire oil consumption. Meanwhile, the U.K. benchmark is replete with energy stocks and the U.K. remains an oil producer, even if it imports some of its oil (rising Brent represents a comparatively smaller tax on the U.K. economy). As a side benefit, the pound is very cheap against the euro and the U.K.’s vaccination campaign is massively ahead of the eurozone’s, which could result in earlier economic dividends north of the Channel and hurt the euro/pound in the process.</p><p><blockquote>利用这些动态的低辛烷值策略是相对于德国股市做多英国股市，同时支持隐性货币敞口。德国股票非常跑输大盘能源，德国的石油消费全部进口。与此同时，英国基准充满了能源股，英国仍然是石油生产国，即使它进口部分石油（布伦特原油价格上涨对英国经济的税收相对较小）。作为一个附带好处，英镑兑欧元非常便宜，而且英国的疫苗接种活动远远领先于欧元区，这可能会导致英吉利海峡以北更早的经济红利，并在此过程中损害欧元/英镑。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> —Mathieu Savary and Team</p><p><blockquote>——Mathieu Savary和团队</blockquote></p><p> High-Yield Opportunities</p><p><blockquote>高收益机会</blockquote></p><p> <i>Carret Credit Insight</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Carret信用洞察</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Carret Asset Mangaement</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Carret资产管理</i></blockquote></p><p> carret.com</p><p><blockquote>carret.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 3: At year-end 2020, the iBoxx High-Yield Index yielded 4.23%, an all-time low. Spreads also registered record tightness. Low yields aren’t a surprise as investors globally reach for income. The Federal Reserve has backstopped the “fallen angels,” allowing many high-yield (HY) companies to refinance at ever-lower rates and extend upcoming maturities for another day. Strong equity markets are forecasting an earnings rebound, and the vaccines will bring brighter days soon. We continue to find attractive values in the short/intermediate portion of the high-quality HY market.</p><p><blockquote>2月3日：2020年底，iBoxx高收益指数收益率为4.23%，创历史新低。利差也创下历史新高。随着全球投资者寻求收入，低收益率并不令人意外。美联储支持“堕落天使”，允许许多高收益（HY）公司以更低的利率进行再融资，并将即将到期的期限延长一天。强劲的股市预测盈利将反弹，疫苗将很快带来光明的日子。我们继续在高质量HY市场的短期/中期部分发现有吸引力的价值。</blockquote></p><p> We want to share a recent academic study with you regarding the risk and returns in the HY bond market: George Mason Universityrecently publisheda report on HY bond-fund returns and volatility relative to equities (S&amp;P 500). Since 1990, the average HY bond fund has delivered average annualized returns of 7.1% with a volatility of 7.7%. Over the same time period, the S&amp;P 500 delivered an average annualized return of 7.8%, but with almost double the volatility of 14.5%. The conclusion: HY bonds have paid total returns near those of the U.S. stock market with half of the volatility. We believe the HY market will offer competitive returns in the decade ahead, as equity valuations have risen and Treasury yields have plummeted. Our ability to utilize busted convertibles, preferreds, and special-situation income investments enhances our cash-flow opportunities.</p><p><blockquote>我们想与您分享一项关于HY债券市场风险和回报的最新学术研究：George Mason University最近发布了一份关于HY债券基金回报和相对于股票波动性的报告（标普500）。自1990年以来，HY债券基金的平均年化回报率为7.1%，波动率为7.7%。同期，标普500的平均年化回报率为7.8%，但波动性几乎是14.5%的两倍。结论是：HY债券的总回报接近美国股市，而波动性只有美国股市的一半。我们相信，随着股票估值上升和国债收益率暴跌，HY市场将在未来十年提供有竞争力的回报。我们利用破产的可转换债券、优先股和特殊情况收入投资的能力增强了我们的现金流机会。</blockquote></p><p> —Jason R. Graybill, Neil D. Klein</p><p><blockquote>——杰森·R·格雷比尔、尼尔·D·克莱因</blockquote></p><p> Emerging Markets Blast Off</p><p><blockquote>新兴市场起飞</blockquote></p><p> <i>PCM Report</i></p><p><blockquote><i>PCM报告</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Peak Capital Management</i></p><p><blockquote><i>匹克资本管理</i></blockquote></p><p> pcmstrategies.com</p><p><blockquote>pcmstrategies.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 1: So far, 2021 has been a good year for emerging-market equities. Year to date, theiShares MSCI Emerging Marketsexchange-traded fund (EEM) is higher by roughly 8%, compared to a gain of approximately 3% for theSPDR S&amp;P 500ETF (SPY). Ever since the financial crisis of 2008, emerging markets collectively have woefully lagged U.S. equities.</p><p><blockquote>2月1日：到目前为止，2021年对新兴市场股市来说是好年景。今年迄今为止，iShares MSCI新兴市场交易所交易基金(EEM)上涨了约8%，而SPDR S&amp;P 500ETF（SPDR标普500指数ETF）的涨幅约为3%。自2008年金融危机以来，新兴市场整体表现严重落后于美国股市。</blockquote></p><p> What could propel the asset class higher in 20201 and beyond? In the long term, the likely catalyst is demographics. Developed markets such as the U.S. and Europe have aging populations, which could suggest lower productivity and gross-domestic-product growth over the next decade compared to emerging-market economies.</p><p><blockquote>什么可以推动该资产类别在20201年及以后走高？从长远来看，可能的催化剂是人口统计。美国和欧洲等发达市场人口老龄化，这可能意味着与新兴市场经济体相比，未来十年的生产率和国内生产总值增长可能会较低。</blockquote></p><p> In its most recent capital-markets report, JPMorgan projected GDP growth across emerging markets to be 3.9% in 2021, compared to 1.6% across developed markets. The report suggests China and India will drive GDP growth, and emerging markets’ productivity and human capital will gradually converge to developed-market levels.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通在其最新的资本市场报告中预计，2021年新兴市场的GDP增长率为3.9%，而发达市场为1.6%。报告显示，中国和印度将推动GDP增长，新兴市场的生产率和人力资本将逐渐向发达市场水平趋同。</blockquote></p><p> —Clint Pekrul</p><p><blockquote>-克林特·佩克鲁尔</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-episode-offers-lessons-for-investors-51612572300?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","GME":"游戏驿站",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-episode-offers-lessons-for-investors-51612572300?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195153829","content_text":"This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers and has been edited by Barron’s.\nWhat GameStop Taught Us\nThe Weekly Speculator\nMarketfield Asset Management\nmarketfield.com\nFeb. 4: After all is said and done, one of the most lasting effects of theGameStop(ticker: GME) episode will be to educate many market participants about the key role and ultimate power held by the clearing institution, the Depository Trust Company. One of the stranger aspects of the affair has been the attempt to paint it as some form of moral crusade, or an opportunity for the “little guy” to get even with Wall Street. The truth is that some large investors lost a great deal of money, while others were well rewarded, just as some small investors will have reaped life-changing sums while others will have lost funds that may prove to be equally impactful. In this sense, the market is a meritocracy, which isn’t quite the same as saying that it is always fair in delivering outcomes.\nWhat is also clear is that late January saw a very significant degrossing of levered hedge-fund investors, without causing a deep correction in the equity market. The S&P 500 essentially respected support at the 50-day moving average, and didn’t need to move down to 3600, which we had set as a “worst case” target. The Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, and MSCI Emerging Markets Index didn’t need to touch their corresponding trend support, and all three indexes managed to generate a positive return in January, unlike the S&P 500, which registered a small loss. The subsequent bounce has been rapid and broad, as would be expected from a catalyst that was both technical and ephemeral in nature.\nThat it is not a wholly positive or inconsequential affair. The long bull market is now showing signs of developing into a historic mania. This doesn’t mean that a market peak is imminent, but the normative process—whereby what is “appropriate” is ultimately influenced by extremes—means that the levels of risk being taken by the average investor are probably significantly higher than they were pre-Covid.\n—Michael Shaoul, Timothy Brackett\nHeigh-Ho Silver!\nThe Aden Forecast Weekly Update\nThe Aden Forecast\nadenforecast.com\nFeb. 4: Silver caught on fire by zipping up to the August highs near $30 on Monday during the Reddit buying frenzy. Silver was strong anyway, and it’s been holding up well, so whoever pegged silver knew what they were doing. Silver shares also got a big boost upward, and while they have since calmed down, it looks like volatility will stay with us. Silver has been holding above its 15-week moving average since December, and it’ll remain strong by staying above it at $25. The next milestone to surpass is the $30 level, the highs for this bull market. If clearly broken, another leg up will be underway. Keep your silver and silver share positions.\n—Mary Anne and Pamela Aden\nHow to Play Oil’s Recent Rally\nDaily Insights\nBCA Research\nbcaresearch.com\nFeb 4: The recent oil rally will have consequences for asset prices beyond the energy market. While higher oil prices benefit oil exporters, they hurt the economies of oil importers, often with a lag.\nA great example of these dynamics is China. The Chinese economy is a large oil importer; hence, rising oil prices act as a tax on Chinese growth. Moreover, Chinese A shares massively overweight tech stocks, which receive no benefit from higher energy prices. In fact, over the past four years, increasing Brent prices reliably lead to a decline in on-shore domestic markets by roughly three months. The current setup is reminiscent of early 2018. Back then, Chinese A shares had been rallying for a few months after oil prices had started to rally. Ultimately, a deceleration in Chinese growth and cautious policy making from Beijing resulted in a powerful selloff of Chinese equities. Today, Chinese growth is once again decelerating and Beijing is conducting some significant regulatory tightening, while the People’s Bank of China is draining liquidity. Thus, a significant correction in Chinese shares is likely this spring.\nA lower-octane strategy to play these dynamics is to go long United Kingdom equities relative to Germany’s while espousing the implicit currency exposure. German equities are extremely underweight energy, and Germany imports its entire oil consumption. Meanwhile, the U.K. benchmark is replete with energy stocks and the U.K. remains an oil producer, even if it imports some of its oil (rising Brent represents a comparatively smaller tax on the U.K. economy). As a side benefit, the pound is very cheap against the euro and the U.K.’s vaccination campaign is massively ahead of the eurozone’s, which could result in earlier economic dividends north of the Channel and hurt the euro/pound in the process.\n—Mathieu Savary and Team\nHigh-Yield Opportunities\nCarret Credit Insight\nCarret Asset Mangaement\ncarret.com\nFeb. 3: At year-end 2020, the iBoxx High-Yield Index yielded 4.23%, an all-time low. Spreads also registered record tightness. Low yields aren’t a surprise as investors globally reach for income. The Federal Reserve has backstopped the “fallen angels,” allowing many high-yield (HY) companies to refinance at ever-lower rates and extend upcoming maturities for another day. Strong equity markets are forecasting an earnings rebound, and the vaccines will bring brighter days soon. We continue to find attractive values in the short/intermediate portion of the high-quality HY market.\nWe want to share a recent academic study with you regarding the risk and returns in the HY bond market: George Mason Universityrecently publisheda report on HY bond-fund returns and volatility relative to equities (S&P 500). Since 1990, the average HY bond fund has delivered average annualized returns of 7.1% with a volatility of 7.7%. Over the same time period, the S&P 500 delivered an average annualized return of 7.8%, but with almost double the volatility of 14.5%. The conclusion: HY bonds have paid total returns near those of the U.S. stock market with half of the volatility. We believe the HY market will offer competitive returns in the decade ahead, as equity valuations have risen and Treasury yields have plummeted. Our ability to utilize busted convertibles, preferreds, and special-situation income investments enhances our cash-flow opportunities.\n—Jason R. Graybill, Neil D. Klein\nEmerging Markets Blast Off\nPCM Report\nPeak Capital Management\npcmstrategies.com\nFeb. 1: So far, 2021 has been a good year for emerging-market equities. Year to date, theiShares MSCI Emerging Marketsexchange-traded fund (EEM) is higher by roughly 8%, compared to a gain of approximately 3% for theSPDR S&P 500ETF (SPY). Ever since the financial crisis of 2008, emerging markets collectively have woefully lagged U.S. equities.\nWhat could propel the asset class higher in 20201 and beyond? In the long term, the likely catalyst is demographics. Developed markets such as the U.S. and Europe have aging populations, which could suggest lower productivity and gross-domestic-product growth over the next decade compared to emerging-market economies.\nIn its most recent capital-markets report, JPMorgan projected GDP growth across emerging markets to be 3.9% in 2021, compared to 1.6% across developed markets. The report suggests China and India will drive GDP growth, and emerging markets’ productivity and human capital will gradually converge to developed-market levels.\n—Clint Pekrul","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"GME":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":560,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":389537911,"gmtCreate":1612786604433,"gmtModify":1703764981140,"author":{"id":"3555027716709439","authorId":"3555027716709439","name":"RLST","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b7bffaca05b5c5fc2858ada8443840","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555027716709439","authorIdStr":"3555027716709439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow&nbsp;","listText":"Wow&nbsp;","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389537911","repostId":"1193450954","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":707,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":380420377,"gmtCreate":1612576313099,"gmtModify":1703763779244,"author":{"id":"3555027716709439","authorId":"3555027716709439","name":"RLST","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b7bffaca05b5c5fc2858ada8443840","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555027716709439","authorIdStr":"3555027716709439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh&nbsp;","listText":"Oh&nbsp;","text":"Oh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/380420377","repostId":"2109722637","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":437,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":314285910,"gmtCreate":1612354780930,"gmtModify":1703760730191,"author":{"id":"3555027716709439","authorId":"3555027716709439","name":"RLST","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b7bffaca05b5c5fc2858ada8443840","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555027716709439","authorIdStr":"3555027716709439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting&nbsp;","listText":"Interesting&nbsp;","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/314285910","repostId":"2108876804","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":387,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":326299907,"gmtCreate":1615646773709,"gmtModify":1703491875741,"author":{"id":"3555027716709439","authorId":"3555027716709439","name":"RLST","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b7bffaca05b5c5fc2858ada8443840","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555027716709439","authorIdStr":"3555027716709439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/326299907","repostId":"1100128328","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100128328","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615563404,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1100128328?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-12 23:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock Is Down. You Could Blame Joe Biden.<blockquote>特斯拉股价下跌。你可以责怪乔·拜登。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100128328","media":"Barrons","summary":"Stock inTesla is lower after CNBC reported that the electric-vehicle company had a firein its Fremon","content":"<p>Stock inTesla&nbsp;is lower after CNBC reported that the&nbsp;electric-vehicle&nbsp;company&nbsp;had a firein its Fremont, Calif. plant, but the blaze probably isn’t the reason for the dip.</p><p><blockquote>CNBC报道电动汽车公司特斯拉在加利福尼亚州弗里蒙特发生火灾后，该公司股价走低。植物，但大火可能不是下降的原因。</blockquote></p><p>Fires are just a normal, albeit unfortunate, operating problem for any manufacturer. Tesla (ticker: TSLA) didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment about the fire or the damage it may have caused.</p><p><blockquote>对于任何制造商来说，火灾只是一个正常但不幸的操作问题。特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）没有立即回应有关火灾或火灾可能造成的损失的置评请求。</blockquote></p><p>President Joe Biden is probably responsible for the share-price decline, which left the stock about 2.7% lower in premarket trading, at about $680. It has beena wild weekfor Tesla stockholders. Shares started off the week at about $675,traded above $700and fell to about $560 before bounding back, up 4.7% Thursday, to just under $700.</p><p><blockquote>总统乔·拜登可能对股价下跌负有责任，该股在盘前交易中下跌约2.7%，至约680美元。对于特斯拉股东来说，这是疯狂的一周。本周初股价约为675美元，交易价格高于700美元，跌至约560美元，然后反弹，周四上涨4.7%，至略低于700美元。</blockquote></p><p>Nothing Tesla has done appears to be the reason for the recent volatility. It’s all about interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉所做的一切似乎都不是最近波动的原因。一切都与利率有关。</blockquote></p><p>That is where the president comes into the picture. Thursday evening, he addressed the nation, focusing on putting Covid-19 in the rearview mirror a year after the World Health Organization declared that a pandemic had begun.</p><p><blockquote>这就是总统发挥作用的地方。周四晚上，他向全国发表讲话，重点是在世界卫生组织宣布疫情已经开始一年后，将新冠肺炎(Covid-19)抛在脑后。</blockquote></p><p>“All adult Americans will be eligible to get a vaccine no later than May 1,” said the president, adding the federal government is setting up hundreds of vaccination sites and procuring millions more vaccine doses.</p><p><blockquote>总统说：“所有成年美国人都有资格在5月1日之前接种疫苗。”他补充说，联邦政府正在建立数百个疫苗接种点，并采购数百万剂疫苗。</blockquote></p><p>It’s good news, but the market is selling off Friday morning. For stocks, the speech represents almost too much of a good thing. The economy is reopening and, as a result,bond yields are rising, putting pressure on high-growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>这是个好消息，但周五早上市场正在抛售。对于股票来说，这次讲话几乎代表了太多的好事。经济正在重新开放，因此债券收益率正在上升，给高增长股票带来压力。</blockquote></p><p>Futures on the&nbsp;Nasdaq Composite&nbsp;Index, home to many highflying tech stocks, are down 1.6%.Dow Jones Industrial Averagefutures, on the other hand, are flat.</p><p><blockquote>拥有许多飙升的科技股的纳斯达克综合指数期货下跌1.6%。另一方面，道琼斯工业平均指数期货持平。</blockquote></p><p>Higher yields hurt richly valued, fast-growing companies more than others for a couple of reasons. One, they makes funding growth more expensive. Two, high- growth companies are expected generate most of their cash far in the future. That cash is a little less valuable in present terms when rates are high, compared with when rates are low. In a higher-rate environment, investors have more options to earn interest today, which puts pressure on high-growth stocks’ valuations.</p><p><blockquote>出于几个原因，较高的收益率对估值高、快速增长的公司的伤害比其他公司更大。第一，它们使融资增长更加昂贵。第二，高增长公司预计将在未来产生大部分现金。与利率低时相比，利率高时现金的价值较低。在利率较高的环境下，投资者如今有更多赚取利息的选择，这给高增长股票的估值带来压力。</blockquote></p><p>A Friday dip, however,doesn’t mean the end&nbsp;of the bull market in Tesla, EV stocks or the Nasdaq. Getting the economy back on its feet is a good thing. Investors just need a chance to adjust to the changing landscape.</p><p><blockquote>然而，周五的下跌并不意味着特斯拉、电动汽车股票或纳斯达克牛市的结束。让经济重新站稳脚跟是件好事。投资者只是需要一个机会来适应不断变化的形势。</blockquote></p><p>“There’s a good chance you, your families and friends will be able to get together in your backyard or in your neighborhood and have a cookout …and celebrate Independence Day,” Biden said. That is great news.</p><p><blockquote>拜登说：“你、你的家人和朋友很有可能能够在你的后院或附近聚会，野餐……庆祝独立日。”这是个好消息。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock Is Down. You Could Blame Joe Biden.<blockquote>特斯拉股价下跌。你可以责怪乔·拜登。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock Is Down. You Could Blame Joe Biden.<blockquote>特斯拉股价下跌。你可以责怪乔·拜登。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-12 23:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Stock inTesla&nbsp;is lower after CNBC reported that the&nbsp;electric-vehicle&nbsp;company&nbsp;had a firein its Fremont, Calif. plant, but the blaze probably isn’t the reason for the dip.</p><p><blockquote>CNBC报道电动汽车公司特斯拉在加利福尼亚州弗里蒙特发生火灾后，该公司股价走低。植物，但大火可能不是下降的原因。</blockquote></p><p>Fires are just a normal, albeit unfortunate, operating problem for any manufacturer. Tesla (ticker: TSLA) didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment about the fire or the damage it may have caused.</p><p><blockquote>对于任何制造商来说，火灾只是一个正常但不幸的操作问题。特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）没有立即回应有关火灾或火灾可能造成的损失的置评请求。</blockquote></p><p>President Joe Biden is probably responsible for the share-price decline, which left the stock about 2.7% lower in premarket trading, at about $680. It has beena wild weekfor Tesla stockholders. Shares started off the week at about $675,traded above $700and fell to about $560 before bounding back, up 4.7% Thursday, to just under $700.</p><p><blockquote>总统乔·拜登可能对股价下跌负有责任，该股在盘前交易中下跌约2.7%，至约680美元。对于特斯拉股东来说，这是疯狂的一周。本周初股价约为675美元，交易价格高于700美元，跌至约560美元，然后反弹，周四上涨4.7%，至略低于700美元。</blockquote></p><p>Nothing Tesla has done appears to be the reason for the recent volatility. It’s all about interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉所做的一切似乎都不是最近波动的原因。一切都与利率有关。</blockquote></p><p>That is where the president comes into the picture. Thursday evening, he addressed the nation, focusing on putting Covid-19 in the rearview mirror a year after the World Health Organization declared that a pandemic had begun.</p><p><blockquote>这就是总统发挥作用的地方。周四晚上，他向全国发表讲话，重点是在世界卫生组织宣布疫情已经开始一年后，将新冠肺炎(Covid-19)抛在脑后。</blockquote></p><p>“All adult Americans will be eligible to get a vaccine no later than May 1,” said the president, adding the federal government is setting up hundreds of vaccination sites and procuring millions more vaccine doses.</p><p><blockquote>总统说：“所有成年美国人都有资格在5月1日之前接种疫苗。”他补充说，联邦政府正在建立数百个疫苗接种点，并采购数百万剂疫苗。</blockquote></p><p>It’s good news, but the market is selling off Friday morning. For stocks, the speech represents almost too much of a good thing. The economy is reopening and, as a result,bond yields are rising, putting pressure on high-growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>这是个好消息，但周五早上市场正在抛售。对于股票来说，这次讲话几乎代表了太多的好事。经济正在重新开放，因此债券收益率正在上升，给高增长股票带来压力。</blockquote></p><p>Futures on the&nbsp;Nasdaq Composite&nbsp;Index, home to many highflying tech stocks, are down 1.6%.Dow Jones Industrial Averagefutures, on the other hand, are flat.</p><p><blockquote>拥有许多飙升的科技股的纳斯达克综合指数期货下跌1.6%。另一方面，道琼斯工业平均指数期货持平。</blockquote></p><p>Higher yields hurt richly valued, fast-growing companies more than others for a couple of reasons. One, they makes funding growth more expensive. Two, high- growth companies are expected generate most of their cash far in the future. That cash is a little less valuable in present terms when rates are high, compared with when rates are low. In a higher-rate environment, investors have more options to earn interest today, which puts pressure on high-growth stocks’ valuations.</p><p><blockquote>出于几个原因，较高的收益率对估值高、快速增长的公司的伤害比其他公司更大。第一，它们使融资增长更加昂贵。第二，高增长公司预计将在未来产生大部分现金。与利率低时相比，利率高时现金的价值较低。在利率较高的环境下，投资者如今有更多赚取利息的选择，这给高增长股票的估值带来压力。</blockquote></p><p>A Friday dip, however,doesn’t mean the end&nbsp;of the bull market in Tesla, EV stocks or the Nasdaq. Getting the economy back on its feet is a good thing. Investors just need a chance to adjust to the changing landscape.</p><p><blockquote>然而，周五的下跌并不意味着特斯拉、电动汽车股票或纳斯达克牛市的结束。让经济重新站稳脚跟是件好事。投资者只是需要一个机会来适应不断变化的形势。</blockquote></p><p>“There’s a good chance you, your families and friends will be able to get together in your backyard or in your neighborhood and have a cookout …and celebrate Independence Day,” Biden said. That is great news.</p><p><blockquote>拜登说：“你、你的家人和朋友很有可能能够在你的后院或附近聚会，野餐……庆祝独立日。”这是个好消息。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-is-down-you-could-blame-joe-biden-51615557806?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-is-down-you-could-blame-joe-biden-51615557806?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100128328","content_text":"Stock inTesla is lower after CNBC reported that the electric-vehicle company had a firein its Fremont, Calif. plant, but the blaze probably isn’t the reason for the dip.Fires are just a normal, albeit unfortunate, operating problem for any manufacturer. Tesla (ticker: TSLA) didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment about the fire or the damage it may have caused.President Joe Biden is probably responsible for the share-price decline, which left the stock about 2.7% lower in premarket trading, at about $680. It has beena wild weekfor Tesla stockholders. Shares started off the week at about $675,traded above $700and fell to about $560 before bounding back, up 4.7% Thursday, to just under $700.Nothing Tesla has done appears to be the reason for the recent volatility. It’s all about interest rates.That is where the president comes into the picture. Thursday evening, he addressed the nation, focusing on putting Covid-19 in the rearview mirror a year after the World Health Organization declared that a pandemic had begun.“All adult Americans will be eligible to get a vaccine no later than May 1,” said the president, adding the federal government is setting up hundreds of vaccination sites and procuring millions more vaccine doses.It’s good news, but the market is selling off Friday morning. For stocks, the speech represents almost too much of a good thing. The economy is reopening and, as a result,bond yields are rising, putting pressure on high-growth stocks.Futures on the Nasdaq Composite Index, home to many highflying tech stocks, are down 1.6%.Dow Jones Industrial Averagefutures, on the other hand, are flat.Higher yields hurt richly valued, fast-growing companies more than others for a couple of reasons. One, they makes funding growth more expensive. Two, high- growth companies are expected generate most of their cash far in the future. That cash is a little less valuable in present terms when rates are high, compared with when rates are low. In a higher-rate environment, investors have more options to earn interest today, which puts pressure on high-growth stocks’ valuations.A Friday dip, however,doesn’t mean the end of the bull market in Tesla, EV stocks or the Nasdaq. Getting the economy back on its feet is a good thing. Investors just need a chance to adjust to the changing landscape.“There’s a good chance you, your families and friends will be able to get together in your backyard or in your neighborhood and have a cookout …and celebrate Independence Day,” Biden said. That is great news.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1541,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}