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有烦恼的猫
2024-08-10
哦哦哦哦哦哦哦
有烦恼的猫
2024-05-18
$第一共和银行(FRCB)$
舒服了
有烦恼的猫
2024-05-18
$Faraday Future(FFIE)$
被套了吧各位兄弟
有烦恼的猫
2024-05-14
太棒了,亏了多少了
有烦恼的猫
2023-09-05
$第一共和银行(FRCB)$
又可以交易了,兄弟们冲啊?
有烦恼的猫
2023-05-06
写的很不错
抱歉,原内容已删除
有烦恼的猫
2023-04-26
$第一共和银行(FRC)$
还有人比我亏得更多吗
有烦恼的猫
2023-03-27
All in
@junjia:
$第一共和银行(FRC)$
准备再套一批?
有烦恼的猫
2023-03-21
$第一共和银行(FRC)$
风浪越大,鱼越贵
有烦恼的猫
2023-03-21
$瑞士信贷(CS)$
梭哈,风浪越大,鱼越贵!
有烦恼的猫
2023-03-21
$第一共和银行(FRC)$
坚持不懈,继续抄底
有烦恼的猫
2022-03-11
学习学习
@价值投资为王:中概股再遭血洗,聊聊我是如何应对暴跌的!
有烦恼的猫
2022-03-11
真不错
@小虎老师:滴滴退市!若私有化,咱们的股票该怎么办?
有烦恼的猫
2021-04-14
好文章
抱歉,原内容已删除
有烦恼的猫
2021-04-14
没人有持仓吗
抱歉,原内容已删除
有烦恼的猫
2021-02-25
牛逼了,起飞
抱歉,原内容已删除
有烦恼的猫
2021-02-25
哈哈哈哈哈
抱歉,原内容已删除
有烦恼的猫
2021-02-17
起飞
抱歉,原内容已删除
有烦恼的猫
2020-12-22
抄底,梭哈
抱歉,原内容已删除
有烦恼的猫
2020-12-01
跌了,崩盘啦,快跑快跑
抱歉,原内容已删除
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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11:25","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"朱宁:牛市已来,但散户在今后6-12月里更容易亏钱","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1110774323","media":"腾讯财经","summary":"很多市场不但是已经进入牛市,而且已经进入牛市很长时间了。","content":"<p>7月8日,著名经济学家、上海交通大学上海高级金融学院副院长、师从诺贝尔经济学奖得主罗伯特·席勒的朱宁教授,和经济学博士、著名财经主持人马红漫进行独家对话。</p><p>牛市是不是真的来了?散户如何避免牛市亏损厄运?注册制改革会给中小企业及投资者带来怎样的影响?散户投资创业板时如何规避风险?爆款基金要不要追?这些当下的投资热点问题,都在本文中一一得到解答。</p><p><b>以下为对话直播实录(精简):</b></p><p><b>牛市已经到来,但要注意追高风险</b></p><p>马红漫:您觉得现在A股牛市是不是真的来了?</p><p>朱宁:第一点,很多市场不但是已经进入牛市,而且已经进入牛市很长时间了。</p><p>第二点,牛市确实来了,但是可能来的比很多朋友想的都要晚。从去年年底开始,很多机构投资者,都很看好今年的股市,但是不料突如其来的疫情打乱我们之前很多的想法。我们的疫情控制得也很好,复产复工也很成功。但股市一直还没反映出整个经济复苏的迹象。</p><p>第三点,最近确实有一种牛市的叙事,讲外资的行情,说中国是全球资金最好的风险避风港,全世界的利好因素都进入整个中国的A股。</p><p>我个人有两个判断。</p><p>第一,我比较看好中国今年A股的走势。可能到年底之前,A股的表现会好于美股的表现。</p><p>第二,无论是用历史的角度还是国际的角度看,这两天市场的涨势都比较吓人。在迅猛的上涨过程中,大家在积极配置的同时,一定要注意追高过程中的风险。</p><p><b>散户如何规避牛市亏损的厄运?</b></p><p>马红漫:散户如何规避牛市亏损的厄运呢?</p><p>朱宁: 根据来自于我们在全球多个主要的资本市场里面进行的大数据分析,我给大家分享两个很重要的发现。</p><p><b>第一点是“散户赚钱天理难容”。</b>如果散户跑赢大盘,那么散户的背面是机构,就说明机构会跑输大盘。但这么一想,你就会觉得不太合理,好像机构再怎么不行,也比散户还要行一点。我们必须意识到散户的能力是有限的。</p><p><b>第二点,散户反而是在熊市的时候相对于大盘的表现会不那么差。</b>在牛市的时候,散户相对于大盘的表现会差距比较大。</p><p>越是散户集中进入股市的时候,越预示着市场的顶部就要来临,而这时市场风险很大。散户在今后6月-12月里更容易亏钱,而不是更容易赚钱。但往往散户受“羊群效应”影响,看周围的人都赚钱了,不能只有自己不赚钱,认为自己的能力比别人都强,结果往往就接盘接在了山顶上。</p><p>马红漫:听散户朋友跟我说过这样一句话:踏空比套牢更让人觉得痛苦。在这追涨杀跌过程当中,其实成本会变得更高,可能会亏的更多,这种说法对吗?</p><p>朱宁:对的,在我的书《投资者的朋友》和《投资者的敌人》里面就特别讲到,我觉得投资者有几个敌人。</p><p><b>第一个是不愿意止损。</b>大量的散户有鸵鸟效应——亏了钱就不看了,眼不见心不烦。但他们可以把亏钱股票卖了,买一个赚钱的股票把你原来亏的钱赚回来。</p><p><b>第二点,散户不想未来会发生什么,而是看过去会发生什么,他总是觉得过去涨的股票还会继续涨。</b>这种简单的线性思考,也让很多散户追盘追到了整个股价最高的时候。</p><p><b>第三个就是散户交易太过频繁。</b>很多散户是今天听到这个消息买这股票,股票过两天没涨,赶紧卖了这个股票再去买涨的股票。</p><p><b>注册制改革,让“买者自负,卖者有责”</b></p><p>马红漫:注册制的推进对中国中小企业会带来什么样的深层次影响呢?</p><p>朱宁:我觉得注册制改革对于整个中国的中小企业发展,包括中国的创业创新、经济转型,都是特别核心重要的一个制度。</p><p>对于中国企业来讲,可能在两个方面有非常大的一个帮助。</p><p><b>第一,能够更好地缓解融资难和融资贵的问题。</b>目前咱们国内的这种所谓“间接融资”,就是老百姓把钱存在银行,银行决定是不是把钱放款放给中小企业。但是一到放款时就会发现,很多中小企业没有抵押,没有收入,也没有盈利,这钱就没法放。所以我们国内现在钱并不缺,缺的是一个能够把投资者和融资的企业连接在一起地通道。</p><p>第二,对于我们中国的老百姓、投资者,必须要看到一旦允许了注册制,允许我们中国最好的企业在他们发展最健康,最快的时候能够在中国的资本市场上市,也就意味着咱们中国的居民和投资者可以分享整个中国经济高速发展带来的红利。<b>所以这点我觉得对于今后经济的转型、消费增长,是特别重要的一个推动力量。</b></p><p>马红漫:我们从现在的核准制变成国际成熟资本市场更流行的注册制,这两个制度变化对于我们整个交易制度、市场体系来说会带来什么更深层次的变化?</p><p>朱宁:我从两个角度来介绍一下。我觉得证监会一直是怀有慈父般地呵护市场发展的心态,但是我们必须意识到,每年中国有4000家左右的上市公司,其实很难完全尽职地做到对每一个公司都有深刻地了解。</p><p><b>一方面你没有足够的精力、能力和人员去做深刻地调查</b>;一方面整个社会又都认为,既然这个企业被你证监会审了,被你交易所审了,就意味着你认为它是家好企业,意味着我可以闭着眼睛买这支公司,从而造成道德风险——很多投资者应该自己承担的风险,但他不但不承担,还转嫁给监管者。</p><p>这点和前两年在金融领域里推动的一个很重要的资管新规的改革类似,“买者自负,卖者有责”这8个字,意思是上市公司一定要披露信息,勤勉尽职。但前提仍然是买者自负,买者得知道那是你的钱,是你的风险,你得自己去调查一下这是不是一个好的企业。注册制最核心的是真正把投资者的责任感、专业知识,带入整个投资领域里面,这是非常健康的一个发展。</p><p>第二点,最开始中国股市创建的一个重要的目标,是在90年代初期帮助国有企业进行体制改革、进行融资。<b>我们必须意识到整个股市它是一个融资和投资结合在一起的市场。要想源源不断地有投资,一定是这些融资的企业给投资者带来了很好的投资收益。</b></p><p>所以从这个意义上来讲,对于塑造我们中国资本市场的文化,提升中国企业的信息披露和公司治理能力,催生中国投资者群体的成熟,注册制都是非常关键不可或缺的一次根本性改革。</p><p><b>“新股不败”的神话一去不复返</b></p><p>马红漫:未来如果上市的企业融资挂牌变得越来越容易,那类似于这种新股不败的中国特色交易模式是不是也会被颠覆呢?</p><p>朱宁:我个人觉得很有可能会发生根本性的改变。</p><p>第一,如果我们完全实施注册制的话,很可能不是新股不败。而是新股必败。你只有很成功地挑选了那些非常好的上市公司之后,才能保证你在上市之后,你投资的公司能够跑赢其他已经上市的类似公司。</p><p>第二点,我觉得这是一个比较漫长的转型过程。在国内,在任何一个市场比较火热的情况下,新股上市第一天有非常大的超额收益,也是一个比较普遍的国际现象,这个现象有两点是值得大家关注的:第一,有很强的周期性。第二,不同的公司它的议价差异很大。随着上市过程、IPO过程越来越市场化,越来越买者自负,新股不败的预期会逐渐发生调整。</p><p><b>给90后投资者的一些投资建议</b></p><p><b>马红漫:过去两三年的时间,作为普通投资者参与投资越来越难。从您研究的行为金融学的角度来看,您觉得投资者到底该如何去理财?</b></p><p>朱宁:我觉得如果大家能够有这个意识,反而投资表现可能会更好一些。中了招或者暴了雷的,我觉得往往是因为对这个雷之前没有特别丰富和充分的了解。</p><p>我在《投资者的朋友》里一直在强调,我们投资者要有一个多元化的投资理念,你千万别把所有的鸡蛋都放在同一个篮子里。我们在过去一段时间看到,今后5~10年的投资理念和环境和过去的5~10年可能是非常不同的。别简单地用过去5年的经验去套今后的5年。</p><p><b>如果大家能够每一个资产都有一定的配置,都有一定的风险敞口的话,那么基本上是东方不亮西方亮。你可能不能保证一天长成个胖子,一天变成个首富,但是一定会持之以恒地在保值增值,在分享整个全球经济增长的红利。</b></p><p><b>马红漫:您觉得本土效应该如何克服呢?</b></p><p>朱宁:喜欢自己国家的股票,第一个原因是方便,第二是熟悉,第三是不了解,有一种风险的恐惧感。</p><p>我有两个建议给大家。</p><p><b>第一,我们并不一定真的需要了解那个公司,可以通过ETF、指数型基金,通过被动的配置方式来买。</b>你只要把你自己20%的金融资产投在指数相关的基金公司提供的一个产品上面就可以。</p><p>第二点,在已经有美国市场配置的前提下,更看好医疗,我就多配一些医疗的ETF;更看好金融,就多配置一些金融的ETF。<b>随着国内金融的开放和创新,已经给咱们国内的投资者提供了海外市场的一个非常好的机会。</b></p><p><b>马红漫:如何应对注册制改革后的风险?</b></p><p>朱宁:现在上市的条件松了、上市企业多了、融资更容易了,整个风险确实是在变大。</p><p>从行为金融这个方面,我有两点提示。</p><p>第一,一定要克服自己的过度自信。但你一定得认识到,<b>IPO上市是一个高度信息不对称的过程。</b>在投资前一定要认真地想想,我究竟对这个企业了解多少,我和其他投资者相比,我究竟有什么优势和劣势。</p><p>第二点,<b>只有设立一个非常严苛的惩罚,才能对证券市场里的非法行为造成足够的威胁</b>。证券市场实在离钱太近了,一旦有任何的操作,任何的违法行为,钱来得太容易了。只有严刑苛法,才能够制止和遏制这种非法行为的尝试。</p><p>此外,随着原来千军万马勇过独木桥的现象发生改变之后,很可能会出现有公司不想上市。这其实是一个健康的,自然发展的方向。上市是一个成本很高的商业运作。在这个过程中,它的成本不只是说要合规要补税,一个很重要的点是你在上市过程之后,创始人是否能保证自己对公司的掌控。</p><p><b>马红漫:很多人心理方面的缺陷问题导致在金融行为当中的问题,您觉得能克服这些问题吗?</b></p><p>朱宁:第一,无论在中国的A股市场,还是美股市场,我们都发现如那些投资经验相对比较丰富的,金融从业经验比较丰富的,教育水平相对比较高的,收入水平相对比较高的投资者,相对受这些行为的影响要稍微弱一些。</p><p>第二,我不会希望说是完全消除这种偏差。虽然不能保证你能够回避这些偏差。但是不了解这些偏差,就很容易就落入了资本市场的陷阱里面。学习的过程很重要,总有人说赚钱是最终极的修行。首先要能够认识到自己的贪婪和恐惧,然后要知道怎么控制。</p><p>我希望投资者能够非常诚实地看待自己,要勇于承认我上次确实犯了这个错误。投资是一项反人性的活动。投资之所以很困难,恰恰在于它对你最熟悉,最自然的人性提出了挑战。</p><p><b>马红漫:对于普通家庭来说,金融资产配置需要注意哪些问题?</b></p><p>朱宁:我觉得中国居民家庭的金融资产今后十年可能会有非常巨大的发展趋势。在这个过程中要注意三点。</p><p>第一,多元化投资。不要只盯着股票市场,还有债券市场、黄金、大宗商品、理财产品和信托等等,要有一个相对多元的配置。</p><p>第二,了解自己的投资目标,不同的投资目标会导致不同的预期投资收益率,而每年预期的投资收益率又会对应不同的风险偏好。</p><p>第三,对投资有基本的了解和观察。买股票就必须要准备好可能会有年化15%的波动率,你赚钱的时候可以赚30%,你亏钱时也有可能亏20%。</p><p><b>马红漫:对90后的年轻人,您有什么资产配置建议呢?</b></p><p>朱宁:第一,如果是一个30岁左右的投资者,我们一般会鼓励大概2/3左右的资产投资在股票市场,包括中国和全球的股市。大概有20%~30%投资在固定收益,或者债券类的资产。再有5%~10%留在现金或者可以投一定的黄金,这是一个比较标准的推荐。</p><p>稍微保守一点,可能一半的资产投资在权益类股票类的资产里面,30%左右可能投资在固收类或者说理财类的产品。再有10%~15%可以选择黄金,作为对各种不同风险的对冲。</p><p>至于在国内和全球之间,咱们不要特别把中国股市拿出来,就买一个叫MSCI明晟的全球指数,这样就把全球的股市都买了。</p><p>在这个基础上我们还可以超配,比如说在整50%里面,可能中国在整个全球股市占大概1/4不到一些,所以你正常应该配10%。但是由于我们看好国内的股市,大家可以超配20%~30%。</p><p>这个比例也不是一成不变的。如果说中国股市表现特别好,今年比如翻番了,那希望大家把整个这一部分的资产类别稍微降下来一点。有一段时间可能整个股市特别不好,反而希望大家逆向操作,可以增加一些对于权益类股票的投资和配置。</p><p><b>房地产增值的获利空间会越来越小</b></p><p>马红漫:中国人最关心房子的问题。对于个人投资者来说,房子这些固定资产未来还有投资的空间吗?</p><p>朱宁:三个建议。第一,明确房子是为什么?房子究竟是为了自住,还是投资,要有一个清晰的答案。如果你是为了自住,那从长期来讲买一个房子是非常合理。</p><p>第二,如果你希望通过房地产的增值来获利的话,我个人觉得获利的空间会越来越小。</p><p>第三,把实体的资产金融化。房地产仍然是好的行业,但大家必须要意识到:第一,它平时的日常收益率很低;第二,房地产是一个流动性很差的资产;第三,你必须一下就把几百万的资金投进去,这也代表了你面对这个风险的敞口是非常大的。</p><p><b>爆款基金不要追</b></p><p>马红漫:我们作为普通投资者,应该去追这些爆款基金吗?</p><p>朱宁:我个人建议大家不追。</p><p>第一,往往爆款基金在发行的时候,是市场情绪比较火热,也是市场开始要接近顶部或者出现下跌风险的时候。</p><p>第二,大量全球的实证证明,随着基金规模的扩大,基金的业绩是逐渐被侵蚀或者逐渐下降的。他今后能再给投资者带来超额收益的能力,是随着规模的扩大在下降的。</p><p>第三,我们必须得知道这个爆款基金并不是随机产生。往往是市场公募基金管理公司在关注投资者,你们想买什么是我就推出什么爆款。这个时候你才追进这些板块,今后这些行业这些板块很可能风险会大过收益。我是希望大家不要砸锅卖铁去追那些爆款的基金。</p>","source":"txcj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n朱宁:牛市已来,但散户在今后6-12月里更容易亏钱\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-07-10 11:25 北京时间 <a href=https://www.cls.cn/detail/532481><strong>腾讯财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>7月8日,著名经济学家、上海交通大学上海高级金融学院副院长、师从诺贝尔经济学奖得主罗伯特·席勒的朱宁教授,和经济学博士、著名财经主持人马红漫进行独家对话。牛市是不是真的来了?散户如何避免牛市亏损厄运?注册制改革会给中小企业及投资者带来怎样的影响?散户投资创业板时如何规避风险?爆款基金要不要追?这些当下的投资热点问题,都在本文中一一得到解答。以下为对话直播实录(精简):牛市已经到来,但要注意追高风险...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cls.cn/detail/532481\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebb146d9df27844cb787ad545c50986d","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://www.cls.cn/detail/532481","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1110774323","content_text":"7月8日,著名经济学家、上海交通大学上海高级金融学院副院长、师从诺贝尔经济学奖得主罗伯特·席勒的朱宁教授,和经济学博士、著名财经主持人马红漫进行独家对话。牛市是不是真的来了?散户如何避免牛市亏损厄运?注册制改革会给中小企业及投资者带来怎样的影响?散户投资创业板时如何规避风险?爆款基金要不要追?这些当下的投资热点问题,都在本文中一一得到解答。以下为对话直播实录(精简):牛市已经到来,但要注意追高风险马红漫:您觉得现在A股牛市是不是真的来了?朱宁:第一点,很多市场不但是已经进入牛市,而且已经进入牛市很长时间了。第二点,牛市确实来了,但是可能来的比很多朋友想的都要晚。从去年年底开始,很多机构投资者,都很看好今年的股市,但是不料突如其来的疫情打乱我们之前很多的想法。我们的疫情控制得也很好,复产复工也很成功。但股市一直还没反映出整个经济复苏的迹象。第三点,最近确实有一种牛市的叙事,讲外资的行情,说中国是全球资金最好的风险避风港,全世界的利好因素都进入整个中国的A股。我个人有两个判断。第一,我比较看好中国今年A股的走势。可能到年底之前,A股的表现会好于美股的表现。第二,无论是用历史的角度还是国际的角度看,这两天市场的涨势都比较吓人。在迅猛的上涨过程中,大家在积极配置的同时,一定要注意追高过程中的风险。散户如何规避牛市亏损的厄运?马红漫:散户如何规避牛市亏损的厄运呢?朱宁: 根据来自于我们在全球多个主要的资本市场里面进行的大数据分析,我给大家分享两个很重要的发现。第一点是“散户赚钱天理难容”。如果散户跑赢大盘,那么散户的背面是机构,就说明机构会跑输大盘。但这么一想,你就会觉得不太合理,好像机构再怎么不行,也比散户还要行一点。我们必须意识到散户的能力是有限的。第二点,散户反而是在熊市的时候相对于大盘的表现会不那么差。在牛市的时候,散户相对于大盘的表现会差距比较大。越是散户集中进入股市的时候,越预示着市场的顶部就要来临,而这时市场风险很大。散户在今后6月-12月里更容易亏钱,而不是更容易赚钱。但往往散户受“羊群效应”影响,看周围的人都赚钱了,不能只有自己不赚钱,认为自己的能力比别人都强,结果往往就接盘接在了山顶上。马红漫:听散户朋友跟我说过这样一句话:踏空比套牢更让人觉得痛苦。在这追涨杀跌过程当中,其实成本会变得更高,可能会亏的更多,这种说法对吗?朱宁:对的,在我的书《投资者的朋友》和《投资者的敌人》里面就特别讲到,我觉得投资者有几个敌人。第一个是不愿意止损。大量的散户有鸵鸟效应——亏了钱就不看了,眼不见心不烦。但他们可以把亏钱股票卖了,买一个赚钱的股票把你原来亏的钱赚回来。第二点,散户不想未来会发生什么,而是看过去会发生什么,他总是觉得过去涨的股票还会继续涨。这种简单的线性思考,也让很多散户追盘追到了整个股价最高的时候。第三个就是散户交易太过频繁。很多散户是今天听到这个消息买这股票,股票过两天没涨,赶紧卖了这个股票再去买涨的股票。注册制改革,让“买者自负,卖者有责”马红漫:注册制的推进对中国中小企业会带来什么样的深层次影响呢?朱宁:我觉得注册制改革对于整个中国的中小企业发展,包括中国的创业创新、经济转型,都是特别核心重要的一个制度。对于中国企业来讲,可能在两个方面有非常大的一个帮助。第一,能够更好地缓解融资难和融资贵的问题。目前咱们国内的这种所谓“间接融资”,就是老百姓把钱存在银行,银行决定是不是把钱放款放给中小企业。但是一到放款时就会发现,很多中小企业没有抵押,没有收入,也没有盈利,这钱就没法放。所以我们国内现在钱并不缺,缺的是一个能够把投资者和融资的企业连接在一起地通道。第二,对于我们中国的老百姓、投资者,必须要看到一旦允许了注册制,允许我们中国最好的企业在他们发展最健康,最快的时候能够在中国的资本市场上市,也就意味着咱们中国的居民和投资者可以分享整个中国经济高速发展带来的红利。所以这点我觉得对于今后经济的转型、消费增长,是特别重要的一个推动力量。马红漫:我们从现在的核准制变成国际成熟资本市场更流行的注册制,这两个制度变化对于我们整个交易制度、市场体系来说会带来什么更深层次的变化?朱宁:我从两个角度来介绍一下。我觉得证监会一直是怀有慈父般地呵护市场发展的心态,但是我们必须意识到,每年中国有4000家左右的上市公司,其实很难完全尽职地做到对每一个公司都有深刻地了解。一方面你没有足够的精力、能力和人员去做深刻地调查;一方面整个社会又都认为,既然这个企业被你证监会审了,被你交易所审了,就意味着你认为它是家好企业,意味着我可以闭着眼睛买这支公司,从而造成道德风险——很多投资者应该自己承担的风险,但他不但不承担,还转嫁给监管者。这点和前两年在金融领域里推动的一个很重要的资管新规的改革类似,“买者自负,卖者有责”这8个字,意思是上市公司一定要披露信息,勤勉尽职。但前提仍然是买者自负,买者得知道那是你的钱,是你的风险,你得自己去调查一下这是不是一个好的企业。注册制最核心的是真正把投资者的责任感、专业知识,带入整个投资领域里面,这是非常健康的一个发展。第二点,最开始中国股市创建的一个重要的目标,是在90年代初期帮助国有企业进行体制改革、进行融资。我们必须意识到整个股市它是一个融资和投资结合在一起的市场。要想源源不断地有投资,一定是这些融资的企业给投资者带来了很好的投资收益。所以从这个意义上来讲,对于塑造我们中国资本市场的文化,提升中国企业的信息披露和公司治理能力,催生中国投资者群体的成熟,注册制都是非常关键不可或缺的一次根本性改革。“新股不败”的神话一去不复返马红漫:未来如果上市的企业融资挂牌变得越来越容易,那类似于这种新股不败的中国特色交易模式是不是也会被颠覆呢?朱宁:我个人觉得很有可能会发生根本性的改变。第一,如果我们完全实施注册制的话,很可能不是新股不败。而是新股必败。你只有很成功地挑选了那些非常好的上市公司之后,才能保证你在上市之后,你投资的公司能够跑赢其他已经上市的类似公司。第二点,我觉得这是一个比较漫长的转型过程。在国内,在任何一个市场比较火热的情况下,新股上市第一天有非常大的超额收益,也是一个比较普遍的国际现象,这个现象有两点是值得大家关注的:第一,有很强的周期性。第二,不同的公司它的议价差异很大。随着上市过程、IPO过程越来越市场化,越来越买者自负,新股不败的预期会逐渐发生调整。给90后投资者的一些投资建议马红漫:过去两三年的时间,作为普通投资者参与投资越来越难。从您研究的行为金融学的角度来看,您觉得投资者到底该如何去理财?朱宁:我觉得如果大家能够有这个意识,反而投资表现可能会更好一些。中了招或者暴了雷的,我觉得往往是因为对这个雷之前没有特别丰富和充分的了解。我在《投资者的朋友》里一直在强调,我们投资者要有一个多元化的投资理念,你千万别把所有的鸡蛋都放在同一个篮子里。我们在过去一段时间看到,今后5~10年的投资理念和环境和过去的5~10年可能是非常不同的。别简单地用过去5年的经验去套今后的5年。如果大家能够每一个资产都有一定的配置,都有一定的风险敞口的话,那么基本上是东方不亮西方亮。你可能不能保证一天长成个胖子,一天变成个首富,但是一定会持之以恒地在保值增值,在分享整个全球经济增长的红利。马红漫:您觉得本土效应该如何克服呢?朱宁:喜欢自己国家的股票,第一个原因是方便,第二是熟悉,第三是不了解,有一种风险的恐惧感。我有两个建议给大家。第一,我们并不一定真的需要了解那个公司,可以通过ETF、指数型基金,通过被动的配置方式来买。你只要把你自己20%的金融资产投在指数相关的基金公司提供的一个产品上面就可以。第二点,在已经有美国市场配置的前提下,更看好医疗,我就多配一些医疗的ETF;更看好金融,就多配置一些金融的ETF。随着国内金融的开放和创新,已经给咱们国内的投资者提供了海外市场的一个非常好的机会。马红漫:如何应对注册制改革后的风险?朱宁:现在上市的条件松了、上市企业多了、融资更容易了,整个风险确实是在变大。从行为金融这个方面,我有两点提示。第一,一定要克服自己的过度自信。但你一定得认识到,IPO上市是一个高度信息不对称的过程。在投资前一定要认真地想想,我究竟对这个企业了解多少,我和其他投资者相比,我究竟有什么优势和劣势。第二点,只有设立一个非常严苛的惩罚,才能对证券市场里的非法行为造成足够的威胁。证券市场实在离钱太近了,一旦有任何的操作,任何的违法行为,钱来得太容易了。只有严刑苛法,才能够制止和遏制这种非法行为的尝试。此外,随着原来千军万马勇过独木桥的现象发生改变之后,很可能会出现有公司不想上市。这其实是一个健康的,自然发展的方向。上市是一个成本很高的商业运作。在这个过程中,它的成本不只是说要合规要补税,一个很重要的点是你在上市过程之后,创始人是否能保证自己对公司的掌控。马红漫:很多人心理方面的缺陷问题导致在金融行为当中的问题,您觉得能克服这些问题吗?朱宁:第一,无论在中国的A股市场,还是美股市场,我们都发现如那些投资经验相对比较丰富的,金融从业经验比较丰富的,教育水平相对比较高的,收入水平相对比较高的投资者,相对受这些行为的影响要稍微弱一些。第二,我不会希望说是完全消除这种偏差。虽然不能保证你能够回避这些偏差。但是不了解这些偏差,就很容易就落入了资本市场的陷阱里面。学习的过程很重要,总有人说赚钱是最终极的修行。首先要能够认识到自己的贪婪和恐惧,然后要知道怎么控制。我希望投资者能够非常诚实地看待自己,要勇于承认我上次确实犯了这个错误。投资是一项反人性的活动。投资之所以很困难,恰恰在于它对你最熟悉,最自然的人性提出了挑战。马红漫:对于普通家庭来说,金融资产配置需要注意哪些问题?朱宁:我觉得中国居民家庭的金融资产今后十年可能会有非常巨大的发展趋势。在这个过程中要注意三点。第一,多元化投资。不要只盯着股票市场,还有债券市场、黄金、大宗商品、理财产品和信托等等,要有一个相对多元的配置。第二,了解自己的投资目标,不同的投资目标会导致不同的预期投资收益率,而每年预期的投资收益率又会对应不同的风险偏好。第三,对投资有基本的了解和观察。买股票就必须要准备好可能会有年化15%的波动率,你赚钱的时候可以赚30%,你亏钱时也有可能亏20%。马红漫:对90后的年轻人,您有什么资产配置建议呢?朱宁:第一,如果是一个30岁左右的投资者,我们一般会鼓励大概2/3左右的资产投资在股票市场,包括中国和全球的股市。大概有20%~30%投资在固定收益,或者债券类的资产。再有5%~10%留在现金或者可以投一定的黄金,这是一个比较标准的推荐。稍微保守一点,可能一半的资产投资在权益类股票类的资产里面,30%左右可能投资在固收类或者说理财类的产品。再有10%~15%可以选择黄金,作为对各种不同风险的对冲。至于在国内和全球之间,咱们不要特别把中国股市拿出来,就买一个叫MSCI明晟的全球指数,这样就把全球的股市都买了。在这个基础上我们还可以超配,比如说在整50%里面,可能中国在整个全球股市占大概1/4不到一些,所以你正常应该配10%。但是由于我们看好国内的股市,大家可以超配20%~30%。这个比例也不是一成不变的。如果说中国股市表现特别好,今年比如翻番了,那希望大家把整个这一部分的资产类别稍微降下来一点。有一段时间可能整个股市特别不好,反而希望大家逆向操作,可以增加一些对于权益类股票的投资和配置。房地产增值的获利空间会越来越小马红漫:中国人最关心房子的问题。对于个人投资者来说,房子这些固定资产未来还有投资的空间吗?朱宁:三个建议。第一,明确房子是为什么?房子究竟是为了自住,还是投资,要有一个清晰的答案。如果你是为了自住,那从长期来讲买一个房子是非常合理。第二,如果你希望通过房地产的增值来获利的话,我个人觉得获利的空间会越来越小。第三,把实体的资产金融化。房地产仍然是好的行业,但大家必须要意识到:第一,它平时的日常收益率很低;第二,房地产是一个流动性很差的资产;第三,你必须一下就把几百万的资金投进去,这也代表了你面对这个风险的敞口是非常大的。爆款基金不要追马红漫:我们作为普通投资者,应该去追这些爆款基金吗?朱宁:我个人建议大家不追。第一,往往爆款基金在发行的时候,是市场情绪比较火热,也是市场开始要接近顶部或者出现下跌风险的时候。第二,大量全球的实证证明,随着基金规模的扩大,基金的业绩是逐渐被侵蚀或者逐渐下降的。他今后能再给投资者带来超额收益的能力,是随着规模的扩大在下降的。第三,我们必须得知道这个爆款基金并不是随机产生。往往是市场公募基金管理公司在关注投资者,你们想买什么是我就推出什么爆款。这个时候你才追进这些板块,今后这些行业这些板块很可能风险会大过收益。我是希望大家不要砸锅卖铁去追那些爆款的基金。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1714,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3527667803686145","a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(the “Company”) (NYSE: DIDI), the world’s leading mobility technology platform, today announced that its board of directors (the “Board”) has authorized and supports the Company to undertake the necessary procedures and file the relevant application(s) for the delisting of the Company’s ADSs from the New York Stock Exchange, while ensuring that ADSs will be convertible into freely tradable shares of the Company on another internationally recognized stock exchange at the election of ADS holders. The Company will organize a shareholders meeting to vote on the above matter at an appropriate time in the future, following","listText":"有人辞官归故里,有人星夜赶科场。 经历重重考验好不容易才远赴美国上市的滴滴,这才半年光景,就要退市了,这真是屁股都没坐热乎就下来了啊。 滴滴官方声明,从今天开始要一边着手美股退市,一边申请港股上市。 滴滴官方微博发布 这是DIDI IR 原文说明: “BEIJING--(BUSINESS WIRE)--DiDi Global Inc. (the “Company”) (NYSE: DIDI), the world’s leading mobility technology platform, today announced that its board of directors (the “Board”) has authorized and supports the Company to undertake the necessary procedures and file the relevant application(s) for the delisting of the Company’s ADSs from the New York Stock Exchange, while ensuring that ADSs will be convertible into freely tradable shares of the Company on another internationally recognized stock exchange at the election of ADS holders. The Company will organize a shareholders meeting to vote on the above matter at an appropriate time in the future, following","text":"有人辞官归故里,有人星夜赶科场。 经历重重考验好不容易才远赴美国上市的滴滴,这才半年光景,就要退市了,这真是屁股都没坐热乎就下来了啊。 滴滴官方声明,从今天开始要一边着手美股退市,一边申请港股上市。 滴滴官方微博发布 这是DIDI IR 原文说明: “BEIJING--(BUSINESS WIRE)--DiDi Global Inc. (the “Company”) (NYSE: DIDI), the world’s leading mobility technology platform, today announced that its board of directors (the “Board”) has authorized and supports the Company to undertake the necessary procedures and file the relevant application(s) for the delisting of the Company’s ADSs from the New York Stock Exchange, while ensuring that ADSs will be convertible into freely tradable shares of the Company on another internationally recognized stock exchange at the election of ADS holders. 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