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2021-10-11

Ok//@Tongs: Ok

Visa Stock: Scalability And Buffett Value Line<blockquote>Visa股票：可扩展性和巴菲特价值线</blockquote>

2021-10-11

Ok

Visa Stock: Scalability And Buffett Value Line<blockquote>Visa股票：可扩展性和巴菲特价值线</blockquote>

2021-09-03

LETZ GOOOO

Meta Materials shares jumped 9.5% in premarket trading<blockquote>Meta Materials股价盘前交易上涨9.5%</blockquote>

2021-09-02

Oh wow

@话题虎:【故事会】17岁学生花30万玩“女仆桌游”，是轻娱乐or软色情？

2021-08-26

Okay

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-05

Weee

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-20

Okay

Goldman Says "Don't Buy This Dip" And Here's Why...<blockquote>高盛表示“不要逢低买入”，原因如下...</blockquote>

2021-07-16

Alright

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-15

Why so?

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-13

Wooo

Volkswagen's EV unit plans to double charging infrastructure by end of 2025<blockquote>大众汽车电动汽车部门计划到2025年底将充电基础设施增加一倍</blockquote>

2021-07-12

🤣 Don't know if should trust this article

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-06

Good job

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-01

Weeee

NIO delivered 8,083 vehicles in June 2021, increasing by 116.1% YOY<blockquote>蔚来2021年6月交付8083辆，同比增长116.1%</blockquote>

2021-06-28

Looks good

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-28

$Meta Materials Inc.(MMAT)$ time to reverse and rocket pls..

2021-06-21

Nice

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-18

Sounds bad

Orphazyme shares tumbled more than 60% in pre-market trading<blockquote>Orphazyme股价在盘前交易中暴跌超过60%</blockquote>

2021-06-17

Will btc rise once again?

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-16

Oh no

@小虎综合资讯:昨夜今晨：发生了什么？欧盟封杀十大金融巨头，美油创两年半新高

2021-06-15

Looks good

My 3 Favorite Stocks Right Now<blockquote>我现在最喜欢的3只股票</blockquote>

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3555822052484377\">@Tongs</a>: Ok","listText":"Ok//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3555822052484377\">@Tongs</a>: Ok","text":"Ok//@Tongs: Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/826950513","repostId":"1174273121","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174273121","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633965002,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1174273121?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-11 23:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Visa Stock: Scalability And Buffett Value Line<blockquote>Visa股票：可扩展性和巴菲特价值线</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174273121","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThis article analyzes Visa from the perspective of its profit sustainability and scalabilit","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>This article analyzes Visa from the perspective of its profit sustainability and scalability.</li>  <li>This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and the marginal efficiency of capital.</li>  <li>The results show that V not only earns a consistently high ROCE in the past but is still perfectly scalable at its current stage, indicating sustainable profit ahead.</li>  <li>Lastly, this article also discusses its valuation, especially valuation adjusted for ROCE compared to other stocks that enjoy superb scalability using what I call the Buffett value line.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4e9c2f1150ac54e1f764f98c0880f1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1039\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>本文从Visa的盈利可持续性和可扩展性的角度对其进行分析。</li><li>该分析考察了利润可持续性最重要的两个方面：已用资本回报率(“ROCE”)和资本边际效率。</li><li>结果表明，V不仅在过去获得了持续较高的ROCE，而且在当前阶段仍然具有完美的可扩展性，表明未来将实现可持续利润。</li><li>最后，本文还讨论了其估值，特别是与使用我看涨期权的巴菲特价值线享有卓越可扩展性的其他股票相比，根据ROCE调整的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>贾斯汀·沙利文/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> This article analyzes Visa Inc (V), with a focus on its profit sustainability and scalability. This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit Sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the most two important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the two most fundamental aspects of the same central issue of profit Sustainability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is SO FAR. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.</p><p><blockquote>本文分析Visa Inc(V)，重点关注其利润可持续性和可扩展性。该分析考察了利润可持续性最重要的两个方面：已用资本回报率(“ROCE”)和已用资本边际回报率(“MROCE”)。对我来说，ROCE和MROCE是分析企业最重要的两个指标。它们揭示了利润可持续性这一核心问题的两个最基本的方面。ROCE告诉我们该业务迄今为止的盈利能力。MROCE深入了解了盈利能力可能走向的方向。</blockquote></p><p> The results show that V not only earns a consistently high ROCE in the past but is still perfectly scalable at its current stage, indicating sustainable profit ahead. It is truly impressive for a business at such a staggering scale to maintain perfect scalability. Lastly, this article also discusses its valuation, especially valuation adjusted for ROCE and valuation compared to the other stocks that are exemplary scalable stocks (such as the FAAMG stocks and Buffett style stocks).</p><p><blockquote>结果表明，V不仅在过去获得了持续较高的ROCE，而且在当前阶段仍然具有完美的可扩展性，表明未来将实现可持续利润。对于规模如此惊人的企业来说，保持完美的可扩展性确实令人印象深刻。最后，本文还讨论了其估值，特别是根据ROCE调整的估值以及与其他示例性可扩展股票（例如FAAMG股票和巴菲特风格股票）相比的估值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The moat and the network effects</b></p><p><blockquote><b>护城河与网络效应</b></blockquote></p><p> V’s moat is in its scale and scalability, best demonstrated in the following two charts. The first chart shows the number of credit, debit, and prepaid cards in circulation worldwide from 2017 to 2019, with forecasts for 2023 and 2025. In 2019, there were 22.8 billion credit, debit, and prepaid cards in circulation worldwide. This figure is set to reach 29.31 billion by 2023, a 28% increase from the 2019 level. This figure will further increase to surpass 30 billion by 2025, a 34% increase from the 2019 level. In other words, the total cards in circulation will increase by more than 1/3 by 2025. The trend of digital transactions is unstoppable.</p><p><blockquote>V的护城河在于其规模和可扩展性，下面两张图表最好地展示了这一点。第一张图表显示了2017年至2019年全球流通的信用卡、借记卡和预付卡数量，并对2023年和2025年进行了预测。2019年，全球有228亿张信用卡、借记卡和预付卡在流通。到2023年，这一数字将达到293.1亿，比2019年的水平增长28%。到2025年，这一数字将进一步增加，超过300亿，比2019年的水平增长34%。也就是说，到2025年流通卡总量将增长1/3以上。数字化交易的趋势势不可挡。</blockquote></p><p> The second chart shows that V, as the leading player in this space, will benefit the most from this secular trend. V is the world’s largest retail electronic payments network providing processing services and payment product platforms. This includes credit, debit, prepaid, and commercial payments, which are offered under the Visa, Visa Electron, Interlink, and PLUS brands. Visa/PLUS is one of the largest global ATM networks. V facilitates digital payments across more than 200 countries and territories. It has 3.6 billion cards in circulation, about 16% of the total number of cards in circulation globally. It processes a mindboggling amount of transactions – 206 billion payment transactions and a total transaction volume of $12.5 trillion in 2020 – an undisputed dominance of the payment network.</p><p><blockquote>第二张图表显示，V作为该领域的领导者，将从这一长期趋势中受益最多。V是全球最大的零售电子支付网络，提供处理服务和支付产品平台。这包括信用卡、借记卡、预付费和商业支付，这些支付以Visa、Visa Electron、Interlink和PLUS品牌提供。Visa/PLUS是全球最大的ATM网络之一。V为200多个国家和地区的数字支付提供便利。它拥有36亿张流通卡，约占全球流通卡总数的16%。它处理了令人难以置信的交易量——2060亿笔支付交易，2020年总交易额为12.5万亿美元——这是支付网络无可争议的主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e261998de072e355b6f039912d0f1453\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/036bc8c94696fcfd8ed3403b699534c6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"318\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Visa USA.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：美国签证。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, it is unlikely that such dominance would change in the future (barring any major regulation or antitrust legislation change) due to the so-called \"network effects\". The network effects refer to the fact that the value of certain products or services increases as more people use them. In other words, certain networks become increasingly more valuable as they become bigger. Not every network enjoys this magic feature, and as a matter of fact, most networks suffer a diminishing marginal rate of return – i.e., the additional return decreases as the network becomes bigger – as to be elaborated later. A chain restaurant network is an example. As the network becomes larger, the nodes begin to compete against each other for customers and the return diminishes.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于所谓的“网络效应”，这种主导地位在未来不太可能改变（除非任何重大监管或反托拉斯法发生变化）。网络效应是指某些产品或服务的价值随着更多人使用而增加。换句话说，某些网络随着规模的扩大而变得越来越有价值。并不是每个网络都享有这种神奇的特性，事实上，大多数网络的边际回报率是递减的——即，额外回报随着网络变大而减少——这将在后面详细说明。连锁餐厅网络就是一个例子。随着网络变得更大，节点开始相互竞争客户，回报减少。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But certain networks, like the services V provides, enjoy this magic trait – the network becomes more profitable as it becomes bigger. There is nothing new about the concept. It was true of railways, telephones, and fax machines. All these examples share these common traits: A) the larger the network becomes, the more valuable it becomes (one segment of a railway linking city A and B is far more valuable when this segment also links to other railways linking other cities); and B) the larger the network becomes, the higher the switching cost (if everyone uses a fax machine and you do not want to use one, good luck to you).</p><p><blockquote>但某些网络，如V提供的服务，享有这种神奇的特性——网络越大，利润就越高。这个概念没有什么新意。铁路、电话和传真机都是如此。所有这些例子都有这些共同的特征：a）网络变得越大，它就变得越有价值（当连接城市A和B的铁路的一段也连接到连接其他城市的其他铁路时，这段铁路的价值要高得多）；B）网络越大，交换成本就越高（如果每个人都使用传真机，而你不想使用传真机，祝你好运）。</blockquote></p><p> Again, there is nothing new about the concept. But the internet age dramatically amplified the potency of the network effects. Once a lead is established – for whatever the reason – the network effects would just kick in, take over, and compound itself.</p><p><blockquote>同样，这个概念没有什么新意。但是互联网时代极大地放大了网络效应的威力。一旦建立了线索——不管出于什么原因——网络效应就会开始发挥作用，接管并自我复合。</blockquote></p><p> It is a self-sustaining positive feedback loop: more users in this network will lead to more convenience, better efficiency, lower cost, which will make the network even better and more valuable for its users and clients, which will, in turn, attract more new users and clients to join and make it harder for existing users to leave, which again will lead back to more users and an even larger network. And such feedback will be reflected in a very high level of return on capital employed (“ROCE”) as to be seen later.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个自我维持的正反馈循环：这个网络中更多的用户将带来更多的便利、更好的效率、更低的成本，这将使网络对其用户和客户更好、更有价值，这反过来将吸引更多的新用户和客户加入，并使现有用户更难离开，这将再次导致更多的用户和更大的网络。这种反馈将反映在非常高的已用资本回报率（“ROCE”）中，这将在后面看到。</blockquote></p><p> Unfortunately, like all good things eventually run to an end, so do the benefits of the above network effects. At some point, gravity always catches up, and return begins to diminish. In the railway example, if enough railways have already been built to link all cities with high population density, building the next segment would suffer a diminished return now. In the fax machine example, if every office already has one, adding a second one to each office would also suffer a diminished return.</p><p><blockquote>不幸的是，就像所有美好的事情最终都会结束一样，上述网络效应的好处也会结束。在某些时候，重力总是赶上来，回报开始减少。在铁路的例子中，如果已经建造了足够多的铁路来连接所有人口密度高的城市，那么现在建造下一段铁路的回报将会减少。在传真机的例子中，如果每个办公室都已经有一台传真机，那么在每个办公室增加第二台传真机也会减少回报。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, as investors, we do not only need to examine the ROCE, but also equally importantly, to examine the marginal return. Because the marginal return tells us if the business is still in a scalable stage, or if the business has already passed the tipping point of scalability and begins to see a diminishing return. In another word, MROCE let us see if the gravity of diminishing return has caught up yet or not.</p><p><blockquote>因此，作为投资者，我们不仅要考察ROCE，同样重要的是要考察边际收益。因为边际回报告诉我们业务是否仍处于可扩展阶段，或者业务是否已经过了可扩展性的临界点，开始出现收益递减。换句话说，MROCE让我们看看收益递减的严重性是否已经赶上了。</blockquote></p><p> And the remainder of this article will examine both aspects next.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，本文的其余部分将研究这两个方面。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Return on capital employed (“ROCE”)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>已动用资本回报率（“ROCE”）</b></blockquote></p><p> ROCE stands for the return on capital employed. Note that ROCE is different from the return on equity (and more fundamental and important in my view). ROCE considers the return of capital ACTUALLY employed, and therefore provides insight into how effectively the business uses its capital to earn a profit. Readers interested in the details of the ROCE analysis can find them in my&nbsp;earlier article. Here I will just summarize the results in the chart below. In these results, I considered the following items capital actually employed A) Working capital (including payables, receivables, inventory), B) Gross Property, Plant, and Equipment, C) Research and development expenses are capitalized, and D) the intangible book value, mainly consisting of intellectual property and patents for such a business.</p><p><blockquote>ROCE代表已用资本回报率。请注意，ROCE不同于股本回报率（在我看来更基本、更重要）。ROCE考虑实际使用的资本回报，因此可以深入了解企业如何有效地利用其资本赚取利润。对ROCE分析细节感兴趣的读者可以在我之前的文章中找到。在这里，我将在下面的图表中总结结果。在这些结果中，我考虑了实际使用的以下项目资本a)营运资本（包括应付账款、应收账款、存货），B)不动产、厂房和设备总额，C)资本化的研发费用，以及D)无形账面价值，主要包括此类业务的知识产权和专利。</blockquote></p><p> As seen, it was able to maintain an astronomical level of ROCE over the past decade: on average ~103%. To put things in perspective, the next chart compares V’s ROCE against the FAAMG stocks – a group of businesses that exploits the network effects to the extreme. As can be seen, V earns a very competitive ROCE among them – only second to Apple (AAPL). Every $1 of earning reinvested will fuel more than $1 of additional future earnings growth on average.</p><p><blockquote>正如所见，它在过去十年中能够保持天文数字的ROCE水平：平均约103%。为了正确看待事情，下图将V的ROCE与FAAMG股票进行了比较，FAAMG股票是一组将网络效应发挥到极致的企业。可以看出，V在其中获得了极具竞争力的ROCE——仅次于苹果(AAPL)。平均而言，每1美元的收益再投资将推动超过1美元的未来收益增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/877e3bb73de3e6c4fbab1a0133f74464\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"380\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f25b4c6dc0c7ee738ac345c3888ae11\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Introduction to marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”)</p><p><blockquote>边际资本回报率（“边际资本回报率”）简介</blockquote></p><p> In addition to ROCE, an equally important concept is the marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the most two important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the most fundamental two aspects of the same central issue of profitability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is SO FAR. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.</p><p><blockquote>除了ROCE之外，一个同样重要的概念是边际资本回报率（“MROCE”）。对我来说，ROCE和MROCE是分析企业最重要的两个指标。它们揭示了盈利能力这个核心问题的最基本的两个方面。ROCE告诉我们该业务迄今为止的盈利能力。MROCE深入了解了盈利能力可能走向的方向。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A bit of background and introduction for readers who are new to the concept. For readers familiar with the concept already, definitely skip this section. From what I’ve learned, the legendary economist John Maynard Keynes first explicitly expressed this concept, although people before him have observed and thought about it for some time already. What the concept tries to capture is a basic law in economic activities: the law of diminishing returns. Warren Buffett likes to say that interest rate acts like gravity on all economic activities. Well, diminishing returns act like gravity on all economic activities too, if not more so, as long as human nature does not change in any fundamental way.</p><p><blockquote>为不熟悉这个概念的读者提供一点背景和介绍。对于已经熟悉这个概念的读者来说，一定要跳过这一部分。据我所知，传奇经济学家约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯首先明确表达了这个概念，尽管在他之前的人已经观察和思考了一段时间。这个概念试图捕捉的是经济活动中的一个基本规律：收益递减规律。沃伦·巴菲特喜欢说，利率就像重力一样影响所有经济活动。嗯，只要人性不发生任何根本性的变化，收益递减对所有经济活动也有引力作用，如果不是更大的话。</blockquote></p><p> The next chart illustrates the concept. As long as shareholders are seeking profit, a public business will first invest its money at projects with the highest possible rate of return (i.e., picking the lowest hanging apples first or getting the most bang for the buck first). Therefore, the first batch of available resources is invested at a high rate of return – the highest the business can possibly identify. The second batch of money will have to be invested at a somewhat lower rate of return since the best ideas have been taken by the first batch of resources already, and so on. The last batch of money invested may earn a rate of return that is only above the cost of capital. And finally, the end result is a declining MROCE curve as shown.</p><p><blockquote>下一个图表说明了这个概念。只要股东寻求利润，上市企业就会首先将资金投资于回报率最高的项目（即，先摘最低的苹果或先获得最大的回报）。因此，第一批可用资源的投资回报率很高——企业可能确定的最高回报率。第二批资金将不得不以较低的回报率进行投资，因为最好的想法已经被第一批资源采纳了，等等。最后一批投入的钱可能会获得仅高于资金成本的回报率。最后，最终结果是如图所示下降的MROCE曲线。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1cd59ec1a6da411c303c2bbccaf2425\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"460\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The ROCE we normally talk about and companies report refers to the average of this curve – averaging the return on all batches of money invested. Obviously, the average is very useful information by itself. It tells us how efficiently the business has been converting resources into profit so far – but its limitation is that it only tells us the efficiency of the resources that have already been invested SO FAR. What is of equal importance to investors is the MROCE, which tells us how much incremental profit the business WILL generate when the next batch of resources are invested.</p><p><blockquote>我们通常谈论和公司报告的ROCE指的是这条曲线的平均值——平均所有批次投资的回报。显然，平均值本身就是非常有用的信息。它告诉我们企业到目前为止将资源转化为利润的效率——但它的局限性在于，它只告诉我们到目前为止已经投入的资源的效率。对投资者同样重要的是MROCE，它告诉我们下一批资源投入时，业务会产生多少增量利润。</blockquote></p><p> For investors, a dream business to invest in would be a business that enjoys a flat MROCE curve as shown by the solid blue line. This would be a business that is perfectly scalable. A business that earns a consistent and stable profit for every batch of resources invested. However, such a business is really only a dream business. I mentioned earlier that diminishing returns act like gravity on all economic activities - because they really do. There has been no business (at least not so far in human history) that can keep growing while at the same time maintaining a constant return on capital. At some point, gravity always catches up and the return begins to decline (as shown by the dashed blue line).</p><p><blockquote>对于投资者来说，梦想投资的企业是拥有平坦MROCE曲线的企业，如蓝色实线所示。这将是一个完全可扩展的业务。每投入一批资源都能获得持续稳定利润的企业。然而，这样的生意真的只是梦中生意。我之前提到过，收益递减对所有经济活动都有引力作用——因为它们确实如此。从来没有一个企业（至少在人类历史上没有）能够在保持资本回报率的同时保持增长。在某些时候，重力总是赶上来，回报开始下降（如蓝色虚线所示）。</blockquote></p><p> V’s MROCE</p><p><blockquote>V的MROCE</blockquote></p><p> So for investors, the next best deal is to invest in a business that A) has a high and stable ROCE, and B) that is still in the scalable stage (the gravity of diminishing return has not caught up yet). And as shown in the next chart, V seems to be such a business at such a stage.</p><p><blockquote>因此，对于投资者来说，下一个最好的交易是投资a）具有高且稳定的ROCE，B）仍处于可扩展阶段（回报递减的严重性尚未赶上）的企业。而如下图所示，V在这样一个阶段似乎就是这样一个业务。</blockquote></p><p> This chart shows the MROCE and ROCE for V over recent years. The ROCE data are the same as those shown in the previous section. The MROCE data are estimated by the following steps. First, the capital employed was calculated for each year. Second, the earnings were calculated each year. Third, then the incremental of capital employed year over year was calculated. Similarly, the incremental earnings year over year were also calculated. And finally, the ratio between the incremental earnings and incremental capital employed was calculated to approximate the MROCE. During years when there were large fluctuations in either the incremental earnings or the capital employed, a multi-year running average was taken to smooth the fluctuations.</p><p><blockquote>这张图表显示了近年来V的MROCE和ROCE。ROCE数据与上一节所示相同。通过以下步骤估计MROCE数据。首先，计算每年使用的资本。其次，每年计算收益。第三，计算每年使用的资本增量。同样，还计算了同比增量收益。最后，计算增量收益和增量资本使用之间的比率以近似MROCE。在增量盈利或资本使用波动较大的年度，采用多年运行平均法来平滑波动。</blockquote></p><p> Before we began to interpret the results, let me first clarify the difficulties of analyzing marginal return on capital and the limitations of the approach I used here. Firstly, it is just mathematically much harder to estimate the rate of change (e.g., which is what MROCE is essentially is) than the average change (which is what ROCE is essentially is). Estimating the latter involves dividing two large numbers and the uncertainties are small. Estimating the former requires dividing two small numbers and the uncertainties in the financial data can be magnified. Secondly, some capital investments in a business can take multiple years (more than 3 years) to bear fruit (or to fail). Therefore, isolating and tracking the marginal return produced by investments made in a given year is inherently difficult. Although most of the projects should begin to show results (either good or bad) in 3 years and this approach should be able to capture the dominating trend of marginal return.</p><p><blockquote>在我们开始解释结果之前，让我首先澄清分析边际资本回报率的困难以及我在这里使用的方法的局限性。首先，从数学上讲，估计变化率（例如，MROCE本质上是什么）比平均变化（ROCE本质上是什么）要困难得多。估计后者需要除以两个大数，不确定性很小。估计前者需要除以两个小数字，财务数据中的不确定性可以被放大。其次，对企业的一些资本投资可能需要多年（超过3年）才能取得成果（或失败）。因此，隔离和跟踪某一年投资产生的边际回报本质上是困难的。尽管大多数项目应该在3年内开始显示结果（无论是好的还是坏的），并且这种方法应该能够捕捉边际回报的主导趋势。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> With the above understanding, let’s look at the results closely. First, note that the extraordinarily high MROCE during the early part of the decade again provides a strong illustration of the network effects and the secular trend that support the business at a fundamental level. The business model is just too good.</p><p><blockquote>有了以上的了解，我们来仔细看看结果。首先，请注意，本世纪初极高的MROCE再次有力地说明了从根本上支持业务的网络效应和长期趋势。商业模式太好了。</blockquote></p><p> The results in the chart also show that at this stage, V has been actually able to maintain an MROCE that actually is higher than the average ROCE in recent years. As seen, the ROCE has been on average 103% in recent years, and the MROCE has been on average 157%. It was significantly lower than the 350+% level in the earlier part of the decade – gravity always tries to catch up. But it is still higher than the ROCE by a good margin. And the gap is more than 50%, too large to be caused by the uncertainties in the financial data and rounding off errors. So this result suggests that V has not entered a stage of diminishing return yet - gravity has not caught up yet. And if the current MROCE continues, V’s ROCE will maintain its current high level or even further expand.</p><p><blockquote>图表中的结果还显示，在这个阶段，V实际上能够保持实际上高于近年来平均ROCE的MROCE。可以看出，近年来ROCE平均为103%，MROCE平均为157%。这明显低于本世纪初350%以上的水平——重力总是试图迎头赶上。但仍远高于ROCE。而且差距超过50%，太大了，不可能是财务数据的不确定性和舍入误差造成的。所以这个结果表明V还没有进入收益递减阶段——重力还没有赶上。而如果目前的MROCE继续下去，V的ROCE将维持目前的高水平，甚至进一步扩大。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cea9c214b6d0dd15d8f9c5c1392272e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha data.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha数据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> After the above discussion of its profitability sustainability, let’s look at the valuation. At its current price levels, V’s PE is about 44x and FW PE is about 39.6x. The valuation is both high in absolute terms and also high in relative terms. For example, when compared to the FAAMG pack, V’s current valuation is only lower than Amazon (AMZN) in terms of the PE multiple and higher than all the others.</p><p><blockquote>以上讨论完其盈利持续性，我们再来看看估值。在目前的价格水平上，V的PE约为44倍，FW PE约为39.6倍。估值无论是绝对值还是相对值都很高。例如，与FAAMG pack相比，V目前的估值仅低于亚马逊(AMZN)的市盈率，高于所有其他公司。</blockquote></p><p> It is not that meaningful to discuss valuation in isolation and without adjusting for the quality of the business. The next chart therefore also compares V valuation adjusted for its ROCE with its peers. If you are familiar with Buffett’s holdings, you would recognize that the stocks in this chart represent some of the large BRK holdings.</p><p><blockquote>如果不根据业务质量进行调整，孤立地讨论估值是没有意义的。因此，下一张图表还将根据ROCE调整后的V估值与同行进行了比较。如果您熟悉巴菲特的持股，您就会认识到这张图表中的股票代表了BRK的一些大型持股。</blockquote></p><p> I am not sure what the picture will look like as we add more data points on this chart (I do plan to organize my notes on other BRK major holdings and add more data points onto this plot). But with the few data points I have now, I cannot help drawing/seeing the green line - what I call a Buffett value line. It is a line linking AbbVie Inc (ABBV) and AAPL - a good business at a good price and a high-quality business at a high price. So from a value investor point of view, it only makes sense to make investments along this line or below it. Because investment along this line or below represents a trade-off between quality and price that is equivalent or better than ABBV or AAPL. It makes no sense to invest above this line, as anything above this line represents an inferior trade-off between quality and price - we'd be better off just investing in ABBV and AAPL.</p><p><blockquote>我不确定当我们在这张图表上添加更多数据点时，情况会是什么样子（我确实计划组织我对其他BRK主要持股的笔记，并在这张图表上添加更多数据点）。但凭借我现在掌握的几个数据点，我忍不住画出/看到了绿线——我看涨期权的巴菲特价值线。它是连接艾伯维公司（ABBV）和苹果公司的一条线——物美价廉的好企业和高价的高质量企业。因此，从价值投资者的角度来看，只有沿着这条线或低于这条线进行投资才有意义。因为沿着这条线或以下的投资代表了质量和价格之间的权衡，相当于或优于ABBV或AAPL。投资高于这条线是没有意义的，因为高于这条线的任何东西都代表着质量和价格之间的劣质权衡——我们最好只投资ABBV和AAPL。</blockquote></p><p> As you can see, V is currently way above the green line, showing a valuation that is only expensive by itself, but also when adjusted for its ROCE – even if it is superb ROCE.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，V目前远高于绿线，表明其估值不仅本身昂贵，而且在根据其ROCE进行调整后也很昂贵——即使它的ROCE非常出色。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e9fbfdb9a53f0dac2386fcfaf067800\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha data.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha数据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Catalysts and risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>催化剂和风险</b></blockquote></p><p> The long-term catalyst is the trend of digital transactions as mentioned at the beginning of the article. In my view, this trend is unstoppable. The expansive deployment of e-commerce platforms will further accelerate this transition.</p><p><blockquote>长期催化剂是文章开头提到的数字化交易趋势。在我看来，这个趋势是不可阻挡的。电子商务平台的广泛部署将进一步加速这一转变。</blockquote></p><p> The most significant catalyst and also a risk at the same time in the near term is the direction and the pace of the economic recovery. If economic activities and especially travel activities resume to their normal level, V will benefit significantly, as commented by the CFO:</p><p><blockquote>短期内最重要的催化剂，同时也是风险，是经济复苏的方向和步伐。正如首席财务官所评论的，如果经济活动，尤其是旅游活动恢复到正常水平，V将受益匪浅：</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   \"We have seen immediate impacts since popular travel destinations opened their borders. Greece opened borders in April, and inbound card-present spend rose nearly 30 points by the end of June relative to 2019 levels. France opened on June 9, and inbound card-present volumes rose nearly 20 points by the end of June relative to 2019 ... Since April, card-present cross-border spend in Mexico from the U.S. rose nearly 50 points to over 170% of 2019 levels.\"    <i>Vasant Prabhu, Visa CFO (Q3 FY21 earnings call)</i>  In terms of risks, I see a valuation risk here as aforementioned. In terms of business fundamentals, I really do not see any risks in the near- or even long-term. The economic recovery from the pandemic mentioned above is not really a fundamental risk in my view. Even if it develops in the wrong direction and/or at a pace slower than expected, it is at most a temporary hiccup for V. The business model is too robust and too scalable. In the really long term, we can only speculate. The disruption from Fintechs and Crypto currency must be a potential risk in the long term. I suggest readers interested in these discussions to read the analysis published by&nbsp;Natalie Koo.</p><p><blockquote>“自从热门旅游目的地开放边境以来，我们已经看到了直接的影响。希腊在4月份开放了边境，到6月底，入境持卡消费相对于2019年的水平增长了近30个百分点。法国于6月9日开放，截至6月底，入境持卡量相对于2019年增长了近20个百分点...自4月份以来，从美国到墨西哥的持卡跨境消费增长了近50个百分点，达到2019年水平的170%以上。”<i>Vasant Prabhu，Visa首席财务官（2021财年第三季度看涨期权收益）</i>就风险而言，我看到了前面提到的估值风险。就业务基本面而言，我确实认为短期甚至长期没有任何风险。在我看来，上述疫情的经济复苏并不是真正的根本性风险。即使它朝着错误的方向发展和/或以比预期更慢的速度发展，对V来说也最多是暂时的打嗝。商业模式太健壮，可扩展性太强。从真正的长期来看，我们只能猜测。从长远来看，金融科技和加密货币的破坏肯定是一个潜在的风险。我建议对这些讨论感兴趣的读者阅读Natalie Koo发表的分析。</blockquote></p><p> Conclusion and final thought</p><p><blockquote>结论和最后的思考</blockquote></p><p> This article analyzes Visa Inc (V), with a focus on its profit sustainability and scalability. This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit Sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the most two important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the two most fundamental aspects of the same central issue of profit Sustainability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is SO FAR. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.</p><p><blockquote>本文分析Visa Inc(V)，重点关注其利润可持续性和可扩展性。该分析考察了利润可持续性最重要的两个方面：已用资本回报率(“ROCE”)和已用资本边际回报率(“MROCE”)。对我来说，ROCE和MROCE是分析企业最重要的两个指标。它们揭示了利润可持续性这一核心问题的两个最基本的方面。ROCE告诉我们该业务迄今为止的盈利能力。MROCE深入了解了盈利能力可能走向的方向。</blockquote></p><p> The results show that:</p><p><blockquote>结果表明：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>V not only earns a consistently high ROCE in the past but is still perfectly scalable at its current stage, indicating sustainable profit ahead.</li>  <li>The ROCE has been on average about 103% and compares very favorably against overachievers which are exemplary scalable stocks.</li>  <li>And the MROCE has been on average 157% in recent years. So this result suggests that V has not reached the stage of diminishing return yet - gravity has not caught up yet. It is truly impressive for a business at such a staggering scale (which processes $15 trillion of transaction volume last year) to still maintain perfect scalability.</li>  <li>Lastly, this article also discusses its valuation, especially valuation adjusted for ROCE compared to other stocks that enjoy superb scalability using what I call the Buffett value line. V is currently way above the value line, showing its valuation to be only expensive by itself, but also when adjusted for its ROCE – even if it is superb ROCE.</li> </ul> As such, my final verdict is that it is still a perfectly scalable business, but it is more than perfectly priced. Investment at this point will take some time, patience, and commitment for the growth to catch up with the valuation. It is only for long-term committed investors (with at least 5+ years of time horizon) who could hold to it and sit out any potential near-term valuation volatilities.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>V不仅在过去获得了持续较高的ROCE，而且在当前阶段仍然具有完美的可扩展性，表明未来将实现可持续利润。</li><li>ROCE平均约为103%，与表现优异的股票（典型的可扩展股票）相比非常有利。</li><li>近年来MROCE平均为157%。所以这个结果表明V还没有达到收益递减的阶段——重力还没有赶上。对于规模如此惊人（去年处理了15万亿美元的交易量）的企业来说，仍然保持完美的可扩展性确实令人印象深刻。</li><li>最后，本文还讨论了其估值，特别是与使用我看涨期权的巴菲特价值线享有卓越可扩展性的其他股票相比，根据ROCE调整的估值。V目前远高于价值线，这表明其估值不仅本身昂贵，而且在根据ROCE进行调整后也很昂贵——即使它的ROCE非常出色。</li></ul>因此，我的最终结论是，它仍然是一个完全可扩展的业务，但它的定价不仅仅是完美的。此时的投资需要一些时间、耐心和承诺，让增长赶上估值。它只适合长期承诺的投资者（至少有5年以上的时间范围），他们可以坚持下去，不受任何潜在的近期估值波动的影响。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Visa Stock: Scalability And Buffett Value Line<blockquote>Visa股票：可扩展性和巴菲特价值线</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nVisa Stock: Scalability And Buffett Value Line<blockquote>Visa股票：可扩展性和巴菲特价值线</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-11 23:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>This article analyzes Visa from the perspective of its profit sustainability and scalability.</li>  <li>This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and the marginal efficiency of capital.</li>  <li>The results show that V not only earns a consistently high ROCE in the past but is still perfectly scalable at its current stage, indicating sustainable profit ahead.</li>  <li>Lastly, this article also discusses its valuation, especially valuation adjusted for ROCE compared to other stocks that enjoy superb scalability using what I call the Buffett value line.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4e9c2f1150ac54e1f764f98c0880f1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1039\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>本文从Visa的盈利可持续性和可扩展性的角度对其进行分析。</li><li>该分析考察了利润可持续性最重要的两个方面：已用资本回报率(“ROCE”)和资本边际效率。</li><li>结果表明，V不仅在过去获得了持续较高的ROCE，而且在当前阶段仍然具有完美的可扩展性，表明未来将实现可持续利润。</li><li>最后，本文还讨论了其估值，特别是与使用我看涨期权的巴菲特价值线享有卓越可扩展性的其他股票相比，根据ROCE调整的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>贾斯汀·沙利文/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> This article analyzes Visa Inc (V), with a focus on its profit sustainability and scalability. This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit Sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the most two important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the two most fundamental aspects of the same central issue of profit Sustainability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is SO FAR. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.</p><p><blockquote>本文分析Visa Inc(V)，重点关注其利润可持续性和可扩展性。该分析考察了利润可持续性最重要的两个方面：已用资本回报率(“ROCE”)和已用资本边际回报率(“MROCE”)。对我来说，ROCE和MROCE是分析企业最重要的两个指标。它们揭示了利润可持续性这一核心问题的两个最基本的方面。ROCE告诉我们该业务迄今为止的盈利能力。MROCE深入了解了盈利能力可能走向的方向。</blockquote></p><p> The results show that V not only earns a consistently high ROCE in the past but is still perfectly scalable at its current stage, indicating sustainable profit ahead. It is truly impressive for a business at such a staggering scale to maintain perfect scalability. Lastly, this article also discusses its valuation, especially valuation adjusted for ROCE and valuation compared to the other stocks that are exemplary scalable stocks (such as the FAAMG stocks and Buffett style stocks).</p><p><blockquote>结果表明，V不仅在过去获得了持续较高的ROCE，而且在当前阶段仍然具有完美的可扩展性，表明未来将实现可持续利润。对于规模如此惊人的企业来说，保持完美的可扩展性确实令人印象深刻。最后，本文还讨论了其估值，特别是根据ROCE调整的估值以及与其他示例性可扩展股票（例如FAAMG股票和巴菲特风格股票）相比的估值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The moat and the network effects</b></p><p><blockquote><b>护城河与网络效应</b></blockquote></p><p> V’s moat is in its scale and scalability, best demonstrated in the following two charts. The first chart shows the number of credit, debit, and prepaid cards in circulation worldwide from 2017 to 2019, with forecasts for 2023 and 2025. In 2019, there were 22.8 billion credit, debit, and prepaid cards in circulation worldwide. This figure is set to reach 29.31 billion by 2023, a 28% increase from the 2019 level. This figure will further increase to surpass 30 billion by 2025, a 34% increase from the 2019 level. In other words, the total cards in circulation will increase by more than 1/3 by 2025. The trend of digital transactions is unstoppable.</p><p><blockquote>V的护城河在于其规模和可扩展性，下面两张图表最好地展示了这一点。第一张图表显示了2017年至2019年全球流通的信用卡、借记卡和预付卡数量，并对2023年和2025年进行了预测。2019年，全球有228亿张信用卡、借记卡和预付卡在流通。到2023年，这一数字将达到293.1亿，比2019年的水平增长28%。到2025年，这一数字将进一步增加，超过300亿，比2019年的水平增长34%。也就是说，到2025年流通卡总量将增长1/3以上。数字化交易的趋势势不可挡。</blockquote></p><p> The second chart shows that V, as the leading player in this space, will benefit the most from this secular trend. V is the world’s largest retail electronic payments network providing processing services and payment product platforms. This includes credit, debit, prepaid, and commercial payments, which are offered under the Visa, Visa Electron, Interlink, and PLUS brands. Visa/PLUS is one of the largest global ATM networks. V facilitates digital payments across more than 200 countries and territories. It has 3.6 billion cards in circulation, about 16% of the total number of cards in circulation globally. It processes a mindboggling amount of transactions – 206 billion payment transactions and a total transaction volume of $12.5 trillion in 2020 – an undisputed dominance of the payment network.</p><p><blockquote>第二张图表显示，V作为该领域的领导者，将从这一长期趋势中受益最多。V是全球最大的零售电子支付网络，提供处理服务和支付产品平台。这包括信用卡、借记卡、预付费和商业支付，这些支付以Visa、Visa Electron、Interlink和PLUS品牌提供。Visa/PLUS是全球最大的ATM网络之一。V为200多个国家和地区的数字支付提供便利。它拥有36亿张流通卡，约占全球流通卡总数的16%。它处理了令人难以置信的交易量——2060亿笔支付交易，2020年总交易额为12.5万亿美元——这是支付网络无可争议的主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e261998de072e355b6f039912d0f1453\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/036bc8c94696fcfd8ed3403b699534c6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"318\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Visa USA.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：美国签证。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, it is unlikely that such dominance would change in the future (barring any major regulation or antitrust legislation change) due to the so-called \"network effects\". The network effects refer to the fact that the value of certain products or services increases as more people use them. In other words, certain networks become increasingly more valuable as they become bigger. Not every network enjoys this magic feature, and as a matter of fact, most networks suffer a diminishing marginal rate of return – i.e., the additional return decreases as the network becomes bigger – as to be elaborated later. A chain restaurant network is an example. As the network becomes larger, the nodes begin to compete against each other for customers and the return diminishes.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于所谓的“网络效应”，这种主导地位在未来不太可能改变（除非任何重大监管或反托拉斯法发生变化）。网络效应是指某些产品或服务的价值随着更多人使用而增加。换句话说，某些网络随着规模的扩大而变得越来越有价值。并不是每个网络都享有这种神奇的特性，事实上，大多数网络的边际回报率是递减的——即，额外回报随着网络变大而减少——这将在后面详细说明。连锁餐厅网络就是一个例子。随着网络变得更大，节点开始相互竞争客户，回报减少。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But certain networks, like the services V provides, enjoy this magic trait – the network becomes more profitable as it becomes bigger. There is nothing new about the concept. It was true of railways, telephones, and fax machines. All these examples share these common traits: A) the larger the network becomes, the more valuable it becomes (one segment of a railway linking city A and B is far more valuable when this segment also links to other railways linking other cities); and B) the larger the network becomes, the higher the switching cost (if everyone uses a fax machine and you do not want to use one, good luck to you).</p><p><blockquote>但某些网络，如V提供的服务，享有这种神奇的特性——网络越大，利润就越高。这个概念没有什么新意。铁路、电话和传真机都是如此。所有这些例子都有这些共同的特征：a）网络变得越大，它就变得越有价值（当连接城市A和B的铁路的一段也连接到连接其他城市的其他铁路时，这段铁路的价值要高得多）；B）网络越大，交换成本就越高（如果每个人都使用传真机，而你不想使用传真机，祝你好运）。</blockquote></p><p> Again, there is nothing new about the concept. But the internet age dramatically amplified the potency of the network effects. Once a lead is established – for whatever the reason – the network effects would just kick in, take over, and compound itself.</p><p><blockquote>同样，这个概念没有什么新意。但是互联网时代极大地放大了网络效应的威力。一旦建立了线索——不管出于什么原因——网络效应就会开始发挥作用，接管并自我复合。</blockquote></p><p> It is a self-sustaining positive feedback loop: more users in this network will lead to more convenience, better efficiency, lower cost, which will make the network even better and more valuable for its users and clients, which will, in turn, attract more new users and clients to join and make it harder for existing users to leave, which again will lead back to more users and an even larger network. And such feedback will be reflected in a very high level of return on capital employed (“ROCE”) as to be seen later.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个自我维持的正反馈循环：这个网络中更多的用户将带来更多的便利、更好的效率、更低的成本，这将使网络对其用户和客户更好、更有价值，这反过来将吸引更多的新用户和客户加入，并使现有用户更难离开，这将再次导致更多的用户和更大的网络。这种反馈将反映在非常高的已用资本回报率（“ROCE”）中，这将在后面看到。</blockquote></p><p> Unfortunately, like all good things eventually run to an end, so do the benefits of the above network effects. At some point, gravity always catches up, and return begins to diminish. In the railway example, if enough railways have already been built to link all cities with high population density, building the next segment would suffer a diminished return now. In the fax machine example, if every office already has one, adding a second one to each office would also suffer a diminished return.</p><p><blockquote>不幸的是，就像所有美好的事情最终都会结束一样，上述网络效应的好处也会结束。在某些时候，重力总是赶上来，回报开始减少。在铁路的例子中，如果已经建造了足够多的铁路来连接所有人口密度高的城市，那么现在建造下一段铁路的回报将会减少。在传真机的例子中，如果每个办公室都已经有一台传真机，那么在每个办公室增加第二台传真机也会减少回报。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, as investors, we do not only need to examine the ROCE, but also equally importantly, to examine the marginal return. Because the marginal return tells us if the business is still in a scalable stage, or if the business has already passed the tipping point of scalability and begins to see a diminishing return. In another word, MROCE let us see if the gravity of diminishing return has caught up yet or not.</p><p><blockquote>因此，作为投资者，我们不仅要考察ROCE，同样重要的是要考察边际收益。因为边际回报告诉我们业务是否仍处于可扩展阶段，或者业务是否已经过了可扩展性的临界点，开始出现收益递减。换句话说，MROCE让我们看看收益递减的严重性是否已经赶上了。</blockquote></p><p> And the remainder of this article will examine both aspects next.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，本文的其余部分将研究这两个方面。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Return on capital employed (“ROCE”)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>已动用资本回报率（“ROCE”）</b></blockquote></p><p> ROCE stands for the return on capital employed. Note that ROCE is different from the return on equity (and more fundamental and important in my view). ROCE considers the return of capital ACTUALLY employed, and therefore provides insight into how effectively the business uses its capital to earn a profit. Readers interested in the details of the ROCE analysis can find them in my&nbsp;earlier article. Here I will just summarize the results in the chart below. In these results, I considered the following items capital actually employed A) Working capital (including payables, receivables, inventory), B) Gross Property, Plant, and Equipment, C) Research and development expenses are capitalized, and D) the intangible book value, mainly consisting of intellectual property and patents for such a business.</p><p><blockquote>ROCE代表已用资本回报率。请注意，ROCE不同于股本回报率（在我看来更基本、更重要）。ROCE考虑实际使用的资本回报，因此可以深入了解企业如何有效地利用其资本赚取利润。对ROCE分析细节感兴趣的读者可以在我之前的文章中找到。在这里，我将在下面的图表中总结结果。在这些结果中，我考虑了实际使用的以下项目资本a)营运资本（包括应付账款、应收账款、存货），B)不动产、厂房和设备总额，C)资本化的研发费用，以及D)无形账面价值，主要包括此类业务的知识产权和专利。</blockquote></p><p> As seen, it was able to maintain an astronomical level of ROCE over the past decade: on average ~103%. To put things in perspective, the next chart compares V’s ROCE against the FAAMG stocks – a group of businesses that exploits the network effects to the extreme. As can be seen, V earns a very competitive ROCE among them – only second to Apple (AAPL). Every $1 of earning reinvested will fuel more than $1 of additional future earnings growth on average.</p><p><blockquote>正如所见，它在过去十年中能够保持天文数字的ROCE水平：平均约103%。为了正确看待事情，下图将V的ROCE与FAAMG股票进行了比较，FAAMG股票是一组将网络效应发挥到极致的企业。可以看出，V在其中获得了极具竞争力的ROCE——仅次于苹果(AAPL)。平均而言，每1美元的收益再投资将推动超过1美元的未来收益增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/877e3bb73de3e6c4fbab1a0133f74464\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"380\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f25b4c6dc0c7ee738ac345c3888ae11\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Introduction to marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”)</p><p><blockquote>边际资本回报率（“边际资本回报率”）简介</blockquote></p><p> In addition to ROCE, an equally important concept is the marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the most two important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the most fundamental two aspects of the same central issue of profitability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is SO FAR. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.</p><p><blockquote>除了ROCE之外，一个同样重要的概念是边际资本回报率（“MROCE”）。对我来说，ROCE和MROCE是分析企业最重要的两个指标。它们揭示了盈利能力这个核心问题的最基本的两个方面。ROCE告诉我们该业务迄今为止的盈利能力。MROCE深入了解了盈利能力可能走向的方向。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A bit of background and introduction for readers who are new to the concept. For readers familiar with the concept already, definitely skip this section. From what I’ve learned, the legendary economist John Maynard Keynes first explicitly expressed this concept, although people before him have observed and thought about it for some time already. What the concept tries to capture is a basic law in economic activities: the law of diminishing returns. Warren Buffett likes to say that interest rate acts like gravity on all economic activities. Well, diminishing returns act like gravity on all economic activities too, if not more so, as long as human nature does not change in any fundamental way.</p><p><blockquote>为不熟悉这个概念的读者提供一点背景和介绍。对于已经熟悉这个概念的读者来说，一定要跳过这一部分。据我所知，传奇经济学家约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯首先明确表达了这个概念，尽管在他之前的人已经观察和思考了一段时间。这个概念试图捕捉的是经济活动中的一个基本规律：收益递减规律。沃伦·巴菲特喜欢说，利率就像重力一样影响所有经济活动。嗯，只要人性不发生任何根本性的变化，收益递减对所有经济活动也有引力作用，如果不是更大的话。</blockquote></p><p> The next chart illustrates the concept. As long as shareholders are seeking profit, a public business will first invest its money at projects with the highest possible rate of return (i.e., picking the lowest hanging apples first or getting the most bang for the buck first). Therefore, the first batch of available resources is invested at a high rate of return – the highest the business can possibly identify. The second batch of money will have to be invested at a somewhat lower rate of return since the best ideas have been taken by the first batch of resources already, and so on. The last batch of money invested may earn a rate of return that is only above the cost of capital. And finally, the end result is a declining MROCE curve as shown.</p><p><blockquote>下一个图表说明了这个概念。只要股东寻求利润，上市企业就会首先将资金投资于回报率最高的项目（即，先摘最低的苹果或先获得最大的回报）。因此，第一批可用资源的投资回报率很高——企业可能确定的最高回报率。第二批资金将不得不以较低的回报率进行投资，因为最好的想法已经被第一批资源采纳了，等等。最后一批投入的钱可能会获得仅高于资金成本的回报率。最后，最终结果是如图所示下降的MROCE曲线。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1cd59ec1a6da411c303c2bbccaf2425\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"460\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The ROCE we normally talk about and companies report refers to the average of this curve – averaging the return on all batches of money invested. Obviously, the average is very useful information by itself. It tells us how efficiently the business has been converting resources into profit so far – but its limitation is that it only tells us the efficiency of the resources that have already been invested SO FAR. What is of equal importance to investors is the MROCE, which tells us how much incremental profit the business WILL generate when the next batch of resources are invested.</p><p><blockquote>我们通常谈论和公司报告的ROCE指的是这条曲线的平均值——平均所有批次投资的回报。显然，平均值本身就是非常有用的信息。它告诉我们企业到目前为止将资源转化为利润的效率——但它的局限性在于，它只告诉我们到目前为止已经投入的资源的效率。对投资者同样重要的是MROCE，它告诉我们下一批资源投入时，业务会产生多少增量利润。</blockquote></p><p> For investors, a dream business to invest in would be a business that enjoys a flat MROCE curve as shown by the solid blue line. This would be a business that is perfectly scalable. A business that earns a consistent and stable profit for every batch of resources invested. However, such a business is really only a dream business. I mentioned earlier that diminishing returns act like gravity on all economic activities - because they really do. There has been no business (at least not so far in human history) that can keep growing while at the same time maintaining a constant return on capital. At some point, gravity always catches up and the return begins to decline (as shown by the dashed blue line).</p><p><blockquote>对于投资者来说，梦想投资的企业是拥有平坦MROCE曲线的企业，如蓝色实线所示。这将是一个完全可扩展的业务。每投入一批资源都能获得持续稳定利润的企业。然而，这样的生意真的只是梦中生意。我之前提到过，收益递减对所有经济活动都有引力作用——因为它们确实如此。从来没有一个企业（至少在人类历史上没有）能够在保持资本回报率的同时保持增长。在某些时候，重力总是赶上来，回报开始下降（如蓝色虚线所示）。</blockquote></p><p> V’s MROCE</p><p><blockquote>V的MROCE</blockquote></p><p> So for investors, the next best deal is to invest in a business that A) has a high and stable ROCE, and B) that is still in the scalable stage (the gravity of diminishing return has not caught up yet). And as shown in the next chart, V seems to be such a business at such a stage.</p><p><blockquote>因此，对于投资者来说，下一个最好的交易是投资a）具有高且稳定的ROCE，B）仍处于可扩展阶段（回报递减的严重性尚未赶上）的企业。而如下图所示，V在这样一个阶段似乎就是这样一个业务。</blockquote></p><p> This chart shows the MROCE and ROCE for V over recent years. The ROCE data are the same as those shown in the previous section. The MROCE data are estimated by the following steps. First, the capital employed was calculated for each year. Second, the earnings were calculated each year. Third, then the incremental of capital employed year over year was calculated. Similarly, the incremental earnings year over year were also calculated. And finally, the ratio between the incremental earnings and incremental capital employed was calculated to approximate the MROCE. During years when there were large fluctuations in either the incremental earnings or the capital employed, a multi-year running average was taken to smooth the fluctuations.</p><p><blockquote>这张图表显示了近年来V的MROCE和ROCE。ROCE数据与上一节所示相同。通过以下步骤估计MROCE数据。首先，计算每年使用的资本。其次，每年计算收益。第三，计算每年使用的资本增量。同样，还计算了同比增量收益。最后，计算增量收益和增量资本使用之间的比率以近似MROCE。在增量盈利或资本使用波动较大的年度，采用多年运行平均法来平滑波动。</blockquote></p><p> Before we began to interpret the results, let me first clarify the difficulties of analyzing marginal return on capital and the limitations of the approach I used here. Firstly, it is just mathematically much harder to estimate the rate of change (e.g., which is what MROCE is essentially is) than the average change (which is what ROCE is essentially is). Estimating the latter involves dividing two large numbers and the uncertainties are small. Estimating the former requires dividing two small numbers and the uncertainties in the financial data can be magnified. Secondly, some capital investments in a business can take multiple years (more than 3 years) to bear fruit (or to fail). Therefore, isolating and tracking the marginal return produced by investments made in a given year is inherently difficult. Although most of the projects should begin to show results (either good or bad) in 3 years and this approach should be able to capture the dominating trend of marginal return.</p><p><blockquote>在我们开始解释结果之前，让我首先澄清分析边际资本回报率的困难以及我在这里使用的方法的局限性。首先，从数学上讲，估计变化率（例如，MROCE本质上是什么）比平均变化（ROCE本质上是什么）要困难得多。估计后者需要除以两个大数，不确定性很小。估计前者需要除以两个小数字，财务数据中的不确定性可以被放大。其次，对企业的一些资本投资可能需要多年（超过3年）才能取得成果（或失败）。因此，隔离和跟踪某一年投资产生的边际回报本质上是困难的。尽管大多数项目应该在3年内开始显示结果（无论是好的还是坏的），并且这种方法应该能够捕捉边际回报的主导趋势。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> With the above understanding, let’s look at the results closely. First, note that the extraordinarily high MROCE during the early part of the decade again provides a strong illustration of the network effects and the secular trend that support the business at a fundamental level. The business model is just too good.</p><p><blockquote>有了以上的了解，我们来仔细看看结果。首先，请注意，本世纪初极高的MROCE再次有力地说明了从根本上支持业务的网络效应和长期趋势。商业模式太好了。</blockquote></p><p> The results in the chart also show that at this stage, V has been actually able to maintain an MROCE that actually is higher than the average ROCE in recent years. As seen, the ROCE has been on average 103% in recent years, and the MROCE has been on average 157%. It was significantly lower than the 350+% level in the earlier part of the decade – gravity always tries to catch up. But it is still higher than the ROCE by a good margin. And the gap is more than 50%, too large to be caused by the uncertainties in the financial data and rounding off errors. So this result suggests that V has not entered a stage of diminishing return yet - gravity has not caught up yet. And if the current MROCE continues, V’s ROCE will maintain its current high level or even further expand.</p><p><blockquote>图表中的结果还显示，在这个阶段，V实际上能够保持实际上高于近年来平均ROCE的MROCE。可以看出，近年来ROCE平均为103%，MROCE平均为157%。这明显低于本世纪初350%以上的水平——重力总是试图迎头赶上。但仍远高于ROCE。而且差距超过50%，太大了，不可能是财务数据的不确定性和舍入误差造成的。所以这个结果表明V还没有进入收益递减阶段——重力还没有赶上。而如果目前的MROCE继续下去，V的ROCE将维持目前的高水平，甚至进一步扩大。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cea9c214b6d0dd15d8f9c5c1392272e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha data.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha数据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> After the above discussion of its profitability sustainability, let’s look at the valuation. At its current price levels, V’s PE is about 44x and FW PE is about 39.6x. The valuation is both high in absolute terms and also high in relative terms. For example, when compared to the FAAMG pack, V’s current valuation is only lower than Amazon (AMZN) in terms of the PE multiple and higher than all the others.</p><p><blockquote>以上讨论完其盈利持续性，我们再来看看估值。在目前的价格水平上，V的PE约为44倍，FW PE约为39.6倍。估值无论是绝对值还是相对值都很高。例如，与FAAMG pack相比，V目前的估值仅低于亚马逊(AMZN)的市盈率，高于所有其他公司。</blockquote></p><p> It is not that meaningful to discuss valuation in isolation and without adjusting for the quality of the business. The next chart therefore also compares V valuation adjusted for its ROCE with its peers. If you are familiar with Buffett’s holdings, you would recognize that the stocks in this chart represent some of the large BRK holdings.</p><p><blockquote>如果不根据业务质量进行调整，孤立地讨论估值是没有意义的。因此，下一张图表还将根据ROCE调整后的V估值与同行进行了比较。如果您熟悉巴菲特的持股，您就会认识到这张图表中的股票代表了BRK的一些大型持股。</blockquote></p><p> I am not sure what the picture will look like as we add more data points on this chart (I do plan to organize my notes on other BRK major holdings and add more data points onto this plot). But with the few data points I have now, I cannot help drawing/seeing the green line - what I call a Buffett value line. It is a line linking AbbVie Inc (ABBV) and AAPL - a good business at a good price and a high-quality business at a high price. So from a value investor point of view, it only makes sense to make investments along this line or below it. Because investment along this line or below represents a trade-off between quality and price that is equivalent or better than ABBV or AAPL. It makes no sense to invest above this line, as anything above this line represents an inferior trade-off between quality and price - we'd be better off just investing in ABBV and AAPL.</p><p><blockquote>我不确定当我们在这张图表上添加更多数据点时，情况会是什么样子（我确实计划组织我对其他BRK主要持股的笔记，并在这张图表上添加更多数据点）。但凭借我现在掌握的几个数据点，我忍不住画出/看到了绿线——我看涨期权的巴菲特价值线。它是连接艾伯维公司（ABBV）和苹果公司的一条线——物美价廉的好企业和高价的高质量企业。因此，从价值投资者的角度来看，只有沿着这条线或低于这条线进行投资才有意义。因为沿着这条线或以下的投资代表了质量和价格之间的权衡，相当于或优于ABBV或AAPL。投资高于这条线是没有意义的，因为高于这条线的任何东西都代表着质量和价格之间的劣质权衡——我们最好只投资ABBV和AAPL。</blockquote></p><p> As you can see, V is currently way above the green line, showing a valuation that is only expensive by itself, but also when adjusted for its ROCE – even if it is superb ROCE.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，V目前远高于绿线，表明其估值不仅本身昂贵，而且在根据其ROCE进行调整后也很昂贵——即使它的ROCE非常出色。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e9fbfdb9a53f0dac2386fcfaf067800\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha data.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha数据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Catalysts and risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>催化剂和风险</b></blockquote></p><p> The long-term catalyst is the trend of digital transactions as mentioned at the beginning of the article. In my view, this trend is unstoppable. The expansive deployment of e-commerce platforms will further accelerate this transition.</p><p><blockquote>长期催化剂是文章开头提到的数字化交易趋势。在我看来，这个趋势是不可阻挡的。电子商务平台的广泛部署将进一步加速这一转变。</blockquote></p><p> The most significant catalyst and also a risk at the same time in the near term is the direction and the pace of the economic recovery. If economic activities and especially travel activities resume to their normal level, V will benefit significantly, as commented by the CFO:</p><p><blockquote>短期内最重要的催化剂，同时也是风险，是经济复苏的方向和步伐。正如首席财务官所评论的，如果经济活动，尤其是旅游活动恢复到正常水平，V将受益匪浅：</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   \"We have seen immediate impacts since popular travel destinations opened their borders. Greece opened borders in April, and inbound card-present spend rose nearly 30 points by the end of June relative to 2019 levels. France opened on June 9, and inbound card-present volumes rose nearly 20 points by the end of June relative to 2019 ... Since April, card-present cross-border spend in Mexico from the U.S. rose nearly 50 points to over 170% of 2019 levels.\"    <i>Vasant Prabhu, Visa CFO (Q3 FY21 earnings call)</i>  In terms of risks, I see a valuation risk here as aforementioned. In terms of business fundamentals, I really do not see any risks in the near- or even long-term. The economic recovery from the pandemic mentioned above is not really a fundamental risk in my view. Even if it develops in the wrong direction and/or at a pace slower than expected, it is at most a temporary hiccup for V. The business model is too robust and too scalable. In the really long term, we can only speculate. The disruption from Fintechs and Crypto currency must be a potential risk in the long term. I suggest readers interested in these discussions to read the analysis published by&nbsp;Natalie Koo.</p><p><blockquote>“自从热门旅游目的地开放边境以来，我们已经看到了直接的影响。希腊在4月份开放了边境，到6月底，入境持卡消费相对于2019年的水平增长了近30个百分点。法国于6月9日开放，截至6月底，入境持卡量相对于2019年增长了近20个百分点...自4月份以来，从美国到墨西哥的持卡跨境消费增长了近50个百分点，达到2019年水平的170%以上。”<i>Vasant Prabhu，Visa首席财务官（2021财年第三季度看涨期权收益）</i>就风险而言，我看到了前面提到的估值风险。就业务基本面而言，我确实认为短期甚至长期没有任何风险。在我看来，上述疫情的经济复苏并不是真正的根本性风险。即使它朝着错误的方向发展和/或以比预期更慢的速度发展，对V来说也最多是暂时的打嗝。商业模式太健壮，可扩展性太强。从真正的长期来看，我们只能猜测。从长远来看，金融科技和加密货币的破坏肯定是一个潜在的风险。我建议对这些讨论感兴趣的读者阅读Natalie Koo发表的分析。</blockquote></p><p> Conclusion and final thought</p><p><blockquote>结论和最后的思考</blockquote></p><p> This article analyzes Visa Inc (V), with a focus on its profit sustainability and scalability. This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit Sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the most two important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the two most fundamental aspects of the same central issue of profit Sustainability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is SO FAR. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.</p><p><blockquote>本文分析Visa Inc(V)，重点关注其利润可持续性和可扩展性。该分析考察了利润可持续性最重要的两个方面：已用资本回报率(“ROCE”)和已用资本边际回报率(“MROCE”)。对我来说，ROCE和MROCE是分析企业最重要的两个指标。它们揭示了利润可持续性这一核心问题的两个最基本的方面。ROCE告诉我们该业务迄今为止的盈利能力。MROCE深入了解了盈利能力可能走向的方向。</blockquote></p><p> The results show that:</p><p><blockquote>结果表明：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>V not only earns a consistently high ROCE in the past but is still perfectly scalable at its current stage, indicating sustainable profit ahead.</li>  <li>The ROCE has been on average about 103% and compares very favorably against overachievers which are exemplary scalable stocks.</li>  <li>And the MROCE has been on average 157% in recent years. So this result suggests that V has not reached the stage of diminishing return yet - gravity has not caught up yet. It is truly impressive for a business at such a staggering scale (which processes $15 trillion of transaction volume last year) to still maintain perfect scalability.</li>  <li>Lastly, this article also discusses its valuation, especially valuation adjusted for ROCE compared to other stocks that enjoy superb scalability using what I call the Buffett value line. V is currently way above the value line, showing its valuation to be only expensive by itself, but also when adjusted for its ROCE – even if it is superb ROCE.</li> </ul> As such, my final verdict is that it is still a perfectly scalable business, but it is more than perfectly priced. Investment at this point will take some time, patience, and commitment for the growth to catch up with the valuation. It is only for long-term committed investors (with at least 5+ years of time horizon) who could hold to it and sit out any potential near-term valuation volatilities.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>V不仅在过去获得了持续较高的ROCE，而且在当前阶段仍然具有完美的可扩展性，表明未来将实现可持续利润。</li><li>ROCE平均约为103%，与表现优异的股票（典型的可扩展股票）相比非常有利。</li><li>近年来MROCE平均为157%。所以这个结果表明V还没有达到收益递减的阶段——重力还没有赶上。对于规模如此惊人（去年处理了15万亿美元的交易量）的企业来说，仍然保持完美的可扩展性确实令人印象深刻。</li><li>最后，本文还讨论了其估值，特别是与使用我看涨期权的巴菲特价值线享有卓越可扩展性的其他股票相比，根据ROCE调整的估值。V目前远高于价值线，这表明其估值不仅本身昂贵，而且在根据ROCE进行调整后也很昂贵——即使它的ROCE非常出色。</li></ul>因此，我的最终结论是，它仍然是一个完全可扩展的业务，但它的定价不仅仅是完美的。此时的投资需要一些时间、耐心和承诺，让增长赶上估值。它只适合长期承诺的投资者（至少有5年以上的时间范围），他们可以坚持下去，不受任何潜在的近期估值波动的影响。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459179-visa-stock-scalability-and-buffett-value-line\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"V":"Visa"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459179-visa-stock-scalability-and-buffett-value-line","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174273121","content_text":"Summary\n\nThis article analyzes Visa from the perspective of its profit sustainability and scalability.\nThis analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and the marginal efficiency of capital.\nThe results show that V not only earns a consistently high ROCE in the past but is still perfectly scalable at its current stage, indicating sustainable profit ahead.\nLastly, this article also discusses its valuation, especially valuation adjusted for ROCE compared to other stocks that enjoy superb scalability using what I call the Buffett value line.\n\nJustin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nInvestment thesis\nThis article analyzes Visa Inc (V), with a focus on its profit sustainability and scalability. This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit Sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the most two important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the two most fundamental aspects of the same central issue of profit Sustainability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is SO FAR. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.\nThe results show that V not only earns a consistently high ROCE in the past but is still perfectly scalable at its current stage, indicating sustainable profit ahead. It is truly impressive for a business at such a staggering scale to maintain perfect scalability. Lastly, this article also discusses its valuation, especially valuation adjusted for ROCE and valuation compared to the other stocks that are exemplary scalable stocks (such as the FAAMG stocks and Buffett style stocks).\nThe moat and the network effects\nV’s moat is in its scale and scalability, best demonstrated in the following two charts. The first chart shows the number of credit, debit, and prepaid cards in circulation worldwide from 2017 to 2019, with forecasts for 2023 and 2025. In 2019, there were 22.8 billion credit, debit, and prepaid cards in circulation worldwide. This figure is set to reach 29.31 billion by 2023, a 28% increase from the 2019 level. This figure will further increase to surpass 30 billion by 2025, a 34% increase from the 2019 level. In other words, the total cards in circulation will increase by more than 1/3 by 2025. The trend of digital transactions is unstoppable.\nThe second chart shows that V, as the leading player in this space, will benefit the most from this secular trend. V is the world’s largest retail electronic payments network providing processing services and payment product platforms. This includes credit, debit, prepaid, and commercial payments, which are offered under the Visa, Visa Electron, Interlink, and PLUS brands. Visa/PLUS is one of the largest global ATM networks. V facilitates digital payments across more than 200 countries and territories. It has 3.6 billion cards in circulation, about 16% of the total number of cards in circulation globally. It processes a mindboggling amount of transactions – 206 billion payment transactions and a total transaction volume of $12.5 trillion in 2020 – an undisputed dominance of the payment network.\nSource: Statista\nSource: Visa USA.\nFurthermore, it is unlikely that such dominance would change in the future (barring any major regulation or antitrust legislation change) due to the so-called \"network effects\". The network effects refer to the fact that the value of certain products or services increases as more people use them. In other words, certain networks become increasingly more valuable as they become bigger. Not every network enjoys this magic feature, and as a matter of fact, most networks suffer a diminishing marginal rate of return – i.e., the additional return decreases as the network becomes bigger – as to be elaborated later. A chain restaurant network is an example. As the network becomes larger, the nodes begin to compete against each other for customers and the return diminishes.\nBut certain networks, like the services V provides, enjoy this magic trait – the network becomes more profitable as it becomes bigger. There is nothing new about the concept. It was true of railways, telephones, and fax machines. All these examples share these common traits: A) the larger the network becomes, the more valuable it becomes (one segment of a railway linking city A and B is far more valuable when this segment also links to other railways linking other cities); and B) the larger the network becomes, the higher the switching cost (if everyone uses a fax machine and you do not want to use one, good luck to you).\nAgain, there is nothing new about the concept. But the internet age dramatically amplified the potency of the network effects. Once a lead is established – for whatever the reason – the network effects would just kick in, take over, and compound itself.\nIt is a self-sustaining positive feedback loop: more users in this network will lead to more convenience, better efficiency, lower cost, which will make the network even better and more valuable for its users and clients, which will, in turn, attract more new users and clients to join and make it harder for existing users to leave, which again will lead back to more users and an even larger network. And such feedback will be reflected in a very high level of return on capital employed (“ROCE”) as to be seen later.\nUnfortunately, like all good things eventually run to an end, so do the benefits of the above network effects. At some point, gravity always catches up, and return begins to diminish. In the railway example, if enough railways have already been built to link all cities with high population density, building the next segment would suffer a diminished return now. In the fax machine example, if every office already has one, adding a second one to each office would also suffer a diminished return.\nTherefore, as investors, we do not only need to examine the ROCE, but also equally importantly, to examine the marginal return. Because the marginal return tells us if the business is still in a scalable stage, or if the business has already passed the tipping point of scalability and begins to see a diminishing return. In another word, MROCE let us see if the gravity of diminishing return has caught up yet or not.\nAnd the remainder of this article will examine both aspects next.\nReturn on capital employed (“ROCE”)\nROCE stands for the return on capital employed. Note that ROCE is different from the return on equity (and more fundamental and important in my view). ROCE considers the return of capital ACTUALLY employed, and therefore provides insight into how effectively the business uses its capital to earn a profit. Readers interested in the details of the ROCE analysis can find them in my earlier article. Here I will just summarize the results in the chart below. In these results, I considered the following items capital actually employed A) Working capital (including payables, receivables, inventory), B) Gross Property, Plant, and Equipment, C) Research and development expenses are capitalized, and D) the intangible book value, mainly consisting of intellectual property and patents for such a business.\nAs seen, it was able to maintain an astronomical level of ROCE over the past decade: on average ~103%. To put things in perspective, the next chart compares V’s ROCE against the FAAMG stocks – a group of businesses that exploits the network effects to the extreme. As can be seen, V earns a very competitive ROCE among them – only second to Apple (AAPL). Every $1 of earning reinvested will fuel more than $1 of additional future earnings growth on average.\nSource: author and Seeking Alpha.\nSource: author and Seeking Alpha.\nIntroduction to marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”)\nIn addition to ROCE, an equally important concept is the marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the most two important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the most fundamental two aspects of the same central issue of profitability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is SO FAR. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.\nA bit of background and introduction for readers who are new to the concept. For readers familiar with the concept already, definitely skip this section. From what I’ve learned, the legendary economist John Maynard Keynes first explicitly expressed this concept, although people before him have observed and thought about it for some time already. What the concept tries to capture is a basic law in economic activities: the law of diminishing returns. Warren Buffett likes to say that interest rate acts like gravity on all economic activities. Well, diminishing returns act like gravity on all economic activities too, if not more so, as long as human nature does not change in any fundamental way.\nThe next chart illustrates the concept. As long as shareholders are seeking profit, a public business will first invest its money at projects with the highest possible rate of return (i.e., picking the lowest hanging apples first or getting the most bang for the buck first). Therefore, the first batch of available resources is invested at a high rate of return – the highest the business can possibly identify. The second batch of money will have to be invested at a somewhat lower rate of return since the best ideas have been taken by the first batch of resources already, and so on. The last batch of money invested may earn a rate of return that is only above the cost of capital. And finally, the end result is a declining MROCE curve as shown.\nSource: author\nThe ROCE we normally talk about and companies report refers to the average of this curve – averaging the return on all batches of money invested. Obviously, the average is very useful information by itself. It tells us how efficiently the business has been converting resources into profit so far – but its limitation is that it only tells us the efficiency of the resources that have already been invested SO FAR. What is of equal importance to investors is the MROCE, which tells us how much incremental profit the business WILL generate when the next batch of resources are invested.\nFor investors, a dream business to invest in would be a business that enjoys a flat MROCE curve as shown by the solid blue line. This would be a business that is perfectly scalable. A business that earns a consistent and stable profit for every batch of resources invested. However, such a business is really only a dream business. I mentioned earlier that diminishing returns act like gravity on all economic activities - because they really do. There has been no business (at least not so far in human history) that can keep growing while at the same time maintaining a constant return on capital. At some point, gravity always catches up and the return begins to decline (as shown by the dashed blue line).\nV’s MROCE\nSo for investors, the next best deal is to invest in a business that A) has a high and stable ROCE, and B) that is still in the scalable stage (the gravity of diminishing return has not caught up yet). And as shown in the next chart, V seems to be such a business at such a stage.\nThis chart shows the MROCE and ROCE for V over recent years. The ROCE data are the same as those shown in the previous section. The MROCE data are estimated by the following steps. First, the capital employed was calculated for each year. Second, the earnings were calculated each year. Third, then the incremental of capital employed year over year was calculated. Similarly, the incremental earnings year over year were also calculated. And finally, the ratio between the incremental earnings and incremental capital employed was calculated to approximate the MROCE. During years when there were large fluctuations in either the incremental earnings or the capital employed, a multi-year running average was taken to smooth the fluctuations.\nBefore we began to interpret the results, let me first clarify the difficulties of analyzing marginal return on capital and the limitations of the approach I used here. Firstly, it is just mathematically much harder to estimate the rate of change (e.g., which is what MROCE is essentially is) than the average change (which is what ROCE is essentially is). Estimating the latter involves dividing two large numbers and the uncertainties are small. Estimating the former requires dividing two small numbers and the uncertainties in the financial data can be magnified. Secondly, some capital investments in a business can take multiple years (more than 3 years) to bear fruit (or to fail). Therefore, isolating and tracking the marginal return produced by investments made in a given year is inherently difficult. Although most of the projects should begin to show results (either good or bad) in 3 years and this approach should be able to capture the dominating trend of marginal return.\nWith the above understanding, let’s look at the results closely. First, note that the extraordinarily high MROCE during the early part of the decade again provides a strong illustration of the network effects and the secular trend that support the business at a fundamental level. The business model is just too good.\nThe results in the chart also show that at this stage, V has been actually able to maintain an MROCE that actually is higher than the average ROCE in recent years. As seen, the ROCE has been on average 103% in recent years, and the MROCE has been on average 157%. It was significantly lower than the 350+% level in the earlier part of the decade – gravity always tries to catch up. But it is still higher than the ROCE by a good margin. And the gap is more than 50%, too large to be caused by the uncertainties in the financial data and rounding off errors. So this result suggests that V has not entered a stage of diminishing return yet - gravity has not caught up yet. And if the current MROCE continues, V’s ROCE will maintain its current high level or even further expand.\nSource: author and Seeking Alpha data.\nValuation\nAfter the above discussion of its profitability sustainability, let’s look at the valuation. At its current price levels, V’s PE is about 44x and FW PE is about 39.6x. The valuation is both high in absolute terms and also high in relative terms. For example, when compared to the FAAMG pack, V’s current valuation is only lower than Amazon (AMZN) in terms of the PE multiple and higher than all the others.\nIt is not that meaningful to discuss valuation in isolation and without adjusting for the quality of the business. The next chart therefore also compares V valuation adjusted for its ROCE with its peers. If you are familiar with Buffett’s holdings, you would recognize that the stocks in this chart represent some of the large BRK holdings.\nI am not sure what the picture will look like as we add more data points on this chart (I do plan to organize my notes on other BRK major holdings and add more data points onto this plot). But with the few data points I have now, I cannot help drawing/seeing the green line - what I call a Buffett value line. It is a line linking AbbVie Inc (ABBV) and AAPL - a good business at a good price and a high-quality business at a high price. So from a value investor point of view, it only makes sense to make investments along this line or below it. Because investment along this line or below represents a trade-off between quality and price that is equivalent or better than ABBV or AAPL. It makes no sense to invest above this line, as anything above this line represents an inferior trade-off between quality and price - we'd be better off just investing in ABBV and AAPL.\nAs you can see, V is currently way above the green line, showing a valuation that is only expensive by itself, but also when adjusted for its ROCE – even if it is superb ROCE.\nSource: author and Seeking Alpha data.\nCatalysts and risks\nThe long-term catalyst is the trend of digital transactions as mentioned at the beginning of the article. In my view, this trend is unstoppable. The expansive deployment of e-commerce platforms will further accelerate this transition.\nThe most significant catalyst and also a risk at the same time in the near term is the direction and the pace of the economic recovery. If economic activities and especially travel activities resume to their normal level, V will benefit significantly, as commented by the CFO:\n\n \"We have seen immediate impacts since popular travel destinations opened their borders. Greece opened borders in April, and inbound card-present spend rose nearly 30 points by the end of June relative to 2019 levels. France opened on June 9, and inbound card-present volumes rose nearly 20 points by the end of June relative to 2019 ... Since April, card-present cross-border spend in Mexico from the U.S. rose nearly 50 points to over 170% of 2019 levels.\"\n\n\nVasant Prabhu, Visa CFO (Q3 FY21 earnings call)\n\nIn terms of risks, I see a valuation risk here as aforementioned. In terms of business fundamentals, I really do not see any risks in the near- or even long-term. The economic recovery from the pandemic mentioned above is not really a fundamental risk in my view. Even if it develops in the wrong direction and/or at a pace slower than expected, it is at most a temporary hiccup for V. The business model is too robust and too scalable. In the really long term, we can only speculate. The disruption from Fintechs and Crypto currency must be a potential risk in the long term. I suggest readers interested in these discussions to read the analysis published by Natalie Koo.\nConclusion and final thought\nThis article analyzes Visa Inc (V), with a focus on its profit sustainability and scalability. This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit Sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the most two important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the two most fundamental aspects of the same central issue of profit Sustainability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is SO FAR. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.\nThe results show that:\n\nV not only earns a consistently high ROCE in the past but is still perfectly scalable at its current stage, indicating sustainable profit ahead.\nThe ROCE has been on average about 103% and compares very favorably against overachievers which are exemplary scalable stocks.\nAnd the MROCE has been on average 157% in recent years. So this result suggests that V has not reached the stage of diminishing return yet - gravity has not caught up yet. It is truly impressive for a business at such a staggering scale (which processes $15 trillion of transaction volume last year) to still maintain perfect scalability.\nLastly, this article also discusses its valuation, especially valuation adjusted for ROCE compared to other stocks that enjoy superb scalability using what I call the Buffett value line. V is currently way above the value line, showing its valuation to be only expensive by itself, but also when adjusted for its ROCE – even if it is superb ROCE.\n\nAs such, my final verdict is that it is still a perfectly scalable business, but it is more than perfectly priced. Investment at this point will take some time, patience, and commitment for the growth to catch up with the valuation. It is only for long-term committed investors (with at least 5+ years of time horizon) who could hold to it and sit out any potential near-term valuation volatilities.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"V":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1901,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":826950368,"gmtCreate":1633966942738,"gmtModify":1633966942738,"author":{"id":"3555822052484377","authorId":"3555822052484377","name":"Tongs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a38d6dcec089553bed2e9e999c283a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555822052484377","idStr":"3555822052484377"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/826950368","repostId":"1174273121","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174273121","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633965002,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1174273121?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-11 23:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Visa Stock: Scalability And Buffett Value Line<blockquote>Visa股票：可扩展性和巴菲特价值线</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174273121","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThis article analyzes Visa from the perspective of its profit sustainability and scalabilit","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>This article analyzes Visa from the perspective of its profit sustainability and scalability.</li>  <li>This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and the marginal efficiency of capital.</li>  <li>The results show that V not only earns a consistently high ROCE in the past but is still perfectly scalable at its current stage, indicating sustainable profit ahead.</li>  <li>Lastly, this article also discusses its valuation, especially valuation adjusted for ROCE compared to other stocks that enjoy superb scalability using what I call the Buffett value line.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4e9c2f1150ac54e1f764f98c0880f1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1039\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>本文从Visa的盈利可持续性和可扩展性的角度对其进行分析。</li><li>该分析考察了利润可持续性最重要的两个方面：已用资本回报率(“ROCE”)和资本边际效率。</li><li>结果表明，V不仅在过去获得了持续较高的ROCE，而且在当前阶段仍然具有完美的可扩展性，表明未来将实现可持续利润。</li><li>最后，本文还讨论了其估值，特别是与使用我看涨期权的巴菲特价值线享有卓越可扩展性的其他股票相比，根据ROCE调整的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>贾斯汀·沙利文/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> This article analyzes Visa Inc (V), with a focus on its profit sustainability and scalability. This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit Sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the most two important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the two most fundamental aspects of the same central issue of profit Sustainability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is SO FAR. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.</p><p><blockquote>本文分析Visa Inc(V)，重点关注其利润可持续性和可扩展性。该分析考察了利润可持续性最重要的两个方面：已用资本回报率(“ROCE”)和已用资本边际回报率(“MROCE”)。对我来说，ROCE和MROCE是分析企业最重要的两个指标。它们揭示了利润可持续性这一核心问题的两个最基本的方面。ROCE告诉我们该业务迄今为止的盈利能力。MROCE深入了解了盈利能力可能走向的方向。</blockquote></p><p> The results show that V not only earns a consistently high ROCE in the past but is still perfectly scalable at its current stage, indicating sustainable profit ahead. It is truly impressive for a business at such a staggering scale to maintain perfect scalability. Lastly, this article also discusses its valuation, especially valuation adjusted for ROCE and valuation compared to the other stocks that are exemplary scalable stocks (such as the FAAMG stocks and Buffett style stocks).</p><p><blockquote>结果表明，V不仅在过去获得了持续较高的ROCE，而且在当前阶段仍然具有完美的可扩展性，表明未来将实现可持续利润。对于规模如此惊人的企业来说，保持完美的可扩展性确实令人印象深刻。最后，本文还讨论了其估值，特别是根据ROCE调整的估值以及与其他示例性可扩展股票（例如FAAMG股票和巴菲特风格股票）相比的估值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The moat and the network effects</b></p><p><blockquote><b>护城河与网络效应</b></blockquote></p><p> V’s moat is in its scale and scalability, best demonstrated in the following two charts. The first chart shows the number of credit, debit, and prepaid cards in circulation worldwide from 2017 to 2019, with forecasts for 2023 and 2025. In 2019, there were 22.8 billion credit, debit, and prepaid cards in circulation worldwide. This figure is set to reach 29.31 billion by 2023, a 28% increase from the 2019 level. This figure will further increase to surpass 30 billion by 2025, a 34% increase from the 2019 level. In other words, the total cards in circulation will increase by more than 1/3 by 2025. The trend of digital transactions is unstoppable.</p><p><blockquote>V的护城河在于其规模和可扩展性，下面两张图表最好地展示了这一点。第一张图表显示了2017年至2019年全球流通的信用卡、借记卡和预付卡数量，并对2023年和2025年进行了预测。2019年，全球有228亿张信用卡、借记卡和预付卡在流通。到2023年，这一数字将达到293.1亿，比2019年的水平增长28%。到2025年，这一数字将进一步增加，超过300亿，比2019年的水平增长34%。也就是说，到2025年流通卡总量将增长1/3以上。数字化交易的趋势势不可挡。</blockquote></p><p> The second chart shows that V, as the leading player in this space, will benefit the most from this secular trend. V is the world’s largest retail electronic payments network providing processing services and payment product platforms. This includes credit, debit, prepaid, and commercial payments, which are offered under the Visa, Visa Electron, Interlink, and PLUS brands. Visa/PLUS is one of the largest global ATM networks. V facilitates digital payments across more than 200 countries and territories. It has 3.6 billion cards in circulation, about 16% of the total number of cards in circulation globally. It processes a mindboggling amount of transactions – 206 billion payment transactions and a total transaction volume of $12.5 trillion in 2020 – an undisputed dominance of the payment network.</p><p><blockquote>第二张图表显示，V作为该领域的领导者，将从这一长期趋势中受益最多。V是全球最大的零售电子支付网络，提供处理服务和支付产品平台。这包括信用卡、借记卡、预付费和商业支付，这些支付以Visa、Visa Electron、Interlink和PLUS品牌提供。Visa/PLUS是全球最大的ATM网络之一。V为200多个国家和地区的数字支付提供便利。它拥有36亿张流通卡，约占全球流通卡总数的16%。它处理了令人难以置信的交易量——2060亿笔支付交易，2020年总交易额为12.5万亿美元——这是支付网络无可争议的主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e261998de072e355b6f039912d0f1453\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/036bc8c94696fcfd8ed3403b699534c6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"318\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Visa USA.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：美国签证。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, it is unlikely that such dominance would change in the future (barring any major regulation or antitrust legislation change) due to the so-called \"network effects\". The network effects refer to the fact that the value of certain products or services increases as more people use them. In other words, certain networks become increasingly more valuable as they become bigger. Not every network enjoys this magic feature, and as a matter of fact, most networks suffer a diminishing marginal rate of return – i.e., the additional return decreases as the network becomes bigger – as to be elaborated later. A chain restaurant network is an example. As the network becomes larger, the nodes begin to compete against each other for customers and the return diminishes.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于所谓的“网络效应”，这种主导地位在未来不太可能改变（除非任何重大监管或反托拉斯法发生变化）。网络效应是指某些产品或服务的价值随着更多人使用而增加。换句话说，某些网络随着规模的扩大而变得越来越有价值。并不是每个网络都享有这种神奇的特性，事实上，大多数网络的边际回报率是递减的——即，额外回报随着网络变大而减少——这将在后面详细说明。连锁餐厅网络就是一个例子。随着网络变得更大，节点开始相互竞争客户，回报减少。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But certain networks, like the services V provides, enjoy this magic trait – the network becomes more profitable as it becomes bigger. There is nothing new about the concept. It was true of railways, telephones, and fax machines. All these examples share these common traits: A) the larger the network becomes, the more valuable it becomes (one segment of a railway linking city A and B is far more valuable when this segment also links to other railways linking other cities); and B) the larger the network becomes, the higher the switching cost (if everyone uses a fax machine and you do not want to use one, good luck to you).</p><p><blockquote>但某些网络，如V提供的服务，享有这种神奇的特性——网络越大，利润就越高。这个概念没有什么新意。铁路、电话和传真机都是如此。所有这些例子都有这些共同的特征：a）网络变得越大，它就变得越有价值（当连接城市A和B的铁路的一段也连接到连接其他城市的其他铁路时，这段铁路的价值要高得多）；B）网络越大，交换成本就越高（如果每个人都使用传真机，而你不想使用传真机，祝你好运）。</blockquote></p><p> Again, there is nothing new about the concept. But the internet age dramatically amplified the potency of the network effects. Once a lead is established – for whatever the reason – the network effects would just kick in, take over, and compound itself.</p><p><blockquote>同样，这个概念没有什么新意。但是互联网时代极大地放大了网络效应的威力。一旦建立了线索——不管出于什么原因——网络效应就会开始发挥作用，接管并自我复合。</blockquote></p><p> It is a self-sustaining positive feedback loop: more users in this network will lead to more convenience, better efficiency, lower cost, which will make the network even better and more valuable for its users and clients, which will, in turn, attract more new users and clients to join and make it harder for existing users to leave, which again will lead back to more users and an even larger network. And such feedback will be reflected in a very high level of return on capital employed (“ROCE”) as to be seen later.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个自我维持的正反馈循环：这个网络中更多的用户将带来更多的便利、更好的效率、更低的成本，这将使网络对其用户和客户更好、更有价值，这反过来将吸引更多的新用户和客户加入，并使现有用户更难离开，这将再次导致更多的用户和更大的网络。这种反馈将反映在非常高的已用资本回报率（“ROCE”）中，这将在后面看到。</blockquote></p><p> Unfortunately, like all good things eventually run to an end, so do the benefits of the above network effects. At some point, gravity always catches up, and return begins to diminish. In the railway example, if enough railways have already been built to link all cities with high population density, building the next segment would suffer a diminished return now. In the fax machine example, if every office already has one, adding a second one to each office would also suffer a diminished return.</p><p><blockquote>不幸的是，就像所有美好的事情最终都会结束一样，上述网络效应的好处也会结束。在某些时候，重力总是赶上来，回报开始减少。在铁路的例子中，如果已经建造了足够多的铁路来连接所有人口密度高的城市，那么现在建造下一段铁路的回报将会减少。在传真机的例子中，如果每个办公室都已经有一台传真机，那么在每个办公室增加第二台传真机也会减少回报。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, as investors, we do not only need to examine the ROCE, but also equally importantly, to examine the marginal return. Because the marginal return tells us if the business is still in a scalable stage, or if the business has already passed the tipping point of scalability and begins to see a diminishing return. In another word, MROCE let us see if the gravity of diminishing return has caught up yet or not.</p><p><blockquote>因此，作为投资者，我们不仅要考察ROCE，同样重要的是要考察边际收益。因为边际回报告诉我们业务是否仍处于可扩展阶段，或者业务是否已经过了可扩展性的临界点，开始出现收益递减。换句话说，MROCE让我们看看收益递减的严重性是否已经赶上了。</blockquote></p><p> And the remainder of this article will examine both aspects next.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，本文的其余部分将研究这两个方面。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Return on capital employed (“ROCE”)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>已动用资本回报率（“ROCE”）</b></blockquote></p><p> ROCE stands for the return on capital employed. Note that ROCE is different from the return on equity (and more fundamental and important in my view). ROCE considers the return of capital ACTUALLY employed, and therefore provides insight into how effectively the business uses its capital to earn a profit. Readers interested in the details of the ROCE analysis can find them in my&nbsp;earlier article. Here I will just summarize the results in the chart below. In these results, I considered the following items capital actually employed A) Working capital (including payables, receivables, inventory), B) Gross Property, Plant, and Equipment, C) Research and development expenses are capitalized, and D) the intangible book value, mainly consisting of intellectual property and patents for such a business.</p><p><blockquote>ROCE代表已用资本回报率。请注意，ROCE不同于股本回报率（在我看来更基本、更重要）。ROCE考虑实际使用的资本回报，因此可以深入了解企业如何有效地利用其资本赚取利润。对ROCE分析细节感兴趣的读者可以在我之前的文章中找到。在这里，我将在下面的图表中总结结果。在这些结果中，我考虑了实际使用的以下项目资本a)营运资本（包括应付账款、应收账款、存货），B)不动产、厂房和设备总额，C)资本化的研发费用，以及D)无形账面价值，主要包括此类业务的知识产权和专利。</blockquote></p><p> As seen, it was able to maintain an astronomical level of ROCE over the past decade: on average ~103%. To put things in perspective, the next chart compares V’s ROCE against the FAAMG stocks – a group of businesses that exploits the network effects to the extreme. As can be seen, V earns a very competitive ROCE among them – only second to Apple (AAPL). Every $1 of earning reinvested will fuel more than $1 of additional future earnings growth on average.</p><p><blockquote>正如所见，它在过去十年中能够保持天文数字的ROCE水平：平均约103%。为了正确看待事情，下图将V的ROCE与FAAMG股票进行了比较，FAAMG股票是一组将网络效应发挥到极致的企业。可以看出，V在其中获得了极具竞争力的ROCE——仅次于苹果(AAPL)。平均而言，每1美元的收益再投资将推动超过1美元的未来收益增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/877e3bb73de3e6c4fbab1a0133f74464\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"380\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f25b4c6dc0c7ee738ac345c3888ae11\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Introduction to marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”)</p><p><blockquote>边际资本回报率（“边际资本回报率”）简介</blockquote></p><p> In addition to ROCE, an equally important concept is the marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the most two important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the most fundamental two aspects of the same central issue of profitability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is SO FAR. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.</p><p><blockquote>除了ROCE之外，一个同样重要的概念是边际资本回报率（“MROCE”）。对我来说，ROCE和MROCE是分析企业最重要的两个指标。它们揭示了盈利能力这个核心问题的最基本的两个方面。ROCE告诉我们该业务迄今为止的盈利能力。MROCE深入了解了盈利能力可能走向的方向。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A bit of background and introduction for readers who are new to the concept. For readers familiar with the concept already, definitely skip this section. From what I’ve learned, the legendary economist John Maynard Keynes first explicitly expressed this concept, although people before him have observed and thought about it for some time already. What the concept tries to capture is a basic law in economic activities: the law of diminishing returns. Warren Buffett likes to say that interest rate acts like gravity on all economic activities. Well, diminishing returns act like gravity on all economic activities too, if not more so, as long as human nature does not change in any fundamental way.</p><p><blockquote>为不熟悉这个概念的读者提供一点背景和介绍。对于已经熟悉这个概念的读者来说，一定要跳过这一部分。据我所知，传奇经济学家约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯首先明确表达了这个概念，尽管在他之前的人已经观察和思考了一段时间。这个概念试图捕捉的是经济活动中的一个基本规律：收益递减规律。沃伦·巴菲特喜欢说，利率就像重力一样影响所有经济活动。嗯，只要人性不发生任何根本性的变化，收益递减对所有经济活动也有引力作用，如果不是更大的话。</blockquote></p><p> The next chart illustrates the concept. As long as shareholders are seeking profit, a public business will first invest its money at projects with the highest possible rate of return (i.e., picking the lowest hanging apples first or getting the most bang for the buck first). Therefore, the first batch of available resources is invested at a high rate of return – the highest the business can possibly identify. The second batch of money will have to be invested at a somewhat lower rate of return since the best ideas have been taken by the first batch of resources already, and so on. The last batch of money invested may earn a rate of return that is only above the cost of capital. And finally, the end result is a declining MROCE curve as shown.</p><p><blockquote>下一个图表说明了这个概念。只要股东寻求利润，上市企业就会首先将资金投资于回报率最高的项目（即，先摘最低的苹果或先获得最大的回报）。因此，第一批可用资源的投资回报率很高——企业可能确定的最高回报率。第二批资金将不得不以较低的回报率进行投资，因为最好的想法已经被第一批资源采纳了，等等。最后一批投入的钱可能会获得仅高于资金成本的回报率。最后，最终结果是如图所示下降的MROCE曲线。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1cd59ec1a6da411c303c2bbccaf2425\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"460\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The ROCE we normally talk about and companies report refers to the average of this curve – averaging the return on all batches of money invested. Obviously, the average is very useful information by itself. It tells us how efficiently the business has been converting resources into profit so far – but its limitation is that it only tells us the efficiency of the resources that have already been invested SO FAR. What is of equal importance to investors is the MROCE, which tells us how much incremental profit the business WILL generate when the next batch of resources are invested.</p><p><blockquote>我们通常谈论和公司报告的ROCE指的是这条曲线的平均值——平均所有批次投资的回报。显然，平均值本身就是非常有用的信息。它告诉我们企业到目前为止将资源转化为利润的效率——但它的局限性在于，它只告诉我们到目前为止已经投入的资源的效率。对投资者同样重要的是MROCE，它告诉我们下一批资源投入时，业务会产生多少增量利润。</blockquote></p><p> For investors, a dream business to invest in would be a business that enjoys a flat MROCE curve as shown by the solid blue line. This would be a business that is perfectly scalable. A business that earns a consistent and stable profit for every batch of resources invested. However, such a business is really only a dream business. I mentioned earlier that diminishing returns act like gravity on all economic activities - because they really do. There has been no business (at least not so far in human history) that can keep growing while at the same time maintaining a constant return on capital. At some point, gravity always catches up and the return begins to decline (as shown by the dashed blue line).</p><p><blockquote>对于投资者来说，梦想投资的企业是拥有平坦MROCE曲线的企业，如蓝色实线所示。这将是一个完全可扩展的业务。每投入一批资源都能获得持续稳定利润的企业。然而，这样的生意真的只是梦中生意。我之前提到过，收益递减对所有经济活动都有引力作用——因为它们确实如此。从来没有一个企业（至少在人类历史上没有）能够在保持资本回报率的同时保持增长。在某些时候，重力总是赶上来，回报开始下降（如蓝色虚线所示）。</blockquote></p><p> V’s MROCE</p><p><blockquote>V的MROCE</blockquote></p><p> So for investors, the next best deal is to invest in a business that A) has a high and stable ROCE, and B) that is still in the scalable stage (the gravity of diminishing return has not caught up yet). And as shown in the next chart, V seems to be such a business at such a stage.</p><p><blockquote>因此，对于投资者来说，下一个最好的交易是投资a）具有高且稳定的ROCE，B）仍处于可扩展阶段（回报递减的严重性尚未赶上）的企业。而如下图所示，V在这样一个阶段似乎就是这样一个业务。</blockquote></p><p> This chart shows the MROCE and ROCE for V over recent years. The ROCE data are the same as those shown in the previous section. The MROCE data are estimated by the following steps. First, the capital employed was calculated for each year. Second, the earnings were calculated each year. Third, then the incremental of capital employed year over year was calculated. Similarly, the incremental earnings year over year were also calculated. And finally, the ratio between the incremental earnings and incremental capital employed was calculated to approximate the MROCE. During years when there were large fluctuations in either the incremental earnings or the capital employed, a multi-year running average was taken to smooth the fluctuations.</p><p><blockquote>这张图表显示了近年来V的MROCE和ROCE。ROCE数据与上一节所示相同。通过以下步骤估计MROCE数据。首先，计算每年使用的资本。其次，每年计算收益。第三，计算每年使用的资本增量。同样，还计算了同比增量收益。最后，计算增量收益和增量资本使用之间的比率以近似MROCE。在增量盈利或资本使用波动较大的年度，采用多年运行平均法来平滑波动。</blockquote></p><p> Before we began to interpret the results, let me first clarify the difficulties of analyzing marginal return on capital and the limitations of the approach I used here. Firstly, it is just mathematically much harder to estimate the rate of change (e.g., which is what MROCE is essentially is) than the average change (which is what ROCE is essentially is). Estimating the latter involves dividing two large numbers and the uncertainties are small. Estimating the former requires dividing two small numbers and the uncertainties in the financial data can be magnified. Secondly, some capital investments in a business can take multiple years (more than 3 years) to bear fruit (or to fail). Therefore, isolating and tracking the marginal return produced by investments made in a given year is inherently difficult. Although most of the projects should begin to show results (either good or bad) in 3 years and this approach should be able to capture the dominating trend of marginal return.</p><p><blockquote>在我们开始解释结果之前，让我首先澄清分析边际资本回报率的困难以及我在这里使用的方法的局限性。首先，从数学上讲，估计变化率（例如，MROCE本质上是什么）比平均变化（ROCE本质上是什么）要困难得多。估计后者需要除以两个大数，不确定性很小。估计前者需要除以两个小数字，财务数据中的不确定性可以被放大。其次，对企业的一些资本投资可能需要多年（超过3年）才能取得成果（或失败）。因此，隔离和跟踪某一年投资产生的边际回报本质上是困难的。尽管大多数项目应该在3年内开始显示结果（无论是好的还是坏的），并且这种方法应该能够捕捉边际回报的主导趋势。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> With the above understanding, let’s look at the results closely. First, note that the extraordinarily high MROCE during the early part of the decade again provides a strong illustration of the network effects and the secular trend that support the business at a fundamental level. The business model is just too good.</p><p><blockquote>有了以上的了解，我们来仔细看看结果。首先，请注意，本世纪初极高的MROCE再次有力地说明了从根本上支持业务的网络效应和长期趋势。商业模式太好了。</blockquote></p><p> The results in the chart also show that at this stage, V has been actually able to maintain an MROCE that actually is higher than the average ROCE in recent years. As seen, the ROCE has been on average 103% in recent years, and the MROCE has been on average 157%. It was significantly lower than the 350+% level in the earlier part of the decade – gravity always tries to catch up. But it is still higher than the ROCE by a good margin. And the gap is more than 50%, too large to be caused by the uncertainties in the financial data and rounding off errors. So this result suggests that V has not entered a stage of diminishing return yet - gravity has not caught up yet. And if the current MROCE continues, V’s ROCE will maintain its current high level or even further expand.</p><p><blockquote>图表中的结果还显示，在这个阶段，V实际上能够保持实际上高于近年来平均ROCE的MROCE。可以看出，近年来ROCE平均为103%，MROCE平均为157%。这明显低于本世纪初350%以上的水平——重力总是试图迎头赶上。但仍远高于ROCE。而且差距超过50%，太大了，不可能是财务数据的不确定性和舍入误差造成的。所以这个结果表明V还没有进入收益递减阶段——重力还没有赶上。而如果目前的MROCE继续下去，V的ROCE将维持目前的高水平，甚至进一步扩大。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cea9c214b6d0dd15d8f9c5c1392272e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha data.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha数据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> After the above discussion of its profitability sustainability, let’s look at the valuation. At its current price levels, V’s PE is about 44x and FW PE is about 39.6x. The valuation is both high in absolute terms and also high in relative terms. For example, when compared to the FAAMG pack, V’s current valuation is only lower than Amazon (AMZN) in terms of the PE multiple and higher than all the others.</p><p><blockquote>以上讨论完其盈利持续性，我们再来看看估值。在目前的价格水平上，V的PE约为44倍，FW PE约为39.6倍。估值无论是绝对值还是相对值都很高。例如，与FAAMG pack相比，V目前的估值仅低于亚马逊(AMZN)的市盈率，高于所有其他公司。</blockquote></p><p> It is not that meaningful to discuss valuation in isolation and without adjusting for the quality of the business. The next chart therefore also compares V valuation adjusted for its ROCE with its peers. If you are familiar with Buffett’s holdings, you would recognize that the stocks in this chart represent some of the large BRK holdings.</p><p><blockquote>如果不根据业务质量进行调整，孤立地讨论估值是没有意义的。因此，下一张图表还将根据ROCE调整后的V估值与同行进行了比较。如果您熟悉巴菲特的持股，您就会认识到这张图表中的股票代表了BRK的一些大型持股。</blockquote></p><p> I am not sure what the picture will look like as we add more data points on this chart (I do plan to organize my notes on other BRK major holdings and add more data points onto this plot). But with the few data points I have now, I cannot help drawing/seeing the green line - what I call a Buffett value line. It is a line linking AbbVie Inc (ABBV) and AAPL - a good business at a good price and a high-quality business at a high price. So from a value investor point of view, it only makes sense to make investments along this line or below it. Because investment along this line or below represents a trade-off between quality and price that is equivalent or better than ABBV or AAPL. It makes no sense to invest above this line, as anything above this line represents an inferior trade-off between quality and price - we'd be better off just investing in ABBV and AAPL.</p><p><blockquote>我不确定当我们在这张图表上添加更多数据点时，情况会是什么样子（我确实计划组织我对其他BRK主要持股的笔记，并在这张图表上添加更多数据点）。但凭借我现在掌握的几个数据点，我忍不住画出/看到了绿线——我看涨期权的巴菲特价值线。它是连接艾伯维公司（ABBV）和苹果公司的一条线——物美价廉的好企业和高价的高质量企业。因此，从价值投资者的角度来看，只有沿着这条线或低于这条线进行投资才有意义。因为沿着这条线或以下的投资代表了质量和价格之间的权衡，相当于或优于ABBV或AAPL。投资高于这条线是没有意义的，因为高于这条线的任何东西都代表着质量和价格之间的劣质权衡——我们最好只投资ABBV和AAPL。</blockquote></p><p> As you can see, V is currently way above the green line, showing a valuation that is only expensive by itself, but also when adjusted for its ROCE – even if it is superb ROCE.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，V目前远高于绿线，表明其估值不仅本身昂贵，而且在根据其ROCE进行调整后也很昂贵——即使它的ROCE非常出色。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e9fbfdb9a53f0dac2386fcfaf067800\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha data.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha数据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Catalysts and risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>催化剂和风险</b></blockquote></p><p> The long-term catalyst is the trend of digital transactions as mentioned at the beginning of the article. In my view, this trend is unstoppable. The expansive deployment of e-commerce platforms will further accelerate this transition.</p><p><blockquote>长期催化剂是文章开头提到的数字化交易趋势。在我看来，这个趋势是不可阻挡的。电子商务平台的广泛部署将进一步加速这一转变。</blockquote></p><p> The most significant catalyst and also a risk at the same time in the near term is the direction and the pace of the economic recovery. If economic activities and especially travel activities resume to their normal level, V will benefit significantly, as commented by the CFO:</p><p><blockquote>短期内最重要的催化剂，同时也是风险，是经济复苏的方向和步伐。正如首席财务官所评论的，如果经济活动，尤其是旅游活动恢复到正常水平，V将受益匪浅：</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   \"We have seen immediate impacts since popular travel destinations opened their borders. Greece opened borders in April, and inbound card-present spend rose nearly 30 points by the end of June relative to 2019 levels. France opened on June 9, and inbound card-present volumes rose nearly 20 points by the end of June relative to 2019 ... Since April, card-present cross-border spend in Mexico from the U.S. rose nearly 50 points to over 170% of 2019 levels.\"    <i>Vasant Prabhu, Visa CFO (Q3 FY21 earnings call)</i>  In terms of risks, I see a valuation risk here as aforementioned. In terms of business fundamentals, I really do not see any risks in the near- or even long-term. The economic recovery from the pandemic mentioned above is not really a fundamental risk in my view. Even if it develops in the wrong direction and/or at a pace slower than expected, it is at most a temporary hiccup for V. The business model is too robust and too scalable. In the really long term, we can only speculate. The disruption from Fintechs and Crypto currency must be a potential risk in the long term. I suggest readers interested in these discussions to read the analysis published by&nbsp;Natalie Koo.</p><p><blockquote>“自从热门旅游目的地开放边境以来，我们已经看到了直接的影响。希腊在4月份开放了边境，到6月底，入境持卡消费相对于2019年的水平增长了近30个百分点。法国于6月9日开放，截至6月底，入境持卡量相对于2019年增长了近20个百分点...自4月份以来，从美国到墨西哥的持卡跨境消费增长了近50个百分点，达到2019年水平的170%以上。”<i>Vasant Prabhu，Visa首席财务官（2021财年第三季度看涨期权收益）</i>就风险而言，我看到了前面提到的估值风险。就业务基本面而言，我确实认为短期甚至长期没有任何风险。在我看来，上述疫情的经济复苏并不是真正的根本性风险。即使它朝着错误的方向发展和/或以比预期更慢的速度发展，对V来说也最多是暂时的打嗝。商业模式太健壮，可扩展性太强。从真正的长期来看，我们只能猜测。从长远来看，金融科技和加密货币的破坏肯定是一个潜在的风险。我建议对这些讨论感兴趣的读者阅读Natalie Koo发表的分析。</blockquote></p><p> Conclusion and final thought</p><p><blockquote>结论和最后的思考</blockquote></p><p> This article analyzes Visa Inc (V), with a focus on its profit sustainability and scalability. This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit Sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the most two important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the two most fundamental aspects of the same central issue of profit Sustainability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is SO FAR. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.</p><p><blockquote>本文分析Visa Inc(V)，重点关注其利润可持续性和可扩展性。该分析考察了利润可持续性最重要的两个方面：已用资本回报率(“ROCE”)和已用资本边际回报率(“MROCE”)。对我来说，ROCE和MROCE是分析企业最重要的两个指标。它们揭示了利润可持续性这一核心问题的两个最基本的方面。ROCE告诉我们该业务迄今为止的盈利能力。MROCE深入了解了盈利能力可能走向的方向。</blockquote></p><p> The results show that:</p><p><blockquote>结果表明：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>V not only earns a consistently high ROCE in the past but is still perfectly scalable at its current stage, indicating sustainable profit ahead.</li>  <li>The ROCE has been on average about 103% and compares very favorably against overachievers which are exemplary scalable stocks.</li>  <li>And the MROCE has been on average 157% in recent years. So this result suggests that V has not reached the stage of diminishing return yet - gravity has not caught up yet. It is truly impressive for a business at such a staggering scale (which processes $15 trillion of transaction volume last year) to still maintain perfect scalability.</li>  <li>Lastly, this article also discusses its valuation, especially valuation adjusted for ROCE compared to other stocks that enjoy superb scalability using what I call the Buffett value line. V is currently way above the value line, showing its valuation to be only expensive by itself, but also when adjusted for its ROCE – even if it is superb ROCE.</li> </ul> As such, my final verdict is that it is still a perfectly scalable business, but it is more than perfectly priced. Investment at this point will take some time, patience, and commitment for the growth to catch up with the valuation. It is only for long-term committed investors (with at least 5+ years of time horizon) who could hold to it and sit out any potential near-term valuation volatilities.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>V不仅在过去获得了持续较高的ROCE，而且在当前阶段仍然具有完美的可扩展性，表明未来将实现可持续利润。</li><li>ROCE平均约为103%，与表现优异的股票（典型的可扩展股票）相比非常有利。</li><li>近年来MROCE平均为157%。所以这个结果表明V还没有达到收益递减的阶段——重力还没有赶上。对于规模如此惊人（去年处理了15万亿美元的交易量）的企业来说，仍然保持完美的可扩展性确实令人印象深刻。</li><li>最后，本文还讨论了其估值，特别是与使用我看涨期权的巴菲特价值线享有卓越可扩展性的其他股票相比，根据ROCE调整的估值。V目前远高于价值线，这表明其估值不仅本身昂贵，而且在根据ROCE进行调整后也很昂贵——即使它的ROCE非常出色。</li></ul>因此，我的最终结论是，它仍然是一个完全可扩展的业务，但它的定价不仅仅是完美的。此时的投资需要一些时间、耐心和承诺，让增长赶上估值。它只适合长期承诺的投资者（至少有5年以上的时间范围），他们可以坚持下去，不受任何潜在的近期估值波动的影响。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Visa Stock: Scalability And Buffett Value Line<blockquote>Visa股票：可扩展性和巴菲特价值线</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nVisa Stock: Scalability And Buffett Value Line<blockquote>Visa股票：可扩展性和巴菲特价值线</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-11 23:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>This article analyzes Visa from the perspective of its profit sustainability and scalability.</li>  <li>This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and the marginal efficiency of capital.</li>  <li>The results show that V not only earns a consistently high ROCE in the past but is still perfectly scalable at its current stage, indicating sustainable profit ahead.</li>  <li>Lastly, this article also discusses its valuation, especially valuation adjusted for ROCE compared to other stocks that enjoy superb scalability using what I call the Buffett value line.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4e9c2f1150ac54e1f764f98c0880f1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1039\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>本文从Visa的盈利可持续性和可扩展性的角度对其进行分析。</li><li>该分析考察了利润可持续性最重要的两个方面：已用资本回报率(“ROCE”)和资本边际效率。</li><li>结果表明，V不仅在过去获得了持续较高的ROCE，而且在当前阶段仍然具有完美的可扩展性，表明未来将实现可持续利润。</li><li>最后，本文还讨论了其估值，特别是与使用我看涨期权的巴菲特价值线享有卓越可扩展性的其他股票相比，根据ROCE调整的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>贾斯汀·沙利文/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> This article analyzes Visa Inc (V), with a focus on its profit sustainability and scalability. This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit Sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the most two important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the two most fundamental aspects of the same central issue of profit Sustainability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is SO FAR. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.</p><p><blockquote>本文分析Visa Inc(V)，重点关注其利润可持续性和可扩展性。该分析考察了利润可持续性最重要的两个方面：已用资本回报率(“ROCE”)和已用资本边际回报率(“MROCE”)。对我来说，ROCE和MROCE是分析企业最重要的两个指标。它们揭示了利润可持续性这一核心问题的两个最基本的方面。ROCE告诉我们该业务迄今为止的盈利能力。MROCE深入了解了盈利能力可能走向的方向。</blockquote></p><p> The results show that V not only earns a consistently high ROCE in the past but is still perfectly scalable at its current stage, indicating sustainable profit ahead. It is truly impressive for a business at such a staggering scale to maintain perfect scalability. Lastly, this article also discusses its valuation, especially valuation adjusted for ROCE and valuation compared to the other stocks that are exemplary scalable stocks (such as the FAAMG stocks and Buffett style stocks).</p><p><blockquote>结果表明，V不仅在过去获得了持续较高的ROCE，而且在当前阶段仍然具有完美的可扩展性，表明未来将实现可持续利润。对于规模如此惊人的企业来说，保持完美的可扩展性确实令人印象深刻。最后，本文还讨论了其估值，特别是根据ROCE调整的估值以及与其他示例性可扩展股票（例如FAAMG股票和巴菲特风格股票）相比的估值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The moat and the network effects</b></p><p><blockquote><b>护城河与网络效应</b></blockquote></p><p> V’s moat is in its scale and scalability, best demonstrated in the following two charts. The first chart shows the number of credit, debit, and prepaid cards in circulation worldwide from 2017 to 2019, with forecasts for 2023 and 2025. In 2019, there were 22.8 billion credit, debit, and prepaid cards in circulation worldwide. This figure is set to reach 29.31 billion by 2023, a 28% increase from the 2019 level. This figure will further increase to surpass 30 billion by 2025, a 34% increase from the 2019 level. In other words, the total cards in circulation will increase by more than 1/3 by 2025. The trend of digital transactions is unstoppable.</p><p><blockquote>V的护城河在于其规模和可扩展性，下面两张图表最好地展示了这一点。第一张图表显示了2017年至2019年全球流通的信用卡、借记卡和预付卡数量，并对2023年和2025年进行了预测。2019年，全球有228亿张信用卡、借记卡和预付卡在流通。到2023年，这一数字将达到293.1亿，比2019年的水平增长28%。到2025年，这一数字将进一步增加，超过300亿，比2019年的水平增长34%。也就是说，到2025年流通卡总量将增长1/3以上。数字化交易的趋势势不可挡。</blockquote></p><p> The second chart shows that V, as the leading player in this space, will benefit the most from this secular trend. V is the world’s largest retail electronic payments network providing processing services and payment product platforms. This includes credit, debit, prepaid, and commercial payments, which are offered under the Visa, Visa Electron, Interlink, and PLUS brands. Visa/PLUS is one of the largest global ATM networks. V facilitates digital payments across more than 200 countries and territories. It has 3.6 billion cards in circulation, about 16% of the total number of cards in circulation globally. It processes a mindboggling amount of transactions – 206 billion payment transactions and a total transaction volume of $12.5 trillion in 2020 – an undisputed dominance of the payment network.</p><p><blockquote>第二张图表显示，V作为该领域的领导者，将从这一长期趋势中受益最多。V是全球最大的零售电子支付网络，提供处理服务和支付产品平台。这包括信用卡、借记卡、预付费和商业支付，这些支付以Visa、Visa Electron、Interlink和PLUS品牌提供。Visa/PLUS是全球最大的ATM网络之一。V为200多个国家和地区的数字支付提供便利。它拥有36亿张流通卡，约占全球流通卡总数的16%。它处理了令人难以置信的交易量——2060亿笔支付交易，2020年总交易额为12.5万亿美元——这是支付网络无可争议的主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e261998de072e355b6f039912d0f1453\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/036bc8c94696fcfd8ed3403b699534c6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"318\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Visa USA.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：美国签证。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, it is unlikely that such dominance would change in the future (barring any major regulation or antitrust legislation change) due to the so-called \"network effects\". The network effects refer to the fact that the value of certain products or services increases as more people use them. In other words, certain networks become increasingly more valuable as they become bigger. Not every network enjoys this magic feature, and as a matter of fact, most networks suffer a diminishing marginal rate of return – i.e., the additional return decreases as the network becomes bigger – as to be elaborated later. A chain restaurant network is an example. As the network becomes larger, the nodes begin to compete against each other for customers and the return diminishes.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于所谓的“网络效应”，这种主导地位在未来不太可能改变（除非任何重大监管或反托拉斯法发生变化）。网络效应是指某些产品或服务的价值随着更多人使用而增加。换句话说，某些网络随着规模的扩大而变得越来越有价值。并不是每个网络都享有这种神奇的特性，事实上，大多数网络的边际回报率是递减的——即，额外回报随着网络变大而减少——这将在后面详细说明。连锁餐厅网络就是一个例子。随着网络变得更大，节点开始相互竞争客户，回报减少。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But certain networks, like the services V provides, enjoy this magic trait – the network becomes more profitable as it becomes bigger. There is nothing new about the concept. It was true of railways, telephones, and fax machines. All these examples share these common traits: A) the larger the network becomes, the more valuable it becomes (one segment of a railway linking city A and B is far more valuable when this segment also links to other railways linking other cities); and B) the larger the network becomes, the higher the switching cost (if everyone uses a fax machine and you do not want to use one, good luck to you).</p><p><blockquote>但某些网络，如V提供的服务，享有这种神奇的特性——网络越大，利润就越高。这个概念没有什么新意。铁路、电话和传真机都是如此。所有这些例子都有这些共同的特征：a）网络变得越大，它就变得越有价值（当连接城市A和B的铁路的一段也连接到连接其他城市的其他铁路时，这段铁路的价值要高得多）；B）网络越大，交换成本就越高（如果每个人都使用传真机，而你不想使用传真机，祝你好运）。</blockquote></p><p> Again, there is nothing new about the concept. But the internet age dramatically amplified the potency of the network effects. Once a lead is established – for whatever the reason – the network effects would just kick in, take over, and compound itself.</p><p><blockquote>同样，这个概念没有什么新意。但是互联网时代极大地放大了网络效应的威力。一旦建立了线索——不管出于什么原因——网络效应就会开始发挥作用，接管并自我复合。</blockquote></p><p> It is a self-sustaining positive feedback loop: more users in this network will lead to more convenience, better efficiency, lower cost, which will make the network even better and more valuable for its users and clients, which will, in turn, attract more new users and clients to join and make it harder for existing users to leave, which again will lead back to more users and an even larger network. And such feedback will be reflected in a very high level of return on capital employed (“ROCE”) as to be seen later.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个自我维持的正反馈循环：这个网络中更多的用户将带来更多的便利、更好的效率、更低的成本，这将使网络对其用户和客户更好、更有价值，这反过来将吸引更多的新用户和客户加入，并使现有用户更难离开，这将再次导致更多的用户和更大的网络。这种反馈将反映在非常高的已用资本回报率（“ROCE”）中，这将在后面看到。</blockquote></p><p> Unfortunately, like all good things eventually run to an end, so do the benefits of the above network effects. At some point, gravity always catches up, and return begins to diminish. In the railway example, if enough railways have already been built to link all cities with high population density, building the next segment would suffer a diminished return now. In the fax machine example, if every office already has one, adding a second one to each office would also suffer a diminished return.</p><p><blockquote>不幸的是，就像所有美好的事情最终都会结束一样，上述网络效应的好处也会结束。在某些时候，重力总是赶上来，回报开始减少。在铁路的例子中，如果已经建造了足够多的铁路来连接所有人口密度高的城市，那么现在建造下一段铁路的回报将会减少。在传真机的例子中，如果每个办公室都已经有一台传真机，那么在每个办公室增加第二台传真机也会减少回报。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, as investors, we do not only need to examine the ROCE, but also equally importantly, to examine the marginal return. Because the marginal return tells us if the business is still in a scalable stage, or if the business has already passed the tipping point of scalability and begins to see a diminishing return. In another word, MROCE let us see if the gravity of diminishing return has caught up yet or not.</p><p><blockquote>因此，作为投资者，我们不仅要考察ROCE，同样重要的是要考察边际收益。因为边际回报告诉我们业务是否仍处于可扩展阶段，或者业务是否已经过了可扩展性的临界点，开始出现收益递减。换句话说，MROCE让我们看看收益递减的严重性是否已经赶上了。</blockquote></p><p> And the remainder of this article will examine both aspects next.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，本文的其余部分将研究这两个方面。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Return on capital employed (“ROCE”)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>已动用资本回报率（“ROCE”）</b></blockquote></p><p> ROCE stands for the return on capital employed. Note that ROCE is different from the return on equity (and more fundamental and important in my view). ROCE considers the return of capital ACTUALLY employed, and therefore provides insight into how effectively the business uses its capital to earn a profit. Readers interested in the details of the ROCE analysis can find them in my&nbsp;earlier article. Here I will just summarize the results in the chart below. In these results, I considered the following items capital actually employed A) Working capital (including payables, receivables, inventory), B) Gross Property, Plant, and Equipment, C) Research and development expenses are capitalized, and D) the intangible book value, mainly consisting of intellectual property and patents for such a business.</p><p><blockquote>ROCE代表已用资本回报率。请注意，ROCE不同于股本回报率（在我看来更基本、更重要）。ROCE考虑实际使用的资本回报，因此可以深入了解企业如何有效地利用其资本赚取利润。对ROCE分析细节感兴趣的读者可以在我之前的文章中找到。在这里，我将在下面的图表中总结结果。在这些结果中，我考虑了实际使用的以下项目资本a)营运资本（包括应付账款、应收账款、存货），B)不动产、厂房和设备总额，C)资本化的研发费用，以及D)无形账面价值，主要包括此类业务的知识产权和专利。</blockquote></p><p> As seen, it was able to maintain an astronomical level of ROCE over the past decade: on average ~103%. To put things in perspective, the next chart compares V’s ROCE against the FAAMG stocks – a group of businesses that exploits the network effects to the extreme. As can be seen, V earns a very competitive ROCE among them – only second to Apple (AAPL). Every $1 of earning reinvested will fuel more than $1 of additional future earnings growth on average.</p><p><blockquote>正如所见，它在过去十年中能够保持天文数字的ROCE水平：平均约103%。为了正确看待事情，下图将V的ROCE与FAAMG股票进行了比较，FAAMG股票是一组将网络效应发挥到极致的企业。可以看出，V在其中获得了极具竞争力的ROCE——仅次于苹果(AAPL)。平均而言，每1美元的收益再投资将推动超过1美元的未来收益增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/877e3bb73de3e6c4fbab1a0133f74464\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"380\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f25b4c6dc0c7ee738ac345c3888ae11\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Introduction to marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”)</p><p><blockquote>边际资本回报率（“边际资本回报率”）简介</blockquote></p><p> In addition to ROCE, an equally important concept is the marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the most two important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the most fundamental two aspects of the same central issue of profitability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is SO FAR. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.</p><p><blockquote>除了ROCE之外，一个同样重要的概念是边际资本回报率（“MROCE”）。对我来说，ROCE和MROCE是分析企业最重要的两个指标。它们揭示了盈利能力这个核心问题的最基本的两个方面。ROCE告诉我们该业务迄今为止的盈利能力。MROCE深入了解了盈利能力可能走向的方向。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A bit of background and introduction for readers who are new to the concept. For readers familiar with the concept already, definitely skip this section. From what I’ve learned, the legendary economist John Maynard Keynes first explicitly expressed this concept, although people before him have observed and thought about it for some time already. What the concept tries to capture is a basic law in economic activities: the law of diminishing returns. Warren Buffett likes to say that interest rate acts like gravity on all economic activities. Well, diminishing returns act like gravity on all economic activities too, if not more so, as long as human nature does not change in any fundamental way.</p><p><blockquote>为不熟悉这个概念的读者提供一点背景和介绍。对于已经熟悉这个概念的读者来说，一定要跳过这一部分。据我所知，传奇经济学家约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯首先明确表达了这个概念，尽管在他之前的人已经观察和思考了一段时间。这个概念试图捕捉的是经济活动中的一个基本规律：收益递减规律。沃伦·巴菲特喜欢说，利率就像重力一样影响所有经济活动。嗯，只要人性不发生任何根本性的变化，收益递减对所有经济活动也有引力作用，如果不是更大的话。</blockquote></p><p> The next chart illustrates the concept. As long as shareholders are seeking profit, a public business will first invest its money at projects with the highest possible rate of return (i.e., picking the lowest hanging apples first or getting the most bang for the buck first). Therefore, the first batch of available resources is invested at a high rate of return – the highest the business can possibly identify. The second batch of money will have to be invested at a somewhat lower rate of return since the best ideas have been taken by the first batch of resources already, and so on. The last batch of money invested may earn a rate of return that is only above the cost of capital. And finally, the end result is a declining MROCE curve as shown.</p><p><blockquote>下一个图表说明了这个概念。只要股东寻求利润，上市企业就会首先将资金投资于回报率最高的项目（即，先摘最低的苹果或先获得最大的回报）。因此，第一批可用资源的投资回报率很高——企业可能确定的最高回报率。第二批资金将不得不以较低的回报率进行投资，因为最好的想法已经被第一批资源采纳了，等等。最后一批投入的钱可能会获得仅高于资金成本的回报率。最后，最终结果是如图所示下降的MROCE曲线。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1cd59ec1a6da411c303c2bbccaf2425\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"460\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The ROCE we normally talk about and companies report refers to the average of this curve – averaging the return on all batches of money invested. Obviously, the average is very useful information by itself. It tells us how efficiently the business has been converting resources into profit so far – but its limitation is that it only tells us the efficiency of the resources that have already been invested SO FAR. What is of equal importance to investors is the MROCE, which tells us how much incremental profit the business WILL generate when the next batch of resources are invested.</p><p><blockquote>我们通常谈论和公司报告的ROCE指的是这条曲线的平均值——平均所有批次投资的回报。显然，平均值本身就是非常有用的信息。它告诉我们企业到目前为止将资源转化为利润的效率——但它的局限性在于，它只告诉我们到目前为止已经投入的资源的效率。对投资者同样重要的是MROCE，它告诉我们下一批资源投入时，业务会产生多少增量利润。</blockquote></p><p> For investors, a dream business to invest in would be a business that enjoys a flat MROCE curve as shown by the solid blue line. This would be a business that is perfectly scalable. A business that earns a consistent and stable profit for every batch of resources invested. However, such a business is really only a dream business. I mentioned earlier that diminishing returns act like gravity on all economic activities - because they really do. There has been no business (at least not so far in human history) that can keep growing while at the same time maintaining a constant return on capital. At some point, gravity always catches up and the return begins to decline (as shown by the dashed blue line).</p><p><blockquote>对于投资者来说，梦想投资的企业是拥有平坦MROCE曲线的企业，如蓝色实线所示。这将是一个完全可扩展的业务。每投入一批资源都能获得持续稳定利润的企业。然而，这样的生意真的只是梦中生意。我之前提到过，收益递减对所有经济活动都有引力作用——因为它们确实如此。从来没有一个企业（至少在人类历史上没有）能够在保持资本回报率的同时保持增长。在某些时候，重力总是赶上来，回报开始下降（如蓝色虚线所示）。</blockquote></p><p> V’s MROCE</p><p><blockquote>V的MROCE</blockquote></p><p> So for investors, the next best deal is to invest in a business that A) has a high and stable ROCE, and B) that is still in the scalable stage (the gravity of diminishing return has not caught up yet). And as shown in the next chart, V seems to be such a business at such a stage.</p><p><blockquote>因此，对于投资者来说，下一个最好的交易是投资a）具有高且稳定的ROCE，B）仍处于可扩展阶段（回报递减的严重性尚未赶上）的企业。而如下图所示，V在这样一个阶段似乎就是这样一个业务。</blockquote></p><p> This chart shows the MROCE and ROCE for V over recent years. The ROCE data are the same as those shown in the previous section. The MROCE data are estimated by the following steps. First, the capital employed was calculated for each year. Second, the earnings were calculated each year. Third, then the incremental of capital employed year over year was calculated. Similarly, the incremental earnings year over year were also calculated. And finally, the ratio between the incremental earnings and incremental capital employed was calculated to approximate the MROCE. During years when there were large fluctuations in either the incremental earnings or the capital employed, a multi-year running average was taken to smooth the fluctuations.</p><p><blockquote>这张图表显示了近年来V的MROCE和ROCE。ROCE数据与上一节所示相同。通过以下步骤估计MROCE数据。首先，计算每年使用的资本。其次，每年计算收益。第三，计算每年使用的资本增量。同样，还计算了同比增量收益。最后，计算增量收益和增量资本使用之间的比率以近似MROCE。在增量盈利或资本使用波动较大的年度，采用多年运行平均法来平滑波动。</blockquote></p><p> Before we began to interpret the results, let me first clarify the difficulties of analyzing marginal return on capital and the limitations of the approach I used here. Firstly, it is just mathematically much harder to estimate the rate of change (e.g., which is what MROCE is essentially is) than the average change (which is what ROCE is essentially is). Estimating the latter involves dividing two large numbers and the uncertainties are small. Estimating the former requires dividing two small numbers and the uncertainties in the financial data can be magnified. Secondly, some capital investments in a business can take multiple years (more than 3 years) to bear fruit (or to fail). Therefore, isolating and tracking the marginal return produced by investments made in a given year is inherently difficult. Although most of the projects should begin to show results (either good or bad) in 3 years and this approach should be able to capture the dominating trend of marginal return.</p><p><blockquote>在我们开始解释结果之前，让我首先澄清分析边际资本回报率的困难以及我在这里使用的方法的局限性。首先，从数学上讲，估计变化率（例如，MROCE本质上是什么）比平均变化（ROCE本质上是什么）要困难得多。估计后者需要除以两个大数，不确定性很小。估计前者需要除以两个小数字，财务数据中的不确定性可以被放大。其次，对企业的一些资本投资可能需要多年（超过3年）才能取得成果（或失败）。因此，隔离和跟踪某一年投资产生的边际回报本质上是困难的。尽管大多数项目应该在3年内开始显示结果（无论是好的还是坏的），并且这种方法应该能够捕捉边际回报的主导趋势。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> With the above understanding, let’s look at the results closely. First, note that the extraordinarily high MROCE during the early part of the decade again provides a strong illustration of the network effects and the secular trend that support the business at a fundamental level. The business model is just too good.</p><p><blockquote>有了以上的了解，我们来仔细看看结果。首先，请注意，本世纪初极高的MROCE再次有力地说明了从根本上支持业务的网络效应和长期趋势。商业模式太好了。</blockquote></p><p> The results in the chart also show that at this stage, V has been actually able to maintain an MROCE that actually is higher than the average ROCE in recent years. As seen, the ROCE has been on average 103% in recent years, and the MROCE has been on average 157%. It was significantly lower than the 350+% level in the earlier part of the decade – gravity always tries to catch up. But it is still higher than the ROCE by a good margin. And the gap is more than 50%, too large to be caused by the uncertainties in the financial data and rounding off errors. So this result suggests that V has not entered a stage of diminishing return yet - gravity has not caught up yet. And if the current MROCE continues, V’s ROCE will maintain its current high level or even further expand.</p><p><blockquote>图表中的结果还显示，在这个阶段，V实际上能够保持实际上高于近年来平均ROCE的MROCE。可以看出，近年来ROCE平均为103%，MROCE平均为157%。这明显低于本世纪初350%以上的水平——重力总是试图迎头赶上。但仍远高于ROCE。而且差距超过50%，太大了，不可能是财务数据的不确定性和舍入误差造成的。所以这个结果表明V还没有进入收益递减阶段——重力还没有赶上。而如果目前的MROCE继续下去，V的ROCE将维持目前的高水平，甚至进一步扩大。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cea9c214b6d0dd15d8f9c5c1392272e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha data.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha数据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> After the above discussion of its profitability sustainability, let’s look at the valuation. At its current price levels, V’s PE is about 44x and FW PE is about 39.6x. The valuation is both high in absolute terms and also high in relative terms. For example, when compared to the FAAMG pack, V’s current valuation is only lower than Amazon (AMZN) in terms of the PE multiple and higher than all the others.</p><p><blockquote>以上讨论完其盈利持续性，我们再来看看估值。在目前的价格水平上，V的PE约为44倍，FW PE约为39.6倍。估值无论是绝对值还是相对值都很高。例如，与FAAMG pack相比，V目前的估值仅低于亚马逊(AMZN)的市盈率，高于所有其他公司。</blockquote></p><p> It is not that meaningful to discuss valuation in isolation and without adjusting for the quality of the business. The next chart therefore also compares V valuation adjusted for its ROCE with its peers. If you are familiar with Buffett’s holdings, you would recognize that the stocks in this chart represent some of the large BRK holdings.</p><p><blockquote>如果不根据业务质量进行调整，孤立地讨论估值是没有意义的。因此，下一张图表还将根据ROCE调整后的V估值与同行进行了比较。如果您熟悉巴菲特的持股，您就会认识到这张图表中的股票代表了BRK的一些大型持股。</blockquote></p><p> I am not sure what the picture will look like as we add more data points on this chart (I do plan to organize my notes on other BRK major holdings and add more data points onto this plot). But with the few data points I have now, I cannot help drawing/seeing the green line - what I call a Buffett value line. It is a line linking AbbVie Inc (ABBV) and AAPL - a good business at a good price and a high-quality business at a high price. So from a value investor point of view, it only makes sense to make investments along this line or below it. Because investment along this line or below represents a trade-off between quality and price that is equivalent or better than ABBV or AAPL. It makes no sense to invest above this line, as anything above this line represents an inferior trade-off between quality and price - we'd be better off just investing in ABBV and AAPL.</p><p><blockquote>我不确定当我们在这张图表上添加更多数据点时，情况会是什么样子（我确实计划组织我对其他BRK主要持股的笔记，并在这张图表上添加更多数据点）。但凭借我现在掌握的几个数据点，我忍不住画出/看到了绿线——我看涨期权的巴菲特价值线。它是连接艾伯维公司（ABBV）和苹果公司的一条线——物美价廉的好企业和高价的高质量企业。因此，从价值投资者的角度来看，只有沿着这条线或低于这条线进行投资才有意义。因为沿着这条线或以下的投资代表了质量和价格之间的权衡，相当于或优于ABBV或AAPL。投资高于这条线是没有意义的，因为高于这条线的任何东西都代表着质量和价格之间的劣质权衡——我们最好只投资ABBV和AAPL。</blockquote></p><p> As you can see, V is currently way above the green line, showing a valuation that is only expensive by itself, but also when adjusted for its ROCE – even if it is superb ROCE.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，V目前远高于绿线，表明其估值不仅本身昂贵，而且在根据其ROCE进行调整后也很昂贵——即使它的ROCE非常出色。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e9fbfdb9a53f0dac2386fcfaf067800\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha data.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha数据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Catalysts and risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>催化剂和风险</b></blockquote></p><p> The long-term catalyst is the trend of digital transactions as mentioned at the beginning of the article. In my view, this trend is unstoppable. The expansive deployment of e-commerce platforms will further accelerate this transition.</p><p><blockquote>长期催化剂是文章开头提到的数字化交易趋势。在我看来，这个趋势是不可阻挡的。电子商务平台的广泛部署将进一步加速这一转变。</blockquote></p><p> The most significant catalyst and also a risk at the same time in the near term is the direction and the pace of the economic recovery. If economic activities and especially travel activities resume to their normal level, V will benefit significantly, as commented by the CFO:</p><p><blockquote>短期内最重要的催化剂，同时也是风险，是经济复苏的方向和步伐。正如首席财务官所评论的，如果经济活动，尤其是旅游活动恢复到正常水平，V将受益匪浅：</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   \"We have seen immediate impacts since popular travel destinations opened their borders. Greece opened borders in April, and inbound card-present spend rose nearly 30 points by the end of June relative to 2019 levels. France opened on June 9, and inbound card-present volumes rose nearly 20 points by the end of June relative to 2019 ... Since April, card-present cross-border spend in Mexico from the U.S. rose nearly 50 points to over 170% of 2019 levels.\"    <i>Vasant Prabhu, Visa CFO (Q3 FY21 earnings call)</i>  In terms of risks, I see a valuation risk here as aforementioned. In terms of business fundamentals, I really do not see any risks in the near- or even long-term. The economic recovery from the pandemic mentioned above is not really a fundamental risk in my view. Even if it develops in the wrong direction and/or at a pace slower than expected, it is at most a temporary hiccup for V. The business model is too robust and too scalable. In the really long term, we can only speculate. The disruption from Fintechs and Crypto currency must be a potential risk in the long term. I suggest readers interested in these discussions to read the analysis published by&nbsp;Natalie Koo.</p><p><blockquote>“自从热门旅游目的地开放边境以来，我们已经看到了直接的影响。希腊在4月份开放了边境，到6月底，入境持卡消费相对于2019年的水平增长了近30个百分点。法国于6月9日开放，截至6月底，入境持卡量相对于2019年增长了近20个百分点...自4月份以来，从美国到墨西哥的持卡跨境消费增长了近50个百分点，达到2019年水平的170%以上。”<i>Vasant Prabhu，Visa首席财务官（2021财年第三季度看涨期权收益）</i>就风险而言，我看到了前面提到的估值风险。就业务基本面而言，我确实认为短期甚至长期没有任何风险。在我看来，上述疫情的经济复苏并不是真正的根本性风险。即使它朝着错误的方向发展和/或以比预期更慢的速度发展，对V来说也最多是暂时的打嗝。商业模式太健壮，可扩展性太强。从真正的长期来看，我们只能猜测。从长远来看，金融科技和加密货币的破坏肯定是一个潜在的风险。我建议对这些讨论感兴趣的读者阅读Natalie Koo发表的分析。</blockquote></p><p> Conclusion and final thought</p><p><blockquote>结论和最后的思考</blockquote></p><p> This article analyzes Visa Inc (V), with a focus on its profit sustainability and scalability. This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit Sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the most two important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the two most fundamental aspects of the same central issue of profit Sustainability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is SO FAR. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.</p><p><blockquote>本文分析Visa Inc(V)，重点关注其利润可持续性和可扩展性。该分析考察了利润可持续性最重要的两个方面：已用资本回报率(“ROCE”)和已用资本边际回报率(“MROCE”)。对我来说，ROCE和MROCE是分析企业最重要的两个指标。它们揭示了利润可持续性这一核心问题的两个最基本的方面。ROCE告诉我们该业务迄今为止的盈利能力。MROCE深入了解了盈利能力可能走向的方向。</blockquote></p><p> The results show that:</p><p><blockquote>结果表明：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>V not only earns a consistently high ROCE in the past but is still perfectly scalable at its current stage, indicating sustainable profit ahead.</li>  <li>The ROCE has been on average about 103% and compares very favorably against overachievers which are exemplary scalable stocks.</li>  <li>And the MROCE has been on average 157% in recent years. So this result suggests that V has not reached the stage of diminishing return yet - gravity has not caught up yet. It is truly impressive for a business at such a staggering scale (which processes $15 trillion of transaction volume last year) to still maintain perfect scalability.</li>  <li>Lastly, this article also discusses its valuation, especially valuation adjusted for ROCE compared to other stocks that enjoy superb scalability using what I call the Buffett value line. V is currently way above the value line, showing its valuation to be only expensive by itself, but also when adjusted for its ROCE – even if it is superb ROCE.</li> </ul> As such, my final verdict is that it is still a perfectly scalable business, but it is more than perfectly priced. Investment at this point will take some time, patience, and commitment for the growth to catch up with the valuation. It is only for long-term committed investors (with at least 5+ years of time horizon) who could hold to it and sit out any potential near-term valuation volatilities.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>V不仅在过去获得了持续较高的ROCE，而且在当前阶段仍然具有完美的可扩展性，表明未来将实现可持续利润。</li><li>ROCE平均约为103%，与表现优异的股票（典型的可扩展股票）相比非常有利。</li><li>近年来MROCE平均为157%。所以这个结果表明V还没有达到收益递减的阶段——重力还没有赶上。对于规模如此惊人（去年处理了15万亿美元的交易量）的企业来说，仍然保持完美的可扩展性确实令人印象深刻。</li><li>最后，本文还讨论了其估值，特别是与使用我看涨期权的巴菲特价值线享有卓越可扩展性的其他股票相比，根据ROCE调整的估值。V目前远高于价值线，这表明其估值不仅本身昂贵，而且在根据ROCE进行调整后也很昂贵——即使它的ROCE非常出色。</li></ul>因此，我的最终结论是，它仍然是一个完全可扩展的业务，但它的定价不仅仅是完美的。此时的投资需要一些时间、耐心和承诺，让增长赶上估值。它只适合长期承诺的投资者（至少有5年以上的时间范围），他们可以坚持下去，不受任何潜在的近期估值波动的影响。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459179-visa-stock-scalability-and-buffett-value-line\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"V":"Visa"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459179-visa-stock-scalability-and-buffett-value-line","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174273121","content_text":"Summary\n\nThis article analyzes Visa from the perspective of its profit sustainability and scalability.\nThis analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and the marginal efficiency of capital.\nThe results show that V not only earns a consistently high ROCE in the past but is still perfectly scalable at its current stage, indicating sustainable profit ahead.\nLastly, this article also discusses its valuation, especially valuation adjusted for ROCE compared to other stocks that enjoy superb scalability using what I call the Buffett value line.\n\nJustin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nInvestment thesis\nThis article analyzes Visa Inc (V), with a focus on its profit sustainability and scalability. This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit Sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the most two important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the two most fundamental aspects of the same central issue of profit Sustainability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is SO FAR. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.\nThe results show that V not only earns a consistently high ROCE in the past but is still perfectly scalable at its current stage, indicating sustainable profit ahead. It is truly impressive for a business at such a staggering scale to maintain perfect scalability. Lastly, this article also discusses its valuation, especially valuation adjusted for ROCE and valuation compared to the other stocks that are exemplary scalable stocks (such as the FAAMG stocks and Buffett style stocks).\nThe moat and the network effects\nV’s moat is in its scale and scalability, best demonstrated in the following two charts. The first chart shows the number of credit, debit, and prepaid cards in circulation worldwide from 2017 to 2019, with forecasts for 2023 and 2025. In 2019, there were 22.8 billion credit, debit, and prepaid cards in circulation worldwide. This figure is set to reach 29.31 billion by 2023, a 28% increase from the 2019 level. This figure will further increase to surpass 30 billion by 2025, a 34% increase from the 2019 level. In other words, the total cards in circulation will increase by more than 1/3 by 2025. The trend of digital transactions is unstoppable.\nThe second chart shows that V, as the leading player in this space, will benefit the most from this secular trend. V is the world’s largest retail electronic payments network providing processing services and payment product platforms. This includes credit, debit, prepaid, and commercial payments, which are offered under the Visa, Visa Electron, Interlink, and PLUS brands. Visa/PLUS is one of the largest global ATM networks. V facilitates digital payments across more than 200 countries and territories. It has 3.6 billion cards in circulation, about 16% of the total number of cards in circulation globally. It processes a mindboggling amount of transactions – 206 billion payment transactions and a total transaction volume of $12.5 trillion in 2020 – an undisputed dominance of the payment network.\nSource: Statista\nSource: Visa USA.\nFurthermore, it is unlikely that such dominance would change in the future (barring any major regulation or antitrust legislation change) due to the so-called \"network effects\". The network effects refer to the fact that the value of certain products or services increases as more people use them. In other words, certain networks become increasingly more valuable as they become bigger. Not every network enjoys this magic feature, and as a matter of fact, most networks suffer a diminishing marginal rate of return – i.e., the additional return decreases as the network becomes bigger – as to be elaborated later. A chain restaurant network is an example. As the network becomes larger, the nodes begin to compete against each other for customers and the return diminishes.\nBut certain networks, like the services V provides, enjoy this magic trait – the network becomes more profitable as it becomes bigger. There is nothing new about the concept. It was true of railways, telephones, and fax machines. All these examples share these common traits: A) the larger the network becomes, the more valuable it becomes (one segment of a railway linking city A and B is far more valuable when this segment also links to other railways linking other cities); and B) the larger the network becomes, the higher the switching cost (if everyone uses a fax machine and you do not want to use one, good luck to you).\nAgain, there is nothing new about the concept. But the internet age dramatically amplified the potency of the network effects. Once a lead is established – for whatever the reason – the network effects would just kick in, take over, and compound itself.\nIt is a self-sustaining positive feedback loop: more users in this network will lead to more convenience, better efficiency, lower cost, which will make the network even better and more valuable for its users and clients, which will, in turn, attract more new users and clients to join and make it harder for existing users to leave, which again will lead back to more users and an even larger network. And such feedback will be reflected in a very high level of return on capital employed (“ROCE”) as to be seen later.\nUnfortunately, like all good things eventually run to an end, so do the benefits of the above network effects. At some point, gravity always catches up, and return begins to diminish. In the railway example, if enough railways have already been built to link all cities with high population density, building the next segment would suffer a diminished return now. In the fax machine example, if every office already has one, adding a second one to each office would also suffer a diminished return.\nTherefore, as investors, we do not only need to examine the ROCE, but also equally importantly, to examine the marginal return. Because the marginal return tells us if the business is still in a scalable stage, or if the business has already passed the tipping point of scalability and begins to see a diminishing return. In another word, MROCE let us see if the gravity of diminishing return has caught up yet or not.\nAnd the remainder of this article will examine both aspects next.\nReturn on capital employed (“ROCE”)\nROCE stands for the return on capital employed. Note that ROCE is different from the return on equity (and more fundamental and important in my view). ROCE considers the return of capital ACTUALLY employed, and therefore provides insight into how effectively the business uses its capital to earn a profit. Readers interested in the details of the ROCE analysis can find them in my earlier article. Here I will just summarize the results in the chart below. In these results, I considered the following items capital actually employed A) Working capital (including payables, receivables, inventory), B) Gross Property, Plant, and Equipment, C) Research and development expenses are capitalized, and D) the intangible book value, mainly consisting of intellectual property and patents for such a business.\nAs seen, it was able to maintain an astronomical level of ROCE over the past decade: on average ~103%. To put things in perspective, the next chart compares V’s ROCE against the FAAMG stocks – a group of businesses that exploits the network effects to the extreme. As can be seen, V earns a very competitive ROCE among them – only second to Apple (AAPL). Every $1 of earning reinvested will fuel more than $1 of additional future earnings growth on average.\nSource: author and Seeking Alpha.\nSource: author and Seeking Alpha.\nIntroduction to marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”)\nIn addition to ROCE, an equally important concept is the marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the most two important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the most fundamental two aspects of the same central issue of profitability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is SO FAR. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.\nA bit of background and introduction for readers who are new to the concept. For readers familiar with the concept already, definitely skip this section. From what I’ve learned, the legendary economist John Maynard Keynes first explicitly expressed this concept, although people before him have observed and thought about it for some time already. What the concept tries to capture is a basic law in economic activities: the law of diminishing returns. Warren Buffett likes to say that interest rate acts like gravity on all economic activities. Well, diminishing returns act like gravity on all economic activities too, if not more so, as long as human nature does not change in any fundamental way.\nThe next chart illustrates the concept. As long as shareholders are seeking profit, a public business will first invest its money at projects with the highest possible rate of return (i.e., picking the lowest hanging apples first or getting the most bang for the buck first). Therefore, the first batch of available resources is invested at a high rate of return – the highest the business can possibly identify. The second batch of money will have to be invested at a somewhat lower rate of return since the best ideas have been taken by the first batch of resources already, and so on. The last batch of money invested may earn a rate of return that is only above the cost of capital. And finally, the end result is a declining MROCE curve as shown.\nSource: author\nThe ROCE we normally talk about and companies report refers to the average of this curve – averaging the return on all batches of money invested. Obviously, the average is very useful information by itself. It tells us how efficiently the business has been converting resources into profit so far – but its limitation is that it only tells us the efficiency of the resources that have already been invested SO FAR. What is of equal importance to investors is the MROCE, which tells us how much incremental profit the business WILL generate when the next batch of resources are invested.\nFor investors, a dream business to invest in would be a business that enjoys a flat MROCE curve as shown by the solid blue line. This would be a business that is perfectly scalable. A business that earns a consistent and stable profit for every batch of resources invested. However, such a business is really only a dream business. I mentioned earlier that diminishing returns act like gravity on all economic activities - because they really do. There has been no business (at least not so far in human history) that can keep growing while at the same time maintaining a constant return on capital. At some point, gravity always catches up and the return begins to decline (as shown by the dashed blue line).\nV’s MROCE\nSo for investors, the next best deal is to invest in a business that A) has a high and stable ROCE, and B) that is still in the scalable stage (the gravity of diminishing return has not caught up yet). And as shown in the next chart, V seems to be such a business at such a stage.\nThis chart shows the MROCE and ROCE for V over recent years. The ROCE data are the same as those shown in the previous section. The MROCE data are estimated by the following steps. First, the capital employed was calculated for each year. Second, the earnings were calculated each year. Third, then the incremental of capital employed year over year was calculated. Similarly, the incremental earnings year over year were also calculated. And finally, the ratio between the incremental earnings and incremental capital employed was calculated to approximate the MROCE. During years when there were large fluctuations in either the incremental earnings or the capital employed, a multi-year running average was taken to smooth the fluctuations.\nBefore we began to interpret the results, let me first clarify the difficulties of analyzing marginal return on capital and the limitations of the approach I used here. Firstly, it is just mathematically much harder to estimate the rate of change (e.g., which is what MROCE is essentially is) than the average change (which is what ROCE is essentially is). Estimating the latter involves dividing two large numbers and the uncertainties are small. Estimating the former requires dividing two small numbers and the uncertainties in the financial data can be magnified. Secondly, some capital investments in a business can take multiple years (more than 3 years) to bear fruit (or to fail). Therefore, isolating and tracking the marginal return produced by investments made in a given year is inherently difficult. Although most of the projects should begin to show results (either good or bad) in 3 years and this approach should be able to capture the dominating trend of marginal return.\nWith the above understanding, let’s look at the results closely. First, note that the extraordinarily high MROCE during the early part of the decade again provides a strong illustration of the network effects and the secular trend that support the business at a fundamental level. The business model is just too good.\nThe results in the chart also show that at this stage, V has been actually able to maintain an MROCE that actually is higher than the average ROCE in recent years. As seen, the ROCE has been on average 103% in recent years, and the MROCE has been on average 157%. It was significantly lower than the 350+% level in the earlier part of the decade – gravity always tries to catch up. But it is still higher than the ROCE by a good margin. And the gap is more than 50%, too large to be caused by the uncertainties in the financial data and rounding off errors. So this result suggests that V has not entered a stage of diminishing return yet - gravity has not caught up yet. And if the current MROCE continues, V’s ROCE will maintain its current high level or even further expand.\nSource: author and Seeking Alpha data.\nValuation\nAfter the above discussion of its profitability sustainability, let’s look at the valuation. At its current price levels, V’s PE is about 44x and FW PE is about 39.6x. The valuation is both high in absolute terms and also high in relative terms. For example, when compared to the FAAMG pack, V’s current valuation is only lower than Amazon (AMZN) in terms of the PE multiple and higher than all the others.\nIt is not that meaningful to discuss valuation in isolation and without adjusting for the quality of the business. The next chart therefore also compares V valuation adjusted for its ROCE with its peers. If you are familiar with Buffett’s holdings, you would recognize that the stocks in this chart represent some of the large BRK holdings.\nI am not sure what the picture will look like as we add more data points on this chart (I do plan to organize my notes on other BRK major holdings and add more data points onto this plot). But with the few data points I have now, I cannot help drawing/seeing the green line - what I call a Buffett value line. It is a line linking AbbVie Inc (ABBV) and AAPL - a good business at a good price and a high-quality business at a high price. So from a value investor point of view, it only makes sense to make investments along this line or below it. Because investment along this line or below represents a trade-off between quality and price that is equivalent or better than ABBV or AAPL. It makes no sense to invest above this line, as anything above this line represents an inferior trade-off between quality and price - we'd be better off just investing in ABBV and AAPL.\nAs you can see, V is currently way above the green line, showing a valuation that is only expensive by itself, but also when adjusted for its ROCE – even if it is superb ROCE.\nSource: author and Seeking Alpha data.\nCatalysts and risks\nThe long-term catalyst is the trend of digital transactions as mentioned at the beginning of the article. In my view, this trend is unstoppable. The expansive deployment of e-commerce platforms will further accelerate this transition.\nThe most significant catalyst and also a risk at the same time in the near term is the direction and the pace of the economic recovery. If economic activities and especially travel activities resume to their normal level, V will benefit significantly, as commented by the CFO:\n\n \"We have seen immediate impacts since popular travel destinations opened their borders. Greece opened borders in April, and inbound card-present spend rose nearly 30 points by the end of June relative to 2019 levels. France opened on June 9, and inbound card-present volumes rose nearly 20 points by the end of June relative to 2019 ... Since April, card-present cross-border spend in Mexico from the U.S. rose nearly 50 points to over 170% of 2019 levels.\"\n\n\nVasant Prabhu, Visa CFO (Q3 FY21 earnings call)\n\nIn terms of risks, I see a valuation risk here as aforementioned. In terms of business fundamentals, I really do not see any risks in the near- or even long-term. The economic recovery from the pandemic mentioned above is not really a fundamental risk in my view. Even if it develops in the wrong direction and/or at a pace slower than expected, it is at most a temporary hiccup for V. The business model is too robust and too scalable. In the really long term, we can only speculate. The disruption from Fintechs and Crypto currency must be a potential risk in the long term. I suggest readers interested in these discussions to read the analysis published by Natalie Koo.\nConclusion and final thought\nThis article analyzes Visa Inc (V), with a focus on its profit sustainability and scalability. This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit Sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the most two important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the two most fundamental aspects of the same central issue of profit Sustainability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is SO FAR. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.\nThe results show that:\n\nV not only earns a consistently high ROCE in the past but is still perfectly scalable at its current stage, indicating sustainable profit ahead.\nThe ROCE has been on average about 103% and compares very favorably against overachievers which are exemplary scalable stocks.\nAnd the MROCE has been on average 157% in recent years. So this result suggests that V has not reached the stage of diminishing return yet - gravity has not caught up yet. It is truly impressive for a business at such a staggering scale (which processes $15 trillion of transaction volume last year) to still maintain perfect scalability.\nLastly, this article also discusses its valuation, especially valuation adjusted for ROCE compared to other stocks that enjoy superb scalability using what I call the Buffett value line. V is currently way above the value line, showing its valuation to be only expensive by itself, but also when adjusted for its ROCE – even if it is superb ROCE.\n\nAs such, my final verdict is that it is still a perfectly scalable business, but it is more than perfectly priced. Investment at this point will take some time, patience, and commitment for the growth to catch up with the valuation. It is only for long-term committed investors (with at least 5+ years of time horizon) who could hold to it and sit out any potential near-term valuation volatilities.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"V":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2849,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":815125876,"gmtCreate":1630658490995,"gmtModify":1631890918738,"author":{"id":"3555822052484377","authorId":"3555822052484377","name":"Tongs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a38d6dcec089553bed2e9e999c283a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555822052484377","idStr":"3555822052484377"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"LETZ GOOOO","listText":"LETZ GOOOO","text":"LETZ GOOOO","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/815125876","repostId":"1115885693","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115885693","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1630657884,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1115885693?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-03 16:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Meta Materials shares jumped 9.5% in premarket trading<blockquote>Meta Materials股价盘前交易上涨9.5%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115885693","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Meta Materials shares jumped 9.5% in premarket trading.\nAs growth investors focus on companies with ","content":"<p>Meta&nbsp;Materials&nbsp;shares&nbsp;jumped&nbsp;9.5%&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>Meta Materials股价在盘前交易中上涨9.</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6735d98c58dd37f7b480d596413f56f0\" tg-width=\"872\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As growth investors focus on companies with high-end, innovative technologies, Meta Materials has come into focus. This is a company designed to be the next-generation growth stock investors are looking for. The company produces a range of high-performance nano composites and other functional materials powering the explosive technological growth our economy is seeing.</p><p><blockquote>随着成长型投资者关注拥有高端创新技术的公司，Meta Materials成为人们关注的焦点。这家公司旨在成为投资者正在寻找的下一代成长型股票。该公司生产一系列高性能纳米复合材料和其他功能材料，为我们经济的爆炸性技术增长提供动力。</blockquote></p><p> Accordingly, Meta Materials is growing in interest among investors as a “picks and shovels” play on various strong secular catalysts. A speculative pick, Meta Materials provides investors with tremendous growth potential.</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者对Meta Materials越来越感兴趣，因为它是各种强大的长期催化剂的“镐和铲子”游戏。Meta Materials是一种投机性选择，为投资者提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> However, another key catalyst appears to be driving MMAT stock. Let’s dive into what investors are focusing on right now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，另一个关键催化剂似乎正在推动MMAT股票。让我们深入了解投资者目前关注的内容。</blockquote></p><p> Potential short-squeeze stocks have been taking off once again this past week. For investors in Meta Materials, this is a good thing.</p><p><blockquote>过去一周，潜在的轧空股票再次起飞。对于元材料的投资者来说，这是一件好事。</blockquote></p><p> It appears Meta Materials has made the short-squeeze list among many retail traders. However, yesteday, an&nbsp;<b>S3 Partners</b>&nbsp;executive outlined his short-squeeze thesis for MMAT stock. This call, via a&nbsp;<i>CNBC</i>&nbsp;interview, has unsurprisingly emboldened retail traders to jump into MMAT stock.</p><p><blockquote>Meta Materials似乎已被许多散户交易者列入轧空名单。然而昨天，一个<b>S3合作伙伴</b>高管概述了他对MMAT股票的轧空论点。这个看涨期权，通过一个<i>CNBC</i>采访，不出所料，鼓励散户交易者买入MMAT股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Meta Materials shares jumped 9.5% in premarket trading<blockquote>Meta Materials股价盘前交易上涨9.5%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMeta Materials shares jumped 9.5% in premarket trading<blockquote>Meta Materials股价盘前交易上涨9.5%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-03 16:31</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Meta&nbsp;Materials&nbsp;shares&nbsp;jumped&nbsp;9.5%&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>Meta Materials股价在盘前交易中上涨9.</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6735d98c58dd37f7b480d596413f56f0\" tg-width=\"872\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As growth investors focus on companies with high-end, innovative technologies, Meta Materials has come into focus. This is a company designed to be the next-generation growth stock investors are looking for. The company produces a range of high-performance nano composites and other functional materials powering the explosive technological growth our economy is seeing.</p><p><blockquote>随着成长型投资者关注拥有高端创新技术的公司，Meta Materials成为人们关注的焦点。这家公司旨在成为投资者正在寻找的下一代成长型股票。该公司生产一系列高性能纳米复合材料和其他功能材料，为我们经济的爆炸性技术增长提供动力。</blockquote></p><p> Accordingly, Meta Materials is growing in interest among investors as a “picks and shovels” play on various strong secular catalysts. A speculative pick, Meta Materials provides investors with tremendous growth potential.</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者对Meta Materials越来越感兴趣，因为它是各种强大的长期催化剂的“镐和铲子”游戏。Meta Materials是一种投机性选择，为投资者提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> However, another key catalyst appears to be driving MMAT stock. Let’s dive into what investors are focusing on right now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，另一个关键催化剂似乎正在推动MMAT股票。让我们深入了解投资者目前关注的内容。</blockquote></p><p> Potential short-squeeze stocks have been taking off once again this past week. For investors in Meta Materials, this is a good thing.</p><p><blockquote>过去一周，潜在的轧空股票再次起飞。对于元材料的投资者来说，这是一件好事。</blockquote></p><p> It appears Meta Materials has made the short-squeeze list among many retail traders. However, yesteday, an&nbsp;<b>S3 Partners</b>&nbsp;executive outlined his short-squeeze thesis for MMAT stock. This call, via a&nbsp;<i>CNBC</i>&nbsp;interview, has unsurprisingly emboldened retail traders to jump into MMAT stock.</p><p><blockquote>Meta Materials似乎已被许多散户交易者列入轧空名单。然而昨天，一个<b>S3合作伙伴</b>高管概述了他对MMAT股票的轧空论点。这个看涨期权，通过一个<i>CNBC</i>采访，不出所料，鼓励散户交易者买入MMAT股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MMAT":"Meta Materials Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115885693","content_text":"Meta Materials shares jumped 9.5% in premarket trading.\nAs growth investors focus on companies with high-end, innovative technologies, Meta Materials has come into focus. This is a company designed to be the next-generation growth stock investors are looking for. The company produces a range of high-performance nano composites and other functional materials powering the explosive technological growth our economy is seeing.\nAccordingly, Meta Materials is growing in interest among investors as a “picks and shovels” play on various strong secular catalysts. A speculative pick, Meta Materials provides investors with tremendous growth potential.\nHowever, another key catalyst appears to be driving MMAT stock. Let’s dive into what investors are focusing on right now.\nPotential short-squeeze stocks have been taking off once again this past week. For investors in Meta Materials, this is a good thing.\nIt appears Meta Materials has made the short-squeeze list among many retail traders. However, yesteday, an S3 Partners executive outlined his short-squeeze thesis for MMAT stock. This call, via a CNBC interview, has unsurprisingly emboldened retail traders to jump into MMAT stock.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MMAT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1731,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":812536306,"gmtCreate":1630593749305,"gmtModify":1631890918738,"author":{"id":"3555822052484377","authorId":"3555822052484377","name":"Tongs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a38d6dcec089553bed2e9e999c283a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555822052484377","idStr":"3555822052484377"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh wow","listText":"Oh wow","text":"Oh wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/812536306","repostId":"812867185","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":812867185,"gmtCreate":1630574774144,"gmtModify":1750507674941,"author":{"id":"3502767768442965","authorId":"3502767768442965","name":"话题虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d418c2def5dc1d094b03270b450f71ce","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3502767768442965","idStr":"3502767768442965"},"themes":[],"title":"【故事会】17岁学生花30万玩“女仆桌游”，是轻娱乐or软色情？","htmlText":"栏目说明：小话不定期给大家分享有趣的故事，内容来源于网络，希望给您带来更好的阅读体验！ 转自公众号：财经连环话 这个世界越来越魔幻了 轱辘慧我看不懂…… 最近 西安一个即将踏上出国留学之旅的17岁学生 却在暑假疯狂消费 花光了用以验资的30万留学费用…… 其中仅一家“女仆桌游”就先后消费了一万七千元 最高一次消费了近6000块 并且在家长打印的银行卡消费记录里 消费支付时间都是晚上 有时甚至是晚上11点多 家长追问孩子是否有不雅行为 孩子也不肯回答 那孩子在“女仆桌游店”里究竟消费了什么呢 在随后华商报对店家的采访中 店家解释 桌游是一种健康益智游戏 “女仆”不过是助教而已 并且他们是“证照齐全明码标价” 只是除了“女仆陪玩”的价格外 用途不清的打赏女仆费用 私加女仆微信的费用如何体现健康益智 店家没多说 还表示加微信收费是“为了防止女孩们被骚扰，收费了就没人加了” 好家伙 逆向思维让他们玩明白了属于是 女仆店本身是个新鲜事物吗？ 并不是 在上世纪90年代 非色情化的女仆形象就在日本有过一阵爆发式的增长 《魔力女管家》《花右京女仆队》等女仆漫画在国内也十分知名 即使到现在 “女仆”也是日本漫画的一个重要元素 在“女仆文化”兴起的同时 各种女仆咖啡厅也如雨后春笋般涌现 日本雄厚的宅男群体成了他们最坚实的消费者 与之前刚刚传入国内的女仆店类似 女仆咖啡的服务基本上跟保洁阿姨没有本质区别 只不过穿着更具特色 最多衍生出给你的蛋包饭画个心的萌系（尴尬）服务 但这种小资产阶级情怀往往是最容易被腐蚀的角落 尤其是在情色文化发达的日本 正经女仆店逐渐成了末流 cosplay特色的风俗店姬逐渐取代了原本的“大正女仆” 原本典雅端庄的西洋女仆装 也衍生出这种护心毛天敌装束 在陪玩服务早已拥有成熟市场的国内 线下的女仆店也开始时兴 除了二次元文化 独特的桌游文化也成了女仆陪玩的重要组成部分 众","listText":"栏目说明：小话不定期给大家分享有趣的故事，内容来源于网络，希望给您带来更好的阅读体验！ 转自公众号：财经连环话 这个世界越来越魔幻了 轱辘慧我看不懂…… 最近 西安一个即将踏上出国留学之旅的17岁学生 却在暑假疯狂消费 花光了用以验资的30万留学费用…… 其中仅一家“女仆桌游”就先后消费了一万七千元 最高一次消费了近6000块 并且在家长打印的银行卡消费记录里 消费支付时间都是晚上 有时甚至是晚上11点多 家长追问孩子是否有不雅行为 孩子也不肯回答 那孩子在“女仆桌游店”里究竟消费了什么呢 在随后华商报对店家的采访中 店家解释 桌游是一种健康益智游戏 “女仆”不过是助教而已 并且他们是“证照齐全明码标价” 只是除了“女仆陪玩”的价格外 用途不清的打赏女仆费用 私加女仆微信的费用如何体现健康益智 店家没多说 还表示加微信收费是“为了防止女孩们被骚扰，收费了就没人加了” 好家伙 逆向思维让他们玩明白了属于是 女仆店本身是个新鲜事物吗？ 并不是 在上世纪90年代 非色情化的女仆形象就在日本有过一阵爆发式的增长 《魔力女管家》《花右京女仆队》等女仆漫画在国内也十分知名 即使到现在 “女仆”也是日本漫画的一个重要元素 在“女仆文化”兴起的同时 各种女仆咖啡厅也如雨后春笋般涌现 日本雄厚的宅男群体成了他们最坚实的消费者 与之前刚刚传入国内的女仆店类似 女仆咖啡的服务基本上跟保洁阿姨没有本质区别 只不过穿着更具特色 最多衍生出给你的蛋包饭画个心的萌系（尴尬）服务 但这种小资产阶级情怀往往是最容易被腐蚀的角落 尤其是在情色文化发达的日本 正经女仆店逐渐成了末流 cosplay特色的风俗店姬逐渐取代了原本的“大正女仆” 原本典雅端庄的西洋女仆装 也衍生出这种护心毛天敌装束 在陪玩服务早已拥有成熟市场的国内 线下的女仆店也开始时兴 除了二次元文化 独特的桌游文化也成了女仆陪玩的重要组成部分 众","text":"栏目说明：小话不定期给大家分享有趣的故事，内容来源于网络，希望给您带来更好的阅读体验！ 转自公众号：财经连环话 这个世界越来越魔幻了 轱辘慧我看不懂…… 最近 西安一个即将踏上出国留学之旅的17岁学生 却在暑假疯狂消费 花光了用以验资的30万留学费用…… 其中仅一家“女仆桌游”就先后消费了一万七千元 最高一次消费了近6000块 并且在家长打印的银行卡消费记录里 消费支付时间都是晚上 有时甚至是晚上11点多 家长追问孩子是否有不雅行为 孩子也不肯回答 那孩子在“女仆桌游店”里究竟消费了什么呢 在随后华商报对店家的采访中 店家解释 桌游是一种健康益智游戏 “女仆”不过是助教而已 并且他们是“证照齐全明码标价” 只是除了“女仆陪玩”的价格外 用途不清的打赏女仆费用 私加女仆微信的费用如何体现健康益智 店家没多说 还表示加微信收费是“为了防止女孩们被骚扰，收费了就没人加了” 好家伙 逆向思维让他们玩明白了属于是 女仆店本身是个新鲜事物吗？ 并不是 在上世纪90年代 非色情化的女仆形象就在日本有过一阵爆发式的增长 《魔力女管家》《花右京女仆队》等女仆漫画在国内也十分知名 即使到现在 “女仆”也是日本漫画的一个重要元素 在“女仆文化”兴起的同时 各种女仆咖啡厅也如雨后春笋般涌现 日本雄厚的宅男群体成了他们最坚实的消费者 与之前刚刚传入国内的女仆店类似 女仆咖啡的服务基本上跟保洁阿姨没有本质区别 只不过穿着更具特色 最多衍生出给你的蛋包饭画个心的萌系（尴尬）服务 但这种小资产阶级情怀往往是最容易被腐蚀的角落 尤其是在情色文化发达的日本 正经女仆店逐渐成了末流 cosplay特色的风俗店姬逐渐取代了原本的“大正女仆” 原本典雅端庄的西洋女仆装 也衍生出这种护心毛天敌装束 在陪玩服务早已拥有成熟市场的国内 线下的女仆店也开始时兴 除了二次元文化 独特的桌游文化也成了女仆陪玩的重要组成部分 众","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ff8027b58094a50cb5d51048422f977","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/477bc126cd32a979c0f908ace32f9031","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8d3845beed1e2e3129dbf2d29fdba3a","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/812867185","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"comments":[],"imageCount":19,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1530,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":810556420,"gmtCreate":1629987982360,"gmtModify":1704954259830,"author":{"id":"3555822052484377","authorId":"3555822052484377","name":"Tongs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a38d6dcec089553bed2e9e999c283a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555822052484377","idStr":"3555822052484377"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okay","listText":"Okay","text":"Okay","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/810556420","repostId":"2162097438","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3364,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":890602729,"gmtCreate":1628098989361,"gmtModify":1631890918744,"author":{"id":"3555822052484377","authorId":"3555822052484377","name":"Tongs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a38d6dcec089553bed2e9e999c283a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555822052484377","idStr":"3555822052484377"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Weee","listText":"Weee","text":"Weee","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/890602729","repostId":"1132985416","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1371,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":178387843,"gmtCreate":1626788477782,"gmtModify":1631890918750,"author":{"id":"3555822052484377","authorId":"3555822052484377","name":"Tongs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a38d6dcec089553bed2e9e999c283a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555822052484377","idStr":"3555822052484377"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okay","listText":"Okay","text":"Okay","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178387843","repostId":"1188133258","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188133258","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626787650,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1188133258?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-20 21:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Says \"Don't Buy This Dip\" And Here's Why...<blockquote>高盛表示“不要逢低买入”，原因如下...</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188133258","media":"zerohedge","summary":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-we","content":"<p>At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...</p><p><blockquote>本月初，高盛交易员约翰·弗洛德（John Flood）正确地表示，我们正在进入一年中最好的两周季节性时期，本月的前18天传统上是市场最强劲的时期...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> ... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.</p><p><blockquote>...随后预测空头将不得不回补，在此期间，我们看到16个交易日中有13个交易日创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&amp;P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.</p><p><blockquote>当然，在过去3天里，当S&amp;P加速下滑时，这一切都崩溃了，并在周一的可怕溃败中达到高潮，当时收益率暴跌引发了人们对美国经济正直接陷入滞胀崩溃的恐慌。</blockquote></p><p> And yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"<b>don't buy this dip.</b>\" He explains why:</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着期货反弹，交易者明显表现出抓住几个月来最快下跌的刀的愿望，我们惊讶地发现，正确预测7月上半月市场上涨的约翰·弗洛德(John Flood)现在已经完全翻转了，并在隔夜发表的一份说明中写道“<b>不要买这个蘸酱。</b>”他解释了原因：</blockquote></p><p>   I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week).    <b>99% of S&amp;P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).</b>Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period.    Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions.  And here are the 10 key<i>bearish</i>developments Flood is monitoring:</p><p><blockquote>我是一个持续的逢低买入者，但这种波动感觉不同，我正在为本周走弱的磁带做好准备。负面的Covid头条新闻正在加速。发行龙头完全打开，这篇论文越来越难从我的座位上放置（在上周与发行相关的一些波涛汹涌的px行动之后）。<b>99%的S&amp;P 500公司将进入下周的回购封锁期，供应方面的量化流动仍然不对称（也就是CTA卖家将赢得这场拉锯战）。</b>上周的收益很好，但没有得到回报（银行）……本周和下周是收益期最繁忙的两周。随着FAAMG综合体背负着指数的重量，整体市场广度继续消散。对于零售界来说，7月并不是一个有趣的月份（潜在的零售出价正在减弱）。从1年的回顾来看，高频长度最近有了显著的增长，但从3年的基础上来看，净和毛都远高于第50百分位（这里还有更多的木头要砍）。在中美紧张局势加剧之际，机构界继续降低中国ADR后滴滴发展的风险。所有人都认为10年期国债收益率将在2021年首次远低于200日均线1.26。没有必要按下恐慌按钮，但我计划在接下来的几次会议中耐心购买门票。以下是10个关键<i>看跌</i>洪水正在监测的事态发展：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1)周末的Covid头条新闻是我在2021年见过的最负面的。以下是让我印象深刻的5个...</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>U.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC</li>  <li>The CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG</li>  <li>CDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT</li>  <li>First Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)</li>  <li>The UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times</li> </ul> <b>2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>上周美国感染人数激增超过60%，超过全球16%的增幅。FDA前局长斯科特·戈特利布(Scott Gottlieb)表示，Delta病例可能被低估。这位博士警告说，美国“大大低估”了COVID delta在国内的传播水平。CNBC</li><li>疾病预防控制中心警告称，随着该国接种率较低地区的病例、住院和死亡人数上升，将出现“未接种疫苗的大流行”。BBG</li><li>疾病预防控制中心表示，随着新冠疫情统计数据持续恶化，美国其他主要城市可能会效仿洛杉矶，重新实施口罩强制令。FT</li><li>就在东京奥运会预计开始前几天，第一批东京奥运会运动员的新冠病毒检测呈阳性（科科·高夫是退出奥运会的最引人注目的美国运动员）</li><li>英国表示，无论疫苗接种情况如何，来自法国的旅行者都需要隔离10天，这一声明“让假期陷入混乱”。伦敦时报</li></ul><b>2）这是一个纸党，这张纸越来越难放置。上周我们在美国对11笔注册交易进行了定价（名义价值30亿美元），本周我们已经在处理另外18笔交易（名义价值100亿美元）。这在七月底尤其值得注意。</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3)第二季度财报发布仅一周，但银行告诉我们要期待好消息，但不要指望这些好消息会得到回报。又名卖方的估计仍然太低，头寸仍然拥挤。自摩根大通上周二上午公布大型科技银行财报（基本上全面上涨）以来，银行指数已下跌355个基点。</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4）我们正处于企业回购封锁期，这将持续到2011年7月23日....</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aaf1e5d45694a097b50a91dbde1c820\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5）系统流是不对称的...（又名CTA是上下磁带中的卖家）....</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bba4d70220e9707ea2844810c1a10b2\" tg-width=\"866\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....</b></p><p><blockquote><b>6）市场广度继续恶化（上个月ATH为100）....</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39de9052680301024db46173d0dce29f\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>7)又名，如果没有FAAMG最近的出色价格走势，市场将会遇到一些麻烦……</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ae0c7eead73ad8dc2ecc63bcbd9e27e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT</b></p><p><blockquote><b>8)与中国的紧张局势不断升级，我们看到ADR的风险持续降低：白宫指责中国对微软的电子邮件系统进行大规模黑客攻击，并将组建北约成员国联盟谴责北京的网络活动。纽约时报</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....</b></p><p><blockquote><b>9)零售支持MTD一直在减弱....（GS高零售情绪篮子）....</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91d1bdeccdbb13bda1edf2982fd29b9c\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"737\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>1</b><b>0) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1</b><b>0）回顾1年，基本L/S定位有了显着提高....回顾3年，仍然很高....</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/588f67823e6fabf1df2586491f930477\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"105\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Says \"Don't Buy This Dip\" And Here's Why...<blockquote>高盛表示“不要逢低买入”，原因如下...</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-20 21:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...</p><p><blockquote>本月初，高盛交易员约翰·弗洛德（John Flood）正确地表示，我们正在进入一年中最好的两周季节性时期，本月的前18天传统上是市场最强劲的时期...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> ... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.</p><p><blockquote>...随后预测空头将不得不回补，在此期间，我们看到16个交易日中有13个交易日创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&amp;P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.</p><p><blockquote>当然，在过去3天里，当S&amp;P加速下滑时，这一切都崩溃了，并在周一的可怕溃败中达到高潮，当时收益率暴跌引发了人们对美国经济正直接陷入滞胀崩溃的恐慌。</blockquote></p><p> And yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"<b>don't buy this dip.</b>\" He explains why:</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着期货反弹，交易者明显表现出抓住几个月来最快下跌的刀的愿望，我们惊讶地发现，正确预测7月上半月市场上涨的约翰·弗洛德(John Flood)现在已经完全翻转了，并在隔夜发表的一份说明中写道“<b>不要买这个蘸酱。</b>”他解释了原因：</blockquote></p><p>   I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week).    <b>99% of S&amp;P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).</b>Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period.    Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions.  And here are the 10 key<i>bearish</i>developments Flood is monitoring:</p><p><blockquote>我是一个持续的逢低买入者，但这种波动感觉不同，我正在为本周走弱的磁带做好准备。负面的Covid头条新闻正在加速。发行龙头完全打开，这篇论文越来越难从我的座位上放置（在上周与发行相关的一些波涛汹涌的px行动之后）。<b>99%的S&amp;P 500公司将进入下周的回购封锁期，供应方面的量化流动仍然不对称（也就是CTA卖家将赢得这场拉锯战）。</b>上周的收益很好，但没有得到回报（银行）……本周和下周是收益期最繁忙的两周。随着FAAMG综合体背负着指数的重量，整体市场广度继续消散。对于零售界来说，7月并不是一个有趣的月份（潜在的零售出价正在减弱）。从1年的回顾来看，高频长度最近有了显著的增长，但从3年的基础上来看，净和毛都远高于第50百分位（这里还有更多的木头要砍）。在中美紧张局势加剧之际，机构界继续降低中国ADR后滴滴发展的风险。所有人都认为10年期国债收益率将在2021年首次远低于200日均线1.26。没有必要按下恐慌按钮，但我计划在接下来的几次会议中耐心购买门票。以下是10个关键<i>看跌</i>洪水正在监测的事态发展：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1)周末的Covid头条新闻是我在2021年见过的最负面的。以下是让我印象深刻的5个...</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>U.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC</li>  <li>The CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG</li>  <li>CDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT</li>  <li>First Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)</li>  <li>The UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times</li> </ul> <b>2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>上周美国感染人数激增超过60%，超过全球16%的增幅。FDA前局长斯科特·戈特利布(Scott Gottlieb)表示，Delta病例可能被低估。这位博士警告说，美国“大大低估”了COVID delta在国内的传播水平。CNBC</li><li>疾病预防控制中心警告称，随着该国接种率较低地区的病例、住院和死亡人数上升，将出现“未接种疫苗的大流行”。BBG</li><li>疾病预防控制中心表示，随着新冠疫情统计数据持续恶化，美国其他主要城市可能会效仿洛杉矶，重新实施口罩强制令。FT</li><li>就在东京奥运会预计开始前几天，第一批东京奥运会运动员的新冠病毒检测呈阳性（科科·高夫是退出奥运会的最引人注目的美国运动员）</li><li>英国表示，无论疫苗接种情况如何，来自法国的旅行者都需要隔离10天，这一声明“让假期陷入混乱”。伦敦时报</li></ul><b>2）这是一个纸党，这张纸越来越难放置。上周我们在美国对11笔注册交易进行了定价（名义价值30亿美元），本周我们已经在处理另外18笔交易（名义价值100亿美元）。这在七月底尤其值得注意。</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3)第二季度财报发布仅一周，但银行告诉我们要期待好消息，但不要指望这些好消息会得到回报。又名卖方的估计仍然太低，头寸仍然拥挤。自摩根大通上周二上午公布大型科技银行财报（基本上全面上涨）以来，银行指数已下跌355个基点。</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4）我们正处于企业回购封锁期，这将持续到2011年7月23日....</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aaf1e5d45694a097b50a91dbde1c820\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5）系统流是不对称的...（又名CTA是上下磁带中的卖家）....</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bba4d70220e9707ea2844810c1a10b2\" tg-width=\"866\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....</b></p><p><blockquote><b>6）市场广度继续恶化（上个月ATH为100）....</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39de9052680301024db46173d0dce29f\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>7)又名，如果没有FAAMG最近的出色价格走势，市场将会遇到一些麻烦……</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ae0c7eead73ad8dc2ecc63bcbd9e27e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT</b></p><p><blockquote><b>8)与中国的紧张局势不断升级，我们看到ADR的风险持续降低：白宫指责中国对微软的电子邮件系统进行大规模黑客攻击，并将组建北约成员国联盟谴责北京的网络活动。纽约时报</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....</b></p><p><blockquote><b>9)零售支持MTD一直在减弱....（GS高零售情绪篮子）....</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91d1bdeccdbb13bda1edf2982fd29b9c\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"737\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>1</b><b>0) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1</b><b>0）回顾1年，基本L/S定位有了显着提高....回顾3年，仍然很高....</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/588f67823e6fabf1df2586491f930477\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"105\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-says-dont-buy-dip-and-heres-why?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-says-dont-buy-dip-and-heres-why?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188133258","content_text":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...\n\n... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.\nOf course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.\nAnd yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:\n\n I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week).\n\n\n99% of S&P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period.\n\n\n Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions.\n\nAnd here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:\n1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...\n\nU.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC\nThe CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG\nCDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT\nFirst Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)\nThe UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times\n\n2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.\n3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.\n4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....\n5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....\n6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....\n7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...\n\n8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT\n9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....\n\n10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3066,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170230705,"gmtCreate":1626433891307,"gmtModify":1631890918752,"author":{"id":"3555822052484377","authorId":"3555822052484377","name":"Tongs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a38d6dcec089553bed2e9e999c283a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555822052484377","idStr":"3555822052484377"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Alright","listText":"Alright","text":"Alright","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/170230705","repostId":"1179986953","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2260,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":147297287,"gmtCreate":1626358560949,"gmtModify":1631890918754,"author":{"id":"3555822052484377","authorId":"3555822052484377","name":"Tongs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a38d6dcec089553bed2e9e999c283a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555822052484377","idStr":"3555822052484377"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Why so?&nbsp;","listText":"Why so?&nbsp;","text":"Why so?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/147297287","repostId":"2151269095","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2960,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145098983,"gmtCreate":1626181752642,"gmtModify":1631890918758,"author":{"id":"3555822052484377","authorId":"3555822052484377","name":"Tongs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a38d6dcec089553bed2e9e999c283a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555822052484377","idStr":"3555822052484377"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wooo","listText":"Wooo","text":"Wooo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145098983","repostId":"1192718809","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1192718809","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626181410,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1192718809?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-13 21:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Volkswagen's EV unit plans to double charging infrastructure by end of 2025<blockquote>大众汽车电动汽车部门计划到2025年底将充电基础设施增加一倍</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192718809","media":"Reuters","summary":"July 13 (Reuters) - Automaker Volkswagen's electric vehicle (EV) charging unit, Electrify America, s","content":"<p>July 13 (Reuters) - Automaker Volkswagen's electric vehicle (EV) charging unit, Electrify America, said on Tuesday it planned to more than double its charging infrastructure in the United States and Canada over the next four years.</p><p><blockquote>路透7月13日-汽车制造商大众汽车旗下电动汽车(EV)充电部门Electrify America周二表示，计划在未来四年内将其在美国和加拿大的充电基础设施增加一倍以上。</blockquote></p><p> The company said it expects to have over 1,800 fast charging stations and 10,000 individual chargers installed by the end of 2025.</p><p><blockquote>该公司表示，预计到2025年底将安装超过1,800个快速充电站和10,000个独立充电器。</blockquote></p><p> Charging infrastructure has attracted several sectors, including utilities, carmakers and big oil firms, all hoping to cash in on a rising demand for electricity in the wake of a global EV rollout.</p><p><blockquote>充电基础设施吸引了多个行业，包括公用事业、汽车制造商和大型石油公司，它们都希望从全球电动汽车推出后不断增长的电力需求中获利。</blockquote></p><p> Tuesday's announcement also comes after Reuters reported last week that Volkswagen was looking to sell a stake in Electrify America to gain access to outside funds for building infrastructure for battery-powered cars.</p><p><blockquote>周二宣布这一消息之前，路透社上周报道称，大众汽车正在寻求出售Electrify America的股份，以获得外部资金，用于建设电池驱动汽车的基础设施。</blockquote></p><p> Electrify America, which counts ChargePoint and Tesla's Supercharger among its competition, has 635 charging stations with around 2,850 fast-loading spots up and running, according to its website.</p><p><blockquote>Electrify America的网站称，其竞争对手包括ChargePoint和特斯拉的Supercharger，该公司拥有635个充电站和约2,850个快速充电点。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Volkswagen's EV unit plans to double charging infrastructure by end of 2025<blockquote>大众汽车电动汽车部门计划到2025年底将充电基础设施增加一倍</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nVolkswagen's EV unit plans to double charging infrastructure by end of 2025<blockquote>大众汽车电动汽车部门计划到2025年底将充电基础设施增加一倍</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-13 21:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>July 13 (Reuters) - Automaker Volkswagen's electric vehicle (EV) charging unit, Electrify America, said on Tuesday it planned to more than double its charging infrastructure in the United States and Canada over the next four years.</p><p><blockquote>路透7月13日-汽车制造商大众汽车旗下电动汽车(EV)充电部门Electrify America周二表示，计划在未来四年内将其在美国和加拿大的充电基础设施增加一倍以上。</blockquote></p><p> The company said it expects to have over 1,800 fast charging stations and 10,000 individual chargers installed by the end of 2025.</p><p><blockquote>该公司表示，预计到2025年底将安装超过1,800个快速充电站和10,000个独立充电器。</blockquote></p><p> Charging infrastructure has attracted several sectors, including utilities, carmakers and big oil firms, all hoping to cash in on a rising demand for electricity in the wake of a global EV rollout.</p><p><blockquote>充电基础设施吸引了多个行业，包括公用事业、汽车制造商和大型石油公司，它们都希望从全球电动汽车推出后不断增长的电力需求中获利。</blockquote></p><p> Tuesday's announcement also comes after Reuters reported last week that Volkswagen was looking to sell a stake in Electrify America to gain access to outside funds for building infrastructure for battery-powered cars.</p><p><blockquote>周二宣布这一消息之前，路透社上周报道称，大众汽车正在寻求出售Electrify America的股份，以获得外部资金，用于建设电池驱动汽车的基础设施。</blockquote></p><p> Electrify America, which counts ChargePoint and Tesla's Supercharger among its competition, has 635 charging stations with around 2,850 fast-loading spots up and running, according to its website.</p><p><blockquote>Electrify America的网站称，其竞争对手包括ChargePoint和特斯拉的Supercharger，该公司拥有635个充电站和约2,850个快速充电点。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/volkswagens-ev-unit-plans-double-125417092.html\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"VLKAY":"大众汽车"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/volkswagens-ev-unit-plans-double-125417092.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192718809","content_text":"July 13 (Reuters) - Automaker Volkswagen's electric vehicle (EV) charging unit, Electrify America, said on Tuesday it planned to more than double its charging infrastructure in the United States and Canada over the next four years.\nThe company said it expects to have over 1,800 fast charging stations and 10,000 individual chargers installed by the end of 2025.\nCharging infrastructure has attracted several sectors, including utilities, carmakers and big oil firms, all hoping to cash in on a rising demand for electricity in the wake of a global EV rollout.\nTuesday's announcement also comes after Reuters reported last week that Volkswagen was looking to sell a stake in Electrify America to gain access to outside funds for building infrastructure for battery-powered cars.\nElectrify America, which counts ChargePoint and Tesla's Supercharger among its competition, has 635 charging stations with around 2,850 fast-loading spots up and running, according to its website.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"VLKAY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3404,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146724808,"gmtCreate":1626100315004,"gmtModify":1631890918768,"author":{"id":"3555822052484377","authorId":"3555822052484377","name":"Tongs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a38d6dcec089553bed2e9e999c283a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555822052484377","idStr":"3555822052484377"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🤣 Don't know if should trust this article","listText":"🤣 Don't know if should trust this article","text":"🤣 Don't know if should trust this article","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146724808","repostId":"2150580297","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":930,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":157264229,"gmtCreate":1625584203061,"gmtModify":1631890918768,"author":{"id":"3555822052484377","authorId":"3555822052484377","name":"Tongs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a38d6dcec089553bed2e9e999c283a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555822052484377","idStr":"3555822052484377"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good job","listText":"Good job","text":"Good job","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/157264229","repostId":"2149936563","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":997,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158976061,"gmtCreate":1625126878053,"gmtModify":1631894010125,"author":{"id":"3555822052484377","authorId":"3555822052484377","name":"Tongs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a38d6dcec089553bed2e9e999c283a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555822052484377","idStr":"3555822052484377"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Weeee","listText":"Weeee","text":"Weeee","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/158976061","repostId":"1114101721","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114101721","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1625126532,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1114101721?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-01 16:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO delivered 8,083 vehicles in June 2021, increasing by 116.1% YOY<blockquote>蔚来2021年6月交付8083辆，同比增长116.1%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114101721","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"NIO delivered 21,896 vehicles in the three months ended June 2021, increasing by 111.9% year-over-year. Cumulative deliveries of the ES8, ES6 and EC6 as of June 30, 2021 reached 117,597. NIO Inc., a pioneer and a leading manufacturer of premium smart electric vehicles in China, today announced its June and second quarter 2021 delivery results.NIO delivered 8,083 vehicles in June 2021, a new monthly record representing a robust 116.1% year-over-year growth. The deliveries consisted of 1,498 ES8s,","content":"<p><ul>  <li><b><i>NIO delivered 8,083 vehicles in June 2021, increasing by 116.1% year-over-year</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>NIO delivered 21,896 vehicles in the three months ended June 2021, increasing by 111.9% year-over-year</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Cumulative deliveries of the ES8, ES6 and EC6 as of June 30, 2021 reached 117,597</i></b></li> </ul> NIO Inc., a pioneer and a leading manufacturer of premium smart electric vehicles in China, today announced its June and second quarter 2021 delivery results.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b><i>蔚来2021年6月交付8083辆，同比增长116.1%</i></b></li><li><b><i>蔚来在截至2021年6月的三个月内交付了21,896辆汽车，同比增长111.9%</i></b></li><li><b><i>ES8、ES6和EC6截至2021年6月30日的累计交付量达到117,597辆</i></b></li></ul>国内高端智能电动汽车的先行者和领先制造商蔚来今日公布了2021年6月及第二季度交付业绩。</blockquote></p><p> NIO delivered 8,083 vehicles in June 2021, a new monthly record representing a robust 116.1% year-over-year growth. The deliveries consisted of 1,498 ES8s, the Company’s six-seater or seven-seater flagship premium smart electric SUV, 3,755 ES6s, the Company’s five-seater high-performance premium smart electric SUV, and 2,830 EC6s, the Company’s five-seater premium smart electric coupe SUV. NIO delivered 21,896 vehicles in the three months ended June 2021, a new quarterly record representing a strong increase of 111.9% year-over-year. As of June 30, 2021, cumulative deliveries of the ES8, ES6 and EC6 reached 117,597 vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在2021年6月交付了8,083辆汽车，创下月度新纪录，同比强劲增长116.1%。交付量包括1,498辆ES8（该公司的六座或七座旗舰高级智能电动SUV）、3,755辆ES6（该公司的五座高性能高级智能电动SUV）和2,830辆EC6（该公司的五座高级智能电动轿跑SUV）。截至2021年6月的三个月内，蔚来交付了21,896辆汽车，创下新的季度纪录，同比强劲增长111.9%。截至2021年6月30日，ES8、ES6和EC6累计交付量达到117,597辆。</blockquote></p><p> NIO&nbsp;stock&nbsp;rose&nbsp;0.7%&nbsp;in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来股价在盘前交易中上涨0。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/649d5139ca369d18c052a809e36398a5\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"663\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO delivered 8,083 vehicles in June 2021, increasing by 116.1% YOY<blockquote>蔚来2021年6月交付8083辆，同比增长116.1%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO delivered 8,083 vehicles in June 2021, increasing by 116.1% YOY<blockquote>蔚来2021年6月交付8083辆，同比增长116.1%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-01 16:02</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><ul>  <li><b><i>NIO delivered 8,083 vehicles in June 2021, increasing by 116.1% year-over-year</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>NIO delivered 21,896 vehicles in the three months ended June 2021, increasing by 111.9% year-over-year</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Cumulative deliveries of the ES8, ES6 and EC6 as of June 30, 2021 reached 117,597</i></b></li> </ul> NIO Inc., a pioneer and a leading manufacturer of premium smart electric vehicles in China, today announced its June and second quarter 2021 delivery results.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b><i>蔚来2021年6月交付8083辆，同比增长116.1%</i></b></li><li><b><i>蔚来在截至2021年6月的三个月内交付了21,896辆汽车，同比增长111.9%</i></b></li><li><b><i>ES8、ES6和EC6截至2021年6月30日的累计交付量达到117,597辆</i></b></li></ul>国内高端智能电动汽车的先行者和领先制造商蔚来今日公布了2021年6月及第二季度交付业绩。</blockquote></p><p> NIO delivered 8,083 vehicles in June 2021, a new monthly record representing a robust 116.1% year-over-year growth. The deliveries consisted of 1,498 ES8s, the Company’s six-seater or seven-seater flagship premium smart electric SUV, 3,755 ES6s, the Company’s five-seater high-performance premium smart electric SUV, and 2,830 EC6s, the Company’s five-seater premium smart electric coupe SUV. NIO delivered 21,896 vehicles in the three months ended June 2021, a new quarterly record representing a strong increase of 111.9% year-over-year. As of June 30, 2021, cumulative deliveries of the ES8, ES6 and EC6 reached 117,597 vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在2021年6月交付了8,083辆汽车，创下月度新纪录，同比强劲增长116.1%。交付量包括1,498辆ES8（该公司的六座或七座旗舰高级智能电动SUV）、3,755辆ES6（该公司的五座高性能高级智能电动SUV）和2,830辆EC6（该公司的五座高级智能电动轿跑SUV）。截至2021年6月的三个月内，蔚来交付了21,896辆汽车，创下新的季度纪录，同比强劲增长111.9%。截至2021年6月30日，ES8、ES6和EC6累计交付量达到117,597辆。</blockquote></p><p> NIO&nbsp;stock&nbsp;rose&nbsp;0.7%&nbsp;in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来股价在盘前交易中上涨0。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/649d5139ca369d18c052a809e36398a5\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"663\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114101721","content_text":"NIO delivered 8,083 vehicles in June 2021, increasing by 116.1% year-over-year\nNIO delivered 21,896 vehicles in the three months ended June 2021, increasing by 111.9% year-over-year\nCumulative deliveries of the ES8, ES6 and EC6 as of June 30, 2021 reached 117,597\n\nNIO Inc., a pioneer and a leading manufacturer of premium smart electric vehicles in China, today announced its June and second quarter 2021 delivery results.\nNIO delivered 8,083 vehicles in June 2021, a new monthly record representing a robust 116.1% year-over-year growth. The deliveries consisted of 1,498 ES8s, the Company’s six-seater or seven-seater flagship premium smart electric SUV, 3,755 ES6s, the Company’s five-seater high-performance premium smart electric SUV, and 2,830 EC6s, the Company’s five-seater premium smart electric coupe SUV. NIO delivered 21,896 vehicles in the three months ended June 2021, a new quarterly record representing a strong increase of 111.9% year-over-year. As of June 30, 2021, cumulative deliveries of the ES8, ES6 and EC6 reached 117,597 vehicles.\nNIO stock rose 0.7% in premarket trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":711,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150633762,"gmtCreate":1624895394456,"gmtModify":1631894015955,"author":{"id":"3555822052484377","authorId":"3555822052484377","name":"Tongs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a38d6dcec089553bed2e9e999c283a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555822052484377","idStr":"3555822052484377"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Looks good","listText":"Looks good","text":"Looks 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pls..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150639722","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1052,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167237306,"gmtCreate":1624269625105,"gmtModify":1631894015983,"author":{"id":"3555822052484377","authorId":"3555822052484377","name":"Tongs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a38d6dcec089553bed2e9e999c283a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555822052484377","idStr":"3555822052484377"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167237306","repostId":"1172678753","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":922,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166873265,"gmtCreate":1624004113757,"gmtModify":1631894010138,"author":{"id":"3555822052484377","authorId":"3555822052484377","name":"Tongs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a38d6dcec089553bed2e9e999c283a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555822052484377","idStr":"3555822052484377"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sounds bad","listText":"Sounds bad","text":"Sounds bad","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166873265","repostId":"1142916683","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1142916683","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624003342,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142916683?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 16:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Orphazyme shares tumbled more than 60% in pre-market trading<blockquote>Orphazyme股价在盘前交易中暴跌超过60%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142916683","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Orphazyme shares tumbled more than 60% in pre-market trading.\nOrphazyme slashed its financial foreca","content":"<p>Orphazyme&nbsp;shares&nbsp;tumbled&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;60% in pre-market&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>Orphazyme股价在盘前交易中暴跌超过60%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b722b82c7d6ab2a6fcc7364eb2517b7f\" tg-width=\"1293\" tg-height=\"628\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Orphazyme slashed its financial forecasts on Friday after U.S. health regulators rejected its key drug candidate.</p><p><blockquote>在美国卫生监管机构拒绝其关键候选药物后，Orphazyme周五大幅下调了财务预测。</blockquote></p><p> Orphazyme said its application for FDA approval of arimoclomol, a treatment for genetic disorder Niemann-Pick disease type C, had not been successful.</p><p><blockquote>Orphazyme表示，其申请FDA批准arimoclomol（一种治疗遗传性疾病尼曼-皮克病C型的药物）的申请尚未成功。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, it predicted revenue for the year would be lower than previously expected and its operating loss significantly wider, forcing the company to cut costs.</p><p><blockquote>因此，该公司预计今年的收入将低于此前预期，运营亏损将大幅扩大，迫使该公司削减成本。</blockquote></p><p> \"Orphazyme has no money and no substantial projects ... Investors have put their money into a completely unrealistic scenario driven by 'meme tendencies',\" broker Nordnet wrote in a note to clients.</p><p><blockquote>经纪商Nordnet在给客户的一份报告中写道：“Orphazyme没有钱，也没有实质性的项目……投资者将资金投入到‘模因倾向’驱动的完全不切实际的场景中。”</blockquote></p><p> Orphazyme, which is listed in Copenhagen and New York, now expects an operating loss of 670-700 million crowns ($107-$112 million) in 2021, against a previous forecast for a loss of 100-150 million crowns.</p><p><blockquote>在哥本哈根和纽约上市的Orphazyme目前预计2021年的运营亏损为6.70-7亿克朗（107-1.12亿美元），而此前的预测为亏损100-1.5亿克朗。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Orphazyme shares tumbled more than 60% in pre-market trading<blockquote>Orphazyme股价在盘前交易中暴跌超过60%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOrphazyme shares tumbled more than 60% in pre-market trading<blockquote>Orphazyme股价在盘前交易中暴跌超过60%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-18 16:02</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Orphazyme&nbsp;shares&nbsp;tumbled&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;60% in pre-market&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>Orphazyme股价在盘前交易中暴跌超过60%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b722b82c7d6ab2a6fcc7364eb2517b7f\" tg-width=\"1293\" tg-height=\"628\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Orphazyme slashed its financial forecasts on Friday after U.S. health regulators rejected its key drug candidate.</p><p><blockquote>在美国卫生监管机构拒绝其关键候选药物后，Orphazyme周五大幅下调了财务预测。</blockquote></p><p> Orphazyme said its application for FDA approval of arimoclomol, a treatment for genetic disorder Niemann-Pick disease type C, had not been successful.</p><p><blockquote>Orphazyme表示，其申请FDA批准arimoclomol（一种治疗遗传性疾病尼曼-皮克病C型的药物）的申请尚未成功。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, it predicted revenue for the year would be lower than previously expected and its operating loss significantly wider, forcing the company to cut costs.</p><p><blockquote>因此，该公司预计今年的收入将低于此前预期，运营亏损将大幅扩大，迫使该公司削减成本。</blockquote></p><p> \"Orphazyme has no money and no substantial projects ... Investors have put their money into a completely unrealistic scenario driven by 'meme tendencies',\" broker Nordnet wrote in a note to clients.</p><p><blockquote>经纪商Nordnet在给客户的一份报告中写道：“Orphazyme没有钱，也没有实质性的项目……投资者将资金投入到‘模因倾向’驱动的完全不切实际的场景中。”</blockquote></p><p> Orphazyme, which is listed in Copenhagen and New York, now expects an operating loss of 670-700 million crowns ($107-$112 million) in 2021, against a previous forecast for a loss of 100-150 million crowns.</p><p><blockquote>在哥本哈根和纽约上市的Orphazyme目前预计2021年的运营亏损为6.70-7亿克朗（107-1.12亿美元），而此前的预测为亏损100-1.5亿克朗。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142916683","content_text":"Orphazyme shares tumbled more than 60% in pre-market trading.\nOrphazyme slashed its financial forecasts on Friday after U.S. health regulators rejected its key drug candidate.\nOrphazyme said its application for FDA approval of arimoclomol, a treatment for genetic disorder Niemann-Pick disease type C, had not been successful.\nAs a result, it predicted revenue for the year would be lower than previously expected and its operating loss significantly wider, forcing the company to cut costs.\n\"Orphazyme has no money and no substantial projects ... Investors have put their money into a completely unrealistic scenario driven by 'meme tendencies',\" broker Nordnet wrote in a note to clients.\nOrphazyme, which is listed in Copenhagen and New York, now expects an operating loss of 670-700 million crowns ($107-$112 million) in 2021, against a previous forecast for a loss of 100-150 million crowns.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ORPH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":666,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161037341,"gmtCreate":1623896057183,"gmtModify":1631894016193,"author":{"id":"3555822052484377","authorId":"3555822052484377","name":"Tongs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a38d6dcec089553bed2e9e999c283a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555822052484377","idStr":"3555822052484377"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Will btc rise once again?&nbsp;","listText":"Will btc rise once again?&nbsp;","text":"Will btc rise once again?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161037341","repostId":"2144130887","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":737,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160474054,"gmtCreate":1623805573678,"gmtModify":1631894015961,"author":{"id":"3555822052484377","authorId":"3555822052484377","name":"Tongs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a38d6dcec089553bed2e9e999c283a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555822052484377","idStr":"3555822052484377"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh no&nbsp;","listText":"Oh no&nbsp;","text":"Oh no","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160474054","repostId":"160530757","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":160530757,"gmtCreate":1623801417172,"gmtModify":1623807285622,"author":{"id":"3527667586584720","authorId":"3527667586584720","name":"小虎综合资讯","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667586584720","idStr":"3527667586584720"},"themes":[],"title":"昨夜今晨：发生了什么？欧盟封杀十大金融巨头，美油创两年半新高","htmlText":"摘要：美股全线收跌，道指跌0.27%；纳指跌0.71%；标普500指数跌0.2%；热门中概股周二收盘普跌；欧洲股市普遍收高；美油大涨1.8％创两年半新高；金价收盘再度下滑0.5％，录得三连跌；美联储会议重磅前瞻：料将开始讨论减码，2023年或首次加息；4月美国最大“债主”日本三个月里首度增持美债，中国持债两连降。 海外市场 1、美股全线收跌，道指跌近百点！标普500指数创新高后回落 美股三大指数周二收盘全线下跌，标普500一度创新高，投资者正密切关注美联储即将公布的政策声明，以及美国5月PPI和零售销售数据。截至收盘，道指跌0.27%；纳指跌0.71%；标普500指数跌0.2%。 知名科技股中<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a>跌0.64%；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">$Facebook(FB)$</a>跌0.01%；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$亚马逊(AMZN)$</a>跌0.02%；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$</a>跌0.59%；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">$谷歌(GOOG)$</a>跌0.25%；奈飞跌1.6%；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>跌2.97%。 2、热门中概股周二收盘普跌 热门中概股周二收盘普跌，新能源汽车股下跌。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">$网易(NTES)$</a>有道跌近6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BZ\">$BOSS直聘(BZ)$</a>","listText":"摘要：美股全线收跌，道指跌0.27%；纳指跌0.71%；标普500指数跌0.2%；热门中概股周二收盘普跌；欧洲股市普遍收高；美油大涨1.8％创两年半新高；金价收盘再度下滑0.5％，录得三连跌；美联储会议重磅前瞻：料将开始讨论减码，2023年或首次加息；4月美国最大“债主”日本三个月里首度增持美债，中国持债两连降。 海外市场 1、美股全线收跌，道指跌近百点！标普500指数创新高后回落 美股三大指数周二收盘全线下跌，标普500一度创新高，投资者正密切关注美联储即将公布的政策声明，以及美国5月PPI和零售销售数据。截至收盘，道指跌0.27%；纳指跌0.71%；标普500指数跌0.2%。 知名科技股中<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a>跌0.64%；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">$Facebook(FB)$</a>跌0.01%；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$亚马逊(AMZN)$</a>跌0.02%；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$</a>跌0.59%；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">$谷歌(GOOG)$</a>跌0.25%；奈飞跌1.6%；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>跌2.97%。 2、热门中概股周二收盘普跌 热门中概股周二收盘普跌，新能源汽车股下跌。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">$网易(NTES)$</a>有道跌近6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BZ\">$BOSS直聘(BZ)$</a>","text":"摘要：美股全线收跌，道指跌0.27%；纳指跌0.71%；标普500指数跌0.2%；热门中概股周二收盘普跌；欧洲股市普遍收高；美油大涨1.8％创两年半新高；金价收盘再度下滑0.5％，录得三连跌；美联储会议重磅前瞻：料将开始讨论减码，2023年或首次加息；4月美国最大“债主”日本三个月里首度增持美债，中国持债两连降。 海外市场 1、美股全线收跌，道指跌近百点！标普500指数创新高后回落 美股三大指数周二收盘全线下跌，标普500一度创新高，投资者正密切关注美联储即将公布的政策声明，以及美国5月PPI和零售销售数据。截至收盘，道指跌0.27%；纳指跌0.71%；标普500指数跌0.2%。 知名科技股中$苹果(AAPL)$跌0.64%；$Facebook(FB)$跌0.01%；$亚马逊(AMZN)$跌0.02%；$微软(MSFT)$跌0.59%；$谷歌(GOOG)$跌0.25%；奈飞跌1.6%；$特斯拉(TSLA)$跌2.97%。 2、热门中概股周二收盘普跌 热门中概股周二收盘普跌，新能源汽车股下跌。 $网易(NTES)$有道跌近6%，$BOSS直聘(BZ)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160530757","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":705,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184796899,"gmtCreate":1623723921511,"gmtModify":1631894016192,"author":{"id":"3555822052484377","authorId":"3555822052484377","name":"Tongs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a38d6dcec089553bed2e9e999c283a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555822052484377","idStr":"3555822052484377"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Looks good","listText":"Looks good","text":"Looks good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/184796899","repostId":"1167323938","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167323938","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623723810,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1167323938?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 10:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"My 3 Favorite Stocks Right Now<blockquote>我现在最喜欢的3只股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167323938","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"These companies make good long-term core holdings.\nStock investing starts with picking the right com","content":"<p>These companies make good long-term core holdings.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司是很好的长期核心持股。</blockquote></p><p> Stock investing&nbsp;starts with picking the right companies. Remember, finding the nextmeme stockbefore the price takes off and selling at the high point is virtually impossible without a time machine.</p><p><blockquote>股票投资从选择合适的公司开始。请记住，如果没有时间机器，在价格起飞之前找到下一只模因股票并在高点卖出几乎是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, I like buying shares in high-quality companies with strong market positions that have competitive advantages that aren't easily duplicated. Granted, this is easier said than done, but these companies fit the description.</p><p><blockquote>相反，我喜欢购买具有强大市场地位、具有不易复制的竞争优势的优质公司的股票。诚然，这说起来容易做起来难，但这些公司符合描述。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/effed739609f2c132bbfba134fe0ff19\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Amazon</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.亚马逊</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Amazon</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:AMZN)&nbsp;has become synonymous with e-commerce, but the company is much more than that. It has done this by sticking to its principles, which include focusing on the customer, innovating, and planning for the long term. You can see this through its popular Amazon Prime subscription service, which includes delivery charges, and hardware devices like Alexa and Kindle. There is also its fast-growing, higher-margin Amazon Web Services (AWS) business that provides cloud computing services.</p><p><blockquote><b>亚马逊</b>（纳斯达克：AMZN）已经成为电子商务的代名词，但该公司远不止于此。它通过坚持其原则做到了这一点，包括关注客户、创新和长期规划。你可以通过其广受欢迎的亚马逊Prime订阅服务（包括送货费）以及Alexa和Kindle等硬件设备看到这一点。还有其快速增长、利润更高的亚马逊网络服务（AWS）业务，提供云计算服务。</blockquote></p><p> Its presence is so dominant that Amazon completely changes an industry's dynamics when it decides to enter the fray. That's because it often provides cheap prices and fast delivery -- a compelling proposition. This happened when it pushed further into selling food and apparel, for instance. The company is also moving further into&nbsp;offering prescription drugs.</p><p><blockquote>它的存在如此占主导地位，以至于当亚马逊决定加入竞争时，它完全改变了一个行业的动态。这是因为它通常提供便宜的价格和快速的交货——这是一个令人信服的主张。例如，当它进一步进军食品和服装销售时，就会发生这种情况。该公司还进一步提供处方药。</blockquote></p><p> While its long-term focus means Amazon is willing to forgo short-term profits, the company is hugely profitable. Its operating profit grew from 2016's $4.2 billion to $22.9 billion last year. In the first quarter, the company's profit more than doubled from $4 billion to $8.8 billion.</p><p><blockquote>虽然长期关注意味着亚马逊愿意放弃短期利润，但该公司利润丰厚。其营业利润从2016年的42亿美元增长到去年的229亿美元。第一季度，该公司的利润从40亿美元增长到88亿美元，增长了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Costco</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.Costco</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Costco Wholesale</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:COST)&nbsp;has created quite a shopping experience. Known for its wide aisles, bulk items, and free samples, it has built a loyal and growing membership.</p><p><blockquote><b>好市多批发</b>（纳斯达克：COST）创造了相当不错的购物体验。它以其宽阔的过道、散装商品和免费样品而闻名，已经建立了忠诚且不断增长的会员。</blockquote></p><p> Costco's simple formula is hard to replicate: It focuses on high-quality merchandise and services, and sells them at low unit prices. Costco's paid members have grown from 47.6 million in 2016 to 58.1 million last year (the fiscal year ends on June 30). Meanwhile, its retention rate has hovered around 90%.</p><p><blockquote>Costco的简单公式很难复制：它专注于高质量的商品和服务，并以低单价出售。Costco的付费会员从2016年的4760万增长到去年的5810万（财年截至6月30日）。与此同时，其留存率一直徘徊在90%左右。</blockquote></p><p> With a focus on customer needs, it even has a generous return policy to help members have confidence in their purchases.</p><p><blockquote>专注于客户需求，它甚至有慷慨的退货政策，以帮助会员对他们的购买充满信心。</blockquote></p><p> Management also keeps an eye on improving results. It has had positive same-store sales (comps) for many years, including a 9% increase last year after excluding the effects of gasoline price changes and foreign currency exchange translation. Operating income grew from $3.7 billion to $5.4 billion over the last five years.</p><p><blockquote>管理层还关注改善结果。多年来，该公司的同店销售额(COMP)一直保持正增长，其中去年在排除汽油价格变化和外币兑换折算的影响后增长了9%。过去五年营业收入从37亿美元增长到54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Recent results also provide encouragement that management continues to execute. Comps increased by 15.2% for the first three quarters of 2021, and operating income grew by more than 26% to $4.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>最近的结果也鼓励管理层继续执行。2021年前三季度业绩增长15.2%，营业收入增长超过26%，达到44亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> While income investors can find higher yields than Costco's 0.8%, it does have a history of annually raising dividends. This includes increasing May's payment to $0.79 from the previous quarter's $0.70. But better still, the board of directors has declared large special dividends every few years. The most recent was a $10 payment last December.</p><p><blockquote>虽然收益投资者可以找到比Costco 0.8%更高的收益率，但它确实有每年提高股息的历史。这包括将5月份的付款从上一季度的0.70美元增加到0.79美元。但更好的是，董事会每隔几年就会宣布大笔特别股息。最近一次是去年12月支付的10美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Walmart</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.沃尔玛</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Walmart</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:WMT)&nbsp;has built itself into the world's largest retailer, serving more than 240 million customers every week. The company, which opened its first discount store nearly six decades ago, squeezes costs and passes these savings on to the customer. This allows Walmart to offer the lowest prices on its goods, making it difficult for competitors to keep up.</p><p><blockquote><b>沃尔玛</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：WMT）已成为全球最大的零售商，每周为超过2.4亿客户提供服务。该公司在近60年前开设了第一家折扣店，压缩成本并将这些节省下来的成本转嫁给顾客。这使得沃尔玛能够为其商品提供最低的价格，使竞争对手难以跟上。</blockquote></p><p> It isn't sitting still, either. It is keeping pace with online competitors, namely Amazon, by investing in technology to provide a seamless omnichannel experience to its shoppers. This includes launching the subscription service Walmart+, which provides delivery, gasoline discounts, and faster checkout at its stores.</p><p><blockquote>它也没有静止不动。它正在通过投资技术为购物者提供无缝的全渠道体验，与在线竞争对手亚马逊保持同步。这包括推出订阅服务Walmart+，该服务提供送货、汽油折扣和更快的商店结账速度。</blockquote></p><p> Last year, its adjusted revenue rose by 7.7% to $564.2 billion, driving operating income 9.3% higher to $23.4 billion. In the first quarter, revenue growth was about 2%, and management expects a low-single-digit percentage increase for the year. Its guidance calls for flattish operating income.</p><p><blockquote>去年，其调整后收入增长7.7%至5642亿美元，推动营业收入增长9.3%至234亿美元。第一季度收入增长约2%，管理层预计全年将实现低个位数百分比增长。其指导评级营业收入持平。</blockquote></p><p> While this outlook undoubtedly disappointed some investors, I'm not concerned. Management has its eyes on the long-term picture, and it is investing in technology to better serve its customers and remain a dominant retailer.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这一前景无疑让一些投资者感到失望，但我并不担心。管理层着眼于长远，正在投资技术，以更好地服务客户并保持零售商的主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> Walmart also offers a 1.6% yield, and it has also raised its quarterly dividend annually since initiating a payout in 1974. Already aDividend Aristocrat, it will become a Dividend King when the streak hits 50 years.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔玛还提供1.6%的收益率，自1974年开始派息以来，它还每年提高季度股息。它已经是股息贵族，当连胜达到50年时，它将成为股息之王。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> While these are three different companies in various stages, each is a strong addition to your portfolio. Adding them will give you a high-growth stock, a steady grower that tends to pay large dividends every few years, and a dominant retailer that continues to grow and regularly increase payments to shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这是处于不同阶段的三家不同公司，但每家公司都是您投资组合的有力补充。添加它们将为您提供一只高增长股票、一只往往每隔几年支付大量股息的稳定增长公司，以及一家持续增长并定期增加向股东支付的占主导地位的零售商。</blockquote></p><p> That's a winning combination that should make these core holdings a great addition to your portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个成功的组合，应该会使这些核心持股成为您投资组合的重要补充。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>My 3 Favorite Stocks Right Now<blockquote>我现在最喜欢的3只股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMy 3 Favorite Stocks Right Now<blockquote>我现在最喜欢的3只股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 10:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>These companies make good long-term core holdings.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司是很好的长期核心持股。</blockquote></p><p> Stock investing&nbsp;starts with picking the right companies. Remember, finding the nextmeme stockbefore the price takes off and selling at the high point is virtually impossible without a time machine.</p><p><blockquote>股票投资从选择合适的公司开始。请记住，如果没有时间机器，在价格起飞之前找到下一只模因股票并在高点卖出几乎是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, I like buying shares in high-quality companies with strong market positions that have competitive advantages that aren't easily duplicated. Granted, this is easier said than done, but these companies fit the description.</p><p><blockquote>相反，我喜欢购买具有强大市场地位、具有不易复制的竞争优势的优质公司的股票。诚然，这说起来容易做起来难，但这些公司符合描述。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/effed739609f2c132bbfba134fe0ff19\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Amazon</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.亚马逊</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Amazon</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:AMZN)&nbsp;has become synonymous with e-commerce, but the company is much more than that. It has done this by sticking to its principles, which include focusing on the customer, innovating, and planning for the long term. You can see this through its popular Amazon Prime subscription service, which includes delivery charges, and hardware devices like Alexa and Kindle. There is also its fast-growing, higher-margin Amazon Web Services (AWS) business that provides cloud computing services.</p><p><blockquote><b>亚马逊</b>（纳斯达克：AMZN）已经成为电子商务的代名词，但该公司远不止于此。它通过坚持其原则做到了这一点，包括关注客户、创新和长期规划。你可以通过其广受欢迎的亚马逊Prime订阅服务（包括送货费）以及Alexa和Kindle等硬件设备看到这一点。还有其快速增长、利润更高的亚马逊网络服务（AWS）业务，提供云计算服务。</blockquote></p><p> Its presence is so dominant that Amazon completely changes an industry's dynamics when it decides to enter the fray. That's because it often provides cheap prices and fast delivery -- a compelling proposition. This happened when it pushed further into selling food and apparel, for instance. The company is also moving further into&nbsp;offering prescription drugs.</p><p><blockquote>它的存在如此占主导地位，以至于当亚马逊决定加入竞争时，它完全改变了一个行业的动态。这是因为它通常提供便宜的价格和快速的交货——这是一个令人信服的主张。例如，当它进一步进军食品和服装销售时，就会发生这种情况。该公司还进一步提供处方药。</blockquote></p><p> While its long-term focus means Amazon is willing to forgo short-term profits, the company is hugely profitable. Its operating profit grew from 2016's $4.2 billion to $22.9 billion last year. In the first quarter, the company's profit more than doubled from $4 billion to $8.8 billion.</p><p><blockquote>虽然长期关注意味着亚马逊愿意放弃短期利润，但该公司利润丰厚。其营业利润从2016年的42亿美元增长到去年的229亿美元。第一季度，该公司的利润从40亿美元增长到88亿美元，增长了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Costco</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.Costco</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Costco Wholesale</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:COST)&nbsp;has created quite a shopping experience. Known for its wide aisles, bulk items, and free samples, it has built a loyal and growing membership.</p><p><blockquote><b>好市多批发</b>（纳斯达克：COST）创造了相当不错的购物体验。它以其宽阔的过道、散装商品和免费样品而闻名，已经建立了忠诚且不断增长的会员。</blockquote></p><p> Costco's simple formula is hard to replicate: It focuses on high-quality merchandise and services, and sells them at low unit prices. Costco's paid members have grown from 47.6 million in 2016 to 58.1 million last year (the fiscal year ends on June 30). Meanwhile, its retention rate has hovered around 90%.</p><p><blockquote>Costco的简单公式很难复制：它专注于高质量的商品和服务，并以低单价出售。Costco的付费会员从2016年的4760万增长到去年的5810万（财年截至6月30日）。与此同时，其留存率一直徘徊在90%左右。</blockquote></p><p> With a focus on customer needs, it even has a generous return policy to help members have confidence in their purchases.</p><p><blockquote>专注于客户需求，它甚至有慷慨的退货政策，以帮助会员对他们的购买充满信心。</blockquote></p><p> Management also keeps an eye on improving results. It has had positive same-store sales (comps) for many years, including a 9% increase last year after excluding the effects of gasoline price changes and foreign currency exchange translation. Operating income grew from $3.7 billion to $5.4 billion over the last five years.</p><p><blockquote>管理层还关注改善结果。多年来，该公司的同店销售额(COMP)一直保持正增长，其中去年在排除汽油价格变化和外币兑换折算的影响后增长了9%。过去五年营业收入从37亿美元增长到54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Recent results also provide encouragement that management continues to execute. Comps increased by 15.2% for the first three quarters of 2021, and operating income grew by more than 26% to $4.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>最近的结果也鼓励管理层继续执行。2021年前三季度业绩增长15.2%，营业收入增长超过26%，达到44亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> While income investors can find higher yields than Costco's 0.8%, it does have a history of annually raising dividends. This includes increasing May's payment to $0.79 from the previous quarter's $0.70. But better still, the board of directors has declared large special dividends every few years. The most recent was a $10 payment last December.</p><p><blockquote>虽然收益投资者可以找到比Costco 0.8%更高的收益率，但它确实有每年提高股息的历史。这包括将5月份的付款从上一季度的0.70美元增加到0.79美元。但更好的是，董事会每隔几年就会宣布大笔特别股息。最近一次是去年12月支付的10美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Walmart</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.沃尔玛</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Walmart</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:WMT)&nbsp;has built itself into the world's largest retailer, serving more than 240 million customers every week. The company, which opened its first discount store nearly six decades ago, squeezes costs and passes these savings on to the customer. This allows Walmart to offer the lowest prices on its goods, making it difficult for competitors to keep up.</p><p><blockquote><b>沃尔玛</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：WMT）已成为全球最大的零售商，每周为超过2.4亿客户提供服务。该公司在近60年前开设了第一家折扣店，压缩成本并将这些节省下来的成本转嫁给顾客。这使得沃尔玛能够为其商品提供最低的价格，使竞争对手难以跟上。</blockquote></p><p> It isn't sitting still, either. It is keeping pace with online competitors, namely Amazon, by investing in technology to provide a seamless omnichannel experience to its shoppers. This includes launching the subscription service Walmart+, which provides delivery, gasoline discounts, and faster checkout at its stores.</p><p><blockquote>它也没有静止不动。它正在通过投资技术为购物者提供无缝的全渠道体验，与在线竞争对手亚马逊保持同步。这包括推出订阅服务Walmart+，该服务提供送货、汽油折扣和更快的商店结账速度。</blockquote></p><p> Last year, its adjusted revenue rose by 7.7% to $564.2 billion, driving operating income 9.3% higher to $23.4 billion. In the first quarter, revenue growth was about 2%, and management expects a low-single-digit percentage increase for the year. Its guidance calls for flattish operating income.</p><p><blockquote>去年，其调整后收入增长7.7%至5642亿美元，推动营业收入增长9.3%至234亿美元。第一季度收入增长约2%，管理层预计全年将实现低个位数百分比增长。其指导评级营业收入持平。</blockquote></p><p> While this outlook undoubtedly disappointed some investors, I'm not concerned. Management has its eyes on the long-term picture, and it is investing in technology to better serve its customers and remain a dominant retailer.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这一前景无疑让一些投资者感到失望，但我并不担心。管理层着眼于长远，正在投资技术，以更好地服务客户并保持零售商的主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> Walmart also offers a 1.6% yield, and it has also raised its quarterly dividend annually since initiating a payout in 1974. Already aDividend Aristocrat, it will become a Dividend King when the streak hits 50 years.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔玛还提供1.6%的收益率，自1974年开始派息以来，它还每年提高季度股息。它已经是股息贵族，当连胜达到50年时，它将成为股息之王。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> While these are three different companies in various stages, each is a strong addition to your portfolio. Adding them will give you a high-growth stock, a steady grower that tends to pay large dividends every few years, and a dominant retailer that continues to grow and regularly increase payments to shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这是处于不同阶段的三家不同公司，但每家公司都是您投资组合的有力补充。添加它们将为您提供一只高增长股票、一只往往每隔几年支付大量股息的稳定增长公司，以及一家持续增长并定期增加向股东支付的占主导地位的零售商。</blockquote></p><p> That's a winning combination that should make these core holdings a great addition to your portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个成功的组合，应该会使这些核心持股成为您投资组合的重要补充。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/14/my-3-favorite-stocks-right-now/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊","WMT":"沃尔玛","COST":"好市多"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/14/my-3-favorite-stocks-right-now/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167323938","content_text":"These companies make good long-term core holdings.\nStock investing starts with picking the right companies. Remember, finding the nextmeme stockbefore the price takes off and selling at the high point is virtually impossible without a time machine.\nInstead, I like buying shares in high-quality companies with strong market positions that have competitive advantages that aren't easily duplicated. Granted, this is easier said than done, but these companies fit the description.\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\n1. Amazon\nAmazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) has become synonymous with e-commerce, but the company is much more than that. It has done this by sticking to its principles, which include focusing on the customer, innovating, and planning for the long term. You can see this through its popular Amazon Prime subscription service, which includes delivery charges, and hardware devices like Alexa and Kindle. There is also its fast-growing, higher-margin Amazon Web Services (AWS) business that provides cloud computing services.\nIts presence is so dominant that Amazon completely changes an industry's dynamics when it decides to enter the fray. That's because it often provides cheap prices and fast delivery -- a compelling proposition. This happened when it pushed further into selling food and apparel, for instance. The company is also moving further into offering prescription drugs.\nWhile its long-term focus means Amazon is willing to forgo short-term profits, the company is hugely profitable. Its operating profit grew from 2016's $4.2 billion to $22.9 billion last year. In the first quarter, the company's profit more than doubled from $4 billion to $8.8 billion.\n2. Costco\nCostco Wholesale (NASDAQ:COST) has created quite a shopping experience. Known for its wide aisles, bulk items, and free samples, it has built a loyal and growing membership.\nCostco's simple formula is hard to replicate: It focuses on high-quality merchandise and services, and sells them at low unit prices. Costco's paid members have grown from 47.6 million in 2016 to 58.1 million last year (the fiscal year ends on June 30). Meanwhile, its retention rate has hovered around 90%.\nWith a focus on customer needs, it even has a generous return policy to help members have confidence in their purchases.\nManagement also keeps an eye on improving results. It has had positive same-store sales (comps) for many years, including a 9% increase last year after excluding the effects of gasoline price changes and foreign currency exchange translation. Operating income grew from $3.7 billion to $5.4 billion over the last five years.\nRecent results also provide encouragement that management continues to execute. Comps increased by 15.2% for the first three quarters of 2021, and operating income grew by more than 26% to $4.4 billion.\nWhile income investors can find higher yields than Costco's 0.8%, it does have a history of annually raising dividends. This includes increasing May's payment to $0.79 from the previous quarter's $0.70. But better still, the board of directors has declared large special dividends every few years. The most recent was a $10 payment last December.\n3. Walmart\nWalmart (NYSE:WMT) has built itself into the world's largest retailer, serving more than 240 million customers every week. The company, which opened its first discount store nearly six decades ago, squeezes costs and passes these savings on to the customer. This allows Walmart to offer the lowest prices on its goods, making it difficult for competitors to keep up.\nIt isn't sitting still, either. It is keeping pace with online competitors, namely Amazon, by investing in technology to provide a seamless omnichannel experience to its shoppers. This includes launching the subscription service Walmart+, which provides delivery, gasoline discounts, and faster checkout at its stores.\nLast year, its adjusted revenue rose by 7.7% to $564.2 billion, driving operating income 9.3% higher to $23.4 billion. In the first quarter, revenue growth was about 2%, and management expects a low-single-digit percentage increase for the year. Its guidance calls for flattish operating income.\nWhile this outlook undoubtedly disappointed some investors, I'm not concerned. Management has its eyes on the long-term picture, and it is investing in technology to better serve its customers and remain a dominant retailer.\nWalmart also offers a 1.6% yield, and it has also raised its quarterly dividend annually since initiating a payout in 1974. Already aDividend Aristocrat, it will become a Dividend King when the streak hits 50 years.\nWhile these are three different companies in various stages, each is a strong addition to your portfolio. Adding them will give you a high-growth stock, a steady grower that tends to pay large dividends every few years, and a dominant retailer that continues to grow and regularly increase payments to shareholders.\nThat's a winning combination that should make these core holdings a great addition to your portfolio.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"COST":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"WMT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":573,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":185553577,"gmtCreate":1623661960999,"gmtModify":1631885240495,"author":{"id":"3555822052484377","authorId":"3555822052484377","name":"Tongs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a38d6dcec089553bed2e9e999c283a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555822052484377","authorIdStr":"3555822052484377"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TRCH\">$Torchlight Energy Resources(TRCH)$</a>&nbsp;for ppl in sg, will we 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trch?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185553577","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4201,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":139877742,"gmtCreate":1621609633686,"gmtModify":1634187655626,"author":{"id":"3555822052484377","authorId":"3555822052484377","name":"Tongs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a38d6dcec089553bed2e9e999c283a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555822052484377","authorIdStr":"3555822052484377"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gogo!!&nbsp;","listText":"Gogo!!&nbsp;","text":"Gogo!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/139877742","repostId":"2137909294","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":370,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146724808,"gmtCreate":1626100315004,"gmtModify":1631890918768,"author":{"id":"3555822052484377","authorId":"3555822052484377","name":"Tongs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a38d6dcec089553bed2e9e999c283a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555822052484377","authorIdStr":"3555822052484377"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🤣 Don't know if should trust this article","listText":"🤣 Don't know if should trust this article","text":"🤣 Don't know if should trust this article","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146724808","repostId":"2150580297","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":930,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":349435947,"gmtCreate":1617631247089,"gmtModify":1634297440267,"author":{"id":"3555822052484377","authorId":"3555822052484377","name":"Tongs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a38d6dcec089553bed2e9e999c283a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555822052484377","authorIdStr":"3555822052484377"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow 👍","listText":"Wow 👍","text":"Wow 👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/349435947","repostId":"1178747724","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":712,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170230705,"gmtCreate":1626433891307,"gmtModify":1631890918752,"author":{"id":"3555822052484377","authorId":"3555822052484377","name":"Tongs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a38d6dcec089553bed2e9e999c283a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555822052484377","authorIdStr":"3555822052484377"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Alright","listText":"Alright","text":"Alright","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/170230705","repostId":"1179986953","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2260,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":100621151,"gmtCreate":1619610775473,"gmtModify":1634211368541,"author":{"id":"3555822052484377","authorId":"3555822052484377","name":"Tongs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a38d6dcec089553bed2e9e999c283a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555822052484377","authorIdStr":"3555822052484377"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment pls","listText":"Like and comment pls","text":"Like and comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/100621151","repostId":"1179396069","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179396069","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619573853,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1179396069?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-28 09:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Could Blow the Top Off Earnings—Again. What That Would Mean for the Stock.<blockquote>苹果的盈利可能会再次飙升。这对股票意味着什么。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179396069","media":"Barrons","summary":"Apple has its work cut out for it trying to surpass 2020’s blowout results. The thing is, the tech g","content":"<p>Apple has its work cut out for it trying to surpass 2020’s blowout results. The thing is, the tech giant just might be able to pull it off.</p><p><blockquote>苹果要想超越2020年的井喷业绩，还有很多工作要做。问题是，这家科技巨头也许能够成功。</blockquote></p><p> The buzz around Apple last year was off the charts, even for what is the buzziest of technology companies. Anticipation of the fall launch of the company’s first 5G phones, surging demand for both Macs and iPads as the pandemic rolled on, and strength in both wearables and services fed off each other. The pieces all came together in the December quarter, when Apple (ticker: AAPL) posted&nbsp;its biggest quarter ever. Sales soared 21% to $111.4 billion, more than $8 billion over the Street consensus. Every product category—iPhone, iPad, Macs, wearables, and services—notched double-digit growth. Apple stock finished the year up 81%, adding nearly $1 trillion to its market cap.</p><p><blockquote>去年围绕苹果的热度超出了图表，即使是对于最热门的科技公司来说也是如此。对该公司首款5G手机将于秋季推出的预期，随着疫情的发展，对Mac和iPad的需求激增，以及可穿戴设备和服务的实力相互促进。所有这些因素都在12月季度集中在一起，当时苹果（股票代码：AAPL）公布了有史以来最大的季度业绩。销售额飙升21%，达到1114亿美元，比华尔街普遍预期高出80亿美元。每个产品类别——iPhone、iPad、Mac、可穿戴设备和服务——都实现了两位数的增长。苹果股价全年上涨81%，市值增加近1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> That’s a tough act to follow, particularly with the March quarter, which always slows from the holiday-boosted December quarter. But Apple could pull off the quintuple double again when its results come out after the bell Wednesday. The Street certainly thinks so, even if the market, which has pushed Apple shares up less than 2% in 2021, has been more cautious. Consensus estimates call for double-digit increases from last year across the board: iPhones sales up 43%, to $41.4 billion; iPad sales up 29%, to $5.6 billion; Mac sales of $6.8 billion, up 27%; wearables sales (mostly Apple Watch and AirPods) of $7.4 billion, up 18%; and a 16% bump in services, to $15.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个很难遵循的行为，尤其是在3月份季度，该季度总是比假期提振的12月份季度放缓。但当周三盘后公布结果时，苹果可能会再次实现五倍的增长。华尔街当然是这么认为的，尽管2021年推动苹果股价上涨不到2%的市场更加谨慎。市场普遍预计看涨期权将比去年全面实现两位数增长：iPhone销售额增长43%，达到414亿美元；iPad销售额增长29%，达到56亿美元；Mac销售额68亿美元，增长27%；可穿戴设备销售额（主要是苹果手表和AirPods）为74亿美元，增长18%；服务业增长16%，达到155亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, the Street consensus expects sales of $77 billion, up 32% from a year ago, with profits of 98 cents a share. That would be the fastest top-line growth rate for any Apple quarter since March 2012, when revenues were about half what they are now. And most bullish Apple analysts seem to think their own estimates are too low—a print at $77 billion would likely trigger a selloff in the stock.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，华尔街普遍预计销售额为770亿美元，比去年同期增长32%，每股利润为98美分。这将是苹果自2012年3月以来最快的营收增长率，当时的收入约为现在的一半。大多数看涨的苹果分析师似乎认为他们自己的估计太低了——770亿美元的股价可能会引发该股的抛售。</blockquote></p><p> Apple is also&nbsp;expected to provide an update on its capital-allocation strategy. A year ago,the company announced a 6% dividend increase, and boosted its stock repurchase plan by $50 billion. Apple has said repeatedly that it is pushing to get to a cash neutral position, but its remarkably big cash flow has slowed progress toward that goal.</p><p><blockquote>预计苹果还将提供其资本配置策略的最新信息。一年前，该公司宣布将股息增加6%，并将股票回购计划增加500亿美元。苹果一再表示，它正在努力实现现金中性头寸，但其庞大的现金流减缓了实现这一目标的进展。</blockquote></p><p> As always, the quarter is about more than just earnings.</p><p><blockquote>与往常一样，本季度不仅仅是盈利。</blockquote></p><p> For one, the Street will be looking for signs that the sales surge for Macs and iPads is sustainable—and that the company is keeping up with demand despite widespread chip and display shortages. Some investors worry that the spike in PC demand could ebb as more people return to schools and offices. They’ll be looking for company guidance on that point.</p><p><blockquote>其一，华尔街将寻找Mac和iPad销量激增可持续的迹象，以及尽管芯片和显示屏普遍短缺，但该公司仍能满足需求的迹象。一些投资者担心，随着越来越多的人返回学校和办公室，个人电脑需求的激增可能会消退。他们将在这一点上寻求公司的指导。</blockquote></p><p> Another is the sustainability of the resurgence in iPhone growth. There were high hopes among bulls that the iPhone 12 would drive a “supercycle” with an accelerated replacement cycle. Several analysts have noted that a clear consumer preference for the high end of the iPhone 12 line is driving up average selling prices, which should support a strong revenue quarter for the segment.</p><p><blockquote>另一个是iPhone增长复苏的可持续性。多头曾寄予厚望，认为iPhone 12将推动换机周期加速的“超级周期”。几位分析师指出，消费者对iPhone 12系列高端产品的明显偏好正在推高平均售价，这应该会支持该细分市场强劲的收入季度。</blockquote></p><p> “Given the later-than-seasonal launch of new iPhones in the fall of 2020, we believe iPhone demand will experience more favorable year-over-year comparisons this March quarter compared to past years,” writes Monness Crespi Hardt’s Brian White, who sees 47% iPhone revenue growth during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>Monness Crespi Hardt的布莱恩·怀特(Brian White)写道：“鉴于2020年秋季新款iPhone的发布时间晚于季节性，我们相信，与过去几年相比，今年3月季度的iPhone需求将经历更有利的同比比较。”预计本季度iPhone收入将增长47%。</blockquote></p><p> And if Apple pulls it all together? Apple could crush Street estimates, writes Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty, who has an Overweight rating and a $158 price target on the stock, up 17% from Monday’s close of $134.72. She sees the top line above $80 billion, with all segments growing at least 19% year over year. She is especially bullish on Mac and iPad sales, with estimates far above consensus—53% for Macs and 52% for iPads. She also expects Apple to increase its dividend by 10% and expand its stock repurchase program by $60 billion.</p><p><blockquote>如果苹果把这一切都拼凑起来呢？摩根士丹利分析师凯蒂·休伯蒂(Katy Huberty)写道，苹果可能会超出华尔街的预期，她对该股给予跑赢大盘评级，目标价为158美元，较周一收盘价134.72美元上涨17%。她预计营收将超过800亿美元，所有细分市场同比至少增长19%。她尤其看好Mac和iPad的销量，预期远高于市场普遍预期——Mac销量为53%，iPad销量为52%。她还预计苹果将股息提高10%，并将股票回购计划扩大600亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> That would certainly qualify as a job well done.</p><p><blockquote>这当然是一项出色的工作。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Could Blow the Top Off Earnings—Again. What That Would Mean for the Stock.<blockquote>苹果的盈利可能会再次飙升。这对股票意味着什么。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Could Blow the Top Off Earnings—Again. What That Would Mean for the Stock.<blockquote>苹果的盈利可能会再次飙升。这对股票意味着什么。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-28 09:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple has its work cut out for it trying to surpass 2020’s blowout results. The thing is, the tech giant just might be able to pull it off.</p><p><blockquote>苹果要想超越2020年的井喷业绩，还有很多工作要做。问题是，这家科技巨头也许能够成功。</blockquote></p><p> The buzz around Apple last year was off the charts, even for what is the buzziest of technology companies. Anticipation of the fall launch of the company’s first 5G phones, surging demand for both Macs and iPads as the pandemic rolled on, and strength in both wearables and services fed off each other. The pieces all came together in the December quarter, when Apple (ticker: AAPL) posted&nbsp;its biggest quarter ever. Sales soared 21% to $111.4 billion, more than $8 billion over the Street consensus. Every product category—iPhone, iPad, Macs, wearables, and services—notched double-digit growth. Apple stock finished the year up 81%, adding nearly $1 trillion to its market cap.</p><p><blockquote>去年围绕苹果的热度超出了图表，即使是对于最热门的科技公司来说也是如此。对该公司首款5G手机将于秋季推出的预期，随着疫情的发展，对Mac和iPad的需求激增，以及可穿戴设备和服务的实力相互促进。所有这些因素都在12月季度集中在一起，当时苹果（股票代码：AAPL）公布了有史以来最大的季度业绩。销售额飙升21%，达到1114亿美元，比华尔街普遍预期高出80亿美元。每个产品类别——iPhone、iPad、Mac、可穿戴设备和服务——都实现了两位数的增长。苹果股价全年上涨81%，市值增加近1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> That’s a tough act to follow, particularly with the March quarter, which always slows from the holiday-boosted December quarter. But Apple could pull off the quintuple double again when its results come out after the bell Wednesday. The Street certainly thinks so, even if the market, which has pushed Apple shares up less than 2% in 2021, has been more cautious. Consensus estimates call for double-digit increases from last year across the board: iPhones sales up 43%, to $41.4 billion; iPad sales up 29%, to $5.6 billion; Mac sales of $6.8 billion, up 27%; wearables sales (mostly Apple Watch and AirPods) of $7.4 billion, up 18%; and a 16% bump in services, to $15.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个很难遵循的行为，尤其是在3月份季度，该季度总是比假期提振的12月份季度放缓。但当周三盘后公布结果时，苹果可能会再次实现五倍的增长。华尔街当然是这么认为的，尽管2021年推动苹果股价上涨不到2%的市场更加谨慎。市场普遍预计看涨期权将比去年全面实现两位数增长：iPhone销售额增长43%，达到414亿美元；iPad销售额增长29%，达到56亿美元；Mac销售额68亿美元，增长27%；可穿戴设备销售额（主要是苹果手表和AirPods）为74亿美元，增长18%；服务业增长16%，达到155亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, the Street consensus expects sales of $77 billion, up 32% from a year ago, with profits of 98 cents a share. That would be the fastest top-line growth rate for any Apple quarter since March 2012, when revenues were about half what they are now. And most bullish Apple analysts seem to think their own estimates are too low—a print at $77 billion would likely trigger a selloff in the stock.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，华尔街普遍预计销售额为770亿美元，比去年同期增长32%，每股利润为98美分。这将是苹果自2012年3月以来最快的营收增长率，当时的收入约为现在的一半。大多数看涨的苹果分析师似乎认为他们自己的估计太低了——770亿美元的股价可能会引发该股的抛售。</blockquote></p><p> Apple is also&nbsp;expected to provide an update on its capital-allocation strategy. A year ago,the company announced a 6% dividend increase, and boosted its stock repurchase plan by $50 billion. Apple has said repeatedly that it is pushing to get to a cash neutral position, but its remarkably big cash flow has slowed progress toward that goal.</p><p><blockquote>预计苹果还将提供其资本配置策略的最新信息。一年前，该公司宣布将股息增加6%，并将股票回购计划增加500亿美元。苹果一再表示，它正在努力实现现金中性头寸，但其庞大的现金流减缓了实现这一目标的进展。</blockquote></p><p> As always, the quarter is about more than just earnings.</p><p><blockquote>与往常一样，本季度不仅仅是盈利。</blockquote></p><p> For one, the Street will be looking for signs that the sales surge for Macs and iPads is sustainable—and that the company is keeping up with demand despite widespread chip and display shortages. Some investors worry that the spike in PC demand could ebb as more people return to schools and offices. They’ll be looking for company guidance on that point.</p><p><blockquote>其一，华尔街将寻找Mac和iPad销量激增可持续的迹象，以及尽管芯片和显示屏普遍短缺，但该公司仍能满足需求的迹象。一些投资者担心，随着越来越多的人返回学校和办公室，个人电脑需求的激增可能会消退。他们将在这一点上寻求公司的指导。</blockquote></p><p> Another is the sustainability of the resurgence in iPhone growth. There were high hopes among bulls that the iPhone 12 would drive a “supercycle” with an accelerated replacement cycle. Several analysts have noted that a clear consumer preference for the high end of the iPhone 12 line is driving up average selling prices, which should support a strong revenue quarter for the segment.</p><p><blockquote>另一个是iPhone增长复苏的可持续性。多头曾寄予厚望，认为iPhone 12将推动换机周期加速的“超级周期”。几位分析师指出，消费者对iPhone 12系列高端产品的明显偏好正在推高平均售价，这应该会支持该细分市场强劲的收入季度。</blockquote></p><p> “Given the later-than-seasonal launch of new iPhones in the fall of 2020, we believe iPhone demand will experience more favorable year-over-year comparisons this March quarter compared to past years,” writes Monness Crespi Hardt’s Brian White, who sees 47% iPhone revenue growth during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>Monness Crespi Hardt的布莱恩·怀特(Brian White)写道：“鉴于2020年秋季新款iPhone的发布时间晚于季节性，我们相信，与过去几年相比，今年3月季度的iPhone需求将经历更有利的同比比较。”预计本季度iPhone收入将增长47%。</blockquote></p><p> And if Apple pulls it all together? Apple could crush Street estimates, writes Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty, who has an Overweight rating and a $158 price target on the stock, up 17% from Monday’s close of $134.72. She sees the top line above $80 billion, with all segments growing at least 19% year over year. She is especially bullish on Mac and iPad sales, with estimates far above consensus—53% for Macs and 52% for iPads. She also expects Apple to increase its dividend by 10% and expand its stock repurchase program by $60 billion.</p><p><blockquote>如果苹果把这一切都拼凑起来呢？摩根士丹利分析师凯蒂·休伯蒂(Katy Huberty)写道，苹果可能会超出华尔街的预期，她对该股给予跑赢大盘评级，目标价为158美元，较周一收盘价134.72美元上涨17%。她预计营收将超过800亿美元，所有细分市场同比至少增长19%。她尤其看好Mac和iPad的销量，预期远高于市场普遍预期——Mac销量为53%，iPad销量为52%。她还预计苹果将股息提高10%，并将股票回购计划扩大600亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> That would certainly qualify as a job well done.</p><p><blockquote>这当然是一项出色的工作。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-could-blow-the-top-off-earningsagain-what-that-would-mean-for-the-stock-51619495288?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_1_2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-could-blow-the-top-off-earningsagain-what-that-would-mean-for-the-stock-51619495288?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_1_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179396069","content_text":"Apple has its work cut out for it trying to surpass 2020’s blowout results. The thing is, the tech giant just might be able to pull it off.\nThe buzz around Apple last year was off the charts, even for what is the buzziest of technology companies. Anticipation of the fall launch of the company’s first 5G phones, surging demand for both Macs and iPads as the pandemic rolled on, and strength in both wearables and services fed off each other. The pieces all came together in the December quarter, when Apple (ticker: AAPL) posted its biggest quarter ever. Sales soared 21% to $111.4 billion, more than $8 billion over the Street consensus. Every product category—iPhone, iPad, Macs, wearables, and services—notched double-digit growth. Apple stock finished the year up 81%, adding nearly $1 trillion to its market cap.\nThat’s a tough act to follow, particularly with the March quarter, which always slows from the holiday-boosted December quarter. But Apple could pull off the quintuple double again when its results come out after the bell Wednesday. The Street certainly thinks so, even if the market, which has pushed Apple shares up less than 2% in 2021, has been more cautious. Consensus estimates call for double-digit increases from last year across the board: iPhones sales up 43%, to $41.4 billion; iPad sales up 29%, to $5.6 billion; Mac sales of $6.8 billion, up 27%; wearables sales (mostly Apple Watch and AirPods) of $7.4 billion, up 18%; and a 16% bump in services, to $15.5 billion.\nOverall, the Street consensus expects sales of $77 billion, up 32% from a year ago, with profits of 98 cents a share. That would be the fastest top-line growth rate for any Apple quarter since March 2012, when revenues were about half what they are now. And most bullish Apple analysts seem to think their own estimates are too low—a print at $77 billion would likely trigger a selloff in the stock.\nApple is also expected to provide an update on its capital-allocation strategy. A year ago,the company announced a 6% dividend increase, and boosted its stock repurchase plan by $50 billion. Apple has said repeatedly that it is pushing to get to a cash neutral position, but its remarkably big cash flow has slowed progress toward that goal.\nAs always, the quarter is about more than just earnings.\nFor one, the Street will be looking for signs that the sales surge for Macs and iPads is sustainable—and that the company is keeping up with demand despite widespread chip and display shortages. Some investors worry that the spike in PC demand could ebb as more people return to schools and offices. They’ll be looking for company guidance on that point.\nAnother is the sustainability of the resurgence in iPhone growth. There were high hopes among bulls that the iPhone 12 would drive a “supercycle” with an accelerated replacement cycle. Several analysts have noted that a clear consumer preference for the high end of the iPhone 12 line is driving up average selling prices, which should support a strong revenue quarter for the segment.\n“Given the later-than-seasonal launch of new iPhones in the fall of 2020, we believe iPhone demand will experience more favorable year-over-year comparisons this March quarter compared to past years,” writes Monness Crespi Hardt’s Brian White, who sees 47% iPhone revenue growth during the quarter.\nAnd if Apple pulls it all together? Apple could crush Street estimates, writes Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty, who has an Overweight rating and a $158 price target on the stock, up 17% from Monday’s close of $134.72. She sees the top line above $80 billion, with all segments growing at least 19% year over year. She is especially bullish on Mac and iPad sales, with estimates far above consensus—53% for Macs and 52% for iPads. She also expects Apple to increase its dividend by 10% and expand its stock repurchase program by $60 billion.\nThat would certainly qualify as a job well done.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":454,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":341351083,"gmtCreate":1617785592942,"gmtModify":1634296526299,"author":{"id":"3555822052484377","authorId":"3555822052484377","name":"Tongs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a38d6dcec089553bed2e9e999c283a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555822052484377","authorIdStr":"3555822052484377"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOS\">$SOS Limited(SOS)$</a>&nbsp;LETS GOOO!!!&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOS\">$SOS Limited(SOS)$</a>&nbsp;LETS GOOO!!!&nbsp;","text":"$SOS Limited(SOS)$ LETS GOOO!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/341351083","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":832,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":384796675,"gmtCreate":1613684726197,"gmtModify":1634552676895,"author":{"id":"3555822052484377","authorId":"3555822052484377","name":"Tongs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a38d6dcec089553bed2e9e999c283a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555822052484377","authorIdStr":"3555822052484377"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like and comment. Thanks!&nbsp;","listText":"Pls like and comment. Thanks!&nbsp;","text":"Pls like and comment. Thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/384796675","repostId":"1102078157","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":463,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114574579,"gmtCreate":1623083108891,"gmtModify":1634037120078,"author":{"id":"3555822052484377","authorId":"3555822052484377","name":"Tongs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a38d6dcec089553bed2e9e999c283a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555822052484377","authorIdStr":"3555822052484377"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"That's cooool","listText":"That's cooool","text":"That's cooool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114574579","repostId":"1108033863","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":688,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":131298458,"gmtCreate":1621861305074,"gmtModify":1634186027374,"author":{"id":"3555822052484377","authorId":"3555822052484377","name":"Tongs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a38d6dcec089553bed2e9e999c283a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555822052484377","authorIdStr":"3555822052484377"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Do you think it's stable alr?&nbsp;","listText":"Do you think it's stable alr?&nbsp;","text":"Do you think it's stable alr?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/131298458","repostId":"1164009514","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1164009514","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621859606,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1164009514?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-24 20:33","market":"other","language":"en","title":"Bitcoin Bounces Back Above $37,000 After Weekend Selloff<blockquote>比特币在周末抛售后反弹至37,000美元上方</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164009514","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- Bitcoin rebounded from its roller-coaster weekend, with prices on track for the bigge","content":"<p>(Bloomberg) -- Bitcoin rebounded from its roller-coaster weekend, with prices on track for the biggest gain in more than three months.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——比特币从过山车般的周末反弹，价格有望创下三个多月来的最大涨幅。</blockquote></p><p>The world’s largest cryptocurrency was trading 12% higher around $37,800 as of 7:37 a.m. in New York. Digital currencies have been gripped by volatility in the past two weeks, with Bitcoin prices plunging as much as 18% on Sunday.</p><p><blockquote>截至纽约上午7点37分，全球最大的加密货币交易价格上涨12%，约为37,800美元。过去两周，数字货币一直受到波动的困扰，比特币价格周日暴跌18%。</blockquote></p><p>Traders may be feeling more positive as the crypto industry prepares for one of its biggest conferences of the year. The event, called Consensus by CoinDesk brings together executives, including Grayscale Investments chief Michael Sonnenshein and Binance Holdings Ltd. CEO Changpeng Zhao, for their views on everything from crypto asset management to decentralized finance.</p><p><blockquote>随着加密货币行业为今年最大的会议之一做准备，交易员可能会感到更加积极。该活动被CoinDesk称为Consensus，汇集了包括灰度投资首席执行官Michael Sonnenshein和币安控股有限公司首席执行官赵长鹏在内的高管，分享他们对从加密资产管理到去中心化金融等各个领域的看法。</blockquote></p><p>Investing executives and policymakers, such as Bridgewater Associates LP Founder Ray Dalio and Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard, are also slated to speak.</p><p><blockquote>Bridgewater Associates LP创始人Ray Dalio和美联储理事Lael Brainard等投资高管和政策制定者也将发表讲话。</blockquote></p><p>“Love or hate it, Bitcoin is impacting markets,” said Amy Wu Silverman, equity derivatives strategist at RBC Capital Markets, in a note Sunday. “What is Bitcoin—a currency? A 1-for-1 manifestation of Elon Musk’s thoughts? A ‘factor’ of momo+meme+speculation+angry Gen Z’s? Like a tween Justin Bieber, you don’t know what Bitcoin will be yet -- but you have a feeling it will be big.”</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场股票衍生品策略师Amy Wu Silverman在周日的一份报告中表示：“不管你喜欢与否，比特币正在影响市场。”“比特币是什么——一种货币？Elon Musk思想的一对一体现？momo+模因+投机+愤怒的Z世代的‘因素’？就像十几岁的Justin Bieber一样，你还不知道比特币会是什么样子——但你有一种感觉，它会很大。”</blockquote></p><p>Ether, the second-largest token, also rebounded on Monday, jumping 14% to about $2,300.</p><p><blockquote>第二大代币以太币周一也反弹，上涨14%至约2,300美元。</blockquote></p><p>The extreme volatility of late has prompted analysts to try guessing the outlook for digital currencies, with a JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. team saying it’s premature to call the end of the Bitcoin selloff. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. signaled that extreme swings hamper crypto’s appeal for institutional investors.</p><p><blockquote>最近的极端波动促使分析师试图猜测数字货币的前景，摩根大通公司的一个团队表示，现在看涨期权比特币抛售的结束还为时过早。高盛集团表示，极端波动阻碍了加密货币对机构投资者的吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bitcoin Bounces Back Above $37,000 After Weekend Selloff<blockquote>比特币在周末抛售后反弹至37,000美元上方</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBitcoin Bounces Back Above $37,000 After Weekend Selloff<blockquote>比特币在周末抛售后反弹至37,000美元上方</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-24 20:33</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- Bitcoin rebounded from its roller-coaster weekend, with prices on track for the biggest gain in more than three months.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——比特币从过山车般的周末反弹，价格有望创下三个多月来的最大涨幅。</blockquote></p><p>The world’s largest cryptocurrency was trading 12% higher around $37,800 as of 7:37 a.m. in New York. Digital currencies have been gripped by volatility in the past two weeks, with Bitcoin prices plunging as much as 18% on Sunday.</p><p><blockquote>截至纽约上午7点37分，全球最大的加密货币交易价格上涨12%，约为37,800美元。过去两周，数字货币一直受到波动的困扰，比特币价格周日暴跌18%。</blockquote></p><p>Traders may be feeling more positive as the crypto industry prepares for one of its biggest conferences of the year. The event, called Consensus by CoinDesk brings together executives, including Grayscale Investments chief Michael Sonnenshein and Binance Holdings Ltd. CEO Changpeng Zhao, for their views on everything from crypto asset management to decentralized finance.</p><p><blockquote>随着加密货币行业为今年最大的会议之一做准备，交易员可能会感到更加积极。该活动被CoinDesk称为Consensus，汇集了包括灰度投资首席执行官Michael Sonnenshein和币安控股有限公司首席执行官赵长鹏在内的高管，分享他们对从加密资产管理到去中心化金融等各个领域的看法。</blockquote></p><p>Investing executives and policymakers, such as Bridgewater Associates LP Founder Ray Dalio and Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard, are also slated to speak.</p><p><blockquote>Bridgewater Associates LP创始人Ray Dalio和美联储理事Lael Brainard等投资高管和政策制定者也将发表讲话。</blockquote></p><p>“Love or hate it, Bitcoin is impacting markets,” said Amy Wu Silverman, equity derivatives strategist at RBC Capital Markets, in a note Sunday. “What is Bitcoin—a currency? A 1-for-1 manifestation of Elon Musk’s thoughts? A ‘factor’ of momo+meme+speculation+angry Gen Z’s? Like a tween Justin Bieber, you don’t know what Bitcoin will be yet -- but you have a feeling it will be big.”</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场股票衍生品策略师Amy Wu Silverman在周日的一份报告中表示：“不管你喜欢与否，比特币正在影响市场。”“比特币是什么——一种货币？Elon Musk思想的一对一体现？momo+模因+投机+愤怒的Z世代的‘因素’？就像十几岁的Justin Bieber一样，你还不知道比特币会是什么样子——但你有一种感觉，它会很大。”</blockquote></p><p>Ether, the second-largest token, also rebounded on Monday, jumping 14% to about $2,300.</p><p><blockquote>第二大代币以太币周一也反弹，上涨14%至约2,300美元。</blockquote></p><p>The extreme volatility of late has prompted analysts to try guessing the outlook for digital currencies, with a JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. team saying it’s premature to call the end of the Bitcoin selloff. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. signaled that extreme swings hamper crypto’s appeal for institutional investors.</p><p><blockquote>最近的极端波动促使分析师试图猜测数字货币的前景，摩根大通公司的一个团队表示，现在看涨期权比特币抛售的结束还为时过早。高盛集团表示，极端波动阻碍了加密货币对机构投资者的吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-bounces-back-above-37-120715542.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-bounces-back-above-37-120715542.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164009514","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Bitcoin rebounded from its roller-coaster weekend, with prices on track for the biggest gain in more than three months.The world’s largest cryptocurrency was trading 12% higher around $37,800 as of 7:37 a.m. in New York. Digital currencies have been gripped by volatility in the past two weeks, with Bitcoin prices plunging as much as 18% on Sunday.Traders may be feeling more positive as the crypto industry prepares for one of its biggest conferences of the year. The event, called Consensus by CoinDesk brings together executives, including Grayscale Investments chief Michael Sonnenshein and Binance Holdings Ltd. CEO Changpeng Zhao, for their views on everything from crypto asset management to decentralized finance.Investing executives and policymakers, such as Bridgewater Associates LP Founder Ray Dalio and Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard, are also slated to speak.“Love or hate it, Bitcoin is impacting markets,” said Amy Wu Silverman, equity derivatives strategist at RBC Capital Markets, in a note Sunday. “What is Bitcoin—a currency? A 1-for-1 manifestation of Elon Musk’s thoughts? A ‘factor’ of momo+meme+speculation+angry Gen Z’s? Like a tween Justin Bieber, you don’t know what Bitcoin will be yet -- but you have a feeling it will be big.”Ether, the second-largest token, also rebounded on Monday, jumping 14% to about $2,300.The extreme volatility of late has prompted analysts to try guessing the outlook for digital currencies, with a JPMorgan Chase & Co. team saying it’s premature to call the end of the Bitcoin selloff. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. signaled that extreme swings hamper crypto’s appeal for institutional investors.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":514,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":344172641,"gmtCreate":1618391719783,"gmtModify":1634293275092,"author":{"id":"3555822052484377","authorId":"3555822052484377","name":"Tongs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a38d6dcec089553bed2e9e999c283a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555822052484377","authorIdStr":"3555822052484377"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Can't wait!!&nbsp;","listText":"Can't wait!!&nbsp;","text":"Can't wait!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/344172641","repostId":"2127454000","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":547,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":826950368,"gmtCreate":1633966942738,"gmtModify":1633966942738,"author":{"id":"3555822052484377","authorId":"3555822052484377","name":"Tongs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a38d6dcec089553bed2e9e999c283a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555822052484377","authorIdStr":"3555822052484377"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/826950368","repostId":"1174273121","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174273121","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633965002,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1174273121?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-11 23:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Visa Stock: Scalability And Buffett Value Line<blockquote>Visa股票：可扩展性和巴菲特价值线</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174273121","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThis article analyzes Visa from the perspective of its profit sustainability and scalabilit","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>This article analyzes Visa from the perspective of its profit sustainability and scalability.</li>  <li>This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and the marginal efficiency of capital.</li>  <li>The results show that V not only earns a consistently high ROCE in the past but is still perfectly scalable at its current stage, indicating sustainable profit ahead.</li>  <li>Lastly, this article also discusses its valuation, especially valuation adjusted for ROCE compared to other stocks that enjoy superb scalability using what I call the Buffett value line.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4e9c2f1150ac54e1f764f98c0880f1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1039\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>本文从Visa的盈利可持续性和可扩展性的角度对其进行分析。</li><li>该分析考察了利润可持续性最重要的两个方面：已用资本回报率(“ROCE”)和资本边际效率。</li><li>结果表明，V不仅在过去获得了持续较高的ROCE，而且在当前阶段仍然具有完美的可扩展性，表明未来将实现可持续利润。</li><li>最后，本文还讨论了其估值，特别是与使用我看涨期权的巴菲特价值线享有卓越可扩展性的其他股票相比，根据ROCE调整的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>贾斯汀·沙利文/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> This article analyzes Visa Inc (V), with a focus on its profit sustainability and scalability. This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit Sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the most two important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the two most fundamental aspects of the same central issue of profit Sustainability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is SO FAR. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.</p><p><blockquote>本文分析Visa Inc(V)，重点关注其利润可持续性和可扩展性。该分析考察了利润可持续性最重要的两个方面：已用资本回报率(“ROCE”)和已用资本边际回报率(“MROCE”)。对我来说，ROCE和MROCE是分析企业最重要的两个指标。它们揭示了利润可持续性这一核心问题的两个最基本的方面。ROCE告诉我们该业务迄今为止的盈利能力。MROCE深入了解了盈利能力可能走向的方向。</blockquote></p><p> The results show that V not only earns a consistently high ROCE in the past but is still perfectly scalable at its current stage, indicating sustainable profit ahead. It is truly impressive for a business at such a staggering scale to maintain perfect scalability. Lastly, this article also discusses its valuation, especially valuation adjusted for ROCE and valuation compared to the other stocks that are exemplary scalable stocks (such as the FAAMG stocks and Buffett style stocks).</p><p><blockquote>结果表明，V不仅在过去获得了持续较高的ROCE，而且在当前阶段仍然具有完美的可扩展性，表明未来将实现可持续利润。对于规模如此惊人的企业来说，保持完美的可扩展性确实令人印象深刻。最后，本文还讨论了其估值，特别是根据ROCE调整的估值以及与其他示例性可扩展股票（例如FAAMG股票和巴菲特风格股票）相比的估值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The moat and the network effects</b></p><p><blockquote><b>护城河与网络效应</b></blockquote></p><p> V’s moat is in its scale and scalability, best demonstrated in the following two charts. The first chart shows the number of credit, debit, and prepaid cards in circulation worldwide from 2017 to 2019, with forecasts for 2023 and 2025. In 2019, there were 22.8 billion credit, debit, and prepaid cards in circulation worldwide. This figure is set to reach 29.31 billion by 2023, a 28% increase from the 2019 level. This figure will further increase to surpass 30 billion by 2025, a 34% increase from the 2019 level. In other words, the total cards in circulation will increase by more than 1/3 by 2025. The trend of digital transactions is unstoppable.</p><p><blockquote>V的护城河在于其规模和可扩展性，下面两张图表最好地展示了这一点。第一张图表显示了2017年至2019年全球流通的信用卡、借记卡和预付卡数量，并对2023年和2025年进行了预测。2019年，全球有228亿张信用卡、借记卡和预付卡在流通。到2023年，这一数字将达到293.1亿，比2019年的水平增长28%。到2025年，这一数字将进一步增加，超过300亿，比2019年的水平增长34%。也就是说，到2025年流通卡总量将增长1/3以上。数字化交易的趋势势不可挡。</blockquote></p><p> The second chart shows that V, as the leading player in this space, will benefit the most from this secular trend. V is the world’s largest retail electronic payments network providing processing services and payment product platforms. This includes credit, debit, prepaid, and commercial payments, which are offered under the Visa, Visa Electron, Interlink, and PLUS brands. Visa/PLUS is one of the largest global ATM networks. V facilitates digital payments across more than 200 countries and territories. It has 3.6 billion cards in circulation, about 16% of the total number of cards in circulation globally. It processes a mindboggling amount of transactions – 206 billion payment transactions and a total transaction volume of $12.5 trillion in 2020 – an undisputed dominance of the payment network.</p><p><blockquote>第二张图表显示，V作为该领域的领导者，将从这一长期趋势中受益最多。V是全球最大的零售电子支付网络，提供处理服务和支付产品平台。这包括信用卡、借记卡、预付费和商业支付，这些支付以Visa、Visa Electron、Interlink和PLUS品牌提供。Visa/PLUS是全球最大的ATM网络之一。V为200多个国家和地区的数字支付提供便利。它拥有36亿张流通卡，约占全球流通卡总数的16%。它处理了令人难以置信的交易量——2060亿笔支付交易，2020年总交易额为12.5万亿美元——这是支付网络无可争议的主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e261998de072e355b6f039912d0f1453\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/036bc8c94696fcfd8ed3403b699534c6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"318\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Visa USA.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：美国签证。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, it is unlikely that such dominance would change in the future (barring any major regulation or antitrust legislation change) due to the so-called \"network effects\". The network effects refer to the fact that the value of certain products or services increases as more people use them. In other words, certain networks become increasingly more valuable as they become bigger. Not every network enjoys this magic feature, and as a matter of fact, most networks suffer a diminishing marginal rate of return – i.e., the additional return decreases as the network becomes bigger – as to be elaborated later. A chain restaurant network is an example. As the network becomes larger, the nodes begin to compete against each other for customers and the return diminishes.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于所谓的“网络效应”，这种主导地位在未来不太可能改变（除非任何重大监管或反托拉斯法发生变化）。网络效应是指某些产品或服务的价值随着更多人使用而增加。换句话说，某些网络随着规模的扩大而变得越来越有价值。并不是每个网络都享有这种神奇的特性，事实上，大多数网络的边际回报率是递减的——即，额外回报随着网络变大而减少——这将在后面详细说明。连锁餐厅网络就是一个例子。随着网络变得更大，节点开始相互竞争客户，回报减少。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But certain networks, like the services V provides, enjoy this magic trait – the network becomes more profitable as it becomes bigger. There is nothing new about the concept. It was true of railways, telephones, and fax machines. All these examples share these common traits: A) the larger the network becomes, the more valuable it becomes (one segment of a railway linking city A and B is far more valuable when this segment also links to other railways linking other cities); and B) the larger the network becomes, the higher the switching cost (if everyone uses a fax machine and you do not want to use one, good luck to you).</p><p><blockquote>但某些网络，如V提供的服务，享有这种神奇的特性——网络越大，利润就越高。这个概念没有什么新意。铁路、电话和传真机都是如此。所有这些例子都有这些共同的特征：a）网络变得越大，它就变得越有价值（当连接城市A和B的铁路的一段也连接到连接其他城市的其他铁路时，这段铁路的价值要高得多）；B）网络越大，交换成本就越高（如果每个人都使用传真机，而你不想使用传真机，祝你好运）。</blockquote></p><p> Again, there is nothing new about the concept. But the internet age dramatically amplified the potency of the network effects. Once a lead is established – for whatever the reason – the network effects would just kick in, take over, and compound itself.</p><p><blockquote>同样，这个概念没有什么新意。但是互联网时代极大地放大了网络效应的威力。一旦建立了线索——不管出于什么原因——网络效应就会开始发挥作用，接管并自我复合。</blockquote></p><p> It is a self-sustaining positive feedback loop: more users in this network will lead to more convenience, better efficiency, lower cost, which will make the network even better and more valuable for its users and clients, which will, in turn, attract more new users and clients to join and make it harder for existing users to leave, which again will lead back to more users and an even larger network. And such feedback will be reflected in a very high level of return on capital employed (“ROCE”) as to be seen later.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个自我维持的正反馈循环：这个网络中更多的用户将带来更多的便利、更好的效率、更低的成本，这将使网络对其用户和客户更好、更有价值，这反过来将吸引更多的新用户和客户加入，并使现有用户更难离开，这将再次导致更多的用户和更大的网络。这种反馈将反映在非常高的已用资本回报率（“ROCE”）中，这将在后面看到。</blockquote></p><p> Unfortunately, like all good things eventually run to an end, so do the benefits of the above network effects. At some point, gravity always catches up, and return begins to diminish. In the railway example, if enough railways have already been built to link all cities with high population density, building the next segment would suffer a diminished return now. In the fax machine example, if every office already has one, adding a second one to each office would also suffer a diminished return.</p><p><blockquote>不幸的是，就像所有美好的事情最终都会结束一样，上述网络效应的好处也会结束。在某些时候，重力总是赶上来，回报开始减少。在铁路的例子中，如果已经建造了足够多的铁路来连接所有人口密度高的城市，那么现在建造下一段铁路的回报将会减少。在传真机的例子中，如果每个办公室都已经有一台传真机，那么在每个办公室增加第二台传真机也会减少回报。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, as investors, we do not only need to examine the ROCE, but also equally importantly, to examine the marginal return. Because the marginal return tells us if the business is still in a scalable stage, or if the business has already passed the tipping point of scalability and begins to see a diminishing return. In another word, MROCE let us see if the gravity of diminishing return has caught up yet or not.</p><p><blockquote>因此，作为投资者，我们不仅要考察ROCE，同样重要的是要考察边际收益。因为边际回报告诉我们业务是否仍处于可扩展阶段，或者业务是否已经过了可扩展性的临界点，开始出现收益递减。换句话说，MROCE让我们看看收益递减的严重性是否已经赶上了。</blockquote></p><p> And the remainder of this article will examine both aspects next.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，本文的其余部分将研究这两个方面。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Return on capital employed (“ROCE”)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>已动用资本回报率（“ROCE”）</b></blockquote></p><p> ROCE stands for the return on capital employed. Note that ROCE is different from the return on equity (and more fundamental and important in my view). ROCE considers the return of capital ACTUALLY employed, and therefore provides insight into how effectively the business uses its capital to earn a profit. Readers interested in the details of the ROCE analysis can find them in my&nbsp;earlier article. Here I will just summarize the results in the chart below. In these results, I considered the following items capital actually employed A) Working capital (including payables, receivables, inventory), B) Gross Property, Plant, and Equipment, C) Research and development expenses are capitalized, and D) the intangible book value, mainly consisting of intellectual property and patents for such a business.</p><p><blockquote>ROCE代表已用资本回报率。请注意，ROCE不同于股本回报率（在我看来更基本、更重要）。ROCE考虑实际使用的资本回报，因此可以深入了解企业如何有效地利用其资本赚取利润。对ROCE分析细节感兴趣的读者可以在我之前的文章中找到。在这里，我将在下面的图表中总结结果。在这些结果中，我考虑了实际使用的以下项目资本a)营运资本（包括应付账款、应收账款、存货），B)不动产、厂房和设备总额，C)资本化的研发费用，以及D)无形账面价值，主要包括此类业务的知识产权和专利。</blockquote></p><p> As seen, it was able to maintain an astronomical level of ROCE over the past decade: on average ~103%. To put things in perspective, the next chart compares V’s ROCE against the FAAMG stocks – a group of businesses that exploits the network effects to the extreme. As can be seen, V earns a very competitive ROCE among them – only second to Apple (AAPL). Every $1 of earning reinvested will fuel more than $1 of additional future earnings growth on average.</p><p><blockquote>正如所见，它在过去十年中能够保持天文数字的ROCE水平：平均约103%。为了正确看待事情，下图将V的ROCE与FAAMG股票进行了比较，FAAMG股票是一组将网络效应发挥到极致的企业。可以看出，V在其中获得了极具竞争力的ROCE——仅次于苹果(AAPL)。平均而言，每1美元的收益再投资将推动超过1美元的未来收益增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/877e3bb73de3e6c4fbab1a0133f74464\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"380\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f25b4c6dc0c7ee738ac345c3888ae11\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Introduction to marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”)</p><p><blockquote>边际资本回报率（“边际资本回报率”）简介</blockquote></p><p> In addition to ROCE, an equally important concept is the marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the most two important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the most fundamental two aspects of the same central issue of profitability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is SO FAR. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.</p><p><blockquote>除了ROCE之外，一个同样重要的概念是边际资本回报率（“MROCE”）。对我来说，ROCE和MROCE是分析企业最重要的两个指标。它们揭示了盈利能力这个核心问题的最基本的两个方面。ROCE告诉我们该业务迄今为止的盈利能力。MROCE深入了解了盈利能力可能走向的方向。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A bit of background and introduction for readers who are new to the concept. For readers familiar with the concept already, definitely skip this section. From what I’ve learned, the legendary economist John Maynard Keynes first explicitly expressed this concept, although people before him have observed and thought about it for some time already. What the concept tries to capture is a basic law in economic activities: the law of diminishing returns. Warren Buffett likes to say that interest rate acts like gravity on all economic activities. Well, diminishing returns act like gravity on all economic activities too, if not more so, as long as human nature does not change in any fundamental way.</p><p><blockquote>为不熟悉这个概念的读者提供一点背景和介绍。对于已经熟悉这个概念的读者来说，一定要跳过这一部分。据我所知，传奇经济学家约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯首先明确表达了这个概念，尽管在他之前的人已经观察和思考了一段时间。这个概念试图捕捉的是经济活动中的一个基本规律：收益递减规律。沃伦·巴菲特喜欢说，利率就像重力一样影响所有经济活动。嗯，只要人性不发生任何根本性的变化，收益递减对所有经济活动也有引力作用，如果不是更大的话。</blockquote></p><p> The next chart illustrates the concept. As long as shareholders are seeking profit, a public business will first invest its money at projects with the highest possible rate of return (i.e., picking the lowest hanging apples first or getting the most bang for the buck first). Therefore, the first batch of available resources is invested at a high rate of return – the highest the business can possibly identify. The second batch of money will have to be invested at a somewhat lower rate of return since the best ideas have been taken by the first batch of resources already, and so on. The last batch of money invested may earn a rate of return that is only above the cost of capital. And finally, the end result is a declining MROCE curve as shown.</p><p><blockquote>下一个图表说明了这个概念。只要股东寻求利润，上市企业就会首先将资金投资于回报率最高的项目（即，先摘最低的苹果或先获得最大的回报）。因此，第一批可用资源的投资回报率很高——企业可能确定的最高回报率。第二批资金将不得不以较低的回报率进行投资，因为最好的想法已经被第一批资源采纳了，等等。最后一批投入的钱可能会获得仅高于资金成本的回报率。最后，最终结果是如图所示下降的MROCE曲线。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1cd59ec1a6da411c303c2bbccaf2425\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"460\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The ROCE we normally talk about and companies report refers to the average of this curve – averaging the return on all batches of money invested. Obviously, the average is very useful information by itself. It tells us how efficiently the business has been converting resources into profit so far – but its limitation is that it only tells us the efficiency of the resources that have already been invested SO FAR. What is of equal importance to investors is the MROCE, which tells us how much incremental profit the business WILL generate when the next batch of resources are invested.</p><p><blockquote>我们通常谈论和公司报告的ROCE指的是这条曲线的平均值——平均所有批次投资的回报。显然，平均值本身就是非常有用的信息。它告诉我们企业到目前为止将资源转化为利润的效率——但它的局限性在于，它只告诉我们到目前为止已经投入的资源的效率。对投资者同样重要的是MROCE，它告诉我们下一批资源投入时，业务会产生多少增量利润。</blockquote></p><p> For investors, a dream business to invest in would be a business that enjoys a flat MROCE curve as shown by the solid blue line. This would be a business that is perfectly scalable. A business that earns a consistent and stable profit for every batch of resources invested. However, such a business is really only a dream business. I mentioned earlier that diminishing returns act like gravity on all economic activities - because they really do. There has been no business (at least not so far in human history) that can keep growing while at the same time maintaining a constant return on capital. At some point, gravity always catches up and the return begins to decline (as shown by the dashed blue line).</p><p><blockquote>对于投资者来说，梦想投资的企业是拥有平坦MROCE曲线的企业，如蓝色实线所示。这将是一个完全可扩展的业务。每投入一批资源都能获得持续稳定利润的企业。然而，这样的生意真的只是梦中生意。我之前提到过，收益递减对所有经济活动都有引力作用——因为它们确实如此。从来没有一个企业（至少在人类历史上没有）能够在保持资本回报率的同时保持增长。在某些时候，重力总是赶上来，回报开始下降（如蓝色虚线所示）。</blockquote></p><p> V’s MROCE</p><p><blockquote>V的MROCE</blockquote></p><p> So for investors, the next best deal is to invest in a business that A) has a high and stable ROCE, and B) that is still in the scalable stage (the gravity of diminishing return has not caught up yet). And as shown in the next chart, V seems to be such a business at such a stage.</p><p><blockquote>因此，对于投资者来说，下一个最好的交易是投资a）具有高且稳定的ROCE，B）仍处于可扩展阶段（回报递减的严重性尚未赶上）的企业。而如下图所示，V在这样一个阶段似乎就是这样一个业务。</blockquote></p><p> This chart shows the MROCE and ROCE for V over recent years. The ROCE data are the same as those shown in the previous section. The MROCE data are estimated by the following steps. First, the capital employed was calculated for each year. Second, the earnings were calculated each year. Third, then the incremental of capital employed year over year was calculated. Similarly, the incremental earnings year over year were also calculated. And finally, the ratio between the incremental earnings and incremental capital employed was calculated to approximate the MROCE. During years when there were large fluctuations in either the incremental earnings or the capital employed, a multi-year running average was taken to smooth the fluctuations.</p><p><blockquote>这张图表显示了近年来V的MROCE和ROCE。ROCE数据与上一节所示相同。通过以下步骤估计MROCE数据。首先，计算每年使用的资本。其次，每年计算收益。第三，计算每年使用的资本增量。同样，还计算了同比增量收益。最后，计算增量收益和增量资本使用之间的比率以近似MROCE。在增量盈利或资本使用波动较大的年度，采用多年运行平均法来平滑波动。</blockquote></p><p> Before we began to interpret the results, let me first clarify the difficulties of analyzing marginal return on capital and the limitations of the approach I used here. Firstly, it is just mathematically much harder to estimate the rate of change (e.g., which is what MROCE is essentially is) than the average change (which is what ROCE is essentially is). Estimating the latter involves dividing two large numbers and the uncertainties are small. Estimating the former requires dividing two small numbers and the uncertainties in the financial data can be magnified. Secondly, some capital investments in a business can take multiple years (more than 3 years) to bear fruit (or to fail). Therefore, isolating and tracking the marginal return produced by investments made in a given year is inherently difficult. Although most of the projects should begin to show results (either good or bad) in 3 years and this approach should be able to capture the dominating trend of marginal return.</p><p><blockquote>在我们开始解释结果之前，让我首先澄清分析边际资本回报率的困难以及我在这里使用的方法的局限性。首先，从数学上讲，估计变化率（例如，MROCE本质上是什么）比平均变化（ROCE本质上是什么）要困难得多。估计后者需要除以两个大数，不确定性很小。估计前者需要除以两个小数字，财务数据中的不确定性可以被放大。其次，对企业的一些资本投资可能需要多年（超过3年）才能取得成果（或失败）。因此，隔离和跟踪某一年投资产生的边际回报本质上是困难的。尽管大多数项目应该在3年内开始显示结果（无论是好的还是坏的），并且这种方法应该能够捕捉边际回报的主导趋势。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> With the above understanding, let’s look at the results closely. First, note that the extraordinarily high MROCE during the early part of the decade again provides a strong illustration of the network effects and the secular trend that support the business at a fundamental level. The business model is just too good.</p><p><blockquote>有了以上的了解，我们来仔细看看结果。首先，请注意，本世纪初极高的MROCE再次有力地说明了从根本上支持业务的网络效应和长期趋势。商业模式太好了。</blockquote></p><p> The results in the chart also show that at this stage, V has been actually able to maintain an MROCE that actually is higher than the average ROCE in recent years. As seen, the ROCE has been on average 103% in recent years, and the MROCE has been on average 157%. It was significantly lower than the 350+% level in the earlier part of the decade – gravity always tries to catch up. But it is still higher than the ROCE by a good margin. And the gap is more than 50%, too large to be caused by the uncertainties in the financial data and rounding off errors. So this result suggests that V has not entered a stage of diminishing return yet - gravity has not caught up yet. And if the current MROCE continues, V’s ROCE will maintain its current high level or even further expand.</p><p><blockquote>图表中的结果还显示，在这个阶段，V实际上能够保持实际上高于近年来平均ROCE的MROCE。可以看出，近年来ROCE平均为103%，MROCE平均为157%。这明显低于本世纪初350%以上的水平——重力总是试图迎头赶上。但仍远高于ROCE。而且差距超过50%，太大了，不可能是财务数据的不确定性和舍入误差造成的。所以这个结果表明V还没有进入收益递减阶段——重力还没有赶上。而如果目前的MROCE继续下去，V的ROCE将维持目前的高水平，甚至进一步扩大。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cea9c214b6d0dd15d8f9c5c1392272e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha data.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha数据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> After the above discussion of its profitability sustainability, let’s look at the valuation. At its current price levels, V’s PE is about 44x and FW PE is about 39.6x. The valuation is both high in absolute terms and also high in relative terms. For example, when compared to the FAAMG pack, V’s current valuation is only lower than Amazon (AMZN) in terms of the PE multiple and higher than all the others.</p><p><blockquote>以上讨论完其盈利持续性，我们再来看看估值。在目前的价格水平上，V的PE约为44倍，FW PE约为39.6倍。估值无论是绝对值还是相对值都很高。例如，与FAAMG pack相比，V目前的估值仅低于亚马逊(AMZN)的市盈率，高于所有其他公司。</blockquote></p><p> It is not that meaningful to discuss valuation in isolation and without adjusting for the quality of the business. The next chart therefore also compares V valuation adjusted for its ROCE with its peers. If you are familiar with Buffett’s holdings, you would recognize that the stocks in this chart represent some of the large BRK holdings.</p><p><blockquote>如果不根据业务质量进行调整，孤立地讨论估值是没有意义的。因此，下一张图表还将根据ROCE调整后的V估值与同行进行了比较。如果您熟悉巴菲特的持股，您就会认识到这张图表中的股票代表了BRK的一些大型持股。</blockquote></p><p> I am not sure what the picture will look like as we add more data points on this chart (I do plan to organize my notes on other BRK major holdings and add more data points onto this plot). But with the few data points I have now, I cannot help drawing/seeing the green line - what I call a Buffett value line. It is a line linking AbbVie Inc (ABBV) and AAPL - a good business at a good price and a high-quality business at a high price. So from a value investor point of view, it only makes sense to make investments along this line or below it. Because investment along this line or below represents a trade-off between quality and price that is equivalent or better than ABBV or AAPL. It makes no sense to invest above this line, as anything above this line represents an inferior trade-off between quality and price - we'd be better off just investing in ABBV and AAPL.</p><p><blockquote>我不确定当我们在这张图表上添加更多数据点时，情况会是什么样子（我确实计划组织我对其他BRK主要持股的笔记，并在这张图表上添加更多数据点）。但凭借我现在掌握的几个数据点，我忍不住画出/看到了绿线——我看涨期权的巴菲特价值线。它是连接艾伯维公司（ABBV）和苹果公司的一条线——物美价廉的好企业和高价的高质量企业。因此，从价值投资者的角度来看，只有沿着这条线或低于这条线进行投资才有意义。因为沿着这条线或以下的投资代表了质量和价格之间的权衡，相当于或优于ABBV或AAPL。投资高于这条线是没有意义的，因为高于这条线的任何东西都代表着质量和价格之间的劣质权衡——我们最好只投资ABBV和AAPL。</blockquote></p><p> As you can see, V is currently way above the green line, showing a valuation that is only expensive by itself, but also when adjusted for its ROCE – even if it is superb ROCE.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，V目前远高于绿线，表明其估值不仅本身昂贵，而且在根据其ROCE进行调整后也很昂贵——即使它的ROCE非常出色。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e9fbfdb9a53f0dac2386fcfaf067800\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha data.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha数据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Catalysts and risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>催化剂和风险</b></blockquote></p><p> The long-term catalyst is the trend of digital transactions as mentioned at the beginning of the article. In my view, this trend is unstoppable. The expansive deployment of e-commerce platforms will further accelerate this transition.</p><p><blockquote>长期催化剂是文章开头提到的数字化交易趋势。在我看来，这个趋势是不可阻挡的。电子商务平台的广泛部署将进一步加速这一转变。</blockquote></p><p> The most significant catalyst and also a risk at the same time in the near term is the direction and the pace of the economic recovery. If economic activities and especially travel activities resume to their normal level, V will benefit significantly, as commented by the CFO:</p><p><blockquote>短期内最重要的催化剂，同时也是风险，是经济复苏的方向和步伐。正如首席财务官所评论的，如果经济活动，尤其是旅游活动恢复到正常水平，V将受益匪浅：</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   \"We have seen immediate impacts since popular travel destinations opened their borders. Greece opened borders in April, and inbound card-present spend rose nearly 30 points by the end of June relative to 2019 levels. France opened on June 9, and inbound card-present volumes rose nearly 20 points by the end of June relative to 2019 ... Since April, card-present cross-border spend in Mexico from the U.S. rose nearly 50 points to over 170% of 2019 levels.\"    <i>Vasant Prabhu, Visa CFO (Q3 FY21 earnings call)</i>  In terms of risks, I see a valuation risk here as aforementioned. In terms of business fundamentals, I really do not see any risks in the near- or even long-term. The economic recovery from the pandemic mentioned above is not really a fundamental risk in my view. Even if it develops in the wrong direction and/or at a pace slower than expected, it is at most a temporary hiccup for V. The business model is too robust and too scalable. In the really long term, we can only speculate. The disruption from Fintechs and Crypto currency must be a potential risk in the long term. I suggest readers interested in these discussions to read the analysis published by&nbsp;Natalie Koo.</p><p><blockquote>“自从热门旅游目的地开放边境以来，我们已经看到了直接的影响。希腊在4月份开放了边境，到6月底，入境持卡消费相对于2019年的水平增长了近30个百分点。法国于6月9日开放，截至6月底，入境持卡量相对于2019年增长了近20个百分点...自4月份以来，从美国到墨西哥的持卡跨境消费增长了近50个百分点，达到2019年水平的170%以上。”<i>Vasant Prabhu，Visa首席财务官（2021财年第三季度看涨期权收益）</i>就风险而言，我看到了前面提到的估值风险。就业务基本面而言，我确实认为短期甚至长期没有任何风险。在我看来，上述疫情的经济复苏并不是真正的根本性风险。即使它朝着错误的方向发展和/或以比预期更慢的速度发展，对V来说也最多是暂时的打嗝。商业模式太健壮，可扩展性太强。从真正的长期来看，我们只能猜测。从长远来看，金融科技和加密货币的破坏肯定是一个潜在的风险。我建议对这些讨论感兴趣的读者阅读Natalie Koo发表的分析。</blockquote></p><p> Conclusion and final thought</p><p><blockquote>结论和最后的思考</blockquote></p><p> This article analyzes Visa Inc (V), with a focus on its profit sustainability and scalability. This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit Sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the most two important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the two most fundamental aspects of the same central issue of profit Sustainability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is SO FAR. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.</p><p><blockquote>本文分析Visa Inc(V)，重点关注其利润可持续性和可扩展性。该分析考察了利润可持续性最重要的两个方面：已用资本回报率(“ROCE”)和已用资本边际回报率(“MROCE”)。对我来说，ROCE和MROCE是分析企业最重要的两个指标。它们揭示了利润可持续性这一核心问题的两个最基本的方面。ROCE告诉我们该业务迄今为止的盈利能力。MROCE深入了解了盈利能力可能走向的方向。</blockquote></p><p> The results show that:</p><p><blockquote>结果表明：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>V not only earns a consistently high ROCE in the past but is still perfectly scalable at its current stage, indicating sustainable profit ahead.</li>  <li>The ROCE has been on average about 103% and compares very favorably against overachievers which are exemplary scalable stocks.</li>  <li>And the MROCE has been on average 157% in recent years. So this result suggests that V has not reached the stage of diminishing return yet - gravity has not caught up yet. It is truly impressive for a business at such a staggering scale (which processes $15 trillion of transaction volume last year) to still maintain perfect scalability.</li>  <li>Lastly, this article also discusses its valuation, especially valuation adjusted for ROCE compared to other stocks that enjoy superb scalability using what I call the Buffett value line. V is currently way above the value line, showing its valuation to be only expensive by itself, but also when adjusted for its ROCE – even if it is superb ROCE.</li> </ul> As such, my final verdict is that it is still a perfectly scalable business, but it is more than perfectly priced. Investment at this point will take some time, patience, and commitment for the growth to catch up with the valuation. It is only for long-term committed investors (with at least 5+ years of time horizon) who could hold to it and sit out any potential near-term valuation volatilities.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>V不仅在过去获得了持续较高的ROCE，而且在当前阶段仍然具有完美的可扩展性，表明未来将实现可持续利润。</li><li>ROCE平均约为103%，与表现优异的股票（典型的可扩展股票）相比非常有利。</li><li>近年来MROCE平均为157%。所以这个结果表明V还没有达到收益递减的阶段——重力还没有赶上。对于规模如此惊人（去年处理了15万亿美元的交易量）的企业来说，仍然保持完美的可扩展性确实令人印象深刻。</li><li>最后，本文还讨论了其估值，特别是与使用我看涨期权的巴菲特价值线享有卓越可扩展性的其他股票相比，根据ROCE调整的估值。V目前远高于价值线，这表明其估值不仅本身昂贵，而且在根据ROCE进行调整后也很昂贵——即使它的ROCE非常出色。</li></ul>因此，我的最终结论是，它仍然是一个完全可扩展的业务，但它的定价不仅仅是完美的。此时的投资需要一些时间、耐心和承诺，让增长赶上估值。它只适合长期承诺的投资者（至少有5年以上的时间范围），他们可以坚持下去，不受任何潜在的近期估值波动的影响。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Visa Stock: Scalability And Buffett Value Line<blockquote>Visa股票：可扩展性和巴菲特价值线</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nVisa Stock: Scalability And Buffett Value Line<blockquote>Visa股票：可扩展性和巴菲特价值线</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-11 23:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>This article analyzes Visa from the perspective of its profit sustainability and scalability.</li>  <li>This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and the marginal efficiency of capital.</li>  <li>The results show that V not only earns a consistently high ROCE in the past but is still perfectly scalable at its current stage, indicating sustainable profit ahead.</li>  <li>Lastly, this article also discusses its valuation, especially valuation adjusted for ROCE compared to other stocks that enjoy superb scalability using what I call the Buffett value line.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4e9c2f1150ac54e1f764f98c0880f1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1039\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>本文从Visa的盈利可持续性和可扩展性的角度对其进行分析。</li><li>该分析考察了利润可持续性最重要的两个方面：已用资本回报率(“ROCE”)和资本边际效率。</li><li>结果表明，V不仅在过去获得了持续较高的ROCE，而且在当前阶段仍然具有完美的可扩展性，表明未来将实现可持续利润。</li><li>最后，本文还讨论了其估值，特别是与使用我看涨期权的巴菲特价值线享有卓越可扩展性的其他股票相比，根据ROCE调整的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>贾斯汀·沙利文/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> This article analyzes Visa Inc (V), with a focus on its profit sustainability and scalability. This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit Sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the most two important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the two most fundamental aspects of the same central issue of profit Sustainability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is SO FAR. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.</p><p><blockquote>本文分析Visa Inc(V)，重点关注其利润可持续性和可扩展性。该分析考察了利润可持续性最重要的两个方面：已用资本回报率(“ROCE”)和已用资本边际回报率(“MROCE”)。对我来说，ROCE和MROCE是分析企业最重要的两个指标。它们揭示了利润可持续性这一核心问题的两个最基本的方面。ROCE告诉我们该业务迄今为止的盈利能力。MROCE深入了解了盈利能力可能走向的方向。</blockquote></p><p> The results show that V not only earns a consistently high ROCE in the past but is still perfectly scalable at its current stage, indicating sustainable profit ahead. It is truly impressive for a business at such a staggering scale to maintain perfect scalability. Lastly, this article also discusses its valuation, especially valuation adjusted for ROCE and valuation compared to the other stocks that are exemplary scalable stocks (such as the FAAMG stocks and Buffett style stocks).</p><p><blockquote>结果表明，V不仅在过去获得了持续较高的ROCE，而且在当前阶段仍然具有完美的可扩展性，表明未来将实现可持续利润。对于规模如此惊人的企业来说，保持完美的可扩展性确实令人印象深刻。最后，本文还讨论了其估值，特别是根据ROCE调整的估值以及与其他示例性可扩展股票（例如FAAMG股票和巴菲特风格股票）相比的估值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The moat and the network effects</b></p><p><blockquote><b>护城河与网络效应</b></blockquote></p><p> V’s moat is in its scale and scalability, best demonstrated in the following two charts. The first chart shows the number of credit, debit, and prepaid cards in circulation worldwide from 2017 to 2019, with forecasts for 2023 and 2025. In 2019, there were 22.8 billion credit, debit, and prepaid cards in circulation worldwide. This figure is set to reach 29.31 billion by 2023, a 28% increase from the 2019 level. This figure will further increase to surpass 30 billion by 2025, a 34% increase from the 2019 level. In other words, the total cards in circulation will increase by more than 1/3 by 2025. The trend of digital transactions is unstoppable.</p><p><blockquote>V的护城河在于其规模和可扩展性，下面两张图表最好地展示了这一点。第一张图表显示了2017年至2019年全球流通的信用卡、借记卡和预付卡数量，并对2023年和2025年进行了预测。2019年，全球有228亿张信用卡、借记卡和预付卡在流通。到2023年，这一数字将达到293.1亿，比2019年的水平增长28%。到2025年，这一数字将进一步增加，超过300亿，比2019年的水平增长34%。也就是说，到2025年流通卡总量将增长1/3以上。数字化交易的趋势势不可挡。</blockquote></p><p> The second chart shows that V, as the leading player in this space, will benefit the most from this secular trend. V is the world’s largest retail electronic payments network providing processing services and payment product platforms. This includes credit, debit, prepaid, and commercial payments, which are offered under the Visa, Visa Electron, Interlink, and PLUS brands. Visa/PLUS is one of the largest global ATM networks. V facilitates digital payments across more than 200 countries and territories. It has 3.6 billion cards in circulation, about 16% of the total number of cards in circulation globally. It processes a mindboggling amount of transactions – 206 billion payment transactions and a total transaction volume of $12.5 trillion in 2020 – an undisputed dominance of the payment network.</p><p><blockquote>第二张图表显示，V作为该领域的领导者，将从这一长期趋势中受益最多。V是全球最大的零售电子支付网络，提供处理服务和支付产品平台。这包括信用卡、借记卡、预付费和商业支付，这些支付以Visa、Visa Electron、Interlink和PLUS品牌提供。Visa/PLUS是全球最大的ATM网络之一。V为200多个国家和地区的数字支付提供便利。它拥有36亿张流通卡，约占全球流通卡总数的16%。它处理了令人难以置信的交易量——2060亿笔支付交易，2020年总交易额为12.5万亿美元——这是支付网络无可争议的主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e261998de072e355b6f039912d0f1453\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/036bc8c94696fcfd8ed3403b699534c6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"318\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Visa USA.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：美国签证。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, it is unlikely that such dominance would change in the future (barring any major regulation or antitrust legislation change) due to the so-called \"network effects\". The network effects refer to the fact that the value of certain products or services increases as more people use them. In other words, certain networks become increasingly more valuable as they become bigger. Not every network enjoys this magic feature, and as a matter of fact, most networks suffer a diminishing marginal rate of return – i.e., the additional return decreases as the network becomes bigger – as to be elaborated later. A chain restaurant network is an example. As the network becomes larger, the nodes begin to compete against each other for customers and the return diminishes.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于所谓的“网络效应”，这种主导地位在未来不太可能改变（除非任何重大监管或反托拉斯法发生变化）。网络效应是指某些产品或服务的价值随着更多人使用而增加。换句话说，某些网络随着规模的扩大而变得越来越有价值。并不是每个网络都享有这种神奇的特性，事实上，大多数网络的边际回报率是递减的——即，额外回报随着网络变大而减少——这将在后面详细说明。连锁餐厅网络就是一个例子。随着网络变得更大，节点开始相互竞争客户，回报减少。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But certain networks, like the services V provides, enjoy this magic trait – the network becomes more profitable as it becomes bigger. There is nothing new about the concept. It was true of railways, telephones, and fax machines. All these examples share these common traits: A) the larger the network becomes, the more valuable it becomes (one segment of a railway linking city A and B is far more valuable when this segment also links to other railways linking other cities); and B) the larger the network becomes, the higher the switching cost (if everyone uses a fax machine and you do not want to use one, good luck to you).</p><p><blockquote>但某些网络，如V提供的服务，享有这种神奇的特性——网络越大，利润就越高。这个概念没有什么新意。铁路、电话和传真机都是如此。所有这些例子都有这些共同的特征：a）网络变得越大，它就变得越有价值（当连接城市A和B的铁路的一段也连接到连接其他城市的其他铁路时，这段铁路的价值要高得多）；B）网络越大，交换成本就越高（如果每个人都使用传真机，而你不想使用传真机，祝你好运）。</blockquote></p><p> Again, there is nothing new about the concept. But the internet age dramatically amplified the potency of the network effects. Once a lead is established – for whatever the reason – the network effects would just kick in, take over, and compound itself.</p><p><blockquote>同样，这个概念没有什么新意。但是互联网时代极大地放大了网络效应的威力。一旦建立了线索——不管出于什么原因——网络效应就会开始发挥作用，接管并自我复合。</blockquote></p><p> It is a self-sustaining positive feedback loop: more users in this network will lead to more convenience, better efficiency, lower cost, which will make the network even better and more valuable for its users and clients, which will, in turn, attract more new users and clients to join and make it harder for existing users to leave, which again will lead back to more users and an even larger network. And such feedback will be reflected in a very high level of return on capital employed (“ROCE”) as to be seen later.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个自我维持的正反馈循环：这个网络中更多的用户将带来更多的便利、更好的效率、更低的成本，这将使网络对其用户和客户更好、更有价值，这反过来将吸引更多的新用户和客户加入，并使现有用户更难离开，这将再次导致更多的用户和更大的网络。这种反馈将反映在非常高的已用资本回报率（“ROCE”）中，这将在后面看到。</blockquote></p><p> Unfortunately, like all good things eventually run to an end, so do the benefits of the above network effects. At some point, gravity always catches up, and return begins to diminish. In the railway example, if enough railways have already been built to link all cities with high population density, building the next segment would suffer a diminished return now. In the fax machine example, if every office already has one, adding a second one to each office would also suffer a diminished return.</p><p><blockquote>不幸的是，就像所有美好的事情最终都会结束一样，上述网络效应的好处也会结束。在某些时候，重力总是赶上来，回报开始减少。在铁路的例子中，如果已经建造了足够多的铁路来连接所有人口密度高的城市，那么现在建造下一段铁路的回报将会减少。在传真机的例子中，如果每个办公室都已经有一台传真机，那么在每个办公室增加第二台传真机也会减少回报。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, as investors, we do not only need to examine the ROCE, but also equally importantly, to examine the marginal return. Because the marginal return tells us if the business is still in a scalable stage, or if the business has already passed the tipping point of scalability and begins to see a diminishing return. In another word, MROCE let us see if the gravity of diminishing return has caught up yet or not.</p><p><blockquote>因此，作为投资者，我们不仅要考察ROCE，同样重要的是要考察边际收益。因为边际回报告诉我们业务是否仍处于可扩展阶段，或者业务是否已经过了可扩展性的临界点，开始出现收益递减。换句话说，MROCE让我们看看收益递减的严重性是否已经赶上了。</blockquote></p><p> And the remainder of this article will examine both aspects next.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，本文的其余部分将研究这两个方面。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Return on capital employed (“ROCE”)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>已动用资本回报率（“ROCE”）</b></blockquote></p><p> ROCE stands for the return on capital employed. Note that ROCE is different from the return on equity (and more fundamental and important in my view). ROCE considers the return of capital ACTUALLY employed, and therefore provides insight into how effectively the business uses its capital to earn a profit. Readers interested in the details of the ROCE analysis can find them in my&nbsp;earlier article. Here I will just summarize the results in the chart below. In these results, I considered the following items capital actually employed A) Working capital (including payables, receivables, inventory), B) Gross Property, Plant, and Equipment, C) Research and development expenses are capitalized, and D) the intangible book value, mainly consisting of intellectual property and patents for such a business.</p><p><blockquote>ROCE代表已用资本回报率。请注意，ROCE不同于股本回报率（在我看来更基本、更重要）。ROCE考虑实际使用的资本回报，因此可以深入了解企业如何有效地利用其资本赚取利润。对ROCE分析细节感兴趣的读者可以在我之前的文章中找到。在这里，我将在下面的图表中总结结果。在这些结果中，我考虑了实际使用的以下项目资本a)营运资本（包括应付账款、应收账款、存货），B)不动产、厂房和设备总额，C)资本化的研发费用，以及D)无形账面价值，主要包括此类业务的知识产权和专利。</blockquote></p><p> As seen, it was able to maintain an astronomical level of ROCE over the past decade: on average ~103%. To put things in perspective, the next chart compares V’s ROCE against the FAAMG stocks – a group of businesses that exploits the network effects to the extreme. As can be seen, V earns a very competitive ROCE among them – only second to Apple (AAPL). Every $1 of earning reinvested will fuel more than $1 of additional future earnings growth on average.</p><p><blockquote>正如所见，它在过去十年中能够保持天文数字的ROCE水平：平均约103%。为了正确看待事情，下图将V的ROCE与FAAMG股票进行了比较，FAAMG股票是一组将网络效应发挥到极致的企业。可以看出，V在其中获得了极具竞争力的ROCE——仅次于苹果(AAPL)。平均而言，每1美元的收益再投资将推动超过1美元的未来收益增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/877e3bb73de3e6c4fbab1a0133f74464\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"380\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f25b4c6dc0c7ee738ac345c3888ae11\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Introduction to marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”)</p><p><blockquote>边际资本回报率（“边际资本回报率”）简介</blockquote></p><p> In addition to ROCE, an equally important concept is the marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the most two important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the most fundamental two aspects of the same central issue of profitability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is SO FAR. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.</p><p><blockquote>除了ROCE之外，一个同样重要的概念是边际资本回报率（“MROCE”）。对我来说，ROCE和MROCE是分析企业最重要的两个指标。它们揭示了盈利能力这个核心问题的最基本的两个方面。ROCE告诉我们该业务迄今为止的盈利能力。MROCE深入了解了盈利能力可能走向的方向。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A bit of background and introduction for readers who are new to the concept. For readers familiar with the concept already, definitely skip this section. From what I’ve learned, the legendary economist John Maynard Keynes first explicitly expressed this concept, although people before him have observed and thought about it for some time already. What the concept tries to capture is a basic law in economic activities: the law of diminishing returns. Warren Buffett likes to say that interest rate acts like gravity on all economic activities. Well, diminishing returns act like gravity on all economic activities too, if not more so, as long as human nature does not change in any fundamental way.</p><p><blockquote>为不熟悉这个概念的读者提供一点背景和介绍。对于已经熟悉这个概念的读者来说，一定要跳过这一部分。据我所知，传奇经济学家约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯首先明确表达了这个概念，尽管在他之前的人已经观察和思考了一段时间。这个概念试图捕捉的是经济活动中的一个基本规律：收益递减规律。沃伦·巴菲特喜欢说，利率就像重力一样影响所有经济活动。嗯，只要人性不发生任何根本性的变化，收益递减对所有经济活动也有引力作用，如果不是更大的话。</blockquote></p><p> The next chart illustrates the concept. As long as shareholders are seeking profit, a public business will first invest its money at projects with the highest possible rate of return (i.e., picking the lowest hanging apples first or getting the most bang for the buck first). Therefore, the first batch of available resources is invested at a high rate of return – the highest the business can possibly identify. The second batch of money will have to be invested at a somewhat lower rate of return since the best ideas have been taken by the first batch of resources already, and so on. The last batch of money invested may earn a rate of return that is only above the cost of capital. And finally, the end result is a declining MROCE curve as shown.</p><p><blockquote>下一个图表说明了这个概念。只要股东寻求利润，上市企业就会首先将资金投资于回报率最高的项目（即，先摘最低的苹果或先获得最大的回报）。因此，第一批可用资源的投资回报率很高——企业可能确定的最高回报率。第二批资金将不得不以较低的回报率进行投资，因为最好的想法已经被第一批资源采纳了，等等。最后一批投入的钱可能会获得仅高于资金成本的回报率。最后，最终结果是如图所示下降的MROCE曲线。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1cd59ec1a6da411c303c2bbccaf2425\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"460\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The ROCE we normally talk about and companies report refers to the average of this curve – averaging the return on all batches of money invested. Obviously, the average is very useful information by itself. It tells us how efficiently the business has been converting resources into profit so far – but its limitation is that it only tells us the efficiency of the resources that have already been invested SO FAR. What is of equal importance to investors is the MROCE, which tells us how much incremental profit the business WILL generate when the next batch of resources are invested.</p><p><blockquote>我们通常谈论和公司报告的ROCE指的是这条曲线的平均值——平均所有批次投资的回报。显然，平均值本身就是非常有用的信息。它告诉我们企业到目前为止将资源转化为利润的效率——但它的局限性在于，它只告诉我们到目前为止已经投入的资源的效率。对投资者同样重要的是MROCE，它告诉我们下一批资源投入时，业务会产生多少增量利润。</blockquote></p><p> For investors, a dream business to invest in would be a business that enjoys a flat MROCE curve as shown by the solid blue line. This would be a business that is perfectly scalable. A business that earns a consistent and stable profit for every batch of resources invested. However, such a business is really only a dream business. I mentioned earlier that diminishing returns act like gravity on all economic activities - because they really do. There has been no business (at least not so far in human history) that can keep growing while at the same time maintaining a constant return on capital. At some point, gravity always catches up and the return begins to decline (as shown by the dashed blue line).</p><p><blockquote>对于投资者来说，梦想投资的企业是拥有平坦MROCE曲线的企业，如蓝色实线所示。这将是一个完全可扩展的业务。每投入一批资源都能获得持续稳定利润的企业。然而，这样的生意真的只是梦中生意。我之前提到过，收益递减对所有经济活动都有引力作用——因为它们确实如此。从来没有一个企业（至少在人类历史上没有）能够在保持资本回报率的同时保持增长。在某些时候，重力总是赶上来，回报开始下降（如蓝色虚线所示）。</blockquote></p><p> V’s MROCE</p><p><blockquote>V的MROCE</blockquote></p><p> So for investors, the next best deal is to invest in a business that A) has a high and stable ROCE, and B) that is still in the scalable stage (the gravity of diminishing return has not caught up yet). And as shown in the next chart, V seems to be such a business at such a stage.</p><p><blockquote>因此，对于投资者来说，下一个最好的交易是投资a）具有高且稳定的ROCE，B）仍处于可扩展阶段（回报递减的严重性尚未赶上）的企业。而如下图所示，V在这样一个阶段似乎就是这样一个业务。</blockquote></p><p> This chart shows the MROCE and ROCE for V over recent years. The ROCE data are the same as those shown in the previous section. The MROCE data are estimated by the following steps. First, the capital employed was calculated for each year. Second, the earnings were calculated each year. Third, then the incremental of capital employed year over year was calculated. Similarly, the incremental earnings year over year were also calculated. And finally, the ratio between the incremental earnings and incremental capital employed was calculated to approximate the MROCE. During years when there were large fluctuations in either the incremental earnings or the capital employed, a multi-year running average was taken to smooth the fluctuations.</p><p><blockquote>这张图表显示了近年来V的MROCE和ROCE。ROCE数据与上一节所示相同。通过以下步骤估计MROCE数据。首先，计算每年使用的资本。其次，每年计算收益。第三，计算每年使用的资本增量。同样，还计算了同比增量收益。最后，计算增量收益和增量资本使用之间的比率以近似MROCE。在增量盈利或资本使用波动较大的年度，采用多年运行平均法来平滑波动。</blockquote></p><p> Before we began to interpret the results, let me first clarify the difficulties of analyzing marginal return on capital and the limitations of the approach I used here. Firstly, it is just mathematically much harder to estimate the rate of change (e.g., which is what MROCE is essentially is) than the average change (which is what ROCE is essentially is). Estimating the latter involves dividing two large numbers and the uncertainties are small. Estimating the former requires dividing two small numbers and the uncertainties in the financial data can be magnified. Secondly, some capital investments in a business can take multiple years (more than 3 years) to bear fruit (or to fail). Therefore, isolating and tracking the marginal return produced by investments made in a given year is inherently difficult. Although most of the projects should begin to show results (either good or bad) in 3 years and this approach should be able to capture the dominating trend of marginal return.</p><p><blockquote>在我们开始解释结果之前，让我首先澄清分析边际资本回报率的困难以及我在这里使用的方法的局限性。首先，从数学上讲，估计变化率（例如，MROCE本质上是什么）比平均变化（ROCE本质上是什么）要困难得多。估计后者需要除以两个大数，不确定性很小。估计前者需要除以两个小数字，财务数据中的不确定性可以被放大。其次，对企业的一些资本投资可能需要多年（超过3年）才能取得成果（或失败）。因此，隔离和跟踪某一年投资产生的边际回报本质上是困难的。尽管大多数项目应该在3年内开始显示结果（无论是好的还是坏的），并且这种方法应该能够捕捉边际回报的主导趋势。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> With the above understanding, let’s look at the results closely. First, note that the extraordinarily high MROCE during the early part of the decade again provides a strong illustration of the network effects and the secular trend that support the business at a fundamental level. The business model is just too good.</p><p><blockquote>有了以上的了解，我们来仔细看看结果。首先，请注意，本世纪初极高的MROCE再次有力地说明了从根本上支持业务的网络效应和长期趋势。商业模式太好了。</blockquote></p><p> The results in the chart also show that at this stage, V has been actually able to maintain an MROCE that actually is higher than the average ROCE in recent years. As seen, the ROCE has been on average 103% in recent years, and the MROCE has been on average 157%. It was significantly lower than the 350+% level in the earlier part of the decade – gravity always tries to catch up. But it is still higher than the ROCE by a good margin. And the gap is more than 50%, too large to be caused by the uncertainties in the financial data and rounding off errors. So this result suggests that V has not entered a stage of diminishing return yet - gravity has not caught up yet. And if the current MROCE continues, V’s ROCE will maintain its current high level or even further expand.</p><p><blockquote>图表中的结果还显示，在这个阶段，V实际上能够保持实际上高于近年来平均ROCE的MROCE。可以看出，近年来ROCE平均为103%，MROCE平均为157%。这明显低于本世纪初350%以上的水平——重力总是试图迎头赶上。但仍远高于ROCE。而且差距超过50%，太大了，不可能是财务数据的不确定性和舍入误差造成的。所以这个结果表明V还没有进入收益递减阶段——重力还没有赶上。而如果目前的MROCE继续下去，V的ROCE将维持目前的高水平，甚至进一步扩大。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cea9c214b6d0dd15d8f9c5c1392272e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha data.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha数据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> After the above discussion of its profitability sustainability, let’s look at the valuation. At its current price levels, V’s PE is about 44x and FW PE is about 39.6x. The valuation is both high in absolute terms and also high in relative terms. For example, when compared to the FAAMG pack, V’s current valuation is only lower than Amazon (AMZN) in terms of the PE multiple and higher than all the others.</p><p><blockquote>以上讨论完其盈利持续性，我们再来看看估值。在目前的价格水平上，V的PE约为44倍，FW PE约为39.6倍。估值无论是绝对值还是相对值都很高。例如，与FAAMG pack相比，V目前的估值仅低于亚马逊(AMZN)的市盈率，高于所有其他公司。</blockquote></p><p> It is not that meaningful to discuss valuation in isolation and without adjusting for the quality of the business. The next chart therefore also compares V valuation adjusted for its ROCE with its peers. If you are familiar with Buffett’s holdings, you would recognize that the stocks in this chart represent some of the large BRK holdings.</p><p><blockquote>如果不根据业务质量进行调整，孤立地讨论估值是没有意义的。因此，下一张图表还将根据ROCE调整后的V估值与同行进行了比较。如果您熟悉巴菲特的持股，您就会认识到这张图表中的股票代表了BRK的一些大型持股。</blockquote></p><p> I am not sure what the picture will look like as we add more data points on this chart (I do plan to organize my notes on other BRK major holdings and add more data points onto this plot). But with the few data points I have now, I cannot help drawing/seeing the green line - what I call a Buffett value line. It is a line linking AbbVie Inc (ABBV) and AAPL - a good business at a good price and a high-quality business at a high price. So from a value investor point of view, it only makes sense to make investments along this line or below it. Because investment along this line or below represents a trade-off between quality and price that is equivalent or better than ABBV or AAPL. It makes no sense to invest above this line, as anything above this line represents an inferior trade-off between quality and price - we'd be better off just investing in ABBV and AAPL.</p><p><blockquote>我不确定当我们在这张图表上添加更多数据点时，情况会是什么样子（我确实计划组织我对其他BRK主要持股的笔记，并在这张图表上添加更多数据点）。但凭借我现在掌握的几个数据点，我忍不住画出/看到了绿线——我看涨期权的巴菲特价值线。它是连接艾伯维公司（ABBV）和苹果公司的一条线——物美价廉的好企业和高价的高质量企业。因此，从价值投资者的角度来看，只有沿着这条线或低于这条线进行投资才有意义。因为沿着这条线或以下的投资代表了质量和价格之间的权衡，相当于或优于ABBV或AAPL。投资高于这条线是没有意义的，因为高于这条线的任何东西都代表着质量和价格之间的劣质权衡——我们最好只投资ABBV和AAPL。</blockquote></p><p> As you can see, V is currently way above the green line, showing a valuation that is only expensive by itself, but also when adjusted for its ROCE – even if it is superb ROCE.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，V目前远高于绿线，表明其估值不仅本身昂贵，而且在根据其ROCE进行调整后也很昂贵——即使它的ROCE非常出色。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e9fbfdb9a53f0dac2386fcfaf067800\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha data.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha数据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Catalysts and risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>催化剂和风险</b></blockquote></p><p> The long-term catalyst is the trend of digital transactions as mentioned at the beginning of the article. In my view, this trend is unstoppable. The expansive deployment of e-commerce platforms will further accelerate this transition.</p><p><blockquote>长期催化剂是文章开头提到的数字化交易趋势。在我看来，这个趋势是不可阻挡的。电子商务平台的广泛部署将进一步加速这一转变。</blockquote></p><p> The most significant catalyst and also a risk at the same time in the near term is the direction and the pace of the economic recovery. If economic activities and especially travel activities resume to their normal level, V will benefit significantly, as commented by the CFO:</p><p><blockquote>短期内最重要的催化剂，同时也是风险，是经济复苏的方向和步伐。正如首席财务官所评论的，如果经济活动，尤其是旅游活动恢复到正常水平，V将受益匪浅：</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   \"We have seen immediate impacts since popular travel destinations opened their borders. Greece opened borders in April, and inbound card-present spend rose nearly 30 points by the end of June relative to 2019 levels. France opened on June 9, and inbound card-present volumes rose nearly 20 points by the end of June relative to 2019 ... Since April, card-present cross-border spend in Mexico from the U.S. rose nearly 50 points to over 170% of 2019 levels.\"    <i>Vasant Prabhu, Visa CFO (Q3 FY21 earnings call)</i>  In terms of risks, I see a valuation risk here as aforementioned. In terms of business fundamentals, I really do not see any risks in the near- or even long-term. The economic recovery from the pandemic mentioned above is not really a fundamental risk in my view. Even if it develops in the wrong direction and/or at a pace slower than expected, it is at most a temporary hiccup for V. The business model is too robust and too scalable. In the really long term, we can only speculate. The disruption from Fintechs and Crypto currency must be a potential risk in the long term. I suggest readers interested in these discussions to read the analysis published by&nbsp;Natalie Koo.</p><p><blockquote>“自从热门旅游目的地开放边境以来，我们已经看到了直接的影响。希腊在4月份开放了边境，到6月底，入境持卡消费相对于2019年的水平增长了近30个百分点。法国于6月9日开放，截至6月底，入境持卡量相对于2019年增长了近20个百分点...自4月份以来，从美国到墨西哥的持卡跨境消费增长了近50个百分点，达到2019年水平的170%以上。”<i>Vasant Prabhu，Visa首席财务官（2021财年第三季度看涨期权收益）</i>就风险而言，我看到了前面提到的估值风险。就业务基本面而言，我确实认为短期甚至长期没有任何风险。在我看来，上述疫情的经济复苏并不是真正的根本性风险。即使它朝着错误的方向发展和/或以比预期更慢的速度发展，对V来说也最多是暂时的打嗝。商业模式太健壮，可扩展性太强。从真正的长期来看，我们只能猜测。从长远来看，金融科技和加密货币的破坏肯定是一个潜在的风险。我建议对这些讨论感兴趣的读者阅读Natalie Koo发表的分析。</blockquote></p><p> Conclusion and final thought</p><p><blockquote>结论和最后的思考</blockquote></p><p> This article analyzes Visa Inc (V), with a focus on its profit sustainability and scalability. This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit Sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the most two important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the two most fundamental aspects of the same central issue of profit Sustainability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is SO FAR. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.</p><p><blockquote>本文分析Visa Inc(V)，重点关注其利润可持续性和可扩展性。该分析考察了利润可持续性最重要的两个方面：已用资本回报率(“ROCE”)和已用资本边际回报率(“MROCE”)。对我来说，ROCE和MROCE是分析企业最重要的两个指标。它们揭示了利润可持续性这一核心问题的两个最基本的方面。ROCE告诉我们该业务迄今为止的盈利能力。MROCE深入了解了盈利能力可能走向的方向。</blockquote></p><p> The results show that:</p><p><blockquote>结果表明：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>V not only earns a consistently high ROCE in the past but is still perfectly scalable at its current stage, indicating sustainable profit ahead.</li>  <li>The ROCE has been on average about 103% and compares very favorably against overachievers which are exemplary scalable stocks.</li>  <li>And the MROCE has been on average 157% in recent years. So this result suggests that V has not reached the stage of diminishing return yet - gravity has not caught up yet. It is truly impressive for a business at such a staggering scale (which processes $15 trillion of transaction volume last year) to still maintain perfect scalability.</li>  <li>Lastly, this article also discusses its valuation, especially valuation adjusted for ROCE compared to other stocks that enjoy superb scalability using what I call the Buffett value line. V is currently way above the value line, showing its valuation to be only expensive by itself, but also when adjusted for its ROCE – even if it is superb ROCE.</li> </ul> As such, my final verdict is that it is still a perfectly scalable business, but it is more than perfectly priced. Investment at this point will take some time, patience, and commitment for the growth to catch up with the valuation. It is only for long-term committed investors (with at least 5+ years of time horizon) who could hold to it and sit out any potential near-term valuation volatilities.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>V不仅在过去获得了持续较高的ROCE，而且在当前阶段仍然具有完美的可扩展性，表明未来将实现可持续利润。</li><li>ROCE平均约为103%，与表现优异的股票（典型的可扩展股票）相比非常有利。</li><li>近年来MROCE平均为157%。所以这个结果表明V还没有达到收益递减的阶段——重力还没有赶上。对于规模如此惊人（去年处理了15万亿美元的交易量）的企业来说，仍然保持完美的可扩展性确实令人印象深刻。</li><li>最后，本文还讨论了其估值，特别是与使用我看涨期权的巴菲特价值线享有卓越可扩展性的其他股票相比，根据ROCE调整的估值。V目前远高于价值线，这表明其估值不仅本身昂贵，而且在根据ROCE进行调整后也很昂贵——即使它的ROCE非常出色。</li></ul>因此，我的最终结论是，它仍然是一个完全可扩展的业务，但它的定价不仅仅是完美的。此时的投资需要一些时间、耐心和承诺，让增长赶上估值。它只适合长期承诺的投资者（至少有5年以上的时间范围），他们可以坚持下去，不受任何潜在的近期估值波动的影响。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459179-visa-stock-scalability-and-buffett-value-line\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"V":"Visa"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459179-visa-stock-scalability-and-buffett-value-line","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174273121","content_text":"Summary\n\nThis article analyzes Visa from the perspective of its profit sustainability and scalability.\nThis analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and the marginal efficiency of capital.\nThe results show that V not only earns a consistently high ROCE in the past but is still perfectly scalable at its current stage, indicating sustainable profit ahead.\nLastly, this article also discusses its valuation, especially valuation adjusted for ROCE compared to other stocks that enjoy superb scalability using what I call the Buffett value line.\n\nJustin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nInvestment thesis\nThis article analyzes Visa Inc (V), with a focus on its profit sustainability and scalability. This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit Sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the most two important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the two most fundamental aspects of the same central issue of profit Sustainability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is SO FAR. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.\nThe results show that V not only earns a consistently high ROCE in the past but is still perfectly scalable at its current stage, indicating sustainable profit ahead. It is truly impressive for a business at such a staggering scale to maintain perfect scalability. Lastly, this article also discusses its valuation, especially valuation adjusted for ROCE and valuation compared to the other stocks that are exemplary scalable stocks (such as the FAAMG stocks and Buffett style stocks).\nThe moat and the network effects\nV’s moat is in its scale and scalability, best demonstrated in the following two charts. The first chart shows the number of credit, debit, and prepaid cards in circulation worldwide from 2017 to 2019, with forecasts for 2023 and 2025. In 2019, there were 22.8 billion credit, debit, and prepaid cards in circulation worldwide. This figure is set to reach 29.31 billion by 2023, a 28% increase from the 2019 level. This figure will further increase to surpass 30 billion by 2025, a 34% increase from the 2019 level. In other words, the total cards in circulation will increase by more than 1/3 by 2025. The trend of digital transactions is unstoppable.\nThe second chart shows that V, as the leading player in this space, will benefit the most from this secular trend. V is the world’s largest retail electronic payments network providing processing services and payment product platforms. This includes credit, debit, prepaid, and commercial payments, which are offered under the Visa, Visa Electron, Interlink, and PLUS brands. Visa/PLUS is one of the largest global ATM networks. V facilitates digital payments across more than 200 countries and territories. It has 3.6 billion cards in circulation, about 16% of the total number of cards in circulation globally. It processes a mindboggling amount of transactions – 206 billion payment transactions and a total transaction volume of $12.5 trillion in 2020 – an undisputed dominance of the payment network.\nSource: Statista\nSource: Visa USA.\nFurthermore, it is unlikely that such dominance would change in the future (barring any major regulation or antitrust legislation change) due to the so-called \"network effects\". The network effects refer to the fact that the value of certain products or services increases as more people use them. In other words, certain networks become increasingly more valuable as they become bigger. Not every network enjoys this magic feature, and as a matter of fact, most networks suffer a diminishing marginal rate of return – i.e., the additional return decreases as the network becomes bigger – as to be elaborated later. A chain restaurant network is an example. As the network becomes larger, the nodes begin to compete against each other for customers and the return diminishes.\nBut certain networks, like the services V provides, enjoy this magic trait – the network becomes more profitable as it becomes bigger. There is nothing new about the concept. It was true of railways, telephones, and fax machines. All these examples share these common traits: A) the larger the network becomes, the more valuable it becomes (one segment of a railway linking city A and B is far more valuable when this segment also links to other railways linking other cities); and B) the larger the network becomes, the higher the switching cost (if everyone uses a fax machine and you do not want to use one, good luck to you).\nAgain, there is nothing new about the concept. But the internet age dramatically amplified the potency of the network effects. Once a lead is established – for whatever the reason – the network effects would just kick in, take over, and compound itself.\nIt is a self-sustaining positive feedback loop: more users in this network will lead to more convenience, better efficiency, lower cost, which will make the network even better and more valuable for its users and clients, which will, in turn, attract more new users and clients to join and make it harder for existing users to leave, which again will lead back to more users and an even larger network. And such feedback will be reflected in a very high level of return on capital employed (“ROCE”) as to be seen later.\nUnfortunately, like all good things eventually run to an end, so do the benefits of the above network effects. At some point, gravity always catches up, and return begins to diminish. In the railway example, if enough railways have already been built to link all cities with high population density, building the next segment would suffer a diminished return now. In the fax machine example, if every office already has one, adding a second one to each office would also suffer a diminished return.\nTherefore, as investors, we do not only need to examine the ROCE, but also equally importantly, to examine the marginal return. Because the marginal return tells us if the business is still in a scalable stage, or if the business has already passed the tipping point of scalability and begins to see a diminishing return. In another word, MROCE let us see if the gravity of diminishing return has caught up yet or not.\nAnd the remainder of this article will examine both aspects next.\nReturn on capital employed (“ROCE”)\nROCE stands for the return on capital employed. Note that ROCE is different from the return on equity (and more fundamental and important in my view). ROCE considers the return of capital ACTUALLY employed, and therefore provides insight into how effectively the business uses its capital to earn a profit. Readers interested in the details of the ROCE analysis can find them in my earlier article. Here I will just summarize the results in the chart below. In these results, I considered the following items capital actually employed A) Working capital (including payables, receivables, inventory), B) Gross Property, Plant, and Equipment, C) Research and development expenses are capitalized, and D) the intangible book value, mainly consisting of intellectual property and patents for such a business.\nAs seen, it was able to maintain an astronomical level of ROCE over the past decade: on average ~103%. To put things in perspective, the next chart compares V’s ROCE against the FAAMG stocks – a group of businesses that exploits the network effects to the extreme. As can be seen, V earns a very competitive ROCE among them – only second to Apple (AAPL). Every $1 of earning reinvested will fuel more than $1 of additional future earnings growth on average.\nSource: author and Seeking Alpha.\nSource: author and Seeking Alpha.\nIntroduction to marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”)\nIn addition to ROCE, an equally important concept is the marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the most two important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the most fundamental two aspects of the same central issue of profitability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is SO FAR. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.\nA bit of background and introduction for readers who are new to the concept. For readers familiar with the concept already, definitely skip this section. From what I’ve learned, the legendary economist John Maynard Keynes first explicitly expressed this concept, although people before him have observed and thought about it for some time already. What the concept tries to capture is a basic law in economic activities: the law of diminishing returns. Warren Buffett likes to say that interest rate acts like gravity on all economic activities. Well, diminishing returns act like gravity on all economic activities too, if not more so, as long as human nature does not change in any fundamental way.\nThe next chart illustrates the concept. As long as shareholders are seeking profit, a public business will first invest its money at projects with the highest possible rate of return (i.e., picking the lowest hanging apples first or getting the most bang for the buck first). Therefore, the first batch of available resources is invested at a high rate of return – the highest the business can possibly identify. The second batch of money will have to be invested at a somewhat lower rate of return since the best ideas have been taken by the first batch of resources already, and so on. The last batch of money invested may earn a rate of return that is only above the cost of capital. And finally, the end result is a declining MROCE curve as shown.\nSource: author\nThe ROCE we normally talk about and companies report refers to the average of this curve – averaging the return on all batches of money invested. Obviously, the average is very useful information by itself. It tells us how efficiently the business has been converting resources into profit so far – but its limitation is that it only tells us the efficiency of the resources that have already been invested SO FAR. What is of equal importance to investors is the MROCE, which tells us how much incremental profit the business WILL generate when the next batch of resources are invested.\nFor investors, a dream business to invest in would be a business that enjoys a flat MROCE curve as shown by the solid blue line. This would be a business that is perfectly scalable. A business that earns a consistent and stable profit for every batch of resources invested. However, such a business is really only a dream business. I mentioned earlier that diminishing returns act like gravity on all economic activities - because they really do. There has been no business (at least not so far in human history) that can keep growing while at the same time maintaining a constant return on capital. At some point, gravity always catches up and the return begins to decline (as shown by the dashed blue line).\nV’s MROCE\nSo for investors, the next best deal is to invest in a business that A) has a high and stable ROCE, and B) that is still in the scalable stage (the gravity of diminishing return has not caught up yet). And as shown in the next chart, V seems to be such a business at such a stage.\nThis chart shows the MROCE and ROCE for V over recent years. The ROCE data are the same as those shown in the previous section. The MROCE data are estimated by the following steps. First, the capital employed was calculated for each year. Second, the earnings were calculated each year. Third, then the incremental of capital employed year over year was calculated. Similarly, the incremental earnings year over year were also calculated. And finally, the ratio between the incremental earnings and incremental capital employed was calculated to approximate the MROCE. During years when there were large fluctuations in either the incremental earnings or the capital employed, a multi-year running average was taken to smooth the fluctuations.\nBefore we began to interpret the results, let me first clarify the difficulties of analyzing marginal return on capital and the limitations of the approach I used here. Firstly, it is just mathematically much harder to estimate the rate of change (e.g., which is what MROCE is essentially is) than the average change (which is what ROCE is essentially is). Estimating the latter involves dividing two large numbers and the uncertainties are small. Estimating the former requires dividing two small numbers and the uncertainties in the financial data can be magnified. Secondly, some capital investments in a business can take multiple years (more than 3 years) to bear fruit (or to fail). Therefore, isolating and tracking the marginal return produced by investments made in a given year is inherently difficult. Although most of the projects should begin to show results (either good or bad) in 3 years and this approach should be able to capture the dominating trend of marginal return.\nWith the above understanding, let’s look at the results closely. First, note that the extraordinarily high MROCE during the early part of the decade again provides a strong illustration of the network effects and the secular trend that support the business at a fundamental level. The business model is just too good.\nThe results in the chart also show that at this stage, V has been actually able to maintain an MROCE that actually is higher than the average ROCE in recent years. As seen, the ROCE has been on average 103% in recent years, and the MROCE has been on average 157%. It was significantly lower than the 350+% level in the earlier part of the decade – gravity always tries to catch up. But it is still higher than the ROCE by a good margin. And the gap is more than 50%, too large to be caused by the uncertainties in the financial data and rounding off errors. So this result suggests that V has not entered a stage of diminishing return yet - gravity has not caught up yet. And if the current MROCE continues, V’s ROCE will maintain its current high level or even further expand.\nSource: author and Seeking Alpha data.\nValuation\nAfter the above discussion of its profitability sustainability, let’s look at the valuation. At its current price levels, V’s PE is about 44x and FW PE is about 39.6x. The valuation is both high in absolute terms and also high in relative terms. For example, when compared to the FAAMG pack, V’s current valuation is only lower than Amazon (AMZN) in terms of the PE multiple and higher than all the others.\nIt is not that meaningful to discuss valuation in isolation and without adjusting for the quality of the business. The next chart therefore also compares V valuation adjusted for its ROCE with its peers. If you are familiar with Buffett’s holdings, you would recognize that the stocks in this chart represent some of the large BRK holdings.\nI am not sure what the picture will look like as we add more data points on this chart (I do plan to organize my notes on other BRK major holdings and add more data points onto this plot). But with the few data points I have now, I cannot help drawing/seeing the green line - what I call a Buffett value line. It is a line linking AbbVie Inc (ABBV) and AAPL - a good business at a good price and a high-quality business at a high price. So from a value investor point of view, it only makes sense to make investments along this line or below it. Because investment along this line or below represents a trade-off between quality and price that is equivalent or better than ABBV or AAPL. It makes no sense to invest above this line, as anything above this line represents an inferior trade-off between quality and price - we'd be better off just investing in ABBV and AAPL.\nAs you can see, V is currently way above the green line, showing a valuation that is only expensive by itself, but also when adjusted for its ROCE – even if it is superb ROCE.\nSource: author and Seeking Alpha data.\nCatalysts and risks\nThe long-term catalyst is the trend of digital transactions as mentioned at the beginning of the article. In my view, this trend is unstoppable. The expansive deployment of e-commerce platforms will further accelerate this transition.\nThe most significant catalyst and also a risk at the same time in the near term is the direction and the pace of the economic recovery. If economic activities and especially travel activities resume to their normal level, V will benefit significantly, as commented by the CFO:\n\n \"We have seen immediate impacts since popular travel destinations opened their borders. Greece opened borders in April, and inbound card-present spend rose nearly 30 points by the end of June relative to 2019 levels. France opened on June 9, and inbound card-present volumes rose nearly 20 points by the end of June relative to 2019 ... Since April, card-present cross-border spend in Mexico from the U.S. rose nearly 50 points to over 170% of 2019 levels.\"\n\n\nVasant Prabhu, Visa CFO (Q3 FY21 earnings call)\n\nIn terms of risks, I see a valuation risk here as aforementioned. In terms of business fundamentals, I really do not see any risks in the near- or even long-term. The economic recovery from the pandemic mentioned above is not really a fundamental risk in my view. Even if it develops in the wrong direction and/or at a pace slower than expected, it is at most a temporary hiccup for V. The business model is too robust and too scalable. In the really long term, we can only speculate. The disruption from Fintechs and Crypto currency must be a potential risk in the long term. I suggest readers interested in these discussions to read the analysis published by Natalie Koo.\nConclusion and final thought\nThis article analyzes Visa Inc (V), with a focus on its profit sustainability and scalability. This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit Sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the most two important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the two most fundamental aspects of the same central issue of profit Sustainability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is SO FAR. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.\nThe results show that:\n\nV not only earns a consistently high ROCE in the past but is still perfectly scalable at its current stage, indicating sustainable profit ahead.\nThe ROCE has been on average about 103% and compares very favorably against overachievers which are exemplary scalable stocks.\nAnd the MROCE has been on average 157% in recent years. So this result suggests that V has not reached the stage of diminishing return yet - gravity has not caught up yet. It is truly impressive for a business at such a staggering scale (which processes $15 trillion of transaction volume last year) to still maintain perfect scalability.\nLastly, this article also discusses its valuation, especially valuation adjusted for ROCE compared to other stocks that enjoy superb scalability using what I call the Buffett value line. V is currently way above the value line, showing its valuation to be only expensive by itself, but also when adjusted for its ROCE – even if it is superb ROCE.\n\nAs such, my final verdict is that it is still a perfectly scalable business, but it is more than perfectly priced. Investment at this point will take some time, patience, and commitment for the growth to catch up with the valuation. It is only for long-term committed investors (with at least 5+ years of time horizon) who could hold to it and sit out any potential near-term valuation volatilities.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"V":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2849,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":157264229,"gmtCreate":1625584203061,"gmtModify":1631890918768,"author":{"id":"3555822052484377","authorId":"3555822052484377","name":"Tongs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a38d6dcec089553bed2e9e999c283a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555822052484377","authorIdStr":"3555822052484377"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good job","listText":"Good job","text":"Good job","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/157264229","repostId":"2149936563","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":997,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150639722,"gmtCreate":1624895359166,"gmtModify":1631884926361,"author":{"id":"3555822052484377","authorId":"3555822052484377","name":"Tongs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a38d6dcec089553bed2e9e999c283a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555822052484377","authorIdStr":"3555822052484377"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MMAT\">$Meta Materials Inc.(MMAT)$</a>&nbsp;time to reverse and rocket pls..&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MMAT\">$Meta Materials Inc.(MMAT)$</a>&nbsp;time to reverse and rocket pls..&nbsp;","text":"$Meta Materials Inc.(MMAT)$ time to reverse and rocket pls..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150639722","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1052,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184796899,"gmtCreate":1623723921511,"gmtModify":1631894016192,"author":{"id":"3555822052484377","authorId":"3555822052484377","name":"Tongs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a38d6dcec089553bed2e9e999c283a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555822052484377","authorIdStr":"3555822052484377"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Looks good","listText":"Looks good","text":"Looks good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/184796899","repostId":"1167323938","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167323938","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623723810,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1167323938?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 10:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"My 3 Favorite Stocks Right Now<blockquote>我现在最喜欢的3只股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167323938","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"These companies make good long-term core holdings.\nStock investing starts with picking the right com","content":"<p>These companies make good long-term core holdings.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司是很好的长期核心持股。</blockquote></p><p> Stock investing&nbsp;starts with picking the right companies. Remember, finding the nextmeme stockbefore the price takes off and selling at the high point is virtually impossible without a time machine.</p><p><blockquote>股票投资从选择合适的公司开始。请记住，如果没有时间机器，在价格起飞之前找到下一只模因股票并在高点卖出几乎是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, I like buying shares in high-quality companies with strong market positions that have competitive advantages that aren't easily duplicated. Granted, this is easier said than done, but these companies fit the description.</p><p><blockquote>相反，我喜欢购买具有强大市场地位、具有不易复制的竞争优势的优质公司的股票。诚然，这说起来容易做起来难，但这些公司符合描述。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/effed739609f2c132bbfba134fe0ff19\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Amazon</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.亚马逊</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Amazon</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:AMZN)&nbsp;has become synonymous with e-commerce, but the company is much more than that. It has done this by sticking to its principles, which include focusing on the customer, innovating, and planning for the long term. You can see this through its popular Amazon Prime subscription service, which includes delivery charges, and hardware devices like Alexa and Kindle. There is also its fast-growing, higher-margin Amazon Web Services (AWS) business that provides cloud computing services.</p><p><blockquote><b>亚马逊</b>（纳斯达克：AMZN）已经成为电子商务的代名词，但该公司远不止于此。它通过坚持其原则做到了这一点，包括关注客户、创新和长期规划。你可以通过其广受欢迎的亚马逊Prime订阅服务（包括送货费）以及Alexa和Kindle等硬件设备看到这一点。还有其快速增长、利润更高的亚马逊网络服务（AWS）业务，提供云计算服务。</blockquote></p><p> Its presence is so dominant that Amazon completely changes an industry's dynamics when it decides to enter the fray. That's because it often provides cheap prices and fast delivery -- a compelling proposition. This happened when it pushed further into selling food and apparel, for instance. The company is also moving further into&nbsp;offering prescription drugs.</p><p><blockquote>它的存在如此占主导地位，以至于当亚马逊决定加入竞争时，它完全改变了一个行业的动态。这是因为它通常提供便宜的价格和快速的交货——这是一个令人信服的主张。例如，当它进一步进军食品和服装销售时，就会发生这种情况。该公司还进一步提供处方药。</blockquote></p><p> While its long-term focus means Amazon is willing to forgo short-term profits, the company is hugely profitable. Its operating profit grew from 2016's $4.2 billion to $22.9 billion last year. In the first quarter, the company's profit more than doubled from $4 billion to $8.8 billion.</p><p><blockquote>虽然长期关注意味着亚马逊愿意放弃短期利润，但该公司利润丰厚。其营业利润从2016年的42亿美元增长到去年的229亿美元。第一季度，该公司的利润从40亿美元增长到88亿美元，增长了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Costco</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.Costco</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Costco Wholesale</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:COST)&nbsp;has created quite a shopping experience. Known for its wide aisles, bulk items, and free samples, it has built a loyal and growing membership.</p><p><blockquote><b>好市多批发</b>（纳斯达克：COST）创造了相当不错的购物体验。它以其宽阔的过道、散装商品和免费样品而闻名，已经建立了忠诚且不断增长的会员。</blockquote></p><p> Costco's simple formula is hard to replicate: It focuses on high-quality merchandise and services, and sells them at low unit prices. Costco's paid members have grown from 47.6 million in 2016 to 58.1 million last year (the fiscal year ends on June 30). Meanwhile, its retention rate has hovered around 90%.</p><p><blockquote>Costco的简单公式很难复制：它专注于高质量的商品和服务，并以低单价出售。Costco的付费会员从2016年的4760万增长到去年的5810万（财年截至6月30日）。与此同时，其留存率一直徘徊在90%左右。</blockquote></p><p> With a focus on customer needs, it even has a generous return policy to help members have confidence in their purchases.</p><p><blockquote>专注于客户需求，它甚至有慷慨的退货政策，以帮助会员对他们的购买充满信心。</blockquote></p><p> Management also keeps an eye on improving results. It has had positive same-store sales (comps) for many years, including a 9% increase last year after excluding the effects of gasoline price changes and foreign currency exchange translation. Operating income grew from $3.7 billion to $5.4 billion over the last five years.</p><p><blockquote>管理层还关注改善结果。多年来，该公司的同店销售额(COMP)一直保持正增长，其中去年在排除汽油价格变化和外币兑换折算的影响后增长了9%。过去五年营业收入从37亿美元增长到54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Recent results also provide encouragement that management continues to execute. Comps increased by 15.2% for the first three quarters of 2021, and operating income grew by more than 26% to $4.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>最近的结果也鼓励管理层继续执行。2021年前三季度业绩增长15.2%，营业收入增长超过26%，达到44亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> While income investors can find higher yields than Costco's 0.8%, it does have a history of annually raising dividends. This includes increasing May's payment to $0.79 from the previous quarter's $0.70. But better still, the board of directors has declared large special dividends every few years. The most recent was a $10 payment last December.</p><p><blockquote>虽然收益投资者可以找到比Costco 0.8%更高的收益率，但它确实有每年提高股息的历史。这包括将5月份的付款从上一季度的0.70美元增加到0.79美元。但更好的是，董事会每隔几年就会宣布大笔特别股息。最近一次是去年12月支付的10美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Walmart</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.沃尔玛</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Walmart</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:WMT)&nbsp;has built itself into the world's largest retailer, serving more than 240 million customers every week. The company, which opened its first discount store nearly six decades ago, squeezes costs and passes these savings on to the customer. This allows Walmart to offer the lowest prices on its goods, making it difficult for competitors to keep up.</p><p><blockquote><b>沃尔玛</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：WMT）已成为全球最大的零售商，每周为超过2.4亿客户提供服务。该公司在近60年前开设了第一家折扣店，压缩成本并将这些节省下来的成本转嫁给顾客。这使得沃尔玛能够为其商品提供最低的价格，使竞争对手难以跟上。</blockquote></p><p> It isn't sitting still, either. It is keeping pace with online competitors, namely Amazon, by investing in technology to provide a seamless omnichannel experience to its shoppers. This includes launching the subscription service Walmart+, which provides delivery, gasoline discounts, and faster checkout at its stores.</p><p><blockquote>它也没有静止不动。它正在通过投资技术为购物者提供无缝的全渠道体验，与在线竞争对手亚马逊保持同步。这包括推出订阅服务Walmart+，该服务提供送货、汽油折扣和更快的商店结账速度。</blockquote></p><p> Last year, its adjusted revenue rose by 7.7% to $564.2 billion, driving operating income 9.3% higher to $23.4 billion. In the first quarter, revenue growth was about 2%, and management expects a low-single-digit percentage increase for the year. Its guidance calls for flattish operating income.</p><p><blockquote>去年，其调整后收入增长7.7%至5642亿美元，推动营业收入增长9.3%至234亿美元。第一季度收入增长约2%，管理层预计全年将实现低个位数百分比增长。其指导评级营业收入持平。</blockquote></p><p> While this outlook undoubtedly disappointed some investors, I'm not concerned. Management has its eyes on the long-term picture, and it is investing in technology to better serve its customers and remain a dominant retailer.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这一前景无疑让一些投资者感到失望，但我并不担心。管理层着眼于长远，正在投资技术，以更好地服务客户并保持零售商的主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> Walmart also offers a 1.6% yield, and it has also raised its quarterly dividend annually since initiating a payout in 1974. Already aDividend Aristocrat, it will become a Dividend King when the streak hits 50 years.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔玛还提供1.6%的收益率，自1974年开始派息以来，它还每年提高季度股息。它已经是股息贵族，当连胜达到50年时，它将成为股息之王。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> While these are three different companies in various stages, each is a strong addition to your portfolio. Adding them will give you a high-growth stock, a steady grower that tends to pay large dividends every few years, and a dominant retailer that continues to grow and regularly increase payments to shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这是处于不同阶段的三家不同公司，但每家公司都是您投资组合的有力补充。添加它们将为您提供一只高增长股票、一只往往每隔几年支付大量股息的稳定增长公司，以及一家持续增长并定期增加向股东支付的占主导地位的零售商。</blockquote></p><p> That's a winning combination that should make these core holdings a great addition to your portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个成功的组合，应该会使这些核心持股成为您投资组合的重要补充。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>My 3 Favorite Stocks Right Now<blockquote>我现在最喜欢的3只股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMy 3 Favorite Stocks Right Now<blockquote>我现在最喜欢的3只股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 10:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>These companies make good long-term core holdings.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司是很好的长期核心持股。</blockquote></p><p> Stock investing&nbsp;starts with picking the right companies. Remember, finding the nextmeme stockbefore the price takes off and selling at the high point is virtually impossible without a time machine.</p><p><blockquote>股票投资从选择合适的公司开始。请记住，如果没有时间机器，在价格起飞之前找到下一只模因股票并在高点卖出几乎是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, I like buying shares in high-quality companies with strong market positions that have competitive advantages that aren't easily duplicated. Granted, this is easier said than done, but these companies fit the description.</p><p><blockquote>相反，我喜欢购买具有强大市场地位、具有不易复制的竞争优势的优质公司的股票。诚然，这说起来容易做起来难，但这些公司符合描述。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/effed739609f2c132bbfba134fe0ff19\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Amazon</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.亚马逊</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Amazon</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:AMZN)&nbsp;has become synonymous with e-commerce, but the company is much more than that. It has done this by sticking to its principles, which include focusing on the customer, innovating, and planning for the long term. You can see this through its popular Amazon Prime subscription service, which includes delivery charges, and hardware devices like Alexa and Kindle. There is also its fast-growing, higher-margin Amazon Web Services (AWS) business that provides cloud computing services.</p><p><blockquote><b>亚马逊</b>（纳斯达克：AMZN）已经成为电子商务的代名词，但该公司远不止于此。它通过坚持其原则做到了这一点，包括关注客户、创新和长期规划。你可以通过其广受欢迎的亚马逊Prime订阅服务（包括送货费）以及Alexa和Kindle等硬件设备看到这一点。还有其快速增长、利润更高的亚马逊网络服务（AWS）业务，提供云计算服务。</blockquote></p><p> Its presence is so dominant that Amazon completely changes an industry's dynamics when it decides to enter the fray. That's because it often provides cheap prices and fast delivery -- a compelling proposition. This happened when it pushed further into selling food and apparel, for instance. The company is also moving further into&nbsp;offering prescription drugs.</p><p><blockquote>它的存在如此占主导地位，以至于当亚马逊决定加入竞争时，它完全改变了一个行业的动态。这是因为它通常提供便宜的价格和快速的交货——这是一个令人信服的主张。例如，当它进一步进军食品和服装销售时，就会发生这种情况。该公司还进一步提供处方药。</blockquote></p><p> While its long-term focus means Amazon is willing to forgo short-term profits, the company is hugely profitable. Its operating profit grew from 2016's $4.2 billion to $22.9 billion last year. In the first quarter, the company's profit more than doubled from $4 billion to $8.8 billion.</p><p><blockquote>虽然长期关注意味着亚马逊愿意放弃短期利润，但该公司利润丰厚。其营业利润从2016年的42亿美元增长到去年的229亿美元。第一季度，该公司的利润从40亿美元增长到88亿美元，增长了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Costco</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.Costco</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Costco Wholesale</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:COST)&nbsp;has created quite a shopping experience. Known for its wide aisles, bulk items, and free samples, it has built a loyal and growing membership.</p><p><blockquote><b>好市多批发</b>（纳斯达克：COST）创造了相当不错的购物体验。它以其宽阔的过道、散装商品和免费样品而闻名，已经建立了忠诚且不断增长的会员。</blockquote></p><p> Costco's simple formula is hard to replicate: It focuses on high-quality merchandise and services, and sells them at low unit prices. Costco's paid members have grown from 47.6 million in 2016 to 58.1 million last year (the fiscal year ends on June 30). Meanwhile, its retention rate has hovered around 90%.</p><p><blockquote>Costco的简单公式很难复制：它专注于高质量的商品和服务，并以低单价出售。Costco的付费会员从2016年的4760万增长到去年的5810万（财年截至6月30日）。与此同时，其留存率一直徘徊在90%左右。</blockquote></p><p> With a focus on customer needs, it even has a generous return policy to help members have confidence in their purchases.</p><p><blockquote>专注于客户需求，它甚至有慷慨的退货政策，以帮助会员对他们的购买充满信心。</blockquote></p><p> Management also keeps an eye on improving results. It has had positive same-store sales (comps) for many years, including a 9% increase last year after excluding the effects of gasoline price changes and foreign currency exchange translation. Operating income grew from $3.7 billion to $5.4 billion over the last five years.</p><p><blockquote>管理层还关注改善结果。多年来，该公司的同店销售额(COMP)一直保持正增长，其中去年在排除汽油价格变化和外币兑换折算的影响后增长了9%。过去五年营业收入从37亿美元增长到54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Recent results also provide encouragement that management continues to execute. Comps increased by 15.2% for the first three quarters of 2021, and operating income grew by more than 26% to $4.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>最近的结果也鼓励管理层继续执行。2021年前三季度业绩增长15.2%，营业收入增长超过26%，达到44亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> While income investors can find higher yields than Costco's 0.8%, it does have a history of annually raising dividends. This includes increasing May's payment to $0.79 from the previous quarter's $0.70. But better still, the board of directors has declared large special dividends every few years. The most recent was a $10 payment last December.</p><p><blockquote>虽然收益投资者可以找到比Costco 0.8%更高的收益率，但它确实有每年提高股息的历史。这包括将5月份的付款从上一季度的0.70美元增加到0.79美元。但更好的是，董事会每隔几年就会宣布大笔特别股息。最近一次是去年12月支付的10美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Walmart</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.沃尔玛</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Walmart</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:WMT)&nbsp;has built itself into the world's largest retailer, serving more than 240 million customers every week. The company, which opened its first discount store nearly six decades ago, squeezes costs and passes these savings on to the customer. This allows Walmart to offer the lowest prices on its goods, making it difficult for competitors to keep up.</p><p><blockquote><b>沃尔玛</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：WMT）已成为全球最大的零售商，每周为超过2.4亿客户提供服务。该公司在近60年前开设了第一家折扣店，压缩成本并将这些节省下来的成本转嫁给顾客。这使得沃尔玛能够为其商品提供最低的价格，使竞争对手难以跟上。</blockquote></p><p> It isn't sitting still, either. It is keeping pace with online competitors, namely Amazon, by investing in technology to provide a seamless omnichannel experience to its shoppers. This includes launching the subscription service Walmart+, which provides delivery, gasoline discounts, and faster checkout at its stores.</p><p><blockquote>它也没有静止不动。它正在通过投资技术为购物者提供无缝的全渠道体验，与在线竞争对手亚马逊保持同步。这包括推出订阅服务Walmart+，该服务提供送货、汽油折扣和更快的商店结账速度。</blockquote></p><p> Last year, its adjusted revenue rose by 7.7% to $564.2 billion, driving operating income 9.3% higher to $23.4 billion. In the first quarter, revenue growth was about 2%, and management expects a low-single-digit percentage increase for the year. Its guidance calls for flattish operating income.</p><p><blockquote>去年，其调整后收入增长7.7%至5642亿美元，推动营业收入增长9.3%至234亿美元。第一季度收入增长约2%，管理层预计全年将实现低个位数百分比增长。其指导评级营业收入持平。</blockquote></p><p> While this outlook undoubtedly disappointed some investors, I'm not concerned. Management has its eyes on the long-term picture, and it is investing in technology to better serve its customers and remain a dominant retailer.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这一前景无疑让一些投资者感到失望，但我并不担心。管理层着眼于长远，正在投资技术，以更好地服务客户并保持零售商的主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> Walmart also offers a 1.6% yield, and it has also raised its quarterly dividend annually since initiating a payout in 1974. Already aDividend Aristocrat, it will become a Dividend King when the streak hits 50 years.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔玛还提供1.6%的收益率，自1974年开始派息以来，它还每年提高季度股息。它已经是股息贵族，当连胜达到50年时，它将成为股息之王。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> While these are three different companies in various stages, each is a strong addition to your portfolio. Adding them will give you a high-growth stock, a steady grower that tends to pay large dividends every few years, and a dominant retailer that continues to grow and regularly increase payments to shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这是处于不同阶段的三家不同公司，但每家公司都是您投资组合的有力补充。添加它们将为您提供一只高增长股票、一只往往每隔几年支付大量股息的稳定增长公司，以及一家持续增长并定期增加向股东支付的占主导地位的零售商。</blockquote></p><p> That's a winning combination that should make these core holdings a great addition to your portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个成功的组合，应该会使这些核心持股成为您投资组合的重要补充。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/14/my-3-favorite-stocks-right-now/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊","WMT":"沃尔玛","COST":"好市多"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/14/my-3-favorite-stocks-right-now/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167323938","content_text":"These companies make good long-term core holdings.\nStock investing starts with picking the right companies. Remember, finding the nextmeme stockbefore the price takes off and selling at the high point is virtually impossible without a time machine.\nInstead, I like buying shares in high-quality companies with strong market positions that have competitive advantages that aren't easily duplicated. Granted, this is easier said than done, but these companies fit the description.\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\n1. Amazon\nAmazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) has become synonymous with e-commerce, but the company is much more than that. It has done this by sticking to its principles, which include focusing on the customer, innovating, and planning for the long term. You can see this through its popular Amazon Prime subscription service, which includes delivery charges, and hardware devices like Alexa and Kindle. There is also its fast-growing, higher-margin Amazon Web Services (AWS) business that provides cloud computing services.\nIts presence is so dominant that Amazon completely changes an industry's dynamics when it decides to enter the fray. That's because it often provides cheap prices and fast delivery -- a compelling proposition. This happened when it pushed further into selling food and apparel, for instance. The company is also moving further into offering prescription drugs.\nWhile its long-term focus means Amazon is willing to forgo short-term profits, the company is hugely profitable. Its operating profit grew from 2016's $4.2 billion to $22.9 billion last year. In the first quarter, the company's profit more than doubled from $4 billion to $8.8 billion.\n2. Costco\nCostco Wholesale (NASDAQ:COST) has created quite a shopping experience. Known for its wide aisles, bulk items, and free samples, it has built a loyal and growing membership.\nCostco's simple formula is hard to replicate: It focuses on high-quality merchandise and services, and sells them at low unit prices. Costco's paid members have grown from 47.6 million in 2016 to 58.1 million last year (the fiscal year ends on June 30). Meanwhile, its retention rate has hovered around 90%.\nWith a focus on customer needs, it even has a generous return policy to help members have confidence in their purchases.\nManagement also keeps an eye on improving results. It has had positive same-store sales (comps) for many years, including a 9% increase last year after excluding the effects of gasoline price changes and foreign currency exchange translation. Operating income grew from $3.7 billion to $5.4 billion over the last five years.\nRecent results also provide encouragement that management continues to execute. Comps increased by 15.2% for the first three quarters of 2021, and operating income grew by more than 26% to $4.4 billion.\nWhile income investors can find higher yields than Costco's 0.8%, it does have a history of annually raising dividends. This includes increasing May's payment to $0.79 from the previous quarter's $0.70. But better still, the board of directors has declared large special dividends every few years. The most recent was a $10 payment last December.\n3. Walmart\nWalmart (NYSE:WMT) has built itself into the world's largest retailer, serving more than 240 million customers every week. The company, which opened its first discount store nearly six decades ago, squeezes costs and passes these savings on to the customer. This allows Walmart to offer the lowest prices on its goods, making it difficult for competitors to keep up.\nIt isn't sitting still, either. It is keeping pace with online competitors, namely Amazon, by investing in technology to provide a seamless omnichannel experience to its shoppers. This includes launching the subscription service Walmart+, which provides delivery, gasoline discounts, and faster checkout at its stores.\nLast year, its adjusted revenue rose by 7.7% to $564.2 billion, driving operating income 9.3% higher to $23.4 billion. In the first quarter, revenue growth was about 2%, and management expects a low-single-digit percentage increase for the year. Its guidance calls for flattish operating income.\nWhile this outlook undoubtedly disappointed some investors, I'm not concerned. Management has its eyes on the long-term picture, and it is investing in technology to better serve its customers and remain a dominant retailer.\nWalmart also offers a 1.6% yield, and it has also raised its quarterly dividend annually since initiating a payout in 1974. Already aDividend Aristocrat, it will become a Dividend King when the streak hits 50 years.\nWhile these are three different companies in various stages, each is a strong addition to your portfolio. Adding them will give you a high-growth stock, a steady grower that tends to pay large dividends every few years, and a dominant retailer that continues to grow and regularly increase payments to shareholders.\nThat's a winning combination that should make these core holdings a great addition to your portfolio.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"COST":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"WMT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":573,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":194138872,"gmtCreate":1621346999396,"gmtModify":1634192256679,"author":{"id":"3555822052484377","authorId":"3555822052484377","name":"Tongs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a38d6dcec089553bed2e9e999c283a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555822052484377","authorIdStr":"3555822052484377"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Come on SOS! Save me from bagholding","listText":"Come on SOS! Save me from bagholding","text":"Come on SOS! Save me from bagholding","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/194138872","repostId":"1116448999","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116448999","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1621346808,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1116448999?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-18 22:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"SOS Ltd. stock Popped 7% in morning trading<blockquote>SOS Ltd.股价早盘上涨7%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116448999","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"SOS Ltd. stock Popped 7% in morning trading on launching 6,039 mining rigs as it scales up cryptomin","content":"<p>SOS Ltd. stock Popped 7% in morning trading&nbsp;on launching 6,039 mining rigs as it scales up cryptomining operations.</p><p><blockquote>SOS Ltd.股价在早盘交易中上涨7%，推出了6,039台采矿钻机，以扩大加密货币挖矿业务。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3dc4bb8fa01366330a28df161f8b0be\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> SOS Limited&nbsp;announced today that 6,039&nbsp;mining rigs received over the past month have all been put into operation, including a batch of 575 Ethereum (ETH) mining rigs received onMay 7, 2021, and another batch of 5,464 rigs from the third and final installation of our&nbsp;rig purchase received in April.</p><p><blockquote>SOS Limited今天宣布，过去一个月收到的6,039台采矿钻机已全部投入运营，其中包括2021年5月7日收到的一批575台以太币(ETH)采矿钻机，以及第三批也是最后一批5,464台钻机我们在4月份收到的钻机采购的安装。</blockquote></p><p> The 575 ETH rigs are expected to generate approximately 400 GH/s and the 5,464 rigs are expected to generate an aggregate of approximately 177 PH/s for mining Bitcoin (BTC) and 356 GH/s for mining ETH.</p><p><blockquote>575个ETH钻机预计将产生约400 GH/s的能量，5,464个钻机预计将产生约177 PH/s的能量，用于开采比特币(BTC)，为开采ETH产生356 GH/s的能量。</blockquote></p><p> Currently, across all mining fleet operations, SOS' total capacity is expected to generate approximately 527 PH/s for mining BTC and 1,456 GH/s for mining ETH. SOS currently gets over 90% of its energy for mining operations from renewable sources.</p><p><blockquote>目前，在所有采矿车队运营中，SOS的总容量预计为开采BTC产生约527 PH/s，为开采ETH产生1,456 GH/s。SOS目前90%以上的采矿作业能源来自可再生能源。</blockquote></p><p> If the mining operations perform as expected and the&nbsp; long-term price trends of applicable cryptocurrencies continue, the return on investment (ROI) is projected to be promising. These hash rates are subject to numerous factors, including down time for maintenance, reconfiguration and other variable factors that may materially impact computing performance in the future.</p><p><blockquote>如果采矿业务表现如预期，并且适用加密货币的长期价格趋势持续，投资回报（ROI）预计将是有希望的。这些哈希率受到许多因素的影响，包括维护、重新配置的停机时间和其他可能在未来对计算性能产生重大影响的可变因素。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Yandai Wang, CEO of SOS, commented, \"With the completion of Phase I of the Leibodong mine and continued expansion of our mining fleet, we are pleased with the progress on our digital currency business plan, based on blockchain technology. The launch of our mining business has provided valuable experience to our team, and is expected to be an important driver of growth in 2021 and beyond.\"</p><p><blockquote>SOS首席执行官Yandai Wang先生评论道：“随着雷波东矿场一期工程的完成以及我们采矿车队的持续扩张，我们对基于区块链技术的数字货币业务计划的进展感到高兴。我们采矿业务的推出为我们的团队提供了宝贵的经验，预计将成为2021年及以后增长的重要驱动力。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SOS Ltd. stock Popped 7% in morning trading<blockquote>SOS Ltd.股价早盘上涨7%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSOS Ltd. stock Popped 7% in morning trading<blockquote>SOS Ltd.股价早盘上涨7%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-18 22:06</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>SOS Ltd. stock Popped 7% in morning trading&nbsp;on launching 6,039 mining rigs as it scales up cryptomining operations.</p><p><blockquote>SOS Ltd.股价在早盘交易中上涨7%，推出了6,039台采矿钻机，以扩大加密货币挖矿业务。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3dc4bb8fa01366330a28df161f8b0be\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> SOS Limited&nbsp;announced today that 6,039&nbsp;mining rigs received over the past month have all been put into operation, including a batch of 575 Ethereum (ETH) mining rigs received onMay 7, 2021, and another batch of 5,464 rigs from the third and final installation of our&nbsp;rig purchase received in April.</p><p><blockquote>SOS Limited今天宣布，过去一个月收到的6,039台采矿钻机已全部投入运营，其中包括2021年5月7日收到的一批575台以太币(ETH)采矿钻机，以及第三批也是最后一批5,464台钻机我们在4月份收到的钻机采购的安装。</blockquote></p><p> The 575 ETH rigs are expected to generate approximately 400 GH/s and the 5,464 rigs are expected to generate an aggregate of approximately 177 PH/s for mining Bitcoin (BTC) and 356 GH/s for mining ETH.</p><p><blockquote>575个ETH钻机预计将产生约400 GH/s的能量，5,464个钻机预计将产生约177 PH/s的能量，用于开采比特币(BTC)，为开采ETH产生356 GH/s的能量。</blockquote></p><p> Currently, across all mining fleet operations, SOS' total capacity is expected to generate approximately 527 PH/s for mining BTC and 1,456 GH/s for mining ETH. SOS currently gets over 90% of its energy for mining operations from renewable sources.</p><p><blockquote>目前，在所有采矿车队运营中，SOS的总容量预计为开采BTC产生约527 PH/s，为开采ETH产生1,456 GH/s。SOS目前90%以上的采矿作业能源来自可再生能源。</blockquote></p><p> If the mining operations perform as expected and the&nbsp; long-term price trends of applicable cryptocurrencies continue, the return on investment (ROI) is projected to be promising. These hash rates are subject to numerous factors, including down time for maintenance, reconfiguration and other variable factors that may materially impact computing performance in the future.</p><p><blockquote>如果采矿业务表现如预期，并且适用加密货币的长期价格趋势持续，投资回报（ROI）预计将是有希望的。这些哈希率受到许多因素的影响，包括维护、重新配置的停机时间和其他可能在未来对计算性能产生重大影响的可变因素。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Yandai Wang, CEO of SOS, commented, \"With the completion of Phase I of the Leibodong mine and continued expansion of our mining fleet, we are pleased with the progress on our digital currency business plan, based on blockchain technology. The launch of our mining business has provided valuable experience to our team, and is expected to be an important driver of growth in 2021 and beyond.\"</p><p><blockquote>SOS首席执行官Yandai Wang先生评论道：“随着雷波东矿场一期工程的完成以及我们采矿车队的持续扩张，我们对基于区块链技术的数字货币业务计划的进展感到高兴。我们采矿业务的推出为我们的团队提供了宝贵的经验，预计将成为2021年及以后增长的重要驱动力。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SOS":"SOS Limited"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116448999","content_text":"SOS Ltd. stock Popped 7% in morning trading on launching 6,039 mining rigs as it scales up cryptomining operations.\n\nSOS Limited announced today that 6,039 mining rigs received over the past month have all been put into operation, including a batch of 575 Ethereum (ETH) mining rigs received onMay 7, 2021, and another batch of 5,464 rigs from the third and final installation of our rig purchase received in April.\nThe 575 ETH rigs are expected to generate approximately 400 GH/s and the 5,464 rigs are expected to generate an aggregate of approximately 177 PH/s for mining Bitcoin (BTC) and 356 GH/s for mining ETH.\nCurrently, across all mining fleet operations, SOS' total capacity is expected to generate approximately 527 PH/s for mining BTC and 1,456 GH/s for mining ETH. SOS currently gets over 90% of its energy for mining operations from renewable sources.\nIf the mining operations perform as expected and the  long-term price trends of applicable cryptocurrencies continue, the return on investment (ROI) is projected to be promising. These hash rates are subject to numerous factors, including down time for maintenance, reconfiguration and other variable factors that may materially impact computing performance in the future.\nMr. Yandai Wang, CEO of SOS, commented, \"With the completion of Phase I of the Leibodong mine and continued expansion of our mining fleet, we are pleased with the progress on our digital currency business plan, based on blockchain technology. The launch of our mining business has provided valuable experience to our team, and is expected to be an important driver of growth in 2021 and beyond.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SOS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":705,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":199090545,"gmtCreate":1620655567787,"gmtModify":1634197369079,"author":{"id":"3555822052484377","authorId":"3555822052484377","name":"Tongs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a38d6dcec089553bed2e9e999c283a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555822052484377","authorIdStr":"3555822052484377"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sooo red","listText":"Sooo red","text":"Sooo red","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/199090545","repostId":"1152509517","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":699,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375042274,"gmtCreate":1619266568298,"gmtModify":1634287365784,"author":{"id":"3555822052484377","authorId":"3555822052484377","name":"Tongs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a38d6dcec089553bed2e9e999c283a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555822052484377","authorIdStr":"3555822052484377"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Will it?","listText":"Will it?","text":"Will it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375042274","repostId":"1166519043","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":338,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":320473338,"gmtCreate":1615172183824,"gmtModify":1703485166597,"author":{"id":"3555822052484377","authorId":"3555822052484377","name":"Tongs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a38d6dcec089553bed2e9e999c283a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555822052484377","authorIdStr":"3555822052484377"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Will Ether be the next Bitcoin?&nbsp;","listText":"Will Ether be the next Bitcoin?&nbsp;","text":"Will Ether be the next Bitcoin?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/320473338","repostId":"2117657180","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":484,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166873265,"gmtCreate":1624004113757,"gmtModify":1631894010138,"author":{"id":"3555822052484377","authorId":"3555822052484377","name":"Tongs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a38d6dcec089553bed2e9e999c283a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555822052484377","authorIdStr":"3555822052484377"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sounds bad","listText":"Sounds bad","text":"Sounds bad","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166873265","repostId":"1142916683","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1142916683","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624003342,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142916683?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 16:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Orphazyme shares tumbled more than 60% in pre-market trading<blockquote>Orphazyme股价在盘前交易中暴跌超过60%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142916683","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Orphazyme shares tumbled more than 60% in pre-market trading.\nOrphazyme slashed its financial foreca","content":"<p>Orphazyme&nbsp;shares&nbsp;tumbled&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;60% in pre-market&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>Orphazyme股价在盘前交易中暴跌超过60%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b722b82c7d6ab2a6fcc7364eb2517b7f\" tg-width=\"1293\" tg-height=\"628\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Orphazyme slashed its financial forecasts on Friday after U.S. health regulators rejected its key drug candidate.</p><p><blockquote>在美国卫生监管机构拒绝其关键候选药物后，Orphazyme周五大幅下调了财务预测。</blockquote></p><p> Orphazyme said its application for FDA approval of arimoclomol, a treatment for genetic disorder Niemann-Pick disease type C, had not been successful.</p><p><blockquote>Orphazyme表示，其申请FDA批准arimoclomol（一种治疗遗传性疾病尼曼-皮克病C型的药物）的申请尚未成功。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, it predicted revenue for the year would be lower than previously expected and its operating loss significantly wider, forcing the company to cut costs.</p><p><blockquote>因此，该公司预计今年的收入将低于此前预期，运营亏损将大幅扩大，迫使该公司削减成本。</blockquote></p><p> \"Orphazyme has no money and no substantial projects ... Investors have put their money into a completely unrealistic scenario driven by 'meme tendencies',\" broker Nordnet wrote in a note to clients.</p><p><blockquote>经纪商Nordnet在给客户的一份报告中写道：“Orphazyme没有钱，也没有实质性的项目……投资者将资金投入到‘模因倾向’驱动的完全不切实际的场景中。”</blockquote></p><p> Orphazyme, which is listed in Copenhagen and New York, now expects an operating loss of 670-700 million crowns ($107-$112 million) in 2021, against a previous forecast for a loss of 100-150 million crowns.</p><p><blockquote>在哥本哈根和纽约上市的Orphazyme目前预计2021年的运营亏损为6.70-7亿克朗（107-1.12亿美元），而此前的预测为亏损100-1.5亿克朗。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Orphazyme shares tumbled more than 60% in pre-market trading<blockquote>Orphazyme股价在盘前交易中暴跌超过60%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOrphazyme shares tumbled more than 60% in pre-market trading<blockquote>Orphazyme股价在盘前交易中暴跌超过60%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-18 16:02</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Orphazyme&nbsp;shares&nbsp;tumbled&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;60% in pre-market&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>Orphazyme股价在盘前交易中暴跌超过60%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b722b82c7d6ab2a6fcc7364eb2517b7f\" tg-width=\"1293\" tg-height=\"628\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Orphazyme slashed its financial forecasts on Friday after U.S. health regulators rejected its key drug candidate.</p><p><blockquote>在美国卫生监管机构拒绝其关键候选药物后，Orphazyme周五大幅下调了财务预测。</blockquote></p><p> Orphazyme said its application for FDA approval of arimoclomol, a treatment for genetic disorder Niemann-Pick disease type C, had not been successful.</p><p><blockquote>Orphazyme表示，其申请FDA批准arimoclomol（一种治疗遗传性疾病尼曼-皮克病C型的药物）的申请尚未成功。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, it predicted revenue for the year would be lower than previously expected and its operating loss significantly wider, forcing the company to cut costs.</p><p><blockquote>因此，该公司预计今年的收入将低于此前预期，运营亏损将大幅扩大，迫使该公司削减成本。</blockquote></p><p> \"Orphazyme has no money and no substantial projects ... Investors have put their money into a completely unrealistic scenario driven by 'meme tendencies',\" broker Nordnet wrote in a note to clients.</p><p><blockquote>经纪商Nordnet在给客户的一份报告中写道：“Orphazyme没有钱，也没有实质性的项目……投资者将资金投入到‘模因倾向’驱动的完全不切实际的场景中。”</blockquote></p><p> Orphazyme, which is listed in Copenhagen and New York, now expects an operating loss of 670-700 million crowns ($107-$112 million) in 2021, against a previous forecast for a loss of 100-150 million crowns.</p><p><blockquote>在哥本哈根和纽约上市的Orphazyme目前预计2021年的运营亏损为6.70-7亿克朗（107-1.12亿美元），而此前的预测为亏损100-1.5亿克朗。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142916683","content_text":"Orphazyme shares tumbled more than 60% in pre-market trading.\nOrphazyme slashed its financial forecasts on Friday after U.S. health regulators rejected its key drug candidate.\nOrphazyme said its application for FDA approval of arimoclomol, a treatment for genetic disorder Niemann-Pick disease type C, had not been successful.\nAs a result, it predicted revenue for the year would be lower than previously expected and its operating loss significantly wider, forcing the company to cut costs.\n\"Orphazyme has no money and no substantial projects ... Investors have put their money into a completely unrealistic scenario driven by 'meme tendencies',\" broker Nordnet wrote in a note to clients.\nOrphazyme, which is listed in Copenhagen and New York, now expects an operating loss of 670-700 million crowns ($107-$112 million) in 2021, against a previous forecast for a loss of 100-150 million crowns.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ORPH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":666,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}