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2021-03-02

Cool

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2021-03-01

Good

'Build Me An Ark': The Tsunami Of Risk Of Tesla-Bitcoin-Cathie Wood Is Coming<blockquote>“为我建造一艘方舟”：特斯拉-比特币-凯西·伍德的风险海啸即将到来</blockquote>

2021-02-26

Eth

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2021-02-25

Nice

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2021-02-23

Gone

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2021-02-22

Geez

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2021-02-21

Good job

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2021-02-20

Nicr

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2021-02-19

Sad

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2021-02-17

Wow

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2021-02-16

Good

STI closes marginally higher by 0.13%, with all eyes on Budget 2021<blockquote>STI收盘小幅上涨0.13%，所有人都关注2021年预算</blockquote>

2021-02-14

Nice

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2021-02-11

Wow

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2021-02-10

Wow

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2021-02-09

Gone

These 12 lessons from the GameStop and AMC frenzy can help you make money trading stocks (or at least lose less)<blockquote>游戏驿站和AMC狂潮的这12个教训可以帮助您通过股票交易赚钱（或至少损失更少）</blockquote>

2021-02-08

Diamond hands

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2021-02-08

Go uber

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2021-02-08

Interesting

Where Can Investors Hide as a Bubble Inflates?<blockquote>随着泡沫的膨胀，投资者可以躲在哪里？</blockquote>

2021-02-07

Go Tencent

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2021-02-07

Wow

Luckin Coffee’s Restructuring Efforts Move Forward with Commencement of its Chapter 15 Case in the United States<blockquote>随着美国破产法第15章案件的启动，瑞星咖啡的重组工作向前推进</blockquote>

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20:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"'Build Me An Ark': The Tsunami Of Risk Of Tesla-Bitcoin-Cathie Wood Is Coming<blockquote>“为我建造一艘方舟”：特斯拉-比特币-凯西·伍德的风险海啸即将到来</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105841550","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Summary:\n\n In today's equity update we are following up on our\n analysis of the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark ri","content":"<p><u><b>Summary:</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>摘要：</b></u></blockquote></p><p>   In today's equity update we are following up on our  <b>analysis of the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk cluster</b>showing an updated positions analysis, cross-correlations in the flagship Ark Innovation ETF, and an drawdown analysis. Yesterday, was another bad session for this risk cluster and Ark Invest had a day with outflows across all their ETFs highlighting that risk sentiment has changed. With the founder's bold move to increase the position in Tesla during the week the risk has gone up that this risk cluster could turn into an ugly forced selling dynamic causing pain in not only Tesla, Bitcoin, and Ark funds, but also US biotechnology stocks where Ark Invest is a major holder with high ownership in selected names.  A little over a month ago we first flagged the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk cluster as something to take note off as short-term correlation between Tesla and Bitcoin was shooting up. A survey from Charles Schwab also confirmed our suspicion that there is a big overlap as these two instruments are among the top five holdings by millennials. Our analysis quickly led us to Ark Invest with its famous Ark Innovation ETF which had a big position in Tesla and its charismatic founder Cathie Wood is a big believer in the so-called disruptive innovation culture of Silicon Valley. This class of people believe firmly in technology as mainly good for society in all its aspects and that&nbsp;Bitcoin is a protection against future wealth confiscation&nbsp;which is most likely inevitable due to historically high wealth inequality.</p><p><blockquote>在今天的股票更新中，我们将跟进我们的<b>特斯拉-比特币-方舟风险集群分析</b>显示了最新的头寸分析、旗舰Ark Innovation ETF的互相关性以及回撤分析。昨天是该风险集群的又一个糟糕交易日，Ark Invest的所有ETF都出现资金外流，突显出风险情绪已经发生变化。随着创始人本周大胆增持特斯拉头寸，这一风险集群可能演变成丑陋的强制抛售动态的风险已经上升，不仅会给特斯拉、比特币和Ark基金带来痛苦，也会给美国生物科技股带来痛苦。Ark Invest是主要持有人，在选定的名称中拥有大量所有权。一个多月前，随着特斯拉和比特币之间的短期相关性不断上升，我们首次将特斯拉-比特币-方舟风险集群标记为值得注意的问题。嘉信理财的一项调查也证实了我们的怀疑，即存在很大重叠，因为这两种工具是千禧一代持有的前五大工具之一。我们的分析很快让我们找到了Ark Invest及其著名的Ark Innovation ETF，该ETF在特斯拉拥有大量头寸，其魅力四射的创始人Cathie Wood是硅谷所谓颠覆性创新文化的忠实信徒。这一类人坚信技术在各个方面对社会都有好处，比特币是防止未来财富被没收的一种保护，由于历史上高度的财富不平等，这很可能是不可避免的。</blockquote></p><p> This disruptive innovation culture is powerful. It is presented by some of the wealthiest people of this planet. Endless presentation about innovation and institutions like the Singularity University promote these views. Behind Bitcoin you find a huge online marketing machine sucking ordinary people into the game. Recently wealthy people such as Elon Musk has openly supported Bitcoin, first in writing and later in action adding $1.5bn to Tesla’s balance sheet and thereby significantly increasing its earnings volatility. The triangle of Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark and their respective momentum has reinforced each other creating a positive feedback loop luring more investors into these instruments. As we have seen this week the ‘tower of risk’ is beginning to show cracks.</p><p><blockquote>这种颠覆性的创新文化是强大的。它是由这个星球上一些最富有的人提出的。关于创新和奇点大学等机构的无休止的介绍促进了这些观点。在比特币背后，你会发现一个巨大的在线营销机器，将普通人吸进游戏中。最近，Elon Musk等富人公开支持比特币，先是以书面形式，后来又采取行动，为特斯拉的资产负债表增加了15亿美元，从而显着增加了其盈利波动性。特斯拉-比特币-方舟三角及其各自的势头相互加强，创造了一个正反馈循环，吸引更多投资者进入这些工具。正如我们本周所看到的，“风险之塔”开始出现裂缝。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ark position update and Cathie Wood’s bold move and the risk to biotechnology</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Ark立场更新和Cathie Wood的大胆举措以及生物技术面临的风险</b></blockquote></p><p> This week Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark all came under pressure from negative voices in governments over Bitcoin and beginning noise over real competition for Tesla in the coming years. The risk cluster was clearly moving together, and correlations started rising. On Tuesday, volatility picked up across the board and at one point Cathie Wood felt it was necessary to go public supporting her funds and said that&nbsp;she had increased their position in Tesla&nbsp;using big numbers in the future to justify increasing the risk. This is a bold move, but it increases the risk considerably. When you are at risk of seeing sizeable outflows, you should start reducing the most illiquid positions first while you can control the situation. Because if you are forced to do it by redemptions the game changes dramatically.</p><p><blockquote>本周，特斯拉-比特币-方舟都面临着来自政府对比特币的负面声音的压力，以及未来几年特斯拉真正竞争的噪音。风险集群显然在一起移动，相关性开始上升。周二，波动性全面加剧，凯西·伍德(Cathie Wood)一度认为有必要上市支持她的基金，并表示她已经增加了在特斯拉的头寸，并在未来利用大量数据来证明增加风险的合理性。这是一个大胆的举动，但它大大增加了风险。当你面临大量资金外流的风险时，你应该在你能控制局面的时候，首先开始减少流动性最差的头寸。因为如果你被迫这样做，游戏就会发生巨大的变化。</blockquote></p><p> The tables below show updated Ark Invest positions as of yesterday’s close. There are still 26 stocks where Ark Invest holds more than 10% of the outstanding shares. This could become a serious problem if Ark Invest is suddenly caught in a negative feedback loop together with Tesla and Bitcoin. But also note how US biotechnology stocks are overrepresented in this list of stocks with high ownership in percentage of outstanding shares. If Ark Invest suddenly experience across the board outflows, like it did yesterday, then they can suddenly be the forced seller in US biotechnology stocks where they are the whale. This could cascade into the overall US biotechnology segment although the group is diverse.</p><p><blockquote>下表显示了截至昨天收盘时更新的Ark Invest头寸。Ark Invest持有流通股比例超过10%的个股仍有26只。如果Ark Invest突然与特斯拉和比特币一起陷入负反馈循环，这可能会成为一个严重的问题。但也请注意，美国生物技术股票在这份占流通股比例较高的股票列表中所占比例过高。如果Ark Invest突然经历全面资金外流，就像昨天一样，那么他们可能会突然成为美国生物科技股的被迫卖家，而他们是鲸鱼。尽管该集团是多元化的，但这可能会波及整个美国生物技术领域。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Stocks held by Ark Invest funds with combined ownership above 10% of outstanding shares</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Ark Invest基金持有的合计持股比例超过流通股10%的股票</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97684f80243d32efc06f3379d51d4fb\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"353\">Source: Ark Invest, Bloomberg, and Saxo Group</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：Ark Invest、彭博社和盛宝集团</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The table below shows the largest positions across all funds. Here Tesla has now jumped to 7% of AUM and the first five positions now account for 21.6% of AUM. The five biggest stocks are Tesla, Teladoc Health, Square, Roku, and Baidu. Square just recently reported disappointing Q4 earnings and announced the purchase of $170mn of Bitcoin increasing the risk and feedback loop further in this risk cluster. In the Ark Innovation ETF itself, Tesla is now 10.2% of assets and together with Roku (6%) and Square (5.4%) these three stocks represent 21.6% of assets. If you look at the 10 largest positions in the Ark Innovation ETF then the red thread is that they all come with very high equity valuations and thus low implied equity risk premiums. They are all also mostly equity financed, except for Tesla, which means that the WACC, cost of capital, predominantly come from the cost of equity. With low implied equity risk premiums, the risk-free rate dominates much more than for a company such as say Microsoft or Apple. This means that the rising interest rates could suddenly cause a huge shift in equity valuations. Not because the future is different but because the cost of capital has changed.</p><p><blockquote>下表显示了所有基金的最大头寸。在这里，特斯拉现在已经跃升至资产管理规模的7%，前五个职位现在占资产管理规模的21.6%。最大的五只股票是特斯拉、Teladoc Health、Square、Roku和百度。Square最近刚刚公布了令人失望的第四季度收益，并宣布以1.7亿美元收购比特币，进一步增加了该风险集群的风险和反馈循环。在Ark Innovation ETF本身中，特斯拉目前占资产的10.2%，加上Roku(6%)和Square(5.4%)，这三只股票占资产的21.6%。如果你看看Ark Innovation ETF中最大的10个头寸，那么红线是它们都具有非常高的股票估值，因此隐含的股票风险溢价较低。除特斯拉外，它们也主要是股权融资，这意味着WACC（资本成本）主要来自股权成本。由于隐含股权风险溢价较低，无风险利率比微软或苹果等公司占据主导地位。这意味着利率上升可能会突然导致股票估值发生巨大变化。不是因为未来不同，而是因为资本成本发生了变化。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Top positions in terms of Ark Invest AUM across all funds</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Ark Invest所有基金的资产管理规模排名靠前</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e06fcb66d5a52e629b48c9cab492586\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"302\">Source: Ark Invest, Bloomberg, and Saxo Group</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：Ark Invest、彭博社和盛宝集团</blockquote></p><p> <u><b>Correlations on the rise and drawdown outlier</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>上涨和下跌异常值的相关性</b></u></blockquote></p><p> The best sign of risk going haywire is always fast rising cross-correlations whether it is on asset classes or single stocks. The chart below shows the 10-day moving cross-correlation in the Ark Innovation ETF since early 2020. It has recently moved to around 0.6 and while it is not a new record the direction is up and has been fast coming from only 0.2 from a few weeks ago. The next week will be critical for the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk cluster as negative feedback loops can be violent and very unpredictable in their outcome.</p><p><blockquote>风险失控的最佳迹象总是快速上升的交叉相关性，无论是资产类别还是单一股票。下图显示了Ark Innovation ETF自2020年初以来的10天移动互相关性。它最近已经移动到0.6左右，虽然这不是一个新的记录，但方向是上升的，并且已经从几周前的0.2快速上升。下周对于特斯拉-比特币-方舟风险集群来说至关重要，因为负反馈循环可能是暴力的，其结果非常不可预测。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab96aaafda10c2371b1d3a1a14c4a48a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"280\"><i>Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社和盛宝集团</i></blockquote></p><p> Another way of looking at risk is by plotting Ark Innovation ETF drawdowns against that of Nasdaq 100 since December 2015.<b>The ETF has typically experienced a drawdown that is 1.22 times larger than that of Nasdaq 100</b>. As of yesterday, the ratio stands at 2.44 and thus illustrates that something idiosyncratic is taking place at Ark Innovation ETF.</p><p><blockquote>看待风险的另一种方法是将Ark Innovation ETF的回撤与2015年12月以来纳斯达克100指数的回撤进行比较。<b>该ETF的跌幅通常是纳斯达克100指数的1.22倍</b>截至昨天，该比率为2.44，因此表明Ark Innovation ETF正在发生一些特殊的事情。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80db26e42e2910071718ff22a1ff3f2b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"308\"><b>If outflows continue today and Tesla comes under pressure again then this indicator could very well hit a new record in terms of being an outlier signaling a negative feedback loop on risk has started.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>如果今天资金外流继续，特斯拉再次面临压力，那么该指标很可能会创下新纪录，成为一个异常值，表明风险负反馈循环已经开始。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>'Build Me An Ark': The Tsunami Of Risk Of Tesla-Bitcoin-Cathie Wood Is Coming<blockquote>“为我建造一艘方舟”：特斯拉-比特币-凯西·伍德的风险海啸即将到来</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n'Build Me An Ark': The Tsunami Of Risk Of Tesla-Bitcoin-Cathie Wood Is Coming<blockquote>“为我建造一艘方舟”：特斯拉-比特币-凯西·伍德的风险海啸即将到来</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-01 20:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><u><b>Summary:</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>摘要：</b></u></blockquote></p><p>   In today's equity update we are following up on our  <b>analysis of the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk cluster</b>showing an updated positions analysis, cross-correlations in the flagship Ark Innovation ETF, and an drawdown analysis. Yesterday, was another bad session for this risk cluster and Ark Invest had a day with outflows across all their ETFs highlighting that risk sentiment has changed. With the founder's bold move to increase the position in Tesla during the week the risk has gone up that this risk cluster could turn into an ugly forced selling dynamic causing pain in not only Tesla, Bitcoin, and Ark funds, but also US biotechnology stocks where Ark Invest is a major holder with high ownership in selected names.  A little over a month ago we first flagged the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk cluster as something to take note off as short-term correlation between Tesla and Bitcoin was shooting up. A survey from Charles Schwab also confirmed our suspicion that there is a big overlap as these two instruments are among the top five holdings by millennials. Our analysis quickly led us to Ark Invest with its famous Ark Innovation ETF which had a big position in Tesla and its charismatic founder Cathie Wood is a big believer in the so-called disruptive innovation culture of Silicon Valley. This class of people believe firmly in technology as mainly good for society in all its aspects and that&nbsp;Bitcoin is a protection against future wealth confiscation&nbsp;which is most likely inevitable due to historically high wealth inequality.</p><p><blockquote>在今天的股票更新中，我们将跟进我们的<b>特斯拉-比特币-方舟风险集群分析</b>显示了最新的头寸分析、旗舰Ark Innovation ETF的互相关性以及回撤分析。昨天是该风险集群的又一个糟糕交易日，Ark Invest的所有ETF都出现资金外流，突显出风险情绪已经发生变化。随着创始人本周大胆增持特斯拉头寸，这一风险集群可能演变成丑陋的强制抛售动态的风险已经上升，不仅会给特斯拉、比特币和Ark基金带来痛苦，也会给美国生物科技股带来痛苦。Ark Invest是主要持有人，在选定的名称中拥有大量所有权。一个多月前，随着特斯拉和比特币之间的短期相关性不断上升，我们首次将特斯拉-比特币-方舟风险集群标记为值得注意的问题。嘉信理财的一项调查也证实了我们的怀疑，即存在很大重叠，因为这两种工具是千禧一代持有的前五大工具之一。我们的分析很快让我们找到了Ark Invest及其著名的Ark Innovation ETF，该ETF在特斯拉拥有大量头寸，其魅力四射的创始人Cathie Wood是硅谷所谓颠覆性创新文化的忠实信徒。这一类人坚信技术在各个方面对社会都有好处，比特币是防止未来财富被没收的一种保护，由于历史上高度的财富不平等，这很可能是不可避免的。</blockquote></p><p> This disruptive innovation culture is powerful. It is presented by some of the wealthiest people of this planet. Endless presentation about innovation and institutions like the Singularity University promote these views. Behind Bitcoin you find a huge online marketing machine sucking ordinary people into the game. Recently wealthy people such as Elon Musk has openly supported Bitcoin, first in writing and later in action adding $1.5bn to Tesla’s balance sheet and thereby significantly increasing its earnings volatility. The triangle of Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark and their respective momentum has reinforced each other creating a positive feedback loop luring more investors into these instruments. As we have seen this week the ‘tower of risk’ is beginning to show cracks.</p><p><blockquote>这种颠覆性的创新文化是强大的。它是由这个星球上一些最富有的人提出的。关于创新和奇点大学等机构的无休止的介绍促进了这些观点。在比特币背后，你会发现一个巨大的在线营销机器，将普通人吸进游戏中。最近，Elon Musk等富人公开支持比特币，先是以书面形式，后来又采取行动，为特斯拉的资产负债表增加了15亿美元，从而显着增加了其盈利波动性。特斯拉-比特币-方舟三角及其各自的势头相互加强，创造了一个正反馈循环，吸引更多投资者进入这些工具。正如我们本周所看到的，“风险之塔”开始出现裂缝。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ark position update and Cathie Wood’s bold move and the risk to biotechnology</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Ark立场更新和Cathie Wood的大胆举措以及生物技术面临的风险</b></blockquote></p><p> This week Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark all came under pressure from negative voices in governments over Bitcoin and beginning noise over real competition for Tesla in the coming years. The risk cluster was clearly moving together, and correlations started rising. On Tuesday, volatility picked up across the board and at one point Cathie Wood felt it was necessary to go public supporting her funds and said that&nbsp;she had increased their position in Tesla&nbsp;using big numbers in the future to justify increasing the risk. This is a bold move, but it increases the risk considerably. When you are at risk of seeing sizeable outflows, you should start reducing the most illiquid positions first while you can control the situation. Because if you are forced to do it by redemptions the game changes dramatically.</p><p><blockquote>本周，特斯拉-比特币-方舟都面临着来自政府对比特币的负面声音的压力，以及未来几年特斯拉真正竞争的噪音。风险集群显然在一起移动，相关性开始上升。周二，波动性全面加剧，凯西·伍德(Cathie Wood)一度认为有必要上市支持她的基金，并表示她已经增加了在特斯拉的头寸，并在未来利用大量数据来证明增加风险的合理性。这是一个大胆的举动，但它大大增加了风险。当你面临大量资金外流的风险时，你应该在你能控制局面的时候，首先开始减少流动性最差的头寸。因为如果你被迫这样做，游戏就会发生巨大的变化。</blockquote></p><p> The tables below show updated Ark Invest positions as of yesterday’s close. There are still 26 stocks where Ark Invest holds more than 10% of the outstanding shares. This could become a serious problem if Ark Invest is suddenly caught in a negative feedback loop together with Tesla and Bitcoin. But also note how US biotechnology stocks are overrepresented in this list of stocks with high ownership in percentage of outstanding shares. If Ark Invest suddenly experience across the board outflows, like it did yesterday, then they can suddenly be the forced seller in US biotechnology stocks where they are the whale. This could cascade into the overall US biotechnology segment although the group is diverse.</p><p><blockquote>下表显示了截至昨天收盘时更新的Ark Invest头寸。Ark Invest持有流通股比例超过10%的个股仍有26只。如果Ark Invest突然与特斯拉和比特币一起陷入负反馈循环，这可能会成为一个严重的问题。但也请注意，美国生物技术股票在这份占流通股比例较高的股票列表中所占比例过高。如果Ark Invest突然经历全面资金外流，就像昨天一样，那么他们可能会突然成为美国生物科技股的被迫卖家，而他们是鲸鱼。尽管该集团是多元化的，但这可能会波及整个美国生物技术领域。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Stocks held by Ark Invest funds with combined ownership above 10% of outstanding shares</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Ark Invest基金持有的合计持股比例超过流通股10%的股票</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97684f80243d32efc06f3379d51d4fb\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"353\">Source: Ark Invest, Bloomberg, and Saxo Group</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：Ark Invest、彭博社和盛宝集团</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The table below shows the largest positions across all funds. Here Tesla has now jumped to 7% of AUM and the first five positions now account for 21.6% of AUM. The five biggest stocks are Tesla, Teladoc Health, Square, Roku, and Baidu. Square just recently reported disappointing Q4 earnings and announced the purchase of $170mn of Bitcoin increasing the risk and feedback loop further in this risk cluster. In the Ark Innovation ETF itself, Tesla is now 10.2% of assets and together with Roku (6%) and Square (5.4%) these three stocks represent 21.6% of assets. If you look at the 10 largest positions in the Ark Innovation ETF then the red thread is that they all come with very high equity valuations and thus low implied equity risk premiums. They are all also mostly equity financed, except for Tesla, which means that the WACC, cost of capital, predominantly come from the cost of equity. With low implied equity risk premiums, the risk-free rate dominates much more than for a company such as say Microsoft or Apple. This means that the rising interest rates could suddenly cause a huge shift in equity valuations. Not because the future is different but because the cost of capital has changed.</p><p><blockquote>下表显示了所有基金的最大头寸。在这里，特斯拉现在已经跃升至资产管理规模的7%，前五个职位现在占资产管理规模的21.6%。最大的五只股票是特斯拉、Teladoc Health、Square、Roku和百度。Square最近刚刚公布了令人失望的第四季度收益，并宣布以1.7亿美元收购比特币，进一步增加了该风险集群的风险和反馈循环。在Ark Innovation ETF本身中，特斯拉目前占资产的10.2%，加上Roku(6%)和Square(5.4%)，这三只股票占资产的21.6%。如果你看看Ark Innovation ETF中最大的10个头寸，那么红线是它们都具有非常高的股票估值，因此隐含的股票风险溢价较低。除特斯拉外，它们也主要是股权融资，这意味着WACC（资本成本）主要来自股权成本。由于隐含股权风险溢价较低，无风险利率比微软或苹果等公司占据主导地位。这意味着利率上升可能会突然导致股票估值发生巨大变化。不是因为未来不同，而是因为资本成本发生了变化。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Top positions in terms of Ark Invest AUM across all funds</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Ark Invest所有基金的资产管理规模排名靠前</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e06fcb66d5a52e629b48c9cab492586\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"302\">Source: Ark Invest, Bloomberg, and Saxo Group</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：Ark Invest、彭博社和盛宝集团</blockquote></p><p> <u><b>Correlations on the rise and drawdown outlier</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>上涨和下跌异常值的相关性</b></u></blockquote></p><p> The best sign of risk going haywire is always fast rising cross-correlations whether it is on asset classes or single stocks. The chart below shows the 10-day moving cross-correlation in the Ark Innovation ETF since early 2020. It has recently moved to around 0.6 and while it is not a new record the direction is up and has been fast coming from only 0.2 from a few weeks ago. The next week will be critical for the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk cluster as negative feedback loops can be violent and very unpredictable in their outcome.</p><p><blockquote>风险失控的最佳迹象总是快速上升的交叉相关性，无论是资产类别还是单一股票。下图显示了Ark Innovation ETF自2020年初以来的10天移动互相关性。它最近已经移动到0.6左右，虽然这不是一个新的记录，但方向是上升的，并且已经从几周前的0.2快速上升。下周对于特斯拉-比特币-方舟风险集群来说至关重要，因为负反馈循环可能是暴力的，其结果非常不可预测。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab96aaafda10c2371b1d3a1a14c4a48a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"280\"><i>Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社和盛宝集团</i></blockquote></p><p> Another way of looking at risk is by plotting Ark Innovation ETF drawdowns against that of Nasdaq 100 since December 2015.<b>The ETF has typically experienced a drawdown that is 1.22 times larger than that of Nasdaq 100</b>. As of yesterday, the ratio stands at 2.44 and thus illustrates that something idiosyncratic is taking place at Ark Innovation ETF.</p><p><blockquote>看待风险的另一种方法是将Ark Innovation ETF的回撤与2015年12月以来纳斯达克100指数的回撤进行比较。<b>该ETF的跌幅通常是纳斯达克100指数的1.22倍</b>截至昨天，该比率为2.44，因此表明Ark Innovation ETF正在发生一些特殊的事情。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80db26e42e2910071718ff22a1ff3f2b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"308\"><b>If outflows continue today and Tesla comes under pressure again then this indicator could very well hit a new record in terms of being an outlier signaling a negative feedback loop on risk has started.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>如果今天资金外流继续，特斯拉再次面临压力，那么该指标很可能会创下新纪录，成为一个异常值，表明风险负反馈循环已经开始。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/build-me-ark-tsunami-risk-tesla-bitcoin-cathie-wood-coming\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","ARKR":"Ark Restaurants Corp","ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF","GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale","ARKW":"ARK Next Generation Internet ETF","ARKF":"ARK Fintech Innovation ETF","ARKQ":"ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF","ARKG":"ARK Genomic Revolution ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/build-me-ark-tsunami-risk-tesla-bitcoin-cathie-wood-coming","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105841550","content_text":"Summary:\n\n In today's equity update we are following up on our\n analysis of the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk clustershowing an updated positions analysis, cross-correlations in the flagship Ark Innovation ETF, and an drawdown analysis. Yesterday, was another bad session for this risk cluster and Ark Invest had a day with outflows across all their ETFs highlighting that risk sentiment has changed. With the founder's bold move to increase the position in Tesla during the week the risk has gone up that this risk cluster could turn into an ugly forced selling dynamic causing pain in not only Tesla, Bitcoin, and Ark funds, but also US biotechnology stocks where Ark Invest is a major holder with high ownership in selected names.\n\nA little over a month ago we first flagged the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk cluster as something to take note off as short-term correlation between Tesla and Bitcoin was shooting up. A survey from Charles Schwab also confirmed our suspicion that there is a big overlap as these two instruments are among the top five holdings by millennials. Our analysis quickly led us to Ark Invest with its famous Ark Innovation ETF which had a big position in Tesla and its charismatic founder Cathie Wood is a big believer in the so-called disruptive innovation culture of Silicon Valley. This class of people believe firmly in technology as mainly good for society in all its aspects and that Bitcoin is a protection against future wealth confiscation which is most likely inevitable due to historically high wealth inequality.\nThis disruptive innovation culture is powerful. It is presented by some of the wealthiest people of this planet. Endless presentation about innovation and institutions like the Singularity University promote these views. Behind Bitcoin you find a huge online marketing machine sucking ordinary people into the game. Recently wealthy people such as Elon Musk has openly supported Bitcoin, first in writing and later in action adding $1.5bn to Tesla’s balance sheet and thereby significantly increasing its earnings volatility. The triangle of Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark and their respective momentum has reinforced each other creating a positive feedback loop luring more investors into these instruments. As we have seen this week the ‘tower of risk’ is beginning to show cracks.\nArk position update and Cathie Wood’s bold move and the risk to biotechnology\nThis week Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark all came under pressure from negative voices in governments over Bitcoin and beginning noise over real competition for Tesla in the coming years. The risk cluster was clearly moving together, and correlations started rising. On Tuesday, volatility picked up across the board and at one point Cathie Wood felt it was necessary to go public supporting her funds and said that she had increased their position in Tesla using big numbers in the future to justify increasing the risk. This is a bold move, but it increases the risk considerably. When you are at risk of seeing sizeable outflows, you should start reducing the most illiquid positions first while you can control the situation. Because if you are forced to do it by redemptions the game changes dramatically.\nThe tables below show updated Ark Invest positions as of yesterday’s close. There are still 26 stocks where Ark Invest holds more than 10% of the outstanding shares. This could become a serious problem if Ark Invest is suddenly caught in a negative feedback loop together with Tesla and Bitcoin. But also note how US biotechnology stocks are overrepresented in this list of stocks with high ownership in percentage of outstanding shares. If Ark Invest suddenly experience across the board outflows, like it did yesterday, then they can suddenly be the forced seller in US biotechnology stocks where they are the whale. This could cascade into the overall US biotechnology segment although the group is diverse.\nStocks held by Ark Invest funds with combined ownership above 10% of outstanding shares\nSource: Ark Invest, Bloomberg, and Saxo Group\nThe table below shows the largest positions across all funds. Here Tesla has now jumped to 7% of AUM and the first five positions now account for 21.6% of AUM. The five biggest stocks are Tesla, Teladoc Health, Square, Roku, and Baidu. Square just recently reported disappointing Q4 earnings and announced the purchase of $170mn of Bitcoin increasing the risk and feedback loop further in this risk cluster. In the Ark Innovation ETF itself, Tesla is now 10.2% of assets and together with Roku (6%) and Square (5.4%) these three stocks represent 21.6% of assets. If you look at the 10 largest positions in the Ark Innovation ETF then the red thread is that they all come with very high equity valuations and thus low implied equity risk premiums. They are all also mostly equity financed, except for Tesla, which means that the WACC, cost of capital, predominantly come from the cost of equity. With low implied equity risk premiums, the risk-free rate dominates much more than for a company such as say Microsoft or Apple. This means that the rising interest rates could suddenly cause a huge shift in equity valuations. Not because the future is different but because the cost of capital has changed.\nTop positions in terms of Ark Invest AUM across all funds\nSource: Ark Invest, Bloomberg, and Saxo Group\nCorrelations on the rise and drawdown outlier\nThe best sign of risk going haywire is always fast rising cross-correlations whether it is on asset classes or single stocks. The chart below shows the 10-day moving cross-correlation in the Ark Innovation ETF since early 2020. It has recently moved to around 0.6 and while it is not a new record the direction is up and has been fast coming from only 0.2 from a few weeks ago. The next week will be critical for the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk cluster as negative feedback loops can be violent and very unpredictable in their outcome.\nSource: Bloomberg and Saxo Group\nAnother way of looking at risk is by plotting Ark Innovation ETF drawdowns against that of Nasdaq 100 since December 2015.The ETF has typically experienced a drawdown that is 1.22 times larger than that of Nasdaq 100. As of yesterday, the ratio stands at 2.44 and thus illustrates that something idiosyncratic is taking place at Ark Innovation ETF.\nIf outflows continue today and Tesla comes under pressure again then this indicator could very well hit a new record in terms of being an outlier signaling a negative feedback loop on risk has 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job&nbsp;","listText":"Good job&nbsp;","text":"Good 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18:00","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"STI closes marginally higher by 0.13%, with all eyes on Budget 2021<blockquote>STI收盘小幅上涨0.13%，所有人都关注2021年预算</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174892130","media":"businesstimes","summary":"SINGAPORE shares extended marginal gains for the second straight day as all eyes were on the nation'","content":"<p><div> SINGAPORE shares extended marginal gains for the second straight day as all eyes were on the nation's Budget 2021, which, among other things, extended the much-needed wage support to the hardest-hit ...</p><p><blockquote><div>新加坡股市连续第二天小幅上涨，因为所有人的目光都集中在该国的2021年预算上，除其他外，该预算将急需的工资支持扩大到了受灾最严重的国家...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"http://businesstimes.com.sg/stocks/sti-closes-marginally-higher-by-013-with-all-eyes-on-budget-2021\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"http://businesstimes.com.sg/stocks/sti-closes-marginally-higher-by-013-with-all-eyes-on-budget-2021\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1607307803821","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>STI closes marginally higher by 0.13%, with all eyes on Budget 2021<blockquote>STI收盘小幅上涨0.13%，所有人都关注2021年预算</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSTI closes marginally higher by 0.13%, with all eyes on Budget 2021<blockquote>STI收盘小幅上涨0.13%，所有人都关注2021年预算</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">businesstimes</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-16 18:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> SINGAPORE shares extended marginal gains for the second straight day as all eyes were on the nation's Budget 2021, which, among other things, extended the much-needed wage support to the hardest-hit ...</p><p><blockquote><div>新加坡股市连续第二天小幅上涨，因为所有人的目光都集中在该国的2021年预算上，除其他外，该预算将急需的工资支持扩大到了受灾最严重的国家...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"http://businesstimes.com.sg/stocks/sti-closes-marginally-higher-by-013-with-all-eyes-on-budget-2021\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"http://businesstimes.com.sg/stocks/sti-closes-marginally-higher-by-013-with-all-eyes-on-budget-2021\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"http://businesstimes.com.sg/stocks/sti-closes-marginally-higher-by-013-with-all-eyes-on-budget-2021\">businesstimes</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"STI.SI":"富时新加坡海峡指数"},"source_url":"http://businesstimes.com.sg/stocks/sti-closes-marginally-higher-by-013-with-all-eyes-on-budget-2021","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174892130","content_text":"SINGAPORE shares extended marginal gains for the second straight day as all eyes were on the nation's Budget 2021, which, among other things, extended the much-needed wage support to the hardest-hit sectors in the pandemic, and provided households more spending power.\nThe key Straits Times Index finished at 2,935.34 after advancing 3.82 points or 0.13 per cent. Key regional gauges in Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea and Australia also chalked up gains; Malaysia bucked the general trend and finished in the red.\nSentiments in equities stayed upbeat, owing to the same confluence of factors from US stimulus package, dovish central banks and vaccine roll-outs that have picked up pace. Also, while Wall Street had an off-day on Monday with the Presidents' Day holiday, the futures indicated continued gains as it starts the week on Tuesday, adding to the cheery mood.\nOn the local bourse, turnover stood at 2.69 billion worth S$1.12 billion. Gains were led by DBS, Singtel and Wilmar International.\nComfortDelGro fell one Singapore cent or 0.6 per cent to S$1.57. DBS Group Research issued a \"buy\" rating on the counter with a 12-month target price of S$1.99, saying that a recovery is on the cards and the current price seems \"unjustifiably low\". This followed the land transport operator's FY2020 results, in which it announced a 77 per cent drop in net profit to S$61.8 million from a year ago, as revenue fell 17 per cent to S$3.22 billion owing to pandemic-led lockdowns across the countries where it operates.\nMapletree Logistics Trust (MLT) closed unchanged at S$1.95. MLT manager announced late on Monday that it has acquired five freehold logistics properties in South Korea for 280 billion won (S$336 million).","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"STI.SI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":505,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382043771,"gmtCreate":1613317063493,"gmtModify":1634553950213,"author":{"id":"3557291191459072","authorId":"3557291191459072","name":"Slmlmlmlmlml","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f06a8d77f57be0f0ccb485e2f711bdd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557291191459072","idStr":"3557291191459072"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice&nbsp;","listText":"Nice&nbsp;","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382043771","repostId":"2110026963","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":422,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":388891105,"gmtCreate":1613044349607,"gmtModify":1703768707229,"author":{"id":"3557291191459072","authorId":"3557291191459072","name":"Slmlmlmlmlml","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f06a8d77f57be0f0ccb485e2f711bdd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557291191459072","idStr":"3557291191459072"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/388891105","repostId":"2110204192","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":251,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":381805630,"gmtCreate":1612950399620,"gmtModify":1703767321364,"author":{"id":"3557291191459072","authorId":"3557291191459072","name":"Slmlmlmlmlml","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f06a8d77f57be0f0ccb485e2f711bdd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557291191459072","idStr":"3557291191459072"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/381805630","repostId":"2110090454","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":266,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":383865371,"gmtCreate":1612865163093,"gmtModify":1703765982421,"author":{"id":"3557291191459072","authorId":"3557291191459072","name":"Slmlmlmlmlml","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f06a8d77f57be0f0ccb485e2f711bdd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557291191459072","idStr":"3557291191459072"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gone&nbsp;","listText":"Gone&nbsp;","text":"Gone","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/383865371","repostId":"1149038980","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149038980","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612864337,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1149038980?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-09 17:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"These 12 lessons from the GameStop and AMC frenzy can help you make money trading stocks (or at least lose less)<blockquote>游戏驿站和AMC狂潮的这12个教训可以帮助您通过股票交易赚钱（或至少损失更少）</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149038980","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"I can hear the cries from investors who racked up huge profits in GameStop or AMC Entertainment Hold","content":"<p>I can hear the cries from investors who racked up huge profits in GameStop&nbsp;or AMC Entertainment Holdings&nbsp;for a few hours or days, only to watch their gains evaporate.</p><p><blockquote>我可以听到投资者的呼声，他们在游戏驿站或AMC院线控股公司中获得了几个小时或几天的巨额利润，却眼睁睁地看着他们的收益蒸发。</blockquote></p><p> This coordinated bull raid was initiated by thousands of retail investors on Reddit, a popular website forum. We heard stories of fortunes made and lost. The ones we didn’t hear were from the folks in-between — small retail traders and investors who suffered thousands of dollars (or more) in losses.</p><p><blockquote>这场协同的牛市突袭是由热门网站论坛Reddit上的数千名散户投资者发起的。我们听到了财富创造和损失的故事。我们没有听到的是介于两者之间的人——遭受数千美元（或更多）损失的小型散户交易者和投资者。</blockquote></p><p> For those still holding GME or AMC, or for those eager to pounce on the next volatile meme stock, I offer the following advice based on personal experience and observations. These are the lessons you must know before you ever get involved in the stock or options market (or if you are holding a winning stock or option):</p><p><blockquote>对于那些仍然持有GME或AMC的人，或者那些渴望抓住下一个波动的模因股票的人，我根据个人经验和观察提供以下建议。以下是您在参与股票或期权市场（或者如果您持有获胜的股票或期权）之前必须了解的经验教训：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Don’t sell stocks or options on products you don’t own:</b>The traders who lost the most money in GameStop and AMC were those who sold “naked” calls and puts (i.e. they sold options on stocks they didn’t own), or those who sold shares short (again, they sold shares on a stock they didn’t own). When using this extremely risky strategy, you can make a fortune if you’re right. If you’re wrong, the losses can be incalculable. In reality, some unwary traders lost tens of thousands of dollars last week on positions that cost a few thousand dollars. Once again, don’t sell anything naked unless you’re a professional, and in this case even the pros lost big on that risky bet.</p><p><blockquote><b>1.不要出售你不拥有的产品的股票或期权：</b>在游戏驿站和AMC损失最大的交易者是那些出售“裸”评级和看跌期权（即他们出售他们不拥有的股票的期权）的交易者，或者那些卖空股票的交易者（同样，他们出售他们不拥有的股票的股票）。当使用这种风险极高的策略时，如果你是对的，你可以发财。如果你错了，损失是无法估量的。事实上，一些粗心的交易者上周在几千美元的头寸上损失了数万美元。再说一次，除非你是专业人士，否则不要裸卖任何东西，在这种情况下，即使是专业人士也会在这个冒险的赌注上损失惨重。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Sell at the “zero point.”</b>&nbsp; Here’s a rule I created: If you have huge gains that disappear and you are at the zero point (i.e. break-even), sell before you have real losses. It’s better to walk away at zero than with losses.</p><p><blockquote><b>2.在“零点”卖出。</b>我制定了一条规则：如果你的巨额收益消失了，而你处于零点（即盈亏平衡），在你真正亏损之前卖出。零分离开总比亏损好。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Don’t be a stubborn seller:</b>Why is it so hard for most traders to walk away at the zero point? Stubbornness. Many traders made huge gains last week only to watch those profits disappear. They refused to sell because they hoped to make their money back. If holding options, that’s not going to happen. (If you bought at or near the high, your money is gone. If you hold a stock, plan to wait months or even years to recover. Stubborn stockholders often end up as “stuckholders.”</p><p><blockquote><b>3.不要做固执的卖家：</b>为什么大多数交易者很难在零点离开？固执。许多交易者上周获得了巨大的收益，却眼睁睁地看着这些利润消失。他们拒绝出售，因为他们希望把钱赚回来。如果持有期权，这种情况就不会发生。（如果你在高点或附近买入，你的钱就没了。如果你持有一只股票，计划等待几个月甚至几年才能恢复。顽固的股东往往最终成为“持卡人”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Take the money and run:</b>When you are holding a stock or option position that brings outsized profits, either sell half of your holding or all of it — but get out. I call this “selling at extremes.” Sell something when the profits are beyond your wildest expectations. We all know the story of the gambler who wins big at the casino, but doesn’t leave the table until all his money is gone. Know when to walk away from the computer. Profits are fleeting, especially when volatility skyrockets.</p><p><blockquote><b>4.拿了钱就跑：</b>当你持有一个能带来巨额利润的股票或期权头寸时，要么卖出一半，要么全部——但要退出。我看涨期权这个“极端销售”。当利润超出你最疯狂的预期时，卖掉一些东西。我们都知道一个赌徒的故事，他在赌场赢了大钱，但直到他所有的钱都花光了才离开牌桌。知道什么时候离开电脑。利润转瞬即逝，尤其是当波动性飙升时。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5.Trade small when making longshot trades (i.e. gambling):</b>GameStop and AMC were both big gambles, and for a time the trade worked if you were long. But if you bet wrong? I spoke to a few of these traders. One lost $8,000 on a single option contract. If he had traded his normal size (30 contracts), he told me, his losses would have been more than $240,000.</p><p><blockquote><b>5.进行长期交易（即赌博）时进行小额交易：</b>游戏驿站和AMC都是豪赌，有一段时间，如果你做多，交易就会奏效。但如果你赌错了呢？我和其中一些交易员谈过。一个人在一份期权合约上损失了8,000美元。他告诉我，如果他交易的是正常规模（30份合约），他的损失将超过24万美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6. Don’t expect this trading frenzy to keep happening:</b>It’s possible that a group of traders on the Reddit forum will band together for more bear- or bull raids. Except Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed Chair Jerome Powell are most likely creating new rules to prevent this from repeating. The Fed hates volatility and will do everything in its power to keep the markets calm. So once again, when you make big money on a trade, take the money as fast as you can — because you may not get the chance again.</p><p><blockquote><b>6.不要指望这种交易狂潮会一直发生：</b>Reddit论坛上的一群交易者可能会联合起来进行更多的熊市或牛市袭击。除了财政部长珍妮特·耶伦和美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔很可能会制定新规则来防止这种情况再次发生。美联储讨厌波动，并将尽一切努力保持市场平静。所以，再一次，当你在一笔交易中赚了大钱时，尽快拿钱——因为你可能不会再有机会了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>7. Stop bragging about how much money you made</b>: Many traders who won big immediately bragged on social media (and to their jealous friends) about how much money they made on this trade. Yet the euphoric feeling they had was temporary. It usually goes away after all the money is gone. The smart (and polite) traders took their gains and kept the win to themselves</p><p><blockquote><b>7.不要吹嘘你赚了多少钱</b>：许多赢得大奖的交易者立即在社交媒体上（以及向嫉妒的朋友）吹嘘他们在这笔交易中赚了多少钱。然而，他们的兴奋感是暂时的。一般钱都没了就没了。聪明（和礼貌）的交易者拿走了他们的收益，并把胜利留给了自己</blockquote></p><p> <b>8. Use a time stop:</b>Time stops are not well-known or popular, but with fast-moving stocks (or when trading options), they are invaluable. In an extremely fast market, the traditional stop-limit order won’t get filled, as many of those meme-stock traders found out the hard way. Instead, after making a huge profit, set a day or time to sell. For example, you may sell the position by Friday no matter what (although selling at extremes is better — see Rule #4).</p><p><blockquote><b>8.使用时间停止：</b>时间止损并不广为人知或流行，但对于快速波动的股票（或交易期权时），它们是无价的。在速度极快的市场中，传统的限价止损单不会被执行，正如许多模因股票交易者艰难地发现的那样。而是在获得巨额利润后，设定一个卖出的日期或时间。例如，无论如何，你都可以在周五之前卖出头寸（尽管在极端情况下卖出更好——见规则4）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>9. Sell half or all of the position:</b>It’s never an easy decision to know when to sell. If you sell too early, it’s annoying to watch the stock go higher. Sell too late and you lose money. Selling half of your holding is a reasonable alternative, but you must be prepared to sell the other half if the position goes against you.</p><p><blockquote><b>9.卖出一半或全部仓位：</b>知道何时出售从来都不是一个容易的决定。如果你卖得太早，看着股票走高会很烦人。卖得太晚，你就会赔钱。出售一半持股是一个合理的选择，但如果头寸对您不利，您必须准备好出售另一半。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>10. Don’t seek revenge when you lose money on a stock:</b>It’s common for traders to seek revenge on a stock they lost money on. Do not fall for this emotional trap. If you lost money on a stock, let it go and move on.</p><p><blockquote><b>10.当你在股票上亏损时不要寻求报复：</b>交易者对亏损的股票进行报复是很常见的。不要落入这个情感陷阱。如果你在一只股票上亏了钱，就让它过去，继续前进。</blockquote></p><p> <b>11. Trade small after you made or lost big:</b>If you’re feeling emotional about a stock, including feelings of anger or revenge, trade small. Many people who hit it big in the market can’t help but make bigger and bigger bets. Just like the gamblers at a casino, they keep trading until all their money is gone.</p><p><blockquote><b>11.在你赚了大钱或亏了大钱之后进行小额交易：</b>如果您对一只股票感到情绪化，包括愤怒或报复的感觉，请少量交易。很多在市场上大获全胜的人，都忍不住下了越来越大的赌注。就像赌场里的赌徒一样，他们不断交易，直到所有的钱都花光。</blockquote></p><p> You don’t think it can happen to you? One of the greatest speculators in the world, Jesse Livermore, made $100 million dollars in a single week in 1929. He then lost all of his money within five years. He should have moved most of his profits out of the market after his big win and traded small for the next year. Instead, he got reckless and lost it all.</p><p><blockquote>你觉得这不会发生在你身上吗？1929年，世界上最伟大的投机者之一杰西·利弗莫尔在一周内赚了1亿美元。然后他在五年内失去了所有的钱。他应该在大获全胜后将大部分利润撤出市场，并在第二年进行小额交易。相反，他变得鲁莽，失去了一切。</blockquote></p><p> <b>12. Don’t take on too much risk:</b>Never invest or trade with so much money that if you lost, you’d lose your house or 401(k). Brokers told me about clients who cleared out their retirement funds or took cash advances on their credit cards so they could buy GameStop and AMC. Some won, some lost, but many took on way too much risk.</p><p><blockquote><b>12.不要承担太多风险：</b>永远不要用太多的钱投资或交易，如果你输了，你就会失去你的房子或401(k)。经纪人告诉我，一些客户清空了退休基金或从信用卡上预支现金，以便购买游戏驿站和AMC。有些人赢了，有些人输了，但许多人冒了太多的风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The meme-stock pyramid scheme</b></p><p><blockquote><b>模因股票金字塔计划</b></blockquote></p><p> Those who traded GameStop, AMC and other meme stocks thought they were trading, but they were actually participating in a gigantic pyramid scheme. Those who got in early and got out early probably did well. Those who entered late or held too long lost money.</p><p><blockquote>那些交易游戏驿站、AMC和其他模因股票的人以为他们在交易，但他们实际上是在参与一个巨大的金字塔计划。那些早进早出的人可能做得很好。那些进入较晚或持有时间过长的人亏损了。</blockquote></p><p> My advice: Review these 12 rules periodically. They are based on the experiences and the bad luck of thousands of other traders, including myself, who thought we were smarter than the market. In truth the market was smarter than us — because it always is.</p><p><blockquote>我的建议是：定期回顾这12条规则。它们是基于成千上万其他交易者的经验和坏运气，包括我自己，他们认为我们比市场更聪明。事实上，市场比我们聪明——因为它总是如此。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>These 12 lessons from the GameStop and AMC frenzy can help you make money trading stocks (or at least lose less)<blockquote>游戏驿站和AMC狂潮的这12个教训可以帮助您通过股票交易赚钱（或至少损失更少）</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThese 12 lessons from the GameStop and AMC frenzy can help you make money trading stocks (or at least lose less)<blockquote>游戏驿站和AMC狂潮的这12个教训可以帮助您通过股票交易赚钱（或至少损失更少）</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-09 17:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>I can hear the cries from investors who racked up huge profits in GameStop&nbsp;or AMC Entertainment Holdings&nbsp;for a few hours or days, only to watch their gains evaporate.</p><p><blockquote>我可以听到投资者的呼声，他们在游戏驿站或AMC院线控股公司中获得了几个小时或几天的巨额利润，却眼睁睁地看着他们的收益蒸发。</blockquote></p><p> This coordinated bull raid was initiated by thousands of retail investors on Reddit, a popular website forum. We heard stories of fortunes made and lost. The ones we didn’t hear were from the folks in-between — small retail traders and investors who suffered thousands of dollars (or more) in losses.</p><p><blockquote>这场协同的牛市突袭是由热门网站论坛Reddit上的数千名散户投资者发起的。我们听到了财富创造和损失的故事。我们没有听到的是介于两者之间的人——遭受数千美元（或更多）损失的小型散户交易者和投资者。</blockquote></p><p> For those still holding GME or AMC, or for those eager to pounce on the next volatile meme stock, I offer the following advice based on personal experience and observations. These are the lessons you must know before you ever get involved in the stock or options market (or if you are holding a winning stock or option):</p><p><blockquote>对于那些仍然持有GME或AMC的人，或者那些渴望抓住下一个波动的模因股票的人，我根据个人经验和观察提供以下建议。以下是您在参与股票或期权市场（或者如果您持有获胜的股票或期权）之前必须了解的经验教训：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Don’t sell stocks or options on products you don’t own:</b>The traders who lost the most money in GameStop and AMC were those who sold “naked” calls and puts (i.e. they sold options on stocks they didn’t own), or those who sold shares short (again, they sold shares on a stock they didn’t own). When using this extremely risky strategy, you can make a fortune if you’re right. If you’re wrong, the losses can be incalculable. In reality, some unwary traders lost tens of thousands of dollars last week on positions that cost a few thousand dollars. Once again, don’t sell anything naked unless you’re a professional, and in this case even the pros lost big on that risky bet.</p><p><blockquote><b>1.不要出售你不拥有的产品的股票或期权：</b>在游戏驿站和AMC损失最大的交易者是那些出售“裸”评级和看跌期权（即他们出售他们不拥有的股票的期权）的交易者，或者那些卖空股票的交易者（同样，他们出售他们不拥有的股票的股票）。当使用这种风险极高的策略时，如果你是对的，你可以发财。如果你错了，损失是无法估量的。事实上，一些粗心的交易者上周在几千美元的头寸上损失了数万美元。再说一次，除非你是专业人士，否则不要裸卖任何东西，在这种情况下，即使是专业人士也会在这个冒险的赌注上损失惨重。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Sell at the “zero point.”</b>&nbsp; Here’s a rule I created: If you have huge gains that disappear and you are at the zero point (i.e. break-even), sell before you have real losses. It’s better to walk away at zero than with losses.</p><p><blockquote><b>2.在“零点”卖出。</b>我制定了一条规则：如果你的巨额收益消失了，而你处于零点（即盈亏平衡），在你真正亏损之前卖出。零分离开总比亏损好。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Don’t be a stubborn seller:</b>Why is it so hard for most traders to walk away at the zero point? Stubbornness. Many traders made huge gains last week only to watch those profits disappear. They refused to sell because they hoped to make their money back. If holding options, that’s not going to happen. (If you bought at or near the high, your money is gone. If you hold a stock, plan to wait months or even years to recover. Stubborn stockholders often end up as “stuckholders.”</p><p><blockquote><b>3.不要做固执的卖家：</b>为什么大多数交易者很难在零点离开？固执。许多交易者上周获得了巨大的收益，却眼睁睁地看着这些利润消失。他们拒绝出售，因为他们希望把钱赚回来。如果持有期权，这种情况就不会发生。（如果你在高点或附近买入，你的钱就没了。如果你持有一只股票，计划等待几个月甚至几年才能恢复。顽固的股东往往最终成为“持卡人”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Take the money and run:</b>When you are holding a stock or option position that brings outsized profits, either sell half of your holding or all of it — but get out. I call this “selling at extremes.” Sell something when the profits are beyond your wildest expectations. We all know the story of the gambler who wins big at the casino, but doesn’t leave the table until all his money is gone. Know when to walk away from the computer. Profits are fleeting, especially when volatility skyrockets.</p><p><blockquote><b>4.拿了钱就跑：</b>当你持有一个能带来巨额利润的股票或期权头寸时，要么卖出一半，要么全部——但要退出。我看涨期权这个“极端销售”。当利润超出你最疯狂的预期时，卖掉一些东西。我们都知道一个赌徒的故事，他在赌场赢了大钱，但直到他所有的钱都花光了才离开牌桌。知道什么时候离开电脑。利润转瞬即逝，尤其是当波动性飙升时。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5.Trade small when making longshot trades (i.e. gambling):</b>GameStop and AMC were both big gambles, and for a time the trade worked if you were long. But if you bet wrong? I spoke to a few of these traders. One lost $8,000 on a single option contract. If he had traded his normal size (30 contracts), he told me, his losses would have been more than $240,000.</p><p><blockquote><b>5.进行长期交易（即赌博）时进行小额交易：</b>游戏驿站和AMC都是豪赌，有一段时间，如果你做多，交易就会奏效。但如果你赌错了呢？我和其中一些交易员谈过。一个人在一份期权合约上损失了8,000美元。他告诉我，如果他交易的是正常规模（30份合约），他的损失将超过24万美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6. Don’t expect this trading frenzy to keep happening:</b>It’s possible that a group of traders on the Reddit forum will band together for more bear- or bull raids. Except Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed Chair Jerome Powell are most likely creating new rules to prevent this from repeating. The Fed hates volatility and will do everything in its power to keep the markets calm. So once again, when you make big money on a trade, take the money as fast as you can — because you may not get the chance again.</p><p><blockquote><b>6.不要指望这种交易狂潮会一直发生：</b>Reddit论坛上的一群交易者可能会联合起来进行更多的熊市或牛市袭击。除了财政部长珍妮特·耶伦和美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔很可能会制定新规则来防止这种情况再次发生。美联储讨厌波动，并将尽一切努力保持市场平静。所以，再一次，当你在一笔交易中赚了大钱时，尽快拿钱——因为你可能不会再有机会了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>7. Stop bragging about how much money you made</b>: Many traders who won big immediately bragged on social media (and to their jealous friends) about how much money they made on this trade. Yet the euphoric feeling they had was temporary. It usually goes away after all the money is gone. The smart (and polite) traders took their gains and kept the win to themselves</p><p><blockquote><b>7.不要吹嘘你赚了多少钱</b>：许多赢得大奖的交易者立即在社交媒体上（以及向嫉妒的朋友）吹嘘他们在这笔交易中赚了多少钱。然而，他们的兴奋感是暂时的。一般钱都没了就没了。聪明（和礼貌）的交易者拿走了他们的收益，并把胜利留给了自己</blockquote></p><p> <b>8. Use a time stop:</b>Time stops are not well-known or popular, but with fast-moving stocks (or when trading options), they are invaluable. In an extremely fast market, the traditional stop-limit order won’t get filled, as many of those meme-stock traders found out the hard way. Instead, after making a huge profit, set a day or time to sell. For example, you may sell the position by Friday no matter what (although selling at extremes is better — see Rule #4).</p><p><blockquote><b>8.使用时间停止：</b>时间止损并不广为人知或流行，但对于快速波动的股票（或交易期权时），它们是无价的。在速度极快的市场中，传统的限价止损单不会被执行，正如许多模因股票交易者艰难地发现的那样。而是在获得巨额利润后，设定一个卖出的日期或时间。例如，无论如何，你都可以在周五之前卖出头寸（尽管在极端情况下卖出更好——见规则4）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>9. Sell half or all of the position:</b>It’s never an easy decision to know when to sell. If you sell too early, it’s annoying to watch the stock go higher. Sell too late and you lose money. Selling half of your holding is a reasonable alternative, but you must be prepared to sell the other half if the position goes against you.</p><p><blockquote><b>9.卖出一半或全部仓位：</b>知道何时出售从来都不是一个容易的决定。如果你卖得太早，看着股票走高会很烦人。卖得太晚，你就会赔钱。出售一半持股是一个合理的选择，但如果头寸对您不利，您必须准备好出售另一半。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>10. Don’t seek revenge when you lose money on a stock:</b>It’s common for traders to seek revenge on a stock they lost money on. Do not fall for this emotional trap. If you lost money on a stock, let it go and move on.</p><p><blockquote><b>10.当你在股票上亏损时不要寻求报复：</b>交易者对亏损的股票进行报复是很常见的。不要落入这个情感陷阱。如果你在一只股票上亏了钱，就让它过去，继续前进。</blockquote></p><p> <b>11. Trade small after you made or lost big:</b>If you’re feeling emotional about a stock, including feelings of anger or revenge, trade small. Many people who hit it big in the market can’t help but make bigger and bigger bets. Just like the gamblers at a casino, they keep trading until all their money is gone.</p><p><blockquote><b>11.在你赚了大钱或亏了大钱之后进行小额交易：</b>如果您对一只股票感到情绪化，包括愤怒或报复的感觉，请少量交易。很多在市场上大获全胜的人，都忍不住下了越来越大的赌注。就像赌场里的赌徒一样，他们不断交易，直到所有的钱都花光。</blockquote></p><p> You don’t think it can happen to you? One of the greatest speculators in the world, Jesse Livermore, made $100 million dollars in a single week in 1929. He then lost all of his money within five years. He should have moved most of his profits out of the market after his big win and traded small for the next year. Instead, he got reckless and lost it all.</p><p><blockquote>你觉得这不会发生在你身上吗？1929年，世界上最伟大的投机者之一杰西·利弗莫尔在一周内赚了1亿美元。然后他在五年内失去了所有的钱。他应该在大获全胜后将大部分利润撤出市场，并在第二年进行小额交易。相反，他变得鲁莽，失去了一切。</blockquote></p><p> <b>12. Don’t take on too much risk:</b>Never invest or trade with so much money that if you lost, you’d lose your house or 401(k). Brokers told me about clients who cleared out their retirement funds or took cash advances on their credit cards so they could buy GameStop and AMC. Some won, some lost, but many took on way too much risk.</p><p><blockquote><b>12.不要承担太多风险：</b>永远不要用太多的钱投资或交易，如果你输了，你就会失去你的房子或401(k)。经纪人告诉我，一些客户清空了退休基金或从信用卡上预支现金，以便购买游戏驿站和AMC。有些人赢了，有些人输了，但许多人冒了太多的风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The meme-stock pyramid scheme</b></p><p><blockquote><b>模因股票金字塔计划</b></blockquote></p><p> Those who traded GameStop, AMC and other meme stocks thought they were trading, but they were actually participating in a gigantic pyramid scheme. Those who got in early and got out early probably did well. Those who entered late or held too long lost money.</p><p><blockquote>那些交易游戏驿站、AMC和其他模因股票的人以为他们在交易，但他们实际上是在参与一个巨大的金字塔计划。那些早进早出的人可能做得很好。那些进入较晚或持有时间过长的人亏损了。</blockquote></p><p> My advice: Review these 12 rules periodically. They are based on the experiences and the bad luck of thousands of other traders, including myself, who thought we were smarter than the market. In truth the market was smarter than us — because it always is.</p><p><blockquote>我的建议是：定期回顾这12条规则。它们是基于成千上万其他交易者的经验和坏运气，包括我自己，他们认为我们比市场更聪明。事实上，市场比我们聪明——因为它总是如此。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-12-lessons-from-the-gamestop-and-amc-frenzy-can-help-you-make-money-trading-stocks-or-at-least-lose-less-11612771522?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线",".DJI":"道琼斯","GME":"游戏驿站",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-12-lessons-from-the-gamestop-and-amc-frenzy-can-help-you-make-money-trading-stocks-or-at-least-lose-less-11612771522?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1149038980","content_text":"I can hear the cries from investors who racked up huge profits in GameStop or AMC Entertainment Holdings for a few hours or days, only to watch their gains evaporate.\nThis coordinated bull raid was initiated by thousands of retail investors on Reddit, a popular website forum. We heard stories of fortunes made and lost. The ones we didn’t hear were from the folks in-between — small retail traders and investors who suffered thousands of dollars (or more) in losses.\nFor those still holding GME or AMC, or for those eager to pounce on the next volatile meme stock, I offer the following advice based on personal experience and observations. These are the lessons you must know before you ever get involved in the stock or options market (or if you are holding a winning stock or option):\n1. Don’t sell stocks or options on products you don’t own:The traders who lost the most money in GameStop and AMC were those who sold “naked” calls and puts (i.e. they sold options on stocks they didn’t own), or those who sold shares short (again, they sold shares on a stock they didn’t own). When using this extremely risky strategy, you can make a fortune if you’re right. If you’re wrong, the losses can be incalculable. In reality, some unwary traders lost tens of thousands of dollars last week on positions that cost a few thousand dollars. Once again, don’t sell anything naked unless you’re a professional, and in this case even the pros lost big on that risky bet.\n2. Sell at the “zero point.”  Here’s a rule I created: If you have huge gains that disappear and you are at the zero point (i.e. break-even), sell before you have real losses. It’s better to walk away at zero than with losses.\n3. Don’t be a stubborn seller:Why is it so hard for most traders to walk away at the zero point? Stubbornness. Many traders made huge gains last week only to watch those profits disappear. They refused to sell because they hoped to make their money back. If holding options, that’s not going to happen. (If you bought at or near the high, your money is gone. If you hold a stock, plan to wait months or even years to recover. Stubborn stockholders often end up as “stuckholders.”\n4. Take the money and run:When you are holding a stock or option position that brings outsized profits, either sell half of your holding or all of it — but get out. I call this “selling at extremes.” Sell something when the profits are beyond your wildest expectations. We all know the story of the gambler who wins big at the casino, but doesn’t leave the table until all his money is gone. Know when to walk away from the computer. Profits are fleeting, especially when volatility skyrockets.\n5.Trade small when making longshot trades (i.e. gambling):GameStop and AMC were both big gambles, and for a time the trade worked if you were long. But if you bet wrong? I spoke to a few of these traders. One lost $8,000 on a single option contract. If he had traded his normal size (30 contracts), he told me, his losses would have been more than $240,000.\n6. Don’t expect this trading frenzy to keep happening:It’s possible that a group of traders on the Reddit forum will band together for more bear- or bull raids. Except Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed Chair Jerome Powell are most likely creating new rules to prevent this from repeating. The Fed hates volatility and will do everything in its power to keep the markets calm. So once again, when you make big money on a trade, take the money as fast as you can — because you may not get the chance again.\n7. Stop bragging about how much money you made: Many traders who won big immediately bragged on social media (and to their jealous friends) about how much money they made on this trade. Yet the euphoric feeling they had was temporary. It usually goes away after all the money is gone. The smart (and polite) traders took their gains and kept the win to themselves\n8. Use a time stop:Time stops are not well-known or popular, but with fast-moving stocks (or when trading options), they are invaluable. In an extremely fast market, the traditional stop-limit order won’t get filled, as many of those meme-stock traders found out the hard way. Instead, after making a huge profit, set a day or time to sell. For example, you may sell the position by Friday no matter what (although selling at extremes is better — see Rule #4).\n9. Sell half or all of the position:It’s never an easy decision to know when to sell. If you sell too early, it’s annoying to watch the stock go higher. Sell too late and you lose money. Selling half of your holding is a reasonable alternative, but you must be prepared to sell the other half if the position goes against you.\n10. Don’t seek revenge when you lose money on a stock:It’s common for traders to seek revenge on a stock they lost money on. Do not fall for this emotional trap. If you lost money on a stock, let it go and move on.\n11. Trade small after you made or lost big:If you’re feeling emotional about a stock, including feelings of anger or revenge, trade small. Many people who hit it big in the market can’t help but make bigger and bigger bets. Just like the gamblers at a casino, they keep trading until all their money is gone.\nYou don’t think it can happen to you? One of the greatest speculators in the world, Jesse Livermore, made $100 million dollars in a single week in 1929. He then lost all of his money within five years. He should have moved most of his profits out of the market after his big win and traded small for the next year. Instead, he got reckless and lost it all.\n12. Don’t take on too much risk:Never invest or trade with so much money that if you lost, you’d lose your house or 401(k). Brokers told me about clients who cleared out their retirement funds or took cash advances on their credit cards so they could buy GameStop and AMC. Some won, some lost, but many took on way too much risk.\nThe meme-stock pyramid scheme\nThose who traded GameStop, AMC and other meme stocks thought they were trading, but they were actually participating in a gigantic pyramid scheme. Those who got in early and got out early probably did well. Those who entered late or held too long lost money.\nMy advice: Review these 12 rules periodically. They are based on the experiences and the bad luck of thousands of other traders, including myself, who thought we were smarter than the market. In truth the market was smarter than us — because it always is.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"AMC":0.9,"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":187,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":389692027,"gmtCreate":1612760703969,"gmtModify":1703764683453,"author":{"id":"3557291191459072","authorId":"3557291191459072","name":"Slmlmlmlmlml","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f06a8d77f57be0f0ccb485e2f711bdd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557291191459072","idStr":"3557291191459072"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Diamond hands&nbsp;","listText":"Diamond hands&nbsp;","text":"Diamond hands","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389692027","repostId":"2109772212","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":379,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":389696425,"gmtCreate":1612760657167,"gmtModify":1703764682936,"author":{"id":"3557291191459072","authorId":"3557291191459072","name":"Slmlmlmlmlml","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f06a8d77f57be0f0ccb485e2f711bdd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557291191459072","idStr":"3557291191459072"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Go uber&nbsp;","listText":"Go uber&nbsp;","text":"Go uber","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389696425","repostId":"2109774077","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":446,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":389696392,"gmtCreate":1612760557916,"gmtModify":1703764682253,"author":{"id":"3557291191459072","authorId":"3557291191459072","name":"Slmlmlmlmlml","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f06a8d77f57be0f0ccb485e2f711bdd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557291191459072","idStr":"3557291191459072"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting&nbsp;","listText":"Interesting&nbsp;","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389696392","repostId":"1180268693","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1180268693","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612755259,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1180268693?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-08 11:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where Can Investors Hide as a Bubble Inflates?<blockquote>随着泡沫的膨胀，投资者可以躲在哪里？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180268693","media":"Barrons","summary":"Let’s settle one thing up front. We’re clearly witnessing a speculative bubble in the financial mark","content":"<p>Let’s settle one thing up front. We’re clearly witnessing a speculative bubble in the financial markets. This time is no different. This mania will end the same way they all do: in tears.</p><p><blockquote>让我们先解决一件事。我们显然正在目睹金融市场的投机泡沫。这次也不例外。这种狂热将以他们都做的方式结束：在眼泪中。</blockquote></p><p> I started banging the gong in mid-2020 about the imminent risk of financial crisis stemming from three potential causes: a severe market correction, a deteriorating U.S. fiscal position from unsustainable growth in deficits and debt, and the inflation that was likely to follow.</p><p><blockquote>我在2020年年中开始敲响金融危机迫在眉睫的风险，这些风险源于三个潜在原因：严重的市场调整、赤字和债务不可持续增长导致的美国财政状况恶化，以及可能随之而来的通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> At that time, this viewpoint was greeted with a heavy dose of skepticism. Inflationary views were considered fringe. Respected economists were quick to point out the lack of demand for money relative to rapidly expanding supply, slack in the lockdown economy, and prevailing expectations for deflation based on recent history. Wall Street has little incentive to call a market bubble. Fees are made and bonuses paid when optimism, activity and volatility are high, not by predictions of impending doom. The euphorias of bubbles are like the best narcotics—stimulative and somewhat hypnotic. But the bigger the high, the worse the comedown.</p><p><blockquote>当时，这一观点遭到了强烈的怀疑。通货膨胀观点被认为是边缘观点。受人尊敬的经济学家很快指出，相对于快速扩张的供应，货币需求不足，封锁经济疲软，以及基于近期历史的通货紧缩预期。华尔街几乎没有动力去看涨期权市场泡沫。当乐观情绪、活动和波动性很高时，就会收取费用和支付奖金，而不是通过对即将到来的厄运的预测。泡沫带来的快感就像最好的麻醉剂——既刺激又有点催眠。但高点越大，衰退就越严重。</blockquote></p><p> These contrarian views of inflation and market correction have now become mainstream. The warning signs of market mania are evident inBitcoin(up 300% in a year), the deluge ofSPAC IPOs(always a signal of a top), exorbitantP/E ratios, and rapidly rising real estateprices. These, along with retail-driven short squeezes and mini-bubbles, are symptoms of underlying conditions set in motion long ago by a flood of liquidity unleashed by the Federal Reserve. This time is different, however, in one important way. When this bubble bursts, the Fed can no longer prop up the market by lowering interest rates. Real rates, which were about 4% before the global financial crisis, are now below zero almost everywhere.</p><p><blockquote>这些对通胀和市场回调的逆向观点现已成为主流。市场狂热的警告信号在比特币（一年内上涨300%）、SPAC IPO的泛滥（始终是见顶的信号）、过高的市盈率以及快速上涨的房地产价格中显而易见。这些，以及散户驱动的空头挤压和迷你泡沫，都是美联储很久以前释放的大量流动性引发的潜在状况的症状。然而，这一次在一个重要方面有所不同。当这个泡沫破裂时，美联储就无法再通过降低利率来支撑市场。全球金融危机前的实际利率约为4%，现在几乎所有地方都低于零。</blockquote></p><p> The Biden administration is expected to unleash a blue wave of stimulus and other spending. This comes at a time when the revenue base is eroding, and the U.S. is no longer in a sound fiscal position. It is only a matter of time until government struggles to efficiently borrow against a gaping deficit and compounding debt. In 2020 alone, the U.S. government spent $3 trillion on pandemic relief while suffering a $2.1 trilliondecline in national incomefrom crippling lockdowns in our most economically important states, many of which continue today. By the end of fiscal 2020, total U.S. governmentdebtwas $27 trillion, up 20% from 2019 and triple the amount prior to the financial crisis. The Fed has absorbed a lot of this increase. Bond investors are rightly nervous.</p><p><blockquote>预计拜登政府将推出蓝色刺激和其他支出浪潮。这发生在收入基础正在侵蚀、美国财政状况不再良好的时候。政府难以有效地举债应对不断扩大的赤字和不断增加的债务只是时间问题。仅在2020年，美国政府就在疫情救助上花费了3万亿美元，同时由于我们最重要的经济州的严重封锁，国民收入下降了2.1万亿美元，其中许多州至今仍在继续。截至2020财年末，美国政府债务总额为27万亿美元，比2019年增长20%，是金融危机前的三倍。美联储已经吸收了很多这种增长。债券投资者的紧张是理所当然的。</blockquote></p><p> It is no surprise that the Fed has since adopted apro-inflation stance. An unspoken objective is to erode the topsoil from the mountain of U.S. debt at the expense of Americans. Inflation is a hidden tax that will eat away our purchasing power. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff remind us in<i>This Time is Different</i>that throughout history, “the main device for defaulting on government obligations was… debasing the content of coinage. Modern currency presses are just a technologically advanced and more efficient approach to achieving the same end.” They note, “government debt is… often the unifying problem across the wide range of financial crises.”</p><p><blockquote>毫不奇怪，美联储此后采取了支持通胀的立场。一个不言而喻的目标是以美国人为代价侵蚀美国债务堆积如山的表土。通货膨胀是一种隐性税收，会侵蚀我们的购买力。卡门·莱因哈特和肯尼斯·罗格夫提醒我们<i>这次不一样</i>纵观历史，“政府债务违约的主要手段是……降低硬币的含量。现代货币印刷机只是实现同样目的的一种技术先进、效率更高的方法。”他们指出，“政府债务……往往是各种金融危机中的统一问题。”</blockquote></p><p> Prices are now rising in inflation bellwethers such as industrial metals, energy, and food commodities. The dollar haslost85% of its purchasing power since 1970. While a majority of this can be attributed to high inflation in the 1970s, even the supposedly deflationary 21st century has witnessed the erosion of one-third of the value of the dollar since 2000.</p><p><blockquote>工业金属、能源和食品等通胀风向标的价格目前正在上涨。自1970年以来，美元已经失去了85%的购买力。虽然这在很大程度上可以归因于20世纪70年代的高通胀，但即使是所谓的通货紧缩的21世纪，自2000年以来，美元价值也下跌了三分之一。</blockquote></p><p> Rising inflation expectations go a long way in explaining the vertiginous ascent of the equity markets in the face of a partially closed economy with muted growth. As lockdowns and travel restrictions ease, pent-up demand will pressure global supply chains and thus prices. We can expect to see a further acceleration of inflation as early as this spring as economies reopen.</p><p><blockquote>在经济部分封闭、增长乏力的情况下，通胀预期上升在很大程度上解释了股市为何会出现令人眩晕的上涨。随着封锁和旅行限制的放松，被压抑的需求将给全球供应链带来压力，从而给价格带来压力。随着经济重新开放，我们预计最早在今年春天就会看到通胀进一步加速。</blockquote></p><p> Where can one thrive, or at least hide, in this environment? U.S. equity markets are vastly overvalued by any historic measure, but bonds and cash are both danger zones in inflation. While conventional wisdom says to stay invested, it may be a good time to take some chips off of the table. Resist “FOMO,” the fear of missing out. If one has to stay invested, avoid the temptation of high-flying tech and growth equities, which are the most overvalued, in favor of diversifying among recently abandoned dividend-paying value stocks and emerging markets. Inflation-sensitive commodity (food, metals, and energy) producers should perform going forward. Gold has a millennia-long history of serving as a store of value and inflationary hedge, but pays no dividends along the way.</p><p><blockquote>在这种环境下，一个人能在哪里茁壮成长，或者至少能躲藏起来？以任何历史标准衡量，美国股市都被严重高估，但债券和现金都是通胀的危险区。虽然传统观点认为要保持投资，但现在可能是拿出一些筹码的好时机。抵制“FOMO”，害怕错过。如果必须继续投资，请避免估值最高估的高科技股和成长型股票的诱惑，转而在最近被放弃的派息价值股和新兴市场进行多元化投资。对通胀敏感的大宗商品（食品、金属和能源）生产商未来应该会表现出色。黄金作为价值储存和通胀对冲有着数千年的历史，但在此过程中没有支付股息。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Bitcoin similarly earns no yield. Cryptocurrencies have no intrinsic value, and, like fiat currencies, are worth whatever the market happens to believe. When the euphoria wears off, they may be hit hard. Besides, Bitcoin is a stacked game easily manipulated given the high concentration ofownershipby whales.</p><p><blockquote>比特币同样没有收益。加密货币没有内在价值，就像法定货币一样，无论市场相信什么，它都有价值。当兴奋消退时，他们可能会受到重创。此外，鉴于鲸鱼的所有权高度集中，比特币是一个很容易被操纵的堆叠游戏。</blockquote></p><p> Watch out for gearing in investments, whether in securities or real estate. If markets collapse, leverage will rapidly eat into the remaining value. Look for hidden exposure to risk (including inflation) in retirement accounts. Invest in hard assets not correlated to the markets. Stay liquid to exploit the inevitable correction.</p><p><blockquote>无论是证券还是房地产，都要注意投资杠杆。如果市场崩溃，杠杆将迅速侵蚀剩余价值。寻找退休账户中隐藏的风险（包括通货膨胀）。投资与市场无关的硬资产。保持流动性以利用不可避免的修正。</blockquote></p><p> We need to increase the pressure on our elected officials to cut the pork and reopen our economies. Americans want to get back to work. So-called stimulus funding is not getting into the hands of those who need it most. Ultimately, it’s the real economy, not financial markets, that drive growth and prosperity. That requires local businesses open, workers re-engaged, and productive capital investments made.</p><p><blockquote>我们需要加大对民选官员的压力，让他们削减猪肉，重新开放我们的经济。美国人想重返工作岗位。所谓的刺激资金没有到达最需要的人手中。最终，推动增长和繁荣的是实体经济，而不是金融市场。这需要当地企业开放，工人重新参与，并进行生产性资本投资。</blockquote></p><p> This is not doom and gloom. Since the problem is not a banking-sector credit crisis, and the underlying economy remains healthy (albeit weakened), postcorrection recovery may come more quickly and easily than following the financial crisis. While persistent inflation can create a host of problems, it usually supports fuller employment, and both producers and consumers will adapt to a changing price environment. In the meantime, it may be best to stay liquid and wait this one out. As spring follows even the darkest winter, the opportune time will come again.</p><p><blockquote>这不是厄运和黑暗。由于问题不是银行业的信贷危机，而且基础经济仍然健康（尽管有所减弱），调整后的复苏可能比金融危机后更快、更容易。虽然持续的通货膨胀会造成一系列问题，但它通常会支持更充分的就业，生产者和消费者都会适应不断变化的价格环境。与此同时，最好保持流动性，等待这一次结束。即使是最黑暗的冬天也会迎来春天，合适的时机也会再次到来。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where Can Investors Hide as a Bubble Inflates?<blockquote>随着泡沫的膨胀，投资者可以躲在哪里？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere Can Investors Hide as a Bubble Inflates?<blockquote>随着泡沫的膨胀，投资者可以躲在哪里？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-08 11:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Let’s settle one thing up front. We’re clearly witnessing a speculative bubble in the financial markets. This time is no different. This mania will end the same way they all do: in tears.</p><p><blockquote>让我们先解决一件事。我们显然正在目睹金融市场的投机泡沫。这次也不例外。这种狂热将以他们都做的方式结束：在眼泪中。</blockquote></p><p> I started banging the gong in mid-2020 about the imminent risk of financial crisis stemming from three potential causes: a severe market correction, a deteriorating U.S. fiscal position from unsustainable growth in deficits and debt, and the inflation that was likely to follow.</p><p><blockquote>我在2020年年中开始敲响金融危机迫在眉睫的风险，这些风险源于三个潜在原因：严重的市场调整、赤字和债务不可持续增长导致的美国财政状况恶化，以及可能随之而来的通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> At that time, this viewpoint was greeted with a heavy dose of skepticism. Inflationary views were considered fringe. Respected economists were quick to point out the lack of demand for money relative to rapidly expanding supply, slack in the lockdown economy, and prevailing expectations for deflation based on recent history. Wall Street has little incentive to call a market bubble. Fees are made and bonuses paid when optimism, activity and volatility are high, not by predictions of impending doom. The euphorias of bubbles are like the best narcotics—stimulative and somewhat hypnotic. But the bigger the high, the worse the comedown.</p><p><blockquote>当时，这一观点遭到了强烈的怀疑。通货膨胀观点被认为是边缘观点。受人尊敬的经济学家很快指出，相对于快速扩张的供应，货币需求不足，封锁经济疲软，以及基于近期历史的通货紧缩预期。华尔街几乎没有动力去看涨期权市场泡沫。当乐观情绪、活动和波动性很高时，就会收取费用和支付奖金，而不是通过对即将到来的厄运的预测。泡沫带来的快感就像最好的麻醉剂——既刺激又有点催眠。但高点越大，衰退就越严重。</blockquote></p><p> These contrarian views of inflation and market correction have now become mainstream. The warning signs of market mania are evident inBitcoin(up 300% in a year), the deluge ofSPAC IPOs(always a signal of a top), exorbitantP/E ratios, and rapidly rising real estateprices. These, along with retail-driven short squeezes and mini-bubbles, are symptoms of underlying conditions set in motion long ago by a flood of liquidity unleashed by the Federal Reserve. This time is different, however, in one important way. When this bubble bursts, the Fed can no longer prop up the market by lowering interest rates. Real rates, which were about 4% before the global financial crisis, are now below zero almost everywhere.</p><p><blockquote>这些对通胀和市场回调的逆向观点现已成为主流。市场狂热的警告信号在比特币（一年内上涨300%）、SPAC IPO的泛滥（始终是见顶的信号）、过高的市盈率以及快速上涨的房地产价格中显而易见。这些，以及散户驱动的空头挤压和迷你泡沫，都是美联储很久以前释放的大量流动性引发的潜在状况的症状。然而，这一次在一个重要方面有所不同。当这个泡沫破裂时，美联储就无法再通过降低利率来支撑市场。全球金融危机前的实际利率约为4%，现在几乎所有地方都低于零。</blockquote></p><p> The Biden administration is expected to unleash a blue wave of stimulus and other spending. This comes at a time when the revenue base is eroding, and the U.S. is no longer in a sound fiscal position. It is only a matter of time until government struggles to efficiently borrow against a gaping deficit and compounding debt. In 2020 alone, the U.S. government spent $3 trillion on pandemic relief while suffering a $2.1 trilliondecline in national incomefrom crippling lockdowns in our most economically important states, many of which continue today. By the end of fiscal 2020, total U.S. governmentdebtwas $27 trillion, up 20% from 2019 and triple the amount prior to the financial crisis. The Fed has absorbed a lot of this increase. Bond investors are rightly nervous.</p><p><blockquote>预计拜登政府将推出蓝色刺激和其他支出浪潮。这发生在收入基础正在侵蚀、美国财政状况不再良好的时候。政府难以有效地举债应对不断扩大的赤字和不断增加的债务只是时间问题。仅在2020年，美国政府就在疫情救助上花费了3万亿美元，同时由于我们最重要的经济州的严重封锁，国民收入下降了2.1万亿美元，其中许多州至今仍在继续。截至2020财年末，美国政府债务总额为27万亿美元，比2019年增长20%，是金融危机前的三倍。美联储已经吸收了很多这种增长。债券投资者的紧张是理所当然的。</blockquote></p><p> It is no surprise that the Fed has since adopted apro-inflation stance. An unspoken objective is to erode the topsoil from the mountain of U.S. debt at the expense of Americans. Inflation is a hidden tax that will eat away our purchasing power. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff remind us in<i>This Time is Different</i>that throughout history, “the main device for defaulting on government obligations was… debasing the content of coinage. Modern currency presses are just a technologically advanced and more efficient approach to achieving the same end.” They note, “government debt is… often the unifying problem across the wide range of financial crises.”</p><p><blockquote>毫不奇怪，美联储此后采取了支持通胀的立场。一个不言而喻的目标是以美国人为代价侵蚀美国债务堆积如山的表土。通货膨胀是一种隐性税收，会侵蚀我们的购买力。卡门·莱因哈特和肯尼斯·罗格夫提醒我们<i>这次不一样</i>纵观历史，“政府债务违约的主要手段是……降低硬币的含量。现代货币印刷机只是实现同样目的的一种技术先进、效率更高的方法。”他们指出，“政府债务……往往是各种金融危机中的统一问题。”</blockquote></p><p> Prices are now rising in inflation bellwethers such as industrial metals, energy, and food commodities. The dollar haslost85% of its purchasing power since 1970. While a majority of this can be attributed to high inflation in the 1970s, even the supposedly deflationary 21st century has witnessed the erosion of one-third of the value of the dollar since 2000.</p><p><blockquote>工业金属、能源和食品等通胀风向标的价格目前正在上涨。自1970年以来，美元已经失去了85%的购买力。虽然这在很大程度上可以归因于20世纪70年代的高通胀，但即使是所谓的通货紧缩的21世纪，自2000年以来，美元价值也下跌了三分之一。</blockquote></p><p> Rising inflation expectations go a long way in explaining the vertiginous ascent of the equity markets in the face of a partially closed economy with muted growth. As lockdowns and travel restrictions ease, pent-up demand will pressure global supply chains and thus prices. We can expect to see a further acceleration of inflation as early as this spring as economies reopen.</p><p><blockquote>在经济部分封闭、增长乏力的情况下，通胀预期上升在很大程度上解释了股市为何会出现令人眩晕的上涨。随着封锁和旅行限制的放松，被压抑的需求将给全球供应链带来压力，从而给价格带来压力。随着经济重新开放，我们预计最早在今年春天就会看到通胀进一步加速。</blockquote></p><p> Where can one thrive, or at least hide, in this environment? U.S. equity markets are vastly overvalued by any historic measure, but bonds and cash are both danger zones in inflation. While conventional wisdom says to stay invested, it may be a good time to take some chips off of the table. Resist “FOMO,” the fear of missing out. If one has to stay invested, avoid the temptation of high-flying tech and growth equities, which are the most overvalued, in favor of diversifying among recently abandoned dividend-paying value stocks and emerging markets. Inflation-sensitive commodity (food, metals, and energy) producers should perform going forward. Gold has a millennia-long history of serving as a store of value and inflationary hedge, but pays no dividends along the way.</p><p><blockquote>在这种环境下，一个人能在哪里茁壮成长，或者至少能躲藏起来？以任何历史标准衡量，美国股市都被严重高估，但债券和现金都是通胀的危险区。虽然传统观点认为要保持投资，但现在可能是拿出一些筹码的好时机。抵制“FOMO”，害怕错过。如果必须继续投资，请避免估值最高估的高科技股和成长型股票的诱惑，转而在最近被放弃的派息价值股和新兴市场进行多元化投资。对通胀敏感的大宗商品（食品、金属和能源）生产商未来应该会表现出色。黄金作为价值储存和通胀对冲有着数千年的历史，但在此过程中没有支付股息。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Bitcoin similarly earns no yield. Cryptocurrencies have no intrinsic value, and, like fiat currencies, are worth whatever the market happens to believe. When the euphoria wears off, they may be hit hard. Besides, Bitcoin is a stacked game easily manipulated given the high concentration ofownershipby whales.</p><p><blockquote>比特币同样没有收益。加密货币没有内在价值，就像法定货币一样，无论市场相信什么，它都有价值。当兴奋消退时，他们可能会受到重创。此外，鉴于鲸鱼的所有权高度集中，比特币是一个很容易被操纵的堆叠游戏。</blockquote></p><p> Watch out for gearing in investments, whether in securities or real estate. If markets collapse, leverage will rapidly eat into the remaining value. Look for hidden exposure to risk (including inflation) in retirement accounts. Invest in hard assets not correlated to the markets. Stay liquid to exploit the inevitable correction.</p><p><blockquote>无论是证券还是房地产，都要注意投资杠杆。如果市场崩溃，杠杆将迅速侵蚀剩余价值。寻找退休账户中隐藏的风险（包括通货膨胀）。投资与市场无关的硬资产。保持流动性以利用不可避免的修正。</blockquote></p><p> We need to increase the pressure on our elected officials to cut the pork and reopen our economies. Americans want to get back to work. So-called stimulus funding is not getting into the hands of those who need it most. Ultimately, it’s the real economy, not financial markets, that drive growth and prosperity. That requires local businesses open, workers re-engaged, and productive capital investments made.</p><p><blockquote>我们需要加大对民选官员的压力，让他们削减猪肉，重新开放我们的经济。美国人想重返工作岗位。所谓的刺激资金没有到达最需要的人手中。最终，推动增长和繁荣的是实体经济，而不是金融市场。这需要当地企业开放，工人重新参与，并进行生产性资本投资。</blockquote></p><p> This is not doom and gloom. Since the problem is not a banking-sector credit crisis, and the underlying economy remains healthy (albeit weakened), postcorrection recovery may come more quickly and easily than following the financial crisis. While persistent inflation can create a host of problems, it usually supports fuller employment, and both producers and consumers will adapt to a changing price environment. In the meantime, it may be best to stay liquid and wait this one out. As spring follows even the darkest winter, the opportune time will come again.</p><p><blockquote>这不是厄运和黑暗。由于问题不是银行业的信贷危机，而且基础经济仍然健康（尽管有所减弱），调整后的复苏可能比金融危机后更快、更容易。虽然持续的通货膨胀会造成一系列问题，但它通常会支持更充分的就业，生产者和消费者都会适应不断变化的价格环境。与此同时，最好保持流动性，等待这一次结束。即使是最黑暗的冬天也会迎来春天，合适的时机也会再次到来。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/a-bubble-is-inflating-where-can-investors-hide-51612540675?mod=hp_COMMENTARY_2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/a-bubble-is-inflating-where-can-investors-hide-51612540675?mod=hp_COMMENTARY_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180268693","content_text":"Let’s settle one thing up front. We’re clearly witnessing a speculative bubble in the financial markets. This time is no different. This mania will end the same way they all do: in tears.\nI started banging the gong in mid-2020 about the imminent risk of financial crisis stemming from three potential causes: a severe market correction, a deteriorating U.S. fiscal position from unsustainable growth in deficits and debt, and the inflation that was likely to follow.\nAt that time, this viewpoint was greeted with a heavy dose of skepticism. Inflationary views were considered fringe. Respected economists were quick to point out the lack of demand for money relative to rapidly expanding supply, slack in the lockdown economy, and prevailing expectations for deflation based on recent history. Wall Street has little incentive to call a market bubble. Fees are made and bonuses paid when optimism, activity and volatility are high, not by predictions of impending doom. The euphorias of bubbles are like the best narcotics—stimulative and somewhat hypnotic. But the bigger the high, the worse the comedown.\nThese contrarian views of inflation and market correction have now become mainstream. The warning signs of market mania are evident inBitcoin(up 300% in a year), the deluge ofSPAC IPOs(always a signal of a top), exorbitantP/E ratios, and rapidly rising real estateprices. These, along with retail-driven short squeezes and mini-bubbles, are symptoms of underlying conditions set in motion long ago by a flood of liquidity unleashed by the Federal Reserve. This time is different, however, in one important way. When this bubble bursts, the Fed can no longer prop up the market by lowering interest rates. Real rates, which were about 4% before the global financial crisis, are now below zero almost everywhere.\nThe Biden administration is expected to unleash a blue wave of stimulus and other spending. This comes at a time when the revenue base is eroding, and the U.S. is no longer in a sound fiscal position. It is only a matter of time until government struggles to efficiently borrow against a gaping deficit and compounding debt. In 2020 alone, the U.S. government spent $3 trillion on pandemic relief while suffering a $2.1 trilliondecline in national incomefrom crippling lockdowns in our most economically important states, many of which continue today. By the end of fiscal 2020, total U.S. governmentdebtwas $27 trillion, up 20% from 2019 and triple the amount prior to the financial crisis. The Fed has absorbed a lot of this increase. Bond investors are rightly nervous.\nIt is no surprise that the Fed has since adopted apro-inflation stance. An unspoken objective is to erode the topsoil from the mountain of U.S. debt at the expense of Americans. Inflation is a hidden tax that will eat away our purchasing power. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff remind us inThis Time is Differentthat throughout history, “the main device for defaulting on government obligations was… debasing the content of coinage. Modern currency presses are just a technologically advanced and more efficient approach to achieving the same end.” They note, “government debt is… often the unifying problem across the wide range of financial crises.”\nPrices are now rising in inflation bellwethers such as industrial metals, energy, and food commodities. The dollar haslost85% of its purchasing power since 1970. While a majority of this can be attributed to high inflation in the 1970s, even the supposedly deflationary 21st century has witnessed the erosion of one-third of the value of the dollar since 2000.\nRising inflation expectations go a long way in explaining the vertiginous ascent of the equity markets in the face of a partially closed economy with muted growth. As lockdowns and travel restrictions ease, pent-up demand will pressure global supply chains and thus prices. We can expect to see a further acceleration of inflation as early as this spring as economies reopen.\nWhere can one thrive, or at least hide, in this environment? U.S. equity markets are vastly overvalued by any historic measure, but bonds and cash are both danger zones in inflation. While conventional wisdom says to stay invested, it may be a good time to take some chips off of the table. Resist “FOMO,” the fear of missing out. If one has to stay invested, avoid the temptation of high-flying tech and growth equities, which are the most overvalued, in favor of diversifying among recently abandoned dividend-paying value stocks and emerging markets. Inflation-sensitive commodity (food, metals, and energy) producers should perform going forward. Gold has a millennia-long history of serving as a store of value and inflationary hedge, but pays no dividends along the way.\nBitcoin similarly earns no yield. Cryptocurrencies have no intrinsic value, and, like fiat currencies, are worth whatever the market happens to believe. When the euphoria wears off, they may be hit hard. Besides, Bitcoin is a stacked game easily manipulated given the high concentration ofownershipby whales.\nWatch out for gearing in investments, whether in securities or real estate. If markets collapse, leverage will rapidly eat into the remaining value. Look for hidden exposure to risk (including inflation) in retirement accounts. Invest in hard assets not correlated to the markets. Stay liquid to exploit the inevitable correction.\nWe need to increase the pressure on our elected officials to cut the pork and reopen our economies. Americans want to get back to work. So-called stimulus funding is not getting into the hands of those who need it most. Ultimately, it’s the real economy, not financial markets, that drive growth and prosperity. That requires local businesses open, workers re-engaged, and productive capital investments made.\nThis is not doom and gloom. Since the problem is not a banking-sector credit crisis, and the underlying economy remains healthy (albeit weakened), postcorrection recovery may come more quickly and easily than following the financial crisis. While persistent inflation can create a host of problems, it usually supports fuller employment, and both producers and consumers will adapt to a changing price environment. In the meantime, it may be best to stay liquid and wait this one out. As spring follows even the darkest winter, the opportune time will come again.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":417,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":389049066,"gmtCreate":1612638561355,"gmtModify":1703764084120,"author":{"id":"3557291191459072","authorId":"3557291191459072","name":"Slmlmlmlmlml","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f06a8d77f57be0f0ccb485e2f711bdd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557291191459072","idStr":"3557291191459072"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Go Tencent&nbsp;","listText":"Go Tencent&nbsp;","text":"Go Tencent","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389049066","repostId":"1194218406","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":283,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":389040716,"gmtCreate":1612638514035,"gmtModify":1703764084639,"author":{"id":"3557291191459072","authorId":"3557291191459072","name":"Slmlmlmlmlml","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f06a8d77f57be0f0ccb485e2f711bdd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557291191459072","idStr":"3557291191459072"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow&nbsp;","listText":"Wow&nbsp;","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389040716","repostId":"1142907763","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142907763","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612514969,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142907763?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-05 16:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Luckin Coffee’s Restructuring Efforts Move Forward with Commencement of its Chapter 15 Case in the United States<blockquote>随着美国破产法第15章案件的启动，瑞星咖啡的重组工作向前推进</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142907763","media":"globenewswire","summary":"Coordination between the Cayman Court and the U.S. Bankruptcy Court to Protect the Interests of Stak","content":"<p><i>Coordination between the Cayman Court and the U.S. Bankruptcy Court to Protect the Interests of Stakeholders and Facilitate LuckinCoffee’s Restructuring of its Financial Obligations</i></p><p><blockquote><i>开曼法院与美国破产法院之间的协调，以保护利益相关者的利益并促进瑞幸咖啡重组其财务义务</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>All Company Stores Remain Open and Serving Customers in China; No Material Impact on Daily Operations Expected</i></p><p><blockquote><i>公司所有门店保持营业并为中国客户提供服务；预计不会对日常运营产生重大影响</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Company Continues to Meet Trade Obligations in the Ordinary Course of Business, Including Paying Suppliers, Vendors and Employees</i></p><p><blockquote><i>公司在日常业务过程中继续履行贸易义务，包括向供应商、销售商和员工付款</i></blockquote></p><p> BEIJING, Feb. 05, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The Joint Provisional Liquidators (the “JPLs”) of Luckin Coffee Inc. (the “Company”) (OTC:LKNCY), Alexander Lawson of Alvarez &amp; Marsal Cayman Islands Limited and Wing Sze Tiffany Wong of Alvarez &amp; Marsal Asia Limited, today filed a verified petition under chapter 15 of title 11 of the United States Code (the “Chapter 15 Petition”) with the United States Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York (the “U.S. Bankruptcy Court”). The Chapter 15 Petition seeks, among other things, recognition in the United States of the Company’s provisional liquidation pending before the Grand Court of the Cayman Islands (the “Cayman Court”), Financial Services Division, Cause No. 157 of 2020 (ASCJ) (the “Cayman Proceeding”)1and related relief.</p><p><blockquote>北京，2021年2月5日(环球通讯社)--瑞星咖啡公司（“公司”）（场外交易代码：LKNCY）的联合临时清算人（“JPLs”）、Alvarez&amp;Marsal Cayman Islands Limited的Alexander Lawson和Alvarez&amp;Marsal Asia Limited的Wing Sze Tiffany Wong今天根据美国法典第11篇第15章向美国纽约南区破产法院（“美国破产法院”）提交了一份经过验证的请愿书（“第15章请愿书”）。第15章呈请寻求（其中包括）美国承认本公司在开曼群岛大法院（“开曼法院”）金融服务部2020年第157号案件（ASCJ）（“开曼程序”）1待决的临时清算及相关救济。</blockquote></p><p> The Company is negotiating with its stakeholders regarding the restructuring of the Company’s financial obligations, to strengthen the Company’s balance sheet and enable it to emerge from the Cayman Proceeding as a going concern, for the benefit of all stakeholders. The relief sought in the Chapter 15 Petition is an important component of the Company’s restructuring. This relief will promote centralized administration of the Company’s assets by permitting coordination between the Cayman Court and the U.S. Bankruptcy Court, to protect the interests of stakeholders while facilitating the Company’s restructuring.</p><p><blockquote>为了所有利益相关者的利益，公司正在与其利益相关者就公司财务义务的重组进行谈判，以加强公司的资产负债表，并使其能够作为持续经营企业摆脱开曼诉讼。第15章申请中寻求的救济是公司重组的重要组成部分。这项救济将通过允许开曼法院和美国破产法院之间的协调来促进公司资产的集中管理，以保护利益相关者的利益，同时促进公司的重组。</blockquote></p><p> All Company stores remain open for business, offering products with high quality, affordability and convenience to its customers in China. The filing of the Chapter 15 Petition is not expected to materially impact the Company’s day-to-day operations. The Company continues to meet its trade obligations in the ordinary course of business, including paying suppliers, vendors and employees.</p><p><blockquote>公司的所有商店仍然营业，为中国的客户提供高质量、实惠和便利的产品。根据美国破产法第15章提交请愿书预计不会对公司的日常运营产生重大影响。公司在日常业务过程中继续履行其贸易义务，包括向供应商、销售商和员工付款。</blockquote></p><p> ______</p><p><blockquote>______</blockquote></p><p> 1The Company previously disclosed the commencement of the Cayman Proceeding on July 15, 2020.</p><p><blockquote>1本公司早前披露开曼诉讼于2020年7月15日展开。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Safe Harbor Statement</b></p><p><blockquote><b>安全港声明</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> This announcement contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. These forward-looking statements are made under the “safe harbor” provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements can be identified by terminology such as “will,” “expects,” “anticipates,” “future,” “intends,” “plans,” “believes,” “estimates,” “potential,” “continue,” “ongoing,” “targets,” “guidance” and similar statements. The Company may also make written or oral forward-looking statements in its periodic reports to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”), in its annual report to shareholders, in press releases and other written materials and in oral statements made by its officers, directors or employees to third parties, including Joint Provisional Liquidators. Any statements that are not historical facts, including statements about the Company’s beliefs and expectations, are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement, including but not limited to the following: the expense, timing and outcome of existing or future legal and governmental proceedings, investigations in connection with the Company; the outcome and effect of the ongoing restructuring of the Company’s financial obligations; the Company’s growth strategies; its future business development, results of operations and financial condition; the effect of the non-reliance identified in, and the resultant restatement of, certain of the Company’s previously issued financial results; the timing of the completion or outcome of the audit of the Company’s financial statements; the effectiveness of its internal control; its ability to retain and attract its customers; its ability to maintain and enhance the recognition and reputation of its brand; its ability to maintain and improve quality control policies and measures; its ability to establish and maintain relationships with its suppliers and business partners; trends and competition in China’s coffee industry or China’s food and beverage sector in general; changes in its revenues and certain cost or expense items; the expected growth of China’s coffee industry or China’s food and beverage sector in general; PRC governmental policies and regulations relating to the Company’s industry; the potential effects of COVID-19; and general economic and business conditions globally and in China and assumptions underlying or related to any of the foregoing. Further information regarding these and other risks, uncertainties or factors is included in the Company’s filings with the SEC. All information provided in this press release and in the attachments is as of the date of this press release, and the Company undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement, except as required under applicable law.</p><p><blockquote>本公告包含经修订的1934年证券交易法第21E节含义内的前瞻性陈述。这些前瞻性陈述是根据1995年美国私人证券诉讼改革法案的“安全港”条款做出的。这些陈述可以通过术语来识别，例如“将”、“期望”、“预期”、“未来”、“打算”、“计划”、“相信”、“估计”、“潜力”、“继续”、“正在进行”、“目标”、“指导”和类似的陈述。公司还可能在向美国证券交易委员会（“SEC”）提交的定期报告、向股东提交的年度报告、新闻稿和其他书面材料以及口头声明中做出书面或口头前瞻性陈述。其管理人员、董事或员工向第三方（包括联合临时清算人）。任何非历史事实的陈述，包括有关公司信念和期望的陈述，都是前瞻性陈述。前瞻性陈述涉及固有的风险和不确定性。许多因素可能导致实际结果与任何前瞻性陈述中包含的结果存在重大差异，包括但不限于以下内容：与公司相关的现有或未来法律和政府诉讼、调查的费用、时间和结果；公司财务义务正在进行的重组的结果和影响；公司的增长战略；其未来业务发展、经营业绩及财务状况；公司之前发布的某些财务业绩中识别的非依赖以及由此导致的重述的影响；公司财务报表审计的完成时间或结果；内部控制的有效性；其留住和吸引客户的能力；其维持及提升其品牌知名度及声誉的能力；其维持和改进质量控制政策和措施的能力；其与供应商和业务合作伙伴建立和维护关系的能力；中国咖啡行业或中国食品及饮料行业的趋势及竞争；其收入和某些成本或费用项目的变化；中国咖啡行业或中国食品及饮料行业整体的预期增长；与本公司所处行业有关的中国政府政策及法规；新冠肺炎的潜在影响以及全球和中国的总体经济和商业状况以及与上述任何内容相关或相关的假设。有关这些和其他风险、不确定性或因素的更多信息包含在公司向SEC提交的文件中。本新闻稿和附件中提供的所有信息均截至本新闻稿发布之日，公司不承担更新任何前瞻性声明的义务，除非适用法律要求。</blockquote></p><p> <b>About Luckin Coffee Inc.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关于瑞星咖啡公司。</b></blockquote></p><p> Luckin Coffee Inc.&nbsp;(OTC:LKNCY) has pioneered a technology-driven retail network to provide coffee and other products of high quality, high affordability, and high convenience to customers. Empowered by big data analytics, AI, and proprietary technologies, the Company pursues its mission to be part of everyone’s everyday life, starting with coffee. The Company was founded in 2017 and is based in&nbsp;China. </p><p><blockquote>瑞星咖啡公司（场外交易代码：LKNCY）开创了一个技术驱动的零售网络，为顾客提供高品质、高性价比和高便利性的咖啡和其他产品。在大数据分析、人工智能和专有技术的支持下，该公司追求成为每个人日常生活一部分的使命，从咖啡开始。该公司成立于2017年，总部位于中国。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1573717531661","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Luckin Coffee’s Restructuring Efforts Move Forward with Commencement of its Chapter 15 Case in the United States<blockquote>随着美国破产法第15章案件的启动，瑞星咖啡的重组工作向前推进</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLuckin Coffee’s Restructuring Efforts Move Forward with Commencement of its Chapter 15 Case in the United States<blockquote>随着美国破产法第15章案件的启动，瑞星咖啡的重组工作向前推进</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">globenewswire</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-05 16:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i>Coordination between the Cayman Court and the U.S. Bankruptcy Court to Protect the Interests of Stakeholders and Facilitate LuckinCoffee’s Restructuring of its Financial Obligations</i></p><p><blockquote><i>开曼法院与美国破产法院之间的协调，以保护利益相关者的利益并促进瑞幸咖啡重组其财务义务</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>All Company Stores Remain Open and Serving Customers in China; No Material Impact on Daily Operations Expected</i></p><p><blockquote><i>公司所有门店保持营业并为中国客户提供服务；预计不会对日常运营产生重大影响</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Company Continues to Meet Trade Obligations in the Ordinary Course of Business, Including Paying Suppliers, Vendors and Employees</i></p><p><blockquote><i>公司在日常业务过程中继续履行贸易义务，包括向供应商、销售商和员工付款</i></blockquote></p><p> BEIJING, Feb. 05, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The Joint Provisional Liquidators (the “JPLs”) of Luckin Coffee Inc. (the “Company”) (OTC:LKNCY), Alexander Lawson of Alvarez &amp; Marsal Cayman Islands Limited and Wing Sze Tiffany Wong of Alvarez &amp; Marsal Asia Limited, today filed a verified petition under chapter 15 of title 11 of the United States Code (the “Chapter 15 Petition”) with the United States Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York (the “U.S. Bankruptcy Court”). The Chapter 15 Petition seeks, among other things, recognition in the United States of the Company’s provisional liquidation pending before the Grand Court of the Cayman Islands (the “Cayman Court”), Financial Services Division, Cause No. 157 of 2020 (ASCJ) (the “Cayman Proceeding”)1and related relief.</p><p><blockquote>北京，2021年2月5日(环球通讯社)--瑞星咖啡公司（“公司”）（场外交易代码：LKNCY）的联合临时清算人（“JPLs”）、Alvarez&amp;Marsal Cayman Islands Limited的Alexander Lawson和Alvarez&amp;Marsal Asia Limited的Wing Sze Tiffany Wong今天根据美国法典第11篇第15章向美国纽约南区破产法院（“美国破产法院”）提交了一份经过验证的请愿书（“第15章请愿书”）。第15章呈请寻求（其中包括）美国承认本公司在开曼群岛大法院（“开曼法院”）金融服务部2020年第157号案件（ASCJ）（“开曼程序”）1待决的临时清算及相关救济。</blockquote></p><p> The Company is negotiating with its stakeholders regarding the restructuring of the Company’s financial obligations, to strengthen the Company’s balance sheet and enable it to emerge from the Cayman Proceeding as a going concern, for the benefit of all stakeholders. The relief sought in the Chapter 15 Petition is an important component of the Company’s restructuring. This relief will promote centralized administration of the Company’s assets by permitting coordination between the Cayman Court and the U.S. Bankruptcy Court, to protect the interests of stakeholders while facilitating the Company’s restructuring.</p><p><blockquote>为了所有利益相关者的利益，公司正在与其利益相关者就公司财务义务的重组进行谈判，以加强公司的资产负债表，并使其能够作为持续经营企业摆脱开曼诉讼。第15章申请中寻求的救济是公司重组的重要组成部分。这项救济将通过允许开曼法院和美国破产法院之间的协调来促进公司资产的集中管理，以保护利益相关者的利益，同时促进公司的重组。</blockquote></p><p> All Company stores remain open for business, offering products with high quality, affordability and convenience to its customers in China. The filing of the Chapter 15 Petition is not expected to materially impact the Company’s day-to-day operations. The Company continues to meet its trade obligations in the ordinary course of business, including paying suppliers, vendors and employees.</p><p><blockquote>公司的所有商店仍然营业，为中国的客户提供高质量、实惠和便利的产品。根据美国破产法第15章提交请愿书预计不会对公司的日常运营产生重大影响。公司在日常业务过程中继续履行其贸易义务，包括向供应商、销售商和员工付款。</blockquote></p><p> ______</p><p><blockquote>______</blockquote></p><p> 1The Company previously disclosed the commencement of the Cayman Proceeding on July 15, 2020.</p><p><blockquote>1本公司早前披露开曼诉讼于2020年7月15日展开。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Safe Harbor Statement</b></p><p><blockquote><b>安全港声明</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> This announcement contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. These forward-looking statements are made under the “safe harbor” provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements can be identified by terminology such as “will,” “expects,” “anticipates,” “future,” “intends,” “plans,” “believes,” “estimates,” “potential,” “continue,” “ongoing,” “targets,” “guidance” and similar statements. The Company may also make written or oral forward-looking statements in its periodic reports to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”), in its annual report to shareholders, in press releases and other written materials and in oral statements made by its officers, directors or employees to third parties, including Joint Provisional Liquidators. Any statements that are not historical facts, including statements about the Company’s beliefs and expectations, are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement, including but not limited to the following: the expense, timing and outcome of existing or future legal and governmental proceedings, investigations in connection with the Company; the outcome and effect of the ongoing restructuring of the Company’s financial obligations; the Company’s growth strategies; its future business development, results of operations and financial condition; the effect of the non-reliance identified in, and the resultant restatement of, certain of the Company’s previously issued financial results; the timing of the completion or outcome of the audit of the Company’s financial statements; the effectiveness of its internal control; its ability to retain and attract its customers; its ability to maintain and enhance the recognition and reputation of its brand; its ability to maintain and improve quality control policies and measures; its ability to establish and maintain relationships with its suppliers and business partners; trends and competition in China’s coffee industry or China’s food and beverage sector in general; changes in its revenues and certain cost or expense items; the expected growth of China’s coffee industry or China’s food and beverage sector in general; PRC governmental policies and regulations relating to the Company’s industry; the potential effects of COVID-19; and general economic and business conditions globally and in China and assumptions underlying or related to any of the foregoing. Further information regarding these and other risks, uncertainties or factors is included in the Company’s filings with the SEC. All information provided in this press release and in the attachments is as of the date of this press release, and the Company undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement, except as required under applicable law.</p><p><blockquote>本公告包含经修订的1934年证券交易法第21E节含义内的前瞻性陈述。这些前瞻性陈述是根据1995年美国私人证券诉讼改革法案的“安全港”条款做出的。这些陈述可以通过术语来识别，例如“将”、“期望”、“预期”、“未来”、“打算”、“计划”、“相信”、“估计”、“潜力”、“继续”、“正在进行”、“目标”、“指导”和类似的陈述。公司还可能在向美国证券交易委员会（“SEC”）提交的定期报告、向股东提交的年度报告、新闻稿和其他书面材料以及口头声明中做出书面或口头前瞻性陈述。其管理人员、董事或员工向第三方（包括联合临时清算人）。任何非历史事实的陈述，包括有关公司信念和期望的陈述，都是前瞻性陈述。前瞻性陈述涉及固有的风险和不确定性。许多因素可能导致实际结果与任何前瞻性陈述中包含的结果存在重大差异，包括但不限于以下内容：与公司相关的现有或未来法律和政府诉讼、调查的费用、时间和结果；公司财务义务正在进行的重组的结果和影响；公司的增长战略；其未来业务发展、经营业绩及财务状况；公司之前发布的某些财务业绩中识别的非依赖以及由此导致的重述的影响；公司财务报表审计的完成时间或结果；内部控制的有效性；其留住和吸引客户的能力；其维持及提升其品牌知名度及声誉的能力；其维持和改进质量控制政策和措施的能力；其与供应商和业务合作伙伴建立和维护关系的能力；中国咖啡行业或中国食品及饮料行业的趋势及竞争；其收入和某些成本或费用项目的变化；中国咖啡行业或中国食品及饮料行业整体的预期增长；与本公司所处行业有关的中国政府政策及法规；新冠肺炎的潜在影响以及全球和中国的总体经济和商业状况以及与上述任何内容相关或相关的假设。有关这些和其他风险、不确定性或因素的更多信息包含在公司向SEC提交的文件中。本新闻稿和附件中提供的所有信息均截至本新闻稿发布之日，公司不承担更新任何前瞻性声明的义务，除非适用法律要求。</blockquote></p><p> <b>About Luckin Coffee Inc.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关于瑞星咖啡公司。</b></blockquote></p><p> Luckin Coffee Inc.&nbsp;(OTC:LKNCY) has pioneered a technology-driven retail network to provide coffee and other products of high quality, high affordability, and high convenience to customers. Empowered by big data analytics, AI, and proprietary technologies, the Company pursues its mission to be part of everyone’s everyday life, starting with coffee. The Company was founded in 2017 and is based in&nbsp;China. </p><p><blockquote>瑞星咖啡公司（场外交易代码：LKNCY）开创了一个技术驱动的零售网络，为顾客提供高品质、高性价比和高便利性的咖啡和其他产品。在大数据分析、人工智能和专有技术的支持下，该公司追求成为每个人日常生活一部分的使命，从咖啡开始。该公司成立于2017年，总部位于中国。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"http://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/02/05/2170477/0/en/Luckin-Coffee-s-Restructuring-Efforts-Move-Forward-with-Commencement-of-its-Chapter-15-Case-in-the-United-States.html\">globenewswire</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d12f820102df1859c1d25e4011ee104","relate_stocks":{"LKNCY":"瑞幸咖啡"},"source_url":"http://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/02/05/2170477/0/en/Luckin-Coffee-s-Restructuring-Efforts-Move-Forward-with-Commencement-of-its-Chapter-15-Case-in-the-United-States.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142907763","content_text":"Coordination between the Cayman Court and the U.S. Bankruptcy Court to Protect the Interests of Stakeholders and Facilitate LuckinCoffee’s Restructuring of its Financial Obligations\nAll Company Stores Remain Open and Serving Customers in China; No Material Impact on Daily Operations Expected\nCompany Continues to Meet Trade Obligations in the Ordinary Course of Business, Including Paying Suppliers, Vendors and Employees\nBEIJING, Feb. 05, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The Joint Provisional Liquidators (the “JPLs”) of Luckin Coffee Inc. (the “Company”) (OTC:LKNCY), Alexander Lawson of Alvarez & Marsal Cayman Islands Limited and Wing Sze Tiffany Wong of Alvarez & Marsal Asia Limited, today filed a verified petition under chapter 15 of title 11 of the United States Code (the “Chapter 15 Petition”) with the United States Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York (the “U.S. Bankruptcy Court”). The Chapter 15 Petition seeks, among other things, recognition in the United States of the Company’s provisional liquidation pending before the Grand Court of the Cayman Islands (the “Cayman Court”), Financial Services Division, Cause No. 157 of 2020 (ASCJ) (the “Cayman Proceeding”)1and related relief.\nThe Company is negotiating with its stakeholders regarding the restructuring of the Company’s financial obligations, to strengthen the Company’s balance sheet and enable it to emerge from the Cayman Proceeding as a going concern, for the benefit of all stakeholders. The relief sought in the Chapter 15 Petition is an important component of the Company’s restructuring. This relief will promote centralized administration of the Company’s assets by permitting coordination between the Cayman Court and the U.S. Bankruptcy Court, to protect the interests of stakeholders while facilitating the Company’s restructuring.\nAll Company stores remain open for business, offering products with high quality, affordability and convenience to its customers in China. The filing of the Chapter 15 Petition is not expected to materially impact the Company’s day-to-day operations. The Company continues to meet its trade obligations in the ordinary course of business, including paying suppliers, vendors and employees.\n______\n1The Company previously disclosed the commencement of the Cayman Proceeding on July 15, 2020.\nSafe Harbor Statement\nThis announcement contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. These forward-looking statements are made under the “safe harbor” provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements can be identified by terminology such as “will,” “expects,” “anticipates,” “future,” “intends,” “plans,” “believes,” “estimates,” “potential,” “continue,” “ongoing,” “targets,” “guidance” and similar statements. The Company may also make written or oral forward-looking statements in its periodic reports to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”), in its annual report to shareholders, in press releases and other written materials and in oral statements made by its officers, directors or employees to third parties, including Joint Provisional Liquidators. Any statements that are not historical facts, including statements about the Company’s beliefs and expectations, are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement, including but not limited to the following: the expense, timing and outcome of existing or future legal and governmental proceedings, investigations in connection with the Company; the outcome and effect of the ongoing restructuring of the Company’s financial obligations; the Company’s growth strategies; its future business development, results of operations and financial condition; the effect of the non-reliance identified in, and the resultant restatement of, certain of the Company’s previously issued financial results; the timing of the completion or outcome of the audit of the Company’s financial statements; the effectiveness of its internal control; its ability to retain and attract its customers; its ability to maintain and enhance the recognition and reputation of its brand; its ability to maintain and improve quality control policies and measures; its ability to establish and maintain relationships with its suppliers and business partners; trends and competition in China’s coffee industry or China’s food and beverage sector in general; changes in its revenues and certain cost or expense items; the expected growth of China’s coffee industry or China’s food and beverage sector in general; PRC governmental policies and regulations relating to the Company’s industry; the potential effects of COVID-19; and general economic and business conditions globally and in China and assumptions underlying or related to any of the foregoing. Further information regarding these and other risks, uncertainties or factors is included in the Company’s filings with the SEC. All information provided in this press release and in the attachments is as of the date of this press release, and the Company undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement, except as required under applicable law.\nAbout Luckin Coffee Inc.\nLuckin Coffee Inc. (OTC:LKNCY) has pioneered a technology-driven retail network to provide coffee and other products of high quality, high affordability, and high convenience to customers. Empowered by big data analytics, AI, and proprietary technologies, the Company pursues its mission to be part of everyone’s everyday life, starting with coffee. The Company was founded in 2017 and is based in China.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LKNCY":0.9,"LK":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":355,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":368474863,"gmtCreate":1614351123752,"gmtModify":1703476782883,"author":{"id":"3557291191459072","authorId":"3557291191459072","name":"Slmlmlmlmlml","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f06a8d77f57be0f0ccb485e2f711bdd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557291191459072","authorIdStr":"3557291191459072"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Eth&nbsp;","listText":"Eth&nbsp;","text":"Eth","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368474863","repostId":"1117820997","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1533,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":385713377,"gmtCreate":1613575553999,"gmtModify":1634553080153,"author":{"id":"3557291191459072","authorId":"3557291191459072","name":"Slmlmlmlmlml","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f06a8d77f57be0f0ccb485e2f711bdd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557291191459072","authorIdStr":"3557291191459072"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385713377","repostId":"2112831524","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2854,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":381805630,"gmtCreate":1612950399620,"gmtModify":1703767321364,"author":{"id":"3557291191459072","authorId":"3557291191459072","name":"Slmlmlmlmlml","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f06a8d77f57be0f0ccb485e2f711bdd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557291191459072","authorIdStr":"3557291191459072"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/381805630","repostId":"2110090454","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":266,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":383865371,"gmtCreate":1612865163093,"gmtModify":1703765982421,"author":{"id":"3557291191459072","authorId":"3557291191459072","name":"Slmlmlmlmlml","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f06a8d77f57be0f0ccb485e2f711bdd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557291191459072","authorIdStr":"3557291191459072"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gone&nbsp;","listText":"Gone&nbsp;","text":"Gone","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/383865371","repostId":"1149038980","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149038980","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612864337,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1149038980?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-09 17:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"These 12 lessons from the GameStop and AMC frenzy can help you make money trading stocks (or at least lose less)<blockquote>游戏驿站和AMC狂潮的这12个教训可以帮助您通过股票交易赚钱（或至少损失更少）</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149038980","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"I can hear the cries from investors who racked up huge profits in GameStop or AMC Entertainment Hold","content":"<p>I can hear the cries from investors who racked up huge profits in GameStop&nbsp;or AMC Entertainment Holdings&nbsp;for a few hours or days, only to watch their gains evaporate.</p><p><blockquote>我可以听到投资者的呼声，他们在游戏驿站或AMC院线控股公司中获得了几个小时或几天的巨额利润，却眼睁睁地看着他们的收益蒸发。</blockquote></p><p> This coordinated bull raid was initiated by thousands of retail investors on Reddit, a popular website forum. We heard stories of fortunes made and lost. The ones we didn’t hear were from the folks in-between — small retail traders and investors who suffered thousands of dollars (or more) in losses.</p><p><blockquote>这场协同的牛市突袭是由热门网站论坛Reddit上的数千名散户投资者发起的。我们听到了财富创造和损失的故事。我们没有听到的是介于两者之间的人——遭受数千美元（或更多）损失的小型散户交易者和投资者。</blockquote></p><p> For those still holding GME or AMC, or for those eager to pounce on the next volatile meme stock, I offer the following advice based on personal experience and observations. These are the lessons you must know before you ever get involved in the stock or options market (or if you are holding a winning stock or option):</p><p><blockquote>对于那些仍然持有GME或AMC的人，或者那些渴望抓住下一个波动的模因股票的人，我根据个人经验和观察提供以下建议。以下是您在参与股票或期权市场（或者如果您持有获胜的股票或期权）之前必须了解的经验教训：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Don’t sell stocks or options on products you don’t own:</b>The traders who lost the most money in GameStop and AMC were those who sold “naked” calls and puts (i.e. they sold options on stocks they didn’t own), or those who sold shares short (again, they sold shares on a stock they didn’t own). When using this extremely risky strategy, you can make a fortune if you’re right. If you’re wrong, the losses can be incalculable. In reality, some unwary traders lost tens of thousands of dollars last week on positions that cost a few thousand dollars. Once again, don’t sell anything naked unless you’re a professional, and in this case even the pros lost big on that risky bet.</p><p><blockquote><b>1.不要出售你不拥有的产品的股票或期权：</b>在游戏驿站和AMC损失最大的交易者是那些出售“裸”评级和看跌期权（即他们出售他们不拥有的股票的期权）的交易者，或者那些卖空股票的交易者（同样，他们出售他们不拥有的股票的股票）。当使用这种风险极高的策略时，如果你是对的，你可以发财。如果你错了，损失是无法估量的。事实上，一些粗心的交易者上周在几千美元的头寸上损失了数万美元。再说一次，除非你是专业人士，否则不要裸卖任何东西，在这种情况下，即使是专业人士也会在这个冒险的赌注上损失惨重。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Sell at the “zero point.”</b>&nbsp; Here’s a rule I created: If you have huge gains that disappear and you are at the zero point (i.e. break-even), sell before you have real losses. It’s better to walk away at zero than with losses.</p><p><blockquote><b>2.在“零点”卖出。</b>我制定了一条规则：如果你的巨额收益消失了，而你处于零点（即盈亏平衡），在你真正亏损之前卖出。零分离开总比亏损好。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Don’t be a stubborn seller:</b>Why is it so hard for most traders to walk away at the zero point? Stubbornness. Many traders made huge gains last week only to watch those profits disappear. They refused to sell because they hoped to make their money back. If holding options, that’s not going to happen. (If you bought at or near the high, your money is gone. If you hold a stock, plan to wait months or even years to recover. Stubborn stockholders often end up as “stuckholders.”</p><p><blockquote><b>3.不要做固执的卖家：</b>为什么大多数交易者很难在零点离开？固执。许多交易者上周获得了巨大的收益，却眼睁睁地看着这些利润消失。他们拒绝出售，因为他们希望把钱赚回来。如果持有期权，这种情况就不会发生。（如果你在高点或附近买入，你的钱就没了。如果你持有一只股票，计划等待几个月甚至几年才能恢复。顽固的股东往往最终成为“持卡人”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Take the money and run:</b>When you are holding a stock or option position that brings outsized profits, either sell half of your holding or all of it — but get out. I call this “selling at extremes.” Sell something when the profits are beyond your wildest expectations. We all know the story of the gambler who wins big at the casino, but doesn’t leave the table until all his money is gone. Know when to walk away from the computer. Profits are fleeting, especially when volatility skyrockets.</p><p><blockquote><b>4.拿了钱就跑：</b>当你持有一个能带来巨额利润的股票或期权头寸时，要么卖出一半，要么全部——但要退出。我看涨期权这个“极端销售”。当利润超出你最疯狂的预期时，卖掉一些东西。我们都知道一个赌徒的故事，他在赌场赢了大钱，但直到他所有的钱都花光了才离开牌桌。知道什么时候离开电脑。利润转瞬即逝，尤其是当波动性飙升时。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5.Trade small when making longshot trades (i.e. gambling):</b>GameStop and AMC were both big gambles, and for a time the trade worked if you were long. But if you bet wrong? I spoke to a few of these traders. One lost $8,000 on a single option contract. If he had traded his normal size (30 contracts), he told me, his losses would have been more than $240,000.</p><p><blockquote><b>5.进行长期交易（即赌博）时进行小额交易：</b>游戏驿站和AMC都是豪赌，有一段时间，如果你做多，交易就会奏效。但如果你赌错了呢？我和其中一些交易员谈过。一个人在一份期权合约上损失了8,000美元。他告诉我，如果他交易的是正常规模（30份合约），他的损失将超过24万美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6. Don’t expect this trading frenzy to keep happening:</b>It’s possible that a group of traders on the Reddit forum will band together for more bear- or bull raids. Except Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed Chair Jerome Powell are most likely creating new rules to prevent this from repeating. The Fed hates volatility and will do everything in its power to keep the markets calm. So once again, when you make big money on a trade, take the money as fast as you can — because you may not get the chance again.</p><p><blockquote><b>6.不要指望这种交易狂潮会一直发生：</b>Reddit论坛上的一群交易者可能会联合起来进行更多的熊市或牛市袭击。除了财政部长珍妮特·耶伦和美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔很可能会制定新规则来防止这种情况再次发生。美联储讨厌波动，并将尽一切努力保持市场平静。所以，再一次，当你在一笔交易中赚了大钱时，尽快拿钱——因为你可能不会再有机会了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>7. Stop bragging about how much money you made</b>: Many traders who won big immediately bragged on social media (and to their jealous friends) about how much money they made on this trade. Yet the euphoric feeling they had was temporary. It usually goes away after all the money is gone. The smart (and polite) traders took their gains and kept the win to themselves</p><p><blockquote><b>7.不要吹嘘你赚了多少钱</b>：许多赢得大奖的交易者立即在社交媒体上（以及向嫉妒的朋友）吹嘘他们在这笔交易中赚了多少钱。然而，他们的兴奋感是暂时的。一般钱都没了就没了。聪明（和礼貌）的交易者拿走了他们的收益，并把胜利留给了自己</blockquote></p><p> <b>8. Use a time stop:</b>Time stops are not well-known or popular, but with fast-moving stocks (or when trading options), they are invaluable. In an extremely fast market, the traditional stop-limit order won’t get filled, as many of those meme-stock traders found out the hard way. Instead, after making a huge profit, set a day or time to sell. For example, you may sell the position by Friday no matter what (although selling at extremes is better — see Rule #4).</p><p><blockquote><b>8.使用时间停止：</b>时间止损并不广为人知或流行，但对于快速波动的股票（或交易期权时），它们是无价的。在速度极快的市场中，传统的限价止损单不会被执行，正如许多模因股票交易者艰难地发现的那样。而是在获得巨额利润后，设定一个卖出的日期或时间。例如，无论如何，你都可以在周五之前卖出头寸（尽管在极端情况下卖出更好——见规则4）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>9. Sell half or all of the position:</b>It’s never an easy decision to know when to sell. If you sell too early, it’s annoying to watch the stock go higher. Sell too late and you lose money. Selling half of your holding is a reasonable alternative, but you must be prepared to sell the other half if the position goes against you.</p><p><blockquote><b>9.卖出一半或全部仓位：</b>知道何时出售从来都不是一个容易的决定。如果你卖得太早，看着股票走高会很烦人。卖得太晚，你就会赔钱。出售一半持股是一个合理的选择，但如果头寸对您不利，您必须准备好出售另一半。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>10. Don’t seek revenge when you lose money on a stock:</b>It’s common for traders to seek revenge on a stock they lost money on. Do not fall for this emotional trap. If you lost money on a stock, let it go and move on.</p><p><blockquote><b>10.当你在股票上亏损时不要寻求报复：</b>交易者对亏损的股票进行报复是很常见的。不要落入这个情感陷阱。如果你在一只股票上亏了钱，就让它过去，继续前进。</blockquote></p><p> <b>11. Trade small after you made or lost big:</b>If you’re feeling emotional about a stock, including feelings of anger or revenge, trade small. Many people who hit it big in the market can’t help but make bigger and bigger bets. Just like the gamblers at a casino, they keep trading until all their money is gone.</p><p><blockquote><b>11.在你赚了大钱或亏了大钱之后进行小额交易：</b>如果您对一只股票感到情绪化，包括愤怒或报复的感觉，请少量交易。很多在市场上大获全胜的人，都忍不住下了越来越大的赌注。就像赌场里的赌徒一样，他们不断交易，直到所有的钱都花光。</blockquote></p><p> You don’t think it can happen to you? One of the greatest speculators in the world, Jesse Livermore, made $100 million dollars in a single week in 1929. He then lost all of his money within five years. He should have moved most of his profits out of the market after his big win and traded small for the next year. Instead, he got reckless and lost it all.</p><p><blockquote>你觉得这不会发生在你身上吗？1929年，世界上最伟大的投机者之一杰西·利弗莫尔在一周内赚了1亿美元。然后他在五年内失去了所有的钱。他应该在大获全胜后将大部分利润撤出市场，并在第二年进行小额交易。相反，他变得鲁莽，失去了一切。</blockquote></p><p> <b>12. Don’t take on too much risk:</b>Never invest or trade with so much money that if you lost, you’d lose your house or 401(k). Brokers told me about clients who cleared out their retirement funds or took cash advances on their credit cards so they could buy GameStop and AMC. Some won, some lost, but many took on way too much risk.</p><p><blockquote><b>12.不要承担太多风险：</b>永远不要用太多的钱投资或交易，如果你输了，你就会失去你的房子或401(k)。经纪人告诉我，一些客户清空了退休基金或从信用卡上预支现金，以便购买游戏驿站和AMC。有些人赢了，有些人输了，但许多人冒了太多的风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The meme-stock pyramid scheme</b></p><p><blockquote><b>模因股票金字塔计划</b></blockquote></p><p> Those who traded GameStop, AMC and other meme stocks thought they were trading, but they were actually participating in a gigantic pyramid scheme. Those who got in early and got out early probably did well. Those who entered late or held too long lost money.</p><p><blockquote>那些交易游戏驿站、AMC和其他模因股票的人以为他们在交易，但他们实际上是在参与一个巨大的金字塔计划。那些早进早出的人可能做得很好。那些进入较晚或持有时间过长的人亏损了。</blockquote></p><p> My advice: Review these 12 rules periodically. They are based on the experiences and the bad luck of thousands of other traders, including myself, who thought we were smarter than the market. In truth the market was smarter than us — because it always is.</p><p><blockquote>我的建议是：定期回顾这12条规则。它们是基于成千上万其他交易者的经验和坏运气，包括我自己，他们认为我们比市场更聪明。事实上，市场比我们聪明——因为它总是如此。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>These 12 lessons from the GameStop and AMC frenzy can help you make money trading stocks (or at least lose less)<blockquote>游戏驿站和AMC狂潮的这12个教训可以帮助您通过股票交易赚钱（或至少损失更少）</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThese 12 lessons from the GameStop and AMC frenzy can help you make money trading stocks (or at least lose less)<blockquote>游戏驿站和AMC狂潮的这12个教训可以帮助您通过股票交易赚钱（或至少损失更少）</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-09 17:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>I can hear the cries from investors who racked up huge profits in GameStop&nbsp;or AMC Entertainment Holdings&nbsp;for a few hours or days, only to watch their gains evaporate.</p><p><blockquote>我可以听到投资者的呼声，他们在游戏驿站或AMC院线控股公司中获得了几个小时或几天的巨额利润，却眼睁睁地看着他们的收益蒸发。</blockquote></p><p> This coordinated bull raid was initiated by thousands of retail investors on Reddit, a popular website forum. We heard stories of fortunes made and lost. The ones we didn’t hear were from the folks in-between — small retail traders and investors who suffered thousands of dollars (or more) in losses.</p><p><blockquote>这场协同的牛市突袭是由热门网站论坛Reddit上的数千名散户投资者发起的。我们听到了财富创造和损失的故事。我们没有听到的是介于两者之间的人——遭受数千美元（或更多）损失的小型散户交易者和投资者。</blockquote></p><p> For those still holding GME or AMC, or for those eager to pounce on the next volatile meme stock, I offer the following advice based on personal experience and observations. These are the lessons you must know before you ever get involved in the stock or options market (or if you are holding a winning stock or option):</p><p><blockquote>对于那些仍然持有GME或AMC的人，或者那些渴望抓住下一个波动的模因股票的人，我根据个人经验和观察提供以下建议。以下是您在参与股票或期权市场（或者如果您持有获胜的股票或期权）之前必须了解的经验教训：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Don’t sell stocks or options on products you don’t own:</b>The traders who lost the most money in GameStop and AMC were those who sold “naked” calls and puts (i.e. they sold options on stocks they didn’t own), or those who sold shares short (again, they sold shares on a stock they didn’t own). When using this extremely risky strategy, you can make a fortune if you’re right. If you’re wrong, the losses can be incalculable. In reality, some unwary traders lost tens of thousands of dollars last week on positions that cost a few thousand dollars. Once again, don’t sell anything naked unless you’re a professional, and in this case even the pros lost big on that risky bet.</p><p><blockquote><b>1.不要出售你不拥有的产品的股票或期权：</b>在游戏驿站和AMC损失最大的交易者是那些出售“裸”评级和看跌期权（即他们出售他们不拥有的股票的期权）的交易者，或者那些卖空股票的交易者（同样，他们出售他们不拥有的股票的股票）。当使用这种风险极高的策略时，如果你是对的，你可以发财。如果你错了，损失是无法估量的。事实上，一些粗心的交易者上周在几千美元的头寸上损失了数万美元。再说一次，除非你是专业人士，否则不要裸卖任何东西，在这种情况下，即使是专业人士也会在这个冒险的赌注上损失惨重。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Sell at the “zero point.”</b>&nbsp; Here’s a rule I created: If you have huge gains that disappear and you are at the zero point (i.e. break-even), sell before you have real losses. It’s better to walk away at zero than with losses.</p><p><blockquote><b>2.在“零点”卖出。</b>我制定了一条规则：如果你的巨额收益消失了，而你处于零点（即盈亏平衡），在你真正亏损之前卖出。零分离开总比亏损好。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Don’t be a stubborn seller:</b>Why is it so hard for most traders to walk away at the zero point? Stubbornness. Many traders made huge gains last week only to watch those profits disappear. They refused to sell because they hoped to make their money back. If holding options, that’s not going to happen. (If you bought at or near the high, your money is gone. If you hold a stock, plan to wait months or even years to recover. Stubborn stockholders often end up as “stuckholders.”</p><p><blockquote><b>3.不要做固执的卖家：</b>为什么大多数交易者很难在零点离开？固执。许多交易者上周获得了巨大的收益，却眼睁睁地看着这些利润消失。他们拒绝出售，因为他们希望把钱赚回来。如果持有期权，这种情况就不会发生。（如果你在高点或附近买入，你的钱就没了。如果你持有一只股票，计划等待几个月甚至几年才能恢复。顽固的股东往往最终成为“持卡人”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Take the money and run:</b>When you are holding a stock or option position that brings outsized profits, either sell half of your holding or all of it — but get out. I call this “selling at extremes.” Sell something when the profits are beyond your wildest expectations. We all know the story of the gambler who wins big at the casino, but doesn’t leave the table until all his money is gone. Know when to walk away from the computer. Profits are fleeting, especially when volatility skyrockets.</p><p><blockquote><b>4.拿了钱就跑：</b>当你持有一个能带来巨额利润的股票或期权头寸时，要么卖出一半，要么全部——但要退出。我看涨期权这个“极端销售”。当利润超出你最疯狂的预期时，卖掉一些东西。我们都知道一个赌徒的故事，他在赌场赢了大钱，但直到他所有的钱都花光了才离开牌桌。知道什么时候离开电脑。利润转瞬即逝，尤其是当波动性飙升时。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5.Trade small when making longshot trades (i.e. gambling):</b>GameStop and AMC were both big gambles, and for a time the trade worked if you were long. But if you bet wrong? I spoke to a few of these traders. One lost $8,000 on a single option contract. If he had traded his normal size (30 contracts), he told me, his losses would have been more than $240,000.</p><p><blockquote><b>5.进行长期交易（即赌博）时进行小额交易：</b>游戏驿站和AMC都是豪赌，有一段时间，如果你做多，交易就会奏效。但如果你赌错了呢？我和其中一些交易员谈过。一个人在一份期权合约上损失了8,000美元。他告诉我，如果他交易的是正常规模（30份合约），他的损失将超过24万美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6. Don’t expect this trading frenzy to keep happening:</b>It’s possible that a group of traders on the Reddit forum will band together for more bear- or bull raids. Except Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed Chair Jerome Powell are most likely creating new rules to prevent this from repeating. The Fed hates volatility and will do everything in its power to keep the markets calm. So once again, when you make big money on a trade, take the money as fast as you can — because you may not get the chance again.</p><p><blockquote><b>6.不要指望这种交易狂潮会一直发生：</b>Reddit论坛上的一群交易者可能会联合起来进行更多的熊市或牛市袭击。除了财政部长珍妮特·耶伦和美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔很可能会制定新规则来防止这种情况再次发生。美联储讨厌波动，并将尽一切努力保持市场平静。所以，再一次，当你在一笔交易中赚了大钱时，尽快拿钱——因为你可能不会再有机会了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>7. Stop bragging about how much money you made</b>: Many traders who won big immediately bragged on social media (and to their jealous friends) about how much money they made on this trade. Yet the euphoric feeling they had was temporary. It usually goes away after all the money is gone. The smart (and polite) traders took their gains and kept the win to themselves</p><p><blockquote><b>7.不要吹嘘你赚了多少钱</b>：许多赢得大奖的交易者立即在社交媒体上（以及向嫉妒的朋友）吹嘘他们在这笔交易中赚了多少钱。然而，他们的兴奋感是暂时的。一般钱都没了就没了。聪明（和礼貌）的交易者拿走了他们的收益，并把胜利留给了自己</blockquote></p><p> <b>8. Use a time stop:</b>Time stops are not well-known or popular, but with fast-moving stocks (or when trading options), they are invaluable. In an extremely fast market, the traditional stop-limit order won’t get filled, as many of those meme-stock traders found out the hard way. Instead, after making a huge profit, set a day or time to sell. For example, you may sell the position by Friday no matter what (although selling at extremes is better — see Rule #4).</p><p><blockquote><b>8.使用时间停止：</b>时间止损并不广为人知或流行，但对于快速波动的股票（或交易期权时），它们是无价的。在速度极快的市场中，传统的限价止损单不会被执行，正如许多模因股票交易者艰难地发现的那样。而是在获得巨额利润后，设定一个卖出的日期或时间。例如，无论如何，你都可以在周五之前卖出头寸（尽管在极端情况下卖出更好——见规则4）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>9. Sell half or all of the position:</b>It’s never an easy decision to know when to sell. If you sell too early, it’s annoying to watch the stock go higher. Sell too late and you lose money. Selling half of your holding is a reasonable alternative, but you must be prepared to sell the other half if the position goes against you.</p><p><blockquote><b>9.卖出一半或全部仓位：</b>知道何时出售从来都不是一个容易的决定。如果你卖得太早，看着股票走高会很烦人。卖得太晚，你就会赔钱。出售一半持股是一个合理的选择，但如果头寸对您不利，您必须准备好出售另一半。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>10. Don’t seek revenge when you lose money on a stock:</b>It’s common for traders to seek revenge on a stock they lost money on. Do not fall for this emotional trap. If you lost money on a stock, let it go and move on.</p><p><blockquote><b>10.当你在股票上亏损时不要寻求报复：</b>交易者对亏损的股票进行报复是很常见的。不要落入这个情感陷阱。如果你在一只股票上亏了钱，就让它过去，继续前进。</blockquote></p><p> <b>11. Trade small after you made or lost big:</b>If you’re feeling emotional about a stock, including feelings of anger or revenge, trade small. Many people who hit it big in the market can’t help but make bigger and bigger bets. Just like the gamblers at a casino, they keep trading until all their money is gone.</p><p><blockquote><b>11.在你赚了大钱或亏了大钱之后进行小额交易：</b>如果您对一只股票感到情绪化，包括愤怒或报复的感觉，请少量交易。很多在市场上大获全胜的人，都忍不住下了越来越大的赌注。就像赌场里的赌徒一样，他们不断交易，直到所有的钱都花光。</blockquote></p><p> You don’t think it can happen to you? One of the greatest speculators in the world, Jesse Livermore, made $100 million dollars in a single week in 1929. He then lost all of his money within five years. He should have moved most of his profits out of the market after his big win and traded small for the next year. Instead, he got reckless and lost it all.</p><p><blockquote>你觉得这不会发生在你身上吗？1929年，世界上最伟大的投机者之一杰西·利弗莫尔在一周内赚了1亿美元。然后他在五年内失去了所有的钱。他应该在大获全胜后将大部分利润撤出市场，并在第二年进行小额交易。相反，他变得鲁莽，失去了一切。</blockquote></p><p> <b>12. Don’t take on too much risk:</b>Never invest or trade with so much money that if you lost, you’d lose your house or 401(k). Brokers told me about clients who cleared out their retirement funds or took cash advances on their credit cards so they could buy GameStop and AMC. Some won, some lost, but many took on way too much risk.</p><p><blockquote><b>12.不要承担太多风险：</b>永远不要用太多的钱投资或交易，如果你输了，你就会失去你的房子或401(k)。经纪人告诉我，一些客户清空了退休基金或从信用卡上预支现金，以便购买游戏驿站和AMC。有些人赢了，有些人输了，但许多人冒了太多的风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The meme-stock pyramid scheme</b></p><p><blockquote><b>模因股票金字塔计划</b></blockquote></p><p> Those who traded GameStop, AMC and other meme stocks thought they were trading, but they were actually participating in a gigantic pyramid scheme. Those who got in early and got out early probably did well. Those who entered late or held too long lost money.</p><p><blockquote>那些交易游戏驿站、AMC和其他模因股票的人以为他们在交易，但他们实际上是在参与一个巨大的金字塔计划。那些早进早出的人可能做得很好。那些进入较晚或持有时间过长的人亏损了。</blockquote></p><p> My advice: Review these 12 rules periodically. They are based on the experiences and the bad luck of thousands of other traders, including myself, who thought we were smarter than the market. In truth the market was smarter than us — because it always is.</p><p><blockquote>我的建议是：定期回顾这12条规则。它们是基于成千上万其他交易者的经验和坏运气，包括我自己，他们认为我们比市场更聪明。事实上，市场比我们聪明——因为它总是如此。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-12-lessons-from-the-gamestop-and-amc-frenzy-can-help-you-make-money-trading-stocks-or-at-least-lose-less-11612771522?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线",".DJI":"道琼斯","GME":"游戏驿站",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-12-lessons-from-the-gamestop-and-amc-frenzy-can-help-you-make-money-trading-stocks-or-at-least-lose-less-11612771522?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1149038980","content_text":"I can hear the cries from investors who racked up huge profits in GameStop or AMC Entertainment Holdings for a few hours or days, only to watch their gains evaporate.\nThis coordinated bull raid was initiated by thousands of retail investors on Reddit, a popular website forum. We heard stories of fortunes made and lost. The ones we didn’t hear were from the folks in-between — small retail traders and investors who suffered thousands of dollars (or more) in losses.\nFor those still holding GME or AMC, or for those eager to pounce on the next volatile meme stock, I offer the following advice based on personal experience and observations. These are the lessons you must know before you ever get involved in the stock or options market (or if you are holding a winning stock or option):\n1. Don’t sell stocks or options on products you don’t own:The traders who lost the most money in GameStop and AMC were those who sold “naked” calls and puts (i.e. they sold options on stocks they didn’t own), or those who sold shares short (again, they sold shares on a stock they didn’t own). When using this extremely risky strategy, you can make a fortune if you’re right. If you’re wrong, the losses can be incalculable. In reality, some unwary traders lost tens of thousands of dollars last week on positions that cost a few thousand dollars. Once again, don’t sell anything naked unless you’re a professional, and in this case even the pros lost big on that risky bet.\n2. Sell at the “zero point.”  Here’s a rule I created: If you have huge gains that disappear and you are at the zero point (i.e. break-even), sell before you have real losses. It’s better to walk away at zero than with losses.\n3. Don’t be a stubborn seller:Why is it so hard for most traders to walk away at the zero point? Stubbornness. Many traders made huge gains last week only to watch those profits disappear. They refused to sell because they hoped to make their money back. If holding options, that’s not going to happen. (If you bought at or near the high, your money is gone. If you hold a stock, plan to wait months or even years to recover. Stubborn stockholders often end up as “stuckholders.”\n4. Take the money and run:When you are holding a stock or option position that brings outsized profits, either sell half of your holding or all of it — but get out. I call this “selling at extremes.” Sell something when the profits are beyond your wildest expectations. We all know the story of the gambler who wins big at the casino, but doesn’t leave the table until all his money is gone. Know when to walk away from the computer. Profits are fleeting, especially when volatility skyrockets.\n5.Trade small when making longshot trades (i.e. gambling):GameStop and AMC were both big gambles, and for a time the trade worked if you were long. But if you bet wrong? I spoke to a few of these traders. One lost $8,000 on a single option contract. If he had traded his normal size (30 contracts), he told me, his losses would have been more than $240,000.\n6. Don’t expect this trading frenzy to keep happening:It’s possible that a group of traders on the Reddit forum will band together for more bear- or bull raids. Except Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed Chair Jerome Powell are most likely creating new rules to prevent this from repeating. The Fed hates volatility and will do everything in its power to keep the markets calm. So once again, when you make big money on a trade, take the money as fast as you can — because you may not get the chance again.\n7. Stop bragging about how much money you made: Many traders who won big immediately bragged on social media (and to their jealous friends) about how much money they made on this trade. Yet the euphoric feeling they had was temporary. It usually goes away after all the money is gone. The smart (and polite) traders took their gains and kept the win to themselves\n8. Use a time stop:Time stops are not well-known or popular, but with fast-moving stocks (or when trading options), they are invaluable. In an extremely fast market, the traditional stop-limit order won’t get filled, as many of those meme-stock traders found out the hard way. Instead, after making a huge profit, set a day or time to sell. For example, you may sell the position by Friday no matter what (although selling at extremes is better — see Rule #4).\n9. Sell half or all of the position:It’s never an easy decision to know when to sell. If you sell too early, it’s annoying to watch the stock go higher. Sell too late and you lose money. Selling half of your holding is a reasonable alternative, but you must be prepared to sell the other half if the position goes against you.\n10. Don’t seek revenge when you lose money on a stock:It’s common for traders to seek revenge on a stock they lost money on. Do not fall for this emotional trap. If you lost money on a stock, let it go and move on.\n11. Trade small after you made or lost big:If you’re feeling emotional about a stock, including feelings of anger or revenge, trade small. Many people who hit it big in the market can’t help but make bigger and bigger bets. Just like the gamblers at a casino, they keep trading until all their money is gone.\nYou don’t think it can happen to you? One of the greatest speculators in the world, Jesse Livermore, made $100 million dollars in a single week in 1929. He then lost all of his money within five years. He should have moved most of his profits out of the market after his big win and traded small for the next year. Instead, he got reckless and lost it all.\n12. Don’t take on too much risk:Never invest or trade with so much money that if you lost, you’d lose your house or 401(k). Brokers told me about clients who cleared out their retirement funds or took cash advances on their credit cards so they could buy GameStop and AMC. Some won, some lost, but many took on way too much risk.\nThe meme-stock pyramid scheme\nThose who traded GameStop, AMC and other meme stocks thought they were trading, but they were actually participating in a gigantic pyramid scheme. Those who got in early and got out early probably did well. Those who entered late or held too long lost money.\nMy advice: Review these 12 rules periodically. They are based on the experiences and the bad luck of thousands of other traders, including myself, who thought we were smarter than the market. In truth the market was smarter than us — because it always 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16:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Luckin Coffee’s Restructuring Efforts Move Forward with Commencement of its Chapter 15 Case in the United States<blockquote>随着美国破产法第15章案件的启动，瑞星咖啡的重组工作向前推进</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142907763","media":"globenewswire","summary":"Coordination between the Cayman Court and the U.S. Bankruptcy Court to Protect the Interests of Stak","content":"<p><i>Coordination between the Cayman Court and the U.S. Bankruptcy Court to Protect the Interests of Stakeholders and Facilitate LuckinCoffee’s Restructuring of its Financial Obligations</i></p><p><blockquote><i>开曼法院与美国破产法院之间的协调，以保护利益相关者的利益并促进瑞幸咖啡重组其财务义务</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>All Company Stores Remain Open and Serving Customers in China; No Material Impact on Daily Operations Expected</i></p><p><blockquote><i>公司所有门店保持营业并为中国客户提供服务；预计不会对日常运营产生重大影响</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Company Continues to Meet Trade Obligations in the Ordinary Course of Business, Including Paying Suppliers, Vendors and Employees</i></p><p><blockquote><i>公司在日常业务过程中继续履行贸易义务，包括向供应商、销售商和员工付款</i></blockquote></p><p> BEIJING, Feb. 05, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The Joint Provisional Liquidators (the “JPLs”) of Luckin Coffee Inc. (the “Company”) (OTC:LKNCY), Alexander Lawson of Alvarez &amp; Marsal Cayman Islands Limited and Wing Sze Tiffany Wong of Alvarez &amp; Marsal Asia Limited, today filed a verified petition under chapter 15 of title 11 of the United States Code (the “Chapter 15 Petition”) with the United States Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York (the “U.S. Bankruptcy Court”). The Chapter 15 Petition seeks, among other things, recognition in the United States of the Company’s provisional liquidation pending before the Grand Court of the Cayman Islands (the “Cayman Court”), Financial Services Division, Cause No. 157 of 2020 (ASCJ) (the “Cayman Proceeding”)1and related relief.</p><p><blockquote>北京，2021年2月5日(环球通讯社)--瑞星咖啡公司（“公司”）（场外交易代码：LKNCY）的联合临时清算人（“JPLs”）、Alvarez&amp;Marsal Cayman Islands Limited的Alexander Lawson和Alvarez&amp;Marsal Asia Limited的Wing Sze Tiffany Wong今天根据美国法典第11篇第15章向美国纽约南区破产法院（“美国破产法院”）提交了一份经过验证的请愿书（“第15章请愿书”）。第15章呈请寻求（其中包括）美国承认本公司在开曼群岛大法院（“开曼法院”）金融服务部2020年第157号案件（ASCJ）（“开曼程序”）1待决的临时清算及相关救济。</blockquote></p><p> The Company is negotiating with its stakeholders regarding the restructuring of the Company’s financial obligations, to strengthen the Company’s balance sheet and enable it to emerge from the Cayman Proceeding as a going concern, for the benefit of all stakeholders. The relief sought in the Chapter 15 Petition is an important component of the Company’s restructuring. This relief will promote centralized administration of the Company’s assets by permitting coordination between the Cayman Court and the U.S. Bankruptcy Court, to protect the interests of stakeholders while facilitating the Company’s restructuring.</p><p><blockquote>为了所有利益相关者的利益，公司正在与其利益相关者就公司财务义务的重组进行谈判，以加强公司的资产负债表，并使其能够作为持续经营企业摆脱开曼诉讼。第15章申请中寻求的救济是公司重组的重要组成部分。这项救济将通过允许开曼法院和美国破产法院之间的协调来促进公司资产的集中管理，以保护利益相关者的利益，同时促进公司的重组。</blockquote></p><p> All Company stores remain open for business, offering products with high quality, affordability and convenience to its customers in China. The filing of the Chapter 15 Petition is not expected to materially impact the Company’s day-to-day operations. The Company continues to meet its trade obligations in the ordinary course of business, including paying suppliers, vendors and employees.</p><p><blockquote>公司的所有商店仍然营业，为中国的客户提供高质量、实惠和便利的产品。根据美国破产法第15章提交请愿书预计不会对公司的日常运营产生重大影响。公司在日常业务过程中继续履行其贸易义务，包括向供应商、销售商和员工付款。</blockquote></p><p> ______</p><p><blockquote>______</blockquote></p><p> 1The Company previously disclosed the commencement of the Cayman Proceeding on July 15, 2020.</p><p><blockquote>1本公司早前披露开曼诉讼于2020年7月15日展开。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Safe Harbor Statement</b></p><p><blockquote><b>安全港声明</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> This announcement contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. These forward-looking statements are made under the “safe harbor” provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements can be identified by terminology such as “will,” “expects,” “anticipates,” “future,” “intends,” “plans,” “believes,” “estimates,” “potential,” “continue,” “ongoing,” “targets,” “guidance” and similar statements. The Company may also make written or oral forward-looking statements in its periodic reports to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”), in its annual report to shareholders, in press releases and other written materials and in oral statements made by its officers, directors or employees to third parties, including Joint Provisional Liquidators. Any statements that are not historical facts, including statements about the Company’s beliefs and expectations, are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement, including but not limited to the following: the expense, timing and outcome of existing or future legal and governmental proceedings, investigations in connection with the Company; the outcome and effect of the ongoing restructuring of the Company’s financial obligations; the Company’s growth strategies; its future business development, results of operations and financial condition; the effect of the non-reliance identified in, and the resultant restatement of, certain of the Company’s previously issued financial results; the timing of the completion or outcome of the audit of the Company’s financial statements; the effectiveness of its internal control; its ability to retain and attract its customers; its ability to maintain and enhance the recognition and reputation of its brand; its ability to maintain and improve quality control policies and measures; its ability to establish and maintain relationships with its suppliers and business partners; trends and competition in China’s coffee industry or China’s food and beverage sector in general; changes in its revenues and certain cost or expense items; the expected growth of China’s coffee industry or China’s food and beverage sector in general; PRC governmental policies and regulations relating to the Company’s industry; the potential effects of COVID-19; and general economic and business conditions globally and in China and assumptions underlying or related to any of the foregoing. Further information regarding these and other risks, uncertainties or factors is included in the Company’s filings with the SEC. All information provided in this press release and in the attachments is as of the date of this press release, and the Company undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement, except as required under applicable law.</p><p><blockquote>本公告包含经修订的1934年证券交易法第21E节含义内的前瞻性陈述。这些前瞻性陈述是根据1995年美国私人证券诉讼改革法案的“安全港”条款做出的。这些陈述可以通过术语来识别，例如“将”、“期望”、“预期”、“未来”、“打算”、“计划”、“相信”、“估计”、“潜力”、“继续”、“正在进行”、“目标”、“指导”和类似的陈述。公司还可能在向美国证券交易委员会（“SEC”）提交的定期报告、向股东提交的年度报告、新闻稿和其他书面材料以及口头声明中做出书面或口头前瞻性陈述。其管理人员、董事或员工向第三方（包括联合临时清算人）。任何非历史事实的陈述，包括有关公司信念和期望的陈述，都是前瞻性陈述。前瞻性陈述涉及固有的风险和不确定性。许多因素可能导致实际结果与任何前瞻性陈述中包含的结果存在重大差异，包括但不限于以下内容：与公司相关的现有或未来法律和政府诉讼、调查的费用、时间和结果；公司财务义务正在进行的重组的结果和影响；公司的增长战略；其未来业务发展、经营业绩及财务状况；公司之前发布的某些财务业绩中识别的非依赖以及由此导致的重述的影响；公司财务报表审计的完成时间或结果；内部控制的有效性；其留住和吸引客户的能力；其维持及提升其品牌知名度及声誉的能力；其维持和改进质量控制政策和措施的能力；其与供应商和业务合作伙伴建立和维护关系的能力；中国咖啡行业或中国食品及饮料行业的趋势及竞争；其收入和某些成本或费用项目的变化；中国咖啡行业或中国食品及饮料行业整体的预期增长；与本公司所处行业有关的中国政府政策及法规；新冠肺炎的潜在影响以及全球和中国的总体经济和商业状况以及与上述任何内容相关或相关的假设。有关这些和其他风险、不确定性或因素的更多信息包含在公司向SEC提交的文件中。本新闻稿和附件中提供的所有信息均截至本新闻稿发布之日，公司不承担更新任何前瞻性声明的义务，除非适用法律要求。</blockquote></p><p> <b>About Luckin Coffee Inc.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关于瑞星咖啡公司。</b></blockquote></p><p> Luckin Coffee Inc.&nbsp;(OTC:LKNCY) has pioneered a technology-driven retail network to provide coffee and other products of high quality, high affordability, and high convenience to customers. Empowered by big data analytics, AI, and proprietary technologies, the Company pursues its mission to be part of everyone’s everyday life, starting with coffee. The Company was founded in 2017 and is based in&nbsp;China. </p><p><blockquote>瑞星咖啡公司（场外交易代码：LKNCY）开创了一个技术驱动的零售网络，为顾客提供高品质、高性价比和高便利性的咖啡和其他产品。在大数据分析、人工智能和专有技术的支持下，该公司追求成为每个人日常生活一部分的使命，从咖啡开始。该公司成立于2017年，总部位于中国。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1573717531661","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Luckin Coffee’s Restructuring Efforts Move Forward with Commencement of its Chapter 15 Case in the United States<blockquote>随着美国破产法第15章案件的启动，瑞星咖啡的重组工作向前推进</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLuckin Coffee’s Restructuring Efforts Move Forward with Commencement of its Chapter 15 Case in the United States<blockquote>随着美国破产法第15章案件的启动，瑞星咖啡的重组工作向前推进</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">globenewswire</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-05 16:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i>Coordination between the Cayman Court and the U.S. Bankruptcy Court to Protect the Interests of Stakeholders and Facilitate LuckinCoffee’s Restructuring of its Financial Obligations</i></p><p><blockquote><i>开曼法院与美国破产法院之间的协调，以保护利益相关者的利益并促进瑞幸咖啡重组其财务义务</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>All Company Stores Remain Open and Serving Customers in China; No Material Impact on Daily Operations Expected</i></p><p><blockquote><i>公司所有门店保持营业并为中国客户提供服务；预计不会对日常运营产生重大影响</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Company Continues to Meet Trade Obligations in the Ordinary Course of Business, Including Paying Suppliers, Vendors and Employees</i></p><p><blockquote><i>公司在日常业务过程中继续履行贸易义务，包括向供应商、销售商和员工付款</i></blockquote></p><p> BEIJING, Feb. 05, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The Joint Provisional Liquidators (the “JPLs”) of Luckin Coffee Inc. (the “Company”) (OTC:LKNCY), Alexander Lawson of Alvarez &amp; Marsal Cayman Islands Limited and Wing Sze Tiffany Wong of Alvarez &amp; Marsal Asia Limited, today filed a verified petition under chapter 15 of title 11 of the United States Code (the “Chapter 15 Petition”) with the United States Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York (the “U.S. Bankruptcy Court”). The Chapter 15 Petition seeks, among other things, recognition in the United States of the Company’s provisional liquidation pending before the Grand Court of the Cayman Islands (the “Cayman Court”), Financial Services Division, Cause No. 157 of 2020 (ASCJ) (the “Cayman Proceeding”)1and related relief.</p><p><blockquote>北京，2021年2月5日(环球通讯社)--瑞星咖啡公司（“公司”）（场外交易代码：LKNCY）的联合临时清算人（“JPLs”）、Alvarez&amp;Marsal Cayman Islands Limited的Alexander Lawson和Alvarez&amp;Marsal Asia Limited的Wing Sze Tiffany Wong今天根据美国法典第11篇第15章向美国纽约南区破产法院（“美国破产法院”）提交了一份经过验证的请愿书（“第15章请愿书”）。第15章呈请寻求（其中包括）美国承认本公司在开曼群岛大法院（“开曼法院”）金融服务部2020年第157号案件（ASCJ）（“开曼程序”）1待决的临时清算及相关救济。</blockquote></p><p> The Company is negotiating with its stakeholders regarding the restructuring of the Company’s financial obligations, to strengthen the Company’s balance sheet and enable it to emerge from the Cayman Proceeding as a going concern, for the benefit of all stakeholders. The relief sought in the Chapter 15 Petition is an important component of the Company’s restructuring. This relief will promote centralized administration of the Company’s assets by permitting coordination between the Cayman Court and the U.S. Bankruptcy Court, to protect the interests of stakeholders while facilitating the Company’s restructuring.</p><p><blockquote>为了所有利益相关者的利益，公司正在与其利益相关者就公司财务义务的重组进行谈判，以加强公司的资产负债表，并使其能够作为持续经营企业摆脱开曼诉讼。第15章申请中寻求的救济是公司重组的重要组成部分。这项救济将通过允许开曼法院和美国破产法院之间的协调来促进公司资产的集中管理，以保护利益相关者的利益，同时促进公司的重组。</blockquote></p><p> All Company stores remain open for business, offering products with high quality, affordability and convenience to its customers in China. The filing of the Chapter 15 Petition is not expected to materially impact the Company’s day-to-day operations. The Company continues to meet its trade obligations in the ordinary course of business, including paying suppliers, vendors and employees.</p><p><blockquote>公司的所有商店仍然营业，为中国的客户提供高质量、实惠和便利的产品。根据美国破产法第15章提交请愿书预计不会对公司的日常运营产生重大影响。公司在日常业务过程中继续履行其贸易义务，包括向供应商、销售商和员工付款。</blockquote></p><p> ______</p><p><blockquote>______</blockquote></p><p> 1The Company previously disclosed the commencement of the Cayman Proceeding on July 15, 2020.</p><p><blockquote>1本公司早前披露开曼诉讼于2020年7月15日展开。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Safe Harbor Statement</b></p><p><blockquote><b>安全港声明</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> This announcement contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. These forward-looking statements are made under the “safe harbor” provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements can be identified by terminology such as “will,” “expects,” “anticipates,” “future,” “intends,” “plans,” “believes,” “estimates,” “potential,” “continue,” “ongoing,” “targets,” “guidance” and similar statements. The Company may also make written or oral forward-looking statements in its periodic reports to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”), in its annual report to shareholders, in press releases and other written materials and in oral statements made by its officers, directors or employees to third parties, including Joint Provisional Liquidators. Any statements that are not historical facts, including statements about the Company’s beliefs and expectations, are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement, including but not limited to the following: the expense, timing and outcome of existing or future legal and governmental proceedings, investigations in connection with the Company; the outcome and effect of the ongoing restructuring of the Company’s financial obligations; the Company’s growth strategies; its future business development, results of operations and financial condition; the effect of the non-reliance identified in, and the resultant restatement of, certain of the Company’s previously issued financial results; the timing of the completion or outcome of the audit of the Company’s financial statements; the effectiveness of its internal control; its ability to retain and attract its customers; its ability to maintain and enhance the recognition and reputation of its brand; its ability to maintain and improve quality control policies and measures; its ability to establish and maintain relationships with its suppliers and business partners; trends and competition in China’s coffee industry or China’s food and beverage sector in general; changes in its revenues and certain cost or expense items; the expected growth of China’s coffee industry or China’s food and beverage sector in general; PRC governmental policies and regulations relating to the Company’s industry; the potential effects of COVID-19; and general economic and business conditions globally and in China and assumptions underlying or related to any of the foregoing. Further information regarding these and other risks, uncertainties or factors is included in the Company’s filings with the SEC. All information provided in this press release and in the attachments is as of the date of this press release, and the Company undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement, except as required under applicable law.</p><p><blockquote>本公告包含经修订的1934年证券交易法第21E节含义内的前瞻性陈述。这些前瞻性陈述是根据1995年美国私人证券诉讼改革法案的“安全港”条款做出的。这些陈述可以通过术语来识别，例如“将”、“期望”、“预期”、“未来”、“打算”、“计划”、“相信”、“估计”、“潜力”、“继续”、“正在进行”、“目标”、“指导”和类似的陈述。公司还可能在向美国证券交易委员会（“SEC”）提交的定期报告、向股东提交的年度报告、新闻稿和其他书面材料以及口头声明中做出书面或口头前瞻性陈述。其管理人员、董事或员工向第三方（包括联合临时清算人）。任何非历史事实的陈述，包括有关公司信念和期望的陈述，都是前瞻性陈述。前瞻性陈述涉及固有的风险和不确定性。许多因素可能导致实际结果与任何前瞻性陈述中包含的结果存在重大差异，包括但不限于以下内容：与公司相关的现有或未来法律和政府诉讼、调查的费用、时间和结果；公司财务义务正在进行的重组的结果和影响；公司的增长战略；其未来业务发展、经营业绩及财务状况；公司之前发布的某些财务业绩中识别的非依赖以及由此导致的重述的影响；公司财务报表审计的完成时间或结果；内部控制的有效性；其留住和吸引客户的能力；其维持及提升其品牌知名度及声誉的能力；其维持和改进质量控制政策和措施的能力；其与供应商和业务合作伙伴建立和维护关系的能力；中国咖啡行业或中国食品及饮料行业的趋势及竞争；其收入和某些成本或费用项目的变化；中国咖啡行业或中国食品及饮料行业整体的预期增长；与本公司所处行业有关的中国政府政策及法规；新冠肺炎的潜在影响以及全球和中国的总体经济和商业状况以及与上述任何内容相关或相关的假设。有关这些和其他风险、不确定性或因素的更多信息包含在公司向SEC提交的文件中。本新闻稿和附件中提供的所有信息均截至本新闻稿发布之日，公司不承担更新任何前瞻性声明的义务，除非适用法律要求。</blockquote></p><p> <b>About Luckin Coffee Inc.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关于瑞星咖啡公司。</b></blockquote></p><p> Luckin Coffee Inc.&nbsp;(OTC:LKNCY) has pioneered a technology-driven retail network to provide coffee and other products of high quality, high affordability, and high convenience to customers. Empowered by big data analytics, AI, and proprietary technologies, the Company pursues its mission to be part of everyone’s everyday life, starting with coffee. The Company was founded in 2017 and is based in&nbsp;China. </p><p><blockquote>瑞星咖啡公司（场外交易代码：LKNCY）开创了一个技术驱动的零售网络，为顾客提供高品质、高性价比和高便利性的咖啡和其他产品。在大数据分析、人工智能和专有技术的支持下，该公司追求成为每个人日常生活一部分的使命，从咖啡开始。该公司成立于2017年，总部位于中国。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"http://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/02/05/2170477/0/en/Luckin-Coffee-s-Restructuring-Efforts-Move-Forward-with-Commencement-of-its-Chapter-15-Case-in-the-United-States.html\">globenewswire</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d12f820102df1859c1d25e4011ee104","relate_stocks":{"LKNCY":"瑞幸咖啡"},"source_url":"http://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/02/05/2170477/0/en/Luckin-Coffee-s-Restructuring-Efforts-Move-Forward-with-Commencement-of-its-Chapter-15-Case-in-the-United-States.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142907763","content_text":"Coordination between the Cayman Court and the U.S. Bankruptcy Court to Protect the Interests of Stakeholders and Facilitate LuckinCoffee’s Restructuring of its Financial Obligations\nAll Company Stores Remain Open and Serving Customers in China; No Material Impact on Daily Operations Expected\nCompany Continues to Meet Trade Obligations in the Ordinary Course of Business, Including Paying Suppliers, Vendors and Employees\nBEIJING, Feb. 05, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The Joint Provisional Liquidators (the “JPLs”) of Luckin Coffee Inc. (the “Company”) (OTC:LKNCY), Alexander Lawson of Alvarez & Marsal Cayman Islands Limited and Wing Sze Tiffany Wong of Alvarez & Marsal Asia Limited, today filed a verified petition under chapter 15 of title 11 of the United States Code (the “Chapter 15 Petition”) with the United States Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York (the “U.S. Bankruptcy Court”). The Chapter 15 Petition seeks, among other things, recognition in the United States of the Company’s provisional liquidation pending before the Grand Court of the Cayman Islands (the “Cayman Court”), Financial Services Division, Cause No. 157 of 2020 (ASCJ) (the “Cayman Proceeding”)1and related relief.\nThe Company is negotiating with its stakeholders regarding the restructuring of the Company’s financial obligations, to strengthen the Company’s balance sheet and enable it to emerge from the Cayman Proceeding as a going concern, for the benefit of all stakeholders. The relief sought in the Chapter 15 Petition is an important component of the Company’s restructuring. This relief will promote centralized administration of the Company’s assets by permitting coordination between the Cayman Court and the U.S. Bankruptcy Court, to protect the interests of stakeholders while facilitating the Company’s restructuring.\nAll Company stores remain open for business, offering products with high quality, affordability and convenience to its customers in China. The filing of the Chapter 15 Petition is not expected to materially impact the Company’s day-to-day operations. The Company continues to meet its trade obligations in the ordinary course of business, including paying suppliers, vendors and employees.\n______\n1The Company previously disclosed the commencement of the Cayman Proceeding on July 15, 2020.\nSafe Harbor Statement\nThis announcement contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. These forward-looking statements are made under the “safe harbor” provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements can be identified by terminology such as “will,” “expects,” “anticipates,” “future,” “intends,” “plans,” “believes,” “estimates,” “potential,” “continue,” “ongoing,” “targets,” “guidance” and similar statements. The Company may also make written or oral forward-looking statements in its periodic reports to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”), in its annual report to shareholders, in press releases and other written materials and in oral statements made by its officers, directors or employees to third parties, including Joint Provisional Liquidators. Any statements that are not historical facts, including statements about the Company’s beliefs and expectations, are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement, including but not limited to the following: the expense, timing and outcome of existing or future legal and governmental proceedings, investigations in connection with the Company; the outcome and effect of the ongoing restructuring of the Company’s financial obligations; the Company’s growth strategies; its future business development, results of operations and financial condition; the effect of the non-reliance identified in, and the resultant restatement of, certain of the Company’s previously issued financial results; the timing of the completion or outcome of the audit of the Company’s financial statements; the effectiveness of its internal control; its ability to retain and attract its customers; its ability to maintain and enhance the recognition and reputation of its brand; its ability to maintain and improve quality control policies and measures; its ability to establish and maintain relationships with its suppliers and business partners; trends and competition in China’s coffee industry or China’s food and beverage sector in general; changes in its revenues and certain cost or expense items; the expected growth of China’s coffee industry or China’s food and beverage sector in general; PRC governmental policies and regulations relating to the Company’s industry; the potential effects of COVID-19; and general economic and business conditions globally and in China and assumptions underlying or related to any of the foregoing. Further information regarding these and other risks, uncertainties or factors is included in the Company’s filings with the SEC. All information provided in this press release and in the attachments is as of the date of this press release, and the Company undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement, except as required under applicable law.\nAbout Luckin Coffee Inc.\nLuckin Coffee Inc. (OTC:LKNCY) has pioneered a technology-driven retail network to provide coffee and other products of high quality, high affordability, and high convenience to customers. Empowered by big data analytics, AI, and proprietary technologies, the Company pursues its mission to be part of everyone’s everyday life, starting with coffee. The Company was founded in 2017 and is based in China.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LKNCY":0.9,"LK":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":355,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":317588009,"gmtCreate":1612455291201,"gmtModify":1703762244891,"author":{"id":"3557291191459072","authorId":"3557291191459072","name":"Slmlmlmlmlml","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f06a8d77f57be0f0ccb485e2f711bdd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557291191459072","authorIdStr":"3557291191459072"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/317588009","repostId":"1162866028","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1015,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":362358644,"gmtCreate":1614600748188,"gmtModify":1703478678733,"author":{"id":"3557291191459072","authorId":"3557291191459072","name":"Slmlmlmlmlml","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f06a8d77f57be0f0ccb485e2f711bdd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557291191459072","authorIdStr":"3557291191459072"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/362358644","repostId":"1105841550","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105841550","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614600153,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1105841550?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-01 20:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"'Build Me An Ark': The Tsunami Of Risk Of Tesla-Bitcoin-Cathie Wood Is Coming<blockquote>“为我建造一艘方舟”：特斯拉-比特币-凯西·伍德的风险海啸即将到来</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105841550","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Summary:\n\n In today's equity update we are following up on our\n analysis of the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark ri","content":"<p><u><b>Summary:</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>摘要：</b></u></blockquote></p><p>   In today's equity update we are following up on our  <b>analysis of the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk cluster</b>showing an updated positions analysis, cross-correlations in the flagship Ark Innovation ETF, and an drawdown analysis. Yesterday, was another bad session for this risk cluster and Ark Invest had a day with outflows across all their ETFs highlighting that risk sentiment has changed. With the founder's bold move to increase the position in Tesla during the week the risk has gone up that this risk cluster could turn into an ugly forced selling dynamic causing pain in not only Tesla, Bitcoin, and Ark funds, but also US biotechnology stocks where Ark Invest is a major holder with high ownership in selected names.  A little over a month ago we first flagged the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk cluster as something to take note off as short-term correlation between Tesla and Bitcoin was shooting up. A survey from Charles Schwab also confirmed our suspicion that there is a big overlap as these two instruments are among the top five holdings by millennials. Our analysis quickly led us to Ark Invest with its famous Ark Innovation ETF which had a big position in Tesla and its charismatic founder Cathie Wood is a big believer in the so-called disruptive innovation culture of Silicon Valley. This class of people believe firmly in technology as mainly good for society in all its aspects and that&nbsp;Bitcoin is a protection against future wealth confiscation&nbsp;which is most likely inevitable due to historically high wealth inequality.</p><p><blockquote>在今天的股票更新中，我们将跟进我们的<b>特斯拉-比特币-方舟风险集群分析</b>显示了最新的头寸分析、旗舰Ark Innovation ETF的互相关性以及回撤分析。昨天是该风险集群的又一个糟糕交易日，Ark Invest的所有ETF都出现资金外流，突显出风险情绪已经发生变化。随着创始人本周大胆增持特斯拉头寸，这一风险集群可能演变成丑陋的强制抛售动态的风险已经上升，不仅会给特斯拉、比特币和Ark基金带来痛苦，也会给美国生物科技股带来痛苦。Ark Invest是主要持有人，在选定的名称中拥有大量所有权。一个多月前，随着特斯拉和比特币之间的短期相关性不断上升，我们首次将特斯拉-比特币-方舟风险集群标记为值得注意的问题。嘉信理财的一项调查也证实了我们的怀疑，即存在很大重叠，因为这两种工具是千禧一代持有的前五大工具之一。我们的分析很快让我们找到了Ark Invest及其著名的Ark Innovation ETF，该ETF在特斯拉拥有大量头寸，其魅力四射的创始人Cathie Wood是硅谷所谓颠覆性创新文化的忠实信徒。这一类人坚信技术在各个方面对社会都有好处，比特币是防止未来财富被没收的一种保护，由于历史上高度的财富不平等，这很可能是不可避免的。</blockquote></p><p> This disruptive innovation culture is powerful. It is presented by some of the wealthiest people of this planet. Endless presentation about innovation and institutions like the Singularity University promote these views. Behind Bitcoin you find a huge online marketing machine sucking ordinary people into the game. Recently wealthy people such as Elon Musk has openly supported Bitcoin, first in writing and later in action adding $1.5bn to Tesla’s balance sheet and thereby significantly increasing its earnings volatility. The triangle of Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark and their respective momentum has reinforced each other creating a positive feedback loop luring more investors into these instruments. As we have seen this week the ‘tower of risk’ is beginning to show cracks.</p><p><blockquote>这种颠覆性的创新文化是强大的。它是由这个星球上一些最富有的人提出的。关于创新和奇点大学等机构的无休止的介绍促进了这些观点。在比特币背后，你会发现一个巨大的在线营销机器，将普通人吸进游戏中。最近，Elon Musk等富人公开支持比特币，先是以书面形式，后来又采取行动，为特斯拉的资产负债表增加了15亿美元，从而显着增加了其盈利波动性。特斯拉-比特币-方舟三角及其各自的势头相互加强，创造了一个正反馈循环，吸引更多投资者进入这些工具。正如我们本周所看到的，“风险之塔”开始出现裂缝。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ark position update and Cathie Wood’s bold move and the risk to biotechnology</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Ark立场更新和Cathie Wood的大胆举措以及生物技术面临的风险</b></blockquote></p><p> This week Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark all came under pressure from negative voices in governments over Bitcoin and beginning noise over real competition for Tesla in the coming years. The risk cluster was clearly moving together, and correlations started rising. On Tuesday, volatility picked up across the board and at one point Cathie Wood felt it was necessary to go public supporting her funds and said that&nbsp;she had increased their position in Tesla&nbsp;using big numbers in the future to justify increasing the risk. This is a bold move, but it increases the risk considerably. When you are at risk of seeing sizeable outflows, you should start reducing the most illiquid positions first while you can control the situation. Because if you are forced to do it by redemptions the game changes dramatically.</p><p><blockquote>本周，特斯拉-比特币-方舟都面临着来自政府对比特币的负面声音的压力，以及未来几年特斯拉真正竞争的噪音。风险集群显然在一起移动，相关性开始上升。周二，波动性全面加剧，凯西·伍德(Cathie Wood)一度认为有必要上市支持她的基金，并表示她已经增加了在特斯拉的头寸，并在未来利用大量数据来证明增加风险的合理性。这是一个大胆的举动，但它大大增加了风险。当你面临大量资金外流的风险时，你应该在你能控制局面的时候，首先开始减少流动性最差的头寸。因为如果你被迫这样做，游戏就会发生巨大的变化。</blockquote></p><p> The tables below show updated Ark Invest positions as of yesterday’s close. There are still 26 stocks where Ark Invest holds more than 10% of the outstanding shares. This could become a serious problem if Ark Invest is suddenly caught in a negative feedback loop together with Tesla and Bitcoin. But also note how US biotechnology stocks are overrepresented in this list of stocks with high ownership in percentage of outstanding shares. If Ark Invest suddenly experience across the board outflows, like it did yesterday, then they can suddenly be the forced seller in US biotechnology stocks where they are the whale. This could cascade into the overall US biotechnology segment although the group is diverse.</p><p><blockquote>下表显示了截至昨天收盘时更新的Ark Invest头寸。Ark Invest持有流通股比例超过10%的个股仍有26只。如果Ark Invest突然与特斯拉和比特币一起陷入负反馈循环，这可能会成为一个严重的问题。但也请注意，美国生物技术股票在这份占流通股比例较高的股票列表中所占比例过高。如果Ark Invest突然经历全面资金外流，就像昨天一样，那么他们可能会突然成为美国生物科技股的被迫卖家，而他们是鲸鱼。尽管该集团是多元化的，但这可能会波及整个美国生物技术领域。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Stocks held by Ark Invest funds with combined ownership above 10% of outstanding shares</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Ark Invest基金持有的合计持股比例超过流通股10%的股票</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97684f80243d32efc06f3379d51d4fb\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"353\">Source: Ark Invest, Bloomberg, and Saxo Group</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：Ark Invest、彭博社和盛宝集团</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The table below shows the largest positions across all funds. Here Tesla has now jumped to 7% of AUM and the first five positions now account for 21.6% of AUM. The five biggest stocks are Tesla, Teladoc Health, Square, Roku, and Baidu. Square just recently reported disappointing Q4 earnings and announced the purchase of $170mn of Bitcoin increasing the risk and feedback loop further in this risk cluster. In the Ark Innovation ETF itself, Tesla is now 10.2% of assets and together with Roku (6%) and Square (5.4%) these three stocks represent 21.6% of assets. If you look at the 10 largest positions in the Ark Innovation ETF then the red thread is that they all come with very high equity valuations and thus low implied equity risk premiums. They are all also mostly equity financed, except for Tesla, which means that the WACC, cost of capital, predominantly come from the cost of equity. With low implied equity risk premiums, the risk-free rate dominates much more than for a company such as say Microsoft or Apple. This means that the rising interest rates could suddenly cause a huge shift in equity valuations. Not because the future is different but because the cost of capital has changed.</p><p><blockquote>下表显示了所有基金的最大头寸。在这里，特斯拉现在已经跃升至资产管理规模的7%，前五个职位现在占资产管理规模的21.6%。最大的五只股票是特斯拉、Teladoc Health、Square、Roku和百度。Square最近刚刚公布了令人失望的第四季度收益，并宣布以1.7亿美元收购比特币，进一步增加了该风险集群的风险和反馈循环。在Ark Innovation ETF本身中，特斯拉目前占资产的10.2%，加上Roku(6%)和Square(5.4%)，这三只股票占资产的21.6%。如果你看看Ark Innovation ETF中最大的10个头寸，那么红线是它们都具有非常高的股票估值，因此隐含的股票风险溢价较低。除特斯拉外，它们也主要是股权融资，这意味着WACC（资本成本）主要来自股权成本。由于隐含股权风险溢价较低，无风险利率比微软或苹果等公司占据主导地位。这意味着利率上升可能会突然导致股票估值发生巨大变化。不是因为未来不同，而是因为资本成本发生了变化。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Top positions in terms of Ark Invest AUM across all funds</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Ark Invest所有基金的资产管理规模排名靠前</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e06fcb66d5a52e629b48c9cab492586\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"302\">Source: Ark Invest, Bloomberg, and Saxo Group</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：Ark Invest、彭博社和盛宝集团</blockquote></p><p> <u><b>Correlations on the rise and drawdown outlier</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>上涨和下跌异常值的相关性</b></u></blockquote></p><p> The best sign of risk going haywire is always fast rising cross-correlations whether it is on asset classes or single stocks. The chart below shows the 10-day moving cross-correlation in the Ark Innovation ETF since early 2020. It has recently moved to around 0.6 and while it is not a new record the direction is up and has been fast coming from only 0.2 from a few weeks ago. The next week will be critical for the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk cluster as negative feedback loops can be violent and very unpredictable in their outcome.</p><p><blockquote>风险失控的最佳迹象总是快速上升的交叉相关性，无论是资产类别还是单一股票。下图显示了Ark Innovation ETF自2020年初以来的10天移动互相关性。它最近已经移动到0.6左右，虽然这不是一个新的记录，但方向是上升的，并且已经从几周前的0.2快速上升。下周对于特斯拉-比特币-方舟风险集群来说至关重要，因为负反馈循环可能是暴力的，其结果非常不可预测。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab96aaafda10c2371b1d3a1a14c4a48a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"280\"><i>Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社和盛宝集团</i></blockquote></p><p> Another way of looking at risk is by plotting Ark Innovation ETF drawdowns against that of Nasdaq 100 since December 2015.<b>The ETF has typically experienced a drawdown that is 1.22 times larger than that of Nasdaq 100</b>. As of yesterday, the ratio stands at 2.44 and thus illustrates that something idiosyncratic is taking place at Ark Innovation ETF.</p><p><blockquote>看待风险的另一种方法是将Ark Innovation ETF的回撤与2015年12月以来纳斯达克100指数的回撤进行比较。<b>该ETF的跌幅通常是纳斯达克100指数的1.22倍</b>截至昨天，该比率为2.44，因此表明Ark Innovation ETF正在发生一些特殊的事情。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80db26e42e2910071718ff22a1ff3f2b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"308\"><b>If outflows continue today and Tesla comes under pressure again then this indicator could very well hit a new record in terms of being an outlier signaling a negative feedback loop on risk has started.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>如果今天资金外流继续，特斯拉再次面临压力，那么该指标很可能会创下新纪录，成为一个异常值，表明风险负反馈循环已经开始。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>'Build Me An Ark': The Tsunami Of Risk Of Tesla-Bitcoin-Cathie Wood Is Coming<blockquote>“为我建造一艘方舟”：特斯拉-比特币-凯西·伍德的风险海啸即将到来</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n'Build Me An Ark': The Tsunami Of Risk Of Tesla-Bitcoin-Cathie Wood Is Coming<blockquote>“为我建造一艘方舟”：特斯拉-比特币-凯西·伍德的风险海啸即将到来</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-01 20:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><u><b>Summary:</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>摘要：</b></u></blockquote></p><p>   In today's equity update we are following up on our  <b>analysis of the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk cluster</b>showing an updated positions analysis, cross-correlations in the flagship Ark Innovation ETF, and an drawdown analysis. Yesterday, was another bad session for this risk cluster and Ark Invest had a day with outflows across all their ETFs highlighting that risk sentiment has changed. With the founder's bold move to increase the position in Tesla during the week the risk has gone up that this risk cluster could turn into an ugly forced selling dynamic causing pain in not only Tesla, Bitcoin, and Ark funds, but also US biotechnology stocks where Ark Invest is a major holder with high ownership in selected names.  A little over a month ago we first flagged the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk cluster as something to take note off as short-term correlation between Tesla and Bitcoin was shooting up. A survey from Charles Schwab also confirmed our suspicion that there is a big overlap as these two instruments are among the top five holdings by millennials. Our analysis quickly led us to Ark Invest with its famous Ark Innovation ETF which had a big position in Tesla and its charismatic founder Cathie Wood is a big believer in the so-called disruptive innovation culture of Silicon Valley. This class of people believe firmly in technology as mainly good for society in all its aspects and that&nbsp;Bitcoin is a protection against future wealth confiscation&nbsp;which is most likely inevitable due to historically high wealth inequality.</p><p><blockquote>在今天的股票更新中，我们将跟进我们的<b>特斯拉-比特币-方舟风险集群分析</b>显示了最新的头寸分析、旗舰Ark Innovation ETF的互相关性以及回撤分析。昨天是该风险集群的又一个糟糕交易日，Ark Invest的所有ETF都出现资金外流，突显出风险情绪已经发生变化。随着创始人本周大胆增持特斯拉头寸，这一风险集群可能演变成丑陋的强制抛售动态的风险已经上升，不仅会给特斯拉、比特币和Ark基金带来痛苦，也会给美国生物科技股带来痛苦。Ark Invest是主要持有人，在选定的名称中拥有大量所有权。一个多月前，随着特斯拉和比特币之间的短期相关性不断上升，我们首次将特斯拉-比特币-方舟风险集群标记为值得注意的问题。嘉信理财的一项调查也证实了我们的怀疑，即存在很大重叠，因为这两种工具是千禧一代持有的前五大工具之一。我们的分析很快让我们找到了Ark Invest及其著名的Ark Innovation ETF，该ETF在特斯拉拥有大量头寸，其魅力四射的创始人Cathie Wood是硅谷所谓颠覆性创新文化的忠实信徒。这一类人坚信技术在各个方面对社会都有好处，比特币是防止未来财富被没收的一种保护，由于历史上高度的财富不平等，这很可能是不可避免的。</blockquote></p><p> This disruptive innovation culture is powerful. It is presented by some of the wealthiest people of this planet. Endless presentation about innovation and institutions like the Singularity University promote these views. Behind Bitcoin you find a huge online marketing machine sucking ordinary people into the game. Recently wealthy people such as Elon Musk has openly supported Bitcoin, first in writing and later in action adding $1.5bn to Tesla’s balance sheet and thereby significantly increasing its earnings volatility. The triangle of Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark and their respective momentum has reinforced each other creating a positive feedback loop luring more investors into these instruments. As we have seen this week the ‘tower of risk’ is beginning to show cracks.</p><p><blockquote>这种颠覆性的创新文化是强大的。它是由这个星球上一些最富有的人提出的。关于创新和奇点大学等机构的无休止的介绍促进了这些观点。在比特币背后，你会发现一个巨大的在线营销机器，将普通人吸进游戏中。最近，Elon Musk等富人公开支持比特币，先是以书面形式，后来又采取行动，为特斯拉的资产负债表增加了15亿美元，从而显着增加了其盈利波动性。特斯拉-比特币-方舟三角及其各自的势头相互加强，创造了一个正反馈循环，吸引更多投资者进入这些工具。正如我们本周所看到的，“风险之塔”开始出现裂缝。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ark position update and Cathie Wood’s bold move and the risk to biotechnology</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Ark立场更新和Cathie Wood的大胆举措以及生物技术面临的风险</b></blockquote></p><p> This week Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark all came under pressure from negative voices in governments over Bitcoin and beginning noise over real competition for Tesla in the coming years. The risk cluster was clearly moving together, and correlations started rising. On Tuesday, volatility picked up across the board and at one point Cathie Wood felt it was necessary to go public supporting her funds and said that&nbsp;she had increased their position in Tesla&nbsp;using big numbers in the future to justify increasing the risk. This is a bold move, but it increases the risk considerably. When you are at risk of seeing sizeable outflows, you should start reducing the most illiquid positions first while you can control the situation. Because if you are forced to do it by redemptions the game changes dramatically.</p><p><blockquote>本周，特斯拉-比特币-方舟都面临着来自政府对比特币的负面声音的压力，以及未来几年特斯拉真正竞争的噪音。风险集群显然在一起移动，相关性开始上升。周二，波动性全面加剧，凯西·伍德(Cathie Wood)一度认为有必要上市支持她的基金，并表示她已经增加了在特斯拉的头寸，并在未来利用大量数据来证明增加风险的合理性。这是一个大胆的举动，但它大大增加了风险。当你面临大量资金外流的风险时，你应该在你能控制局面的时候，首先开始减少流动性最差的头寸。因为如果你被迫这样做，游戏就会发生巨大的变化。</blockquote></p><p> The tables below show updated Ark Invest positions as of yesterday’s close. There are still 26 stocks where Ark Invest holds more than 10% of the outstanding shares. This could become a serious problem if Ark Invest is suddenly caught in a negative feedback loop together with Tesla and Bitcoin. But also note how US biotechnology stocks are overrepresented in this list of stocks with high ownership in percentage of outstanding shares. If Ark Invest suddenly experience across the board outflows, like it did yesterday, then they can suddenly be the forced seller in US biotechnology stocks where they are the whale. This could cascade into the overall US biotechnology segment although the group is diverse.</p><p><blockquote>下表显示了截至昨天收盘时更新的Ark Invest头寸。Ark Invest持有流通股比例超过10%的个股仍有26只。如果Ark Invest突然与特斯拉和比特币一起陷入负反馈循环，这可能会成为一个严重的问题。但也请注意，美国生物技术股票在这份占流通股比例较高的股票列表中所占比例过高。如果Ark Invest突然经历全面资金外流，就像昨天一样，那么他们可能会突然成为美国生物科技股的被迫卖家，而他们是鲸鱼。尽管该集团是多元化的，但这可能会波及整个美国生物技术领域。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Stocks held by Ark Invest funds with combined ownership above 10% of outstanding shares</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Ark Invest基金持有的合计持股比例超过流通股10%的股票</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97684f80243d32efc06f3379d51d4fb\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"353\">Source: Ark Invest, Bloomberg, and Saxo Group</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：Ark Invest、彭博社和盛宝集团</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The table below shows the largest positions across all funds. Here Tesla has now jumped to 7% of AUM and the first five positions now account for 21.6% of AUM. The five biggest stocks are Tesla, Teladoc Health, Square, Roku, and Baidu. Square just recently reported disappointing Q4 earnings and announced the purchase of $170mn of Bitcoin increasing the risk and feedback loop further in this risk cluster. In the Ark Innovation ETF itself, Tesla is now 10.2% of assets and together with Roku (6%) and Square (5.4%) these three stocks represent 21.6% of assets. If you look at the 10 largest positions in the Ark Innovation ETF then the red thread is that they all come with very high equity valuations and thus low implied equity risk premiums. They are all also mostly equity financed, except for Tesla, which means that the WACC, cost of capital, predominantly come from the cost of equity. With low implied equity risk premiums, the risk-free rate dominates much more than for a company such as say Microsoft or Apple. This means that the rising interest rates could suddenly cause a huge shift in equity valuations. Not because the future is different but because the cost of capital has changed.</p><p><blockquote>下表显示了所有基金的最大头寸。在这里，特斯拉现在已经跃升至资产管理规模的7%，前五个职位现在占资产管理规模的21.6%。最大的五只股票是特斯拉、Teladoc Health、Square、Roku和百度。Square最近刚刚公布了令人失望的第四季度收益，并宣布以1.7亿美元收购比特币，进一步增加了该风险集群的风险和反馈循环。在Ark Innovation ETF本身中，特斯拉目前占资产的10.2%，加上Roku(6%)和Square(5.4%)，这三只股票占资产的21.6%。如果你看看Ark Innovation ETF中最大的10个头寸，那么红线是它们都具有非常高的股票估值，因此隐含的股票风险溢价较低。除特斯拉外，它们也主要是股权融资，这意味着WACC（资本成本）主要来自股权成本。由于隐含股权风险溢价较低，无风险利率比微软或苹果等公司占据主导地位。这意味着利率上升可能会突然导致股票估值发生巨大变化。不是因为未来不同，而是因为资本成本发生了变化。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Top positions in terms of Ark Invest AUM across all funds</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Ark Invest所有基金的资产管理规模排名靠前</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e06fcb66d5a52e629b48c9cab492586\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"302\">Source: Ark Invest, Bloomberg, and Saxo Group</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：Ark Invest、彭博社和盛宝集团</blockquote></p><p> <u><b>Correlations on the rise and drawdown outlier</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>上涨和下跌异常值的相关性</b></u></blockquote></p><p> The best sign of risk going haywire is always fast rising cross-correlations whether it is on asset classes or single stocks. The chart below shows the 10-day moving cross-correlation in the Ark Innovation ETF since early 2020. It has recently moved to around 0.6 and while it is not a new record the direction is up and has been fast coming from only 0.2 from a few weeks ago. The next week will be critical for the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk cluster as negative feedback loops can be violent and very unpredictable in their outcome.</p><p><blockquote>风险失控的最佳迹象总是快速上升的交叉相关性，无论是资产类别还是单一股票。下图显示了Ark Innovation ETF自2020年初以来的10天移动互相关性。它最近已经移动到0.6左右，虽然这不是一个新的记录，但方向是上升的，并且已经从几周前的0.2快速上升。下周对于特斯拉-比特币-方舟风险集群来说至关重要，因为负反馈循环可能是暴力的，其结果非常不可预测。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab96aaafda10c2371b1d3a1a14c4a48a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"280\"><i>Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社和盛宝集团</i></blockquote></p><p> Another way of looking at risk is by plotting Ark Innovation ETF drawdowns against that of Nasdaq 100 since December 2015.<b>The ETF has typically experienced a drawdown that is 1.22 times larger than that of Nasdaq 100</b>. As of yesterday, the ratio stands at 2.44 and thus illustrates that something idiosyncratic is taking place at Ark Innovation ETF.</p><p><blockquote>看待风险的另一种方法是将Ark Innovation ETF的回撤与2015年12月以来纳斯达克100指数的回撤进行比较。<b>该ETF的跌幅通常是纳斯达克100指数的1.22倍</b>截至昨天，该比率为2.44，因此表明Ark Innovation ETF正在发生一些特殊的事情。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80db26e42e2910071718ff22a1ff3f2b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"308\"><b>If outflows continue today and Tesla comes under pressure again then this indicator could very well hit a new record in terms of being an outlier signaling a negative feedback loop on risk has started.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>如果今天资金外流继续，特斯拉再次面临压力，那么该指标很可能会创下新纪录，成为一个异常值，表明风险负反馈循环已经开始。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/build-me-ark-tsunami-risk-tesla-bitcoin-cathie-wood-coming\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","ARKR":"Ark Restaurants Corp","ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF","GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale","ARKW":"ARK Next Generation Internet ETF","ARKF":"ARK Fintech Innovation ETF","ARKQ":"ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF","ARKG":"ARK Genomic Revolution ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/build-me-ark-tsunami-risk-tesla-bitcoin-cathie-wood-coming","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105841550","content_text":"Summary:\n\n In today's equity update we are following up on our\n analysis of the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk clustershowing an updated positions analysis, cross-correlations in the flagship Ark Innovation ETF, and an drawdown analysis. Yesterday, was another bad session for this risk cluster and Ark Invest had a day with outflows across all their ETFs highlighting that risk sentiment has changed. With the founder's bold move to increase the position in Tesla during the week the risk has gone up that this risk cluster could turn into an ugly forced selling dynamic causing pain in not only Tesla, Bitcoin, and Ark funds, but also US biotechnology stocks where Ark Invest is a major holder with high ownership in selected names.\n\nA little over a month ago we first flagged the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk cluster as something to take note off as short-term correlation between Tesla and Bitcoin was shooting up. A survey from Charles Schwab also confirmed our suspicion that there is a big overlap as these two instruments are among the top five holdings by millennials. Our analysis quickly led us to Ark Invest with its famous Ark Innovation ETF which had a big position in Tesla and its charismatic founder Cathie Wood is a big believer in the so-called disruptive innovation culture of Silicon Valley. This class of people believe firmly in technology as mainly good for society in all its aspects and that Bitcoin is a protection against future wealth confiscation which is most likely inevitable due to historically high wealth inequality.\nThis disruptive innovation culture is powerful. It is presented by some of the wealthiest people of this planet. Endless presentation about innovation and institutions like the Singularity University promote these views. Behind Bitcoin you find a huge online marketing machine sucking ordinary people into the game. Recently wealthy people such as Elon Musk has openly supported Bitcoin, first in writing and later in action adding $1.5bn to Tesla’s balance sheet and thereby significantly increasing its earnings volatility. The triangle of Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark and their respective momentum has reinforced each other creating a positive feedback loop luring more investors into these instruments. As we have seen this week the ‘tower of risk’ is beginning to show cracks.\nArk position update and Cathie Wood’s bold move and the risk to biotechnology\nThis week Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark all came under pressure from negative voices in governments over Bitcoin and beginning noise over real competition for Tesla in the coming years. The risk cluster was clearly moving together, and correlations started rising. On Tuesday, volatility picked up across the board and at one point Cathie Wood felt it was necessary to go public supporting her funds and said that she had increased their position in Tesla using big numbers in the future to justify increasing the risk. This is a bold move, but it increases the risk considerably. When you are at risk of seeing sizeable outflows, you should start reducing the most illiquid positions first while you can control the situation. Because if you are forced to do it by redemptions the game changes dramatically.\nThe tables below show updated Ark Invest positions as of yesterday’s close. There are still 26 stocks where Ark Invest holds more than 10% of the outstanding shares. This could become a serious problem if Ark Invest is suddenly caught in a negative feedback loop together with Tesla and Bitcoin. But also note how US biotechnology stocks are overrepresented in this list of stocks with high ownership in percentage of outstanding shares. If Ark Invest suddenly experience across the board outflows, like it did yesterday, then they can suddenly be the forced seller in US biotechnology stocks where they are the whale. This could cascade into the overall US biotechnology segment although the group is diverse.\nStocks held by Ark Invest funds with combined ownership above 10% of outstanding shares\nSource: Ark Invest, Bloomberg, and Saxo Group\nThe table below shows the largest positions across all funds. Here Tesla has now jumped to 7% of AUM and the first five positions now account for 21.6% of AUM. The five biggest stocks are Tesla, Teladoc Health, Square, Roku, and Baidu. Square just recently reported disappointing Q4 earnings and announced the purchase of $170mn of Bitcoin increasing the risk and feedback loop further in this risk cluster. In the Ark Innovation ETF itself, Tesla is now 10.2% of assets and together with Roku (6%) and Square (5.4%) these three stocks represent 21.6% of assets. If you look at the 10 largest positions in the Ark Innovation ETF then the red thread is that they all come with very high equity valuations and thus low implied equity risk premiums. They are all also mostly equity financed, except for Tesla, which means that the WACC, cost of capital, predominantly come from the cost of equity. With low implied equity risk premiums, the risk-free rate dominates much more than for a company such as say Microsoft or Apple. This means that the rising interest rates could suddenly cause a huge shift in equity valuations. Not because the future is different but because the cost of capital has changed.\nTop positions in terms of Ark Invest AUM across all funds\nSource: Ark Invest, Bloomberg, and Saxo Group\nCorrelations on the rise and drawdown outlier\nThe best sign of risk going haywire is always fast rising cross-correlations whether it is on asset classes or single stocks. The chart below shows the 10-day moving cross-correlation in the Ark Innovation ETF since early 2020. It has recently moved to around 0.6 and while it is not a new record the direction is up and has been fast coming from only 0.2 from a few weeks ago. The next week will be critical for the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk cluster as negative feedback loops can be violent and very unpredictable in their outcome.\nSource: Bloomberg and Saxo Group\nAnother way of looking at risk is by plotting Ark Innovation ETF drawdowns against that of Nasdaq 100 since December 2015.The ETF has typically experienced a drawdown that is 1.22 times larger than that of Nasdaq 100. As of yesterday, the ratio stands at 2.44 and thus illustrates that something idiosyncratic is taking place at Ark Innovation ETF.\nIf outflows continue today and Tesla comes under pressure again then this indicator could very well hit a new record in terms of being an outlier signaling a negative feedback loop on risk has started.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ARKF":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"ARKK":0.9,"ARKG":0.9,"ARKR":0.9,"ARKQ":0.9,"ARKW":0.9,"GBTC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1472,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363932206,"gmtCreate":1614090477905,"gmtModify":1634551218474,"author":{"id":"3557291191459072","authorId":"3557291191459072","name":"Slmlmlmlmlml","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f06a8d77f57be0f0ccb485e2f711bdd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557291191459072","authorIdStr":"3557291191459072"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gone&nbsp;","listText":"Gone&nbsp;","text":"Gone","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363932206","repostId":"1178144401","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2277,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":369924339,"gmtCreate":1613999528021,"gmtModify":1634551597205,"author":{"id":"3557291191459072","authorId":"3557291191459072","name":"Slmlmlmlmlml","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f06a8d77f57be0f0ccb485e2f711bdd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557291191459072","authorIdStr":"3557291191459072"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Geez","listText":"Geez","text":"Geez","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/369924339","repostId":"1100241886","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2536,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":360833455,"gmtCreate":1613881380277,"gmtModify":1634551975101,"author":{"id":"3557291191459072","authorId":"3557291191459072","name":"Slmlmlmlmlml","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f06a8d77f57be0f0ccb485e2f711bdd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557291191459072","authorIdStr":"3557291191459072"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good job&nbsp;","listText":"Good job&nbsp;","text":"Good job","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/360833455","repostId":"2113222826","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1737,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":360366623,"gmtCreate":1613834623662,"gmtModify":1634552073963,"author":{"id":"3557291191459072","authorId":"3557291191459072","name":"Slmlmlmlmlml","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f06a8d77f57be0f0ccb485e2f711bdd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557291191459072","authorIdStr":"3557291191459072"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nicr","listText":"Nicr","text":"Nicr","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/360366623","repostId":"1143100356","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2684,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382468668,"gmtCreate":1613476570654,"gmtModify":1634553517178,"author":{"id":"3557291191459072","authorId":"3557291191459072","name":"Slmlmlmlmlml","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f06a8d77f57be0f0ccb485e2f711bdd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557291191459072","authorIdStr":"3557291191459072"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382468668","repostId":"1174892130","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174892130","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613469616,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1174892130?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-16 18:00","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"STI closes marginally higher by 0.13%, with all eyes on Budget 2021<blockquote>STI收盘小幅上涨0.13%，所有人都关注2021年预算</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174892130","media":"businesstimes","summary":"SINGAPORE shares extended marginal gains for the second straight day as all eyes were on the nation'","content":"<p><div> SINGAPORE shares extended marginal gains for the second straight day as all eyes were on the nation's Budget 2021, which, among other things, extended the much-needed wage support to the hardest-hit ...</p><p><blockquote><div>新加坡股市连续第二天小幅上涨，因为所有人的目光都集中在该国的2021年预算上，除其他外，该预算将急需的工资支持扩大到了受灾最严重的国家...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"http://businesstimes.com.sg/stocks/sti-closes-marginally-higher-by-013-with-all-eyes-on-budget-2021\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"http://businesstimes.com.sg/stocks/sti-closes-marginally-higher-by-013-with-all-eyes-on-budget-2021\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1607307803821","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>STI closes marginally higher by 0.13%, with all eyes on Budget 2021<blockquote>STI收盘小幅上涨0.13%，所有人都关注2021年预算</blockquote></title>\n<style 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#7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSTI closes marginally higher by 0.13%, with all eyes on Budget 2021<blockquote>STI收盘小幅上涨0.13%，所有人都关注2021年预算</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">businesstimes</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-16 18:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> SINGAPORE shares extended marginal gains for the second straight day as all eyes were on the nation's Budget 2021, which, among other things, extended the much-needed wage support to the hardest-hit ...</p><p><blockquote><div>新加坡股市连续第二天小幅上涨，因为所有人的目光都集中在该国的2021年预算上，除其他外，该预算将急需的工资支持扩大到了受灾最严重的国家...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"http://businesstimes.com.sg/stocks/sti-closes-marginally-higher-by-013-with-all-eyes-on-budget-2021\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"http://businesstimes.com.sg/stocks/sti-closes-marginally-higher-by-013-with-all-eyes-on-budget-2021\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"http://businesstimes.com.sg/stocks/sti-closes-marginally-higher-by-013-with-all-eyes-on-budget-2021\">businesstimes</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"STI.SI":"富时新加坡海峡指数"},"source_url":"http://businesstimes.com.sg/stocks/sti-closes-marginally-higher-by-013-with-all-eyes-on-budget-2021","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174892130","content_text":"SINGAPORE shares extended marginal gains for the second straight day as all eyes were on the nation's Budget 2021, which, among other things, extended the much-needed wage support to the hardest-hit sectors in the pandemic, and provided households more spending power.\nThe key Straits Times Index finished at 2,935.34 after advancing 3.82 points or 0.13 per cent. Key regional gauges in Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea and Australia also chalked up gains; Malaysia bucked the general trend and finished in the red.\nSentiments in equities stayed upbeat, owing to the same confluence of factors from US stimulus package, dovish central banks and vaccine roll-outs that have picked up pace. Also, while Wall Street had an off-day on Monday with the Presidents' Day holiday, the futures indicated continued gains as it starts the week on Tuesday, adding to the cheery mood.\nOn the local bourse, turnover stood at 2.69 billion worth S$1.12 billion. Gains were led by DBS, Singtel and Wilmar International.\nComfortDelGro fell one Singapore cent or 0.6 per cent to S$1.57. DBS Group Research issued a \"buy\" rating on the counter with a 12-month target price of S$1.99, saying that a recovery is on the cards and the current price seems \"unjustifiably low\". This followed the land transport operator's FY2020 results, in which it announced a 77 per cent drop in net profit to S$61.8 million from a year ago, as revenue fell 17 per cent to S$3.22 billion owing to pandemic-led lockdowns across the countries where it operates.\nMapletree Logistics Trust (MLT) closed unchanged at S$1.95. MLT manager announced late on Monday that it has acquired five freehold logistics properties in South Korea for 280 billion won (S$336 million).","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"STI.SI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":505,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":389696392,"gmtCreate":1612760557916,"gmtModify":1703764682253,"author":{"id":"3557291191459072","authorId":"3557291191459072","name":"Slmlmlmlmlml","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f06a8d77f57be0f0ccb485e2f711bdd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557291191459072","authorIdStr":"3557291191459072"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting&nbsp;","listText":"Interesting&nbsp;","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389696392","repostId":"1180268693","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1180268693","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612755259,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1180268693?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-08 11:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where Can Investors Hide as a Bubble Inflates?<blockquote>随着泡沫的膨胀，投资者可以躲在哪里？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180268693","media":"Barrons","summary":"Let’s settle one thing up front. We’re clearly witnessing a speculative bubble in the financial mark","content":"<p>Let’s settle one thing up front. We’re clearly witnessing a speculative bubble in the financial markets. This time is no different. This mania will end the same way they all do: in tears.</p><p><blockquote>让我们先解决一件事。我们显然正在目睹金融市场的投机泡沫。这次也不例外。这种狂热将以他们都做的方式结束：在眼泪中。</blockquote></p><p> I started banging the gong in mid-2020 about the imminent risk of financial crisis stemming from three potential causes: a severe market correction, a deteriorating U.S. fiscal position from unsustainable growth in deficits and debt, and the inflation that was likely to follow.</p><p><blockquote>我在2020年年中开始敲响金融危机迫在眉睫的风险，这些风险源于三个潜在原因：严重的市场调整、赤字和债务不可持续增长导致的美国财政状况恶化，以及可能随之而来的通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> At that time, this viewpoint was greeted with a heavy dose of skepticism. Inflationary views were considered fringe. Respected economists were quick to point out the lack of demand for money relative to rapidly expanding supply, slack in the lockdown economy, and prevailing expectations for deflation based on recent history. Wall Street has little incentive to call a market bubble. Fees are made and bonuses paid when optimism, activity and volatility are high, not by predictions of impending doom. The euphorias of bubbles are like the best narcotics—stimulative and somewhat hypnotic. But the bigger the high, the worse the comedown.</p><p><blockquote>当时，这一观点遭到了强烈的怀疑。通货膨胀观点被认为是边缘观点。受人尊敬的经济学家很快指出，相对于快速扩张的供应，货币需求不足，封锁经济疲软，以及基于近期历史的通货紧缩预期。华尔街几乎没有动力去看涨期权市场泡沫。当乐观情绪、活动和波动性很高时，就会收取费用和支付奖金，而不是通过对即将到来的厄运的预测。泡沫带来的快感就像最好的麻醉剂——既刺激又有点催眠。但高点越大，衰退就越严重。</blockquote></p><p> These contrarian views of inflation and market correction have now become mainstream. The warning signs of market mania are evident inBitcoin(up 300% in a year), the deluge ofSPAC IPOs(always a signal of a top), exorbitantP/E ratios, and rapidly rising real estateprices. These, along with retail-driven short squeezes and mini-bubbles, are symptoms of underlying conditions set in motion long ago by a flood of liquidity unleashed by the Federal Reserve. This time is different, however, in one important way. When this bubble bursts, the Fed can no longer prop up the market by lowering interest rates. Real rates, which were about 4% before the global financial crisis, are now below zero almost everywhere.</p><p><blockquote>这些对通胀和市场回调的逆向观点现已成为主流。市场狂热的警告信号在比特币（一年内上涨300%）、SPAC IPO的泛滥（始终是见顶的信号）、过高的市盈率以及快速上涨的房地产价格中显而易见。这些，以及散户驱动的空头挤压和迷你泡沫，都是美联储很久以前释放的大量流动性引发的潜在状况的症状。然而，这一次在一个重要方面有所不同。当这个泡沫破裂时，美联储就无法再通过降低利率来支撑市场。全球金融危机前的实际利率约为4%，现在几乎所有地方都低于零。</blockquote></p><p> The Biden administration is expected to unleash a blue wave of stimulus and other spending. This comes at a time when the revenue base is eroding, and the U.S. is no longer in a sound fiscal position. It is only a matter of time until government struggles to efficiently borrow against a gaping deficit and compounding debt. In 2020 alone, the U.S. government spent $3 trillion on pandemic relief while suffering a $2.1 trilliondecline in national incomefrom crippling lockdowns in our most economically important states, many of which continue today. By the end of fiscal 2020, total U.S. governmentdebtwas $27 trillion, up 20% from 2019 and triple the amount prior to the financial crisis. The Fed has absorbed a lot of this increase. Bond investors are rightly nervous.</p><p><blockquote>预计拜登政府将推出蓝色刺激和其他支出浪潮。这发生在收入基础正在侵蚀、美国财政状况不再良好的时候。政府难以有效地举债应对不断扩大的赤字和不断增加的债务只是时间问题。仅在2020年，美国政府就在疫情救助上花费了3万亿美元，同时由于我们最重要的经济州的严重封锁，国民收入下降了2.1万亿美元，其中许多州至今仍在继续。截至2020财年末，美国政府债务总额为27万亿美元，比2019年增长20%，是金融危机前的三倍。美联储已经吸收了很多这种增长。债券投资者的紧张是理所当然的。</blockquote></p><p> It is no surprise that the Fed has since adopted apro-inflation stance. An unspoken objective is to erode the topsoil from the mountain of U.S. debt at the expense of Americans. Inflation is a hidden tax that will eat away our purchasing power. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff remind us in<i>This Time is Different</i>that throughout history, “the main device for defaulting on government obligations was… debasing the content of coinage. Modern currency presses are just a technologically advanced and more efficient approach to achieving the same end.” They note, “government debt is… often the unifying problem across the wide range of financial crises.”</p><p><blockquote>毫不奇怪，美联储此后采取了支持通胀的立场。一个不言而喻的目标是以美国人为代价侵蚀美国债务堆积如山的表土。通货膨胀是一种隐性税收，会侵蚀我们的购买力。卡门·莱因哈特和肯尼斯·罗格夫提醒我们<i>这次不一样</i>纵观历史，“政府债务违约的主要手段是……降低硬币的含量。现代货币印刷机只是实现同样目的的一种技术先进、效率更高的方法。”他们指出，“政府债务……往往是各种金融危机中的统一问题。”</blockquote></p><p> Prices are now rising in inflation bellwethers such as industrial metals, energy, and food commodities. The dollar haslost85% of its purchasing power since 1970. While a majority of this can be attributed to high inflation in the 1970s, even the supposedly deflationary 21st century has witnessed the erosion of one-third of the value of the dollar since 2000.</p><p><blockquote>工业金属、能源和食品等通胀风向标的价格目前正在上涨。自1970年以来，美元已经失去了85%的购买力。虽然这在很大程度上可以归因于20世纪70年代的高通胀，但即使是所谓的通货紧缩的21世纪，自2000年以来，美元价值也下跌了三分之一。</blockquote></p><p> Rising inflation expectations go a long way in explaining the vertiginous ascent of the equity markets in the face of a partially closed economy with muted growth. As lockdowns and travel restrictions ease, pent-up demand will pressure global supply chains and thus prices. We can expect to see a further acceleration of inflation as early as this spring as economies reopen.</p><p><blockquote>在经济部分封闭、增长乏力的情况下，通胀预期上升在很大程度上解释了股市为何会出现令人眩晕的上涨。随着封锁和旅行限制的放松，被压抑的需求将给全球供应链带来压力，从而给价格带来压力。随着经济重新开放，我们预计最早在今年春天就会看到通胀进一步加速。</blockquote></p><p> Where can one thrive, or at least hide, in this environment? U.S. equity markets are vastly overvalued by any historic measure, but bonds and cash are both danger zones in inflation. While conventional wisdom says to stay invested, it may be a good time to take some chips off of the table. Resist “FOMO,” the fear of missing out. If one has to stay invested, avoid the temptation of high-flying tech and growth equities, which are the most overvalued, in favor of diversifying among recently abandoned dividend-paying value stocks and emerging markets. Inflation-sensitive commodity (food, metals, and energy) producers should perform going forward. Gold has a millennia-long history of serving as a store of value and inflationary hedge, but pays no dividends along the way.</p><p><blockquote>在这种环境下，一个人能在哪里茁壮成长，或者至少能躲藏起来？以任何历史标准衡量，美国股市都被严重高估，但债券和现金都是通胀的危险区。虽然传统观点认为要保持投资，但现在可能是拿出一些筹码的好时机。抵制“FOMO”，害怕错过。如果必须继续投资，请避免估值最高估的高科技股和成长型股票的诱惑，转而在最近被放弃的派息价值股和新兴市场进行多元化投资。对通胀敏感的大宗商品（食品、金属和能源）生产商未来应该会表现出色。黄金作为价值储存和通胀对冲有着数千年的历史，但在此过程中没有支付股息。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Bitcoin similarly earns no yield. Cryptocurrencies have no intrinsic value, and, like fiat currencies, are worth whatever the market happens to believe. When the euphoria wears off, they may be hit hard. Besides, Bitcoin is a stacked game easily manipulated given the high concentration ofownershipby whales.</p><p><blockquote>比特币同样没有收益。加密货币没有内在价值，就像法定货币一样，无论市场相信什么，它都有价值。当兴奋消退时，他们可能会受到重创。此外，鉴于鲸鱼的所有权高度集中，比特币是一个很容易被操纵的堆叠游戏。</blockquote></p><p> Watch out for gearing in investments, whether in securities or real estate. If markets collapse, leverage will rapidly eat into the remaining value. Look for hidden exposure to risk (including inflation) in retirement accounts. Invest in hard assets not correlated to the markets. Stay liquid to exploit the inevitable correction.</p><p><blockquote>无论是证券还是房地产，都要注意投资杠杆。如果市场崩溃，杠杆将迅速侵蚀剩余价值。寻找退休账户中隐藏的风险（包括通货膨胀）。投资与市场无关的硬资产。保持流动性以利用不可避免的修正。</blockquote></p><p> We need to increase the pressure on our elected officials to cut the pork and reopen our economies. Americans want to get back to work. So-called stimulus funding is not getting into the hands of those who need it most. Ultimately, it’s the real economy, not financial markets, that drive growth and prosperity. That requires local businesses open, workers re-engaged, and productive capital investments made.</p><p><blockquote>我们需要加大对民选官员的压力，让他们削减猪肉，重新开放我们的经济。美国人想重返工作岗位。所谓的刺激资金没有到达最需要的人手中。最终，推动增长和繁荣的是实体经济，而不是金融市场。这需要当地企业开放，工人重新参与，并进行生产性资本投资。</blockquote></p><p> This is not doom and gloom. Since the problem is not a banking-sector credit crisis, and the underlying economy remains healthy (albeit weakened), postcorrection recovery may come more quickly and easily than following the financial crisis. While persistent inflation can create a host of problems, it usually supports fuller employment, and both producers and consumers will adapt to a changing price environment. In the meantime, it may be best to stay liquid and wait this one out. As spring follows even the darkest winter, the opportune time will come again.</p><p><blockquote>这不是厄运和黑暗。由于问题不是银行业的信贷危机，而且基础经济仍然健康（尽管有所减弱），调整后的复苏可能比金融危机后更快、更容易。虽然持续的通货膨胀会造成一系列问题，但它通常会支持更充分的就业，生产者和消费者都会适应不断变化的价格环境。与此同时，最好保持流动性，等待这一次结束。即使是最黑暗的冬天也会迎来春天，合适的时机也会再次到来。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where Can Investors Hide as a Bubble Inflates?<blockquote>随着泡沫的膨胀，投资者可以躲在哪里？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere Can Investors Hide as a Bubble Inflates?<blockquote>随着泡沫的膨胀，投资者可以躲在哪里？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-08 11:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Let’s settle one thing up front. We’re clearly witnessing a speculative bubble in the financial markets. This time is no different. This mania will end the same way they all do: in tears.</p><p><blockquote>让我们先解决一件事。我们显然正在目睹金融市场的投机泡沫。这次也不例外。这种狂热将以他们都做的方式结束：在眼泪中。</blockquote></p><p> I started banging the gong in mid-2020 about the imminent risk of financial crisis stemming from three potential causes: a severe market correction, a deteriorating U.S. fiscal position from unsustainable growth in deficits and debt, and the inflation that was likely to follow.</p><p><blockquote>我在2020年年中开始敲响金融危机迫在眉睫的风险，这些风险源于三个潜在原因：严重的市场调整、赤字和债务不可持续增长导致的美国财政状况恶化，以及可能随之而来的通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> At that time, this viewpoint was greeted with a heavy dose of skepticism. Inflationary views were considered fringe. Respected economists were quick to point out the lack of demand for money relative to rapidly expanding supply, slack in the lockdown economy, and prevailing expectations for deflation based on recent history. Wall Street has little incentive to call a market bubble. Fees are made and bonuses paid when optimism, activity and volatility are high, not by predictions of impending doom. The euphorias of bubbles are like the best narcotics—stimulative and somewhat hypnotic. But the bigger the high, the worse the comedown.</p><p><blockquote>当时，这一观点遭到了强烈的怀疑。通货膨胀观点被认为是边缘观点。受人尊敬的经济学家很快指出，相对于快速扩张的供应，货币需求不足，封锁经济疲软，以及基于近期历史的通货紧缩预期。华尔街几乎没有动力去看涨期权市场泡沫。当乐观情绪、活动和波动性很高时，就会收取费用和支付奖金，而不是通过对即将到来的厄运的预测。泡沫带来的快感就像最好的麻醉剂——既刺激又有点催眠。但高点越大，衰退就越严重。</blockquote></p><p> These contrarian views of inflation and market correction have now become mainstream. The warning signs of market mania are evident inBitcoin(up 300% in a year), the deluge ofSPAC IPOs(always a signal of a top), exorbitantP/E ratios, and rapidly rising real estateprices. These, along with retail-driven short squeezes and mini-bubbles, are symptoms of underlying conditions set in motion long ago by a flood of liquidity unleashed by the Federal Reserve. This time is different, however, in one important way. When this bubble bursts, the Fed can no longer prop up the market by lowering interest rates. Real rates, which were about 4% before the global financial crisis, are now below zero almost everywhere.</p><p><blockquote>这些对通胀和市场回调的逆向观点现已成为主流。市场狂热的警告信号在比特币（一年内上涨300%）、SPAC IPO的泛滥（始终是见顶的信号）、过高的市盈率以及快速上涨的房地产价格中显而易见。这些，以及散户驱动的空头挤压和迷你泡沫，都是美联储很久以前释放的大量流动性引发的潜在状况的症状。然而，这一次在一个重要方面有所不同。当这个泡沫破裂时，美联储就无法再通过降低利率来支撑市场。全球金融危机前的实际利率约为4%，现在几乎所有地方都低于零。</blockquote></p><p> The Biden administration is expected to unleash a blue wave of stimulus and other spending. This comes at a time when the revenue base is eroding, and the U.S. is no longer in a sound fiscal position. It is only a matter of time until government struggles to efficiently borrow against a gaping deficit and compounding debt. In 2020 alone, the U.S. government spent $3 trillion on pandemic relief while suffering a $2.1 trilliondecline in national incomefrom crippling lockdowns in our most economically important states, many of which continue today. By the end of fiscal 2020, total U.S. governmentdebtwas $27 trillion, up 20% from 2019 and triple the amount prior to the financial crisis. The Fed has absorbed a lot of this increase. Bond investors are rightly nervous.</p><p><blockquote>预计拜登政府将推出蓝色刺激和其他支出浪潮。这发生在收入基础正在侵蚀、美国财政状况不再良好的时候。政府难以有效地举债应对不断扩大的赤字和不断增加的债务只是时间问题。仅在2020年，美国政府就在疫情救助上花费了3万亿美元，同时由于我们最重要的经济州的严重封锁，国民收入下降了2.1万亿美元，其中许多州至今仍在继续。截至2020财年末，美国政府债务总额为27万亿美元，比2019年增长20%，是金融危机前的三倍。美联储已经吸收了很多这种增长。债券投资者的紧张是理所当然的。</blockquote></p><p> It is no surprise that the Fed has since adopted apro-inflation stance. An unspoken objective is to erode the topsoil from the mountain of U.S. debt at the expense of Americans. Inflation is a hidden tax that will eat away our purchasing power. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff remind us in<i>This Time is Different</i>that throughout history, “the main device for defaulting on government obligations was… debasing the content of coinage. Modern currency presses are just a technologically advanced and more efficient approach to achieving the same end.” They note, “government debt is… often the unifying problem across the wide range of financial crises.”</p><p><blockquote>毫不奇怪，美联储此后采取了支持通胀的立场。一个不言而喻的目标是以美国人为代价侵蚀美国债务堆积如山的表土。通货膨胀是一种隐性税收，会侵蚀我们的购买力。卡门·莱因哈特和肯尼斯·罗格夫提醒我们<i>这次不一样</i>纵观历史，“政府债务违约的主要手段是……降低硬币的含量。现代货币印刷机只是实现同样目的的一种技术先进、效率更高的方法。”他们指出，“政府债务……往往是各种金融危机中的统一问题。”</blockquote></p><p> Prices are now rising in inflation bellwethers such as industrial metals, energy, and food commodities. The dollar haslost85% of its purchasing power since 1970. While a majority of this can be attributed to high inflation in the 1970s, even the supposedly deflationary 21st century has witnessed the erosion of one-third of the value of the dollar since 2000.</p><p><blockquote>工业金属、能源和食品等通胀风向标的价格目前正在上涨。自1970年以来，美元已经失去了85%的购买力。虽然这在很大程度上可以归因于20世纪70年代的高通胀，但即使是所谓的通货紧缩的21世纪，自2000年以来，美元价值也下跌了三分之一。</blockquote></p><p> Rising inflation expectations go a long way in explaining the vertiginous ascent of the equity markets in the face of a partially closed economy with muted growth. As lockdowns and travel restrictions ease, pent-up demand will pressure global supply chains and thus prices. We can expect to see a further acceleration of inflation as early as this spring as economies reopen.</p><p><blockquote>在经济部分封闭、增长乏力的情况下，通胀预期上升在很大程度上解释了股市为何会出现令人眩晕的上涨。随着封锁和旅行限制的放松，被压抑的需求将给全球供应链带来压力，从而给价格带来压力。随着经济重新开放，我们预计最早在今年春天就会看到通胀进一步加速。</blockquote></p><p> Where can one thrive, or at least hide, in this environment? U.S. equity markets are vastly overvalued by any historic measure, but bonds and cash are both danger zones in inflation. While conventional wisdom says to stay invested, it may be a good time to take some chips off of the table. Resist “FOMO,” the fear of missing out. If one has to stay invested, avoid the temptation of high-flying tech and growth equities, which are the most overvalued, in favor of diversifying among recently abandoned dividend-paying value stocks and emerging markets. Inflation-sensitive commodity (food, metals, and energy) producers should perform going forward. Gold has a millennia-long history of serving as a store of value and inflationary hedge, but pays no dividends along the way.</p><p><blockquote>在这种环境下，一个人能在哪里茁壮成长，或者至少能躲藏起来？以任何历史标准衡量，美国股市都被严重高估，但债券和现金都是通胀的危险区。虽然传统观点认为要保持投资，但现在可能是拿出一些筹码的好时机。抵制“FOMO”，害怕错过。如果必须继续投资，请避免估值最高估的高科技股和成长型股票的诱惑，转而在最近被放弃的派息价值股和新兴市场进行多元化投资。对通胀敏感的大宗商品（食品、金属和能源）生产商未来应该会表现出色。黄金作为价值储存和通胀对冲有着数千年的历史，但在此过程中没有支付股息。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Bitcoin similarly earns no yield. Cryptocurrencies have no intrinsic value, and, like fiat currencies, are worth whatever the market happens to believe. When the euphoria wears off, they may be hit hard. Besides, Bitcoin is a stacked game easily manipulated given the high concentration ofownershipby whales.</p><p><blockquote>比特币同样没有收益。加密货币没有内在价值，就像法定货币一样，无论市场相信什么，它都有价值。当兴奋消退时，他们可能会受到重创。此外，鉴于鲸鱼的所有权高度集中，比特币是一个很容易被操纵的堆叠游戏。</blockquote></p><p> Watch out for gearing in investments, whether in securities or real estate. If markets collapse, leverage will rapidly eat into the remaining value. Look for hidden exposure to risk (including inflation) in retirement accounts. Invest in hard assets not correlated to the markets. Stay liquid to exploit the inevitable correction.</p><p><blockquote>无论是证券还是房地产，都要注意投资杠杆。如果市场崩溃，杠杆将迅速侵蚀剩余价值。寻找退休账户中隐藏的风险（包括通货膨胀）。投资与市场无关的硬资产。保持流动性以利用不可避免的修正。</blockquote></p><p> We need to increase the pressure on our elected officials to cut the pork and reopen our economies. Americans want to get back to work. So-called stimulus funding is not getting into the hands of those who need it most. Ultimately, it’s the real economy, not financial markets, that drive growth and prosperity. That requires local businesses open, workers re-engaged, and productive capital investments made.</p><p><blockquote>我们需要加大对民选官员的压力，让他们削减猪肉，重新开放我们的经济。美国人想重返工作岗位。所谓的刺激资金没有到达最需要的人手中。最终，推动增长和繁荣的是实体经济，而不是金融市场。这需要当地企业开放，工人重新参与，并进行生产性资本投资。</blockquote></p><p> This is not doom and gloom. Since the problem is not a banking-sector credit crisis, and the underlying economy remains healthy (albeit weakened), postcorrection recovery may come more quickly and easily than following the financial crisis. While persistent inflation can create a host of problems, it usually supports fuller employment, and both producers and consumers will adapt to a changing price environment. In the meantime, it may be best to stay liquid and wait this one out. As spring follows even the darkest winter, the opportune time will come again.</p><p><blockquote>这不是厄运和黑暗。由于问题不是银行业的信贷危机，而且基础经济仍然健康（尽管有所减弱），调整后的复苏可能比金融危机后更快、更容易。虽然持续的通货膨胀会造成一系列问题，但它通常会支持更充分的就业，生产者和消费者都会适应不断变化的价格环境。与此同时，最好保持流动性，等待这一次结束。即使是最黑暗的冬天也会迎来春天，合适的时机也会再次到来。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/a-bubble-is-inflating-where-can-investors-hide-51612540675?mod=hp_COMMENTARY_2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/a-bubble-is-inflating-where-can-investors-hide-51612540675?mod=hp_COMMENTARY_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180268693","content_text":"Let’s settle one thing up front. We’re clearly witnessing a speculative bubble in the financial markets. This time is no different. This mania will end the same way they all do: in tears.\nI started banging the gong in mid-2020 about the imminent risk of financial crisis stemming from three potential causes: a severe market correction, a deteriorating U.S. fiscal position from unsustainable growth in deficits and debt, and the inflation that was likely to follow.\nAt that time, this viewpoint was greeted with a heavy dose of skepticism. Inflationary views were considered fringe. Respected economists were quick to point out the lack of demand for money relative to rapidly expanding supply, slack in the lockdown economy, and prevailing expectations for deflation based on recent history. Wall Street has little incentive to call a market bubble. Fees are made and bonuses paid when optimism, activity and volatility are high, not by predictions of impending doom. The euphorias of bubbles are like the best narcotics—stimulative and somewhat hypnotic. But the bigger the high, the worse the comedown.\nThese contrarian views of inflation and market correction have now become mainstream. The warning signs of market mania are evident inBitcoin(up 300% in a year), the deluge ofSPAC IPOs(always a signal of a top), exorbitantP/E ratios, and rapidly rising real estateprices. These, along with retail-driven short squeezes and mini-bubbles, are symptoms of underlying conditions set in motion long ago by a flood of liquidity unleashed by the Federal Reserve. This time is different, however, in one important way. When this bubble bursts, the Fed can no longer prop up the market by lowering interest rates. Real rates, which were about 4% before the global financial crisis, are now below zero almost everywhere.\nThe Biden administration is expected to unleash a blue wave of stimulus and other spending. This comes at a time when the revenue base is eroding, and the U.S. is no longer in a sound fiscal position. It is only a matter of time until government struggles to efficiently borrow against a gaping deficit and compounding debt. In 2020 alone, the U.S. government spent $3 trillion on pandemic relief while suffering a $2.1 trilliondecline in national incomefrom crippling lockdowns in our most economically important states, many of which continue today. By the end of fiscal 2020, total U.S. governmentdebtwas $27 trillion, up 20% from 2019 and triple the amount prior to the financial crisis. The Fed has absorbed a lot of this increase. Bond investors are rightly nervous.\nIt is no surprise that the Fed has since adopted apro-inflation stance. An unspoken objective is to erode the topsoil from the mountain of U.S. debt at the expense of Americans. Inflation is a hidden tax that will eat away our purchasing power. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff remind us inThis Time is Differentthat throughout history, “the main device for defaulting on government obligations was… debasing the content of coinage. Modern currency presses are just a technologically advanced and more efficient approach to achieving the same end.” They note, “government debt is… often the unifying problem across the wide range of financial crises.”\nPrices are now rising in inflation bellwethers such as industrial metals, energy, and food commodities. The dollar haslost85% of its purchasing power since 1970. While a majority of this can be attributed to high inflation in the 1970s, even the supposedly deflationary 21st century has witnessed the erosion of one-third of the value of the dollar since 2000.\nRising inflation expectations go a long way in explaining the vertiginous ascent of the equity markets in the face of a partially closed economy with muted growth. As lockdowns and travel restrictions ease, pent-up demand will pressure global supply chains and thus prices. We can expect to see a further acceleration of inflation as early as this spring as economies reopen.\nWhere can one thrive, or at least hide, in this environment? U.S. equity markets are vastly overvalued by any historic measure, but bonds and cash are both danger zones in inflation. While conventional wisdom says to stay invested, it may be a good time to take some chips off of the table. Resist “FOMO,” the fear of missing out. If one has to stay invested, avoid the temptation of high-flying tech and growth equities, which are the most overvalued, in favor of diversifying among recently abandoned dividend-paying value stocks and emerging markets. Inflation-sensitive commodity (food, metals, and energy) producers should perform going forward. Gold has a millennia-long history of serving as a store of value and inflationary hedge, but pays no dividends along the way.\nBitcoin similarly earns no yield. Cryptocurrencies have no intrinsic value, and, like fiat currencies, are worth whatever the market happens to believe. When the euphoria wears off, they may be hit hard. Besides, Bitcoin is a stacked game easily manipulated given the high concentration ofownershipby whales.\nWatch out for gearing in investments, whether in securities or real estate. If markets collapse, leverage will rapidly eat into the remaining value. Look for hidden exposure to risk (including inflation) in retirement accounts. Invest in hard assets not correlated to the markets. Stay liquid to exploit the inevitable correction.\nWe need to increase the pressure on our elected officials to cut the pork and reopen our economies. Americans want to get back to work. So-called stimulus funding is not getting into the hands of those who need it most. Ultimately, it’s the real economy, not financial markets, that drive growth and prosperity. That requires local businesses open, workers re-engaged, and productive capital investments made.\nThis is not doom and gloom. Since the problem is not a banking-sector credit crisis, and the underlying economy remains healthy (albeit weakened), postcorrection recovery may come more quickly and easily than following the financial crisis. While persistent inflation can create a host of problems, it usually supports fuller employment, and both producers and consumers will adapt to a changing price environment. In the meantime, it may be best to stay liquid and wait this one out. As spring follows even the darkest winter, the opportune time will come again.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":417,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":380569755,"gmtCreate":1612555938477,"gmtModify":1703763629803,"author":{"id":"3557291191459072","authorId":"3557291191459072","name":"Slmlmlmlmlml","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f06a8d77f57be0f0ccb485e2f711bdd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557291191459072","authorIdStr":"3557291191459072"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/380569755","repostId":"2109727286","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":160,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}