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2021-09-04

#投资是场战争！「疾如风，徐如林，侵掠如火，不动如山」如阿文所说，恐慌指数是新手必须学习关注的指标。

@小虎访谈:虎友说|从台股转向恐慌指数，他是如何逐渐跑赢标普500的？

2021-09-03

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抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-19

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Micron Technology: Winter May Be Coming, But Not This Year... Nor The Next

2021-07-02

希望如视频所说，美光科技下跌是错杀。

【美股天天说】美光科技财报不错为何股价还会大跌？当好股票遇上好价格会是机会吗？

2021-06-27

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抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-19

分析透彻详尽👍

@贝拉聊财金: 什么情况？台积电(TSM 2330)，3季度涨价。。。？！AMD -- Update。联电(UMC) 美光（MU）如何看？最好的半导体ETF

2021-06-19

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PLTR Stock: The Palantir-FAA Deal News Should Have Investors Smiling Today

2021-06-15

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【权益变动】枫叶教育(01317.HK)获主席兼CEO任书良增持200万股

2021-03-10

Great ariticle, would you like to share it?

@肖总财经:宏观角度对股市的一些思考，还会继续跌么？

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3452228374717013\">@阿文顽股</a> 是一位网络媒体的广告业务主管，工作之余炒股。2017年至今，他专注于美港股的中长期投资，搭配恐慌指数（VIX）进行波段交易。 他喜欢阅读资讯，上下班路上30分钟也要利用起来。而下班后，他通常先睡上一觉，等待晚上美股开盘。“现在我持仓中多数是长期投资的美港股标的，很少盯盘，除非恐慌指数出现交易机会。” 大多数时候，晚上9点半美股开盘以后，阿文会一边看盘，一边打游戏。游戏里也有投资机会。他最近迷上玩电子艺界（EA）DICE研发团队的巨制《战地风云5》，顺便买了点EA的看涨期权，“看好新作《战地风云2042》上市后带来的业绩，以及与XBOX合作带来的想象空间。” 阿文看盘的工作台 投资这场金钱游戏里，宅男阿文的ID是<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3452228374717013\">@阿文顽股</a>。“顽”是他对自己的一种寄望，心态放松，面对行情波动能冷静下来，并坚定自己的看法。“该止损就止损，该加码就加码。” 另外，在老虎社区，阿文最近还不断强调，“打败标普和银行定存利率就是我的目标，先求稳，靠复利累积财富。”截止目前，他也确实做到了，今年平均收益率23.1%，“小小赢过标普”三个点。 转向美港股，恐慌指数是灯塔 “台股是一个散户集中的市场，容易暴涨暴跌，产品也不够健全。而且以代工的科技股为主轴，不直接面向消费者，不是我擅长的领域。”阿文因此在中国台湾股市赔多胜少。2017年3月，他将主力资金转向美港股市场。 两个月后，他初试身手就是一笔做空，买的是新兴市场3倍做空（EDZ）。进入一个机制更健全、品种更丰富的市场，阿文希望多尝试，建立自己专属的投资组合，“像周伯通左右互搏","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3452228374717013\">@阿文顽股</a> 是一位网络媒体的广告业务主管，工作之余炒股。2017年至今，他专注于美港股的中长期投资，搭配恐慌指数（VIX）进行波段交易。 他喜欢阅读资讯，上下班路上30分钟也要利用起来。而下班后，他通常先睡上一觉，等待晚上美股开盘。“现在我持仓中多数是长期投资的美港股标的，很少盯盘，除非恐慌指数出现交易机会。” 大多数时候，晚上9点半美股开盘以后，阿文会一边看盘，一边打游戏。游戏里也有投资机会。他最近迷上玩电子艺界（EA）DICE研发团队的巨制《战地风云5》，顺便买了点EA的看涨期权，“看好新作《战地风云2042》上市后带来的业绩，以及与XBOX合作带来的想象空间。” 阿文看盘的工作台 投资这场金钱游戏里，宅男阿文的ID是<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3452228374717013\">@阿文顽股</a>。“顽”是他对自己的一种寄望，心态放松，面对行情波动能冷静下来，并坚定自己的看法。“该止损就止损，该加码就加码。” 另外，在老虎社区，阿文最近还不断强调，“打败标普和银行定存利率就是我的目标，先求稳，靠复利累积财富。”截止目前，他也确实做到了，今年平均收益率23.1%，“小小赢过标普”三个点。 转向美港股，恐慌指数是灯塔 “台股是一个散户集中的市场，容易暴涨暴跌，产品也不够健全。而且以代工的科技股为主轴，不直接面向消费者，不是我擅长的领域。”阿文因此在中国台湾股市赔多胜少。2017年3月，他将主力资金转向美港股市场。 两个月后，他初试身手就是一笔做空，买的是新兴市场3倍做空（EDZ）。进入一个机制更健全、品种更丰富的市场，阿文希望多尝试，建立自己专属的投资组合，“像周伯通左右互搏","text":"@阿文顽股 是一位网络媒体的广告业务主管，工作之余炒股。2017年至今，他专注于美港股的中长期投资，搭配恐慌指数（VIX）进行波段交易。 他喜欢阅读资讯，上下班路上30分钟也要利用起来。而下班后，他通常先睡上一觉，等待晚上美股开盘。“现在我持仓中多数是长期投资的美港股标的，很少盯盘，除非恐慌指数出现交易机会。” 大多数时候，晚上9点半美股开盘以后，阿文会一边看盘，一边打游戏。游戏里也有投资机会。他最近迷上玩电子艺界（EA）DICE研发团队的巨制《战地风云5》，顺便买了点EA的看涨期权，“看好新作《战地风云2042》上市后带来的业绩，以及与XBOX合作带来的想象空间。” 阿文看盘的工作台 投资这场金钱游戏里，宅男阿文的ID是@阿文顽股。“顽”是他对自己的一种寄望，心态放松，面对行情波动能冷静下来，并坚定自己的看法。“该止损就止损，该加码就加码。” 另外，在老虎社区，阿文最近还不断强调，“打败标普和银行定存利率就是我的目标，先求稳，靠复利累积财富。”截止目前，他也确实做到了，今年平均收益率23.1%，“小小赢过标普”三个点。 转向美港股，恐慌指数是灯塔 “台股是一个散户集中的市场，容易暴涨暴跌，产品也不够健全。而且以代工的科技股为主轴，不直接面向消费者，不是我擅长的领域。”阿文因此在中国台湾股市赔多胜少。2017年3月，他将主力资金转向美港股市场。 两个月后，他初试身手就是一笔做空，买的是新兴市场3倍做空（EDZ）。进入一个机制更健全、品种更丰富的市场，阿文希望多尝试，建立自己专属的投资组合，“像周伯通左右互搏","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfcd1e02b86590e4e9868f9dc3ae912d","width":"554","height":"311"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a02acced0fdacc718a84dcab83bda3a6","width":"554","height":"279"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e54214a4bb2a5a0819a2738b5dc1ae96","width":"1080","height":"606"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/815891604","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":986,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":815216601,"gmtCreate":1630680220203,"gmtModify":1632467286374,"author":{"id":"3555043703449195","authorId":"3555043703449195","name":"XLS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9569f58c699b3db207dd98e1e8400585","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555043703449195","authorIdStr":"3555043703449195"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/815216601","repostId":"2164687796","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":795,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831690773,"gmtCreate":1629307626992,"gmtModify":1633685801436,"author":{"id":"3555043703449195","authorId":"3555043703449195","name":"XLS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9569f58c699b3db207dd98e1e8400585","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555043703449195","authorIdStr":"3555043703449195"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831690773","repostId":"1162723925","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1162723925","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629170609,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1162723925?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-17 11:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Micron Technology: Winter May Be Coming, But Not This Year... Nor The Next","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162723925","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe Morgan Stanley downgrade of Memory chips was based on PC DRAM ASPs that represent just ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>The Morgan Stanley downgrade of Memory chips was based on PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.</li>\n <li>The report addressed dropping PC sales, but failed to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year.</li>\n <li>The report focuses on DRAM spot prices, instead of contract prices that make up 90% of supplier ASPs.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72f0a26068ce9a56688977e5a0dd9578\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>borisyankov/E+ via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>Morgan Stanley analysts downgraded Micron(NASDAQ:MU)to equal weight from overweight, in their industry report titled, “Memory - Winter Is Coming.\" MS cautioned of a coming cool down in the DRAM memory business that could lead to lower DRAM prices.</p>\n<p>Morgan Stanley noted that</p>\n<blockquote>\n “DRAM conditions are losing steam, and our inflection signposts suggest caution from here there’s been a change from mid-cycle to late cycle, and that this phase-change has historically meant a challenging backdrop for forward returns.”\n</blockquote>\n<p>Micron Technology’sstock had its worst single-day percentage decline since March 16, 2020, when it fell 19.8%. MU's stock price for the past year is shown in Chart 1, illustrating the sell-off in the past few days coupled with a drop of more than 25% since reaching a high on April 12, 2021.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea0b20556a40eb39c18b7aa1ed295e1c\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Chart 1</p>\n<p>This article presents data that refutes the underlying case presented by Morgan Stanley that worsening DRAM demand is contributing to an acceleration of the end of the current memory upcycle leading to the start of a down cycle in 1Q 2022.</p>\n<p><b>Morgan Stanley’s Misinterpretation of Data#1 Small Percentage of PC DRAM</b></p>\n<p>The first point is the emphasis by Morgan Stanley on PC DRAM price erosion as a harbinger for the downturn in the DRAM market. Why? Because PCs represent just 15% of the demand for DRAMs,as shown in Chart 2, according to our report entitled “<i>Hot ICs: A Market Analysis of Artificial Intelligence, 5G, CMOS Image Sensors, and Memory Chips.\"</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b40e66f4b73b27303075791c19fe36f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 2</p>\n<p><b>#2 Increased DRAM content per PC</b></p>\n<p>The 15% DRAM demand for PCs is hardly enough to cause a stop in the memory cycle. But that's beside the point. Morgan Stanley overlooks the fact that DRAM content per PC increases each year even if the PC market has slowed.</p>\n<p>Chart 3 shows that PC unit shipments between 2015 and 2023. Indeed, my forecast shows that PCs will decrease in 2022 and 2023, but the decrease is due to a normalization of PC demand following the extraordinary demand for PCs during the work/study/stay-at-home orders associated with the COVID pandemic in 2020 that carried over into 2021.</p>\n<p>Prior to 2020, the PC market was decreasing, and I anticipate a corresponding return normalcy with a decrease of a few percent per year in 2022 and 2023. I estimate that DRAM content per PC will increase from 5.5 GB in 2015 to 14 GB in 2023. That’s an increase of 2.5 times during this period.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732cd4948d7209d76ccb4f7628560ab\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Chart 3</p>\n<p>Thus, although PC units will decrease, DRAM content will increase during the next two years. But factoring in the increase in DRAM content per PC, we see in Chart 4 a much different growth in DRAMs.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c21d24f41f7f77bc00c62ed82b44f62\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 4</p>\n<p><b>#3 Spot ASPs are Different than Contract ASPs</b></p>\n<p>Chart 5 shows DRAM data comparison for Spot ASPs vs Contract ASPs. The entire rationale for the TrendForce and Morgan Stanley reports is the drop in spot prices in 2021, and the resultant end of the current memory cycle.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5a2774dcaff2d53edd141e0cc1e2d13\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 5</p>\n<p>Why they chose the drop in spot prices as the catalyst for the end of the cycle vs. the increase in contract prices as a catalyst for strong memory growth is irrational and illogical.</p>\n<p>Importantly, there's no correlation between PC sales (Chart 3) and prices (Chart 5). In Chart 3, PC sales were at their lowest period (2017 and 2018) while ASPs were at their highest. Thus, there's an inverse relationship between PC sales and ASPs, not a direct relationship that would add credibility to the MS forecast.</p>\n<p><b>#4 Spot ASPs Are a Function of Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD Factor)</b></p>\n<p>Also note that Chart 5 shows that spot and contract prices tracked between October 2016 and the end of 2000. A bifurcation in spot vs contract prices then took place in which spot prices escalated and then collapsed, while contract prices continued a strong growth with no abatement.</p>\n<p>This bifurcation is clearly the result of the “semiconductor shortage” in which prices on the spot market have risen as a result of a perceived shortage of memory that has been interpreted as impacting not only automobiles, but every application using chips.</p>\n<p>TrendForce attempted to explain the shortage is due to stockpiling by PC suppliers, and I agree, which I also attributed to the DRAM collapse in 2000.I discussed stockpiling and hoarding as a major factor in 2000 and 2020, in a June 24, 2021 Semiconductor Deep Dive Marketplace newsletter articlehere.</p>\n<p>However, TrendForce’s statement in its press release of downward pressure on price hikes runs counter to the data in Chart 5 that contract prices have continued to increase unabated.</p>\n<blockquote>\n “Regarding the contract market, PC OEMs currently carry relatively high levels of DRAM inventory because they substantially stocked up on PC DRAM beforehand in anticipation of an upcoming shortage. Not only has PC OEMs’ high DRAM inventory put downward pressure on possible price hikes for PC DRAM, but the gradual lifting of COVID-related restrictions in Europe and the US will also likely lower the overall demand for notebook computers, thereby pulling down the overall demand for PC DRAM.”\n</blockquote>\n<p>Spot prices are based on what a buyer is willing to pay for an item with an undercurrent of fear, uncertainty, and doubt. For example, in my June 19, 2021, SA article entitled \"Micron Technology: No Shortage, Strong Growth, Period,\" from a commenter:</p>\n<blockquote>\n \"And, to lend credence to your microcontroller hypothesis, we recently were told that we would not be able to get a $3 micro for one of our existing products. I don't know if it was a direct result of the Renesas fire or not. But when we looked at the spot market we were quoted $81 for that part (that's not a typo). So now we have to re-design that board to use a different part.\"\n</blockquote>\n<p>About 10 years ago, I was an \"expert witness\" in a solar cell litigation case, and the basis of the complaint was the fact that spot silicon prices increased from $35 per metric ton to more than $500 per metric ton in a period of a few weeks because of silicon shortages. Once silicon manufacturers started making more silicon, prices dropped.</p>\n<p>Both these examples illustrate that spot prices have no direct bearing on real (contract) prices, and are often transitory.</p>\n<p>Back to the erroneous thesis that a DRAM cycle will end based on spot prices, I show supportive data in Chart 6 that suggests their data is wrong. This chart shows DRAM ASPs as reported directly from Micron, Samsung Electronics(OTC:SSNLF)and SK Hynix(OTC:HXSCL).</p>\n<p>Comparing Chart 5 and Chart 6, it is clear that data directly from the DRAM suppliers matches the positive contract prices and not spot prices. Readers must remember also that spot prices represent only 10% of the DRAM prices paid by customers. Contract prices represent 90% of actual prices.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d56577da5391c86374739262f773c7f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Chart 6</p>\n<p>Chart 7 shows memory ASPs on a three-month moving average from the SIA (Semiconductor Industry Association). Again, comparing Chart 7 with Chart 5, it is clear that the contract prices are the more valid metric.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be8f41d833e46a0145982559a7e23732\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Chart 7</p>\n<p><b>Investor Takeaway</b></p>\n<p>The recent press release from TrendForce and a report a day later by Morgan Stanley is based in data that's irrational and illogical. Their analysis is based on:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.</li>\n <li>A drop in PC sales, which have been in decline and only increased due to the pandemic, but low PC sales correlate with high ASPs (Charts 3 and 5).</li>\n <li>Failure to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year and that metric shows no abatement in growth.</li>\n <li>DRAM spot prices instead of contract prices, the latter of which correlate with reporting data supplied by DRAM manufacturer.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Strong demand for memory chips will continue through 2023 as supply is held in check not by shortages but judicious capex spend. The strong demand for memory chips such as 5G, servers, and EVs present a continuing tailwind for Micron Technology.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Micron Technology: Winter May Be Coming, But Not This Year... Nor The Next</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicron Technology: Winter May Be Coming, But Not This Year... Nor The Next\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-17 11:23 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449857-micron-technology-winter-may-be-coming-but-not-this-year-nor-the-next><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe Morgan Stanley downgrade of Memory chips was based on PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.\nThe report addressed dropping PC sales, but failed to recognize that ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449857-micron-technology-winter-may-be-coming-but-not-this-year-nor-the-next\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MU":"美光科技"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449857-micron-technology-winter-may-be-coming-but-not-this-year-nor-the-next","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162723925","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe Morgan Stanley downgrade of Memory chips was based on PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.\nThe report addressed dropping PC sales, but failed to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year.\nThe report focuses on DRAM spot prices, instead of contract prices that make up 90% of supplier ASPs.\n\nborisyankov/E+ via Getty Images\nMorgan Stanley analysts downgraded Micron(NASDAQ:MU)to equal weight from overweight, in their industry report titled, “Memory - Winter Is Coming.\" MS cautioned of a coming cool down in the DRAM memory business that could lead to lower DRAM prices.\nMorgan Stanley noted that\n\n “DRAM conditions are losing steam, and our inflection signposts suggest caution from here there’s been a change from mid-cycle to late cycle, and that this phase-change has historically meant a challenging backdrop for forward returns.”\n\nMicron Technology’sstock had its worst single-day percentage decline since March 16, 2020, when it fell 19.8%. MU's stock price for the past year is shown in Chart 1, illustrating the sell-off in the past few days coupled with a drop of more than 25% since reaching a high on April 12, 2021.\n\nChart 1\nThis article presents data that refutes the underlying case presented by Morgan Stanley that worsening DRAM demand is contributing to an acceleration of the end of the current memory upcycle leading to the start of a down cycle in 1Q 2022.\nMorgan Stanley’s Misinterpretation of Data#1 Small Percentage of PC DRAM\nThe first point is the emphasis by Morgan Stanley on PC DRAM price erosion as a harbinger for the downturn in the DRAM market. Why? Because PCs represent just 15% of the demand for DRAMs,as shown in Chart 2, according to our report entitled “Hot ICs: A Market Analysis of Artificial Intelligence, 5G, CMOS Image Sensors, and Memory Chips.\"\nChart 2\n#2 Increased DRAM content per PC\nThe 15% DRAM demand for PCs is hardly enough to cause a stop in the memory cycle. But that's beside the point. Morgan Stanley overlooks the fact that DRAM content per PC increases each year even if the PC market has slowed.\nChart 3 shows that PC unit shipments between 2015 and 2023. Indeed, my forecast shows that PCs will decrease in 2022 and 2023, but the decrease is due to a normalization of PC demand following the extraordinary demand for PCs during the work/study/stay-at-home orders associated with the COVID pandemic in 2020 that carried over into 2021.\nPrior to 2020, the PC market was decreasing, and I anticipate a corresponding return normalcy with a decrease of a few percent per year in 2022 and 2023. I estimate that DRAM content per PC will increase from 5.5 GB in 2015 to 14 GB in 2023. That’s an increase of 2.5 times during this period.\n\nChart 3\nThus, although PC units will decrease, DRAM content will increase during the next two years. But factoring in the increase in DRAM content per PC, we see in Chart 4 a much different growth in DRAMs.\nChart 4\n#3 Spot ASPs are Different than Contract ASPs\nChart 5 shows DRAM data comparison for Spot ASPs vs Contract ASPs. The entire rationale for the TrendForce and Morgan Stanley reports is the drop in spot prices in 2021, and the resultant end of the current memory cycle.\nChart 5\nWhy they chose the drop in spot prices as the catalyst for the end of the cycle vs. the increase in contract prices as a catalyst for strong memory growth is irrational and illogical.\nImportantly, there's no correlation between PC sales (Chart 3) and prices (Chart 5). In Chart 3, PC sales were at their lowest period (2017 and 2018) while ASPs were at their highest. Thus, there's an inverse relationship between PC sales and ASPs, not a direct relationship that would add credibility to the MS forecast.\n#4 Spot ASPs Are a Function of Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD Factor)\nAlso note that Chart 5 shows that spot and contract prices tracked between October 2016 and the end of 2000. A bifurcation in spot vs contract prices then took place in which spot prices escalated and then collapsed, while contract prices continued a strong growth with no abatement.\nThis bifurcation is clearly the result of the “semiconductor shortage” in which prices on the spot market have risen as a result of a perceived shortage of memory that has been interpreted as impacting not only automobiles, but every application using chips.\nTrendForce attempted to explain the shortage is due to stockpiling by PC suppliers, and I agree, which I also attributed to the DRAM collapse in 2000.I discussed stockpiling and hoarding as a major factor in 2000 and 2020, in a June 24, 2021 Semiconductor Deep Dive Marketplace newsletter articlehere.\nHowever, TrendForce’s statement in its press release of downward pressure on price hikes runs counter to the data in Chart 5 that contract prices have continued to increase unabated.\n\n “Regarding the contract market, PC OEMs currently carry relatively high levels of DRAM inventory because they substantially stocked up on PC DRAM beforehand in anticipation of an upcoming shortage. Not only has PC OEMs’ high DRAM inventory put downward pressure on possible price hikes for PC DRAM, but the gradual lifting of COVID-related restrictions in Europe and the US will also likely lower the overall demand for notebook computers, thereby pulling down the overall demand for PC DRAM.”\n\nSpot prices are based on what a buyer is willing to pay for an item with an undercurrent of fear, uncertainty, and doubt. For example, in my June 19, 2021, SA article entitled \"Micron Technology: No Shortage, Strong Growth, Period,\" from a commenter:\n\n \"And, to lend credence to your microcontroller hypothesis, we recently were told that we would not be able to get a $3 micro for one of our existing products. I don't know if it was a direct result of the Renesas fire or not. But when we looked at the spot market we were quoted $81 for that part (that's not a typo). So now we have to re-design that board to use a different part.\"\n\nAbout 10 years ago, I was an \"expert witness\" in a solar cell litigation case, and the basis of the complaint was the fact that spot silicon prices increased from $35 per metric ton to more than $500 per metric ton in a period of a few weeks because of silicon shortages. Once silicon manufacturers started making more silicon, prices dropped.\nBoth these examples illustrate that spot prices have no direct bearing on real (contract) prices, and are often transitory.\nBack to the erroneous thesis that a DRAM cycle will end based on spot prices, I show supportive data in Chart 6 that suggests their data is wrong. This chart shows DRAM ASPs as reported directly from Micron, Samsung Electronics(OTC:SSNLF)and SK Hynix(OTC:HXSCL).\nComparing Chart 5 and Chart 6, it is clear that data directly from the DRAM suppliers matches the positive contract prices and not spot prices. Readers must remember also that spot prices represent only 10% of the DRAM prices paid by customers. Contract prices represent 90% of actual prices.\n\nChart 6\nChart 7 shows memory ASPs on a three-month moving average from the SIA (Semiconductor Industry Association). Again, comparing Chart 7 with Chart 5, it is clear that the contract prices are the more valid metric.\n\nChart 7\nInvestor Takeaway\nThe recent press release from TrendForce and a report a day later by Morgan Stanley is based in data that's irrational and illogical. Their analysis is based on:\n\nPC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.\nA drop in PC sales, which have been in decline and only increased due to the pandemic, but low PC sales correlate with high ASPs (Charts 3 and 5).\nFailure to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year and that metric shows no abatement in growth.\nDRAM spot prices instead of contract prices, the latter of which correlate with reporting data supplied by DRAM manufacturer.\n\nStrong demand for memory chips will continue through 2023 as supply is held in check not by shortages but judicious capex spend. The strong demand for memory chips such as 5G, servers, and EVs present a continuing tailwind for Micron Technology.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":974,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":156244111,"gmtCreate":1625227639833,"gmtModify":1631883962719,"author":{"id":"3555043703449195","authorId":"3555043703449195","name":"XLS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9569f58c699b3db207dd98e1e8400585","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555043703449195","authorIdStr":"3555043703449195"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"希望如视频所说，美光科技下跌是错杀。","listText":"希望如视频所说，美光科技下跌是错杀。","text":"希望如视频所说，美光科技下跌是错杀。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/156244111","repostId":"2148875481","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2148875481","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625203020,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2148875481?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-02 13:17","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"【美股天天说】美光科技财报不错为何股价还会大跌？当好股票遇上好价格会是机会吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2148875481","media":"FX168","summary":"FX168财经报社(北美)讯 美国股市周四(7月1日)尾盘凭借一波拉升，帮助三大股指在7月份的第一个交易日里全数上涨，标普500指数更是连续第6个交易日创造了历史最高的收盘纪录。美国上周初请失业金人数创去年3月中旬...","content":"<html><body><div>\n<div><p><strong>FX168财经报社(北美)讯</strong> 美国股市周四(7月1日)尾盘凭借一波拉升，帮助三大股指在7月份的第一个交易日里全数上涨，标普500指数更是连续第6个交易日创造了历史最高的收盘纪录。美国上周初请失业金人数创去年3月中旬以来新低，而美国会预算办公室上调了经济增长预期。同时美国众议院批准了一份7150亿美元的基建法案，这被看作是国会希望在9月份完成全面基建立法的第一步。</p><p>个股方面，昨天盘后<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>这家内存巨头发布了最新季度的财报，正好我们也有一阵子没有跟进他们的分析了，可以结合财报看看他们的投资前景。</p><link href=\"https://cloudcache.tencent-cloud.com/open/qcloud/video/tcplayer/tcplayer.css\" ignore=\"1\" rel=\"stylesheet\"/></div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<ul>\n<li>\n\n                                                分析预测\n                                            \n</li>\n<li>\n\n                                                美国股市\n                                            \n</li>\n</ul>\n</div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>分享</div>\n<div>\n<div>  </div>\n</div>\n</div>\n<div>\n</div>\n</div>\n</div>\n</div></body></html>","source":"fxdaily_fut","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>【美股天天说】美光科技财报不错为何股价还会大跌？当好股票遇上好价格会是机会吗？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n【美股天天说】美光科技财报不错为何股价还会大跌？当好股票遇上好价格会是机会吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-02 13:17 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fx168.cn/v/dailyusstock/2107/5165397.shtml><strong>FX168</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>FX168财经报社(北美)讯 美国股市周四(7月1日)尾盘凭借一波拉升，帮助三大股指在7月份的第一个交易日里全数上涨，标普500指数更是连续第6个交易日创造了历史最高的收盘纪录。美国上周初请失业金人数创去年3月中旬以来新低，而美国会预算办公室上调了经济增长预期。同时美国众议院批准了一份7150亿美元的基建法案，这被看作是国会希望在9月份完成全面基建立法的第一步。个股方面，昨天盘后美光科技这家内存...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fx168.cn/v/dailyusstock/2107/5165397.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://www.fx168.cn/v/dailyusstock/2107/W020210702478486041308.jpg","relate_stocks":{"MU":"美光科技"},"source_url":"https://www.fx168.cn/v/dailyusstock/2107/5165397.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2148875481","content_text":"FX168财经报社(北美)讯 美国股市周四(7月1日)尾盘凭借一波拉升，帮助三大股指在7月份的第一个交易日里全数上涨，标普500指数更是连续第6个交易日创造了历史最高的收盘纪录。美国上周初请失业金人数创去年3月中旬以来新低，而美国会预算办公室上调了经济增长预期。同时美国众议院批准了一份7150亿美元的基建法案，这被看作是国会希望在9月份完成全面基建立法的第一步。个股方面，昨天盘后美光科技这家内存巨头发布了最新季度的财报，正好我们也有一阵子没有跟进他们的分析了，可以结合财报看看他们的投资前景。\n\n\n\n\n\n                                                分析预测\n                                            \n\n\n\n                                                美国股市\n                                            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\n \n  什么情况？台积电(TSM 2330)，3季度涨价。。。？！AMD -- Update。联电(UMC) 美光（MU） 如何看？最好的半导体ETF\n \n","listText":"什么情况？台积电(TSM 2330)，3季度涨价。。。？！AMD -- Update。联电(UMC) 美光（MU） 如何看？最好的半导体ETF","text":"什么情况？台积电(TSM 2330)，3季度涨价。。。？！AMD -- Update。联电(UMC) 美光（MU） 如何看？最好的半导体ETF","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169815427","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"e9de4e957fbc484289af66fb68825f4c","tweetId":"169815427","title":"第474期：📈📈📈  什么情况？台积电(TSM  2330)，3季度涨价。。。？！AMD  -- Update。联电(UMC)  美光（MU） 如何看？最好的半导体ETF ... 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23:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"PLTR Stock: The Palantir-FAA Deal News Should Have Investors Smiling Today","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192473918","media":"investorplace","summary":"Palantir Technologies(NYSE:PLTR) stock is on the move Friday following news of a deal with the Feder","content":"<p><b>Palantir Technologies</b>(NYSE:<b><u>PLTR</u></b>) stock is on the move Friday following news of a deal with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA).</p>\n<p>The goal of this deal is toassist the FAA in modernizing its ” objectives for aviation safety.”This will have Palantir Technologies providing the agency with a data analyzing tool to help with that effort.</p>\n<p>According to a news release, this will have Palantir Technologies monitoring various safety aspects for the FAA. That includes reintegrating the 737 MAX fleet back into service after it was suspended due to fatal crashes.</p>\n<p>Palantir Technologies’ deal with the FAA is set to last for one year. However, there’s also the option to extend it by up to two years. The agreement has a maximum value of $18.4 million.</p>\n<p>Akash Jain, president of Palantir USG, said the following about the agreement with the FAA that should have PLTR stock gaining today.</p>\n<blockquote>\n “We are proud to be partnering with the Federal Aviation Administration to support their critical safety mission.”\n</blockquote>\n<p>The fact that PLTR stock is actually moving lower today despite this news is strange. The company’s shares did start off rising in early morning trading, but quickly fell back down to yesterday’s close before dipping even lower.</p>\n<p>It’s also worth noting that trading volume isn’t taking off on news of the FAA deal, either. As of this writing, more than 20 million shares of PLTR stock had changed hands. That’s still well below the company’s daily average trading volume of 57.8 million shares.</p>\n<p>PLTR stock was down 1.1% as of Friday morning.</p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PLTR Stock: The Palantir-FAA Deal News Should Have Investors Smiling Today</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPLTR Stock: The Palantir-FAA Deal News Should Have Investors Smiling Today\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 23:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2021/06/pltr-stock-the-palantir-faa-deal-news-should-have-investors-smiling-today/><strong>investorplace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Palantir Technologies(NYSE:PLTR) stock is on the move Friday following news of a deal with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA).\nThe goal of this deal is toassist the FAA in modernizing its ” ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/06/pltr-stock-the-palantir-faa-deal-news-should-have-investors-smiling-today/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/06/pltr-stock-the-palantir-faa-deal-news-should-have-investors-smiling-today/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192473918","content_text":"Palantir Technologies(NYSE:PLTR) stock is on the move Friday following news of a deal with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA).\nThe goal of this deal is toassist the FAA in modernizing its ” objectives for aviation safety.”This will have Palantir Technologies providing the agency with a data analyzing tool to help with that effort.\nAccording to a news release, this will have Palantir Technologies monitoring various safety aspects for the FAA. That includes reintegrating the 737 MAX fleet back into service after it was suspended due to fatal crashes.\nPalantir Technologies’ deal with the FAA is set to last for one year. However, there’s also the option to extend it by up to two years. The agreement has a maximum value of $18.4 million.\nAkash Jain, president of Palantir USG, said the following about the agreement with the FAA that should have PLTR stock gaining today.\n\n “We are proud to be partnering with the Federal Aviation Administration to support their critical safety mission.”\n\nThe fact that PLTR stock is actually moving lower today despite this news is strange. The company’s shares did start off rising in early morning trading, but quickly fell back down to yesterday’s close before dipping even lower.\nIt’s also worth noting that trading volume isn’t taking off on news of the FAA deal, either. As of this writing, more than 20 million shares of PLTR stock had changed hands. That’s still well below the company’s daily average trading volume of 57.8 million shares.\nPLTR stock was down 1.1% as of Friday morning.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1366,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187375098,"gmtCreate":1623744768814,"gmtModify":1634029244478,"author":{"id":"3555043703449195","authorId":"3555043703449195","name":"XLS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9569f58c699b3db207dd98e1e8400585","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555043703449195","authorIdStr":"3555043703449195"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍👍","listText":"👍👍👍","text":"👍👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187375098","repostId":"2137133210","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2137133210","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621819272,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2137133210?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-24 09:21","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"【权益变动】枫叶教育(01317.HK)获主席兼CEO任书良增持200万股","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2137133210","media":"金融界网站","summary":"【财华社讯】港交所权益资料显示，枫叶教育(01317.HK)获董事会主席、首席执行官兼执行董事任书良于5月17日在场纫悦抗善骄价1.595港元增持200万股，涉资319万港元。增持后，任书良的好仓持股数目为1,562,728,010股，好仓持股比例由52.10%升至52.17%。","content":"<html><body><div><p>　　【财华社讯】港交所权益资料显示，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01317\">枫叶教育</a>(01317.HK)获董事会主席、首席执行官兼执行董事任书良于5月17日在场纫悦抗善骄价1.595港元增持200万股，涉资319万港元。增持后，任书良的好仓持股数目为1,562,728,010股，好仓持股比例由52.10%升至52.17%。</p>\n<div>\n</div>\n</div></body></html>","source":"jinrongjie_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>【权益变动】枫叶教育(01317.HK)获主席兼CEO任书良增持200万股</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ 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#eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n【权益变动】枫叶教育(01317.HK)获主席兼CEO任书良增持200万股\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-24 09:21 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://hk.jrj.com.cn/2021/05/24092132805334.shtml><strong>金融界网站</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>【财华社讯】港交所权益资料显示，枫叶教育(01317.HK)获董事会主席、首席执行官兼执行董事任书良于5月17日在场纫悦抗善骄价1.595港元增持200万股，涉资319万港元。增持后，任书良的好仓持股数目为1,562,728,010股，好仓持股比例由52.10%升至52.17%。</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://hk.jrj.com.cn/2021/05/24092132805334.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98e661d079a394a2795b91495bc103d7","relate_stocks":{"01317":"枫叶教育"},"source_url":"http://hk.jrj.com.cn/2021/05/24092132805334.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2137133210","content_text":"【财华社讯】港交所权益资料显示，枫叶教育(01317.HK)获董事会主席、首席执行官兼执行董事任书良于5月17日在场纫悦抗善骄价1.595港元增持200万股，涉资319万港元。增持后，任书良的好仓持股数目为1,562,728,010股，好仓持股比例由52.10%升至52.17%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01317":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":899,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323162028,"gmtCreate":1615311787164,"gmtModify":1703487259351,"author":{"id":"3555043703449195","authorId":"3555043703449195","name":"XLS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9569f58c699b3db207dd98e1e8400585","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555043703449195","authorIdStr":"3555043703449195"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323162028","repostId":"323917301","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":323917301,"gmtCreate":1615298749503,"gmtModify":1742833479754,"author":{"id":"3554463181289571","authorId":"3554463181289571","name":"肖总财经","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb2daf9b5ed468526328d3e5b19f8f43","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554463181289571","authorIdStr":"3554463181289571"},"themes":[],"title":"宏观角度对股市的一些思考，还会继续跌么？","htmlText":"&nbsp; &nbsp; 如果你想长期在股市生存，那么这篇文值得你花1小时仔细品读，相信我，不会让你失望！ &nbsp;&nbsp;3.7号上周日视频直播跟骑兵连战友们交流了下最近行情，从宏观经济角度出发做了些行情分析，因为涉及知识比较专业，好多人理解的比较费劲，我把部分内容整理下，尽可能用白话的形式展示给大家。 &nbsp;&nbsp;先看下最近实盘操作和理念： &nbsp;&nbsp;2月24日时候建议整体都降仓位，然后一直强调不要搏日线级别反弹，这次调整是周线或月线级别调整，多看少动。 &nbsp;&nbsp;对看好的标的控制好仓位的前提下可以分批买入，只不过以前补仓资金分10份，这次分20份补这样，实际最近几天我也一直在分批买入，在骑兵连也进行了实盘分享。 &nbsp;&nbsp;对于散户而言，最好的风险管理对冲手段其实就是仓位管理，这是我一直强调的核心理念，像其他衍生品对冲工具，是不太适合散户的。新人朋友经历这轮下跌，自己在场内真金白银实操后，可能才对我一直强调的核心仓位控制理念感同身受。 &nbsp;&nbsp;这里不是强调我预测的多么准，实际我一直把自己定位为股市里的“新人”，预测短期走势是最不靠谱的，一般也不轻易做择时和轮动，更多的是“持有”+“套利”相结合的策略。 &nbsp;&nbsp;本文主题是基于股市在经济周期趋势中客观反映一些规律的个人看法。 &nbsp;&nbsp;股市预测是玄学问题：唯一不变的是经济周期和人性博弈。我们去探索分析经济周期和人性本质，目的并不是为了去预测市场，而是有助于我们去研判事物客观发展的一些规律。 &nbsp;&nbsp;最近行情从2月22日开始跌，3.8当天更是单边无抵抗下跌，这种跌法很容易让人恐慌，让人眼前发蒙，不知所措。 &nbsp;&nbsp;学过经济学的都知道，一个完整的经济周期一般要经历衰退期、复苏期、过热期和","listText":"&nbsp; &nbsp; 如果你想长期在股市生存，那么这篇文值得你花1小时仔细品读，相信我，不会让你失望！ &nbsp;&nbsp;3.7号上周日视频直播跟骑兵连战友们交流了下最近行情，从宏观经济角度出发做了些行情分析，因为涉及知识比较专业，好多人理解的比较费劲，我把部分内容整理下，尽可能用白话的形式展示给大家。 &nbsp;&nbsp;先看下最近实盘操作和理念： &nbsp;&nbsp;2月24日时候建议整体都降仓位，然后一直强调不要搏日线级别反弹，这次调整是周线或月线级别调整，多看少动。 &nbsp;&nbsp;对看好的标的控制好仓位的前提下可以分批买入，只不过以前补仓资金分10份，这次分20份补这样，实际最近几天我也一直在分批买入，在骑兵连也进行了实盘分享。 &nbsp;&nbsp;对于散户而言，最好的风险管理对冲手段其实就是仓位管理，这是我一直强调的核心理念，像其他衍生品对冲工具，是不太适合散户的。新人朋友经历这轮下跌，自己在场内真金白银实操后，可能才对我一直强调的核心仓位控制理念感同身受。 &nbsp;&nbsp;这里不是强调我预测的多么准，实际我一直把自己定位为股市里的“新人”，预测短期走势是最不靠谱的，一般也不轻易做择时和轮动，更多的是“持有”+“套利”相结合的策略。 &nbsp;&nbsp;本文主题是基于股市在经济周期趋势中客观反映一些规律的个人看法。 &nbsp;&nbsp;股市预测是玄学问题：唯一不变的是经济周期和人性博弈。我们去探索分析经济周期和人性本质，目的并不是为了去预测市场，而是有助于我们去研判事物客观发展的一些规律。 &nbsp;&nbsp;最近行情从2月22日开始跌，3.8当天更是单边无抵抗下跌，这种跌法很容易让人恐慌，让人眼前发蒙，不知所措。 &nbsp;&nbsp;学过经济学的都知道，一个完整的经济周期一般要经历衰退期、复苏期、过热期和","text":"如果你想长期在股市生存，那么这篇文值得你花1小时仔细品读，相信我，不会让你失望！ 3.7号上周日视频直播跟骑兵连战友们交流了下最近行情，从宏观经济角度出发做了些行情分析，因为涉及知识比较专业，好多人理解的比较费劲，我把部分内容整理下，尽可能用白话的形式展示给大家。 先看下最近实盘操作和理念： 2月24日时候建议整体都降仓位，然后一直强调不要搏日线级别反弹，这次调整是周线或月线级别调整，多看少动。 对看好的标的控制好仓位的前提下可以分批买入，只不过以前补仓资金分10份，这次分20份补这样，实际最近几天我也一直在分批买入，在骑兵连也进行了实盘分享。 对于散户而言，最好的风险管理对冲手段其实就是仓位管理，这是我一直强调的核心理念，像其他衍生品对冲工具，是不太适合散户的。新人朋友经历这轮下跌，自己在场内真金白银实操后，可能才对我一直强调的核心仓位控制理念感同身受。 这里不是强调我预测的多么准，实际我一直把自己定位为股市里的“新人”，预测短期走势是最不靠谱的，一般也不轻易做择时和轮动，更多的是“持有”+“套利”相结合的策略。 本文主题是基于股市在经济周期趋势中客观反映一些规律的个人看法。 股市预测是玄学问题：唯一不变的是经济周期和人性博弈。我们去探索分析经济周期和人性本质，目的并不是为了去预测市场，而是有助于我们去研判事物客观发展的一些规律。 最近行情从2月22日开始跌，3.8当天更是单边无抵抗下跌，这种跌法很容易让人恐慌，让人眼前发蒙，不知所措。 学过经济学的都知道，一个完整的经济周期一般要经历衰退期、复苏期、过热期和","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/697e0144c360fe0acdd0cd2a2c35924f","width":"1280","height":"853"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323917301","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1192,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":156244111,"gmtCreate":1625227639833,"gmtModify":1631883962719,"author":{"id":"3555043703449195","authorId":"3555043703449195","name":"XLS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9569f58c699b3db207dd98e1e8400585","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555043703449195","authorIdStr":"3555043703449195"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"希望如视频所说，美光科技下跌是错杀。","listText":"希望如视频所说，美光科技下跌是错杀。","text":"希望如视频所说，美光科技下跌是错杀。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/156244111","repostId":"2148875481","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2148875481","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625203020,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2148875481?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-02 13:17","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"【美股天天说】美光科技财报不错为何股价还会大跌？当好股票遇上好价格会是机会吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2148875481","media":"FX168","summary":"FX168财经报社(北美)讯 美国股市周四(7月1日)尾盘凭借一波拉升，帮助三大股指在7月份的第一个交易日里全数上涨，标普500指数更是连续第6个交易日创造了历史最高的收盘纪录。美国上周初请失业金人数创去年3月中旬...","content":"<html><body><div>\n<div><p><strong>FX168财经报社(北美)讯</strong> 美国股市周四(7月1日)尾盘凭借一波拉升，帮助三大股指在7月份的第一个交易日里全数上涨，标普500指数更是连续第6个交易日创造了历史最高的收盘纪录。美国上周初请失业金人数创去年3月中旬以来新低，而美国会预算办公室上调了经济增长预期。同时美国众议院批准了一份7150亿美元的基建法案，这被看作是国会希望在9月份完成全面基建立法的第一步。</p><p>个股方面，昨天盘后<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>这家内存巨头发布了最新季度的财报，正好我们也有一阵子没有跟进他们的分析了，可以结合财报看看他们的投资前景。</p><link href=\"https://cloudcache.tencent-cloud.com/open/qcloud/video/tcplayer/tcplayer.css\" ignore=\"1\" rel=\"stylesheet\"/></div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<ul>\n<li>\n\n                                                分析预测\n                                            \n</li>\n<li>\n\n                                                美国股市\n                     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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n【美股天天说】美光科技财报不错为何股价还会大跌？当好股票遇上好价格会是机会吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-02 13:17 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fx168.cn/v/dailyusstock/2107/5165397.shtml><strong>FX168</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>FX168财经报社(北美)讯 美国股市周四(7月1日)尾盘凭借一波拉升，帮助三大股指在7月份的第一个交易日里全数上涨，标普500指数更是连续第6个交易日创造了历史最高的收盘纪录。美国上周初请失业金人数创去年3月中旬以来新低，而美国会预算办公室上调了经济增长预期。同时美国众议院批准了一份7150亿美元的基建法案，这被看作是国会希望在9月份完成全面基建立法的第一步。个股方面，昨天盘后美光科技这家内存...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fx168.cn/v/dailyusstock/2107/5165397.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://www.fx168.cn/v/dailyusstock/2107/W020210702478486041308.jpg","relate_stocks":{"MU":"美光科技"},"source_url":"https://www.fx168.cn/v/dailyusstock/2107/5165397.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2148875481","content_text":"FX168财经报社(北美)讯 美国股市周四(7月1日)尾盘凭借一波拉升，帮助三大股指在7月份的第一个交易日里全数上涨，标普500指数更是连续第6个交易日创造了历史最高的收盘纪录。美国上周初请失业金人数创去年3月中旬以来新低，而美国会预算办公室上调了经济增长预期。同时美国众议院批准了一份7150亿美元的基建法案，这被看作是国会希望在9月份完成全面基建立法的第一步。个股方面，昨天盘后美光科技这家内存巨头发布了最新季度的财报，正好我们也有一阵子没有跟进他们的分析了，可以结合财报看看他们的投资前景。\n\n\n\n\n\n                                                分析预测\n                                            \n\n\n\n                                                美国股市\n                                            \n\n\n\n\n\n分享","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MU":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1928,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":814914039,"gmtCreate":1630742065221,"gmtModify":1631883715982,"author":{"id":"3555043703449195","authorId":"3555043703449195","name":"XLS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9569f58c699b3db207dd98e1e8400585","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555043703449195","authorIdStr":"3555043703449195"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"#投资是场战争！「疾如风，徐如林，侵掠如火，不动如山」如阿文所说，恐慌指数是新手必须学习关注的指标。","listText":"#投资是场战争！「疾如风，徐如林，侵掠如火，不动如山」如阿文所说，恐慌指数是新手必须学习关注的指标。","text":"#投资是场战争！「疾如风，徐如林，侵掠如火，不动如山」如阿文所说，恐慌指数是新手必须学习关注的指标。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/814914039","repostId":"815891604","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":815891604,"gmtCreate":1630662555705,"gmtModify":1744960732364,"author":{"id":"37002306153600","authorId":"37002306153600","name":"小虎访谈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0f6fba0673df1de1c5c31bb2b4f6d4e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"37002306153600","authorIdStr":"37002306153600"},"themes":[],"title":"虎友说|从台股转向恐慌指数，他是如何逐渐跑赢标普500的？","htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3452228374717013\">@阿文顽股</a> 是一位网络媒体的广告业务主管，工作之余炒股。2017年至今，他专注于美港股的中长期投资，搭配恐慌指数（VIX）进行波段交易。 他喜欢阅读资讯，上下班路上30分钟也要利用起来。而下班后，他通常先睡上一觉，等待晚上美股开盘。“现在我持仓中多数是长期投资的美港股标的，很少盯盘，除非恐慌指数出现交易机会。” 大多数时候，晚上9点半美股开盘以后，阿文会一边看盘，一边打游戏。游戏里也有投资机会。他最近迷上玩电子艺界（EA）DICE研发团队的巨制《战地风云5》，顺便买了点EA的看涨期权，“看好新作《战地风云2042》上市后带来的业绩，以及与XBOX合作带来的想象空间。” 阿文看盘的工作台 投资这场金钱游戏里，宅男阿文的ID是<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3452228374717013\">@阿文顽股</a>。“顽”是他对自己的一种寄望，心态放松，面对行情波动能冷静下来，并坚定自己的看法。“该止损就止损，该加码就加码。” 另外，在老虎社区，阿文最近还不断强调，“打败标普和银行定存利率就是我的目标，先求稳，靠复利累积财富。”截止目前，他也确实做到了，今年平均收益率23.1%，“小小赢过标普”三个点。 转向美港股，恐慌指数是灯塔 “台股是一个散户集中的市场，容易暴涨暴跌，产品也不够健全。而且以代工的科技股为主轴，不直接面向消费者，不是我擅长的领域。”阿文因此在中国台湾股市赔多胜少。2017年3月，他将主力资金转向美港股市场。 两个月后，他初试身手就是一笔做空，买的是新兴市场3倍做空（EDZ）。进入一个机制更健全、品种更丰富的市场，阿文希望多尝试，建立自己专属的投资组合，“像周伯通左右互搏","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3452228374717013\">@阿文顽股</a> 是一位网络媒体的广告业务主管，工作之余炒股。2017年至今，他专注于美港股的中长期投资，搭配恐慌指数（VIX）进行波段交易。 他喜欢阅读资讯，上下班路上30分钟也要利用起来。而下班后，他通常先睡上一觉，等待晚上美股开盘。“现在我持仓中多数是长期投资的美港股标的，很少盯盘，除非恐慌指数出现交易机会。” 大多数时候，晚上9点半美股开盘以后，阿文会一边看盘，一边打游戏。游戏里也有投资机会。他最近迷上玩电子艺界（EA）DICE研发团队的巨制《战地风云5》，顺便买了点EA的看涨期权，“看好新作《战地风云2042》上市后带来的业绩，以及与XBOX合作带来的想象空间。” 阿文看盘的工作台 投资这场金钱游戏里，宅男阿文的ID是<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3452228374717013\">@阿文顽股</a>。“顽”是他对自己的一种寄望，心态放松，面对行情波动能冷静下来，并坚定自己的看法。“该止损就止损，该加码就加码。” 另外，在老虎社区，阿文最近还不断强调，“打败标普和银行定存利率就是我的目标，先求稳，靠复利累积财富。”截止目前，他也确实做到了，今年平均收益率23.1%，“小小赢过标普”三个点。 转向美港股，恐慌指数是灯塔 “台股是一个散户集中的市场，容易暴涨暴跌，产品也不够健全。而且以代工的科技股为主轴，不直接面向消费者，不是我擅长的领域。”阿文因此在中国台湾股市赔多胜少。2017年3月，他将主力资金转向美港股市场。 两个月后，他初试身手就是一笔做空，买的是新兴市场3倍做空（EDZ）。进入一个机制更健全、品种更丰富的市场，阿文希望多尝试，建立自己专属的投资组合，“像周伯通左右互搏","text":"@阿文顽股 是一位网络媒体的广告业务主管，工作之余炒股。2017年至今，他专注于美港股的中长期投资，搭配恐慌指数（VIX）进行波段交易。 他喜欢阅读资讯，上下班路上30分钟也要利用起来。而下班后，他通常先睡上一觉，等待晚上美股开盘。“现在我持仓中多数是长期投资的美港股标的，很少盯盘，除非恐慌指数出现交易机会。” 大多数时候，晚上9点半美股开盘以后，阿文会一边看盘，一边打游戏。游戏里也有投资机会。他最近迷上玩电子艺界（EA）DICE研发团队的巨制《战地风云5》，顺便买了点EA的看涨期权，“看好新作《战地风云2042》上市后带来的业绩，以及与XBOX合作带来的想象空间。” 阿文看盘的工作台 投资这场金钱游戏里，宅男阿文的ID是@阿文顽股。“顽”是他对自己的一种寄望，心态放松，面对行情波动能冷静下来，并坚定自己的看法。“该止损就止损，该加码就加码。” 另外，在老虎社区，阿文最近还不断强调，“打败标普和银行定存利率就是我的目标，先求稳，靠复利累积财富。”截止目前，他也确实做到了，今年平均收益率23.1%，“小小赢过标普”三个点。 转向美港股，恐慌指数是灯塔 “台股是一个散户集中的市场，容易暴涨暴跌，产品也不够健全。而且以代工的科技股为主轴，不直接面向消费者，不是我擅长的领域。”阿文因此在中国台湾股市赔多胜少。2017年3月，他将主力资金转向美港股市场。 两个月后，他初试身手就是一笔做空，买的是新兴市场3倍做空（EDZ）。进入一个机制更健全、品种更丰富的市场，阿文希望多尝试，建立自己专属的投资组合，“像周伯通左右互搏","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfcd1e02b86590e4e9868f9dc3ae912d","width":"554","height":"311"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a02acced0fdacc718a84dcab83bda3a6","width":"554","height":"279"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e54214a4bb2a5a0819a2738b5dc1ae96","width":"1080","height":"606"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/815891604","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":986,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":831690773,"gmtCreate":1629307626992,"gmtModify":1633685801436,"author":{"id":"3555043703449195","authorId":"3555043703449195","name":"XLS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9569f58c699b3db207dd98e1e8400585","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555043703449195","authorIdStr":"3555043703449195"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831690773","repostId":"1162723925","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1162723925","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629170609,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1162723925?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-17 11:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Micron Technology: Winter May Be Coming, But Not This Year... Nor The Next","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162723925","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe Morgan Stanley downgrade of Memory chips was based on PC DRAM ASPs that represent just ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>The Morgan Stanley downgrade of Memory chips was based on PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.</li>\n <li>The report addressed dropping PC sales, but failed to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year.</li>\n <li>The report focuses on DRAM spot prices, instead of contract prices that make up 90% of supplier ASPs.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72f0a26068ce9a56688977e5a0dd9578\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>borisyankov/E+ via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>Morgan Stanley analysts downgraded Micron(NASDAQ:MU)to equal weight from overweight, in their industry report titled, “Memory - Winter Is Coming.\" MS cautioned of a coming cool down in the DRAM memory business that could lead to lower DRAM prices.</p>\n<p>Morgan Stanley noted that</p>\n<blockquote>\n “DRAM conditions are losing steam, and our inflection signposts suggest caution from here there’s been a change from mid-cycle to late cycle, and that this phase-change has historically meant a challenging backdrop for forward returns.”\n</blockquote>\n<p>Micron Technology’sstock had its worst single-day percentage decline since March 16, 2020, when it fell 19.8%. MU's stock price for the past year is shown in Chart 1, illustrating the sell-off in the past few days coupled with a drop of more than 25% since reaching a high on April 12, 2021.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea0b20556a40eb39c18b7aa1ed295e1c\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Chart 1</p>\n<p>This article presents data that refutes the underlying case presented by Morgan Stanley that worsening DRAM demand is contributing to an acceleration of the end of the current memory upcycle leading to the start of a down cycle in 1Q 2022.</p>\n<p><b>Morgan Stanley’s Misinterpretation of Data#1 Small Percentage of PC DRAM</b></p>\n<p>The first point is the emphasis by Morgan Stanley on PC DRAM price erosion as a harbinger for the downturn in the DRAM market. Why? Because PCs represent just 15% of the demand for DRAMs,as shown in Chart 2, according to our report entitled “<i>Hot ICs: A Market Analysis of Artificial Intelligence, 5G, CMOS Image Sensors, and Memory Chips.\"</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b40e66f4b73b27303075791c19fe36f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 2</p>\n<p><b>#2 Increased DRAM content per PC</b></p>\n<p>The 15% DRAM demand for PCs is hardly enough to cause a stop in the memory cycle. But that's beside the point. Morgan Stanley overlooks the fact that DRAM content per PC increases each year even if the PC market has slowed.</p>\n<p>Chart 3 shows that PC unit shipments between 2015 and 2023. Indeed, my forecast shows that PCs will decrease in 2022 and 2023, but the decrease is due to a normalization of PC demand following the extraordinary demand for PCs during the work/study/stay-at-home orders associated with the COVID pandemic in 2020 that carried over into 2021.</p>\n<p>Prior to 2020, the PC market was decreasing, and I anticipate a corresponding return normalcy with a decrease of a few percent per year in 2022 and 2023. I estimate that DRAM content per PC will increase from 5.5 GB in 2015 to 14 GB in 2023. That’s an increase of 2.5 times during this period.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732cd4948d7209d76ccb4f7628560ab\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Chart 3</p>\n<p>Thus, although PC units will decrease, DRAM content will increase during the next two years. But factoring in the increase in DRAM content per PC, we see in Chart 4 a much different growth in DRAMs.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c21d24f41f7f77bc00c62ed82b44f62\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 4</p>\n<p><b>#3 Spot ASPs are Different than Contract ASPs</b></p>\n<p>Chart 5 shows DRAM data comparison for Spot ASPs vs Contract ASPs. The entire rationale for the TrendForce and Morgan Stanley reports is the drop in spot prices in 2021, and the resultant end of the current memory cycle.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5a2774dcaff2d53edd141e0cc1e2d13\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 5</p>\n<p>Why they chose the drop in spot prices as the catalyst for the end of the cycle vs. the increase in contract prices as a catalyst for strong memory growth is irrational and illogical.</p>\n<p>Importantly, there's no correlation between PC sales (Chart 3) and prices (Chart 5). In Chart 3, PC sales were at their lowest period (2017 and 2018) while ASPs were at their highest. Thus, there's an inverse relationship between PC sales and ASPs, not a direct relationship that would add credibility to the MS forecast.</p>\n<p><b>#4 Spot ASPs Are a Function of Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD Factor)</b></p>\n<p>Also note that Chart 5 shows that spot and contract prices tracked between October 2016 and the end of 2000. A bifurcation in spot vs contract prices then took place in which spot prices escalated and then collapsed, while contract prices continued a strong growth with no abatement.</p>\n<p>This bifurcation is clearly the result of the “semiconductor shortage” in which prices on the spot market have risen as a result of a perceived shortage of memory that has been interpreted as impacting not only automobiles, but every application using chips.</p>\n<p>TrendForce attempted to explain the shortage is due to stockpiling by PC suppliers, and I agree, which I also attributed to the DRAM collapse in 2000.I discussed stockpiling and hoarding as a major factor in 2000 and 2020, in a June 24, 2021 Semiconductor Deep Dive Marketplace newsletter articlehere.</p>\n<p>However, TrendForce’s statement in its press release of downward pressure on price hikes runs counter to the data in Chart 5 that contract prices have continued to increase unabated.</p>\n<blockquote>\n “Regarding the contract market, PC OEMs currently carry relatively high levels of DRAM inventory because they substantially stocked up on PC DRAM beforehand in anticipation of an upcoming shortage. Not only has PC OEMs’ high DRAM inventory put downward pressure on possible price hikes for PC DRAM, but the gradual lifting of COVID-related restrictions in Europe and the US will also likely lower the overall demand for notebook computers, thereby pulling down the overall demand for PC DRAM.”\n</blockquote>\n<p>Spot prices are based on what a buyer is willing to pay for an item with an undercurrent of fear, uncertainty, and doubt. For example, in my June 19, 2021, SA article entitled \"Micron Technology: No Shortage, Strong Growth, Period,\" from a commenter:</p>\n<blockquote>\n \"And, to lend credence to your microcontroller hypothesis, we recently were told that we would not be able to get a $3 micro for one of our existing products. I don't know if it was a direct result of the Renesas fire or not. But when we looked at the spot market we were quoted $81 for that part (that's not a typo). So now we have to re-design that board to use a different part.\"\n</blockquote>\n<p>About 10 years ago, I was an \"expert witness\" in a solar cell litigation case, and the basis of the complaint was the fact that spot silicon prices increased from $35 per metric ton to more than $500 per metric ton in a period of a few weeks because of silicon shortages. Once silicon manufacturers started making more silicon, prices dropped.</p>\n<p>Both these examples illustrate that spot prices have no direct bearing on real (contract) prices, and are often transitory.</p>\n<p>Back to the erroneous thesis that a DRAM cycle will end based on spot prices, I show supportive data in Chart 6 that suggests their data is wrong. This chart shows DRAM ASPs as reported directly from Micron, Samsung Electronics(OTC:SSNLF)and SK Hynix(OTC:HXSCL).</p>\n<p>Comparing Chart 5 and Chart 6, it is clear that data directly from the DRAM suppliers matches the positive contract prices and not spot prices. Readers must remember also that spot prices represent only 10% of the DRAM prices paid by customers. Contract prices represent 90% of actual prices.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d56577da5391c86374739262f773c7f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Chart 6</p>\n<p>Chart 7 shows memory ASPs on a three-month moving average from the SIA (Semiconductor Industry Association). Again, comparing Chart 7 with Chart 5, it is clear that the contract prices are the more valid metric.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be8f41d833e46a0145982559a7e23732\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Chart 7</p>\n<p><b>Investor Takeaway</b></p>\n<p>The recent press release from TrendForce and a report a day later by Morgan Stanley is based in data that's irrational and illogical. Their analysis is based on:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.</li>\n <li>A drop in PC sales, which have been in decline and only increased due to the pandemic, but low PC sales correlate with high ASPs (Charts 3 and 5).</li>\n <li>Failure to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year and that metric shows no abatement in growth.</li>\n <li>DRAM spot prices instead of contract prices, the latter of which correlate with reporting data supplied by DRAM manufacturer.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Strong demand for memory chips will continue through 2023 as supply is held in check not by shortages but judicious capex spend. The strong demand for memory chips such as 5G, servers, and EVs present a continuing tailwind for Micron Technology.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Micron Technology: Winter May Be Coming, But Not This Year... Nor The Next</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicron Technology: Winter May Be Coming, But Not This Year... Nor The Next\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-17 11:23 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449857-micron-technology-winter-may-be-coming-but-not-this-year-nor-the-next><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe Morgan Stanley downgrade of Memory chips was based on PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.\nThe report addressed dropping PC sales, but failed to recognize that ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449857-micron-technology-winter-may-be-coming-but-not-this-year-nor-the-next\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MU":"美光科技"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449857-micron-technology-winter-may-be-coming-but-not-this-year-nor-the-next","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162723925","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe Morgan Stanley downgrade of Memory chips was based on PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.\nThe report addressed dropping PC sales, but failed to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year.\nThe report focuses on DRAM spot prices, instead of contract prices that make up 90% of supplier ASPs.\n\nborisyankov/E+ via Getty Images\nMorgan Stanley analysts downgraded Micron(NASDAQ:MU)to equal weight from overweight, in their industry report titled, “Memory - Winter Is Coming.\" MS cautioned of a coming cool down in the DRAM memory business that could lead to lower DRAM prices.\nMorgan Stanley noted that\n\n “DRAM conditions are losing steam, and our inflection signposts suggest caution from here there’s been a change from mid-cycle to late cycle, and that this phase-change has historically meant a challenging backdrop for forward returns.”\n\nMicron Technology’sstock had its worst single-day percentage decline since March 16, 2020, when it fell 19.8%. MU's stock price for the past year is shown in Chart 1, illustrating the sell-off in the past few days coupled with a drop of more than 25% since reaching a high on April 12, 2021.\n\nChart 1\nThis article presents data that refutes the underlying case presented by Morgan Stanley that worsening DRAM demand is contributing to an acceleration of the end of the current memory upcycle leading to the start of a down cycle in 1Q 2022.\nMorgan Stanley’s Misinterpretation of Data#1 Small Percentage of PC DRAM\nThe first point is the emphasis by Morgan Stanley on PC DRAM price erosion as a harbinger for the downturn in the DRAM market. Why? Because PCs represent just 15% of the demand for DRAMs,as shown in Chart 2, according to our report entitled “Hot ICs: A Market Analysis of Artificial Intelligence, 5G, CMOS Image Sensors, and Memory Chips.\"\nChart 2\n#2 Increased DRAM content per PC\nThe 15% DRAM demand for PCs is hardly enough to cause a stop in the memory cycle. But that's beside the point. Morgan Stanley overlooks the fact that DRAM content per PC increases each year even if the PC market has slowed.\nChart 3 shows that PC unit shipments between 2015 and 2023. Indeed, my forecast shows that PCs will decrease in 2022 and 2023, but the decrease is due to a normalization of PC demand following the extraordinary demand for PCs during the work/study/stay-at-home orders associated with the COVID pandemic in 2020 that carried over into 2021.\nPrior to 2020, the PC market was decreasing, and I anticipate a corresponding return normalcy with a decrease of a few percent per year in 2022 and 2023. I estimate that DRAM content per PC will increase from 5.5 GB in 2015 to 14 GB in 2023. That’s an increase of 2.5 times during this period.\n\nChart 3\nThus, although PC units will decrease, DRAM content will increase during the next two years. But factoring in the increase in DRAM content per PC, we see in Chart 4 a much different growth in DRAMs.\nChart 4\n#3 Spot ASPs are Different than Contract ASPs\nChart 5 shows DRAM data comparison for Spot ASPs vs Contract ASPs. The entire rationale for the TrendForce and Morgan Stanley reports is the drop in spot prices in 2021, and the resultant end of the current memory cycle.\nChart 5\nWhy they chose the drop in spot prices as the catalyst for the end of the cycle vs. the increase in contract prices as a catalyst for strong memory growth is irrational and illogical.\nImportantly, there's no correlation between PC sales (Chart 3) and prices (Chart 5). In Chart 3, PC sales were at their lowest period (2017 and 2018) while ASPs were at their highest. Thus, there's an inverse relationship between PC sales and ASPs, not a direct relationship that would add credibility to the MS forecast.\n#4 Spot ASPs Are a Function of Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD Factor)\nAlso note that Chart 5 shows that spot and contract prices tracked between October 2016 and the end of 2000. A bifurcation in spot vs contract prices then took place in which spot prices escalated and then collapsed, while contract prices continued a strong growth with no abatement.\nThis bifurcation is clearly the result of the “semiconductor shortage” in which prices on the spot market have risen as a result of a perceived shortage of memory that has been interpreted as impacting not only automobiles, but every application using chips.\nTrendForce attempted to explain the shortage is due to stockpiling by PC suppliers, and I agree, which I also attributed to the DRAM collapse in 2000.I discussed stockpiling and hoarding as a major factor in 2000 and 2020, in a June 24, 2021 Semiconductor Deep Dive Marketplace newsletter articlehere.\nHowever, TrendForce’s statement in its press release of downward pressure on price hikes runs counter to the data in Chart 5 that contract prices have continued to increase unabated.\n\n “Regarding the contract market, PC OEMs currently carry relatively high levels of DRAM inventory because they substantially stocked up on PC DRAM beforehand in anticipation of an upcoming shortage. Not only has PC OEMs’ high DRAM inventory put downward pressure on possible price hikes for PC DRAM, but the gradual lifting of COVID-related restrictions in Europe and the US will also likely lower the overall demand for notebook computers, thereby pulling down the overall demand for PC DRAM.”\n\nSpot prices are based on what a buyer is willing to pay for an item with an undercurrent of fear, uncertainty, and doubt. For example, in my June 19, 2021, SA article entitled \"Micron Technology: No Shortage, Strong Growth, Period,\" from a commenter:\n\n \"And, to lend credence to your microcontroller hypothesis, we recently were told that we would not be able to get a $3 micro for one of our existing products. I don't know if it was a direct result of the Renesas fire or not. But when we looked at the spot market we were quoted $81 for that part (that's not a typo). So now we have to re-design that board to use a different part.\"\n\nAbout 10 years ago, I was an \"expert witness\" in a solar cell litigation case, and the basis of the complaint was the fact that spot silicon prices increased from $35 per metric ton to more than $500 per metric ton in a period of a few weeks because of silicon shortages. Once silicon manufacturers started making more silicon, prices dropped.\nBoth these examples illustrate that spot prices have no direct bearing on real (contract) prices, and are often transitory.\nBack to the erroneous thesis that a DRAM cycle will end based on spot prices, I show supportive data in Chart 6 that suggests their data is wrong. This chart shows DRAM ASPs as reported directly from Micron, Samsung Electronics(OTC:SSNLF)and SK Hynix(OTC:HXSCL).\nComparing Chart 5 and Chart 6, it is clear that data directly from the DRAM suppliers matches the positive contract prices and not spot prices. Readers must remember also that spot prices represent only 10% of the DRAM prices paid by customers. Contract prices represent 90% of actual prices.\n\nChart 6\nChart 7 shows memory ASPs on a three-month moving average from the SIA (Semiconductor Industry Association). Again, comparing Chart 7 with Chart 5, it is clear that the contract prices are the more valid metric.\n\nChart 7\nInvestor Takeaway\nThe recent press release from TrendForce and a report a day later by Morgan Stanley is based in data that's irrational and illogical. Their analysis is based on:\n\nPC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.\nA drop in PC sales, which have been in decline and only increased due to the pandemic, but low PC sales correlate with high ASPs (Charts 3 and 5).\nFailure to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year and that metric shows no abatement in growth.\nDRAM spot prices instead of contract prices, the latter of which correlate with reporting data supplied by DRAM manufacturer.\n\nStrong demand for memory chips will continue through 2023 as supply is held in check not by shortages but judicious capex spend. The strong demand for memory chips such as 5G, servers, and EVs present a continuing tailwind for Micron Technology.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":974,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162978467,"gmtCreate":1624032956059,"gmtModify":1634023759857,"author":{"id":"3555043703449195","authorId":"3555043703449195","name":"XLS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9569f58c699b3db207dd98e1e8400585","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555043703449195","authorIdStr":"3555043703449195"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162978467","repostId":"1192473918","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1192473918","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624029343,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1192473918?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 23:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"PLTR Stock: The Palantir-FAA Deal News Should Have Investors Smiling Today","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192473918","media":"investorplace","summary":"Palantir Technologies(NYSE:PLTR) stock is on the move Friday following news of a deal with the Feder","content":"<p><b>Palantir Technologies</b>(NYSE:<b><u>PLTR</u></b>) stock is on the move Friday following news of a deal with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA).</p>\n<p>The goal of this deal is toassist the FAA in modernizing its ” objectives for aviation safety.”This will have Palantir Technologies providing the agency with a data analyzing tool to help with that effort.</p>\n<p>According to a news release, this will have Palantir Technologies monitoring various safety aspects for the FAA. That includes reintegrating the 737 MAX fleet back into service after it was suspended due to fatal crashes.</p>\n<p>Palantir Technologies’ deal with the FAA is set to last for one year. However, there’s also the option to extend it by up to two years. The agreement has a maximum value of $18.4 million.</p>\n<p>Akash Jain, president of Palantir USG, said the following about the agreement with the FAA that should have PLTR stock gaining today.</p>\n<blockquote>\n “We are proud to be partnering with the Federal Aviation Administration to support their critical safety mission.”\n</blockquote>\n<p>The fact that PLTR stock is actually moving lower today despite this news is strange. The company’s shares did start off rising in early morning trading, but quickly fell back down to yesterday’s close before dipping even lower.</p>\n<p>It’s also worth noting that trading volume isn’t taking off on news of the FAA deal, either. As of this writing, more than 20 million shares of PLTR stock had changed hands. That’s still well below the company’s daily average trading volume of 57.8 million shares.</p>\n<p>PLTR stock was down 1.1% as of Friday morning.</p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PLTR Stock: The Palantir-FAA Deal News Should Have Investors Smiling Today</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPLTR Stock: The Palantir-FAA Deal News Should Have Investors Smiling Today\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 23:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2021/06/pltr-stock-the-palantir-faa-deal-news-should-have-investors-smiling-today/><strong>investorplace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Palantir Technologies(NYSE:PLTR) stock is on the move Friday following news of a deal with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA).\nThe goal of this deal is toassist the FAA in modernizing its ” ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/06/pltr-stock-the-palantir-faa-deal-news-should-have-investors-smiling-today/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/06/pltr-stock-the-palantir-faa-deal-news-should-have-investors-smiling-today/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192473918","content_text":"Palantir Technologies(NYSE:PLTR) stock is on the move Friday following news of a deal with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA).\nThe goal of this deal is toassist the FAA in modernizing its ” objectives for aviation safety.”This will have Palantir Technologies providing the agency with a data analyzing tool to help with that effort.\nAccording to a news release, this will have Palantir Technologies monitoring various safety aspects for the FAA. That includes reintegrating the 737 MAX fleet back into service after it was suspended due to fatal crashes.\nPalantir Technologies’ deal with the FAA is set to last for one year. However, there’s also the option to extend it by up to two years. The agreement has a maximum value of $18.4 million.\nAkash Jain, president of Palantir USG, said the following about the agreement with the FAA that should have PLTR stock gaining today.\n\n “We are proud to be partnering with the Federal Aviation Administration to support their critical safety mission.”\n\nThe fact that PLTR stock is actually moving lower today despite this news is strange. The company’s shares did start off rising in early morning trading, but quickly fell back down to yesterday’s close before dipping even lower.\nIt’s also worth noting that trading volume isn’t taking off on news of the FAA deal, either. As of this writing, more than 20 million shares of PLTR stock had changed hands. That’s still well below the company’s daily average trading volume of 57.8 million shares.\nPLTR stock was down 1.1% as of Friday 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ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323162028","repostId":"323917301","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":323917301,"gmtCreate":1615298749503,"gmtModify":1742833479754,"author":{"id":"3554463181289571","authorId":"3554463181289571","name":"肖总财经","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb2daf9b5ed468526328d3e5b19f8f43","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554463181289571","authorIdStr":"3554463181289571"},"themes":[],"title":"宏观角度对股市的一些思考，还会继续跌么？","htmlText":"&nbsp; &nbsp; 如果你想长期在股市生存，那么这篇文值得你花1小时仔细品读，相信我，不会让你失望！ &nbsp;&nbsp;3.7号上周日视频直播跟骑兵连战友们交流了下最近行情，从宏观经济角度出发做了些行情分析，因为涉及知识比较专业，好多人理解的比较费劲，我把部分内容整理下，尽可能用白话的形式展示给大家。 &nbsp;&nbsp;先看下最近实盘操作和理念： &nbsp;&nbsp;2月24日时候建议整体都降仓位，然后一直强调不要搏日线级别反弹，这次调整是周线或月线级别调整，多看少动。 &nbsp;&nbsp;对看好的标的控制好仓位的前提下可以分批买入，只不过以前补仓资金分10份，这次分20份补这样，实际最近几天我也一直在分批买入，在骑兵连也进行了实盘分享。 &nbsp;&nbsp;对于散户而言，最好的风险管理对冲手段其实就是仓位管理，这是我一直强调的核心理念，像其他衍生品对冲工具，是不太适合散户的。新人朋友经历这轮下跌，自己在场内真金白银实操后，可能才对我一直强调的核心仓位控制理念感同身受。 &nbsp;&nbsp;这里不是强调我预测的多么准，实际我一直把自己定位为股市里的“新人”，预测短期走势是最不靠谱的，一般也不轻易做择时和轮动，更多的是“持有”+“套利”相结合的策略。 &nbsp;&nbsp;本文主题是基于股市在经济周期趋势中客观反映一些规律的个人看法。 &nbsp;&nbsp;股市预测是玄学问题：唯一不变的是经济周期和人性博弈。我们去探索分析经济周期和人性本质，目的并不是为了去预测市场，而是有助于我们去研判事物客观发展的一些规律。 &nbsp;&nbsp;最近行情从2月22日开始跌，3.8当天更是单边无抵抗下跌，这种跌法很容易让人恐慌，让人眼前发蒙，不知所措。 &nbsp;&nbsp;学过经济学的都知道，一个完整的经济周期一般要经历衰退期、复苏期、过热期和","listText":"&nbsp; &nbsp; 如果你想长期在股市生存，那么这篇文值得你花1小时仔细品读，相信我，不会让你失望！ &nbsp;&nbsp;3.7号上周日视频直播跟骑兵连战友们交流了下最近行情，从宏观经济角度出发做了些行情分析，因为涉及知识比较专业，好多人理解的比较费劲，我把部分内容整理下，尽可能用白话的形式展示给大家。 &nbsp;&nbsp;先看下最近实盘操作和理念： &nbsp;&nbsp;2月24日时候建议整体都降仓位，然后一直强调不要搏日线级别反弹，这次调整是周线或月线级别调整，多看少动。 &nbsp;&nbsp;对看好的标的控制好仓位的前提下可以分批买入，只不过以前补仓资金分10份，这次分20份补这样，实际最近几天我也一直在分批买入，在骑兵连也进行了实盘分享。 &nbsp;&nbsp;对于散户而言，最好的风险管理对冲手段其实就是仓位管理，这是我一直强调的核心理念，像其他衍生品对冲工具，是不太适合散户的。新人朋友经历这轮下跌，自己在场内真金白银实操后，可能才对我一直强调的核心仓位控制理念感同身受。 &nbsp;&nbsp;这里不是强调我预测的多么准，实际我一直把自己定位为股市里的“新人”，预测短期走势是最不靠谱的，一般也不轻易做择时和轮动，更多的是“持有”+“套利”相结合的策略。 &nbsp;&nbsp;本文主题是基于股市在经济周期趋势中客观反映一些规律的个人看法。 &nbsp;&nbsp;股市预测是玄学问题：唯一不变的是经济周期和人性博弈。我们去探索分析经济周期和人性本质，目的并不是为了去预测市场，而是有助于我们去研判事物客观发展的一些规律。 &nbsp;&nbsp;最近行情从2月22日开始跌，3.8当天更是单边无抵抗下跌，这种跌法很容易让人恐慌，让人眼前发蒙，不知所措。 &nbsp;&nbsp;学过经济学的都知道，一个完整的经济周期一般要经历衰退期、复苏期、过热期和","text":"如果你想长期在股市生存，那么这篇文值得你花1小时仔细品读，相信我，不会让你失望！ 3.7号上周日视频直播跟骑兵连战友们交流了下最近行情，从宏观经济角度出发做了些行情分析，因为涉及知识比较专业，好多人理解的比较费劲，我把部分内容整理下，尽可能用白话的形式展示给大家。 先看下最近实盘操作和理念： 2月24日时候建议整体都降仓位，然后一直强调不要搏日线级别反弹，这次调整是周线或月线级别调整，多看少动。 对看好的标的控制好仓位的前提下可以分批买入，只不过以前补仓资金分10份，这次分20份补这样，实际最近几天我也一直在分批买入，在骑兵连也进行了实盘分享。 对于散户而言，最好的风险管理对冲手段其实就是仓位管理，这是我一直强调的核心理念，像其他衍生品对冲工具，是不太适合散户的。新人朋友经历这轮下跌，自己在场内真金白银实操后，可能才对我一直强调的核心仓位控制理念感同身受。 这里不是强调我预测的多么准，实际我一直把自己定位为股市里的“新人”，预测短期走势是最不靠谱的，一般也不轻易做择时和轮动，更多的是“持有”+“套利”相结合的策略。 本文主题是基于股市在经济周期趋势中客观反映一些规律的个人看法。 股市预测是玄学问题：唯一不变的是经济周期和人性博弈。我们去探索分析经济周期和人性本质，目的并不是为了去预测市场，而是有助于我们去研判事物客观发展的一些规律。 最近行情从2月22日开始跌，3.8当天更是单边无抵抗下跌，这种跌法很容易让人恐慌，让人眼前发蒙，不知所措。 学过经济学的都知道，一个完整的经济周期一般要经历衰退期、复苏期、过热期和","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/697e0144c360fe0acdd0cd2a2c35924f","width":"1280","height":"853"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323917301","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1192,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}