锎矿工的个人主页 - 老虎社区

锎矿工

锎矿工

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IP属地：湖南

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0勋章

2020-10-20

格局来看最少都到开心的两倍市值 ALL IN ！！！

2020-10-20

$开心汽车(KXIN)$ 看到20 起飞！！！

2020-10-15

$晶科能源(JKS)$基本面都不错，为什么市盈率在行业内偏低呢？

2020-10-15

为什么在行业内市盈率偏低？

2020-10-13

有硬庄这拉升能力杠杠滴果断入

2020-10-02

不慌，最开始都比较温和

纽约时报：特朗普新冠病例症状截至目前比较温和

2020-10-02

$特斯拉(TSLA)$看得出庄哥不拉到450是不好意思割韭菜了[得意]

2020-09-24

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 60日均线近在咫尺大家怎么看

2020-09-24

这句死给你看甚是精妙[强]

美股大跌的原因和潜在问题找到了！

2020-09-24

$阳光动力(SPI)$这是个啥玩意？？？

2020-09-23

$蔚来(NIO)$争气[强] 今天没跟大哥跑了

2020-09-04

盘后一个4万股（19刀）的大空单挂在那儿会影响什么？

2020-09-03

$蔚来(NIO)$有人喜欢跌停，有人喜欢涨停.取决于你上没上车吧.根据美股交易规则，熔断机制在美国交易时间内共分三个档级：第一级为涨跌达7%时，第二级为涨跌幅达13%时，第三级为涨跌幅达20%时。1、如果触发一级(7%)或者二级(13%)市场熔断，且时间是在美东时间9:30-15:25(含)之间，全市场所有股票暂停交易15分钟;美东时间15:25之后，不暂停交易;如果该交易日为半天交易，则时间分界点为12:25。2、如果触发三级(20%)市场熔断，全市场停止交易，直至下个交易日开盘。

2020-08-26

$蔚来(NIO)$活捉买入大单一支！

2020-08-11

$蔚来(NIO)$佛系炒股云淡风轻就搁这里五年之后这点起伏又算啥？

2020-08-11

$蔚来(NIO)$以老夫看盘中会有一大波拉升！

2020-08-07

$蔚来(NIO)$看跌你做空看涨你做多整天在这当半仙的看看你的持仓！

2020-07-29

$柯达(KODK)$长见识了！觉得再涨就是泡沫了！

2020-07-22

那么，对股市有些什么影响呢？

抱歉，原内容已删除

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n纽约时报：特朗普新冠病例症状截至目前比较温和\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-10-02 20:49</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>10月2日讯，据环球网：美国《纽约时报》刚刚消息，特朗普的新冠病例症状截至目前比较温和，有类似感冒的症状。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c21335c9fbf67353f7991d911935c983","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170506936","content_text":"10月2日讯，据环球网：美国《纽约时报》刚刚消息，特朗普的新冠病例症状截至目前比较温和，有类似感冒的症状。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1920,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":977297018,"gmtCreate":1601581156434,"gmtModify":1703824839860,"author":{"id":"3556886242864170","authorId":"3556886242864170","name":"锎矿工","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a651574586dc94c87520ae148cde4dfb","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556886242864170","authorIdStr":"3556886242864170"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>看得出庄哥不拉到450是不好意思割韭菜了[得意]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>看得出庄哥不拉到450是不好意思割韭菜了[得意]&nbsp;","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$看得出庄哥不拉到450是不好意思割韭菜了[得意]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/977297018","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2448,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":974160170,"gmtCreate":1600958342090,"gmtModify":1703823178819,"author":{"id":"3556886242864170","authorId":"3556886242864170","name":"锎矿工","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a651574586dc94c87520ae148cde4dfb","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556886242864170","authorIdStr":"3556886242864170"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> 60日均线近在咫尺 大家怎么看","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> 60日均线近在咫尺 大家怎么看","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 60日均线近在咫尺 大家怎么看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/974160170","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2577,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":974391601,"gmtCreate":1600928211303,"gmtModify":1703823002204,"author":{"id":"3556886242864170","authorId":"3556886242864170","name":"锎矿工","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a651574586dc94c87520ae148cde4dfb","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556886242864170","authorIdStr":"3556886242864170"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这句死给你看甚是精妙[强]&nbsp;","listText":"这句死给你看甚是精妙[强]&nbsp;","text":"这句死给你看甚是精妙[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/974391601","repostId":"1175627487","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175627487","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1600909830,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175627487?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-09-24 09:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股大跌的原因和潜在问题找到了！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175627487","media":"雪涛宏观笔记","summary":"欧股下跌的主要原因是欧洲疫情数字再次爆发，最近单日新增已经追上美国，其中法国单日新增过万。目前来看，欧洲疫情二次爆发的原因是复工复课和逐渐放松警惕，感染者以年轻人为主，重症率和死亡率较低，与美国6-7","content":"<p><b>欧股下跌的主要原因是欧洲疫情数字再次爆发</b>，最近单日新增已经追上美国，其中法国单日新增过万。目前来看，欧洲疫情二次爆发的原因是复工复课和逐渐放松警惕，感染者以年轻人为主，重症率和死亡率较低，与美国6-7月疫情爆发的情况类似，因此像上半年一样的基本面恐慌还没有出现。加上大概率今年冬季会推出紧急使用的疫苗，目前对于二次封锁的普遍预期是强度和经济影响不会超过第一次。也就是说，欧洲经济仍然在弱复苏的轨道上，但秋冬复苏进程可能暂时停滞。<b>欧股下跌的另一个原因和美国司法部调查几家大银行可能参与的洗钱犯罪有关</b>（汇丰，渣打，摩根大通，德银，纽约梅隆）。</p><p><b>美股下跌的主要问题还是流动性担忧。</b>上半年美联储的工具箱已经见底并使出了MMT，MMT还需要财政扩张，但财政救助计划在两党已经进入选举时间后持续停摆。在没有财政扩张的情况下，美联储无法主动宽松，最多也就是维持零利率和购买存量资产，因此只能解决流动性危机，但没法修复居民和企业的资产负债表问题。加上8月经济数据的恢复的低于预期，密歇根消费信心指数低位波动，红皮书商业零售销售同比短暂转正后再次回落，在这种基本面复苏疲弱的情况下，股票市场对于流动性宽松的诉求会更加强烈。因此只要联储在公开的议息会议或各种讲话中没有更宽松的表态，市场就可能做出激烈的回应（“死给你看”）。</p><p><b>不过和3月时的流动性危机对比，当前的基本面没有出现黑天鹅，流动性价格（比如Libor和cp）没有出现明显紧张，贵金属和债券利率也没有出现单一趋势，因此看起来更像是上涨过快后的技术性调整。</b>9月中上旬主要是高估值的成长股获利回吐，近期价值股也开始技术性调整。</p><p><b>财政救助停摆的另一个问题是会影响到股票市场的流动性。</b>疫情以来，散户交易活跃度相比历史正常水平明显上升，这其中和财政救助计划的转移支付有直接关系。根据Envestnet Yodlee对消费者的银行账户数据的调查，发现有联邦救助支票的美国家庭相比没有支票的家庭在股票交易量上有大幅的提升。因此一旦财政救助暂停后，从财政转移支付转化为股票市场流动性的链条将出现压力。</p><p><b>当前美国市场面临的次要问题是混乱的政治局面。</b>大法官RBG去世后，特朗普急于提名保守派大法官，两党在大选前的争斗已经白热化，支持率落后拜登越多，意味着大选后的混乱概率越大，而混乱又隐含了财政政策的持续缺位。对美国政治局面和流动性的双重担忧，在大选前只会越来越高，近期海外市场的避险情绪已经开始升温，VIX指数上升，国债利率下降。</p><p><b>好消息是大选前的中美关系黑天鹅依然只是噪音而不是风险。</b>TikTok从之前被威胁剥离、强制出售甚至关闭，到后来达成技术合作的协议、不出售数据和算法并加快推进融资上市，可以看出中美之间的问题，在不触及到核心技术和政治问题时，依然是利益解决优先。美国政府放行Intel和AMD对华为的笔记本芯片供货也是类似的道理。</p><p>由于欧洲疫情二次爆发和复苏停滞的顾虑，加上临近脱欧期限，近期英镑和欧元开始走弱，美元走强到94以上，带来大宗商品的工业属性和金融属性的双杀。原油依然看不到需求的明显转机，墨西哥湾飓风带来的油价短期上涨已经结束，油价依然在40美元附近弱势震荡。</p>","source":"xthgbj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股大跌的原因和潜在问题找到了！</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股大跌的原因和潜在问题找到了！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-09-24 09:10 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/OgfE_EOuk12NXtlC6iLaFg><strong>雪涛宏观笔记</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>欧股下跌的主要原因是欧洲疫情数字再次爆发，最近单日新增已经追上美国，其中法国单日新增过万。目前来看，欧洲疫情二次爆发的原因是复工复课和逐渐放松警惕，感染者以年轻人为主，重症率和死亡率较低，与美国6-7月疫情爆发的情况类似，因此像上半年一样的基本面恐慌还没有出现。加上大概率今年冬季会推出紧急使用的疫苗，目前对于二次封锁的普遍预期是强度和经济影响不会超过第一次。也就是说，欧洲经济仍然在弱复苏的轨道上，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/OgfE_EOuk12NXtlC6iLaFg\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/OgfE_EOuk12NXtlC6iLaFg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175627487","content_text":"欧股下跌的主要原因是欧洲疫情数字再次爆发，最近单日新增已经追上美国，其中法国单日新增过万。目前来看，欧洲疫情二次爆发的原因是复工复课和逐渐放松警惕，感染者以年轻人为主，重症率和死亡率较低，与美国6-7月疫情爆发的情况类似，因此像上半年一样的基本面恐慌还没有出现。加上大概率今年冬季会推出紧急使用的疫苗，目前对于二次封锁的普遍预期是强度和经济影响不会超过第一次。也就是说，欧洲经济仍然在弱复苏的轨道上，但秋冬复苏进程可能暂时停滞。欧股下跌的另一个原因和美国司法部调查几家大银行可能参与的洗钱犯罪有关（汇丰，渣打，摩根大通，德银，纽约梅隆）。美股下跌的主要问题还是流动性担忧。上半年美联储的工具箱已经见底并使出了MMT，MMT还需要财政扩张，但财政救助计划在两党已经进入选举时间后持续停摆。在没有财政扩张的情况下，美联储无法主动宽松，最多也就是维持零利率和购买存量资产，因此只能解决流动性危机，但没法修复居民和企业的资产负债表问题。加上8月经济数据的恢复的低于预期，密歇根消费信心指数低位波动，红皮书商业零售销售同比短暂转正后再次回落，在这种基本面复苏疲弱的情况下，股票市场对于流动性宽松的诉求会更加强烈。因此只要联储在公开的议息会议或各种讲话中没有更宽松的表态，市场就可能做出激烈的回应（“死给你看”）。不过和3月时的流动性危机对比，当前的基本面没有出现黑天鹅，流动性价格（比如Libor和cp）没有出现明显紧张，贵金属和债券利率也没有出现单一趋势，因此看起来更像是上涨过快后的技术性调整。9月中上旬主要是高估值的成长股获利回吐，近期价值股也开始技术性调整。财政救助停摆的另一个问题是会影响到股票市场的流动性。疫情以来，散户交易活跃度相比历史正常水平明显上升，这其中和财政救助计划的转移支付有直接关系。根据Envestnet 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20:49","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"纽约时报：特朗普新冠病例症状截至目前比较温和","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170506936","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"10月2日讯，据环球网：美国《纽约时报》刚刚消息，特朗普的新冠病例症状截至目前比较温和，有类似感冒的症状。","content":"<p>10月2日讯，据环球网：美国《纽约时报》刚刚消息，特朗普的新冠病例症状截至目前比较温和，有类似感冒的症状。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>纽约时报：特朗普新冠病例症状截至目前比较温和</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n纽约时报：特朗普新冠病例症状截至目前比较温和\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-10-02 20:49</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>10月2日讯，据环球网：美国《纽约时报》刚刚消息，特朗普的新冠病例症状截至目前比较温和，有类似感冒的症状。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c21335c9fbf67353f7991d911935c983","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170506936","content_text":"10月2日讯，据环球网：美国《纽约时报》刚刚消息，特朗普的新冠病例症状截至目前比较温和，有类似感冒的症状。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1920,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":974160170,"gmtCreate":1600958342090,"gmtModify":1703823178819,"author":{"id":"3556886242864170","authorId":"3556886242864170","name":"锎矿工","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a651574586dc94c87520ae148cde4dfb","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556886242864170","authorIdStr":"3556886242864170"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> 60日均线近在咫尺 大家怎么看","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> 60日均线近在咫尺 大家怎么看","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 60日均线近在咫尺 大家怎么看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/974160170","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2577,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":974391601,"gmtCreate":1600928211303,"gmtModify":1703823002204,"author":{"id":"3556886242864170","authorId":"3556886242864170","name":"锎矿工","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a651574586dc94c87520ae148cde4dfb","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556886242864170","authorIdStr":"3556886242864170"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这句死给你看甚是精妙[强]&nbsp;","listText":"这句死给你看甚是精妙[强]&nbsp;","text":"这句死给你看甚是精妙[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/974391601","repostId":"1175627487","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175627487","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1600909830,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175627487?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-09-24 09:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股大跌的原因和潜在问题找到了！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175627487","media":"雪涛宏观笔记","summary":"欧股下跌的主要原因是欧洲疫情数字再次爆发，最近单日新增已经追上美国，其中法国单日新增过万。目前来看，欧洲疫情二次爆发的原因是复工复课和逐渐放松警惕，感染者以年轻人为主，重症率和死亡率较低，与美国6-7","content":"<p><b>欧股下跌的主要原因是欧洲疫情数字再次爆发</b>，最近单日新增已经追上美国，其中法国单日新增过万。目前来看，欧洲疫情二次爆发的原因是复工复课和逐渐放松警惕，感染者以年轻人为主，重症率和死亡率较低，与美国6-7月疫情爆发的情况类似，因此像上半年一样的基本面恐慌还没有出现。加上大概率今年冬季会推出紧急使用的疫苗，目前对于二次封锁的普遍预期是强度和经济影响不会超过第一次。也就是说，欧洲经济仍然在弱复苏的轨道上，但秋冬复苏进程可能暂时停滞。<b>欧股下跌的另一个原因和美国司法部调查几家大银行可能参与的洗钱犯罪有关</b>（汇丰，渣打，摩根大通，德银，纽约梅隆）。</p><p><b>美股下跌的主要问题还是流动性担忧。</b>上半年美联储的工具箱已经见底并使出了MMT，MMT还需要财政扩张，但财政救助计划在两党已经进入选举时间后持续停摆。在没有财政扩张的情况下，美联储无法主动宽松，最多也就是维持零利率和购买存量资产，因此只能解决流动性危机，但没法修复居民和企业的资产负债表问题。加上8月经济数据的恢复的低于预期，密歇根消费信心指数低位波动，红皮书商业零售销售同比短暂转正后再次回落，在这种基本面复苏疲弱的情况下，股票市场对于流动性宽松的诉求会更加强烈。因此只要联储在公开的议息会议或各种讲话中没有更宽松的表态，市场就可能做出激烈的回应（“死给你看”）。</p><p><b>不过和3月时的流动性危机对比，当前的基本面没有出现黑天鹅，流动性价格（比如Libor和cp）没有出现明显紧张，贵金属和债券利率也没有出现单一趋势，因此看起来更像是上涨过快后的技术性调整。</b>9月中上旬主要是高估值的成长股获利回吐，近期价值股也开始技术性调整。</p><p><b>财政救助停摆的另一个问题是会影响到股票市场的流动性。</b>疫情以来，散户交易活跃度相比历史正常水平明显上升，这其中和财政救助计划的转移支付有直接关系。根据Envestnet Yodlee对消费者的银行账户数据的调查，发现有联邦救助支票的美国家庭相比没有支票的家庭在股票交易量上有大幅的提升。因此一旦财政救助暂停后，从财政转移支付转化为股票市场流动性的链条将出现压力。</p><p><b>当前美国市场面临的次要问题是混乱的政治局面。</b>大法官RBG去世后，特朗普急于提名保守派大法官，两党在大选前的争斗已经白热化，支持率落后拜登越多，意味着大选后的混乱概率越大，而混乱又隐含了财政政策的持续缺位。对美国政治局面和流动性的双重担忧，在大选前只会越来越高，近期海外市场的避险情绪已经开始升温，VIX指数上升，国债利率下降。</p><p><b>好消息是大选前的中美关系黑天鹅依然只是噪音而不是风险。</b>TikTok从之前被威胁剥离、强制出售甚至关闭，到后来达成技术合作的协议、不出售数据和算法并加快推进融资上市，可以看出中美之间的问题，在不触及到核心技术和政治问题时，依然是利益解决优先。美国政府放行Intel和AMD对华为的笔记本芯片供货也是类似的道理。</p><p>由于欧洲疫情二次爆发和复苏停滞的顾虑，加上临近脱欧期限，近期英镑和欧元开始走弱，美元走强到94以上，带来大宗商品的工业属性和金融属性的双杀。原油依然看不到需求的明显转机，墨西哥湾飓风带来的油价短期上涨已经结束，油价依然在40美元附近弱势震荡。</p>","source":"xthgbj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股大跌的原因和潜在问题找到了！</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股大跌的原因和潜在问题找到了！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-09-24 09:10 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/OgfE_EOuk12NXtlC6iLaFg><strong>雪涛宏观笔记</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>欧股下跌的主要原因是欧洲疫情数字再次爆发，最近单日新增已经追上美国，其中法国单日新增过万。目前来看，欧洲疫情二次爆发的原因是复工复课和逐渐放松警惕，感染者以年轻人为主，重症率和死亡率较低，与美国6-7月疫情爆发的情况类似，因此像上半年一样的基本面恐慌还没有出现。加上大概率今年冬季会推出紧急使用的疫苗，目前对于二次封锁的普遍预期是强度和经济影响不会超过第一次。也就是说，欧洲经济仍然在弱复苏的轨道上，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/OgfE_EOuk12NXtlC6iLaFg\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/OgfE_EOuk12NXtlC6iLaFg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175627487","content_text":"欧股下跌的主要原因是欧洲疫情数字再次爆发，最近单日新增已经追上美国，其中法国单日新增过万。目前来看，欧洲疫情二次爆发的原因是复工复课和逐渐放松警惕，感染者以年轻人为主，重症率和死亡率较低，与美国6-7月疫情爆发的情况类似，因此像上半年一样的基本面恐慌还没有出现。加上大概率今年冬季会推出紧急使用的疫苗，目前对于二次封锁的普遍预期是强度和经济影响不会超过第一次。也就是说，欧洲经济仍然在弱复苏的轨道上，但秋冬复苏进程可能暂时停滞。欧股下跌的另一个原因和美国司法部调查几家大银行可能参与的洗钱犯罪有关（汇丰，渣打，摩根大通，德银，纽约梅隆）。美股下跌的主要问题还是流动性担忧。上半年美联储的工具箱已经见底并使出了MMT，MMT还需要财政扩张，但财政救助计划在两党已经进入选举时间后持续停摆。在没有财政扩张的情况下，美联储无法主动宽松，最多也就是维持零利率和购买存量资产，因此只能解决流动性危机，但没法修复居民和企业的资产负债表问题。加上8月经济数据的恢复的低于预期，密歇根消费信心指数低位波动，红皮书商业零售销售同比短暂转正后再次回落，在这种基本面复苏疲弱的情况下，股票市场对于流动性宽松的诉求会更加强烈。因此只要联储在公开的议息会议或各种讲话中没有更宽松的表态，市场就可能做出激烈的回应（“死给你看”）。不过和3月时的流动性危机对比，当前的基本面没有出现黑天鹅，流动性价格（比如Libor和cp）没有出现明显紧张，贵金属和债券利率也没有出现单一趋势，因此看起来更像是上涨过快后的技术性调整。9月中上旬主要是高估值的成长股获利回吐，近期价值股也开始技术性调整。财政救助停摆的另一个问题是会影响到股票市场的流动性。疫情以来，散户交易活跃度相比历史正常水平明显上升，这其中和财政救助计划的转移支付有直接关系。根据Envestnet Yodlee对消费者的银行账户数据的调查，发现有联邦救助支票的美国家庭相比没有支票的家庭在股票交易量上有大幅的提升。因此一旦财政救助暂停后，从财政转移支付转化为股票市场流动性的链条将出现压力。当前美国市场面临的次要问题是混乱的政治局面。大法官RBG去世后，特朗普急于提名保守派大法官，两党在大选前的争斗已经白热化，支持率落后拜登越多，意味着大选后的混乱概率越大，而混乱又隐含了财政政策的持续缺位。对美国政治局面和流动性的双重担忧，在大选前只会越来越高，近期海外市场的避险情绪已经开始升温，VIX指数上升，国债利率下降。好消息是大选前的中美关系黑天鹅依然只是噪音而不是风险。TikTok从之前被威胁剥离、强制出售甚至关闭，到后来达成技术合作的协议、不出售数据和算法并加快推进融资上市，可以看出中美之间的问题，在不触及到核心技术和政治问题时，依然是利益解决优先。美国政府放行Intel和AMD对华为的笔记本芯片供货也是类似的道理。由于欧洲疫情二次爆发和复苏停滞的顾虑，加上临近脱欧期限，近期英镑和欧元开始走弱，美元走强到94以上，带来大宗商品的工业属性和金融属性的双杀。原油依然看不到需求的明显转机，墨西哥湾飓风带来的油价短期上涨已经结束，油价依然在40美元附近弱势震荡。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1593,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":978178337,"gmtCreate":1599159126129,"gmtModify":1704221843325,"author":{"id":"3556886242864170","authorId":"3556886242864170","name":"锎矿工","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a651574586dc94c87520ae148cde4dfb","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556886242864170","authorIdStr":"3556886242864170"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"盘后一个4万股（19刀）的大空单挂在那儿会影响什么？","listText":"盘后一个4万股（19刀）的大空单挂在那儿会影响什么？","text":"盘后一个4万股（19刀）的大空单挂在那儿会影响什么？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/978178337","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1111,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}